WEBVTT - How the Pandemic Is Impacting Parenting

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Jason Kelly. We're right here every day bringing you the

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<v Speaker 1>latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics,

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<v Speaker 1>all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors.

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<v Speaker 1>And of course Carol that's part of a team of

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<v Speaker 1>twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts the more than a

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and twenty countries and Jason. You can download Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, blo Bloomberg dot com. You

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<v Speaker 1>can also listen to our radio show at two pm

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<v Speaker 1>Eastern on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. Jina Martin Adams back

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<v Speaker 1>with us. She is Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Equity Strategists, alongside

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<v Speaker 1>Dave Wilson, Bloomberg Stock Editor, of course, the author of

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<v Speaker 1>the chart and Stock of the Day. Dave, let me

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<v Speaker 1>start briefly with you, what's the most important thing we

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<v Speaker 1>need to understand about this market today. Well, it looks

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<v Speaker 1>like the headline about the travel is getting at least

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit of attention from stock investors. The S

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<v Speaker 1>and P five is at its higher the day. Now

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<v Speaker 1>you're talking up three tents and or percent. So that's

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<v Speaker 1>just the kind of day it's been, not a whole

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<v Speaker 1>lot of direction. And you look at the eleven main

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<v Speaker 1>industry groups, you see communications services as a standout, and

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<v Speaker 1>that's really Facebook in large measures. Shares are up six

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<v Speaker 1>percent at the moment, so people are getting a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit excited about that company. And then beyond that, Viacom

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<v Speaker 1>CVS they had results out and they went over pretty well,

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<v Speaker 1>unlike the figures that we saw from some of the

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<v Speaker 1>company's media appears, uh Fox and Discovery Communications notably, those

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<v Speaker 1>shares were down yesterday in the wake of their results.

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<v Speaker 1>Viacom getting a much better reception. The shares are up

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<v Speaker 1>three the moment, and from what I understand to the

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<v Speaker 1>airlines are moving as well. On that news. American Airlines

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<v Speaker 1>now up about four percent UM, so we're definitely seeing

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<v Speaker 1>some reaction, no doubt about it, in that group as well.

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<v Speaker 1>Delta's up about two point three percent. Hey, Gina, come

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<v Speaker 1>on in on this conversation. I am curious to get

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<v Speaker 1>your perspective because I feel like um increasingly so much

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<v Speaker 1>of the Wall Street investment community is commenting on things

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<v Speaker 1>like the elections, commenting on a vaccine approval and what

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<v Speaker 1>it could mean for the financial markets. What's your analysis

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<v Speaker 1>on this? Those are the things that are likely driving stacks.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's it's odd to be in the midst

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<v Speaker 1>of earning season, the second heaviest reporting week in earning season,

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<v Speaker 1>and see reactions to earnings as muted as they've seen

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<v Speaker 1>so far. When we look at the earning season as

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<v Speaker 1>a whole, we've had more than of SMP companies b

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<v Speaker 1>reporting day earnings estimate targets. That's the best we've seen

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<v Speaker 1>on record, our record since and yet the one day

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<v Speaker 1>price action in excess of the index in response to

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<v Speaker 1>those earning speeds is about half of average. So it

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<v Speaker 1>does seem that, you know, even though we're beating expectations,

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<v Speaker 1>even though we've honestly seen forward estimates start to move

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<v Speaker 1>higher as well as we clearly had baked in maybe

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<v Speaker 1>a little too much economic constraint in the earnings outlook,

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<v Speaker 1>it doesn't seem that earnings are actually driving driving stocks. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it fits and starts that's been the case,

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<v Speaker 1>But I do think that that's the reason why many

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<v Speaker 1>analysts have started to focus on things like the upcoming

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<v Speaker 1>election focus on the perspentage chances of getting a vaccine

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<v Speaker 1>anytime soon. Uh. Certainly the fiscal policy efforts underway in

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<v Speaker 1>Washington or are a huge question mark, but the market

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<v Speaker 1>does seem to be anticipating some resolution to that in

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<v Speaker 1>the positive sometime soon. So there does appear to be

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of other things that are really driving stocks

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<v Speaker 1>right now, even though we're in the midst of a

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<v Speaker 1>really important earning season. Frank right right, Well, and this

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<v Speaker 1>data dump that we're seeing, I mean, this is typical.

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<v Speaker 1>It was all scheduled around. Uh. Employment also seems to

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<v Speaker 1>be very front of mind. You. Yeah, I think that

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<v Speaker 1>the economic numbers are are interesting as well, especially the

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<v Speaker 1>initial claims numbers. I'm not surprised to see the market

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<v Speaker 1>kind of thinking, well, what do we really make of

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<v Speaker 1>these initial claims numbers in the midst of all this

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<v Speaker 1>turmoil around fiscal policy claims? So is that merely just

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<v Speaker 1>sort of gaming the system with respect to the fiscal

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<v Speaker 1>policy expiration or the the extended unemployment claims expiration. And

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<v Speaker 1>I do think to the markets sort of waffling around

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<v Speaker 1>here trying to figure out, you know, where do we

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<v Speaker 1>really go from here? And frankly, for the last couple

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<v Speaker 1>of months, we've we've had to price in better economic data.

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<v Speaker 1>So the sort of the impetus that the economic data

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<v Speaker 1>is able to give the market at this stage, you

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<v Speaker 1>have to have a really, really strong be to expectation

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<v Speaker 1>in order for the market to really absorb that and

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<v Speaker 1>move higher. All right, Jina Martin Adams, thank you so much,

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<v Speaker 1>Chief Equity Strategies for Boom Re Intelligence. This is the

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<v Speaker 1>busiest time of the quarter for you. We know because

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<v Speaker 1>of all those earnings that you mentioned, Because regardless of

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<v Speaker 1>whether investors are swinging one way or the other, you

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<v Speaker 1>guys are doing a huge amount of work on it.

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<v Speaker 1>So we really appreciate you taking sometime. Dave Wilson are

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<v Speaker 1>thanks to you as well. Looking forward to the chart

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<v Speaker 1>of the day, I've been looking at it, Carolin, trying

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<v Speaker 1>to figure out like that there's a king element to it.

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<v Speaker 1>So it could it be a Tom Petty situation, could

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<v Speaker 1>be Elvis? Could it be Elvis. We're gonna see, We're

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<v Speaker 1>going to see, could it be the Lion King? Continue?

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<v Speaker 1>You are Disney exactly. We are a little Disney obsessed

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<v Speaker 1>these days, and by we I mean me. You're listening

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<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly

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<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio. I gotta say, Jason and I always

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<v Speaker 1>look forward to this next guest because he's definitely one

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<v Speaker 1>of the voices we look forward to when it comes

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<v Speaker 1>to talking about COVID. Nineteam Back with Us is Dr

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<v Speaker 1>William Hazeltine. He is chairman and president of Access Health International.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a nonprofit think tape. It's all about improving access

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<v Speaker 1>to high quality and affordable health care for people everywhere.

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<v Speaker 1>He also has this great living e book that came

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<v Speaker 1>out this year. It's written to address questions about the

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<v Speaker 1>virus from the perspective of different age groups. It's living

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<v Speaker 1>because it's constantly being updated with new information. It's called

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<v Speaker 1>a Family Guide to COVID. And that our Hazeltine joining

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<v Speaker 1>us once again and on the phone. Um, nice to

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<v Speaker 1>have you back with us. Um, where should we start? Like,

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<v Speaker 1>tell me what you think is most important when we

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<v Speaker 1>look at what's going on with the virus in the

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<v Speaker 1>US globally and also the race to find some treatments

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<v Speaker 1>and a cure, not a cure, bit a vaccine. Well

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<v Speaker 1>that's a lot. Thank you. Very much. And let me

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<v Speaker 1>mention that a new book, a new living e book

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<v Speaker 1>has just arrived. It will be up later today. It's

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<v Speaker 1>a COVID um. I got a COVID guide to school,

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<v Speaker 1>back to school, a COVID Guide to back to school.

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<v Speaker 1>And uh I mentioned it because that is the topic

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<v Speaker 1>on Americans minds. Every parent and I'm a grandparent, and

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<v Speaker 1>grandparents are absolutely upset, concerned, worried about what to do

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<v Speaker 1>with their children going back to school. The preschoolers, the

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<v Speaker 1>K through six and the sixth through twelve, and all

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<v Speaker 1>those are very difficult in different issues. Not to mention

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<v Speaker 1>college aid students too. And the shocking thing is is

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<v Speaker 1>that we don't have guidance nationally and we don't have

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<v Speaker 1>any consistent way of thinking about it. So what I've

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<v Speaker 1>tried to do is think through how to give people

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<v Speaker 1>just the basics for how to make a decision. We

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<v Speaker 1>just don't have that. It's it's really shocking. The CDC

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't give any good guidance. I've given you something that

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<v Speaker 1>really surprised me. Our National Academy of Sciences, which is

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<v Speaker 1>a National Academy of Medicine, of engineering. Every academy that

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<v Speaker 1>we've got put together a panel. They looked at it,

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<v Speaker 1>and the most shocking thing about that report, as they said,

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<v Speaker 1>we just don't know and we don't have guidance about

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<v Speaker 1>what to do. That was our national Academy. It is

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<v Speaker 1>really upset it. And so what's the first what's the

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<v Speaker 1>first couple of questions we should be asking as parents?

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<v Speaker 1>Bill Well, I think the way to look at it

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<v Speaker 1>is is to try to figure out what your risk is.

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<v Speaker 1>And the first ratification for risk is how much infection?

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<v Speaker 1>How much? How likely or do you run into somebody

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<v Speaker 1>who's contagious. That's you know, people say transmission, it's really contagious.

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<v Speaker 1>That's the word you should use. And how likely are

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<v Speaker 1>you going to run into you or your child going

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<v Speaker 1>to run into somebody contagious. And we give a guideline

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<v Speaker 1>whether you're in green, yellow, orange, or red by how

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<v Speaker 1>many people for a hundred thousand or in your zip

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<v Speaker 1>code and the zip codes that they come from to

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<v Speaker 1>work in your school, and that gives you a guideline

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<v Speaker 1>of whether you're in a hurricane you should stay home

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<v Speaker 1>in the basement, whether you're in a thunderstorm and you

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<v Speaker 1>can stay home and not go out of the rain

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<v Speaker 1>storm if you go out, if you're heavily equipped, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>or it's a light rain and you really have to

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<v Speaker 1>know where you're going and how well you'll be protected,

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<v Speaker 1>or if you were lucky enough and there's nowhere in

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<v Speaker 1>the country, we're really lucky enough. You have to be

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<v Speaker 1>on a sunny day. If you're on a sunny day,

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<v Speaker 1>And so that's the first thing. The second thing is

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<v Speaker 1>know your personal risk. Aren't there any health issues? First

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<v Speaker 1>of all, your child has like diabetes, like serious asthma,

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<v Speaker 1>like obesity, or that you have that the child brings

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<v Speaker 1>it back, or anybody living with you, like your parents,

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<v Speaker 1>or they're grand the child's grandparents. And the third and

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<v Speaker 1>this is a lot harder to judge what that school

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<v Speaker 1>is doing. And for that you as a parent have

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<v Speaker 1>to take the initiative and go out and look at

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<v Speaker 1>what that school is doing. Do you really have confidence

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<v Speaker 1>in the people there? What is the plant like is

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<v Speaker 1>an old, broken down facility as a brand new facility.

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<v Speaker 1>What's the are handling like? What are they telling you?

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<v Speaker 1>Are they dividing the kids up into small groups? Do

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<v Speaker 1>they have face mass protection? Do they separate the children adequately?

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<v Speaker 1>Those are things you as a parent have a responsibility

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<v Speaker 1>to do before you said, you're killed out there, because

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<v Speaker 1>no matter what you're hearing from national news, kids do

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<v Speaker 1>get infected. There's something that else that I think we

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<v Speaker 1>have to demystify about the virus. This is a cold virus.

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<v Speaker 1>It does a lot more damage than most cold viruses.

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<v Speaker 1>But it's just like the colds you get every season.

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<v Speaker 1>In fact, one third of the colds you get a coronaviruses.

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<v Speaker 1>We know how you get a cold. You send your

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<v Speaker 1>kid to school when it comes back with a cold.

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<v Speaker 1>That's not new. This is and one of those colds,

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<v Speaker 1>one of the three colds you get every year, is

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<v Speaker 1>a coronavirus called So that's I think that's basically the

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<v Speaker 1>story of this book is just trying to give people

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<v Speaker 1>simple guidance of how to imagine what their risk is

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<v Speaker 1>and then if the risk is too high, you just

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<v Speaker 1>don't send your kid to school. Right you are listening

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<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Business Week, Jason Kelly, Carol Master. Let's get

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<v Speaker 1>right back to our conversation with Dr William Haseltine. He

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<v Speaker 1>is chairing president of Access Health International, author of a

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<v Speaker 1>couple living e books. They are out there and being

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<v Speaker 1>updated practically hour by hour, it feels like because that's

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<v Speaker 1>how fast this is moving to your point. Carol One

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<v Speaker 1>is a Family Guide to COVID Questions and Answers for parents, grandparents,

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<v Speaker 1>and children, and newly released as of today, a COVID

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<v Speaker 1>Back to School Guide Questions and Answers for parents and students. So, Bill,

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<v Speaker 1>we could talk all day about back to school, but

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<v Speaker 1>I do want to ask you about, you know, maybe

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<v Speaker 1>back to work if I can, because these are intertwined.

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<v Speaker 1>Of course, we need kids to go back to school,

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<v Speaker 1>we need them to be learning in some form or fashion.

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<v Speaker 1>But what have you learned is you talk to people

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<v Speaker 1>about what it's going to take for people to feel

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<v Speaker 1>good about going back to the office. You know, it's

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<v Speaker 1>really surprising that it's almost exactly the same questions that

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<v Speaker 1>you would ask about sending of your kid to school.

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<v Speaker 1>You're more concerned about the kid because you think you

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<v Speaker 1>yourself have more control, but in fact, when you really

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<v Speaker 1>think about it, you really don't have control of whom

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<v Speaker 1>you meet. You have control of what you can do

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<v Speaker 1>to protect yourself, but you don't know who that other

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<v Speaker 1>person is, and therefore the same kind of rules apply,

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<v Speaker 1>which is how much is the infection in your area,

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<v Speaker 1>what is your personal risk and the risk of those

0:12:32.200 --> 0:12:35.640
<v Speaker 1>you live with, and then how much is your business

0:12:36.280 --> 0:12:40.200
<v Speaker 1>doing what it must do given the conditions that there is.

0:12:40.880 --> 0:12:45.160
<v Speaker 1>I would say there's one area that is driving this epidemic.

0:12:45.200 --> 0:12:47.160
<v Speaker 1>There is three or four, but one that I'd like

0:12:47.240 --> 0:12:49.319
<v Speaker 1>to focus on for just a minute. Is there a

0:12:49.400 --> 0:12:51.280
<v Speaker 1>lot of people who have to go to work, either

0:12:51.320 --> 0:12:55.720
<v Speaker 1>their essential workers or they don't. Can't put food on

0:12:55.720 --> 0:13:00.199
<v Speaker 1>the table if they don't go to work, and they

0:13:00.200 --> 0:13:02.520
<v Speaker 1>don't have that choice of making the decision that you

0:13:02.640 --> 0:13:04.600
<v Speaker 1>or I might have about I'm going to stay home,

0:13:04.679 --> 0:13:06.040
<v Speaker 1>I'm not going to go to work, or have to

0:13:06.080 --> 0:13:09.240
<v Speaker 1>do this. For those people, it's so important to make

0:13:09.280 --> 0:13:13.080
<v Speaker 1>sure their work environment is safe. That's the responsibility of

0:13:13.080 --> 0:13:16.480
<v Speaker 1>the organization that they work for to make sure that

0:13:16.559 --> 0:13:19.440
<v Speaker 1>the people that have to work there are safe and

0:13:19.520 --> 0:13:24.240
<v Speaker 1>that is enforced. I think uh, let's put it say,

0:13:24.520 --> 0:13:28.360
<v Speaker 1>uh irreproducible across the country. There are some places that

0:13:28.400 --> 0:13:30.600
<v Speaker 1>are going to be good about that and other places

0:13:30.600 --> 0:13:33.520
<v Speaker 1>that aren't, and that is going to keep driving the infection.

0:13:33.559 --> 0:13:36.720
<v Speaker 1>It's on all of us to put the pressure on

0:13:36.760 --> 0:13:42.880
<v Speaker 1>our local governments to make sure that all workplaces are safe,

0:13:43.080 --> 0:13:46.200
<v Speaker 1>even those places where people have to go to work,

0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:50.960
<v Speaker 1>like the fire department, despite the fact that there is

0:13:51.000 --> 0:13:54.480
<v Speaker 1>an epidemic raging. So that's something we all have to

0:13:54.520 --> 0:14:00.880
<v Speaker 1>work with because it's protecting ourselves. Protecting them is protecting us. Yeah,

0:14:00.920 --> 0:14:02.800
<v Speaker 1>it goes back to I feel like Bill such a

0:14:02.840 --> 0:14:06.040
<v Speaker 1>big thing that I guess maybe we're all realizing the

0:14:06.040 --> 0:14:09.840
<v Speaker 1>importance of community. Right. It's not just about us as individuals,

0:14:09.840 --> 0:14:13.400
<v Speaker 1>but it's about taking care of really our community at large,

0:14:13.520 --> 0:14:15.800
<v Speaker 1>and that's what we need to be thinking about. I

0:14:15.880 --> 0:14:18.240
<v Speaker 1>have to ask you, though, I am still kind of

0:14:18.280 --> 0:14:20.800
<v Speaker 1>struck by Governor Cuomo on Monday. I was away for

0:14:20.840 --> 0:14:24.240
<v Speaker 1>a week, came back and he was very strident, very critical,

0:14:24.440 --> 0:14:28.280
<v Speaker 1>talking about the potential of basically the federal governments. You

0:14:28.320 --> 0:14:29.640
<v Speaker 1>need to come out and say we made a mistake,

0:14:29.720 --> 0:14:31.240
<v Speaker 1>we need to do a redo, we need to shut

0:14:31.280 --> 0:14:34.600
<v Speaker 1>down again. Do you would you be in favor of

0:14:34.760 --> 0:14:37.920
<v Speaker 1>shutting down the country as a whole, like we saw

0:14:37.920 --> 0:14:41.240
<v Speaker 1>in other countries where they have seemed to get ahead

0:14:41.240 --> 0:14:43.440
<v Speaker 1>of the virus better than the US. Would you be

0:14:43.480 --> 0:14:46.360
<v Speaker 1>in favor of that. I'm not in favor of shotting

0:14:46.400 --> 0:14:48.600
<v Speaker 1>down the whole country, but I would be in favor

0:14:48.600 --> 0:14:52.040
<v Speaker 1>of showing a place like Houston and most of Texas down,

0:14:52.160 --> 0:14:55.840
<v Speaker 1>or most of Florida town, or most of California Lesa

0:14:55.920 --> 0:14:59.040
<v Speaker 1>southern half of California town. You have to be aware

0:14:59.040 --> 0:15:02.840
<v Speaker 1>of what's going on, and if you aren't in control,

0:15:03.040 --> 0:15:07.600
<v Speaker 1>which we're not in control of rising epidemics around the country,

0:15:07.840 --> 0:15:11.240
<v Speaker 1>you've got to shut things down for five to six weeks.

0:15:11.240 --> 0:15:14.080
<v Speaker 1>But that's not enough. You have to take a leaf

0:15:14.200 --> 0:15:16.920
<v Speaker 1>out of what we learned from the Chinese. You know,

0:15:17.400 --> 0:15:20.680
<v Speaker 1>when there are sixty thousand people a day being infected

0:15:20.680 --> 0:15:24.480
<v Speaker 1>in America, there are fifty people a day being infected

0:15:24.480 --> 0:15:28.960
<v Speaker 1>in China. Let me say that again, sixty thousand Americans

0:15:29.120 --> 0:15:34.120
<v Speaker 1>get infected on some days and fifty people in China.

0:15:34.600 --> 0:15:38.960
<v Speaker 1>It can be done, and it's not just shutting things down.

0:15:39.640 --> 0:15:44.600
<v Speaker 1>It's making sure you contact Grace and then mandatory isolation

0:15:45.080 --> 0:15:50.400
<v Speaker 1>for all those exposed, not even infected exposed. How to

0:15:50.400 --> 0:15:56.040
<v Speaker 1>do it. It's not magic. We don't do anything like that,

0:15:56.160 --> 0:15:58.960
<v Speaker 1>nor does any European country. And that's why when you

0:15:59.000 --> 0:16:02.240
<v Speaker 1>look at Europe, they haven't controlled this. You can blow

0:16:02.280 --> 0:16:05.400
<v Speaker 1>out of control, just like it did here at any

0:16:05.440 --> 0:16:10.120
<v Speaker 1>moment all throughout all right, Well, always good to catch

0:16:10.160 --> 0:16:12.840
<v Speaker 1>up with you, and you're totally right. We're learning more

0:16:12.880 --> 0:16:16.840
<v Speaker 1>and there are some simpler solutions to this, UH, and

0:16:17.160 --> 0:16:19.160
<v Speaker 1>a lot of it comes down to how we're acting

0:16:19.400 --> 0:16:22.080
<v Speaker 1>with each other and as a community, as you said, Carol.

0:16:22.280 --> 0:16:25.360
<v Speaker 1>Dr William Hasl teen, Chair President of Access Health International.

0:16:25.480 --> 0:16:27.320
<v Speaker 1>Check out his books, a COVID Back to School Guide,

0:16:27.320 --> 0:16:30.600
<v Speaker 1>it's out today, Questions and answers for parents and students.

0:16:30.640 --> 0:16:34.160
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and

0:16:34.280 --> 0:16:38.720
<v Speaker 1>Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. This is a story that

0:16:38.800 --> 0:16:43.600
<v Speaker 1>brings so many things that we're interested in together, Carol,

0:16:43.800 --> 0:16:49.120
<v Speaker 1>totally state of healthcare, private equity, big money, and so

0:16:49.160 --> 0:16:52.280
<v Speaker 1>many more and not the least of which great journalism

0:16:52.280 --> 0:16:54.320
<v Speaker 1>and Bloomberg Business Week we're happy to have with us.

0:16:54.400 --> 0:16:58.440
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg News Senior editor John Heckinger on this story along

0:16:58.520 --> 0:17:02.080
<v Speaker 1>with Bloomberg Business Week under Joel Weber. So Joel t

0:17:02.280 --> 0:17:06.600
<v Speaker 1>this up for us, so John Um and Sabrina Vener,

0:17:07.520 --> 0:17:10.920
<v Speaker 1>who wrote the story together. Um UH serviced a little

0:17:10.920 --> 0:17:14.879
<v Speaker 1>bit ago UM about a network of hospitals for profit

0:17:14.960 --> 0:17:20.600
<v Speaker 1>hospitals UH primarily in Massachusetts called Steward and when UM

0:17:20.640 --> 0:17:22.679
<v Speaker 1>they kind of started doing some reporting. But it was

0:17:22.840 --> 0:17:24.520
<v Speaker 1>kind of interesting to me for a lot of the

0:17:24.520 --> 0:17:29.480
<v Speaker 1>reasons that you said, Jason, the one big one being that, um,

0:17:29.520 --> 0:17:34.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, pretty noteworthy UM uh private equity shop a

0:17:34.840 --> 0:17:38.920
<v Speaker 1>Cerberusts got involved about a decade ago and what what

0:17:38.920 --> 0:17:42.800
<v Speaker 1>what what the hospitals look like before and after? That

0:17:42.960 --> 0:17:45.800
<v Speaker 1>has been pretty remarkable. And obviously the backdrop to all

0:17:45.840 --> 0:17:49.560
<v Speaker 1>of this is there's a pandemic raging UM and John,

0:17:49.640 --> 0:17:54.080
<v Speaker 1>so what what what did your reporting reveal? Well, as

0:17:54.160 --> 0:17:56.720
<v Speaker 1>as he was saying, these hospitals were struggling back in

0:17:56.760 --> 0:17:59.800
<v Speaker 1>two thousand and ten when Cerberus, the private equity for

0:18:00.080 --> 0:18:03.720
<v Speaker 1>bought them UM and what we what we found is

0:18:03.760 --> 0:18:08.399
<v Speaker 1>that UM, the the for profit chain, did invest a

0:18:08.440 --> 0:18:11.879
<v Speaker 1>fair amount of money and sort of sprucing up the hospitals,

0:18:11.880 --> 0:18:14.120
<v Speaker 1>but that many of the workers say that they were

0:18:14.200 --> 0:18:18.800
<v Speaker 1>kind of short changed on staffing and maintenance and UM

0:18:19.640 --> 0:18:23.440
<v Speaker 1>so once the pandemic hit, UM, they felt like they were,

0:18:23.480 --> 0:18:26.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, even more exposed because they were just so

0:18:26.320 --> 0:18:30.440
<v Speaker 1>so many patients and not enough nurses. UM. So we

0:18:30.440 --> 0:18:38.399
<v Speaker 1>talked about the mouth role. That's right, Well, the story

0:18:38.440 --> 0:18:42.560
<v Speaker 1>begins on morning of May tenth, when a mouse wandered

0:18:42.560 --> 0:18:45.920
<v Speaker 1>into a transformer and shorted out the electricity and left

0:18:46.119 --> 0:18:49.439
<v Speaker 1>UM a building largely in the dark, and the nurses

0:18:49.480 --> 0:18:52.600
<v Speaker 1>it kind of represented kind of the sort of penny

0:18:52.640 --> 0:18:57.080
<v Speaker 1>pinching ways of the company that had bought their beloved

0:18:57.080 --> 0:19:01.480
<v Speaker 1>hospital UM. And so that's kind of became a symbol

0:19:01.520 --> 0:19:04.640
<v Speaker 1>for many of them about why they were so concerned.

0:19:05.320 --> 0:19:07.360
<v Speaker 1>And it wasn't just a building, Like keep in mind,

0:19:07.480 --> 0:19:11.320
<v Speaker 1>this is early maze. The pandemic is happening. What happened

0:19:11.320 --> 0:19:14.680
<v Speaker 1>to be there happened to be COVID patients throughout the hospital,

0:19:15.280 --> 0:19:18.800
<v Speaker 1>and what ensued from there, well, what happened is that

0:19:18.960 --> 0:19:21.679
<v Speaker 1>because there was no backup power in sort of this

0:19:21.880 --> 0:19:24.520
<v Speaker 1>uh one unit where they were caring for patients, kind

0:19:24.520 --> 0:19:27.760
<v Speaker 1>of keeping them separate from the COVID nineteen patients there

0:19:27.880 --> 0:19:30.439
<v Speaker 1>just had to move those patients, the uninfected patients up

0:19:30.680 --> 0:19:34.000
<v Speaker 1>into a into an IC that was packed with COVID patients.

0:19:34.200 --> 0:19:36.639
<v Speaker 1>And as one nurse told us, they they sort of

0:19:36.640 --> 0:19:40.240
<v Speaker 1>found it really kind of terrifying, and you know, they

0:19:40.240 --> 0:19:43.919
<v Speaker 1>felt that I could potentially patients at risk. So I

0:19:43.920 --> 0:19:45.480
<v Speaker 1>guess what I want to ask you, is, should we

0:19:45.520 --> 0:19:48.720
<v Speaker 1>blame Servius for all of this? Did they not kind

0:19:48.760 --> 0:19:52.600
<v Speaker 1>of make the changes, make the investments that one might

0:19:52.640 --> 0:19:57.159
<v Speaker 1>have expected or hoped for. Well, I mean, to me,

0:19:57.240 --> 0:19:59.679
<v Speaker 1>the main sort of one of the themes of the

0:19:59.720 --> 0:20:03.800
<v Speaker 1>store is is kind of the magic of private equity

0:20:03.800 --> 0:20:07.760
<v Speaker 1>did um Basically the way it was set up is

0:20:07.800 --> 0:20:10.800
<v Speaker 1>that Cerberus very early on kind of guaranteed that it

0:20:10.800 --> 0:20:13.360
<v Speaker 1>would make several times the amount of money that it invested.

0:20:14.440 --> 0:20:19.400
<v Speaker 1>And whatever happened, whether the hospitals, you know, we're struggling

0:20:19.480 --> 0:20:23.280
<v Speaker 1>or whether they were succeeding wildly, Um, they would no

0:20:23.320 --> 0:20:25.600
<v Speaker 1>matter what, make their make their money. And so it's

0:20:25.680 --> 0:20:27.919
<v Speaker 1>kind of that's really what we were looking at. I mean,

0:20:28.000 --> 0:20:31.200
<v Speaker 1>there's no question that that Serbers and Stewart did make

0:20:31.240 --> 0:20:35.159
<v Speaker 1>investments in the hospital, but at this time, even before

0:20:35.200 --> 0:20:38.159
<v Speaker 1>the pandemic, they were struggling financially. So you have this

0:20:38.240 --> 0:20:42.320
<v Speaker 1>contrast between how the hospitals are operating and how much

0:20:43.119 --> 0:20:46.879
<v Speaker 1>how much their investors have profited. You know, John, I

0:20:46.920 --> 0:20:50.320
<v Speaker 1>feel like this is such terrific reporting by you and Sabrina,

0:20:50.400 --> 0:20:52.359
<v Speaker 1>and it really cuts to the core of one of

0:20:52.400 --> 0:20:55.320
<v Speaker 1>the biggest issues I feel like we are facing when

0:20:55.320 --> 0:20:57.680
<v Speaker 1>it comes to Wall Street, when it comes to private equity,

0:20:57.920 --> 0:21:01.239
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to corporate responsibility in many ways, and

0:21:01.280 --> 0:21:03.600
<v Speaker 1>I think it's brought to the FORO so much more

0:21:03.640 --> 0:21:06.560
<v Speaker 1>because of this pandemic that we're living in, which is

0:21:07.320 --> 0:21:11.520
<v Speaker 1>essentially at what cost are you making your profit? And

0:21:11.560 --> 0:21:14.520
<v Speaker 1>I think that's it feels especially true in the healthcare

0:21:14.560 --> 0:21:18.000
<v Speaker 1>arena because based on reporting you've done, and Sabrina Wilmer,

0:21:18.359 --> 0:21:20.560
<v Speaker 1>your co author has done, and Heather Prolberg on the

0:21:20.600 --> 0:21:23.520
<v Speaker 1>private equity team, I mean this is a theme that

0:21:23.640 --> 0:21:27.840
<v Speaker 1>carries throughout the American healthcare system, which is, you know,

0:21:27.920 --> 0:21:31.240
<v Speaker 1>private equity sort of coming in and seeing the ability

0:21:31.280 --> 0:21:34.080
<v Speaker 1>to make money by cutting costs, and in some cases

0:21:34.119 --> 0:21:37.680
<v Speaker 1>it feels like cutting corners. And one of the other

0:21:37.680 --> 0:21:40.760
<v Speaker 1>issues is that, you know, there was there was concern

0:21:40.840 --> 0:21:43.960
<v Speaker 1>that private equity backed companies were getting a bailout money

0:21:44.040 --> 0:21:47.560
<v Speaker 1>right and and that and did did in fact happen

0:21:47.600 --> 0:21:51.200
<v Speaker 1>to hospitals that were backed by private equity, including including

0:21:51.240 --> 0:21:54.920
<v Speaker 1>Stewart Um. They got something like four hundred million dollars

0:21:54.640 --> 0:21:58.760
<v Speaker 1>in loans from the package, another hundred million dollars in grants.

0:21:59.200 --> 0:22:01.040
<v Speaker 1>And so I think the you know, the question now

0:22:01.080 --> 0:22:04.639
<v Speaker 1>that sort of Congress is looking at is um you know,

0:22:06.359 --> 0:22:09.080
<v Speaker 1>you know Wall Street was supposed to be a source

0:22:09.080 --> 0:22:11.760
<v Speaker 1>of money for you know, for private equity, and should

0:22:11.800 --> 0:22:16.720
<v Speaker 1>all these companies be getting beginning taxpayer bailouts? John, you know,

0:22:16.840 --> 0:22:18.560
<v Speaker 1>one thing I just want to kind of bring it

0:22:18.640 --> 0:22:23.080
<v Speaker 1>back to is ultimately um uh Cerberus was able to

0:22:23.080 --> 0:22:26.760
<v Speaker 1>to kind of exit uh somewhat and and walk away

0:22:27.480 --> 0:22:29.960
<v Speaker 1>with what what the where do things stand and how

0:22:30.000 --> 0:22:34.160
<v Speaker 1>could things develop um in the months and years to come? Well,

0:22:34.200 --> 0:22:38.040
<v Speaker 1>Serbs put in about a quarter of a billion dollars

0:22:38.160 --> 0:22:45.320
<v Speaker 1>and all told, um Cerberuss investors tripled um tripled their money.

0:22:45.400 --> 0:22:50.040
<v Speaker 1>And over the last in May, um Cerberus sort of

0:22:50.040 --> 0:22:52.960
<v Speaker 1>started backing away from the investment and gave control to

0:22:53.040 --> 0:22:57.560
<v Speaker 1>the doctors who are running the company. But they still

0:22:57.640 --> 0:23:01.280
<v Speaker 1>have they own a three hundred and fifty million dollar

0:23:01.359 --> 0:23:04.600
<v Speaker 1>bond UM, so they're getting interest on this on this

0:23:04.640 --> 0:23:07.199
<v Speaker 1>payment and if in five years when it comes to

0:23:07.359 --> 0:23:10.480
<v Speaker 1>they could potentially make another three d and fifty million

0:23:10.480 --> 0:23:14.560
<v Speaker 1>dollars if if the company you know, continues operating, and

0:23:14.720 --> 0:23:17.960
<v Speaker 1>if the company, uh, the company thrives and does you

0:23:18.000 --> 0:23:21.560
<v Speaker 1>know the wholes in size, they could make much more

0:23:21.600 --> 0:23:25.600
<v Speaker 1>than that, so, Um, they basically have already made triple

0:23:25.640 --> 0:23:28.720
<v Speaker 1>their money. They could make several times more of that,

0:23:29.119 --> 0:23:32.280
<v Speaker 1>and as you say, Steward's still remains on a financial

0:23:32.359 --> 0:23:37.440
<v Speaker 1>knife edge, so their financial situation is still tricky. Um.

0:23:37.480 --> 0:23:41.560
<v Speaker 1>It's a great read, it's great reporting, as Jason mentioned, Um,

0:23:41.640 --> 0:23:43.600
<v Speaker 1>and we'll we'll put that out on Twitter two so

0:23:43.640 --> 0:23:45.280
<v Speaker 1>that we can share it a little bit more with

0:23:45.560 --> 0:23:47.879
<v Speaker 1>our listeners. John, thank you so much. John Heck and

0:23:47.960 --> 0:23:51.440
<v Speaker 1>Jerry's senior editor at Bloomberg News. Really a phenomenal story,

0:23:51.520 --> 0:23:53.880
<v Speaker 1>joining us on the phone from Boston along with Bloomberg

0:23:53.880 --> 0:23:56.560
<v Speaker 1>Business Week editor Joe Weber on the phone in Massachusetts.

0:23:56.560 --> 0:23:59.399
<v Speaker 1>What I mean, you know these guys a lot like

0:24:00.160 --> 0:24:02.399
<v Speaker 1>the healthcare aspect of this I think is one of

0:24:02.400 --> 0:24:06.160
<v Speaker 1>the most fascinating because it calls into question, I think,

0:24:06.240 --> 0:24:09.000
<v Speaker 1>so much of what we talk about about private equity,

0:24:09.040 --> 0:24:13.159
<v Speaker 1>but also beyond, which is what our company's responsibilities and

0:24:13.240 --> 0:24:16.240
<v Speaker 1>they are not just two shareholders. And I think we're

0:24:16.320 --> 0:24:19.520
<v Speaker 1>coming around to that, but it is slow and it

0:24:19.640 --> 0:24:22.399
<v Speaker 1>is painful, especially when it comes to the healthcare business.

0:24:22.400 --> 0:24:24.080
<v Speaker 1>And check out that story. Check out all of Heather

0:24:24.160 --> 0:24:26.560
<v Speaker 1>prole birds work as well. She's done some phenomenal work.

0:24:27.680 --> 0:24:31.320
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason

0:24:31.400 --> 0:24:35.440
<v Speaker 1>Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. All right, let's do a little

0:24:35.440 --> 0:24:38.439
<v Speaker 1>business Week economics now, Carol, if we can, because, as

0:24:38.440 --> 0:24:40.240
<v Speaker 1>we mentioned with Gina Martin Adams at the top of

0:24:40.280 --> 0:24:42.320
<v Speaker 1>the show, a lot of echo to her this week,

0:24:42.640 --> 0:24:45.919
<v Speaker 1>some this morning, some yesterday, and a big day tomorrow

0:24:46.359 --> 0:24:48.920
<v Speaker 1>with that monthly jobs report. We're gonna break it down

0:24:48.960 --> 0:24:52.120
<v Speaker 1>with Francis Donald, Global chief Economist, head of macro economic

0:24:52.200 --> 0:24:55.320
<v Speaker 1>strategy for Many Life Investment Management, joining us on the

0:24:55.359 --> 0:24:58.640
<v Speaker 1>phone from Toronto. First of all, Francis, how are you.

0:24:58.880 --> 0:25:02.280
<v Speaker 1>What's going on? What's life like up there? I? Actually

0:25:02.320 --> 0:25:04.360
<v Speaker 1>I believe you're in Montreal? Right? Do I get that wrong?

0:25:05.359 --> 0:25:08.159
<v Speaker 1>That's correct? I am correct. I am in Montreal. I

0:25:08.200 --> 0:25:11.440
<v Speaker 1>am an economist in the middle of the largest economic

0:25:11.480 --> 0:25:14.840
<v Speaker 1>crisis of our time. So it is both extremely exciting

0:25:14.880 --> 0:25:17.440
<v Speaker 1>and what we were born to do, and also very

0:25:17.520 --> 0:25:19.800
<v Speaker 1>overwhelming and a lot of new things to have to

0:25:19.800 --> 0:25:22.119
<v Speaker 1>think about, things that we've never thought about before in

0:25:22.119 --> 0:25:25.920
<v Speaker 1>this profession. Really yeah. And one of which, and we've

0:25:26.000 --> 0:25:28.320
<v Speaker 1>mentioned this on this program before, one of which is

0:25:28.440 --> 0:25:31.680
<v Speaker 1>we didn't think about weekly jobless claims very much at

0:25:31.720 --> 0:25:35.199
<v Speaker 1>all for a long time. And now we literally like

0:25:35.359 --> 0:25:38.800
<v Speaker 1>have an alarm set on every Thursday morning to look

0:25:38.840 --> 0:25:41.840
<v Speaker 1>at this number. Tell us what you saw in that

0:25:41.960 --> 0:25:45.240
<v Speaker 1>number and what it may portend as we you know,

0:25:45.320 --> 0:25:48.760
<v Speaker 1>that's that's closer to real time data, or it's it's

0:25:48.800 --> 0:25:52.040
<v Speaker 1>a lesser lag than work what we're going to see tomorrow.

0:25:52.040 --> 0:25:55.119
<v Speaker 1>What does it tell us about the employment picture? Well,

0:25:55.160 --> 0:25:58.320
<v Speaker 1>the headlines I saw on my Bloomberg terminal is that

0:25:58.400 --> 0:26:01.159
<v Speaker 1>you know, we have the best the best initial jobless

0:26:01.200 --> 0:26:04.520
<v Speaker 1>claimed since the pandemic started, that we had this beat

0:26:05.040 --> 0:26:07.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, um and and this to me just was

0:26:07.440 --> 0:26:11.119
<v Speaker 1>fairly shocking interpretation given that we still have over a

0:26:11.280 --> 0:26:15.800
<v Speaker 1>million Americans a week who are filing for the first

0:26:15.840 --> 0:26:20.680
<v Speaker 1>time for unemployment insurance for claim this messaging to me

0:26:20.920 --> 0:26:24.399
<v Speaker 1>is very concerning because it isn't really the number of

0:26:24.880 --> 0:26:27.680
<v Speaker 1>jobless claims or even tomorrow what non farm payroll to

0:26:27.720 --> 0:26:30.840
<v Speaker 1>figure is that matters as much as the composition of

0:26:30.880 --> 0:26:34.320
<v Speaker 1>it underneath. And in some ways, these initial jobless claimed,

0:26:34.359 --> 0:26:37.800
<v Speaker 1>these million every week, are more concerning to me than

0:26:37.840 --> 0:26:40.320
<v Speaker 1>the multiples of that that we saw in March and April.

0:26:40.600 --> 0:26:42.880
<v Speaker 1>And that's because we know the people being laid off

0:26:42.920 --> 0:26:46.080
<v Speaker 1>now are not being laid off because of temporary closures

0:26:46.080 --> 0:26:49.160
<v Speaker 1>of coffee shops and movie theaters, though they're being laid

0:26:49.200 --> 0:26:52.879
<v Speaker 1>off in a more permanent sense. So these job losses

0:26:53.000 --> 0:26:56.159
<v Speaker 1>are much more sinister and necessarious for the economy than

0:26:56.200 --> 0:26:58.720
<v Speaker 1>what we experienced in April. The fact that we have

0:26:58.760 --> 0:27:02.359
<v Speaker 1>a million people a week who are going unemployed should

0:27:02.400 --> 0:27:04.880
<v Speaker 1>be something that weighs on us heavily. And while we

0:27:04.920 --> 0:27:08.359
<v Speaker 1>may have beat the economist expectation, that is missing the

0:27:08.400 --> 0:27:10.479
<v Speaker 1>forest for the trees here, you know, and I do

0:27:10.560 --> 0:27:13.680
<v Speaker 1>under Francis Man, these numbers are already staggering right when

0:27:13.680 --> 0:27:15.920
<v Speaker 1>they come out, as you said, one million a week.

0:27:16.280 --> 0:27:19.560
<v Speaker 1>But I do wonder are you anticipating that we get

0:27:19.640 --> 0:27:22.040
<v Speaker 1>kind of another drop down. I don't know whether it's

0:27:22.040 --> 0:27:24.160
<v Speaker 1>in a few months, whether it's the beginning of next year.

0:27:24.480 --> 0:27:27.359
<v Speaker 1>You know, when companies really have to say there's just

0:27:27.440 --> 0:27:29.760
<v Speaker 1>no demand out there for our services are certainly not

0:27:29.840 --> 0:27:31.720
<v Speaker 1>like it was, and we've just got to let go

0:27:31.800 --> 0:27:34.840
<v Speaker 1>more workers. Well, a lot of what the data is,

0:27:34.960 --> 0:27:37.240
<v Speaker 1>Michelle says, I don't think a lot of our charts

0:27:37.280 --> 0:27:39.560
<v Speaker 1>is going to show a double dip or a double

0:27:39.640 --> 0:27:42.399
<v Speaker 1>you type of environment. But what I do anticipated that

0:27:42.440 --> 0:27:44.600
<v Speaker 1>we're going to see a stalling out of the momentum,

0:27:44.600 --> 0:27:47.320
<v Speaker 1>and actually a lot of our high frequency indicators showed

0:27:47.400 --> 0:27:50.240
<v Speaker 1>us that that started in early July, and even initial

0:27:50.280 --> 0:27:52.600
<v Speaker 1>jobless claims are showing us a similar story, which is

0:27:52.600 --> 0:27:56.679
<v Speaker 1>that we still incrementally recover off of the depression that

0:27:56.800 --> 0:27:59.320
<v Speaker 1>was March and April, but we certainly don't go back

0:27:59.359 --> 0:28:02.000
<v Speaker 1>to streed called at levels. What I find interesting is

0:28:02.119 --> 0:28:06.320
<v Speaker 1>we were to stabilize, for example, at minus five ton GDP,

0:28:06.840 --> 0:28:09.520
<v Speaker 1>we might see headlines telling us that's an improvement over

0:28:09.560 --> 0:28:11.840
<v Speaker 1>the thirty percent drop with SAW on Q two, but

0:28:11.920 --> 0:28:14.480
<v Speaker 1>it would still be some of the if not the

0:28:14.520 --> 0:28:17.600
<v Speaker 1>worst economic data that we've seen outside of this pandemic.

0:28:17.680 --> 0:28:21.119
<v Speaker 1>So we are moving from depression to recession. And if

0:28:21.160 --> 0:28:23.520
<v Speaker 1>you're a second derivative type gal like I am, of

0:28:23.560 --> 0:28:25.720
<v Speaker 1>course that's good and markets to react to that as well.

0:28:25.920 --> 0:28:27.880
<v Speaker 1>But the fundamental story or is that we are a

0:28:27.880 --> 0:28:30.640
<v Speaker 1>long way out of the wood, and actually the nature

0:28:31.000 --> 0:28:33.120
<v Speaker 1>of this recession is going to change quite a bit

0:28:33.160 --> 0:28:36.240
<v Speaker 1>in the next coming months, particularly if we do not

0:28:36.400 --> 0:28:40.400
<v Speaker 1>get an extension on unemployment insurance. Top of very very soon.

0:28:40.520 --> 0:28:43.040
<v Speaker 1>If we don't get that, then August and September is

0:28:43.040 --> 0:28:45.440
<v Speaker 1>going to be a real tough period for a lot

0:28:45.440 --> 0:28:47.600
<v Speaker 1>of economic data and for a lot of people too.

0:28:48.400 --> 0:28:50.440
<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna pause for a second so that Carol Messer

0:28:50.560 --> 0:28:52.480
<v Speaker 1>can add that to her list of T shirt names,

0:28:52.480 --> 0:28:54.040
<v Speaker 1>because I want you to wear a T shirt that

0:28:54.080 --> 0:28:58.360
<v Speaker 1>says I'm a second derivative kind of gal, because that's brilliant.

0:28:58.600 --> 0:29:01.959
<v Speaker 1>I love it. Um So Francis. You know, when we

0:29:02.000 --> 0:29:04.920
<v Speaker 1>think about what's going on in Washington, you know that's

0:29:05.080 --> 0:29:08.680
<v Speaker 1>another thing that investors are really reacting to, is alright, Congress,

0:29:08.960 --> 0:29:10.800
<v Speaker 1>maybe they're going to get their act together, maybe the

0:29:10.840 --> 0:29:13.200
<v Speaker 1>President is going to sweep in with some executive action.

0:29:13.760 --> 0:29:17.520
<v Speaker 1>How much can you do you sort of model in

0:29:17.880 --> 0:29:22.920
<v Speaker 1>a fiscal solution here, given that something we hope is

0:29:22.960 --> 0:29:26.840
<v Speaker 1>going to get across the finish line, it's the only solution.

0:29:27.120 --> 0:29:30.280
<v Speaker 1>The Seederal Reserve is preventing a credit crisis and insuring

0:29:30.320 --> 0:29:32.720
<v Speaker 1>we have plenty of liquidity in the system, but they

0:29:32.920 --> 0:29:37.320
<v Speaker 1>cannot help everyday Americans get food on the table when

0:29:37.320 --> 0:29:40.800
<v Speaker 1>we're in the largest employment shocks of our time. So

0:29:41.280 --> 0:29:44.480
<v Speaker 1>right now, the big challenges we know April and May

0:29:44.560 --> 0:29:48.400
<v Speaker 1>and June were substantially bolsters by this bridge created by

0:29:48.440 --> 0:29:52.600
<v Speaker 1>the Unemployment Insurance top up and other additional forms of support.

0:29:52.920 --> 0:29:55.080
<v Speaker 1>But that rug is being pulled out from under us.

0:29:55.120 --> 0:29:57.480
<v Speaker 1>I think when I look at that City Surprise Index

0:29:57.520 --> 0:30:00.920
<v Speaker 1>that shows us the largest spread between next economic data

0:30:01.160 --> 0:30:04.520
<v Speaker 1>UM expectations and the actual data. The reason that we

0:30:04.600 --> 0:30:07.880
<v Speaker 1>have been overly pessimistic in general as a profession is

0:30:07.880 --> 0:30:11.640
<v Speaker 1>that we've underappreciated just how sizeable those fiscal transfers have been.

0:30:11.880 --> 0:30:13.440
<v Speaker 1>And I know there are some who are going to

0:30:13.480 --> 0:30:16.920
<v Speaker 1>say yes, but the extent of fiscal has disincentivized hiring

0:30:16.920 --> 0:30:20.960
<v Speaker 1>activity or disincentivized people looking for jobs. But there simply

0:30:21.000 --> 0:30:23.280
<v Speaker 1>isn't enough hiring activity. As much as we've got initial

0:30:23.360 --> 0:30:26.400
<v Speaker 1>job exclaims. This morning, we also saw a five hundred

0:30:26.480 --> 0:30:30.280
<v Speaker 1>and seventy six percent year over year increase in job cuts,

0:30:30.640 --> 0:30:34.680
<v Speaker 1>five hundred and seventy six percent increase in challenger job cuts.

0:30:34.680 --> 0:30:37.800
<v Speaker 1>So there is not a lot of hiring activity happening here.

0:30:38.080 --> 0:30:40.160
<v Speaker 1>And if we do not have some additional support for

0:30:40.200 --> 0:30:43.320
<v Speaker 1>Americans UM, even if it's applied retroactively, it takes a

0:30:43.320 --> 0:30:44.960
<v Speaker 1>couple of weeks to work us way through the system.

0:30:45.160 --> 0:30:46.920
<v Speaker 1>I think August is going to be a very challenging

0:30:46.960 --> 0:30:49.080
<v Speaker 1>my pike, I call August an air pocket where we

0:30:49.120 --> 0:30:53.000
<v Speaker 1>actually see probably a lot of really difficult, strange distortions

0:30:53.040 --> 0:30:56.480
<v Speaker 1>in our data. Hopefully they've correct themselves in September and October,

0:30:56.520 --> 0:30:58.520
<v Speaker 1>but August I think might be one of the toughest

0:30:58.560 --> 0:31:01.640
<v Speaker 1>months in this recession, even more tough than than the

0:31:01.680 --> 0:31:04.719
<v Speaker 1>initial shock of April. Well, a lot of uncertainty out there,

0:31:04.720 --> 0:31:06.480
<v Speaker 1>but one thing for certain, Frances, I know we're going

0:31:06.520 --> 0:31:08.800
<v Speaker 1>to be coming back to you a lot because your

0:31:08.840 --> 0:31:12.640
<v Speaker 1>analysis is just fascinating to hear. And uh, like we said,

0:31:12.640 --> 0:31:14.320
<v Speaker 1>we're adding you to our T shirt list. We have

0:31:14.400 --> 0:31:17.360
<v Speaker 1>just a T shirt list of really smart saying so

0:31:17.680 --> 0:31:19.880
<v Speaker 1>we're gonna keep doing like some of them, like we

0:31:19.920 --> 0:31:24.200
<v Speaker 1>have the j Pal Lending not Spending Tour of twenty

0:31:24.320 --> 0:31:26.560
<v Speaker 1>Like I feel like you could pull that one off, Francis.

0:31:26.640 --> 0:31:29.360
<v Speaker 1>All right, our thanks to Francis Donald up in many

0:31:29.440 --> 0:31:32.640
<v Speaker 1>Life asset management really one of our good two voices here,

0:31:33.200 --> 0:31:36.600
<v Speaker 1>and I always look forward to catching up with her. Carol,

0:31:36.880 --> 0:31:40.360
<v Speaker 1>and I do want to be a secondary derivative kind

0:31:40.360 --> 0:31:43.480
<v Speaker 1>of gal, like I feel like you are just studied economics.

0:31:43.520 --> 0:31:47.600
<v Speaker 1>You're you're a burgeoning Uh that would be an economist

0:31:47.600 --> 0:31:50.040
<v Speaker 1>in a different life. I think I would. I would

0:31:50.400 --> 0:31:54.040
<v Speaker 1>be Francis Donald, only in my dreams. You're listening to

0:31:54.200 --> 0:31:58.120
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on

0:31:58.280 --> 0:32:00.840
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio. We do to talk a little bit about

0:32:01.080 --> 0:32:03.840
<v Speaker 1>the E t F world. Ed Rosenberg is back with us,

0:32:03.880 --> 0:32:08.520
<v Speaker 1>head of ETF that American Century investments ninety billion in

0:32:08.560 --> 0:32:10.920
<v Speaker 1>assets under management joining us, I believe on the phone

0:32:10.920 --> 0:32:14.600
<v Speaker 1>from Chicago. Ed. Good to have you back with us. UM,

0:32:14.760 --> 0:32:17.920
<v Speaker 1>I gotta ask you. Are you in Chicago right now?

0:32:18.720 --> 0:32:22.000
<v Speaker 1>I am? Yes? Okay, Well, good to know how Chicago going.

0:32:23.000 --> 0:32:26.320
<v Speaker 1>Chicago's great. I mean it's perfect weather. It's better than

0:32:26.320 --> 0:32:27.560
<v Speaker 1>when I used to live on the East Coast. I

0:32:27.560 --> 0:32:30.880
<v Speaker 1>don't get any of those storms. Tell me about it.

0:32:30.960 --> 0:32:33.720
<v Speaker 1>Oh god, you don't. You don't know the half of it.

0:32:33.800 --> 0:32:35.720
<v Speaker 1>I mean that really swept through here. I'd live in

0:32:35.800 --> 0:32:38.400
<v Speaker 1>Westchester and it knocked out power. I mean it was

0:32:38.560 --> 0:32:41.280
<v Speaker 1>it was second only to Hurricane Sandy, a distant second,

0:32:41.360 --> 0:32:44.920
<v Speaker 1>but in terms of knocking everything else. So any kiss,

0:32:45.880 --> 0:32:49.600
<v Speaker 1>how's the virus situation there? I'm sorry, what did you say,

0:32:49.720 --> 0:32:53.680
<v Speaker 1>the virus situation. I mean, you know, in Chicago, I

0:32:53.680 --> 0:32:56.160
<v Speaker 1>know it's it's pretty rough with what's been going on

0:32:56.240 --> 0:32:58.440
<v Speaker 1>in but it hasn't from my understand, I haven't grown

0:32:58.480 --> 0:33:00.720
<v Speaker 1>that much where I live, which as a small town

0:33:00.800 --> 0:33:04.040
<v Speaker 1>just west of the city, it's really it's quiet here

0:33:04.080 --> 0:33:07.120
<v Speaker 1>for that um so, I mean, everyone's wearing their masks,

0:33:07.160 --> 0:33:10.400
<v Speaker 1>doing the right thing, but it's still the spread overall.

0:33:10.440 --> 0:33:13.480
<v Speaker 1>In the six months that will call it that's been

0:33:13.880 --> 0:33:16.560
<v Speaker 1>really around, my town has only had a hundred and

0:33:16.640 --> 0:33:19.240
<v Speaker 1>thirty two cases, So it's been relatively quiet on that front,

0:33:19.240 --> 0:33:21.520
<v Speaker 1>which is good. Everyone's really doing the right thing in

0:33:21.520 --> 0:33:24.720
<v Speaker 1>the town and keeping it from really spreading. And it

0:33:24.880 --> 0:33:26.960
<v Speaker 1>is interesting to sort of see that play out on

0:33:27.200 --> 0:33:30.360
<v Speaker 1>an almost micro level, right, I mean in this sense

0:33:30.400 --> 0:33:32.760
<v Speaker 1>that when you do see a group of people doing

0:33:33.000 --> 0:33:36.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, what are now widely considered by medical experts

0:33:36.720 --> 0:33:39.920
<v Speaker 1>to be the right things, mass social distancing, washing your

0:33:39.920 --> 0:33:43.160
<v Speaker 1>hands and all that, it does tend to work. But

0:33:43.520 --> 0:33:46.320
<v Speaker 1>I digress. Uh, you are the head of exchange traded

0:33:46.320 --> 0:33:51.560
<v Speaker 1>funds ets, as Carol mentioned, talk to us about this moment,

0:33:52.200 --> 0:33:56.560
<v Speaker 1>especially for E s G. Because it feels like we're

0:33:57.000 --> 0:33:59.880
<v Speaker 1>in a moment that has only accelerated over the course

0:33:59.880 --> 0:34:02.920
<v Speaker 1>of fair to say, has been a little bit of

0:34:02.920 --> 0:34:05.040
<v Speaker 1>a funky year. But but what are you seeing in

0:34:05.120 --> 0:34:08.640
<v Speaker 1>terms of flows and even just in terms of general interest.

0:34:09.719 --> 0:34:12.120
<v Speaker 1>So let's start with the general interests with E s G.

0:34:12.280 --> 0:34:15.080
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think it's it's picked up. What's been

0:34:15.120 --> 0:34:18.799
<v Speaker 1>interesting about this year is companies that are considered more

0:34:18.920 --> 0:34:23.400
<v Speaker 1>E s G have performed better. Now there's different approaches

0:34:23.440 --> 0:34:26.080
<v Speaker 1>to e s G. You know, there's there's exclusionary, which

0:34:26.400 --> 0:34:28.200
<v Speaker 1>tends to be a little bit different, there's impact, and

0:34:28.239 --> 0:34:30.319
<v Speaker 1>then there's really sort of digging in and finding those

0:34:30.360 --> 0:34:33.399
<v Speaker 1>companies that are environmental, social, and governance. And I think

0:34:33.400 --> 0:34:36.359
<v Speaker 1>when you do the second and third aspect of it,

0:34:36.840 --> 0:34:38.960
<v Speaker 1>you're really able to find companies that are starting to

0:34:39.000 --> 0:34:42.360
<v Speaker 1>be considered quality across the board. And quality in the

0:34:42.480 --> 0:34:45.319
<v Speaker 1>year like this, when there's been so much volatility, has

0:34:45.400 --> 0:34:49.319
<v Speaker 1>definitely been rewarded in a lot of ways because if

0:34:49.360 --> 0:34:51.840
<v Speaker 1>earnings are going to continue, I know, listening to the

0:34:52.200 --> 0:34:54.800
<v Speaker 1>update of what's driving the Dow, we're driving the stocks today,

0:34:55.040 --> 0:34:57.680
<v Speaker 1>the companies that were talked about were definitely quality companies

0:34:58.280 --> 0:35:00.879
<v Speaker 1>and so I think that's really helping E G. As

0:35:00.920 --> 0:35:04.000
<v Speaker 1>they become more quality and more top of mind for people,

0:35:04.960 --> 0:35:07.359
<v Speaker 1>it's going to become more popular as an investment theme.

0:35:07.719 --> 0:35:10.760
<v Speaker 1>And a company like American Century, you know, just to

0:35:10.880 --> 0:35:13.480
<v Speaker 1>add this to it being owned by the Star Wars

0:35:13.560 --> 0:35:16.759
<v Speaker 1>Institute for Medical Research. I mean, we really have a

0:35:16.840 --> 0:35:19.240
<v Speaker 1>unique understanding of B S G and how we apply

0:35:19.320 --> 0:35:22.920
<v Speaker 1>it across our board. So one thing I'm curious about

0:35:23.080 --> 0:35:27.640
<v Speaker 1>ED is where investors are committing money new money right now?

0:35:27.680 --> 0:35:29.520
<v Speaker 1>What are the flows that you guys have seen in

0:35:29.520 --> 0:35:33.120
<v Speaker 1>and out of American Century, And I'm curious if the

0:35:33.160 --> 0:35:35.919
<v Speaker 1>flows how they have changed kind of as we've moved

0:35:35.920 --> 0:35:38.920
<v Speaker 1>our way um through for many of us, you know,

0:35:39.040 --> 0:35:42.319
<v Speaker 1>this work from home, stay at home environment and the

0:35:42.360 --> 0:35:45.920
<v Speaker 1>impact of the virus. So it's interesting from an overall

0:35:45.960 --> 0:35:49.799
<v Speaker 1>perspective from ets in general and then American Century. What

0:35:49.920 --> 0:35:52.800
<v Speaker 1>you saw was you saw a lot of international investing

0:35:52.960 --> 0:35:56.359
<v Speaker 1>the first part of the year and that has substantially

0:35:56.360 --> 0:35:58.640
<v Speaker 1>faded and gone to negative. So money has flown out

0:35:58.640 --> 0:36:00.880
<v Speaker 1>of that. And where you've seen in money going is

0:36:01.080 --> 0:36:02.799
<v Speaker 1>I don't want to it's not what I would call

0:36:02.800 --> 0:36:05.360
<v Speaker 1>a flight to safety, but it's flight to some higher

0:36:05.400 --> 0:36:08.359
<v Speaker 1>yielding bonds who corporates across the board as well as

0:36:08.360 --> 0:36:12.000
<v Speaker 1>some area, but the US. It's really been focused specifically

0:36:12.040 --> 0:36:14.920
<v Speaker 1>on the US market. And then if you look specifically,

0:36:14.920 --> 0:36:16.840
<v Speaker 1>it's what you've been what you guys I'm sure have

0:36:16.920 --> 0:36:20.120
<v Speaker 1>been talking about, which is technology, right, whether it's you know,

0:36:20.200 --> 0:36:23.560
<v Speaker 1>from fang stocks across the board, people are going into

0:36:23.600 --> 0:36:26.360
<v Speaker 1>that and even some of our ETFs. We launched a

0:36:26.480 --> 0:36:28.480
<v Speaker 1>new ETF earlier this year in the middle of the

0:36:28.560 --> 0:36:32.279
<v Speaker 1>pandemic um just focused dynamic growth, which has some of

0:36:32.320 --> 0:36:36.120
<v Speaker 1>that technology exposure. I mean, it's been gathering assets fairly

0:36:36.200 --> 0:36:38.960
<v Speaker 1>quickly for a new product and quite frankly, it's a

0:36:39.000 --> 0:36:41.560
<v Speaker 1>new structure for you guys. It's a semi transparent structure,

0:36:41.600 --> 0:36:44.040
<v Speaker 1>which was the first of its kind just to get

0:36:44.080 --> 0:36:46.600
<v Speaker 1>out there, and people are drawing interest to that more

0:36:46.680 --> 0:36:49.239
<v Speaker 1>than anything else that I've launched in a long time.

0:36:49.920 --> 0:36:54.440
<v Speaker 1>What does that mean? Semi transparent? So, as you know,

0:36:54.680 --> 0:36:58.720
<v Speaker 1>with with ets, holdings generally are displayed daily through a function,

0:36:58.840 --> 0:37:01.120
<v Speaker 1>whether it's called the basket, shows you all the holdings.

0:37:01.800 --> 0:37:05.000
<v Speaker 1>These semi transparent structures do not show the holdings daily.

0:37:05.440 --> 0:37:08.080
<v Speaker 1>That is the only difference. And so what that means

0:37:08.160 --> 0:37:10.719
<v Speaker 1>basically is the only time the investor can see what's

0:37:10.760 --> 0:37:13.120
<v Speaker 1>in the fund is either on a monthly basis with

0:37:13.200 --> 0:37:15.880
<v Speaker 1>the top ten holdings, or from us when we released

0:37:15.920 --> 0:37:19.960
<v Speaker 1>the quarterly holdings fifteen days after quarter in, they'll see

0:37:20.000 --> 0:37:22.399
<v Speaker 1>exactly what's in it just quickly thirty seconds. Why would

0:37:22.400 --> 0:37:26.080
<v Speaker 1>I want that over a fully transparent Well, if you're

0:37:26.120 --> 0:37:30.200
<v Speaker 1>really looking for something that has the portfolio manager's best

0:37:30.280 --> 0:37:33.400
<v Speaker 1>ideas without the fear of front running, so they can

0:37:33.520 --> 0:37:37.440
<v Speaker 1>really offer potentially an alpha generating portfolio similar to what

0:37:37.440 --> 0:37:39.640
<v Speaker 1>you'd get in the mutual fund, which you can't get.

0:37:39.680 --> 0:37:43.560
<v Speaker 1>An Yes, that's exactly why you'd want it. Interesting, Interesting,

0:37:43.640 --> 0:37:45.920
<v Speaker 1>all right, Ed Rosenberg, thank you so much. Really good

0:37:45.920 --> 0:37:47.719
<v Speaker 1>to catch up with you get a view of what's

0:37:47.719 --> 0:37:51.560
<v Speaker 1>happening there on the ground just outside Chicago. Ed Rosenberg,

0:37:51.640 --> 0:37:55.520
<v Speaker 1>head of exchange traded funds for American Century Investments. I mean,

0:37:55.640 --> 0:37:59.080
<v Speaker 1>look this, that corner. I was going to call it

0:37:59.239 --> 0:38:01.040
<v Speaker 1>the quarter of the mark, Like that side of the

0:38:01.160 --> 0:38:04.239
<v Speaker 1>market has just exploded when it comes to ets, I

0:38:04.320 --> 0:38:06.800
<v Speaker 1>was reminded about of that when you were out and

0:38:07.160 --> 0:38:09.800
<v Speaker 1>hanging out with his scarlet food. When she was with me.

0:38:09.960 --> 0:38:12.840
<v Speaker 1>She knows so much about if somebody was treating me like,

0:38:12.840 --> 0:38:15.240
<v Speaker 1>when are you gonna bring it back? What's it coming back? Scarlett?

0:38:15.960 --> 0:38:18.760
<v Speaker 1>I know that's her show. It's her show, ma'am. Hopefully

0:38:18.880 --> 0:38:26.000
<v Speaker 1>soon I'm roam journal. Yeah, but you let me drive?

0:38:26.280 --> 0:38:30.560
<v Speaker 1>Oh no, no, no, no home honey, please, I'll do

0:38:30.680 --> 0:38:37.480
<v Speaker 1>the riding drivel. I want to drive all just drive baby,

0:38:40.280 --> 0:38:51.640
<v Speaker 1>the question trying can this is the drive to the globe. Thanks,

0:38:51.640 --> 0:38:56.480
<v Speaker 1>We'll drying up on Bloomberg Radio in this time for

0:38:56.680 --> 0:38:58.480
<v Speaker 1>the Drive to the clothes. Happy to have back with this.

0:38:58.560 --> 0:39:02.280
<v Speaker 1>Bill Smee, chief investment Officer, Smead Capital Management. He joins

0:39:02.400 --> 0:39:06.120
<v Speaker 1>us from the West coast, the Pacific Northwest, the Seattle

0:39:06.200 --> 0:39:10.800
<v Speaker 1>area to be a little more precise. So, Bill, you know,

0:39:11.360 --> 0:39:14.279
<v Speaker 1>I listened to Charlie Pellett all day every day, and

0:39:14.840 --> 0:39:16.960
<v Speaker 1>he pops into our show and he tells us what's

0:39:17.000 --> 0:39:20.320
<v Speaker 1>going on in the market, and he is increasingly and

0:39:20.480 --> 0:39:23.000
<v Speaker 1>has been for a while. I guess using the word

0:39:23.080 --> 0:39:25.279
<v Speaker 1>record to talk about the SMP and certainly to talk

0:39:25.320 --> 0:39:28.000
<v Speaker 1>about the NASDAC. Let's talk about the NAZAC if we can.

0:39:28.120 --> 0:39:31.439
<v Speaker 1>Let's talk about tech stocks, because what a run they've had,

0:39:31.800 --> 0:39:35.360
<v Speaker 1>and it just defies gravity in many cases, and I

0:39:35.480 --> 0:39:40.680
<v Speaker 1>wonder what you make of it. Well, Uh, I'm forty

0:39:40.760 --> 0:39:45.279
<v Speaker 1>years into being in this industry. And uh. You know,

0:39:45.400 --> 0:39:49.839
<v Speaker 1>when when you are a long time veteran, you try

0:39:49.960 --> 0:39:55.160
<v Speaker 1>to train yourself to be excited about meritorious things and

0:39:55.360 --> 0:39:58.920
<v Speaker 1>wonderful companies that are in the wrong part of their

0:39:59.040 --> 0:40:02.680
<v Speaker 1>business cycle, uh for one reason or another, and you

0:40:02.840 --> 0:40:08.920
<v Speaker 1>try to avoid kept getting involved in very strong momentum

0:40:09.000 --> 0:40:13.200
<v Speaker 1>and popularity among things that are near the top of

0:40:13.760 --> 0:40:19.880
<v Speaker 1>their particular industry business cycle. And the COVID thing, obviously

0:40:20.600 --> 0:40:26.359
<v Speaker 1>has uh exacerbated the misery of some people that were

0:40:26.560 --> 0:40:32.920
<v Speaker 1>in down cycles, and it has caused an whole layer

0:40:33.320 --> 0:40:37.320
<v Speaker 1>of additional momentum to those things that were already popular

0:40:37.440 --> 0:40:42.920
<v Speaker 1>but are benefiting from the kind of voluntary prison that

0:40:43.000 --> 0:40:47.799
<v Speaker 1>we operate in. All Right, is that your way of saying,

0:40:47.840 --> 0:40:51.800
<v Speaker 1>it's tough being a value guy right now? Testing is

0:40:51.880 --> 0:40:58.279
<v Speaker 1>not the right word now it You know, it was

0:40:58.440 --> 0:41:02.560
<v Speaker 1>rough and nine that was rough because your next door

0:41:02.640 --> 0:41:05.680
<v Speaker 1>neighbor was doubling their money on an I p O uh,

0:41:05.960 --> 0:41:09.360
<v Speaker 1>you know, twice a month, and and you know wondered

0:41:09.400 --> 0:41:14.000
<v Speaker 1>why you couldn't get them any shares? Uh. And this time,

0:41:14.440 --> 0:41:18.880
<v Speaker 1>I mean it's literally it's the businesses that virtually everybody

0:41:19.040 --> 0:41:22.759
<v Speaker 1>is forced to interact with on a daily basis. And

0:41:23.120 --> 0:41:26.719
<v Speaker 1>the problem is that it would be a lot like

0:41:27.120 --> 0:41:31.320
<v Speaker 1>nineteen seventy two, where you you were a Coca Cola

0:41:31.400 --> 0:41:36.000
<v Speaker 1>drinker and you you recognized how addictive and wonderful of

0:41:36.080 --> 0:41:39.839
<v Speaker 1>a business that Coca Cola was, and then you bought

0:41:39.880 --> 0:41:43.040
<v Speaker 1>a bunch of it in nineteen seventy two at about

0:41:43.400 --> 0:41:46.319
<v Speaker 1>you know, eighty times earnings, and then you woke up

0:41:46.360 --> 0:41:50.320
<v Speaker 1>ten years later and you you you lost money for

0:41:50.480 --> 0:41:53.239
<v Speaker 1>ten years, Uh quite a bit, as a matter of fact,

0:41:53.880 --> 0:41:56.200
<v Speaker 1>and and you got into a different part of the

0:41:56.239 --> 0:41:58.560
<v Speaker 1>cycle for stocks and a different part of the cycle

0:41:58.680 --> 0:42:03.640
<v Speaker 1>for for their particular industry. And uh, it's just hard

0:42:03.719 --> 0:42:06.480
<v Speaker 1>to visualize that stuff right now. We I, you know,

0:42:07.920 --> 0:42:13.840
<v Speaker 1>I have swallowed so much Humble Pie that I literally

0:42:13.960 --> 0:42:20.279
<v Speaker 1>could start a Humble Pie chain. Yeah. It's tough out there,

0:42:20.440 --> 0:42:24.120
<v Speaker 1>for sure in many ways. And yet the market you know,

0:42:25.200 --> 0:42:29.200
<v Speaker 1>you know, continues continues to grind in many ways. So

0:42:29.960 --> 0:42:34.040
<v Speaker 1>where do you find opportunity here then, especially given all

0:42:34.160 --> 0:42:38.280
<v Speaker 1>these different headlines coming out as that are part health crisis,

0:42:38.400 --> 0:42:42.520
<v Speaker 1>part economic crisis, part trade tensions, like all of it

0:42:42.600 --> 0:42:46.600
<v Speaker 1>seems to be coming at us from every direction every day. Yeah. So,

0:42:46.880 --> 0:42:50.680
<v Speaker 1>so first off, uh and I love the question. I

0:42:51.040 --> 0:42:56.759
<v Speaker 1>love your premise there. You're just looking for great long

0:42:56.920 --> 0:43:00.640
<v Speaker 1>term risk reward relationships when you're us. So I don't

0:43:00.640 --> 0:43:03.920
<v Speaker 1>want to mope too much. Uh. I think if you

0:43:04.000 --> 0:43:06.359
<v Speaker 1>look back at the last ten years, I think we've

0:43:06.400 --> 0:43:11.359
<v Speaker 1>made something like compounded net of costs for our end investors. Right.

0:43:11.640 --> 0:43:16.200
<v Speaker 1>So it's like, you know, uh, I'm not here at moment.

0:43:16.200 --> 0:43:20.120
<v Speaker 1>It's been a great era, and ironically we're fully invested,

0:43:20.640 --> 0:43:23.359
<v Speaker 1>right We're We're We're not We're not one of these

0:43:23.400 --> 0:43:27.319
<v Speaker 1>groups that's sitting in cash waiting for armagedd to come. Uh.

0:43:28.000 --> 0:43:31.600
<v Speaker 1>Uh So, so we're you know, we're not there. But

0:43:32.239 --> 0:43:38.320
<v Speaker 1>back to your point, uh, the production of oil in

0:43:38.400 --> 0:43:42.719
<v Speaker 1>the United States has fallen off a cliff and the

0:43:42.920 --> 0:43:48.440
<v Speaker 1>rigs are shut down, and it just appears that at

0:43:48.600 --> 0:43:51.200
<v Speaker 1>some point a year or year and a half from now,

0:43:51.680 --> 0:43:56.399
<v Speaker 1>that if we get back to of the economy when

0:43:56.480 --> 0:44:00.480
<v Speaker 1>that lack of supply runs into actual demand, if we're

0:44:00.480 --> 0:44:03.399
<v Speaker 1>at forty a barrel or forty two of barrel right now,

0:44:03.920 --> 0:44:06.560
<v Speaker 1>where are we going to be when some kind of

0:44:06.680 --> 0:44:09.040
<v Speaker 1>demand normalization comes up in a year and a half

0:44:09.160 --> 0:44:13.520
<v Speaker 1>or two years, and therefore that looks attractive when Warren

0:44:13.640 --> 0:44:17.719
<v Speaker 1>Buffett is backing up the truck on Bank America, which

0:44:17.800 --> 0:44:20.200
<v Speaker 1>is a stock that we've owned since two thousand and

0:44:20.320 --> 0:44:23.799
<v Speaker 1>twelve and and done extremely well on even though it's

0:44:23.840 --> 0:44:27.239
<v Speaker 1>corrected sharply and not come back from the from the

0:44:27.400 --> 0:44:33.839
<v Speaker 1>COVID debacle. Uh Buffett was mortified may one, right. I mean,

0:44:33.880 --> 0:44:37.680
<v Speaker 1>if you watched the Virtual Annual meeting, he was mortified.

0:44:38.320 --> 0:44:42.040
<v Speaker 1>And and uh so do you have to ask him

0:44:42.040 --> 0:44:44.239
<v Speaker 1>the question why did you buy Dominion Energy and why

0:44:44.320 --> 0:44:47.160
<v Speaker 1>you're buying Bank America? And and the answer to that

0:44:47.280 --> 0:44:50.400
<v Speaker 1>would be that a lot of the uncertainties that that

0:44:50.680 --> 0:44:53.759
<v Speaker 1>that he couldn't really get his arms wrapped around may one,

0:44:54.480 --> 0:44:58.600
<v Speaker 1>He's more comfortable wrapping his arms around them. Now. You know,

0:44:59.640 --> 0:45:01.120
<v Speaker 1>we've been talking this week, and I was talking with

0:45:01.160 --> 0:45:03.320
<v Speaker 1>a bunch of CEOs about scenario planning. Right. This is

0:45:03.400 --> 0:45:06.359
<v Speaker 1>something that Shall really created back in the seventies where

0:45:06.360 --> 0:45:08.920
<v Speaker 1>you start to think through those wild scenarios and then

0:45:09.040 --> 0:45:11.440
<v Speaker 1>kind of plan your business around that as an investor.

0:45:11.600 --> 0:45:15.200
<v Speaker 1>What's the scenario planning um bill that we need to

0:45:15.239 --> 0:45:17.280
<v Speaker 1>be doing right now. I just got about forty seconds.

0:45:18.280 --> 0:45:22.160
<v Speaker 1>One of our scenarios is playing out, and actually COVID

0:45:22.320 --> 0:45:26.919
<v Speaker 1>nineteen has been the positive catalyst, which is we talked

0:45:27.000 --> 0:45:29.799
<v Speaker 1>to people at dr Heart in a day, people under

0:45:29.960 --> 0:45:33.680
<v Speaker 1>thirty four bought the new homes they built in the

0:45:33.800 --> 0:45:37.520
<v Speaker 1>last couple of months. And that is something that most

0:45:37.600 --> 0:45:41.600
<v Speaker 1>people were not expecting, which is that the millennials would

0:45:41.880 --> 0:45:45.759
<v Speaker 1>buy houses like prior generations. They're just doing it five

0:45:45.840 --> 0:45:50.480
<v Speaker 1>to seven years later. Very cool, very interesting. Um, thank

0:45:50.520 --> 0:45:51.880
<v Speaker 1>you so much for them. You're right, and we've been

0:45:51.920 --> 0:45:54.400
<v Speaker 1>watching that housing sector talking a lot about kind of

0:45:54.480 --> 0:45:56.920
<v Speaker 1>what we're seeing, and those trends have been, you know,

0:45:57.040 --> 0:46:00.320
<v Speaker 1>really really interesting to follow. Bill Smith, They you so

0:46:00.480 --> 0:46:03.480
<v Speaker 1>much meat capital market. Bill has really seen a lot

0:46:03.520 --> 0:46:07.400
<v Speaker 1>of market cycles over his forty years, investing about two

0:46:07.440 --> 0:46:10.640
<v Speaker 1>point two billion in assets under management, joining us on

0:46:10.719 --> 0:46:13.200
<v Speaker 1>the phone from Seattle. Yeah, it's a great perspective and

0:46:13.320 --> 0:46:16.640
<v Speaker 1>listen that long term view. It's really important to keep

0:46:16.680 --> 0:46:19.520
<v Speaker 1>in mind because it's easy to get caught up in

0:46:19.600 --> 0:46:22.239
<v Speaker 1>a minute to minute to take by ticks, certainly in

0:46:22.280 --> 0:46:23.799
<v Speaker 1>a market like this. Well, we do want to talk

0:46:23.800 --> 0:46:26.279
<v Speaker 1>a little bit about the E t F world ed

0:46:26.400 --> 0:46:28.640
<v Speaker 1>Rosenberg is back with US, head of ETF that American

0:46:28.719 --> 0:46:33.640
<v Speaker 1>Century UH investments ninety billion in assets under management joining US,

0:46:33.680 --> 0:46:36.279
<v Speaker 1>I believe on the phone from Chicago, Ed, good to

0:46:36.360 --> 0:46:39.200
<v Speaker 1>have you back with US. Um, I gotta ask you.

0:46:40.280 --> 0:46:43.839
<v Speaker 1>Are you in Chicago right now? I am? Yes? Okay, Well,

0:46:43.880 --> 0:46:47.680
<v Speaker 1>good to know how Chicago going. Chicago is great. I

0:46:47.719 --> 0:46:50.319
<v Speaker 1>mean it's perfect weather. It's better than when I used

0:46:50.320 --> 0:46:51.719
<v Speaker 1>to live on the East Coast. I don't get any

0:46:51.719 --> 0:46:56.080
<v Speaker 1>of those storms. Tell me about it. Oh god, you

0:46:56.440 --> 0:46:58.200
<v Speaker 1>don't know the half of it. I mean that really

0:46:58.280 --> 0:47:00.640
<v Speaker 1>swept through here. I live in Westchester and it knocked

0:47:00.680 --> 0:47:03.279
<v Speaker 1>out power. I mean it was it was second only

0:47:03.320 --> 0:47:05.920
<v Speaker 1>the Hurricane Sandy, a distant second, but in terms of

0:47:06.040 --> 0:47:10.839
<v Speaker 1>knocking everything out. So any kiss, that's the virus situation there.

0:47:12.320 --> 0:47:15.480
<v Speaker 1>I'm sorry, what did you say, the virus situation? I mean,

0:47:15.920 --> 0:47:18.719
<v Speaker 1>you know in Chicago, I know it's it's pretty rough

0:47:18.880 --> 0:47:21.080
<v Speaker 1>with what's been going on in but it hasn't from

0:47:21.080 --> 0:47:23.600
<v Speaker 1>my understand and grown that much. Where I live, which

0:47:23.640 --> 0:47:26.160
<v Speaker 1>is a small town just west of the city, it's

0:47:26.200 --> 0:47:29.600
<v Speaker 1>really it's quiet here for that um. So, I mean

0:47:29.680 --> 0:47:32.359
<v Speaker 1>everyone's wearing their masks, doing the right thing. But it's

0:47:32.400 --> 0:47:36.200
<v Speaker 1>still the spread overall. In the six months that we'll

0:47:36.239 --> 0:47:39.560
<v Speaker 1>call it that's been really around, my town has only

0:47:39.600 --> 0:47:41.440
<v Speaker 1>had a hundred and thirty two cases. So it's been

0:47:41.480 --> 0:47:44.359
<v Speaker 1>relatively quiet on that front, which is good. Everyone's really

0:47:44.400 --> 0:47:46.440
<v Speaker 1>doing the right thing in the town and keeping it

0:47:46.520 --> 0:47:49.520
<v Speaker 1>from really spreading. And it is interesting to sort of

0:47:49.600 --> 0:47:52.880
<v Speaker 1>see that play out on an almost micro level, right,

0:47:53.000 --> 0:47:55.200
<v Speaker 1>I mean in this sense that when you do see

0:47:55.200 --> 0:47:57.960
<v Speaker 1>a group of people doing you know, what are now

0:47:58.080 --> 0:48:01.400
<v Speaker 1>widely considered by medical experts to be the right things,

0:48:01.520 --> 0:48:05.080
<v Speaker 1>mass social distancing, washing your hands and all that, it

0:48:05.160 --> 0:48:08.680
<v Speaker 1>does tend to work. But I digress. Uh, you are

0:48:08.760 --> 0:48:12.800
<v Speaker 1>the head of exchange traded funds e TS, as Carol mentioned,

0:48:13.080 --> 0:48:16.840
<v Speaker 1>talk to us about this moment, especially for e s G,

0:48:17.160 --> 0:48:21.960
<v Speaker 1>because it feels like we're in a moment that has

0:48:22.040 --> 0:48:25.920
<v Speaker 1>only accelerated over the course of fair to say, has

0:48:25.960 --> 0:48:27.480
<v Speaker 1>been a little bit of a funky year. But but

0:48:27.640 --> 0:48:29.960
<v Speaker 1>what are you seeing in terms of flows and even

0:48:30.080 --> 0:48:34.440
<v Speaker 1>just in terms of general interest. So let's start with

0:48:34.480 --> 0:48:36.160
<v Speaker 1>the general interest with E s G. I mean, I

0:48:36.239 --> 0:48:39.640
<v Speaker 1>think it's it's picked off. What's been interesting about this

0:48:39.840 --> 0:48:42.920
<v Speaker 1>year is companies that are considered more e s G

0:48:43.680 --> 0:48:47.640
<v Speaker 1>have performed better. Now. There's different approaches to e s G.

0:48:47.840 --> 0:48:50.480
<v Speaker 1>You know, there's there's exclusionary, which tends to be a

0:48:50.520 --> 0:48:52.640
<v Speaker 1>little bit different, there's impact, and then there's really sort

0:48:52.680 --> 0:48:56.040
<v Speaker 1>of digging in and finding those companies that are environmental, social,

0:48:56.120 --> 0:48:58.360
<v Speaker 1>and governance. And I think when you do the second

0:48:58.400 --> 0:49:01.439
<v Speaker 1>and third aspect of it, you're really able to find

0:49:01.480 --> 0:49:04.799
<v Speaker 1>companies that are starting to be considered quality across the board.

0:49:04.840 --> 0:49:07.239
<v Speaker 1>And quality in the year like this, when there's been

0:49:07.280 --> 0:49:12.080
<v Speaker 1>so much volatility, has definitely been rewarded in a lot

0:49:12.160 --> 0:49:14.279
<v Speaker 1>of ways because if earnings are going to continue, I know,

0:49:14.840 --> 0:49:17.360
<v Speaker 1>listening to the update of what's driving the Dow or

0:49:17.440 --> 0:49:19.839
<v Speaker 1>driving the stocks today, the companies that were talked about

0:49:19.880 --> 0:49:22.839
<v Speaker 1>were definitely quality companies, and so I think that's really

0:49:22.880 --> 0:49:26.239
<v Speaker 1>helping e s G. As they become more quality and

0:49:26.320 --> 0:49:29.239
<v Speaker 1>more top of mind for people, it's going to become

0:49:29.280 --> 0:49:32.080
<v Speaker 1>more popular as an investment theme. And a company like

0:49:32.200 --> 0:49:35.200
<v Speaker 1>American Century, you know, just to add this to it

0:49:35.640 --> 0:49:38.680
<v Speaker 1>being owned by the Star Wars Institute for Medical Research,

0:49:39.400 --> 0:49:41.600
<v Speaker 1>I mean, we really have a unique understanding of e

0:49:41.800 --> 0:49:43.920
<v Speaker 1>s G and how we apply it across our board.

0:49:45.280 --> 0:49:48.399
<v Speaker 1>So one thing I'm curious about ed is where investors

0:49:48.840 --> 0:49:51.600
<v Speaker 1>are committing money new money right now? What are the

0:49:51.680 --> 0:49:53.520
<v Speaker 1>flows that you guys have seen in and out of

0:49:53.920 --> 0:49:57.719
<v Speaker 1>American Century And I'm curious if the flows how they

0:49:57.800 --> 0:50:00.600
<v Speaker 1>have changed kind of as we've moved our way um

0:50:01.000 --> 0:50:03.919
<v Speaker 1>through for many of us, you know, this work from home,

0:50:04.480 --> 0:50:06.880
<v Speaker 1>stay at home environment and the impact of the virus.

0:50:07.960 --> 0:50:11.440
<v Speaker 1>So it's interesting from an overall perspective from ETFs in

0:50:11.520 --> 0:50:14.400
<v Speaker 1>general and that American century. What you saw was you

0:50:14.480 --> 0:50:17.200
<v Speaker 1>saw a lot of international investing the first part of

0:50:17.200 --> 0:50:21.200
<v Speaker 1>the year and that has substantially faded and gone to negative.

0:50:21.280 --> 0:50:23.680
<v Speaker 1>So money's flown out of that. And where you've seen

0:50:23.719 --> 0:50:25.960
<v Speaker 1>money going is I don't want to it's not what

0:50:26.000 --> 0:50:27.680
<v Speaker 1>I would call a flight to safety, but it's flight

0:50:27.760 --> 0:50:31.240
<v Speaker 1>to some higher yielding bonds who corporates across the board,

0:50:31.520 --> 0:50:33.759
<v Speaker 1>as well as some aggregate but the US it's really

0:50:33.840 --> 0:50:37.560
<v Speaker 1>been focused specifically on the US market. And then if

0:50:37.600 --> 0:50:39.919
<v Speaker 1>you look specifically, it's what you've been what you guys

0:50:39.960 --> 0:50:43.000
<v Speaker 1>I'm sure have been talking about, which is technology, right,

0:50:43.080 --> 0:50:45.640
<v Speaker 1>whether it's you know, from fang stocks across the board,

0:50:46.120 --> 0:50:48.640
<v Speaker 1>people are going into that and even some of our

0:50:48.680 --> 0:50:51.560
<v Speaker 1>ETFs we launched a new ETF earlier this year in

0:50:51.600 --> 0:50:55.040
<v Speaker 1>the middle of the pandemic um just focused dynamic growth,

0:50:55.120 --> 0:50:58.160
<v Speaker 1>which has some of that technology exposure. I mean, it's

0:50:58.239 --> 0:51:01.680
<v Speaker 1>been gathering assets fairly quickly for a new product, and

0:51:01.840 --> 0:51:03.839
<v Speaker 1>quite frankly, it's a new structure for you guys. It's

0:51:03.840 --> 0:51:06.080
<v Speaker 1>a semi transparent structure, which was the first of its

0:51:06.200 --> 0:51:08.919
<v Speaker 1>kind just to get out there, and people are drawing

0:51:09.000 --> 0:51:12.000
<v Speaker 1>interest to that more than anything else that I've launched

0:51:12.040 --> 0:51:17.440
<v Speaker 1>in a long time. What does that mean? Semi transparent? So,

0:51:17.640 --> 0:51:20.880
<v Speaker 1>as you know, with with ets, holdings generally or displayed

0:51:20.920 --> 0:51:23.680
<v Speaker 1>daily or a function whether it's called the basket, which

0:51:23.719 --> 0:51:27.239
<v Speaker 1>shows you all the holdings. These semi transparent structures do

0:51:27.360 --> 0:51:30.160
<v Speaker 1>not show the holdings daily. That is the only difference.

0:51:30.400 --> 0:51:33.040
<v Speaker 1>And so what that means basically is the only time

0:51:33.120 --> 0:51:35.680
<v Speaker 1>the investor can see what's in the fund is either

0:51:35.800 --> 0:51:38.360
<v Speaker 1>on a monthly basis with the top ten holdings or

0:51:38.440 --> 0:51:41.160
<v Speaker 1>from us when we release the quarterly holdings fifteen days

0:51:41.160 --> 0:51:44.400
<v Speaker 1>after quarter in tell they'll see exactly what's in it

0:51:44.600 --> 0:51:46.680
<v Speaker 1>just quickly thirty seconds. Why would I want that over

0:51:46.840 --> 0:51:50.760
<v Speaker 1>a fully transparent well, if you're really looking for something

0:51:50.840 --> 0:51:55.919
<v Speaker 1>that has the portfolio manager's best ideas without the fear

0:51:55.920 --> 0:51:58.520
<v Speaker 1>of front running, so they can really offer potentially an

0:51:58.520 --> 0:52:01.560
<v Speaker 1>alpha generating portfolio similar to what you'd get in a

0:52:01.600 --> 0:52:04.600
<v Speaker 1>mutual fund, which you can't get an Yeah, that's exactly

0:52:04.680 --> 0:52:08.240
<v Speaker 1>why you'd want it. Okay, interesting, interesting, all right, Ed Rosenberg,

0:52:08.320 --> 0:52:10.040
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much. Really good to catch up with

0:52:10.120 --> 0:52:12.480
<v Speaker 1>you get a view of what's happening there on the

0:52:12.640 --> 0:52:16.240
<v Speaker 1>ground just outside Chicago. Ed Rosenberg, head of exchange traded

0:52:16.280 --> 0:52:20.360
<v Speaker 1>funds for American Century Investments. I mean, look this that

0:52:21.120 --> 0:52:23.360
<v Speaker 1>corner I was going to call at the corner of

0:52:23.400 --> 0:52:25.520
<v Speaker 1>the market, like that side of the market has just

0:52:25.719 --> 0:52:28.320
<v Speaker 1>exploded when it comes to et s, I was reminded

0:52:28.320 --> 0:52:31.160
<v Speaker 1>about of that when you were out and hanging out

0:52:31.239 --> 0:52:33.640
<v Speaker 1>with miss Scarlett food. When she was with me, she

0:52:33.719 --> 0:52:36.600
<v Speaker 1>knows so much about Somebody was treating me like, when

0:52:36.600 --> 0:52:38.880
<v Speaker 1>are you gonna bring it back? It coming back? Scarlett?

0:52:39.560 --> 0:52:42.719
<v Speaker 1>I know that's her show. It's her show, ma'am. Hopefully soon.

0:52:43.160 --> 0:52:45.600
<v Speaker 1>Thanks so much for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download

0:52:45.600 --> 0:52:48.520
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