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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. Today

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Speaker 1: is our NFL Playoffs Conference Championship preview, the Tuesday NFL episode.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action

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Speaker 1: Network and incredible final four set for the conference title games.

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Speaker 1: We got the Ravens, the presumptive NFL MVP and quarterback

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Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson, against the defending champs and Patrick Mahomes and

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Speaker 1: the Taylor Swift Army in the Chiefs, the number one

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Speaker 1: seed in the NFC, one of the most potent offenses

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Speaker 1: in the NFL in the forty nine Ers against everyone's

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Speaker 1: favorite Cinderell Story, the Detroit Rock City Lions, and and Campbell.

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Speaker 1: On today's show, we will of course get to our

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Speaker 1: Simon says, our exact decision. On Thursday, we will finalise

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Speaker 1: our big Balls bet of the week, our Foxhall and

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Speaker 1: our money line parlay. Now, let's bring in my co host,

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Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, my capadre professional better Simon Hunter

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Speaker 1: and as hoy Man.

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Speaker 2: Hello, hot shot, how we doing, my eye?

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Speaker 1: Brother? We are wiping the slate clean from last week.

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Speaker 1: We are looking ahead of the games. We put our

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Speaker 1: big boy handicapping pants on. We are ready to rock

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Speaker 1: en roll. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented

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Speaker 1: by Bet three sixty five. Bet three sixty five doesn't

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Speaker 1: odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance

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Speaker 1: why it's never ordinary. A Bet three sixty five must

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Speaker 1: be twenty one or older and president in Colorado, Iowa,

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Speaker 1: Louisiana and New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, or eighteen and older

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Speaker 1: in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or

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Speaker 1: one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. Also,

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Speaker 1: catch every episode of The Favorites live on YouTube. For

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Speaker 1: those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to subscribe and give

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Speaker 1: us a like. We are the Action Network YouTube page. Brother,

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Speaker 1: There's only so many games to talk about. Right now.

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Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore Ravens are three and

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Speaker 1: a half point favorites. The Chiefs are in their sixth

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Speaker 1: consecutive conference championship game, too, shy of New England's record

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Speaker 1: for consecutive conference title games when they made eight from

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Speaker 1: two thousan at eleven to twenty eighteen. All Right, this one,

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Speaker 1: as they like to say, is painted across the board.

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Speaker 1: You liked it at three on Sunday night. Think you

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Speaker 1: also liked you liked it at three and a half

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Speaker 1: on Sunday night. We're hoping people would look around for three.

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Speaker 1: It got there for about twenty four hours. Now it's

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Speaker 1: back at three and a half. You're still there, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: still there.

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Speaker 2: And obviously we're gonna break down this game a ton

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Speaker 2: this week, but it's it's definitely a scary bet chat

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Speaker 2: we talked a little bit about what came on where

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Speaker 2: it's just like, how are you not terrified to be

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Speaker 2: against my home especially after last week where it's like,

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Speaker 2: you know, we left them for dead. I really did

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Speaker 2: not believe that they would be able to do what

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Speaker 2: they did last week. So I'm just trying not to overreact.

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Speaker 2: To and that's the hardest part about gambling and my

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Speaker 2: favorite part where it's like we had a week from

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Speaker 2: hell last week, it's irrelevant. You're on to the next

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Speaker 2: week and it's all about this upcoming week. And Sam

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Speaker 2: goes when we have the best week ever, when we

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Speaker 2: go four and oh, it's like, doesn't matter. On to

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Speaker 2: the next week. And that's how I feel that this week,

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Speaker 2: where it's like I'm trying not to overreact to what

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Speaker 2: happened last week. With this Chiefs team, it's like there's

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Speaker 2: still little problems that you can notice with that team.

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Speaker 2: They're just not the same Chiefs. But the fear is

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Speaker 2: Mahomes takes it to another level that you know, we

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Speaker 2: only ever seen one other quarterback in my lifetime take

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Speaker 2: it to that level, which is the Brady, which is

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Speaker 2: anytime you have a lead against them, you never feel safe.

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Speaker 2: Like even at that halftime, I think it was seventeen

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Speaker 2: thirteen with the Bills, it's like, well, Mahomes is getting

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Speaker 2: the ball to start the second half like this. You

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Speaker 2: just never feel comfortable against Mahome, especially in the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: So this is a tough bet and I bet that.

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Speaker 2: I mean, as soon as we got done our Sunday show.

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Speaker 2: I think I got four phone calls from different pros

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Speaker 2: being like you're a fucking fool, Like how you're going

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Speaker 2: to against Mahomes again? Didn't you learn your lesson? Like

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Speaker 2: this is easy money, Like we just keep betting Mahomes

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Speaker 2: of the dog and we keep winning. And what am

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Speaker 2: I going to say back to that? Cause it's like

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Speaker 2: I've bet Mahomes of the dog. I love that trend

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Speaker 2: and it's awesome. It's like I just I can't look

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Speaker 2: past how bad they've been this year and that they

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Speaker 2: already had three more guys get hurt on that defense

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Speaker 2: against that Bills team, Like now they're down even more

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Speaker 2: guys going against the Ravens team that we already talked about.

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Speaker 2: They're getting healthier, like they're getting Humphrey back, they're getting

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Speaker 2: Mark Andrews back, Like how are these not huge deals?

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Speaker 2: Like how are these not worth? How are these two

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Speaker 2: guys too? Pro Bowler is not worth at least half

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Speaker 2: a point to the spread? So think the number is right?

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Speaker 2: Like to me, I told giant model this at four,

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Speaker 2: But I say all the time in the playoffs, you

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Speaker 2: can say, well forget your model, Like what do you

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Speaker 2: actually think of this game? And it's like, I think

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Speaker 2: three three and a half just feels right, like that's

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Speaker 2: where it should be. The public professionals will come in

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Speaker 2: on this Ravens team at three and then if it

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Speaker 2: goes at three and a half, four, come on, we

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Speaker 2: already know the deal. Eighty percent of all the money,

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Speaker 2: everything that's gonna be bet on this game will happened

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Speaker 2: between Saturday and Sunday night, Like all the money will

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Speaker 2: come in very late. Where do you think all the

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Speaker 2: money's gonna go. It's going to go on this Chiefs

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Speaker 2: team at a dog number. Like the fact that it's

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Speaker 2: three and a half it kind of lets you know that, like, okay,

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Speaker 2: the books they've taken the Ravens money. Now they'll just

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Speaker 2: wait and take a ton of Chiefs money. Because it's

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Speaker 2: what we talk about all the time. Mahomes, if you

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Speaker 2: bet him as a dog, you're always going to be

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Speaker 2: in it. It doesn't matter if his team is down. What

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Speaker 2: was it to Houston? Chat was it twenty eight to

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Speaker 2: three or twenty one to three? They were down and

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Speaker 2: Mahomes came all the way back against Houston and Watson

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Speaker 2: years ago. It's like it doesn't matter how many points

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Speaker 2: he gets down, He's always going to be in it.

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Speaker 2: So I totally get people's rationale for taking him as

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Speaker 2: a dog and playing it simple. I just I think

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Speaker 2: the Ravens are that legit team and they have the

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Speaker 2: defense that matches up really well with the Chiefs. Like

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Speaker 2: there's only a couple of teams that could match up

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Speaker 2: for what the Chiefs want to do, and the Raiders

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Speaker 2: were one of them. The Raiders were incredible playing against

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Speaker 2: Mahomes and matchup well against But I think the same

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Speaker 2: thing here with the Ravens, Like the more I break down,

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Speaker 2: there's Ravens defense on tape. I mean you talked about

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Speaker 2: it on Sunny, like having the linebackers, for having Patrick

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Speaker 2: Queen back there, you know, having Rokwan Smith. Those are

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Speaker 2: game changers. But then the Kyle Hamilton X factor to

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Speaker 2: me is the difference in this game where it's like

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Speaker 2: they're gonna be able to dictate this whole game by

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Speaker 2: moving him around and positioning him in different spots, either

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Speaker 2: bringing him in as a blitzer, having him cover Travis Kelcey,

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Speaker 2: like it's all lined up there, where the Bills just

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Speaker 2: did not have that. The Bills had a fifteen year

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Speaker 2: veteran playing at the linebacker position that was not a starter, right,

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Speaker 2: it was a fifteen year veteran that was like a

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Speaker 2: practice squad kind of guy that he just knew the defense.

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Speaker 2: That's why the Bills had to play in there. So

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Speaker 2: it's really night and day going from that Bill's defense

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Speaker 2: to this this Ravens defense. So we already know all

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Speaker 2: the Lamar stuff. I'm just I'm trying to convince not

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Speaker 2: only myself but everyone else that this bet really is

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Speaker 2: about backing this Ravens defense. Like to me, they're they're

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Speaker 2: the game changer in this scenario, not so much. Well,

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Speaker 2: Lamar and that offense is gonna do we know the

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Speaker 2: Lamar and then we're gonna be able to run the

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Speaker 2: ball against his Chiefs defense, like they just can't stop

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Speaker 2: the run. It's really can we get stops? We need

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Speaker 2: stops against Mahomes. Like, if you can't get stops Mahomes

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Speaker 2: and Andy Reith, I'll just play the clock, right, they

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Speaker 2: know that. Okay, if you guys are up three or

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Speaker 2: if we're down by three, you know, here with two

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Speaker 2: minutes to go, we have faith in Mahomes to drive

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Speaker 2: the field and either tie this game or get us

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Speaker 2: the win. So that's the fear here is We're backing

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Speaker 2: a big favorite, I mean not that big, but pretty

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Speaker 2: big against Mahomes. And you know that if Mahomes has

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Speaker 2: the ball last, I mean, you're gonna be white as help.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna be so scared that Mahomes is about to

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Speaker 2: do it to us again. But I'm just stressing the

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Speaker 2: number here.

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Speaker 1: Hold on number one. I've never seen you more anxious

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Speaker 1: about a bet like I know this one is scaring

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Speaker 1: you a little bit. I know you feel strongly about it.

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Speaker 1: I can feel it in like the way you're talking

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Speaker 1: about the game and the way you're laying out the to.

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Speaker 2: Be on Mahomes. I actually want to bet on Mahomes. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I know it sucks.

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Speaker 1: Well, look this is this is We're just trying to

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Speaker 1: get off the wave before it crashes, right, And I'll

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Speaker 1: be honest, I have not bet this game yet. I

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Speaker 1: am so on the fence about this game, and because

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Speaker 1: I am desperately afraid of Patrick Mahomes at anything more

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Speaker 1: than a field goal. And this is the classic rock

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Speaker 1: and a hard Place, right. Lamar Jackson last weekend accepted

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Speaker 1: as a fave of three and a half or more

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Speaker 1: forty two percent against the spread, one hundred and seventy

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Speaker 1: four of one hundred and eighty one, one hundred and

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Speaker 1: seventy fourth of one hundred and eighty one quarterbacks against

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Speaker 1: the spread the past twenty years when he is a

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Speaker 1: favorite of three or more. But he dominated the Texans

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Speaker 1: as a huge, huge fave, we were betting against it.

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Speaker 1: So has he gotten over the hump? Was it just

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Speaker 1: the right spot? Will he revert back to his old ways? Meanwhile, Mahomes,

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Speaker 1: we were convinced last weekend was the time, except for

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Speaker 1: those pesky linebacker situations right where the Chiefs might be

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Speaker 1: the strongest. We were convinced Mahomes was going to lose

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Speaker 1: that game and he was not going to cover. He's

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Speaker 1: now been an underdog in eleven games, including the postseason,

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Speaker 1: eight and three straight up nine to one to one

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Speaker 1: against the spread, two and zero in the playoffs. Like,

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Speaker 1: there is nothing scarier as a better than being a

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Speaker 1: we're gonna get to the defense. I got a lot

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Speaker 1: to say about the Ravens defense. There's nothing scarier as

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Speaker 1: a better than being against Patrick Mahomes and seeing him

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Speaker 1: step up in the pocket and not being able to

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Speaker 1: know exactly what's going to happen next, you know what

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Speaker 1: I mean.

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Speaker 2: No, he's he's the best I pocket quarterback we've ever

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Speaker 2: seen like that. I think I saw some staff from

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Speaker 2: somebody that he's had three straight games now of no

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Speaker 2: sacks and no interceptions. Like he's just he's on another

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Speaker 2: level right now. And even when the Bills did make

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Speaker 2: the right call and the right blitz package, he would

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Speaker 2: just so nonchalantly see it coming, step up in the

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Speaker 2: pocket and just get out of there. It's like incredible,

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Speaker 2: how how well he's been playing. Evan had another amazing

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Speaker 2: stat on Sunday Night Show that he has been down

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Speaker 2: by seven plus points like ten times in the playoffs

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Speaker 2: and he's eight and two in those games, the only

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Speaker 2: two losses whereas against Tom Brady. So it's like every

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Speaker 2: little stat, every metric we go through is basically telling

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Speaker 2: us don't be an idiot and don't bet against this guy.

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Speaker 2: But it's just I have to trust the numbers. It's

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Speaker 2: like it's so full to do, but I gotta do it.

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Speaker 2: And you just said it right where It's like when

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Speaker 2: is the peak here for this Chiefs team? Like they're

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Speaker 2: playing so far above what they should be doing. Right,

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Speaker 2: we know who this team is, We've saw them all season,

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Speaker 2: how they've struggled. But this Mahomes and the playoffs, it

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Speaker 2: is just different, right, Like we talk all the time,

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Speaker 2: it is different in the playoffs. He's just been incredible.

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Speaker 2: So like, like again you say we're gonna break down

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Speaker 2: this Ravens team and their defense, it really is what

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Speaker 2: I'm all in on. It's like I really have to

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Speaker 2: do believe in this defense and the adjustments they can

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Speaker 2: make because that's what's gonna win this game. As much

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Speaker 2: I want to say it's all about Lamar, I feel

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Speaker 2: like we all know Lamar is gonna get his Like

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Speaker 2: I can't see Lamar being held under seventeen points in

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Speaker 2: this game, right. It feels like at minimum he's gonna

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Speaker 2: get us seventeen to twenty points in this game. Like

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Speaker 2: their offense is so high powered. Even if he struggles

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Speaker 2: in the very beginning with Jitters, I believe they will

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Speaker 2: make the adjustments to be able to figure out the

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Speaker 2: second half. It's really about the defense, Like can the

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Speaker 2: defense make the adjustments to get stops against Mahomes Because

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Speaker 2: we just said it, Mahomes his last three playoff games,

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Speaker 2: zero interception, zero sacks. You won't lose like and let

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Speaker 2: you have to get hits on him. You have to

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Speaker 2: make him uncomfortable, like we saw in that Tampa Bay

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Speaker 2: super Bowl. That's how you beat the guy. You have

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Speaker 2: to get hits on myhome. You have to make him uncomfortable.

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Speaker 2: If you're getting zero pressure, it's over. We're dead. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: we're bending a lot of money on Cayle van Noy

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Speaker 2: getting to the quarterback here, but they've been doing it

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Speaker 2: all season, like the Ravens have done it all season

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Speaker 2: with these random guys on that D line. So I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna keep trusting that.

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Speaker 1: Zero deception, zero sacks, averaging about thirty points a game.

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Speaker 1: And he's got six touchdowns in the last three playoff games,

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Speaker 1: including the Super Bowl against the Eagles. The first quarterback

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Speaker 1: since the merger was zero ionts and zero sacks and

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Speaker 1: three straight playoff games. Here's what worries me. We're saying

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs are not the same team they've always been,

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Speaker 1: But is it possible that they've gotten better The receivers

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Speaker 1: have gotten a little bit better, that Isaiah Picheco has

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Speaker 1: gotten a little bit better over the course of the season,

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Speaker 1: and so a lot of times when we are talking

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Speaker 1: about stats, we are talking about these things. We're talking

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Speaker 1: about over the length of a season, and not exactly

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Speaker 1: talking about what the team is in a sample size

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Speaker 1: to say four or five games, when they've gotten significantly better,

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Speaker 1: they've instituted new schemes, they've incorporated new people, and then

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Speaker 1: you've got Patrick Mahomes playing with more confidence. That is

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Speaker 1: truly frightening. And I know, I know, like, I know

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Speaker 1: what you're gonna say, and so I'm not going to

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Speaker 1: ask you to just keep saying like, yeah.

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Speaker 2: About the say chat, you have no idea? What about

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Speaker 2: this stuff?

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Speaker 1: Okay, go ahead and say it.

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Speaker 2: No, I was about to go on a whole tangible

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Speaker 2: conspiracy theories with Taylor Swift and then getting fifty million

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Speaker 2: views in that Chiefs Bills game where it's like, you know,

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Speaker 2: how many people watched the World Series in total War

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Speaker 2: Series at five games, Chad, you know many people in

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Speaker 2: total watch the World Series?

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Speaker 1: I believe it was it was about fifty million, because

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Speaker 1: I think the ratings, the ratings, I think I think

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Speaker 1: it was like an average of nine to ten million

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Speaker 1: or something like that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So I think it was forty three million in

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Speaker 2: total watch the World Series, so five games and NFL

291
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Speaker 2: got it in one game. So just all of the

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Speaker 2: points to why would the NFL not want Mahomes to

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Speaker 2: keep this going? It's definitely something I'm weary of. But again,

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Speaker 2: it's like I gotta trust the sports books right like

295
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Speaker 2: three and a half. It's so tempting. I'm trying so

296
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Speaker 2: hard not to be a sucker and take the three

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Speaker 2: and a half with Mahomes. But I get it, Like

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Speaker 2: I'll get why people are bullying me, talking shit to me.

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Speaker 2: It's just like you're overthinking this way too much. Just

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Speaker 2: take Mahomes of the dog. I totally get it, Like

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Speaker 2: you know what, I love betting trends, but I just

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Speaker 2: I can't do it. I just I'm convinced that this

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Speaker 2: Ravens is the better team, more complete team. But Chad

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Speaker 2: nailed it. Like the fear here is Mahomes takes it

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Speaker 2: to another level in the playoffs. We've only seen one

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Speaker 2: half of them. Are do that now? I was last

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Speaker 2: week that was Lamar's best week I've ever seen him

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Speaker 2: have in the playoffs? Is that real? Can he keep

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Speaker 2: that going? Was that just a flash? In the pin.

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Speaker 2: That to me is my biggest fear right now, Benny,

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Speaker 2: on this Ravens.

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Speaker 1: Team strength against strength. These were the two teams with

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Speaker 1: the most sacks in the NFL. Mahomes was sacked the

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Speaker 1: second fewest times in the NFL, only in front of

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen. Meanwhile, Lamar is the ultimate frustration. Who will

316
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Speaker 1: that ability to neutralize the pass rush benefit most? But

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Speaker 1: here's what I'm talking about with Mahomes. One of the

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Speaker 1: lowest percentages of bad throws in the NFL this year,

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Speaker 1: but the highest percentage of drops, most drops by receivers lately.

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Speaker 1: The only guy dropping balls for the Chiefs Travis Kelsey.

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Speaker 1: So if the pass rush ends up being even, the

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks are relatively even one hundred percent. Agree with you

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Speaker 1: about Kyle Hamilton. I think he's a game wrecker and

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Speaker 1: a game changer. Put him anywhere, let him do anything.

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Speaker 1: We did the favorite film room about Kyle Hamilton before

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Speaker 1: the last week of the NFL season. We showed him blitzing,

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Speaker 1: We showed him in coverage. We showed him blitzing, getting

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Speaker 1: knocked down, getting pancaked, getting back up, running into coverage,

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Speaker 1: getting an interception. The guy can do it all. He

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Speaker 1: can one hundred percent do it all. Here's where I

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Speaker 1: think this game might come down to, and where I

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Speaker 1: do think you're on the right side of it. The

333
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Speaker 1: Ravens rushing game is dominant. Most yards per rush before contact,

334
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Speaker 1: most rush yards overall, third, most broken tackles. The Chiefs

335
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Speaker 1: rush defense is the worst part of their team. Great

336
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Speaker 1: pass defense, great offensive line, great quarterback, their rush defense

337
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Speaker 1: is not very good. Josh Allen had seventy two yards

338
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Speaker 1: to two touchdowns. The Bills ran for one hundred and

339
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Speaker 1: eighty three yards. They averaged nearly five yards per carry. Like,

340
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Speaker 1: what is Lamar going to do against this team?

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Speaker 2: No, it's and that's why I can't get past. It's

342
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Speaker 2: like all the matchups are perfect for this Ravens team,

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Speaker 2: Like this is I mean, they probably they probably think

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Speaker 2: they wanted the Bills, they rather have played the Bills,

345
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Speaker 2: but it's like this, this is the matchup they wanted.

346
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Speaker 2: Like they match up so well offensively against this Chiefs team.

347
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Speaker 2: What they want to do defensively, it just will we mean,

348
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Speaker 2: you talked about which we'll talk about it again on Thursday.

349
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Speaker 2: It's like the Mahomes factor is just terrifying, Like everything

350
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Speaker 2: about it. All of his numbers are just so scary.

351
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Speaker 2: It just feels like that's why I wanted people to

352
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Speaker 2: get the three honestly, just because the back door it's

353
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Speaker 2: always going to be open, Like unless you really blow

354
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Speaker 2: him out, he's always gonna have a chance to get

355
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Speaker 2: this back door. And that's the fear of going against him.

356
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Speaker 2: But yeah, it's just I feel like it's a bad bet.

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Speaker 2: You're betting Mahomes on active back road games against one

358
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Speaker 2: of the best defenses we've seen this season. Like the

359
00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:07,000
Speaker 2: Ravens really would have to lay down on lay and

360
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Speaker 2: egg a total egg for them to lose this game.

361
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Speaker 2: It's just that's that's the fear here is you know

362
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Speaker 2: that it's just the pressure will be too much of

363
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Speaker 2: the Ravens tm the laying egg, just because on paper,

364
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Speaker 2: I dude, just think there's some there's such a better team.

365
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Speaker 2: Like I said, I have this at minus four. I

366
00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:24,280
Speaker 2: clearly think they're a better team, the Ravens. It's just

367
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Speaker 2: like Chad lead it all out. Like this Mahomes run

368
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Speaker 2: he's been on, especially these last three games of the

369
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Speaker 2: no Sackson interceptions, It's just like the guy is in

370
00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:36,399
Speaker 2: a different zone. Right now. But my pushback would be

371
00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:40,120
Speaker 2: he hasn't played a real defense in those those games.

372
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Speaker 2: Like that Miami defense had a bunch of injuries. They

373
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Speaker 2: weren't that good. Same goes for the Bills. They had

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Speaker 2: a bunch of injuries they couldn't overcome. You're not getting

375
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Speaker 2: that here with the Ravens. This is the Ravens, fully good,

376
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Speaker 2: good to go. They got all their dogs, they're they're healthy,

377
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Speaker 2: they're ready to go. And it's just like, that's what

378
00:19:57,119 --> 00:20:00,440
Speaker 2: I'm banking on, is that Mahomes has gone f off

379
00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:02,480
Speaker 2: playing these weak defenses and now he's running into a

380
00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:06,320
Speaker 2: real but behemoth. You know this this Ravens team, we

381
00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:08,280
Speaker 2: saw them against that foreign arison the same reason we

382
00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:09,960
Speaker 2: love them against forn Ara's team. It's like they have

383
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Speaker 2: the pieces to shut down all the talent that Ford

384
00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:16,119
Speaker 2: Anders had. Think about how much more talent they have

385
00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:19,600
Speaker 2: than this this Chiefs team. It's just like night and day.

386
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Speaker 2: So it really all comes down to my Homes. It's like,

387
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Speaker 2: what scheme can they run to make Mahomes uncomfortable? And

388
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Speaker 2: I believe they'll be able to do it. It's like

389
00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:29,640
Speaker 2: they know what they need to do here. It's all

390
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Speaker 2: about making Mahmes uncomfortable. And that's that really starts with

391
00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:34,800
Speaker 2: when I talked about Kyle Hamilton, like they have to

392
00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:36,960
Speaker 2: either be bringing them on the blitz the sky is

393
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Speaker 2: in the blitz with him, or having him drop back

394
00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:40,600
Speaker 2: with Kelsey. It's like they just have to keep giving

395
00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:44,000
Speaker 2: him crazy looks, keep my Homes uncomfortable, where the Bills

396
00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:46,320
Speaker 2: did not do that, and he got He easily got

397
00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:48,440
Speaker 2: into a rhythm in that first quarter and it carried

398
00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:50,159
Speaker 2: him throughout the whole game. He just was always in

399
00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:52,440
Speaker 2: a rhythm. They're either kicking a field goal or getting

400
00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:54,959
Speaker 2: a touchdown, and like the Ravens can't do that. They

401
00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:57,320
Speaker 2: neither get either get an early three and out. And

402
00:20:57,359 --> 00:20:58,879
Speaker 2: then like you just talked about, need to run the

403
00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:01,680
Speaker 2: ball for a whole they just need to have Mahomes

404
00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:03,800
Speaker 2: off the field and be uncomfortable, never get in a rhythm.

405
00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:06,120
Speaker 2: And that really is a cryptonite to how you beat

406
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Speaker 2: this team. I mean, we can go back and watch

407
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Speaker 2: that Raiders film a couple weeks ago when the Raiders

408
00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:12,679
Speaker 2: you know, kind of only through one pass that for

409
00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:15,440
Speaker 2: the fourth quarter. That's what they did. They literally just

410
00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:18,840
Speaker 2: ran the ball, ball, controlled the clock and Mahmes is uncomfortable.

411
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Speaker 2: I think Mahomes threw two picks in that game. It's like,

412
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Speaker 2: that's how you beat them. You keep them on the bench,

413
00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:25,080
Speaker 2: you never let them get in a rhythm, and the

414
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:26,840
Speaker 2: Rams are built perfectly to do that.

415
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Speaker 1: Two other x factors in this game that I don't

416
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Speaker 1: think we can say existed in games that the Chiefs

417
00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:41,359
Speaker 1: have won recently, going back to the Super Bowl and

418
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Speaker 1: in these two playoff games. I don't see either coach

419
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Speaker 1: getting tight or anxious. I don't see John Harbaugh getting

420
00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:55,000
Speaker 1: tight or anxious with play calling and making mistakes the

421
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:58,720
Speaker 1: way other coaches have against Patrick Mahomes. I do think

422
00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:02,560
Speaker 1: there is a factor there where coaches, you know, press

423
00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:04,439
Speaker 1: a little bit because they don't know how many chances

424
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Speaker 1: they're gonna get. They feel like Patrick Mahomes is going

425
00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:09,520
Speaker 1: to score on every drive, so they need to take

426
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Speaker 1: advantage of every drive. I don't see John Harbaugh getting

427
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Speaker 1: tight in this game.

428
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Speaker 2: And I do think, really I think, I honestly think

429
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Speaker 2: if he if they lost this game they get blown

430
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:22,840
Speaker 2: out or something, I feel like there will be conversation

431
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:25,199
Speaker 2: in the front office. It's like, is this is this

432
00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:27,720
Speaker 2: the guy? I mean he's been there for what fifteen

433
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:30,600
Speaker 2: to sixteen years. I don't know we have a thing

434
00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:33,960
Speaker 2: when Vrabel's out there, when Belichick's out there, I feel

435
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:37,920
Speaker 2: like and any coach could be made available at this point.

436
00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:40,360
Speaker 2: But I get you're coming from but I definitely think

437
00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:43,879
Speaker 2: he feels way more pressure than Andy Reid big Red does, right, Andy, Well,

438
00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 2: of course he's playing with house money.

439
00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:50,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I mean compared to Sean McDermott, who I

440
00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:53,240
Speaker 1: just think John Harbaugh is a better coach. He's more calculating,

441
00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:58,480
Speaker 1: and he's he's not he's not afraid to put his

442
00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:00,960
Speaker 1: defense back on the field, and the Dermott was clearly

443
00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:03,200
Speaker 1: afraid to put his defense back on the field, right,

444
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:06,840
Speaker 1: And so I don't see him getting tight in this game. Also,

445
00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:10,320
Speaker 1: Ravens have great special teams, and I think that's something

446
00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:13,920
Speaker 1: to consider as being important in this game. Simon, you're

447
00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:18,399
Speaker 1: going to be even more impressed. Speaking of X factors,

448
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:25,439
Speaker 1: get started on your resolutions with factor so you're ready

449
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462
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463
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464
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465
00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:30,080
Speaker 1: fifty percent off. All right, so let's set the table

466
00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:34,760
Speaker 1: on Detroit and San Francisco here. San Francisco is basically

467
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 1: settled in as a seven point favorite. Since two thousand,

468
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:40,960
Speaker 1: there have been eighteen conference title games with a spread

469
00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:44,400
Speaker 1: of six or higher. Five of those eighteen dogs went outright,

470
00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:46,760
Speaker 1: the last one the Bengals over the Chiefs two years

471
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:50,160
Speaker 1: ago is seven point dogs. Prior to that, the big

472
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:53,160
Speaker 1: favorites had won nine of the ten last ten straight up.

473
00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:58,439
Speaker 1: Very few big conference title games have outright upsets, So

474
00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:06,920
Speaker 1: you know, I feel like you really like the Lions here,

475
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:13,160
Speaker 1: and I am waiting on confirmation for Deebo Samuel before

476
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:18,120
Speaker 1: I go all in on the Niners. If Deebo Samuel plays,

477
00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:19,159
Speaker 1: does it change your opinion?

478
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:24,159
Speaker 2: No, I don't think it matters to me, But I

479
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:24,800
Speaker 2: guess what you're saying.

480
00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:24,919
Speaker 1: Though.

481
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:27,320
Speaker 2: The trends obviously say it's a big deal of Debo's

482
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:30,720
Speaker 2: in this offense, but Auk's been so good this year

483
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 2: and so it's kiddled. It's like they'll be able to

484
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:36,000
Speaker 2: figure it out, right, Like, Debo can't be that big

485
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 2: of a deal my guy who only gets four to

486
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:42,359
Speaker 2: five touches a game, But like you said, the stats

487
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:44,240
Speaker 2: say he is pretty important to that team and they're

488
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:46,199
Speaker 2: different when he's on the field. It's like, well, that

489
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:48,480
Speaker 2: makes sense. Deebo's on the best receivers on football, So

490
00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 2: I get while you're worried about it, But I saw

491
00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:54,920
Speaker 2: Sheefterd tweeted out that he's fifty to fifty to play.

492
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 2: That means he's like seventy five.

493
00:25:56,880 --> 00:26:01,680
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, listen, I am checking Deebo's status reports more

494
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:03,800
Speaker 1: frequently than I checked the status of my kids five

495
00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:07,199
Speaker 1: twenty nine. Like I am, I am all over the

496
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:10,359
Speaker 1: internet machine looking for updates. And yeah, fifty to fifty

497
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:12,960
Speaker 1: the X rays were negative. He's ripped in his head

498
00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:15,520
Speaker 1: above his arm above his head. I can't even do

499
00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 1: that with my shoulder. Like, I feel like he's gonna play.

500
00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:20,879
Speaker 2: Yeah. When I saw that he was fifty to fifty

501
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 2: from chef y, I was like, oh, okay, that means

502
00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:26,160
Speaker 2: he's seventy five percent chance he's gonna play. Like if

503
00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 2: he's fifty to fifty this early, that that's a high

504
00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 2: percent of chance he's gonna play. So yeah, yeah, if

505
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:33,160
Speaker 2: you're if you're back in that, I feel pretty good.

506
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 2: I mean, you obviously got the best of the number

507
00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:37,160
Speaker 2: of the six and a half. It's moved to seven

508
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:41,240
Speaker 2: now and it's just staying at the seven. If Chad's

509
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:44,560
Speaker 2: right and the books value Debo like he does, it

510
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 2: could drop half a point. If debo is ruled out,

511
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 2: this could drop back down the six and a half.

512
00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:51,439
Speaker 2: But I still I just cannot see this get in

513
00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:54,479
Speaker 2: the seven and a half unless they really need lines money.

514
00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:56,399
Speaker 2: That's when I'll get the seven and a half. The

515
00:26:56,400 --> 00:27:01,280
Speaker 2: books are really feeling and balanced. But this is the

516
00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:02,879
Speaker 2: these these ones are always harder to play because the

517
00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:05,000
Speaker 2: biggest slide ability every sports book guy had talked to

518
00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:08,320
Speaker 2: right now, every you know, every book their biggest liability

519
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:10,159
Speaker 2: right now are the forty nine ers futures. Right it

520
00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 2: was the Bills. The Bills was the one they needed

521
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:14,359
Speaker 2: killed that was killed. Now it's a forty nine ers,

522
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:18,800
Speaker 2: Like that's their biggest liability super future wise, So it's

523
00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:21,480
Speaker 2: it's pretty interesting where they They probably made this line

524
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:23,800
Speaker 2: what it is because of that, right, Like to take

525
00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:25,440
Speaker 2: a little bit of the money on the other side.

526
00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:27,840
Speaker 2: I believe in the app it was like seventy five

527
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 2: percent of the bets, sixty seven percent of the money

528
00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:33,479
Speaker 2: was on the lines money line. So clearly a ton

529
00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:35,520
Speaker 2: of money's coming in the Lions money line at this point.

530
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:39,960
Speaker 2: But if we're just looking at excellent exces and o's,

531
00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:43,480
Speaker 2: I love the matchup for the Lions offense. Like everything

532
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:46,439
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers can do well, they have a

533
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:49,120
Speaker 2: piece to counterrate like they have. They have two different

534
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:51,480
Speaker 2: running back styles they can counter to whatever type of

535
00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:55,080
Speaker 2: run defense the forty nine trying to play, and the

536
00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:57,720
Speaker 2: fact of the porta he's come back from that d

537
00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 2: knee injury, and you know, even last week he would

538
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:02,560
Speaker 2: take these really rough hits and get up limping a

539
00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:05,640
Speaker 2: little bit. You know, five six plays later, I'd seen

540
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:08,800
Speaker 2: him running full speed downfield. It's just like the guys

541
00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 2: are freak Like he's got a bang up knee and

542
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:13,960
Speaker 2: he's just playing through it. He to me, is gonna

543
00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:15,560
Speaker 2: be the big difference here where I don't think they

544
00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:17,720
Speaker 2: have a guy that can cover him like they can't.

545
00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:20,040
Speaker 2: They can't use Fred Warner to cover him because they

546
00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:22,359
Speaker 2: need Fred in the middle covering these two running backs.

547
00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:24,640
Speaker 2: So there's just a bunch of different looks they can

548
00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 2: use to go against this team that I think about

549
00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:30,280
Speaker 2: to keep it close. But the fear here is just

550
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:33,359
Speaker 2: the Lion's defense, like if Perdy, if Perdy's got it

551
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:36,480
Speaker 2: going and Kyle Shanan's in his bag. And we'd always

552
00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:40,040
Speaker 2: talked about his first thirty forty scripted plays. Those those

553
00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:43,480
Speaker 2: plays were shit against green Bay, right, green Bay really

554
00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 2: were prepared to stop those plays.

555
00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:50,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, but don't forget, don't forget again those plays included

556
00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:54,680
Speaker 1: Deebo Samuel. The first three plays, green Bay had no

557
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:59,880
Speaker 1: answer for McCaffrey long run, Yeah, Debo long run, Deebo

558
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:03,800
Speaker 1: long pass, and then he's out like they were marching,

559
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:06,360
Speaker 1: and that's.

560
00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:09,040
Speaker 2: You're looking at here where it's just like the Lions.

561
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:10,760
Speaker 2: I feel the same about the Green Bay. Like Green

562
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 2: Bay the reason we like the fornounce like the Green

563
00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 2: Bay is never gonna be able to get stops, Like

564
00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:16,880
Speaker 2: they don't have the guys that get stops, and that

565
00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 2: that's my fear here with the Lions team. It's like

566
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:21,520
Speaker 2: the Lions really don't have the guys that get stops,

567
00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:25,080
Speaker 2: like they're big X factor on their defenses. You know

568
00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:28,720
Speaker 2: what is he a second year player at this point,

569
00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:32,280
Speaker 2: it's just again, I love Unchon, I love their pass rush,

570
00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:35,520
Speaker 2: but it's like I'm just I'm a little worried about

571
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:38,680
Speaker 2: this Detroit defense and getting stops, but I have such

572
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 2: confidence in their offense right now. It's like at seven,

573
00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 2: at seven points, I have to take it. And you know,

574
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 2: I think man Mitchell gave it to us where he

575
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:48,239
Speaker 2: came on here about that stat like the Bengals are

576
00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 2: the last team to win outright as a big dog,

577
00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:54,760
Speaker 2: Like it's tough for me to tell you to take

578
00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 2: this line's money line, but I do think they're a

579
00:29:56,640 --> 00:30:00,320
Speaker 2: live dog. Like we saw a brock Purty had a

580
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:02,320
Speaker 2: little bit of the deer in headlight looks last week, right,

581
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:04,160
Speaker 2: and he did pull it out at the end of

582
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:06,840
Speaker 2: that game, Like he made that drive and that's the four. No.

583
00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 2: I should be feeling good about him, but it's just like,

584
00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:12,400
Speaker 2: this isn't my homes, this isn't Lamar, right, this is like,

585
00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:15,800
Speaker 2: this is what we talk about with a game manager,

586
00:30:16,040 --> 00:30:18,760
Speaker 2: Like this is why he was a late round pick.

587
00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:22,400
Speaker 2: He does have some weaknesses that teams can't exploit. It's

588
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 2: all about can you beat Shanahan, Like when Shanahan's system's clicking,

589
00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:29,520
Speaker 2: and like Chad said, when Debo is in there, it's

590
00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:31,680
Speaker 2: really hard to get stops. There's just so many weapons

591
00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:34,000
Speaker 2: on that team where it's like it really all comes

592
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:35,719
Speaker 2: down to party what kind of game he's gonna have.

593
00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:38,400
Speaker 2: Because I'm looking at weather right now, Chad, it's supposed

594
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 2: to be a perfect winter day there in San Francisco.

595
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 2: Like we talked about the splits with golf outdoors, this

596
00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:47,760
Speaker 2: would be as if he's playing indoor game, like there's

597
00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:50,480
Speaker 2: no weather, it's gonna be a perfect day, perfect Sunday day,

598
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:53,840
Speaker 2: or I guess night. I'm really not worried about golf

599
00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:58,800
Speaker 2: being outdoors here. It's really my fear is this Lion's defense,

600
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 2: Like I'm just I am scared. I'm gonna, you know,

601
00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:03,760
Speaker 2: roll over. It's gonna be twenty one to seven. And

602
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:06,000
Speaker 2: it's just like, well, that was a dumb bet, like

603
00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:07,760
Speaker 2: I should have known better going against this forty nine

604
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:11,960
Speaker 2: Ers defense, with this Lion's defense. But I just right now,

605
00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:14,520
Speaker 2: I believe in golf in this line's all offense where

606
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:19,160
Speaker 2: it's like they got all their pieces, you know. I

607
00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:20,880
Speaker 2: know they had a couple injuries to their offensive line,

608
00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 2: which obviously is a big deal going against one of

609
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 2: the best best front fours on all football with a

610
00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:28,640
Speaker 2: forty nine Ers have, But it's just like when you

611
00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 2: look at on paper, it's pretty incredible how good this

612
00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:35,560
Speaker 2: Lions teams perform this year. And once again I'll go

613
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:40,240
Speaker 2: back to my notes. They have struggled against really good

614
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:43,120
Speaker 2: defenses this year, and we saw when they went to

615
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:47,200
Speaker 2: play that Ravens team they were dominated and golf could

616
00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:50,120
Speaker 2: not move the ball. But I just I think it's

617
00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 2: gonna be different, especially when we talk in Campbell right,

618
00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:56,640
Speaker 2: like he knows our seven point dog. Even in the

619
00:31:56,680 --> 00:31:59,120
Speaker 2: second half or the first half, it feels like, if

620
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:01,960
Speaker 2: it's the second quarter, they're on their own forty and

621
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:04,720
Speaker 2: they have three yards to gain, I feel like Campbell's

622
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:06,480
Speaker 2: gonna go for it, Chad, Like I feel like he's

623
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 2: gonna lay it all out there and just really go

624
00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:11,880
Speaker 2: for it and put pedal to the medal. So that's

625
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:14,040
Speaker 2: another reason it's gonna be confidence taking this big number

626
00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 2: in the seven where it's like I just feel like,

627
00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:19,280
Speaker 2: even if we're out of it, he's just gonna keep going.

628
00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:21,240
Speaker 2: Where the same thing we thought with the Bucks last week,

629
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:24,040
Speaker 2: where it's like even when the Bucks were down by fourteen,

630
00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 2: I think you felt the same way, where it's like

631
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:27,240
Speaker 2: I feel like they're still going to score here, Like

632
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:28,360
Speaker 2: I feel like they're still be able to get the

633
00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:30,400
Speaker 2: ball downfield and it's gonna come down to a two

634
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:32,720
Speaker 2: point there. It's probably gonna come down to another two

635
00:32:32,760 --> 00:32:34,760
Speaker 2: pointer if you're backing this big dog here where it's like,

636
00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:37,600
Speaker 2: you know, Campbell gets that touchdown, he's not kicking the

637
00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:39,880
Speaker 2: extra point. We're not getting a push here. He's definitely

638
00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 2: gonna go for the two. So it's interesting they move

639
00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:45,800
Speaker 2: this number all way up to seven. I think it's

640
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:49,440
Speaker 2: not only protect against futures, but it's like, you know,

641
00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:51,840
Speaker 2: the public, they're gonna come in and hammer this forty

642
00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:54,760
Speaker 2: nine Ers team. They're on paper, they're clearly the better team.

643
00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:57,920
Speaker 2: It's just the between the storyline, the fact that Goff

644
00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:00,440
Speaker 2: has been to a super Bowl, the fact that Campbell

645
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:02,400
Speaker 2: takes his higher risk, like he's just willing to go

646
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:05,040
Speaker 2: for all these sport downs. I just I have to

647
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:08,520
Speaker 2: take the plus seven on this Lion's team.

648
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:16,280
Speaker 1: Campbell going for it that frequently also potentially plays into

649
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:20,560
Speaker 1: the idea of the Niners covering right, because he may

650
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 1: go for it in those scenarios that you talked about.

651
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:27,160
Speaker 1: It's the Detroit side of the field, the forty five

652
00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:31,240
Speaker 1: yard line. Early in the third quarter, he decides they're

653
00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:33,720
Speaker 1: going to go for it. All of a sudden, the

654
00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:36,520
Speaker 1: Nines are. The Niners go from up seven to fourteen

655
00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:38,760
Speaker 1: because the lines don't know.

656
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:41,320
Speaker 2: They can usually roll them right, we roll them.

657
00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:46,080
Speaker 1: The variants in this yes very like to me. There's

658
00:33:46,080 --> 00:33:50,800
Speaker 1: not as much variance in the Ravens Chiefs. This could

659
00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:54,400
Speaker 1: be this could be fifty two to seven, it could

660
00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:59,480
Speaker 1: be fifty two to forty nine. And what's interesting to me,

661
00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:02,840
Speaker 1: there's two things on both sides of the battles.

662
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:04,800
Speaker 2: Lines fans get upset. I can see the lines blowing

663
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:07,240
Speaker 2: out the other side too, like we can see Parady

664
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 2: having a day from hell and then blowing out as well.

665
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:12,959
Speaker 2: But like Chad's right, like we could easily be down

666
00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:15,480
Speaker 2: fifteen to seven Vender in the fourth quarter, no one

667
00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:17,640
Speaker 2: would be shocked where it's like, yeah, well that's when

668
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:19,120
Speaker 2: you live and die, going for a fourth down in

669
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:21,319
Speaker 2: your own twenty Like it's just Campbell is that kind

670
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:21,680
Speaker 2: of guy?

671
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:27,360
Speaker 1: Yeah? I think that there's two interesting elements here. Defensively

672
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:30,600
Speaker 1: for both teams. The Niners gift is getting to the quarterback

673
00:34:30,640 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 1: without blitzing. Third lowest blitz rate, fourth fewest blitzes in

674
00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:37,120
Speaker 1: the NFL this year, but ninth most in sacks right,

675
00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:41,040
Speaker 1: so they do not need to bring extra pressure in

676
00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:44,799
Speaker 1: order to get to Jared Goff, which means they can

677
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:48,560
Speaker 1: have a lot of help in the secondary, defending against

678
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:53,160
Speaker 1: someone like Sam Laporta defending against aman Ra Saint Brown,

679
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:56,880
Speaker 1: defending deep against Jameson Williams like they can have the

680
00:34:56,960 --> 00:35:00,640
Speaker 1: support they need, and they've played a lot better in

681
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:02,959
Speaker 1: the defensive backfield this year than they have in years past.

682
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:07,760
Speaker 1: Steve Wolkes has focused on the defensive backfield in ways

683
00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:11,719
Speaker 1: that Deamico Ryans and Robert Sala hasn't done because they

684
00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:15,680
Speaker 1: were so focused on that front seven right, Number one,

685
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:22,880
Speaker 1: Number two Detroit's defense. You mentioned it that passing defense

686
00:35:23,000 --> 00:35:26,560
Speaker 1: isn't just bad. They're great at pressuring. They don't get

687
00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:29,640
Speaker 1: to the quarterback very much. A lot of QB pressures.

688
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 1: Ninth most yards after the catch this season, fifth most

689
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:42,719
Speaker 1: missed tackles. I'll say it again, Deebo Samuel. What does

690
00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:46,800
Speaker 1: he do? He breaks tackles, he gets yards after the catch.

691
00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:53,920
Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey second most yards after contact in the NFL

692
00:35:54,400 --> 00:36:02,680
Speaker 1: this season. Like this offense is Taylor made to destroy

693
00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:07,520
Speaker 1: and take advantage of what this Detroit defense is terrible

694
00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:11,719
Speaker 1: at terrible if Deebo Samuel's played.

695
00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:16,359
Speaker 2: But it's we already saw this match with the Rams, though,

696
00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:19,480
Speaker 2: and the counter to that is Detroit they'll make you

697
00:36:19,600 --> 00:36:22,160
Speaker 2: pay for every catch you can get, right, They're gonna

698
00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:24,440
Speaker 2: beat their shit out of you. And that's really their mentality.

699
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:26,480
Speaker 2: It's like, we know we're not that good, and the

700
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:29,520
Speaker 2: guys are gonna get theirs. Every time they touch the ball,

701
00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:32,440
Speaker 2: they're gonna pay for it. And it's worked. Like even

702
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:35,080
Speaker 2: against that Buckskin, you saw a couple of alligator arms, right,

703
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:37,520
Speaker 2: a couple of guys, yeah, going to catch the ball

704
00:36:37,560 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 2: and they pull in because they know they're about to

705
00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:41,319
Speaker 2: get it leveled. And like that's just how Detroit's playing

706
00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:43,719
Speaker 2: right now, which I love because they just know they

707
00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:46,839
Speaker 2: don't have the talent. And it's like in football, when

708
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:48,480
Speaker 2: you don't have the talent, you can do the other

709
00:36:48,520 --> 00:36:50,520
Speaker 2: side of football, which is making it ugly and dirty

710
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:52,640
Speaker 2: and money, which is a reason a lot of us

711
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:55,279
Speaker 2: love football. It's like that's the game at its core.

712
00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:58,080
Speaker 2: It's a physical game and you can wear out teams

713
00:36:58,080 --> 00:37:03,000
Speaker 2: playing that way. And see goes for this foreigners team,

714
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:06,320
Speaker 2: like Chad just said it, it's like if their offenses humming,

715
00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:10,680
Speaker 2: it's over. Like the Lions, they need turnovers. There's a

716
00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:12,840
Speaker 2: lot of things their defense needs at the forty Niners,

717
00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:14,560
Speaker 2: like you just said, don't need. And that's why they

718
00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:16,920
Speaker 2: are such a big favorite, right that's they deserve to

719
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:18,560
Speaker 2: be this big of a favor because of all the

720
00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:22,560
Speaker 2: things we just talked about. But it's just when I

721
00:37:22,600 --> 00:37:25,359
Speaker 2: break it down, it's like there's so many things they

722
00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:27,799
Speaker 2: can do to attack this forty Niners defense that will

723
00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:31,360
Speaker 2: be available. But you're exactly right, Like Chase Young probably

724
00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:34,800
Speaker 2: one of the best ads. I mean him and Sweat,

725
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:37,880
Speaker 2: like both those guys that left Washington have been dominant

726
00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:40,360
Speaker 2: in their new homes. Like he's been really played great

727
00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:42,640
Speaker 2: for them since he's joined them in this foreign iris team,

728
00:37:42,680 --> 00:37:45,719
Speaker 2: like him and Bosa having that Ohio state connection. It's

729
00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:47,960
Speaker 2: clearly worked, right, like they always stoke one guy gets

730
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:49,200
Speaker 2: a sack of the guys that you know, the other

731
00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:51,359
Speaker 2: guy being like, all right, now it's your turn, and

732
00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:54,320
Speaker 2: it's worked, like Chase Young's come there and he's obviously

733
00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:56,480
Speaker 2: he played much better this year than he had previous

734
00:37:56,520 --> 00:37:59,160
Speaker 2: seasons with Washington. But he looks like who we thought

735
00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:00,879
Speaker 2: he was going to be this year, right, He's been

736
00:38:01,440 --> 00:38:04,320
Speaker 2: great against the pass, solid against the run, like everything

737
00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:06,480
Speaker 2: they've hoped for when they traded for him. That is

738
00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:08,040
Speaker 2: a big deal, Like you talked about, the fact that

739
00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:10,759
Speaker 2: they can get pressure with just their front four is

740
00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:13,839
Speaker 2: a big deal. But I just look at the back end.

741
00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:17,719
Speaker 2: Their secondary is not that good for forty nine ers,

742
00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:19,440
Speaker 2: and they've gotten away with it because of what you

743
00:38:19,560 --> 00:38:21,680
Speaker 2: just talked about, where they only need a rush for

744
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:23,880
Speaker 2: and drop everyone else in the in the coverage. Like

745
00:38:23,920 --> 00:38:25,840
Speaker 2: that's a big deal for this forty nine ers team.

746
00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:28,240
Speaker 2: I don't think they can get away with it against

747
00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:30,160
Speaker 2: this Lion's team that can run the ball down your throat,

748
00:38:30,239 --> 00:38:32,839
Speaker 2: Like if they're trying to drop guys back, they'll bring

749
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:34,879
Speaker 2: Montgomery back in and just run it down your throat

750
00:38:34,880 --> 00:38:36,799
Speaker 2: and pick up five or six yards per carry. I mean,

751
00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:39,600
Speaker 2: we've seen them do that multiple times this year. And

752
00:38:39,640 --> 00:38:42,000
Speaker 2: then what happens if they bring the linebackers back down.

753
00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:44,279
Speaker 2: They switch in Gibbs who can catch them all on

754
00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:46,160
Speaker 2: the backfield and as soon as you touched the ball,

755
00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:48,400
Speaker 2: he's already hit his four to three speed right Like

756
00:38:48,440 --> 00:38:50,600
Speaker 2: we saw time and time again in that game when

757
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:52,279
Speaker 2: they needed someone at the backfield to catch the ball

758
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:54,640
Speaker 2: and they make a big play, it's him. Like these

759
00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:56,719
Speaker 2: rookies they brought in and we talked all year about it,

760
00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:59,920
Speaker 2: they've just been incredible. So I've seen them be beat

761
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:02,799
Speaker 2: by good tight ends before. Now we have arguably the

762
00:39:02,800 --> 00:39:05,360
Speaker 2: best tight end all football coming in. So there's just

763
00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:08,480
Speaker 2: a bunch of stuff where it's like I am scared about,

764
00:39:08,560 --> 00:39:10,920
Speaker 2: which I talked about with this Lions team on the defense,

765
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:13,279
Speaker 2: I just can't get past the fact they have all

766
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:15,479
Speaker 2: the piece set offense to counter it, like they have

767
00:39:15,600 --> 00:39:18,480
Speaker 2: the guys to this get these points and keep this

768
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:21,480
Speaker 2: game close. So people could already tell obviously I like

769
00:39:21,560 --> 00:39:24,399
Speaker 2: the over in this game. But yeah, like the Lions,

770
00:39:25,000 --> 00:39:26,920
Speaker 2: I thought I could be talked out of it, like

771
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:28,600
Speaker 2: having a couple of pros reach out to me. But

772
00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:31,080
Speaker 2: for the most part, it obviously seems like most pros

773
00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:33,200
Speaker 2: like the Lions here at this big of a number

774
00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:35,239
Speaker 2: because they think what I think. Where it's like the

775
00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:37,400
Speaker 2: books are giving us an extra to zero point and

776
00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:40,000
Speaker 2: a half of value here just because they are so

777
00:39:40,239 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 2: heavily invested right now and all the futures tied to

778
00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:45,279
Speaker 2: this four nine ers team. So I'm gonna take the

779
00:39:45,400 --> 00:39:48,319
Speaker 2: free points of value and take the seven, all right.

780
00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:52,080
Speaker 1: Simon likes the Lions at seven. I already bet the

781
00:39:52,160 --> 00:39:55,280
Speaker 1: Niners at six and a half have not done anything else.

782
00:39:56,239 --> 00:39:59,759
Speaker 1: Simon definitely likes the Ravens. I've not done anything on

783
00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:04,240
Speaker 1: that game yet. It's going to be fascinating to see

784
00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:06,960
Speaker 1: how the week evolves and how the information coming in

785
00:40:09,239 --> 00:40:12,400
Speaker 1: makes us feel about doubling down on our bets, buying

786
00:40:12,440 --> 00:40:15,239
Speaker 1: out of our bets, putting more different numbers, how the

787
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:18,120
Speaker 1: markets move. We'll break that down and all of that

788
00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:24,600
Speaker 1: with sharp Calls on Thursday. Simon. I know it's playoff

789
00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:28,719
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00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:31,600
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