1 00:00:01,080 --> 00:00:03,280 Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting Pros. It's time to play 2 00:00:03,279 --> 00:00:06,280 Speaker 1: your bets. It's me Joey Pa joe p Zapia and 3 00:00:06,320 --> 00:00:10,960 Speaker 1: this is bp NFL. It's Super wild Card weekend. And 4 00:00:11,000 --> 00:00:13,520 Speaker 1: who better to talk about it with than my super 5 00:00:13,560 --> 00:00:17,160 Speaker 1: co host Andrew ericson the Undertaker himself. We've got six 6 00:00:17,239 --> 00:00:21,000 Speaker 1: games over this long weekend of football. I actually do 7 00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:23,759 Speaker 1: like the way it's two than three than the one. 8 00:00:23,880 --> 00:00:25,960 Speaker 1: You know, just want to can't get enough football. We're 9 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:27,920 Speaker 1: gonna repeat it all again next week too. We're gonna 10 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:30,120 Speaker 1: be here, so subscribe to the channel and of course 11 00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:33,840 Speaker 1: subscribe to the feed as well. Plus for this Wildcard weekend, 12 00:00:33,880 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 1: in case you might not know this, myself and Scott 13 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:40,520 Speaker 1: Bogman four fifteen Eastern on Saturday, the first half betting 14 00:00:40,520 --> 00:00:44,120 Speaker 1: live stream the Rams and the Carolina Panthers. We're gonna 15 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:46,640 Speaker 1: be right here for it, so make sure you go 16 00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:50,320 Speaker 1: ahead and subscribe over at twitch dot tv Slash Fantasy Pros. 17 00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 1: That's where we're gonna be and it's gonna be on 18 00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:54,680 Speaker 1: the YouTube channel as well. But if you want to 19 00:00:54,680 --> 00:00:56,360 Speaker 1: interact with us live, you gotta go to twitch. So 20 00:00:56,560 --> 00:01:00,280 Speaker 1: Twitch dot tv slash fantasy pros. Go subscribe there, Amazon Prime, 21 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 1: five Bucks, get rid of commercials, all that stuff. But 22 00:01:02,400 --> 00:01:03,920 Speaker 1: Bogs and I did this last year too for a 23 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:06,080 Speaker 1: couple of playoff games and it was a great time. 24 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:08,560 Speaker 1: So join us this year. We have fun, we make bets, 25 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:10,280 Speaker 1: we talk about the game, and if you're just watching 26 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:11,920 Speaker 1: the games by yourself, and he's the one to hang 27 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:14,400 Speaker 1: out with. Who better than me? It's got Bogmann and 28 00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 1: of course Andrew Rickson, but he's busy, he's too cool 29 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:17,880 Speaker 1: for us, So it's just gonna be me a Bos. 30 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:21,480 Speaker 2: That's what I don't know This Saturday. My wife is 31 00:01:21,480 --> 00:01:23,360 Speaker 2: going to see a movie and I'm going to be 32 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 2: by myself, so I might be hopping out on the 33 00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:26,080 Speaker 2: stream hanging out. 34 00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:28,839 Speaker 1: Well, I hopped on the stream with Seth and Boggs 35 00:01:28,840 --> 00:01:32,640 Speaker 1: for the college football playoffs earlier this year, So why 36 00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:35,440 Speaker 1: not come join us, Andrew Rickson, that's a good way 37 00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:38,120 Speaker 1: to spend your Saturday afternoon. All right, let's get to 38 00:01:38,160 --> 00:01:40,160 Speaker 1: it and talk about some of the bets here. Andrew 39 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:41,960 Speaker 1: Rickson wants you to kick us off here because you know, 40 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:45,280 Speaker 1: on the early lines we were on opposite ends of 41 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:47,440 Speaker 1: the spectrum on this game. I continue to be on 42 00:01:47,480 --> 00:01:51,280 Speaker 1: my spectrum for whatever that's worth, and you you are 43 00:01:51,320 --> 00:01:56,560 Speaker 1: continuing to stand pat with your Carolina Panthers. Let's talk 44 00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:57,080 Speaker 1: about it. 45 00:01:57,480 --> 00:02:00,520 Speaker 2: Joe, hashtag keep pounding. That's what it comes to to 46 00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:06,080 Speaker 2: the Carolina Panthers. It's the process. Play double digit home underdogs, 47 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:09,200 Speaker 2: check plus ten and a half. Panthers cover the spread 48 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:11,800 Speaker 2: each of the last ten games following a loss. They've 49 00:02:11,840 --> 00:02:16,480 Speaker 2: covered thirteen straight as underdogs following a loss. I don't 50 00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:18,079 Speaker 2: know what else I need to tell you, guys. Obviously 51 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:20,400 Speaker 2: it's too many points. It's too many points for a 52 00:02:20,440 --> 00:02:22,840 Speaker 2: team laying ten and a half on the road to 53 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:25,239 Speaker 2: take the Rams, in my opinion, a Dome team when 54 00:02:25,320 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 2: there is rain in the forecast in a matchup where 55 00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:30,920 Speaker 2: we've already seen the Panthers beat the Rams. Now, do 56 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:33,040 Speaker 2: I expect that same type of outcome? Now, I'm not 57 00:02:33,040 --> 00:02:34,720 Speaker 2: picking the Panthers on the money line. I don't think 58 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 2: this is an upset special type of situation. The Rams 59 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:39,240 Speaker 2: are clearly the better team. That's not my selling one 60 00:02:39,280 --> 00:02:42,120 Speaker 2: year is that, Oh well, the Panthers can repeat history 61 00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:45,560 Speaker 2: and upset the Matthew Stafford led Rams two times in 62 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:47,840 Speaker 2: the same season. I don't think that's the case, but 63 00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:50,680 Speaker 2: I think that they can just keep this within striking distance, 64 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:53,480 Speaker 2: keep it within ten points. The Panthers are going to 65 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:55,919 Speaker 2: get back their starting offensive guard, Robert Hunt. I think 66 00:02:55,960 --> 00:02:57,839 Speaker 2: that gives them a massive boost in the run game. 67 00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:00,360 Speaker 2: And that's what you look at Dave Canalis. That's what 68 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:02,440 Speaker 2: he did in the first matchup. He tried to keep 69 00:03:02,480 --> 00:03:04,639 Speaker 2: the ball away from Matthew Stafford, he tried to run 70 00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:06,520 Speaker 2: the ball. He'd one of the highest run rates in 71 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:09,160 Speaker 2: his tenure as the Panthers head coach. And getting Hunt 72 00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:11,200 Speaker 2: back with Rico dad On Chewba Hubbard, who were both 73 00:03:11,200 --> 00:03:13,560 Speaker 2: effective in that first matchup against the Rams, I think 74 00:03:13,600 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 2: they're going to do the same thing here. Ryce Done 75 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 2: can make a couple of plays with t Mac with 76 00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:20,119 Speaker 2: Jalen Cocher against a Rams secondary that I do think 77 00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:22,760 Speaker 2: is a little suspect if the pass rush doesn't get home. 78 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:25,040 Speaker 2: That's why I'm taking the Panthers. So give me Panthers 79 00:03:25,120 --> 00:03:26,600 Speaker 2: at home plus ten and a half. 80 00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:30,520 Speaker 1: Cool story, bro, I'm taking the Rams on the other 81 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:33,359 Speaker 1: side because this is the playoffs and Sean McVay has 82 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:36,680 Speaker 1: had some time to marinate about that loss, and I 83 00:03:36,760 --> 00:03:39,480 Speaker 1: think this is going to be an ass whooping' that's 84 00:03:39,480 --> 00:03:41,320 Speaker 1: what I think it's going to be. I think you're 85 00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 1: talking about the superior coach and Sean McVay and no 86 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:45,840 Speaker 1: shots that can out at. 87 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:47,720 Speaker 2: Well. 88 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:51,360 Speaker 1: I'm sorry, I just blanked out there for a second. Yes, 89 00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:54,120 Speaker 1: Dave Canallos. Why do I do There's so many coaches 90 00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:56,240 Speaker 1: that got fired this week, and my head is fir. 91 00:03:58,120 --> 00:04:00,240 Speaker 1: I was like, wait a minute, what canalllys? Yes, yes, 92 00:04:00,320 --> 00:04:03,880 Speaker 1: Dave Canallas. Anyway, Dave Canallis still has a job, and 93 00:04:04,160 --> 00:04:06,120 Speaker 1: he'll still have a job after this game. He deserves it. 94 00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:10,960 Speaker 1: But I'm gonna tell you this, Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford, 95 00:04:11,480 --> 00:04:14,440 Speaker 1: DeVante Adams back playing. This group knows what to do. 96 00:04:14,640 --> 00:04:16,520 Speaker 1: This is the playoffs. Carolina Panthers have no idea what 97 00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:19,359 Speaker 1: to do with the playoffs. Okay, zero none. This group 98 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:21,600 Speaker 1: is not battle tested. They have no idea what's going on. 99 00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:24,640 Speaker 1: Everything Andrew says statistically is right, except the only difference 100 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:26,599 Speaker 1: is this is the playoffs now, and this is where 101 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:28,800 Speaker 1: the big boys play, and the big boys are gonna 102 00:04:28,800 --> 00:04:32,679 Speaker 1: show up here. Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford, this entire group here, 103 00:04:33,120 --> 00:04:37,200 Speaker 1: they are going to run the football pretty effectively. Puka Akua. 104 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:40,040 Speaker 1: I don't think this defense has an answer for him, period, 105 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:43,200 Speaker 1: end of story. And I'm looking at Matthew Stafford here 106 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:46,120 Speaker 1: being kind of an underdog in these playoffs. I'm not 107 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:48,080 Speaker 1: in this game, but all of a sudden, this guy 108 00:04:48,080 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 1: had a fantastic season on MVP, all this stuff, all 109 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:53,840 Speaker 1: the press clippings. Maybe it's the last ride. Look, there's 110 00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:55,280 Speaker 1: gonna be a lot of emotion in this run for 111 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 1: the Rams because they are kind of coming up the 112 00:04:58,080 --> 00:04:59,800 Speaker 1: hill instead of being at the top of it, which 113 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:02,000 Speaker 1: I think think is exactly where Sean McVay wants them 114 00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:03,840 Speaker 1: to be at this stage. I think that makes them 115 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:07,960 Speaker 1: very dangerous Carolina Panthers. Look, Andrews said a lot of 116 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:11,640 Speaker 1: smart things, but the difference is this is not about 117 00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:14,680 Speaker 1: smart or stupid. This is about playoff football and who's 118 00:05:14,720 --> 00:05:16,800 Speaker 1: the superior team. And I do think that defense gets 119 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:19,680 Speaker 1: home and that pass rush gets home. I would be shocked. Actually, 120 00:05:19,839 --> 00:05:22,040 Speaker 1: if Bryce Young finishes this game. I think it's we 121 00:05:22,120 --> 00:05:24,520 Speaker 1: have a ton of pressure on him. I think Jared 122 00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:27,159 Speaker 1: versus company are gonna go after him. They're gonna hit 123 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:30,479 Speaker 1: him often and early, and I think that at some 124 00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 1: point you might even see the red rifle in this game. 125 00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:35,400 Speaker 1: That's what I'm predicting in this one. So give me 126 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:39,160 Speaker 1: a two touchdown victory for the Rams in a game 127 00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 1: that is over by late in the third quarter and 128 00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:44,320 Speaker 1: we're just coasting through the fourth. Now does that scare 129 00:05:44,320 --> 00:05:46,040 Speaker 1: me for a back toor cover. Sure it does, but 130 00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:48,480 Speaker 1: not with Andy Dalton playing quarterbacks. So I'm pretty good there. 131 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:50,240 Speaker 1: All right, let's get to the next one here. Since 132 00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:52,479 Speaker 1: Andrew and I continue to be on the same page 133 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:54,960 Speaker 1: on some other things, let's see if we can get 134 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 1: on the same page on some other stuff here. Let's 135 00:05:57,760 --> 00:06:00,839 Speaker 1: talk about the Houston Texans and this game against Pittsburgh. 136 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:03,680 Speaker 2: I'm taking the Texans laying the points on the road 137 00:06:03,680 --> 00:06:06,599 Speaker 2: against Pittsburgh. If you guys read my betting primers this week, 138 00:06:06,640 --> 00:06:10,120 Speaker 2: this is the only road team that I like this 139 00:06:10,200 --> 00:06:13,360 Speaker 2: week in terms of outright to win and to cover 140 00:06:13,480 --> 00:06:16,799 Speaker 2: the spread. And that's because there's one elite unit playing 141 00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:19,400 Speaker 2: in this game, and it's the Texans defense, and that's 142 00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:22,360 Speaker 2: the only where I can put confidence. Every time we've 143 00:06:22,360 --> 00:06:25,039 Speaker 2: talked about the Pittsburgh Steelers this season, it's been, well, 144 00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:28,680 Speaker 2: what's my confidence level? With the Steelers even last week 145 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:30,919 Speaker 2: it was like, yeah, they should probably win, Like this 146 00:06:31,000 --> 00:06:32,120 Speaker 2: is the probably the bet you want to make. And 147 00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:34,600 Speaker 2: you were right about the Pittsburgh Steels on the upset 148 00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:37,360 Speaker 2: special last week against the World Ravens. But you even 149 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:40,320 Speaker 2: admitted that this isn't like a high confident bed. It's 150 00:06:40,400 --> 00:06:44,360 Speaker 2: just hey, Mike Tomlin, underdog at home, let's roll against 151 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:47,360 Speaker 2: the Ravens. Okay, sounds good. But for me, I think 152 00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:51,400 Speaker 2: that this Texans team, winners of nine straight games. Yes, 153 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:55,280 Speaker 2: the Steelers Monday Night football, Mike Toma never loses, the 154 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:57,640 Speaker 2: Steelers at home, never lose, see your Strouds own two 155 00:06:57,680 --> 00:06:59,880 Speaker 2: on the road in the playoffs. Many of those things 156 00:06:59,920 --> 00:07:03,560 Speaker 2: are true. They've also not covered six straight postseason games. 157 00:07:03,880 --> 00:07:07,000 Speaker 2: Mike Tomlin gets this far and then this is where 158 00:07:07,040 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 2: he lets up and doesn't deliver. So I'm going to 159 00:07:10,200 --> 00:07:14,200 Speaker 2: chase that particular trend and ride the Texans elite defense, 160 00:07:14,480 --> 00:07:16,640 Speaker 2: defense travels on the road. I think that this is 161 00:07:16,680 --> 00:07:19,360 Speaker 2: a lower scoring game, and that's not a hot take. 162 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:20,880 Speaker 2: You just look at the total thirty nine and a 163 00:07:20,920 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 2: half points. They're not expecting points, and I think that 164 00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:26,160 Speaker 2: the Texans can win a grind out fest here. The 165 00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 2: Steelers defense I think at times is overrated, especially in 166 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:31,320 Speaker 2: the backhand. I mean, look, they had a chance to 167 00:07:31,320 --> 00:07:33,480 Speaker 2: put things away against the Ravens and then Dave Flowers 168 00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:36,880 Speaker 2: is running around wide open in the secondary for big plays. 169 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:39,480 Speaker 2: Nico Collins should be one hundred percent healthy. He didn't 170 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:41,520 Speaker 2: even play at all in Week eighteen, so I think 171 00:07:41,560 --> 00:07:42,800 Speaker 2: he's gonna be ready to go. I don't think there's 172 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:45,480 Speaker 2: anyone that can match up with him in that Steelers defense. 173 00:07:45,560 --> 00:07:48,600 Speaker 2: Ken Joey Porter Junior. Maybe I'm gonna take Nico Collins 174 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:51,239 Speaker 2: in that particular matchup. So I think that the Texans 175 00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:54,000 Speaker 2: can make enough plays on offense to get enough points, 176 00:07:54,080 --> 00:07:56,560 Speaker 2: and the Steelers offense, I'm not a believer, even with 177 00:07:56,640 --> 00:07:59,280 Speaker 2: DK Mecf back. So I like the Texans here to 178 00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 2: cover win a tight, close game on Monday Night Football 179 00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:05,280 Speaker 2: and be the only team on the road that wins outright, 180 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:07,800 Speaker 2: this excuse me that covers a spread this week. 181 00:08:08,360 --> 00:08:10,560 Speaker 1: All Right, I'm glad you mentioned Nico Collins in that 182 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:13,640 Speaker 1: rant too, because I'm also in on Nico Collins this week. 183 00:08:13,880 --> 00:08:15,520 Speaker 1: And I'm also in with that trend that you put 184 00:08:15,520 --> 00:08:17,239 Speaker 1: out there, which is, you know, Mike tom Win. Regular 185 00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:19,240 Speaker 1: seasons one thing. But this is the point of year 186 00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:22,000 Speaker 1: where Mike tom Win turns into Marvin Lewis. You see, 187 00:08:22,080 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 1: this is what happens where he doesn't win playoff games anymore. Okay, 188 00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:28,760 Speaker 1: they just don't. And this Houston Texans defense is ferocious. Okay, 189 00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:31,200 Speaker 1: I know they've let some lesser teams hang in there. 190 00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:33,480 Speaker 1: And I know Aaron Rodgers, a crafty old veteran. We 191 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:36,000 Speaker 1: could talk about all this. Exactly what I said was 192 00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 1: going to happen. Happened last week. Did it knock? Yes, 193 00:08:39,400 --> 00:08:43,040 Speaker 1: it did upset special. The Pittsburgh Steelers found a way 194 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:44,920 Speaker 1: to win a game they shouldn't and the Ravens found 195 00:08:44,960 --> 00:08:47,120 Speaker 1: a way to lose a game they shouldn't. And this 196 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:48,719 Speaker 1: week is going to be a very different thing. And 197 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:49,839 Speaker 1: I don't think it would have mattered. I think the 198 00:08:49,840 --> 00:08:51,760 Speaker 1: Houston Texas would have beaten anybody that they put in 199 00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:53,199 Speaker 1: front of him, even though it was a road game 200 00:08:53,240 --> 00:08:56,560 Speaker 1: for him. And I think that I agree with Andrew Erickson. 201 00:08:56,559 --> 00:09:00,000 Speaker 1: I think the Steelers defense is okay, not great. Of course, 202 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:02,560 Speaker 1: we have TJ. Wapback. He's a playmaking guy, big energy 203 00:09:02,559 --> 00:09:04,840 Speaker 1: boost for everybody. I also think there's a little bit 204 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:07,760 Speaker 1: of a letdown where that game last week felt like 205 00:09:07,800 --> 00:09:10,520 Speaker 1: a playoff game, big A division stuff, lots going on. 206 00:09:10,920 --> 00:09:14,000 Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin at the front there on the fifty yard line, 207 00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:17,920 Speaker 1: pounded on his chest, pounded on his chest. Good job, 208 00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:20,439 Speaker 1: you made the playoffs. That's your job. You got a 209 00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:24,680 Speaker 1: winning record, Good job, congratulations. Now go in a playoff game. 210 00:09:24,960 --> 00:09:26,679 Speaker 1: I don't think you're capable of that right now, Not 211 00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:28,800 Speaker 1: with the way this team is constructed. Not with the 212 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:31,280 Speaker 1: limitations of an Arthur Smith offense too, because to me, 213 00:09:31,640 --> 00:09:35,000 Speaker 1: it's the predictability of the Arthur Smith offense against the 214 00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:38,600 Speaker 1: ferociousness of that Texans defense that is the biggest mismatch 215 00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:42,240 Speaker 1: and the biggest value here in this game where I 216 00:09:42,280 --> 00:09:44,400 Speaker 1: agree with Andrew ericson, I think the Texans carry this. 217 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:46,720 Speaker 1: So we are in agreement there for that one. Let's 218 00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:49,480 Speaker 1: get to the next game on your list, Andrew Erickson, 219 00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:53,160 Speaker 1: our New England Patriots hosting the Los Angeles Chargers. 220 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:56,080 Speaker 2: I don't want to lay the points here with the 221 00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:58,440 Speaker 2: Patriots at three and a half. I don't like that 222 00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:00,959 Speaker 2: line because I think that this is going to ultimately 223 00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:02,880 Speaker 2: be a field goal game, and if it is a 224 00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:05,000 Speaker 2: field goal game, Patriots win by three, then the Chargers 225 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:06,959 Speaker 2: technically cover, and but I don't want to bet it 226 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:10,080 Speaker 2: on the Chargers, so I like betting the total in 227 00:10:10,120 --> 00:10:12,960 Speaker 2: this game. I think this game flies under forty six 228 00:10:13,000 --> 00:10:15,720 Speaker 2: and a half points. When you look at the Patriots schedule, 229 00:10:16,160 --> 00:10:19,079 Speaker 2: We've all talked about it, cupcake schedule, easiest schedule in 230 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:20,600 Speaker 2: NFL history, et cetera, et cetera. 231 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:22,360 Speaker 1: I do love fakecakes though. 232 00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:26,920 Speaker 2: Just for the record, cupcakes are deleite, elite Patriot bakery items. 233 00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:28,920 Speaker 1: Especially because you can have a different flavor, especially like 234 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:30,480 Speaker 1: the smaller ones too, because then you can just take 235 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:33,360 Speaker 1: a bunch of different flavors. Are that one giant piece 236 00:10:33,400 --> 00:10:33,720 Speaker 1: of cake? 237 00:10:34,280 --> 00:10:37,120 Speaker 2: Are you a I'm going to cut off the bottom 238 00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:38,720 Speaker 2: and put it on top and eat it like, oh yeah, 239 00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:39,320 Speaker 2: in which cupcake? 240 00:10:39,320 --> 00:10:39,480 Speaker 1: Bert? 241 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:42,120 Speaker 2: Okay, that is the optimal way to eat a cupcake. 242 00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:44,600 Speaker 1: That's why we're friends. Andrew, come on right, fire, big, 243 00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:46,280 Speaker 1: fire big. These are important things. 244 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:49,520 Speaker 2: So with the Patriots schedule, they have faced one defense 245 00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:52,079 Speaker 2: this season inside the top ten in terms of DVA 246 00:10:52,559 --> 00:10:56,040 Speaker 2: or an EPA per play allowed. It was the Cleveland Browns. 247 00:10:56,320 --> 00:10:59,680 Speaker 2: I think that the Patriots offense might struggle a bit 248 00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:02,360 Speaker 2: in this particular game against the Chargers defense I think 249 00:11:02,440 --> 00:11:05,440 Speaker 2: is legitimately a top five unit fifth fewest yards allowed 250 00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:08,840 Speaker 2: per game this season, eighthest points allowed per game last 251 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:12,079 Speaker 2: week against the Denver Broncos, They're playing their backups, the 252 00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:15,120 Speaker 2: Chargers rested most of their starters. The Denver Broncos offense 253 00:11:15,360 --> 00:11:17,520 Speaker 2: didn't move the ball very effectively. It took really like 254 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:19,800 Speaker 2: a pick six from Trey Lance for the Broncos to 255 00:11:19,880 --> 00:11:23,000 Speaker 2: cover their massive spread of I think it was like 256 00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:25,920 Speaker 2: twelve and a half or thirteen points. So I think 257 00:11:25,920 --> 00:11:28,720 Speaker 2: that this is a real challenge for Drake May and company. Again, 258 00:11:28,800 --> 00:11:30,880 Speaker 2: not one that I don't think they can overcome. Drake 259 00:11:30,920 --> 00:11:34,080 Speaker 2: May is in the MVP conversation for a reason, but 260 00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:36,600 Speaker 2: I think it's not gonna be easy, as he's not 261 00:11:36,679 --> 00:11:38,840 Speaker 2: playing in the fourth quarter against the Jets and Dolphins 262 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:42,560 Speaker 2: type of games where make things look super super easy. 263 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:45,360 Speaker 2: Against some of these terrible AFC East opponents, especially the Chargers. 264 00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:47,320 Speaker 2: One of the best defense in the NFL this year 265 00:11:47,440 --> 00:11:49,440 Speaker 2: against the deep ball, and we know that's where Drake 266 00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:52,800 Speaker 2: May has an absolute elite has been throwing the ball downfield. 267 00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 2: So I think this game goes under the total from 268 00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:58,199 Speaker 2: the Patriots perspective and from the Chargers, I don't need 269 00:11:58,200 --> 00:12:00,480 Speaker 2: to convince anyone that they have issues on offense when 270 00:12:00,520 --> 00:12:02,720 Speaker 2: it comes to the offensive line continues to be a 271 00:12:02,760 --> 00:12:05,040 Speaker 2: mess since they lost the tackles in the middle of 272 00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 2: the season. So I think with the Patriots defense getting healthier, 273 00:12:08,400 --> 00:12:11,400 Speaker 2: getting Milton Williams back, getting Robert Splaine back, I think 274 00:12:11,400 --> 00:12:14,840 Speaker 2: they can turn the Chargers into a have to throw 275 00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:16,880 Speaker 2: the football. They're not gonna be run it all effective 276 00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:19,640 Speaker 2: because Patriots run defense hasn't been good since they've had 277 00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:22,280 Speaker 2: all these injuries. With all those guys back, they are 278 00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:24,040 Speaker 2: going to stop the run like they were at the 279 00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:26,199 Speaker 2: start of the year when the stat was no one 280 00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:28,600 Speaker 2: has rushed for fifty yards against his Patriots to run defense. 281 00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:32,000 Speaker 2: Nobody can run on this defense. And since Milton Williams 282 00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:34,720 Speaker 2: has missed so this is from Jared Smallop five games 283 00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:36,880 Speaker 2: without Milton Williams the season, Patriots have allowed one hundred 284 00:12:36,880 --> 00:12:39,120 Speaker 2: and twenty seven rushing yards per game five point two 285 00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 2: yards per carry to start the year. Twelve games with 286 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:44,640 Speaker 2: Milton Williams, that number was fifty six point three. So 287 00:12:44,800 --> 00:12:46,240 Speaker 2: I think the run defense is going to show up 288 00:12:46,240 --> 00:12:48,680 Speaker 2: again here make it a drop back passing game for 289 00:12:48,720 --> 00:12:52,079 Speaker 2: the Chargers, and I think that invites turnovers for Justin Herbert, 290 00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:54,280 Speaker 2: makes it tougher for them to score. And from a 291 00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:57,000 Speaker 2: trend's perspective, Patriot's home games have been going over at 292 00:12:57,000 --> 00:12:59,839 Speaker 2: a really high rate, but Chargers road games. This is 293 00:12:59,880 --> 00:13:03,400 Speaker 2: the key point here. Under Jim Harbaugh, only the Chiefs 294 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:06,600 Speaker 2: have a lower total hit rate towards the over on 295 00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:09,280 Speaker 2: the road since the start of last year six eleven 296 00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:12,400 Speaker 2: and one that's thirty five percent, and Chargers when they 297 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:14,960 Speaker 2: play on the East Coast, most of their games have 298 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:17,760 Speaker 2: also gone under the total three and six over under 299 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:20,679 Speaker 2: under forty points per game. They have had three games 300 00:13:20,760 --> 00:13:23,200 Speaker 2: exceed forty six and a half points forty seven, forty 301 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:25,840 Speaker 2: seven and fifty six. So I think that this game 302 00:13:25,880 --> 00:13:28,680 Speaker 2: goes well under the total. It's a nail bier twenty 303 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:30,760 Speaker 2: to seventeen, twenty three to twenty, but I think the 304 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:32,760 Speaker 2: Patriots little bit come out on top. Still not sure 305 00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:33,440 Speaker 2: if they cover or not. 306 00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:36,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, I didn't have this pick in my top five picks. 307 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:39,520 Speaker 1: I stayed away from this game. I just I feel 308 00:13:39,559 --> 00:13:42,240 Speaker 1: like what I said on Monday is still true, which 309 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:44,360 Speaker 1: is the Patriots are in control of this game. I'm 310 00:13:44,400 --> 00:13:46,800 Speaker 1: never worried about the Patriots losing this game, but I'm 311 00:13:46,800 --> 00:13:49,240 Speaker 1: also not confident about them pulling away in this game either. 312 00:13:49,280 --> 00:13:50,959 Speaker 1: It feels like they're going to control the narrative of 313 00:13:50,960 --> 00:13:53,960 Speaker 1: this football game. But you bring up the Williams point, 314 00:13:54,000 --> 00:13:55,920 Speaker 1: that's a great win to his return, very important, and 315 00:13:55,920 --> 00:13:58,559 Speaker 1: that pivot to him this offseason turned out to be 316 00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:00,600 Speaker 1: huge because they didn't get Tea Higgins and they said, Okay, 317 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:03,040 Speaker 1: we'll spend the money somewhere else. I bet t Higgins 318 00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:04,960 Speaker 1: wishes that he had signed with the Patriots. Probably wouldn't 319 00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:06,960 Speaker 1: been a good spot for him. Wait, Drake May's played, 320 00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:09,480 Speaker 1: that would have been a really nice landing spot. But 321 00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:12,000 Speaker 1: Diggs has been, dare I say, a leader, although he 322 00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:15,120 Speaker 1: has his own issues, so we'll see how long he 323 00:14:15,160 --> 00:14:18,360 Speaker 1: sticks around. But the other point that I would make 324 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:19,640 Speaker 1: in this game, which is the same one too, that 325 00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:21,600 Speaker 1: I want to bring up again that you know spoiler 326 00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:24,160 Speaker 1: alert that San fran game when teams have to travel 327 00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:28,040 Speaker 1: and they're out of sync with their body clocks. This 328 00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:29,960 Speaker 1: is a real thing. I sent it to you. I 329 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:32,200 Speaker 1: don't know if you saw this. I saw it on Instagram. 330 00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:33,960 Speaker 1: Somebody did a whole study thing on this and they 331 00:14:33,960 --> 00:14:36,720 Speaker 1: made a reel about it and how difficult it is 332 00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:38,680 Speaker 1: for the teams when they have to travel over the 333 00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:41,479 Speaker 1: time zones. Now, it's one thing when everybody travels internationally, 334 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:43,520 Speaker 1: that's one thing, But when a team's going east to 335 00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:44,920 Speaker 1: west or west to east, it's some one thing for 336 00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:46,440 Speaker 1: as an hour when it's a three hour difference. Their 337 00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:49,680 Speaker 1: body clocks are all different. So the time in which 338 00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:51,880 Speaker 1: some of these games are happening are very important too, 339 00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:54,760 Speaker 1: especially an early one, which is what's going to happen 340 00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:57,800 Speaker 1: here with the Eagles. So let's keep that in mind 341 00:14:57,840 --> 00:14:59,440 Speaker 1: too as we look at some of these games. For me, 342 00:14:59,520 --> 00:15:03,120 Speaker 1: my number three pick here Bears. I said it on 343 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:05,440 Speaker 1: Monday and I'm gonna say it again. Best thing that 344 00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:07,880 Speaker 1: happened to the Bears was to lose. Losing to the 345 00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:10,800 Speaker 1: Lions was good. Don't believe the hype. Don't believe you're 346 00:15:10,800 --> 00:15:13,080 Speaker 1: that good yet, because you're not. You are the best 347 00:15:13,120 --> 00:15:15,800 Speaker 1: of what was in that division. You are still a 348 00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:18,160 Speaker 1: ways away from all the teams in the NFC West. 349 00:15:18,480 --> 00:15:19,960 Speaker 1: Just keep that in mind. I want to credit to 350 00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:22,400 Speaker 1: Caleb Williams, who I'm always tough on he did play 351 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:24,760 Speaker 1: better down the stretch. Ben Johnson's done a very good 352 00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:26,920 Speaker 1: job with this team. But I think Ben Johnson and company, 353 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:31,240 Speaker 1: because they lost that last game, was able to drive home. Hey, look, 354 00:15:31,800 --> 00:15:33,320 Speaker 1: you know Green Bay can come in there and kick 355 00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:36,120 Speaker 1: our ass. Okay, don't think that you're unbeatable, don't think 356 00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:39,480 Speaker 1: that you're special yet, and it actually sticks, Whereas if 357 00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:41,680 Speaker 1: I think they beat the Lions, it's gonna make that 358 00:15:41,760 --> 00:15:44,720 Speaker 1: hard to stick during practice all week. There's an overconfidence 359 00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:46,280 Speaker 1: I think they'd be coming into this game with I 360 00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:48,160 Speaker 1: think the best thing that happened to them was to lose, 361 00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:50,120 Speaker 1: and now they're going into this game kind of like 362 00:15:50,160 --> 00:15:51,920 Speaker 1: a fresh season with a fresh start where they've got 363 00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:54,120 Speaker 1: to prove themselves again, and I think that's where the 364 00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:56,000 Speaker 1: Bears play the best. So I'll take the Bears on that. 365 00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:58,960 Speaker 1: Plus one also reminder not just to we live here 366 00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:02,240 Speaker 1: obviously on Saturday, but we're also always live on our 367 00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:04,080 Speaker 1: discord where we want you to hang out with us. 368 00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:07,760 Speaker 1: So head over to the discord channel again, that is 369 00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:10,560 Speaker 1: bettingpros dot Com slash Chat. It's free, it's fun, and 370 00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:13,960 Speaker 1: there's an opportunity for you to get expert advice from 371 00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:16,520 Speaker 1: handicappers like Matt Perrault over there. So, whether it's NBA 372 00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:20,240 Speaker 1: college hoops, NFL playoffs, NHL, it's all happening on our 373 00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:23,960 Speaker 1: discord bettingpros dot com slash chat. All right, next up here, 374 00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:26,680 Speaker 1: Andrew Ericsson, is a game we both like. We were 375 00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:29,200 Speaker 1: both in on Monday, we got here a Thursday. We're 376 00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:32,120 Speaker 1: both still in it. We both like the Jaguars plus 377 00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:35,200 Speaker 1: one and a half for the upset. Let's go, let's 378 00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:36,720 Speaker 1: talk about it. I like them on the money line, 379 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:38,600 Speaker 1: but more than that, the one and a half is 380 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:41,960 Speaker 1: probably the easier bet here to make. So Andrew, I've 381 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:44,560 Speaker 1: always said here it's got to be Josh Allen putting 382 00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:46,760 Speaker 1: this team on his back over and over again. I'm 383 00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:50,920 Speaker 1: gonna reiterate the farewell, you know, last day of high 384 00:16:50,960 --> 00:16:53,440 Speaker 1: school stuff going on in the Buffalo Stadium in week eighteen. 385 00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:55,640 Speaker 1: I think is very emotional, and I think it's a 386 00:16:55,680 --> 00:16:58,440 Speaker 1: little confusing emotionally. Then ramp yourself up to play another 387 00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:01,880 Speaker 1: game after that. I don't like this Bills team all year. 388 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:04,600 Speaker 1: I've called them soft. I think the defense is very beatable. 389 00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:06,240 Speaker 1: I think you can run all over them, and I 390 00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:08,520 Speaker 1: think that's exactly what Liam Cohen is going to do. 391 00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 1: And the fact that the Jags, with the way this 392 00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:12,960 Speaker 1: defense is played down the stretch our underdogs at home 393 00:17:13,840 --> 00:17:16,440 Speaker 1: is ridiculous. Andrew, let you take it from there. 394 00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:19,000 Speaker 2: I agree with all the points you made. I think 395 00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:21,879 Speaker 2: that this is one of the tougher matchups for the 396 00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:24,639 Speaker 2: Bills to draw in the first round of the playoffs 397 00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:27,520 Speaker 2: because the Jacksonville Jaguars they took the crown as the 398 00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:30,040 Speaker 2: number one run defense. This is strength on strength. We 399 00:17:30,080 --> 00:17:33,280 Speaker 2: have the NFL's leading rusher going up against the number 400 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:36,160 Speaker 2: one run defense in the NFL with the Jacksonville Jaguars. 401 00:17:36,400 --> 00:17:39,679 Speaker 2: No running back hit seventy five rushing yards against the 402 00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:42,760 Speaker 2: jacksonvill Jaguars this season. James Cook his rushing prop it's 403 00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:44,280 Speaker 2: over seventy five rushing yards. You know one of my 404 00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:46,720 Speaker 2: favorite player props this week, Spoiler, it's gonna be James 405 00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:48,680 Speaker 2: Cook on the under Now. The last time I bet 406 00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:51,160 Speaker 2: that he rushed for like two hundred yards. So we'll 407 00:17:51,160 --> 00:17:52,200 Speaker 2: see how that shakes out. 408 00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:53,680 Speaker 1: For Is that against the Cleveland Browns? 409 00:17:54,280 --> 00:17:54,800 Speaker 2: I think so. 410 00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:55,520 Speaker 1: Yeah. 411 00:17:56,080 --> 00:17:58,400 Speaker 2: But it was one of those awhere, it was over quick. 412 00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:01,480 Speaker 2: It was like rip the band aid On. Okay, we're good, 413 00:18:01,880 --> 00:18:05,920 Speaker 2: but yeah, I would say that if the Jaguars can 414 00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:08,760 Speaker 2: slow down this Buffalo Bill's run game, whether it's between 415 00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:11,840 Speaker 2: James cook and Josh Allen and Force, oh, we're going 416 00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:15,160 Speaker 2: to make Delton King kaid On potentially one knee beat 417 00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:18,600 Speaker 2: us Khalil shakir Key Young Coleman gave Davis. Brandy Cooks 418 00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:21,040 Speaker 2: has become like an integral part of this Buffalo Bill's 419 00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:23,280 Speaker 2: passing game because they just haven't been able to rely 420 00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:26,200 Speaker 2: on any of these other wide receivers to step up. 421 00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:29,639 Speaker 2: So for those reasons, I think schematically the Jaguars have 422 00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:33,440 Speaker 2: an advantage when they play defensively. I think offensively Trevor Lawrence, 423 00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:36,000 Speaker 2: their run game can do whatever they want against This 424 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:38,360 Speaker 2: Bill's defense has been overrated all year long. They can't 425 00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:40,840 Speaker 2: stop the run. They're always injured. They lost one of 426 00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:43,040 Speaker 2: their starting quarterbacks, Maxwell Harrison. He's not going to play 427 00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:44,920 Speaker 2: in this game after he was playing Week eighteen for 428 00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:48,800 Speaker 2: who knows what reason. And the Jacksonville Jaguars have been 429 00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:51,160 Speaker 2: one of the best teams at home this season against 430 00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:53,920 Speaker 2: the spread seven and one against the spread eighty eight percent. 431 00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:55,880 Speaker 2: So I know when we talk about home field advantage. 432 00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:59,360 Speaker 2: It's usually Chicago or Pittsburgh or these cold weather stadiums, 433 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:02,360 Speaker 2: even Buffalo, but Jacksonville like that has been the home 434 00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:04,359 Speaker 2: to home field advantage this year, where they've got the 435 00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:07,160 Speaker 2: jacuzzis and pools in the in the in the stands 436 00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:09,320 Speaker 2: and the fans are having a great time, and I 437 00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:12,160 Speaker 2: think that matters here. So I like the Jaguars here 438 00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:13,800 Speaker 2: to get covered the plus one and a half, and 439 00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:17,160 Speaker 2: that's the safest approach here, just because again, betting against 440 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:19,719 Speaker 2: Josh Allen is never a thing I like to do 441 00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:22,160 Speaker 2: on an NFL Sunday. But there is also a chance 442 00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:24,800 Speaker 2: too that this isn't Josh Allen at one hundred percent. 443 00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:27,679 Speaker 2: He's been battling Alden foot injuries, and I think that 444 00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:31,680 Speaker 2: this line is just not factoring that in it all. 445 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:33,840 Speaker 2: This is like, oh, this is regular Josh Allen, Superman 446 00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:35,960 Speaker 2: Josh Allen, and maybe he is fine, maybe he is 447 00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:38,280 Speaker 2: one hundred percent healthy, but he takes a hit, a 448 00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:40,800 Speaker 2: lower body hit from Josh Heines Allen, the other Josh 449 00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:43,440 Speaker 2: Allen playing in this game. You know, maybe he isn't 450 00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:45,640 Speaker 2: going to be able to be Superman, and maybe he's 451 00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:48,040 Speaker 2: met his kryptonite. In the form of the Jacksonville Jaguars. 452 00:19:48,040 --> 00:19:49,640 Speaker 2: So I like Jacksonville here as well. 453 00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:52,959 Speaker 1: So James Cook was one hundred and seventeen yards against Cleveland, 454 00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:54,119 Speaker 1: which I think is one of the games where you 455 00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:56,640 Speaker 1: didn't like him. Memory serves what the two hundred yard 456 00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:59,400 Speaker 1: game was the Carolina Panthers. That was the one where 457 00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:01,720 Speaker 1: he ran the mind. So your Carolina Panthers by the 458 00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:05,040 Speaker 1: way court to game one, But I remember you not 459 00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:06,639 Speaker 1: liking him against Cleveland. You're like, this is gonna be 460 00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:09,359 Speaker 1: a tough matchup against Cleveland, and then and then we 461 00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:12,040 Speaker 1: were like, well it guts that you have two touchdowns on. 462 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:14,520 Speaker 2: It like this, this is one of the more exciting 463 00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:17,880 Speaker 2: that because it's strength on strengdy. Yeah, like matchups where 464 00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:21,280 Speaker 2: number one run defense against the NFL leading rusher in 465 00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:23,520 Speaker 2: James Cook. So look, I think it's going to be 466 00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:26,520 Speaker 2: a sweat regardless, because Jonathan Taylor came very close in 467 00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:29,080 Speaker 2: his two matchups against Jacksonville, he had over seventy yards. 468 00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:31,800 Speaker 2: So look, James Cook could finished with seventy rushing yards. Hey, 469 00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:34,280 Speaker 2: I'll still take that bet. Take the under. And if 470 00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:36,359 Speaker 2: James Cook actually think I want to pull this stat 471 00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:39,360 Speaker 2: here too, I pulled it when I was looking at 472 00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:43,240 Speaker 2: the James Cook rushing yards prop and correlation with when 473 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:46,639 Speaker 2: the Buffalo Bills cover the spread. So yeah, this is 474 00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:48,640 Speaker 2: what it is. So the Bills are nine to zero 475 00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:50,840 Speaker 2: when they rush for at least one hundred and fifty yards, 476 00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:53,000 Speaker 2: three and five straight up and against the spread when 477 00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:55,160 Speaker 2: they're held under one hundred and fifty rushing yards. 478 00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:58,159 Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, last one here before we get to 479 00:20:58,200 --> 00:20:59,959 Speaker 1: our favorite picks of the week in the upset special, 480 00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:03,159 Speaker 1: let's talk about the Philadelphia Eagles minus four and a 481 00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:06,200 Speaker 1: half against San Francisco. You and I are both on 482 00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:09,160 Speaker 1: the Eagles side of this football game. Once again, You've 483 00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:12,440 Speaker 1: got the team traveling three thousand miles, You've got the 484 00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:15,159 Speaker 1: earlier window. Yes, it's not a night game where you 485 00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 1: have a little bit more time, so it's four o'clock 486 00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:21,119 Speaker 1: here cold. I feel like the Eagles pulled down the 487 00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:23,280 Speaker 1: forty nine ers to their level. To me, that's what 488 00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:25,119 Speaker 1: it is. You've seen this started at three and a half, 489 00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:26,320 Speaker 1: and I said lock it at three and a half 490 00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:27,960 Speaker 1: because I think it's gonna move, and it did. I 491 00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:29,919 Speaker 1: think a lot of sharp people jumped on that because 492 00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:32,560 Speaker 1: they are still the rank defending champions. They are still 493 00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:34,480 Speaker 1: the team that has a home field advantage when a 494 00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:38,480 Speaker 1: lot of teams don't. And I think you know I'll 495 00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,640 Speaker 1: say it once, I'll say it again. San Francisco got 496 00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:44,240 Speaker 1: waid and measured and they were found wanting last week 497 00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:49,239 Speaker 1: by the Seattle defense. And this defense will show up 498 00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:51,560 Speaker 1: in this game. This crowd will show up in this game, 499 00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:54,359 Speaker 1: and I think they will do enough offensively like they 500 00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:56,480 Speaker 1: always do to eke out a victory. That's been the 501 00:21:56,480 --> 00:21:59,000 Speaker 1: way it goes. I don't love the Eagles after this week, 502 00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:01,760 Speaker 1: depending on what Matt they end up with, but I 503 00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:04,359 Speaker 1: will say this, I do like them this week against 504 00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:06,480 Speaker 1: the forty nine ers. Your thoughts on this one, because 505 00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:09,560 Speaker 1: you and I are in agreement again here on the program. 506 00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:12,800 Speaker 2: I I don't think you're giving enough credit to the Eagles, 507 00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:14,439 Speaker 2: to be honest, I think this is an ass whoopin 508 00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:15,520 Speaker 2: I know everyone talks. 509 00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:17,680 Speaker 1: About the Rams again. 510 00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:19,760 Speaker 2: The Rams are gonna be ass whooping the Carolina Panthers. 511 00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:21,520 Speaker 2: I think it's the Eagles here. I think this is 512 00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:23,720 Speaker 2: a statement game where they say, oh, yeah, no, we 513 00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:25,880 Speaker 2: won the Super Bowl last year. We are the ring 514 00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:29,040 Speaker 2: super Bowl champions and the forty nine ers talking about 515 00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:32,480 Speaker 2: walking into a game wounded it. Stern William's even gonna 516 00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:33,080 Speaker 2: play in this game. 517 00:22:33,440 --> 00:22:36,760 Speaker 1: We've seen it. Don't forget we've seen. 518 00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:39,640 Speaker 2: It's not enough. Why can't the Eagles win by a touchdown? 519 00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:42,440 Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts at home is five and oh straight up 520 00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:45,320 Speaker 2: in the playoffs, four and one against the spread. Average 521 00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:48,440 Speaker 2: margin of victory for Jalen Hurts is twenty one points. 522 00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:52,640 Speaker 2: In these playoff games the Eagles have smoked, including Kyle Shanahan. 523 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:55,280 Speaker 2: Now I know in that particular game they had quarterback injuries, 524 00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:58,200 Speaker 2: but even before they had those injuries, mean the Eagles 525 00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:01,480 Speaker 2: were favored and they took carab busin covering a massive spread. 526 00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:04,399 Speaker 2: So the rhetoric last week with the forty nine ers 527 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:07,200 Speaker 2: against the Seahawks was this is our all in game 528 00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:09,960 Speaker 2: for San Francisco. We win this game, we get the bye, 529 00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:12,600 Speaker 2: we have home field advantage throughout to the super Bowl. 530 00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:14,800 Speaker 2: And they lost that game and I think they got 531 00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:18,280 Speaker 2: dominated thirteen to three, did not capture the domination from 532 00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:20,600 Speaker 2: the Seattle Seahawks in that game against d N, San 533 00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:24,000 Speaker 2: Francisco couldn't do anything. And that's what happens. You don't 534 00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:26,199 Speaker 2: have Trent Williams and the fact that they're going to 535 00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:29,200 Speaker 2: quote unquote evaluate whether he can play this week suggests 536 00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:31,320 Speaker 2: to me even if he's out there, he's not one 537 00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:33,679 Speaker 2: hundred percent. I kind of feel like the forty nine 538 00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:36,280 Speaker 2: Ers are just kind of runn out of gas, right. Shanahan, 539 00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:38,919 Speaker 2: to his credit, has done an excellent job. He should 540 00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:41,240 Speaker 2: be in the Coach of the Year conversation for sure 541 00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:43,159 Speaker 2: because of how many injuries they've had to overcome. But 542 00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:46,600 Speaker 2: eventually you just run out of gas, right, and they 543 00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:49,280 Speaker 2: have more linebacker injuries that are stacking up. I think 544 00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:51,159 Speaker 2: the Eagles can have their way on both sides of 545 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:53,399 Speaker 2: the football here. Offensively, I think they can move the 546 00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:56,800 Speaker 2: ball easily on the forty nineers defense, and defensively, I mean, 547 00:23:56,920 --> 00:23:59,720 Speaker 2: Seattle's the top tier defense. The Philadelphia Eagles at home 548 00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:02,600 Speaker 2: after being rested all of last week and Week eighteen, 549 00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:07,080 Speaker 2: rock Perty, Ricky Pearsol's banged up, No Trent Williams. Potentially 550 00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:10,159 Speaker 2: on the Eagle side, they're getting Lane Johnson back like 551 00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:13,040 Speaker 2: he is the guy that makes offense work huge. So 552 00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:15,240 Speaker 2: when I'm giving you all these points here and then 553 00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:16,600 Speaker 2: I look at the lines, like all four and a half, 554 00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:18,800 Speaker 2: why why are the four and. 555 00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:21,040 Speaker 1: A half with a reminder of a couple of years 556 00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:23,120 Speaker 1: ago when they got beat at home by the forty 557 00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:25,359 Speaker 1: nine ers. You for your call, you know, and I 558 00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:27,680 Speaker 1: think that sticks in your crawl a little bit, you know, like, hey, 559 00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:30,639 Speaker 1: it's again. You'd not taken them for granted, You're not, 560 00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:32,879 Speaker 1: you know, you know Perdy can make plays, you know, 561 00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:35,800 Speaker 1: McCaffrey special. You know, I'm still not sold on a 562 00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:38,800 Speaker 1: healthy Kittle is after that ankle spring, which I believe 563 00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:40,480 Speaker 1: to be a high ankle that nobody wants to say, 564 00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:42,920 Speaker 1: but your one hundred percent right that Lane Johnson returns 565 00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:45,080 Speaker 1: is absolutely huge for this run game. All right, let's 566 00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:47,240 Speaker 1: talk about our best bets of the week, and of 567 00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:49,800 Speaker 1: course we are brought to you by hard Rock Bet, 568 00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:53,720 Speaker 1: Florida's only sports book officially there partner of Florida teams 569 00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:55,480 Speaker 1: like the Jags, the Bucks, the Heat, the Magic and 570 00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:58,480 Speaker 1: the Panthers, and playoffs kick off this weekend for the NFL. 571 00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:02,560 Speaker 1: It's time to turn that game day into payday. So 572 00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:05,080 Speaker 1: if you're looking at the grid, iimon, if you're looking 573 00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:07,320 Speaker 1: at the hardwood, whatever it might be, you can parlay 574 00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:09,440 Speaker 1: some things together from the different sports or just stick 575 00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:11,199 Speaker 1: with the NFL. That's what you want to do. And 576 00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:12,480 Speaker 1: of course when you bet five bucks, you get one 577 00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:14,640 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty and bonus bets. Win your first bet 578 00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:17,240 Speaker 1: hits plus your winnings only at hard Rock Bet payble 579 00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:19,040 Speaker 1: and bonus bets not a cash offer offered by the 580 00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:21,439 Speaker 1: Seminal Tribe of Florida and Florida offered by the Seminal 581 00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:24,040 Speaker 1: hard Rock Digital LLC in other states must be twenty 582 00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:28,600 Speaker 1: one plus in physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, 583 00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:31,800 Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. Play terms of conditions apply. 584 00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:34,119 Speaker 1: Concerned about gambling in Florida, call one eight three to 585 00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:36,720 Speaker 1: three play wise. In Indiana, if you are someone you 586 00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:38,719 Speaker 1: know as a gambling problem wants help, called one eight 587 00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:41,760 Speaker 1: hundred and nine with it gambling problem called one hundred gambler. 588 00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:45,359 Speaker 1: In Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. 589 00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:49,560 Speaker 1: So Erickson, I'm gonna make this easy. My upset special 590 00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:52,600 Speaker 1: which five in a row? I want a heater for 591 00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:56,160 Speaker 1: upset specials. Jacksonville Jaguars money line at home not getting 592 00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:58,760 Speaker 1: the respect there do minus one oh six. That is 593 00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:01,600 Speaker 1: my favorite bet of the week. Andrew Erickson, what is 594 00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:04,400 Speaker 1: your favorite bet for Super Wildcard weekend? 595 00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:07,600 Speaker 2: Double downing on my hard Rock Best Bet of the Week, 596 00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:09,800 Speaker 2: I talked about all the Fantasy Pros Prediction show, so 597 00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:11,600 Speaker 2: I have to run it back here on the Betting 598 00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:15,480 Speaker 2: Pros program. Philadelphia Eagles laying minus four and a half 599 00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:18,040 Speaker 2: at home against the forty nine Ers, who I think 600 00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:21,680 Speaker 2: are just so banged up defensively offensively, I think they're 601 00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:23,960 Speaker 2: just out of steam right here and drawing a Philadelphia 602 00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:26,280 Speaker 2: Eagles that rested a lot of its starters in week 603 00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:28,840 Speaker 2: week eighteen, I think this is where the Eagles get 604 00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:31,000 Speaker 2: a chance to get hot here and try to make 605 00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:34,280 Speaker 2: a run at a repeat Super Bowl championship. Jalen hurts 606 00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:36,200 Speaker 2: five and oh straight up in the playoffs at home 607 00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:38,520 Speaker 2: four and one against the spread. Average margin of victory 608 00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:42,640 Speaker 2: twenty one points, lowest margin of victory six points, so 609 00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:45,240 Speaker 2: he's beaten everyone at home in the playoffs by at 610 00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:47,800 Speaker 2: least six points. Four and a half is not big enough. 611 00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:49,360 Speaker 2: I think the Eagles went by a touchdown or more. 612 00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:52,159 Speaker 2: So give me Philadelphia minus four and a half, and if. 613 00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:54,160 Speaker 1: You take our two favorite bets of wild Card Weekend. 614 00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:56,720 Speaker 1: Put them together, you get a parlay of plus two 615 00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:58,840 Speaker 1: seventy one, almost three to one in your money, and 616 00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:00,760 Speaker 1: of course that's a bet you can make over in 617 00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:03,680 Speaker 1: hard Rock Bets. So download the app now again. It's 618 00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:08,600 Speaker 1: in Florida, Ohio, New Jersey, Arizona, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, Colorado, 619 00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:11,439 Speaker 1: and Michigan's coming soon to more states could be yours. 620 00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:14,240 Speaker 1: But of course, no matter when you're listening, make sure 621 00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:15,920 Speaker 1: you open up the app too and check out the 622 00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:18,160 Speaker 1: cool promost that I think got going on every single day. 623 00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:19,600 Speaker 1: But you can't do any of that, and you can't 624 00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:21,679 Speaker 1: get your one hundred and fifteen bonus bets if you 625 00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:24,800 Speaker 1: don't download us. So download the hard Rock Bet Sportsbook 626 00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:28,119 Speaker 1: app right now, and of course that'll do it for us. 627 00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:30,600 Speaker 1: Here a Wildcard Weekend. It's been a fun conversation. It's 628 00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:33,080 Speaker 1: nice to see Andrew Erics and I start off with 629 00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:34,879 Speaker 1: a big cavern between us and then by the end 630 00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:37,359 Speaker 1: of the show coming together with some of our favorite 631 00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:40,000 Speaker 1: picks being the same thing. I like that. It feels good, 632 00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:42,119 Speaker 1: it feels right, and I want to go six in 633 00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:44,600 Speaker 1: a row on the upset specials. I want Jacksonville to 634 00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:47,959 Speaker 1: win so bad. Liam Cone get his first head coaching 635 00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:51,040 Speaker 1: playoff victory. That would be fun. And I wonder, I 636 00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:53,960 Speaker 1: wonder is McDermott done if the Bills losing the first 637 00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:58,200 Speaker 1: round of the playoffs. Hmm, interesting food for thought. Maybe 638 00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:00,840 Speaker 1: the windows closing for Buffalo will see Hey, maybe Josh 639 00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:03,200 Speaker 1: Allen has one more trick up as sleeve. But we'll 640 00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:05,840 Speaker 1: be back on Monday to look at all the new lines. 641 00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:09,120 Speaker 1: And don't forget Friday prop show too well shall be here. 642 00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:11,480 Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about our favorite prosper Wildcard weekend, so 643 00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:13,320 Speaker 1: subscribe to the YouTube channel. That'll do it for us. 644 00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:15,040 Speaker 1: But the story of the game goes on for Andrew 645 00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:18,040 Speaker 1: Eriks and I'm Joey p. We'll see you next time. Kids. 646 00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:19,440 Speaker 1: Enjoy all that football. 647 00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:22,280 Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you 648 00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:24,720 Speaker 3: love the show, the best freeway to support us is 649 00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:28,159 Speaker 3: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 650 00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:31,040 Speaker 3: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and 651 00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:34,840 Speaker 3: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube 652 00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:42,960 Speaker 3: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting pros,