WEBVTT - 2020 NFL Futures and Oscars Predictions (Ep. 48) 0:00:10.600 --> 0:00:13.440 Hey there everyone, Welcome back to a very special edition 0:00:13.520 --> 0:00:16.640 of the Betting Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. 0:00:16.720 --> 0:00:19.080 You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris AD. 0:00:19.560 --> 0:00:21.479 In case you missed it, the Super Bowl is over. 0:00:21.600 --> 0:00:24.639 The twenty nineteen season is officially closed, which means it 0:00:24.720 --> 0:00:27.120 is time to take an early look at the futures 0:00:27.240 --> 0:00:30.040 for the twenty twenty season. Now, look, the twenty twenty 0:00:30.080 --> 0:00:31.760 season is a long way from now. We just got 0:00:31.760 --> 0:00:34.680 past the biggest gambling event of the year. So you know, 0:00:34.680 --> 0:00:36.600 when you try to move on from something like you 0:00:36.640 --> 0:00:38.919 want to cut down on coffee and you don't go 0:00:38.960 --> 0:00:42.000 from three cups a day to zero, you wean yourself off, right, 0:00:42.040 --> 0:00:45.560 So super Bowl's over. Rather than doing nothing for months, 0:00:45.560 --> 0:00:47.920 you can wean yourself off the gambling high that you 0:00:48.000 --> 0:00:50.680 got when the under on Patrick Mahomes rushing yards hit. 0:00:51.200 --> 0:00:53.440 There's a giant event on Sunday one that a ton 0:00:53.520 --> 0:00:55.960 of people in America will be watching and you can 0:00:56.000 --> 0:00:58.760 wager on it. It's called the Oscars. So first we're 0:00:58.760 --> 0:01:00.360 going to take a look at some future for the 0:01:00.400 --> 0:01:03.720 twenty twenty NFL season with Ian McMillan, a writer over 0:01:03.760 --> 0:01:05.920 at Odds shark dot Com. And then we're going to 0:01:05.959 --> 0:01:09.200 bring in a special guest and noted oscar expert Kerry Kerpin, 0:01:09.240 --> 0:01:12.000 the CEO of Likable Media, to break down some of 0:01:12.040 --> 0:01:14.959 the odds on the major Academy awards. Let's get started 0:01:15.000 --> 0:01:17.360 here with Ian, who you can find over on Twitter 0:01:17.680 --> 0:01:22.399 at Ian macOS. That's I, Ai, n Ian. Did you 0:01:22.560 --> 0:01:24.759 have the over or the under on Patrick Mahomes rushing 0:01:24.800 --> 0:01:26.600 yards in the Super Bowl, Because it seems like everyone 0:01:26.680 --> 0:01:28.080 in America had a piece of that bet. 0:01:28.840 --> 0:01:29.960 No, I did not take that. 0:01:30.000 --> 0:01:33.320 One of my coworkers, though, Joe Osborn, a odd shark, 0:01:33.400 --> 0:01:35.520 had the over on it, so he was pretty heart 0:01:35.840 --> 0:01:37.960 broken with how that prop ended. 0:01:38.160 --> 0:01:41.959 I'll be honest, I had the under, and I just 0:01:42.080 --> 0:01:43.319 I had thrown it out. I think it was at 0:01:43.360 --> 0:01:45.160 forty three in the over under. I think I had 0:01:45.200 --> 0:01:47.840 it at thirty and a half or something. That's not 0:01:47.960 --> 0:01:50.920 a bet that happens. That is the worst beat I've 0:01:50.960 --> 0:01:54.360 ever seen in any capacity for any bet. If you 0:01:54.400 --> 0:01:56.280 had the over on it, I will say that I 0:01:56.320 --> 0:02:00.000 read that points bet to their credit. I think basically 0:02:00.120 --> 0:02:02.880 refunded the money for over under, so that's good. I 0:02:02.920 --> 0:02:05.040 don't know if for the people who took the overs. 0:02:05.160 --> 0:02:08.760 I don't know if everybody else did that, but it's 0:02:08.800 --> 0:02:11.519 really the worst beat of all time for any sports. 0:02:11.520 --> 0:02:12.560 I've never seen anything like that. 0:02:12.680 --> 0:02:13.359 Yeah, that's terror. 0:02:13.440 --> 0:02:15.800 He didn't even take normal knees like he took extra 0:02:16.120 --> 0:02:18.520 yards that if he just took normal like the one 0:02:18.600 --> 0:02:21.639 or two yard kneel downs, then course of. 0:02:21.600 --> 0:02:24.280 Course he had a seven yard kneel down. I've never 0:02:24.320 --> 0:02:26.880 seen that before, and I get it running to kill 0:02:26.880 --> 0:02:29.320 some time off the clock. But still, man, as someone 0:02:29.320 --> 0:02:31.520 who had bet the under, I was not disappointed, but 0:02:31.639 --> 0:02:35.280 still I certainly felt bad for the large majority of 0:02:35.280 --> 0:02:37.560 people who had the over, because again, that was that 0:02:37.680 --> 0:02:40.640 was not only a very highly bet prop, but it 0:02:40.680 --> 0:02:43.240 was also something where the vast majority of money came 0:02:43.280 --> 0:02:46.079 in on the over. So that's a tough beat. But again, 0:02:46.160 --> 0:02:47.880 we move on. So let's talk about ways to make 0:02:47.960 --> 0:02:50.200 up for it. Let's talk about some futures. At this point, 0:02:50.200 --> 0:02:52.320 there aren't any books as far as I can tell, 0:02:52.360 --> 0:02:55.160 with divisional winners, so let's just break down the conference 0:02:55.200 --> 0:02:57.360 and Super Bowl futures. All right, let's start with the 0:02:57.400 --> 0:03:00.440 AFC winner. I'm just gonna list out the consensus odds 0:03:00.480 --> 0:03:02.560 for you and our listeners, and then you can talk 0:03:02.600 --> 0:03:05.280 about your favorites. Okay, Now, not surprisingly, the Chiefs, the 0:03:05.280 --> 0:03:07.400 Super Bowl winners, are the favorites next year to win 0:03:07.480 --> 0:03:10.760 the AFC. It's not a big price, it's merely plus 0:03:10.880 --> 0:03:14.079 three hundred. Then you've got the Ravens close behind at 0:03:14.080 --> 0:03:16.440 plus four hundred, little bit of a drop to the 0:03:16.440 --> 0:03:19.000 Patriots at plus seven hundred, a little bit of another 0:03:19.080 --> 0:03:21.640 drop to the Titans and the Steelers at plus ten 0:03:21.680 --> 0:03:24.600 to fifty, and then you're really going downhill. The Browns 0:03:24.600 --> 0:03:28.320 and Texans at plus fifteen hundred, the Bills at plus 0:03:28.360 --> 0:03:32.040 sixteen hundred, the Colts at plus eighteen hundred, the Chargers, 0:03:32.160 --> 0:03:35.040 the Raiders and the Broncos at plus twenty two hundred, 0:03:35.240 --> 0:03:38.280 the Jets at plus three thousand, the Jaguars at plus 0:03:38.320 --> 0:03:41.120 thirty five hundred, followed by the poor little Bengals and 0:03:41.160 --> 0:03:43.680 Dolphins at plus forty five hundred. So what do you think? 0:03:43.920 --> 0:03:46.000 Do we push all our chips in on the Raiders 0:03:46.040 --> 0:03:48.640 at plus twenty two hundred, hope that Tom Brady lands 0:03:48.640 --> 0:03:50.000 there or what's the play here? 0:03:51.040 --> 0:03:52.080 No? I don't think so. 0:03:52.200 --> 0:03:54.560 I mean, I think the NFC is going to be 0:03:54.600 --> 0:03:56.839 a lot more of an interesting conversation because I think 0:03:56.880 --> 0:03:59.280 the AFC is just so top heavy. I mean, obviously 0:03:59.320 --> 0:04:02.000 a million different things can happen between now and Week 0:04:02.040 --> 0:04:04.200 one of the twenty twenty season with the draft, free. 0:04:04.040 --> 0:04:06.200 Agency, who knows what kind of trades might get done. 0:04:07.000 --> 0:04:09.280 But I mean I think it's it's got to be 0:04:09.320 --> 0:04:11.360 the Chief so that that are going to dominate the 0:04:11.400 --> 0:04:14.000 AFC again. Even the Chiefs regular season, I thought they 0:04:14.000 --> 0:04:16.479 didn't have a great regular season. I think they're probably 0:04:16.480 --> 0:04:19.320 gonna have a better regular season next year. The Ravens 0:04:19.360 --> 0:04:21.839 at plus four hundred, I don't really like them because 0:04:21.920 --> 0:04:23.520 I mean, they were kind of a team that just 0:04:23.560 --> 0:04:27.119 exploded over nowhere. They're obviously the best regular season team, 0:04:27.520 --> 0:04:29.800 but I'm not confident enough that they're gonna be able 0:04:29.839 --> 0:04:32.400 to repeat that amazing performance they had this year. So 0:04:32.800 --> 0:04:35.520 as boring and as square of a bet it might be, 0:04:35.640 --> 0:04:37.520 I think really the only bet to make in this 0:04:37.600 --> 0:04:40.800 situation would be the chief at plus three hundred. I mean, 0:04:40.839 --> 0:04:44.039 the only other name that I would even interest me 0:04:44.080 --> 0:04:45.960 a little bit would maybe be the Bills at plus 0:04:46.000 --> 0:04:48.080 sixteen hundred if they can get a couple extra pieces. 0:04:48.120 --> 0:04:50.039 And Josh Allen has a good season next year. 0:04:50.080 --> 0:04:52.120 But I don't really see anyone else given to the 0:04:52.160 --> 0:04:53.840 Chiefs a run for the money unless we see the 0:04:53.960 --> 0:04:56.039 Ravens have another great year like they did last year. 0:04:56.200 --> 0:04:59.599 Yeah, the Bills stuck out to me just because the price, 0:04:59.720 --> 0:05:02.240 you know, plus sixteen hundred, those are fairly good odds. 0:05:02.400 --> 0:05:06.400 You saw Josh Allen take another step in his second year. 0:05:06.480 --> 0:05:08.920 The play calling was really creative. If they can add 0:05:08.960 --> 0:05:12.600 a few more offensive skill players with that defense, they 0:05:12.640 --> 0:05:14.680 could be a scared team. But you know, don't you 0:05:14.760 --> 0:05:16.760 think a lot? First of all, are you just assuming 0:05:16.920 --> 0:05:19.039 that Tom Brady returns to the Patriots? By the way, 0:05:19.080 --> 0:05:20.599 is that how you're analyzing everything? 0:05:21.320 --> 0:05:23.680 Yes, I am, because there's even there's even a book 0:05:23.680 --> 0:05:25.840 that's offering odds on whether or not Tom Brady's going 0:05:25.880 --> 0:05:27.600 back to the Patriots. I think he's like minus two 0:05:27.680 --> 0:05:28.960 hundred to go back to the Patriots. 0:05:28.960 --> 0:05:30.320 So yeah, most. 0:05:30.120 --> 0:05:32.760 Likely, especially with that Super Bowl that weird Super Bowl 0:05:32.760 --> 0:05:35.360 commercial announcement that he kind of have made. So I 0:05:35.400 --> 0:05:37.120 think he's going to be back on the Patriots. 0:05:37.200 --> 0:05:39.960 Yeh, Yeah, I despise that, you know, the the early 0:05:40.080 --> 0:05:43.080 Instagram post, you know, to make everybody think about it. 0:05:43.120 --> 0:05:45.360 But again, Jets fan living in New England, I won't 0:05:45.360 --> 0:05:47.800 harp on it, so it's tough. Well, let me ad something. 0:05:47.800 --> 0:05:50.120 If he is coming back, why not the Pats at 0:05:50.120 --> 0:05:53.320 plus seven hundred, I mean they had nothing this year whatsoever. 0:05:53.360 --> 0:05:57.000 Their receiving corps was decimated. You have to assume if 0:05:57.000 --> 0:05:59.200 he's going to come back there, he's going to do 0:05:59.240 --> 0:06:01.320 it based on the guarantee that they're going to give 0:06:01.400 --> 0:06:04.480 him a lot more help on offense. So what about them? 0:06:04.480 --> 0:06:06.560 Any value on them at plus seven hundred? Then if 0:06:06.560 --> 0:06:07.880 Brady is coming back, I. 0:06:07.800 --> 0:06:10.320 Mean, if you think that the Patriots are going to 0:06:10.320 --> 0:06:12.839 get weapons this offseason, then getting them at plus seven 0:06:13.000 --> 0:06:14.880 hundred wouldn't be a bad bet now, because if they 0:06:14.920 --> 0:06:17.320 do get weapons, their odds will probably, you know, go up. 0:06:17.920 --> 0:06:19.599 One of the big names that I've kind of seen 0:06:19.640 --> 0:06:21.479 around a little bit is Greg Olsen. He's knock gonna 0:06:21.480 --> 0:06:23.880 be with the Panthers anymore. So, I mean they could 0:06:23.960 --> 0:06:26.039 use a tight end. There's one weapon right there that 0:06:26.080 --> 0:06:28.800 would seem like a pretty easy fit into the Patriots scheme. 0:06:28.960 --> 0:06:31.400 So I mean, yeah, if if you want. 0:06:31.480 --> 0:06:34.200 I mean, I absolutely despise the Patriots, so I would 0:06:34.240 --> 0:06:36.400 never bet on them to win, to win the Super Bowl, 0:06:36.480 --> 0:06:37.320 or to win the AFC. 0:06:37.920 --> 0:06:38.839 But plus seven hundred. 0:06:38.839 --> 0:06:41.239 If they do get the weapons, then now would probably 0:06:41.240 --> 0:06:42.440 be a good time to bet on them. But I 0:06:42.440 --> 0:06:44.800 mean that's a big if if they are going to 0:06:44.800 --> 0:06:47.240 get the weapons that tom Brady's asking for, and then 0:06:47.320 --> 0:06:50.080 even if he does, we saw tom Brady take a 0:06:50.120 --> 0:06:51.640 little bit of a step back this year. Was that 0:06:51.680 --> 0:06:53.880 an anomaly because he didn't have the weapons or was 0:06:53.920 --> 0:06:56.359 he showing his age a little bit? So's there's some 0:06:56.520 --> 0:06:58.760 question marks with the Patriots that would make me hesitant 0:06:58.760 --> 0:06:59.400 to bet on them. 0:06:59.279 --> 0:06:59.960 At this point in time. 0:07:00.120 --> 0:07:01.920 Well, well, let me tell you something that I think 0:07:01.960 --> 0:07:05.599 you're doing life completely wrong. Okay, because I too, as 0:07:05.640 --> 0:07:09.039 I talk about, often despise the Patriots. Just again, Jets 0:07:09.080 --> 0:07:11.440 fan living in New England married into a Patriots fan. 0:07:11.560 --> 0:07:14.160 It has been my nightmare for several years. So I 0:07:14.280 --> 0:07:16.800 always throw a little bit of money on them to 0:07:16.960 --> 0:07:19.960 both win the AFC and the Super Bowl, just because 0:07:19.960 --> 0:07:21.840 I'm like, if I'm going to be miserable, at least 0:07:21.840 --> 0:07:23.600 I need to profit off it a little bit. So 0:07:23.640 --> 0:07:25.960 the fact that you hate them really shouldn't impact that. 0:07:26.320 --> 0:07:28.120 The second point that I'll make with them. Is that 0:07:28.600 --> 0:07:31.360 to me? I really think at this point that Brady 0:07:31.640 --> 0:07:34.680 he does have leverage at this point, and I think 0:07:34.720 --> 0:07:38.440 it's very much gonna be I am not returning unless 0:07:38.480 --> 0:07:40.480 you give me the weapons, and I think they will 0:07:40.480 --> 0:07:42.320 give him the weapons. So I think if you're assuming 0:07:42.360 --> 0:07:44.840 Brady returns, I really do think it's based on the 0:07:44.880 --> 0:07:47.280 promise that they're going to give him somebody to come 0:07:47.280 --> 0:07:49.160 back to. Let me throw a couple of other names 0:07:49.160 --> 0:07:50.680 out here, okay, and let me just see what you 0:07:50.720 --> 0:07:54.240 think of these. Yep, what about the Browns. I know 0:07:54.400 --> 0:07:58.200 this was a disaster. Of course, this whole year basically 0:07:58.320 --> 0:08:00.480 was blue up in smoke. But you know they're at 0:08:00.480 --> 0:08:04.600 plus fifteen hundred. Stefanski comes in. He's gonna help that offense. Obviously, 0:08:04.640 --> 0:08:06.680 it couldn't get any worse than it was. They'll have 0:08:06.720 --> 0:08:08.760 a healthy old El Beckham junior, who you know, you 0:08:08.800 --> 0:08:11.120 assume he's gonna stay. They've got a top ten pick, 0:08:11.240 --> 0:08:13.720 They've got a boatload of cap space. I mean, everybody 0:08:13.880 --> 0:08:15.840 was pretty excited about them coming into the air. I 0:08:15.840 --> 0:08:17.600 think they're over under on wins. Might have been nine 0:08:17.640 --> 0:08:20.280 and a half. Obviously a disaster, but they do have 0:08:20.320 --> 0:08:22.720 a lot of talented pieces with the new coaching staff, 0:08:22.720 --> 0:08:25.400 with Beckham healthy, any chance you think that you can 0:08:25.400 --> 0:08:28.000 find some value on the Browns at plus fifteen. 0:08:27.760 --> 0:08:31.120 Hundred, I mean, I don't think so. 0:08:31.200 --> 0:08:32.840 I think I would have to see the Browns play 0:08:32.880 --> 0:08:34.760 next season before I put any kind of bet on them. 0:08:34.760 --> 0:08:36.880 It really does come down to how good of a 0:08:36.920 --> 0:08:38.840 coaching job the new guy will do. I don't think 0:08:38.880 --> 0:08:40.880 that that was a great hire by them. I think 0:08:40.920 --> 0:08:42.600 so Law would have been a much better choice, but 0:08:42.600 --> 0:08:45.920 they wanted to get this guy right after that divisional 0:08:46.000 --> 0:08:48.800 round game, So I think it really does come down 0:08:48.840 --> 0:08:51.240 to him. And with the guys that they have on 0:08:51.280 --> 0:08:53.839 the Browns team, it's hard to coach them because if 0:08:53.840 --> 0:08:55.000 things start falling apart. 0:08:55.080 --> 0:08:56.840 We saw this this past season. 0:08:56.880 --> 0:08:59.520 If things start falling apart a little tiny bit, they 0:08:59.600 --> 0:09:04.640 just they implode. And so because of that reason, I 0:09:04.679 --> 0:09:06.560 can't trust the Browns at all. If they get off 0:09:06.640 --> 0:09:08.280 to a good start and you see a little bit 0:09:08.600 --> 0:09:11.360 of momentum and like as if they were playing like 0:09:11.400 --> 0:09:13.120 a team, then maybe it's a team you want to 0:09:13.120 --> 0:09:15.720 take a shot on after the first couple of weeks. 0:09:15.760 --> 0:09:18.560 But I need to see something from them before I 0:09:18.559 --> 0:09:20.320 could place any kind of futures bet from them. 0:09:20.520 --> 0:09:20.679 Yeah. 0:09:20.720 --> 0:09:23.319 I think the one thing that really does not change 0:09:23.360 --> 0:09:25.080 from this past year is that they have a group 0:09:25.120 --> 0:09:27.840 of personalities where things go south, it's gonna go south. 0:09:27.840 --> 0:09:30.240 And I believe it was Adam Burke who was on 0:09:30.320 --> 0:09:32.640 and he's a Browns fan. We talked about it in 0:09:32.679 --> 0:09:36.120 the preseason last year about how he was not on them. 0:09:36.320 --> 0:09:38.440 You know, they were the most bad team I believe 0:09:38.520 --> 0:09:40.840 to win the Super Bowl, them and the Bears, and 0:09:40.880 --> 0:09:43.000 he was not on them just because you could see 0:09:43.000 --> 0:09:44.920 them getting off to a rough start and then things 0:09:44.920 --> 0:09:48.120 going completely south and it unfolded exactly that way. So 0:09:48.480 --> 0:09:51.679 I get everything you're saying. I'm gonna be really interested 0:09:51.760 --> 0:09:54.640 to see how this offseason unfolds for them, because I 0:09:54.679 --> 0:09:57.320 admit that I'm a little optimistic just given how bad 0:09:57.360 --> 0:09:59.920 everything went last year, and Baker Mayfield's much better core 0:10:00.520 --> 0:10:02.360 and he showed and I do think he can bounce back. 0:10:02.440 --> 0:10:04.640 But let's talk about one other team here for the AFC, 0:10:04.679 --> 0:10:07.440 because they also caught my eye just a little bit 0:10:07.679 --> 0:10:10.320 given their odds, which is at plus eighteen hundred, and 0:10:10.360 --> 0:10:12.840 that's the Colts. You know. The one thing with the Colts. 0:10:13.000 --> 0:10:16.640 Is you know, they played pretty well early on last year, 0:10:16.679 --> 0:10:19.080 they eventually fell apart. T Y Hilton was dealing with 0:10:19.120 --> 0:10:21.960 an injury. Jacoby Brissett not the answer. He was able 0:10:22.000 --> 0:10:24.280 to fill in in what is pretty much an elite 0:10:24.320 --> 0:10:26.600 offensive system because he had been with them now at 0:10:26.600 --> 0:10:29.600 that point for long enough. He was preparing for it, 0:10:29.640 --> 0:10:31.520 so he was ready to come in, and so they 0:10:31.520 --> 0:10:33.640 were able to get by. But you know, they've got 0:10:33.720 --> 0:10:36.720 nearly ninety million dollars in cap space. There are a 0:10:36.720 --> 0:10:39.920 bunch of quarterbacks kind of going around. Maybe Brady I 0:10:39.960 --> 0:10:42.800 know he's going to probably go back to the Patriots, 0:10:42.800 --> 0:10:45.280 but he's certainly out there. Even Philip Rivers, who I 0:10:45.320 --> 0:10:48.960 realized took a downturn there at the end and certainly 0:10:49.040 --> 0:10:51.640 did not play particularly well through the second half of 0:10:51.640 --> 0:10:54.679 the season. Maybe Jameis Winston. There's there are people out 0:10:54.720 --> 0:10:57.800 there who they might be able to add, who could 0:10:57.960 --> 0:11:01.200 be more competent than Brissett. And they have, again the 0:11:01.240 --> 0:11:04.839 elite system. Overall, they're a very talented team, a great 0:11:04.880 --> 0:11:07.160 offensive line. So do you think that there's any chance 0:11:07.240 --> 0:11:09.680 that they could provide some value at plus eighteen hundred? 0:11:09.960 --> 0:11:10.240 Yeah? 0:11:10.280 --> 0:11:12.640 Sure, I don't hate the value there on the Colts. 0:11:13.240 --> 0:11:15.320 The Colts are second on the odds list of land 0:11:15.320 --> 0:11:18.160 Philip Rivers. I think that would be very interesting, especially 0:11:18.720 --> 0:11:20.840 with the receiving corp that the Colts have with t 0:11:21.000 --> 0:11:25.520 Y Hilton Paris Campbell, the Colts rookie receiver this past season. 0:11:25.600 --> 0:11:27.640 He was hurt almost the whole year two. I think 0:11:27.679 --> 0:11:29.360 a lot of people are forgetting about him. He's a 0:11:29.480 --> 0:11:32.280 very talented player. I'd be excited to see how he 0:11:32.320 --> 0:11:35.040 does last or next year once he's healthy. So yeah, 0:11:35.080 --> 0:11:37.880 plus eighteen hundred with kind of I mean, there's no 0:11:38.040 --> 0:11:41.160 real number three, number four team in the AFC that 0:11:41.200 --> 0:11:43.199 could be the Colts that could slide into that spot 0:11:43.240 --> 0:11:44.599 next year if they get a couple of pieces in 0:11:44.640 --> 0:11:46.559 the offseason, So sure, plus eighteen hundred. 0:11:46.760 --> 0:11:48.319 Yeah. I don't hate those odds at all. 0:11:48.520 --> 0:11:50.000 And I think the one thing I'll say about that 0:11:50.080 --> 0:11:51.959 is if you like it like I do, and ETON 0:11:52.120 --> 0:11:55.160 sort of does, this would probably be the time to 0:11:55.160 --> 0:11:58.040 bet it, because if they get an upgraded quarterback, I 0:11:58.080 --> 0:12:01.000 don't see their odds getting longer from where they are now. 0:12:01.040 --> 0:12:03.600 There's really no reason for that unless they don't make 0:12:03.600 --> 0:12:06.720 a move at quarterback and somehow per set sustains you know, 0:12:06.760 --> 0:12:09.000 a tough injury, then they're really gat no shot there. 0:12:09.040 --> 0:12:12.880 But at this point, frankly, given you know where they 0:12:12.880 --> 0:12:15.360 are a strong team, if they get a quarterback, the 0:12:15.360 --> 0:12:17.440 odds are going to get you know, much shorter. So 0:12:17.720 --> 0:12:19.920 if you do like them, I think i'd make a move. Now, 0:12:20.400 --> 0:12:23.400 all right, I think we talked enough here about the AFC, 0:12:23.440 --> 0:12:25.560 So let's go on to the NFC, which you described 0:12:25.600 --> 0:12:27.439 as much more interesting. So that'll be good, so he 0:12:27.480 --> 0:12:30.200 can lead us there. Forty nine ers, not surprisingly off 0:12:30.200 --> 0:12:33.400 their Super Bowl appearance are the Favorites at plus five hundred, 0:12:33.520 --> 0:12:36.959 Saints at plus six hundred, Eagles at plus eight hundred, 0:12:37.360 --> 0:12:41.400 Packers at plus eight fifty, the Seahawks, Vikings and Cowboys 0:12:41.480 --> 0:12:44.480 all at plus nine fifty, the Rams at plus one 0:12:44.480 --> 0:12:47.480 thousand and fifty, Falcons of Bears at plus sixteen hundred, 0:12:47.760 --> 0:12:51.320 the Bucks at plus twenty two hundred, the Panthers, Giants, Lions, 0:12:51.360 --> 0:12:54.000 Cardinals all at plus three thousand. Bringing up the rear 0:12:54.040 --> 0:12:57.079 are the Redskins at plus forty five hundred. So unlike 0:12:57.120 --> 0:12:59.640 the AFC kind of how you alluded to, you've got 0:12:59.679 --> 0:13:02.080 a lot lot of teams here, whose odds are not 0:13:02.480 --> 0:13:05.240 that long necessarily to win. So what do you think 0:13:05.280 --> 0:13:07.000 what's sticking out to you in terms of value here? 0:13:09.000 --> 0:13:11.960 I might sound bias here. Actually I'm probably definitely gonna 0:13:11.960 --> 0:13:14.520 sound bias. So maybe you can talk some actual logic 0:13:14.880 --> 0:13:17.199 endo me here, because I do this every single offseason 0:13:17.200 --> 0:13:20.920 with my Atlanta Falcons. But they after the bye week 0:13:20.960 --> 0:13:24.000 this past season. Don't forget, they ended the season very strong. 0:13:24.040 --> 0:13:25.840 I think there are six and two after the bye week, 0:13:25.880 --> 0:13:28.760 including a win over the Super Bowl San. 0:13:28.600 --> 0:13:31.120 Francisco forty nine ers. They beat them there late in 0:13:31.200 --> 0:13:31.680 the season. 0:13:31.800 --> 0:13:34.439 So sixteen to one, I mean, I wasn't a huge 0:13:34.440 --> 0:13:36.720 fan of them bringing dan Quinn back to completely, to 0:13:36.760 --> 0:13:38.760 be completely honest, that does worry me a little bit. 0:13:39.360 --> 0:13:42.560 But I mean Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, I mean, 0:13:42.760 --> 0:13:45.320 they've got a young secondary. They need to add a 0:13:45.360 --> 0:13:48.040 pass rusher for sure, in the draft or in free 0:13:48.040 --> 0:13:50.800 agency or a trade or something. They definitely need a 0:13:50.800 --> 0:13:55.880 pass rusher. But sixteen to one, I mean, like I said, 0:13:55.880 --> 0:13:58.079 they had a great end of the season. So maybe 0:13:58.080 --> 0:14:00.600 this is me being a huge Falcons fan. My bias 0:14:00.679 --> 0:14:03.240 might be showing. So I'm interested to hear your thoughts, 0:14:03.240 --> 0:14:04.920 but that would be the number that sticks out to 0:14:04.920 --> 0:14:06.160 me the most out all these teams. 0:14:06.360 --> 0:14:08.480 Okay, first of all, let me ask you, how are 0:14:08.480 --> 0:14:10.360 you a Falcons fan? Because I can hear in your 0:14:10.440 --> 0:14:12.360 voice you must be from Canada. 0:14:12.080 --> 0:14:14.040 Right, Yeah, so I'm Canadian. 0:14:14.080 --> 0:14:16.520 So so we don't really have any kind of allegiance 0:14:16.520 --> 0:14:18.240 because we don't have any teams. So, if I'm being 0:14:18.280 --> 0:14:22.360 one hundred percent completely honest, when I first started watching football, 0:14:22.400 --> 0:14:24.000 the way I got into it was I bought like 0:14:24.160 --> 0:14:27.080 Madden two thousand and five or something, and it was 0:14:27.120 --> 0:14:29.320 the first year of Superstar Mode, and I created a 0:14:29.320 --> 0:14:30.880 player and I was like, well, I have no allegiance 0:14:30.880 --> 0:14:33.520 to any team. Whatever team my player gets drafted to, 0:14:33.680 --> 0:14:35.120 that's gonna be my favorite team for the rest of 0:14:35.160 --> 0:14:37.880 my life. And the player got drafted by the Atlanta Falcons. 0:14:38.160 --> 0:14:40.200 So I have been in a Falcons fan ever since. 0:14:40.240 --> 0:14:41.920 I mean, I needed some reason to pick a team, 0:14:42.000 --> 0:14:43.640 so I figured that was as good of a reason 0:14:43.680 --> 0:14:44.040 as ever. 0:14:44.280 --> 0:14:46.560 That's an outstanding story, and I love it. And you've 0:14:46.600 --> 0:14:49.440 stuck with them no matter what. Obviously they've they you know, 0:14:49.520 --> 0:14:51.520 they haven't always been winners, so it's been good to 0:14:51.520 --> 0:14:54.720 stick with them. Look, I you maybe you'll be disappointed 0:14:54.720 --> 0:14:56.440 by this, maybe you'll be happy, but I'm not going 0:14:56.480 --> 0:14:57.840 to talk you out of it. I had a couple 0:14:57.920 --> 0:14:59.800 of teams on my list that I kind of looked 0:14:59.840 --> 0:15:01.680 at as being like, you know, it's not that I 0:15:01.760 --> 0:15:03.720 necessarily am going to go in thinking like, yeah, I 0:15:03.760 --> 0:15:06.200 really think this team is going to win the NFC 0:15:06.240 --> 0:15:08.040 next year, but it's certainly something where I looked at 0:15:08.040 --> 0:15:10.520 the odds and I thought that had value. Absolutely. The 0:15:10.560 --> 0:15:12.280 Falcons were one of the teams on the list. They 0:15:12.320 --> 0:15:14.720 played so well down the stretch. Again, I was one of, 0:15:14.960 --> 0:15:17.160 you know, the many people calling for dan Quinn to 0:15:17.200 --> 0:15:18.920 be fired in the middle of the season because the 0:15:18.960 --> 0:15:21.160 team looked dead in the water. They stuck with him. 0:15:21.360 --> 0:15:24.240 They didn't fire him. The team played very, very well 0:15:24.240 --> 0:15:27.320 down the stretch. As you mentioned the defense, it's always injured, right, 0:15:27.360 --> 0:15:29.160 I mean, they need help on defense generally, But if 0:15:29.200 --> 0:15:32.480 they can just stay healthy one year and come together 0:15:32.600 --> 0:15:36.120 with the receivers with Hooper emerging, yeah, I completely like it. 0:15:36.160 --> 0:15:38.800 I definitely that was one of my picks. So plus 0:15:38.840 --> 0:15:41.040 sixteen hundred, I think that's one that we both, like 0:15:41.400 --> 0:15:43.480 anybody else here that you're finding value because I have 0:15:43.520 --> 0:15:45.040 a couple of names that I'll throw out there which 0:15:45.040 --> 0:15:47.960 are more long shots. But you know, I'm wondering whether 0:15:48.000 --> 0:15:49.440 or not you have any other teams that you like 0:15:49.520 --> 0:15:52.040 value other than the Falcons, which I agree is one 0:15:52.080 --> 0:15:52.680 of my favorites. 0:15:53.160 --> 0:15:55.120 Yeah, the other team that sticking out to me is 0:15:55.320 --> 0:15:58.440 probably the Rams plus a little over plus one thousand there. 0:15:58.480 --> 0:16:00.400 I mean the Rams there were they were in a 0:16:00.400 --> 0:16:02.200 Super Bowl two years ago. I mean, I don't know 0:16:02.200 --> 0:16:04.200 if Jared Goff is the answer. He did not have 0:16:04.240 --> 0:16:06.080 a great year, but the Rams lost a lot of 0:16:06.120 --> 0:16:08.520 close games this season. They were pretty competitive in just 0:16:08.560 --> 0:16:09.960 about every single game that they played. 0:16:10.000 --> 0:16:11.640 And I mean that is a. 0:16:11.680 --> 0:16:14.560 Very tough division obviously that they're in with the Seahawks 0:16:14.680 --> 0:16:17.280 and the forty nine ers and the Young Cardinals as well, 0:16:17.320 --> 0:16:20.000 so that, I mean, that's arguably the best division in football. 0:16:20.000 --> 0:16:21.640 So it's going to be hard to win that division. 0:16:22.600 --> 0:16:24.760 But as far as the odds go, I mean, I 0:16:24.760 --> 0:16:26.440 think the Rams hold a little bit of value too. 0:16:26.760 --> 0:16:28.360 Yeah, I could see that. My big thing with them 0:16:28.400 --> 0:16:31.600 is they just they're so hamstrung by the cap, right, 0:16:31.680 --> 0:16:33.680 I mean, you know, golf steal it's going to be 0:16:33.720 --> 0:16:35.800 so hard for them to really kind of, you know, 0:16:35.840 --> 0:16:38.320 boost up the offensive line, which they definitely need to do, 0:16:38.400 --> 0:16:42.080 because that's really the difference in how GoF plays when 0:16:42.080 --> 0:16:44.920 he is protected versus not is really striking. I kind 0:16:44.920 --> 0:16:47.040 of like the Seahawks a little more, which is around 0:16:47.080 --> 0:16:49.000 the same adds at plus nine to fifty there, just 0:16:49.040 --> 0:16:51.840 because I do think it's talk right now. But that's 0:16:51.840 --> 0:16:54.560