Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern
Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Okay, two hour conversation Frankly got Man Deep coming in
Speaker 2: a moment. Frankly is with hs BC. Frank what did
Speaker 2: the Nvidia earnings say to Microsoft? What did they tell Apple?
Speaker 2: What did they tell Amazon?
Speaker 3: I think the key messaging is that Nvideo needs to
Speaker 3: change up their narrative a bit, right. I think you
Speaker 3: know what they did here this quarter was quite interesting
Speaker 3: is how they reclassified their data center revenues. They broke
Speaker 3: it down between the hyperscalers and the non hyperscalers, and
Speaker 3: I think this is what investors ultimately want to see,
Speaker 3: is you know, the growth in the non hyperscalers continue
Speaker 3: to show that they're gaining share there. And I think
Speaker 3: that's the next big narrative that really that the stock
Speaker 3: needs to really see a bigger rerating.
Speaker 4: I'm looking at a Nvidia here again. I thought the
Speaker 4: results were just really solid. The stock's pretty much unchanged
Speaker 4: on the market here on the day here pre market
Speaker 4: trading two hundred and twenty three dollars pretty much unchanged.
Speaker 4: But stocks had obviously a good run of twenty percent
Speaker 4: year to date seventy percent of trailing twelve months. So, Frank,
Speaker 4: I mean, what's the next step for a story like
Speaker 4: in Vidia here, because I look out there and I
Speaker 4: see competition building, whether it's a MD of the world
Speaker 4: or some other players, even Intel.
Speaker 5: What's what's the next step for this story here?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: So I think that's exactly the point is that the
Speaker 3: beaten raised numbers don't really do much anymore. You know,
Speaker 3: the you know, a strong AI GP ROWMP doesn't do
Speaker 3: that much anymore.
Speaker 2: So what they need to do is.
Speaker 3: Really focus on growth in non hyperscillar customers. And so
Speaker 3: I think you know, they talked about it last year
Speaker 3: with the enterprise and sovereignty I but they didn't break
Speaker 3: down revenues for people that get much comfort around you know,
Speaker 3: how much step business is really growing now it's almost
Speaker 3: fifty to fifty split.
Speaker 6: So that's a good start.
Speaker 3: But I think from here, you know, what they need
Speaker 3: to show is, you know that the non hyperscalers continue
Speaker 3: to grow more because, as you said, competition on a
Speaker 3: humpy scare copex is intense. They need to compete with
Speaker 3: memory networking service CPUs, A bunch of people.
Speaker 2: Frank for Global Wall Street. They got a way to
Speaker 2: average cost to camp I got, I got debt costs
Speaker 2: three tenths of a percent ninety nine point seven percent equity.
Speaker 2: You know they're popping the dividend huge. Is Jenson trying
Speaker 2: to make this a blue chip stock? I mean, if
Speaker 2: I see the share buyback in the explosive dividend growth,
Speaker 2: is he basically doing a Tim Cook act?
Speaker 3: I think, you know, I think there were some expectations
Speaker 3: going into his earnings print that there was going to
Speaker 3: be a big buyback and evidence would go up. But
Speaker 3: I think what you're talking about, though, is that it's
Speaker 3: at the end of the day, it's a tech grow stock.
Speaker 3: And if you're a tech grows stock, people aren't buying
Speaker 3: you because of buybacks and because of dividends. They want
Speaker 3: to buy you because you're investing and you're going to
Speaker 3: continue to grow. So I think we've seen companies try
Speaker 3: that in the past. But I think if you are
Speaker 3: if you are a high growth stock, as we are
Speaker 3: in a high growth area AI, I don't think it
Speaker 3: carries out much weight.
Speaker 2: Where is their constraint? Is there operating officers within the
Speaker 2: whole mix of Nvidio when they wake up, what's their
Speaker 2: biggest headache?
Speaker 3: Well, I think there's a lot of areas that continue
Speaker 3: to be bottlenecks.
Speaker 6: Right.
Speaker 3: We've talked about, you know, the packaging sign for the
Speaker 3: last few years. And what's very interesting is in Video's
Speaker 3: recent deals in the last couple of months with a
Speaker 3: lot of the optical companies like Coherent Lumentum, that illustrates
Speaker 3: that they also see a bottleneck when it comes to
Speaker 3: the optical components. So that's why I think they're locking
Speaker 3: in these deals to make sure they have supply there.
Speaker 2: I mean, Paul, I'm trying to find something negative here.
Speaker 2: I'm trying to be you know, everything's plus plus plus.
Speaker 2: The guy with the leather jacket eating noodles in Beijing,
Speaker 2: you're ready ten year return sixty eight percent of a year.
Speaker 2: I'm trying to be negative.
Speaker 4: Maybe the biggest one is just at of large numbers here.
Speaker 4: So talk to us about governments here. I mean, if
Speaker 4: I think about potential new customers, how about the United States, government,
Speaker 4: everybody's deploying AI into their business models. How about government
Speaker 4: entities around the world, how do we think about how
Speaker 4: do we size that market?
Speaker 3: Yeah, so that's that's a great point because that's the
Speaker 3: whole issue with sovereign AI.
Speaker 6: Which is government entities.
Speaker 3: Right, And so this builds into the thesis that there
Speaker 3: is a big tam out there outside of these you know,
Speaker 3: major hyper skillers, and they've been talking about it, but
Speaker 3: the market hasn't been convinced because we haven't seen the
Speaker 3: numbers to back that up. But I do think this
Speaker 3: again is reclassification is a first step. Right now we
Speaker 3: can actually see more clearly if the non hyperscilic growth
Speaker 3: is coming through. But I think on your earlier point
Speaker 3: and of you know, everything's going great, So what's the problem.
Speaker 3: I think the problem is they're the A student in
Speaker 3: the classroom, and right now the market wants to basically
Speaker 3: look at the C student that might become an A student.
Speaker 6: Right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's beautiful. Paul I was going to say, any
Speaker 2: A students in the room, good night.
Speaker 6: He just walked in.
Speaker 2: He'll be get one more in here with frankly.
Speaker 4: So, Frank, is there a technological threshold that we should
Speaker 4: be looking for next. Is there a new speed, Is
Speaker 4: there a new chip? Is there a new capability that we.
Speaker 7: Should be looking for in Vidia to lead the sector.
Speaker 3: I think this is a great point. The real map
Speaker 3: doesn't matter as much as it used to. It used
Speaker 3: to be that Okay and Video had the best ship,
Speaker 3: it was leading everybody. But now I think what they
Speaker 3: really need is a new narrative, right, and they spent
Speaker 3: more time talking about server CPUs now because this year
Speaker 3: the big ten, the big trend has been agentic AI
Speaker 3: and suddenly now CPU has gone from you know, a
Speaker 3: runover with nobody cared about too. Oh, this is the
Speaker 3: next big thing now with the dentak ai. And so
Speaker 3: I think in Vidia has pivoted now to talk about
Speaker 3: a CPU market.
Speaker 2: Frank really appreciate. Why don't you publish it? Frank you
Speaker 2: publishing within the hour? Can you give us a head
Speaker 2: start on it? I'm kidding, I'm kidding, Frankly, thank you
Speaker 2: so much with HSBC here on Nvidia, Stay with us.
Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or
Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: This is a really, really important Conversationshelle, you can dude,
Speaker 2: excuse me, Vishal. It goes back to Calvert and then
Speaker 2: to eaton Vans and now with Morgan Stanley doing broad
Speaker 2: market fixed income with a real engineering bent to it.
Speaker 2: I love at the back end of your note you
Speaker 2: say we're slipping into our restrictive status now with a
Speaker 2: FED slip, you know, slipping in with a newslow Describe
Speaker 2: that to our audience how we can become more restrictive
Speaker 2: without a raid hike?
Speaker 7: Morning, Tom.
Speaker 2: Thanks.
Speaker 8: The rate hikes are already in the market. So if
Speaker 8: you were a home or wanting to be a homeowner today,
Speaker 8: you're already being mortgage rates as if the FED at
Speaker 8: height twice yesterday. That's what your tenure mortgage is going
Speaker 8: to be priced off of. So we believe that the market,
Speaker 8: like the old cliche goes, has already done a lot
Speaker 8: of the heavy lifting for Kevin worsh coming in on Friday.
Speaker 4: So what do you make of the bond market of
Speaker 4: the last couple weeks here we've had a big, big
Speaker 4: lift industrates that the thirty year which were going to
Speaker 4: talk about as much as you know, well North at
Speaker 4: five percent, we haven't seen that in a while.
Speaker 5: What's going on in your market quite a bit.
Speaker 8: The actually, if you go back, there were almost like
Speaker 8: three phases if you will, of the cell of starting
Speaker 8: March first, no technicals. It was a massive macro shift
Speaker 8: coming from a massive inflation shock in countries that import.
Speaker 7: The inflation shock was priced into be.
Speaker 8: Much longer lingering, and the expectations, and we were included
Speaker 8: in that, was that at these high oil prices at
Speaker 8: a sustained time, a sustained period, it will have some
Speaker 8: demand destruction of growth will be off. We're still squinting
Speaker 8: our eyes. That's start in the economic data, and then
Speaker 8: the earnings come along, and the next two phases were
Speaker 8: only led by real yields rather than break evens ex expanding.
Speaker 8: So growth has been very resilient throughout this and you
Speaker 8: can blame the case shiped economy or upper end of
Speaker 8: the KSE shaped economy, or the AI infrastructure spend. And
Speaker 8: then the last probably two days I would say that
Speaker 8: has been very clearly we've seen glimpses of technical selling
Speaker 8: where convexity headers have to reduce the duration in their
Speaker 8: book and has extended out. So you've seen some of
Speaker 8: that price action go through.
Speaker 2: All right, you're a Boston guy.
Speaker 4: You're probably heading out to your mansion on Cape con
Speaker 4: or Nantucket this weekend. People are gonna want to talk
Speaker 4: to you about clipping coupons here. You can get some
Speaker 4: really nice income. Is that what I actually be doing
Speaker 4: here in your world?
Speaker 7: Fantastic coupons right now?
Speaker 8: I think? And then the other two bits there is
Speaker 8: that you have so much question right now. Two year
Speaker 8: at the end of December twenty twenty one, just before
Speaker 8: the massive sell off in twenty two started off at
Speaker 8: seventy eight basis points. You started off end of feb
Speaker 8: here in twenty six at about three sixty somewhere around there.
Speaker 8: At this point, if you buy a two year note,
Speaker 8: you can withstand about two hundred and fifty basis points
Speaker 8: of sell off before you even get into the negative territory.
Speaker 2: Of quarter or done getting out of Gilbert was just
Speaker 2: on a TD and he says, look, he got a
Speaker 2: real yield in the thirty year back to where I
Speaker 2: was in two thousand and eight two thousand and seventy
Speaker 2: three percent. Simon White writing off our London Desk, a
Speaker 2: brilliant story that went worldwide yesterday. On these new high
Speaker 2: and f adjust yields, what's the most efficacious way to
Speaker 2: play the real yield?
Speaker 8: I think break evans have moved to a point where
Speaker 8: we don't see as much value as we saw probably
Speaker 8: four weeks back, So we've actually shifted a little bit
Speaker 8: to that nominal on the seven year point. Given there
Speaker 8: are two hikes being priced in by the end of
Speaker 8: twenty seven, and then there's probably about twenty twenty two
Speaker 8: basis points of hike being priced in by the end
Speaker 8: of this year, so we believe that there's quite a
Speaker 8: bit coming back to your first one.
Speaker 2: It's got a y you know, to Paul's point, you
Speaker 2: know you're out in Nantucket, you get to Hinckley Bermuda. Sure,
Speaker 2: you know you're hanging and you've got to clip a copot.
Speaker 2: I mean you're going to go out and grab nominal
Speaker 2: or real ten uere or twenty or thirty year or
Speaker 2: brave enough to buy Japanese forty year.
Speaker 8: In the US seven to ten years do fantastic. It's
Speaker 8: not an inflation lingering story. I do get the point
Speaker 8: that inflation will be here or at least for a
Speaker 8: quarter or two, and you'll see it in the prices,
Speaker 8: But nominals will do fantastic from that perspective. In that bit,
Speaker 8: if you're a foreign investor and have the benefit of
Speaker 8: hedging the currency back into your domestic domestic liabilities, I
Speaker 8: think Japanese long and yields also are fantastic given the
Speaker 8: steepness in the curve there.
Speaker 2: If the war ended somehow, the war ended, oil goes
Speaker 2: under ninety dollars a barrel. How many basis points does
Speaker 2: a ten year come in? Have you modeled it out
Speaker 2: in your.
Speaker 7: Twenty five approximately?
Speaker 8: We think that there is that extra bit of technical selling,
Speaker 8: extra bit of premium that is built in through the
Speaker 8: almost like malaise from lack of clarity that we are in.
Speaker 8: So four twenty five is, we think, is the first
Speaker 8: stop the moon. We get some clear clarity, not just
Speaker 8: another headline.
Speaker 4: How much credit risk should investors be taking here?
Speaker 8: I think we are much more focused on getting credit
Speaker 8: risk in the secure dice market, where you have secure
Speaker 8: balance sheets, you have something to go after because spread
Speaker 8: are not as compensatory for the risks that you're taking
Speaker 8: on spread durations increasing. You're seeing a lot of AI
Speaker 8: capex infrastructure spend coming through the investment great corporate market
Speaker 8: or the high heal market at this point as well,
Speaker 8: so secure balance sheets. That's where we find you're compensated
Speaker 8: as a fixed.
Speaker 7: Income investor for that extra premium.
Speaker 4: All right, asking for a friend in a high tax
Speaker 4: district municipal bonds, how about.
Speaker 8: That screamingly cheap at this point you go to a
Speaker 8: tax district which is taxing you a lot more. Yep,
Speaker 8: you get extra basis points apart from that twenty twenty
Speaker 8: five years high in twenty thirty year years, you are
Speaker 8: at this point versus treasuries. So yes, extremely attractive for
Speaker 8: high state, high tax states.
Speaker 2: Michelle, thank you so much as you friend, Did you
Speaker 2: get friend get enough? Yeology, Yeah, very good. Thanks Paul
Speaker 2: Ladder Sweeney we call them for sho can did you
Speaker 2: thank you so much? How to broad market's fixed income
Speaker 2: it Morgan Stanley and of course all the efforts of
Speaker 2: eating Vase up in Boston. Stay with us. More from
Speaker 2: Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch US live
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
Speaker 1: Apple Karplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,
Speaker 1: or watch US live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Let's turn Notan joins us right now for a brief
Speaker 2: for the Economic Cycle Research Institute ACARY. What did God's
Speaker 2: name to cycles say now about our enjoyable inflation? Ooh up.
Speaker 5: In a word, we're going to see a four percent print. Well, directionally,
Speaker 5: we're headed in the upward direction. And the interesting thing
Speaker 5: is that it's emphatic on the US and it was
Speaker 5: pre war. It's happening in Europe, it's happening in Asia,
Speaker 5: in Japan. And so I was listening to your segment
Speaker 5: before on currencies. Right, Look, everybody's whether they know it
Speaker 5: or not, they're underlying inflation. Cycle is up and so
Speaker 5: it's all relative after that, and you have cycles and inflation,
Speaker 5: and of course you have cycles and growth. Now the US,
Speaker 5: it's true, we're knocking it out of the park, right.
Speaker 5: I've been saying, hey, there's no window vulnerability. I've been
Speaker 5: super consistent on that, including around the Iran war, and
Speaker 5: that continues to be the case. And underneath, it gets
Speaker 5: a little messy. It's a K shaped economy. Underneath, the
Speaker 5: pain is real on the lower end of the K,
Speaker 5: they're really getting squeezed by the higher prices. What's going
Speaker 5: to happen here, I think is quite interesting because we
Speaker 5: have our cyclical view, Tom that you're just saying, what
Speaker 5: the heck the cycles say? So you have this near
Speaker 5: term cyclical view, that's what the snapshot is. But then
Speaker 5: you look at the patterns of all this mistakes in
Speaker 5: reading the cyclical stuff. And there is a hope that
Speaker 5: oil comes down, and sure, I hope it does too.
Speaker 5: It let's say it. Let's insist that it will. The
Speaker 5: price of oil will come down. Yeah, And everybody says
Speaker 5: it's temporary.
Speaker 2: Jeffrey Moore has never faced these unknown unknowns that we
Speaker 2: have right now.
Speaker 5: Well, no, I don't think that's true. We faced them,
Speaker 5: and we've seen the misread on the cycle time and
Speaker 5: time again. In two thousand and seven, the FED thought
Speaker 5: that stimulus had headed off a recession inside of a
Speaker 5: recession six months inside, the FED led the market to
Speaker 5: price in one hundred basis points of hikes. That's a
Speaker 5: huge mistake. The cycle read. That thing perfectly. In the
Speaker 5: middle of the teens twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen, the FED thought, hey,
Speaker 5: structural healing is done, we could start raising rates.
Speaker 2: Dead wrong.
Speaker 5: The FIG read that very clearly and remembered COVID twenty
Speaker 5: twenty two. That was the famous Oh it's it's temporary,
Speaker 5: don't it's transitory? Was the word, don't worry about it. No,
Speaker 5: the FIG nailed that thing, and the FED was so
Speaker 5: late they didn't start hiking until March of twenty twenty two.
Speaker 7: What a mess.
Speaker 5: Now that What did they learn from all this? This
Speaker 5: is the amazing part. Later on they do a big
Speaker 5: investigation for a couple of years and they they believe
Speaker 5: that skilled monetary policy had caused structural downshift and inflation,
Speaker 5: and so that's why they could leave a transitory. That's
Speaker 5: kind of a Bonker's conclusion. Quite frankly. Cycles happen no
Speaker 5: matter what. And so right now, what I'm worried about
Speaker 5: is we're either going to get the Maestro right the nineties,
Speaker 5: which is fun, or we're going to get Burns, which
Speaker 5: is the seventies, which is not fun.
Speaker 2: The first person, this is brilliant.
Speaker 5: Okay, We're going to get green span or Burns, and
Speaker 5: I'm not sure who right. I got to watch the
Speaker 5: thing right now, the FING is saying up. Let's say
Speaker 5: Warsh wants to as soon as he can cut if
Speaker 5: oil comes down or if AI product.
Speaker 6: Comes to interrupt.
Speaker 2: And you know this well because you live over there
Speaker 2: half the time. Are we going to get Mervyn king
Speaker 2: where the governors and presidents tells Chairman Worsh what to do.
Speaker 5: I don't think so. I think there's a huge political pressure.
Speaker 5: That's why I'm a little worried about the burn situation.
Speaker 5: If you have the FIG going up and you have
Speaker 5: huge political pressure to not hike, you get a lot
Speaker 5: of volatility because you have If you make a mistake
Speaker 5: on policy on a cyclical basis, it doesn't smooth the
Speaker 5: cycle out. It makes the cycle bigger. And so that's
Speaker 5: what I'm worried about. If Worsh starts going towards or
Speaker 5: the FED starts going towards hikes and it cuts, excuse me,
Speaker 5: and the FIG is still going up. Buckle your seat belts.
Speaker 5: That's going to get bouncy, but it could get bailed
Speaker 5: out if the FIG turns down. And I don't know,
Speaker 5: I don't predict the predictors. If the FIG should turn down,
Speaker 5: then you might get the Maestro to look like the maestro.
Speaker 5: The mistake here is if oil comes down, it doesn't
Speaker 5: mean in all clear look at core. The FIG is
Speaker 5: looking at the cycles and core. And if core keeps
Speaker 5: moving up, which is it is doing in the US,
Speaker 5: it's doing it in Europe, and is doing it in Japan.
Speaker 5: It's doing it whether you want to watch it or not,
Speaker 5: It's happening. And that's the risk here and on growth.
Speaker 5: Right now, I've been saying window vulnerability shut and that
Speaker 5: remains to be the case long leading indicators of growth.
Speaker 5: The shine has come off, so that gets interesting later.
Speaker 4: So I guess a lot of investors are just trying
Speaker 4: to figure out how much of this inflation story that
Speaker 4: we see in the US and around the world is
Speaker 4: directly from the war in Iran and all the ripple
Speaker 4: effects versus more underlying stuff.
Speaker 5: A great question, and I think everybody's missing the forest
Speaker 5: for the trees literally. I think it is not it's
Speaker 5: not about oil. Oil is moving the headline around. I
Speaker 5: think the big mistake here is if oil comes down.
Speaker 5: Let's say the sky's clear and oil comes down, or
Speaker 5: it stops rising and people get used to it and say, Okay,
Speaker 5: we're fine, it's an inflationary boom. We're fine. Right, the
Speaker 5: core is going to keep going up, and that ultimately
Speaker 5: is a problem. And you see the rate market is
Speaker 5: starting to try to wonder about this. Real rates are
Speaker 5: got to we gotta run launchman. But how do you
Speaker 5: interpret the new rate and the new real yield that
Speaker 5: they're kind of feeling that the Fed is going to
Speaker 5: make a mistake. They're going to mix up the structural
Speaker 5: with the cyclical. And that's my fear too, because they've
Speaker 5: done it five times in a row over several decades.
Speaker 2: Okay, just up at Bard College, folks doing a wonderful event.
Speaker 2: Was Sheila bar at Bard College? And we know Lachmenajathon's
Speaker 2: real commitment to that institution. The views, Okay, are you
Speaker 2: kidding me? Oh my god, it's Paul. Have you been
Speaker 2: up there? It's spectacular. It's like, you know, it's kids
Speaker 2: walking around learning Greek and Latin.
Speaker 5: And you know, the whole liberal are thing, and on
Speaker 5: the river with a beautiful house and garden.
Speaker 2: It's like tough and black flies. It's on something. Good
Speaker 2: morning to Bard College and all the good people out there. Latchman,
Speaker 2: thank you.
Speaker 5: All right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well we'll talk about that next time. Lotch went
Speaker 2: at that greed. Thank you. Stay with us. More from
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us Live
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
Speaker 1: Apple Karplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,
Speaker 1: or watch us Live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: This is our conversation of the day. Ivan finds it
Speaker 2: is incredibly grizzled in the technology area. Ivan, what's the
Speaker 2: number one thing you got rog and tech? Give me
Speaker 2: give me a buy hold cell where you just didn't
Speaker 2: get it right at Tiger's financial which.
Speaker 9: Is the one you regret. Well, so far I've been disappointed,
Speaker 9: and don't I've been a bull on Quest for a
Speaker 9: long time. That finally caught fire. I was early on
Speaker 9: en VIDI I mean on Intel. I've been saying Intel
Speaker 9: would regain his former glory.
Speaker 6: But so far.
Speaker 9: ILB, which is a very powerful AI creation driven creation platform,
Speaker 9: as yet to be recognized that I think the contribution
Speaker 9: it makes in content development.
Speaker 2: So that's one I have and I'm going to shout
Speaker 2: out Charles cantrit new bigger bourbon on this. Everybody's looking
Speaker 2: at Adobe management going what is going on? Ivan? I
Speaker 2: want you to interpret the AI IPOs that are coming
Speaker 2: down the block. You're more you're just so qualified at this.
Speaker 2: How do you look at anthropic ipo? Paul help me here?
Speaker 2: Open AI is another one, Ivan, how do you translate those? Well?
Speaker 9: I mean there's my favorite is still perplexity. I like,
Speaker 9: you know chat GPT that seems to give me good
Speaker 9: information and good data. I think on a lot of
Speaker 9: these when you are looking for specific data on things,
Speaker 9: I find it does help to quantify the time period
Speaker 9: because sometimes it defaults to different, you know.
Speaker 6: Older time periods.
Speaker 9: But there is going to be a lot of interest
Speaker 9: in these I pos, at least in the beginning. Then
Speaker 9: they're going to have to perform. I still think one
Speaker 9: of the best AI players that's not getting the respect
Speaker 9: I think it deserves as Microsoft, But it seems now
Speaker 9: to turn again. I mean, they have a very powerful
Speaker 9: AI platform and Azure, and I don't know if they're
Speaker 9: gaining the traction that everybody has expected.
Speaker 6: Copilot. But again co Pilot is.
Speaker 9: It still is driving revenue and they are getting more
Speaker 9: and more subscriptions now that they've shifted to target to
Speaker 9: do more commercial or business users.
Speaker 2: But okay, I got to get this headline out, Paul.
Speaker 2: This is too important to Microsoft up one percent instantly
Speaker 2: anthropic in talks to use Microsoft AI chips from Information.
Speaker 2: Thank you Alexis for that earlier y apsolutely.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 4: I mean we've seen more and more headlines and the
Speaker 4: AI story just gating momentum. I haven't you know, we've
Speaker 4: had the SpaceX ipo out there in the marketplace maybe.
Speaker 2: Eighteen hours here today.
Speaker 4: How do you think the marketplace will approach this company,
Speaker 4: this ipo?
Speaker 5: I mean, the size is just staggering.
Speaker 4: How do you think the markets can approach it?
Speaker 9: Very There's huge interest, very enthusiastically. I mean, finally, after
Speaker 9: a forty year hiatus of focusing on space, you know,
Speaker 9: we're returning to that. And the ability to with the
Speaker 9: computing power and AI to actually move this forward also
Speaker 9: is going to make help make huge leaps. So there's
Speaker 9: going to be a lot of interest. Everybody loves space.
Speaker 9: I mean, I remember I've been around, so I remember
Speaker 9: the Apollo launches and how exciting that was, and a
Speaker 9: lot of enthusiasm, and now that it's coming back, I
Speaker 9: think in an even more receptive environment with a lot
Speaker 9: more interest. So I think the SpaceX ipo is going
Speaker 9: to be very well received. Is this even massive size?
Speaker 4: Yeah, massive size, And you know a lot of folks
Speaker 4: or some folks may get hung up on no matter
Speaker 4: how you try, and no matter how many years you
Speaker 4: go out, the valuation just makes no sense. But one
Speaker 4: can make that similar argument for the life of Tesla
Speaker 4: as well, and that's worked out.
Speaker 2: How do you think about.
Speaker 4: Valuations for some of these really big companies that have
Speaker 4: really long term outlooks.
Speaker 9: It's having faith in the future. But I also say,
Speaker 9: if you like Space, you gotta like Boeing.
Speaker 2: Yep, yep. But what's your single best guy here before
Speaker 2: we go Ivan, what's your single best buy right now?
Speaker 9: Well, I think big cap tech is Microsoft an interesting
Speaker 9: play in a lot of different areas. We just put
Speaker 9: out a new report yesterday on Garman up to our
Speaker 9: price target to three twenty five.
Speaker 6: The stock is like two thirty seven right now.
Speaker 9: This is a play in so many areas as far
Speaker 9: as especially in health and wellness AI driven health and
Speaker 9: wellness functionality.
Speaker 6: So I think right here. Garment is one of my
Speaker 6: favorite stocks.
Speaker 2: Did you talk to Bill Ackman about this on Microsoft?
Speaker 2: Has he shown a commitment there with Pershy?
Speaker 6: I have not spoken to him directly on that.
Speaker 9: We interesting left Wear one of the underwriters of the
Speaker 9: IPO for his management company, Pershing Square and the Pershing
Speaker 9: Square closed end fund he just launched. And you know,
Speaker 9: I think the timing is perfect for Microsoft. He was
Speaker 9: righted to launch the fund at the time we saw
Speaker 9: a pullback in a lot of tech stocks.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much. I've bean with I have a
Speaker 2: fine sight there with a thought on Microsoft again. We
Speaker 2: protect the copyright of our guests. Go to Tigris Financial
Speaker 2: Partners to get his just really special work day.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each
Speaker 1: weekday seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com,
Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.
Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube
Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal