1 00:00:01,320 --> 00:00:04,240 Speaker 1: Welcome to Stuff You Missed in History Class, a production 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:14,000 Speaker 1: of iHeartRadio. Hello, and welcome to the podcast. I'm Holly 3 00:00:14,040 --> 00:00:18,160 Speaker 1: Frye and I'm Tracy V. Wilson. So today's subject is 4 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:20,080 Speaker 1: a person who's been on my list for a minute, 5 00:00:20,880 --> 00:00:24,120 Speaker 1: not a really commonly known name, but whose work is 6 00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:27,440 Speaker 1: probably impacting the life of every single person listening in 7 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 1: one way or another. He did this work nearly four 8 00:00:31,400 --> 00:00:33,599 Speaker 1: hundred years ago, but it really changed the way that 9 00:00:33,640 --> 00:00:40,159 Speaker 1: people perceived population and mortality by measuring it, because that 10 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:43,880 Speaker 1: changes the outcome. We are talking about John Grant, who 11 00:00:43,920 --> 00:00:48,760 Speaker 1: was a shopkeeper in London who, through both personal connections 12 00:00:48,800 --> 00:00:50,960 Speaker 1: and a desire to just kind of follow his own 13 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 1: curiosity which I love to a rather grand result, became 14 00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 1: very well respected among the city's most revered intellectuals. Work 15 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:04,800 Speaker 1: gave rise to the field of demography and epidemiology, and 16 00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:08,200 Speaker 1: his work could be categorized as statistical analysis, although the 17 00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:11,480 Speaker 1: word statistics didn't even exist for another one hundred years 18 00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:14,199 Speaker 1: after he died. But that's who we're talking about today. 19 00:01:15,120 --> 00:01:18,920 Speaker 1: So John Grant was born April twenty fourth, sixteen twenty 20 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:23,480 Speaker 1: in London, England, to Henry and Mary Grant, who raised 21 00:01:23,680 --> 00:01:27,040 Speaker 1: John and their other children. There may have been seven 22 00:01:27,160 --> 00:01:31,000 Speaker 1: other children raised the mall As Puritans at the end 23 00:01:31,040 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 1: of the seventeenth century. Antiquarian and philosopher John Aubrey included 24 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:39,920 Speaker 1: Grant in his book Brief Lives, which covered notable seventeenth 25 00:01:39,959 --> 00:01:44,080 Speaker 1: century figures, and he quite charmingly describes the start of 26 00:01:44,120 --> 00:01:48,000 Speaker 1: Grant's life this way quote was born twenty four d 27 00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 1: aprilis at the seven Stars in Burton Lane, London, in 28 00:01:52,440 --> 00:01:56,200 Speaker 1: the parish of Saint Michael's Cornhill, an hour before eight 29 00:01:56,200 --> 00:01:59,680 Speaker 1: o'clock on a Monday morning, the sign being in the 30 00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:03,120 Speaker 1: nine degree of Gemini that day at twelve o'clock. Anno 31 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:09,040 Speaker 1: Domino sixteen twenty. Yeah, that Aubrey account will discuss a 32 00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:12,480 Speaker 1: good bit throughout this journey. But reading it is very 33 00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:16,120 Speaker 1: fun because it is, you know, old timy language. But 34 00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:18,079 Speaker 1: also I don't know, he just has a flare for 35 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:21,240 Speaker 1: freezing that makes me chuckle. I like that the date 36 00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 1: of his birth was in Latin. The rest of it's 37 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 1: not Latin, but just that part. That's kind of how 38 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:29,400 Speaker 1: all of Brief Lives go. There's a little Latin sprinkled throughout. 39 00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:35,400 Speaker 1: For insussient flair. Although today Grant is pretty much always 40 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 1: mentioned as being a statistician or something related, that is 41 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:43,160 Speaker 1: very far from where he started. This is going to 42 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 1: get into holly pedantry just a little, so bear with me. 43 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 1: He is described as a draper in some accounts and 44 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:54,040 Speaker 1: a haberdasher in others. These are similar roles, but they're 45 00:02:54,080 --> 00:02:58,880 Speaker 1: actually different. A draper would have sold fabric for garment construction, 46 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 1: whereas a haberdash would have sold sewing notions, so things 47 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:06,720 Speaker 1: like thread, buttons, et cetera. This is, of course also 48 00:03:06,760 --> 00:03:09,600 Speaker 1: different from the way the word haberdasher is used today 49 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:12,880 Speaker 1: in North America, where it usually means somebody who sells 50 00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 1: men's wear. In this case, this would not have been 51 00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:21,280 Speaker 1: a men'swear specific enterprise. So Grant, we know, would have 52 00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:24,960 Speaker 1: been selling sewing supplies of some type intended for garment construction, 53 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:27,520 Speaker 1: but it's not one hundred percent clear if it was 54 00:03:27,560 --> 00:03:32,679 Speaker 1: fabric or notions. The Aubrey biography calls him a haberdasher, 55 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:36,920 Speaker 1: noting he was quote haberdasher of small wares, but was 56 00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 1: free of the draper's company. That small amount of words 57 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:45,080 Speaker 1: just confuses things more because haberdashers and drapers in London 58 00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 1: at this time already had completely separate guilds. However, Aubrey 59 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:55,080 Speaker 1: seems to have been incorrect about Grant's guild status. John's father, 60 00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:58,480 Speaker 1: Henry Grant, was a member of the Worshipful Company of Drapers, 61 00:03:58,520 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 1: having been admitted in sixteen fourteen, and John apprenticed with 62 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:05,880 Speaker 1: his father. According to Henry Conner, writing for the Journal 63 00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:09,400 Speaker 1: of Medical Biography in twenty twenty two, John Grant quote 64 00:04:09,440 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 1: was admitted by patrimony to the freedom of the Draper's 65 00:04:12,480 --> 00:04:16,440 Speaker 1: Company when twenty one, and granted the livery when thirty eight. 66 00:04:16,839 --> 00:04:21,400 Speaker 1: So for context, freedom admission indicates that a tradesperson is 67 00:04:21,520 --> 00:04:24,479 Speaker 1: set on the track to becoming a full member, and 68 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:27,839 Speaker 1: then when they are granted livery, they have met certain 69 00:04:27,880 --> 00:04:31,839 Speaker 1: requirements and submitted a formal application. So it does appear 70 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:36,400 Speaker 1: that Grant was a full member in the Draper's Guild. Yeah, 71 00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 1: i e. Not a haberd usher. Tracy also pointed out 72 00:04:39,400 --> 00:04:42,560 Speaker 1: that that wording of Aubrey's could be confusing and mean 73 00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:46,440 Speaker 1: that he was a freeman within the Draper's Company. But 74 00:04:46,480 --> 00:04:48,520 Speaker 1: it doesn't seem like that's what he's getting at. I 75 00:04:48,520 --> 00:04:51,640 Speaker 1: could I'm wrong in my interpretation. We do know that 76 00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:54,400 Speaker 1: Grant got married the same year that he was admitted 77 00:04:54,400 --> 00:04:57,440 Speaker 1: to the Draper's Guild as a full member, so he 78 00:04:57,520 --> 00:05:00,800 Speaker 1: married a seventeen year old named Mary Scott. We know 79 00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:04,000 Speaker 1: very little about their marriage, although according to Aubrey, they 80 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:06,720 Speaker 1: had two children who lived to adulthood, a son and 81 00:05:06,760 --> 00:05:10,479 Speaker 1: a daughter, and two other kids who died in infancy. 82 00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:15,720 Speaker 1: Those children were also daughters. The only details we know 83 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 1: about the surviving children also come from that Aubrey biography, 84 00:05:19,360 --> 00:05:24,600 Speaker 1: so a little bit difficult to substantiate. He states that 85 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:27,760 Speaker 1: their son died as an adult in Persia and that 86 00:05:27,839 --> 00:05:31,640 Speaker 1: the daughter became a nun. Grant became very active in 87 00:05:31,680 --> 00:05:34,880 Speaker 1: his community and served in a number of civic roles, 88 00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 1: including on London's Common Council and his later years, he 89 00:05:39,000 --> 00:05:42,880 Speaker 1: was also active in infrastructure projects like developing a canal 90 00:05:43,080 --> 00:05:45,880 Speaker 1: that brought water into the city. As part of his 91 00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:49,200 Speaker 1: standing as a citizen and a community leader, Grant was 92 00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:52,600 Speaker 1: also a member of London's Trained Bands. This was a 93 00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:56,159 Speaker 1: militia made up of homeowners within the city that served 94 00:05:56,160 --> 00:06:00,160 Speaker 1: as a defense force serving under the Lord Mayor. Was 95 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:03,520 Speaker 1: often addressed as captain in various accounts of his life, 96 00:06:03,800 --> 00:06:08,320 Speaker 1: suggesting he attained that rank in the militia. Aubrey, who 97 00:06:08,440 --> 00:06:11,720 Speaker 1: knew Grant and was his friend, describes him as a 98 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:16,159 Speaker 1: man who was well liked, pleasant and smart. In addition 99 00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 1: to John Aubrey, a wide array of impressive friends clustered 100 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:22,800 Speaker 1: around Grant, and many of them are well known today. 101 00:06:23,680 --> 00:06:27,840 Speaker 1: Samuel Peeps mentions Grant in his diaries, noting on April twentieth, 102 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:31,160 Speaker 1: sixteen sixty three, quote, So to my office the remaining 103 00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:34,000 Speaker 1: part of the morning till towards noon, and then to 104 00:06:34,120 --> 00:06:37,560 Speaker 1: mister Grant's. There saw his prints, which he showed me, 105 00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:41,360 Speaker 1: and indeed are the best collection of any things almost 106 00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:44,279 Speaker 1: that ever I saw there. Being the prince of most 107 00:06:44,279 --> 00:06:48,000 Speaker 1: of the greatest houses, churches and antiquities in Italy and France, 108 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:51,520 Speaker 1: and brave cuts, I had not time to look them 109 00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:53,720 Speaker 1: over as I ought, and which I will take time 110 00:06:53,760 --> 00:06:57,520 Speaker 1: hereafter to do, and therefore left them and home to dinner. 111 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:01,039 Speaker 1: He became friendly with Sir Benjamin Rudyard, who was a 112 00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:05,360 Speaker 1: poet and a politician in Parliament. Painter John Hales was 113 00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:07,440 Speaker 1: another friend who would come to be known for his 114 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:12,280 Speaker 1: portraits of Lady Diana Russell, Duchess of Bedford Lady Anne Russell, 115 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:16,280 Speaker 1: Countess of Bedford, and Samuel Peeps, and several members of 116 00:07:16,280 --> 00:07:21,120 Speaker 1: Peeps's family. Another artist friend was Samuel Cooper, considered to 117 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:25,280 Speaker 1: be maybe the best portrait miniature painter of the sixteen hundreds. 118 00:07:25,720 --> 00:07:30,120 Speaker 1: But the most well known of Grant's friends was William Petty. Petty, 119 00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:32,600 Speaker 1: who was three years younger than Grant, was a man 120 00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:36,120 Speaker 1: of many interests and abilities. He was a doctor, a 121 00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:39,680 Speaker 1: professor of both anatomy and music, and a surveyor, and 122 00:07:39,760 --> 00:07:43,200 Speaker 1: alongside his good friend John Grant, he became interested in 123 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:47,120 Speaker 1: using available data to gain insight into the world around him. 124 00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:50,320 Speaker 1: But before that the two men were already very close. 125 00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:54,840 Speaker 1: Grant had helped Petty get his music professorship at Gresham College. 126 00:07:55,320 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 1: Petty gave Grant his power of attorney. In sixteen sixty 127 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:03,000 Speaker 1: they purchased proper together on Lothbury Street, the short street 128 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:06,360 Speaker 1: in London that was popular with professionals. This land is 129 00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:10,480 Speaker 1: now occupied by the Bank of England. Grant was, through 130 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:13,360 Speaker 1: various groups and friendships, tied to a lot of the 131 00:08:13,400 --> 00:08:17,680 Speaker 1: city's intellectuals and leaders. Coming up, we will talk about 132 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:20,800 Speaker 1: how Grant's own curiosity led him to start looking at 133 00:08:20,880 --> 00:08:24,760 Speaker 1: death statistics, but first we will pause for a sponsor break. 134 00:08:34,240 --> 00:08:38,679 Speaker 1: For some reason which remains unclear, Grant became really interested 135 00:08:38,800 --> 00:08:42,760 Speaker 1: in London's death records. They would have been commonly available, 136 00:08:42,800 --> 00:08:45,440 Speaker 1: and as a merchant, information about the shifts in the 137 00:08:45,440 --> 00:08:48,960 Speaker 1: city's population would have been important to John Grant and 138 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:53,200 Speaker 1: to others. These accounts of the deaths in the city 139 00:08:53,240 --> 00:08:55,920 Speaker 1: have their own interesting stories. So we're gonna jump backwards 140 00:08:55,960 --> 00:08:59,640 Speaker 1: a little bit to the fifteen twenties. Starting in fifteen 141 00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:03,080 Speaker 1: twenty seven, the bills of mortality, which were simply lists 142 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:06,360 Speaker 1: of the dead, began to be collected in London. The 143 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 1: oldest surviving bill of mortality that we know of is 144 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:13,760 Speaker 1: from fifteen thirty two, and the gathering of this information 145 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:16,480 Speaker 1: was done for the most part by elderly women of 146 00:09:16,520 --> 00:09:19,840 Speaker 1: the various parishes of the city. They were called searchers. 147 00:09:20,559 --> 00:09:24,400 Speaker 1: When someone died, allowed bell was rung to summon the searchers, 148 00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:26,160 Speaker 1: and a pair of them would go to the house 149 00:09:26,160 --> 00:09:28,800 Speaker 1: where the bell had come from to observe the body. 150 00:09:29,559 --> 00:09:32,720 Speaker 1: They would note each death, collect those names into lists, 151 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:35,600 Speaker 1: which were submitted to the parish clerks, who then entered 152 00:09:35,640 --> 00:09:38,480 Speaker 1: them into the official record and also publish the list. 153 00:09:38,720 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 1: The names were not included in the list. The publicly 154 00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:44,920 Speaker 1: available records normally listed the parish and just the number 155 00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:48,760 Speaker 1: of deaths. And initially this job was really just to 156 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:51,000 Speaker 1: determine if people had died of the plague so that 157 00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:54,320 Speaker 1: they could track that, But over time the searchers started 158 00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:57,560 Speaker 1: to include causes of death other than the plague, even 159 00:09:57,600 --> 00:10:00,600 Speaker 1: though they didn't really have medical trainings. They were kind 160 00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:03,880 Speaker 1: of going on a combo of common sense and vibes. Yeah, 161 00:10:03,880 --> 00:10:07,000 Speaker 1: if I remember correctly, we talked about these searchers in 162 00:10:07,040 --> 00:10:13,160 Speaker 1: our episode on Rickets. Yes, Rickets will come up later. Yeah, 163 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:14,800 Speaker 1: it was one of the reasons that it was like, 164 00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:20,920 Speaker 1: we have these references to Rickets in these lists, but 165 00:10:21,000 --> 00:10:24,120 Speaker 1: we don't really know for sure if that was actually Ricketts. 166 00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:27,320 Speaker 1: So for a long time these lists were submitted on 167 00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:29,760 Speaker 1: kind of a random basis, but toward the end of 168 00:10:29,760 --> 00:10:34,080 Speaker 1: the sixteenth century, in fifteen ninety two, a set schedule 169 00:10:34,280 --> 00:10:38,320 Speaker 1: was established for their regular submission. At the time, the 170 00:10:38,360 --> 00:10:41,000 Speaker 1: cause of death also started to be recorded, with a 171 00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:43,959 Speaker 1: summary count of how many people in a given parish 172 00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:47,880 Speaker 1: died from it. This was because London experienced a high 173 00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:50,880 Speaker 1: death rate starting that year, as the city struggled through 174 00:10:50,920 --> 00:10:53,599 Speaker 1: a plague outbreak that shut down the theaters and the 175 00:10:53,640 --> 00:10:57,440 Speaker 1: public houses. When the plague began, the city had an 176 00:10:57,559 --> 00:11:01,000 Speaker 1: estimated one hundred and fifty thousand people. Roughly ten percent 177 00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:05,320 Speaker 1: of the population died during this outbreak, but once death 178 00:11:05,400 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 1: numbers started to drop, the bills of mortality became less frequent. 179 00:11:09,760 --> 00:11:13,680 Speaker 1: Over time, they did add in christenings, and they tracked 180 00:11:13,720 --> 00:11:18,880 Speaker 1: population growth through surviving infants. Then another plague hit the 181 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:22,120 Speaker 1: city in sixteen oh three, just as James the sixth 182 00:11:22,160 --> 00:11:25,319 Speaker 1: of Scotland was taking on the additional title of James 183 00:11:25,400 --> 00:11:29,320 Speaker 1: the First of England and Ireland, and the newly established monarch, 184 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:32,600 Speaker 1: in an effort to get the city through this plague crisis, 185 00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:36,080 Speaker 1: put out a book of orders regarding how various aspects 186 00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:38,600 Speaker 1: of the plague were to be dealt with. Some of 187 00:11:38,600 --> 00:11:41,120 Speaker 1: this we're going to talk about on Friday, and he 188 00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:45,320 Speaker 1: reinstated a regular schedule for the bills of mortality. Under 189 00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:48,120 Speaker 1: the new orders, searchers had to submit their lists on 190 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:51,839 Speaker 1: Tuesdays and on Thursday mornings. The complete lists were made 191 00:11:51,880 --> 00:11:54,960 Speaker 1: available to the public, with copies available for a penny, 192 00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:58,520 Speaker 1: or people could get an annual subscription for four pennies, 193 00:11:58,520 --> 00:12:01,640 Speaker 1: which seems like a great deal. There was also an 194 00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:05,760 Speaker 1: annual report made that compiled the entire year's data that 195 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:09,040 Speaker 1: was always published on the Thursday before Christmas every year. 196 00:12:09,800 --> 00:12:13,199 Speaker 1: It wasn't until sixteen twenty nine that the report separated 197 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:16,560 Speaker 1: out deaths by male and female members of the population, 198 00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:20,840 Speaker 1: so for some example numbers, the report for all of 199 00:12:20,920 --> 00:12:24,280 Speaker 1: sixteen twenty five noted that the parish of Bennett's Grace 200 00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:28,840 Speaker 1: Church had forty eight deaths, sixteen from plague. The parish 201 00:12:28,880 --> 00:12:31,840 Speaker 1: of Martin's a Ludgate had two hundred and fifty four 202 00:12:31,880 --> 00:12:34,920 Speaker 1: deaths one hundred and sixty four from plague, et cetera. 203 00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:38,360 Speaker 1: The sixteen thirty two report that compiled the numbers by 204 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:41,520 Speaker 1: cause of death listed six hundred and twenty eight deaths 205 00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:46,000 Speaker 1: from old age, one thousand, seven hundred ninety seven from consumption, 206 00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:50,800 Speaker 1: thirty eight executions of which thirteen were pressed to death, 207 00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:55,240 Speaker 1: thirty eight from purples and spotted fever, and six as 208 00:12:55,320 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 1: quotes dead in the street and starved. There are of 209 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:02,120 Speaker 1: course more entries in both of these sample lists, as 210 00:13:02,160 --> 00:13:04,640 Speaker 1: well as other lists, but this gifts just a sense 211 00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:08,160 Speaker 1: of how basic these numbers were and in addition to 212 00:13:08,160 --> 00:13:11,720 Speaker 1: that simplicity, there was also a question regarding the accuracy 213 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:15,440 Speaker 1: of the numbers. Yeah, we'll talk about that qu a 214 00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:18,480 Speaker 1: bit more. When Grant decided that he wanted to make 215 00:13:18,520 --> 00:13:21,720 Speaker 1: an earnest study of this material, he only worked with 216 00:13:21,760 --> 00:13:24,960 Speaker 1: the consistently published list from late sixteen oh three on. 217 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:28,840 Speaker 1: There might actually be a minor bit of scandal regarding 218 00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 1: his work with these records. According to Robert Cargan, writing 219 00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:35,080 Speaker 1: for the Journal of the History of Medicine and Allied 220 00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:39,160 Speaker 1: Sciences in nineteen sixty three, quote, it is unknown how 221 00:13:39,200 --> 00:13:42,600 Speaker 1: the publication of the bills fared under the Commonwealth. The 222 00:13:42,640 --> 00:13:46,839 Speaker 1: parish clerk's registers before sixteen sixty four are missing, having 223 00:13:46,880 --> 00:13:50,120 Speaker 1: been loaned to Grant for his studies and never returned. 224 00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:54,120 Speaker 1: I will say there is also a chunk kind of 225 00:13:54,120 --> 00:13:56,800 Speaker 1: in the middle of that sixteen o three to sixteen 226 00:13:57,320 --> 00:14:00,360 Speaker 1: sixty when he was working, that he discarded because there 227 00:14:00,440 --> 00:14:03,920 Speaker 1: was some inconsistency and irregularity in him. But in sixteen 228 00:14:03,960 --> 00:14:07,760 Speaker 1: sixty two Grant published his assessment of all of this information, 229 00:14:08,080 --> 00:14:10,479 Speaker 1: of which there's a lot. We read a tiny smattering, 230 00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:14,920 Speaker 1: but like pages and pages and pages of lists. The 231 00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:17,040 Speaker 1: book that he created out of all of this was 232 00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:21,200 Speaker 1: natural and political observations made upon the Bills of Mortality. 233 00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:23,840 Speaker 1: It was the only book he ever published, but it 234 00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:27,120 Speaker 1: became the foundation of a really significant shift in the 235 00:14:27,120 --> 00:14:32,040 Speaker 1: way that people thought about population statistics. The inspiration for 236 00:14:32,080 --> 00:14:35,200 Speaker 1: this effort has been a matter of debate for centuries. 237 00:14:35,760 --> 00:14:39,200 Speaker 1: Often William Petty is credited with giving Grant the idea, 238 00:14:39,680 --> 00:14:42,800 Speaker 1: but every source that says so seems to be pulling 239 00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:46,560 Speaker 1: from that John Aubrey biography, which we know might not 240 00:14:46,640 --> 00:14:50,680 Speaker 1: always be accurate. Grant himself gave the reason he started 241 00:14:50,720 --> 00:14:55,040 Speaker 1: examining all the data in the preface to his book, quote, 242 00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:58,040 Speaker 1: having been born and bred in the city of London, 243 00:14:58,400 --> 00:15:01,960 Speaker 1: and having always observed the most of them who constantly 244 00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:05,200 Speaker 1: took in the weekly Bills of Mortality, made little other 245 00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:07,920 Speaker 1: use of them than to look at the foot how 246 00:15:07,960 --> 00:15:12,000 Speaker 1: the burials increased or decreased, and among the casualties, what 247 00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:15,080 Speaker 1: had happened rare and extraordinary in the week of the current, 248 00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:18,160 Speaker 1: so they might take the same as a text to 249 00:15:18,280 --> 00:15:21,440 Speaker 1: talk about in the next company and withal in the 250 00:15:21,480 --> 00:15:25,520 Speaker 1: plague time, how the sickness increased or decreased, That so 251 00:15:25,720 --> 00:15:29,160 Speaker 1: the rich might judge of the necessity of their removal, 252 00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:33,000 Speaker 1: and tradesmen might conjecture what doings they were like to 253 00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:36,640 Speaker 1: have in their respective dealings. Now I thought that the 254 00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:41,000 Speaker 1: wisdom of our city had certainly designed the laudable practice 255 00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:44,720 Speaker 1: of taking and distributing these accompts for other and greater 256 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:48,080 Speaker 1: uses than those above mentioned, or at least that some 257 00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:52,200 Speaker 1: other uses might be made of them. And thereupon, I, 258 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:55,680 Speaker 1: casting mine eye upon so many of the general bills 259 00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:59,920 Speaker 1: as next came to hand, I found encouragement from them 260 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:03,200 Speaker 1: to look out all the bills I could, and to 261 00:16:03,320 --> 00:16:06,760 Speaker 1: be short to furnish myself with as much matter of 262 00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:10,240 Speaker 1: that kind, even as the hall of the parish clerks 263 00:16:10,280 --> 00:16:13,480 Speaker 1: could afford me the which when I had reduced to 264 00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:16,720 Speaker 1: into tables, so as to have a view of the 265 00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:20,880 Speaker 1: whole together, in order to the more ready comparing of 266 00:16:21,000 --> 00:16:24,960 Speaker 1: one year season perish or other division of the city 267 00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:30,040 Speaker 1: with another. So to translate that somewhat stilted and run 268 00:16:30,080 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 1: on passage which Tracy just good naturedly worked her way through, 269 00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:37,560 Speaker 1: uh Grant realized even people who read those reports every 270 00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:39,400 Speaker 1: week were kind of just doing so. To look at 271 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 1: the death totals so that they'd have something to talk 272 00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:44,240 Speaker 1: about or to see if they should get out of 273 00:16:44,280 --> 00:16:47,880 Speaker 1: town because things were getting dire with something. He had 274 00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:50,640 Speaker 1: thought that the city government might be using that information 275 00:16:50,760 --> 00:16:53,440 Speaker 1: in some way, but realized no one was really tracking 276 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 1: the data in ways that might show patterns or change 277 00:16:56,640 --> 00:16:59,800 Speaker 1: over time, so he just decided to do that himself. 278 00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:03,520 Speaker 1: He does not mention his friend, Sir William Petty giving 279 00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:06,160 Speaker 1: him the idea, or in fact mention him at all. 280 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:10,359 Speaker 1: In the dedication of the book, Grant states that quote, now, 281 00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:13,879 Speaker 1: having I know not by what accident engaged my thoughts 282 00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:17,360 Speaker 1: upon the Bills of Mortality, I have presumed to sacrifice 283 00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:21,320 Speaker 1: these my small but first published labors unto your lordship. 284 00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:24,800 Speaker 1: We're going to talk about who that dedication is addressed 285 00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:27,239 Speaker 1: to in a bit, but the important thing is that 286 00:17:27,280 --> 00:17:30,720 Speaker 1: Grant characterizes his interest in the bills as an accident 287 00:17:30,800 --> 00:17:34,760 Speaker 1: that he doesn't even remember. Grant also made it clear 288 00:17:34,880 --> 00:17:37,120 Speaker 1: in his writing that he didn't want to go through 289 00:17:37,160 --> 00:17:41,160 Speaker 1: this exercise if it was not actually helpful in some way. 290 00:17:41,480 --> 00:17:46,640 Speaker 1: Quote moreover, finding some truths and not commonly believed opinions 291 00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:50,840 Speaker 1: to arise from my meditations upon these neglected papers. I 292 00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:55,080 Speaker 1: proceeded further to consider what benefit the knowledge of the 293 00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:58,000 Speaker 1: fame would bring to the world, that I might not 294 00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:02,719 Speaker 1: engage myself in idle and useless speculations, but present the 295 00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:07,159 Speaker 1: world with some real fruit from those airy blossoms. So 296 00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:10,359 Speaker 1: Grant really did want there to be some real world 297 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:14,560 Speaker 1: benefit from this whole exercise. And Grant lays out some 298 00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:17,720 Speaker 1: of the accuracy problems that we mentioned a few moments 299 00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 1: ago in his writing, noting that the searchers who collected 300 00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:25,919 Speaker 1: this information may be quote, perhaps ignorant and careless in 301 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:29,919 Speaker 1: their work, which apparently was a known problem. There was 302 00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:33,240 Speaker 1: not really a system of fact checking their numbers or 303 00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:37,680 Speaker 1: what information they included in their reports. Additionally, Grant notes 304 00:18:37,720 --> 00:18:40,879 Speaker 1: that these women would sometimes take favors or bribes to 305 00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:43,879 Speaker 1: record a cause of death as a less embarrassing or 306 00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:47,159 Speaker 1: scandalous one than the deceased family may have found it. 307 00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:51,000 Speaker 1: A significant example for this was syphilis that was recorded 308 00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:54,640 Speaker 1: in the bills under the title French pox, but according 309 00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:57,760 Speaker 1: to Grant, the searchers, after quote the mist of a 310 00:18:57,800 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 1: cup of ale and the bribe of a two grin fee, 311 00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:06,040 Speaker 1: would record that death instead as consumption. Another problem was 312 00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:08,439 Speaker 1: that the way these numbers were laid out left a 313 00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:12,879 Speaker 1: lot of information to just be assumed or interpreted. Grant 314 00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:15,160 Speaker 1: noted that when a person was said to have died 315 00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:19,000 Speaker 1: of old age, it doesn't give information regarding what that 316 00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:22,800 Speaker 1: age was or whether there may have been some specific 317 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:27,240 Speaker 1: condition involved. There are also no specifics of what qualifies 318 00:19:27,320 --> 00:19:31,560 Speaker 1: a child to be categorized as an infant. But Grant 319 00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:34,040 Speaker 1: seems to have come to the conclusion that the records 320 00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:38,320 Speaker 1: submitted by the searchers are probably relatively accurate in terms 321 00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:42,240 Speaker 1: of cause of death because he believes they consulted physicians 322 00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:45,359 Speaker 1: and also use their own judgment. But he also notes 323 00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:49,800 Speaker 1: that not all diseases present in obvious ways, so said 324 00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:53,639 Speaker 1: deaths might be difficult to report accurately regarding their cause. 325 00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:57,040 Speaker 1: He lays all this out to explain the way he's 326 00:19:57,040 --> 00:20:00,800 Speaker 1: approaching these numbers for comparisons. He's clear that there are 327 00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:03,919 Speaker 1: places where he has to operate on assumption and that 328 00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:09,000 Speaker 1: he welcomes criticism. Yeah. I was reading a modern take 329 00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:10,960 Speaker 1: on some of it, and they put it very gingerly 330 00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:14,040 Speaker 1: by saying like he does a bit too much smoothing 331 00:20:14,119 --> 00:20:16,440 Speaker 1: at times. I was like, that's a perfect way to 332 00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:19,120 Speaker 1: put it, we are going to get into the various 333 00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:22,800 Speaker 1: conclusions that Grant drew from analyzing the Bills of Mortality, 334 00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:25,159 Speaker 1: as well as talk about the later part of his life, 335 00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:27,280 Speaker 1: and we'll do that after we hear from the sponsors 336 00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:40,000 Speaker 1: that keep the show going. In his writing, John Grant 337 00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:43,639 Speaker 1: draws some conclusions outside of just crunching numbers, some of 338 00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:46,600 Speaker 1: which are debatable but show that he is thinking about 339 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:50,560 Speaker 1: ways of applying all of this information. For instance, he 340 00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:53,719 Speaker 1: notes that there are very few deaths from starvation, but 341 00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:56,919 Speaker 1: that London has a lot of people panhandling and begging 342 00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:59,520 Speaker 1: for food, and he wonders quote that it were better 343 00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:03,159 Speaker 1: to maintain all beggars at the public charge, though earning nothing, 344 00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:05,679 Speaker 1: than to let them beg about the streets, and that 345 00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:09,480 Speaker 1: employing them without discretion may do more harm than good. 346 00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:13,600 Speaker 1: He doesn't elaborate, so it's unclear if he means to 347 00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:16,040 Speaker 1: make these people wards of the state or provide for 348 00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:19,280 Speaker 1: them in some other way, but he's basically saying like, 349 00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:21,240 Speaker 1: you can't just hire them into jobs because they might 350 00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:22,720 Speaker 1: not know what they're doing and it could cause a 351 00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:26,800 Speaker 1: lot of problems. He also noted that Ricketts as Tracy 352 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:30,359 Speaker 1: mentioned earlier had risen over the years, seemingly popping up 353 00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:33,119 Speaker 1: out of nowhere, asking in his work quote now, the 354 00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:37,000 Speaker 1: question is whether that disease did first appear about that time, 355 00:21:37,560 --> 00:21:40,880 Speaker 1: or whether a disease which had been long before did 356 00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:45,879 Speaker 1: then first receive its name. Then identified other diseases like 357 00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:49,119 Speaker 1: liver grown that were dropping off the list in frequency 358 00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:52,199 Speaker 1: and that had probably been rickets before that disease had 359 00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:56,520 Speaker 1: been better understood and more consistently diagnosed. There were a 360 00:21:56,600 --> 00:21:59,160 Speaker 1: number of ways in which the way John Grant looked 361 00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:02,280 Speaker 1: at the numbers the bills of mortality that contradicted a 362 00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:06,040 Speaker 1: lot of commonly held beliefs. If you had asked most 363 00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:10,520 Speaker 1: Londoners in sixteen sixty how the population was divided between 364 00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:13,040 Speaker 1: men and women, most probably would have told you there 365 00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:16,840 Speaker 1: were three women to every man. This is something that 366 00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:20,560 Speaker 1: was routinely stated. But when Grant actually looked at the 367 00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:24,600 Speaker 1: numbers of male and female babies born, combined with the 368 00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:29,280 Speaker 1: mortality rates, he discovered that more male babies than female 369 00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:32,800 Speaker 1: babies were born, they also had a higher mortality rate, 370 00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:36,320 Speaker 1: and that when comparing that information to adult deaths, the 371 00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:41,560 Speaker 1: population was actually divided almost evenly, but slightly skewed higher 372 00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:45,000 Speaker 1: in men in the country, with sixteen men to every 373 00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:49,320 Speaker 1: fifteen women. In the city proper, there were thirteen women 374 00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:54,440 Speaker 1: for every fourteen men. He also calculated the population of London, 375 00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:57,080 Speaker 1: creating a piece of data that had been elusive for 376 00:22:57,119 --> 00:23:02,160 Speaker 1: a long time due to rudimentary reporting practices. There were 377 00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:05,240 Speaker 1: rumors that he talks about that there were as many 378 00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:07,840 Speaker 1: as two million people in London, and he didn't think 379 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:10,360 Speaker 1: that was right, so he really wanted to focus on this. 380 00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:14,199 Speaker 1: Based on available death and household numbers, which were not 381 00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:17,920 Speaker 1: comprehensive for the entire city but were in some areas, 382 00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:22,280 Speaker 1: Grant calculated that for every eleven families in London, there 383 00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:26,480 Speaker 1: were three deaths per year. Using those numbers, he looked 384 00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:28,879 Speaker 1: at the total average of deaths per year in the 385 00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:33,080 Speaker 1: city according to the Bill's immortality that was thirteen thousand, 386 00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:35,800 Speaker 1: and then using those numbers, he could calculate that there 387 00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:39,439 Speaker 1: were forty six thousand, six hundred sixty seven households in 388 00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:43,440 Speaker 1: the city. He used the assumption of eight members per 389 00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:47,040 Speaker 1: household based on averages plus the rate of population increased 390 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:49,919 Speaker 1: through average number of people moving into the city to 391 00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:52,919 Speaker 1: land at a total of three hundred eighty four thousand people, 392 00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:56,760 Speaker 1: one hundred ninety nine thousand, one hundred twelve male, one 393 00:23:56,840 --> 00:24:00,600 Speaker 1: hundred eighty four thousand, eight hundred eighty six female. He 394 00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:03,280 Speaker 1: then cross checked his own work by using different numbers 395 00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:07,280 Speaker 1: from the table to calculate the population in multiple different ways. 396 00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:11,400 Speaker 1: He also noted that death rates were higher in the 397 00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:14,520 Speaker 1: city than in the more rural parishes, with more people 398 00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:17,800 Speaker 1: per one hundred surviving past the age of seventy in 399 00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:20,840 Speaker 1: the country. This led him to conclude that the country 400 00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:25,040 Speaker 1: was quote more healthful than the city. His research noted 401 00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:28,280 Speaker 1: that chronic diseases tended to have stable rates of death, 402 00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:33,280 Speaker 1: whereas contagious diseases had greater fluctuation by season and location. 403 00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:37,600 Speaker 1: As for the city being a more dangerous place, Grant 404 00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:41,720 Speaker 1: identified one of the big problems, which was overcrowding. He wrote, 405 00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:45,760 Speaker 1: quote London, the metropolis of England is perhaps head too 406 00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:49,359 Speaker 1: big for the body, and possibly too strong. That this 407 00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:52,720 Speaker 1: head grows three times as fast as the body unto 408 00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:55,960 Speaker 1: which it belongs, that is, it doubles its people in 409 00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:59,879 Speaker 1: third part of the time. He notes that the street 410 00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:03,480 Speaker 1: were not big or stable enough for the many carriages 411 00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:05,560 Speaker 1: that passed through them, and that the way that that 412 00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:08,520 Speaker 1: he had been organized in its earlier years just did 413 00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:11,879 Speaker 1: not suit its needs anymore. Yeah, at this point it 414 00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:15,520 Speaker 1: was still very much laid out in its medieval form, 415 00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:17,879 Speaker 1: and it was becoming like it was just on the 416 00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:21,080 Speaker 1: cusp of getting into industrialization, and like I was not 417 00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:24,159 Speaker 1: cutting it. He also came up with a life table 418 00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:27,480 Speaker 1: that showed the statistics of deaths based on age over time. 419 00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:31,000 Speaker 1: This is something that is like the foundation of demography, 420 00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:33,800 Speaker 1: and though these exact numbers aren't used all the time, 421 00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:37,320 Speaker 1: the concept is this was very basic. It gave the 422 00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:40,160 Speaker 1: information that out of one hundred berths, which he called 423 00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:44,080 Speaker 1: quick conceptions, thirty six people will have died before the 424 00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:47,280 Speaker 1: age of six, then twenty four more in the decade 425 00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:50,920 Speaker 1: that follows, fifteen more in the decade after that, and 426 00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:55,160 Speaker 1: so on and so on. In his estimation, only one 427 00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:58,359 Speaker 1: could reasonably be expected to survive to the age of 428 00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:02,080 Speaker 1: seventy six. But though this was interesting and he developed 429 00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:05,000 Speaker 1: a distribution formula to arrive at these numbers, it was 430 00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:07,840 Speaker 1: also a good bit of guesswork. It was in reference 431 00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:09,560 Speaker 1: to this that I saw someone in right Lake. He 432 00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:12,600 Speaker 1: did a bit too much smoothing. He also noted that 433 00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:15,560 Speaker 1: this isn't a precise model, but quote that the numbers 434 00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:19,479 Speaker 1: following are practically near enough to the truth. Men do 435 00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:24,800 Speaker 1: not die in exact proportion nor infractions. Working from that table, 436 00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:28,520 Speaker 1: he described the population in percentages, stating that quote it 437 00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:31,560 Speaker 1: follows also that of all which have been conceived, there 438 00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:36,040 Speaker 1: are now alive forty percent above sixteen years old, twenty 439 00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:40,080 Speaker 1: five above twenty six years old, et ce. Grant's book, 440 00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:43,200 Speaker 1: relaying all this information and the ways he had used 441 00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:47,679 Speaker 1: the basic bills of mortality to extrapolate a numerical assessment 442 00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:51,000 Speaker 1: of London, was only ninety seven pages long, but it 443 00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:54,639 Speaker 1: had a massive impact. He submitted fifty copies of his 444 00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:57,919 Speaker 1: book to the Royal Society for members to read. He 445 00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:00,600 Speaker 1: had also dedicated the book to the President of the 446 00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:03,840 Speaker 1: Royal Society, Sir Robert Moray, which was a really a 447 00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:09,480 Speaker 1: stup move. Physician doctor Daniel Whistler nominated Grant for membership 448 00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:13,000 Speaker 1: in the Society. This was a pretty unusual situation and 449 00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:16,399 Speaker 1: it shows just how important the Society thought his work was. 450 00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:20,760 Speaker 1: Grant wasn't a scientist, and he wasn't from the aristocracy. 451 00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:24,520 Speaker 1: He was a tradesman who hadn't attended a university, so 452 00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:27,119 Speaker 1: not at all the kind of person who was expected 453 00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:29,840 Speaker 1: to be a member of the Royal Society. But the 454 00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:32,879 Speaker 1: Royal Society was also quite new, having been founded in 455 00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:36,400 Speaker 1: sixteen sixty, so it wasn't as though his nomination broke 456 00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:41,240 Speaker 1: decades of tradition. King Charles the Scond supported his application 457 00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:44,359 Speaker 1: and made a statement that if the Royal Society found 458 00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:47,919 Speaker 1: any more tradesmen like Grant, they should admit them as well. 459 00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:53,080 Speaker 1: Grant was indeed made a fellow. He published several editions 460 00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:56,840 Speaker 1: in the following years, updating the tables each time he 461 00:27:57,000 --> 00:28:01,400 Speaker 1: learned new information that led to refined numbers. He notated 462 00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:05,200 Speaker 1: the ways he had estimated things incorrectly in earlier versions, 463 00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:09,280 Speaker 1: like supposing that households had an average of eight people 464 00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:14,199 Speaker 1: when five was really more accurate. Because of all of 465 00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:17,920 Speaker 1: this work, Grant is frequently called the father of demography, 466 00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:22,480 Speaker 1: so anytime someone is referencing demographics, they're referencing his work, 467 00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:26,880 Speaker 1: at least indirectly. Other prominent thinkers of Grant's day were 468 00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:30,280 Speaker 1: influenced by his work and continued it or adapted it 469 00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:34,960 Speaker 1: into their own fields. France began its own similar record keeping. 470 00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:38,520 Speaker 1: After Grant's work became known and his friend Sir William 471 00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:41,680 Speaker 1: Petty used the example Grant had set to start looking 472 00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:44,640 Speaker 1: at the ways that death related to economic loss within 473 00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:49,000 Speaker 1: a community. He published his work Essays in Political Arithmetic 474 00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:53,200 Speaker 1: and Political Survey or Anatomy of Ireland in sixteen seventy two, 475 00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:56,120 Speaker 1: after building on the work that Grant had done in London. 476 00:28:57,000 --> 00:29:00,760 Speaker 1: That work launched a wave of probability mathematic and while 477 00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:03,800 Speaker 1: its flaws are recognized, the concepts of it are still 478 00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:07,760 Speaker 1: in use today. Just three years after Grant's book was 479 00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:11,920 Speaker 1: first published, London experienced a surgeon plague, which is commonly 480 00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:15,480 Speaker 1: known as the Great Plague of sixteen sixty five. Grant's 481 00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:18,760 Speaker 1: updated numbers regarding the size of the population that year, 482 00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:21,560 Speaker 1: which he thought maxed out at four hundred and sixty thousand, 483 00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:24,520 Speaker 1: is one of the only ways to really know today 484 00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:28,600 Speaker 1: just how impactful the death toll was that is usually 485 00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:31,800 Speaker 1: estimated to be around one hundred thousand people over the 486 00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:35,520 Speaker 1: course of a year and a half. In sixteen sixty six, 487 00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:39,240 Speaker 1: London experienced the Great Fire and Grant was hit very 488 00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:42,520 Speaker 1: hard by it. His house in a shop burned down. 489 00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:46,760 Speaker 1: Petty helped finance the rebuilding of Grant's home, but he 490 00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:49,640 Speaker 1: never really financially recovered and he had to sell his 491 00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:53,240 Speaker 1: remaining property, some of it to Petty, and he may 492 00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:56,680 Speaker 1: have declared bankruptcy. This is another thing that the Aubrey 493 00:29:56,680 --> 00:30:01,720 Speaker 1: account says, but there's no documentation to back it up. However, 494 00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:05,800 Speaker 1: a lot of documents were destroyed in that fire, and 495 00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:08,320 Speaker 1: Grant's work is some of the only way that we 496 00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:11,040 Speaker 1: know about numbers in London at the time, because everything 497 00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:15,280 Speaker 1: else burned. But Grant and Petty started to have some 498 00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:18,760 Speaker 1: disagreements over money that really shifted the dynamic of their 499 00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:22,880 Speaker 1: friendship at this time. During this time of uncertainty, Grant 500 00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:25,600 Speaker 1: became a Roman Catholic, and this was an unusual and 501 00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:30,160 Speaker 1: unpopular move during this time in England. Refusing to attend 502 00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:35,440 Speaker 1: Anglican services was considered a statutory offense. The conversion really 503 00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:38,320 Speaker 1: took a toll on what was left of his friendship 504 00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:42,480 Speaker 1: with Petty. Petty wrote to Grant in January of sixteen 505 00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:46,120 Speaker 1: seventy three, quote, as for differences in religion, you have 506 00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:50,240 Speaker 1: done a miss in sundry particulars which I need not mention, 507 00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:55,440 Speaker 1: because yourself may easily conjecture my meetings. However, we leave 508 00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:58,440 Speaker 1: these things to God and be mindful of what is 509 00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:01,600 Speaker 1: the sum of all religion, and of what is and 510 00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:06,080 Speaker 1: ever was true religion all the world over. Petty also 511 00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:09,240 Speaker 1: confided in a letter to a friend soon after, quote, 512 00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:13,600 Speaker 1: Captain Grant is now an open and zealous champion for popery. 513 00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:17,800 Speaker 1: Wherefore I have not so much intimacy with him as formerly. 514 00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:21,720 Speaker 1: We mentioned earlier in the episode that Grant was part 515 00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:24,920 Speaker 1: of an infrastructure project that brought water into the city. 516 00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:28,440 Speaker 1: That work was done by the New River Company, at 517 00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:34,000 Speaker 1: which Grant was in a managerial position. His Catholicism caused 518 00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:37,640 Speaker 1: so many problems and was so despised by many Londoners 519 00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:41,000 Speaker 1: that a rumor started that he had been, perhaps somehow 520 00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:43,760 Speaker 1: to blame for the Great Fire, and that he had 521 00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:47,240 Speaker 1: prevented water from reaching the city to douse the flames 522 00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:50,280 Speaker 1: as part of being in this role, and this actually 523 00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:53,200 Speaker 1: got him in legal trouble, although he was ultimately found 524 00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:55,680 Speaker 1: to have done no such thing. He actually was not 525 00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:59,680 Speaker 1: in that managerial position until after the fire had taken place. 526 00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:03,959 Speaker 1: Although his innocence on that matter had been proven, his 527 00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:08,600 Speaker 1: status as a Catholic continued to isolate him professionally and socially. 528 00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:11,959 Speaker 1: He was called before the court twice on the charge 529 00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:15,960 Speaker 1: of recusancy failing to attend Anglican church, and he pled 530 00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:19,719 Speaker 1: not guilty. His case was scheduled for trial and if 531 00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:22,760 Speaker 1: he was found guilty, his property would be seized by 532 00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:26,600 Speaker 1: the Crown, but that trial never happened. In the early 533 00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:31,520 Speaker 1: sixteen seventies, Grant developed liver disease. He died on April eighteenth, 534 00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:34,720 Speaker 1: seventeen sixty four before his trial date. His cause of 535 00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:38,640 Speaker 1: death is given as jaundice. He was buried at Saint 536 00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:42,880 Speaker 1: Dunstan's Church in Fleet Street. Although their relationship had suffered, 537 00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:47,160 Speaker 1: Petty attended his funeral and was deeply upset. Petty took 538 00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:50,240 Speaker 1: care of Grant's widow Mary financially in the years after this, 539 00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:55,680 Speaker 1: and now today we have actuaries. Yeah, thanks John Grant. 540 00:32:56,200 --> 00:32:59,520 Speaker 1: John Grant is mentioned in the episode that you wrote 541 00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:05,560 Speaker 1: about actuarial science. Yes, we love all of the actuaries. 542 00:33:05,760 --> 00:33:10,760 Speaker 1: We love it. I have a very fun listener mail 543 00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:17,760 Speaker 1: which also mentions and shares flowers. We'll get to it. 544 00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:21,040 Speaker 1: This from our listener, Jamie, who writes, Hi, Holly and Tracy, 545 00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:24,080 Speaker 1: I just finished your episode on James Braid and wanted 546 00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:28,560 Speaker 1: to share my experience with hypnotism. After graduating my high school, 547 00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:31,480 Speaker 1: at a party where, among other things, a hypnotist performed, 548 00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:34,520 Speaker 1: I was chosen as one of the participants. It was 549 00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:38,240 Speaker 1: an interesting experience. I remember a few things. It was 550 00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:40,959 Speaker 1: more than a few years ago now for me. I 551 00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:43,320 Speaker 1: was aware the whole time, but I just did exactly 552 00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:45,720 Speaker 1: what I thought. Like when we were told it was 553 00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:48,240 Speaker 1: very cold, I cuddled to the person next to me. 554 00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:51,080 Speaker 1: I was told to give a different name every time 555 00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:53,920 Speaker 1: the hypnotist asked my name, and it was going good 556 00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:57,360 Speaker 1: until he asked my name after someone else's who had 557 00:33:57,400 --> 00:34:01,040 Speaker 1: responded sam. My brain supplied the same name. But then 558 00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:03,280 Speaker 1: I thought I can't be Sam he is, and so 559 00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:08,000 Speaker 1: I said Samantha. My hesitation obviously showed that I was 560 00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:09,840 Speaker 1: coming out of it, so that was the end of 561 00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:12,960 Speaker 1: my part. While I was open to suggestion, I also 562 00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:16,880 Speaker 1: couldn't overcome my own strongly held beliefs. I can't imagine 563 00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:19,320 Speaker 1: how the woman whose neck was set to one side 564 00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:23,920 Speaker 1: was able to move it through hypnotism. Listen me either anyway. 565 00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:26,640 Speaker 1: As a reward for reading through all that, please enjoy 566 00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:30,160 Speaker 1: these flowers. In Pella, Iowa, there is a tulip festival. 567 00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:33,400 Speaker 1: The town plants thousands of different kinds of tulips, and 568 00:34:33,480 --> 00:34:35,640 Speaker 1: driving a few hours to see them in May is 569 00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:39,120 Speaker 1: much easier than flying to Amsterdam. I have never seen 570 00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:41,560 Speaker 1: so many different kinds, and I hope you enjoy them. 571 00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:44,359 Speaker 1: Thanks for all you do. I truly appreciate your show 572 00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:46,439 Speaker 1: and the hard work you put into it. And there 573 00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:50,000 Speaker 1: are beautiful pictures of tulips. There are some pink ones, 574 00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:54,360 Speaker 1: some orange ones, some yellow ones, and some that look black, 575 00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:57,439 Speaker 1: which I come up with, And I'm like, will those 576 00:34:57,480 --> 00:35:01,240 Speaker 1: grow in Georgia, because maybe I start planning tulips. Listen, 577 00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:04,640 Speaker 1: we love a little gothic flower in our house. I 578 00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:09,240 Speaker 1: am glad to have gotten Jamie's account of being hypnotized. Yeah, 579 00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:12,520 Speaker 1: I realized, I don't think I've ever been hypnotized. And 580 00:35:12,560 --> 00:35:15,360 Speaker 1: I'm like, would that work for me? Or would I 581 00:35:15,400 --> 00:35:17,400 Speaker 1: be a pain in the Would I be the problem 582 00:35:17,520 --> 00:35:20,759 Speaker 1: child that's like this isn't working, that tries to be 583 00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:24,560 Speaker 1: a trouble. Yeah. When I was in college, we had 584 00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:27,600 Speaker 1: a couple of you know, the things arranged by the 585 00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:31,520 Speaker 1: student affairs committee or whatever, like, yeah, whoever was arranging 586 00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:34,320 Speaker 1: entertainment on campus, and there were a couple of different 587 00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:37,760 Speaker 1: times that there was a hypnotist show, and I always 588 00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:42,120 Speaker 1: found it so fascinating what was happening, and then also 589 00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:48,200 Speaker 1: was curious of like is this actually staged or is 590 00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:52,680 Speaker 1: this really happening? Yeah, which was going on during James 591 00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:55,120 Speaker 1: Braid's time as well. Correct. If you would like to 592 00:35:55,160 --> 00:35:57,879 Speaker 1: email us to tell us about your experience with hypnotism 593 00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:01,120 Speaker 1: or with tulips or your pets or whatever you wish, 594 00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:05,120 Speaker 1: you could do that at History podcast at iHeartRadio dot com. 595 00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:07,680 Speaker 1: If you would like to read the show notes, those 596 00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:10,719 Speaker 1: are available at mystonhistory dot com. We put them up 597 00:36:10,760 --> 00:36:13,640 Speaker 1: for every episode we do. And if you have not 598 00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:15,719 Speaker 1: subscribed to the podcast and you would like to, you 599 00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:18,200 Speaker 1: can do that on the iHeartRadio app or anywhere you 600 00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:26,560 Speaker 1: listen to your favorite shows. Stuff you Missed in History 601 00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:30,959 Speaker 1: Class is a production of iHeartRadio. For more podcasts from iHeartRadio, 602 00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:34,720 Speaker 1: visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen 603 00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:37,600 Speaker 1: to your favorite shows.