1
00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:07,000
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

2
00:00:11,240 --> 00:00:14,600
Speaker 2: Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Chrisner. The

3
00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:17,439
Speaker 2: crude oil market remains volatile given a lot of the

4
00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:20,960
Speaker 2: uncertainty around shipments leaving the Strait of horn Mooves. This

5
00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:25,799
Speaker 2: narrow waterway has been effectively closed by Iran. Prices were

6
00:00:25,800 --> 00:00:27,880
Speaker 2: in retreat in the New York session on the bet

7
00:00:27,880 --> 00:00:31,160
Speaker 2: that oil tankers will soon be able to traverse the strait,

8
00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:34,600
Speaker 2: and some of that optimism seem to come from ship

9
00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:38,680
Speaker 2: tracking data showing a Pakistan flag tanker clearing the Strait

10
00:00:38,720 --> 00:00:41,080
Speaker 2: of horn Moos. For a closer look, I'm joined by

11
00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:45,320
Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Paul Dobson. Paul is Executive editor for Asia Markets.

12
00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:48,600
Speaker 2: Thank you for being here from our studios in Singapore.

13
00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:50,639
Speaker 2: I just wanted to add that point. I know there

14
00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:53,720
Speaker 2: are a lot of threads to bring together here, Paul,

15
00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:56,280
Speaker 2: but if you look at the move higher right now

16
00:00:56,320 --> 00:01:00,280
Speaker 2: in oil prices, which is to say negative sentiment, is

17
00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:02,200
Speaker 2: there a way that you can help me understand what's

18
00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:03,360
Speaker 2: driving this price action?

19
00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:08,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, Hi, Doug. I think that the market will point

20
00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:13,200
Speaker 3: to a few different reasons for the lower prices. I

21
00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:17,759
Speaker 3: think number one is that release from the strategic reserves

22
00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:20,880
Speaker 3: by the ITEA, and the way that that's structured. Think

23
00:01:20,920 --> 00:01:23,840
Speaker 3: in the US in particular, it's in exchange, so it's

24
00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:27,560
Speaker 3: sort of borrowing from the future in a way, and

25
00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:30,360
Speaker 3: so in order to price that you have lower short

26
00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:34,040
Speaker 3: term prices and higher longer term prices once that sort

27
00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:37,000
Speaker 3: of gets put back into storage later on. On top

28
00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:41,360
Speaker 3: of that, we do have some tankers making their way

29
00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:45,640
Speaker 3: out of the Strait of Hormus and heading to various locations.

30
00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:49,280
Speaker 3: The Iranian crude is continued to flow. I think that

31
00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:51,520
Speaker 3: Trump has said that they've been allowing that and some

32
00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:55,640
Speaker 3: other tankers, for example, going to Pakistan. You have the

33
00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:59,440
Speaker 3: availability of the Russian crewed coming back onto the market

34
00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:03,360
Speaker 3: after Trump allowed a waiver on the sanctions there. So

35
00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:07,840
Speaker 3: that's also helping some countries that are particularly strapped to

36
00:02:07,880 --> 00:02:12,160
Speaker 3: get their hands on some fuel. And you have the

37
00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:15,239
Speaker 3: sort of alternative supply routes. So we know that there's

38
00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:19,280
Speaker 3: a large cluster of tankers waiting to pick up crude

39
00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:23,120
Speaker 3: on the Saudi coast in the Red Sea rather than

40
00:02:23,160 --> 00:02:26,160
Speaker 3: in the Strait of Horror Moos. So I think it

41
00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:28,679
Speaker 3: all points to the idea that all those supplier is

42
00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:31,160
Speaker 3: going to be reduced, It's not going to be completely

43
00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:38,080
Speaker 3: kind of halted from the oil producers in the Strait

44
00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:41,400
Speaker 3: of Hormuz area. That said, I think I would be

45
00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:43,880
Speaker 3: cautious about getting too it carried away or too excited

46
00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:46,280
Speaker 3: about this. You know, we do have prices still around

47
00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:49,440
Speaker 3: one hundred dollars a barrel, and we do still have

48
00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:53,680
Speaker 3: those supply curbs and impingements everywhere. And the fact of

49
00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:55,960
Speaker 3: the matter is that the longer this goes on, the

50
00:02:55,960 --> 00:02:58,320
Speaker 3: more stockpiles around the world are going to get drained,

51
00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:00,600
Speaker 3: the scarce of oil is going to become, the higher

52
00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:01,600
Speaker 3: the price is going to go.

53
00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:04,320
Speaker 2: No doubt about that. And we talk a lot about

54
00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:08,160
Speaker 2: the volatility being linked to headline risk, and I'm getting

55
00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:10,960
Speaker 2: a report on the Bloomberg terminal. Now, this is a

56
00:03:11,040 --> 00:03:14,440
Speaker 2: news report coming out of the UAE that the government

57
00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:18,880
Speaker 2: has closed its airspace to some extent early in the

58
00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:22,520
Speaker 2: morning on Tuesday. So when you get a headline like

59
00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:24,480
Speaker 2: that and I'm looking at the knee jerk response and

60
00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:26,800
Speaker 2: the oil market is to push prices higher, it just

61
00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:30,120
Speaker 2: kind of addresses the level of anxiety in the market

62
00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:30,640
Speaker 2: right now.

63
00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:34,639
Speaker 3: It does, and we saw in Dubai yesterday, we had

64
00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:38,880
Speaker 3: the blaze near the airport that disrupted flights for a

65
00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:44,000
Speaker 3: while already. And the fact that the Iranian seem to

66
00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:48,560
Speaker 3: be targeting more energy infrastructure is also a traveling development

67
00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:52,800
Speaker 3: that is causing more headaches and again sort of ratcheting

68
00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:59,040
Speaker 3: up the stresses in the oil and the energy markets.

69
00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:01,400
Speaker 3: Now you do have Trump as well talking about this

70
00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:05,080
Speaker 3: idea of can he put together a coalition that will

71
00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:10,600
Speaker 3: help to provide military sort of escorts, navy escorts to

72
00:04:10,640 --> 00:04:13,280
Speaker 3: get more tankers out of the Strait of hor Mews.

73
00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:18,320
Speaker 3: And it doesn't seem to be getting a very enthusiastic

74
00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:23,039
Speaker 3: reception in global markets or in global geopolitical space so far.

75
00:04:23,400 --> 00:04:27,279
Speaker 3: I think you have Japan not looking very enthusiastic, South

76
00:04:27,320 --> 00:04:29,520
Speaker 3: Korea saying it's thinking about it. You do have France

77
00:04:29,560 --> 00:04:32,240
Speaker 3: saying that indicating that they may be willing to help

78
00:04:32,279 --> 00:04:35,479
Speaker 3: out they think the UK was offering much support either.

79
00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:38,600
Speaker 3: I mean, you can see it both ways, and as

80
00:04:38,640 --> 00:04:41,800
Speaker 3: well on that respect, because these are countries and are

81
00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:44,400
Speaker 3: more dependent on getting that crewed into the global markets

82
00:04:44,400 --> 00:04:46,920
Speaker 3: probably than the US is because the US s energy independence.

83
00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:48,960
Speaker 3: But on the other hand, people are saying well, you

84
00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:53,520
Speaker 3: started this, well, you know, you sorted out. So maybe

85
00:04:53,880 --> 00:04:55,960
Speaker 3: if this goes on longer term, it will be possible

86
00:04:56,000 --> 00:04:58,200
Speaker 3: that you will get to see some of those sort

87
00:04:58,240 --> 00:05:03,640
Speaker 3: of common voice going on. But it's extremely dangerous and precarious,

88
00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:09,320
Speaker 3: and it wouldn't take too many accidents, let's say, for

89
00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:13,159
Speaker 3: that to be halted again. So the idea that that's

90
00:05:13,160 --> 00:05:16,359
Speaker 3: going to really help supply the market anytime scene seems

91
00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:17,640
Speaker 3: to be a little bit optimistic.

92
00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:20,480
Speaker 2: And at the same time, Paul, we have this apparent

93
00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:23,920
Speaker 2: disagreement between the US and the UK as to whether

94
00:05:24,040 --> 00:05:27,240
Speaker 2: or not Iran has been mining the Strait of Hormuz.

95
00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:31,760
Speaker 2: The UK Defense Secretary John Healey was saying earlier it's

96
00:05:31,800 --> 00:05:35,080
Speaker 2: becoming clear that Iran was laying explosives, but from the

97
00:05:35,200 --> 00:05:38,760
Speaker 2: US side, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was saying, there's not

98
00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:42,440
Speaker 2: clear evidence that that's the case. This is still a

99
00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:44,359
Speaker 2: very very dangerous setting, is it not?

100
00:05:45,440 --> 00:05:48,880
Speaker 3: Absolutely? I think the tanker track of data seems to

101
00:05:48,920 --> 00:05:51,120
Speaker 3: indicate that the ships that have been leaving the Strait

102
00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:54,600
Speaker 3: of Hormus recently have hugged very closely to the Iranian coastline.

103
00:05:55,560 --> 00:05:59,120
Speaker 3: So some people looking at those movements are suggesting that

104
00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:05,600
Speaker 3: might be bigause of mine activity across the more usual

105
00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:09,760
Speaker 3: shipping routes, but again it could be sort of a

106
00:06:09,880 --> 00:06:12,360
Speaker 3: ruse in order to make it look that way as well.

107
00:06:12,400 --> 00:06:15,160
Speaker 3: So I don't think we have any particularly from clarity

108
00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:17,920
Speaker 3: on that. It is a very narrow channel and if

109
00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:19,720
Speaker 3: there are minds in there, then they would need to

110
00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:23,120
Speaker 3: be cleared before you can get large numbers of ships

111
00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:27,120
Speaker 3: flowing again backwards and forwards, and so that would make

112
00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:29,880
Speaker 3: the situation all the more dangerous. So yeah, I mean,

113
00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:32,440
Speaker 3: we have a lot of stresses and tensions and precarious

114
00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:38,840
Speaker 3: arrangements going on right now, Doug. And you know, the

115
00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:41,320
Speaker 3: KRUDE all market, as you said, is back up again

116
00:06:41,560 --> 00:06:45,200
Speaker 3: a little bit already this morning in asious hours, and

117
00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:48,159
Speaker 3: so that tension looks like it's going to continue and

118
00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:50,400
Speaker 3: to percolate across the rest of global markets as well

119
00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:50,920
Speaker 3: as a result.

120
00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:53,760
Speaker 2: And what's unmistakable is that we've got a pretty powerful

121
00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:55,960
Speaker 2: rally going on in South Korea right now. And I'm

122
00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:58,320
Speaker 2: just going to guess that this is tied to some

123
00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:01,600
Speaker 2: of the commentary that we heard from Jensen Huang, the

124
00:07:01,640 --> 00:07:05,200
Speaker 2: CEO of Nvidia, saying tonight in the US that he

125
00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:07,760
Speaker 2: was expecting to see the company generate at least a

126
00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:10,760
Speaker 2: trillion dollars in chip sales through the end of twenty

127
00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:15,320
Speaker 2: twenty seven. So this just kind of reaffirms the optimism

128
00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:18,920
Speaker 2: maybe some people have as it relates to artificial intelligence.

129
00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:21,680
Speaker 3: Yes, that's right, and that had taken a bit of

130
00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:24,200
Speaker 3: a back seat as we'd focus so much on the

131
00:07:24,240 --> 00:07:27,240
Speaker 3: situation in the Middle East. So it's good to hear

132
00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:31,840
Speaker 3: something a bit more positive about the chip in the

133
00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:35,280
Speaker 3: AI industry. I think was it that the mag seven

134
00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:39,000
Speaker 3: had entered a correction at the start of this week,

135
00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:40,840
Speaker 3: and so we have seen a little bit of a

136
00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:44,560
Speaker 3: rebound in those companies now, and yeah, that's definitely feeding

137
00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:47,440
Speaker 3: into the Asia market environment. I think there were a

138
00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:50,200
Speaker 3: couple of deals in the last twenty four hours as well,

139
00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:55,320
Speaker 3: the in AI space, and so yes, that had become

140
00:07:55,360 --> 00:07:58,000
Speaker 3: a little bit of an underappreciated theme that South Korea

141
00:07:58,000 --> 00:08:00,880
Speaker 3: had obviously had a lot of what as the war

142
00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:03,800
Speaker 3: broke out, and very steep losses in a couple of

143
00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:06,520
Speaker 3: days of trading at least, and so maybe they have

144
00:08:06,640 --> 00:08:10,880
Speaker 3: those sort of value seekers coming back out and eyeing

145
00:08:10,960 --> 00:08:15,040
Speaker 3: the big chip stock. Samsung sk Heinix. I'm thinking that

146
00:08:15,080 --> 00:08:16,960
Speaker 3: there might be an opportunity here to pick them up

147
00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:18,160
Speaker 3: at a little bit of a discount.

148
00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:20,240
Speaker 2: So before I let you go, I want to get

149
00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:23,040
Speaker 2: your thoughts on what we heard today from President Trump.

150
00:08:23,080 --> 00:08:27,000
Speaker 2: He has requested a delay of his trip to China.

151
00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:30,080
Speaker 2: He had been scheduled, obviously to meet with Shi Jinping

152
00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:33,040
Speaker 2: at the end of the month, but mister Trump asked

153
00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:34,800
Speaker 2: to put it off for a month or so because

154
00:08:34,800 --> 00:08:37,720
Speaker 2: of the war in Iran. Give me your sense of

155
00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:41,359
Speaker 2: what people are saying about how this war is impacting

156
00:08:41,640 --> 00:08:44,800
Speaker 2: relations between the US and China so far.

157
00:08:44,960 --> 00:08:47,960
Speaker 3: I would probably say that they're trying to look the

158
00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:50,760
Speaker 3: other way on both sides when it comes to the

159
00:08:50,920 --> 00:08:54,320
Speaker 3: US China sort of relationship. I mean, Chrump evenflated the

160
00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:56,480
Speaker 3: idea that maybe China would like to send some ships

161
00:08:56,480 --> 00:09:01,480
Speaker 3: as well to help with the extraction of tankers from

162
00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:03,800
Speaker 3: the straight up holl News. I'm not sure that China

163
00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:08,000
Speaker 3: wants to go there, but the backdrop had so far

164
00:09:08,120 --> 00:09:13,040
Speaker 3: been very positive in terms of the relationship between Trump

165
00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:15,800
Speaker 3: and She. Between the US and China, that sort of

166
00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:18,560
Speaker 3: truce that had been struck after we saw the big

167
00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:23,520
Speaker 3: escalation of the tariffs, you know, in April, May June

168
00:09:23,880 --> 00:09:27,079
Speaker 3: last year, and I think that you know, there were

169
00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:30,640
Speaker 3: even meetings between some of the officials over the past

170
00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:34,280
Speaker 3: week that on the whole seems to come out relatively favorably.

171
00:09:34,360 --> 00:09:37,400
Speaker 3: So the idea that this meeting has been delayed is

172
00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:41,680
Speaker 3: probably you know, Trump has occupied with other things, bigger

173
00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:44,320
Speaker 3: things that he needs to worry about right now, and

174
00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:47,760
Speaker 3: so perhaps from both sides perspective, it actually makes sense

175
00:09:47,840 --> 00:09:53,000
Speaker 3: to wait a second see how that situation evolves before

176
00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:56,360
Speaker 3: talking about what happens next. In the terms of the

177
00:09:56,440 --> 00:09:59,599
Speaker 3: US China relationship, what we did see yesterday was su

178
00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:04,560
Speaker 3: been prices falling. The idea being the you know, if

179
00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:06,560
Speaker 3: Trump and she don't meet, then maybe there won't be

180
00:10:06,640 --> 00:10:11,600
Speaker 3: some more purchases of US agricultural products from China agreed

181
00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:14,000
Speaker 3: to and so you know, the market does have a

182
00:10:14,000 --> 00:10:16,000
Speaker 3: little bit of a reaction to that, but it seems

183
00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:19,640
Speaker 3: like it's more of a delay rather than a sort

184
00:10:19,640 --> 00:10:21,360
Speaker 3: of disagreement at this point.

185
00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:23,719
Speaker 2: Inside, Okay, Paul, thank you so very much. We'll leave

186
00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:27,520
Speaker 2: it there. Bloomberg's Paul Dobson. Paul is executive editor for

187
00:10:27,600 --> 00:10:30,679
Speaker 2: Asia Markets. Joining us here on the Daybreak Asia Podcast.

188
00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:40,800
Speaker 2: Welcome back to the Daybreak Asia Podcast. I'm Doug Prisner.

189
00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:44,600
Speaker 2: President Trump has requested a delay of his trip to Beijing.

190
00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:47,319
Speaker 2: He had been scheduled to meet with President Chi chen

191
00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:49,440
Speaker 2: Ping at the end of the month, but he's asking

192
00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:51,400
Speaker 2: to put it off for a month or so because

193
00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:54,080
Speaker 2: of the war in Iran. And at the same time,

194
00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:57,560
Speaker 2: President Trump reiterated an appeal for help from other nations,

195
00:10:57,760 --> 00:11:01,520
Speaker 2: including China, to help secure this straight of horror moves. Now,

196
00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:04,320
Speaker 2: several nations have already said they're not getting involved. In

197
00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:08,839
Speaker 2: That list includes Spain, Italy, Japan, and Australia. And that's

198
00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:11,920
Speaker 2: where we begin our conversation with Mara Rudman. Mara is

199
00:11:11,920 --> 00:11:15,760
Speaker 2: a practitioner Senior Fellow at the University of Virginia Miller Center.

200
00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:19,640
Speaker 2: She spoke with Bloomberg TV host Heidi Stroud, Watts and Sherry.

201
00:11:19,320 --> 00:11:23,360
Speaker 4: On the narratives myriad of fuss moving at this point.

202
00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:25,079
Speaker 4: But it was quite interesting that we did see at

203
00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:28,800
Speaker 4: one point President Trump trying to draw in a number

204
00:11:28,800 --> 00:11:31,720
Speaker 4: of countries and allies to help him, not with the

205
00:11:31,760 --> 00:11:34,360
Speaker 4: war effort necessarily, but certainly the effort to try and

206
00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:37,480
Speaker 4: restore energy security and one of those sort of reach

207
00:11:37,520 --> 00:11:40,800
Speaker 4: outs was directly to China. Is there anything that Beijing

208
00:11:40,880 --> 00:11:43,720
Speaker 4: has to gain to become further involved in what's going

209
00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:44,559
Speaker 4: on in the Middle East?

210
00:11:45,760 --> 00:11:49,880
Speaker 5: Probably not, And I believe that that is a calculation

211
00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:57,000
Speaker 5: that China is making. They while all global energy markets

212
00:11:57,040 --> 00:12:01,320
Speaker 5: are obviously affected by what is happening actions against Iran

213
00:12:01,400 --> 00:12:04,400
Speaker 5: and with the closure of the almost the closure of

214
00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:09,360
Speaker 5: the state of Hormus, China and Russia are two countries

215
00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:14,240
Speaker 5: that are, if not benefiting, certainly hurting much less than

216
00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:17,160
Speaker 5: all of the countries in the region, than Europe, then

217
00:12:17,240 --> 00:12:19,600
Speaker 5: pretty much everywhere else in the world. Part of that

218
00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:22,600
Speaker 5: with China is because it seems that they are still

219
00:12:22,640 --> 00:12:27,040
Speaker 5: getting some oil from Iran, that the ships that are

220
00:12:27,040 --> 00:12:30,560
Speaker 5: making it through the Strait of Hormus are Iranian ships

221
00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:34,559
Speaker 5: sending oil to China, so they don't feel the same

222
00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:39,520
Speaker 5: pressure that other countries might. And even if they did,

223
00:12:39,559 --> 00:12:42,560
Speaker 5: it's not clear that they would think it was wise

224
00:12:42,640 --> 00:12:46,760
Speaker 5: to respond to President Trump's request, and I put request

225
00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:51,720
Speaker 5: in quotes in an affirmative manner.

226
00:12:53,920 --> 00:12:54,160
Speaker 2: Mara.

227
00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:56,440
Speaker 4: Even as we speak, we're getting more updates when it

228
00:12:56,440 --> 00:12:59,040
Speaker 4: comes to the situation in the Middle East. We've seen

229
00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:03,200
Speaker 4: an announcement from the UAE saying the airspace closure has

230
00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:07,400
Speaker 4: is a temporary closure of its airspace. According to the

231
00:13:08,600 --> 00:13:13,200
Speaker 4: news agency there, the official news agency, we're also hearing

232
00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:16,840
Speaker 4: that it's a quote exceptional precautionary measure that's been taken

233
00:13:16,920 --> 00:13:20,240
Speaker 4: to close that UAE airspace. We know that even in

234
00:13:20,240 --> 00:13:23,080
Speaker 4: the last few hours we had the drone strike that

235
00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:27,040
Speaker 4: affected the ue gas fields and the suspension of operations there.

236
00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:29,800
Speaker 4: So things continue to play out, even as it's a

237
00:13:29,800 --> 00:13:31,920
Speaker 4: bit of alleviation when it comes to how markets are

238
00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:35,200
Speaker 4: feeling about oil prices. But I do wonder are we

239
00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:38,880
Speaker 4: learning much more about where we're at in these operations,

240
00:13:38,880 --> 00:13:41,560
Speaker 4: how close we are to any sort of conclusion. Is

241
00:13:41,559 --> 00:13:44,880
Speaker 4: there any possibility for an off ramp, because it doesn't

242
00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:47,120
Speaker 4: seem like the two sides are getting much closer.

243
00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:52,800
Speaker 5: Yeah, well, I think it's not imminent as and within

244
00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:55,160
Speaker 5: the next day or two that we're on an off round.

245
00:13:55,280 --> 00:13:58,079
Speaker 5: But President Trump is clearly going to be faced with

246
00:13:58,160 --> 00:14:01,960
Speaker 5: the decision, which is at some point to declare victory.

247
00:14:02,160 --> 00:14:04,720
Speaker 5: He's already done that a few times even as the

248
00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:09,160
Speaker 5: fighting continues, but to give some reason to pull back,

249
00:14:09,240 --> 00:14:12,080
Speaker 5: to take the exit ramp. As you say, But if

250
00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:15,520
Speaker 5: he does so at this point, he's doing this knowing

251
00:14:15,600 --> 00:14:20,000
Speaker 5: that he is leaving a significant, a not insignificant amount

252
00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:24,120
Speaker 5: of highly enriched uranium that essentially is very close to

253
00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:28,520
Speaker 5: or is perceived by some as giving Iran and whoever

254
00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:32,560
Speaker 5: remains in Iran a nuclear weapon capability. That I should

255
00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:36,320
Speaker 5: note is because President Trump. That highly enriched uranium occurred

256
00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:39,200
Speaker 5: because President Trump in his first term pulled out of

257
00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:44,040
Speaker 5: an agreement with Iran, the United States, Europe others with

258
00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:48,320
Speaker 5: Iran to restrict their enrichment uranium. But so the decision

259
00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:51,800
Speaker 5: he'll have to make is whether he continues going forward

260
00:14:52,040 --> 00:14:55,160
Speaker 5: puts US troops on the ground in a highly risky

261
00:14:56,240 --> 00:15:00,680
Speaker 5: situation to try to capture that highly enriched uran, or

262
00:15:00,680 --> 00:15:04,160
Speaker 5: if he finds a way to declare victory sooner but

263
00:15:04,360 --> 00:15:07,080
Speaker 5: leaving behind a very unstable situation.

264
00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:10,920
Speaker 1: You know, we're trying to sort of gauge what President

265
00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:13,520
Speaker 1: Trump could call a victory in this situation when we

266
00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:17,240
Speaker 1: don't necessarily know what the goal and justify strategy was

267
00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:20,520
Speaker 1: right for this initial conflict. But have we seen any

268
00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:24,840
Speaker 1: examples in past conflicts that perhaps could closely mirror to

269
00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:26,920
Speaker 1: what's happening in the run right now to sort of

270
00:15:26,960 --> 00:15:28,840
Speaker 1: gauge how this could unfold.

271
00:15:30,880 --> 00:15:36,400
Speaker 5: So I'm worry about trying parallels to pass examples, because

272
00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:40,000
Speaker 5: each conflict has its own set of quite literally facts

273
00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:42,360
Speaker 5: on the ground. But I think what we have seen

274
00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:47,720
Speaker 5: with President Trump at any number of instances is a willing,

275
00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:56,040
Speaker 5: willingness and ability to shape facts to what he perceives

276
00:15:56,560 --> 00:16:00,160
Speaker 5: as most useful to him. And so by saying that,

277
00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:02,280
Speaker 5: I would say that, you know, if he decides, and

278
00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:05,200
Speaker 5: we've heard him use words about complete wins and victories.

279
00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:08,800
Speaker 5: In fact, in the last engagement with Iran, he talked

280
00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:12,840
Speaker 5: about the United States having obliterated their nuclear weapon capability,

281
00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:15,480
Speaker 5: which is obviously not the case. But he could frame

282
00:16:15,560 --> 00:16:18,400
Speaker 5: this in a way now if he chose to that

283
00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:21,840
Speaker 5: would give the United States an off ramp. Open question

284
00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:25,240
Speaker 5: on his ability to talk with Israeli leadership, with Prime

285
00:16:25,240 --> 00:16:28,600
Speaker 5: Mister Natanyahu about how and if they would pull back

286
00:16:28,640 --> 00:16:32,120
Speaker 5: as well. So it's at this point is very much

287
00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:34,640
Speaker 5: in the framing in terms of what he does next

288
00:16:34,640 --> 00:16:38,640
Speaker 5: and what kinds of costs he's willing to endure over

289
00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:40,360
Speaker 5: the longer term if he stays in.

290
00:16:42,760 --> 00:16:46,560
Speaker 1: We're now seeing a president who has become boldly interventionist. Right,

291
00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:49,640
Speaker 1: we're talking about Iran, We're talking abou Venezuela. President Trump

292
00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:53,960
Speaker 1: now even talking about Cuba, potentially taking Cuba, talking about

293
00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:58,680
Speaker 1: the need for their president to resign. How do global

294
00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:01,600
Speaker 1: leaders take this in And this is my question to you,

295
00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:04,400
Speaker 1: as Prime Minister, Takaichi is supposed to meet with President

296
00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:07,480
Speaker 1: Trump this week in the very, very high stakes conversation

297
00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:10,560
Speaker 1: where the US is asking them for maritime support to

298
00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:15,560
Speaker 1: a pacifist country.

299
00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:19,639
Speaker 5: So my perception is that global leaders throughout the world

300
00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:24,720
Speaker 5: are wary, and for a good reason. But I would

301
00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:28,200
Speaker 5: expect that all of them are carefully calculating what they

302
00:17:28,240 --> 00:17:31,000
Speaker 5: need the United States for, regardless of who's the leader

303
00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:33,399
Speaker 5: of the United States, what they can do on their own,

304
00:17:33,800 --> 00:17:36,800
Speaker 5: what they can do in alliance with others. And thus far,

305
00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:42,439
Speaker 5: Japan's leadership has been I would say, very savvy in

306
00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:48,160
Speaker 5: how they have interacted with President Trump to have him

307
00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:50,440
Speaker 5: feel like his interests are being served and yet also

308
00:17:50,520 --> 00:17:54,560
Speaker 5: be able to manage their own and I would anticipate

309
00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:57,280
Speaker 5: that kind of interaction continuing.

310
00:17:57,480 --> 00:18:01,240
Speaker 2: That was Maura Rudman, practitioner, Senior Fellow at the University

311
00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:05,040
Speaker 2: of Virginia Miller Center, speaking with Bloomberg TV host Heidi Stroud,

312
00:18:05,080 --> 00:18:08,119
Speaker 2: Watts and Cherry On bringing you their conversation here on

313
00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:13,600
Speaker 2: the Daybreak Asia Podcast. Thanks for listening to today's episode

314
00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:17,679
Speaker 2: of the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Edition podcast. Each weekday, we

315
00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:21,600
Speaker 2: look at the story shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics in

316
00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:24,800
Speaker 2: the Asia Pacific. You can find us on Apple, Spotify,

317
00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:28,440
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel, or anywhere else you listen.

318
00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:31,760
Speaker 2: Join us again tomorrow for insight on the market moves

319
00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:36,320
Speaker 2: from Hong Kong to Singapore and Australia. I'm Doug Chrisner,

320
00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:37,919
Speaker 2: and this is Bloomberg