Speaker 1: Does it even matter who's in the oval office, who
Speaker 1: the president is, at least when it comes to our investments.
Speaker 1: I mean, every four years we hear the same story. Right,
Speaker 1: this election is going to change everything for the stock market.
Speaker 1: We have like famous hedge fund investors right now saying
Speaker 1: if one opponent wins, they're going to pull all their
Speaker 1: money out of the stock market or they're going to
Speaker 1: move out of the country. But what if I told
Speaker 1: you that might be one of the biggest myths in
Speaker 1: all of finance. In fact, data shows that the market
Speaker 1: performs different but maybe the same, no matter who's president. Surprising, right, Well,
Speaker 1: that's just the tip of the iceberg, because under the
Speaker 1: hood is actually a roadmap that we can follow. There's
Speaker 1: got a lot of nuance to it. So today I'm
Speaker 1: going to show you the exact data so you can
Speaker 1: see the truth behind who and actually what's really controlling
Speaker 1: the markets. And while you're probably worrying about the wrong
Speaker 1: things at least when it comes to your investments, and
Speaker 1: of course what we should all be doing to prepare
Speaker 1: now real quick. If you're new here, my name is
Speaker 1: Mark Moss. I've been investing my own money into the
Speaker 1: markets for decades. I've been writing investment research newsletters for
Speaker 1: over nine years now. I've been helping thousands of investors
Speaker 1: just like you, navigate and profit in the markets. I'm
Speaker 1: a partner in a leading tech VC hedge fund, and
Speaker 1: the data that I'm going to show you comes from there, right,
Speaker 1: So stick around because what you're about to learn could
Speaker 1: completely change the way that you invest for good. All right,
Speaker 1: let's go all right, So we're going to jump right
Speaker 1: in and we're going to talk about this election that's happening.
Speaker 1: We got Trump and Kamala running for the US president.
Speaker 1: The polls show it's about neck and neck, and a
Speaker 1: lot of people are concerned on this election. They say
Speaker 1: that this is the most important election we've ever had,
Speaker 1: and I might actually agree on that. I know that
Speaker 1: that's said about almost every election we've had, and that's
Speaker 1: because each one becomes increasingly more important. There's a lot
Speaker 1: of reasons why that is the case. The way that
Speaker 1: they use executive orders, there's a whole lot of things.
Speaker 1: But this is not about politics. This is about markets.
Speaker 1: This is about investing. How we're going to make money.
Speaker 1: And so while there's certainly major differences between Trump and Kamala.
Speaker 1: In some ways they couldn't be more opposite, and in
Speaker 1: a lot of ways they're maybe very similar. And certainly
Speaker 1: regarding who wins, we're going to see massive differences when
Speaker 1: it comes to social programs, border security, lots of things.
Speaker 1: Censorship probably the most important topic of our lifetime. But
Speaker 1: in regards to money, in regards to the US budget,
Speaker 1: the deficits and money, and then of course the markets
Speaker 1: and our investments, is it really that different. Let's kind
Speaker 1: of take a look. Now. The popular belief is that,
Speaker 1: of course, whoever wins has a massive impact. They elect
Speaker 1: the head of the Fed, they're going to help direct
Speaker 1: the budget of that set tax policy. Kamala has some
Speaker 1: pretty aggressive tax policies compared to Trump is the opposite.
Speaker 1: And so a lot of people think that this influence
Speaker 1: is the market. Like I said, I've seeing billionaire hedge
Speaker 1: fund people are saying they're going to pull the money
Speaker 1: out of the market, like I Kamala wins, for example,
Speaker 1: other people say we'll move out of the country if
Speaker 1: Trump wins, and so we see it back and forth. However,
Speaker 1: I like to invest in the market as it is,
Speaker 1: not as I think it is, not, as I think
Speaker 1: it should be, but as it is. You see, everybody
Speaker 1: works off of emotion and gut this is what I feel,
Speaker 1: and you know, the society has emotionally charged everything, and
Speaker 1: so today we're way more emotionally whatever have been. But
Speaker 1: as investors, that's the worst thing that can happen. We
Speaker 1: want to know the data. So we're gonna do is
Speaker 1: We're gona look at the data to go back in time,
Speaker 1: so we're gonna completely change the way you look at this,
Speaker 1: and then we're gonna show you what this roadmap tells
Speaker 1: us on what to do. So let's go ahead and
Speaker 1: just dig in. We're gonna go way, way, way back,
Speaker 1: not super far back, but we're gonna go back to
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety three Bill Clinton. So we've had Democrats, we've
Speaker 1: had Republicans, we've got them all. But what happened in
Speaker 1: the market. Now, for the market, we're just gonna look
Speaker 1: at the SMP five hundred. Of course there's more to
Speaker 1: the market. There's the NASDAC obviously, there's commodities, real estate.
Speaker 1: We're gonna look at the SMP five hundred, which is,
Speaker 1: you know, the main index, and what we can see
Speaker 1: from the time Bill Clinton was elected right here in
Speaker 1: the first three years and eight months, so from January
Speaker 1: one until September, that's the timeframe we're looking at. And
Speaker 1: what we can see is that while Bill Clinton was
Speaker 1: here for the first three years and eight months, the market,
Speaker 1: the SMB five vender went up by fifty percent, actually
Speaker 1: fifty five point nine percent, about fifty percent. Keep that
Speaker 1: number in mind, fifty five percent. With Bill Clinton. Well,
Speaker 1: Bill Clinton got another term. He didn't just run once,
Speaker 1: he ran again. And what happened the next time, well,
Speaker 1: from again the same period January one through September, we
Speaker 1: can see that the market went up almost fifty percent,
Speaker 1: in this case forty three percent, so almost fifty percent
Speaker 1: again as well. Now, yes it went up and it
Speaker 1: went down, and yes it went up even higher and
Speaker 1: it came down, but in that same time period it
Speaker 1: ended up about fifty percent up. Pretty interesting. Okay, let's
Speaker 1: just keep moving on. Let's look at the data. Then
Speaker 1: we got Obama. Obama came in two thousand and nine.
Speaker 1: We can see here in January was elected right here,
Speaker 1: and in the same time period we see the market
Speaker 1: going up by sixty one percent, little over fifty percent
Speaker 1: of sixty one percent, the market's up. Okay, well, that's
Speaker 1: enough of Obama. We can look at again. Obama got
Speaker 1: two terms, so we'll look at that. This was the
Speaker 1: first term. You can see went up here sixty one percent.
Speaker 1: The next term right here, in the same time period
Speaker 1: again three years eight months, went up again fifty one percent.
Speaker 1: So it's almost seeming like every president in the first
Speaker 1: three years, a little over three years, the market goes
Speaker 1: up by about fifty percent. Pretty interesting. Let's keep going.
Speaker 1: What about Trump? Trump is going to destroy the democracy,
Speaker 1: He's going to destroy the world, right, well, or if
Speaker 1: you like Trump, then he's going to save the world. However,
Speaker 1: what we can see here is on the same time
Speaker 1: period January one, for the first three years and eight months,
Speaker 1: the market is up fifty eight percent. So it's almost
Speaker 1: looking like Clinton, Obama, Trump, it doesn't really matter. It's up.
Speaker 1: What about Biden. Biden's been horrible for the economy, right,
Speaker 1: He's been horrible for the economy. We've suffered from the
Speaker 1: highest inflation, the worst unemployment, all those things. But what
Speaker 1: happened in the market, Well for Biden on the same
Speaker 1: time January one, the same time period, not cherry picking data,
Speaker 1: three years, eight months we can see the market was
Speaker 1: up fifty three percent. Obama, Clinton, Biden Trump three years,
Speaker 1: eight months, the market's up about fifty percent. Pretty interesting,
Speaker 1: isn't it. Let's take a look at this if we
Speaker 1: zoom out. I don't know how we'll be able to
Speaker 1: see this if we zoom out. This is what it
Speaker 1: looks like each presidential election cycle. Guess what. The market
Speaker 1: just keeps going up. As Lynn Alden says, there's no
Speaker 1: stopping that train. This is sort of overlapping all the
Speaker 1: periods together. You can see what this looks like. There
Speaker 1: is nothing stopping this train, regardless of who's in. Okay,
Speaker 1: well that's pretty interesting, Mark, I didn't know that. The
Speaker 1: data certainly contradicts what my gut and my emotions tell me.
Speaker 1: But now that we look at the data, then I
Speaker 1: guess the question is that if the president doesn't change it,
Speaker 1: and regardless of who's there, the markets go up, then
Speaker 1: what's really drive in the market. Well, that's a good
Speaker 1: question to ask. Is it the economic policies of these people? Well,
Speaker 1: obviously not. They have drastic policies, right, and we have
Speaker 1: heavy tax policies, we have light tax policies. Trump gave
Speaker 1: us all kinds of tax breaks. Biden repealed the tax breaks.
Speaker 1: There's a study that shows that regardless of what the
Speaker 1: tax rate is, the government can tax ninety percent, the
Speaker 1: government can tax ten percent. The percentage of taxes collected
Speaker 1: the revenue as a percent of GDP stays about the same.
Speaker 1: I believe it's eighteen percent. I didn't pull up a
Speaker 1: stat on this. So regardless if they tax more or
Speaker 1: they tax less, the percentage of GDP stays about the same.
Speaker 1: Why is that Well, because when they tax more, economic
Speaker 1: activity goes down, so they do get a larger piece,
Speaker 1: but of a smaller pie. When taxes go down, now
Speaker 1: activity goes up, so now they get a smaller piece
Speaker 1: of a much bigger pie. So regardless of what the
Speaker 1: tax policy is, that's why it stays about the same.
Speaker 1: So what's really driving the market? If you watch my
Speaker 1: channel on a regular basis, then you're familiar with this chart.
Speaker 1: If you don't, then go ahead and hit that subscribe
Speaker 1: button right now while you're watching. Okay, now this is
Speaker 1: the S and P five hundred again, we're using that
Speaker 1: as the market. Now, what I'm doing here is I'm
Speaker 1: looking at global liquity, not US, not the Federal Reserve.
Speaker 1: Not in the USM two. We're looking at global equity.
Speaker 1: We have to understand that money moves around the world.
Speaker 1: Right when they print billions of dollars in China, a
Speaker 1: lot of that money comes to Canada and the US
Speaker 1: buying real estate, farmland. Do you hear about that, right,
Speaker 1: US companies. So what we can see here is the
Speaker 1: black line is the SMP five hundred. Gold line is
Speaker 1: the amount of liquidity. And what you can see is
Speaker 1: the S and P five hundred is almost a perfect
Speaker 1: proxy for the increase in the money supply. It moves
Speaker 1: in almost perfect lock step. So as there's more money,
Speaker 1: there's more money chasing limited goods. Supply and demand tells
Speaker 1: us that the price goes up. We can see it evidence.
Speaker 1: Here's a little bit of another chart. This is USM two.
Speaker 1: But what this is in the blue line, what we
Speaker 1: have here is the Fed balance sheet and in the
Speaker 1: red line we have the S and P five hundred.
Speaker 1: And again you can see this moving almost in lockstep.
Speaker 1: Look at that this came down, This came down, This
Speaker 1: starts going back up. This starts going back up. Pretty interesting,
Speaker 1: isn't it. So then the question is, well, if it's
Speaker 1: not the FED, I'm sorry. If it's not the President,
Speaker 1: then it has to do with the FED printing money.
Speaker 1: But not just the FED. Other central banks, the Bank
Speaker 1: of Japan, the Bank of China PBOC, the ECB, the
Speaker 1: European Central Bank, etc. Seem to really be driving this. Now,
Speaker 1: I like to show this chart to all the doomers
Speaker 1: in disbelief. This is the homes. This is the United
Speaker 1: States National Index, the median home price in the United States.
Speaker 1: The red line is the home prices. The blue line
Speaker 1: again is the money supply. And what we can see
Speaker 1: is they move in perfect lockstep. You're not getting rich
Speaker 1: by your home dialue going up. It's keeping up with
Speaker 1: the rate of debasement. Now this is two thousand and eight,
Speaker 1: and there was certainly a little bubble going on there.
Speaker 1: Now it's snapped back below and you can see that
Speaker 1: home prices are nowhere near all time highs based in
Speaker 1: two thousand and eight, based off of where the money
Speaker 1: supply is. I want to take a second, just real quick,
Speaker 1: to just give you a reminder. The reminder is take
Speaker 1: control of your bitcoin. Look, for the first time in history,
Speaker 1: we have a way to preserve our property. Take custody
Speaker 1: of our property and protect it with no cost. You
Speaker 1: can't do that with gold, you can't do it with
Speaker 1: your stocks, and so we can do it with bitcoin,
Speaker 1: and you should. Now don't store it on an app
Speaker 1: on your phone that can get hacked. What you want
Speaker 1: to do is use a hardware device something like this
Speaker 1: Treasle right here, So basically your private key sits here.
Speaker 1: When you want to do a transaction, you plug it
Speaker 1: into your computer, sign the transaction. When you're done, you
Speaker 1: unplug it and put it back into your safe. I've
Speaker 1: used Treasure for now, I don't know, six seven years,
Speaker 1: because I think it's the easiest one to use. I've
Speaker 1: tried I think pretty much all of them. And it's
Speaker 1: also open source so you can trust the code. And
Speaker 1: again it's easy. Why easy Because if it's too complex,
Speaker 1: it makes me think of how many potential holes and
Speaker 1: risk there could be, not just in the device itself,
Speaker 1: but even in my own ability to secure it. So
Speaker 1: I want something fast, I want something easy, and I
Speaker 1: don't want something to say. If that's why I use Treasure,
Speaker 1: And if you don't use Treasure, use something. Please get
Speaker 1: your bitcoin off the exchange. Use a hardware device to
Speaker 1: secure your private key and if you like treasure, check
Speaker 1: out the link down below. Okay, so if that's the case,
Speaker 1: then we want to look at the money supply obviously, right,
Speaker 1: not just who the president is, because we understand now
Speaker 1: it's more than just the United States president. It's about
Speaker 1: the money supply, and it's about the global money supply.
Speaker 1: We want to look at all the central banks of
Speaker 1: the world. Now, the interesting thing I called this the
Speaker 1: monetary Codex. If you haven't seen my videos on the
Speaker 1: monetary Codex, then you don't really have a roadmap to
Speaker 1: follow this. We'll try to link that down in the
Speaker 1: show notes down below so you can watch that. But
Speaker 1: what happens is is that because we're in a debt
Speaker 1: based monetary system that means money is created through debt issues.
Speaker 1: The debt can never be repaid. It has to always
Speaker 1: continually grow. You hear about them kicking the can down
Speaker 1: the road. It's because in a debt based system it
Speaker 1: has to be so the debt can't be repaid, it
Speaker 1: can't be destroyed. That would cause deflation. We can't have that.
Speaker 1: Then we have to have more debt to roll over
Speaker 1: the existing debt. Now we've heard this in the last
Speaker 1: debt seialing debate. President Biden said, we have to increase
Speaker 1: the debt seialing debate. We have to have more debt
Speaker 1: to pay off the old debt. Like he literally said
Speaker 1: that out loud, like that's a ponzi And you're exactly right. Now,
Speaker 1: the interesting thing about this is that the whole world
Speaker 1: runs off of debt. You probably have a lot of debt.
Speaker 1: I have a lot of debt. Businesses run off of debt,
Speaker 1: corporations run off of debt, the government's run off of debt,
Speaker 1: et cetera. Now, if the bank called you up and said, hey,
Speaker 1: we'll refinance your mortgage to zero, do you want to refinance?
Speaker 1: Of course you're going to take that. And that's exactly
Speaker 1: what happened in two thousand and eight. And during the
Speaker 1: Great Financial Crash, the entire globe moved interestates through about zero,
Speaker 1: some less than zero. And what do you think happened?
Speaker 1: Everybody refinanced. And what it did is it put the
Speaker 1: entire world onto a cycle. Now the world is rolling
Speaker 1: over debt in a very predictable cycle. You're probably seeing
Speaker 1: this chart again if you watch my videos, and we
Speaker 1: can see that in this chart right here, seventy five
Speaker 1: percent of all the debt in the world has a
Speaker 1: duration of about one to five years. Now, on average,
Speaker 1: that's about every four years or so, every four years
Speaker 1: the debt has to get rolled over. In order to
Speaker 1: roll over the debt, they have to create more debt,
Speaker 1: and you're starting to get the picture. Okay, So that
Speaker 1: creates these liquidity cycles. Now, the interesting thing is that
Speaker 1: these cycles, these four year cycles, also coincide with lots
Speaker 1: of other things. Now, this is the global equity cycle. Obviously,
Speaker 1: the red line is the hypothetical timeframe. The black line
Speaker 1: is actually the liquidity and you can see how well
Speaker 1: this matches up. And you can see right now the
Speaker 1: global equidity is turning up right on par on pace
Speaker 1: to match this global liquity cycle. Now, what's interesting about
Speaker 1: this is that four year cycle just happens to have
Speaker 1: started in two thousand and eight. So take that forward
Speaker 1: eight twenty twelve, twenty sixteen, twenty twenty, twenty twenty four,
Speaker 1: and that just so happens to overlap with the four
Speaker 1: year business cycle. This is what we see in the ism.
Speaker 1: So you can see about every four years this rolls
Speaker 1: over and if you're counting with me along. You might
Speaker 1: also know that this also overlaps with the four year
Speaker 1: presidential cycle, which is exactly what we're in right now.
Speaker 1: It also just happens to overlap with the four year
Speaker 1: bitcoin cycle, and so we're seeing all this thing happen
Speaker 1: over and over and over. Now, if we want to
Speaker 1: look at that in regards to global liquidy and understand
Speaker 1: the markets, we can look at it like this, so
Speaker 1: we can see, we got three good years and a
Speaker 1: down here, we got three good years and a down here,
Speaker 1: We got three good years in a down here, and
Speaker 1: we started October twenty If you go back on my
Speaker 1: channel in October twenty twenty two, I made a video
Speaker 1: said there is no market crash coming and here is why,
Speaker 1: and I made several videos going into early twenty twenty
Speaker 1: three explaining this. You can see from October twenty two
Speaker 1: to present, we are on another upcycle. So regardless of
Speaker 1: who the president is, we are on these four year cycles,
Speaker 1: and the presidency cycle just happens to coincide with that.
Speaker 1: And that's why whoever the president is is sort of irrelevant,
Speaker 1: because again, nothing stops this train, the liquidity train. That
Speaker 1: is now the question that we want to ask ourselves
Speaker 1: as investors who want to grow our portfolio, is what
Speaker 1: are the fastest boats we can go in? So you know,
Speaker 1: liquidy rises all boats, but what a warm Buffetts say,
Speaker 1: But when the tide, the rising tide lifts all boats.
Speaker 1: But when the tide goes out you see the swimming
Speaker 1: naked well. Liquidity rises all boats. The difference is that
Speaker 1: different boats go up at different rates. So the question
Speaker 1: is which boats should we be getting into? Because I
Speaker 1: showed you the S and P five hundred is only
Speaker 1: keeping up with the rate of liquidity, so it's a
Speaker 1: perfect boat. It's keeping you above water. Same with homes.
Speaker 1: The media and US home price is keeping up with it.
Speaker 1: But that means that you're not losing. That's great, but
Speaker 1: it means that you're also not getting ahead. Now, different
Speaker 1: rates have different cycles, so we want to ignore the
Speaker 1: elections and instead we want to focus on these cycles.
Speaker 1: We want to have longer term strategies. So for example,
Speaker 1: we can see that different assets have different sensitivity ratios.
Speaker 1: So what we can see here is that global liquity
Speaker 1: times monetary inflation hedges, gold and bitcoin, for example, move
Speaker 1: at different rates. So in this perspective, we can see,
Speaker 1: and I've broken this down for you before. For every
Speaker 1: ten percent increase in liquidity, why do I say ten percent?
Speaker 1: Since twenty nineteen, the US has increased its monetary base
Speaker 1: by ten percent a year. Now. The world is also
Speaker 1: in contribute to that, and it's also getting faster, faster, faster.
Speaker 1: It used to be eight percent, now it's ten percent.
Speaker 1: Most likely if next year it will be twelve percent,
Speaker 1: but let's stick stick with ten percent. For every ten
Speaker 1: percent increase in money, gold goes up at about one
Speaker 1: point four five percent, so about fourteen gold will go
Speaker 1: fourteen percent. For every ten percent money supply, Bitcoin goes
Speaker 1: up at about eight point nine percent, So for ten
Speaker 1: percent increase in money, bitcoin goes up by ninety percent. Now, Mark,
Speaker 1: but bitcoin is the same price. Bitcoin's the same price
Speaker 1: as it was six months ago. Okay, September of last year.
Speaker 1: September of twenty twenty three, twelve months ago, Bitcoin bigcoins
Speaker 1: up one hundred and forty percent. What about September twenty
Speaker 1: twenty two, your cherry picking data, Mark, Well, September twenty
Speaker 1: twenty two, two years ago, it's up two hundred and
Speaker 1: forty percent. You're starting to see the math. All right,
Speaker 1: So what we want to do is we want to
Speaker 1: find the faster boats, and we want to find the
Speaker 1: assets that have the best and stippies. Now, which are those, well,
Speaker 1: those are the assets that fall in this fifty year
Speaker 1: quantum wave cycle typically technology cycles. If you want to
Speaker 1: know more about the quantum wave and the fifty year
Speaker 1: cycles and what assets are in those, then you might
Speaker 1: want to watch this video right here. Otherwise, forget the election,
Speaker 1: focus on your investments. The markets are up fifteen percent
Speaker 1: in three years. All right, that's what I got to
Speaker 1: your success. I'm out