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Speaker 1: Welcome to Stuff to Blow Your Mind, a production of

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Speaker 1: I Heart Radios How Stuff Works. Hey, you, welcome to

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Speaker 1: Stuff to Blow Your Mind. My name is Robert Lamb

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Speaker 1: and I'm Joe McCormick, and we're back with part two

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Speaker 1: of our discussion of overconfidence. That's right. If you did

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Speaker 1: not listen to the previous episode, do go back and

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Speaker 1: listen to that episode, because we're gonna lay the ground work.

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Speaker 1: We're going to discuss over confidence and hubrists and mythology

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Speaker 1: in human histories, and then get into the psychology of

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Speaker 1: it and what various psychological studies have revealed and continue

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Speaker 1: to reveal about the nature of over confidence and how

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Speaker 1: we can divide this sort of amorphous concept of over

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Speaker 1: confidence out into categories that can be more easily studied

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Speaker 1: and understood. That's right now. In the last episode, one

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Speaker 1: of the main things we talked about was this huge

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Speaker 1: new review of the scientific literature on something known as

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Speaker 1: the better than average effect, which is the tendency for

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Speaker 1: people to rate themselves as better than average with respect

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Speaker 1: to their peers on all kinds of stuff. One classic

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Speaker 1: example is that something like ninety three percent of people

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Speaker 1: think they're a better than average driver. So if you're

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Speaker 1: if you're listening to this as you drive, eyes back

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Speaker 1: on the road, and make sure you use this turn signals.

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Speaker 1: Turn signals, save lives, turn signals. Let other drivers and

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Speaker 1: pedestrians know what you intend to do. Even if you

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Speaker 1: think you're a great driver, drive like you're less good

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Speaker 1: than you are, and it will make you a better driver.

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Speaker 1: Drive like you can't see all the other cars and

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Speaker 1: pedestrians around you, because sometimes you cannot drive like you're

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Speaker 1: driving a murder weapon, because potentially you are. It's quite true,

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Speaker 1: all right. Now. One of the things we talked about

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Speaker 1: in the last episode was a paper from seventeen by

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Speaker 1: Don Amore and Derek Schatz called the Three Faces of Overconfidence,

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Speaker 1: which which actually broke over confidence down into three distinct

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Speaker 1: categories of of bias or misperception and uh. And we

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Speaker 1: we talked about those a little bit last time. We're

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Speaker 1: going to be exploring more of what that paper had

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Speaker 1: to say, and it's critiques of overconfidence research, specifically with

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Speaker 1: reference to these three types of overconfidence. And as a

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Speaker 1: brief refresher, the three types are overestimation, overplacement, and over precision.

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Speaker 1: Overestimation is thinking that you're better than you are, and

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Speaker 1: this would be with reference to some kind of uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, objective measure out in the world. So if

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Speaker 1: you think that you are taller than you are, you know,

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Speaker 1: if you think that you can jump higher than you can,

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Speaker 1: if you think that you would get a better score

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Speaker 1: on a test than you actually could, that's overestimation. The

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Speaker 1: next one, overplacement, is similar, but instead it's comparing yourself

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Speaker 1: with other people. So the better than average effect would

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Speaker 1: be an example of overplacement. It's, you know, thinking you

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Speaker 1: are better than average compared to your peers at some task.

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Speaker 1: Or it would be thinking that you know that you

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Speaker 1: work harder than other people, or thinking that you are

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Speaker 1: smarter than other people. Of course, with the if, it's

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Speaker 1: over confidence, meaning that those are not actually accurate assessments.

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Speaker 1: And then finally the other one would be over precision,

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Speaker 1: which is being too sure that you know the truth. Again,

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Speaker 1: this this might be called epistemic over confidence. It's just

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Speaker 1: being too certain that your beliefs are correct. Now, to

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Speaker 1: get into more in chats is paper from. One of

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Speaker 1: the questions that they address is what actually drives some

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Speaker 1: of these different effects as as they are manifested so

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Speaker 1: they start with overestimation. What causes us to say think

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Speaker 1: we would get a better score on a test than

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Speaker 1: we do, or to think we have more money in

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Speaker 1: the bank than we do. A common answer that people

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Speaker 1: give to this is the idea of wishful thinking. It

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Speaker 1: would feel good if this were true, therefore I believe it. Right. Uh.

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Speaker 1: The authors don't think that this explanation is very plausible,

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Speaker 1: and they offer several problems with it, and we can

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Speaker 1: interrogate these, maybe disagree with them as we go on.

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Speaker 1: But first of all, they say, you know, self delusion

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Speaker 1: is demonstrably maladaptive. For example, a tendency toward wishful thinking

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Speaker 1: about the safety of kissing sharks so with tongue is

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Speaker 1: not a trait that the environment will tend to select for.

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Speaker 1: People overconfident about their academic abilities will tend not to

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Speaker 1: study and actually do worse. People who believe themselves invulnerable

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Speaker 1: will take risks that sometimes get them killed. This might

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Speaker 1: seem obvious, but there is actually plenty of research on this.

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Speaker 1: I mean, people who are overconfident about their abilities do

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Speaker 1: face a lot of downsides when those abilities are put

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Speaker 1: to the test. Yeah, I mean, one example from literature

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Speaker 1: that comes to mind is that of Macbeth, who believes

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Speaker 1: himself protected by prophecy um and then of course uh

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Speaker 1: snuffs it because yeah, exactly. But then again, I think, okay,

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Speaker 1: so it is true that these people will face a

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Speaker 1: lot of downside, But then again, people do engage in

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Speaker 1: self destructive, self deluded behavior all the time. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is a common feature of human life. Yeah we

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Speaker 1: I mean, for instance, we were just recently talking about

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Speaker 1: the Placebo effect on our movie episode where we talked

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Speaker 1: about the fly and and about the possibility that the

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Speaker 1: Polacebo effect is basically due to uh, you know, this

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Speaker 1: innate tendency towards self delusion that may very well be adaptive.

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Speaker 1: And at least in this scenario, um, where yeah, we

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Speaker 1: we benefit from being able to believe something is going

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Speaker 1: to work and and uh and and and experiencing at

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Speaker 1: least a small physical benefit from it, like a small

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Speaker 1: curative benefit from it. And then um, you know, I

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Speaker 1: also can't help but think that, you know, self delusion

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Speaker 1: entails far more than just over confidence. It also entails

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Speaker 1: all manner of paranoia. And there is a strong case

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Speaker 1: for the adaptive nature of say making a type one

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Speaker 1: error in cognition, a false positive, the belief that the

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Speaker 1: rustle in the tall grass is that of a tiger

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Speaker 1: when it's not, because if you make the type two

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Speaker 1: uh or, you're more likely to be eaten by the tiger. Right, right, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: having accurate information about the world is actually very useful,

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Speaker 1: and having inaccurate information can kill you. Yeah, but but

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Speaker 1: I'm not so much you know, trying to to disagree

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Speaker 1: with the maladaptive self delusion argument that we mentioned earlier,

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Speaker 1: but but rather you know, to point out that the

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Speaker 1: human experiences is rife with self delusions. So might a

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Speaker 1: dash of overconfidence, even in the form of overestimation, served

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Speaker 1: to balance outh this alchemy of you know, of our

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Speaker 1: perception of reality. For example, so you have a karaoke singer,

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Speaker 1: and granted karaoke is very low stakes, but you could

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Speaker 1: involve social embarrassment, which you could fear would lead to ostracism,

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Speaker 1: and that's actually one of the most powerful negative motivators

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Speaker 1: on human behavior. Right, But again, at karaoke is also

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Speaker 1: one of these things where like sometimes it's cool to

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Speaker 1: do it badly. So this is not a perfect example,

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Speaker 1: but so you have a kara karaoke singer that imbibes

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Speaker 1: in a little liquid courage before taking the microphone, as

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Speaker 1: most karaoke participants are are are wont to do. Uh,

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Speaker 1: but yeah, they get a little liquid courage because they

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Speaker 1: know they don't have the greatest voice in the world.

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Speaker 1: And then they feel a little awkward getting up there.

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Speaker 1: But but they know that a little bit of booze

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Speaker 1: induced over confidence might help matters. I think you're exactly

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Speaker 1: right there, and this this is funny to start here

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Speaker 1: because I think while the authors make tons of good points,

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Speaker 1: this is one of the ones they make that I

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Speaker 1: might disagree with the most. I think that there are

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Speaker 1: antagonistic adaptations in human behavior. One pressure might favor having

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Speaker 1: an accurate picture of the world, assessing things in a

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Speaker 1: clear and accurate way, while a cross pressure favor self deception,

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Speaker 1: especially self deception in the form of over confidence. For example,

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Speaker 1: you might be more likely to survive if you have

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Speaker 1: accurate assessments of your own abilities, but you might be

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Speaker 1: more likely to take big risks with potentially big rewards

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Speaker 1: if you overestimate your abilities or self delusional. Over Confidence

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Speaker 1: could be adaptive because it helps us persuade or even

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Speaker 1: deceive other people about our worth. Yeah, Ultimately you have

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Speaker 1: to you have to believe in yourself if you know

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Speaker 1: other people are not going to believe in you for you,

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Speaker 1: right right. I mean, we we talked in the last

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Speaker 1: episode about how it's probably not a coincidence that you

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Speaker 1: really often notice over confidence in people who occupy high

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Speaker 1: status leadership roles. How they get there. I mean, it's

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Speaker 1: not hard to imagine the overconfidence helped them get to

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Speaker 1: that point. Yeah, and it's, uh, sometimes it's a fun,

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Speaker 1: sometimes terrifying exercise to like if you if you engage

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Speaker 1: with people like this and then when you realize, oh,

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Speaker 1: they're just really overconfident, they don't they're they're not to

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Speaker 1: say they're not skilled, but when you realize they're not.

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Speaker 1: Sometimes they're not. But sometimes you really you realize, oh,

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Speaker 1: there there is this gap between ability and uh and

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Speaker 1: and and what they're they're saying they're going to deliver

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Speaker 1: on or what they are estimating the future will consist of. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean, I it is kind of shocking how often

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Speaker 1: in life you will suddenly come to a realization that

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Speaker 1: you know, the boss or the leader or whatever's main

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Speaker 1: skill is b essing, like that they can just go

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Speaker 1: out there and wing it in a way that you

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Speaker 1: would be too timid and reserve to do. Right now,

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Speaker 1: this idea of you know, accurate assessments playing into our

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Speaker 1: our own abilities, I couldn't help but think of the

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Speaker 1: film Butch Casting and the Sun Dance Kid in this scenario,

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Speaker 1: because it really as it relates to two specific points

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Speaker 1: in the film. One is the whole would you make

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Speaker 1: that jump if you didn't have to scenario where they're

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Speaker 1: being tracked, they're being hunted, and they've come to this, uh,

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Speaker 1: this this cliff overlooking this river, and they realize that

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Speaker 1: if they jump, if they jump off this cliff and

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Speaker 1: they land in that river and they don't die, they'll

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Speaker 1: get away because the stakes are such that those pursuing

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Speaker 1: them will not follow them, they will not make that

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Speaker 1: jump if they don't need to. Um. So, so so

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Speaker 1: there's there's that, and then at the very end there's

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Speaker 1: kind of a going out the old fashioned way guns

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Speaker 1: ablazing scenario where they're cornered, they're going to slowly be

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Speaker 1: killed and they decided to just go for it, to

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Speaker 1: just bust out shooting and just fight. Right. So, so

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Speaker 1: the incentives, like the evolutionary incentives on a brain generating

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Speaker 1: accurate pictures of the world versus self deluded over confidence.

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Speaker 1: Those could very well be just the contrast between a

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Speaker 1: low risk, low reward strategy versus a high risk, high

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Speaker 1: reward strateke right, Yeah, so yeah, the first example definitely

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Speaker 1: high risk, high reward. Like it was pretty much their only,

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Speaker 1: their best option for survival at that point, and they

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Speaker 1: took it, and in the film they survive. At the

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Speaker 1: end of the film, it's pretty much implied that they die.

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Speaker 1: But but at the same time, it's it still seems

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Speaker 1: to be their best option, if not their best option

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Speaker 1: for surviving. It's kind of at least a like the

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Speaker 1: psychological best option. You know, are we gonna stay in

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Speaker 1: here and die like rats, or are we gonna you know,

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Speaker 1: just burst out there and you know, die like heroes

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Speaker 1: in a film that is named after them. You know, man,

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Speaker 1: that's a great movie. I want to go back and

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Speaker 1: why I haven't seen the Garsh remember, except the end,

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Speaker 1: I mean, the ending is kind of a downer, but uh,

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Speaker 1: but yeah, it's it's it's surprisingly sweet for for a

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Speaker 1: violent outlaw movie. Yeah, it's a good one. And you know,

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Speaker 1: I mentioned Macbeth earlier in the whole idea of you know,

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Speaker 1: draping himself in prophecy and using that to to to

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Speaker 1: to pump himself up. But that doesn't bring up bring

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Speaker 1: to mind the role of religion and all of this,

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Speaker 1: you know, I mean certainly a lot of the things

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Speaker 1: that religion can do to your estimation of ability or

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Speaker 1: you know, uh, you know, it can revolve around you know,

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Speaker 1: the survivability of the soul for example, you know, and

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Speaker 1: like what will happen if I act a certain way

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Speaker 1: in life? Yeah, and I think there could possibly be

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Speaker 1: cross pressure is going the same way with that. I

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Speaker 1: mean that that there are some evolutionary drawbacks and some

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Speaker 1: some advantages to it, right. And then of course that's

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Speaker 1: not to say that religious motivations, uh, you know exist

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Speaker 1: free of social of course, I guess you know, there's

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Speaker 1: going to be a rich interplay between those, and that's

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Speaker 1: you know, that's something that comes up, for instance, in

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Speaker 1: um when you look at studies of say, suicide bombers,

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Speaker 1: you know, where on one hand, you can look at

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Speaker 1: it and just go with the simple scenario of oh,

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Speaker 1: here's a person who believes that if they die doing

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Speaker 1: this act, then they'll be rewarded in the afterlife. But

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Speaker 1: then behind that there's a whole social scenario as well

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Speaker 1: of other humans, you know, telling them that this is

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Speaker 1: the thing to do, et cetera. Yeah, motivations are are

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Speaker 1: a rich stew of many different influences. I mean, it's

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Speaker 1: usually hard to nail down a single inciting incident or

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Speaker 1: cause that lead people down a path in life. And

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Speaker 1: in fact, I think a lot of times even when

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Speaker 1: people do that with themselves and say this was the

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Speaker 1: reason I became or whatever I did, whatever, I think

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Speaker 1: a lot of times they're over some they're they're wrong

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Speaker 1: about themselves. Yeah, so basically self delusion, we're all just

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Speaker 1: houses of cards, just ready to be knocked down at

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Speaker 1: any point. Well, but there's another way of putting it. Now.

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Speaker 1: One thing you and I could be getting wrong here

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Speaker 1: is if we're talking properly about self delusion or some

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Speaker 1: other type of of bias or like misperception in the brain.

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Speaker 1: Because the authors here they're saying, okay, self delusion specifically,

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Speaker 1: maybe self delusion implies that there's there's a sort of

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Speaker 1: transformation going on somewhere in the brain, Like the brain

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Speaker 1: gets accurate information about the world and then just somehow

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Speaker 1: presents it to the conscious mind in a skewed way.

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Speaker 1: The authors share think that, especially if you're talking about

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Speaker 1: wishful thinking, is the brand of self delusion, uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: getting false perceptions about the world in order to feel better.

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Speaker 1: They think that doesn't really work from a like unconscious

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Speaker 1: mind to conscious mind model, because emotions and moods also

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Speaker 1: seem to emerge from the unconscious mind, not from the

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Speaker 1: conscious mind. But then there's another thing they go to,

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Speaker 1: which is that they argue the empirical evidence for true

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Speaker 1: self deception in overestimation it's actually kind of weak and

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Speaker 1: kind of mixed. Why would this be Well, first of all,

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Speaker 1: they say, it's hard to separate true self deception from

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Speaker 1: attempts to deceive others, including the researchers. So how can

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Speaker 1: you tell when somebody truly overestimates their own traits or

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Speaker 1: abilities versus they just tell you that they think their

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Speaker 1: traits or abilities are better than they are. In a

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Speaker 1: lot of cases, both would manifest equally as outward over confidence. Now,

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Speaker 1: you can come up with some methodologies and some tests

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Speaker 1: to try to get around this, Like you can make

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Speaker 1: people bet sums of money that would where the outcome

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Speaker 1: of the bet would be dependent on how good they

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Speaker 1: actually are at a task or something. But in a

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Speaker 1: lot of cases, they say, it's hard to tell the

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Speaker 1: difference between true self deception and just attempts to deceive

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Speaker 1: other people. Another thing they point out is that you

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Speaker 1: don't actually have to be deceiving yourself to overestimate your abilities.

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Speaker 1: You could be genuinely completely ignorant of the fact that

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Speaker 1: you're not as good as you think you are. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And here's in place that the famous Dunning Krueger effect

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Speaker 1: comes in. Now, you may have heard about the Dunning

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Speaker 1: Krueger effect, but very short sketch on it. Of course,

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Speaker 1: overlaps with a lot of what we're talking about today.

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Speaker 1: Participants less skilled in a task or subject area can

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Speaker 1: be prone to show even greater overestimation of their abilities

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Speaker 1: in that skill or subject area. So with some skills,

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Speaker 1: the worst you are, the more you overestimate your awesomeness. Now,

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Speaker 1: why why on earth would this be? Well, the authors

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Speaker 1: here mentioned this could just simply come from your low

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Speaker 1: skills providing you with a poor frame of reference. You

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Speaker 1: don't know enough about this task or skill or subject

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Speaker 1: area to even understand how much you don't know, so

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Speaker 1: like the Dunning Krueger effect would show not self deception

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Speaker 1: but genuine ignorance. You lack enough information to understand how

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Speaker 1: bad you're failing. Like I think a good example of

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Speaker 1: this is you know, you read you you read one

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Speaker 1: theory about some phenomena and uh, and it can be

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Speaker 1: rather convincing. It can be so convincing that you think, well,

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Speaker 1: this is it. They made a great case. But if

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Speaker 1: you don't, if if you don't actually look at some

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Speaker 1: of the other theories out there or look at uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, some sort of if you look at writings

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Speaker 1: or or or pieces that actually compare them, or do

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Speaker 1: some sort of meta analysis, then you don't really have

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Speaker 1: a proper frame of reference or even like sort of

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't even say like nothing like a perfect frame

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Speaker 1: of reference, but even say like a healthy frame of reference. Yes,

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Speaker 1: you can go so like you read one article about

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Speaker 1: a subject and then you're an expert, and then you

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Speaker 1: start reading more and you realize like, oh wait a minute,

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Speaker 1: you know there's so much I don't understand that your

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Speaker 1: estimation of your own expertise drops sharply after Yeah, you

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Speaker 1: like you might realize, oh, well, there are other theories,

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Speaker 1: or you might realize, oh, well, this was just one

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Speaker 1: person's summary of this particular theory, and oh and then

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Speaker 1: on top of that, perhaps they had a particular acts

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Speaker 1: to grind in writing it, etcetera. Yeah, that's a great example.

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Speaker 1: I mean not to say that you should doubt every

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Speaker 1: you read, but I mean, yeah, you should have. You

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Speaker 1: should you should have healthy doubt, not you know, not

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Speaker 1: denial ism, but but you know, just be aware that

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Speaker 1: you don't know everything, and you should be especially suspicious

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Speaker 1: when you have dipped your toes into a subject and

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Speaker 1: now feel that you fully understand it. And we say

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Speaker 1: that as a professional toe dippers. Uh. Now, finally, they

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Speaker 1: point out that the empirical evidence for wishful thinking itself

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Speaker 1: in general as a psychological phenomenon. They say, this is

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Speaker 1: not actually strong. Uh. If if there were strong evidence

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Speaker 1: for wishful thinking, wouldn't it be the case that more

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Speaker 1: desirable outcomes would be more strongly believed? And they say, no,

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Speaker 1: studies that try to test this out do not find

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Speaker 1: this to be the case. It's not the case that

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Speaker 1: the more you want something, the more you believe it

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Speaker 1: to be true. And there are only a few types

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Speaker 1: of scenarios where there's any evidence of this at all,

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Speaker 1: such as scenarios where all outcomes are equally likely, like

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Speaker 1: a dice roll or something. Now that is interesting to

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Speaker 1: think of in terms of dungeons and dragons, were frequently

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Speaker 1: one is either making an attack or doing some sort

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Speaker 1: of attempting, some sort of act that requires a skill check.

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Speaker 1: And I find myself doing this. You'll you go up

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Speaker 1: there and you begin to explain what your character is

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Speaker 1: going to do, as if you hit that natural twenty

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Speaker 1: that's kind of the Yeah, So I find myself engaging

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Speaker 1: in a lot of that level of overconfidence with my

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Speaker 1: character because ultimately it all comes down to the roll

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Speaker 1: of the dice. You know, unless I'm trying to you know,

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Speaker 1: leap off of the democ organ's head or something, that

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Speaker 1: is going to be extremely difficult because they're going to

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Speaker 1: be additional numerical you know values, uh, you know, addages

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Speaker 1: attracted from the attempt. You know, ultimately it's still gonna

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Speaker 1: be one to twenty one being uh, you know, a

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Speaker 1: pretty much complete fail. Uh. You know that's gonna be

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Speaker 1: the one where you slip and stab yourself with your

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Speaker 1: own sword, or it's gonna be that natural twenty, which

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Speaker 1: is going to be you know, the wonder hit where

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Speaker 1: you do extra damage. That is fantastic example. I I

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Speaker 1: was trying to think of cases where I thought I

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Speaker 1: really did engage in wishful thinking, and I couldn't think.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure I do sometimes. But yeah, they say it's

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Speaker 1: not actually as common as people think it is. And

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Speaker 1: here's maybe one case. Yeah, I think in Dungeons and Dragons,

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Speaker 1: I have yet to meet a player or be a

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Speaker 1: player that does not engage in will wishfull thinking. Every

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Speaker 1: time you roll the dice, like nobody nobody rolls that

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Speaker 1: dice and it says, all right, this is how I'm

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Speaker 1: going to fall off this table or this is how

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Speaker 1: I'm going to fall into the next trap, and uh,

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Speaker 1: and you know, and skewer myself on a stake. No,

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Speaker 1: we want the best outcome and we we have it

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Speaker 1: in our mind before the dice puts us in our place. Now,

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Speaker 1: another thing that the authors here bring up is that

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Speaker 1: overestimation itself. Remember again, that's just thinking that you are

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Speaker 1: better than you are in some way in terms of

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Speaker 1: abilities or traits or something. Um that this actually has

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Speaker 1: a mixed evidential record. It's not always the case that

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Speaker 1: we overestimate ourselves on all quality, easier tasks. It's more

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Speaker 1: the case for some things in particular, And they give

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Speaker 1: a couple of examples of things where there really is

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Speaker 1: a ton of evidence for consistent overestimation. One is something

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Speaker 1: you brought up in the last episode, Robert, the planning fallacy.

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Speaker 1: There is really good evidence that people consistently overestimate how

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Speaker 1: fast they'll be able to get things done or complete

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Speaker 1: a project of some kind. And this is especially true

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Speaker 1: if the project is difficult and novel. So like, if

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Speaker 1: I try to, you know, I put together some complex

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Speaker 1: thing for you to do that's hard and you've never

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Speaker 1: done it before, you are really likely to massively underestimate

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Speaker 1: how much time it's going to take you. Right if

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Speaker 1: you're like, well, you know, I'm not a handyman, but

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Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna install this sink myself, and then

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Speaker 1: you watch a weekend just vanish. Yeah, I know that feeling.

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Speaker 1: Another one that they cite is the illusion of control.

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Speaker 1: People pretty consistently overestimate how much control they were they

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Speaker 1: will have over future. It comes even things that that

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Speaker 1: they should understand are basically random. Right, you see this

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Speaker 1: financially in business wise. A lot of times where someone

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Speaker 1: will have they think they have a clear idea of

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Speaker 1: like how things are going to flow, but they're they're

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Speaker 1: just not taking into account all the factors they cannot control,

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Speaker 1: and say the economy or you know, or or or

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Speaker 1: just the industry that they're a part of. But they're

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Speaker 1: kind of they're acting, they're making choices based on sort

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Speaker 1: of like a not even a best case scenario, but

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Speaker 1: sort of like a standard scenario. You know, Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: think I know what you mean. Like they're they're not

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Speaker 1: counting on the storm, and they're also not counting on

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Speaker 1: the wind to completely die away, and that's how they're basing,

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Speaker 1: you know, their their estimate of how long it's going

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Speaker 1: to take to sail across the sea. Oh yeah, I

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Speaker 1: mean that that's another thing, like we there's actually a

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Speaker 1: name for this. I've forgotten it at the moment. Maybe

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Speaker 1: I'll call it to mind in a second. But it's

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Speaker 1: the the assumption that the future will be like the present. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: maybe it's called the continuation fallaci ores thing um. But

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Speaker 1: now there's one more thing that they bring up with

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Speaker 1: respect to overestimation, specifically, uh and This is a standard

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Speaker 1: finding that applies to a lot of the research on overestimation.

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Speaker 1: It's called the hard easy distinction or the hard easy effect.

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Speaker 1: And uh that this one is interesting because we'll see

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Speaker 1: some variations with it in other types of overconfidence. But

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Speaker 1: it goes like this, we are more likely to overestimate

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Speaker 1: our abilities on hard tasks and underestimate our abilities on

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Speaker 1: easy ones. So again, like the hard project comes up

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Speaker 1: with the planning fallacy, you massively underestimate how much time

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Speaker 1: it's going to take you to do that hard, complex,

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Speaker 1: novel thing, but then you might overestimate how much time

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Speaker 1: it's going to take you to do something that's a

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Speaker 1: common easy task. I guess that the main example that's

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Speaker 1: coming to mind on this one would be the scenario

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Speaker 1: where driving across town, are going to a particular destination

428
00:22:57,560 --> 00:22:59,480
Speaker 1: takes less time than you think it will, and then

429
00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:03,080
Speaker 1: you show up like fifteen minutes early or were worse. Yeah,

430
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:06,400
Speaker 1: and the authors here have some explanations for how exactly

431
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:07,679
Speaker 1: this is working that we'll get to in a bit.

432
00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:09,720
Speaker 1: Should we take a break, Yes, we should, and when

433
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:12,320
Speaker 1: we come back we will continue our journey through over confidence.

434
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:18,080
Speaker 1: Thank alright, we're back all right, So we've been talking

435
00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:21,200
Speaker 1: about this paper about over confidence, about the three types

436
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:24,320
Speaker 1: of overconfidence by shots and more. We were just talking

437
00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:27,040
Speaker 1: about overestimation, the belief that you're better than you are,

438
00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:30,399
Speaker 1: especially with respect to some kind of objective measure or

439
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:33,199
Speaker 1: independent measure. And so we want to move on to

440
00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:36,919
Speaker 1: the next type of overconfidence they talk about, which is overplacement.

441
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:39,879
Speaker 1: And again this is different from overestimation because this is

442
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:43,600
Speaker 1: thinking that you're better than you are with respect to

443
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:47,439
Speaker 1: other people and judging yourself compared to others. Now, the

444
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:51,080
Speaker 1: authors have some methodological critiques of some of the literature here,

445
00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:53,879
Speaker 1: but they acknowledge there's a lot of evidence for overplacement,

446
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:57,400
Speaker 1: citing the better than average effect in all its beastly forms,

447
00:23:57,440 --> 00:23:59,879
Speaker 1: like in the other paper that we talked about that was,

448
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:03,840
Speaker 1: you know, recently found to be extremely robust. Uh. They've

449
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:06,800
Speaker 1: got some quibbles about methodology and some of these studies,

450
00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:10,240
Speaker 1: like using ambiguous scales or measures. Robert, you were talking

451
00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 1: I think in the last episode about you know how

452
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 1: some of these types of things like uh, you know,

453
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:19,640
Speaker 1: how people rate themselves in terms of attractiveness or intelligence

454
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:23,119
Speaker 1: or something. These can of course suffer from ambiguous criteria,

455
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:27,640
Speaker 1: right yeah, or sometimes just straight up unfair criteria, racist criteria, UM,

456
00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:32,320
Speaker 1: misogynistic criteria, etcetera. Well, yeah, it absolutely has all those

457
00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:35,560
Speaker 1: negative effects. I mean, I think overplacement is like it's

458
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:37,560
Speaker 1: behind a lot of the worst types of prejudices that

459
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:40,960
Speaker 1: make themselves known. But even if you're just like looking

460
00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:44,040
Speaker 1: at what is the quality you're trying to measure, you know,

461
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:47,879
Speaker 1: attractiveness or something like that, that there's usually not like

462
00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:50,480
Speaker 1: a way of rating that is, it's all based on

463
00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:54,359
Speaker 1: these kind of ambiguous subjective judgments. One great example of

464
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:57,040
Speaker 1: this is something that we've brought up several times already,

465
00:24:57,119 --> 00:25:02,159
Speaker 1: like the driving example. So Svinson in one did a

466
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:06,880
Speaker 1: study where he discovered that nine percent of American drivers

467
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:11,920
Speaker 1: rated themselves above the median and driving ability. Obviously, whatever

468
00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:16,439
Speaker 1: criterion you use, it's impossible for to be above the media,

469
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:19,560
Speaker 1: and it would have to be you know, like, um,

470
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:22,520
Speaker 1: the majority can be above average, but the majority cannot

471
00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:25,119
Speaker 1: be above the median. And the authors point out this

472
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:27,919
Speaker 1: would be more impressive if it were more specific, because

473
00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:31,240
Speaker 1: due to this problem with like ambiguous scales or measures,

474
00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:35,600
Speaker 1: anybody could technically have their own definition of what makes

475
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:39,040
Speaker 1: a good driver, So you could be answering that, thinking like, well,

476
00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:41,760
Speaker 1: there are things that I do well when I drive,

477
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 1: and maybe they're different from what somebody else thinks that

478
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 1: they do well when they drive, and that's their criterion, right,

479
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:50,480
Speaker 1: I mean, your your definition of being a good driver

480
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:52,800
Speaker 1: could just be I did not you know, I wasn't

481
00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:54,480
Speaker 1: in a wreck on the way to work this morning,

482
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:56,639
Speaker 1: you know, Or or it could be I get the

483
00:25:56,680 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 1: places I need to go fast like in those those

484
00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:03,919
Speaker 1: are definitely, you know, not necessarily the same vision of

485
00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 1: good driving. Or I look really cool when I do it,

486
00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:10,120
Speaker 1: you know. Uh. There's another thing they bring up which

487
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:14,240
Speaker 1: is interesting, which is the role of self selection in

488
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 1: increasing the apparent prevalence of over confidence in the real world.

489
00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 1: So an example would be like this, On average, more

490
00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 1: overconfident people are likely to apply for jobs just sort

491
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:29,520
Speaker 1: of by definition, right, more overconfident people are likely to

492
00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:34,240
Speaker 1: start businesses, to run for office, So we're we're exposed

493
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:37,760
Speaker 1: to more of these people, and this could lead to

494
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:41,480
Speaker 1: us thinking that their confidence level is more represented in

495
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:44,399
Speaker 1: the general population than it actually is. Oh yeah, you

496
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:47,719
Speaker 1: turn on the television. It's what it's almost exclusively overly

497
00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:50,280
Speaker 1: confident people, that's true. Yeah, So if you just look

498
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:56,120
Speaker 1: at like business leadership, politics, celebrities, all this, you're gonna see.

499
00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:59,000
Speaker 1: I think you will see in general way more over

500
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 1: confidence than just will talking to your friends and relatives

501
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:05,639
Speaker 1: and co workers. Now here's a really interesting thing. Remember

502
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:08,200
Speaker 1: we talked about the hard easy effect or the easy

503
00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:13,440
Speaker 1: heart effect with overestimation, where people tend to overestimate their

504
00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:19,359
Speaker 1: abilities on hard jobs and underestimate their abilities on easy jobs. Apparently,

505
00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 1: for overplacement, it's there's also an easy heart effect, but

506
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:29,360
Speaker 1: it's in the exact opposite direction. With overplacement, you overplace

507
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:33,600
Speaker 1: yourselves relative. We overplace ourselves relative to others on easy,

508
00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:39,160
Speaker 1: common tasks and underplace ourselves relative to others on difficult, unusual,

509
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:42,440
Speaker 1: or rare ones. So again, what would be some examples

510
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 1: of this? Uh, you think you're in the ninety percentile

511
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 1: of drivers, but really you're in the forty. This is

512
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:52,200
Speaker 1: an easy common task. On the other hand, people think

513
00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:56,880
Speaker 1: that they are less likely than others to win difficult competitions. Uh.

514
00:27:56,920 --> 00:28:00,200
Speaker 1: Studies show that when there's a teacher that decides to

515
00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:03,760
Speaker 1: make an exam harder and graded on a curve, students

516
00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:07,080
Speaker 1: expect their grades to be worse than others, even when

517
00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:09,240
Speaker 1: there's common knowledge that there will be a curve. So

518
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:12,400
Speaker 1: as the test gets harder, students perceived that they will

519
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:17,120
Speaker 1: do worse relative to other classmates. That's kind of interesting. Uh.

520
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:20,080
Speaker 1: They point out that people believe they are worse jugglers

521
00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:23,399
Speaker 1: than other people. They believe that they are less likely

522
00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:26,160
Speaker 1: to win the lottery than other people. Again a difficult,

523
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:30,400
Speaker 1: rare thing, uh, And that they here's here's a very

524
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:33,800
Speaker 1: interesting version. Just in terms of ages. People believe they

525
00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 1: are less likely than other people to live past one hundred,

526
00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:40,760
Speaker 1: but they also think they're more likely than other people

527
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 1: to live past seventy. Interesting. Well, of course, both of

528
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:46,640
Speaker 1: those kind of depends on where you are in the

529
00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 1: age spectrum when you're making that estimation, you know, because

530
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:52,360
Speaker 1: you could be I mean, I mean, but apparently it's

531
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:55,600
Speaker 1: true of all age, but also your quality of life, right,

532
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 1: I mean, for some people that prospect of living two hundred,

533
00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 1: Depending on where you are health wise, that might be terrifying.

534
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:05,280
Speaker 1: That might be it might be wishful thinking that you'll

535
00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:08,080
Speaker 1: expire sooner than that, uh, or it could be the

536
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:11,360
Speaker 1: other way around, you know. Um, what kind of explanations

537
00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 1: are they They throwing out, Yeah, this was interesting, So yeah,

538
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 1: why do we fail in opposite directions here? Depending on

539
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:20,680
Speaker 1: whether we're imagining our performance against objective measures versus relative

540
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:23,760
Speaker 1: to others, and the author's site solutions from some of

541
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:28,479
Speaker 1: Moore's previously previous work with other authors, they write this quote.

542
00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 1: If people make any errors estimating how well they've done

543
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:35,040
Speaker 1: or will do, then it stands to reason they're more

544
00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 1: likely to overestimate a low score and the more likely

545
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:42,400
Speaker 1: to underestimate a high score. That's the herd easy effect.

546
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:46,240
Speaker 1: As long as people have more uncertainty about others scores,

547
00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 1: they'll tend to make even more regressive estimates of others

548
00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:53,600
Speaker 1: than of self. The consequence would be that they overestimate

549
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 1: others even more than themselves on difficult tasks and come

550
00:29:57,480 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 1: to believe that they are worse than others. The oppos

551
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:03,200
Speaker 1: that would hold true for easy tasks. People would underestimate

552
00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:06,360
Speaker 1: others more than themselves and wind up believing that they

553
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:09,480
Speaker 1: are better than others. So that took me a minute

554
00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:11,240
Speaker 1: to get my head around, but then I finally made

555
00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:13,800
Speaker 1: sense of it. So when you're not sure how you

556
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:16,120
Speaker 1: will do it, something, as we're always you know, not

557
00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:19,320
Speaker 1: sure there's a ton of uncertainty in life, or you're

558
00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:22,520
Speaker 1: not sure how others will do. They're simply more room

559
00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:26,480
Speaker 1: for possibility to guess high if your performance is likely

560
00:30:26,520 --> 00:30:29,440
Speaker 1: to be low, and more room to guess low if

561
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:32,640
Speaker 1: your performance is likely to be high. And this applies

562
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 1: to both the self and other people. Since we know

563
00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:39,160
Speaker 1: even less about other people than we do about ourselves,

564
00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 1: we're going to spend more time guessing wrong in these

565
00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:45,680
Speaker 1: vast over and under zones for other people, depending on

566
00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:48,160
Speaker 1: what type of task it is. Now we're going to

567
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:52,080
Speaker 1: talk about over precision from this two thousand seventeen study. Now,

568
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:54,880
Speaker 1: over precision again is that that's like having way more

569
00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:58,640
Speaker 1: confidence than you should about what you believe to be true.

570
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:00,640
Speaker 1: So I could ask you, you know, I could ask

571
00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:02,520
Speaker 1: you to answer a question, Then I could ask you

572
00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 1: how confident you are that your answer is correct? Uh.

573
00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:10,080
Speaker 1: And the authors here right quote results routinely find that

574
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:15,720
Speaker 1: hit rates inside confidence intervals are below fifty percent, implying

575
00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 1: that people set their ranges too precisely, acting as if

576
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 1: they're inappropriately confident that their beliefs are accurate. So, if

577
00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:26,120
Speaker 1: you take a quiz, you say you're more than confident

578
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 1: on average about your answers, and you're actually more like

579
00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:32,239
Speaker 1: fifty percent correct on average. This is something that's been

580
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:35,480
Speaker 1: found a bunch of times. It's quite clear that there's

581
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:39,520
Speaker 1: tons of over precision in human behavior. The authors have

582
00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:42,720
Speaker 1: a few critiques about like common research paradigms that that

583
00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:45,240
Speaker 1: are used to study this. One example is they say,

584
00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:47,640
Speaker 1: you know it. It may be that normal people don't

585
00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 1: have a very solid understanding of how to use confidence intervals,

586
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:53,080
Speaker 1: so there have been other ways of trying to measure it.

587
00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:57,040
Speaker 1: But however, the authors here believe that over precision is

588
00:31:57,120 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 1: the most pervasive form of over confidence. You find it

589
00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:04,640
Speaker 1: absolutely every everywhere, even in experts talking about their own

590
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:06,760
Speaker 1: subject matter. I think that's come up on the show

591
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:09,600
Speaker 1: before that, I don't remember when. After this, the authors

592
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:12,120
Speaker 1: here turned to the question UH, a question we talked

593
00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:16,000
Speaker 1: about a little before. Could over confidence actually be useful? Like?

594
00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:18,440
Speaker 1: How do why does it make sense for a brain

595
00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:21,960
Speaker 1: to be overconfident? Uh? And they talk about explanations in

596
00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 1: two main categories, intra personal and interpersonal UH. The authors

597
00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:31,320
Speaker 1: generally think the evidence for the interpersonal explanations the the

598
00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 1: explanations and how it works on other people are stronger

599
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:37,840
Speaker 1: than the intra personal ones, though there kid could be

600
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:41,000
Speaker 1: some good intra personal ones. For example, you know, maybe

601
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:43,920
Speaker 1: over confidence doesn't just make you feel good, it, as

602
00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 1: we hypothesized earlier, makes you more likely to take risks

603
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:50,840
Speaker 1: that can pay off big. Yeah. Well, I mean, for instance,

604
00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:53,360
Speaker 1: to come to to go to like a predator prey

605
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:58,520
Speaker 1: scenario like one is reminded of the you know, how

606
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:02,280
Speaker 1: effective your average editor is. You know they're going to

607
00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:06,200
Speaker 1: fail a lot. And granted, a leopard is not really

608
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:11,200
Speaker 1: subject to human uh, you know, over confidence or under confidence,

609
00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:13,840
Speaker 1: but certainly if you if you if you look at

610
00:33:13,840 --> 00:33:16,600
Speaker 1: a human scenario, if you look at human hunters, uh,

611
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 1: you know it, it's certainly a situation where it would

612
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:22,960
Speaker 1: pay to be overconfident, uh, to a certain degree. Yeah,

613
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:25,520
Speaker 1: I think you can find some analogies of confidence and

614
00:33:25,560 --> 00:33:28,320
Speaker 1: over confidence and animals like you know, how likely are

615
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:31,600
Speaker 1: you to try to take down prey animal that you're

616
00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:34,480
Speaker 1: very unlikely to succeed against, but you know, would provide

617
00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:36,240
Speaker 1: you with a lot of meat and energy if you

618
00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:38,640
Speaker 1: do right. Though, of course, the reverse of the other

619
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:40,400
Speaker 1: side of that is that you would not need want

620
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:42,840
Speaker 1: to be so overconfident that you were going after prey

621
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:45,240
Speaker 1: that was extremely likely to kill you if you try

622
00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:48,680
Speaker 1: to bring it down right. But the authors here they

623
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:52,280
Speaker 1: do think that there's really good evidence for interpersonal benefits

624
00:33:52,280 --> 00:33:55,560
Speaker 1: for over confidence. One example would be all the empirical

625
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:59,160
Speaker 1: evidence that already exists that just outwardly projecting confidence has

626
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:01,920
Speaker 1: all these benefit fits affecting how other people see us.

627
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 1: There are studies that show that highly confident people are

628
00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:09,880
Speaker 1: more persuasive, they're more influential, they're perceived as more sexually attractive,

629
00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:14,240
Speaker 1: they tend to get promoted to positions of authority in groups. Um,

630
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:17,640
Speaker 1: And it's possible that confidence is actually more important than

631
00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:21,680
Speaker 1: competence in determining who gets promoted to high status positions

632
00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:25,360
Speaker 1: the author's right quote. While a preference for confident leaders

633
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:28,920
Speaker 1: may make sense if there's a correlation, however, weak, between

634
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:32,359
Speaker 1: confidence and competence, there is real risk in selecting over

635
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:35,959
Speaker 1: confident leaders. Well, I mean, because on one hand, you

636
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:38,239
Speaker 1: you want a boss that can say, you know, do

637
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:41,280
Speaker 1: their job and and keep the company afloat and actually

638
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:45,000
Speaker 1: grow the business, etcetera, all the various catchphrases. But you

639
00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:46,839
Speaker 1: also want a boss that you can kind of like

640
00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:49,040
Speaker 1: you can. You can you can trust that they're doing

641
00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:53,080
Speaker 1: their thing like they seem confident. I guess they have

642
00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:54,960
Speaker 1: their whole end of it figured out, and maybe I

643
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 1: can focus on my own thing and not my own

644
00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:00,279
Speaker 1: role in the company without you freaking out a what's

645
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:03,520
Speaker 1: going to happen tomorrow? Well, maybe in the business scenario

646
00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:07,319
Speaker 1: we should pivot to talking about the Icarus paradox. Oh,

647
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:08,960
Speaker 1: all right, we're gonna take a quick break, but we'll

648
00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 1: be right back with more than thank and we're back. So, Robert,

649
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:17,240
Speaker 1: you wanted to bring in a concept from the business

650
00:35:17,239 --> 00:35:21,239
Speaker 1: world about overconfidence, the Icarus paradox. Yeah, And I'm as

651
00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:23,280
Speaker 1: surprised as maybe some of you are that I'm bringing

652
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:26,280
Speaker 1: in a something business wise, but it caught my attention

653
00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:29,040
Speaker 1: when I was looking for things on for papers and

654
00:35:29,040 --> 00:35:32,319
Speaker 1: so forth, on over confidence, and also looking at Greek

655
00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:35,920
Speaker 1: mythology and so forth, because yeah, the Acarus paradox invokes

656
00:35:36,080 --> 00:35:38,920
Speaker 1: the story of Charask rather directly. And I think it

657
00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:40,800
Speaker 1: also makes sense at another level, because you know, we

658
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:43,839
Speaker 1: don't have gods so much anymore, Like these are not

659
00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:48,799
Speaker 1: the driving commanding forces in our world, but we do

660
00:35:48,840 --> 00:35:53,120
Speaker 1: have institutions, industries, global economies. And these are not unlike

661
00:35:53,120 --> 00:35:56,240
Speaker 1: the concepts of the gods, right. You know, they're sometimes lawful,

662
00:35:56,320 --> 00:35:59,640
Speaker 1: sometimes chaotic entities that are likely to destroy you if

663
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:02,759
Speaker 1: you question their authority, or if you you you turn

664
00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:06,480
Speaker 1: against them. But anyway, I ran across this interesting concept

665
00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:10,240
Speaker 1: of the acress paradox um. It was devised by Canadian

666
00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:14,120
Speaker 1: economist Danny Miller, and he points out that businesses are

667
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:18,080
Speaker 1: often like Icarus in the myth. They start out confident

668
00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:22,680
Speaker 1: and competent, they rise, but then they perish. Uh. The

669
00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:24,839
Speaker 1: The irony, he writes, is that many of the most

670
00:36:24,920 --> 00:36:30,480
Speaker 1: dramatically successful companies are prone to this exact sort of failure. Uh.

671
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:33,000
Speaker 1: And and it doesn't necessary in the business sense, since

672
00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:36,719
Speaker 1: businesses are sometimes less likely to die. They're more like

673
00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:39,279
Speaker 1: the gods. You know, they're they have downfalls, but there

674
00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:43,319
Speaker 1: may be they may very well be immortal in some cases. Right,

675
00:36:43,360 --> 00:36:45,399
Speaker 1: they're still alive. They're just chained to a rock getting

676
00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:48,680
Speaker 1: their liver pecked out by an eagle, right for eternity.

677
00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:52,680
Speaker 1: You know, maybe they just declare multiple bankruptcies. Immortal declares bankruptcy.

678
00:36:52,680 --> 00:36:56,080
Speaker 1: It's a different thing than than a corporation doing it. Um. Wait,

679
00:36:56,120 --> 00:36:59,239
Speaker 1: what is that eagle? It's like a private equity eagle. Yeah,

680
00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:02,799
Speaker 1: the private ECU eagle. Um. And yeah, he mentioned several

681
00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:04,920
Speaker 1: companies and discussing this, and and most of them I

682
00:37:04,920 --> 00:37:06,839
Speaker 1: think that he was discussing are still around like they

683
00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:10,799
Speaker 1: have survived their downfalls. Uh. But yeah, yeah. He writes

684
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:13,520
Speaker 1: that the irony is that that many of these dramatically

685
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:15,839
Speaker 1: successful companies are prone to these sort of failures. And

686
00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:19,240
Speaker 1: what's more, the very factors that drive success, when taken

687
00:37:19,280 --> 00:37:23,600
Speaker 1: to excess, are the factors that bring about decline. So

688
00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:25,640
Speaker 1: I think this is an interesting model to look at,

689
00:37:25,680 --> 00:37:27,840
Speaker 1: not only for the you know, because it's a just

690
00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:29,480
Speaker 1: to take on it from the business world, but I

691
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:31,520
Speaker 1: think he can also serve as sort of a reflecting

692
00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:34,800
Speaker 1: pool for some of the individual concepts that we've discussed

693
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:37,880
Speaker 1: already by placing them out outside of the human psyche

694
00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:40,319
Speaker 1: and looking at them in the context of an organization

695
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:44,920
Speaker 1: or a culture. So Miller wrote a book about this,

696
00:37:45,200 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 1: The Icarous Paradox, How Exceptional Companies bring about their own downfall.

697
00:37:49,440 --> 00:37:53,280
Speaker 1: New Lessons in the Dynamics of Corporate success, Decline, and Renewal.

698
00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:56,240
Speaker 1: I know you love a long title like that. Um.

699
00:37:56,280 --> 00:38:00,440
Speaker 1: But I also I was mainly looking at his Business

700
00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 1: Horizons article that he wrote on the subject, and he

701
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:07,560
Speaker 1: summarizes a lot of the key points. So Miller identified

702
00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:13,920
Speaker 1: four key to trajectories in the riches to rags business scenario.

703
00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:17,960
Speaker 1: So the first one that he mentions is the focusing trajectory.

704
00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:23,040
Speaker 1: In this trajectory, the craftsman becomes the tinker quote firms

705
00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:30,279
Speaker 1: whose insular, technocratic monocultures alienate customers with perfect but irrelevant offerings.

706
00:38:30,320 --> 00:38:32,480
Speaker 1: So I guess in a scenario would be, you know,

707
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:36,560
Speaker 1: the company that creates a really groundbreaking product, and then

708
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:40,319
Speaker 1: all they do is tinker with that concept. All they

709
00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:44,160
Speaker 1: do is make adjustment to that concept, and eventually, like

710
00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:46,719
Speaker 1: somebody else is going to create a better widget or

711
00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:50,279
Speaker 1: a better you know, smartphone, or whatever the situation may be,

712
00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:52,839
Speaker 1: somebody else is going to take some some you know,

713
00:38:52,880 --> 00:38:57,600
Speaker 1: some wider swings. Next comes the venturing trajectory, and this

714
00:38:57,680 --> 00:39:01,200
Speaker 1: is by which builders become imperial list And this one,

715
00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:03,160
Speaker 1: I think is the one that really has the smack

716
00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 1: of overconfidence to it. In this trajectory, the strategy of

717
00:39:07,600 --> 00:39:12,040
Speaker 1: building feeds into over expansion. The goal of growth becomes

718
00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:16,719
Speaker 1: grandeur and an entrepreneurial culture becomes one of the gamesman,

719
00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:22,080
Speaker 1: A divisionalized structure becomes fractured. And then on top of

720
00:39:22,120 --> 00:39:25,400
Speaker 1: that there's the the inventing trajectory. This is where you

721
00:39:25,440 --> 00:39:29,040
Speaker 1: go from pioneering to escapist. In this trajectory, innovation feeds

722
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:34,799
Speaker 1: into high tech escapism. Science for society transforms into technological utopianism.

723
00:39:34,840 --> 00:39:37,520
Speaker 1: Research and development gives way to think tank culture, and

724
00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:41,600
Speaker 1: the overall culture goes from organic to chaotic. And then

725
00:39:41,800 --> 00:39:45,400
Speaker 1: he rounds us out with the decoupling trajectory from salesman

726
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:51,480
Speaker 1: to drifter quote. Finally, the decoupling trajectory transforms salesman organizations

727
00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:55,680
Speaker 1: with unparalleled marketing skills, prominent brand names, and broad markets

728
00:39:56,000 --> 00:40:00,600
Speaker 1: into aimless, bureaucratic drifters whose sales fetish obscure is design

729
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:03,799
Speaker 1: issues and who produce a stale and disjointed line of

730
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:06,879
Speaker 1: me to offerings. Okay, so that's the company that's more

731
00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:10,480
Speaker 1: based around marketing culture than around having a good product, right.

732
00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 1: You know. Thinking about these trajectories kind of reminds me

733
00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:16,719
Speaker 1: of the peaking in high school stereotype. In life trajectories,

734
00:40:17,160 --> 00:40:19,239
Speaker 1: it's a stereotype, but there is some truth to it.

735
00:40:19,360 --> 00:40:22,040
Speaker 1: I think it's possible that too much success early on

736
00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:24,680
Speaker 1: in life can kind of corrupt a person and can

737
00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:27,200
Speaker 1: kind of corrupt your work ethic, your ability to learn

738
00:40:27,280 --> 00:40:30,759
Speaker 1: from mistakes and mature. It's important for people to experience

739
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:34,360
Speaker 1: both successes and failures early in life. Yeah, yeah, I

740
00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:36,560
Speaker 1: think so. It kind of comes back to what we

741
00:40:36,600 --> 00:40:41,360
Speaker 1: talked about looking at considering Aristotle's uh summary of hubrists

742
00:40:41,360 --> 00:40:43,560
Speaker 1: saying that the the young and the rich were the

743
00:40:43,600 --> 00:40:46,080
Speaker 1: most likely to engage in it, and the idea that

744
00:40:46,120 --> 00:40:49,400
Speaker 1: perhaps in some scenarios, certainly there there are plenty of

745
00:40:49,440 --> 00:40:53,080
Speaker 1: examples of very wealthy people who got there through defeat,

746
00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:56,040
Speaker 1: like through learning the lessons of defeat. There are also

747
00:40:56,080 --> 00:40:59,320
Speaker 1: examples of of people who have you know, arguably maybe

748
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:02,279
Speaker 1: you know, never suffered a true defeat like they have.

749
00:41:02,680 --> 00:41:05,680
Speaker 1: They have remains sort of man children, uh kind of

750
00:41:05,719 --> 00:41:08,600
Speaker 1: failed upward. Yeah, that sort of thing. Um. And again

751
00:41:08,600 --> 00:41:11,880
Speaker 1: we're dealing abroad tropes here. But you know, to some extent,

752
00:41:11,960 --> 00:41:16,280
Speaker 1: I think it's useful to consider, uh, to consider these um.

753
00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:18,480
Speaker 1: But but also I feel like it it does get

754
00:41:18,480 --> 00:41:22,319
Speaker 1: too into the idea that that when we're dealing with

755
00:41:22,400 --> 00:41:25,880
Speaker 1: the trajectory of of a human life, you know. Um.

756
00:41:27,080 --> 00:41:29,239
Speaker 1: Part of it is perhaps comes down to just our

757
00:41:29,280 --> 00:41:32,279
Speaker 1: ability to forecast the future, our ability to make long

758
00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:35,920
Speaker 1: to engage in long term planning. Like we're as humans

759
00:41:35,920 --> 00:41:38,000
Speaker 1: were generally not as good about that. We're certainly not

760
00:41:38,040 --> 00:41:40,960
Speaker 1: good about planning beyond uh, you know, the scope of

761
00:41:41,000 --> 00:41:44,000
Speaker 1: a human life. But but even like beyond the scope

762
00:41:44,040 --> 00:41:45,520
Speaker 1: of a of a few years, we're better at the

763
00:41:45,960 --> 00:41:49,600
Speaker 1: short term goals, and it's only with considerable effort that

764
00:41:49,680 --> 00:41:54,160
Speaker 1: we we get better at considering long term goals. Um.

765
00:41:54,200 --> 00:41:55,840
Speaker 1: So I think that's important to keep in mind. And

766
00:41:55,880 --> 00:41:58,239
Speaker 1: all of this now, one thing that I think is

767
00:41:58,239 --> 00:42:01,200
Speaker 1: also interesting in Miller's writings is that he talked he

768
00:42:01,440 --> 00:42:04,120
Speaker 1: he talks a bit about over confidence, you know, as

769
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:08,239
Speaker 1: a symptom of underlying issues, you know, as opposed to

770
00:42:08,280 --> 00:42:13,680
Speaker 1: being like an intrinsic quality. Uh. He writes, Unfortunately, configuration

771
00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:17,360
Speaker 1: and synergy are usually attained at the cost of myopia.

772
00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:21,960
Speaker 1: Stellar performers view the world through narrowing telescopes. One point

773
00:42:21,960 --> 00:42:25,759
Speaker 1: of view takes over, one set of assumptions comes to dominate.

774
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:30,319
Speaker 1: The result is complacency and over confidence. And I think

775
00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:32,560
Speaker 1: that plays into a lot of what what we've we

776
00:42:32,640 --> 00:42:35,040
Speaker 1: spoke about earlier. You know. Sorry, I'm trying to make

777
00:42:35,080 --> 00:42:37,440
Speaker 1: sense of it. Given the discuss the word synergy in it,

778
00:42:37,840 --> 00:42:40,280
Speaker 1: I shouldn't know what that means. By now I've purged

779
00:42:40,320 --> 00:42:42,719
Speaker 1: it from my brain. Oh okay, I see now, Yeah,

780
00:42:42,719 --> 00:42:45,080
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the quote. Okay, So no, this is

781
00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:47,799
Speaker 1: this is a very standard thing. Uh. You know, if

782
00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:52,480
Speaker 1: you have successfully hammered several nails in everything and you've

783
00:42:52,480 --> 00:42:55,040
Speaker 1: still got the hammer, everything really starts to look like

784
00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:59,120
Speaker 1: a nail, just because like, if you've had success with

785
00:42:59,160 --> 00:43:02,399
Speaker 1: the strategy and past, you don't switch. You just keep

786
00:43:02,480 --> 00:43:04,560
Speaker 1: doing what you've done before, even if it doesn't make

787
00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:07,080
Speaker 1: sense of that. Yeah, this is the this is what works,

788
00:43:07,080 --> 00:43:09,520
Speaker 1: this is what our product is, and this is what

789
00:43:09,560 --> 00:43:12,439
Speaker 1: we're going to stick to. Um and and then yeah,

790
00:43:12,440 --> 00:43:14,600
Speaker 1: he talks a good bit about to do about over

791
00:43:14,640 --> 00:43:18,200
Speaker 1: confidence as just a result of success, writing quote failure

792
00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:21,960
Speaker 1: teaches leaders valuable lessons, but good results only reinforce their

793
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:25,680
Speaker 1: preconceptions and tether them more firmly to their tried and

794
00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:30,160
Speaker 1: true recipes. Success also makes managers overconfident, more prone to

795
00:43:30,280 --> 00:43:33,400
Speaker 1: excess and neglect, and more given to shape strategies to

796
00:43:33,440 --> 00:43:36,600
Speaker 1: reflect their own preferences rather than those of the customers.

797
00:43:37,560 --> 00:43:40,680
Speaker 1: And uh, you know. He also points to one of

798
00:43:40,680 --> 00:43:44,280
Speaker 1: the key aspects of the icorous paradox being that overconfident,

799
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:48,719
Speaker 1: complacent executives extend the very factors that contributed to success

800
00:43:49,000 --> 00:43:52,239
Speaker 1: to the point where they cause decline. So the thing

801
00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:55,800
Speaker 1: that's working, you know, the button we're pushing that is

802
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:58,560
Speaker 1: leading to success, let's just really jam that sucker. You're

803
00:43:58,600 --> 00:44:01,120
Speaker 1: like the rat in the experien that keeps pushing the

804
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:04,959
Speaker 1: cocaine button. Yeah. So he summarizes that there are really

805
00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:08,000
Speaker 1: two aspects of the acreous paradox. One is the success

806
00:44:08,000 --> 00:44:10,719
Speaker 1: can lead to failure via the fostering of overconfidence and

807
00:44:10,760 --> 00:44:13,640
Speaker 1: other factors. And then to the aspects of a business

808
00:44:13,640 --> 00:44:16,840
Speaker 1: that brings success can also hasten failure or quote, the

809
00:44:17,000 --> 00:44:20,520
Speaker 1: very causes of success, when extended, may become the causes

810
00:44:20,560 --> 00:44:24,360
Speaker 1: of failure. And as far as you know, ways to

811
00:44:24,480 --> 00:44:27,200
Speaker 1: fight these transformations. Because that's when one question I had,

812
00:44:27,200 --> 00:44:29,640
Speaker 1: It's like, is this just the trajectory? This is what happens?

813
00:44:29,719 --> 00:44:33,360
Speaker 1: Like this is things can't just go up forever and

814
00:44:33,600 --> 00:44:38,480
Speaker 1: a business cannot just exist, you know, indefinitely, like things

815
00:44:38,520 --> 00:44:41,920
Speaker 1: have to die, right, I mean, these corporations are not

816
00:44:42,040 --> 00:44:45,919
Speaker 1: like you mortals, but they are given to life and death.

817
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:49,479
Speaker 1: They're not eternal. Uh and and he says, he argues

818
00:44:49,520 --> 00:44:52,719
Speaker 1: that there are ways to fight these transformations. He suggests

819
00:44:52,719 --> 00:44:56,799
Speaker 1: self reflection and intelligence gathering that guards against excess, over

820
00:44:56,880 --> 00:45:00,960
Speaker 1: confidence and irrelevance. And this, this I think matches up

821
00:45:00,960 --> 00:45:02,560
Speaker 1: with what we've been talking about so far in the

822
00:45:02,560 --> 00:45:05,839
Speaker 1: individual level, Like like, if you think you're you're gracious,

823
00:45:05,880 --> 00:45:08,919
Speaker 1: like take a step back and and and uh and

824
00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:11,360
Speaker 1: and think in the question whether you know you actually

825
00:45:11,400 --> 00:45:13,239
Speaker 1: are to what extent you are? What else you could

826
00:45:13,239 --> 00:45:15,440
Speaker 1: be doing to ensure that that that you were actually

827
00:45:15,480 --> 00:45:18,480
Speaker 1: living up to your overestimation of self. If you think

828
00:45:18,520 --> 00:45:21,160
Speaker 1: it's true about yourself, prove it, Prove it to you. Yeah,

829
00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:24,000
Speaker 1: I have to say Miller is a is a is

830
00:45:24,040 --> 00:45:25,879
Speaker 1: a really good writer about it this because normally I'm

831
00:45:25,920 --> 00:45:30,279
Speaker 1: not interested in business culture type stuff like this, but

832
00:45:30,280 --> 00:45:31,840
Speaker 1: but he does a great job of like tying it

833
00:45:31,880 --> 00:45:35,520
Speaker 1: back into just the basic human scenario as well, Like

834
00:45:35,520 --> 00:45:38,920
Speaker 1: like he points out that excellence in any human endeavor,

835
00:45:38,960 --> 00:45:41,319
Speaker 1: be at arts or sports or what have you, you know,

836
00:45:41,360 --> 00:45:43,760
Speaker 1: it tends to come at a price. We cannot excel

837
00:45:43,880 --> 00:45:46,960
Speaker 1: at everything. We have to make sacrifices and choose what's

838
00:45:46,960 --> 00:45:49,719
Speaker 1: important in the middle of the road, or a jack

839
00:45:49,760 --> 00:45:53,520
Speaker 1: of all trades approach is not going to lead to greatness,

840
00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:56,319
Speaker 1: you know, unless it's a story or some fable where

841
00:45:56,360 --> 00:46:02,239
Speaker 1: greatness is just thrust upon somebody. You know, Uh, there's

842
00:46:02,280 --> 00:46:05,360
Speaker 1: got to be some sort of trade off there. And

843
00:46:05,360 --> 00:46:07,080
Speaker 1: he says it goes for the individual, but it also

844
00:46:07,120 --> 00:46:10,120
Speaker 1: applies to companies as well. You can only sharpen your

845
00:46:10,120 --> 00:46:12,719
Speaker 1: blade if you first realize that it is dull and

846
00:46:12,800 --> 00:46:15,359
Speaker 1: must be sharpened. You know, like if if you if

847
00:46:15,400 --> 00:46:18,640
Speaker 1: you believe yourself eternally and infinitely sharp, you're not going

848
00:46:18,719 --> 00:46:21,040
Speaker 1: to do the sharpening right. And it's interesting to come

849
00:46:21,040 --> 00:46:23,120
Speaker 1: back and think about the individual level and think about

850
00:46:23,120 --> 00:46:26,520
Speaker 1: over confidence in this scenario, like one like basic trophy

851
00:46:26,560 --> 00:46:29,319
Speaker 1: mentions is the idea of say, you know, the artist

852
00:46:29,400 --> 00:46:32,520
Speaker 1: who neglects their family to focus on their art, or

853
00:46:32,520 --> 00:46:35,919
Speaker 1: a business person that does the same thing. In those scenarios,

854
00:46:36,040 --> 00:46:39,560
Speaker 1: might it be you know, I guess you know, maybe

855
00:46:39,560 --> 00:46:41,719
Speaker 1: in a warped sensor in a way that that that

856
00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:45,319
Speaker 1: caters to their their prime focus. Might it be beneficial

857
00:46:45,480 --> 00:46:47,360
Speaker 1: to just think, oh, I'm a good dad, I'm a

858
00:46:47,360 --> 00:46:50,799
Speaker 1: good husband, even when they're not. But it enables them

859
00:46:50,840 --> 00:46:53,400
Speaker 1: to then put all of their more of their resources

860
00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:56,640
Speaker 1: anyway into the pursuit of the thing that ultimately matters

861
00:46:56,680 --> 00:46:59,319
Speaker 1: to them, like you know, card, hard cold cash, or

862
00:46:59,480 --> 00:47:03,160
Speaker 1: the pursuit of art. Yeah. Well, so to be clear,

863
00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:06,520
Speaker 1: obviously this wouldn't mean that it's actually useful in being

864
00:47:06,560 --> 00:47:09,000
Speaker 1: a good person, have any good life, but it may

865
00:47:09,280 --> 00:47:13,080
Speaker 1: very well be useful in focusing on whatever it is

866
00:47:13,160 --> 00:47:16,319
Speaker 1: that really matters to you, to be overconfident about your

867
00:47:16,440 --> 00:47:20,080
Speaker 1: your crappy efforts in other areas of life. Yeah, I

868
00:47:20,360 --> 00:47:23,160
Speaker 1: think that's entirely true. So it's it's Yeah, it's interesting

869
00:47:23,200 --> 00:47:25,600
Speaker 1: to compare the two, the corporate version of this in

870
00:47:25,640 --> 00:47:27,879
Speaker 1: the individual version of this. And certainly if you want

871
00:47:27,880 --> 00:47:31,040
Speaker 1: to read more about this idea of the acreous paradox,

872
00:47:31,920 --> 00:47:34,759
Speaker 1: I certainly recommend checking out more of his writings. So

873
00:47:34,800 --> 00:47:37,520
Speaker 1: we have all these economic metaphors, like you know from

874
00:47:37,520 --> 00:47:40,360
Speaker 1: Adam Smith, the Invisible Hand and whatever, I feel like

875
00:47:40,400 --> 00:47:43,920
Speaker 1: we need an economic metaphor of the nemesis, Like the

876
00:47:43,960 --> 00:47:47,440
Speaker 1: Nemesis that is this force in the market that swoops

877
00:47:47,440 --> 00:47:51,880
Speaker 1: into punish hubrist and over confidence in business. Yeah, sometimes

878
00:47:51,880 --> 00:47:56,359
Speaker 1: it seems like Nemesis is a little a little uh

879
00:47:57,040 --> 00:47:59,120
Speaker 1: resistant to doing that. I don't know, I mean, part

880
00:47:59,120 --> 00:48:01,040
Speaker 1: of it comes down again to the fact that that

881
00:48:01,520 --> 00:48:06,279
Speaker 1: businesses and corporations are are are less mortal. Well, yeah,

882
00:48:06,280 --> 00:48:08,880
Speaker 1: I mean it is funny that, uh, we've discussed a

883
00:48:08,920 --> 00:48:11,840
Speaker 1: lot of these episodes how overconfidence can both lead to

884
00:48:12,040 --> 00:48:15,960
Speaker 1: disaster and and negative outcomes, but can also in some

885
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:20,280
Speaker 1: cases be highly rewarded and be very lucrative. Yeah. Yeah,

886
00:48:21,040 --> 00:48:25,200
Speaker 1: you know, I'm also remind talking about, you know, curbing

887
00:48:25,360 --> 00:48:28,680
Speaker 1: overconfidence or the perception of overconfidence by making statements that

888
00:48:28,760 --> 00:48:31,719
Speaker 1: cannot be put to the test. You of course see

889
00:48:31,719 --> 00:48:34,120
Speaker 1: that a lot in the business world. You know that

890
00:48:34,440 --> 00:48:37,360
Speaker 1: if you're saying you're the best car dealership in the galaxy,

891
00:48:38,040 --> 00:48:39,839
Speaker 1: you know that you can get away with saying you're

892
00:48:39,880 --> 00:48:43,560
Speaker 1: the best car dealership in town. Well, then people can say, well,

893
00:48:43,640 --> 00:48:45,960
Speaker 1: let's see your sales numbers, let's compare you to gems

894
00:48:46,000 --> 00:48:48,080
Speaker 1: across town. No, even that would be easier to get

895
00:48:48,080 --> 00:48:49,560
Speaker 1: away with, Like the one that would be hard to

896
00:48:49,560 --> 00:48:51,720
Speaker 1: get away with is saying like we have the lowest

897
00:48:51,800 --> 00:48:54,600
Speaker 1: prices in town or something like that. Then you're like,

898
00:48:55,000 --> 00:48:57,640
Speaker 1: then you're stuck either that's true or that's not right.

899
00:48:58,400 --> 00:49:00,520
Speaker 1: But then again, on a personal the first all level,

900
00:49:00,560 --> 00:49:02,600
Speaker 1: you know, you can have your mug that says world's

901
00:49:02,640 --> 00:49:05,680
Speaker 1: Greatest dad and nobody's gonna call you on that. What

902
00:49:05,800 --> 00:49:09,759
Speaker 1: you can get out your dad ruler and measure me. Yeah,

903
00:49:09,840 --> 00:49:12,319
Speaker 1: all right, So I think we've we've reached the end

904
00:49:12,360 --> 00:49:16,120
Speaker 1: of our discussion here for the week on overconfidence, but

905
00:49:16,200 --> 00:49:18,640
Speaker 1: clearly there's a there's a lot of material here. It'll

906
00:49:18,680 --> 00:49:21,200
Speaker 1: be interesting to hear back from listeners because I think

907
00:49:21,200 --> 00:49:23,040
Speaker 1: we all have some perspective on this. We all have

908
00:49:23,120 --> 00:49:27,719
Speaker 1: experience with with over confidence in others or certainly in

909
00:49:27,880 --> 00:49:31,600
Speaker 1: over confidence in ourselves or the management of overconfidence in ourselves,

910
00:49:31,920 --> 00:49:34,160
Speaker 1: and so we we'd love to hear everyone's thoughts on this.

911
00:49:34,880 --> 00:49:36,400
Speaker 1: In the meantime, if you want to check out other

912
00:49:36,440 --> 00:49:38,680
Speaker 1: episodes of Stuff to Blow your Mind, you can find

913
00:49:38,719 --> 00:49:41,640
Speaker 1: them wherever you find your podcasts. If you go to

914
00:49:41,640 --> 00:49:43,600
Speaker 1: stuff to Blow your Mind dot com, that will lead

915
00:49:43,600 --> 00:49:46,240
Speaker 1: you over to the I Heart listing for our show,

916
00:49:46,760 --> 00:49:49,520
Speaker 1: but you can find us anywhere and wherever that happens

917
00:49:49,560 --> 00:49:52,480
Speaker 1: to be. Just make sure you rate, review, and subscribe

918
00:49:52,760 --> 00:49:55,520
Speaker 1: that really helps us out huge thanks as always to

919
00:49:55,520 --> 00:49:58,719
Speaker 1: our excellent audio producer Seth Nicholas Johnson. If you would

920
00:49:58,760 --> 00:50:00,440
Speaker 1: like to get in touch with us with back on

921
00:50:00,480 --> 00:50:03,120
Speaker 1: this episode or any other to suggest topic for the future,

922
00:50:03,239 --> 00:50:06,000
Speaker 1: just to say hey, you can email us at contact

923
00:50:06,080 --> 00:50:15,840
Speaker 1: at stuff to Blow your Mind dot com. Stuff to

924
00:50:15,840 --> 00:50:17,839
Speaker 1: Blow Your Mind is a production of iHeart Radios. How

925
00:50:17,840 --> 00:50:20,239
Speaker 1: stuff Works. For more podcasts from my Heart Radio is

926
00:50:20,280 --> 00:50:22,920
Speaker 1: at the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you

927
00:50:22,920 --> 00:50:33,080
Speaker 1: listen to your favorite shows.