1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:04,680 Speaker 1: This is Football four oh one K broadcasting on Dallas 2 00:00:04,720 --> 00:00:08,039 Speaker 1: Cowboys dot Com and the official Dallas Cowboys Happen Now 3 00:00:08,240 --> 00:00:14,640 Speaker 1: your hosts bow Repka and RJ. Choppy. Welcome to episode 4 00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:17,880 Speaker 1: seven of the Football four oh one K. I M 5 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:20,480 Speaker 1: R J. Choppy of one oh five Through the Fan 6 00:00:21,079 --> 00:00:24,240 Speaker 1: in Dallas. You catch me with Sean Sharif Troy Hughes 7 00:00:24,440 --> 00:00:26,840 Speaker 1: Monday through Friday, five thirty to ten one oh five 8 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 1: to the fan. He is bow Repka of the Football 9 00:00:29,520 --> 00:00:33,479 Speaker 1: Glory Hole. Great show for you today. I'm even more 10 00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:38,800 Speaker 1: excited when we're off a dominating week. Holy cow on Twitter. 11 00:00:38,840 --> 00:00:42,599 Speaker 1: I was twelve and four, yes, sir, well and I 12 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 1: think we were. We were we undefeated on this podcast 13 00:00:46,120 --> 00:00:49,520 Speaker 1: last week we were little three oh Actually, Glad, always 14 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:51,440 Speaker 1: get to see it's never a bad thing when the 15 00:00:51,720 --> 00:00:54,600 Speaker 1: zero is in the lost column, even if you're oh 16 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 1: oh and twelve, It ain't that bad, right ed, ain't 17 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:01,880 Speaker 1: that bad. So let's get right to it here. Recapping 18 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:06,119 Speaker 1: last week. It was a phenomen It may have been 19 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:07,920 Speaker 1: one of the best sports weekends of all time. When 20 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:12,360 Speaker 1: you factor in the fight, the Tyson Tyson Fury against 21 00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:15,680 Speaker 1: Jante Wilder fight, and then the Major League Baseball Playoffs. 22 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:20,280 Speaker 1: I mean, it was a tremendous weekend of content in sports. 23 00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:23,160 Speaker 1: BAMMA An A and M may have been the highlight, 24 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 1: along with Texas and Oklahoma. But let's recap the Bama 25 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:28,360 Speaker 1: A and M game. Man, what a day that was 26 00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:33,399 Speaker 1: down in College Station Shoppy. That is two historic wins 27 00:01:33,440 --> 00:01:36,080 Speaker 1: straight up in the last two weeks in the SEC. 28 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:39,080 Speaker 1: And remember we told you guys that this year's BAMA 29 00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:41,360 Speaker 1: team was not nearly as dominant in our power rankings 30 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:43,400 Speaker 1: last years. In fact, there wasn't a single team choppy. 31 00:01:43,440 --> 00:01:45,760 Speaker 1: Last year. It came within eight points of Bama in 32 00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:48,040 Speaker 1: our power rankings, and you saw that in the odds 33 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:50,720 Speaker 1: in the National Championship game. But this year Georgia had 34 00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:53,520 Speaker 1: ended this game was only one point behind BAMMA in 35 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:57,480 Speaker 1: our power rankings. Obviously they have passed them now, but shopping, 36 00:01:57,520 --> 00:02:01,920 Speaker 1: no amount of analytical data could have predicted this upset. 37 00:02:01,960 --> 00:02:04,800 Speaker 1: How big a win for this is Jimbo Fisher down 38 00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:07,640 Speaker 1: to College Station, dude, this is this is a game 39 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:10,880 Speaker 1: changer for him. I mean, I can't imagine the amount 40 00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:15,360 Speaker 1: of recruits that were at this game for Texas, A 41 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:17,320 Speaker 1: and M. I have a feeling that they were just 42 00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:20,480 Speaker 1: chuck full of players that were you know, and look, 43 00:02:20,480 --> 00:02:22,160 Speaker 1: A and M's gonna get a lot of guys actually 44 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:24,639 Speaker 1: to go to go on official visits. It's not hard 45 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:27,200 Speaker 1: to get an official visit to A and M. They're 46 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:29,480 Speaker 1: gonna get their guys, and they were, they were there, 47 00:02:29,560 --> 00:02:33,120 Speaker 1: and it was for them well well worth it because 48 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:35,840 Speaker 1: I bet you they got a ton of recruits. And Jimbo, 49 00:02:36,800 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 1: you know, Jimbo was looking for his his banner victory 50 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:41,440 Speaker 1: as a as a head coach of the Aggies, and 51 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:43,680 Speaker 1: he's got it at Florida State, but he hadn't had 52 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:45,840 Speaker 1: it as of yet at Texas. A and M. So 53 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:49,960 Speaker 1: huge victory for A and M. I didn't see. I mean, 54 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:52,560 Speaker 1: I only saw bet QL was the only one that 55 00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 1: I saw that had this is a five star bet 56 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:59,720 Speaker 1: A and M plus nineteen. I was. I mean, I 57 00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:02,200 Speaker 1: know a lot of people have had Yeah, maybe A lean, 58 00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:06,359 Speaker 1: A and M. Personally, if I'm giving less than three touchdowns, 59 00:03:07,720 --> 00:03:11,359 Speaker 1: I'm taking Alabama most nights. Yeah, I mean, it's tough 60 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:14,880 Speaker 1: to do. A and M was the side in two 61 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:17,400 Speaker 1: of our algorithms, but not three, So was not a 62 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 1: full go bet for us. Lean yes, but definitely not 63 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:22,760 Speaker 1: going a full go bet, like you said, without giving 64 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:25,600 Speaker 1: without catching three touchdowns coming back, and it never even 65 00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:27,480 Speaker 1: got close to that. I mean it was at nineteen 66 00:03:27,600 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 1: and we actually went down, so the money was coming 67 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 1: against Alabama. Now, let's look at what it did to 68 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:37,280 Speaker 1: the National Championship odds for Alabama. Right Alabama was plus 69 00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:39,320 Speaker 1: one seventy five to win at all before this game. 70 00:03:39,360 --> 00:03:42,120 Speaker 1: Georgia was plus one ninety, which speaks again to how 71 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:44,080 Speaker 1: close we had them in our power wreckings. Right now 72 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:46,760 Speaker 1: Georgia is plus one hundred even money to win it. 73 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:51,560 Speaker 1: All Abama is down to plus two fifty and shoppy. 74 00:03:51,640 --> 00:03:53,480 Speaker 1: That's the exact same odds you could have got them 75 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 1: at preseason, which first of all tells you what a 76 00:03:55,680 --> 00:04:00,120 Speaker 1: raw deal that you get at two fifty preseason when 77 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 1: they haven't even played a game. Now they've played half 78 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:06,040 Speaker 1: their schedule, they've lost a game, and they're two fifty again, 79 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:10,120 Speaker 1: which means realistically, at best, they should have been closer 80 00:04:10,160 --> 00:04:12,240 Speaker 1: to plus twelve hundred. That's what you should have got 81 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:14,760 Speaker 1: as a player, and that's real odds. But that's even 82 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:19,720 Speaker 1: with heavy heavy shading to Alabama winning all of their 83 00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:22,800 Speaker 1: games on the probability, and there's just so there's just 84 00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:28,560 Speaker 1: no value in betting preseason favorites to win championships in 85 00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:33,160 Speaker 1: any sport. But now the question shop is looking at 86 00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:34,640 Speaker 1: you know what Bama has to do, you know the 87 00:04:34,720 --> 00:04:38,000 Speaker 1: road ahead of them. Would you take the two fifty 88 00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:40,760 Speaker 1: back on Bama? Would you try to catch two and 89 00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:45,760 Speaker 1: a half units on them winning the championship? At this point, Oh, 90 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:50,479 Speaker 1: I bet Bama. Yeah, I mean I that's a solid bet. 91 00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:54,800 Speaker 1: The more value you can get on a team that, Like, 92 00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:57,239 Speaker 1: if I thought BAM was the best team last week, 93 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:00,400 Speaker 1: you know, one game, making a change at that, I'm 94 00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:02,360 Speaker 1: still betting them, you know, and now I'm just gonna 95 00:05:02,360 --> 00:05:05,440 Speaker 1: bet them a little bit better value. Yeah, I want 96 00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:07,479 Speaker 1: to hundred percent agree on that. The only difference in 97 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:10,760 Speaker 1: college is yeah, I don't think that any worst team 98 00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:12,560 Speaker 1: that they were, I think that they were vulnerable. We 99 00:05:12,640 --> 00:05:15,680 Speaker 1: said that going in. They obviously are vulnerable. The only 100 00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:19,360 Speaker 1: problem is now if they lose to Georgia, right, if 101 00:05:19,360 --> 00:05:20,919 Speaker 1: they love which that's to be the only game that 102 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:23,520 Speaker 1: they will not be, you know, a double favorite in 103 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:26,000 Speaker 1: if they lose to Georgia, will the committee put a 104 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:29,240 Speaker 1: two loss SEC team into the playoff. They've said before 105 00:05:29,279 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 1: they're not putting any two loss teams in. That means 106 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:33,280 Speaker 1: they'd have to let Cincinnati in though, and they've never 107 00:05:33,360 --> 00:05:35,880 Speaker 1: let a you know, a G five team in either. 108 00:05:36,040 --> 00:05:39,160 Speaker 1: So it's gonna get Harry if they lose to Georgia 109 00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:41,160 Speaker 1: for the committee. So I'm here for it. I love 110 00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 1: the chaos. But moving on, we did say we're three 111 00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:46,200 Speaker 1: and oz on our free picks right here on this podcast, 112 00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:48,920 Speaker 1: Shoppy off for free, and we gave out three. Here's 113 00:05:48,920 --> 00:05:53,479 Speaker 1: the best part, no stress winners. UCLA went out there 114 00:05:53,480 --> 00:05:56,440 Speaker 1: and destroyed Arizona just like we said they would. Your 115 00:05:56,560 --> 00:05:59,039 Speaker 1: valls and I did listen to the program on a 116 00:05:59,040 --> 00:06:01,800 Speaker 1: Friday on the degenerate. You were hesitant to put your 117 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:03,920 Speaker 1: balls in, but it was you had faith. You did 118 00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:06,680 Speaker 1: it and guess what, they blew them the heck out. 119 00:06:06,720 --> 00:06:08,560 Speaker 1: It was thirty five to nothing whatever it was before 120 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:10,600 Speaker 1: you even turned around. So I get that from a 121 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:13,320 Speaker 1: fan's perspective, though, always hesitant to bet on or against 122 00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:17,000 Speaker 1: your team. But Choppy, we've been doing this program. I 123 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:18,960 Speaker 1: think is our fourth year doing it. You know, by now, 124 00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:22,120 Speaker 1: the numbers kind of gravitate to a certain team or 125 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:25,360 Speaker 1: two that they either honor against all year long, and 126 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:27,960 Speaker 1: they're pretty they get pretty honed in on that tip 127 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:30,279 Speaker 1: for whatever reason, right, they just fall into that you 128 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:33,479 Speaker 1: know range of data. Tennessee has been the team. Right. 129 00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:35,480 Speaker 1: We've made money on them and against them so far 130 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:38,039 Speaker 1: this year. So if we tell you to bet on them, 131 00:06:38,360 --> 00:06:40,040 Speaker 1: man and plan on having a great Saturday. If we 132 00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:42,440 Speaker 1: tell you about against them, maybe go by the yard 133 00:06:42,520 --> 00:06:44,160 Speaker 1: or something. You know, while they're not, don't worry. Don't 134 00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:46,280 Speaker 1: worry about I'm scared of death this week, man, old 135 00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:50,200 Speaker 1: miss that's I saw that point spread, the total eighty 136 00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:54,480 Speaker 1: five or something like that. Oh my god, will will 137 00:06:54,560 --> 00:06:58,240 Speaker 1: there be three punts in that game? I mean if 138 00:06:58,279 --> 00:07:00,800 Speaker 1: they are, then you're overs blown. I'll tell you that. Yeah, 139 00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:03,120 Speaker 1: if they punted three times and you can forget about 140 00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:05,480 Speaker 1: the over That's what I will say. Unless they return 141 00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:08,160 Speaker 1: all three for touchdowns, which is absolutely possible in that game. 142 00:07:08,240 --> 00:07:12,480 Speaker 1: Who knows a couple of NFL games recap, So were 143 00:07:12,560 --> 00:07:15,640 Speaker 1: we said right here on the football four on one 144 00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:18,160 Speaker 1: h football four to one K Houston plus the nine 145 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:21,800 Speaker 1: versus in New England. Choppy said, we said Mills was bad, 146 00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:24,200 Speaker 1: He wasn't that much worse than mc cookie monster on 147 00:07:24,240 --> 00:07:27,600 Speaker 1: the season going in and he straight up outplayed the 148 00:07:27,640 --> 00:07:30,480 Speaker 1: first round quarterback for New England. If you watched that game, 149 00:07:30,520 --> 00:07:35,640 Speaker 1: Mills was actually pretty good in that football game. Yeah, yeah, 150 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:38,760 Speaker 1: he was. He was pretty good. That's wasn't that surprising? 151 00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:42,280 Speaker 1: That was the most surprising. He was that good. Yeah, yeah, 152 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:44,720 Speaker 1: very surprising because he has not been good at all 153 00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:47,800 Speaker 1: this season. But you know, he had himself a good game. 154 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:50,000 Speaker 1: They were able to get the cover, they sure did. 155 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:51,440 Speaker 1: They should have won the game, but you know if 156 00:07:51,440 --> 00:07:54,760 Speaker 1: they didn't. Uh second one to recap Denver Pittsburgh, we 157 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:57,040 Speaker 1: had Pittsburgh plus to one. I think it went off 158 00:07:57,080 --> 00:07:59,200 Speaker 1: at plus one or plus one and a half. This 159 00:07:59,240 --> 00:08:02,080 Speaker 1: is another simple fade on Teddy two gloves for us, 160 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:04,440 Speaker 1: second straight. We to fade him second straight. We we 161 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:07,480 Speaker 1: made money doing it. Why because choppy the public is 162 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 1: always slow to catch up to the truth. And the 163 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:12,640 Speaker 1: truth is or three weeks Teddy Ridgewater was the number 164 00:08:12,680 --> 00:08:15,520 Speaker 1: one EPA plus CPOE quarterback in the NFL. Now, to 165 00:08:15,560 --> 00:08:19,040 Speaker 1: give you some perspective on what that means. Last year, 166 00:08:19,080 --> 00:08:20,680 Speaker 1: the guy that finished him one of that stat was 167 00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:25,320 Speaker 1: a Rod Right and he was the MVP two years 168 00:08:25,360 --> 00:08:28,679 Speaker 1: ago Lamar finish third in that stat he was the MVP, 169 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:31,559 Speaker 1: and then a year before that it was Mahomes finished 170 00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:35,240 Speaker 1: number one that stat. Oh yeah, league MVP. Right, so 171 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:39,079 Speaker 1: you have to think that either Teddy two gloves is 172 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:42,120 Speaker 1: going to win the MVP of the NFL or being 173 00:08:42,120 --> 00:08:46,360 Speaker 1: in a running or you might see some regression. Right yeah, 174 00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:49,880 Speaker 1: so and now his chances to win the MVP are 175 00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:54,040 Speaker 1: greater than zero. Right, So it could happen. But to 176 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:56,880 Speaker 1: quote the great Wayne Campbell, monkeys could fly out on 177 00:08:56,920 --> 00:09:00,600 Speaker 1: my butt. So I'm not saying anything's impossible. But oh 178 00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:04,120 Speaker 1: that's that's a good point. Do you ever know? But 179 00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:06,480 Speaker 1: the point here, boys and girls, is if you see 180 00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:09,480 Speaker 1: anything you know early in the season, and it could 181 00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:12,000 Speaker 1: be deep analytical, it could be surface, it could be record, 182 00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:14,280 Speaker 1: could be anything you see anything that looks out of place, 183 00:09:14,880 --> 00:09:17,679 Speaker 1: it more than likely is. So that's the reason why 184 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:20,559 Speaker 1: it was a pretty easy handicapped for us, just betting 185 00:09:20,600 --> 00:09:23,400 Speaker 1: the natural or Now, Teddy's a fine quarterback, but he's 186 00:09:23,440 --> 00:09:25,560 Speaker 1: not a League VA people quarterback. That's all we were saying. 187 00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:28,440 Speaker 1: He was gonna come back to. It's like choppy, you're 188 00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:30,440 Speaker 1: a baseball guy. If you start off if you're a 189 00:09:30,440 --> 00:09:32,520 Speaker 1: two forty hitter, right, and you've been in the pros 190 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:35,880 Speaker 1: for seven eight years and you hit four twenty in April. 191 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:38,520 Speaker 1: Guess what your maze is gonna look like? Oh yeah, 192 00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 1: I'm gonna stink real bad, right, Yeah, it's very rude 193 00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:46,959 Speaker 1: o door oh god, yeah with look look like him 194 00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:51,720 Speaker 1: without the beer. That's how bad it's gonna look. Yeah, 195 00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:53,480 Speaker 1: that's true. That's just the way it is, you know. 196 00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:56,400 Speaker 1: And I don't know what's gonna happen to Teddy. Teddy's 197 00:09:56,400 --> 00:09:59,440 Speaker 1: had an amazing first quarter of the season, fantastic. We'll 198 00:09:59,480 --> 00:10:02,240 Speaker 1: see what happen because as they move along. But you know, 199 00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:05,520 Speaker 1: last couple of weeks they got beat up pretty good, 200 00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:09,320 Speaker 1: all right, and then Casey Buffalo in this game to 201 00:10:09,400 --> 00:10:12,400 Speaker 1: meet Choppy. It was one of those question games, like 202 00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:15,959 Speaker 1: is this the changing of the guards in the AFC? 203 00:10:16,160 --> 00:10:21,000 Speaker 1: What do you think that was the changing of the guards? No, listen, 204 00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:24,200 Speaker 1: I saw a thing on TV this morning. Is Patrick 205 00:10:24,200 --> 00:10:26,880 Speaker 1: Mahomes still the best quarterback in the NFL? Like? Yes 206 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:31,480 Speaker 1: he is, Yes he is. Stop looking at the two 207 00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:34,720 Speaker 1: and three record to determine how good the quarterback is. 208 00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:37,720 Speaker 1: Is he not? Still very very high in the NFL 209 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:41,520 Speaker 1: like tops in QBR right there and adjusted that yards 210 00:10:41,520 --> 00:10:47,320 Speaker 1: for attempt. I mean, okay, so his you know, he's 211 00:10:47,320 --> 00:10:50,320 Speaker 1: thrown a few more interceptions this year. He had an 212 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:55,600 Speaker 1: unsustainable rate of not throwing picks that were deep down 213 00:10:55,600 --> 00:10:57,360 Speaker 1: the field over the first couple of years of his career. 214 00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:00,800 Speaker 1: He's getting the piper's getting paid right now, like I'm 215 00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:05,199 Speaker 1: good man, Like we'll be okay, Teddy Patrick Mahomes is 216 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 1: the best quarterback in the league until he's not in 217 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:13,400 Speaker 1: the league anymore, basically, absolutely, And I love how fired 218 00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:16,640 Speaker 1: up Choppy gets about like really good quarterbacks. It's kind 219 00:11:16,640 --> 00:11:19,160 Speaker 1: of how fired up I get about people that overrate 220 00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:21,600 Speaker 1: really bad quarterbacks when I get to hear you know 221 00:11:21,640 --> 00:11:25,280 Speaker 1: how great some terrible quarterback played. I mean, for years 222 00:11:25,280 --> 00:11:27,640 Speaker 1: people trying to tell me how good Andy Dalton wasn't Cincinnati, 223 00:11:27,640 --> 00:11:30,280 Speaker 1: and I just wanted to smack him, right. But Choppy 224 00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:32,000 Speaker 1: is equally as fired up when you talk about great 225 00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:34,760 Speaker 1: quarterbacks and try to slide them. So I love that passion. 226 00:11:34,800 --> 00:11:37,720 Speaker 1: Now in Vegas, Vegas is saying it was changing the 227 00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:40,640 Speaker 1: guards because Buffalo is plus six hundred now to win 228 00:11:40,640 --> 00:11:43,480 Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. That's the best odds in the AFC 229 00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:47,160 Speaker 1: Casey down to seven fifty. Now we have a ticket 230 00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:49,679 Speaker 1: at FGH on the Bills A plus fifteen hundred when 231 00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:51,920 Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, because we've bet it before the season started, 232 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:54,280 Speaker 1: so we've definitely gained a lot of value on that. 233 00:11:54,520 --> 00:11:56,360 Speaker 1: James and I both picked them to go to the 234 00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:58,520 Speaker 1: super Bowl, and we always put our money where our 235 00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:01,520 Speaker 1: handicap is, so we love our value on this at 236 00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:06,120 Speaker 1: this point. But this is just another example of why 237 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:08,719 Speaker 1: you don't bet favorites in the preseason, because we don't 238 00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:11,200 Speaker 1: have a ticket on Casey plus the six hundred, because 239 00:12:11,240 --> 00:12:16,280 Speaker 1: there is no value betting preseason favorites. Right but now, 240 00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:18,960 Speaker 1: and I'll give you some food food for thought, and 241 00:12:19,040 --> 00:12:20,600 Speaker 1: you can think about if you take this bet now, 242 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:24,360 Speaker 1: So food for thought on that game, because I'm with you. 243 00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:25,760 Speaker 1: I don't think it was the change in the guards. 244 00:12:25,760 --> 00:12:31,559 Speaker 1: And here's why. The net expected points lost on those 245 00:12:31,600 --> 00:12:35,400 Speaker 1: turnovers by Kansas City was twenty six points. They lost 246 00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:38,680 Speaker 1: the game by eighteen. That game was a lot closer 247 00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:41,200 Speaker 1: than it looks. The Chief said more first downs than 248 00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:43,960 Speaker 1: the Bills and almost as many yards. But because of 249 00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:46,040 Speaker 1: the results, you see the big shift in the Super 250 00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:49,640 Speaker 1: Bowl market, which by the way is the squarest of 251 00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:52,440 Speaker 1: square markets and all of Vegas. I mean, you could 252 00:12:52,440 --> 00:12:54,880 Speaker 1: go to the pick a number market and it's better. 253 00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:57,640 Speaker 1: It's it's more sharp than the super Bowl market is. 254 00:12:58,280 --> 00:13:01,360 Speaker 1: So I think Casey is close to having real value 255 00:13:01,400 --> 00:13:04,439 Speaker 1: now at that plus seven fifty. I honestly don't know 256 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 1: if it gets much better. They're gonna go to Washington. 257 00:13:06,440 --> 00:13:08,160 Speaker 1: I do think they scuff a little bit Washington. They 258 00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:11,200 Speaker 1: come out with a victory. But do the Chargers go 259 00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:13,600 Speaker 1: beat Baltimore on the road. It's gonna be a tough 260 00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:16,000 Speaker 1: task for him. If they do, then you might get 261 00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:18,280 Speaker 1: your number might get a little bit better. If they don't, 262 00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:20,920 Speaker 1: then that seven fifty is gonna shrink a little bit. 263 00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:22,920 Speaker 1: This might be the time to pull the trigger on him. 264 00:13:22,920 --> 00:13:25,320 Speaker 1: If you're gonna bet Kansas City, it might be about 265 00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:27,040 Speaker 1: as good as you're gonna get on that value. So 266 00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:31,720 Speaker 1: chop you you pulling trigger plus seven fifty right now? Yeah? 267 00:13:31,760 --> 00:13:33,920 Speaker 1: I might. Um, there's a couple of teams that I 268 00:13:33,920 --> 00:13:35,440 Speaker 1: would like to bet. I would like to see what 269 00:13:35,480 --> 00:13:37,760 Speaker 1: their numbers at. I'd like to see what the numbers 270 00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:39,360 Speaker 1: had on the rams. I think the rams may have 271 00:13:39,400 --> 00:13:42,000 Speaker 1: been faded a bit Tampa certainly has been faded a bit. 272 00:13:42,040 --> 00:13:49,680 Speaker 1: I think Kansas City Cowboys Cowboys are great odds. I 273 00:13:49,679 --> 00:13:51,400 Speaker 1: think the last time I saw was twenty two to one. 274 00:13:51,520 --> 00:13:53,400 Speaker 1: You don't want Tampa Bay. They're still the odds on 275 00:13:53,480 --> 00:13:57,880 Speaker 1: favorite in Vegas because again, squares marketing town. Man, it's 276 00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:00,640 Speaker 1: a Squares marking town. People don't care that the defense stinks. 277 00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:03,079 Speaker 1: They see Tom Brady throw for four hundred yards and 278 00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:05,240 Speaker 1: five touchdowns, said, yep, they're gonna win it again, right, 279 00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:06,920 Speaker 1: We don't care that they are. You know that you 280 00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:09,320 Speaker 1: and I are the next up on their cornerback list. Literally, 281 00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:10,679 Speaker 1: I got a letter in the mail all the other day, 282 00:14:10,679 --> 00:14:13,080 Speaker 1: so I gotta get I gotta get in shape, I 283 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:15,480 Speaker 1: gotta get my I gotta get my hamstrings ready to go. Man, 284 00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:17,839 Speaker 1: there you go. Yeah, so I would probably take the 285 00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:20,760 Speaker 1: Chiefs bet um. You know, but that builds bet at 286 00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:24,760 Speaker 1: fifteen fifteen hundred is phenomenal. Yeah, we like that. That 287 00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:26,640 Speaker 1: was one of you sell that back to them? Could 288 00:14:26,640 --> 00:14:28,800 Speaker 1: you sell that back to them right now? Yeah? Absolutely? 289 00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:32,880 Speaker 1: You make some money on it, right, I'm close. I'm 290 00:14:32,920 --> 00:14:35,200 Speaker 1: close to making money on it. Close to make it. 291 00:14:35,280 --> 00:14:37,480 Speaker 1: I mean when I say money, I mean there's a 292 00:14:37,520 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 1: certain margin that we'll sell it back at. I'm not 293 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:42,440 Speaker 1: quite to that point yet, but it's close. It's close. 294 00:14:42,760 --> 00:14:44,200 Speaker 1: I didn't know if you could do that with futures. 295 00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:47,280 Speaker 1: Yeah you can, but I mean, they're they're not gonna 296 00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:48,960 Speaker 1: give you hardly anything for it right now because it's 297 00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:51,200 Speaker 1: still so early. But we get the week fifteen and 298 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:53,920 Speaker 1: they're fourteen and one, you know, then I could sell 299 00:14:53,920 --> 00:14:57,320 Speaker 1: it back and make a decent penning. Uh, cowboys are 300 00:14:57,320 --> 00:14:59,720 Speaker 1: five and oh against the spread? Are they still being 301 00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:01,640 Speaker 1: under valued? It's only four point? It started as a 302 00:15:01,680 --> 00:15:05,960 Speaker 1: one in New England and now it's four four point 303 00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:10,560 Speaker 1: favored into England. Seems high over the last twenty years, 304 00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:14,440 Speaker 1: but not this year? Is that? Are they eighteen that 305 00:15:14,480 --> 00:15:19,680 Speaker 1: has been still undervalued? No, and we will get into 306 00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:22,040 Speaker 1: that in our next section. But I do want to 307 00:15:22,040 --> 00:15:25,440 Speaker 1: point out that they are five and oh, ats and Shoppy. 308 00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:29,680 Speaker 1: You have rolled with him every week. You're five and oh. 309 00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:32,360 Speaker 1: This last week was really the kind of breakover week 310 00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:36,920 Speaker 1: for us, and they still covered the spread. So when 311 00:15:36,960 --> 00:15:39,240 Speaker 1: does the value fully shift? We think it's this week. 312 00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:41,280 Speaker 1: But what I can tell you for sure is they're 313 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:44,640 Speaker 1: not gonna go seventeen and oh hs, that's that I 314 00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:46,560 Speaker 1: know for sure, because Vegas is not gonna allow that 315 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:50,000 Speaker 1: to happen. But we will get it. We will get 316 00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:52,880 Speaker 1: into that. Maybe it'll be sixteen and one. It is 317 00:15:52,920 --> 00:15:56,640 Speaker 1: the football four oh one K. I'm r J choppy, 318 00:15:56,680 --> 00:16:01,840 Speaker 1: he is bo repka. Are the Cowboys still undervalued in Vegas? 319 00:16:01,840 --> 00:16:05,560 Speaker 1: And why they are not? According to both plus the 320 00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:10,480 Speaker 1: mere Gruden effect on the Vegas betting lines all coming 321 00:16:10,560 --> 00:16:13,240 Speaker 1: up next to the football four oh one K. Before 322 00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:15,280 Speaker 1: there was a draft, you could size up a cowboy 323 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:18,200 Speaker 1: by three simple factors. The crease in his hat, the 324 00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:21,240 Speaker 1: bend of his brim, and his unbending attitude a man. 325 00:16:21,280 --> 00:16:24,160 Speaker 1: Stetson didn't just protect him from what life throw at him. 326 00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:29,040 Speaker 1: It projected a rugged, unstoppable spirit. Stetson hats are still American, 327 00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:32,000 Speaker 1: made with pride right here in Texas. There's still the 328 00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:35,960 Speaker 1: unofficial crown of all self respecting cowboys, and Stetson is 329 00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:38,800 Speaker 1: proud to be on the field with America's team. Find 330 00:16:38,800 --> 00:16:43,680 Speaker 1: a retailer nearest Hwitt Stetson dot com, slash Cowboys The 331 00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:48,120 Speaker 1: Cowboys Way, where sixteen Hall of Famers and five championships 332 00:16:48,120 --> 00:16:51,480 Speaker 1: shows us what success looks like. Where Turkey is always 333 00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:54,520 Speaker 1: the second best part of Thanksgiving Day, where we are 334 00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:58,640 Speaker 1: all defined by one single thing, the star, where we 335 00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:01,640 Speaker 1: as fans know it's our job to keep the tradition going. 336 00:17:02,280 --> 00:17:04,560 Speaker 1: Bank of America is proud to be the official bank 337 00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:07,119 Speaker 1: of the Dallas Cowboys and to support the quest of 338 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:10,879 Speaker 1: living life the Cowboys Way. Copyright twenty twenty. Bank of 339 00:17:10,920 --> 00:17:14,040 Speaker 1: America Corporation. 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Back to football 358 00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:15,879 Speaker 1: four oh one King, Welcome back to the Football four 359 00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:17,840 Speaker 1: oh one K I m R J. Chappy. He is 360 00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:20,720 Speaker 1: bo Repka of the football Glory Hall. We still have 361 00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:23,400 Speaker 1: our best bets coming up here where we went three 362 00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:26,800 Speaker 1: and ozo in this segment last week on this very podcast. 363 00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:31,359 Speaker 1: But let's get ahead look at it this week with 364 00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:34,640 Speaker 1: both the Cowboys in terms of that they're under or overvalued. 365 00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:38,880 Speaker 1: But let's start with the Meyer Gruden effect. John Gruden 366 00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:44,920 Speaker 1: unceremoniously to say the least has resigned his position as 367 00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:51,000 Speaker 1: the head coach of Aras. Meanwhile, Urban Meyer, I mean, 368 00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:53,639 Speaker 1: who knows the hell he's doing down at Jacksonville. He 369 00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:57,040 Speaker 1: may have been the guy to leak the emails to 370 00:18:57,040 --> 00:18:59,880 Speaker 1: to the to the Wall Street Journal. Just get off 371 00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:03,920 Speaker 1: my back and get out John Gruden's son. What is 372 00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:09,280 Speaker 1: what is the effect of these two numbnuts, is, I 373 00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:13,280 Speaker 1: guess is the way to say in Las Vegas. Well, 374 00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:17,600 Speaker 1: it's definitely two different stories. So start with Jacksonville. Irban Meyer. 375 00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:21,000 Speaker 1: The obvious narrative last week is that they're his team, 376 00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:24,400 Speaker 1: quit on them versus a wounded Tennessee team. That's what's 377 00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:27,639 Speaker 1: being said right out loud in the media. That's simply 378 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:34,199 Speaker 1: not true. You know, they they're just not a very 379 00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:39,560 Speaker 1: good football team right now. But if you looked at 380 00:19:39,560 --> 00:19:43,480 Speaker 1: that game, they actually out gained Tennessee in that game 381 00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:46,359 Speaker 1: by about one hundred yards and they had more first downs. 382 00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:49,280 Speaker 1: So Jacksonville just turned the ball over twice. One of 383 00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:51,320 Speaker 1: them was on the seven yard line. One of them 384 00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:53,600 Speaker 1: went for a touchdown, which was the first possession of 385 00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:55,640 Speaker 1: the game. You know, when you do that as young team, 386 00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:57,919 Speaker 1: your confidence is going to be shaken. It's probably not 387 00:19:57,960 --> 00:19:59,520 Speaker 1: gonna go well for it. If you look at the 388 00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:02,000 Speaker 1: deep end the leaks in that game, they really didn't 389 00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:06,720 Speaker 1: get out played. That bad happenstance happened. Tennessee was definitely 390 00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:09,200 Speaker 1: desperate for a win. They know they can win the 391 00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:12,479 Speaker 1: division walking away, and they should. After Indie coughed up 392 00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:14,480 Speaker 1: that game, which by the way, Baltimore had a four 393 00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:18,520 Speaker 1: percent chance at one point two win that game, four percent, 394 00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:20,800 Speaker 1: and they came all the way back and did it. 395 00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:24,040 Speaker 1: So we love football. Man, if you had an indie 396 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:25,679 Speaker 1: indust survival league, I don't know why you would, but 397 00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:26,720 Speaker 1: if you did, or if you had them on the 398 00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:30,240 Speaker 1: money line, if you bet them live Wolf was that rough? 399 00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:34,240 Speaker 1: But it was what we said on the FJH podcast, 400 00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:36,720 Speaker 1: And I heard you or I think your Sean, maybe 401 00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:39,280 Speaker 1: both of you said, if you looked at what the 402 00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:42,600 Speaker 1: urban Mier thing was, wasn't really as negative as it 403 00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:45,480 Speaker 1: being portrayed. Because the truth is we don't know, none 404 00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:47,040 Speaker 1: of us know. None of us are in there, and 405 00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:49,800 Speaker 1: unless you're in that locker room, you don't really know. 406 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:53,240 Speaker 1: But what I do know is the media will sensationalize 407 00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:57,399 Speaker 1: anything negative, right because positive things in our story if 408 00:20:57,640 --> 00:20:59,719 Speaker 1: the real story is ninety percent of the guys are 409 00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:02,240 Speaker 1: high five in him and saying, hey man, you know, 410 00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:04,359 Speaker 1: as good looking as you are much money, she should 411 00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:06,159 Speaker 1: have been better looking, she should have been younger, you know, 412 00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:08,920 Speaker 1: they could have been ribbing him right. And then one guy, 413 00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:12,000 Speaker 1: the backup tight end, he's like, you know, I'm a 414 00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:14,639 Speaker 1: hardcore Christian. I don't believe in this, and he's terrible, 415 00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:16,600 Speaker 1: and he's the anonymous quote, right, and then all of 416 00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:18,840 Speaker 1: a sudden, the whole locker rooms and get some YadA 417 00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:21,680 Speaker 1: YadA YadA. I don't know, and like I said, nobody 418 00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:24,679 Speaker 1: does if they're telling the truth. But I can tell 419 00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:26,960 Speaker 1: you from their play they did not go lay down 420 00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:30,320 Speaker 1: on that man. So I think that it's probably not 421 00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:33,800 Speaker 1: as bad as everybody says. However, I'm not saying everyone 422 00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:36,960 Speaker 1: man is a good dude. In fact, from everything I've heard, 423 00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:39,080 Speaker 1: he's actually not a good dude. In fact, I was 424 00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:41,159 Speaker 1: listening to a podcast earlier this week. One of the 425 00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:44,359 Speaker 1: best stories ever heard was an experienced college writer. He's 426 00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:46,480 Speaker 1: actually a husband voter. It was in one of the 427 00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:49,200 Speaker 1: college you know, coaching conventions, Shoppy and they were doing 428 00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:51,320 Speaker 1: you know they do, like fun games or an adotal 429 00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 1: questions and stuff like that. He said that there was 430 00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:56,920 Speaker 1: a question if you had to pick any coach in 431 00:21:56,960 --> 00:21:59,920 Speaker 1: the room to stand with you in a fist fight 432 00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:03,520 Speaker 1: versus two other coaches, who would you pick? And most 433 00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:05,640 Speaker 1: coaches were picking, you know, the Biellum was the ETOs, 434 00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:08,200 Speaker 1: the Ty Willingham's the big dudes, right, you want somebody 435 00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:09,840 Speaker 1: to stay inside you. You You can take a punch and 436 00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:13,800 Speaker 1: deliver something. But one guy who's still still a college 437 00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:17,760 Speaker 1: head coach picked urban Meyer, and he asked them, why 438 00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:20,840 Speaker 1: why would you pick urban Meyer? And the coach showed 439 00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,560 Speaker 1: him because every coach in this room hates that m 440 00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:26,280 Speaker 1: effort and wanted to punch him the face while they're 441 00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:28,960 Speaker 1: beating him. I'm gonna walk the hell away from here. 442 00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:32,520 Speaker 1: That's why I picked Urban Meyers. So obviously he's not 443 00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:34,600 Speaker 1: very well liked. So I'm not saying the good dudes 444 00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:38,160 Speaker 1: a good dude. I'm not saying those reports are incorrect. 445 00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:39,720 Speaker 1: What I'm saying is what I saw in the field 446 00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:41,840 Speaker 1: where the stats say is they didn't lay down on 447 00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:45,800 Speaker 1: now The Raiders, on the other hand, absolutely went out 448 00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:49,960 Speaker 1: there and laid down on John Gruden. The question I 449 00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:52,040 Speaker 1: don't know did the players know the extent of the 450 00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:55,439 Speaker 1: emails that we found out publicly Monday night. I have 451 00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:57,879 Speaker 1: no idea, But what I do know is they went 452 00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:01,200 Speaker 1: and lost by eleven points at home to a quarterback 453 00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:03,520 Speaker 1: who threw for one hundred and eleven yards and had 454 00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:06,080 Speaker 1: the fifth worst QBR of the week, and it is 455 00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:13,120 Speaker 1: still analytically the worst quarterback in the NFL unequivocally. That's 456 00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:15,959 Speaker 1: what I do know, and Shoppy, if the players did 457 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:18,159 Speaker 1: know the extent of that, that wouldn't make sense. Because 458 00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:22,800 Speaker 1: there was an email that you and Sean talked about 459 00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:26,320 Speaker 1: about Eric Reid on one point through the fan I 460 00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:28,280 Speaker 1: think that you guys nailed it. You said it was 461 00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:32,320 Speaker 1: the most egregious offense in the locker room, not overall whatever, 462 00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:35,040 Speaker 1: but in the locker room, the most egregious offense. And 463 00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:37,040 Speaker 1: I wanted you to make that point again right here, 464 00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:39,880 Speaker 1: because first of all, I think you're spot on it. Secondly, 465 00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:42,760 Speaker 1: I haven't heard anybody else in the country highlight that 466 00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:46,120 Speaker 1: is part of what would really affect the locker room. Oh, 467 00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:48,359 Speaker 1: thank you, Matt. At the point is is, you know, 468 00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:54,400 Speaker 1: I don't know how the locker room feels about female referees. 469 00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:59,320 Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know how they feel about 470 00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:02,800 Speaker 1: Michael Sam getting drafted. I think I know, but I 471 00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:05,160 Speaker 1: but I don't know. I know how they feel about 472 00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:08,960 Speaker 1: Eric Reid and Colin Kaepernick for the most part. For 473 00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:11,880 Speaker 1: the most part, I think most players view those two 474 00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:16,360 Speaker 1: guys as guys who, you know, we're willing to give 475 00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:21,920 Speaker 1: up their careers for something they believed in. Um, even 476 00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:24,840 Speaker 1: if you don't agree with what Reid and Kaepernick did 477 00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:28,160 Speaker 1: or the approach they took, the respect that they were 478 00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:30,119 Speaker 1: willing to give up for their careers for something they 479 00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:34,760 Speaker 1: believe in is quite an admirable trade. I think and 480 00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:36,320 Speaker 1: and and I think the point is is that you know, 481 00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:42,199 Speaker 1: if you're gonna to bash Eric Reid in that, you know. 482 00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:43,800 Speaker 1: I don't think that sits well with a lot of 483 00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:46,560 Speaker 1: the NFL players today. I don't think a lot of 484 00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:52,600 Speaker 1: the NFL players they're almost there's there's a mafia term. 485 00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:56,000 Speaker 1: They're made guys. You can't go after them. One of 486 00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:59,120 Speaker 1: the players can maybe go after them, but an outsider, 487 00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:03,600 Speaker 1: a coach really can't. You got to get permission to 488 00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:07,640 Speaker 1: go after Eric Reid or Colin Kaepernick if you're gonna 489 00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:10,280 Speaker 1: do so, from the players. I think that's how they 490 00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:13,320 Speaker 1: view it. So I think that was in the in 491 00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:17,360 Speaker 1: the constructs of the locker room. Remember not overall overall, 492 00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:19,840 Speaker 1: what you say about Michael sam what you say about 493 00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:23,719 Speaker 1: women referees, what you say about well, I mean obviously 494 00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:26,720 Speaker 1: the Demorris Smith. This aspect is huge too. In the 495 00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:30,399 Speaker 1: constructs of the NFL locker room. You're calling one of 496 00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:35,600 Speaker 1: their fraternity brothers. You're calling him out when they view 497 00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:39,080 Speaker 1: him as a guy who who basically martyred himself to 498 00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:42,840 Speaker 1: get it, you know, to get change. That's not gonna work. 499 00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:46,840 Speaker 1: That's not gonna work in the locker room. Yeah, man, I, 500 00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:49,000 Speaker 1: like I said, I haven't heard anybody else really highlight 501 00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:51,480 Speaker 1: that part. And I think that if they did know, right, 502 00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:53,639 Speaker 1: the players did know the extents or more of the 503 00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:57,760 Speaker 1: extent before the game that was evident on the field, 504 00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:01,280 Speaker 1: because they absolutely laid in egg in front of a 505 00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:04,600 Speaker 1: football team in the Bears. It's not good. And a quarterback, 506 00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:06,840 Speaker 1: like I said, it is the worst quarterback so far 507 00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:09,520 Speaker 1: in his young career in the NFL. And he threw 508 00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:11,199 Speaker 1: from one hundred and eleven yards and they lost by 509 00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:15,880 Speaker 1: eleven points. That doesn't happen in the NFL. So I think, 510 00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:19,320 Speaker 1: like I said, I don't know. And here's the bottom 511 00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:21,560 Speaker 1: line from all from all of this, here's what you 512 00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:24,920 Speaker 1: should take away from a handicapping perspective when it's come 513 00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:27,719 Speaker 1: to something like that, some sort of distraction, conserversy, whatever, 514 00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:30,719 Speaker 1: you know, it's not wise to assume how the players 515 00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:32,760 Speaker 1: will react because the truth is we don't know, like 516 00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:36,119 Speaker 1: Chubby said, their scale of the morality, the scale of 517 00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:38,520 Speaker 1: the morality, what they care about? What that we don't 518 00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:42,360 Speaker 1: know these people, they are all individual people, and nobody 519 00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:45,879 Speaker 1: outside of the locker room knows what the temperature is. Now, 520 00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,200 Speaker 1: one of the first golden rules of handicap is, if 521 00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:51,800 Speaker 1: you don't know something, try to find out right, because 522 00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:54,560 Speaker 1: if you do and you know something around the market, 523 00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:56,679 Speaker 1: you can create some value on it. But if you 524 00:26:56,800 --> 00:27:00,800 Speaker 1: can't find anything that the market doesn't know right, there's 525 00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:05,080 Speaker 1: no advantage for you as a player. And if if 526 00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:08,320 Speaker 1: there's no advantage for your player, you do not make 527 00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:11,440 Speaker 1: a bet because you don't just take narratives. Because here's 528 00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:13,360 Speaker 1: the thing. If all the media is saying the locker 529 00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:17,320 Speaker 1: room put on Jacksonville, well guess what everybody knows, or 530 00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:20,200 Speaker 1: everybody thinks they know, the lock locker rooms put on Jacksonville. 531 00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:22,840 Speaker 1: That means it's baked in the market. There is no value. 532 00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:25,879 Speaker 1: And you have to remember what a bet is. At 533 00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:28,600 Speaker 1: its core. A bet is you telling Vegas they're wrong. 534 00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:31,920 Speaker 1: They say, you know what, Vegas, You're wrong about this game, 535 00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:35,120 Speaker 1: and I'm right, and Vegas is like every ten year 536 00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:37,159 Speaker 1: old on the playground say okay, well i'll bet you. 537 00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:41,240 Speaker 1: I'll bet you for it. Right, So you should be 538 00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:43,399 Speaker 1: willing to lay your money down if you think that 539 00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:44,960 Speaker 1: they're wrong, because if you're not willing to lay your 540 00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:47,720 Speaker 1: money down, then you don't really mean we don't really 541 00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:50,520 Speaker 1: think that you're right. So that's not a bet. So 542 00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:54,080 Speaker 1: that's the main handicap and takeaway. If you know something, 543 00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:56,480 Speaker 1: if you like, if your cousin is on the team, something, 544 00:27:56,600 --> 00:28:00,560 Speaker 1: yessam inside information, man, go make your money. If you don't, 545 00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:03,760 Speaker 1: don't just take media narratives because even if the media 546 00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:07,440 Speaker 1: is right, even if right, then everybody knows the truth. 547 00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:10,119 Speaker 1: If everybody knows the truth, there's no value to that 548 00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:13,320 Speaker 1: in the line, right you you perceive value that's not there. 549 00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:18,000 Speaker 1: I promise you it's not there. Okay, good stuff. Uh. 550 00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:22,640 Speaker 1: And that's that's that is the difficulty that gamblers have 551 00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:26,200 Speaker 1: to figure out where the value is and if there's 552 00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:30,720 Speaker 1: value anywhere, Um, you know, take I'm just gonna take 553 00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:35,880 Speaker 1: you know, Alabama. How often is our value with Alabama? Right? 554 00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:41,240 Speaker 1: Were the point? What's that with them laying the points? Yeah? 555 00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:45,000 Speaker 1: Very rarely? Right. So the value is is that if 556 00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:48,000 Speaker 1: there's a bad line. Um, but the Old miss game, 557 00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:50,560 Speaker 1: maybe it was a bad line. I'm sorry. The Miami 558 00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:52,920 Speaker 1: game is a bad line. Yeah, that was a bad line. 559 00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:55,080 Speaker 1: That should have been like twenty six. That's the only 560 00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:57,880 Speaker 1: that's the only game we've bet on Alabama the entire season. 561 00:28:58,000 --> 00:28:59,760 Speaker 1: And we said it on the first episode of this podcast, 562 00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:01,880 Speaker 1: one of our free picks. They crushed them. That was 563 00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:04,920 Speaker 1: a terrible line. Terrible. Oh. You know, you know the Cowboys. 564 00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:09,200 Speaker 1: You know, the Cowboys are a team where I've well, 565 00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:11,400 Speaker 1: I thought all year this was easy money five and 566 00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:15,920 Speaker 1: oh baby, you're five and five ants easy money, you know, 567 00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:19,800 Speaker 1: And and the perception, it's funny, the perception naturally the 568 00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:24,600 Speaker 1: Cowboys has been a failure. I get it. I get it. 569 00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:27,800 Speaker 1: They've spent twenty five years doing that. You know, there's 570 00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:34,440 Speaker 1: this team is clicking right now. Ums, Vegas caught up. 571 00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:38,400 Speaker 1: They have, You think, why, Yeah, I think they have 572 00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:42,720 Speaker 1: because you know, Vegas is not going to continually get beat, 573 00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:47,280 Speaker 1: especially by a very public team like the Dallas Cowboys. 574 00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:49,280 Speaker 1: And there is no more public team in the NFL 575 00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:52,720 Speaker 1: than the Dallas Cowboys period. So we already said they're 576 00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:55,480 Speaker 1: not gonna go seventeen or no. Ats everybody ere knows 577 00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:58,520 Speaker 1: that it's the questions win. Is the shift happening? Well, 578 00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:01,760 Speaker 1: last week the Johns US seven, they were covering that 579 00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:05,640 Speaker 1: until your boy Jay Jeezy called a naked bootleg at 580 00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:08,000 Speaker 1: his quarterback killed. And I'm not picking on Jjs. I've 581 00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:10,000 Speaker 1: seen this throughout the league, but I don't understand why 582 00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:14,440 Speaker 1: would you ever ever called a bootleg play on the 583 00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:18,479 Speaker 1: goal line with no passing option for your quarterback, Like, 584 00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:20,520 Speaker 1: all you gotta do is just slip one guy out 585 00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:22,440 Speaker 1: there and then the defender has to hesitate for half 586 00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:25,280 Speaker 1: a second. Guess what half a second hesitation? You know 587 00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:29,040 Speaker 1: Jones scores, but he didn't. I don't know why. I mean, 588 00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:31,320 Speaker 1: maybe there's something schematically where you just can't. I'm not 589 00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:33,000 Speaker 1: a coach, I don't know. It just seems like a weird, 590 00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:35,520 Speaker 1: weird idea to me, and a really bad one too. 591 00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:38,960 Speaker 1: But they did do that, and old dumb face Junior 592 00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:41,560 Speaker 1: got knocked out right there on the goal line and 593 00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:45,920 Speaker 1: that was that. So we look ahead to this week 594 00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:48,160 Speaker 1: now all three from all the teams that Dallas has 595 00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:51,480 Speaker 1: faced so far, the best camp for in New England 596 00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:55,840 Speaker 1: is Carolina. They're both top ten defensive DVOA. They're both 597 00:30:55,960 --> 00:31:00,400 Speaker 1: bottom third and offensive DVOA and Caroline buy power rankings 598 00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:02,560 Speaker 1: and the Advance, just like the Van said, analytics, is 599 00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:06,560 Speaker 1: slightly better than New England so far, about half a point. 600 00:31:06,640 --> 00:31:08,920 Speaker 1: But here's the rub. Carolina is a point better than 601 00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:12,440 Speaker 1: we projected them the preseason, but they're trending downward quickly. 602 00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:15,360 Speaker 1: New England is about a point better than we projected 603 00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:18,080 Speaker 1: in the preseason and they're holding steady. Dallas is only 604 00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:20,640 Speaker 1: half a point better than we projected the preseason, but 605 00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:24,360 Speaker 1: we believe, In fact, I know we were higher on 606 00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:28,200 Speaker 1: the Cowboys than the market was, and that's why Choppy 607 00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:31,080 Speaker 1: is led to five and oh success because we thought 608 00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:33,120 Speaker 1: the Cowboys were going to be better than Vegas did. 609 00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:35,920 Speaker 1: Obviously going in the season, we've seen value every week 610 00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:39,280 Speaker 1: and that's why they're five and up. So the Cowboys 611 00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:42,680 Speaker 1: had the market beat early in the season. But if 612 00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:45,120 Speaker 1: you think Carolinas or Carolina is better or a point 613 00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:47,520 Speaker 1: better than projected, New England's a point better than projected. 614 00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:49,680 Speaker 1: Cowboys are half a point better, but we were the 615 00:31:49,760 --> 00:31:51,640 Speaker 1: highest on him, so let's call it a net zero. 616 00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:54,960 Speaker 1: Now that the markets caught up, they're basically all about 617 00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:59,040 Speaker 1: the same amount better than the open penning market. Well, preseason, 618 00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:01,840 Speaker 1: Carolina was minus or plus five and a half in 619 00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:04,120 Speaker 1: Dallas a kickoff that was minus four and a half. 620 00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:08,120 Speaker 1: Now flash forward this week, this game, preseason, New England 621 00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:10,720 Speaker 1: minus one now is Dallas minus four. That means two things. 622 00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:13,680 Speaker 1: Since home feels about two points right now in the NFL, 623 00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:16,959 Speaker 1: that means New England will be plus eight in Dallas. 624 00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:19,000 Speaker 1: That means New England is two and a half points 625 00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:22,680 Speaker 1: worse than Carolina. We already told you they're only about 626 00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:24,800 Speaker 1: a half a point apart. That would also mean that 627 00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:27,640 Speaker 1: New England was overrated coming into the season and Dallas 628 00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:30,120 Speaker 1: is underrated. Now maybe both of those are true in 629 00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:33,600 Speaker 1: the market, but not by us. Both have been upgraded 630 00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:37,000 Speaker 1: to a net zero respective advantage or powering soul. What 631 00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:38,920 Speaker 1: we're saying is and the value in this game is 632 00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:41,280 Speaker 1: on New England, and for the first time all season, 633 00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:44,200 Speaker 1: the Cowboys are getting overvalue. Now, that doesn't mean the 634 00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:47,560 Speaker 1: Cowboys won't win. They're clearly the better team, so it 635 00:32:47,600 --> 00:32:50,400 Speaker 1: doesn't even mean that they won't cover, but it does 636 00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:53,440 Speaker 1: absolutely mean they are being overvalued. And have to ask yourself, 637 00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:56,880 Speaker 1: will the turnovers continue? Right? If you win the turnover battle, 638 00:32:56,960 --> 00:33:01,000 Speaker 1: that's seventy three winning ats in the NFL. Will the 639 00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:04,520 Speaker 1: injury look to other team star players hold out right, 640 00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:08,480 Speaker 1: the McCaffrey, the Jones, the Barclays, the gladays that, you know, 641 00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:11,360 Speaker 1: all the things that have happened. If all that continues, 642 00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:14,400 Speaker 1: then yes, the Cowboys will continue to cover. And but 643 00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:17,080 Speaker 1: I mean they're gonna continue to win football games regardless 644 00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:18,920 Speaker 1: of They're a really good football team. They're now top 645 00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:22,400 Speaker 1: five in our power rankings. So will they continue to 646 00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:25,800 Speaker 1: cover this margin? Again, a lot of things got to 647 00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:27,920 Speaker 1: go right for you to beat Vegas. Once Vegas gets 648 00:33:27,960 --> 00:33:29,680 Speaker 1: a beat on you, I think Vegas has the beat 649 00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:32,600 Speaker 1: on them now, so we'll see about the margin. But again, 650 00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:34,480 Speaker 1: they are better football team in New England. They should 651 00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:39,240 Speaker 1: go win this football game for sure. Man I I do. 652 00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:45,720 Speaker 1: I do find fascinating how things can shift the perception. 653 00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:47,880 Speaker 1: You know, once the public figures it out and the 654 00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:50,000 Speaker 1: publisher goesn't start betting, and you know there's a lot 655 00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:53,280 Speaker 1: of cowboy bets out there. You know, that's interesting. They're 656 00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:56,480 Speaker 1: overvalued now at four points. That's that's that's surprising to me. 657 00:33:56,480 --> 00:33:59,560 Speaker 1: I would have thought overvalue that's six on the road. 658 00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:03,680 Speaker 1: But you know you're the numbers guy, not me. You 659 00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:05,800 Speaker 1: know way more about this than I do. All right, 660 00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:07,640 Speaker 1: So that is the look ahead it this week in 661 00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:10,120 Speaker 1: the National Football League. We will have our best bets 662 00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:12,560 Speaker 1: coming up next on the Football four oh one K. 663 00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:20,600 Speaker 1: Welcome back to the Football four oh one K. I'm 664 00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:23,399 Speaker 1: r J. Choppy. He is BO replica football glory Hole, 665 00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:26,120 Speaker 1: and we have got the football four oh one K 666 00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:29,400 Speaker 1: best bets of the weekend for your reminder. Hate to 667 00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:31,239 Speaker 1: remind you again we were three and oh last week. 668 00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:34,360 Speaker 1: Hate to keep bringing that up. To keep bringing that up, 669 00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:37,560 Speaker 1: let's start with College BO. We got the u NC 670 00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:43,759 Speaker 1: tar Heels minus seven against Miami. Yeah, this line is 671 00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:47,000 Speaker 1: undervalue here about about four points. UNC is being severely 672 00:34:47,040 --> 00:34:49,759 Speaker 1: downgraded here due to that los against Florida State, who 673 00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:51,840 Speaker 1: is now two and four on the year and they stink. 674 00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:54,440 Speaker 1: But UNC was a sixteen point six and a half 675 00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:57,360 Speaker 1: point favor in that one and lost outright. Well, Florida 676 00:34:57,400 --> 00:34:59,680 Speaker 1: State is mid fifties in our power rankings and guess 677 00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:02,600 Speaker 1: what so is Miami. So the line going from sixteen 678 00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:05,360 Speaker 1: and a half to seven way too much of a 679 00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:08,359 Speaker 1: marketing correction. UNC losses turned over battle to Florida State 680 00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:10,560 Speaker 1: in that game, and the bigger row was Florida State 681 00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:13,080 Speaker 1: was three for three in the red zone. UNC was 682 00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:16,399 Speaker 1: only one of three on the season. UNC is eighty 683 00:35:16,440 --> 00:35:18,320 Speaker 1: three percent in the red zone scoring the ball in 684 00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:21,800 Speaker 1: Miami is one hundred percent giving up red zone scores 685 00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:24,920 Speaker 1: on defense all season long. On the flip side, UNC 686 00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:27,200 Speaker 1: only gives up scores seventy eight percent of the time 687 00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:28,640 Speaker 1: and Miami stinks in the red zone the end on 688 00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:31,839 Speaker 1: the score seventy one percent of the time. Big match 689 00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:35,560 Speaker 1: up here, advantage for UNC as they take they're gonna 690 00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:37,960 Speaker 1: They're gonna write this chip against Miami in this conferenation. 691 00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:40,759 Speaker 1: I love UNC to win by double digits. Here go 692 00:35:40,920 --> 00:35:44,880 Speaker 1: tar Heels, all right, Carolina minus seven over Miami. How 693 00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:48,279 Speaker 1: about Baylor and BYU. Baylor has been an upstar team 694 00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:55,359 Speaker 1: this year. BYU looked this week against Boys State. Why 695 00:35:55,520 --> 00:36:00,680 Speaker 1: will Baylor give the Coogs their second straight loss? And 696 00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:03,160 Speaker 1: they gotta get those bicycles in gear up there? The 697 00:36:03,200 --> 00:36:06,520 Speaker 1: Boys foul BYU or ranked nineteenth in the country. Choppyam 698 00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:08,880 Speaker 1: still laying six points into the public. They might not 699 00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:11,879 Speaker 1: understand and they might be against US kind of hope 700 00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:16,359 Speaker 1: they are. And I'm sure every you know, fake handicapper 701 00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:18,719 Speaker 1: on Twitter will be on BYU who works for a 702 00:36:18,719 --> 00:36:21,759 Speaker 1: sports book or something. Right, they'll be the darlings this week, 703 00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:24,279 Speaker 1: they'll be the darling dogs. But here's why the sharpes 704 00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:27,680 Speaker 1: will be on the on Baylor. BYU has two wins 705 00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:29,799 Speaker 1: over top twenty five teams this year, Arizona State in 706 00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:32,840 Speaker 1: Utah and in fact, BYU want us money on the 707 00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:36,200 Speaker 1: Utah game for further proof that you know, we we 708 00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:38,680 Speaker 1: like BYU. We like by US a football team, but 709 00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:41,600 Speaker 1: not this week. The story behind those wins. BYU has 710 00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:44,400 Speaker 1: not beaten a single team in the top twenty EPA 711 00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:47,640 Speaker 1: on offense besides Arizona State, and in that game, Arizona 712 00:36:47,680 --> 00:36:50,600 Speaker 1: State out game BYU boe hundred yards, but they committed 713 00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:55,799 Speaker 1: four turnovers and had seventh teen penalties. I didn't even 714 00:36:55,840 --> 00:37:00,279 Speaker 1: know that was possible. Well, Baylor's twentieth overall any PA 715 00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:02,879 Speaker 1: and offense, and their only loss was to Okay State, 716 00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:06,560 Speaker 1: who's twenty seventh in the country EPA on defense BYU 717 00:37:06,719 --> 00:37:10,520 Speaker 1: sixty ninth EPA on defense or defense not great So translation, 718 00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:13,080 Speaker 1: Baila will be scoring the ball early and often BYU 719 00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:15,279 Speaker 1: will not be able to keep up. Our model has 720 00:37:15,280 --> 00:37:17,440 Speaker 1: a bailor scoring around thirty five to forty points in 721 00:37:17,440 --> 00:37:20,440 Speaker 1: this game, BYU finishing around twenty to twenty five. So 722 00:37:20,560 --> 00:37:23,960 Speaker 1: sick them Bears, all right. Finally to the NFL, Jacksonville 723 00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:26,520 Speaker 1: plus three and a half from Miami. Do the Jags 724 00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:30,359 Speaker 1: get their first win of the year? Man, they do? 725 00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:33,879 Speaker 1: I'm calling it right here. First off, all right, so 726 00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:36,840 Speaker 1: Miami is one of the three worst teams in our 727 00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:41,719 Speaker 1: power ranks in the NFL. So is Jacksonville. So I'm 728 00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:44,040 Speaker 1: not gonna say, you know this to be dominant either way, 729 00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:46,120 Speaker 1: but this line is telling me that two is definitely 730 00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:48,319 Speaker 1: a possibility here in fact, and think I think that 731 00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:50,440 Speaker 1: Vegas is kind of expecting him to play. But the 732 00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:52,719 Speaker 1: Miami offense has been abysmal with or without two it. 733 00:37:53,120 --> 00:37:55,880 Speaker 1: They're twenty ninth and DVOA so far on offense to 734 00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:59,440 Speaker 1: jack surprisingly or twenty third in DBA offense, which is 735 00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:02,200 Speaker 1: still really bad, but it's better than twenty nine. And 736 00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:04,560 Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence has not been good, but their rushing attack 737 00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:06,760 Speaker 1: is second to DVOA in the league, and the Dolphins 738 00:38:06,760 --> 00:38:10,600 Speaker 1: on defense are twenty first in rushing DVOA defense. So 739 00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:12,719 Speaker 1: a couple of the fact that they have the twentieth 740 00:38:12,960 --> 00:38:17,200 Speaker 1: best rushing EP eight defense, that tells the story that 741 00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:20,880 Speaker 1: Miami cannot stop the run. Every young quarterback shoppy. They 742 00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:23,759 Speaker 1: need a running game. So now Jacksonville has been terrible 743 00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:26,759 Speaker 1: on defense. However, this is if two starts will be 744 00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:29,320 Speaker 1: his first game coming back. They're gonna have limited practice 745 00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:31,880 Speaker 1: time because they're going to London, right, so you worry 746 00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:35,040 Speaker 1: about him being poorly prepared for this game. And now 747 00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:37,600 Speaker 1: here's the value part. This is essentially a neutral field, 748 00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:39,439 Speaker 1: which would mean the Dolphins are three and a half 749 00:38:39,480 --> 00:38:42,279 Speaker 1: points better than the Jacks while by our powering because 750 00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:45,520 Speaker 1: they're actually a point worse than Jacksonville. So now in 751 00:38:45,560 --> 00:38:48,919 Speaker 1: certain two of let's give them the two points from 752 00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:51,000 Speaker 1: Rossett to two. I think that's fair. Even if you 753 00:38:51,040 --> 00:38:53,560 Speaker 1: said two and a half, that means miamis either half 754 00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:55,360 Speaker 1: a point or a point favorite. I means you're getting 755 00:38:55,360 --> 00:38:57,960 Speaker 1: either three or two and a half points worth of value. 756 00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:01,279 Speaker 1: Here to the jackson the coach and the quarterback have 757 00:39:01,400 --> 00:39:04,319 Speaker 1: not made this trip for Jacksonville London. The organization has 758 00:39:04,360 --> 00:39:07,400 Speaker 1: made it more times than any other team in the NFL, 759 00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:10,560 Speaker 1: and you know, they'll have it at least a slightly 760 00:39:10,560 --> 00:39:13,560 Speaker 1: pro Jacksonville crowd. They're in London, right and that's more 761 00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:16,560 Speaker 1: than they probably have in Jacksonville, so kind of a 762 00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:19,839 Speaker 1: home team. The organization definitely knows this place inside and out. 763 00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:21,279 Speaker 1: They know how to make the trip, they know how 764 00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:24,040 Speaker 1: to be successful over there. And yeah, I'm calling my shot. 765 00:39:24,120 --> 00:39:26,439 Speaker 1: Jacksonville gets their first one of the season right here. 766 00:39:26,920 --> 00:39:29,359 Speaker 1: And now take the plus three and a half, you know, 767 00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:32,400 Speaker 1: just in case I'm wrong, sprinkle something on the money line. 768 00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:35,200 Speaker 1: But we do see a quarterback that is trending up 769 00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:38,400 Speaker 1: in Spider Popular Opinion. He started thirty second, you know, 770 00:39:38,440 --> 00:39:41,720 Speaker 1: an EPA plus CPO. He's up to thirtieth. That's positive movement. 771 00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:45,759 Speaker 1: And the last thing on this gave Jacksonville is one 772 00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:49,800 Speaker 1: of the best adjusted sacred blocking offensive lines in the NFL. 773 00:39:50,239 --> 00:39:52,839 Speaker 1: Miami is absolutely one of the worst. That equals time 774 00:39:52,880 --> 00:39:55,640 Speaker 1: for Trevor Lawrence and probably trouble for two of them. 775 00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:59,799 Speaker 1: Very good. Okay, pizza money parlay Wyoming plus one, forty, 776 00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:03,600 Speaker 1: Kent State plus two, fifteen you Tet plus two Twitter. 777 00:40:03,600 --> 00:40:06,399 Speaker 1: We're gonna hit one of these this year. We're gonna 778 00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:09,759 Speaker 1: hit one of these this year, we've been so close, man, 779 00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:12,200 Speaker 1: We've been dancing all around it. So I hope this 780 00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:14,520 Speaker 1: is the Saturday that we do the Mundey Dance. Baby. 781 00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:16,759 Speaker 1: And by the way, we already want to know this 782 00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:19,480 Speaker 1: week you la la a little raging Cajun action last 783 00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:20,960 Speaker 1: night on the Tuesday. If you don't think it can 784 00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:23,080 Speaker 1: go up on a Tuesday, you obviously have not heard 785 00:40:23,120 --> 00:40:25,839 Speaker 1: that song and you're not following closely enough. Because there's 786 00:40:25,880 --> 00:40:28,040 Speaker 1: always money to be my baby, all right, I always 787 00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:29,680 Speaker 1: money to be babe Bo. Where can we find the 788 00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:32,520 Speaker 1: Football Glory Hole. You find us at the Football Glory 789 00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:35,040 Speaker 1: Hole dot Com. You can find us on Twitter at 790 00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:38,040 Speaker 1: fg H Vegas. And you can find our podcast, the 791 00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:41,960 Speaker 1: Football Glory Hole Podcast anywhere, and I mean anywhere you 792 00:40:42,000 --> 00:40:45,239 Speaker 1: find podcast. I'm r j Choppy. Catch me weekdays money 793 00:40:45,239 --> 00:40:47,960 Speaker 1: of your Friday. That's also weekdays too. I was redundant 794 00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:50,279 Speaker 1: one oh five to the Fan and one oh five 795 00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:52,640 Speaker 1: through the Fan dot Com in the Odyssey app myself 796 00:40:52,640 --> 00:40:54,799 Speaker 1: Sean Shreef, Troy Hughes five thirty to ten. Also on 797 00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:59,520 Speaker 1: Twitter at our Ja Choppy. Let's win some money for Bo. 798 00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:01,879 Speaker 1: I'm r Tuty Next week on the Football four oh 799 00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:02,239 Speaker 1: one k