Speaker 1: Hey there everyone, Welcome back to a very special edition
Speaker 1: of the Betting Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris.
Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris AD.
Speaker 1: In case you missed it, the Super Bowl is over.
Speaker 1: The twenty nineteen season is officially closed, which means it
Speaker 1: is time to take an early look at the futures
Speaker 1: for the twenty twenty season. Now, look, the twenty twenty
Speaker 1: season is a long way from now. We just got
Speaker 1: past the biggest gambling event of the year. So you know,
Speaker 1: when you try to move on from something like you
Speaker 1: want to cut down on coffee and you don't go
Speaker 1: from three cups a day to zero, you wean yourself off, right,
Speaker 1: So super Bowl's over. Rather than doing nothing for months,
Speaker 1: you can wean yourself off the gambling high that you
Speaker 1: got when the under on Patrick Mahomes rushing yards hit.
Speaker 1: There's a giant event on Sunday one that a ton
Speaker 1: of people in America will be watching and you can
Speaker 1: wager on it. It's called the Oscars. So first we're
Speaker 1: going to take a look at some future for the
Speaker 1: twenty twenty NFL season with Ian McMillan, a writer over
Speaker 1: at Odds shark dot Com. And then we're going to
Speaker 1: bring in a special guest and noted oscar expert Kerry Kerpin,
Speaker 1: the CEO of Likable Media, to break down some of
Speaker 1: the odds on the major Academy awards. Let's get started
Speaker 1: here with Ian, who you can find over on Twitter
Speaker 1: at Ian macOS. That's I, Ai, n Ian. Did you
Speaker 1: have the over or the under on Patrick Mahomes rushing
Speaker 1: yards in the Super Bowl, Because it seems like everyone
Speaker 1: in America had a piece of that bet.
Speaker 2: No, I did not take that.
Speaker 3: One of my coworkers, though, Joe Osborn, a odd shark,
Speaker 3: had the over on it, so he was pretty heart
Speaker 3: broken with how that prop ended.
Speaker 1: I'll be honest, I had the under, and I just
Speaker 1: I had thrown it out. I think it was at
Speaker 1: forty three in the over under. I think I had
Speaker 1: it at thirty and a half or something. That's not
Speaker 1: a bet that happens. That is the worst beat I've
Speaker 1: ever seen in any capacity for any bet. If you
Speaker 1: had the over on it, I will say that I
Speaker 1: read that points bet to their credit. I think basically
Speaker 1: refunded the money for over under, so that's good. I
Speaker 1: don't know if for the people who took the overs.
Speaker 1: I don't know if everybody else did that, but it's
Speaker 1: really the worst beat of all time for any sports.
Speaker 1: I've never seen anything like that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's terror.
Speaker 3: He didn't even take normal knees like he took extra
Speaker 3: yards that if he just took normal like the one
Speaker 3: or two yard kneel downs, then course of.
Speaker 1: Course he had a seven yard kneel down. I've never
Speaker 1: seen that before, and I get it running to kill
Speaker 1: some time off the clock. But still, man, as someone
Speaker 1: who had bet the under, I was not disappointed, but
Speaker 1: still I certainly felt bad for the large majority of
Speaker 1: people who had the over, because again, that was that
Speaker 1: was not only a very highly bet prop, but it
Speaker 1: was also something where the vast majority of money came
Speaker 1: in on the over. So that's a tough beat. But again,
Speaker 1: we move on. So let's talk about ways to make
Speaker 1: up for it. Let's talk about some futures. At this point,
Speaker 1: there aren't any books as far as I can tell,
Speaker 1: with divisional winners, so let's just break down the conference
Speaker 1: and Super Bowl futures. All right, let's start with the
Speaker 1: AFC winner. I'm just gonna list out the consensus odds
Speaker 1: for you and our listeners, and then you can talk
Speaker 1: about your favorites. Okay, Now, not surprisingly, the Chiefs, the
Speaker 1: Super Bowl winners, are the favorites next year to win
Speaker 1: the AFC. It's not a big price, it's merely plus
Speaker 1: three hundred. Then you've got the Ravens close behind at
Speaker 1: plus four hundred, little bit of a drop to the
Speaker 1: Patriots at plus seven hundred, a little bit of another
Speaker 1: drop to the Titans and the Steelers at plus ten
Speaker 1: to fifty, and then you're really going downhill. The Browns
Speaker 1: and Texans at plus fifteen hundred, the Bills at plus
Speaker 1: sixteen hundred, the Colts at plus eighteen hundred, the Chargers,
Speaker 1: the Raiders and the Broncos at plus twenty two hundred,
Speaker 1: the Jets at plus three thousand, the Jaguars at plus
Speaker 1: thirty five hundred, followed by the poor little Bengals and
Speaker 1: Dolphins at plus forty five hundred. So what do you think?
Speaker 1: Do we push all our chips in on the Raiders
Speaker 1: at plus twenty two hundred, hope that Tom Brady lands
Speaker 1: there or what's the play here?
Speaker 2: No? I don't think so.
Speaker 3: I mean, I think the NFC is going to be
Speaker 3: a lot more of an interesting conversation because I think
Speaker 3: the AFC is just so top heavy. I mean, obviously
Speaker 3: a million different things can happen between now and Week
Speaker 3: one of the twenty twenty season with the draft, free.
Speaker 2: Agency, who knows what kind of trades might get done.
Speaker 3: But I mean I think it's it's got to be
Speaker 3: the Chief so that that are going to dominate the
Speaker 3: AFC again. Even the Chiefs regular season, I thought they
Speaker 3: didn't have a great regular season. I think they're probably
Speaker 3: gonna have a better regular season next year. The Ravens
Speaker 3: at plus four hundred, I don't really like them because
Speaker 3: I mean, they were kind of a team that just
Speaker 3: exploded over nowhere. They're obviously the best regular season team,
Speaker 3: but I'm not confident enough that they're gonna be able
Speaker 3: to repeat that amazing performance they had this year. So
Speaker 3: as boring and as square of a bet it might be,
Speaker 3: I think really the only bet to make in this
Speaker 3: situation would be the chief at plus three hundred. I mean,
Speaker 3: the only other name that I would even interest me
Speaker 3: a little bit would maybe be the Bills at plus
Speaker 3: sixteen hundred if they can get a couple extra pieces.
Speaker 2: And Josh Allen has a good season next year.
Speaker 3: But I don't really see anyone else given to the
Speaker 3: Chiefs a run for the money unless we see the
Speaker 3: Ravens have another great year like they did last year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Bills stuck out to me just because the price,
Speaker 1: you know, plus sixteen hundred, those are fairly good odds.
Speaker 1: You saw Josh Allen take another step in his second year.
Speaker 1: The play calling was really creative. If they can add
Speaker 1: a few more offensive skill players with that defense, they
Speaker 1: could be a scared team. But you know, don't you
Speaker 1: think a lot? First of all, are you just assuming
Speaker 1: that Tom Brady returns to the Patriots? By the way,
Speaker 1: is that how you're analyzing everything?
Speaker 3: Yes, I am, because there's even there's even a book
Speaker 3: that's offering odds on whether or not Tom Brady's going
Speaker 3: back to the Patriots. I think he's like minus two
Speaker 3: hundred to go back to the Patriots.
Speaker 1: So yeah, most.
Speaker 3: Likely, especially with that Super Bowl that weird Super Bowl
Speaker 3: commercial announcement that he kind of have made. So I
Speaker 3: think he's going to be back on the Patriots.
Speaker 1: Yeh, Yeah, I despise that, you know, the the early
Speaker 1: Instagram post, you know, to make everybody think about it.
Speaker 1: But again, Jets fan living in New England, I won't
Speaker 1: harp on it, so it's tough. Well, let me ad something.
Speaker 1: If he is coming back, why not the Pats at
Speaker 1: plus seven hundred, I mean they had nothing this year whatsoever.
Speaker 1: Their receiving corps was decimated. You have to assume if
Speaker 1: he's going to come back there, he's going to do
Speaker 1: it based on the guarantee that they're going to give
Speaker 1: him a lot more help on offense. So what about them?
Speaker 1: Any value on them at plus seven hundred? Then if
Speaker 1: Brady is coming back, I.
Speaker 3: Mean, if you think that the Patriots are going to
Speaker 3: get weapons this offseason, then getting them at plus seven
Speaker 3: hundred wouldn't be a bad bet now, because if they
Speaker 3: do get weapons, their odds will probably, you know, go up.
Speaker 3: One of the big names that I've kind of seen
Speaker 3: around a little bit is Greg Olsen. He's knock gonna
Speaker 3: be with the Panthers anymore. So, I mean they could
Speaker 3: use a tight end. There's one weapon right there that
Speaker 3: would seem like a pretty easy fit into the Patriots scheme.
Speaker 2: So I mean, yeah, if if you want.
Speaker 3: I mean, I absolutely despise the Patriots, so I would
Speaker 3: never bet on them to win, to win the Super Bowl,
Speaker 3: or to win the AFC.
Speaker 2: But plus seven hundred.
Speaker 3: If they do get the weapons, then now would probably
Speaker 3: be a good time to bet on them. But I
Speaker 3: mean that's a big if if they are going to
Speaker 3: get the weapons that tom Brady's asking for, and then
Speaker 3: even if he does, we saw tom Brady take a
Speaker 3: little bit of a step back this year. Was that
Speaker 3: an anomaly because he didn't have the weapons or was
Speaker 3: he showing his age a little bit? So's there's some
Speaker 3: question marks with the Patriots that would make me hesitant
Speaker 3: to bet on them.
Speaker 2: At this point in time.
Speaker 1: Well, well, let me tell you something that I think
Speaker 1: you're doing life completely wrong. Okay, because I too, as
Speaker 1: I talk about, often despise the Patriots. Just again, Jets
Speaker 1: fan living in New England married into a Patriots fan.
Speaker 1: It has been my nightmare for several years. So I
Speaker 1: always throw a little bit of money on them to
Speaker 1: both win the AFC and the Super Bowl, just because
Speaker 1: I'm like, if I'm going to be miserable, at least
Speaker 1: I need to profit off it a little bit. So
Speaker 1: the fact that you hate them really shouldn't impact that.
Speaker 1: The second point that I'll make with them. Is that
Speaker 1: to me? I really think at this point that Brady
Speaker 1: he does have leverage at this point, and I think
Speaker 1: it's very much gonna be I am not returning unless
Speaker 1: you give me the weapons, and I think they will
Speaker 1: give him the weapons. So I think if you're assuming
Speaker 1: Brady returns, I really do think it's based on the
Speaker 1: promise that they're going to give him somebody to come
Speaker 1: back to. Let me throw a couple of other names
Speaker 1: out here, okay, and let me just see what you
Speaker 1: think of these. Yep, what about the Browns. I know
Speaker 1: this was a disaster. Of course, this whole year basically
Speaker 1: was blue up in smoke. But you know they're at
Speaker 1: plus fifteen hundred. Stefanski comes in. He's gonna help that offense. Obviously,
Speaker 1: it couldn't get any worse than it was. They'll have
Speaker 1: a healthy old El Beckham junior, who you know, you
Speaker 1: assume he's gonna stay. They've got a top ten pick,
Speaker 1: They've got a boatload of cap space. I mean, everybody
Speaker 1: was pretty excited about them coming into the air. I
Speaker 1: think they're over under on wins. Might have been nine
Speaker 1: and a half. Obviously a disaster, but they do have
Speaker 1: a lot of talented pieces with the new coaching staff,
Speaker 1: with Beckham healthy, any chance you think that you can
Speaker 1: find some value on the Browns at plus fifteen.
Speaker 2: Hundred, I mean, I don't think so.
Speaker 3: I think I would have to see the Browns play
Speaker 3: next season before I put any kind of bet on them.
Speaker 3: It really does come down to how good of a
Speaker 3: coaching job the new guy will do. I don't think
Speaker 3: that that was a great hire by them. I think
Speaker 3: so Law would have been a much better choice, but
Speaker 3: they wanted to get this guy right after that divisional
Speaker 3: round game, So I think it really does come down
Speaker 3: to him. And with the guys that they have on
Speaker 3: the Browns team, it's hard to coach them because if
Speaker 3: things start falling apart.
Speaker 2: We saw this this past season.
Speaker 3: If things start falling apart a little tiny bit, they
Speaker 3: just they implode. And so because of that reason, I
Speaker 3: can't trust the Browns at all. If they get off
Speaker 3: to a good start and you see a little bit
Speaker 3: of momentum and like as if they were playing like
Speaker 3: a team, then maybe it's a team you want to
Speaker 3: take a shot on after the first couple of weeks.
Speaker 3: But I need to see something from them before I
Speaker 3: could place any kind of futures bet from them.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I think the one thing that really does not change
Speaker 1: from this past year is that they have a group
Speaker 1: of personalities where things go south, it's gonna go south.
Speaker 1: And I believe it was Adam Burke who was on
Speaker 1: and he's a Browns fan. We talked about it in
Speaker 1: the preseason last year about how he was not on them.
Speaker 1: You know, they were the most bad team I believe
Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl, them and the Bears, and
Speaker 1: he was not on them just because you could see
Speaker 1: them getting off to a rough start and then things
Speaker 1: going completely south and it unfolded exactly that way. So
Speaker 1: I get everything you're saying. I'm gonna be really interested
Speaker 1: to see how this offseason unfolds for them, because I
Speaker 1: admit that I'm a little optimistic just given how bad
Speaker 1: everything went last year, and Baker Mayfield's much better core
Speaker 1: and he showed and I do think he can bounce back.
Speaker 1: But let's talk about one other team here for the AFC,
Speaker 1: because they also caught my eye just a little bit
Speaker 1: given their odds, which is at plus eighteen hundred, and
Speaker 1: that's the Colts. You know. The one thing with the Colts.
Speaker 1: Is you know, they played pretty well early on last year,
Speaker 1: they eventually fell apart. T Y Hilton was dealing with
Speaker 1: an injury. Jacoby Brissett not the answer. He was able
Speaker 1: to fill in in what is pretty much an elite
Speaker 1: offensive system because he had been with them now at
Speaker 1: that point for long enough. He was preparing for it,
Speaker 1: so he was ready to come in, and so they
Speaker 1: were able to get by. But you know, they've got
Speaker 1: nearly ninety million dollars in cap space. There are a
Speaker 1: bunch of quarterbacks kind of going around. Maybe Brady I
Speaker 1: know he's going to probably go back to the Patriots,
Speaker 1: but he's certainly out there. Even Philip Rivers, who I
Speaker 1: realized took a downturn there at the end and certainly
Speaker 1: did not play particularly well through the second half of
Speaker 1: the season. Maybe Jameis Winston. There's there are people out
Speaker 1: there who they might be able to add, who could
Speaker 1: be more competent than Brissett. And they have, again the
Speaker 1: elite system. Overall, they're a very talented team, a great
Speaker 1: offensive line. So do you think that there's any chance
Speaker 1: that they could provide some value at plus eighteen hundred?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: Sure, I don't hate the value there on the Colts.
Speaker 3: The Colts are second on the odds list of land
Speaker 3: Philip Rivers. I think that would be very interesting, especially
Speaker 3: with the receiving corp that the Colts have with t
Speaker 3: Y Hilton Paris Campbell, the Colts rookie receiver this past season.
Speaker 3: He was hurt almost the whole year two. I think
Speaker 3: a lot of people are forgetting about him. He's a
Speaker 3: very talented player. I'd be excited to see how he
Speaker 3: does last or next year once he's healthy. So yeah,
Speaker 3: plus eighteen hundred with kind of I mean, there's no
Speaker 3: real number three, number four team in the AFC that
Speaker 3: could be the Colts that could slide into that spot
Speaker 3: next year if they get a couple of pieces in
Speaker 3: the offseason, So sure, plus eighteen hundred.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I don't hate those odds at all.
Speaker 1: And I think the one thing I'll say about that
Speaker 1: is if you like it like I do, and ETON
Speaker 1: sort of does, this would probably be the time to
Speaker 1: bet it, because if they get an upgraded quarterback, I
Speaker 1: don't see their odds getting longer from where they are now.
Speaker 1: There's really no reason for that unless they don't make
Speaker 1: a move at quarterback and somehow per set sustains you know,
Speaker 1: a tough injury, then they're really gat no shot there.
Speaker 1: But at this point, frankly, given you know where they
Speaker 1: are a strong team, if they get a quarterback, the
Speaker 1: odds are going to get you know, much shorter. So
Speaker 1: if you do like them, I think i'd make a move. Now,
Speaker 1: all right, I think we talked enough here about the AFC,
Speaker 1: So let's go on to the NFC, which you described
Speaker 1: as much more interesting. So that'll be good, so he
Speaker 1: can lead us there. Forty nine ers, not surprisingly off
Speaker 1: their Super Bowl appearance are the Favorites at plus five hundred,
Speaker 1: Saints at plus six hundred, Eagles at plus eight hundred,
Speaker 1: Packers at plus eight fifty, the Seahawks, Vikings and Cowboys
Speaker 1: all at plus nine fifty, the Rams at plus one
Speaker 1: thousand and fifty, Falcons of Bears at plus sixteen hundred,
Speaker 1: the Bucks at plus twenty two hundred, the Panthers, Giants, Lions,
Speaker 1: Cardinals all at plus three thousand. Bringing up the rear
Speaker 1: are the Redskins at plus forty five hundred. So unlike
Speaker 1: the AFC kind of how you alluded to, you've got
Speaker 1: a lot lot of teams here, whose odds are not
Speaker 1: that long necessarily to win. So what do you think
Speaker 1: what's sticking out to you in terms of value here?
Speaker 3: I might sound bias here. Actually I'm probably definitely gonna
Speaker 3: sound bias. So maybe you can talk some actual logic
Speaker 3: endo me here, because I do this every single offseason
Speaker 3: with my Atlanta Falcons. But they after the bye week
Speaker 3: this past season. Don't forget, they ended the season very strong.
Speaker 3: I think there are six and two after the bye week,
Speaker 3: including a win over the Super Bowl San.
Speaker 2: Francisco forty nine ers. They beat them there late in
Speaker 2: the season.
Speaker 3: So sixteen to one, I mean, I wasn't a huge
Speaker 3: fan of them bringing dan Quinn back to completely, to
Speaker 3: be completely honest, that does worry me a little bit.
Speaker 3: But I mean Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, I mean,
Speaker 3: they've got a young secondary. They need to add a
Speaker 3: pass rusher for sure, in the draft or in free
Speaker 3: agency or a trade or something. They definitely need a
Speaker 3: pass rusher. But sixteen to one, I mean, like I said,
Speaker 3: they had a great end of the season. So maybe
Speaker 3: this is me being a huge Falcons fan. My bias
Speaker 3: might be showing. So I'm interested to hear your thoughts,
Speaker 3: but that would be the number that sticks out to
Speaker 3: me the most out all these teams.
Speaker 1: Okay, first of all, let me ask you, how are
Speaker 1: you a Falcons fan? Because I can hear in your
Speaker 1: voice you must be from Canada.
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, so I'm Canadian.
Speaker 3: So so we don't really have any kind of allegiance
Speaker 3: because we don't have any teams. So, if I'm being
Speaker 3: one hundred percent completely honest, when I first started watching football,
Speaker 3: the way I got into it was I bought like
Speaker 3: Madden two thousand and five or something, and it was
Speaker 3: the first year of Superstar Mode, and I created a
Speaker 3: player and I was like, well, I have no allegiance
Speaker 3: to any team. Whatever team my player gets drafted to,
Speaker 3: that's gonna be my favorite team for the rest of
Speaker 3: my life. And the player got drafted by the Atlanta Falcons.
Speaker 3: So I have been in a Falcons fan ever since.
Speaker 3: I mean, I needed some reason to pick a team,
Speaker 3: so I figured that was as good of a reason
Speaker 3: as ever.
Speaker 1: That's an outstanding story, and I love it. And you've
Speaker 1: stuck with them no matter what. Obviously they've they you know,
Speaker 1: they haven't always been winners, so it's been good to
Speaker 1: stick with them. Look, I you maybe you'll be disappointed
Speaker 1: by this, maybe you'll be happy, but I'm not going
Speaker 1: to talk you out of it. I had a couple
Speaker 1: of teams on my list that I kind of looked
Speaker 1: at as being like, you know, it's not that I
Speaker 1: necessarily am going to go in thinking like, yeah, I
Speaker 1: really think this team is going to win the NFC
Speaker 1: next year, but it's certainly something where I looked at
Speaker 1: the odds and I thought that had value. Absolutely. The
Speaker 1: Falcons were one of the teams on the list. They
Speaker 1: played so well down the stretch. Again, I was one of,
Speaker 1: you know, the many people calling for dan Quinn to
Speaker 1: be fired in the middle of the season because the
Speaker 1: team looked dead in the water. They stuck with him.
Speaker 1: They didn't fire him. The team played very, very well
Speaker 1: down the stretch. As you mentioned the defense, it's always injured, right,
Speaker 1: I mean, they need help on defense generally, But if
Speaker 1: they can just stay healthy one year and come together
Speaker 1: with the receivers with Hooper emerging, yeah, I completely like it.
Speaker 1: I definitely that was one of my picks. So plus
Speaker 1: sixteen hundred, I think that's one that we both, like
Speaker 1: anybody else here that you're finding value because I have
Speaker 1: a couple of names that I'll throw out there which
Speaker 1: are more long shots. But you know, I'm wondering whether
Speaker 1: or not you have any other teams that you like
Speaker 1: value other than the Falcons, which I agree is one
Speaker 1: of my favorites.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the other team that sticking out to me is
Speaker 3: probably the Rams plus a little over plus one thousand there.
Speaker 3: I mean the Rams there were they were in a
Speaker 3: Super Bowl two years ago. I mean, I don't know
Speaker 3: if Jared Goff is the answer. He did not have
Speaker 3: a great year, but the Rams lost a lot of
Speaker 3: close games this season. They were pretty competitive in just
Speaker 3: about every single game that they played.
Speaker 2: And I mean that is a.
Speaker 3: Very tough division obviously that they're in with the Seahawks
Speaker 3: and the forty nine ers and the Young Cardinals as well,
Speaker 3: so that, I mean, that's arguably the best division in football.
Speaker 2: So it's going to be hard to win that division.
Speaker 3: But as far as the odds go, I mean, I
Speaker 3: think the Rams hold a little bit of value too.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I could see that. My big thing with them
Speaker 1: is they just they're so hamstrung by the cap, right,
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, golf steal it's going to be
Speaker 1: so hard for them to really kind of, you know,
Speaker 1: boost up the offensive line, which they definitely need to do,
Speaker 1: because that's really the difference in how GoF plays when
Speaker 1: he is protected versus not is really striking. I kind
Speaker 1: of like the Seahawks a little more, which is around
Speaker 1: the same adds at plus nine to fifty there, just
Speaker 1: because I do think it's talk right now. But that's
Speaker 1: all we have is talk is Russell Wilson basically being like,
Speaker 1: you have to open up this offense. You need to
Speaker 1: for sure, because it was the same thing every single game.
Speaker 1: They run, run, run, Brian Schottenheimer wants to run NonStop,
Speaker 1: and then if they fell behind or if Wilson was
Speaker 1: able to just basically have the reins taken off, then
Speaker 1: he did some great things. So I think if they're
Speaker 1: able to, you know, add a few pieces, if they
Speaker 1: can hold on to Clowney, if they can add a
Speaker 1: few pieces, if they changed their offensive philosophy their team,
Speaker 1: that could certainly, in my mind, have some value at
Speaker 1: plus nine to fifty. But I actually want to talk
Speaker 1: about two real long shots, one of which you're just
Speaker 1: gonna dismiss out right. I'm wondering about the other one.
Speaker 1: The other one is the Bucks. You've obviously got this
Speaker 1: quarterback situation that's unclear. It might be James Winston, it
Speaker 1: might be Philip Rivers. He packed up his whole team
Speaker 1: and moved him down to Florida. You know, the offensive
Speaker 1: system worked, that wasn't the issue. The issue on offense
Speaker 1: was the fact that Jamis Winston turned the ball over
Speaker 1: eight thousand times and it was just difficult to overcome that.
Speaker 1: But the defense is really the thing here because quietly
Speaker 1: over the second half of the season, sort of like
Speaker 1: the Falcons, the defense, which was abysmal at the start
Speaker 1: the past defense really turn things around over the second
Speaker 1: half of the season. If they can build on that,
Speaker 1: and if they can kind of whoever is going to
Speaker 1: be a quarterback find a way to limit the turnovers.
Speaker 1: They still have the elite receivers. Ronald Jones, you know,
Speaker 1: kind of emerging. He looked better down the stretch. They
Speaker 1: are a team that I think could threaten. That's particularly
Speaker 1: the part of me. That's particularly the case if Drew
Speaker 1: Brees retires, which I think is really in play here.
Speaker 1: He may not, but if he does, you know, they're
Speaker 1: in a tough division. Anyway, because you know, we've talked
Speaker 1: about the Falcons, of course, but the Buck struck me
Speaker 1: plus twenty two hundred, those are pretty long odds. With
Speaker 1: another year in AARAN system. They strike me as a
Speaker 1: team that could have some value there.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't hate that pick at all. Yeah.
Speaker 3: I mean, like like you said, it comes down to
Speaker 3: James Winston. I mean, if they keep Jameis Winston, if
Speaker 3: he's going to be their guy next year, I mean,
Speaker 3: if if you look at his numbers, you just take
Speaker 3: away the interceptions he was at an MVP caliber.
Speaker 1: Seas and the fumbles and the fumbles of course forget
Speaker 1: about that.
Speaker 3: Well, yes, but you take it so you take away
Speaker 3: his turnovers, like the rest of his numbers are almost
Speaker 3: MVP calibers. So I don't know, because this has kind
Speaker 3: of been the story of James Winston year after year
Speaker 3: since has been in the league as the turnover So
Speaker 3: I don't know if he can cut those out right,
Speaker 3: But if he does, I mean watch out for the
Speaker 3: Bucks shore twenty two to one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah again, And for me, it's really much more
Speaker 1: about the defense, you know, because again in the beginning
Speaker 1: of the season, they were terrible, and they really really
Speaker 1: pulled it together as a season went on. The other one,
Speaker 1: I kind of like, again, this one. I mean, it's
Speaker 1: it's it's one of the longest odds, But could be
Speaker 1: the Cardinals. You know, You've got obviously Larry Fitzgerald back,
Speaker 1: if all the receivers get a little bit healthy, You've
Speaker 1: got Kyler Murray maybe taking a second you know, maybe
Speaker 1: a giant leap in his second year. They've got a
Speaker 1: high pick in the draft. So if they can add
Speaker 1: to that defense, that's a team that I could see. Like,
Speaker 1: you know, you get everyone's wanting to get the teams.
Speaker 1: I mean the forty nine er, you get a team
Speaker 1: that kind of you're just like, oh, well, they're not
Speaker 1: very good, and then suddenly they come back the next
Speaker 1: year and you're like, whoa, where did this come from?
Speaker 1: I could see if the Cardinals have a bang up offseason,
Speaker 1: they could do that. If Murray again takes that giant
Speaker 1: leap in a second year. But that's a plus three.
Speaker 1: That's the only reason why I take that. So I
Speaker 1: assume that's one that even that those odds are probably
Speaker 1: like not, man, where we're far away from that?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I know, I'm staying away from that, I mean,
Speaker 3: this is probably not a very popular opinion, But I'm
Speaker 3: not a huge Kyler Murray believer. I'm not a huge
Speaker 3: fan of his. I wasn't when he when he was
Speaker 3: in college coming into the NFL. The big thing about
Speaker 3: quarterbacks who can run the ball is whether or not
Speaker 3: they use their feet to buy more time to find
Speaker 3: guys downfield, or if they use their feet to more
Speaker 3: look for a place to run with the ball. And
Speaker 3: I find when Kyler Murray he looks back and he
Speaker 3: sees his first read, and if his first read isn't open,
Speaker 3: it it's like he shifts his glance down to right
Speaker 3: in front of him to see if he can find
Speaker 3: a place to run with the ball instead of guys
Speaker 3: Like we saw Lamar Jackson. Yes he did run with
Speaker 3: the ball quite a bit, but he also used his
Speaker 3: feet to buy more time in the backfield. And that's
Speaker 3: what Patrick Mahomes is really good at with his athletic ability.
Speaker 3: So if Kyler Murray can kind of use his athleticism
Speaker 3: to more buy more time instead of finding a place
Speaker 3: to run, then I'd start to like Kyler Murray a
Speaker 3: little bit.
Speaker 2: But I wasn't.
Speaker 3: I wasn't a huge fan of him this year, but
Speaker 3: I mean, he was a rookie, so he obviously still
Speaker 3: has a lot to a lot of time to develop,
Speaker 3: a lot of time to get used to the system
Speaker 3: that Cliff Kingsbury offense. So yeah, I'm not ready to
Speaker 3: buy stock and the Cardinals to quite yet though.
Speaker 1: No, I think it's fair. Of course, Again, their odds
Speaker 1: are pretty long for me. Again, it's mostly about on
Speaker 1: predicated on Murray taking a giant leap into his next year.
Speaker 1: All right, let's turn to the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2: Here.
Speaker 1: We've got thirty two teams, so I'm not going to
Speaker 1: list all their odds because that will take forever. You
Speaker 1: can assume essentially that the odds are roughly double what
Speaker 1: they were for winning either the AFC or the NFC. So,
Speaker 1: for example, the Chiefs were the favorite for the AFC
Speaker 1: at plus three hundred there plus six hundred for the
Speaker 1: Super Bowl. The Niners were plus five hundred for the
Speaker 1: NFC there plus one thousand for the Super Bowl. The
Speaker 1: Redskins are plus ten thousand for the longest odds. I mean,
Speaker 1: you want specifics, we can talk about them, but you know,
Speaker 1: in essentially doubling the numbers, is there any value here
Speaker 1: or is it really just essentially what we talked about
Speaker 1: with the conference winners.
Speaker 3: I mean, obviously a lot of it is the stuff
Speaker 3: that we talked about in the Conference winners, But I
Speaker 3: mean I think the Chiefs to hold value plus six hundred.
Speaker 3: I expect them to have a great year next season,
Speaker 3: and if they do, I mean, their odds are only
Speaker 3: going to get shorter once the season goes on. So
Speaker 3: if you're going to bet on the Chiefs at all,
Speaker 3: I think now would be the time to do to
Speaker 3: win the Super Bowl. And I mean there's a good
Speaker 3: argument to be made that Patrick Mahomes is going to
Speaker 3: be one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
Speaker 2: He's the next generation, and.
Speaker 3: Maybe the Chiefs are starting to slowly get into a
Speaker 3: dynasty here. So if you want to bet on the
Speaker 3: Chiefs at all plus six hundred, I mean, I don't
Speaker 3: think that's a bad bet. The other team that we
Speaker 3: didn't talk about when talking about the NFC that I
Speaker 3: don't hate their Super Bowl odds.
Speaker 2: Here are the Eagles at seventeen to one to win
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl.
Speaker 3: They had I mean just injuries on injuries on injuries
Speaker 3: on injuries last year. This is already a team that
Speaker 3: won the Super Bowl a few years back. Of course,
Speaker 3: that was Nick Foles as quarterback. But I think Carson
Speaker 3: Wentz got a lot of flat this year that I
Speaker 3: don't think he deserved. I think the Eagles can get
Speaker 3: back there again this coming year if they can stay healthy.
Speaker 3: I like their coach. So the Eagles at seventeen to one,
Speaker 3: I think they're worth a look as well if you're
Speaker 3: looking at the NFC.
Speaker 1: Teams, actually think that's a great call. Yeah, And look,
Speaker 1: Wentz played incredibly well this year, I thought, I mean,
Speaker 1: he had nobody to throw the ball to at any time,
Speaker 1: so I think the way he really held it together
Speaker 1: is pretty great. The one thing I'll point out here is,
Speaker 1: you know, we talk about the consensus odds here, right,
Speaker 1: and that takes into account a large number of books.
Speaker 1: But if you look at the individual books, you're gonna
Speaker 1: find some discrepancies. Like the consensus odds on the Eagles
Speaker 1: are plus seventeen hundred, but at bet MGM they have
Speaker 1: them at plus fourteen hundred. At points Bet they have
Speaker 1: them at plus eighteen hundred. And that's actually one of
Speaker 1: the things that I would point out because the Packers
Speaker 1: at plus eighteen hundred are fine. I don't love them.
Speaker 1: I assume that they're going to add another wide receiver
Speaker 1: for Aaron Rodgers, because you have to obviously, and if
Speaker 1: they do, and if they can make another run, then
Speaker 1: every book that I'm looking at essentially has it at
Speaker 1: eighteen hundred. But on FanDuel it's plus twenty two hundred
Speaker 1: that I like a lot, because that to me, once
Speaker 1: you get to that level, I find you know, the
Speaker 1: difference between eighteen hundred and twenty two hundred is not
Speaker 1: insignificant whatsoever. So what I would do if I were
Speaker 1: you again, you can do it on bettingpros dot com.
Speaker 1: We have the consensus lines and then you see every
Speaker 1: odd basically available at the various books. Pick your best line.
Speaker 1: Make sure you can go out there because you might
Speaker 1: be able to take advantage of every once in a while,
Speaker 1: certain books have lines that you're like, oh, you know what,
Speaker 1: I'm lukewarm at it on the consensus line, but given
Speaker 1: that line for that particular book, I like it. But
Speaker 1: in terms of the Eagles, pick yeah, I do like it.
Speaker 1: The other one that I would like, the Packers, if
Speaker 1: you can get him at plus twenty two hundred over
Speaker 1: at Fandel, I would do that at plus eighteen hundred,
Speaker 1: I don't hate them either. For again, all of these
Speaker 1: are predicated on the team's taking a leap right. The Eagles,
Speaker 1: for example, they've got a I mean, I guess they
Speaker 1: could get by with just Deshaun Jackson, and you know him,
Speaker 1: if he's healthy, he opens up that offense a lot
Speaker 1: and just basically having a generally healthy year. But the Packers,
Speaker 1: if they add a wide receiver at this point, I
Speaker 1: think they could be legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Obviously, they
Speaker 1: made it to the championship game this year, so plus
Speaker 1: eighteen hundred they're okay for me. Plus twenty two hundred,
Speaker 1: I really like them.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I love the fact that you brought up
Speaker 2: look around for different books.
Speaker 3: I know a lot of people don't necessarily like using
Speaker 3: different books during the season because a lot of the
Speaker 3: time you can only get like half a point, maybe
Speaker 3: a full point difference on games. And as you're talking
Speaker 3: about that, I was looking. I went down to look
Speaker 3: at my Falcons odds. Most books have plus thirty three
Speaker 3: hundred plus thirty five hundred. But then FanDuel, again, I
Speaker 3: don't know if the packers and the Falcons are giving
Speaker 3: them a great a lot of value here Falcons plus
Speaker 3: thirty three hundred, most books FanDuel plus forty three hundred. Yeah,
Speaker 3: so that's a massive difference if we want to bet
Speaker 3: on the Falcons there to win the Super Bowl next year.
Speaker 3: So yeah, I love that point that you brought up.
Speaker 3: If you're going to place the future that you want
Speaker 3: to definitely look for the best value possible.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and again, I mean you look at it. FanDuel
Speaker 1: is really sort of the one that that's kind of
Speaker 1: the outlier with the consensus. I mean you look at
Speaker 1: the Bucks. The consensus odds are plus five thousand. That's
Speaker 1: what you'll see at DraftKings Sports book. That's what you'll
Speaker 1: see it a lot. On Fandel It's only plus thirty
Speaker 1: five hundred to win the Super Bowl. So this is
Speaker 1: really a time where the books are going to be
Speaker 1: as different as possible. Again, you're right you talk about that.
Speaker 1: I wish it weren't necessarily the case, but for the
Speaker 1: most part, the consensus line all of the books are
Speaker 1: really really close and the numbers. Now is a time
Speaker 1: where if you look around and again just go to
Speaker 1: bettingpros Dot com. We have all of them listed out
Speaker 1: right next to each other, so you can see you'll
Speaker 1: find a lot of differences in the various books. So
Speaker 1: that is the time to take advantage of it. All right, Ian,
Speaker 1: that is it for us. It has been great to
Speaker 1: talk a little bit of football for twenty twenty. Remind
Speaker 1: everybody where they can find more of you and your work.
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, Dan, Yeah, So the best place to find
Speaker 3: me is on Twitter. If anyone out there is on
Speaker 3: Twitter there my handle is Ian mac Osi a I
Speaker 3: n m acos. Now that the NFL season is over,
Speaker 3: I do a lot of college basketball and golf betting
Speaker 3: for the spring and then into the summer, So if
Speaker 3: you're into that, be sure to give me a follow
Speaker 3: on Twitter, and of course check us out at odd
Speaker 3: shark dot com.
Speaker 1: Awesome, Well, I look forward to talking again as always,
Speaker 1: and probably it'll be about a different sport. But until then,
Speaker 1: take it easy and let's go Falcons.
Speaker 2: That sounds good, Dan, take care all right.
Speaker 1: We're gonna switch gears here a bit and turn to
Speaker 1: the Academy Awards, which airs this Sunday night, February ninth.
Speaker 1: If you have ever listened to any of my other podcasts.
Speaker 1: Then you know that I'm a bit of a cinophile,
Speaker 1: so I'm pretty excited about the segment, both because of
Speaker 1: the topic and because of our guest, Carrie Kurpin, this
Speaker 1: CEO of Likable Media. You can find her on Twitter
Speaker 1: at Carrie Kurpein Now. I've known Carrie for years, and
Speaker 1: I've been eager to have her on ever since. We
Speaker 1: made a small wager about fifteen years ago on whether
Speaker 1: Crash or Broke Back Mountain would win Best Picture, and
Speaker 1: she won. So today I'm going to exact my revenge
Speaker 1: for that and the fact that she kicked me over
Speaker 1: a table during a fight about Nintendo when I was eleven. Yes,
Speaker 1: she is the CEO of a social media company. Yes
Speaker 1: she is an oscar betting expert, and yes she also
Speaker 1: happens to be my big sister. Carrie. Welcome to the show.
Speaker 4: How are you hey, Dan? Thrilled to be here. It's
Speaker 4: been a long time since I pushed you over that table.
Speaker 1: I know our parents still referenced it pretty much every
Speaker 1: day of our lives, and it's really kind of shaped
Speaker 1: the way I am as a human. So I mean
Speaker 1: it's true. Yeah, you should go. Yeah, he had a
Speaker 1: big impact on me. How about that, Carrie? This is
Speaker 1: actually our first non NFL segment ever on this podcast.
Speaker 1: It is a ton of pressure. Are you ready? I'm
Speaker 1: ready for the pressure.
Speaker 2: Man.
Speaker 4: I that was a big bet with Crash and I
Speaker 4: was quite happy to win. And I'm I'm gonna hold
Speaker 4: myself to those same high standards now.
Speaker 1: Well, you better because I've been waiting for this moment
Speaker 1: for a long time. Well, let us jump in here.
Speaker 1: We're gonna break down some of the odds on the
Speaker 1: quote unquote major awards. All right, that includes Best Picture,
Speaker 1: all the acting awards, Director, and both screenplay, original and
Speaker 1: adapt It does that work for you?
Speaker 4: Totally works.
Speaker 1: As with anything you can bet on, the odds vary
Speaker 1: depending on what book you go to. But we're going
Speaker 1: to be using DraftKings for our odds because DraftKings not
Speaker 1: only offers odds on every major sport, but also now
Speaker 1: on the Academy Awards, and they are currently offering an
Speaker 1: outstanding deal for new users. Place a five dollars wager
Speaker 1: on the winner of Best Picture, and if you win,
Speaker 1: you win fifty dollars regardless of the odds. That is it.
Speaker 1: And Carrie and I are gonna talk about the Best
Speaker 1: Picture category, so you're gonna have plenty of information. You
Speaker 1: can go to bettingpros dot com slash DraftKings for more details.
Speaker 1: But again, if you're a new DraftKings sportsbook user and
Speaker 1: your first wager is a five dollars bet on Best Picture,
Speaker 1: and you're right, you'll win fifty dollars. All right, carry
Speaker 1: let's get into it. So I think when you look
Speaker 1: at historical awards director, Screenplay, and Picture, there's sometimes some
Speaker 1: correlation because voters may like multiple movies, so they want
Speaker 1: to spread out the awards a little bit in those categories.
Speaker 1: So let's save those for last, because, as we'll talk about,
Speaker 1: there's a bit of drama around those awards. So Lesson said,
Speaker 1: start with the acting awards, and what's probably the one
Speaker 1: award where there is the least amount of drama, and
Speaker 1: that's Best Actor, where Walking Phoenix is an overwhelming favorite
Speaker 1: at minus five thousand. Adam Driver is next at plus
Speaker 1: one thousand, Leo DiCaprio at plus thirty three hundred, then
Speaker 1: Antonio banderis at plus five thousand, and Jonathan Price at
Speaker 1: plus sixty six hundred. This is the biggest favorite of
Speaker 1: the night, Joaquin Phoenix won both the Golden Globe and
Speaker 1: the SAG Award. Is there any chance that anyone other
Speaker 1: than Joaquin Phoenix is going to go home with this award?
Speaker 4: There's basically no chance, And the reason is that Hollywood
Speaker 4: and the Academy really love a body transformation. If you
Speaker 4: want to get super fat or super skinny for any award,
Speaker 4: you're basically upping your chances of winning by a lot.
Speaker 4: And this was a huge physical transformation, not to mention
Speaker 4: a breathtaking performance. This is pretty much a lock. Only
Speaker 4: a slight potential for Adam Driver because of how mesmerizing
Speaker 4: he was in marriage story, But really Joaquin.
Speaker 1: For the win. Yeah, I really Of all the awards,
Speaker 1: there are a couple here that we'll talk about that realistically,
Speaker 1: there's almost no chance that anybody else is gonna win
Speaker 1: except for the favorite. But this one I think is
Speaker 1: pretty much the lock of the night. And you mentioned
Speaker 1: it method acting also, that's what they love. Apparently he
Speaker 1: was basically the joker throughout filming this entire thing. That's
Speaker 1: gonna do it and the body transformation you talked about
Speaker 1: it Raging Bull with Robert de Niro, the gaining weight
Speaker 1: to losing weight Daniel de Lewis, the way he basically
Speaker 1: transforms into the character. These types of performances are absolute lock,
Speaker 1: and that is why the odds. He was an overwhelming
Speaker 1: favorite when the season started, but now it's basically a
Speaker 1: complete lock. And with how little money you're gonna be
Speaker 1: able to win, it's really not even worth betting on.
Speaker 1: And that makes a good point before we go on,
Speaker 1: because let's explain this to Mom, who's undoubtedly listening today. Mom, Hi, Mom,
Speaker 1: how are you? Tears in her eyes at how successful
Speaker 1: both their children are. When I say that Joaquin Phoenix
Speaker 1: is at minus five thousand, that means that you would
Speaker 1: have to risk five thousand dollars just to win one
Speaker 1: hundred dollars, or because Mom is not good with math,
Speaker 1: you'd have to risk fifty dollars to win one dollar,
Speaker 1: So that's an overwhelming favorite. When I say Jonathan Price
Speaker 1: is at plus sixty six hundred, that means he's essentially
Speaker 1: sixty six to one. If you risk one hundred dollars
Speaker 1: and he won, you'd win sixty six hundred dollars. So
Speaker 1: the chances are pretty minimal now, although Mom is undoubtedly
Speaker 1: still confused. I think everyone else probably gets it at
Speaker 1: this point. Let's stick with the male performances here and
Speaker 1: move on to supporting actor, where we also have an
Speaker 1: overwhelming but not quite as overwhelming a favorite in Brad Pitt,
Speaker 1: who's at minus four thousand, Joe Peshi's next at plus
Speaker 1: twelve hundred, Al Pacino at plus twenty eight hundred, Tom
Speaker 1: Hanks at plus thirty three hundred, and Anthony Hopkins at
Speaker 1: plus five thousand. So how do you feel here? Is
Speaker 1: Pitt guaranteed the winner? Or what he is not?
Speaker 4: He is not guaranteed. It is a strong favorite, but
Speaker 4: not a guarantee. Here's what will happen if, once upon
Speaker 4: a time in Hollywood takes it, which there is a possibility.
Speaker 1: That it does.
Speaker 4: Then I believe this could be spread out. It could
Speaker 4: be a shocker, and you could say, Okay, that's gonna
Speaker 4: win Best Picture, And you know what, we're gonna maybe
Speaker 4: even give this to Tom Hanks. You know why, because
Speaker 4: Joile quene One, he's not that nice or likable. He's
Speaker 4: seen as kind of this very troubled guy, and he
Speaker 4: won for this dark performance. Let's give it to Tom
Speaker 4: Hanks because everybody loves Tom Hanks, So that would be
Speaker 4: a reach. I'm not saying it will happen, but I'm
Speaker 4: saying that that's a philosophy that could if you were
Speaker 4: somebody who wanted to bet and take.
Speaker 1: A long shot. Interesting, well, Hank's. The one thing about Hank's, obviously,
Speaker 1: is that his role as mister Rogers is essentially a
Speaker 1: feel good role and the type of things that probably
Speaker 1: Academy voters like to embrace, considering especially the time that
Speaker 1: we're in where you know, everybody seems to be mad
Speaker 1: at everybody. So Hanks really in that sort of role
Speaker 1: would make an interesting choice. I think for me, though, man,
Speaker 1: you know, Pitt has won the Globe and the SAG.
Speaker 1: Now you mentioned a good point, and we're going to
Speaker 1: get into this little later. And one of the reasons
Speaker 1: why I wanted to do the Screenplay Awards, the Director Awards,
Speaker 1: and then Best Picture last is because to me, I
Speaker 1: feel like that is more where Academy voters like to
Speaker 1: spread things out, right, like, yeah, we're going to talk
Speaker 1: about this. You've got nineteen seventeen, You've got Parasite, and
Speaker 1: you've got Once upon a Time in Hollywood. Those three
Speaker 1: movies are really kind of you know, vying for the
Speaker 1: big prizes in it. And it's a fair point, but
Speaker 1: I think for me, and again, it's he's an overwhelming
Speaker 1: favorite for a reason, obviously, and one of these overwhelming
Speaker 1: favorites almost certainly is going to lose because that's just
Speaker 1: kind of the way it works, is that. I think
Speaker 1: if Pitt wins, I'm not sure whether or not it
Speaker 1: has an impact, but it would be interesting whether or
Speaker 1: not they would say, you know what, we're going to
Speaker 1: give these other awards necessarily to once upon a time
Speaker 1: in Hollywood, So why don't we give this to sort
Speaker 1: of the feel good guy? And you're right, everybody loves
Speaker 1: Tom Hanks. He's won two Academy Awards, although not in
Speaker 1: twenty five years of this, that's correct, which has.
Speaker 4: Been a long time.
Speaker 1: It's been a long time. Mister Rogers, right, who doesn't
Speaker 1: love mister Rodgers.
Speaker 4: Who doesn't love mister Rogers. But the thing about Brad Pitt, now,
Speaker 4: of course, I as a marketer, always think about the
Speaker 4: people behind the Academy who are producing the show, who
Speaker 4: want to make it as watchable as possible, And right
Speaker 4: now everyone is talking about Brad Pitt. Why because Jennifer
Speaker 4: Eniston has had a resurgence because they're both single, because
Speaker 4: he's sober, So for that reason alone, people want to
Speaker 4: see him get up there, don't you know. Never mind
Speaker 4: the fact that he did have a great performance in
Speaker 4: this film, but people want to see him get up
Speaker 4: there because they're looking for those pictures. And the shot
Speaker 4: of Jennifer's face as he walks up to accept.
Speaker 1: The award also fair. And again he did give great
Speaker 1: speeches it. I believe the SAG Awards, you know, and
Speaker 1: that actually carries a little bit of weight because they're like,
Speaker 1: all right, you know, Joe Peshy, I believe again, who's
Speaker 1: the second favorite in this at plus twelve hundred for
Speaker 1: the Irishman? When he won his award for good Fellas,
Speaker 1: I believe his Oscar speech was thanks and then he
Speaker 1: walked off. So I don't think, really you know that
Speaker 1: that sticks in Oscar voters mindset.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yes, and they don't. They don't reward people who
Speaker 4: hate the shows. Remember Sean Penn being totally silenced for
Speaker 4: such a long time because he just refused to attend.
Speaker 1: That's true, but he did eventually win, of course, I
Speaker 1: believe twice if memory service, But either way. Look, I
Speaker 1: think you know we agree Brad Pitt is the overwhelming favorite,
Speaker 1: but I like I like the thought that you know,
Speaker 1: Hanks is the type of guy who, in this climate
Speaker 1: in particular, is somebody who could sneak in there. And again,
Speaker 1: plus thirty three hundred doesn't take a particularly large bet
Speaker 1: to win you some money. Correct. Let's move on here
Speaker 1: to best Supporting Actress. Again, we have another very similar favorite,
Speaker 1: Laura Dern for Marriage Story at minus four thousand, Margot
Speaker 1: Robbie at plus twelve hundred, Florence Pugh at plus fourteen hundred,
Speaker 1: Scarlett Johansson double nominee here she's at plus twenty five hundred,
Speaker 1: and my secret crush Kathy Baits at plus five thousand.
Speaker 1: So again we haven't overwhelming. You knew that, right, I mean,
Speaker 1: mom knows like I secretly, I am in love with
Speaker 1: Kathy Baits. That's a story for another time. Laura Dern
Speaker 1: at minus four thousand, overwhelming favorite. She has won both
Speaker 1: the Golden Globe and the SAG. I loved her performance
Speaker 1: in Marriage Story. She sort of played that, you know
Speaker 1: that lawyer, and again I was a lawyer, so you
Speaker 1: know we have that where even I can embrace it
Speaker 1: and be like, man, you hated her, but you loved
Speaker 1: her at the same time. So what do you think here?
Speaker 1: Is Laura Drn? Is anybody else worth betting on? Or
Speaker 1: is this during? Yeah?
Speaker 2: This is a lock.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I agree with that. And again, Lord Dern,
Speaker 1: she's kind of beloved by the Academy. She hasn't won
Speaker 1: an oscar, but she's been nominated a few times. And
Speaker 1: you know what's funny is that originally Florence Pugh was
Speaker 1: very close in odds when you know they first opened up.
Speaker 1: But since then, Durren's got so much momentum. So this
Speaker 1: is just a lock. Take Dern, don't look it.
Speaker 2: It's a lock.
Speaker 4: I might throw fifty dollars on Kathy Bates though, just to.
Speaker 1: Support your crush. I like it, all right, I'm in
Speaker 1: with you. We'll double it up, We'll go all right,
Speaker 1: let's move on to Best Actress here. This is another
Speaker 1: one with a clear favorite. But I have certain opinions
Speaker 1: on this one, which we'll talk about. Reneesel Wigger again
Speaker 1: at minus four thousand, just like Laura Dern, just like
Speaker 1: Brad Pitt, Scarlett Johanson. Again, I said double nominee plus
Speaker 1: eleven hundred. Next, that's followed by Sir Sha Ronan and
Speaker 1: Cynthia Arrivo at plus twenty five hundred and Charlie's theron
Speaker 1: plus thirty three hundred. Again, like all the other favorites,
Speaker 1: reneesel Wiger won the Golden Globe and the sag Award.
Speaker 1: So tell me what do you think is gonna happen here?
Speaker 2: Hello?
Speaker 4: This is a luck? Why? Because she totally transformed her appearing.
Speaker 4: She looked just like Judy Garland Renee is a lock.
Speaker 4: She looked like her, she sounded like her, she was her.
Speaker 4: This is a comeback story. The Adamy loves it, and
Speaker 4: she is a lock.
Speaker 1: Okay, let me make the case for one other person.
Speaker 1: I know. Look, we have to make a case. Okay,
Speaker 1: I can't wait to hear who You're all right? Well,
Speaker 1: who would you think? You're? My sister? You know me? Well,
Speaker 1: well something I'm gonna go with Scarlett Johanson, Sara Sharonan,
Speaker 1: Cynthia Rivo where Charlie's the throng.
Speaker 4: God, I can make an argument for all of them
Speaker 4: except for scar Joe. I could say Sarah Sharonan, who
Speaker 4: I always say her name incorrectly, did not get the director.
Speaker 4: Not so she should get it. I would say Cynthia
Speaker 4: Arrivo had a phenomenal performance and of course would help
Speaker 4: represent the African American community with Oscar being oh so white.
Speaker 4: And then Charlie's of course supports my physical transformation story
Speaker 4: and actually looked exactly like Megan Kelly.
Speaker 1: She did yes, absolutely well. For me, it's a revo
Speaker 1: and it's not. Look, Zellwegger is the overwhelming favorite. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna put a taste where I can on a revote
Speaker 1: just again, you mentioned it. It is the story of
Speaker 1: Harriet Tubman. It is a historical figure. It is somebody
Speaker 1: who's extremely important. And look, it's just a fact of
Speaker 1: life that the can me gets a great deal of
Speaker 1: blowback when there aren't a lot of you know, African
Speaker 1: American nominees, and you know, for women, we'll talk about
Speaker 1: that with Little Women, with Gretg Gerwig not getting the
Speaker 1: best director, Get me started. They're well, you're gonna have
Speaker 1: to get started, because we'll talk about it. But there
Speaker 1: are you know, these these when when you're at a
Speaker 1: something like this, I could see Zewig getting it. Remember
Speaker 1: though she's won before. She's got one for cold Mountains.
Speaker 1: So you know, it's not as if this would be like, well,
Speaker 1: you know, she's had this long, storied career. We have
Speaker 1: to honor her. It is something where men, if somebody
Speaker 1: else is gonna win, to me, Cynthia Rivo, Harriet Tubman,
Speaker 1: that's just you know, a historical figure. I feel like,
Speaker 1: usually a good shot for Best Actress. So for me, yes,
Speaker 1: who do I expect to win? Rense Elwiger, I agree,
Speaker 1: But if I were to pick somebody else, it would
Speaker 1: be Cynthia Rivo because I do think, given all of
Speaker 1: these outside factors, that she's the only other one who
Speaker 1: has a shot.
Speaker 4: Well, I will tell you this. I absolutely loved Renees
Speaker 4: Elwiger's performance. However, I also loved Cynthia Rivo's performance, and
Speaker 4: if she won, I would jump for joy. Now you're
Speaker 4: giving me a bet that I think I'm going to take.
Speaker 1: There, I love it. And also, by the way, I
Speaker 1: have a writing candidate to get Kathy Baits also nominated.
Speaker 4: For Super Kathy Baits for all categories.
Speaker 1: Well a Best Actor, don't forget about that. Okay, yeah, correct,
Speaker 1: Let's go real quick to adapted screenplay, because I don't
Speaker 1: think this moves the needle much with Best Picture. I
Speaker 1: think whoever wins the original screenplay that's really more important.
Speaker 1: But let's go here. Jojo Rabbit actually the favorite at
Speaker 1: minus two hundred. So I mean we were talking about
Speaker 1: the actors minus four thousand, minus five thousand. This is
Speaker 1: all the way minus two hundred. So this is certainly
Speaker 1: a much closer race. Little Women second at plus one
Speaker 1: point fifty. Then you got to jump down to the
Speaker 1: Irishman at plus eight hundred, then a longer jump to
Speaker 1: the Joker at plus four thousand, and the two Popes
Speaker 1: at plus five thousand. I'm going to say this, this
Speaker 1: has shifted in recent weeks. Okay, Little Women was the
Speaker 1: favorite for a while. Then Jojo Rabbit taiko wa tit.
Speaker 1: She won the he won the Writer's Guild Awards. So
Speaker 1: you know that really is what has moved these odds
Speaker 1: here towards Jojo Rabbit. So how do you feel about
Speaker 1: this one?
Speaker 4: If I were betting on my favorite, I would take
Speaker 4: the long shot for the two popes. However, here I
Speaker 4: would bet Little Women because they have to win after
Speaker 4: the huge director snub. I mean to me, it's like
Speaker 4: that they have to win.
Speaker 1: And not only that, I mean, this isn't just honoring
Speaker 1: the movie. This is Gerwig herself, right, who was exactly
Speaker 1: who's one of the writers who's nominated for screenplay. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm surprised here, honestly, Like I get the Writer's Guild
Speaker 1: of America is you know, fairly predictive, and it contains
Speaker 1: a big body of people who are going to vote
Speaker 1: on the stuff. So I understand why it moved the odds.
Speaker 1: But in the end, they're Little Women's coming away with something.
Speaker 1: And I don't you know, they've got all the actress nominations.
Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna win any but this one.
Speaker 1: Come on, it's Greta Gerwig. There was all the talk
Speaker 1: how she didn't get a director nomination. I really think
Speaker 1: and you're getting plus you know, on your money, not overwhelming,
Speaker 1: but the fact that it's not the favorite, I agree
Speaker 1: with you completely. I think Little Women's going to take
Speaker 1: those home.
Speaker 4: I'm trying to think about why the odds shifted, and
Speaker 4: I guess it could be that Jojo Rabbit Now is
Speaker 4: widely released over OTT so it may be gain buzz
Speaker 4: or gaining momentum. It certainly is a very innovative story.
Speaker 4: But I just think too. You can't do gredit dirty
Speaker 4: like that.
Speaker 1: That's not right. No, I completely agree with you.
Speaker 2: No.
Speaker 1: And again, when these odds first opened, when the Academy
Speaker 1: was first nominade, I believe that Jojo Rabbit, that White
Speaker 1: Titi was third in the odds. Originally, like this was,
Speaker 1: this was not a favorite. And again it really has
Speaker 1: moved significantly. And one of the things that's weird about
Speaker 1: the Oscars this here is it's so early, right, because
Speaker 1: I think eventually what happened is that the odds, you know, people,
Speaker 1: it became a lot easier to protect, except Best Picture,
Speaker 1: and we'll talk about that in a bit, but it
Speaker 1: became much easier to pretict. Now that's earlier, there's a
Speaker 1: little uncertainty. So it's nice on the move. So we
Speaker 1: are in agreement here. We both think that Little Women
Speaker 1: is going to take home Adapted screenplay, So let us
Speaker 1: move on to original screenplay. This is a good one here.
Speaker 1: It's really, you know, a race between two and that's Parasite,
Speaker 1: which is the favorite at minus two hundred versus Once
Speaker 1: upon a Time in Hollywood, which is at plus one fifty.
Speaker 1: Then you jump down a bit to marriage story, also
Speaker 1: an incredibly well written film at plus oney nineteen seventeen
Speaker 1: at plus two thousand, and knives out at plus three thousand.
Speaker 1: The one thing I will say, nineteen seventeen, a movie
Speaker 1: that I loved, has like eight words of dialogue, so
Speaker 1: it's a little surprising to me that it was nominated
Speaker 1: for Original Screenplay. But what do you think here? This
Speaker 1: is a big one.
Speaker 4: This is all about the link between these awards. So
Speaker 4: whichever there is a chance here of the screenplay best
Speaker 4: Picture split right, So if Parasite doesn't win Best Picture,
Speaker 4: it will almost certainly win Original Screenplay. It's almost like
Speaker 4: it's gonna be the in my mind, the runner up prize.
Speaker 4: Whoever you think is going to win Best Picture, you
Speaker 4: have to pick the other for original screenplay, right.
Speaker 1: And the thing is, because we'll get to this too.
Speaker 1: You could see, okay, let's split up screenplay and Best
Speaker 1: Picture and Best Director. The problem is, as we'll get
Speaker 1: to of the these three kind of major most predictive awards,
Speaker 1: best Director is pretty much a lock. I mean, I'm
Speaker 1: going to be shocked in Sam Mendy for nineteen seventy
Speaker 1: that's at so that's almost certainly doing it. So if
Speaker 1: you have that. I will be shocked it could happen,
Speaker 1: and we'll talk about why in a minute. But once
Speaker 1: upon a time in Hollywood could win Best Picture. But
Speaker 1: I think Parasite has just been gaining steam. And we
Speaker 1: will talk about the text that you sent me roughly
Speaker 1: two months ago predicting that Parasite was going to win
Speaker 1: Best Picture before I had ever even heard of it.
Speaker 1: But I will say this, once upon a Time in
Speaker 1: Hollywood won the Golden Globe Award. It was not even
Speaker 1: nominated for Best Screenplay for the Writer's Guild Award. That
Speaker 1: is really, really weird, and I can't exactly figure it out.
Speaker 1: Parasite did win that award, So I mean, for me.
Speaker 4: You can't figure out why it wasn't nominated. There you're saying,
Speaker 4: not why it's nominated here?
Speaker 1: Oh correct, yes, absolutely no, no, no, no, I have absolutely
Speaker 1: no problem. I apologize for it being nominated here. But
Speaker 1: the fact especially it won the Golden Globe, and the
Speaker 1: Golden Globe is kind of an outlier, right, It's not
Speaker 1: all that predictive. It's a completely different body. The how
Speaker 1: press association form pressociations, so it's a completely different body.
Speaker 1: But in the end to not even be nominated for
Speaker 1: their Writers Skilled Award really surprised me. Again, that's a
Speaker 1: big voting block of this award, So for me, I
Speaker 1: think I'll go with Parasite. But you know, and that
Speaker 1: is actually one of the reasons why I do think
Speaker 1: to the extent they do want to honor them. And
Speaker 1: I said, for the most part, they don't go to actors.
Speaker 1: But Pitt I think is pretty much going to win
Speaker 1: that award, and that could be their way of saying, Okay,
Speaker 1: there you go, there's that award. You know what I mean?
Speaker 2: I do.
Speaker 4: I think because I felt so strongly about Parasite early
Speaker 4: and you have saved the text where I immediately felt
Speaker 4: that this was something that was going to gain steam.
Speaker 4: I am therefore not going to put it for Best Screenplay.
Speaker 4: I am going to put for Original Screenplay. Once upon
Speaker 4: a Time in Hollywood. Now, not only was that a
Speaker 4: very interesting story, but the way that it was told
Speaker 4: was fascinating, and the way that it's tied in reality
Speaker 4: with an alternate reality of these kind of Hollywood legends
Speaker 4: and long history in Hollywood. I think that Hollywood is
Speaker 4: in love with itself. The Academy is in love with itself.
Speaker 4: And so this will win something, and I think this
Speaker 4: is where it's going to go.
Speaker 1: Well, it certainly would make sense if this one original
Speaker 1: if one supon time in Hollywood won Original Screenplay nineteen seventeen,
Speaker 1: Sam and he's one Best Director, and then Parisi wins
Speaker 1: Best Picture, it would be a way to honor all
Speaker 1: of them.
Speaker 4: So I don't really does it happen, Dan, does that
Speaker 4: happen usually? You know, you have this long history of
Speaker 4: knowing every Oscar winner under the sun.
Speaker 1: That's true. The one thing is that things have changed
Speaker 1: a little bit, in part because of the fact that
Speaker 1: it went from being five nominated Best Pictures, where the
Speaker 1: universe was always much smaller, to nine and or ten
Speaker 1: up to ten and this year it's line. So it
Speaker 1: doesn't usually work like that. There aren't these three movies
Speaker 1: that everybody's like, Oh, I really want to, you know,
Speaker 1: evaluate it and give some love to So I would
Speaker 1: say not winning for screenplay. It used to be Best
Speaker 1: Director and Best Picture were completely correlated, but in recent
Speaker 1: years it's been a huge split with that. So at
Speaker 1: this point, the way it would split, it's it's not
Speaker 1: that surprising that it would happen historically, though, it'd be
Speaker 1: pretty rare, I.
Speaker 4: Think, especially looking at the odds, though I would not
Speaker 4: bet personally. I would not bet Parasite on that because
Speaker 4: it's it's not enough skin in the game to actually matter,
Speaker 4: and once upon a time in Hollywood has some and
Speaker 4: so I would bet this here.
Speaker 1: Yep, I think that's an absolutely fair take. Now, Best Director,
Speaker 1: we mentioned it briefly. Sounds like we're both in agreement here.
Speaker 1: Sam Mendy's the overwhelming favorite at minus nine hundred, Bang
Speaker 1: Juno at plus four fifty for Parasite, Quentin Tarantino at
Speaker 1: plus seventeen hundred, Martin Scorsese at plus four thousand, and
Speaker 1: Todd Phillips at plus five thousand. So again, Sam Mendy's
Speaker 1: he won the Golden Globe, he won the DGA. The
Speaker 1: DGA the Director's Guild of America Awards. They are the
Speaker 1: most predictive award by far. If you win that, you
Speaker 1: know all. But I think it's seven over the last
Speaker 1: I don't know, like fifty sixty years have wound up
Speaker 1: winning the Oscar for Best Director, so incredibly predictive. So
Speaker 1: are we in agreement here that Sam Mendes is basically
Speaker 1: walking home with this award. Yes, all right, let me
Speaker 1: ask let me just try to throw one little tiny,
Speaker 1: it'sy bitsy wrinkle into it in our sort of They
Speaker 1: want to honor all these movies, so let's see how
Speaker 1: they're able to break it down. Quentin Tarantino has been
Speaker 1: around for a long time, right. He's made a number
Speaker 1: of highly regarded films that have been, you know, nominated
Speaker 1: for Oscars. He won Best Screenplay, I believe, for Pulp
Speaker 1: Fiction and it was nominated, and he was nominated in
Speaker 1: Glorious Bastards. He's obviously been around the while. I believe
Speaker 1: he has said that he is making one more film
Speaker 1: after this and that is it and then he is done.
Speaker 1: And if that's true, is there any chance it's plus
Speaker 1: seventeen hundred? It's a big log shot. Is there any
Speaker 1: chance that the Academy is gonna be like, you know what,
Speaker 1: we don't know what that last film is gonna be.
Speaker 1: He said he might be a star Trek he's been
Speaker 1: talking about. So it may not even have a chance
Speaker 1: to be nominated for an Oscar. This could be their
Speaker 1: last chance to nominate Tarantino. Is there any way anyway
Speaker 1: to be clear? I don't think there is I'm just
Speaker 1: throwing out food for thought, but is there any way
Speaker 1: Tarantino plus seventeen hundred. That's a lot on your money
Speaker 1: that there could be a curveball here and that the
Speaker 1: Oscar could go to Tarantino for once upon a time
Speaker 1: in Hollywood at plus seventeen hundred.
Speaker 4: Look, I think odds are odds for a reason, because
Speaker 4: the ones that are most likely to win often have
Speaker 4: the best odds. I think it's a fair point and
Speaker 4: an interesting point, and a good kind of long shot.
Speaker 4: If you're looking at if you say, you know what,
Speaker 4: that's possible, that's a hypothesis I could get behind. So
Speaker 4: I think it's interesting. I mean, I'm not a huge
Speaker 4: Tarantino fan anyway, which I'm sure most of the listeners
Speaker 4: that you will have here will probably hate me for that.
Speaker 4: But I did enjoy this film by far more than
Speaker 4: his other films. So I think it's a shot.
Speaker 1: It's a chance, it's a chance, it's a chance.
Speaker 4: It certainly makes for an interesting chat, interesting podcast.
Speaker 1: I like it. That is a very delicate way of
Speaker 1: saying that you disagree strongly, and I really appreciate it.
Speaker 1: But yeah, Sam Menda is gonna win.
Speaker 4: It's all in one shot.
Speaker 1: It's beauty. It's all.
Speaker 4: You should see it in the theater, all of it.
Speaker 1: It is gorgeous. It's a wonderful movie. I do love it,
Speaker 1: and I am gonna let you know that after this,
Speaker 1: I'm going to change my Twitter profile to quick to
Speaker 1: add in the quote that's a hypothesis I could get behind,
Speaker 1: because I think that that's going to be my new
Speaker 1: life model.
Speaker 4: All right, I thought you were going to change it
Speaker 4: to I Love Kathy Bates.
Speaker 1: Well, I think I have a restraining order against me,
Speaker 1: so I have to be careful. Okay, let's go on
Speaker 1: to Best Picture here, the big one. This is it.
Speaker 1: We've talked about it. It's it's really a three way race,
Speaker 1: as we talked about. But you know, Joker, I believe
Speaker 1: has the most nominations here with eleven, so that's always
Speaker 1: kind of a predictive for Best Picture. But let's talk
Speaker 1: about the odds here. Nineteen seventeen is the current favorite.
Speaker 1: They're at minus two fifty, so that's a fair favorite
Speaker 1: at this point when you're talking about Best Picture. Parasite
Speaker 1: is next at plus three twenty five. That's a pretty
Speaker 1: big difference between the two I'm a little surprised that
Speaker 1: it's that different. Once upon a Time in Hollywood at
Speaker 1: plus eight hundred, Joker at plus twelve hundred, and nobody
Speaker 1: else has a realistic chance, but I will add them
Speaker 1: in The Irishman at plus five thousand, Jojo Rabbit at
Speaker 1: plus sixty six hundred, Little Women at plus eight thousand,
Speaker 1: Marriage Story at plus ten thousand and four, v Ferrari
Speaker 1: at plus twenty five thousand. So let's just break this
Speaker 1: down for very quickly. The nineteen seventeen won the Golden
Speaker 1: Globe for Best Picture in a Drama, Once Upon a
Speaker 1: Time won Best Golden Globe for Best Picture Comedy or Musical,
Speaker 1: and Parasite won the SAG Awards. So it's all over
Speaker 1: the place. So I look, I have a text. I
Speaker 1: can read the text, so I know exactly what you're
Speaker 1: going to say. But go ahead. You think that Parasite
Speaker 1: is taking this home. Huh.
Speaker 4: Well, I think that nineteen seventeen is the heavy favorite,
Speaker 4: but I want to see Parasite win, and I think
Speaker 4: there can be a good upset. I'm actually upset that
Speaker 4: the odds have come this close. There's a big spread here, obviously,
Speaker 4: from negative two fifty to three twenty five. However, I
Speaker 4: thought it would be even farther way. But this has
Speaker 4: been mementom sad did me dirty. I'm not happy about it.
Speaker 4: But the reason I think Parasite will win. First of all,
Speaker 4: I think it was like the Shocker of the year,
Speaker 4: like you didn't expect anything from it. You didn't have
Speaker 4: any idea what was going to happen in the movie.
Speaker 4: I mean, we were just sitting there in that film, like,
Speaker 4: oh my goodness, about halfway through and we had no
Speaker 4: idea what to expect. And it was fantastic, surprising, interesting,
Speaker 4: beautifully acted all of the things. And it's also not white,
Speaker 4: and I think that would be the showing that they
Speaker 4: need this has enough odds to make it close. I mean,
Speaker 4: Cynthia Rivo is far away. I love that argument, you know,
Speaker 4: I'd love if she wanted. But but Parasite, I think
Speaker 4: could be a good representation of showing that, no, we
Speaker 4: don't always select every war movie, mobster movie, you know,
Speaker 4: every every typical movie that you see. We do have
Speaker 4: a depth to us and we do pick things that
Speaker 4: are sometimes unexpected. This to me felt very much like
Speaker 4: the crash moment where I saw it, and I was like, no,
Speaker 4: this is it. Even though even though it wasn't necessarily
Speaker 4: the best of the films Crash at the time, I
Speaker 4: just knew it based on what was happening in the world,
Speaker 4: and I kind of feel like with Parasite it's the same.
Speaker 1: So the one thing that makes this award much more
Speaker 1: difficult to predict, I think than any other award is
Speaker 1: that this is not done in the same way that
Speaker 1: other awards are done. You rank these awards, the voters
Speaker 1: rank them, so you literally go there and you rank
Speaker 1: your choices, and so you could conceivably be Parasite, could
Speaker 1: be no voter's first choice, and could be every voter
Speaker 1: second choice and win the Oscar for Best Picture, because
Speaker 1: in the end it winds up with however they tabulated
Speaker 1: based on the ranking. So this one is really difficult
Speaker 1: to predict. So look, Parasite is a funment. I mean it.
Speaker 1: You know, it reminds you a lot of get out
Speaker 1: right that sort of thing, nineteen seventeen and you know, yeah,
Speaker 1: it's the war movie. It's kind of like the classic
Speaker 1: or like whatever. To me, I'm gonna I it the
Speaker 1: I don't love the odds rankly because I think, you know,
Speaker 1: to me, the odds should be even closer. I mean,
Speaker 1: this is really kind of a toss up right now
Speaker 1: between Parasite and nineteen seventeen. But I still think in
Speaker 1: the end, nineteen seventeen is going to take it home.
Speaker 1: And you know, part of it again reminds me a
Speaker 1: little bit of Birdman, which had the same concept in
Speaker 1: terms of directing, where it's done to be one long,
Speaker 1: continuous shot. It was really just stunning in every single way.
Speaker 1: So for me, I think in the end, what probably
Speaker 1: happens and it's the favorite. As we talked about for screenplay,
Speaker 1: I think they're going to honor Parasite with Best Screenplay,
Speaker 1: to give a foreign language film Best Picture. I mean,
Speaker 1: they're almost there. The Academy is moving in that direction,
Speaker 1: but for me, I think we're still a little bit
Speaker 1: of a step away from it. That's a big leap.
Speaker 1: So for me, I think I don't love the odds,
Speaker 1: so I wouldn't place a bet on it. And you know,
Speaker 1: I like the odds at Parasite at plus three twenty five,
Speaker 1: which they were much longer, just you know, a week
Speaker 1: or two ago. I think the odds on that are
Speaker 1: better in terms of what I think the actual chances
Speaker 1: of winning are. But I do think in the end
Speaker 1: that nineteen seventeen takes it up.
Speaker 4: I'm sure you're right. Look, I mean it makes sense,
Speaker 4: especially with the split, and especially with Once Upon a
Speaker 4: Time in Hollywood. Like if you look at it, like
Speaker 4: Parasite takes screenplay and then nineteen seventeen takes the other two,
Speaker 4: it's just look at the odds. What's kind of what's
Speaker 4: the point? So I think you got to have a
Speaker 4: little fun for me. I'm going Parasite on Best Picture.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go Sam Mendez for Best Director, and I'm
Speaker 4: gonna go Once Upon a Time in Hollywood for screenplay,
Speaker 4: just for fun, because hello, I want to win.
Speaker 2: I like it.
Speaker 4: I don't want to bet, you know, one hundred bucks
Speaker 4: to win.
Speaker 1: Two unless it's unless it's Kathy Bits, right, only Kathy Baits. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's the only exception.
Speaker 4: But I'm betting on her right away, and her odds
Speaker 4: are the best of all.
Speaker 1: No, I completely agree. Well, Long Shot of the Night
Speaker 1: is going to be a revo. That's the one who
Speaker 1: I think could do it. Otherwise, I'm pretty much going
Speaker 1: with the favorites. I think Parasite's gonna win Original Screenplay.
Speaker 1: And again I don't love the odds, you know, minus
Speaker 1: two hundred mendes though for sure, and I do think
Speaker 1: nineteen seventeen is gonna take it. That may be a
Speaker 1: little bit of wishful thinking for me, because I did
Speaker 1: love it. It was my favorite film of the season.
Speaker 1: But it's gonna be interesting. And again, this is something
Speaker 1: you know, we talk about Crash all the time. That's
Speaker 1: like the quintessential, like, wow, we didn't really see that
Speaker 1: coming except you. But remember Moonlight just a few years ago.
Speaker 1: Nobody right, nobody saw that. Everybody thought it was gonna
Speaker 1: be Lalla Aline. So it is something where you know,
Speaker 1: upset time, including Warren Beatty, including Warren bit No, it
Speaker 1: wasn't his fault, all right, They gave him the wrong
Speaker 1: on Belove so whatever. All right, Well, look that is
Speaker 1: going to do it for today's show. Carry Kurpin, thank
Speaker 1: you for coming on. Tell everyone, because I've been talking
Speaker 1: this whole time, and other than our upbringing. Tell everyone
Speaker 1: where they can find you, where they can check you out.
Speaker 1: Tell everybody about yourself.
Speaker 4: Sure you can find me at Carrie Kirpin, just about
Speaker 4: everywhere in the world. You can check out my podcast
Speaker 4: All the Social Ladies, which interviews women in marketing, or
Speaker 4: you can buy my book work at Secrets for Success
Speaker 4: from the Boldest Woman in Business. I do wish they
Speaker 4: had Oscar betting tips there because I could do a
Speaker 4: whole chapter on that and talk about it all day.
Speaker 4: So thank you for indulging me. Dan, this is your
Speaker 4: sister's dream, I know.
Speaker 1: It's my pleasure. Well, we do Oscar odds. Basically, we
Speaker 1: have this entire conversation, just not on a podcast every
Speaker 1: single year. Anyway. This is kind of how our family
Speaker 1: grew up. So hopefully we can have you back next year,
Speaker 1: I hope. So all right, thanks again, thanks again for
Speaker 1: coming on, and I'll see you in a couple of
Speaker 1: weeks when we come down to visit.
Speaker 2: That's right.
Speaker 1: I want to mind everybody about DraftKings, where you can
Speaker 1: place a five dollars wager on any picture to win
Speaker 1: best picture and win fifty dollars if you are correct. Now,
Speaker 1: I'm not sure of our schedule going forward here guys,
Speaker 1: but you can always reach me at Dan Harris eighty
Speaker 1: on Twitter if you want to inquire. Until then, enjoy
Speaker 1: the Oscars gear it for some baseball and we'll talk
Speaker 1: to him ten Tebody are never
Speaker 2: T