1
00:00:01,480 --> 00:00:05,439
Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast podcast.

2
00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:08,920
Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

3
00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:28,360
Speaker 2: people over for a second. Goodness, Hello and welcome to

4
00:00:28,400 --> 00:00:31,600
Speaker 2: the Action Network Podcast presented by FanDuel. I'm Sean Zerula,

5
00:00:31,680 --> 00:00:33,400
Speaker 2: joined today by Billy Ward. We're going to help you

6
00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:37,600
Speaker 2: break down the very early morning UFC card going down

7
00:00:37,720 --> 00:00:41,440
Speaker 2: at the Singapore Indoor Stadium in Singapore, starting at five

8
00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:45,920
Speaker 2: a m. Eastern time. Seven prelim, six main card fights.

9
00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:48,720
Speaker 2: This is an early one. Kegs, eggs and broken legs

10
00:00:48,800 --> 00:00:52,280
Speaker 2: always love the early Saturday morning fights. Billy told me

11
00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:55,639
Speaker 2: he's gonna wake up, smoke a brisket and enjoy his day,

12
00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:57,880
Speaker 2: and I think that's a great plan. See what I

13
00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:00,680
Speaker 2: have planned for tomorrow morning. We're gonna be drinking at

14
00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:03,440
Speaker 2: seven am with breakfast or not. But in terms of

15
00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:06,960
Speaker 2: the main event, Max Holloway a massive favorite over the

16
00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:10,120
Speaker 2: Korean zombie TKZ Chan Sung Jung.

17
00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:11,880
Speaker 3: Could be a retirement fight for Jung.

18
00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:16,480
Speaker 2: This is his tenth consecutive main event, probably a record

19
00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:20,960
Speaker 2: for a non champion in the UFC, so certainly, you know,

20
00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:24,360
Speaker 2: speaks to his level of star power. Max Holloway obviously

21
00:01:24,840 --> 00:01:27,840
Speaker 2: one of the most popular fighters in the sport one

22
00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:30,920
Speaker 2: of the biggest stars in the UFC in terms of

23
00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:35,240
Speaker 2: betting this matchup and betting Max Holloway as a significant favorite,

24
00:01:35,240 --> 00:01:38,560
Speaker 2: a minus eight hundred favorite minus seven to fifty the

25
00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:42,720
Speaker 2: best available odds out there. That's basically where I projected

26
00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:45,600
Speaker 2: the line. It's hard to get beyond that kind of

27
00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:48,920
Speaker 2: pricing because you're getting to slipping on a banana peel

28
00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:52,000
Speaker 2: type of territory when you get to that level of

29
00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:55,320
Speaker 2: pricing in a high level MMA fight, I think Max

30
00:01:55,360 --> 00:01:57,760
Speaker 2: Holloway certainly deserves to be this big of a favorite.

31
00:01:57,800 --> 00:02:00,840
Speaker 2: I don't really see where Junk beats him aside from

32
00:02:00,920 --> 00:02:05,880
Speaker 2: landing essentially a flash knockout, but Holloway the much faster hands,

33
00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:08,799
Speaker 2: the much better athlete, especially at the stage of their

34
00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:12,320
Speaker 2: respective careers. I think Korean Zombie, who's basically fought one

35
00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:14,919
Speaker 2: time a year for the past five or six years

36
00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:19,320
Speaker 2: and seemingly has regressed in his recent fights, I just

37
00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:21,919
Speaker 2: think another year off a bit slower, a bit more

38
00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:24,200
Speaker 2: cage russ where Halloway coming off of a win over

39
00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:27,119
Speaker 2: Arnold Allen going to continue to look sharp and he's

40
00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:29,639
Speaker 2: basically wiped out the rest of the division. Aside from

41
00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:32,560
Speaker 2: his three losses to Alexander Volkanovsky. So on the feet,

42
00:02:32,760 --> 00:02:36,160
Speaker 2: I think Halloway wins clear minutes, clear volume advantage, and

43
00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:38,120
Speaker 2: I think his hand speed is going to prove too much.

44
00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:41,280
Speaker 2: And similar to that Volkanovski fight against the kay z

45
00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:46,200
Speaker 2: could see Holloway winning via attritional finish, just an accumulation

46
00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:49,839
Speaker 2: of damage that he's being unreturned. On the other end,

47
00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:52,080
Speaker 2: if Zombie wants to win this fight, I think he

48
00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:53,640
Speaker 2: needs to grapple, and I think he needs to do

49
00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:56,200
Speaker 2: so successfully like he did in his fight against Danny Gay.

50
00:02:56,520 --> 00:03:00,239
Speaker 2: Needs to hit takedowns, get top control, win minutes. It's

51
00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:03,440
Speaker 2: with top position or as I said, land a flash knockout.

52
00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:06,840
Speaker 2: We've actually seen Holloway's chin starting to crack just a

53
00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:08,400
Speaker 2: little bit, knocked down for the first time in his

54
00:03:08,480 --> 00:03:12,320
Speaker 2: career and his loss to Volkanovski clipped wobbled multiple times

55
00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:16,080
Speaker 2: in his fights against Yari Rodriguez Arnold Allen, so maybe

56
00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:19,960
Speaker 2: the chin for Halloway starting to go just to touch.

57
00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:22,480
Speaker 2: He's absorbed an average of about one hundred and thirty

58
00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:25,919
Speaker 2: strikes in each of his past nine fights, so tons

59
00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:28,120
Speaker 2: of damage worn throughout his career. One of the most

60
00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:30,320
Speaker 2: durable athletes in the sports, some of the best cardio

61
00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:33,040
Speaker 2: in the sport too, and that's why I don't really

62
00:03:33,040 --> 00:03:35,640
Speaker 2: see many pass for TKZ to win this fight, and

63
00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:38,720
Speaker 2: would justify Halloway as a substantial favorite. But in terms

64
00:03:38,720 --> 00:03:41,360
Speaker 2: of how I want to bet this matchup, Halloway inside

65
00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:44,400
Speaker 2: the distance at minus one twenty five, also his knockout

66
00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:46,960
Speaker 2: prop at minus one fifteen I think are five bets.

67
00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:49,840
Speaker 2: Fine Bets projected those closer to about minus one fifty

68
00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:53,200
Speaker 2: and minus one thirty five, respectively. So Holland's fin or

69
00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:56,560
Speaker 2: Halloway's finish props would expect the later finish around three

70
00:03:56,640 --> 00:03:58,720
Speaker 2: or four five, like I said, with the cumulative damage,

71
00:03:58,720 --> 00:04:02,000
Speaker 2: but just think the athleticism gap between these two is

72
00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:05,320
Speaker 2: pretty substantial at this stage of their respective careers. Billy,

73
00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:07,480
Speaker 2: are you playing this main event at all? And how

74
00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:11,400
Speaker 2: are you anticipating getting things started tomorrow morning?

75
00:04:11,680 --> 00:04:13,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know you've almost talked me into the main

76
00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:15,760
Speaker 1: event with your point. But yeah, as you mentioned, definitely

77
00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:18,480
Speaker 1: gonna wake up early, get the smoker going. It'll be nice,

78
00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:20,760
Speaker 1: get some fights out of the way, be done by noon,

79
00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:22,800
Speaker 1: get to go spend some time doing anything else on

80
00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:25,640
Speaker 1: a Saturday but yeah, I mean you mentioned the star

81
00:04:25,720 --> 00:04:28,320
Speaker 1: power of Chansung Jung, and there's kind of two ways

82
00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:30,440
Speaker 1: to become a star. You can become a star because

83
00:04:30,720 --> 00:04:33,160
Speaker 1: you are so good and so exciting, or you can

84
00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:35,240
Speaker 1: be a star because you make your opponent look so

85
00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:38,200
Speaker 1: good and so exciting, and Changsung Jung kind of falls

86
00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:40,680
Speaker 1: in that second category, right, Like the zombie nickname is

87
00:04:40,760 --> 00:04:45,080
Speaker 1: just because he absorbs hillacious beatings and keeps moving forward,

88
00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:48,400
Speaker 1: which is a just horrible matchup for Max Holloway, the

89
00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:52,080
Speaker 1: UFC's all time significant strike leader. He's almost doubled up

90
00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:55,039
Speaker 1: the next closest person in career significant strikes. He's at

91
00:04:55,120 --> 00:04:57,960
Speaker 1: like thirty two hundred and number two is eighteen hundred.

92
00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:00,880
Speaker 1: It wouldn't shock me to see him hit Zombie two

93
00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:04,520
Speaker 1: hundred plus times in this one significantly. So if there was,

94
00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:06,240
Speaker 1: you know, outless you had where you can take some

95
00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:09,160
Speaker 1: player prop style stuff and take the over on significant strikes,

96
00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:11,000
Speaker 1: I don't know how a book could set this high

97
00:05:11,080 --> 00:05:13,600
Speaker 1: enough that I would be on the opposite side of that,

98
00:05:14,240 --> 00:05:16,200
Speaker 1: But I get your angle on the stoppage. I just

99
00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:18,760
Speaker 1: worry that Holloway doesn't not only does he not have

100
00:05:18,839 --> 00:05:20,240
Speaker 1: a ton of power, but he doesn't really try to

101
00:05:20,320 --> 00:05:21,839
Speaker 1: knock people out. He's just trying to touch you as

102
00:05:21,880 --> 00:05:24,360
Speaker 1: many times as he can. With it being likely the

103
00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:26,960
Speaker 1: last fight for Korean Zombie, you know, does he power

104
00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:29,120
Speaker 1: through do the refs and the doctors give him a

105
00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:32,400
Speaker 1: little bit more leeway than they probably should. That scares

106
00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:34,800
Speaker 1: me just enough that I wouldn't take the knockout prop

107
00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:37,840
Speaker 1: until we got to maybe plus money. And you mentioned

108
00:05:37,880 --> 00:05:39,880
Speaker 1: the grappling. I think if that happens, it's probably gonna

109
00:05:39,880 --> 00:05:42,000
Speaker 1: come early. It's just hard to grapple down the stretch

110
00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:44,600
Speaker 1: after getting hit one hundred times. So if we could

111
00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:48,400
Speaker 1: catch Holloway live at minus three hundred minus four hundred

112
00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:50,560
Speaker 1: after a round or two, I'd be interested. I don't

113
00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:52,520
Speaker 1: see it getting much better than that unless he almost

114
00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:55,200
Speaker 1: gets knocked out, like right off the bat. So those

115
00:05:55,200 --> 00:05:56,640
Speaker 1: are a couple ways I'm looking to play it, but

116
00:05:57,160 --> 00:05:59,320
Speaker 1: this is one more just gonna enjoy it, love it.

117
00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:01,840
Speaker 1: For DFS. Max Holloway's going to score a million points

118
00:06:01,880 --> 00:06:04,760
Speaker 1: no matter what scoring system you're using, So that's more

119
00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:06,400
Speaker 1: my interest this week.

120
00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:08,160
Speaker 3: Billy, I'm a little dispointy.

121
00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:09,560
Speaker 2: You know, we've been doing these podcasts for a while

122
00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:10,680
Speaker 2: and I feel like I have a good feel for

123
00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:13,599
Speaker 2: your betting style. I'm disappointed that you didn't have a

124
00:06:13,640 --> 00:06:15,720
Speaker 2: round four or five or decision prop. This seemed like

125
00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:18,520
Speaker 2: a perfect queued up play where Holloway is going to

126
00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:20,080
Speaker 2: land a ton of volume, and I think the finish

127
00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:22,479
Speaker 2: does come later if it comes at all, and the

128
00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:24,640
Speaker 2: decision equity bakes into that. Bat too was the was

129
00:06:24,680 --> 00:06:26,800
Speaker 2: the precious to juice. You're just not a bet that

130
00:06:26,839 --> 00:06:27,719
Speaker 2: interests to do for this one.

131
00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:29,640
Speaker 1: It's too juiced because he's I want to say, like

132
00:06:29,680 --> 00:06:31,760
Speaker 1: minus five hundred to win by a decision or something

133
00:06:31,800 --> 00:06:33,760
Speaker 1: crazy like that. So you have to then get a

134
00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:35,480
Speaker 1: worse line than that when you get rounds four and

135
00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:39,400
Speaker 1: five as well. So it's I haven't looked recently. It's

136
00:06:39,440 --> 00:06:41,719
Speaker 1: probably plus ev if I wanted to run the numbers

137
00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:43,560
Speaker 1: on what I think was going to happen, I'm just

138
00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:45,760
Speaker 1: not going to be in the business of laying three,

139
00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:49,360
Speaker 1: four or five hundred odds on almost any MMA fight.

140
00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:51,520
Speaker 1: Make that a parlay piece. Sure, if you know you're

141
00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:54,400
Speaker 1: interested in doing some parlays, that would be an excellent piece,

142
00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:56,440
Speaker 1: a little bit better juice than if you played him

143
00:06:56,480 --> 00:06:59,799
Speaker 1: straight up. But as a solo bet. It's a lot.

144
00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:01,680
Speaker 2: Let's move on to our fight of the night, the

145
00:07:01,680 --> 00:07:04,039
Speaker 2: co main event between Ryan Span and Anthony Smith, a

146
00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:08,120
Speaker 2: rematch from a couple of years ago. Span the minus

147
00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:10,600
Speaker 2: one thirty favorite here when they ran this fight as

148
00:07:10,600 --> 00:07:14,160
Speaker 2: a main event on a UFC fight night back in

149
00:07:15,000 --> 00:07:18,440
Speaker 2: September of twenty twenty one. Smith closed as a minus

150
00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:20,800
Speaker 2: one thirty favorite. That was a five round fight. The

151
00:07:20,840 --> 00:07:24,600
Speaker 2: five round fight certainly favored Smith more so than a

152
00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:28,320
Speaker 2: three round fight does. But Ryan Span, generally speaking, is

153
00:07:28,360 --> 00:07:32,320
Speaker 2: an early finisher, and when those early finishes don't materialize,

154
00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:34,680
Speaker 2: his opponents tend to take over the fight with better cardio.

155
00:07:34,760 --> 00:07:37,920
Speaker 2: I think that's the biggest advantage that Anthony Smith has here,

156
00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:41,280
Speaker 2: or maybe the two biggest advantages durability and cardio. But

157
00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:44,080
Speaker 2: I think in recent fights it's pretty evident, and since

158
00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:48,000
Speaker 2: their last fight, it's very evident that Anthony smith athleticism

159
00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:51,560
Speaker 2: has dropped off to a fairly significant degree underwent surgery

160
00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:55,520
Speaker 2: for his knees. So I actually think in this fight,

161
00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:57,080
Speaker 2: and this is a bit of an odd take, but

162
00:07:57,800 --> 00:08:01,360
Speaker 2: looking at Ryan SPAN's recent career history, the guys he's fought,

163
00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:04,240
Speaker 2: I think his decision equity is being a little bit

164
00:08:04,320 --> 00:08:07,800
Speaker 2: underrated here. And you know, people tend to think Ryan

165
00:08:07,880 --> 00:08:11,920
Speaker 2: Span early finish her bust. But against a potentially declining

166
00:08:11,960 --> 00:08:14,920
Speaker 2: athlete like Smith, who is durable, who can take a punch,

167
00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:18,320
Speaker 2: who will stick around, I actually think Span has the

168
00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:20,760
Speaker 2: potential to just be the much bigger hitter to win

169
00:08:20,880 --> 00:08:23,120
Speaker 2: very clear minutes, at least for the first seven or

170
00:08:23,160 --> 00:08:27,280
Speaker 2: eight minutes before Smith potentially takes over down the stretch

171
00:08:27,320 --> 00:08:29,680
Speaker 2: for the final or for the second half of the fight.

172
00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:33,040
Speaker 2: So looking at the guys that Ryan Span has fought recently,

173
00:08:33,720 --> 00:08:38,520
Speaker 2: obviously Smith, but Nikita Krailove, Dom Reyes, Misha Serkanov, Johnny Walker,

174
00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:41,680
Speaker 2: these are all guys with a very similar arch type

175
00:08:41,720 --> 00:08:44,440
Speaker 2: as Ryan Span. Early finishers who tend to fade. But

176
00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:47,720
Speaker 2: the last time against went against somebody relatively durable other

177
00:08:47,760 --> 00:08:50,000
Speaker 2: than Smith was Sam Albi and that fight went to

178
00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:52,040
Speaker 2: a decision, and he's won a couple of decisions in

179
00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:55,440
Speaker 2: his career. So Ryan Spanned by decision of plus thirteen

180
00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:59,360
Speaker 2: hundred absolutely bet my favorite prop squad pick for this week.

181
00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:01,679
Speaker 2: I made this to plus nine hundred. You look at

182
00:09:01,679 --> 00:09:04,680
Speaker 2: the offshore markets, this prop is used much closer to

183
00:09:04,679 --> 00:09:07,800
Speaker 2: plus nine hundred than the domestic markets a plus thirteen hundred.

184
00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:11,000
Speaker 2: So I think Ryan Span can absolutely win a decision here,

185
00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:13,720
Speaker 2: maybe even some decision only bets as well, so you

186
00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:15,719
Speaker 2: don't lose your bet in the event that it does

187
00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:17,600
Speaker 2: go to fifteen minute or in the event that it

188
00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:20,280
Speaker 2: ends inside the distance. But if it goes all fifteen minutes,

189
00:09:20,600 --> 00:09:23,439
Speaker 2: I think the pricing discrepancy for Smith by decision versus

190
00:09:23,440 --> 00:09:27,400
Speaker 2: Span by decision is actually a little bit overweight towards Smith,

191
00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:29,800
Speaker 2: and I think SPAN's chances of winning a decision or

192
00:09:29,800 --> 00:09:31,000
Speaker 2: a bit underrated here.

193
00:09:31,080 --> 00:09:33,480
Speaker 3: So, Billy, I know you like Ryan Span as well.

194
00:09:33,520 --> 00:09:35,959
Speaker 2: I doubt that you expect him to win by decision,

195
00:09:35,960 --> 00:09:38,080
Speaker 2: but at plus thirteen hundred, you don't really need him

196
00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:39,920
Speaker 2: to win at a high clip in order to cover

197
00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:42,200
Speaker 2: that bar. Tell me why you like Ryan Span as

198
00:09:42,200 --> 00:09:43,160
Speaker 2: they run this match back.

199
00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:46,480
Speaker 1: No, I love the decision line. I messaged you earlier

200
00:09:46,520 --> 00:09:48,400
Speaker 1: in the week that his inside the distance was like

201
00:09:48,559 --> 00:09:51,000
Speaker 1: five cents off his money line, which is just insane. Like,

202
00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:54,200
Speaker 1: I get why it is, but anyone can win a decision.

203
00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:57,120
Speaker 1: Stuff can happen, Guys can survive. But no, I think

204
00:09:57,120 --> 00:10:00,000
Speaker 1: Anthony Smith is just physically shot, especially since that broken

205
00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:03,520
Speaker 1: leg in the Anklia fight looked horrible against Johnny Walker,

206
00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:05,840
Speaker 1: like just look like he was moving underwater, just never

207
00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:07,959
Speaker 1: really got it going. And then you know, I know

208
00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:09,840
Speaker 1: a lot of people probably didn't watch this, but he

209
00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:12,720
Speaker 1: competed against Glover to Shera in a Fight Pass Invitational

210
00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:15,680
Speaker 1: grappling match, and if you didn't know who these people were,

211
00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:18,520
Speaker 1: you would have sworn Anthony Smith was the older, retired

212
00:10:18,559 --> 00:10:22,000
Speaker 1: fighter while Glover tech Era was the younger, more active guy.

213
00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:25,160
Speaker 1: And that's scary against someone with the physicality of span,

214
00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:29,079
Speaker 1: you know, massive power, really fast, strong, all the physical tools.

215
00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:31,400
Speaker 1: I love your angle and I'm actually gonna sprinkle on

216
00:10:31,440 --> 00:10:33,800
Speaker 1: that too, But the money line at minus one thirty,

217
00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:35,760
Speaker 1: I don't want to get cute. Could he catch him

218
00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:38,160
Speaker 1: in a guillotine because Anthony Smith takes a bad shot

219
00:10:38,240 --> 00:10:40,840
Speaker 1: of course, knock out probably the most likely, just because

220
00:10:40,880 --> 00:10:43,800
Speaker 1: he blitzes him. But I get your decision angle as well,

221
00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:45,960
Speaker 1: So my main bet will just be the money line.

222
00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:48,320
Speaker 1: But do love where you're going with that, because he's

223
00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:50,679
Speaker 1: tough enough to survive but might not have the physical

224
00:10:51,280 --> 00:10:53,840
Speaker 1: Anthony Smith that is, it's tough enough to survive, but

225
00:10:53,840 --> 00:10:55,760
Speaker 1: probably doesn't have the physical tools to make it too

226
00:10:55,760 --> 00:10:56,680
Speaker 1: competitive anymore.

227
00:10:57,120 --> 00:10:59,079
Speaker 2: I believe all the Spans finishes have occurred in the

228
00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:01,280
Speaker 2: first seven minutes his fights as well, as I said,

229
00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:04,640
Speaker 2: he does gas out. But if Smith can survive that

230
00:11:04,720 --> 00:11:06,840
Speaker 2: first seven minutes, I actually think this one has.

231
00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:08,280
Speaker 3: A decent chance of going to a decision.

232
00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:10,720
Speaker 2: So if you're betting this fight to end inside the distance,

233
00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:12,760
Speaker 2: I'd go with the under one and a half as

234
00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:16,360
Speaker 2: opposed to betting the juice up fight nz ITD. Maybe

235
00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:18,360
Speaker 2: Smith round two round three props would be how I'd

236
00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:21,880
Speaker 2: play Smith. Smith live after round one is probably the

237
00:11:21,880 --> 00:11:24,160
Speaker 2: only way I'd bet the underdog in this fight. But yeah,

238
00:11:24,280 --> 00:11:27,679
Speaker 2: Ryan Span, I do think the price flipping base off

239
00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:31,240
Speaker 2: of the athleticism gap that has clearly grown since the

240
00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:33,000
Speaker 2: last fight, and also the fact that this is a

241
00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:35,559
Speaker 2: three round fight instead of a five round fight. I

242
00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:38,760
Speaker 2: think both of those factors certainly help Ryan Spance. A

243
00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:40,640
Speaker 2: billy going with Ryan Span on the money line, I'm

244
00:11:40,679 --> 00:11:43,880
Speaker 2: taking him by decision at plus thirteen hundred. That will

245
00:11:43,920 --> 00:11:46,120
Speaker 2: be in my round robins and gonna sprinkle that for

246
00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:49,959
Speaker 2: about a tenth of a unit as well. Let's move

247
00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:52,760
Speaker 2: along here to our favorite underdog beats, so we've got

248
00:11:52,800 --> 00:11:55,240
Speaker 2: a consensus underdog. Billy, I'm gonna let you go ahead

249
00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:58,160
Speaker 2: and take this one away. Tell me why we both

250
00:11:58,240 --> 00:12:00,600
Speaker 2: like Lucas Abreshki for Saturday Night.

251
00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:04,600
Speaker 1: So sometimes I'm betting on a fighter because I think

252
00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:07,400
Speaker 1: they're good or I think they bring something skill set wise,

253
00:12:08,000 --> 00:12:11,040
Speaker 1: and other times I'm just betting against their opponent, and

254
00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:13,200
Speaker 1: this is one of the latter ones. I think Waldo

255
00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:15,719
Speaker 1: Cortez Acosta is kind of lucky to be in the

256
00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:19,040
Speaker 1: position he's in. Record wise, He's I want to say,

257
00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:21,800
Speaker 1: two and one in the UFC, but he beat Chase

258
00:12:21,800 --> 00:12:25,479
Speaker 1: Sherman and Jared Vanderra, both fairly low level, boring decisions.

259
00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:29,120
Speaker 1: He's a former baseball player, and like normally you say

260
00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:31,600
Speaker 1: baseball isn't his base, but he actually kind of punches

261
00:12:31,640 --> 00:12:36,040
Speaker 1: like he's pitching a baseball, which is interesting, but there's

262
00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:38,400
Speaker 1: a reason we don't see like anyone else doing that.

263
00:12:38,880 --> 00:12:41,360
Speaker 1: And then he was really exposed against Marcos Virgerio Delima

264
00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:43,840
Speaker 1: in the last one. So it's not so much that

265
00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:46,400
Speaker 1: I'm that big on Lucas Bresky, who I think is

266
00:12:46,720 --> 00:12:49,920
Speaker 1: it best to low to mid level UFC heavyweight, but

267
00:12:50,000 --> 00:12:52,120
Speaker 1: he fought some tougher guys. He's zero and two, lost

268
00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:55,960
Speaker 1: a split decision to Martine Boudai, unanimous decision to Carl Williams,

269
00:12:55,960 --> 00:12:58,360
Speaker 1: who took him down the whole time. Cortez Acosta isn't

270
00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:01,120
Speaker 1: going to grapple, and this fight is fairly likely to

271
00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:03,520
Speaker 1: go to a decision, which is rare for heavyweight fights.

272
00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:05,959
Speaker 1: And you know, systemically we always talk about this. If

273
00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:07,679
Speaker 1: we think a decision is likely to happen, and one

274
00:13:07,679 --> 00:13:10,160
Speaker 1: guy's plus two hundred, that's the ticket I want in

275
00:13:10,160 --> 00:13:12,000
Speaker 1: my hand when they're reading the scorecards. I don't want

276
00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:15,559
Speaker 1: that heavily juiced line. So really nothing about Lucas Breski

277
00:13:15,640 --> 00:13:18,840
Speaker 1: that I'm super excited about. But there's a big fade

278
00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:21,840
Speaker 1: for me on cortezla Coosta as a minus two fifty

279
00:13:21,920 --> 00:13:24,679
Speaker 1: or so favorite against almost anyone at this point.

280
00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:26,960
Speaker 2: Well, Billy, you know, you tick the boxes that we

281
00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:28,800
Speaker 2: talk about underdog in a fight that choots to go

282
00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:32,400
Speaker 2: to decision, and frankly for heavyweight minus one twenty five

283
00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:34,200
Speaker 2: to go to a decision, I would say is heavily

284
00:13:34,240 --> 00:13:36,760
Speaker 2: favored to go to a decision. Heavyweight fights and inside

285
00:13:36,760 --> 00:13:39,560
Speaker 2: the distance close to seventy seventy five percent of the time,

286
00:13:39,640 --> 00:13:41,760
Speaker 2: So getting minus money on a heavyweight fight to go

287
00:13:41,840 --> 00:13:44,440
Speaker 2: to a decision indicates that I think it's pretty heavily

288
00:13:44,440 --> 00:13:48,199
Speaker 2: favored to go to a decision relative to the divisional average.

289
00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:52,400
Speaker 2: BRESHKEI lost a split decision of Martin Budaye. I was

290
00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:54,920
Speaker 2: on Budaye in that fight. He outlanded Budaye two to

291
00:13:54,920 --> 00:13:57,960
Speaker 2: one on strikes that probably should have gone Breshki's way.

292
00:13:58,480 --> 00:14:00,600
Speaker 2: He was then taken down, as he said, by Carl

293
00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:03,760
Speaker 2: Williams outr wrestled. He has the wrestling advantage in this

294
00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:07,120
Speaker 2: fight and all of the grappling upside. Cortez Acosta taken

295
00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:11,080
Speaker 2: down by Virgilia Daimau also taken down by Chase Sherman.

296
00:14:12,160 --> 00:14:15,160
Speaker 2: That is pretty telling for me. I think Breshke can

297
00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:18,560
Speaker 2: absolutely grapple him here. All of the grappling upside, and

298
00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:21,560
Speaker 2: if Breshky is not going to get grappled himself like

299
00:14:21,640 --> 00:14:24,440
Speaker 2: he was against Williams, I think the striking as at

300
00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:27,400
Speaker 2: a minimum fifty to fifty if not, would favor him

301
00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:29,640
Speaker 2: on the feet. So have no idea why Breshky is

302
00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:32,960
Speaker 2: the underdog in this spot. Absolutely my favorite underdog in

303
00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:35,520
Speaker 2: the card, maybe even my favorite money line bet on

304
00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:37,680
Speaker 2: the card. As I said, all of the grappling upside

305
00:14:38,080 --> 00:14:40,640
Speaker 2: and the striking at worst I think is fifty to fifty.

306
00:14:40,760 --> 00:14:44,760
Speaker 2: So Lukash Breshki here a consensus underdog play for me

307
00:14:44,800 --> 00:14:47,080
Speaker 2: and Billy. I'm gonna give about one more Jarno Erins

308
00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:50,080
Speaker 2: in the first fight on the card. Again, I think

309
00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:54,120
Speaker 2: another fight where the striking is essentially fifty to fifty

310
00:14:54,680 --> 00:14:57,960
Speaker 2: and Erins probably has the grappling upside. I don't expect

311
00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:00,640
Speaker 2: him to necessarily pursue it, but you do look his record.

312
00:15:00,920 --> 00:15:03,040
Speaker 2: He has a number of submission wins on there. Sungwu

313
00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:06,240
Speaker 2: Choi is a good boxer, but he's shown significant durability

314
00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:09,240
Speaker 2: concerns in his recent fights. He's getting clipped in fights

315
00:15:09,240 --> 00:15:11,320
Speaker 2: that he's winning. He's, like I said, he's a very

316
00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:13,480
Speaker 2: good boxer. He tends to win minutes, he puts up

317
00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:17,240
Speaker 2: good volume. But he's getting clipped in every single one

318
00:15:17,280 --> 00:15:20,560
Speaker 2: of these fights now and it's a big concern and

319
00:15:20,640 --> 00:15:23,760
Speaker 2: he can definitely lose rounds that he's on the way

320
00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:26,000
Speaker 2: to winning just by getting clipped and knocked down. And

321
00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:29,280
Speaker 2: as I said, Aaron's retains all of the grappling upside

322
00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:31,480
Speaker 2: in this matchup too, So a couple underdogs for me,

323
00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:34,400
Speaker 2: Aaron's and breshkeep who I think can keep the striking

324
00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:37,480
Speaker 2: competitive at a minimum and retain all of the grappling

325
00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:39,400
Speaker 2: upside at plus money.

326
00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:41,480
Speaker 1: You know, we talk frequently if we think it's going

327
00:15:41,520 --> 00:15:44,040
Speaker 1: to be a decision, we like to have underdogs. I

328
00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:45,840
Speaker 1: think there's a correlayer to that where if we think

329
00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:48,720
Speaker 1: it's going to be a mostly striking fight, it's almost

330
00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:51,800
Speaker 1: always better to have underdogs because it's a lot easier

331
00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:54,440
Speaker 1: for judges to tell who's winning in the grappling. And

332
00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:56,440
Speaker 1: when we think it's going to be a reasonably close

333
00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:59,200
Speaker 1: striking fight, even if you know one fighter looks a

334
00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:02,680
Speaker 1: little bit better, those get judged incorrectly all the time,

335
00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:05,360
Speaker 1: and unless someone's getting knocked down or cut up real badly,

336
00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:07,280
Speaker 1: you could almost flip a coin on a lot of

337
00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:09,520
Speaker 1: these striking only abouts. And even if one fighter lambs

338
00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:11,800
Speaker 1: ten or twenty more strikes, that doesn't mean the judges

339
00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:14,200
Speaker 1: see that. They don't see the stats, they're not counting along.

340
00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:16,520
Speaker 1: So both of your picks kind of reference that to

341
00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:19,160
Speaker 1: an extent, and I think that's something that systemically we

342
00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:20,000
Speaker 1: should be looking.

343
00:16:19,760 --> 00:16:20,280
Speaker 3: At as well.

344
00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:22,480
Speaker 2: Absolutely, and that's why I'm going to take the guy

345
00:16:22,480 --> 00:16:24,680
Speaker 2: who you know, in theory is grappling upside. All I

346
00:16:24,720 --> 00:16:26,320
Speaker 2: need him to do is hold the fight up against

347
00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:28,880
Speaker 2: the cage for one minute out of the five minute round,

348
00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:31,280
Speaker 2: or just laying a couple of clinch strikes, and if

349
00:16:31,280 --> 00:16:33,080
Speaker 2: the rest of the round is competitive, you know, the

350
00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:35,680
Speaker 2: judges might say, okay, well you had that one minute

351
00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:37,600
Speaker 2: of control time and some clinch strikes that might be

352
00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:40,600
Speaker 2: enough to separate it. So just mixing up the martial

353
00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:43,240
Speaker 2: arts I think is important sometimes and just you know,

354
00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:45,440
Speaker 2: doing more being well around and giving your opponent more looks,

355
00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:47,960
Speaker 2: but also giving the judges, you know, more optics that

356
00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:50,120
Speaker 2: you're actually trying to find different ways to win the fight.

357
00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:52,360
Speaker 2: And instead of just you know, basically standing there and

358
00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:54,600
Speaker 2: sparring for fifteen minutes, you know, being the guy who's

359
00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:57,600
Speaker 2: trying to mix it up, pushing forward I think certainly helps.

360
00:16:57,600 --> 00:16:59,320
Speaker 2: And what could be a fifty to fifty round, so

361
00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:01,640
Speaker 2: you make some very get points there, Billy. Let's move

362
00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:03,760
Speaker 2: on to our favorite props and a fight that I

363
00:17:03,840 --> 00:17:05,880
Speaker 2: expect to be competitive too, another fight that we could

364
00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:09,479
Speaker 2: just stop and talk about here for a second, gigats

365
00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:11,960
Speaker 2: Chickaise against Alice Cassaras. I think this is a good

366
00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:15,800
Speaker 2: underdog spot. I think you would disagree with that. Very

367
00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:19,399
Speaker 2: interesting fight though here in this division. Billy, go ahead

368
00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:21,119
Speaker 2: and break down this fight for me and telling me

369
00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:22,919
Speaker 2: how you want to bet it. As I said, this

370
00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:24,480
Speaker 2: is our favorite props, so you might be able to

371
00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:25,320
Speaker 2: tell where Billy's going.

372
00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:29,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, so my favorite way about this fight is actually

373
00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:32,720
Speaker 1: get to Chakadz live. For a couple of reasons. One,

374
00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:34,919
Speaker 1: we've got some cage rust issues. He's been out of

375
00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:36,440
Speaker 1: the cage for I think close to a year and

376
00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:38,880
Speaker 1: a half at this point, and with guys like that,

377
00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:41,600
Speaker 1: it doesn't really shock me when they start kind of slow.

378
00:17:42,040 --> 00:17:43,679
Speaker 1: You know, you come out, you're just get getting your

379
00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:45,359
Speaker 1: feet back on you. You're getting used to being hit, getting

380
00:17:45,400 --> 00:17:47,719
Speaker 1: used to the lights, all that stuff. So I expect

381
00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:50,440
Speaker 1: Cassarras to have his best moments early in the fight.

382
00:17:51,359 --> 00:17:55,000
Speaker 1: But the other reason is stylistically, Cassaras has a real long,

383
00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:58,040
Speaker 1: wide like traditional martial arts stance that leaves him open

384
00:17:58,040 --> 00:18:02,520
Speaker 1: to getting leg kicked really frequently, and Giga might have

385
00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:05,040
Speaker 1: some of the best overall kicking game in the division,

386
00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:07,880
Speaker 1: that's always something that you're probably not gonna win any

387
00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:09,720
Speaker 1: fights in the first round with leg kicks, but you

388
00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:11,600
Speaker 1: land five to six to seven in the first round,

389
00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:13,720
Speaker 1: six to seven more in the second round, all of

390
00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:15,920
Speaker 1: a sudden, you look like a minus one thousand favorite

391
00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:19,200
Speaker 1: down the stretch. So in terms of if I'm making

392
00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:22,080
Speaker 1: a pre fight, bet on that it's Chickatz in round

393
00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:24,840
Speaker 1: three or by decision at minus one fifteen, what I'm

394
00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:27,879
Speaker 1: really looking for is a competitive first round. Maybe Casarras

395
00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:30,399
Speaker 1: deals it with some grappling, and I'm guessing you're going

396
00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:33,159
Speaker 1: to talk about the grappling upside for Casseras, which he

397
00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:36,080
Speaker 1: has some, but he's not an offensive wrestler. He has

398
00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:39,800
Speaker 1: really good submissions. He developed his submission game because other

399
00:18:39,840 --> 00:18:42,600
Speaker 1: people kept taking him down and he needed a deterrent

400
00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:44,840
Speaker 1: or a way to win in those situations. I don't

401
00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:47,480
Speaker 1: see him having the wrestling ability to get Giga to

402
00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:50,520
Speaker 1: the ground unless Giga slips on a kick or some

403
00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:54,400
Speaker 1: other stuff, which isn't extremely unlikely but also feeds into

404
00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:56,280
Speaker 1: my pick where I think that's more likely to happen

405
00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:59,080
Speaker 1: early than it is late, as Giga tightens up and

406
00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:00,840
Speaker 1: starts to pull down the stretch.

407
00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:04,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that, you know, that's a very solid breakdown.

408
00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:08,960
Speaker 2: So my concern Mcgiga and the Giga Live entry would

409
00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:11,760
Speaker 2: be that I've never loved his cardio. Now, if Casaras

410
00:19:11,840 --> 00:19:13,880
Speaker 2: is trying to pursue takedowns and not able to get them,

411
00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:16,159
Speaker 2: I think that certainly is going to even the cardio

412
00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:19,560
Speaker 2: out very quickly. Interesting points about the kajrash, You're right,

413
00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:22,440
Speaker 2: I mean, Giga coming back first fight since January twenty

414
00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:25,200
Speaker 2: twenty two, and he also took an absolute beat down

415
00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:28,440
Speaker 2: at the hands of Calvin Cator in that matchup. Chin

416
00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:31,160
Speaker 2: was probably very close to getting cracked, almost put out

417
00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:33,360
Speaker 2: near the end of that fight eight a million elbows.

418
00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:36,359
Speaker 3: His face was absolutely sliced to shred.

419
00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:38,280
Speaker 2: So curious to see what the scarring looks like on

420
00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:40,800
Speaker 2: his face after that one, because he might look like

421
00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:42,919
Speaker 2: the h you know, the old hockey goalies before they

422
00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:45,280
Speaker 2: used to wear masks after eating all of those elbows.

423
00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:48,119
Speaker 2: But yeah, so, as you mentioned, Alex Caceras does retain

424
00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:51,320
Speaker 2: all of the grappling upside in this fight, and when

425
00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:53,439
Speaker 2: Giga has faced guys who have had to grapple him

426
00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:56,040
Speaker 2: or try to grapple him. That's when he's fought us

427
00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:59,520
Speaker 2: with decisions or lost fights. Is Dana White Contender Series

428
00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:03,320
Speaker 2: fight against Austin Springer choked out, runekund choke made it

429
00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:05,640
Speaker 2: to the UFC, fought Brandon Davis taken out three times,

430
00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:08,960
Speaker 2: split decision win. Fought Jamal Emmers taken down twice, split

431
00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:11,520
Speaker 2: decision win. Then he faced a bunch of guys who

432
00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:14,679
Speaker 2: were willing to strike with them, knocked him out, you know,

433
00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:17,040
Speaker 2: basically won on his title run, beat Eds and Barbosa

434
00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:19,960
Speaker 2: till he finally faced Calvin Cator, who took him down

435
00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:22,400
Speaker 2: in the first round, beat him up, tired him out,

436
00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:25,479
Speaker 2: and then the fight progress from there. But basically, as

437
00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:29,040
Speaker 2: I said, anybody who's taken down Giga, or at least

438
00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:31,560
Speaker 2: threatened to take him down, has either beat him or

439
00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:32,920
Speaker 2: gone a split decision with him at.

440
00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:33,600
Speaker 3: The UFC level.

441
00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:36,879
Speaker 2: So don't actually expect, as you said, Billy cassiraus to

442
00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:39,080
Speaker 2: land takedowns. I don't think he's a good offensive wrestler,

443
00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:40,840
Speaker 2: but I do think he's going to get the back

444
00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:42,440
Speaker 2: at some point, and that's what you got to watch

445
00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:45,359
Speaker 2: out for. Giga does give his back both standing and

446
00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:48,080
Speaker 2: when he's trying to stand if he gets taken down,

447
00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:51,680
Speaker 2: So if Casarus is able to land a takedown, maybe

448
00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:53,159
Speaker 2: he's not able to hold it. But I do think

449
00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:55,640
Speaker 2: he can switch to a back tack as Gigo looks

450
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:57,200
Speaker 2: to get back up, or if they're in a clinch

451
00:20:57,320 --> 00:20:59,679
Speaker 2: position up against the fence, I think Casara's is going

452
00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:01,760
Speaker 2: to look to switch to a back take from there

453
00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:05,400
Speaker 2: as well. So yes, very much agree. Don't think Casaraus

454
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:07,720
Speaker 2: has huge wrestling upside here, but he does have the

455
00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:10,399
Speaker 2: grappling upside, and I think the potential for back takes

456
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:12,560
Speaker 2: is very strong. So if he wins a fifty to

457
00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:15,240
Speaker 2: fifty round one gets a back take in the second

458
00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:17,679
Speaker 2: or third round, this is definitely his fight. But in

459
00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:19,760
Speaker 2: terms of how I want to bet this, yes, I'm

460
00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:21,800
Speaker 2: sprinkling a little bit on Cassarra's money line of two

461
00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:24,800
Speaker 2: to one, but I actually think his submission or decision

462
00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:28,240
Speaker 2: double chance prop at plus U ninety is a better

463
00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:29,840
Speaker 2: way to go about playing it. I think there's too

464
00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:33,720
Speaker 2: much knockout equity TKO equity baked into his line. Has

465
00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:35,879
Speaker 2: that recent head kick knockout, he is not a power

466
00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:38,719
Speaker 2: puncher whatsoever. Though, if he's going to get a knockout

467
00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:41,240
Speaker 2: here or an official TKO win. It's going to be

468
00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:44,840
Speaker 2: as a result of submission that Giga doesn't tap out

469
00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:48,919
Speaker 2: to that results in a TKO injury or a positional

470
00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:52,040
Speaker 2: TKO via you know, stoppage on the ground where he's

471
00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:54,560
Speaker 2: in mountain, basically pounding him out, and Giga doesn't roll

472
00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:57,040
Speaker 2: and give up his neck. So that's how I think

473
00:21:57,040 --> 00:22:00,399
Speaker 2: Casara's wins the fight by knockout. I think those possiblesities

474
00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:03,639
Speaker 2: are pretty low, and I think that discrepancy between his

475
00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:06,479
Speaker 2: plus two hundred money line and his plus two ninety

476
00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:10,240
Speaker 2: submission or decision double chance prop is a bit too wide.

477
00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:12,359
Speaker 2: I think you would probably agree with that too, Billy.

478
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:15,000
Speaker 1: I do, and I'm what I'm about to say is

479
00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:17,840
Speaker 1: actually not like trying to rebut your bet. I think

480
00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:20,119
Speaker 1: the likeliest way this gets to the ground is Giga

481
00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:22,560
Speaker 1: slips on a kick like we see him do it sometimes.

482
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:25,199
Speaker 1: He kicks very aggressively. Cassara's is tall, so he's got

483
00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:26,880
Speaker 1: to stretch a little bit higher on those head kicks.

484
00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:30,240
Speaker 1: That's not the craziest thing I think here, but I

485
00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:32,320
Speaker 1: do agree, and also just if he tries to stand

486
00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:35,720
Speaker 1: in trade with Chikazi, he's just gonna die. So yeah,

487
00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:37,880
Speaker 1: you know, like we're not going to expect a knock

488
00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:39,880
Speaker 1: out in a situation like that where he's a huge

489
00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:40,879
Speaker 1: underdog in the striking.

490
00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:42,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm a bill.

491
00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:44,399
Speaker 2: Wonkey on like the Ghost the decision or ins inside

492
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:46,680
Speaker 2: the distance here, I'd lean to the ghost of decision,

493
00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:49,040
Speaker 2: But I really do think one back take might be

494
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:51,159
Speaker 2: enough for Cassarras to finish it with a choke. He

495
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:53,399
Speaker 2: is a very good roar naked choke, and as you

496
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:55,680
Speaker 2: said on the feet, I think there's a huge discrepancy

497
00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:57,959
Speaker 2: in terms of the impact of the striking. Giga has

498
00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:00,199
Speaker 2: that beautiful body kick that he seems to put out

499
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:01,800
Speaker 2: a lot of people with, and that's just sort of

500
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 2: like a roll of the dice that you can't really

501
00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:07,560
Speaker 2: predict because Sarah's though tends to be very defensively, sounded

502
00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:09,880
Speaker 2: very careful in terms of how he approaches the striking,

503
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:12,120
Speaker 2: so could see a bit of a tepid striking pace,

504
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:14,720
Speaker 2: But I also think there's going to be moments where

505
00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:16,600
Speaker 2: this gets very close to a finish and is going

506
00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:18,119
Speaker 2: to be harry. So that's that's why I kind of

507
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:22,480
Speaker 2: stayed away from the total in this matchup, and then

508
00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:24,240
Speaker 2: you know, I just want to mention before we move

509
00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:27,080
Speaker 2: on that submission or decision double chance prop. I'm also

510
00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:29,960
Speaker 2: playing Parker Porter in his fight the exact same way.

511
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 2: I think Porter's knockout is too far baked into his

512
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:35,880
Speaker 2: money line against Tafa. I think it's a very similar

513
00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:38,879
Speaker 2: matchup to this one, where there's a clear striking advantage

514
00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:41,399
Speaker 2: for the favorite, but I think the underdog has a

515
00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:44,480
Speaker 2: chance to either grapple or win minutes down the stretch.

516
00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 2: So Parker Porter submissioner decision, Alex Casara's submission er decision.

517
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:52,920
Speaker 2: My favorite props for Saturday, Billy going with Giga Chakad's

518
00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:56,000
Speaker 2: round three or by decision, And Billy, you had one

519
00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 2: more as well at Knockleboro.

520
00:23:57,119 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, go in with my props God Style pick

521
00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:04,280
Speaker 1: Rnya Nakamura plus six hundred by submission. He's, depending on

522
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:06,760
Speaker 1: the book, roughly even money to win this fight and

523
00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:09,720
Speaker 1: by submission in round one. I should say he's roughly

524
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:12,000
Speaker 1: even money to win this in round one, but he's

525
00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 1: like much more heavily lined to win it by knockout

526
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:17,760
Speaker 1: in round one than he is by submission, which doesn't

527
00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:19,480
Speaker 1: make a ton of sense to me because he's the

528
00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:21,800
Speaker 1: Japanese bon Nickel. He was the under twenty three world

529
00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:25,040
Speaker 1: champion in wrestling. He was going to compete in the

530
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:28,200
Speaker 1: Olympics before it got canceled switched over to MMA. Yes,

531
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 1: there's a significant chance he finishes with the TKO on

532
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:33,919
Speaker 1: the ground, but his A plus plus plus skill is

533
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:36,640
Speaker 1: his wrestling. You know, guy gives us back gets choked out.

534
00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 1: That should be a lot closer to the knockout line

535
00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:40,600
Speaker 1: than the plus six hundred we're seeing right now. So

536
00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:42,960
Speaker 1: little bit sprinkle on that. It's gonna be my prop

537
00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 1: squad pick this week.

538
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:46,560
Speaker 2: Billy, did you hear somebody else say that he's the

539
00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:48,439
Speaker 2: Japanese bon Nickel this week? Or is that just like

540
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:49,959
Speaker 2: kind of the compument on him.

541
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 1: I have said that a few different times in a

542
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:54,120
Speaker 1: couple different places this week. I don't know that I've

543
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:55,879
Speaker 1: heard anyone else said it, but it's definitely been in

544
00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:58,680
Speaker 1: my brain. But he is, I mean, he's ridiculously athletic

545
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:00,440
Speaker 1: lefty with elite wrestling.

546
00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:04,520
Speaker 2: Like you know, I haven't tuned into any other concept

547
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:06,280
Speaker 2: this week. I you know, frankly, I haven't read or

548
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 2: seen anything you've done. Is the first time we've talked

549
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:09,160
Speaker 2: about the fights this week.

550
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 3: It's literally what I have in my notes.

551
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:13,240
Speaker 2: This kid is the Japanese Bo Nicholas, so I'm glad

552
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:15,560
Speaker 2: that we've arrived at the same comp on him.

553
00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:17,680
Speaker 3: He's a freak. I mean, he's a freak athlete.

554
00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:20,040
Speaker 2: We see a lot of these Japanese mixed martial artists

555
00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:25,239
Speaker 2: come over Tatsuro Taira, for example, Hora Gucci don't have

556
00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:29,159
Speaker 2: the most physically imposing physiques. They're more grapplers, but a

557
00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:33,960
Speaker 2: bit Newtaly. Nakamura is an insane athlete. This kid hits

558
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:37,960
Speaker 2: like an absolute truck. I think he's an absolute potential

559
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:42,200
Speaker 2: future champion and maybe the best Japanese miss martial artist ever.

560
00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:44,560
Speaker 2: I think he legitimately has that ceiling. This kid isn't

561
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:48,840
Speaker 2: an absolute freak athlete. So the way I'm betting that

562
00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:51,720
Speaker 2: fight Knacamora Garcia under one and a half rounds at

563
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:54,680
Speaker 2: minus one sixty, it is juiced up. Knakamura is about

564
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:57,359
Speaker 2: even money, as Billy said, to win in the first round.

565
00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:00,600
Speaker 2: I think he's minus three hundred to win inside the distance.

566
00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:03,639
Speaker 2: If you try the same game, parlay Knockamore in the

567
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:05,480
Speaker 2: under one and a half rounds. Where you're able to

568
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:08,080
Speaker 2: do that, it actually gives you a return of minus

569
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:11,240
Speaker 2: one eighties. So you're better off betting the under one

570
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:13,200
Speaker 2: and a half rounds straight up than you are playing

571
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:15,440
Speaker 2: the same game. Parlay would knock them earn the under

572
00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:17,919
Speaker 2: one and a half rounds if he wins inside the distance.

573
00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 2: I think it's going to be in the first seven

574
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:21,840
Speaker 2: and a half minutes, So minus one sixty on that

575
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:24,840
Speaker 2: under one and a half. Billy taking round one sub

576
00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:27,960
Speaker 2: at a much juicier plus six hundred. I'll probably put

577
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 2: that on my round robin tickets this week. Billy, I

578
00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 2: like that angle. Let's move to our best bets, and

579
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:35,159
Speaker 2: we're both gonna give out a best bet from the

580
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:35,760
Speaker 2: same fight.

581
00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 3: Probably my favorite fight this week.

582
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 2: In terms of, you know, projecting fighters for where they're

583
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:44,240
Speaker 2: going to go in the future. In terms of a

584
00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:48,960
Speaker 2: matchup between top fifteen contenders, Aaron Blanchfield, the New Jersey

585
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:54,479
Speaker 2: native against Talia Santos, who lost her split decision title

586
00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:58,639
Speaker 2: fight against Valentina Chipchenko the last time that she was

587
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:00,800
Speaker 2: in Singapore, and I think that is act actually a

588
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:04,120
Speaker 2: bit of an underrated aspect for this matchup. The fact

589
00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:06,720
Speaker 2: that Santo's going right back to Singapore fighting on the

590
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:10,399
Speaker 2: same body plock schedule that she did previously. This is

591
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 2: her first fight since then, so she has had the

592
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 2: long layoff. Blanchfield has been more active in that time. Blanchfield,

593
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:19,200
Speaker 2: the younger fighter, showed really good striking and proved striking

594
00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:22,840
Speaker 2: in her win or just gone draj I think Blanchfield

595
00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 2: is the future champion. I think Santos, though in her

596
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 2: own right, should already be the champion, if not, could

597
00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 2: be a future champion as well. So curious to see

598
00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:34,920
Speaker 2: the trajectory of Santos's career coming off of that loss,

599
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:37,159
Speaker 2: whether her motivation to get back into the title picture

600
00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:41,200
Speaker 2: is still there. We know Aaron Blanchfield as motivated as

601
00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:44,919
Speaker 2: anybody in the vision to where UFC gold around her waist. Billy,

602
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:47,720
Speaker 2: I'm gonna let you go ahead and give out your side.

603
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 2: But in terms of my favorite bet for this fight,

604
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:51,879
Speaker 2: I'm playing it to go to a decision at minus

605
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:54,480
Speaker 2: two twenty. I know what's heavily juiced up. I made

606
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:57,639
Speaker 2: this line closer to minus two fifty, though, and I

607
00:27:57,640 --> 00:27:59,920
Speaker 2: think both have good enough defensive jiu jitsu to ASSENTI

608
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:03,520
Speaker 2: deny one another, and they're both durable enough and have

609
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:05,840
Speaker 2: good enough cardio for a three round fight to just

610
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:08,960
Speaker 2: keep this a very competitive fifty to fifty scrap where

611
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:11,320
Speaker 2: I don't really see the finish equity particularly high on

612
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:14,000
Speaker 2: other side. But Billy, you're taking a firmer stance with

613
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:15,640
Speaker 2: the side on this fight I am.

614
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:17,160
Speaker 1: And you stole a little bit of thunder here when

615
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:18,680
Speaker 1: you said she should be the champ. I was about

616
00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 1: to refer to her as the lineal UFC Flyweight Women's Champ,

617
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:25,000
Speaker 1: somewhat tongue in cheek. Yeah, it is Santos, but no,

618
00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:27,159
Speaker 1: I think there's a bit of recency bias here with

619
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:31,120
Speaker 1: this line making Santos the underdog just because we haven't

620
00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:35,600
Speaker 1: seen her fight since she basically beat Valentino Chevchenko. I'm

621
00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:37,840
Speaker 1: going with Santos's money line at plus one twenty five.

622
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 1: It makes me sad my daughter who's doing jiu jitsu now,

623
00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:43,160
Speaker 1: and I watch all of Aaron Blanchfield's fight. She's like

624
00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 1: the house favorite fighter right now, but I don't think

625
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:48,480
Speaker 1: it's her time yet. I think Santos is just a

626
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:51,640
Speaker 1: little bit better. At this point. You mentioned Blanchfield being younger,

627
00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 1: which normally we like, but she's only twenty four. Santos

628
00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:57,080
Speaker 1: is thirty or thirty one. I think Santos is closer

629
00:28:57,120 --> 00:28:59,720
Speaker 1: to her prime than blanche Field right now. Santos should

630
00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:02,200
Speaker 1: have a big striking edge. But what really stood out

631
00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 1: to me is the way that Blanchfield gets her takedowns

632
00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:08,280
Speaker 1: is by generally she rushes in with punches, initiates a clinch,

633
00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:11,040
Speaker 1: then get trips and throws. Santos has a very good

634
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:13,280
Speaker 1: Muay Thai style clinch where she can win some of

635
00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 1: those clinch grappling exchanges and probably not get taken down

636
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:19,920
Speaker 1: so easily against Blanchfield. And Santo's is also a very

637
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 1: adepth counter striker, so if Blanchefield is rushing in trying

638
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:24,840
Speaker 1: to force the clinch, she can step back, kind of

639
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:26,520
Speaker 1: slide out of range, do a little bit of Ian

640
00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:29,520
Speaker 1: Gary Sean O'Malley type stuff where she uses that length

641
00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:32,680
Speaker 1: and range to snipe from the outside if it does

642
00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 1: get to the ground. Blanchfield is favored, but I think

643
00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:37,400
Speaker 1: Santos has a strong enough game to just not get

644
00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:40,240
Speaker 1: immediately tapped, and then if she's winning the striking, that's

645
00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:42,760
Speaker 1: all you need, right because the damage is so heavily

646
00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:45,520
Speaker 1: prioritized on the scoring. I do think it likely goes

647
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 1: to a decision. If it does, I kind of want

648
00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 1: the woman who's landing more strikes rather than the one

649
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:53,400
Speaker 1: who's desperately trying to get takedowns, getting a minute or

650
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:56,240
Speaker 1: two a control time and then getting punched on the feet.

651
00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:59,680
Speaker 1: I am worried, though you mentioned. Blanchfield's striking progression looks

652
00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:01,720
Speaker 1: so much better against some drib than even the fight

653
00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:05,640
Speaker 1: before that. She's almost I shouldn't say almost certainly because

654
00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:08,280
Speaker 1: that's tempting fate. But she's a very likely future champion.

655
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:10,280
Speaker 1: I'd love to see these two rematch for the belt

656
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 1: in two or three years because I think one of

657
00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 1: them ends up having it. Probably whoever wins this one

658
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 1: is the next champion at Flyway.

659
00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:19,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a great fight, you know, As you said, Billy,

660
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:22,200
Speaker 2: I think Santo's being in her physical prime. She's just

661
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:24,120
Speaker 2: going to be the stronger fighter here, and I think

662
00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:25,959
Speaker 2: that might be enough to deny the takedowns. It might

663
00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:28,480
Speaker 2: be even be enough to get her offensive takedowns. I

664
00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 2: think the fight that's most concerning for me was Aaron

665
00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 2: Blanchfield's effort again to JJ Aldridge, where she ultimately won

666
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 2: I believe by second or third round finish. But she

667
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:38,320
Speaker 2: was taken down twice in that fight and wasn't able

668
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 2: to land takedowns of her own, and she short of

669
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:42,000
Speaker 2: struggled with Aldrich's size.

670
00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:43,840
Speaker 3: She's short, She's only five fours.

671
00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 2: Santos is the bigger fighter, but also the upper body

672
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:49,160
Speaker 2: takedowns that Aldrich hit in that fight are the similar

673
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:52,080
Speaker 2: types of throws that Santo's goes for, So I actually

674
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 2: think it's possible that Santos gets takedowns in top time

675
00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:58,160
Speaker 2: here too. So you know the fact that it's heavily

676
00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:00,160
Speaker 2: chused to go to a decision taking the plus more.

677
00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:01,520
Speaker 3: I agree.

678
00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 2: I wanted to bet Aaron Blanchfield here. I'm with you, Billy.

679
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:06,640
Speaker 2: I'm a big fan of Aaron Blanchfield. I'm from the Northeast.

680
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:08,920
Speaker 2: I just like how she fights, though she's sort of

681
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:12,880
Speaker 2: a female Marabi Bosh Philly two degree, just in terms

682
00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:15,800
Speaker 2: of the pace, the forward pressure that she's going to provide.

683
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 3: I just love the stylum which she fights. I think

684
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:19,840
Speaker 3: she's getting much better.

685
00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 2: I think we both recognize that the striking improved drastically

686
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:26,360
Speaker 2: in the last fight against Andrage. I'm a bit skeptical

687
00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 2: that you know, it improves so much, though technically more

688
00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:32,960
Speaker 2: so than it did, just because Onrage was so worried

689
00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:35,480
Speaker 2: about the takedowns coming, and she was just extremely open

690
00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:37,760
Speaker 2: to getting hit there because she was worried about the

691
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:41,920
Speaker 2: level change. So yeah, Blanchefield, I agree. I don't really

692
00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 2: think you can bet her here. I want to bet

693
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 2: her here. I want to root for her. I'm going

694
00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:47,600
Speaker 2: to be rooting for her, but I'm going to be

695
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:50,000
Speaker 2: rooting for her to win by decision right to end,

696
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 2: by decision, go to decision minus too twenty. My favorite bet,

697
00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:56,160
Speaker 2: Billy is going to be betting Talia Santos on the

698
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:58,120
Speaker 2: money line at plus one twenty five. I would say

699
00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 2: Santos probably more chaofide, Blanchfield more submission upside. But I

700
00:32:02,240 --> 00:32:06,160
Speaker 2: think Santos is defensive jiu jitsu I would trust more

701
00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:09,320
Speaker 2: than Blanchfield's chin I suppose, I think, especially if they

702
00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 2: get in a firefight, I think I give Santos more

703
00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:14,280
Speaker 2: finishing upside. So yeah, I definitely agree with Billy in

704
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 2: terms of leaning to the dog here. But that'll do

705
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:19,479
Speaker 2: it for us for UFC Singapore. I hope you found

706
00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:22,000
Speaker 2: some value that you want to bet throughout this card.

707
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:25,040
Speaker 2: For Billy Ward, I'm Sean Drul Moving back next week

708
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:26,080
Speaker 2: for another UFC card.

709
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:34,560
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

710
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:37,800
Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

711
00:32:38,080 --> 00:32:40,680
Speaker 3: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

712
00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:41,600
Speaker 3: hundred Gambler