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Speaker 1: Hey there everyone, Welcome back to a very special edition

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Speaker 1: of the Betting Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris.

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Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris AD.

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Speaker 1: In case you missed it, the Super Bowl is over.

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Speaker 1: The twenty nineteen season is officially closed, which means it

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Speaker 1: is time to take an early look at the futures

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Speaker 1: for the twenty twenty season. Now, look, the twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: season is a long way from now. We just got

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Speaker 1: past the biggest gambling event of the year. So you know,

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Speaker 1: when you try to move on from something like you

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Speaker 1: want to cut down on coffee and you don't go

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Speaker 1: from three cups a day to zero, you wean yourself off, right,

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Speaker 1: So super Bowl's over. Rather than doing nothing for months,

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Speaker 1: you can wean yourself off the gambling high that you

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Speaker 1: got when the under on Patrick Mahomes rushing yards hit.

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Speaker 1: There's a giant event on Sunday one that a ton

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Speaker 1: of people in America will be watching and you can

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Speaker 1: wager on it. It's called the Oscars. So first we're

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Speaker 1: going to take a look at some future for the

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty NFL season with Ian McMillan, a writer over

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Speaker 1: at Odds shark dot Com. And then we're going to

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Speaker 1: bring in a special guest and noted oscar expert Kerry Kerpin,

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Speaker 1: the CEO of Likable Media, to break down some of

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Speaker 1: the odds on the major Academy awards. Let's get started

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Speaker 1: here with Ian, who you can find over on Twitter

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Speaker 1: at Ian macOS. That's I, Ai, n Ian. Did you

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Speaker 1: have the over or the under on Patrick Mahomes rushing

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Speaker 1: yards in the Super Bowl, Because it seems like everyone

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Speaker 1: in America had a piece of that bet.

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Speaker 2: No, I did not take that.

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Speaker 3: One of my coworkers, though, Joe Osborn, a odd shark,

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Speaker 3: had the over on it, so he was pretty heart

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Speaker 3: broken with how that prop ended.

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Speaker 1: I'll be honest, I had the under, and I just

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Speaker 1: I had thrown it out. I think it was at

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Speaker 1: forty three in the over under. I think I had

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Speaker 1: it at thirty and a half or something. That's not

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Speaker 1: a bet that happens. That is the worst beat I've

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Speaker 1: ever seen in any capacity for any bet. If you

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Speaker 1: had the over on it, I will say that I

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Speaker 1: read that points bet to their credit. I think basically

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Speaker 1: refunded the money for over under, so that's good. I

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Speaker 1: don't know if for the people who took the overs.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if everybody else did that, but it's

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Speaker 1: really the worst beat of all time for any sports.

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Speaker 1: I've never seen anything like that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's terror.

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Speaker 3: He didn't even take normal knees like he took extra

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Speaker 3: yards that if he just took normal like the one

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Speaker 3: or two yard kneel downs, then course of.

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Speaker 1: Course he had a seven yard kneel down. I've never

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Speaker 1: seen that before, and I get it running to kill

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Speaker 1: some time off the clock. But still, man, as someone

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Speaker 1: who had bet the under, I was not disappointed, but

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Speaker 1: still I certainly felt bad for the large majority of

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Speaker 1: people who had the over, because again, that was that

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Speaker 1: was not only a very highly bet prop, but it

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Speaker 1: was also something where the vast majority of money came

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Speaker 1: in on the over. So that's a tough beat. But again,

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Speaker 1: we move on. So let's talk about ways to make

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Speaker 1: up for it. Let's talk about some futures. At this point,

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Speaker 1: there aren't any books as far as I can tell,

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Speaker 1: with divisional winners, so let's just break down the conference

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Speaker 1: and Super Bowl futures. All right, let's start with the

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Speaker 1: AFC winner. I'm just gonna list out the consensus odds

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Speaker 1: for you and our listeners, and then you can talk

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Speaker 1: about your favorites. Okay, Now, not surprisingly, the Chiefs, the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl winners, are the favorites next year to win

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Speaker 1: the AFC. It's not a big price, it's merely plus

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Speaker 1: three hundred. Then you've got the Ravens close behind at

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Speaker 1: plus four hundred, little bit of a drop to the

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Speaker 1: Patriots at plus seven hundred, a little bit of another

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Speaker 1: drop to the Titans and the Steelers at plus ten

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Speaker 1: to fifty, and then you're really going downhill. The Browns

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Speaker 1: and Texans at plus fifteen hundred, the Bills at plus

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Speaker 1: sixteen hundred, the Colts at plus eighteen hundred, the Chargers,

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Speaker 1: the Raiders and the Broncos at plus twenty two hundred,

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Speaker 1: the Jets at plus three thousand, the Jaguars at plus

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Speaker 1: thirty five hundred, followed by the poor little Bengals and

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Speaker 1: Dolphins at plus forty five hundred. So what do you think?

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Speaker 1: Do we push all our chips in on the Raiders

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Speaker 1: at plus twenty two hundred, hope that Tom Brady lands

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Speaker 1: there or what's the play here?

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Speaker 2: No? I don't think so.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I think the NFC is going to be

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Speaker 3: a lot more of an interesting conversation because I think

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Speaker 3: the AFC is just so top heavy. I mean, obviously

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Speaker 3: a million different things can happen between now and Week

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Speaker 3: one of the twenty twenty season with the draft, free.

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Speaker 2: Agency, who knows what kind of trades might get done.

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Speaker 3: But I mean I think it's it's got to be

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Speaker 3: the Chief so that that are going to dominate the

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Speaker 3: AFC again. Even the Chiefs regular season, I thought they

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Speaker 3: didn't have a great regular season. I think they're probably

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Speaker 3: gonna have a better regular season next year. The Ravens

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Speaker 3: at plus four hundred, I don't really like them because

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Speaker 3: I mean, they were kind of a team that just

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Speaker 3: exploded over nowhere. They're obviously the best regular season team,

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Speaker 3: but I'm not confident enough that they're gonna be able

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Speaker 3: to repeat that amazing performance they had this year. So

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Speaker 3: as boring and as square of a bet it might be,

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Speaker 3: I think really the only bet to make in this

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Speaker 3: situation would be the chief at plus three hundred. I mean,

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Speaker 3: the only other name that I would even interest me

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Speaker 3: a little bit would maybe be the Bills at plus

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Speaker 3: sixteen hundred if they can get a couple extra pieces.

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Speaker 2: And Josh Allen has a good season next year.

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Speaker 3: But I don't really see anyone else given to the

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Speaker 3: Chiefs a run for the money unless we see the

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Speaker 3: Ravens have another great year like they did last year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the Bills stuck out to me just because the price,

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Speaker 1: you know, plus sixteen hundred, those are fairly good odds.

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Speaker 1: You saw Josh Allen take another step in his second year.

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Speaker 1: The play calling was really creative. If they can add

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Speaker 1: a few more offensive skill players with that defense, they

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Speaker 1: could be a scared team. But you know, don't you

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Speaker 1: think a lot? First of all, are you just assuming

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Speaker 1: that Tom Brady returns to the Patriots? By the way,

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Speaker 1: is that how you're analyzing everything?

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Speaker 3: Yes, I am, because there's even there's even a book

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Speaker 3: that's offering odds on whether or not Tom Brady's going

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Speaker 3: back to the Patriots. I think he's like minus two

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Speaker 3: hundred to go back to the Patriots.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, most.

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Speaker 3: Likely, especially with that Super Bowl that weird Super Bowl

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Speaker 3: commercial announcement that he kind of have made. So I

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Speaker 3: think he's going to be back on the Patriots.

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Speaker 1: Yeh, Yeah, I despise that, you know, the the early

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Speaker 1: Instagram post, you know, to make everybody think about it.

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Speaker 1: But again, Jets fan living in New England, I won't

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Speaker 1: harp on it, so it's tough. Well, let me ad something.

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Speaker 1: If he is coming back, why not the Pats at

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Speaker 1: plus seven hundred, I mean they had nothing this year whatsoever.

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Speaker 1: Their receiving corps was decimated. You have to assume if

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Speaker 1: he's going to come back there, he's going to do

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Speaker 1: it based on the guarantee that they're going to give

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Speaker 1: him a lot more help on offense. So what about them?

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Speaker 1: Any value on them at plus seven hundred? Then if

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Speaker 1: Brady is coming back, I.

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Speaker 3: Mean, if you think that the Patriots are going to

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Speaker 3: get weapons this offseason, then getting them at plus seven

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Speaker 3: hundred wouldn't be a bad bet now, because if they

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Speaker 3: do get weapons, their odds will probably, you know, go up.

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Speaker 3: One of the big names that I've kind of seen

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Speaker 3: around a little bit is Greg Olsen. He's knock gonna

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Speaker 3: be with the Panthers anymore. So, I mean they could

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Speaker 3: use a tight end. There's one weapon right there that

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Speaker 3: would seem like a pretty easy fit into the Patriots scheme.

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Speaker 2: So I mean, yeah, if if you want.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I absolutely despise the Patriots, so I would

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Speaker 3: never bet on them to win, to win the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 3: or to win the AFC.

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Speaker 2: But plus seven hundred.

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Speaker 3: If they do get the weapons, then now would probably

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Speaker 3: be a good time to bet on them. But I

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Speaker 3: mean that's a big if if they are going to

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Speaker 3: get the weapons that tom Brady's asking for, and then

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Speaker 3: even if he does, we saw tom Brady take a

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Speaker 3: little bit of a step back this year. Was that

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Speaker 3: an anomaly because he didn't have the weapons or was

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Speaker 3: he showing his age a little bit? So's there's some

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Speaker 3: question marks with the Patriots that would make me hesitant

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Speaker 3: to bet on them.

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Speaker 2: At this point in time.

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Speaker 1: Well, well, let me tell you something that I think

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Speaker 1: you're doing life completely wrong. Okay, because I too, as

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Speaker 1: I talk about, often despise the Patriots. Just again, Jets

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Speaker 1: fan living in New England married into a Patriots fan.

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Speaker 1: It has been my nightmare for several years. So I

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Speaker 1: always throw a little bit of money on them to

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Speaker 1: both win the AFC and the Super Bowl, just because

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Speaker 1: I'm like, if I'm going to be miserable, at least

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Speaker 1: I need to profit off it a little bit. So

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Speaker 1: the fact that you hate them really shouldn't impact that.

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Speaker 1: The second point that I'll make with them. Is that

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Speaker 1: to me? I really think at this point that Brady

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Speaker 1: he does have leverage at this point, and I think

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Speaker 1: it's very much gonna be I am not returning unless

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Speaker 1: you give me the weapons, and I think they will

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Speaker 1: give him the weapons. So I think if you're assuming

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Speaker 1: Brady returns, I really do think it's based on the

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Speaker 1: promise that they're going to give him somebody to come

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Speaker 1: back to. Let me throw a couple of other names

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Speaker 1: out here, okay, and let me just see what you

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Speaker 1: think of these. Yep, what about the Browns. I know

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Speaker 1: this was a disaster. Of course, this whole year basically

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Speaker 1: was blue up in smoke. But you know they're at

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Speaker 1: plus fifteen hundred. Stefanski comes in. He's gonna help that offense. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: it couldn't get any worse than it was. They'll have

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Speaker 1: a healthy old El Beckham junior, who you know, you

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Speaker 1: assume he's gonna stay. They've got a top ten pick,

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Speaker 1: They've got a boatload of cap space. I mean, everybody

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Speaker 1: was pretty excited about them coming into the air. I

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Speaker 1: think they're over under on wins. Might have been nine

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Speaker 1: and a half. Obviously a disaster, but they do have

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Speaker 1: a lot of talented pieces with the new coaching staff,

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Speaker 1: with Beckham healthy, any chance you think that you can

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Speaker 1: find some value on the Browns at plus fifteen.

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Speaker 2: Hundred, I mean, I don't think so.

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Speaker 3: I think I would have to see the Browns play

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Speaker 3: next season before I put any kind of bet on them.

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Speaker 3: It really does come down to how good of a

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Speaker 3: coaching job the new guy will do. I don't think

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Speaker 3: that that was a great hire by them. I think

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Speaker 3: so Law would have been a much better choice, but

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Speaker 3: they wanted to get this guy right after that divisional

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Speaker 3: round game, So I think it really does come down

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Speaker 3: to him. And with the guys that they have on

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Speaker 3: the Browns team, it's hard to coach them because if

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Speaker 3: things start falling apart.

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Speaker 2: We saw this this past season.

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Speaker 3: If things start falling apart a little tiny bit, they

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Speaker 3: just they implode. And so because of that reason, I

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Speaker 3: can't trust the Browns at all. If they get off

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Speaker 3: to a good start and you see a little bit

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Speaker 3: of momentum and like as if they were playing like

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Speaker 3: a team, then maybe it's a team you want to

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Speaker 3: take a shot on after the first couple of weeks.

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Speaker 3: But I need to see something from them before I

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Speaker 3: could place any kind of futures bet from them.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I think the one thing that really does not change

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Speaker 1: from this past year is that they have a group

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Speaker 1: of personalities where things go south, it's gonna go south.

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Speaker 1: And I believe it was Adam Burke who was on

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Speaker 1: and he's a Browns fan. We talked about it in

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Speaker 1: the preseason last year about how he was not on them.

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Speaker 1: You know, they were the most bad team I believe

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Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl, them and the Bears, and

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Speaker 1: he was not on them just because you could see

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Speaker 1: them getting off to a rough start and then things

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Speaker 1: going completely south and it unfolded exactly that way. So

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Speaker 1: I get everything you're saying. I'm gonna be really interested

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Speaker 1: to see how this offseason unfolds for them, because I

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Speaker 1: admit that I'm a little optimistic just given how bad

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Speaker 1: everything went last year, and Baker Mayfield's much better core

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Speaker 1: and he showed and I do think he can bounce back.

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Speaker 1: But let's talk about one other team here for the AFC,

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Speaker 1: because they also caught my eye just a little bit

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Speaker 1: given their odds, which is at plus eighteen hundred, and

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Speaker 1: that's the Colts. You know. The one thing with the Colts.

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Speaker 1: Is you know, they played pretty well early on last year,

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Speaker 1: they eventually fell apart. T Y Hilton was dealing with

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Speaker 1: an injury. Jacoby Brissett not the answer. He was able

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Speaker 1: to fill in in what is pretty much an elite

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Speaker 1: offensive system because he had been with them now at

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Speaker 1: that point for long enough. He was preparing for it,

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Speaker 1: so he was ready to come in, and so they

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Speaker 1: were able to get by. But you know, they've got

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Speaker 1: nearly ninety million dollars in cap space. There are a

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Speaker 1: bunch of quarterbacks kind of going around. Maybe Brady I

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Speaker 1: know he's going to probably go back to the Patriots,

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Speaker 1: but he's certainly out there. Even Philip Rivers, who I

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Speaker 1: realized took a downturn there at the end and certainly

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Speaker 1: did not play particularly well through the second half of

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Speaker 1: the season. Maybe Jameis Winston. There's there are people out

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Speaker 1: there who they might be able to add, who could

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Speaker 1: be more competent than Brissett. And they have, again the

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Speaker 1: elite system. Overall, they're a very talented team, a great

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Speaker 1: offensive line. So do you think that there's any chance

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Speaker 1: that they could provide some value at plus eighteen hundred?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: Sure, I don't hate the value there on the Colts.

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Speaker 3: The Colts are second on the odds list of land

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Speaker 3: Philip Rivers. I think that would be very interesting, especially

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Speaker 3: with the receiving corp that the Colts have with t

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Speaker 3: Y Hilton Paris Campbell, the Colts rookie receiver this past season.

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Speaker 3: He was hurt almost the whole year two. I think

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Speaker 3: a lot of people are forgetting about him. He's a

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Speaker 3: very talented player. I'd be excited to see how he

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Speaker 3: does last or next year once he's healthy. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: plus eighteen hundred with kind of I mean, there's no

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Speaker 3: real number three, number four team in the AFC that

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Speaker 3: could be the Colts that could slide into that spot

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Speaker 3: next year if they get a couple of pieces in

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Speaker 3: the offseason, So sure, plus eighteen hundred.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I don't hate those odds at all.

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Speaker 1: And I think the one thing I'll say about that

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Speaker 1: is if you like it like I do, and ETON

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Speaker 1: sort of does, this would probably be the time to

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Speaker 1: bet it, because if they get an upgraded quarterback, I

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Speaker 1: don't see their odds getting longer from where they are now.

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Speaker 1: There's really no reason for that unless they don't make

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Speaker 1: a move at quarterback and somehow per set sustains you know,

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Speaker 1: a tough injury, then they're really gat no shot there.

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Speaker 1: But at this point, frankly, given you know where they

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Speaker 1: are a strong team, if they get a quarterback, the

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Speaker 1: odds are going to get you know, much shorter. So

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Speaker 1: if you do like them, I think i'd make a move. Now,

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Speaker 1: all right, I think we talked enough here about the AFC,

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Speaker 1: So let's go on to the NFC, which you described

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Speaker 1: as much more interesting. So that'll be good, so he

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Speaker 1: can lead us there. Forty nine ers, not surprisingly off

294
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Speaker 1: their Super Bowl appearance are the Favorites at plus five hundred,

295
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Speaker 1: Saints at plus six hundred, Eagles at plus eight hundred,

296
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Speaker 1: Packers at plus eight fifty, the Seahawks, Vikings and Cowboys

297
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Speaker 1: all at plus nine fifty, the Rams at plus one

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Speaker 1: thousand and fifty, Falcons of Bears at plus sixteen hundred,

299
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Speaker 1: the Bucks at plus twenty two hundred, the Panthers, Giants, Lions,

300
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Speaker 1: Cardinals all at plus three thousand. Bringing up the rear

301
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Speaker 1: are the Redskins at plus forty five hundred. So unlike

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Speaker 1: the AFC kind of how you alluded to, you've got

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Speaker 1: a lot lot of teams here, whose odds are not

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Speaker 1: that long necessarily to win. So what do you think

305
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Speaker 1: what's sticking out to you in terms of value here?

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Speaker 3: I might sound bias here. Actually I'm probably definitely gonna

307
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Speaker 3: sound bias. So maybe you can talk some actual logic

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Speaker 3: endo me here, because I do this every single offseason

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Speaker 3: with my Atlanta Falcons. But they after the bye week

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Speaker 3: this past season. Don't forget, they ended the season very strong.

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Speaker 3: I think there are six and two after the bye week,

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Speaker 3: including a win over the Super Bowl San.

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Speaker 2: Francisco forty nine ers. They beat them there late in

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Speaker 2: the season.

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Speaker 3: So sixteen to one, I mean, I wasn't a huge

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Speaker 3: fan of them bringing dan Quinn back to completely, to

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Speaker 3: be completely honest, that does worry me a little bit.

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Speaker 3: But I mean Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, I mean,

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Speaker 3: they've got a young secondary. They need to add a

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Speaker 3: pass rusher for sure, in the draft or in free

321
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Speaker 3: agency or a trade or something. They definitely need a

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Speaker 3: pass rusher. But sixteen to one, I mean, like I said,

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Speaker 3: they had a great end of the season. So maybe

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Speaker 3: this is me being a huge Falcons fan. My bias

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Speaker 3: might be showing. So I'm interested to hear your thoughts,

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Speaker 3: but that would be the number that sticks out to

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Speaker 3: me the most out all these teams.

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Speaker 1: Okay, first of all, let me ask you, how are

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Speaker 1: you a Falcons fan? Because I can hear in your

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Speaker 1: voice you must be from Canada.

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Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, so I'm Canadian.

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Speaker 3: So so we don't really have any kind of allegiance

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Speaker 3: because we don't have any teams. So, if I'm being

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Speaker 3: one hundred percent completely honest, when I first started watching football,

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Speaker 3: the way I got into it was I bought like

336
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Speaker 3: Madden two thousand and five or something, and it was

337
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Speaker 3: the first year of Superstar Mode, and I created a

338
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Speaker 3: player and I was like, well, I have no allegiance

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Speaker 3: to any team. Whatever team my player gets drafted to,

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Speaker 3: that's gonna be my favorite team for the rest of

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Speaker 3: my life. And the player got drafted by the Atlanta Falcons.

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Speaker 3: So I have been in a Falcons fan ever since.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I needed some reason to pick a team,

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Speaker 3: so I figured that was as good of a reason

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Speaker 3: as ever.

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Speaker 1: That's an outstanding story, and I love it. And you've

347
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Speaker 1: stuck with them no matter what. Obviously they've they you know,

348
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Speaker 1: they haven't always been winners, so it's been good to

349
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Speaker 1: stick with them. Look, I you maybe you'll be disappointed

350
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Speaker 1: by this, maybe you'll be happy, but I'm not going

351
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Speaker 1: to talk you out of it. I had a couple

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Speaker 1: of teams on my list that I kind of looked

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Speaker 1: at as being like, you know, it's not that I

354
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Speaker 1: necessarily am going to go in thinking like, yeah, I

355
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Speaker 1: really think this team is going to win the NFC

356
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Speaker 1: next year, but it's certainly something where I looked at

357
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Speaker 1: the odds and I thought that had value. Absolutely. The

358
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Speaker 1: Falcons were one of the teams on the list. They

359
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Speaker 1: played so well down the stretch. Again, I was one of,

360
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Speaker 1: you know, the many people calling for dan Quinn to

361
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Speaker 1: be fired in the middle of the season because the

362
00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:21,160
Speaker 1: team looked dead in the water. They stuck with him.

363
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Speaker 1: They didn't fire him. The team played very, very well

364
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Speaker 1: down the stretch. As you mentioned the defense, it's always injured, right,

365
00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:29,160
Speaker 1: I mean, they need help on defense generally, But if

366
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Speaker 1: they can just stay healthy one year and come together

367
00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:36,120
Speaker 1: with the receivers with Hooper emerging, yeah, I completely like it.

368
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Speaker 1: I definitely that was one of my picks. So plus

369
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Speaker 1: sixteen hundred, I think that's one that we both, like

370
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Speaker 1: anybody else here that you're finding value because I have

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Speaker 1: a couple of names that I'll throw out there which

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Speaker 1: are more long shots. But you know, I'm wondering whether

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Speaker 1: or not you have any other teams that you like

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Speaker 1: value other than the Falcons, which I agree is one

375
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Speaker 1: of my favorites.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the other team that sticking out to me is

377
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Speaker 3: probably the Rams plus a little over plus one thousand there.

378
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Speaker 3: I mean the Rams there were they were in a

379
00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:02,200
Speaker 3: Super Bowl two years ago. I mean, I don't know

380
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Speaker 3: if Jared Goff is the answer. He did not have

381
00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:06,080
Speaker 3: a great year, but the Rams lost a lot of

382
00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:08,520
Speaker 3: close games this season. They were pretty competitive in just

383
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Speaker 3: about every single game that they played.

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Speaker 2: And I mean that is a.

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Speaker 3: Very tough division obviously that they're in with the Seahawks

386
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Speaker 3: and the forty nine ers and the Young Cardinals as well,

387
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Speaker 3: so that, I mean, that's arguably the best division in football.

388
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Speaker 2: So it's going to be hard to win that division.

389
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Speaker 3: But as far as the odds go, I mean, I

390
00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:26,440
Speaker 3: think the Rams hold a little bit of value too.

391
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I could see that. My big thing with them

392
00:16:28,400 --> 00:16:31,600
Speaker 1: is they just they're so hamstrung by the cap, right,

393
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Speaker 1: I mean, you know, golf steal it's going to be

394
00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:35,800
Speaker 1: so hard for them to really kind of, you know,

395
00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:38,320
Speaker 1: boost up the offensive line, which they definitely need to do,

396
00:16:38,400 --> 00:16:42,080
Speaker 1: because that's really the difference in how GoF plays when

397
00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:44,920
Speaker 1: he is protected versus not is really striking. I kind

398
00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:47,040
Speaker 1: of like the Seahawks a little more, which is around

399
00:16:47,080 --> 00:16:49,000
Speaker 1: the same adds at plus nine to fifty there, just

400
00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:51,840
Speaker 1: because I do think it's talk right now. But that's

401
00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:54,560
Speaker 1: all we have is talk is Russell Wilson basically being like,

402
00:16:54,680 --> 00:16:57,320
Speaker 1: you have to open up this offense. You need to

403
00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:00,520
Speaker 1: for sure, because it was the same thing every single game.

404
00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:03,440
Speaker 1: They run, run, run, Brian Schottenheimer wants to run NonStop,

405
00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:06,240
Speaker 1: and then if they fell behind or if Wilson was

406
00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:08,960
Speaker 1: able to just basically have the reins taken off, then

407
00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:11,000
Speaker 1: he did some great things. So I think if they're

408
00:17:11,040 --> 00:17:13,320
Speaker 1: able to, you know, add a few pieces, if they

409
00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:15,200
Speaker 1: can hold on to Clowney, if they can add a

410
00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:18,280
Speaker 1: few pieces, if they changed their offensive philosophy their team,

411
00:17:18,320 --> 00:17:21,919
Speaker 1: that could certainly, in my mind, have some value at

412
00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:24,320
Speaker 1: plus nine to fifty. But I actually want to talk

413
00:17:24,359 --> 00:17:27,840
Speaker 1: about two real long shots, one of which you're just

414
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Speaker 1: gonna dismiss out right. I'm wondering about the other one.

415
00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:32,879
Speaker 1: The other one is the Bucks. You've obviously got this

416
00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:36,440
Speaker 1: quarterback situation that's unclear. It might be James Winston, it

417
00:17:36,520 --> 00:17:38,800
Speaker 1: might be Philip Rivers. He packed up his whole team

418
00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:41,800
Speaker 1: and moved him down to Florida. You know, the offensive

419
00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:45,640
Speaker 1: system worked, that wasn't the issue. The issue on offense

420
00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:48,359
Speaker 1: was the fact that Jamis Winston turned the ball over

421
00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:51,399
Speaker 1: eight thousand times and it was just difficult to overcome that.

422
00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:55,240
Speaker 1: But the defense is really the thing here because quietly

423
00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:57,040
Speaker 1: over the second half of the season, sort of like

424
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Speaker 1: the Falcons, the defense, which was abysmal at the start

425
00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:02,840
Speaker 1: the past defense really turn things around over the second

426
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Speaker 1: half of the season. If they can build on that,

427
00:18:05,119 --> 00:18:07,240
Speaker 1: and if they can kind of whoever is going to

428
00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:09,240
Speaker 1: be a quarterback find a way to limit the turnovers.

429
00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:11,879
Speaker 1: They still have the elite receivers. Ronald Jones, you know,

430
00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:14,800
Speaker 1: kind of emerging. He looked better down the stretch. They

431
00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:17,880
Speaker 1: are a team that I think could threaten. That's particularly

432
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Speaker 1: the part of me. That's particularly the case if Drew

433
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Speaker 1: Brees retires, which I think is really in play here.

434
00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:28,040
Speaker 1: He may not, but if he does, you know, they're

435
00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:31,480
Speaker 1: in a tough division. Anyway, because you know, we've talked

436
00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:34,199
Speaker 1: about the Falcons, of course, but the Buck struck me

437
00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:36,280
Speaker 1: plus twenty two hundred, those are pretty long odds. With

438
00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:38,440
Speaker 1: another year in AARAN system. They strike me as a

439
00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:39,680
Speaker 1: team that could have some value there.

440
00:18:40,520 --> 00:18:43,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't hate that pick at all. Yeah.

441
00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:45,320
Speaker 3: I mean, like like you said, it comes down to

442
00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:47,359
Speaker 3: James Winston. I mean, if they keep Jameis Winston, if

443
00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:49,080
Speaker 3: he's going to be their guy next year, I mean,

444
00:18:49,119 --> 00:18:50,760
Speaker 3: if if you look at his numbers, you just take

445
00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:54,360
Speaker 3: away the interceptions he was at an MVP caliber.

446
00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:56,520
Speaker 1: Seas and the fumbles and the fumbles of course forget

447
00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:56,919
Speaker 1: about that.

448
00:18:57,080 --> 00:18:59,320
Speaker 3: Well, yes, but you take it so you take away

449
00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:01,280
Speaker 3: his turnovers, like the rest of his numbers are almost

450
00:19:01,359 --> 00:19:04,560
Speaker 3: MVP calibers. So I don't know, because this has kind

451
00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:06,639
Speaker 3: of been the story of James Winston year after year

452
00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:08,280
Speaker 3: since has been in the league as the turnover So

453
00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:10,480
Speaker 3: I don't know if he can cut those out right,

454
00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:12,240
Speaker 3: But if he does, I mean watch out for the

455
00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:13,560
Speaker 3: Bucks shore twenty two to one.

456
00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:15,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah again, And for me, it's really much more

457
00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:18,240
Speaker 1: about the defense, you know, because again in the beginning

458
00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:20,320
Speaker 1: of the season, they were terrible, and they really really

459
00:19:20,320 --> 00:19:22,680
Speaker 1: pulled it together as a season went on. The other one,

460
00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:24,760
Speaker 1: I kind of like, again, this one. I mean, it's

461
00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:27,840
Speaker 1: it's it's one of the longest odds, But could be

462
00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:30,880
Speaker 1: the Cardinals. You know, You've got obviously Larry Fitzgerald back,

463
00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:33,240
Speaker 1: if all the receivers get a little bit healthy, You've

464
00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:36,000
Speaker 1: got Kyler Murray maybe taking a second you know, maybe

465
00:19:36,040 --> 00:19:38,960
Speaker 1: a giant leap in his second year. They've got a

466
00:19:39,040 --> 00:19:40,960
Speaker 1: high pick in the draft. So if they can add

467
00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:43,080
Speaker 1: to that defense, that's a team that I could see. Like,

468
00:19:43,119 --> 00:19:44,960
Speaker 1: you know, you get everyone's wanting to get the teams.

469
00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:46,240
Speaker 1: I mean the forty nine er, you get a team

470
00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:48,359
Speaker 1: that kind of you're just like, oh, well, they're not

471
00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:50,800
Speaker 1: very good, and then suddenly they come back the next

472
00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:52,960
Speaker 1: year and you're like, whoa, where did this come from?

473
00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:55,320
Speaker 1: I could see if the Cardinals have a bang up offseason,

474
00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:57,880
Speaker 1: they could do that. If Murray again takes that giant

475
00:19:57,960 --> 00:19:59,880
Speaker 1: leap in a second year. But that's a plus three.

476
00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:02,359
Speaker 1: That's the only reason why I take that. So I

477
00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:04,760
Speaker 1: assume that's one that even that those odds are probably

478
00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:06,960
Speaker 1: like not, man, where we're far away from that?

479
00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:09,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, I know, I'm staying away from that, I mean,

480
00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:12,000
Speaker 3: this is probably not a very popular opinion, But I'm

481
00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:14,480
Speaker 3: not a huge Kyler Murray believer. I'm not a huge

482
00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:16,520
Speaker 3: fan of his. I wasn't when he when he was

483
00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:19,359
Speaker 3: in college coming into the NFL. The big thing about

484
00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:21,840
Speaker 3: quarterbacks who can run the ball is whether or not

485
00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:24,600
Speaker 3: they use their feet to buy more time to find

486
00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:27,200
Speaker 3: guys downfield, or if they use their feet to more

487
00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:29,600
Speaker 3: look for a place to run with the ball. And

488
00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:31,679
Speaker 3: I find when Kyler Murray he looks back and he

489
00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:33,880
Speaker 3: sees his first read, and if his first read isn't open,

490
00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:36,080
Speaker 3: it it's like he shifts his glance down to right

491
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:37,440
Speaker 3: in front of him to see if he can find

492
00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:40,280
Speaker 3: a place to run with the ball instead of guys

493
00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:42,960
Speaker 3: Like we saw Lamar Jackson. Yes he did run with

494
00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:44,760
Speaker 3: the ball quite a bit, but he also used his

495
00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:47,120
Speaker 3: feet to buy more time in the backfield. And that's

496
00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:50,520
Speaker 3: what Patrick Mahomes is really good at with his athletic ability.

497
00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:53,720
Speaker 3: So if Kyler Murray can kind of use his athleticism

498
00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:55,800
Speaker 3: to more buy more time instead of finding a place

499
00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:58,520
Speaker 3: to run, then I'd start to like Kyler Murray a

500
00:20:58,520 --> 00:20:58,920
Speaker 3: little bit.

501
00:20:58,960 --> 00:20:59,920
Speaker 2: But I wasn't.

502
00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:01,760
Speaker 3: I wasn't a huge fan of him this year, but

503
00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:04,400
Speaker 3: I mean, he was a rookie, so he obviously still

504
00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:05,919
Speaker 3: has a lot to a lot of time to develop,

505
00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:07,320
Speaker 3: a lot of time to get used to the system

506
00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:11,200
Speaker 3: that Cliff Kingsbury offense. So yeah, I'm not ready to

507
00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:13,000
Speaker 3: buy stock and the Cardinals to quite yet though.

508
00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:15,119
Speaker 1: No, I think it's fair. Of course, Again, their odds

509
00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:18,640
Speaker 1: are pretty long for me. Again, it's mostly about on

510
00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:22,840
Speaker 1: predicated on Murray taking a giant leap into his next year.

511
00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:24,760
Speaker 1: All right, let's turn to the Super Bowl.

512
00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:24,920
Speaker 2: Here.

513
00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 1: We've got thirty two teams, so I'm not going to

514
00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:29,399
Speaker 1: list all their odds because that will take forever. You

515
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:33,040
Speaker 1: can assume essentially that the odds are roughly double what

516
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:36,320
Speaker 1: they were for winning either the AFC or the NFC. So,

517
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:38,680
Speaker 1: for example, the Chiefs were the favorite for the AFC

518
00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:41,800
Speaker 1: at plus three hundred there plus six hundred for the

519
00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:43,840
Speaker 1: Super Bowl. The Niners were plus five hundred for the

520
00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:46,480
Speaker 1: NFC there plus one thousand for the Super Bowl. The

521
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:49,360
Speaker 1: Redskins are plus ten thousand for the longest odds. I mean,

522
00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:51,919
Speaker 1: you want specifics, we can talk about them, but you know,

523
00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:55,600
Speaker 1: in essentially doubling the numbers, is there any value here

524
00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:58,200
Speaker 1: or is it really just essentially what we talked about

525
00:21:58,240 --> 00:21:59,520
Speaker 1: with the conference winners.

526
00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:02,119
Speaker 3: I mean, obviously a lot of it is the stuff

527
00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:03,720
Speaker 3: that we talked about in the Conference winners, But I

528
00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:06,639
Speaker 3: mean I think the Chiefs to hold value plus six hundred.

529
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:08,959
Speaker 3: I expect them to have a great year next season,

530
00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:12,359
Speaker 3: and if they do, I mean, their odds are only

531
00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:14,480
Speaker 3: going to get shorter once the season goes on. So

532
00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:15,920
Speaker 3: if you're going to bet on the Chiefs at all,

533
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:17,359
Speaker 3: I think now would be the time to do to

534
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:19,199
Speaker 3: win the Super Bowl. And I mean there's a good

535
00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:21,320
Speaker 3: argument to be made that Patrick Mahomes is going to

536
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:22,880
Speaker 3: be one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

537
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:25,000
Speaker 2: He's the next generation, and.

538
00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:27,639
Speaker 3: Maybe the Chiefs are starting to slowly get into a

539
00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:29,720
Speaker 3: dynasty here. So if you want to bet on the

540
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:31,640
Speaker 3: Chiefs at all plus six hundred, I mean, I don't

541
00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:33,719
Speaker 3: think that's a bad bet. The other team that we

542
00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:35,760
Speaker 3: didn't talk about when talking about the NFC that I

543
00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:37,280
Speaker 3: don't hate their Super Bowl odds.

544
00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:39,560
Speaker 2: Here are the Eagles at seventeen to one to win

545
00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:40,160
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl.

546
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:43,840
Speaker 3: They had I mean just injuries on injuries on injuries

547
00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:46,040
Speaker 3: on injuries last year. This is already a team that

548
00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:48,520
Speaker 3: won the Super Bowl a few years back. Of course,

549
00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:51,120
Speaker 3: that was Nick Foles as quarterback. But I think Carson

550
00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,520
Speaker 3: Wentz got a lot of flat this year that I

551
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:56,720
Speaker 3: don't think he deserved. I think the Eagles can get

552
00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:59,040
Speaker 3: back there again this coming year if they can stay healthy.

553
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:01,720
Speaker 3: I like their coach. So the Eagles at seventeen to one,

554
00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:03,280
Speaker 3: I think they're worth a look as well if you're

555
00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:04,320
Speaker 3: looking at the NFC.

556
00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:06,480
Speaker 1: Teams, actually think that's a great call. Yeah, And look,

557
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:09,480
Speaker 1: Wentz played incredibly well this year, I thought, I mean,

558
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:13,160
Speaker 1: he had nobody to throw the ball to at any time,

559
00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:15,240
Speaker 1: so I think the way he really held it together

560
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:17,679
Speaker 1: is pretty great. The one thing I'll point out here is,

561
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:20,280
Speaker 1: you know, we talk about the consensus odds here, right,

562
00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:23,159
Speaker 1: and that takes into account a large number of books.

563
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:25,520
Speaker 1: But if you look at the individual books, you're gonna

564
00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:28,520
Speaker 1: find some discrepancies. Like the consensus odds on the Eagles

565
00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:31,240
Speaker 1: are plus seventeen hundred, but at bet MGM they have

566
00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:34,159
Speaker 1: them at plus fourteen hundred. At points Bet they have

567
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:36,879
Speaker 1: them at plus eighteen hundred. And that's actually one of

568
00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:39,679
Speaker 1: the things that I would point out because the Packers

569
00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:43,400
Speaker 1: at plus eighteen hundred are fine. I don't love them.

570
00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:45,960
Speaker 1: I assume that they're going to add another wide receiver

571
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:49,479
Speaker 1: for Aaron Rodgers, because you have to obviously, and if

572
00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:52,200
Speaker 1: they do, and if they can make another run, then

573
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:54,920
Speaker 1: every book that I'm looking at essentially has it at

574
00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:58,399
Speaker 1: eighteen hundred. But on FanDuel it's plus twenty two hundred

575
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:01,320
Speaker 1: that I like a lot, because that to me, once

576
00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:03,000
Speaker 1: you get to that level, I find you know, the

577
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:05,399
Speaker 1: difference between eighteen hundred and twenty two hundred is not

578
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:08,479
Speaker 1: insignificant whatsoever. So what I would do if I were

579
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:10,240
Speaker 1: you again, you can do it on bettingpros dot com.

580
00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:12,840
Speaker 1: We have the consensus lines and then you see every

581
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 1: odd basically available at the various books. Pick your best line.

582
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:18,160
Speaker 1: Make sure you can go out there because you might

583
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 1: be able to take advantage of every once in a while,

584
00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:23,880
Speaker 1: certain books have lines that you're like, oh, you know what,

585
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,760
Speaker 1: I'm lukewarm at it on the consensus line, but given

586
00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 1: that line for that particular book, I like it. But

587
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 1: in terms of the Eagles, pick yeah, I do like it.

588
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:32,840
Speaker 1: The other one that I would like, the Packers, if

589
00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:34,880
Speaker 1: you can get him at plus twenty two hundred over

590
00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:37,040
Speaker 1: at Fandel, I would do that at plus eighteen hundred,

591
00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:40,360
Speaker 1: I don't hate them either. For again, all of these

592
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:44,200
Speaker 1: are predicated on the team's taking a leap right. The Eagles,

593
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:46,520
Speaker 1: for example, they've got a I mean, I guess they

594
00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 1: could get by with just Deshaun Jackson, and you know him,

595
00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:51,800
Speaker 1: if he's healthy, he opens up that offense a lot

596
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:55,560
Speaker 1: and just basically having a generally healthy year. But the Packers,

597
00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:57,919
Speaker 1: if they add a wide receiver at this point, I

598
00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:00,199
Speaker 1: think they could be legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Obviously, they

599
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:02,680
Speaker 1: made it to the championship game this year, so plus

600
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:05,200
Speaker 1: eighteen hundred they're okay for me. Plus twenty two hundred,

601
00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:06,399
Speaker 1: I really like them.

602
00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:08,679
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I love the fact that you brought up

603
00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:09,720
Speaker 2: look around for different books.

604
00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 3: I know a lot of people don't necessarily like using

605
00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 3: different books during the season because a lot of the

606
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 3: time you can only get like half a point, maybe

607
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:19,600
Speaker 3: a full point difference on games. And as you're talking

608
00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 3: about that, I was looking. I went down to look

609
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:24,159
Speaker 3: at my Falcons odds. Most books have plus thirty three

610
00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:27,159
Speaker 3: hundred plus thirty five hundred. But then FanDuel, again, I

611
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:29,120
Speaker 3: don't know if the packers and the Falcons are giving

612
00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:31,640
Speaker 3: them a great a lot of value here Falcons plus

613
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:35,640
Speaker 3: thirty three hundred, most books FanDuel plus forty three hundred. Yeah,

614
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:37,600
Speaker 3: so that's a massive difference if we want to bet

615
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:40,040
Speaker 3: on the Falcons there to win the Super Bowl next year.

616
00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:42,239
Speaker 3: So yeah, I love that point that you brought up.

617
00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:43,840
Speaker 3: If you're going to place the future that you want

618
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 3: to definitely look for the best value possible.

619
00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:48,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, and again, I mean you look at it. FanDuel

620
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:50,639
Speaker 1: is really sort of the one that that's kind of

621
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:52,560
Speaker 1: the outlier with the consensus. I mean you look at

622
00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:55,160
Speaker 1: the Bucks. The consensus odds are plus five thousand. That's

623
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:57,720
Speaker 1: what you'll see at DraftKings Sports book. That's what you'll

624
00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 1: see it a lot. On Fandel It's only plus thirty

625
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:02,040
Speaker 1: five hundred to win the Super Bowl. So this is

626
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:04,800
Speaker 1: really a time where the books are going to be

627
00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:07,040
Speaker 1: as different as possible. Again, you're right you talk about that.

628
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 1: I wish it weren't necessarily the case, but for the

629
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 1: most part, the consensus line all of the books are

630
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:14,320
Speaker 1: really really close and the numbers. Now is a time

631
00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:16,200
Speaker 1: where if you look around and again just go to

632
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 1: bettingpros Dot com. We have all of them listed out

633
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:20,359
Speaker 1: right next to each other, so you can see you'll

634
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:22,560
Speaker 1: find a lot of differences in the various books. So

635
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 1: that is the time to take advantage of it. All right, Ian,

636
00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:27,760
Speaker 1: that is it for us. It has been great to

637
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:30,480
Speaker 1: talk a little bit of football for twenty twenty. Remind

638
00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:32,639
Speaker 1: everybody where they can find more of you and your work.

639
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:35,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, Dan, Yeah, So the best place to find

640
00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:37,840
Speaker 3: me is on Twitter. If anyone out there is on

641
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:41,639
Speaker 3: Twitter there my handle is Ian mac Osi a I

642
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 3: n m acos. Now that the NFL season is over,

643
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 3: I do a lot of college basketball and golf betting

644
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:51,439
Speaker 3: for the spring and then into the summer, So if

645
00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:53,160
Speaker 3: you're into that, be sure to give me a follow

646
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 3: on Twitter, and of course check us out at odd

647
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:56,359
Speaker 3: shark dot com.

648
00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 1: Awesome, Well, I look forward to talking again as always,

649
00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:02,920
Speaker 1: and probably it'll be about a different sport. But until then,

650
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:05,520
Speaker 1: take it easy and let's go Falcons.

651
00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:09,479
Speaker 2: That sounds good, Dan, take care all right.

652
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:11,439
Speaker 1: We're gonna switch gears here a bit and turn to

653
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:14,960
Speaker 1: the Academy Awards, which airs this Sunday night, February ninth.

654
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:17,600
Speaker 1: If you have ever listened to any of my other podcasts.

655
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:19,720
Speaker 1: Then you know that I'm a bit of a cinophile,

656
00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:22,399
Speaker 1: so I'm pretty excited about the segment, both because of

657
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:25,119
Speaker 1: the topic and because of our guest, Carrie Kurpin, this

658
00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:28,359
Speaker 1: CEO of Likable Media. You can find her on Twitter

659
00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 1: at Carrie Kurpein Now. I've known Carrie for years, and

660
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:33,520
Speaker 1: I've been eager to have her on ever since. We

661
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:36,200
Speaker 1: made a small wager about fifteen years ago on whether

662
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:38,640
Speaker 1: Crash or Broke Back Mountain would win Best Picture, and

663
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:41,119
Speaker 1: she won. So today I'm going to exact my revenge

664
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:42,920
Speaker 1: for that and the fact that she kicked me over

665
00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:46,440
Speaker 1: a table during a fight about Nintendo when I was eleven. Yes,

666
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:49,280
Speaker 1: she is the CEO of a social media company. Yes

667
00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:51,720
Speaker 1: she is an oscar betting expert, and yes she also

668
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:54,880
Speaker 1: happens to be my big sister. Carrie. Welcome to the show.

669
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:58,120
Speaker 4: How are you hey, Dan? Thrilled to be here. It's

670
00:27:58,160 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 4: been a long time since I pushed you over that table.

671
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:03,200
Speaker 1: I know our parents still referenced it pretty much every

672
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:05,359
Speaker 1: day of our lives, and it's really kind of shaped

673
00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 1: the way I am as a human. So I mean

674
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:10,119
Speaker 1: it's true. Yeah, you should go. Yeah, he had a

675
00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:12,480
Speaker 1: big impact on me. How about that, Carrie? This is

676
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:16,120
Speaker 1: actually our first non NFL segment ever on this podcast.

677
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 1: It is a ton of pressure. Are you ready? I'm

678
00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:19,640
Speaker 1: ready for the pressure.

679
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:19,880
Speaker 2: Man.

680
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:22,320
Speaker 4: I that was a big bet with Crash and I

681
00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:24,480
Speaker 4: was quite happy to win. And I'm I'm gonna hold

682
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:26,359
Speaker 4: myself to those same high standards now.

683
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:28,720
Speaker 1: Well, you better because I've been waiting for this moment

684
00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:30,560
Speaker 1: for a long time. Well, let us jump in here.

685
00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:32,240
Speaker 1: We're gonna break down some of the odds on the

686
00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:35,520
Speaker 1: quote unquote major awards. All right, that includes Best Picture,

687
00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:39,080
Speaker 1: all the acting awards, Director, and both screenplay, original and

688
00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:40,320
Speaker 1: adapt It does that work for you?

689
00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:41,600
Speaker 4: Totally works.

690
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:43,800
Speaker 1: As with anything you can bet on, the odds vary

691
00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:45,600
Speaker 1: depending on what book you go to. But we're going

692
00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:49,120
Speaker 1: to be using DraftKings for our odds because DraftKings not

693
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:52,320
Speaker 1: only offers odds on every major sport, but also now

694
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:54,640
Speaker 1: on the Academy Awards, and they are currently offering an

695
00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:58,400
Speaker 1: outstanding deal for new users. Place a five dollars wager

696
00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 1: on the winner of Best Picture, and if you win,

697
00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 1: you win fifty dollars regardless of the odds. That is it.

698
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:06,000
Speaker 1: And Carrie and I are gonna talk about the Best

699
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:09,120
Speaker 1: Picture category, so you're gonna have plenty of information. You

700
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:12,160
Speaker 1: can go to bettingpros dot com slash DraftKings for more details.

701
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:14,960
Speaker 1: But again, if you're a new DraftKings sportsbook user and

702
00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:17,800
Speaker 1: your first wager is a five dollars bet on Best Picture,

703
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:21,240
Speaker 1: and you're right, you'll win fifty dollars. All right, carry

704
00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 1: let's get into it. So I think when you look

705
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:27,560
Speaker 1: at historical awards director, Screenplay, and Picture, there's sometimes some

706
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 1: correlation because voters may like multiple movies, so they want

707
00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 1: to spread out the awards a little bit in those categories.

708
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:35,680
Speaker 1: So let's save those for last, because, as we'll talk about,

709
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 1: there's a bit of drama around those awards. So Lesson said,

710
00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:41,800
Speaker 1: start with the acting awards, and what's probably the one

711
00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 1: award where there is the least amount of drama, and

712
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:48,320
Speaker 1: that's Best Actor, where Walking Phoenix is an overwhelming favorite

713
00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:52,080
Speaker 1: at minus five thousand. Adam Driver is next at plus

714
00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:55,600
Speaker 1: one thousand, Leo DiCaprio at plus thirty three hundred, then

715
00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:59,640
Speaker 1: Antonio banderis at plus five thousand, and Jonathan Price at

716
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 1: plus sixty six hundred. This is the biggest favorite of

717
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:05,240
Speaker 1: the night, Joaquin Phoenix won both the Golden Globe and

718
00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 1: the SAG Award. Is there any chance that anyone other

719
00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:10,920
Speaker 1: than Joaquin Phoenix is going to go home with this award?

720
00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:15,120
Speaker 4: There's basically no chance, And the reason is that Hollywood

721
00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:18,320
Speaker 4: and the Academy really love a body transformation. If you

722
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:22,720
Speaker 4: want to get super fat or super skinny for any award,

723
00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:25,600
Speaker 4: you're basically upping your chances of winning by a lot.

724
00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:28,680
Speaker 4: And this was a huge physical transformation, not to mention

725
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:33,120
Speaker 4: a breathtaking performance. This is pretty much a lock. Only

726
00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:37,240
Speaker 4: a slight potential for Adam Driver because of how mesmerizing

727
00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:40,280
Speaker 4: he was in marriage story, But really Joaquin.

728
00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:43,480
Speaker 1: For the win. Yeah, I really Of all the awards,

729
00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:45,800
Speaker 1: there are a couple here that we'll talk about that realistically,

730
00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:48,040
Speaker 1: there's almost no chance that anybody else is gonna win

731
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:50,120
Speaker 1: except for the favorite. But this one I think is

732
00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 1: pretty much the lock of the night. And you mentioned

733
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 1: it method acting also, that's what they love. Apparently he

734
00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:59,080
Speaker 1: was basically the joker throughout filming this entire thing. That's

735
00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:01,160
Speaker 1: gonna do it and the body transformation you talked about

736
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:03,560
Speaker 1: it Raging Bull with Robert de Niro, the gaining weight

737
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:05,760
Speaker 1: to losing weight Daniel de Lewis, the way he basically

738
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:09,280
Speaker 1: transforms into the character. These types of performances are absolute lock,

739
00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:11,400
Speaker 1: and that is why the odds. He was an overwhelming

740
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:13,880
Speaker 1: favorite when the season started, but now it's basically a

741
00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:16,680
Speaker 1: complete lock. And with how little money you're gonna be

742
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:19,200
Speaker 1: able to win, it's really not even worth betting on.

743
00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:21,880
Speaker 1: And that makes a good point before we go on,

744
00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:26,560
Speaker 1: because let's explain this to Mom, who's undoubtedly listening today. Mom, Hi, Mom,

745
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:28,760
Speaker 1: how are you? Tears in her eyes at how successful

746
00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:31,600
Speaker 1: both their children are. When I say that Joaquin Phoenix

747
00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:34,760
Speaker 1: is at minus five thousand, that means that you would

748
00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 1: have to risk five thousand dollars just to win one

749
00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:40,680
Speaker 1: hundred dollars, or because Mom is not good with math,

750
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:43,880
Speaker 1: you'd have to risk fifty dollars to win one dollar,

751
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:46,840
Speaker 1: So that's an overwhelming favorite. When I say Jonathan Price

752
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:50,040
Speaker 1: is at plus sixty six hundred, that means he's essentially

753
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:52,880
Speaker 1: sixty six to one. If you risk one hundred dollars

754
00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:56,040
Speaker 1: and he won, you'd win sixty six hundred dollars. So

755
00:31:56,080 --> 00:31:59,320
Speaker 1: the chances are pretty minimal now, although Mom is undoubtedly

756
00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 1: still confused. I think everyone else probably gets it at

757
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:04,320
Speaker 1: this point. Let's stick with the male performances here and

758
00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 1: move on to supporting actor, where we also have an

759
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 1: overwhelming but not quite as overwhelming a favorite in Brad Pitt,

760
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:13,800
Speaker 1: who's at minus four thousand, Joe Peshi's next at plus

761
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:17,000
Speaker 1: twelve hundred, Al Pacino at plus twenty eight hundred, Tom

762
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 1: Hanks at plus thirty three hundred, and Anthony Hopkins at

763
00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:21,920
Speaker 1: plus five thousand. So how do you feel here? Is

764
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:24,720
Speaker 1: Pitt guaranteed the winner? Or what he is not?

765
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 4: He is not guaranteed. It is a strong favorite, but

766
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:31,840
Speaker 4: not a guarantee. Here's what will happen if, once upon

767
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:36,760
Speaker 4: a time in Hollywood takes it, which there is a possibility.

768
00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 1: That it does.

769
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:40,800
Speaker 4: Then I believe this could be spread out. It could

770
00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:43,360
Speaker 4: be a shocker, and you could say, Okay, that's gonna

771
00:32:43,360 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 4: win Best Picture, And you know what, we're gonna maybe

772
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 4: even give this to Tom Hanks. You know why, because

773
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:53,640
Speaker 4: Joile quene One, he's not that nice or likable. He's

774
00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:57,640
Speaker 4: seen as kind of this very troubled guy, and he

775
00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 4: won for this dark performance. Let's give it to Tom

776
00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 4: Hanks because everybody loves Tom Hanks, So that would be

777
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 4: a reach. I'm not saying it will happen, but I'm

778
00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:11,040
Speaker 4: saying that that's a philosophy that could if you were

779
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 4: somebody who wanted to bet and take.

780
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 1: A long shot. Interesting, well, Hank's. The one thing about Hank's, obviously,

781
00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:19,880
Speaker 1: is that his role as mister Rogers is essentially a

782
00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:22,400
Speaker 1: feel good role and the type of things that probably

783
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 1: Academy voters like to embrace, considering especially the time that

784
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:28,280
Speaker 1: we're in where you know, everybody seems to be mad

785
00:33:28,280 --> 00:33:30,800
Speaker 1: at everybody. So Hanks really in that sort of role

786
00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:34,200
Speaker 1: would make an interesting choice. I think for me, though, man,

787
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:36,480
Speaker 1: you know, Pitt has won the Globe and the SAG.

788
00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:38,400
Speaker 1: Now you mentioned a good point, and we're going to

789
00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:40,120
Speaker 1: get into this little later. And one of the reasons

790
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 1: why I wanted to do the Screenplay Awards, the Director Awards,

791
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:45,320
Speaker 1: and then Best Picture last is because to me, I

792
00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:48,720
Speaker 1: feel like that is more where Academy voters like to

793
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:50,959
Speaker 1: spread things out, right, like, yeah, we're going to talk

794
00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:54,360
Speaker 1: about this. You've got nineteen seventeen, You've got Parasite, and

795
00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:56,760
Speaker 1: you've got Once upon a Time in Hollywood. Those three

796
00:33:56,840 --> 00:34:00,280
Speaker 1: movies are really kind of you know, vying for the

797
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:03,200
Speaker 1: big prizes in it. And it's a fair point, but

798
00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:05,800
Speaker 1: I think for me, and again, it's he's an overwhelming

799
00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:08,520
Speaker 1: favorite for a reason, obviously, and one of these overwhelming

800
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:10,640
Speaker 1: favorites almost certainly is going to lose because that's just

801
00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:13,279
Speaker 1: kind of the way it works, is that. I think

802
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:15,040
Speaker 1: if Pitt wins, I'm not sure whether or not it

803
00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:17,680
Speaker 1: has an impact, but it would be interesting whether or

804
00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 1: not they would say, you know what, we're going to

805
00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:22,399
Speaker 1: give these other awards necessarily to once upon a time

806
00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:24,040
Speaker 1: in Hollywood, So why don't we give this to sort

807
00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:26,560
Speaker 1: of the feel good guy? And you're right, everybody loves

808
00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:29,320
Speaker 1: Tom Hanks. He's won two Academy Awards, although not in

809
00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:32,479
Speaker 1: twenty five years of this, that's correct, which has.

810
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:33,359
Speaker 4: Been a long time.

811
00:34:33,440 --> 00:34:35,839
Speaker 1: It's been a long time. Mister Rogers, right, who doesn't

812
00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:36,600
Speaker 1: love mister Rodgers.

813
00:34:36,680 --> 00:34:39,560
Speaker 4: Who doesn't love mister Rogers. But the thing about Brad Pitt, now,

814
00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:43,319
Speaker 4: of course, I as a marketer, always think about the

815
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:46,399
Speaker 4: people behind the Academy who are producing the show, who

816
00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:48,799
Speaker 4: want to make it as watchable as possible, And right

817
00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:52,840
Speaker 4: now everyone is talking about Brad Pitt. Why because Jennifer

818
00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:56,040
Speaker 4: Eniston has had a resurgence because they're both single, because

819
00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:59,120
Speaker 4: he's sober, So for that reason alone, people want to

820
00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:01,640
Speaker 4: see him get up there, don't you know. Never mind

821
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 4: the fact that he did have a great performance in

822
00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:05,960
Speaker 4: this film, but people want to see him get up

823
00:35:05,960 --> 00:35:09,120
Speaker 4: there because they're looking for those pictures. And the shot

824
00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:12,239
Speaker 4: of Jennifer's face as he walks up to accept.

825
00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:15,080
Speaker 1: The award also fair. And again he did give great

826
00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:17,440
Speaker 1: speeches it. I believe the SAG Awards, you know, and

827
00:35:17,520 --> 00:35:19,560
Speaker 1: that actually carries a little bit of weight because they're like,

828
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:22,200
Speaker 1: all right, you know, Joe Peshy, I believe again, who's

829
00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:24,360
Speaker 1: the second favorite in this at plus twelve hundred for

830
00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:28,560
Speaker 1: the Irishman? When he won his award for good Fellas,

831
00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:31,400
Speaker 1: I believe his Oscar speech was thanks and then he

832
00:35:31,480 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 1: walked off. So I don't think, really you know that

833
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:35,880
Speaker 1: that sticks in Oscar voters mindset.

834
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:39,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, yes, and they don't. They don't reward people who

835
00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:42,799
Speaker 4: hate the shows. Remember Sean Penn being totally silenced for

836
00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:45,120
Speaker 4: such a long time because he just refused to attend.

837
00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:47,319
Speaker 1: That's true, but he did eventually win, of course, I

838
00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:50,560
Speaker 1: believe twice if memory service, But either way. Look, I

839
00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:53,160
Speaker 1: think you know we agree Brad Pitt is the overwhelming favorite,

840
00:35:53,160 --> 00:35:54,719
Speaker 1: but I like I like the thought that you know,

841
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:57,880
Speaker 1: Hanks is the type of guy who, in this climate

842
00:35:57,920 --> 00:35:59,919
Speaker 1: in particular, is somebody who could sneak in there. And again,

843
00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:02,879
Speaker 1: plus thirty three hundred doesn't take a particularly large bet

844
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:05,000
Speaker 1: to win you some money. Correct. Let's move on here

845
00:36:05,000 --> 00:36:08,200
Speaker 1: to best Supporting Actress. Again, we have another very similar favorite,

846
00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:11,600
Speaker 1: Laura Dern for Marriage Story at minus four thousand, Margot

847
00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:15,280
Speaker 1: Robbie at plus twelve hundred, Florence Pugh at plus fourteen hundred,

848
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:19,160
Speaker 1: Scarlett Johansson double nominee here she's at plus twenty five hundred,

849
00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:22,320
Speaker 1: and my secret crush Kathy Baits at plus five thousand.

850
00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:25,359
Speaker 1: So again we haven't overwhelming. You knew that, right, I mean,

851
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:27,640
Speaker 1: mom knows like I secretly, I am in love with

852
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:30,160
Speaker 1: Kathy Baits. That's a story for another time. Laura Dern

853
00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 1: at minus four thousand, overwhelming favorite. She has won both

854
00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:36,759
Speaker 1: the Golden Globe and the SAG. I loved her performance

855
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:39,640
Speaker 1: in Marriage Story. She sort of played that, you know

856
00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:42,400
Speaker 1: that lawyer, and again I was a lawyer, so you

857
00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:44,640
Speaker 1: know we have that where even I can embrace it

858
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:47,000
Speaker 1: and be like, man, you hated her, but you loved

859
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:48,759
Speaker 1: her at the same time. So what do you think here?

860
00:36:48,800 --> 00:36:50,719
Speaker 1: Is Laura Drn? Is anybody else worth betting on? Or

861
00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:52,200
Speaker 1: is this during? Yeah?

862
00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:52,799
Speaker 2: This is a lock.

863
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:55,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I agree with that. And again, Lord Dern,

864
00:36:56,080 --> 00:36:57,759
Speaker 1: she's kind of beloved by the Academy. She hasn't won

865
00:36:57,800 --> 00:37:00,239
Speaker 1: an oscar, but she's been nominated a few times. And

866
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:02,799
Speaker 1: you know what's funny is that originally Florence Pugh was

867
00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:06,279
Speaker 1: very close in odds when you know they first opened up.

868
00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:08,600
Speaker 1: But since then, Durren's got so much momentum. So this

869
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:10,840
Speaker 1: is just a lock. Take Dern, don't look it.

870
00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:11,319
Speaker 2: It's a lock.

871
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:13,839
Speaker 4: I might throw fifty dollars on Kathy Bates though, just to.

872
00:37:13,760 --> 00:37:16,279
Speaker 1: Support your crush. I like it, all right, I'm in

873
00:37:16,320 --> 00:37:18,040
Speaker 1: with you. We'll double it up, We'll go all right,

874
00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:20,520
Speaker 1: let's move on to Best Actress here. This is another

875
00:37:20,560 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 1: one with a clear favorite. But I have certain opinions

876
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:25,560
Speaker 1: on this one, which we'll talk about. Reneesel Wigger again

877
00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:28,640
Speaker 1: at minus four thousand, just like Laura Dern, just like

878
00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:31,759
Speaker 1: Brad Pitt, Scarlett Johanson. Again, I said double nominee plus

879
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:34,719
Speaker 1: eleven hundred. Next, that's followed by Sir Sha Ronan and

880
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:38,440
Speaker 1: Cynthia Arrivo at plus twenty five hundred and Charlie's theron

881
00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:41,480
Speaker 1: plus thirty three hundred. Again, like all the other favorites,

882
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:44,520
Speaker 1: reneesel Wiger won the Golden Globe and the sag Award.

883
00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:46,160
Speaker 1: So tell me what do you think is gonna happen here?

884
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:46,880
Speaker 2: Hello?

885
00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:50,960
Speaker 4: This is a luck? Why? Because she totally transformed her appearing.

886
00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:54,640
Speaker 4: She looked just like Judy Garland Renee is a lock.

887
00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:57,600
Speaker 4: She looked like her, she sounded like her, she was her.

888
00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:01,160
Speaker 4: This is a comeback story. The Adamy loves it, and

889
00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:01,839
Speaker 4: she is a lock.

890
00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:06,040
Speaker 1: Okay, let me make the case for one other person.

891
00:38:06,200 --> 00:38:08,760
Speaker 1: I know. Look, we have to make a case. Okay,

892
00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:10,160
Speaker 1: I can't wait to hear who You're all right? Well,

893
00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:12,520
Speaker 1: who would you think? You're? My sister? You know me? Well,

894
00:38:12,719 --> 00:38:15,640
Speaker 1: well something I'm gonna go with Scarlett Johanson, Sara Sharonan,

895
00:38:15,760 --> 00:38:17,600
Speaker 1: Cynthia Rivo where Charlie's the throng.

896
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:21,839
Speaker 4: God, I can make an argument for all of them

897
00:38:21,880 --> 00:38:25,480
Speaker 4: except for scar Joe. I could say Sarah Sharonan, who

898
00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:27,800
Speaker 4: I always say her name incorrectly, did not get the director.

899
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:29,880
Speaker 4: Not so she should get it. I would say Cynthia

900
00:38:29,960 --> 00:38:32,960
Speaker 4: Arrivo had a phenomenal performance and of course would help

901
00:38:33,040 --> 00:38:36,520
Speaker 4: represent the African American community with Oscar being oh so white.

902
00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:39,960
Speaker 4: And then Charlie's of course supports my physical transformation story

903
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:42,400
Speaker 4: and actually looked exactly like Megan Kelly.

904
00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:44,959
Speaker 1: She did yes, absolutely well. For me, it's a revo

905
00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:48,120
Speaker 1: and it's not. Look, Zellwegger is the overwhelming favorite. I'm

906
00:38:48,160 --> 00:38:50,320
Speaker 1: gonna put a taste where I can on a revote

907
00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:52,440
Speaker 1: just again, you mentioned it. It is the story of

908
00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:55,880
Speaker 1: Harriet Tubman. It is a historical figure. It is somebody

909
00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:59,279
Speaker 1: who's extremely important. And look, it's just a fact of

910
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:01,719
Speaker 1: life that the can me gets a great deal of

911
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:04,560
Speaker 1: blowback when there aren't a lot of you know, African

912
00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 1: American nominees, and you know, for women, we'll talk about

913
00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:09,160
Speaker 1: that with Little Women, with Gretg Gerwig not getting the

914
00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:12,120
Speaker 1: best director, Get me started. They're well, you're gonna have

915
00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:14,040
Speaker 1: to get started, because we'll talk about it. But there

916
00:39:14,080 --> 00:39:16,839
Speaker 1: are you know, these these when when you're at a

917
00:39:17,160 --> 00:39:19,840
Speaker 1: something like this, I could see Zewig getting it. Remember

918
00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:22,760
Speaker 1: though she's won before. She's got one for cold Mountains.

919
00:39:22,800 --> 00:39:24,919
Speaker 1: So you know, it's not as if this would be like, well,

920
00:39:25,000 --> 00:39:26,719
Speaker 1: you know, she's had this long, storied career. We have

921
00:39:26,760 --> 00:39:29,520
Speaker 1: to honor her. It is something where men, if somebody

922
00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:32,240
Speaker 1: else is gonna win, to me, Cynthia Rivo, Harriet Tubman,

923
00:39:32,320 --> 00:39:34,480
Speaker 1: that's just you know, a historical figure. I feel like,

924
00:39:34,719 --> 00:39:36,960
Speaker 1: usually a good shot for Best Actress. So for me, yes,

925
00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:40,000
Speaker 1: who do I expect to win? Rense Elwiger, I agree,

926
00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:42,359
Speaker 1: But if I were to pick somebody else, it would

927
00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:44,960
Speaker 1: be Cynthia Rivo because I do think, given all of

928
00:39:45,000 --> 00:39:47,239
Speaker 1: these outside factors, that she's the only other one who

929
00:39:47,239 --> 00:39:47,760
Speaker 1: has a shot.

930
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:51,400
Speaker 4: Well, I will tell you this. I absolutely loved Renees

931
00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:55,400
Speaker 4: Elwiger's performance. However, I also loved Cynthia Rivo's performance, and

932
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:58,160
Speaker 4: if she won, I would jump for joy. Now you're

933
00:39:58,160 --> 00:39:59,640
Speaker 4: giving me a bet that I think I'm going to take.

934
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:01,640
Speaker 1: There, I love it. And also, by the way, I

935
00:40:01,640 --> 00:40:04,920
Speaker 1: have a writing candidate to get Kathy Baits also nominated.

936
00:40:04,480 --> 00:40:06,520
Speaker 4: For Super Kathy Baits for all categories.

937
00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:11,280
Speaker 1: Well a Best Actor, don't forget about that. Okay, yeah, correct,

938
00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:13,839
Speaker 1: Let's go real quick to adapted screenplay, because I don't

939
00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:15,840
Speaker 1: think this moves the needle much with Best Picture. I

940
00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:18,880
Speaker 1: think whoever wins the original screenplay that's really more important.

941
00:40:18,880 --> 00:40:21,960
Speaker 1: But let's go here. Jojo Rabbit actually the favorite at

942
00:40:22,000 --> 00:40:24,120
Speaker 1: minus two hundred. So I mean we were talking about

943
00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:26,840
Speaker 1: the actors minus four thousand, minus five thousand. This is

944
00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:28,640
Speaker 1: all the way minus two hundred. So this is certainly

945
00:40:28,680 --> 00:40:31,520
Speaker 1: a much closer race. Little Women second at plus one

946
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:33,400
Speaker 1: point fifty. Then you got to jump down to the

947
00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:35,719
Speaker 1: Irishman at plus eight hundred, then a longer jump to

948
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:38,480
Speaker 1: the Joker at plus four thousand, and the two Popes

949
00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:40,880
Speaker 1: at plus five thousand. I'm going to say this, this

950
00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:43,640
Speaker 1: has shifted in recent weeks. Okay, Little Women was the

951
00:40:43,640 --> 00:40:47,120
Speaker 1: favorite for a while. Then Jojo Rabbit taiko wa tit.

952
00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:50,560
Speaker 1: She won the he won the Writer's Guild Awards. So

953
00:40:51,000 --> 00:40:53,520
Speaker 1: you know that really is what has moved these odds

954
00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:56,120
Speaker 1: here towards Jojo Rabbit. So how do you feel about

955
00:40:56,160 --> 00:40:56,439
Speaker 1: this one?

956
00:40:57,719 --> 00:40:59,719
Speaker 4: If I were betting on my favorite, I would take

957
00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 4: the long shot for the two popes. However, here I

958
00:41:03,080 --> 00:41:06,960
Speaker 4: would bet Little Women because they have to win after

959
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:10,200
Speaker 4: the huge director snub. I mean to me, it's like

960
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:12,800
Speaker 4: that they have to win.

961
00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:15,520
Speaker 1: And not only that, I mean, this isn't just honoring

962
00:41:15,560 --> 00:41:18,920
Speaker 1: the movie. This is Gerwig herself, right, who was exactly

963
00:41:19,000 --> 00:41:22,239
Speaker 1: who's one of the writers who's nominated for screenplay. Yeah,

964
00:41:22,360 --> 00:41:25,040
Speaker 1: I'm surprised here, honestly, Like I get the Writer's Guild

965
00:41:25,040 --> 00:41:28,000
Speaker 1: of America is you know, fairly predictive, and it contains

966
00:41:28,000 --> 00:41:29,439
Speaker 1: a big body of people who are going to vote

967
00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:31,960
Speaker 1: on the stuff. So I understand why it moved the odds.

968
00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:35,000
Speaker 1: But in the end, they're Little Women's coming away with something.

969
00:41:35,000 --> 00:41:37,360
Speaker 1: And I don't you know, they've got all the actress nominations.

970
00:41:37,400 --> 00:41:39,880
Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna win any but this one.

971
00:41:40,040 --> 00:41:42,120
Speaker 1: Come on, it's Greta Gerwig. There was all the talk

972
00:41:42,160 --> 00:41:44,799
Speaker 1: how she didn't get a director nomination. I really think

973
00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:47,560
Speaker 1: and you're getting plus you know, on your money, not overwhelming,

974
00:41:47,600 --> 00:41:49,160
Speaker 1: but the fact that it's not the favorite, I agree

975
00:41:49,160 --> 00:41:50,799
Speaker 1: with you completely. I think Little Women's going to take

976
00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 1: those home.

977
00:41:51,560 --> 00:41:53,880
Speaker 4: I'm trying to think about why the odds shifted, and

978
00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:55,920
Speaker 4: I guess it could be that Jojo Rabbit Now is

979
00:41:55,960 --> 00:42:00,560
Speaker 4: widely released over OTT so it may be gain buzz

980
00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:04,800
Speaker 4: or gaining momentum. It certainly is a very innovative story.

981
00:42:05,320 --> 00:42:08,600
Speaker 4: But I just think too. You can't do gredit dirty

982
00:42:08,680 --> 00:42:09,040
Speaker 4: like that.

983
00:42:09,040 --> 00:42:11,080
Speaker 1: That's not right. No, I completely agree with you.

984
00:42:11,120 --> 00:42:11,160
Speaker 2: No.

985
00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:14,520
Speaker 1: And again, when these odds first opened, when the Academy

986
00:42:14,560 --> 00:42:18,680
Speaker 1: was first nominade, I believe that Jojo Rabbit, that White

987
00:42:18,680 --> 00:42:22,160
Speaker 1: Titi was third in the odds. Originally, like this was,

988
00:42:22,440 --> 00:42:24,120
Speaker 1: this was not a favorite. And again it really has

989
00:42:24,160 --> 00:42:26,759
Speaker 1: moved significantly. And one of the things that's weird about

990
00:42:26,760 --> 00:42:29,239
Speaker 1: the Oscars this here is it's so early, right, because

991
00:42:29,280 --> 00:42:32,640
Speaker 1: I think eventually what happened is that the odds, you know, people,

992
00:42:33,480 --> 00:42:35,800
Speaker 1: it became a lot easier to protect, except Best Picture,

993
00:42:35,840 --> 00:42:37,520
Speaker 1: and we'll talk about that in a bit, but it

994
00:42:37,600 --> 00:42:39,719
Speaker 1: became much easier to pretict. Now that's earlier, there's a

995
00:42:39,719 --> 00:42:41,920
Speaker 1: little uncertainty. So it's nice on the move. So we

996
00:42:41,960 --> 00:42:44,520
Speaker 1: are in agreement here. We both think that Little Women

997
00:42:44,840 --> 00:42:47,080
Speaker 1: is going to take home Adapted screenplay, So let us

998
00:42:47,080 --> 00:42:49,399
Speaker 1: move on to original screenplay. This is a good one here.

999
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:53,160
Speaker 1: It's really, you know, a race between two and that's Parasite,

1000
00:42:53,160 --> 00:42:55,960
Speaker 1: which is the favorite at minus two hundred versus Once

1001
00:42:56,040 --> 00:42:58,640
Speaker 1: upon a Time in Hollywood, which is at plus one fifty.

1002
00:42:58,680 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 1: Then you jump down a bit to marriage story, also

1003
00:43:00,760 --> 00:43:05,040
Speaker 1: an incredibly well written film at plus oney nineteen seventeen

1004
00:43:05,360 --> 00:43:08,240
Speaker 1: at plus two thousand, and knives out at plus three thousand.

1005
00:43:08,280 --> 00:43:10,320
Speaker 1: The one thing I will say, nineteen seventeen, a movie

1006
00:43:10,360 --> 00:43:13,400
Speaker 1: that I loved, has like eight words of dialogue, so

1007
00:43:13,440 --> 00:43:15,360
Speaker 1: it's a little surprising to me that it was nominated

1008
00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:17,560
Speaker 1: for Original Screenplay. But what do you think here? This

1009
00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:18,200
Speaker 1: is a big one.

1010
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:23,120
Speaker 4: This is all about the link between these awards. So

1011
00:43:24,120 --> 00:43:28,160
Speaker 4: whichever there is a chance here of the screenplay best

1012
00:43:28,160 --> 00:43:31,960
Speaker 4: Picture split right, So if Parasite doesn't win Best Picture,

1013
00:43:32,360 --> 00:43:36,440
Speaker 4: it will almost certainly win Original Screenplay. It's almost like

1014
00:43:37,040 --> 00:43:39,760
Speaker 4: it's gonna be the in my mind, the runner up prize.

1015
00:43:39,800 --> 00:43:42,480
Speaker 4: Whoever you think is going to win Best Picture, you

1016
00:43:42,560 --> 00:43:45,919
Speaker 4: have to pick the other for original screenplay, right.

1017
00:43:46,000 --> 00:43:48,120
Speaker 1: And the thing is, because we'll get to this too.

1018
00:43:48,360 --> 00:43:51,520
Speaker 1: You could see, okay, let's split up screenplay and Best

1019
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:55,160
Speaker 1: Picture and Best Director. The problem is, as we'll get

1020
00:43:55,200 --> 00:43:58,400
Speaker 1: to of the these three kind of major most predictive awards,

1021
00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:01,120
Speaker 1: best Director is pretty much a lock. I mean, I'm

1022
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:03,959
Speaker 1: going to be shocked in Sam Mendy for nineteen seventy

1023
00:44:03,960 --> 00:44:06,879
Speaker 1: that's at so that's almost certainly doing it. So if

1024
00:44:06,880 --> 00:44:09,720
Speaker 1: you have that. I will be shocked it could happen,

1025
00:44:09,800 --> 00:44:11,640
Speaker 1: and we'll talk about why in a minute. But once

1026
00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:14,400
Speaker 1: upon a time in Hollywood could win Best Picture. But

1027
00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:16,680
Speaker 1: I think Parasite has just been gaining steam. And we

1028
00:44:16,719 --> 00:44:18,920
Speaker 1: will talk about the text that you sent me roughly

1029
00:44:18,920 --> 00:44:22,120
Speaker 1: two months ago predicting that Parasite was going to win

1030
00:44:22,200 --> 00:44:24,000
Speaker 1: Best Picture before I had ever even heard of it.

1031
00:44:24,040 --> 00:44:26,160
Speaker 1: But I will say this, once upon a Time in

1032
00:44:26,200 --> 00:44:29,200
Speaker 1: Hollywood won the Golden Globe Award. It was not even

1033
00:44:29,360 --> 00:44:32,360
Speaker 1: nominated for Best Screenplay for the Writer's Guild Award. That

1034
00:44:32,480 --> 00:44:36,879
Speaker 1: is really, really weird, and I can't exactly figure it out.

1035
00:44:37,160 --> 00:44:41,040
Speaker 1: Parasite did win that award, So I mean, for me.

1036
00:44:41,440 --> 00:44:44,400
Speaker 4: You can't figure out why it wasn't nominated. There you're saying,

1037
00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:45,960
Speaker 4: not why it's nominated here?

1038
00:44:46,080 --> 00:44:48,680
Speaker 1: Oh correct, yes, absolutely no, no, no, no, I have absolutely

1039
00:44:48,719 --> 00:44:51,520
Speaker 1: no problem. I apologize for it being nominated here. But

1040
00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:54,640
Speaker 1: the fact especially it won the Golden Globe, and the

1041
00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:56,480
Speaker 1: Golden Globe is kind of an outlier, right, It's not

1042
00:44:56,520 --> 00:44:59,879
Speaker 1: all that predictive. It's a completely different body. The how

1043
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:03,040
Speaker 1: press association form pressociations, so it's a completely different body.

1044
00:45:03,280 --> 00:45:05,680
Speaker 1: But in the end to not even be nominated for

1045
00:45:05,719 --> 00:45:08,319
Speaker 1: their Writers Skilled Award really surprised me. Again, that's a

1046
00:45:08,360 --> 00:45:13,080
Speaker 1: big voting block of this award, So for me, I

1047
00:45:13,160 --> 00:45:15,600
Speaker 1: think I'll go with Parasite. But you know, and that

1048
00:45:15,760 --> 00:45:17,840
Speaker 1: is actually one of the reasons why I do think

1049
00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:19,840
Speaker 1: to the extent they do want to honor them. And

1050
00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:21,960
Speaker 1: I said, for the most part, they don't go to actors.

1051
00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:24,440
Speaker 1: But Pitt I think is pretty much going to win

1052
00:45:24,480 --> 00:45:26,439
Speaker 1: that award, and that could be their way of saying, Okay,

1053
00:45:26,440 --> 00:45:28,120
Speaker 1: there you go, there's that award. You know what I mean?

1054
00:45:28,880 --> 00:45:29,239
Speaker 2: I do.

1055
00:45:29,680 --> 00:45:32,840
Speaker 4: I think because I felt so strongly about Parasite early

1056
00:45:33,040 --> 00:45:35,960
Speaker 4: and you have saved the text where I immediately felt

1057
00:45:36,040 --> 00:45:37,920
Speaker 4: that this was something that was going to gain steam.

1058
00:45:38,400 --> 00:45:41,480
Speaker 4: I am therefore not going to put it for Best Screenplay.

1059
00:45:41,560 --> 00:45:44,160
Speaker 4: I am going to put for Original Screenplay. Once upon

1060
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:46,440
Speaker 4: a Time in Hollywood. Now, not only was that a

1061
00:45:46,520 --> 00:45:49,360
Speaker 4: very interesting story, but the way that it was told

1062
00:45:50,120 --> 00:45:53,200
Speaker 4: was fascinating, and the way that it's tied in reality

1063
00:45:53,280 --> 00:45:56,560
Speaker 4: with an alternate reality of these kind of Hollywood legends

1064
00:45:56,560 --> 00:46:01,440
Speaker 4: and long history in Hollywood. I think that Hollywood is

1065
00:46:01,440 --> 00:46:03,600
Speaker 4: in love with itself. The Academy is in love with itself.

1066
00:46:03,640 --> 00:46:06,960
Speaker 4: And so this will win something, and I think this

1067
00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:07,840
Speaker 4: is where it's going to go.

1068
00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:11,800
Speaker 1: Well, it certainly would make sense if this one original

1069
00:46:12,000 --> 00:46:15,240
Speaker 1: if one supon time in Hollywood won Original Screenplay nineteen seventeen,

1070
00:46:15,280 --> 00:46:17,560
Speaker 1: Sam and he's one Best Director, and then Parisi wins

1071
00:46:17,560 --> 00:46:19,040
Speaker 1: Best Picture, it would be a way to honor all

1072
00:46:19,080 --> 00:46:19,359
Speaker 1: of them.

1073
00:46:19,400 --> 00:46:21,520
Speaker 4: So I don't really does it happen, Dan, does that

1074
00:46:21,600 --> 00:46:24,680
Speaker 4: happen usually? You know, you have this long history of

1075
00:46:24,719 --> 00:46:26,399
Speaker 4: knowing every Oscar winner under the sun.

1076
00:46:26,719 --> 00:46:29,080
Speaker 1: That's true. The one thing is that things have changed

1077
00:46:29,120 --> 00:46:31,799
Speaker 1: a little bit, in part because of the fact that

1078
00:46:31,880 --> 00:46:35,560
Speaker 1: it went from being five nominated Best Pictures, where the

1079
00:46:35,680 --> 00:46:39,000
Speaker 1: universe was always much smaller, to nine and or ten

1080
00:46:39,200 --> 00:46:41,000
Speaker 1: up to ten and this year it's line. So it

1081
00:46:41,680 --> 00:46:44,560
Speaker 1: doesn't usually work like that. There aren't these three movies

1082
00:46:44,560 --> 00:46:47,239
Speaker 1: that everybody's like, Oh, I really want to, you know,

1083
00:46:47,320 --> 00:46:49,640
Speaker 1: evaluate it and give some love to So I would

1084
00:46:49,680 --> 00:46:52,239
Speaker 1: say not winning for screenplay. It used to be Best

1085
00:46:52,280 --> 00:46:55,280
Speaker 1: Director and Best Picture were completely correlated, but in recent

1086
00:46:55,360 --> 00:46:57,839
Speaker 1: years it's been a huge split with that. So at

1087
00:46:57,840 --> 00:47:00,520
Speaker 1: this point, the way it would split, it's it's not

1088
00:47:01,000 --> 00:47:03,680
Speaker 1: that surprising that it would happen historically, though, it'd be

1089
00:47:03,680 --> 00:47:04,399
Speaker 1: pretty rare, I.

1090
00:47:04,320 --> 00:47:06,759
Speaker 4: Think, especially looking at the odds, though I would not

1091
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:09,400
Speaker 4: bet personally. I would not bet Parasite on that because

1092
00:47:09,480 --> 00:47:12,600
Speaker 4: it's it's not enough skin in the game to actually matter,

1093
00:47:12,680 --> 00:47:15,160
Speaker 4: and once upon a time in Hollywood has some and

1094
00:47:15,239 --> 00:47:16,720
Speaker 4: so I would bet this here.

1095
00:47:16,960 --> 00:47:20,120
Speaker 1: Yep, I think that's an absolutely fair take. Now, Best Director,

1096
00:47:20,160 --> 00:47:22,919
Speaker 1: we mentioned it briefly. Sounds like we're both in agreement here.

1097
00:47:23,000 --> 00:47:27,160
Speaker 1: Sam Mendy's the overwhelming favorite at minus nine hundred, Bang

1098
00:47:27,239 --> 00:47:30,960
Speaker 1: Juno at plus four fifty for Parasite, Quentin Tarantino at

1099
00:47:30,960 --> 00:47:34,400
Speaker 1: plus seventeen hundred, Martin Scorsese at plus four thousand, and

1100
00:47:34,480 --> 00:47:38,160
Speaker 1: Todd Phillips at plus five thousand. So again, Sam Mendy's

1101
00:47:38,200 --> 00:47:40,480
Speaker 1: he won the Golden Globe, he won the DGA. The

1102
00:47:40,560 --> 00:47:43,520
Speaker 1: DGA the Director's Guild of America Awards. They are the

1103
00:47:43,560 --> 00:47:46,359
Speaker 1: most predictive award by far. If you win that, you

1104
00:47:46,360 --> 00:47:49,520
Speaker 1: know all. But I think it's seven over the last

1105
00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:52,359
Speaker 1: I don't know, like fifty sixty years have wound up

1106
00:47:52,400 --> 00:47:55,000
Speaker 1: winning the Oscar for Best Director, so incredibly predictive. So

1107
00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:58,000
Speaker 1: are we in agreement here that Sam Mendes is basically

1108
00:47:58,200 --> 00:48:01,759
Speaker 1: walking home with this award. Yes, all right, let me

1109
00:48:01,800 --> 00:48:06,080
Speaker 1: ask let me just try to throw one little tiny,

1110
00:48:06,160 --> 00:48:08,960
Speaker 1: it'sy bitsy wrinkle into it in our sort of They

1111
00:48:09,040 --> 00:48:11,080
Speaker 1: want to honor all these movies, so let's see how

1112
00:48:11,120 --> 00:48:13,799
Speaker 1: they're able to break it down. Quentin Tarantino has been

1113
00:48:13,800 --> 00:48:16,200
Speaker 1: around for a long time, right. He's made a number

1114
00:48:16,280 --> 00:48:20,520
Speaker 1: of highly regarded films that have been, you know, nominated

1115
00:48:20,560 --> 00:48:23,160
Speaker 1: for Oscars. He won Best Screenplay, I believe, for Pulp

1116
00:48:23,239 --> 00:48:25,560
Speaker 1: Fiction and it was nominated, and he was nominated in

1117
00:48:25,640 --> 00:48:28,840
Speaker 1: Glorious Bastards. He's obviously been around the while. I believe

1118
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:31,600
Speaker 1: he has said that he is making one more film

1119
00:48:31,920 --> 00:48:34,640
Speaker 1: after this and that is it and then he is done.

1120
00:48:35,239 --> 00:48:39,000
Speaker 1: And if that's true, is there any chance it's plus

1121
00:48:39,040 --> 00:48:41,279
Speaker 1: seventeen hundred? It's a big log shot. Is there any

1122
00:48:41,440 --> 00:48:43,360
Speaker 1: chance that the Academy is gonna be like, you know what,

1123
00:48:43,400 --> 00:48:44,920
Speaker 1: we don't know what that last film is gonna be.

1124
00:48:44,960 --> 00:48:46,719
Speaker 1: He said he might be a star Trek he's been

1125
00:48:46,719 --> 00:48:49,360
Speaker 1: talking about. So it may not even have a chance

1126
00:48:49,440 --> 00:48:52,000
Speaker 1: to be nominated for an Oscar. This could be their

1127
00:48:52,080 --> 00:48:55,880
Speaker 1: last chance to nominate Tarantino. Is there any way anyway

1128
00:48:56,000 --> 00:48:57,600
Speaker 1: to be clear? I don't think there is I'm just

1129
00:48:57,600 --> 00:48:59,239
Speaker 1: throwing out food for thought, but is there any way

1130
00:48:59,280 --> 00:49:01,560
Speaker 1: Tarantino plus seventeen hundred. That's a lot on your money

1131
00:49:01,680 --> 00:49:04,200
Speaker 1: that there could be a curveball here and that the

1132
00:49:04,239 --> 00:49:06,759
Speaker 1: Oscar could go to Tarantino for once upon a time

1133
00:49:06,760 --> 00:49:08,440
Speaker 1: in Hollywood at plus seventeen hundred.

1134
00:49:09,440 --> 00:49:12,000
Speaker 4: Look, I think odds are odds for a reason, because

1135
00:49:12,040 --> 00:49:14,080
Speaker 4: the ones that are most likely to win often have

1136
00:49:14,160 --> 00:49:16,759
Speaker 4: the best odds. I think it's a fair point and

1137
00:49:16,840 --> 00:49:20,840
Speaker 4: an interesting point, and a good kind of long shot.

1138
00:49:21,080 --> 00:49:23,080
Speaker 4: If you're looking at if you say, you know what,

1139
00:49:23,719 --> 00:49:27,319
Speaker 4: that's possible, that's a hypothesis I could get behind. So

1140
00:49:27,880 --> 00:49:30,359
Speaker 4: I think it's interesting. I mean, I'm not a huge

1141
00:49:30,400 --> 00:49:35,000
Speaker 4: Tarantino fan anyway, which I'm sure most of the listeners

1142
00:49:35,000 --> 00:49:37,040
Speaker 4: that you will have here will probably hate me for that.

1143
00:49:37,120 --> 00:49:40,960
Speaker 4: But I did enjoy this film by far more than

1144
00:49:41,000 --> 00:49:44,400
Speaker 4: his other films. So I think it's a shot.

1145
00:49:44,480 --> 00:49:46,880
Speaker 1: It's a chance, it's a chance, it's a chance.

1146
00:49:47,160 --> 00:49:50,840
Speaker 4: It certainly makes for an interesting chat, interesting podcast.

1147
00:49:51,120 --> 00:49:53,279
Speaker 1: I like it. That is a very delicate way of

1148
00:49:53,320 --> 00:49:55,840
Speaker 1: saying that you disagree strongly, and I really appreciate it.

1149
00:49:55,880 --> 00:49:58,120
Speaker 1: But yeah, Sam Menda is gonna win.

1150
00:49:58,160 --> 00:49:59,200
Speaker 4: It's all in one shot.

1151
00:49:59,320 --> 00:50:00,400
Speaker 1: It's beauty. It's all.

1152
00:50:00,440 --> 00:50:02,960
Speaker 4: You should see it in the theater, all of it.

1153
00:50:02,960 --> 00:50:06,120
Speaker 1: It is gorgeous. It's a wonderful movie. I do love it,

1154
00:50:06,160 --> 00:50:08,200
Speaker 1: and I am gonna let you know that after this,

1155
00:50:08,640 --> 00:50:12,160
Speaker 1: I'm going to change my Twitter profile to quick to

1156
00:50:12,239 --> 00:50:16,400
Speaker 1: add in the quote that's a hypothesis I could get behind,

1157
00:50:16,520 --> 00:50:18,239
Speaker 1: because I think that that's going to be my new

1158
00:50:18,239 --> 00:50:18,719
Speaker 1: life model.

1159
00:50:18,719 --> 00:50:20,120
Speaker 4: All right, I thought you were going to change it

1160
00:50:20,120 --> 00:50:21,280
Speaker 4: to I Love Kathy Bates.

1161
00:50:21,640 --> 00:50:25,000
Speaker 1: Well, I think I have a restraining order against me,

1162
00:50:25,040 --> 00:50:26,880
Speaker 1: so I have to be careful. Okay, let's go on

1163
00:50:26,960 --> 00:50:29,520
Speaker 1: to Best Picture here, the big one. This is it.

1164
00:50:29,680 --> 00:50:33,439
Speaker 1: We've talked about it. It's it's really a three way race,

1165
00:50:33,480 --> 00:50:36,880
Speaker 1: as we talked about. But you know, Joker, I believe

1166
00:50:36,920 --> 00:50:39,680
Speaker 1: has the most nominations here with eleven, so that's always

1167
00:50:39,760 --> 00:50:41,480
Speaker 1: kind of a predictive for Best Picture. But let's talk

1168
00:50:41,520 --> 00:50:44,799
Speaker 1: about the odds here. Nineteen seventeen is the current favorite.

1169
00:50:44,840 --> 00:50:47,240
Speaker 1: They're at minus two fifty, so that's a fair favorite

1170
00:50:47,239 --> 00:50:49,600
Speaker 1: at this point when you're talking about Best Picture. Parasite

1171
00:50:49,680 --> 00:50:52,480
Speaker 1: is next at plus three twenty five. That's a pretty

1172
00:50:52,480 --> 00:50:54,920
Speaker 1: big difference between the two I'm a little surprised that

1173
00:50:54,960 --> 00:50:56,960
Speaker 1: it's that different. Once upon a Time in Hollywood at

1174
00:50:57,000 --> 00:51:00,360
Speaker 1: plus eight hundred, Joker at plus twelve hundred, and nobody

1175
00:51:00,400 --> 00:51:02,520
Speaker 1: else has a realistic chance, but I will add them

1176
00:51:02,520 --> 00:51:05,120
Speaker 1: in The Irishman at plus five thousand, Jojo Rabbit at

1177
00:51:05,160 --> 00:51:08,240
Speaker 1: plus sixty six hundred, Little Women at plus eight thousand,

1178
00:51:08,600 --> 00:51:12,120
Speaker 1: Marriage Story at plus ten thousand and four, v Ferrari

1179
00:51:12,640 --> 00:51:15,239
Speaker 1: at plus twenty five thousand. So let's just break this

1180
00:51:15,320 --> 00:51:18,640
Speaker 1: down for very quickly. The nineteen seventeen won the Golden

1181
00:51:18,680 --> 00:51:22,000
Speaker 1: Globe for Best Picture in a Drama, Once Upon a

1182
00:51:22,040 --> 00:51:27,160
Speaker 1: Time won Best Golden Globe for Best Picture Comedy or Musical,

1183
00:51:27,400 --> 00:51:30,960
Speaker 1: and Parasite won the SAG Awards. So it's all over

1184
00:51:30,960 --> 00:51:32,880
Speaker 1: the place. So I look, I have a text. I

1185
00:51:32,920 --> 00:51:34,719
Speaker 1: can read the text, so I know exactly what you're

1186
00:51:34,719 --> 00:51:36,920
Speaker 1: going to say. But go ahead. You think that Parasite

1187
00:51:36,920 --> 00:51:39,440
Speaker 1: is taking this home. Huh.

1188
00:51:39,480 --> 00:51:44,239
Speaker 4: Well, I think that nineteen seventeen is the heavy favorite,

1189
00:51:44,760 --> 00:51:47,680
Speaker 4: but I want to see Parasite win, and I think

1190
00:51:47,760 --> 00:51:51,520
Speaker 4: there can be a good upset. I'm actually upset that

1191
00:51:51,560 --> 00:51:54,719
Speaker 4: the odds have come this close. There's a big spread here, obviously,

1192
00:51:54,719 --> 00:51:58,239
Speaker 4: from negative two fifty to three twenty five. However, I

1193
00:51:58,239 --> 00:52:00,799
Speaker 4: thought it would be even farther way. But this has

1194
00:52:00,840 --> 00:52:06,719
Speaker 4: been mementom sad did me dirty. I'm not happy about it.

1195
00:52:06,760 --> 00:52:09,160
Speaker 4: But the reason I think Parasite will win. First of all,

1196
00:52:09,840 --> 00:52:12,680
Speaker 4: I think it was like the Shocker of the year,

1197
00:52:12,880 --> 00:52:15,759
Speaker 4: like you didn't expect anything from it. You didn't have

1198
00:52:15,840 --> 00:52:17,640
Speaker 4: any idea what was going to happen in the movie.

1199
00:52:17,680 --> 00:52:19,680
Speaker 4: I mean, we were just sitting there in that film, like,

1200
00:52:20,680 --> 00:52:23,680
Speaker 4: oh my goodness, about halfway through and we had no

1201
00:52:23,760 --> 00:52:29,360
Speaker 4: idea what to expect. And it was fantastic, surprising, interesting,

1202
00:52:29,440 --> 00:52:35,120
Speaker 4: beautifully acted all of the things. And it's also not white,

1203
00:52:35,480 --> 00:52:38,319
Speaker 4: and I think that would be the showing that they

1204
00:52:38,360 --> 00:52:40,440
Speaker 4: need this has enough odds to make it close. I mean,

1205
00:52:40,920 --> 00:52:45,080
Speaker 4: Cynthia Rivo is far away. I love that argument, you know,

1206
00:52:45,120 --> 00:52:47,840
Speaker 4: I'd love if she wanted. But but Parasite, I think

1207
00:52:48,239 --> 00:52:50,880
Speaker 4: could be a good representation of showing that, no, we

1208
00:52:51,000 --> 00:52:56,920
Speaker 4: don't always select every war movie, mobster movie, you know,

1209
00:52:56,960 --> 00:53:00,520
Speaker 4: every every typical movie that you see. We do have

1210
00:53:01,000 --> 00:53:03,040
Speaker 4: a depth to us and we do pick things that

1211
00:53:03,080 --> 00:53:06,600
Speaker 4: are sometimes unexpected. This to me felt very much like

1212
00:53:06,719 --> 00:53:10,480
Speaker 4: the crash moment where I saw it, and I was like, no,

1213
00:53:10,640 --> 00:53:14,520
Speaker 4: this is it. Even though even though it wasn't necessarily

1214
00:53:14,800 --> 00:53:17,600
Speaker 4: the best of the films Crash at the time, I

1215
00:53:17,719 --> 00:53:20,840
Speaker 4: just knew it based on what was happening in the world,

1216
00:53:20,880 --> 00:53:23,720
Speaker 4: and I kind of feel like with Parasite it's the same.

1217
00:53:24,200 --> 00:53:28,000
Speaker 1: So the one thing that makes this award much more

1218
00:53:28,040 --> 00:53:30,080
Speaker 1: difficult to predict, I think than any other award is

1219
00:53:30,160 --> 00:53:32,920
Speaker 1: that this is not done in the same way that

1220
00:53:33,640 --> 00:53:36,920
Speaker 1: other awards are done. You rank these awards, the voters

1221
00:53:37,040 --> 00:53:39,480
Speaker 1: rank them, so you literally go there and you rank

1222
00:53:39,800 --> 00:53:43,960
Speaker 1: your choices, and so you could conceivably be Parasite, could

1223
00:53:44,000 --> 00:53:47,439
Speaker 1: be no voter's first choice, and could be every voter

1224
00:53:47,600 --> 00:53:51,200
Speaker 1: second choice and win the Oscar for Best Picture, because

1225
00:53:51,200 --> 00:53:53,880
Speaker 1: in the end it winds up with however they tabulated

1226
00:53:53,880 --> 00:53:56,520
Speaker 1: based on the ranking. So this one is really difficult

1227
00:53:56,560 --> 00:54:00,680
Speaker 1: to predict. So look, Parasite is a funment. I mean it.

1228
00:54:01,040 --> 00:54:02,440
Speaker 1: You know, it reminds you a lot of get out

1229
00:54:02,520 --> 00:54:06,240
Speaker 1: right that sort of thing, nineteen seventeen and you know, yeah,

1230
00:54:06,320 --> 00:54:08,400
Speaker 1: it's the war movie. It's kind of like the classic

1231
00:54:08,520 --> 00:54:12,680
Speaker 1: or like whatever. To me, I'm gonna I it the

1232
00:54:12,840 --> 00:54:15,160
Speaker 1: I don't love the odds rankly because I think, you know,

1233
00:54:15,239 --> 00:54:16,920
Speaker 1: to me, the odds should be even closer. I mean,

1234
00:54:17,080 --> 00:54:19,000
Speaker 1: this is really kind of a toss up right now

1235
00:54:19,120 --> 00:54:22,400
Speaker 1: between Parasite and nineteen seventeen. But I still think in

1236
00:54:22,440 --> 00:54:25,280
Speaker 1: the end, nineteen seventeen is going to take it home.

1237
00:54:25,360 --> 00:54:27,480
Speaker 1: And you know, part of it again reminds me a

1238
00:54:27,480 --> 00:54:30,400
Speaker 1: little bit of Birdman, which had the same concept in

1239
00:54:30,480 --> 00:54:33,240
Speaker 1: terms of directing, where it's done to be one long,

1240
00:54:33,400 --> 00:54:39,200
Speaker 1: continuous shot. It was really just stunning in every single way.

1241
00:54:39,280 --> 00:54:41,920
Speaker 1: So for me, I think in the end, what probably

1242
00:54:41,960 --> 00:54:44,400
Speaker 1: happens and it's the favorite. As we talked about for screenplay,

1243
00:54:44,560 --> 00:54:47,719
Speaker 1: I think they're going to honor Parasite with Best Screenplay,

1244
00:54:48,320 --> 00:54:51,839
Speaker 1: to give a foreign language film Best Picture. I mean,

1245
00:54:52,360 --> 00:54:54,960
Speaker 1: they're almost there. The Academy is moving in that direction,

1246
00:54:55,280 --> 00:54:57,359
Speaker 1: but for me, I think we're still a little bit

1247
00:54:57,400 --> 00:54:59,200
Speaker 1: of a step away from it. That's a big leap.

1248
00:54:59,480 --> 00:55:01,840
Speaker 1: So for me, I think I don't love the odds,

1249
00:55:01,840 --> 00:55:03,880
Speaker 1: so I wouldn't place a bet on it. And you know,

1250
00:55:04,040 --> 00:55:06,160
Speaker 1: I like the odds at Parasite at plus three twenty five,

1251
00:55:06,160 --> 00:55:09,160
Speaker 1: which they were much longer, just you know, a week

1252
00:55:09,239 --> 00:55:11,880
Speaker 1: or two ago. I think the odds on that are

1253
00:55:11,920 --> 00:55:13,760
Speaker 1: better in terms of what I think the actual chances

1254
00:55:13,760 --> 00:55:15,880
Speaker 1: of winning are. But I do think in the end

1255
00:55:15,920 --> 00:55:17,759
Speaker 1: that nineteen seventeen takes it up.

1256
00:55:18,560 --> 00:55:20,799
Speaker 4: I'm sure you're right. Look, I mean it makes sense,

1257
00:55:20,920 --> 00:55:23,640
Speaker 4: especially with the split, and especially with Once Upon a

1258
00:55:23,719 --> 00:55:25,239
Speaker 4: Time in Hollywood. Like if you look at it, like

1259
00:55:25,760 --> 00:55:29,640
Speaker 4: Parasite takes screenplay and then nineteen seventeen takes the other two,

1260
00:55:30,040 --> 00:55:32,680
Speaker 4: it's just look at the odds. What's kind of what's

1261
00:55:32,719 --> 00:55:34,840
Speaker 4: the point? So I think you got to have a

1262
00:55:34,840 --> 00:55:38,560
Speaker 4: little fun for me. I'm going Parasite on Best Picture.

1263
00:55:39,000 --> 00:55:41,200
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go Sam Mendez for Best Director, and I'm

1264
00:55:41,239 --> 00:55:43,960
Speaker 4: gonna go Once Upon a Time in Hollywood for screenplay,

1265
00:55:44,120 --> 00:55:46,439
Speaker 4: just for fun, because hello, I want to win.

1266
00:55:46,760 --> 00:55:47,120
Speaker 2: I like it.

1267
00:55:47,719 --> 00:55:50,440
Speaker 4: I don't want to bet, you know, one hundred bucks

1268
00:55:50,440 --> 00:55:50,880
Speaker 4: to win.

1269
00:55:51,160 --> 00:55:55,680
Speaker 1: Two unless it's unless it's Kathy Bits, right, only Kathy Baits. Yeah,

1270
00:55:55,680 --> 00:55:56,400
Speaker 1: that's the only exception.

1271
00:55:56,440 --> 00:55:57,879
Speaker 4: But I'm betting on her right away, and her odds

1272
00:55:57,920 --> 00:55:58,560
Speaker 4: are the best of all.

1273
00:55:58,719 --> 00:56:01,040
Speaker 1: No, I completely agree. Well, Long Shot of the Night

1274
00:56:01,120 --> 00:56:02,600
Speaker 1: is going to be a revo. That's the one who

1275
00:56:02,640 --> 00:56:05,200
Speaker 1: I think could do it. Otherwise, I'm pretty much going

1276
00:56:05,280 --> 00:56:09,040
Speaker 1: with the favorites. I think Parasite's gonna win Original Screenplay.

1277
00:56:09,120 --> 00:56:11,000
Speaker 1: And again I don't love the odds, you know, minus

1278
00:56:11,000 --> 00:56:13,440
Speaker 1: two hundred mendes though for sure, and I do think

1279
00:56:13,520 --> 00:56:15,279
Speaker 1: nineteen seventeen is gonna take it. That may be a

1280
00:56:15,280 --> 00:56:16,960
Speaker 1: little bit of wishful thinking for me, because I did

1281
00:56:17,040 --> 00:56:20,280
Speaker 1: love it. It was my favorite film of the season.

1282
00:56:20,360 --> 00:56:23,359
Speaker 1: But it's gonna be interesting. And again, this is something

1283
00:56:23,440 --> 00:56:25,839
Speaker 1: you know, we talk about Crash all the time. That's

1284
00:56:25,840 --> 00:56:28,080
Speaker 1: like the quintessential, like, wow, we didn't really see that

1285
00:56:28,120 --> 00:56:31,439
Speaker 1: coming except you. But remember Moonlight just a few years ago.

1286
00:56:31,560 --> 00:56:34,279
Speaker 1: Nobody right, nobody saw that. Everybody thought it was gonna

1287
00:56:34,280 --> 00:56:36,520
Speaker 1: be Lalla Aline. So it is something where you know,

1288
00:56:36,640 --> 00:56:40,319
Speaker 1: upset time, including Warren Beatty, including Warren bit No, it

1289
00:56:40,400 --> 00:56:42,280
Speaker 1: wasn't his fault, all right, They gave him the wrong

1290
00:56:42,680 --> 00:56:45,520
Speaker 1: on Belove so whatever. All right, Well, look that is

1291
00:56:45,520 --> 00:56:47,759
Speaker 1: going to do it for today's show. Carry Kurpin, thank

1292
00:56:47,760 --> 00:56:50,040
Speaker 1: you for coming on. Tell everyone, because I've been talking

1293
00:56:50,080 --> 00:56:52,520
Speaker 1: this whole time, and other than our upbringing. Tell everyone

1294
00:56:52,840 --> 00:56:55,399
Speaker 1: where they can find you, where they can check you out.

1295
00:56:55,520 --> 00:56:56,640
Speaker 1: Tell everybody about yourself.

1296
00:56:57,040 --> 00:56:59,640
Speaker 4: Sure you can find me at Carrie Kirpin, just about

1297
00:56:59,600 --> 00:57:02,239
Speaker 4: everywhere in the world. You can check out my podcast

1298
00:57:02,440 --> 00:57:06,480
Speaker 4: All the Social Ladies, which interviews women in marketing, or

1299
00:57:06,520 --> 00:57:08,760
Speaker 4: you can buy my book work at Secrets for Success

1300
00:57:08,800 --> 00:57:11,239
Speaker 4: from the Boldest Woman in Business. I do wish they

1301
00:57:11,320 --> 00:57:14,040
Speaker 4: had Oscar betting tips there because I could do a

1302
00:57:14,080 --> 00:57:15,960
Speaker 4: whole chapter on that and talk about it all day.

1303
00:57:16,000 --> 00:57:18,760
Speaker 4: So thank you for indulging me. Dan, this is your

1304
00:57:18,800 --> 00:57:20,200
Speaker 4: sister's dream, I know.

1305
00:57:20,200 --> 00:57:23,360
Speaker 1: It's my pleasure. Well, we do Oscar odds. Basically, we

1306
00:57:23,520 --> 00:57:26,439
Speaker 1: have this entire conversation, just not on a podcast every

1307
00:57:26,480 --> 00:57:29,240
Speaker 1: single year. Anyway. This is kind of how our family

1308
00:57:29,280 --> 00:57:32,000
Speaker 1: grew up. So hopefully we can have you back next year,

1309
00:57:32,120 --> 00:57:34,480
Speaker 1: I hope. So all right, thanks again, thanks again for

1310
00:57:34,520 --> 00:57:36,400
Speaker 1: coming on, and I'll see you in a couple of

1311
00:57:36,400 --> 00:57:37,760
Speaker 1: weeks when we come down to visit.

1312
00:57:38,360 --> 00:57:38,919
Speaker 2: That's right.

1313
00:57:39,440 --> 00:57:42,040
Speaker 1: I want to mind everybody about DraftKings, where you can

1314
00:57:42,080 --> 00:57:44,920
Speaker 1: place a five dollars wager on any picture to win

1315
00:57:44,960 --> 00:57:48,120
Speaker 1: best picture and win fifty dollars if you are correct. Now,

1316
00:57:48,160 --> 00:57:50,240
Speaker 1: I'm not sure of our schedule going forward here guys,

1317
00:57:50,240 --> 00:57:52,439
Speaker 1: but you can always reach me at Dan Harris eighty

1318
00:57:52,480 --> 00:57:55,160
Speaker 1: on Twitter if you want to inquire. Until then, enjoy

1319
00:57:55,160 --> 00:57:57,960
Speaker 1: the Oscars gear it for some baseball and we'll talk

1320
00:57:58,000 --> 00:58:06,520
Speaker 1: to him ten Tebody are never

1321
00:58:08,720 --> 00:58:08,760
Speaker 2: T