WEBVTT - Morgan Stanley Could Struggle Long-Term Without An ETF Solution 0:00:01.400 --> 0:00:04.120 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along 0:00:04.120 --> 0:00:06.200 with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:10.360 we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, 0:00:10.400 --> 0:00:13.600 along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets 0:00:13.600 --> 0:00:17.000 Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, 0:00:17.000 --> 0:00:20.759 and on Bloomberg dot com. I want to point out 0:00:20.760 --> 0:00:24.160 that stocks are higher, they are spiking just a little 0:00:24.200 --> 0:00:26.920 bit because we have word that President Trump has approved 0:00:26.960 --> 0:00:31.000 a revised stimulus package. This is coming from Larry Cuddler, 0:00:31.000 --> 0:00:34.800 who's speaking on Fox Business right now again. President Trump 0:00:34.880 --> 0:00:39.560 has approved a revised stimulus package. He spoke with Mark Meadows, 0:00:39.560 --> 0:00:41.800 the chief of staff on the Treasury Secretary, Steve Manuchien. 0:00:42.040 --> 0:00:44.080 Of course, we all know that he is just one 0:00:44.240 --> 0:00:47.159 of the people involved in all of this. Right, the 0:00:47.159 --> 0:00:50.600 Democrats also have to sign on to anything, and obviously 0:00:50.600 --> 0:00:53.400 the Republicans have to sign on, although presumably they would. 0:00:53.680 --> 0:00:55.880 We don't know what's in this revised Tomla's package. We'll 0:00:55.920 --> 0:00:59.280 see how much comes out, but it does signal a 0:00:59.280 --> 0:01:01.760 willingness for President tomp to do a U turn on 0:01:01.840 --> 0:01:05.760 that idea that he was completely shutting down all stimulus 0:01:05.760 --> 0:01:09.160 package conversations A look a bit more of that in 0:01:09.200 --> 0:01:11.679 a moment, But while we are wait more details, let's 0:01:11.680 --> 0:01:16.200 bring in Eric maltunas senior et F analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. Eric, 0:01:16.240 --> 0:01:18.760 obviously this is changing the narrative for the day, but 0:01:18.920 --> 0:01:21.160 do talk to us about everything that's happened this week 0:01:21.200 --> 0:01:25.440 in terms of Morgan Stanley buying Eating Vance and also 0:01:25.600 --> 0:01:29.160 you know, Vanguard returning assets to China's state funds. There's 0:01:29.160 --> 0:01:32.160 a lot going on in the t F space. Yeah. No, 0:01:32.319 --> 0:01:35.960 this is giant asset managers doing big things, starting with 0:01:35.959 --> 0:01:38.240 the Morgan Stanley. Um. This was a little bit of 0:01:38.280 --> 0:01:41.399 a shock apparently Eating Vance went to Morgan Stanley, which 0:01:41.440 --> 0:01:44.400 I don't blame them. If I'm running legacy mutual fund 0:01:44.560 --> 0:01:47.440 shop and I don't really have a strong et s 0:01:47.480 --> 0:01:50.560 game or passive game, I would look to go to 0:01:51.080 --> 0:01:53.720 merge with people get really big. That way, you have 0:01:53.800 --> 0:01:56.680 scale and you can lower fees and maybe compete more 0:01:56.720 --> 0:02:00.400 aggressively get some extra distributions. So it makes sense that bistically, 0:02:00.760 --> 0:02:03.240 I do think that what Morgan Stanley was after with 0:02:03.280 --> 0:02:06.480 eat Advance was direct indexing, which is sort of like 0:02:06.560 --> 0:02:10.560 separately managed accounts that are for advisors. We think that 0:02:11.040 --> 0:02:14.639 demand is overstated. If you look, direct indexing maybe took 0:02:14.680 --> 0:02:17.880 in three four or five billion this year. ETS have 0:02:17.960 --> 0:02:21.399 taken in about three and fifty. So you know, it's 0:02:21.440 --> 0:02:24.040 going to be tough for Morgan Stanley to compete against 0:02:24.080 --> 0:02:28.520 ets and traditional index funds with these ventures. But for now, 0:02:28.600 --> 0:02:31.000 it's I think a smart move by them because the 0:02:31.000 --> 0:02:33.600 bigger you get than it's easier to lower the fees, 0:02:34.040 --> 0:02:35.839 and that is really the name of the game. And 0:02:36.200 --> 0:02:38.680 where a lot of the flows are going is funds 0:02:38.680 --> 0:02:41.600 that are on the cheaper side. So that's the Morgan 0:02:41.680 --> 0:02:45.360 Stanley situation. So pretty good, but I think they'll struggle 0:02:45.400 --> 0:02:48.040 long term. But without that E t F solution. So 0:02:48.360 --> 0:02:50.800 you know, what is E t F solution for a 0:02:50.840 --> 0:02:54.840 big shop like a Morgan Stanley, d A BYDA build. 0:02:54.960 --> 0:02:58.440 How do you really increase your share there? Here's what 0:02:58.480 --> 0:03:01.960 everybody's doing. They're basically buying the end customer. And so 0:03:02.040 --> 0:03:04.639 if you Morgan Stam has a bunch of advisors, if 0:03:04.680 --> 0:03:09.000 you have access in distribution we call captive audience, then 0:03:09.360 --> 0:03:12.440 you can pretty much give you have some control over 0:03:12.480 --> 0:03:15.519 what you give them. The question is even that captive audience. 0:03:15.600 --> 0:03:17.200 I just don't I don't know if they're going to 0:03:17.280 --> 0:03:20.040 want a Calvert mutual fund. A Calvert e s G 0:03:20.240 --> 0:03:23.040 mutual fund charges you know, let's say seventy to eight 0:03:23.160 --> 0:03:25.840 basis points. You can get a Vanguard e s G 0:03:26.040 --> 0:03:28.960 E T S or black Rock one for ten to fifteen. 0:03:29.520 --> 0:03:32.200 And so the e t S is just so much cheaper. 0:03:32.320 --> 0:03:35.960 It's liquid there, it's tax efficient. So it's difficult even 0:03:35.960 --> 0:03:38.480 with the captive audience to do that. But a lot 0:03:38.520 --> 0:03:42.360 of the issuers, Goldman, Vanguard, Swab, what they're doing is 0:03:42.400 --> 0:03:44.960 they have e t s and they can use their 0:03:45.000 --> 0:03:47.800 captive audience get some assets and flows, and then that 0:03:48.360 --> 0:03:50.680 brings people outside of the captive audience to those e 0:03:50.760 --> 0:03:53.480 t s. So that's the new name of the game 0:03:53.520 --> 0:03:55.600 is it's have some investors lined up, launch y e 0:03:55.600 --> 0:03:57.440 t f s, get assets in there, and try to 0:03:57.480 --> 0:04:00.680 attract retail investors outside of that. Morgan Stanley appears to 0:04:00.720 --> 0:04:02.240 be doing something like that. They're just gonna try to 0:04:02.280 --> 0:04:04.720 use direct indexing and mutual funds to do it, and 0:04:04.720 --> 0:04:06.040 I just think it will be harder without the e 0:04:06.120 --> 0:04:09.600 t F. Yeah, it's so interesting how the landscape has 0:04:09.680 --> 0:04:12.440 changing I mean, I guess it always needs to change. 0:04:13.360 --> 0:04:14.840 We have a great story on the Bloomberg today. But 0:04:14.960 --> 0:04:17.520 wealthy American families being told by their advisors they need 0:04:17.560 --> 0:04:20.640 to act now or risk losing millions of dollars in 0:04:20.680 --> 0:04:23.400 case Democrats win back the White House and Senate and 0:04:23.600 --> 0:04:27.800 all of the loopholes that President Trump ushered in in 0:04:27.880 --> 0:04:32.039 terms of state tax rules get reversed. How much does 0:04:32.080 --> 0:04:34.960 this impact the E T F space? Eric, I mean, 0:04:35.040 --> 0:04:36.840 are these people that sort of buy E T F? 0:04:37.040 --> 0:04:41.640 Or is that not even in their sphere of vision? Um. So, 0:04:42.040 --> 0:04:45.080 you know Obama before he left, he had tried to 0:04:45.120 --> 0:04:50.760 put through the fiduciary rule. The Trunk dismantled that fiduciary 0:04:50.839 --> 0:04:54.119 rule if Biden were to win and reinforce that, Um, 0:04:54.240 --> 0:04:56.080 which we think is a pretty good rule, basically just 0:04:56.120 --> 0:04:59.600 says if you're a wealth manager and you're advising clients, 0:04:59.640 --> 0:05:02.320 you need to keep their best interests at heart. Um. 0:05:02.360 --> 0:05:04.799 It's really sad they need a rule for that, but anyway, 0:05:04.920 --> 0:05:08.440 they that's the rule. And so essentially that would mean 0:05:08.520 --> 0:05:12.279 that the best interest would mean cheap and you possibly 0:05:12.360 --> 0:05:14.800 could be sued or gailed at if you put somebody 0:05:14.839 --> 0:05:17.120 in say a mutual fund because you've got to you know, 0:05:17.160 --> 0:05:19.880 a commission on it or something. So the more that 0:05:20.040 --> 0:05:22.960 fiduciary rule is in play, the better it would be 0:05:23.000 --> 0:05:25.479 for E T F and passive. Now if they put 0:05:25.520 --> 0:05:30.120 taxes on trading or capital gains, um, I don't know, 0:05:30.160 --> 0:05:32.360 maybe that would hurt everybody at the same time, and 0:05:32.440 --> 0:05:34.520 ets to be part of that. The other thing is 0:05:34.560 --> 0:05:37.880 a Biden administration. Mike mcgloan was just writing, and I 0:05:37.880 --> 0:05:39.240 agree with them. Could be better for a bit poin 0:05:39.279 --> 0:05:43.480 ets to be launched. We think that that's ultimately positive 0:05:43.520 --> 0:05:48.400 too so, but Biden, unlike Bernie, is pretty moderate, so 0:05:48.520 --> 0:05:51.040 I don't see a ton changing. I just I think 0:05:51.040 --> 0:05:53.320 that d O the d L rule. Otherwise it was 0:05:53.360 --> 0:05:55.920 the fiduciary rule is probably the main thing to keep 0:05:55.960 --> 0:05:58.720 your eye on if Biden wins. Hey, Erica saw a 0:05:58.760 --> 0:06:02.760 story on the Bloomberg. Uh, Vanguard returning twenty one billion 0:06:02.760 --> 0:06:07.479 dollars in assets to China's state funds. What's going on there? Yeah, 0:06:07.520 --> 0:06:11.200 this is a unique Uh honestly didn't know they managed 0:06:11.240 --> 0:06:14.039 that much for the Chinese government. Um. You know, when 0:06:14.040 --> 0:06:16.880 we look at Vanguard, their international exposure is pretty weak 0:06:16.960 --> 0:06:20.080 compared to other issuers like black Rock, because mostly in 0:06:20.080 --> 0:06:23.120 other places there's a commission based system UM, and they 0:06:23.120 --> 0:06:26.120 haven't moved to that fee based fiduciary system, which is 0:06:26.160 --> 0:06:29.920 mostly happening in the US anyway. UM. For all intents 0:06:29.920 --> 0:06:32.600 and purposes, what happened here is they're just giving back 0:06:32.640 --> 0:06:35.240 a twenty one billion that they managed for institutions. That 0:06:35.360 --> 0:06:37.400 is a tough business. Institutions wants you to do all 0:06:37.400 --> 0:06:40.440 this work for like one basis point, and it's just 0:06:40.560 --> 0:06:42.960 a lot of efforts. So they want to give that 0:06:43.000 --> 0:06:45.440 back and put their focus on what I call the 0:06:45.480 --> 0:06:48.599 holy grail, which is the retail investor in China. You know, 0:06:48.640 --> 0:06:51.440 there's a billion people there. It's like three Americas. And 0:06:51.480 --> 0:06:54.120 what they've done is teamed up with a financial and 0:06:54.160 --> 0:06:56.800 a robo advisor, and they're hoping that they can do 0:06:56.880 --> 0:07:00.160 what they did here over there, because that would the 0:07:00.240 --> 0:07:02.800 robo advisors fee based right up their alley. So I 0:07:02.800 --> 0:07:07.240 think they're just streamlining their focus away from institutions onto retail. Interesting. Eric, 0:07:07.240 --> 0:07:09.080 thank you so much for joining us. We always loved 0:07:09.120 --> 0:07:12.360 talking about the E T F business. Nobody better on 0:07:12.360 --> 0:07:14.560 the street to do with an Eric Baltunus. He's been 0:07:14.560 --> 0:07:17.280 doing the E t S since I think the beginning 0:07:17.760 --> 0:07:20.520 of the E t F business for Bloomberg Intelligence, he's 0:07:20.520 --> 0:07:22.560 a senior et F analysts and Fannie. It's it's just 0:07:22.640 --> 0:07:25.120 interesting here as we think about the E t F business. 0:07:25.160 --> 0:07:29.280 The feed differential is so key, and it's such an 0:07:29.320 --> 0:07:34.680 attractive vehicle for retail investors. Yeah, for sure, and some 0:07:34.760 --> 0:07:36.240 of them not last very long and some of them 0:07:36.280 --> 0:07:40.480 are around forever. So definitely you know an area to 0:07:40.560 --> 0:07:43.560 study if you're again getting involved in them. But Paul, 0:07:43.600 --> 0:07:46.560 I just want to return to the stimulus headline. I mean, 0:07:46.560 --> 0:07:49.080 this changes the dynamic going into the weekend once again. 0:07:49.240 --> 0:07:51.400 If the President is willing for talks to go ahead, 0:07:51.600 --> 0:07:54.400 does suddenly Nancy Pelosi become more willing to reach a 0:07:54.480 --> 0:07:57.120 deal or was it was it fine that that we 0:07:57.120 --> 0:07:58.960 weren't going to have a deal before the election for 0:07:59.080 --> 0:08:04.400 the Dems. Will see, but stocks certainly moving higher. The 0:08:04.440 --> 0:08:08.120 International Council of Shopping Center is this Holiday shopping Intentions 0:08:08.240 --> 0:08:12.080 survey is out? It's hard to believe it's coming close. 0:08:12.120 --> 0:08:15.080 We're already in the middle of October, and so let's 0:08:15.120 --> 0:08:19.120 welcome Tommy, President and Chief Executive Officer of the I C. S. C. 0:08:19.560 --> 0:08:24.520 And Tom. There's a lot unpacking here. You represented a 0:08:24.560 --> 0:08:27.520 sample of one thousand and four US respondents, but your 0:08:27.560 --> 0:08:30.840 members of number over seventy thousand. So before we get 0:08:30.840 --> 0:08:34.000 to what seems to be rosier than you might expect, outlook, 0:08:34.320 --> 0:08:37.240 talk to us about how your members are faring right now, 0:08:37.280 --> 0:08:41.800 how many are open, how many are losing money? Well, 0:08:41.840 --> 0:08:44.240 good morning, and thanks for having me on. You know, 0:08:44.320 --> 0:08:48.720 I think we're in a very uncertain environment. Obviously, you 0:08:48.760 --> 0:08:53.040 know the our industry is that the epicenter of the 0:08:53.040 --> 0:08:57.280 pandemic and stay at home orders and other safety requirements, 0:08:57.280 --> 0:09:00.560 and so I think it varies depending upon where you 0:09:00.559 --> 0:09:03.280 are in the country, and obviously you know the nature 0:09:03.280 --> 0:09:08.000 of retail um that you offer. But I think generally speaking, 0:09:08.000 --> 0:09:10.320 our members have done a good job of managing through 0:09:10.559 --> 0:09:14.800 a unprecedented period of time. We are looking forward to 0:09:14.840 --> 0:09:17.880 the holiday season and expected to be I would say 0:09:17.920 --> 0:09:23.559 solid for a variety of reasons, um most most significantly 0:09:23.640 --> 0:09:26.240 because I think consumers spending over the course of this 0:09:26.360 --> 0:09:29.720 past year has been less than you know, we would 0:09:29.800 --> 0:09:32.600 have hoped for given the pandemic, and people will lean 0:09:32.679 --> 0:09:36.400 in more significantly into the holiday as a result. So Tom, 0:09:36.440 --> 0:09:40.040 just give us a sense, UM's kind of mall traffic. 0:09:40.120 --> 0:09:41.640 I guess if you will. I'm not sure how you 0:09:41.640 --> 0:09:45.800 guys really measure it. Small traffic this year, how how 0:09:46.040 --> 0:09:52.000 down is it? Well? I think it clearly clearly traffic 0:09:52.000 --> 0:09:54.079 will be down this year for obvious reasons. I mean 0:09:54.120 --> 0:09:58.160 there's you know, obviously occupancy restrictions. I mean, clearly consumer 0:09:58.240 --> 0:10:01.840 is concerned about safety and security. I think a lot 0:10:01.880 --> 0:10:04.600 of the malls have done a lot obviously to try 0:10:04.640 --> 0:10:08.960 to alleviate those concerns, everything from mass requirements to you know, 0:10:09.000 --> 0:10:12.080 putting up one way aisles and contact barriers, and the 0:10:12.120 --> 0:10:15.440 retailers as well. But you know, this holiday season, you know, 0:10:15.520 --> 0:10:18.079 e commerce will continue to grow. I think the trends 0:10:18.080 --> 0:10:20.640 that we've seen over the course of the pandemic will 0:10:20.679 --> 0:10:23.880 continue to be front and center use of e commerce. 0:10:23.920 --> 0:10:27.880 But those retailers that really merge their e commerce platforms 0:10:27.920 --> 0:10:32.400 with their physical retail platforms will do the best. You 0:10:32.440 --> 0:10:35.600 will see a continuation of things like curbside pick up 0:10:35.720 --> 0:10:39.400 and click and collect, etcetera be front and center, um, 0:10:39.440 --> 0:10:44.000 particularly during the holiday season, where there'll be significant you know, 0:10:44.080 --> 0:10:47.640 there'll be significant tension in just the delivery system given 0:10:47.679 --> 0:10:49.880 the you know, the volume that will take place, and 0:10:49.920 --> 0:10:53.280 people will want the comfort of going and doing curbside 0:10:53.280 --> 0:10:55.959 pick up to make sure that they have the goods 0:10:55.960 --> 0:10:58.880 in place. I also think I would not you know, 0:10:58.920 --> 0:11:01.240 I wouldn't read to my into this year as it 0:11:01.280 --> 0:11:04.640 relates to a future trend. I mean, it's hard to 0:11:04.679 --> 0:11:07.520 know how all of these things will impact, you know, 0:11:07.559 --> 0:11:10.720 the long term nature the way people's shop in retail. 0:11:11.040 --> 0:11:14.200 I do know right now, Um, you know, certainly the 0:11:14.200 --> 0:11:17.520 consumer is going to put safety front and center, and 0:11:17.520 --> 0:11:19.800 they're much more efficient in their shopping. I mean, they're 0:11:19.880 --> 0:11:21.960 much more purposeful. If you go to a store, you're 0:11:22.360 --> 0:11:24.760 much more likely to know exactly what you want to purchase, 0:11:24.840 --> 0:11:27.520 you're gonna go purchase it, and you're gonna leave. And 0:11:27.520 --> 0:11:31.520 and that's again back to safety and a focus upon that. So, Tom, 0:11:31.559 --> 0:11:36.560 your outlook forecasts increased spending with a longer holiday shopping season, 0:11:36.640 --> 0:11:40.360 hoping out in that regard, that's a rosy outlook. Does 0:11:40.400 --> 0:11:43.400 it depend on stimulus And if we don't get stimulus, 0:11:43.520 --> 0:11:47.680 will this forecast change entirely? Yeah? I think there's obviously 0:11:47.720 --> 0:11:49.920 it's a very difficult year to make a forecast, and 0:11:50.000 --> 0:11:52.319 so I think when we look at um at one 0:11:52.360 --> 0:11:57.000 point percent spending increase, you know, it assumes that things 0:11:57.040 --> 0:12:00.320 like stimulus would take place that it certainly is assumes 0:12:00.320 --> 0:12:04.640 that the unemployment picture remains stable. Uh. And certainly you 0:12:04.679 --> 0:12:08.440 know that we've managed the pandemic has managed effectively over 0:12:08.480 --> 0:12:11.040 the course of the next number of months. If government 0:12:11.080 --> 0:12:13.480 stimulus does not come through, which I think is critical 0:12:13.559 --> 0:12:15.960 not just for our industry but for the overall economy, 0:12:16.040 --> 0:12:19.679 to be perfectly honest with you, uh. And there's significant 0:12:19.679 --> 0:12:22.480 spikes in the virus, obviously that's going to have a 0:12:22.559 --> 0:12:26.240 negative impact upon our forecast. You know what's driving our forecast, 0:12:26.320 --> 0:12:29.480 quite frankly, is if you look at people are spending 0:12:29.520 --> 0:12:32.360 a lot less on things that they traditionally spent things 0:12:32.679 --> 0:12:35.120 it's spent money on going out to eat, for example, 0:12:35.240 --> 0:12:38.720 entertainment for example. And so that we believe that some 0:12:38.840 --> 0:12:41.040 of that money that would have historically been spent in 0:12:41.080 --> 0:12:44.360 those things will be contributed to holiday spending. And and 0:12:44.400 --> 0:12:48.360 I think you know, family uh is highly important right now. 0:12:48.720 --> 0:12:53.600 Uh And and parents with kids will likely invest in 0:12:53.720 --> 0:12:56.600 the holiday to try to help kids that are obviously 0:12:56.600 --> 0:12:58.640 going through a challenging period of time. As well through 0:12:58.640 --> 0:13:01.200 the pandemic. Tom, just give us a sense here. We 0:13:01.280 --> 0:13:06.720 hear that the US is still way overstored that shopping uh, 0:13:06.760 --> 0:13:10.160 that these retailers need to cut their store count. How 0:13:10.200 --> 0:13:14.080 do you view that? Yes, well, I think it's hard 0:13:14.120 --> 0:13:17.680 to measure that right now, because you don't really you know, again, 0:13:17.760 --> 0:13:19.839 we're in the midst of kind of an unprecedented period 0:13:19.840 --> 0:13:22.240 of time. I think what I would generally say is 0:13:22.280 --> 0:13:26.240 that those retailers that went into the pandemic in you know, 0:13:26.320 --> 0:13:30.760 relatively stable shape with a strong balance sheet, are going 0:13:30.800 --> 0:13:34.600 to emerge from the pandemic um you know, Okay, those 0:13:34.720 --> 0:13:38.760 retailers that went into the pandemic where they were suffering 0:13:38.840 --> 0:13:42.120 from a declining, declining revenue and did not have a 0:13:42.120 --> 0:13:45.839 strong balance sheet. Obviously, we've seen the ramifications of it, 0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:48.560 and we've seen you know, a lot of store closures. 0:13:48.840 --> 0:13:51.360 It's hard for me to predict, you know, how what 0:13:51.480 --> 0:13:54.440 the long term impact of that will be once we 0:13:54.480 --> 0:13:58.400 emerge in the pandemic. I'm quite confident of of really 0:13:58.440 --> 0:14:01.040 two things. One, I think, you know, the industry has 0:14:01.080 --> 0:14:02.880 gone through lots of shocks in the past, and I 0:14:02.960 --> 0:14:06.719 think like this, but it's going through lots of shops 0:14:06.880 --> 0:14:09.520 and it will emerge from this. But and I think 0:14:09.520 --> 0:14:13.320 retailers are very entrepreneur in data, and I think that 0:14:13.400 --> 0:14:17.000 they will they will adapt as well. Hey, Tom, thanks 0:14:17.040 --> 0:14:19.240 so much for joining us. We really appreciate your thoughts. 0:14:19.240 --> 0:14:22.640 Tommy Gee, President, Chief Executive Officer of the International Council 0:14:23.040 --> 0:14:25.600 of Shopping Centers, giving us his thoughts about the retail 0:14:25.680 --> 0:14:30.840 holiday shopping season coming up. Well, President Donald Trump is 0:14:31.040 --> 0:14:34.400 planning to get back on the campaign trout. The question 0:14:34.480 --> 0:14:36.760 is is that wise for someone who has recently been 0:14:36.760 --> 0:14:39.680 diagnosed with COVID nineteen UH. To get the answers to 0:14:39.720 --> 0:14:43.240 that and other questions, we welcome Lauren Sour, Assistant Professor 0:14:43.280 --> 0:14:47.520 of Emergency Medicine the John Hopps JOHNS. Hopkins School of Medicine, 0:14:47.520 --> 0:14:49.440 and should note that the Bloomberg School of Public Health 0:14:49.840 --> 0:14:52.160 is supported by Michael Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg LP and 0:14:52.160 --> 0:14:55.960 Bloomberg Philanthropies, as well as this radio and TV operation. 0:14:56.480 --> 0:14:59.080 Dr Sour thanks so much for joining us here. So again, 0:14:59.120 --> 0:15:02.440 President Trump is itching to get back on the campaign trail, 0:15:02.520 --> 0:15:07.280 potentially having a rally. I guess tomorrow is that wise 0:15:07.600 --> 0:15:10.280 for someone who again has recently been diagnosed with COVID 0:15:10.360 --> 0:15:15.200 nineteen no, in fact that it actually violates the CDC 0:15:15.360 --> 0:15:18.240 guidelines about self isolation. And I think a lot of 0:15:18.280 --> 0:15:23.120 people saw the UM interview that he had with Sean 0:15:23.200 --> 0:15:26.560 Hannity where he was coughing, and we've seen him, you know, 0:15:26.680 --> 0:15:31.320 having these challenging breathing processes on video in both his 0:15:31.400 --> 0:15:35.040 return from Walter Reid but also in more recent videos, 0:15:35.200 --> 0:15:37.800 and anyone who sees that can see that he is 0:15:37.800 --> 0:15:42.160 still experiencing symptoms of COVID nineteen and should definitely be 0:15:42.240 --> 0:15:46.720 self isolating for a minimum of two weeks. Is there 0:15:46.760 --> 0:15:49.760 a point beyond which from de severere and x metho 0:15:49.840 --> 0:15:55.600 zone and whatever else he's taking stops becoming useful. All 0:15:55.640 --> 0:15:59.600 of these drugs have different periods of utility and are 0:16:00.120 --> 0:16:02.960 given it at different times, and it's important to remember 0:16:03.080 --> 0:16:06.160 that they're all still experimental for the treatment of COVID 0:16:06.240 --> 0:16:09.200 nineteen or or infection with stars covie too, so we 0:16:09.280 --> 0:16:14.000 don't actually know the full breadth of um of how 0:16:14.040 --> 0:16:16.840 and when the drugs are useful. I think rem Desiviere 0:16:16.880 --> 0:16:19.720 we have a lot of information on this UM, you know, 0:16:19.800 --> 0:16:24.400 ten five and tender course of of them, oftentimes administered 0:16:24.440 --> 0:16:28.080 in the hospital. They're almost exclusively administered in the hospital 0:16:28.160 --> 0:16:30.720 with regeneron we you know, you want to see in 0:16:30.760 --> 0:16:34.480 these monocola antibodies, the patients being monitored, their auntibody levels 0:16:34.520 --> 0:16:38.480 routinely being checked um and and honestly, we don't often 0:16:39.080 --> 0:16:42.680 discharge people so quickly with steroids like the President was 0:16:42.800 --> 0:16:46.840 with deem xizone and UM. So that is a is 0:16:46.840 --> 0:16:49.840 a concerning sort of development in how that drug was 0:16:49.880 --> 0:16:55.640 administered and then how he's monitored post administration. So, Professor, 0:16:55.920 --> 0:16:59.840 this treatment how or is that something that you think 0:17:01.240 --> 0:17:03.600 is going to be widely deployed for patients. I'm just 0:17:03.600 --> 0:17:07.080 wondering how the President Trump's doctors kind of zeroed in 0:17:07.200 --> 0:17:11.439 on that as potential treatment. Um and it appears at 0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:15.560 least to be successful in the President's case. Yeah, I 0:17:15.600 --> 0:17:17.679 think we can't really know if it was successful in 0:17:17.680 --> 0:17:20.119 the President's case because we don't have a lot of 0:17:20.200 --> 0:17:24.200 data in a nice, well designed clinical trial. And so, 0:17:24.560 --> 0:17:26.720 you know, there's so many factors that go into the 0:17:26.760 --> 0:17:29.840 President's medical care. He is getting the best of the 0:17:29.880 --> 0:17:32.560 best medical care, and so one of the reasons we 0:17:32.640 --> 0:17:35.280 use clinical trials is to weed out some of those 0:17:35.359 --> 0:17:39.320 confounding factors. Um, you know, standard of care, the other 0:17:39.359 --> 0:17:42.920 things he's been given, the supportive care, he got, the fluids, 0:17:43.000 --> 0:17:45.119 all of those other things when he made it his 0:17:45.160 --> 0:17:49.760 way into the hospital. So while it is probably UM, 0:17:49.800 --> 0:17:53.400 you know, we'll probably learn a lot more about these UH, 0:17:53.560 --> 0:17:57.440 these monoclonal antibodies soon as they go through this clinical 0:17:57.480 --> 0:18:02.080 trial protocol. UM, we can't really stay explicitly. We can 0:18:02.080 --> 0:18:04.399 guess that they helped, but we can't say explicitly that 0:18:04.480 --> 0:18:08.560 they did. UM. We use monoclonal antibodies and monoclonal antibody 0:18:08.560 --> 0:18:12.920 cocktails in many other situations and they are effective. UM, 0:18:12.960 --> 0:18:15.240 and we know their utility, which is I'm sure why 0:18:15.280 --> 0:18:19.960 we're general and many other UH pharmaceutical companies have gone 0:18:19.960 --> 0:18:23.199 down the path of creating them for COVID nineteen. But 0:18:23.359 --> 0:18:26.359 until we have that good clinical trial data, we just 0:18:26.440 --> 0:18:30.040 can't make any generalizations from this one very specific, very 0:18:30.160 --> 0:18:34.480 high level of care case. Yeah, doctors, our is physical 0:18:34.520 --> 0:18:38.000 exertion detrimental beyond a certain point. So we know the 0:18:38.000 --> 0:18:40.440 doctors recommend that you stay active and that you try 0:18:40.480 --> 0:18:43.479 and keep all of your bodily functions as functioning as 0:18:43.520 --> 0:18:46.119 possible during this it's not really helpful to rest in 0:18:46.119 --> 0:18:49.119 fact of anything, It just gives the virus a better chance. 0:18:49.520 --> 0:18:52.439 But beyond a certain point, you have to ask the question, 0:18:52.960 --> 0:18:55.520 if the resident is getting better, is there a chance 0:18:55.520 --> 0:18:59.120 that he'll relapse by exerting himself so much, going on rallies, 0:18:59.160 --> 0:19:02.800 being on TV every nice and every morning. Yes, it's 0:19:02.800 --> 0:19:05.760 absolutely a risk. And you know he's on dexim foflon 0:19:05.920 --> 0:19:08.720 or was when he was discharged, And so steroids can 0:19:08.760 --> 0:19:11.800 make you feel better in the moment a lot better 0:19:11.840 --> 0:19:14.119 in the moment um, and so he does have the 0:19:14.160 --> 0:19:17.640 potential to sort of overdo it um and overexert and 0:19:17.720 --> 0:19:22.000 possibly cause challenges to his breathing and his recovery UM 0:19:22.040 --> 0:19:25.600 and and potentially do more harm to himself. So you know, 0:19:25.880 --> 0:19:28.440 I'm not a physician, so I am, and I'm not 0:19:28.520 --> 0:19:31.200 on his clinical care team, but I will say that 0:19:31.240 --> 0:19:34.560 there we have seen in our data, at least from Hopkins, 0:19:34.560 --> 0:19:36.960 but also I think more broadly across the globe that 0:19:37.040 --> 0:19:41.080 people do have these short term recoveries and then um 0:19:41.240 --> 0:19:43.639 get a lot worse. So if you overdo it in 0:19:43.640 --> 0:19:46.800 that short term recovery space, you have the potential to 0:19:46.840 --> 0:19:50.080 get a lot worse um and and not recover as 0:19:50.119 --> 0:19:53.359 as effectively as you did that first go around. So 0:19:53.520 --> 0:19:56.320 just real quickly, dr um. I think President Trump is 0:19:56.359 --> 0:19:59.200 going to get a medical exam on top of Carlson 0:19:59.280 --> 0:20:03.119 tonight on by the Fox Doctor. What should we be 0:20:03.200 --> 0:20:07.680 looking for there? You know, I'm honestly not sure there's 0:20:07.760 --> 0:20:10.800 much to look for there. I think it's seems from 0:20:10.800 --> 0:20:14.159 everything I've heard like it will be a publicity stunt. Um. 0:20:14.240 --> 0:20:17.359 We have seen this doctor who is going to be 0:20:17.400 --> 0:20:24.240 examining him push misinformation about hydroxychloric quin and about um, 0:20:24.280 --> 0:20:28.840 the the risks associated with coronavirus and how it was 0:20:28.880 --> 0:20:32.640 not much difference than the flu um. So I think 0:20:32.680 --> 0:20:34.720 a lot of it is going to be a narrative 0:20:34.800 --> 0:20:38.879 that the President potentially is pushing, and that you know, 0:20:38.920 --> 0:20:41.600 the findings are not going to actually tell us much 0:20:41.640 --> 0:20:45.800 about his medical status. There's medical care certainly, um. He 0:20:45.840 --> 0:20:48.760 would not let anything go out that that says that 0:20:48.840 --> 0:20:51.920 anything beyond the narrative that he's controlling about his recovery 0:20:52.000 --> 0:20:54.439 and his wellness. So I think that we're going to 0:20:54.480 --> 0:20:57.840 get very limited information about how well he is doing. 0:20:57.920 --> 0:21:00.119 And in fact, I think he's creating a false that 0:21:00.680 --> 0:21:04.119 he is not infectious and safe and healthy. Um that 0:21:04.320 --> 0:21:06.480 how's the potential to do some detriment to the broader 0:21:06.560 --> 0:21:11.159 understanding of how we manage UM post hospital discharge. It 0:21:11.400 --> 0:21:13.399 would be funny, except a lot of people will be watching, 0:21:13.440 --> 0:21:15.440 and so it's not at all funny. Dr Lawrence Ours, 0:21:15.480 --> 0:21:18.199 thank you very much, show Assistant Professor Emergency Medicine at 0:21:18.240 --> 0:21:23.719 Johns Hopkins. Well, we have some deal activity in the 0:21:23.800 --> 0:21:28.359 chips business. A M. D In talks about arrival Zilenx 0:21:28.760 --> 0:21:32.280 for thirty billion dollars. To break down the details, we 0:21:32.440 --> 0:21:36.600 welcome On and Trinivaston's senior semiconductor and hardware analysts for 0:21:36.800 --> 0:21:40.840 Bloomberg Intelligence. He is one of the top chip analysts 0:21:40.840 --> 0:21:42.960 on the street and we appreciate getting some of his time. 0:21:43.000 --> 0:21:46.120 So On and big number here, thirty billion dollar deal. 0:21:46.160 --> 0:21:49.240 What do you make of it? Yeah, it's hey, Paul, 0:21:49.280 --> 0:21:51.760 good morning, Thank you for having me. So this is 0:21:51.920 --> 0:21:54.640 in our view of both an offensive as as well 0:21:54.680 --> 0:21:58.639 as a defensive deal for MD. If you look at 0:21:58.720 --> 0:22:01.560 what's happening in the computing space, I mean this have 0:22:01.760 --> 0:22:04.320 used this ice cream shop analogy before, which is that 0:22:04.920 --> 0:22:08.720 computing has been evolving from an ice cream shop that 0:22:08.800 --> 0:22:13.400