1 00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:16,800 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:19,760 --> 00:00:20,920 Speaker 2: What's going on? Everybody? 3 00:00:20,960 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 3: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast our UFC petting preview 4 00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:30,880 Speaker 3: because it's Friday, and we get you set for the 5 00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:36,080 Speaker 3: card for Saturday. This week we head to Pachanga Arena 6 00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:41,120 Speaker 3: in San Diego, California, UFC Fight Night Vera v. 7 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:43,920 Speaker 2: Cruz. That is the main event. We've got. 8 00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:47,440 Speaker 3: Well, Brendan Glasheen here your host. We've got Action Network 9 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:49,800 Speaker 3: seenior writer. He covers a lot of stuff at Action Network. 10 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:52,239 Speaker 3: Sean Zarrillo, He's on top of things when it comes 11 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:57,639 Speaker 3: to UFC and a former MMA fighter, MMA analyst at 12 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:00,440 Speaker 3: Action Network. Also a jack of ultry raids when it 13 00:01:00,480 --> 00:01:03,520 Speaker 3: comes to our coverage at Action Billy Ward. So we 14 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:06,600 Speaker 3: will take you around this card and get you set 15 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:12,039 Speaker 3: for tomorrow's fights. We will get to underdog plays the 16 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:14,560 Speaker 3: guys like they have the fight of the night, Bruno 17 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:16,920 Speaker 3: mayor Shart is the fight they want to focus on. 18 00:01:17,400 --> 00:01:20,560 Speaker 3: That we'll discuss and pick that. Apart from a betting perspective, 19 00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:23,880 Speaker 3: Favorite Props got the DFS contest pulled. 20 00:01:23,680 --> 00:01:24,040 Speaker 2: Up as well. 21 00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:27,560 Speaker 3: Thirteen fights to construct a lineup. Billy does a good 22 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:30,320 Speaker 3: job getting us ready for that, and then we'll go 23 00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:34,800 Speaker 3: to best bets to wrap the show. We want to 24 00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:38,520 Speaker 3: start though whip the main event. We've got a good 25 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:43,320 Speaker 3: one here between Vera and Cruz, two very very similarly 26 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:44,400 Speaker 3: built fighters. 27 00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:45,880 Speaker 2: Zarillo. 28 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:48,600 Speaker 3: Of course, you know, we don't mean if you're new 29 00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:51,080 Speaker 3: to the pod and we do this UFC betting preview, 30 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:52,800 Speaker 3: we don't just go to the money line and say, Okay, 31 00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 3: this is what we're gonna do. 32 00:01:54,080 --> 00:01:54,640 Speaker 2: Are you gonna pick? 33 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:58,040 Speaker 3: We try to find ways to bet the fights and 34 00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 3: what could be the makes the most sense from an 35 00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:01,440 Speaker 3: actionable perspective. 36 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:03,280 Speaker 2: So how are you betting the main event? Sehn? 37 00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:05,160 Speaker 4: Pre fight? 38 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:07,880 Speaker 5: I think the best angles are Cruise's money line or 39 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:10,639 Speaker 5: Cruised by decision. Certainly prefer him on the money line 40 00:02:10,639 --> 00:02:14,240 Speaker 5: pre fight. On the other side of the matchup, Billy 41 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:16,000 Speaker 5: is a bit different of a take than I do, 42 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:18,880 Speaker 5: but I would prefer Marlin Vera's inside the distance odds 43 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:20,520 Speaker 5: as the post is money line. 44 00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:22,800 Speaker 6: Billy prefers a different prop. We'll get to that in 45 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:23,240 Speaker 6: a moment. 46 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:26,320 Speaker 5: The way I see this fight playing out, Marlin Vera 47 00:02:26,360 --> 00:02:28,760 Speaker 5: almost always loses the first round of his fights. 48 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:29,800 Speaker 6: It's very consistent. 49 00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:34,640 Speaker 5: Tends to keep his volume low, doesn't really pursue his 50 00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:37,959 Speaker 5: opponents aggressively, but it does lend itself to being more 51 00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 5: of a five round style. Builds does his fights go. 52 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 5: The more he damages his opponents, the more he picks 53 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:46,040 Speaker 5: up his pace. Has a very good killer instinct. But 54 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:48,960 Speaker 5: you can almost always find a better price on Marlin 55 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 5: Vera after round one as opposed to pre fight, So 56 00:02:52,560 --> 00:02:54,800 Speaker 5: if you want to bet Vera's money line, I would 57 00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:57,680 Speaker 5: wait around, maybe even wait two rounds. While Cruz has 58 00:02:57,680 --> 00:03:00,959 Speaker 5: his most success before Vera event takes over the fight 59 00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:04,480 Speaker 5: and takes over down the stretch against the older fighter, 60 00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:09,480 Speaker 5: Cruise is phenomenally difficult to hit, great footwork, very awkward angles, 61 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:12,639 Speaker 5: very difficult movement for his opponents, and I do expect 62 00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:14,760 Speaker 5: him to land more volume in this fight. Vera has 63 00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:16,679 Speaker 5: a little bit trouble hitting his opponents when they don't 64 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:18,840 Speaker 5: stand in front of him. Cruse is never going to 65 00:03:18,919 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 5: stand in front of him until you chop down his 66 00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 5: lead leg, get him to slow down, slow his footwork down. 67 00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:27,560 Speaker 5: So I expect Cruz's success, most of the success to 68 00:03:27,600 --> 00:03:30,360 Speaker 5: come early, but I gave him very little finishing upside 69 00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:33,639 Speaker 5: in this fight. Not a big hitter, Vera wears damage 70 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:36,440 Speaker 5: about as well as any fighter out there. Even in 71 00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:39,560 Speaker 5: his last fight against Rob Font, Font landed about triple 72 00:03:39,640 --> 00:03:42,600 Speaker 5: or quadruple to strikes that Vera did, but Vera didn't 73 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:44,320 Speaker 5: even look like he got hit at the end of 74 00:03:44,320 --> 00:03:47,320 Speaker 5: the fight, and he knocked down or wobbled Font on 75 00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:49,640 Speaker 5: multiple occasions. So I expect Cruz to win more of 76 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:53,480 Speaker 5: the minutes, but Vera to have the more significant moments 77 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:55,760 Speaker 5: in the fight, and it may be difficult for the 78 00:03:55,840 --> 00:03:59,920 Speaker 5: judges to weigh Cruse's minute winning against Vera's moment winning 79 00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:02,960 Speaker 5: or his ability to hurt Cruise. Cruise has been knocked 80 00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 5: down at Beilie four times in his last four fights, 81 00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 5: getting older, bandon weight, former champion, but that durability is 82 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:12,920 Speaker 5: waning in his later years, so I think Vera can 83 00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 5: eventually put him out. But I think Cruz is more 84 00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:19,400 Speaker 5: likely to win minutes, particularly early. So Vera may need 85 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:21,280 Speaker 5: to win three to final four rounds if he wants 86 00:04:21,279 --> 00:04:23,080 Speaker 5: to win a decision, or may need to find a 87 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:26,000 Speaker 5: late finish. I think it's gonna be on the borderline 88 00:04:26,279 --> 00:04:28,839 Speaker 5: of a late finish for Rivera or a decision win 89 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 5: for Vera. So I do get Billy's angle again, just 90 00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:33,080 Speaker 5: teasing it, but he'll get to it in a second. 91 00:04:33,120 --> 00:04:37,400 Speaker 5: But ultimately I would pick Cheetoh. I would pick Cheeto 92 00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:41,280 Speaker 5: to win late by late stoppage. But from a value perspective, 93 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:44,760 Speaker 5: I think Cruse's money line or decision props pre fight 94 00:04:44,880 --> 00:04:48,039 Speaker 5: are the best prefight angles. I'm probably just await and 95 00:04:48,080 --> 00:04:50,960 Speaker 5: target Vera live, okay, And that's. 96 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:55,000 Speaker 3: Uh billy understanding where Shawn's coming from. There, like just 97 00:04:55,040 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 3: the slow starts, how do you respond to that? 98 00:04:57,839 --> 00:04:59,240 Speaker 2: And then how are you gonna bet the fight? 99 00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:02,160 Speaker 4: Yeah? I mean, honestly, I think probably the sharp respective 100 00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:04,279 Speaker 4: of all of these between anything we're going to say 101 00:05:04,360 --> 00:05:06,600 Speaker 4: is the Vera live angles. This isn't one that I 102 00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:09,760 Speaker 4: particularly love angle on before the fight. This is more 103 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:11,559 Speaker 4: of like if I had to bet it, than something 104 00:05:11,600 --> 00:05:13,839 Speaker 4: I'm excited to run and grab the ticket on. But 105 00:05:13,920 --> 00:05:16,200 Speaker 4: you can get Vera by decision at plus one fifty five, 106 00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:17,840 Speaker 4: which just seems a little high to me against a 107 00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:20,599 Speaker 4: fighter who is as strong defensively as dominant Cruise is. 108 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:22,800 Speaker 4: You know, we're getting a guy who's a very heavy 109 00:05:22,839 --> 00:05:25,000 Speaker 4: favorite overall on the money line, and then we're getting 110 00:05:25,040 --> 00:05:27,880 Speaker 4: plus money to not finish Dominant Cruz, who like is 111 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:30,520 Speaker 4: really really hard to finish. And I think it's tricky 112 00:05:30,560 --> 00:05:32,320 Speaker 4: because you see a lot with Vera. He doesn't really 113 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:35,520 Speaker 4: land one big hard shot. He just continuously hits and 114 00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:37,760 Speaker 4: hits and hits and accumulates a lot of them. So 115 00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:40,440 Speaker 4: that's where some of those late stoppages come into play too, 116 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:42,599 Speaker 4: where his last fight against Rob Foont probably could have 117 00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:44,800 Speaker 4: been stopped on a couple of different occasions down the stretch, 118 00:05:45,080 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 4: but there's never that one moment where he just totally 119 00:05:47,360 --> 00:05:48,839 Speaker 4: rocks the guy and takes him out of there. It's 120 00:05:48,880 --> 00:05:51,159 Speaker 4: just a lot of heavy shots over and over and 121 00:05:51,200 --> 00:05:53,240 Speaker 4: over and over. So that's what makes me a little 122 00:05:53,279 --> 00:05:54,839 Speaker 4: bit scared. You know, you could certainly hedge this with 123 00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:57,520 Speaker 4: like Vera around four very around five bets at long odds, 124 00:05:58,080 --> 00:06:00,359 Speaker 4: but yeah, you know, I see it playing out fairly 125 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:02,400 Speaker 4: similar to what Sean's saying. But that's just why I'm 126 00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:03,920 Speaker 4: on the decision. I don't know if he can get 127 00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:05,799 Speaker 4: him out of there at the end so much as 128 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:08,839 Speaker 4: he'll look so he'll look like such a heavy favorite 129 00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:10,960 Speaker 4: in the third, fourth, fifth round, it'll be a pretty 130 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:13,760 Speaker 4: clear decision for Vera if it gets there, and then 131 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:15,760 Speaker 4: you know, depending on the reffing and depending on if 132 00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:18,000 Speaker 4: he does land one big shot which seems fairly unlikely 133 00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:21,480 Speaker 4: against the defensive fighter like Cruiz, that means the decision. 134 00:06:21,520 --> 00:06:23,520 Speaker 4: But I do think the live the live angles un 135 00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 4: VERA are probably the best way to play this personally. 136 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:28,960 Speaker 5: I should mention some books do you offer depending on 137 00:06:28,960 --> 00:06:31,839 Speaker 5: what state you're in for a fighter to win round four, 138 00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 5: round five, or by decision, they'll combine all three of 139 00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:37,040 Speaker 5: those together. I think that's a solid way to play it. 140 00:06:37,120 --> 00:06:39,240 Speaker 5: Just I'm in New York where they do not offer 141 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:41,080 Speaker 5: that option, so I'm not sure what the odds are, 142 00:06:41,120 --> 00:06:42,640 Speaker 5: but if you have that available, I think that's a 143 00:06:42,640 --> 00:06:43,839 Speaker 5: pretty solid way to play it. 144 00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:46,599 Speaker 4: Yeah, real quick too, if you go on at least 145 00:06:46,640 --> 00:06:49,520 Speaker 4: DraftKings for sure does it. You can same game parlay 146 00:06:49,760 --> 00:06:52,039 Speaker 4: you know any fighter's money line and over a certain 147 00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:53,520 Speaker 4: amount of time, so you could go over three and 148 00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:56,279 Speaker 4: a half rounds. That's probably going to be roughly even money. 149 00:06:56,600 --> 00:06:58,000 Speaker 4: And that's one way to do it too. It's good 150 00:06:58,040 --> 00:06:59,680 Speaker 4: a similar angle, But when I was looking this up, 151 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:01,880 Speaker 4: the same game pirea up yet, so I couldn't give 152 00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 4: specific numbers. 153 00:07:02,839 --> 00:07:06,200 Speaker 5: Points Bett sometimes offers those options as well. Fighter and 154 00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:08,440 Speaker 5: over two and a half or fighter and under two 155 00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:10,280 Speaker 5: and a half. It may change for the five round fight, 156 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:11,840 Speaker 5: but yeah, if I could bet a Vera and over 157 00:07:11,880 --> 00:07:14,040 Speaker 5: two and a half, that's something I'm definitely going to 158 00:07:14,080 --> 00:07:14,680 Speaker 5: look for as well. 159 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:18,520 Speaker 3: What is it about Vera though about the slow starts? 160 00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:20,720 Speaker 3: Is that just is that an approach thing? Is that 161 00:07:21,000 --> 00:07:24,480 Speaker 3: is it a processing thing to his to his style? 162 00:07:25,360 --> 00:07:27,080 Speaker 3: Can you put either of you put your finger on 163 00:07:27,080 --> 00:07:28,400 Speaker 3: what that is about. 164 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 5: There's some fighters in general, like Pyotrianna is in that 165 00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:34,840 Speaker 5: same category who consistently lose round one. It seems like 166 00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:37,240 Speaker 5: they're trying to make their reads, trying to get their 167 00:07:37,280 --> 00:07:40,160 Speaker 5: timing down, and then once they have that timing, they 168 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:42,520 Speaker 5: just sort of amp up the pace and start pouring 169 00:07:42,560 --> 00:07:44,760 Speaker 5: it on opponents. So I Billy could maybe speak to 170 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:46,760 Speaker 5: it more than I can. I'm not sure what it 171 00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:50,480 Speaker 5: is specifically with Vera, but for me, it's probably getting 172 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:52,880 Speaker 5: their reads, getting their timing down, and then once they 173 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:54,560 Speaker 5: feel comfortable, they start letting it go. 174 00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's definitely a big part of it. 175 00:07:56,720 --> 00:07:58,840 Speaker 4: I also think strategically, so it's just they know they're 176 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:00,400 Speaker 4: going to be in a long fight. If you're a 177 00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 4: guy lever who doesn't put people away with one big shot. 178 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:04,840 Speaker 4: You know you're going to have to land a bunch 179 00:08:04,880 --> 00:08:06,840 Speaker 4: of punches. That's going to be a lot easier if 180 00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:08,840 Speaker 4: the other guys burn more energy than you early on. 181 00:08:09,280 --> 00:08:11,840 Speaker 4: And then just from a psychological standpoint, like a lot 182 00:08:11,920 --> 00:08:13,440 Speaker 4: of people, they kind of need to get hit, They 183 00:08:13,440 --> 00:08:14,800 Speaker 4: need to get in there and mix it up before 184 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:16,720 Speaker 4: it's really like, oh, I'm in a fight, I'm doing this, 185 00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:19,960 Speaker 4: And that's something I think that you would imagine that 186 00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:22,600 Speaker 4: deep into a UFC career, something that's worked out of people. 187 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:24,840 Speaker 4: Obviously never got to that level where I can speak 188 00:08:24,880 --> 00:08:27,560 Speaker 4: to that, but I definitely had fights, especially early in 189 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 4: my career, where I wasn't really fighting until I got 190 00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:32,160 Speaker 4: hit the first good time, or something bad happened, or 191 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:33,959 Speaker 4: you kind of get woken up. And I don't know 192 00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:35,920 Speaker 4: how much of that psychological stuff is at play with 193 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:38,880 Speaker 4: some of these long standing veterans versus just strategy, but 194 00:08:38,960 --> 00:08:41,320 Speaker 4: I think there's certainly something worth considering there where they 195 00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:42,959 Speaker 4: just need to let a little bit of a wake 196 00:08:43,040 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 4: up call. 197 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:48,320 Speaker 3: Moving on to Sean and Billy's favorite underdog plays, and 198 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:52,439 Speaker 3: we kind of already did this by the main event, discussion. 199 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 3: But it's another reminder to look around to find ways 200 00:08:57,320 --> 00:09:00,319 Speaker 3: to get an edge, as it pertains to show the 201 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:03,560 Speaker 3: odds and all of these opportunities when you bet UFC 202 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:07,439 Speaker 3: in these these different books that give you chances to 203 00:09:07,480 --> 00:09:08,840 Speaker 3: get involved in different ways. 204 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:12,040 Speaker 2: But of course, when we give out the favorite underdog, we're. 205 00:09:11,920 --> 00:09:15,280 Speaker 3: Talking pre fight and what the odds look like, Zerillo, 206 00:09:15,559 --> 00:09:18,240 Speaker 3: Is there something that jumps out at you when it 207 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:18,920 Speaker 3: comes to a dog. 208 00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:21,480 Speaker 6: Yes, so just as a caveat. 209 00:09:21,640 --> 00:09:23,680 Speaker 5: Billy and I are about to give out four picks, 210 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:25,520 Speaker 5: both of our underdogs, my Fight of the night pick 211 00:09:25,559 --> 00:09:28,320 Speaker 5: and Billy's best bet, where each of the fighters that 212 00:09:28,320 --> 00:09:30,400 Speaker 5: we give out who are underdogs could lose on the 213 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:33,679 Speaker 5: first punch, and that is just like what you have 214 00:09:33,760 --> 00:09:36,600 Speaker 5: to accept betting some of these underdogs in MMA. Sometimes 215 00:09:36,679 --> 00:09:39,920 Speaker 5: you may bet the price plus three hundred plus two 216 00:09:39,920 --> 00:09:44,400 Speaker 5: to fifty knowing the first exchange the first punch, they 217 00:09:44,400 --> 00:09:47,000 Speaker 5: may just fold in half like a chair and you 218 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:49,680 Speaker 5: lose your bet in ten seconds, and that is difficult 219 00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:52,760 Speaker 5: to stomach going in and you may get trolled for 220 00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:56,400 Speaker 5: picking a fighter who loses immediately whatever, But if you understand, 221 00:09:56,400 --> 00:09:59,040 Speaker 5: if you can accept that fact that you may lose 222 00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:02,280 Speaker 5: your bet immediate. It makes it a bit more a 223 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:04,800 Speaker 5: bit easier to stomach betting some of these fighters, and 224 00:10:04,880 --> 00:10:08,240 Speaker 5: Nate Landware in the Komain event certainly falls into that category. 225 00:10:08,240 --> 00:10:11,360 Speaker 5: He has been finished twice in round one in the UFC, 226 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:15,240 Speaker 5: going against the guy who's very, very powerful and durable 227 00:10:15,760 --> 00:10:20,360 Speaker 5: in David Onama. But Landwaere has been all around the world, 228 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:22,640 Speaker 5: fought some of the best guys in Russia. I believe 229 00:10:22,640 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 5: he's a former M one champion. Skill for skill, I 230 00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:29,120 Speaker 5: think he's actually the better fighter than David Oama. But 231 00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:33,760 Speaker 5: the physical characteristics of Onama, land War's durability, Onama's power, 232 00:10:34,520 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 5: I think is what have people favoring Onama here. But 233 00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:39,400 Speaker 5: the line is just way too wide in terms of 234 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:42,960 Speaker 5: the skill discrepancy. The way Landward fights, He's always going 235 00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:45,800 Speaker 5: to come forward, going to push a pace for fifteen minutes, 236 00:10:46,120 --> 00:10:49,400 Speaker 5: has phenomenal cardio. He's a former D one track athlete, 237 00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:52,520 Speaker 5: so he can go for all fifteen minutes, maintain a pace, 238 00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:55,760 Speaker 5: stay in your face, and he's really going to frustrate 239 00:10:55,760 --> 00:10:58,840 Speaker 5: Onama if Onama cannot finish him in round one, and 240 00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:00,839 Speaker 5: I think the longer the fight go is the better 241 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:03,080 Speaker 5: it's gonna be for Landwher. So Landwarer is sitting around 242 00:11:03,080 --> 00:11:06,720 Speaker 5: plus two seventy, I'd have a tough time getting him 243 00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:09,920 Speaker 5: just looking at the fight, probably above plus two hundred 244 00:11:09,920 --> 00:11:13,760 Speaker 5: it maybe even above plus one fifty. The durability is 245 00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:16,400 Speaker 5: the concern, but scope for skill, I think he's probably 246 00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:19,240 Speaker 5: the better fighter, likely has the grappling edge here too. 247 00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:23,160 Speaker 5: Onama can be taken down. He tends to pop back up, 248 00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:26,319 Speaker 5: but you can put him on the ground. Seems very durable. 249 00:11:26,679 --> 00:11:29,280 Speaker 5: So maybe even Landward by decision plus five hundred plus 250 00:11:29,360 --> 00:11:32,079 Speaker 5: five to fifty could be even better than his money line. 251 00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:34,240 Speaker 6: I might poke that in addition to playing his money line. 252 00:11:34,840 --> 00:11:37,360 Speaker 5: The line is just a bit too disrespectful for a 253 00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:39,240 Speaker 5: guy who's very well round it fought a ton of 254 00:11:39,240 --> 00:11:42,880 Speaker 5: good competition, fought better fighters than David o'ama. Just the 255 00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:45,720 Speaker 5: durability is the main concern. But if he survives, this 256 00:11:45,760 --> 00:11:47,000 Speaker 5: is gonna be a very difficult fighter. 257 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:47,839 Speaker 2: Okay, Billy. 258 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:50,120 Speaker 3: With that being said, which fighter are you picking that's 259 00:11:50,160 --> 00:11:52,000 Speaker 3: gonna lose on the first punch potentially? 260 00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:55,559 Speaker 4: Yeah? No, I really appreciate Sean set up on that one, 261 00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:57,679 Speaker 4: because there's there's a lot of lines on this card 262 00:11:57,720 --> 00:12:00,079 Speaker 4: where it's like, I don't really think the underdog is 263 00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:02,240 Speaker 4: going to win necessarily, but I think he's got better 264 00:12:02,240 --> 00:12:03,800 Speaker 4: than a one in three chance or one and four 265 00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:06,320 Speaker 4: chance or whatever the line is. And you know, I've 266 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:08,840 Speaker 4: made the mistake of checking the YouTube comments on these occasionally, 267 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 4: and there's a lot of people who don't really understand 268 00:12:10,559 --> 00:12:13,680 Speaker 4: that concept. But you know, forgetting a guy like Sean saying, 269 00:12:13,679 --> 00:12:15,679 Speaker 4: who could lose on the first punch if he's plus 270 00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:17,439 Speaker 4: three hundred, we only need to get that right one 271 00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:19,760 Speaker 4: out of every four times. So you know, there's just 272 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:21,760 Speaker 4: a lot of those on here where if there's some 273 00:12:21,840 --> 00:12:24,520 Speaker 4: kind of point spread type system in MMA, where say, hey, 274 00:12:24,520 --> 00:12:26,720 Speaker 4: this guy puts up a good fight but doesn't necessarily win, 275 00:12:27,120 --> 00:12:28,720 Speaker 4: there's a lot of those that would be good for that. 276 00:12:28,840 --> 00:12:31,840 Speaker 4: But I'm looking at Charlie on Tavero's who you know, 277 00:12:31,880 --> 00:12:33,679 Speaker 4: as Sean's pointed out with Nate Land where he has 278 00:12:33,679 --> 00:12:35,559 Speaker 4: been stopped twice in the first round of both of 279 00:12:35,600 --> 00:12:37,960 Speaker 4: his first two UFC fights. Never seen him win in 280 00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:40,360 Speaker 4: the UFC, but okay, one of them was a sucker 281 00:12:40,400 --> 00:12:42,840 Speaker 4: round stopping I apologize. His first fight in the UFC 282 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:45,199 Speaker 4: was all the way up at middleweight against Kevin Holland, 283 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:49,440 Speaker 4: and he's a true lightweight. He's fighting Gabriel Benitez Moggli 284 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:52,280 Speaker 4: as they call him, and I just can't see Benitez 285 00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:54,959 Speaker 4: as a minus three fifty favorite against really anybody in 286 00:12:55,000 --> 00:12:57,000 Speaker 4: the UFC. At this point. Benitez is one and four 287 00:12:57,120 --> 00:13:00,000 Speaker 4: over his last five. His only win was against Justin Jane, 288 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:02,240 Speaker 4: who was in like a six fight losing streak, including 289 00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:04,880 Speaker 4: his first fight outside of the UFC, So you know, 290 00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:07,320 Speaker 4: it's not a super impressive win in retrospect for Magli. 291 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:09,319 Speaker 4: And you know, like I said with Anna Varos, he 292 00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:11,960 Speaker 4: fought up two weight classes against Kevin Holland, who's you know, 293 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:14,920 Speaker 4: a ranked guy at the weight class at various points, 294 00:13:15,160 --> 00:13:17,160 Speaker 4: and then he had a TKO loss to Steve Garcia. 295 00:13:17,240 --> 00:13:19,079 Speaker 4: But in round one of that fight, he actually scored 296 00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:21,960 Speaker 4: two knockdowns on Garcia before getting taken down and then 297 00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:24,320 Speaker 4: beat on the ground in the second round. Benitez is 298 00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:25,960 Speaker 4: not a guy who goes for a lot of takedowns. 299 00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:28,559 Speaker 4: I think he's landed exactly one takedown in his very 300 00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:31,280 Speaker 4: long UFC career, so this is probably just a stand 301 00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:34,840 Speaker 4: up fight. Donaverros is six inches taller, five inches in reach, 302 00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:37,400 Speaker 4: and you know he's fighting guys, hasn't really shown us 303 00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:40,079 Speaker 4: that he's a great fighter. So he was about two 304 00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:41,920 Speaker 4: ninety earlier in the week, and I was really hoping 305 00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:43,520 Speaker 4: that would hold up this point, so you guys could 306 00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 4: get it too. But you can still find some two 307 00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:47,559 Speaker 4: eighties out there to seventy five's all over the place. 308 00:13:47,880 --> 00:13:49,720 Speaker 4: So this is one I would definitely bet quick because 309 00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:51,120 Speaker 4: I think a lot of the money is coming in 310 00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:53,520 Speaker 4: on on Tavaros when they see Maggli is a minus 311 00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:55,760 Speaker 4: three fifty favorite, and don't think that should be the case. 312 00:13:56,000 --> 00:13:58,400 Speaker 5: Should also mention that Benitez is moving up from one 313 00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:00,480 Speaker 5: forty five to one to fifty five for this so 314 00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:03,560 Speaker 5: on top of Anti competing at middleweight in his debut, 315 00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:07,160 Speaker 5: being a huge lightweight, Benita is also probably more of 316 00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:08,040 Speaker 5: a natural featherweight. 317 00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:12,760 Speaker 3: Sean and Billy's fight of the night Bruno Silva Gerald Mehershard, 318 00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:14,560 Speaker 3: who's more of a free style guy. 319 00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:16,560 Speaker 2: They are. 320 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:21,520 Speaker 3: Looking at the lines, the money lines for both fighters 321 00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:24,480 Speaker 3: head to head here Silva at minus two eighty five, 322 00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:29,000 Speaker 3: Mayorshart is at plus two forty, So there's another underdog 323 00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:30,120 Speaker 3: in that range. 324 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:33,080 Speaker 2: Are are we zerrilla? Are we taking the cheese on 325 00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:35,320 Speaker 2: mayor Shark? Yeah? 326 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:36,640 Speaker 6: I like GM three here. 327 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:39,320 Speaker 5: I believe he's the UFC's all time leader in submission 328 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:42,640 Speaker 5: wins at middleweight and going against the guy who's lost 329 00:14:42,920 --> 00:14:45,440 Speaker 5: five times by submission. I think Silva is a pretty 330 00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:49,600 Speaker 5: low level grappler, got absolutely dominated on the mat for 331 00:14:49,640 --> 00:14:53,560 Speaker 5: ten minutes by Andrew Sanchez until Sanchez gassed out and 332 00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:56,240 Speaker 5: Silva knocked him out. Silva is a huge hitter, low 333 00:14:56,320 --> 00:15:00,960 Speaker 5: level grappler Mirshart, not the best durability and very hittable. 334 00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:04,680 Speaker 5: So again, another fight that could end on the first exchange. 335 00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:07,240 Speaker 5: If Meershark goes down from the first punch, it is 336 00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:10,240 Speaker 5: what it is. But if this fight gets extended, I 337 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:12,840 Speaker 5: expect Mierschhart to be able to grapple him take him down. 338 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:15,480 Speaker 5: The one issue is that Meershart usually doesn't try to 339 00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:17,760 Speaker 5: grapple until he gets hurt, so he may just get 340 00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:20,240 Speaker 5: put out and that's it and he never gets the 341 00:15:20,280 --> 00:15:23,200 Speaker 5: opportunity to grapple. But if he is proactive about the grappling, 342 00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:25,000 Speaker 5: I think he could certainly get this fight to the mat. 343 00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:29,240 Speaker 5: And one thing Silva does consistently wrong is give up 344 00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:32,000 Speaker 5: his back when he's trying to stand back up after 345 00:15:32,040 --> 00:15:35,640 Speaker 5: being taken down. Miershart will absolutely take advantage of that, 346 00:15:35,680 --> 00:15:38,240 Speaker 5: put the hooks in, lock in the body triangle and 347 00:15:38,360 --> 00:15:38,920 Speaker 5: choke him out. 348 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:40,080 Speaker 6: So Meershart on the. 349 00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:43,800 Speaker 5: Money line, inside the distance by submission, I think are 350 00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 5: all great bets. I could certainly see him winning a 351 00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:49,040 Speaker 5: decision with control time and Silva not getting submitted as well. 352 00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:52,160 Speaker 5: But I think Meershart very live to finish this fight 353 00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:54,560 Speaker 5: if he doesn't get knocked out first. I think he's 354 00:15:54,560 --> 00:15:58,880 Speaker 5: a tremendous underdog play, consistently underrated in the betting markets, 355 00:15:58,920 --> 00:16:00,680 Speaker 5: happy to take some stabs on Game three. 356 00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:04,640 Speaker 3: Bill, you might not be on him for his money line, 357 00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 3: but you have do you have a little confidence he 358 00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:10,160 Speaker 3: can keep this keep this fight alive for a few rounds? 359 00:16:10,560 --> 00:16:10,800 Speaker 4: Yeah? 360 00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:11,040 Speaker 5: You know. 361 00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:14,080 Speaker 4: The better I mentioned before this in our emails was 362 00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:16,200 Speaker 4: I'm looking at the over one and a half at 363 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:18,080 Speaker 4: plus money. It's like plus one oh four plus one 364 00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:20,120 Speaker 4: oh five, depend on where you look, and it really 365 00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:22,960 Speaker 4: is just a better on GM three keeping this one competitive. 366 00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:24,640 Speaker 4: You know, like I said before, there's a lot of 367 00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:28,200 Speaker 4: these lines where I don't necessarily expect the underdog to win, 368 00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:29,560 Speaker 4: but I think he's going to do a lot better 369 00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:32,440 Speaker 4: than the betting markets give him credit for. And you know, 370 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:35,400 Speaker 4: Sean mentioned Silvo getting dominated on the ground of some 371 00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:37,600 Speaker 4: of his past fights, but he hasn't been submitted since 372 00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:40,440 Speaker 4: twenty sixteen. He's managed to survive those exchanges and not 373 00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:42,760 Speaker 4: get tapped out. He doesn't do a lot well when 374 00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:44,360 Speaker 4: he's on the ground. It's kind of just hanging on 375 00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:46,320 Speaker 4: for dear life. But if he gets taken down in 376 00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:48,640 Speaker 4: round one, you know, hangs on for dear life, lands 377 00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:50,960 Speaker 4: a few good shots from they're standing, rinse and repeat. 378 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:53,000 Speaker 4: That's a pretty easy way for this one to go over. 379 00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:55,720 Speaker 4: I don't see Me or Shark going super hard to 380 00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:58,200 Speaker 4: try to tap him out immediately. I expect if he does, 381 00:16:58,240 --> 00:17:00,480 Speaker 4: it's going to happen late and then really just kind 382 00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:02,680 Speaker 4: of crossing your fingers and hope that Meshark can survive 383 00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:04,480 Speaker 4: that first exchange or two and get it to the ground. 384 00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:06,560 Speaker 4: So I think he is a far better fighter than 385 00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:09,400 Speaker 4: his money line odds would indicate. And I might sprinkle 386 00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:11,800 Speaker 4: a little bit on mayor Shark, but I really just 387 00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:13,560 Speaker 4: think he's going to keep this one closer, try to 388 00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:15,320 Speaker 4: control as much of it as you can on the ground, 389 00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:17,439 Speaker 4: but not take any risks, you know, to give up 390 00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:19,200 Speaker 4: position to go for big submissions. 391 00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:21,320 Speaker 2: Okay, moving right along again. 392 00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:24,560 Speaker 3: UFC Fight Night Vera Cruz the main event, which we 393 00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:26,040 Speaker 3: discussed off the top of the show. 394 00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:28,040 Speaker 6: If you're just you know, hopping in and. 395 00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:31,560 Speaker 3: You just scroll through, but all likelihood you probably heard 396 00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:33,480 Speaker 3: the beginning of the show. But again, as the Action 397 00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:36,680 Speaker 3: Network podcast, you have ce betting preview. They're doing it 398 00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:40,679 Speaker 3: at the Pachanga Arena. It's just like saying that in 399 00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:43,680 Speaker 3: San Diego Pachanga, I do some lacrossework and there's a 400 00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:45,959 Speaker 3: lacrosse team that now plays their games there too, So 401 00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:49,120 Speaker 3: when I saw the Pachanga Arena, I'm like, no Pachanga Arenas. 402 00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:54,280 Speaker 3: It's a useful little place. Moving moving on to our 403 00:17:54,320 --> 00:17:57,480 Speaker 3: favorite pops. Okay, very good. So we haven't done a 404 00:17:57,480 --> 00:18:01,200 Speaker 3: few discussions about underdogs. How about our favorits, and sometimes 405 00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:05,639 Speaker 3: we get very lucky when Zarillo or Billy provide a 406 00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:07,800 Speaker 3: plus money play and both have that today, So Sean, 407 00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:09,360 Speaker 3: you can go first on a prop play. 408 00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:13,960 Speaker 5: Odae Osbourne by decision around plus two twenty. He's fighting 409 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:16,520 Speaker 5: Tyson Nam down at flywait Flywight, one of the lower 410 00:18:16,520 --> 00:18:20,320 Speaker 5: finishing rates. Both of these guys kind of fight to 411 00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:22,840 Speaker 5: a style where you would expect to finish. But if 412 00:18:22,880 --> 00:18:25,960 Speaker 5: this does go to a decision, maybe some Osborne decision 413 00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:28,760 Speaker 5: only props. If this does go to a decision, I 414 00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:31,480 Speaker 5: expect Osborne to have way more volume at the end 415 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:33,520 Speaker 5: of the fight. Tysonam just never lets his hands go. 416 00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:37,280 Speaker 5: Big counter puncher, huge right hand, but when he can't 417 00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:40,680 Speaker 5: land that right hand, he pretty much just seedes volume 418 00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:44,480 Speaker 5: to his opponents and gets outlanded by fairly significant margins. 419 00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:48,439 Speaker 5: Osbourne a five inch reach advantage. Younger, faster, may have 420 00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:50,679 Speaker 5: cardio issues down the stretch, that's the one concerned. He 421 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:53,520 Speaker 5: tends to fall off after about five to seven minutes. 422 00:18:53,520 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 5: But if Nam is never going to let his hands go, 423 00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:58,600 Speaker 5: he's probably going to fall behind even against a tiring 424 00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:02,399 Speaker 5: Odie Osbourne anyway, So Nam, very old for flyweight, may 425 00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:03,760 Speaker 5: get finished coming back off. 426 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:05,200 Speaker 6: Of a long layoff leave. 427 00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:07,240 Speaker 5: He's thirty eight or thirty nine, which is not a 428 00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:09,600 Speaker 5: good look for flyweight. That's about six years above the 429 00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:12,440 Speaker 5: divisional average in terms of age, and when that speed 430 00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:16,440 Speaker 5: drops off, these guys drop off. Precipitously, but Osborne should 431 00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:18,200 Speaker 5: win the majority of minutes in this fight just with 432 00:19:18,280 --> 00:19:21,359 Speaker 5: superior volume. So by decision of plus T twenty nam 433 00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:22,480 Speaker 5: is typically durable. 434 00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:23,120 Speaker 4: I like that. 435 00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:25,800 Speaker 2: Bet what you got for a pilly in the prop market. 436 00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:28,200 Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, I'm getting a little speculative on how 437 00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:30,400 Speaker 4: one of these fighters is gonna respond. But I'm looking 438 00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:34,120 Speaker 4: at the rescheduled match between Priscilla Kesha Haya and Arian Lipski. 439 00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:36,680 Speaker 4: So the backstory on this, They're supposed to fight last 440 00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:39,040 Speaker 4: week at one twenty five. Lipski came in at like 441 00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:42,399 Speaker 4: one twenty eight point something and then wasn't medically cleared 442 00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:44,720 Speaker 4: to continue with the fight, even though Ketsha Haa was 443 00:19:44,840 --> 00:19:46,840 Speaker 4: willing to do it. So that tells me she had 444 00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:48,480 Speaker 4: a pretty big cut just to get to one twenty 445 00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:51,040 Speaker 4: eight one twenty nine. They only pushed it back a week. 446 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:53,200 Speaker 4: You know, this was just last week that happened. I'm 447 00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:55,440 Speaker 4: guessing if she was depleted that much to get down 448 00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:57,399 Speaker 4: to the one twenty eight range, she walks around a 449 00:19:57,440 --> 00:19:59,080 Speaker 4: little bit heavier than one thirty five. I don't think 450 00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:01,239 Speaker 4: a six pound cut would done that to anyone. So 451 00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:04,160 Speaker 4: now we're asking this fighter who couldn't make weight last 452 00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:06,840 Speaker 4: time and then couldn't even get medically cleared after missing 453 00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:08,879 Speaker 4: weight by almost three pounds. We're asking her to do 454 00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:11,119 Speaker 4: it again. I'll be it at one thirty five this week, 455 00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:12,840 Speaker 4: but I still think that's going to be somewhat of 456 00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:15,520 Speaker 4: a cut for her. I'm guessing after not being medically 457 00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:17,439 Speaker 4: cleared last week, they pumped her full of fluid, she 458 00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:19,480 Speaker 4: got her pedia LTE, she got her Gator Aid, possibly 459 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:22,040 Speaker 4: even an IVY. All that bounced back up a little bit. 460 00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:24,359 Speaker 4: I don't think that's a good situation to be in 461 00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:26,600 Speaker 4: if you're a fighter that short thereafter. You know, I'd 462 00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:28,040 Speaker 4: like to see this fight a month down the line 463 00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:30,400 Speaker 4: or whatever. And you know, we talked about catch Hay 464 00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:32,480 Speaker 4: last week. They call her zombie girl. She walks forward, 465 00:20:32,480 --> 00:20:34,119 Speaker 4: throws a ton of punchers, not a lot of interest 466 00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:37,160 Speaker 4: in defense. But if she's fighting a depleted area and Lipski, 467 00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:39,520 Speaker 4: I think she can put her away. And you're getting 468 00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:42,120 Speaker 4: plus five hundred on that her knockout odds, which are 469 00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:44,600 Speaker 4: by far the more likely way this is going to go. 470 00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:46,919 Speaker 4: It's plus five fifty, but I'm willing to, you know, 471 00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:49,480 Speaker 4: spend that little bit of extra juice just to get 472 00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:52,760 Speaker 4: the club and sub potential covered too, So plus five 473 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:55,960 Speaker 4: hundred against what's probably an extremely depleted fighter. You know, 474 00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:58,480 Speaker 4: I really don't like having to make a fighter cut 475 00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:01,320 Speaker 4: week back, cut weight and back weeks like that, especially 476 00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:03,679 Speaker 4: when it went so poorly the first time. So for 477 00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:06,600 Speaker 4: plus five hundred, I really catch a inside the distance. 478 00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:09,040 Speaker 5: Westive is dealing with the after effects of COVID. That's 479 00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:11,360 Speaker 5: why our camp said she probably missed weight. We've seen 480 00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:14,760 Speaker 5: a number of fighters come back after recent bouts with 481 00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:18,920 Speaker 5: COVID look absolutely sluggish and awful inside the octagon. Jeff 482 00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:21,800 Speaker 5: Neil one of them, looked very bad in his fights 483 00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:25,440 Speaker 5: against Neil Magne and WonderBoy Lo's phenomenal in his last 484 00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:28,280 Speaker 5: fight last week. So take some time to bounce back 485 00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:29,280 Speaker 5: off agetting COVID too. 486 00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:32,600 Speaker 3: Okay, before we go to best bets, we do a 487 00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:36,760 Speaker 3: DFS breakdown like we always do before we before we 488 00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:39,320 Speaker 3: go again. Sometimes folks can't get involved with the betting 489 00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:43,240 Speaker 3: stuff because of the the legalization in states, so you know, 490 00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:44,480 Speaker 3: and DFS. 491 00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:45,119 Speaker 2: Is widely available. 492 00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:48,879 Speaker 3: We've got thirteen fights on the card on the slate, 493 00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:52,360 Speaker 3: and we've got four fighters in the nine K range. 494 00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:54,800 Speaker 3: Sometimes we normally get five, so that means we have 495 00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:56,800 Speaker 3: got more in the eight K range and seven K 496 00:21:56,840 --> 00:22:00,719 Speaker 3: and only one fighter in that sub seven k. Billy 497 00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:05,280 Speaker 3: similarities differences to cash games, GPPs, How are you looking 498 00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:08,560 Speaker 3: at the card here with with thirteen fights to choose from? 499 00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:11,439 Speaker 4: Yeah, I've been on here complaining about the DFS slates 500 00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:13,680 Speaker 4: for a few weeks in a row. Gotta say love 501 00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:15,440 Speaker 4: this one. You know, Sean and I have both given 502 00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:17,959 Speaker 4: out some of our underdog plays that we see angles 503 00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:21,159 Speaker 4: on that one fighter below seven k, Charlie on Tavero, 504 00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:24,280 Speaker 4: so we talked about fantastic GPPO play. We should be 505 00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:27,440 Speaker 4: two weight classes bigger than Magley only sixty nine hundred. 506 00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:30,040 Speaker 4: You know I just mentioned Catcher, haah, she's only seventy 507 00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:34,160 Speaker 4: five hundred. Who al Miershark seventy two hundred. I'm gonna 508 00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:35,960 Speaker 4: get to Jason Witt and our best bets at seventy 509 00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:38,800 Speaker 4: one hundred. So this one just feels wide open for GPPs. 510 00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:40,479 Speaker 4: I'm gonna mix and match some of those guys in 511 00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:43,239 Speaker 4: along with you know, Quinlan at the top, Silva the 512 00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:46,280 Speaker 4: top Onama at eighty six hundred. It just feels like 513 00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:48,640 Speaker 4: we have more salary than we need for the first 514 00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:51,000 Speaker 4: time in a long time. But yeah, you know the 515 00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:53,080 Speaker 4: one big difference for cash games, You're gonna play both 516 00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:55,080 Speaker 4: Vera and Cruz. Both guys have a ton of volume. 517 00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:57,200 Speaker 4: There should be a lot of total points scored here. 518 00:22:57,440 --> 00:22:59,560 Speaker 4: You know, we're not gonna worry about where which fighter 519 00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:01,840 Speaker 4: scores those points. And then there's a lot of fights 520 00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:03,879 Speaker 4: with long oddstend inside the distance, so you mix and 521 00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:06,560 Speaker 4: match those guys. For GPPs, I think whoever's in the 522 00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:09,119 Speaker 4: main event, whoever the winner is in the main event, 523 00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:12,320 Speaker 4: almost certainly makes it into the optimal. It just feels 524 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:14,080 Speaker 4: like an easy one here. And I understand that, you know, 525 00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:17,399 Speaker 4: everyone else has the same fighter pool and salaries that 526 00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:19,280 Speaker 4: I'm seeing too, so they're gonna feel that way too. 527 00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:21,800 Speaker 4: But I really like this one for the FS, and 528 00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:23,480 Speaker 4: I'm just gonna mix and match some of those cheaper 529 00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:25,080 Speaker 4: fighters that Sean and I have both mentioned. 530 00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:28,399 Speaker 2: Get away in Shawn, any thoughts angles. 531 00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:31,119 Speaker 5: Catch you eras seventy five hundred, merrors charts seventy two hundred, 532 00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:33,320 Speaker 5: and then, like Billy said, I'm probably gonna set a 533 00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:36,520 Speaker 5: rule to use either one of the fighters in the 534 00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:38,959 Speaker 5: main event in all my lineup building around those three. 535 00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:41,840 Speaker 6: I'll make the match from there. Okay, very good, all. 536 00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:45,080 Speaker 3: Right, as we do, we close the show with best 537 00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:49,160 Speaker 3: bets for UFC Fight Night again. It's going down at 538 00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:53,040 Speaker 3: Pachanga Arena Vera Cruz. I promise this last time. 539 00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:53,520 Speaker 2: I'll say it. 540 00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:57,640 Speaker 3: Okay, fellas, what do we got. We'll go to Sean first, 541 00:23:57,640 --> 00:23:58,080 Speaker 3: then Billy. 542 00:23:58,400 --> 00:23:58,560 Speaker 4: Yeah. 543 00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:00,440 Speaker 5: I'm not sure if it's my best bot on the Normally, 544 00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:01,959 Speaker 5: when we get to the best bet section, I have 545 00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:04,120 Speaker 5: a bet that like really stands out from the rest 546 00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:06,040 Speaker 5: of the car to as my favorite bet. But another 547 00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:09,080 Speaker 5: bet I talked about Meersharp might be my favorite bet. 548 00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:12,440 Speaker 5: But one other bet that I really like is the 549 00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:15,280 Speaker 5: opener on the car to Yusef Salal and demand Black 550 00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:18,439 Speaker 5: Share Black Sheer making his UFC debut. I like this 551 00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:20,160 Speaker 5: fight to go to a decision, you have to lay 552 00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:22,920 Speaker 5: some juice around minus two hundred. I think this line 553 00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:26,399 Speaker 5: should be closer to minus three hundred. Neither guy is 554 00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:29,960 Speaker 5: a particularly big finisher, and both guys are very durable 555 00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:33,960 Speaker 5: and have good submission defense, so I see a difficult 556 00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:36,520 Speaker 5: time with one of these guys getting finished, aside from 557 00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:39,840 Speaker 5: one of them getting injured. Is the law coming down 558 00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:42,439 Speaker 5: from one forty five to one thirty five probably a 559 00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:46,159 Speaker 5: more suitable weight class for him. Black Sheheer a former 560 00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:49,800 Speaker 5: one forty five himself, so the size parody should be 561 00:24:49,800 --> 00:24:53,760 Speaker 5: pretty even here between two former featherweights said, both durable, 562 00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:57,280 Speaker 5: both of good cardio. Nine career losses for the two 563 00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:00,600 Speaker 5: all by decision, so neither one is and finished in 564 00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:04,679 Speaker 5: their career. The outcome who wins the fights close to 565 00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:07,080 Speaker 5: a pickup should come down to who is stronger in 566 00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:10,800 Speaker 5: the grappling exchanges. Maybe a lall edges it out late 567 00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:12,879 Speaker 5: because Black Cheer is coming in on short notice, but 568 00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:15,560 Speaker 5: Black Sheers fights all the time. This guy who stays 569 00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:18,000 Speaker 5: in camp should be in good shape. I think it's 570 00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:20,000 Speaker 5: gonna be a close, competitive fight. I see it going 571 00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:24,400 Speaker 5: all fifteen minutes. Other than Black Sheheer short notice concerns, 572 00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:26,720 Speaker 5: which I said, I don't really have major concerns about. 573 00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:28,879 Speaker 5: I have a tough time seeing somebody finish here. So 574 00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:32,159 Speaker 5: Black Cheer ends the law to go to a decision 575 00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:33,160 Speaker 5: around minus t hundred. 576 00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:37,280 Speaker 3: What feels like the theme of the show not necessarily 577 00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:41,320 Speaker 3: just underdogs, but the plus money has has been a 578 00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:43,960 Speaker 3: theme here, and like Billy said before. You know, you 579 00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:46,640 Speaker 3: hit one out of every four here, you feel good, 580 00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:48,639 Speaker 3: and Billy, you're going you're going that direction for your 581 00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:49,120 Speaker 3: best bet. 582 00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:52,400 Speaker 4: Yeah, And sticking with the theme of my last bat, 583 00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:55,000 Speaker 4: which is one of the rescheduled bouts from last weekend, 584 00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:57,960 Speaker 4: I'm Jason Witt at plus two thirty five. You know, 585 00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:00,440 Speaker 4: even if this weren't avery rescheduled bout and there weren't 586 00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:02,080 Speaker 4: the backstory that I'm going to get to in a second, 587 00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:04,680 Speaker 4: I think that's probably pretty long on him fighting a 588 00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:07,399 Speaker 4: five and zero fighter who's making his UFC debut. You 589 00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:09,760 Speaker 4: know now that Jason Whitt is a rank contender, you know, 590 00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:12,120 Speaker 4: this top guy or anything. He's been around a while, 591 00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:13,760 Speaker 4: he knows what he's doing in there, and he's fighting 592 00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:16,919 Speaker 4: a fairly green prospect. But the real reason I'm on 593 00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:20,359 Speaker 4: this one is the reason this voute got rescheduled is 594 00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:24,560 Speaker 4: because Quinland tested positive for like trace amounts of metabolites 595 00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:28,159 Speaker 4: of a steroid last weekend in Nevada and California is 596 00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:30,359 Speaker 4: a little bit looser than Nevada. What that is We 597 00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:32,520 Speaker 4: saw this happen with John Jones three or four years ago, 598 00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:34,840 Speaker 4: where they moved the whole card to California because he 599 00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:37,560 Speaker 4: had trace amounts for performance enhancing drug. But what that 600 00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:38,959 Speaker 4: tells me is, you know, this is the guy who 601 00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:41,679 Speaker 4: failed his drug test following his Contender Series win. He 602 00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:45,040 Speaker 4: was tested during that whole suspension and tested clean, and 603 00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:46,640 Speaker 4: then the first time he had to do a white cut, 604 00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,159 Speaker 4: some of those metabolites came into his system. But that 605 00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:50,960 Speaker 4: tells me that this is probably the first time in 606 00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:53,720 Speaker 4: his career that he'll be fighting clean or almost clean. 607 00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:56,240 Speaker 4: And I think, you know, we're building these lines based 608 00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:58,560 Speaker 4: on a probably enhanced fighter who fought in a lot 609 00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:01,480 Speaker 4: of smaller areas where they don't do his tringent DUG 610 00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:04,320 Speaker 4: testing as they're gonna do in Nevada, California, et cetera. 611 00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:06,680 Speaker 4: So Nevada said they were cool with it. They weren't 612 00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:09,280 Speaker 4: going to try to suspend him, you know, outside of Nevada, 613 00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:11,760 Speaker 4: but they weren't gonna let him fight. And my first 614 00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:13,399 Speaker 4: thought was, you know, maybe he's still gonna be enhanced, 615 00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:14,800 Speaker 4: But I actually think it's the other way. I think 616 00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:16,919 Speaker 4: he's been trying to be clean this whole time, and 617 00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:19,720 Speaker 4: basically we're getting the money line on the enhanced version 618 00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:21,520 Speaker 4: of him, and that's not the one that's going to 619 00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:24,200 Speaker 4: show up on Saturday. So Jason Witt at plus two 620 00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:26,199 Speaker 4: thirty five now feels like a value to me. 621 00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:29,640 Speaker 5: I should mention to wit Awful Awful Chin, another guy 622 00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:32,080 Speaker 5: who could die on the first punch. But this fight 623 00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:33,920 Speaker 5: is taking place at a catchweight of one to eighty 624 00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:36,919 Speaker 5: instead of one seventy and he typically has a pretty 625 00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:41,160 Speaker 5: difficult weightcut, so not having to cut those extra ten 626 00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:43,280 Speaker 5: pounds should help him a little bit in terms of 627 00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:46,200 Speaker 5: durability and his cardio down the stretch where if he's 628 00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:48,040 Speaker 5: an aggressive wrestler, contend to win. 629 00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:50,919 Speaker 2: Okay, that's gonna do it. 630 00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:55,800 Speaker 3: For our UFC Fight Night betting preview Vera the Cruise again. 631 00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:56,920 Speaker 2: It goes down tomorrow. 632 00:27:57,080 --> 00:28:00,119 Speaker 3: Main card pre limbs available on ESPN, ESPN Plus yes 633 00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:04,440 Speaker 3: not no no pay per view, so it is available 634 00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:09,000 Speaker 3: if you have those that service ESPN. So okay for 635 00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:13,399 Speaker 3: Billy Ward, Sean Zarrillo, Brendan Glasheen, you both have a 636 00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:16,480 Speaker 3: great weekend and again we'll join you very soon on 637 00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:19,639 Speaker 3: the Action Network podcast. A lot coming your way on 638 00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:21,720 Speaker 3: the pod, of course, with the NFL season and the 639 00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:25,639 Speaker 3: college football season starting, so it's good to always have 640 00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:30,760 Speaker 3: the UFC Vetting previews also continue to make their rounds. 641 00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:32,440 Speaker 2: So thanks for tuning in everybody. 642 00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:34,760 Speaker 3: Good luck this weekend, enjoy, and we'll talk to you 643 00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:35,200 Speaker 3: next week.