WEBVTT - Ray Dalio on Failure, Meaningful Work and Relationships

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<v Speaker 1>This is Masters in Business with Barry Ridholts on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>What can I say about this week's podcast? I sit

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<v Speaker 1>down with Ray Dahio of Bridgewater Associates and you have

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<v Speaker 1>to hear the whole thing there. I can't even preface

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<v Speaker 1>it by describing it. He's Ray Dahio. It's awesome. I

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<v Speaker 1>will share a quick story about the first time I

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<v Speaker 1>met Ray. I had been reading various things. He had

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<v Speaker 1>been posted an early version of of Principles, and I

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<v Speaker 1>loved his idea of radical transparency and failure learning from

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<v Speaker 1>failure era mistakes. Failures, they are an opportunity to learn,

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<v Speaker 1>and we should not ignore our mistakes, but we should

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<v Speaker 1>own them and learn from them. And because of that,

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<v Speaker 1>I started doing my annual Mia culpus. I've been doing

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<v Speaker 1>it for about a decade. So I wanted when there

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<v Speaker 1>was an event, I wanted the opportunity to, uh say

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<v Speaker 1>thank you to him. I couldn't get you were near

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<v Speaker 1>the guy after he spoke, where a million institutional salespeople

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<v Speaker 1>all over him. I step outside and I'm just standing there,

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<v Speaker 1>kind of fuming, and I see the scrum coming towards me.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Ray and his assistant and all these salespeople and

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<v Speaker 1>it was sort of like an Andy Cap cartoon with

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<v Speaker 1>these guys all trying to get in there. Eventually he

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<v Speaker 1>is the scrum works its way, so he's like two

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<v Speaker 1>ft from me, and I just looked up and said, hey, Ray,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't have a business card for you. I just

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<v Speaker 1>wanted to say thank you. And he kind of swiveled

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<v Speaker 1>around and looked at me. Who are you. I introduced

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<v Speaker 1>myself and I tell him hey, because of your uh

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<v Speaker 1>concept of of owning mistakes and the value of failure,

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<v Speaker 1>I started posting my Mia Culpaz publicly. Here's where I

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<v Speaker 1>screwed up. Here is what I learned. And we just

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<v Speaker 1>chatted for two or three minutes, and you could feel

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<v Speaker 1>the white hot hate of all these salespeople who were

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<v Speaker 1>looking for uh entree for a commission business with Bridgewater

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<v Speaker 1>and I'm just chit chatting and saying thank you. So

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<v Speaker 1>he and his assistant get in the car with a

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<v Speaker 1>giant stack of papers and folders and stuff you know

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<v Speaker 1>they're throwing out immediately um and I basically said, gee,

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<v Speaker 1>I have to sit down and have a longer conversation

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<v Speaker 1>with that guy. He's pretty fascinating Well here it is

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<v Speaker 1>almost a decade later, with no further ado. My conversation

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<v Speaker 1>with Ray Dalio, my guests this week requires little in

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<v Speaker 1>the way of introduction from me. His name is Ray

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<v Speaker 1>Dalio and he is the founder, chairman, and outgoing CEO

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<v Speaker 1>of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, managing over

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<v Speaker 1>a hundred and sixty billion dollars in assets for institutional clients.

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<v Speaker 1>Ray continues to work as Chief Investment officer there. According

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<v Speaker 1>to Fortune, Bridgewater is the fifth most important private company

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<v Speaker 1>in the United States. They have made more money for

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<v Speaker 1>their clients than any other fund in his stree. His

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<v Speaker 1>new book, Principles, is a New York Times bestseller. Ray Dalio,

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Bloomberg. Thanks nice to be here. I have

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<v Speaker 1>been looking forward to this conversation for so long. Let's

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<v Speaker 1>jump right in with Bridgewater just celebrated its forty anniversary.

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<v Speaker 1>How has the company's evolution surprised you since you first

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<v Speaker 1>launched the firm in the nineteen seventies. Well, it surprises me,

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<v Speaker 1>an every day, every different which way I mean. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know how to summarize it. Uh, you know, I

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<v Speaker 1>started it out of a two bedroom apartment with a

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<v Speaker 1>guy played rugby with and I was just playing my game,

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<v Speaker 1>and I just never imagined that it would be anything

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<v Speaker 1>like this. So you go through to these different phases.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, first phases you have to take care of everything.

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<v Speaker 1>You have to hire people, you hire your pals. Then

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<v Speaker 1>you realize that you have to manage people, and then

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<v Speaker 1>you have to you know, I had to get the

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<v Speaker 1>file cabinets myself and all that. Then you get people

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<v Speaker 1>who get the file cabinets, and then you have to

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<v Speaker 1>manage them that. You know, it goes through all of

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<v Speaker 1>its phases, and now, um, I'm at the wonderful phase

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<v Speaker 1>of being able to transition out of the management and

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<v Speaker 1>make other people successful. So I'm now a phase in

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<v Speaker 1>my life which I'm describing as entering the third phase

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<v Speaker 1>of my life of transitioning so that I'm making other

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<v Speaker 1>people successful. So every phase is different, you know, lots

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<v Speaker 1>of surprises. So let me tell you what surprised me.

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<v Speaker 1>In principles, in the first part of the book that

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<v Speaker 1>describes your history, you had roles in the creation of

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<v Speaker 1>each of the following products tips, the inflation protected treasury bonds,

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<v Speaker 1>US dollar futures, index, risk parity China's stock market, and

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<v Speaker 1>chicken McNuggets. Let's discuss each of those, but I have

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<v Speaker 1>to start with the outlier, chicken McNuggets. What was your

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<v Speaker 1>role when chicken McNuggets, Well, you know, I was trading commodities.

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<v Speaker 1>And when I say trading commodities down at a very

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<v Speaker 1>basic level of understanding. You know, how many pounds of

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<v Speaker 1>feed went in to a chicken or beef, uh, and

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<v Speaker 1>how that would grow. I liked it because it was

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<v Speaker 1>very mechanical and there was not no greater fool theory.

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<v Speaker 1>You know. The value of the meat was whatever it

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<v Speaker 1>sold for at the counter. And at the time that time,

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<v Speaker 1>I had institutional clients who were uh, you know, hedging,

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<v Speaker 1>and McDonald's was a client of mine, and some chicken

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<v Speaker 1>producers were clients of money main processing. Yeah, and um

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<v Speaker 1>McDonald's wanted to They came up with the idea of

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<v Speaker 1>the chicken McNugget. But the big problem that they had

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<v Speaker 1>at the time is there was a lot of volatility

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<v Speaker 1>in prices, in chicken prices, mostly because there was grain prices.

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<v Speaker 1>A chick is a tiny thing, it doesn't cost much,

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<v Speaker 1>but it's all the grain, and so they were worried

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<v Speaker 1>about you put out these at a fixed price on

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<v Speaker 1>the menu, and then the price volatility could kill them.

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<v Speaker 1>So they wanted to buy chicken at a fixed price.

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<v Speaker 1>But nobody produced chicken at a fixed price because there

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<v Speaker 1>was no chicken futures market. So I went to the

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<v Speaker 1>Lane processing and I said, would you like to do this?

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<v Speaker 1>And I calculated how they could essentially hedge their cost

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<v Speaker 1>by buying corn and soy meal futures, and then they

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<v Speaker 1>locked in the price for chicken McNuggets. And I loved

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<v Speaker 1>really commodities then I love that story. It's so fascinating

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<v Speaker 1>how a little bit of financial engineering and lo and

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<v Speaker 1>behold you have a consistent price for chicken. It was cool. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>and you did um dollar futures index. Was that with

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<v Speaker 1>Paul Tutor Jones volatility and the dollar and then he figured,

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<v Speaker 1>let's put together a basket and uh so we put

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<v Speaker 1>together a basket. We designed it, how it would it work.

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<v Speaker 1>We did the same thing with the CRB futures. It's engineering.

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<v Speaker 1>You've got to understand engineering. You have to understand the mechanics.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a fair basic fundamental thing whatever you do. And

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<v Speaker 1>so we understood a lot about engineering. I put together

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<v Speaker 1>those products. What about your role in the development of

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<v Speaker 1>China's equity markets, Well, yeah, I into there. I started

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<v Speaker 1>going nineteen eighty four to China, and uh because not

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<v Speaker 1>not for business or anything, because it was an interesting place.

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<v Speaker 1>Um and a matter of fact, the company that invited me, Siddek,

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<v Speaker 1>was the only company in China that was allowed to

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<v Speaker 1>deal with the outside world. They called it a window company. Anyway,

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<v Speaker 1>as they started to in night nine, start to think

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<v Speaker 1>about we need financial markets. There were seven people who

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<v Speaker 1>were in a room and that it was sort of

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<v Speaker 1>a dingy hotel room, and they had to start to

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<v Speaker 1>think about the markets. And I got to know them

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<v Speaker 1>and we started to think about how they would develop

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<v Speaker 1>a stock market, a bond market, and so on. So

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<v Speaker 1>I got to be a participant in that, and that

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<v Speaker 1>was a blast. These people have become, you know, lifelong friends,

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<v Speaker 1>so you know, since that time until now, we've been friends.

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<v Speaker 1>And then they've gone on to develop the fabulous financial

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<v Speaker 1>markets that are there and I'm still there. So it's great.

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<v Speaker 1>You know what I like is I like meaningful work

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<v Speaker 1>and meaningful relationships. I like work that I can get

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<v Speaker 1>my head into and I'm having an impact that's great,

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<v Speaker 1>and I love the meaningful relationships. If you could do

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<v Speaker 1>this with people you like over a period of time,

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<v Speaker 1>that's even the greatest reward. That phrase meaningful work and

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<v Speaker 1>meaningful relationships comes up in Principles over and over, not

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<v Speaker 1>just in the history but in the Life Principles part,

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<v Speaker 1>and it seems to be applied in the Work Principles part.

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<v Speaker 1>Tell us what led you to those two elements? Well, look,

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<v Speaker 1>I want it. I mean personally, I want the meaningful

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<v Speaker 1>work that I get excited about to be on a mission,

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<v Speaker 1>and then I love the meaningful relationships. It's as much

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<v Speaker 1>important to me as whatever business with success. And if

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<v Speaker 1>you put those two things together, being on a mission

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<v Speaker 1>with people who you love and that great mission mission,

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<v Speaker 1>it's um double rewards. And then it also reinforces each

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<v Speaker 1>other because if you're if you're doing in the meaningful

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<v Speaker 1>work and you have the meaningful relationships, you can be

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<v Speaker 1>tough with each other and you um, you know, you

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<v Speaker 1>get the devotion. The people who work at Bridgewater, a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of them who work there for a long time,

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<v Speaker 1>they would never think of working anywhere else because it's

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<v Speaker 1>like an extended family. You have to understand that money

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<v Speaker 1>as a reward, UH, is not a very satisfying reward

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<v Speaker 1>really in comparison to the meaningful relationships if you do.

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<v Speaker 1>Studies have been done on happiness right, and they said,

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<v Speaker 1>there's very little correlation between the amount of money that

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<v Speaker 1>you have passed a certain basic point. Once the basis

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<v Speaker 1>have covered, there's a diminishing returns, not much correlation. The

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<v Speaker 1>number one thing in source of happiness across countries everywhere

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<v Speaker 1>is a sense of community. So if you have both

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<v Speaker 1>of those things great or So I wanted those meaningful

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<v Speaker 1>work and reading for relationships, and then in order to

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<v Speaker 1>have those, I wanted to be radically truthful and radically

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<v Speaker 1>transparent with each other. Because if I'm going to have

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<v Speaker 1>a relationship with you or the people around me, I

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<v Speaker 1>need to have an idea meritocracy in which we are

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<v Speaker 1>radically truthful and radically transparent. And that's how the culture began,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's how what the culture is. You know, in

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<v Speaker 1>a nutshell, the culture is an idea meritocracy in the words,

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<v Speaker 1>the best ideas win out, UH, in which we're going

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<v Speaker 1>for meaningful work and meaningful relationships through being radically truthful

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<v Speaker 1>and radically transparent and that's been the key to the success.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's talk a little bit about mistakes. You describe mistakes

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<v Speaker 1>as opportunities to learn and improve, saying, the key to

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<v Speaker 1>success in life is learning how to fail well. Discuss well.

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<v Speaker 1>I think in order to be successful you have to

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<v Speaker 1>do five things. Basically, First, you have to know what

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<v Speaker 1>your goals your dreams are, and on the way to

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<v Speaker 1>going after those goals and dreams, you're going to encounter

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<v Speaker 1>your failures and your mistakes. A lot people think that

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<v Speaker 1>that's painful. Uh, those are your learning opportunity. So I

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<v Speaker 1>was saying pain plus reflection equals progress. In other words,

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<v Speaker 1>reflect what would you have done differently. So first step goals.

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<v Speaker 1>Second step problems on the way to goals, not tolering them.

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<v Speaker 1>Third step, you have to diagnose those problems to get

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<v Speaker 1>at the root causes. Many of those times, the root

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<v Speaker 1>causes is you how you're handling it. So you've got

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<v Speaker 1>to learn a lesson. Most people learn lessons through painful mistakes,

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<v Speaker 1>So I associate painful mistakes with learning. Okay, so first

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<v Speaker 1>goals problems. Then diagnose those problems to the root cause,

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<v Speaker 1>make a design of what you're going to do differently

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<v Speaker 1>In the future when the next one comes along. Those

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<v Speaker 1>are the principles I wrote down those principles. That's what

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<v Speaker 1>the book is mostly about, this collection of principles. So

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<v Speaker 1>number four, design ways of getting around them. Number five,

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<v Speaker 1>do those things pushed through the results. You keep doing

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<v Speaker 1>this over and over and over again, you're going to

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<v Speaker 1>be successful. I have another um little formula that basically

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<v Speaker 1>means that if you have your dreams, plus you embrace reality,

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<v Speaker 1>and you learn from reality, your painful realities, and you

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<v Speaker 1>have enough determination so you keep learning, you will inevitably

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<v Speaker 1>have a successful life. So those are the That's what

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<v Speaker 1>I mean. The value in learning is from mistakes, because

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<v Speaker 1>mistakes cues the fact that you learned something that that

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<v Speaker 1>something is wrong. But you need quality reflection. And when

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<v Speaker 1>I started, when I did this over a period of time,

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<v Speaker 1>my whole attitude started to change. I began to view mistakes, problems, failures.

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<v Speaker 1>I began to view them as puzzles that they were

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<v Speaker 1>curious to me. And if I could solve the puzzle,

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<v Speaker 1>I would get a gem. And the gem I would

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<v Speaker 1>get would be a lesson or a principle of what

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<v Speaker 1>I would do differently in the future. And I wrote

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<v Speaker 1>that down. So a big thing for me, well for

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know, twenty five years, is to write down

0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:11.920
<v Speaker 1>the my principles every time I'm making a decision, writing

0:13:11.960 --> 0:13:14.959
<v Speaker 1>down those principles. And then I found out I can

0:13:15.000 --> 0:13:18.080
<v Speaker 1>convert those principles to decision rules, and I could have

0:13:18.120 --> 0:13:21.480
<v Speaker 1>the computer help me make those decisions because it would reflect.

0:13:21.840 --> 0:13:25.160
<v Speaker 1>And that changed my life. So one of the things

0:13:25.200 --> 0:13:28.600
<v Speaker 1>you wrote that really stood out to me about a

0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:33.200
<v Speaker 1>related topic, you you said you fear boredom and mediocrity

0:13:33.360 --> 0:13:36.640
<v Speaker 1>more than failure, and the line was great is better

0:13:36.679 --> 0:13:41.080
<v Speaker 1>than terrible, but terrible is better than mediocre. Is that

0:13:41.200 --> 0:13:44.720
<v Speaker 1>related to this idea well making mistakes or is it

0:13:44.760 --> 0:13:46.600
<v Speaker 1>really just I don't want to be bored I want

0:13:46.600 --> 0:13:49.360
<v Speaker 1>meaningful work. Well, i'd say it's probably half and half.

0:13:49.400 --> 0:13:52.840
<v Speaker 1>I mean, in other words, I want flavor in my life, right,

0:13:53.440 --> 0:13:57.200
<v Speaker 1>you know, And I don't mind getting banged up a

0:13:57.200 --> 0:13:59.800
<v Speaker 1>little bit on the way to learning. And I love learning.

0:13:59.880 --> 0:14:03.600
<v Speaker 1>I love the evolution. So boredom is the thing that

0:14:03.920 --> 0:14:07.080
<v Speaker 1>is the worst for me. So pain, I can, you know,

0:14:07.160 --> 0:14:09.840
<v Speaker 1>I can deal with some pain. I find even the

0:14:09.880 --> 0:14:14.640
<v Speaker 1>benefit of the pain. It's become almost like failure equals success.

0:14:15.160 --> 0:14:18.000
<v Speaker 1>That's that sounds like a weird thing, fail little process

0:14:18.000 --> 0:14:21.280
<v Speaker 1>in the middle, right, failure equal success. But because I've

0:14:21.280 --> 0:14:26.280
<v Speaker 1>gotten re cued programmed, essentially, what that failure means is

0:14:26.360 --> 0:14:30.640
<v Speaker 1>failure means learning, and that's exciting to me. And then

0:14:30.880 --> 0:14:34.280
<v Speaker 1>it produces success, and that's exciting to me. And that

0:14:34.840 --> 0:14:39.200
<v Speaker 1>changing my instinctual reaction, my need jerk reaction to failure

0:14:39.280 --> 0:14:41.520
<v Speaker 1>gives me a more exciting life and gives me a

0:14:41.560 --> 0:14:44.280
<v Speaker 1>more successful life. So let's talk a little bit about

0:14:44.320 --> 0:14:49.280
<v Speaker 1>that pain and that radical transparency. You write about a

0:14:49.320 --> 0:14:54.520
<v Speaker 1>memo that your staff gave you about quote, raise intractable

0:14:54.560 --> 0:14:58.160
<v Speaker 1>people problem, and I'll spare the details, it's in the book,

0:14:58.560 --> 0:15:01.040
<v Speaker 1>but they really call you out. They really take you

0:15:01.080 --> 0:15:05.720
<v Speaker 1>to task for the way you're interacting with staff. How

0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:08.520
<v Speaker 1>did this peer review affect you? What did this dude

0:15:08.520 --> 0:15:12.440
<v Speaker 1>to impact that philosophy that you've developed. Well, I always,

0:15:12.560 --> 0:15:15.480
<v Speaker 1>I always really wanted that that kind of feedback because

0:15:15.520 --> 0:15:17.960
<v Speaker 1>I wanted to work with independent thinkers who would speak

0:15:18.040 --> 0:15:21.120
<v Speaker 1>up just like I could, radically straightforward. But as the

0:15:21.120 --> 0:15:23.360
<v Speaker 1>company got to get a little bit bigger, and I

0:15:23.440 --> 0:15:25.560
<v Speaker 1>think it was probably like maybe we had eighty five

0:15:25.640 --> 0:15:30.920
<v Speaker 1>people or so then and that straightforwardness was making people

0:15:31.080 --> 0:15:35.720
<v Speaker 1>feel comfortable uncomfortable and I didn't know that. So they

0:15:35.760 --> 0:15:38.480
<v Speaker 1>called me out to dinner and they and they give

0:15:38.520 --> 0:15:40.920
<v Speaker 1>me this memo and they explained to me that I'm

0:15:40.960 --> 0:15:44.960
<v Speaker 1>having this effect of, I don't know, demoralizing people, upsetting people.

0:15:45.360 --> 0:15:47.600
<v Speaker 1>And I didn't want to have that effect, like these

0:15:47.640 --> 0:15:50.200
<v Speaker 1>are the meaningful relationships I wanted to have it. So

0:15:50.440 --> 0:15:53.400
<v Speaker 1>it paused me um to make me think, well, what

0:15:53.480 --> 0:15:56.440
<v Speaker 1>do I do? That's an intractable problem. Am I gonna

0:15:56.480 --> 0:15:59.960
<v Speaker 1>not be as straightforward with them? Can't they be straightforward

0:16:00.080 --> 0:16:02.800
<v Speaker 1>with me? And how am I going to change that?

0:16:02.840 --> 0:16:05.840
<v Speaker 1>Let me interrupt your sect? You're the boss. How these

0:16:05.840 --> 0:16:09.080
<v Speaker 1>people who are feeling wow? Ray really ripped me a

0:16:09.080 --> 0:16:12.040
<v Speaker 1>new one today. Did you really feel they can come

0:16:12.080 --> 0:16:14.400
<v Speaker 1>up to you and say, hey, Ray, even though you're

0:16:14.440 --> 0:16:16.840
<v Speaker 1>the founder and boss, here, here's what you're doing wrong

0:16:16.880 --> 0:16:19.200
<v Speaker 1>and you better cut it out well. In the markets,

0:16:19.640 --> 0:16:22.440
<v Speaker 1>and as an entrepreneur, you've got a bet against the

0:16:22.440 --> 0:16:26.360
<v Speaker 1>consensus and be right. Otherwise you're not any value in

0:16:26.360 --> 0:16:29.920
<v Speaker 1>the markets. The consensus is built into the price, and

0:16:29.960 --> 0:16:32.200
<v Speaker 1>you've got a bet against it and be right. You

0:16:32.240 --> 0:16:35.760
<v Speaker 1>have to be an independent thinker, and you're not sure

0:16:35.800 --> 0:16:39.479
<v Speaker 1>that you're going to be right. So for always, Uh,

0:16:39.560 --> 0:16:41.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, I've gotten my head handed to me enough

0:16:41.640 --> 0:16:45.120
<v Speaker 1>times that I'm scared about being wrong, and as a

0:16:45.200 --> 0:16:48.720
<v Speaker 1>result of that, I want to work with independent thinkers.

0:16:48.760 --> 0:16:51.680
<v Speaker 1>These are the people I respect who can then argue

0:16:51.720 --> 0:16:54.239
<v Speaker 1>back and forth and to try to raise our probabilities

0:16:54.240 --> 0:16:56.320
<v Speaker 1>of being right. So that's part of the process, right,

0:16:56.880 --> 0:17:01.440
<v Speaker 1>and so um that that type of straightforwardness, um is

0:17:01.480 --> 0:17:04.679
<v Speaker 1>not uh easy for people, but that's the way I've

0:17:04.680 --> 0:17:08.399
<v Speaker 1>always operated, That's the way we've operated, and we've institutionalized

0:17:08.440 --> 0:17:11.520
<v Speaker 1>operating that way. But at the time, some people found

0:17:11.560 --> 0:17:16.639
<v Speaker 1>really that uncomfortable. Um, So then we go back. Um,

0:17:16.680 --> 0:17:19.440
<v Speaker 1>I was, you know, in a position where I didn't

0:17:19.440 --> 0:17:21.760
<v Speaker 1>want to do that and I and I didn't also

0:17:21.840 --> 0:17:23.800
<v Speaker 1>not want I didn't want to stop doing it, So

0:17:23.840 --> 0:17:26.720
<v Speaker 1>what should I do? So I thought, I reflected on that,

0:17:27.080 --> 0:17:29.679
<v Speaker 1>and I came up with the idea of let me

0:17:29.800 --> 0:17:32.680
<v Speaker 1>just sit down with the people and decide how are

0:17:32.760 --> 0:17:35.480
<v Speaker 1>we going to be with each other. For example, if

0:17:35.520 --> 0:17:39.080
<v Speaker 1>I have critical thoughts about you, should I tell you

0:17:39.200 --> 0:17:41.560
<v Speaker 1>or should I hold them to myself? If you've got

0:17:41.560 --> 0:17:45.160
<v Speaker 1>critical thoughts about me, should you tell me or should

0:17:45.160 --> 0:17:50.720
<v Speaker 1>you hold them to yourself? If everybody intellectually really says no, no,

0:17:50.840 --> 0:17:54.080
<v Speaker 1>you want to know about those things, right, But emotionally

0:17:54.560 --> 0:17:57.880
<v Speaker 1>then they don't. Uh, they don't like it right. And

0:17:57.960 --> 0:18:02.560
<v Speaker 1>what we discovered really is the two use in everybody,

0:18:02.600 --> 0:18:06.919
<v Speaker 1>there are two use. There's this intellectual, thoughtful you that

0:18:06.960 --> 0:18:09.400
<v Speaker 1>would like to make decisions a certain way, and then

0:18:09.400 --> 0:18:12.639
<v Speaker 1>there's an emotional, subliminal you that you don't even understand

0:18:12.760 --> 0:18:16.080
<v Speaker 1>very well, and it's having a conflict. And so by

0:18:16.160 --> 0:18:19.080
<v Speaker 1>making it very clear with each other, we could establish

0:18:19.160 --> 0:18:21.919
<v Speaker 1>ways of being with each other. That really led me

0:18:22.000 --> 0:18:25.040
<v Speaker 1>to write down a lot of my work principles. In

0:18:25.119 --> 0:18:27.040
<v Speaker 1>other words, Okay, how are we going to be with

0:18:27.080 --> 0:18:29.760
<v Speaker 1>each other? I wrote those down in words, we put

0:18:29.800 --> 0:18:33.119
<v Speaker 1>those together, and then we moved forward. So we had that.

0:18:33.240 --> 0:18:38.400
<v Speaker 1>With that, we established what our unusual way of our operating,

0:18:38.400 --> 0:18:43.840
<v Speaker 1>our unusual culture was with this thoughtful disagreement, this idea meritocracy.

0:18:43.920 --> 0:18:46.840
<v Speaker 1>And it was like a contract. And people realized that

0:18:46.880 --> 0:18:49.880
<v Speaker 1>the struggling wasn't between me and them really as much

0:18:49.880 --> 0:18:52.800
<v Speaker 1>as it was between them and them. There their emotional

0:18:53.040 --> 0:18:55.800
<v Speaker 1>and their intellectual and that changed everything. So the writing

0:18:55.840 --> 0:19:00.440
<v Speaker 1>down the principles changed everything and the realization that everybody

0:19:00.480 --> 0:19:04.000
<v Speaker 1>has those struggles between their thoughtfulness and what they want

0:19:04.080 --> 0:19:07.000
<v Speaker 1>and their emotional self and then you work on getting

0:19:07.000 --> 0:19:09.399
<v Speaker 1>through that. And we found that typically it takes about

0:19:09.440 --> 0:19:12.560
<v Speaker 1>eighteen months to get to a place of, you know,

0:19:12.640 --> 0:19:15.480
<v Speaker 1>practicing this and getting comfortable with it. In order to

0:19:15.560 --> 0:19:19.080
<v Speaker 1>have an idea meritocracy, you have to do three things. First,

0:19:19.280 --> 0:19:21.600
<v Speaker 1>you have to put your honest thoughts on the table

0:19:22.160 --> 0:19:25.520
<v Speaker 1>for everybody to see, holding back, no holding back everybody

0:19:25.560 --> 0:19:28.440
<v Speaker 1>and everybody puts them on the table. Great, Okay, a

0:19:28.520 --> 0:19:31.000
<v Speaker 1>lot of people won't do that, but when you get practiced,

0:19:31.359 --> 0:19:32.919
<v Speaker 1>you don't want to do it any other way. So

0:19:32.960 --> 0:19:35.600
<v Speaker 1>you put your honest thoughts on the table. Second thing

0:19:36.160 --> 0:19:39.080
<v Speaker 1>is you have to know the art of thoughtful disagreement,

0:19:39.400 --> 0:19:42.960
<v Speaker 1>the art of thoughtful distance and challenge right in other words,

0:19:43.600 --> 0:19:48.200
<v Speaker 1>to view that as a curiosity that you also might

0:19:48.240 --> 0:19:50.960
<v Speaker 1>be wrong if there's disagreement, How do you know the

0:19:50.960 --> 0:19:54.800
<v Speaker 1>wrong party isn't you? So to separate oneself from one's

0:19:54.840 --> 0:19:57.800
<v Speaker 1>opinions and to be able to have a quality back

0:19:57.840 --> 0:20:01.040
<v Speaker 1>and forth motivated by curi city and the fear of

0:20:01.040 --> 0:20:03.119
<v Speaker 1>being wrong, so that you can take in and learn

0:20:03.520 --> 0:20:08.440
<v Speaker 1>that understanding the art of thoughtful disagreement is invaluable. So

0:20:08.520 --> 0:20:11.320
<v Speaker 1>you so that's the second thing, put your honest thoughts

0:20:11.320 --> 0:20:15.000
<v Speaker 1>on the tables. The first, UM have understand the art

0:20:15.000 --> 0:20:18.240
<v Speaker 1>of their thoughtful disagreement. We have protocols about how to

0:20:18.280 --> 0:20:20.679
<v Speaker 1>do that. And then at the end of the day,

0:20:20.760 --> 0:20:23.040
<v Speaker 1>when there's um you have to make a decision and

0:20:23.080 --> 0:20:27.320
<v Speaker 1>you still have disagreements, to have protocols to get around

0:20:27.320 --> 0:20:31.280
<v Speaker 1>those disagreements that you consider to be fair. I'd say

0:20:31.320 --> 0:20:34.960
<v Speaker 1>this is essential for me in all my relationships. So

0:20:35.119 --> 0:20:38.719
<v Speaker 1>it would be relationships with family, with friends, UM, you

0:20:38.720 --> 0:20:42.439
<v Speaker 1>know I need them to be straightforward with me. I

0:20:42.480 --> 0:20:45.920
<v Speaker 1>gotta be straightforward with them. We have to know how

0:20:45.920 --> 0:20:50.000
<v Speaker 1>to have thoughtful disagreement. And then everybody in any relationship

0:20:50.720 --> 0:20:54.400
<v Speaker 1>has to have protocols for getting around their disagreements if

0:20:54.400 --> 0:20:56.520
<v Speaker 1>they still remain. If you and your wife are having

0:20:56.520 --> 0:20:58.919
<v Speaker 1>a disagreement on something, you still have to have a

0:20:58.920 --> 0:21:02.600
<v Speaker 1>protocol for getting around out it. So by organizing that

0:21:02.720 --> 0:21:05.280
<v Speaker 1>and making it clear, we were able to have this

0:21:05.359 --> 0:21:11.000
<v Speaker 1>idea meritocracy, and everybody believes the idea meritocracy is then fair.

0:21:11.200 --> 0:21:14.520
<v Speaker 1>Imagine how it is different at every other place, you know,

0:21:14.600 --> 0:21:17.800
<v Speaker 1>the boss tells you what it is. People bottle people

0:21:17.840 --> 0:21:21.440
<v Speaker 1>bottle it up. Okay, they think, oh, he's making a mistake.

0:21:22.000 --> 0:21:25.080
<v Speaker 1>He would benefit from having that feedback. But they have

0:21:25.200 --> 0:21:28.160
<v Speaker 1>to bottle it up with which frustrates them. Therefore they

0:21:28.200 --> 0:21:31.199
<v Speaker 1>can't have a real ownership mentality and the organization that

0:21:31.280 --> 0:21:35.760
<v Speaker 1>they're with, and it undermines their relationship. That straightforwardness has

0:21:35.800 --> 0:21:39.480
<v Speaker 1>been fantastic in creating better work and better relationship. So

0:21:39.680 --> 0:21:42.000
<v Speaker 1>that's been the secret source. So let me do a

0:21:42.000 --> 0:21:46.840
<v Speaker 1>little radical transparency with you. In the book, you discussed

0:21:46.880 --> 0:21:51.199
<v Speaker 1>two things. We discussed the people problem and the social issues.

0:21:51.280 --> 0:21:54.560
<v Speaker 1>You talk about bipolar running in the family. And as

0:21:54.600 --> 0:21:58.240
<v Speaker 1>I read those two in sequence, I immediately said, Hey,

0:21:58.400 --> 0:22:00.280
<v Speaker 1>I wonder if Ray is a little bit on the

0:22:00.280 --> 0:22:03.440
<v Speaker 1>spectrum himself. So let me ask you. Have you ever

0:22:03.520 --> 0:22:08.200
<v Speaker 1>considered you're an independent thinker. Your perspectives are unique. You're

0:22:08.320 --> 0:22:11.639
<v Speaker 1>very different from the way the average person in finance operates.

0:22:11.640 --> 0:22:13.920
<v Speaker 1>Have you ever thought, hey, maybe I'm a little a

0:22:14.000 --> 0:22:17.440
<v Speaker 1>little different. Well no, but look, I'm sure i'm a

0:22:17.440 --> 0:22:20.000
<v Speaker 1>little different than you know. Who knows, I'm probably crazy

0:22:20.000 --> 0:22:22.679
<v Speaker 1>in a bunch of different ways. I've never been Uh,

0:22:22.840 --> 0:22:25.760
<v Speaker 1>nobody said that, but you know, like who knows. We

0:22:25.800 --> 0:22:28.879
<v Speaker 1>all have different spectrums. The thing I learned about it

0:22:28.920 --> 0:22:31.919
<v Speaker 1>is there's always a range of thinking. So think of

0:22:31.960 --> 0:22:35.480
<v Speaker 1>it as a thinking spectrum. And I don't know where

0:22:35.520 --> 0:22:38.440
<v Speaker 1>I am on that thinking spectrum. But some people, for example,

0:22:38.600 --> 0:22:42.080
<v Speaker 1>we'll see big pictures, some people will see detail. Some

0:22:42.160 --> 0:22:46.159
<v Speaker 1>people are creative, some people are reliable. One of the

0:22:46.160 --> 0:22:49.960
<v Speaker 1>things we've learned here is that everybody sees things differently,

0:22:50.280 --> 0:22:53.480
<v Speaker 1>like seeing on a spectrum of of seeing, and that

0:22:54.320 --> 0:22:58.359
<v Speaker 1>knowing how one thinks. UM, I tend to be more

0:22:58.400 --> 0:23:00.560
<v Speaker 1>of a big picture thinker, to to be more of

0:23:00.640 --> 0:23:03.879
<v Speaker 1>a you know, original thinker, that kind of thing. But

0:23:03.960 --> 0:23:07.640
<v Speaker 1>in terms of my reliability, like I'm have low reliability

0:23:07.720 --> 0:23:10.520
<v Speaker 1>whatever to know those things and then to have the

0:23:10.600 --> 0:23:14.600
<v Speaker 1>individuals um recognize them and then put together your team's

0:23:14.640 --> 0:23:17.439
<v Speaker 1>well because you need to do it all. Is this

0:23:17.480 --> 0:23:20.600
<v Speaker 1>what led you guys to doing the Briggs Myers personality

0:23:21.200 --> 0:23:23.840
<v Speaker 1>uh tests on everybody and making sure the teams all

0:23:23.920 --> 0:23:27.399
<v Speaker 1>had each of those boxes checked off. Yeah, and a

0:23:27.440 --> 0:23:30.879
<v Speaker 1>lot of tests and a lot of collecting data. Like

0:23:30.960 --> 0:23:34.159
<v Speaker 1>people come in there and they really do want to

0:23:34.200 --> 0:23:38.880
<v Speaker 1>know what their strengths and weaknesses are, because like, you know,

0:23:38.880 --> 0:23:40.960
<v Speaker 1>knowing a weakness, do you want to know a weakness?

0:23:41.240 --> 0:23:45.200
<v Speaker 1>You know, that's one of those emotional intellectual questions. Emotionally

0:23:45.440 --> 0:23:49.320
<v Speaker 1>a lot of people don't. Intellectually, if you know your weakness,

0:23:49.359 --> 0:23:51.800
<v Speaker 1>you can either convert it to a strength somehow, or

0:23:51.840 --> 0:23:54.639
<v Speaker 1>you can compensate for it by put working with somebody

0:23:54.680 --> 0:23:57.399
<v Speaker 1>who's got who's strong. We are you're weak. So knowing

0:23:57.440 --> 0:24:00.159
<v Speaker 1>your weakness is the key to success. And also from

0:24:00.200 --> 0:24:02.239
<v Speaker 1>an employer's point of view, what you want to do

0:24:02.280 --> 0:24:04.639
<v Speaker 1>is you want to know what their weaknesses are and

0:24:04.680 --> 0:24:06.840
<v Speaker 1>what their strange sources. You put them in the right role.

0:24:07.200 --> 0:24:10.199
<v Speaker 1>People tippy toe around this stuff and you know, you

0:24:10.200 --> 0:24:12.840
<v Speaker 1>know where we are. People want to get into it

0:24:12.920 --> 0:24:16.639
<v Speaker 1>and work it out, and so yeah, tests personality tests

0:24:16.920 --> 0:24:19.280
<v Speaker 1>give you a real sense of what your preferences are

0:24:19.320 --> 0:24:22.400
<v Speaker 1>and how you approach your thinking. They've been very helpful.

0:24:22.560 --> 0:24:25.320
<v Speaker 1>But all the data we collect, you know, like every

0:24:25.359 --> 0:24:28.480
<v Speaker 1>meeting of every day. We have a tool called the

0:24:28.480 --> 0:24:31.399
<v Speaker 1>dot Collector. If anybody wants to see it. If you

0:24:31.480 --> 0:24:34.399
<v Speaker 1>really don't want to understand all this in sixteen minutes,

0:24:34.440 --> 0:24:36.760
<v Speaker 1>it's on a ted talk go on a TED talk

0:24:36.800 --> 0:24:40.920
<v Speaker 1>I gave it, uh, and and it gives you something.

0:24:40.960 --> 0:24:43.679
<v Speaker 1>You're going to see a device in which people are

0:24:43.680 --> 0:24:47.080
<v Speaker 1>putting in what they think, uh, during a meeting where

0:24:47.119 --> 0:24:49.760
<v Speaker 1>all meetings are like this, and you'll see how they

0:24:49.840 --> 0:24:53.240
<v Speaker 1>think differently. It lights up in different colors and then

0:24:53.280 --> 0:24:57.439
<v Speaker 1>it explores why is that thinking different? Which creates a

0:24:57.480 --> 0:25:01.880
<v Speaker 1>self discovery and creates idea Merita Crown decision making. So

0:25:02.040 --> 0:25:04.080
<v Speaker 1>it's been evolved to that and it's you know, it's

0:25:04.080 --> 0:25:07.040
<v Speaker 1>been invaluable. Let's talk a little bit about the idea

0:25:07.560 --> 0:25:13.479
<v Speaker 1>of being a hyper realist. You wrote, understand how reality works,

0:25:14.080 --> 0:25:16.760
<v Speaker 1>then learn how to deal with it. Isn't that what

0:25:16.840 --> 0:25:20.600
<v Speaker 1>everybody's supposed to do? Most people? I don't think, do

0:25:20.880 --> 0:25:24.840
<v Speaker 1>I think people? A lot of people, UM feel bad

0:25:24.960 --> 0:25:30.360
<v Speaker 1>about reality, feel sorry that, uh, some realities are happening

0:25:30.359 --> 0:25:35.560
<v Speaker 1>to them, feel things are unfair. Um, they don't react

0:25:35.600 --> 0:25:40.120
<v Speaker 1>to harsh realities. Well they don't. Instead, you can instead

0:25:40.400 --> 0:25:45.600
<v Speaker 1>say reality is the thing I have to deal with

0:25:45.800 --> 0:25:49.440
<v Speaker 1>and I have to be clever and understand how does

0:25:49.560 --> 0:25:52.880
<v Speaker 1>reality work and how do I deal with it effectively?

0:25:53.280 --> 0:25:58.399
<v Speaker 1>And those two different mindsets are UM are enormous because

0:25:58.440 --> 0:26:02.600
<v Speaker 1>if you own that reality is reality. You know that's

0:26:02.640 --> 0:26:04.320
<v Speaker 1>what you have to deal with, and that you have

0:26:04.400 --> 0:26:07.240
<v Speaker 1>to find the way of dealing with it successfully. Then

0:26:07.280 --> 0:26:10.520
<v Speaker 1>it changes your whole attitude and your whole path really

0:26:11.040 --> 0:26:13.640
<v Speaker 1>to being successful. So let's talk a little bit about

0:26:13.640 --> 0:26:18.240
<v Speaker 1>a change in path that reality seems to have le

0:26:18.600 --> 0:26:23.520
<v Speaker 1>led you towards. You transitioned at work from I'm right

0:26:23.760 --> 0:26:26.800
<v Speaker 1>to to what I would describe as next level thinking.

0:26:27.280 --> 0:26:32.080
<v Speaker 1>How can I know if I'm right? Explain that transition. Oh, yeah,

0:26:32.119 --> 0:26:38.479
<v Speaker 1>it was in one UM I had calculated that foreign

0:26:38.480 --> 0:26:43.159
<v Speaker 1>countries borrowed enough money that they couldn't pay back American banks,

0:26:43.160 --> 0:26:45.400
<v Speaker 1>and that there was going to be a big banking crisis.

0:26:45.840 --> 0:26:48.640
<v Speaker 1>I did the numbers and um that at that time

0:26:48.680 --> 0:26:51.560
<v Speaker 1>that was extremely controversial view. I said, We're gonna have

0:26:51.600 --> 0:26:56.640
<v Speaker 1>a big debt crisis and h Then in August Mexico

0:26:56.720 --> 0:27:00.560
<v Speaker 1>defaulted on its debt and and so I, We're gonna

0:27:00.560 --> 0:27:03.800
<v Speaker 1>have a big economic crisis, and so I was asked

0:27:03.840 --> 0:27:06.639
<v Speaker 1>to appear on Wall Street Week and explain it. I

0:27:06.680 --> 0:27:09.879
<v Speaker 1>was asked to testify to Congress and so on. Uh,

0:27:09.920 --> 0:27:13.200
<v Speaker 1>this big economic crisis, bear market in stocks and everything.

0:27:13.960 --> 0:27:18.600
<v Speaker 1>August two, Mexico devaults and here I am, and I'm

0:27:18.640 --> 0:27:22.719
<v Speaker 1>getting all that attention. I was so wrong. That was

0:27:23.240 --> 0:27:27.920
<v Speaker 1>that was the exact bottom in the stock market August,

0:27:28.520 --> 0:27:31.600
<v Speaker 1>and you were on ru Kaiser basically forecasting a depression.

0:27:32.640 --> 0:27:35.639
<v Speaker 1>I couldn't have been more wrong right, and I lost

0:27:35.640 --> 0:27:40.280
<v Speaker 1>money in the markets. I uh, I was. I had

0:27:40.320 --> 0:27:42.680
<v Speaker 1>to let everybody in my company go. It was down

0:27:42.720 --> 0:27:45.119
<v Speaker 1>to me. I was so broke. I had to borrow

0:27:45.160 --> 0:27:47.920
<v Speaker 1>four thousand dollars to my dad to help take care

0:27:47.920 --> 0:27:51.200
<v Speaker 1>of my family. Okay, that was one of the most

0:27:51.200 --> 0:27:54.919
<v Speaker 1>painful experiences of my life, but it was one of

0:27:54.960 --> 0:27:58.240
<v Speaker 1>the most valuable experiences of my life because it changed

0:27:58.280 --> 0:28:02.000
<v Speaker 1>my approach to decision making. In other words, like you say,

0:28:02.040 --> 0:28:06.440
<v Speaker 1>it shifted my perspective from thinking I'm right to asking myself,

0:28:06.760 --> 0:28:10.480
<v Speaker 1>how do I know I'm right? And it gave me

0:28:10.600 --> 0:28:14.800
<v Speaker 1>the humility that I needed to balance with my audacity.

0:28:15.200 --> 0:28:18.760
<v Speaker 1>And that change in approach resulted in, you know, some

0:28:18.840 --> 0:28:21.880
<v Speaker 1>big decision making where did I go back to another job,

0:28:21.920 --> 0:28:24.000
<v Speaker 1>would I stay out there? And and how would I

0:28:24.040 --> 0:28:27.120
<v Speaker 1>do things differently in the future. And the first thing,

0:28:27.160 --> 0:28:30.280
<v Speaker 1>most important thing was to find the smartest people I

0:28:30.320 --> 0:28:33.480
<v Speaker 1>know who would disagree with me to understand their thinking,

0:28:33.520 --> 0:28:36.400
<v Speaker 1>to have that thoughtful disagreement. That's part of your fourth

0:28:36.440 --> 0:28:40.080
<v Speaker 1>step process. Right, Yeah, find smart people know when not

0:28:40.160 --> 0:28:43.760
<v Speaker 1>to have an opinion. That's a fascinating statement. When should

0:28:43.840 --> 0:28:47.720
<v Speaker 1>you not have an opinion? Well? A lot of times? Right, Well,

0:28:47.840 --> 0:28:51.360
<v Speaker 1>I mean opinions, particularly in in any is a zero

0:28:51.400 --> 0:28:54.520
<v Speaker 1>sum game. But so many people have opinions that they're

0:28:54.520 --> 0:28:58.440
<v Speaker 1>attached to and and they don't know whether they're they're right,

0:28:58.560 --> 0:29:02.000
<v Speaker 1>and and that bias is killing them. I think one

0:29:02.000 --> 0:29:07.400
<v Speaker 1>of the greatest tragedies of mankind is people stupidly holding

0:29:07.440 --> 0:29:11.360
<v Speaker 1>onto opinions that could be wrong, that they could so

0:29:11.480 --> 0:29:15.320
<v Speaker 1>easily put out there and stress test. And that emotional

0:29:15.360 --> 0:29:18.880
<v Speaker 1>attachment to these opinions is one of those things where

0:29:18.920 --> 0:29:21.560
<v Speaker 1>instead you could just say, let me get the best

0:29:22.400 --> 0:29:24.840
<v Speaker 1>thinking I can have. It doesn't even have to come

0:29:24.880 --> 0:29:26.600
<v Speaker 1>from me. Why does it have to come from you?

0:29:26.680 --> 0:29:29.560
<v Speaker 1>But that's a huge ego fail. If oh my god,

0:29:29.600 --> 0:29:31.560
<v Speaker 1>I'm wrong, I have to go to someone else. Isn't

0:29:31.560 --> 0:29:35.240
<v Speaker 1>that how people often operate? Right? And that's screwed up? Right,

0:29:35.280 --> 0:29:38.480
<v Speaker 1>you have two basic barriers. You have your ego barrier

0:29:38.720 --> 0:29:41.000
<v Speaker 1>and your blind spot barrier. Like do you want to

0:29:41.040 --> 0:29:43.160
<v Speaker 1>be right or do you want to be you want

0:29:43.160 --> 0:29:46.440
<v Speaker 1>to take your lousy opinion and and be attached to

0:29:46.520 --> 0:29:48.720
<v Speaker 1>it being right, Like I want to be right. I

0:29:48.720 --> 0:29:50.360
<v Speaker 1>don't care where it comes from. Just as long as

0:29:50.360 --> 0:29:53.160
<v Speaker 1>I'm right. That works better. And then and so that

0:29:53.280 --> 0:29:57.240
<v Speaker 1>ego barrier is terrible. And then there's the blind spot barrier.

0:29:57.320 --> 0:30:00.560
<v Speaker 1>Even people who don't um have you know, uh, the

0:30:00.600 --> 0:30:04.800
<v Speaker 1>ego of being attachment to be right see things differently,

0:30:05.040 --> 0:30:08.320
<v Speaker 1>the unknown unknowns so to speak. Yeah, well, right, um,

0:30:08.360 --> 0:30:11.320
<v Speaker 1>this range the spectrum that you're talking about. Somebody sees

0:30:11.360 --> 0:30:15.320
<v Speaker 1>something creatively, somebody sees detail, somebody We all see things

0:30:15.440 --> 0:30:18.840
<v Speaker 1>differently and to be and so you can't see at

0:30:18.880 --> 0:30:20.920
<v Speaker 1>all the big picture person may not be able to

0:30:20.960 --> 0:30:23.360
<v Speaker 1>see the details, or the detailed person can't see the

0:30:23.400 --> 0:30:26.640
<v Speaker 1>big picture. If you can light up all those different

0:30:26.640 --> 0:30:30.360
<v Speaker 1>ways of thinking and and you can bring that to bear,

0:30:30.520 --> 0:30:33.400
<v Speaker 1>you're going to make much better decisions. So that's one

0:30:33.400 --> 0:30:37.040
<v Speaker 1>of the reasons that great collective decision making is much

0:30:37.080 --> 0:30:42.360
<v Speaker 1>more powerful than just individual opinionated thinking. Sure, of course,

0:30:42.400 --> 0:30:46.479
<v Speaker 1>you're you're you're bringing in all the advantages of the

0:30:46.480 --> 0:30:50.320
<v Speaker 1>group and you're limiting the problems of the individual, and

0:30:50.440 --> 0:30:54.120
<v Speaker 1>that raises your probabilities of being right. So now you

0:30:54.200 --> 0:30:55.880
<v Speaker 1>mentioned four steps, so I want to get to the

0:30:56.120 --> 0:30:59.719
<v Speaker 1>step three and four, which are the principles and up

0:30:59.760 --> 0:31:03.400
<v Speaker 1>so I risk versus downside risk, right, So okay, So

0:31:03.680 --> 0:31:05.680
<v Speaker 1>some of the other things that I learned about is

0:31:06.000 --> 0:31:10.200
<v Speaker 1>how you know, risk goes with rewards, but how am

0:31:10.240 --> 0:31:13.760
<v Speaker 1>I going to change the ratio of risk to rewards? Right?

0:31:14.280 --> 0:31:17.080
<v Speaker 1>And I spent a lot more time with financial engineering

0:31:17.160 --> 0:31:21.080
<v Speaker 1>of understanding how to use correlations and certain ways of

0:31:21.200 --> 0:31:25.200
<v Speaker 1>really radically improving the ratio of returned to risk. So

0:31:25.240 --> 0:31:27.640
<v Speaker 1>it's explained in there. And what I called the holy

0:31:27.680 --> 0:31:31.080
<v Speaker 1>Grail of investing, it's um, you know, that was there.

0:31:31.480 --> 0:31:35.800
<v Speaker 1>And then I also learned, um that everything that happened

0:31:37.160 --> 0:31:40.800
<v Speaker 1>that happens practically has happened before for the most part,

0:31:41.360 --> 0:31:44.320
<v Speaker 1>and that the things that surprised me were the things

0:31:44.360 --> 0:31:47.720
<v Speaker 1>that just happened happened in my lifetime before, but they

0:31:47.840 --> 0:31:50.840
<v Speaker 1>but they happened before. Like one first time I had

0:31:50.880 --> 0:31:55.200
<v Speaker 1>a breakdown of the currency system, okay, and it was

0:31:55.280 --> 0:31:57.560
<v Speaker 1>first time in my lifetime then had happened. But I

0:31:57.600 --> 0:32:00.840
<v Speaker 1>looked in history, happened many times before. So so I

0:32:00.920 --> 0:32:05.000
<v Speaker 1>learned that I needed to make my rules timeless and universal,

0:32:05.120 --> 0:32:07.680
<v Speaker 1>in other words, that I would run them back through

0:32:07.680 --> 0:32:10.760
<v Speaker 1>the Great Depression, through the Weimar Republic see how those

0:32:11.120 --> 0:32:13.800
<v Speaker 1>rules would work, and if they wouldn't have worked well

0:32:13.800 --> 0:32:16.600
<v Speaker 1>in certain periods, then I had to explain why they

0:32:16.640 --> 0:32:19.240
<v Speaker 1>would work in those periods, because there were reasons for that.

0:32:19.680 --> 0:32:21.760
<v Speaker 1>So these are the things that came out of my

0:32:21.920 --> 0:32:28.080
<v Speaker 1>reflections as a result of you know, that two painful experience.

0:32:28.560 --> 0:32:32.200
<v Speaker 1>It's such a great example that if you pain plus

0:32:32.280 --> 0:32:36.360
<v Speaker 1>reflection equals progress. If you really reflect the most and

0:32:36.400 --> 0:32:38.960
<v Speaker 1>you look at how reality works and you think what

0:32:39.000 --> 0:32:42.120
<v Speaker 1>should you do differently, that's where the power of growth

0:32:42.440 --> 0:32:45.760
<v Speaker 1>comes from. So there's one other thing in the Principles

0:32:45.840 --> 0:32:48.720
<v Speaker 1>at Work section I have to talk to you about

0:32:48.800 --> 0:32:51.800
<v Speaker 1>because I just was so tickled by it. You spend

0:32:51.880 --> 0:32:56.320
<v Speaker 1>almost five pages on how to run a meeting effectively?

0:32:56.800 --> 0:33:00.120
<v Speaker 1>So what if that raises two issues you Obviously we

0:33:00.200 --> 0:33:03.719
<v Speaker 1>think meetings are important and a significant part of getting

0:33:04.160 --> 0:33:06.680
<v Speaker 1>work done as a group. But it made me wonder

0:33:06.920 --> 0:33:09.840
<v Speaker 1>what were the meanings like in the early days of Bridgewater.

0:33:10.080 --> 0:33:12.640
<v Speaker 1>Was it was it anarchy that led you to this

0:33:12.720 --> 0:33:16.760
<v Speaker 1>sort of insight or or what motivated a lot of

0:33:16.840 --> 0:33:23.320
<v Speaker 1>thought about making meetings more productive? Well, um, the meetings

0:33:23.360 --> 0:33:26.160
<v Speaker 1>are an important thing. And meetings means that there's a

0:33:26.160 --> 0:33:28.760
<v Speaker 1>collection of people who are in the room and they're

0:33:28.800 --> 0:33:32.440
<v Speaker 1>ideally leading to some sort of decision. Okay, you have

0:33:32.600 --> 0:33:34.800
<v Speaker 1>to say, how are you going to be with each

0:33:34.800 --> 0:33:38.640
<v Speaker 1>other in order to make decisions? Right? In other words,

0:33:38.720 --> 0:33:41.280
<v Speaker 1>you can go around the table. I was I'd go

0:33:41.320 --> 0:33:43.520
<v Speaker 1>around the table and then there was not much attention

0:33:43.760 --> 0:33:48.000
<v Speaker 1>paid to you know, who knows exactly what? Right? You know?

0:33:48.320 --> 0:33:51.320
<v Speaker 1>What do you think, Harry? What do you think, Sally?

0:33:51.800 --> 0:33:54.640
<v Speaker 1>And maybe they're not good at it and maybe they're

0:33:54.720 --> 0:33:58.560
<v Speaker 1>good at it at so um that's a problem. Or

0:33:58.720 --> 0:34:02.120
<v Speaker 1>you can have autocratic tocision making. You know, the autocratic

0:34:02.120 --> 0:34:05.400
<v Speaker 1>decision making means the boss kind of makes the decision

0:34:05.640 --> 0:34:10.080
<v Speaker 1>and then then you sort of decide and everybody walks out.

0:34:10.719 --> 0:34:15.160
<v Speaker 1>I wanted to have believability weighted decision making. Okay, believability

0:34:15.160 --> 0:34:18.480
<v Speaker 1>weighted decision making is, um, let's see you trying to

0:34:18.600 --> 0:34:22.360
<v Speaker 1>explain it quickly or not? Um, believability weighted decision making.

0:34:22.360 --> 0:34:26.560
<v Speaker 1>Imagine if you knew, um, the probability of each person

0:34:26.640 --> 0:34:30.480
<v Speaker 1>making a high quality decision and then you decided, UM,

0:34:30.560 --> 0:34:33.600
<v Speaker 1>that would be taken into consideration, and when you're making

0:34:33.640 --> 0:34:37.719
<v Speaker 1>the decision, you can actually have believability weighted voting to

0:34:37.840 --> 0:34:41.160
<v Speaker 1>make a decision, so that you put the weight more

0:34:41.160 --> 0:34:45.839
<v Speaker 1>heavily on those who have greater abilities to make those

0:34:45.880 --> 0:34:48.560
<v Speaker 1>types of decisions and at the same time, while you're

0:34:48.560 --> 0:34:51.680
<v Speaker 1>having this open minded discussion and at the same time

0:34:51.719 --> 0:34:54.439
<v Speaker 1>knowing what people know and knowing what they don't know

0:34:54.800 --> 0:34:57.880
<v Speaker 1>and being clear about that in terms of that decision making.

0:34:58.160 --> 0:35:00.799
<v Speaker 1>So that was a very very important concept for me,

0:35:01.320 --> 0:35:04.319
<v Speaker 1>and then we wanted to build that out, you know, like,

0:35:04.360 --> 0:35:07.120
<v Speaker 1>how do we have believability weighted decision You use that

0:35:07.160 --> 0:35:10.319
<v Speaker 1>currently approach every every every meeting, ten people are sitting

0:35:10.320 --> 0:35:14.320
<v Speaker 1>around a conference table and their expertise and I'm assuming

0:35:14.360 --> 0:35:20.000
<v Speaker 1>credibility weighted believability rated is a function of their skill set, expertise, etcetera.

0:35:20.480 --> 0:35:23.360
<v Speaker 1>Everybody has a different right and they all have different waitings.

0:35:23.360 --> 0:35:25.440
<v Speaker 1>So at the end of the day, you say, I'm

0:35:25.440 --> 0:35:27.839
<v Speaker 1>going to make a decision, Okay, would you do this

0:35:28.080 --> 0:35:30.880
<v Speaker 1>after the thoughtful disagreement? Would you do this? And you

0:35:30.960 --> 0:35:34.160
<v Speaker 1>push a button on this iPad app that we developed

0:35:34.520 --> 0:35:37.000
<v Speaker 1>and UM and it will show not only what the

0:35:37.080 --> 0:35:40.040
<v Speaker 1>different people's votes were and how that vote tallied up,

0:35:40.239 --> 0:35:43.000
<v Speaker 1>but it will show a believability weighted vote. So I'm

0:35:43.000 --> 0:35:47.280
<v Speaker 1>gonna assume that that a straight yes no vote often

0:35:47.360 --> 0:35:50.920
<v Speaker 1>leads to a different result than the believability weight to vote. Well,

0:35:50.920 --> 0:35:53.720
<v Speaker 1>the yes no will get tallied up with the weight

0:35:53.960 --> 0:35:57.360
<v Speaker 1>of yes is and those and that that and so.

0:35:57.360 --> 0:36:00.399
<v Speaker 1>So for me, like I'm running a meeting, this really

0:36:00.400 --> 0:36:03.040
<v Speaker 1>what I wanted to have. I run the company. I

0:36:03.040 --> 0:36:05.600
<v Speaker 1>could do any kind of decision making I want, And

0:36:05.680 --> 0:36:08.799
<v Speaker 1>but the reason I want the believability decision is if

0:36:08.840 --> 0:36:11.520
<v Speaker 1>somebody knows more about a subject than I do, or

0:36:11.560 --> 0:36:15.920
<v Speaker 1>if I have three believable people disagreeing with me, um

0:36:16.080 --> 0:36:20.879
<v Speaker 1>and and about something, I don't want to just walk

0:36:20.960 --> 0:36:23.240
<v Speaker 1>off and do that thing because that would be pretty stupid.

0:36:23.600 --> 0:36:26.279
<v Speaker 1>So what I think to myself is, Okay, the right

0:36:26.320 --> 0:36:29.560
<v Speaker 1>way to make that decision is believability weighted. And then

0:36:29.560 --> 0:36:32.640
<v Speaker 1>when we come down to that, like if I'm thinking, um,

0:36:32.840 --> 0:36:36.719
<v Speaker 1>these people have that that view and I have another view, Uh,

0:36:36.760 --> 0:36:39.440
<v Speaker 1>there's a high probability I'm wrong. I need to even

0:36:39.520 --> 0:36:42.560
<v Speaker 1>delve into it. Why is it that? And so, by

0:36:42.600 --> 0:36:47.560
<v Speaker 1>operating by this believability weighted decision making. Um, it's fantastic.

0:36:47.880 --> 0:36:50.680
<v Speaker 1>I will make better decisions. We make better decisions as

0:36:50.719 --> 0:36:54.560
<v Speaker 1>a result of that. And also people feel empowered in

0:36:54.600 --> 0:36:57.839
<v Speaker 1>the rules. Rules are fair in other words, Okay, at

0:36:57.840 --> 0:37:00.600
<v Speaker 1>the end of the day, you know, just in the

0:37:00.680 --> 0:37:03.960
<v Speaker 1>United States, we might believe that democracy is fair. In

0:37:03.960 --> 0:37:08.320
<v Speaker 1>other words, that they might believe that, Um, I would

0:37:08.320 --> 0:37:11.200
<v Speaker 1>believe in a company, everybody doesn't. It doesn't make sense

0:37:11.200 --> 0:37:13.280
<v Speaker 1>to have one person on vote because it doesn't because

0:37:13.480 --> 0:37:16.160
<v Speaker 1>there's a difference. But to know that in a sense

0:37:16.200 --> 0:37:19.520
<v Speaker 1>that you earn believability points in a variety of fair ways,

0:37:19.880 --> 0:37:22.600
<v Speaker 1>and that it gets carried through so that you're making

0:37:22.600 --> 0:37:26.320
<v Speaker 1>your decision making is a decision making process that people

0:37:26.360 --> 0:37:28.720
<v Speaker 1>can believe in. It means they don't have to bottle

0:37:28.800 --> 0:37:31.719
<v Speaker 1>these things up and it makes for better decisions. That's

0:37:31.760 --> 0:37:35.719
<v Speaker 1>a pretty ego free approach to managing a company. Well,

0:37:35.840 --> 0:37:39.040
<v Speaker 1>this ego is a problem, right, I mean you basically,

0:37:39.200 --> 0:37:41.920
<v Speaker 1>I mean maybe the ego of you know, being excited

0:37:41.960 --> 0:37:44.160
<v Speaker 1>and doing great things and all of those types of things.

0:37:44.200 --> 0:37:46.640
<v Speaker 1>So maybe it's not totally bad, but I mean any

0:37:46.719 --> 0:37:49.319
<v Speaker 1>time that that ego is standing in the way if

0:37:49.320 --> 0:37:52.640
<v Speaker 1>you're making a good decision. It's it's terrible. It's it's

0:37:52.640 --> 0:37:54.640
<v Speaker 1>got to be controlled. You've got to do something different,

0:37:54.680 --> 0:37:56.720
<v Speaker 1>otherwise you're stand in the way of making a good decision.

0:37:57.160 --> 0:38:00.359
<v Speaker 1>Life is a matter you know of bets. Every you're

0:38:00.360 --> 0:38:02.880
<v Speaker 1>making a bunch of different bets, and think about it.

0:38:02.880 --> 0:38:07.359
<v Speaker 1>It's the accumulated stack of chips that you accumulate from

0:38:07.400 --> 0:38:09.960
<v Speaker 1>making all those life bets. So you don't want to

0:38:10.000 --> 0:38:12.920
<v Speaker 1>have something that's going to stand anyway. If you're playing poker,

0:38:12.960 --> 0:38:15.440
<v Speaker 1>if you were playing any game, you don't want to

0:38:15.480 --> 0:38:18.520
<v Speaker 1>have the ego stand in the way of making smart decisions. Right,

0:38:18.800 --> 0:38:21.799
<v Speaker 1>makes makes perfect sense to me. Let's talk a little

0:38:21.800 --> 0:38:25.799
<v Speaker 1>bit about markets and the economy. In the book Principles,

0:38:26.040 --> 0:38:31.279
<v Speaker 1>you describe back testing your trading intuition in order to

0:38:31.320 --> 0:38:35.760
<v Speaker 1>develop a system for interest rate, stock, currency, and precious metals.

0:38:36.239 --> 0:38:40.160
<v Speaker 1>Tell us how the idea of back testing intuition developed

0:38:40.320 --> 0:38:44.839
<v Speaker 1>and how you implemented that over the early history of Bridgewater. Well,

0:38:44.920 --> 0:38:48.040
<v Speaker 1>I've every I got in a habit of every time

0:38:48.040 --> 0:38:50.719
<v Speaker 1>I would put on a trade, I would write down

0:38:50.719 --> 0:38:54.719
<v Speaker 1>the criteria for putting on that trade, and I when

0:38:54.760 --> 0:38:56.839
<v Speaker 1>I would close out the trade and I'd read why

0:38:56.840 --> 0:38:58.600
<v Speaker 1>did I do it? And you know, how did that go?

0:38:59.080 --> 0:39:01.839
<v Speaker 1>Just as a learning as apparence, and I found that

0:39:01.920 --> 0:39:06.359
<v Speaker 1>if I wrote those criteria really clearly and I put

0:39:06.400 --> 0:39:10.719
<v Speaker 1>them into equations or algorithms, I could then see how

0:39:10.800 --> 0:39:12.839
<v Speaker 1>they would have performed in the past. Let me let

0:39:12.840 --> 0:39:15.760
<v Speaker 1>me interrupt you a brief second, from the beginning days

0:39:15.800 --> 0:39:19.040
<v Speaker 1>of Bridgewater, from your earliest days as a trader, you

0:39:19.080 --> 0:39:22.439
<v Speaker 1>were writing down here in my trade criteria, here's why

0:39:22.480 --> 0:39:24.880
<v Speaker 1>I expect this to work, and then you would do

0:39:24.920 --> 0:39:28.120
<v Speaker 1>a postmortem saying here's why this worked or here's why

0:39:28.160 --> 0:39:31.360
<v Speaker 1>this didn't. Yeah, very very early as long as I

0:39:31.360 --> 0:39:33.920
<v Speaker 1>can remember, and then that would be eventually reduced to

0:39:33.920 --> 0:39:37.719
<v Speaker 1>an algorithm. Well, what I discovered. I just did it

0:39:37.760 --> 0:39:40.040
<v Speaker 1>to reflect on the trade. But I discovered that if

0:39:40.080 --> 0:39:43.360
<v Speaker 1>I was clear enough, I could see how that decision

0:39:43.440 --> 0:39:47.120
<v Speaker 1>rule would have worked in the past, throughout history. And

0:39:47.280 --> 0:39:51.360
<v Speaker 1>that was enlightening, right, because then I could see I

0:39:51.400 --> 0:39:53.719
<v Speaker 1>could test it in all different countries I contested in

0:39:53.760 --> 0:39:57.200
<v Speaker 1>all different markets. Wow, that was enlightening. And then I

0:39:57.239 --> 0:40:00.360
<v Speaker 1>realized that if I could take that rule, that this

0:40:00.520 --> 0:40:04.360
<v Speaker 1>algorithm um, I could also have a process information on

0:40:04.400 --> 0:40:08.000
<v Speaker 1>a real time basis, so as information was coming in,

0:40:08.120 --> 0:40:11.160
<v Speaker 1>it could go through the rule and then tell me

0:40:11.680 --> 0:40:14.480
<v Speaker 1>essentially buy sell and do that. So I gained a

0:40:14.600 --> 0:40:18.320
<v Speaker 1>perspective and I gained a tool that was fantastic for

0:40:18.400 --> 0:40:21.600
<v Speaker 1>my decision making. And it was it was so invaluable

0:40:21.960 --> 0:40:24.600
<v Speaker 1>because the computer can do things that the mind can.

0:40:24.680 --> 0:40:27.800
<v Speaker 1>It can process a lot more information, a lot faster,

0:40:28.000 --> 0:40:31.239
<v Speaker 1>a lot more precisely, and a lot less emotionally. And

0:40:31.320 --> 0:40:34.200
<v Speaker 1>I so I could build those strategies. So that's how

0:40:34.239 --> 0:40:37.680
<v Speaker 1>I started to think about those decision rules and then

0:40:37.920 --> 0:40:42.120
<v Speaker 1>I found um, and that was great. So I built

0:40:42.160 --> 0:40:46.120
<v Speaker 1>these systems, these decision making systems that would work like

0:40:46.160 --> 0:40:48.360
<v Speaker 1>a GPS. Like if I'm driving in the car and

0:40:48.400 --> 0:40:52.000
<v Speaker 1>the GPSS turn right, turn left using those my criteria,

0:40:52.480 --> 0:40:54.719
<v Speaker 1>UM yeah, I could do that, or I could say no,

0:40:54.880 --> 0:40:57.040
<v Speaker 1>I think I should turn right. It's like having a

0:40:57.040 --> 0:41:00.000
<v Speaker 1>computer chess system next to you while you're playing chess

0:41:00.080 --> 0:41:03.920
<v Speaker 1>us but with your criteria. And then the reconciliation of

0:41:03.960 --> 0:41:07.359
<v Speaker 1>what the computer saying with what I'm saying, uh than

0:41:07.680 --> 0:41:10.799
<v Speaker 1>helped because sometimes if I would see it differently from

0:41:10.800 --> 0:41:13.719
<v Speaker 1>the computer, then I would say, well why would that be?

0:41:13.719 --> 0:41:16.880
<v Speaker 1>Because those were my rules, so how do what's going on?

0:41:17.440 --> 0:41:20.000
<v Speaker 1>And it could either be two thirds of the time

0:41:20.280 --> 0:41:23.200
<v Speaker 1>it was that the computer was seeing things that I

0:41:23.239 --> 0:41:26.719
<v Speaker 1>just wasn't because my mind is limited in capacity to

0:41:26.760 --> 0:41:28.319
<v Speaker 1>do it. But it would make sense when I would

0:41:28.360 --> 0:41:30.759
<v Speaker 1>dig in and then let's say one third of the

0:41:30.840 --> 0:41:33.719
<v Speaker 1>time I was seeing something that I hadn't properly put

0:41:33.760 --> 0:41:36.440
<v Speaker 1>into the system. And so by putting it into the

0:41:36.480 --> 0:41:40.160
<v Speaker 1>system and evolving in that way. Again, I'll emphasize that

0:41:40.480 --> 0:41:44.760
<v Speaker 1>writing down of principles, putting them in there and then

0:41:45.520 --> 0:41:50.400
<v Speaker 1>ideally encoding those principles into UH computer to make that

0:41:50.440 --> 0:41:54.200
<v Speaker 1>decision making UM. You know, has been invaluable. And that's

0:41:54.239 --> 0:41:58.920
<v Speaker 1>why that works so great with our investment decision making,

0:41:59.400 --> 0:42:03.920
<v Speaker 1>UM that it became really important for our people decision making,

0:42:03.920 --> 0:42:07.680
<v Speaker 1>our management decision making, in other words, for all decision making.

0:42:07.960 --> 0:42:09.839
<v Speaker 1>You can do this. It doesn't have to be just

0:42:09.920 --> 0:42:12.920
<v Speaker 1>investment decision making. And this is the thing I really

0:42:12.960 --> 0:42:16.279
<v Speaker 1>really want to pass along. UM. If you think that

0:42:16.360 --> 0:42:20.200
<v Speaker 1>you're making decisions, UM, and you just sort of slow

0:42:20.280 --> 0:42:23.520
<v Speaker 1>yourself down and you write those things down, it'll help

0:42:23.560 --> 0:42:26.600
<v Speaker 1>you clarify them and when the next time one of

0:42:26.640 --> 0:42:29.080
<v Speaker 1>those comes along, you can refer to it, and you

0:42:29.080 --> 0:42:32.600
<v Speaker 1>could also share it with other people so that you say, ah, God,

0:42:32.680 --> 0:42:35.400
<v Speaker 1>we understand each other why we're doing that, and you

0:42:35.400 --> 0:42:38.120
<v Speaker 1>can refine it, and then you can build on that

0:42:38.200 --> 0:42:41.839
<v Speaker 1>nowadays with and not just nowadays, we've been doing this

0:42:41.880 --> 0:42:44.360
<v Speaker 1>for twenty five years. You can build that in terms

0:42:44.400 --> 0:42:48.279
<v Speaker 1>of that uh, that systemized type of approach, and that's invaluable.

0:42:48.360 --> 0:42:50.680
<v Speaker 1>Let's stay with the investment thesis for a second, because

0:42:50.680 --> 0:42:53.800
<v Speaker 1>there's a quote from the book I have to share.

0:42:54.400 --> 0:42:57.399
<v Speaker 1>There are anxious times in every investor's career when your

0:42:57.480 --> 0:43:01.600
<v Speaker 1>expectations of what should be happening are in align with

0:43:01.640 --> 0:43:04.399
<v Speaker 1>what is happening, and you don't know if what you're

0:43:04.400 --> 0:43:09.759
<v Speaker 1>looking at our great opportunities or catastrophic mistakes. Is this

0:43:09.920 --> 0:43:12.759
<v Speaker 1>the sort of thing that the system helps you work

0:43:12.800 --> 0:43:15.760
<v Speaker 1>your way through. Yes, I mean I think you must

0:43:15.760 --> 0:43:20.520
<v Speaker 1>know the feeling, like every investor right, everybody else's wrong. Well,

0:43:20.560 --> 0:43:23.840
<v Speaker 1>but you don't know, you say, or am I missing something?

0:43:24.680 --> 0:43:26.640
<v Speaker 1>You know? Because every day it ticks. You know, It's

0:43:26.640 --> 0:43:29.360
<v Speaker 1>not like you buy and then you sell. It's that

0:43:29.440 --> 0:43:32.960
<v Speaker 1>you're sitting with that position and every day it's doing

0:43:33.000 --> 0:43:36.000
<v Speaker 1>this and somehow it's going the wrong way, and you

0:43:36.080 --> 0:43:39.960
<v Speaker 1>really don't know am I missing something or is the

0:43:40.000 --> 0:43:43.960
<v Speaker 1>market just about to catch up? The system helps you, right,

0:43:44.200 --> 0:43:48.839
<v Speaker 1>because the system consists of that computer betting machine. Right,

0:43:48.960 --> 0:43:51.920
<v Speaker 1>it's like that that that chess machine and so on,

0:43:52.480 --> 0:43:55.799
<v Speaker 1>and you also have it down that you know, I

0:43:55.960 --> 0:43:59.440
<v Speaker 1>structure it so that no one bet is such a

0:43:59.480 --> 0:44:03.040
<v Speaker 1>big thing, so you're played in large numbers, and so

0:44:03.160 --> 0:44:06.440
<v Speaker 1>you're executing it and you're looking at the reasons. So

0:44:06.600 --> 0:44:10.680
<v Speaker 1>it helps you through, helps me through those emotionally challenging

0:44:10.760 --> 0:44:13.480
<v Speaker 1>periods because you learned to gain perspective. You know how

0:44:13.520 --> 0:44:16.839
<v Speaker 1>bad it can go. That perspective is invaluable. So let's

0:44:16.880 --> 0:44:20.319
<v Speaker 1>give a specific example of that fork in the road

0:44:20.360 --> 0:44:23.560
<v Speaker 1>where it either could have been a catastrophe or an opportunity.

0:44:23.920 --> 0:44:26.680
<v Speaker 1>I have to bring up in two thousand and eight,

0:44:26.880 --> 0:44:32.319
<v Speaker 1>when most funds were down thirty, your flagship fund was

0:44:32.440 --> 0:44:37.759
<v Speaker 1>up four and then fast forward to your returns for

0:44:37.880 --> 0:44:42.439
<v Speaker 1>pure Alpha one where plus fort pure OFFA two, which

0:44:42.520 --> 0:44:47.080
<v Speaker 1>is a more modest portfolio, is plus twenty eight, and

0:44:47.120 --> 0:44:51.720
<v Speaker 1>then the fairly conservative Old Weather portfolio was up eighteen percent.

0:44:52.360 --> 0:44:56.439
<v Speaker 1>I'm looking at these as an example of that great

0:44:56.480 --> 0:45:01.520
<v Speaker 1>opportunity versus great catastrophe. Would these returns been possible without

0:45:01.560 --> 0:45:06.359
<v Speaker 1>that process? No, Again, where they come from. You have

0:45:06.480 --> 0:45:10.040
<v Speaker 1>to think differently, You have to think independently, you have,

0:45:10.280 --> 0:45:13.160
<v Speaker 1>and then you also have to know that you could

0:45:13.200 --> 0:45:17.239
<v Speaker 1>be wrong. Right, Okay, it's two thousand and eight going

0:45:17.320 --> 0:45:21.480
<v Speaker 1>to be my two all over again? What what did

0:45:21.520 --> 0:45:24.920
<v Speaker 1>I do differently? So the things that I did differently

0:45:25.200 --> 0:45:28.399
<v Speaker 1>accounted for why we could do that comfortably? You know

0:45:28.800 --> 0:45:34.719
<v Speaker 1>that element comfortably comfortable, comfortable, much more comfortably, much more

0:45:34.800 --> 0:45:38.280
<v Speaker 1>comfortably could have been otherwise done. What sort of self

0:45:38.320 --> 0:45:41.760
<v Speaker 1>doubts were plaguing you in oh eight? Were you thinking, hey,

0:45:41.800 --> 0:45:43.839
<v Speaker 1>this is eighty two all over again? Did that enter

0:45:43.880 --> 0:45:47.200
<v Speaker 1>your head? Yes? Of course, right, is that that experience?

0:45:47.239 --> 0:45:49.680
<v Speaker 1>Am I going to be terribly wrong? Because here it is,

0:45:49.719 --> 0:45:52.640
<v Speaker 1>I'm calculating that we can have a meltdown, that we

0:45:52.680 --> 0:45:55.440
<v Speaker 1>can have that that whole exercise. But you had a

0:45:55.560 --> 0:45:58.640
<v Speaker 1>very different system assisting you at that time, right, I

0:45:58.680 --> 0:46:02.279
<v Speaker 1>had something like twenty five years more experience with that

0:46:02.440 --> 0:46:06.160
<v Speaker 1>other memory in my mind of all of those other

0:46:06.800 --> 0:46:09.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, lessons I learned in compensating ways and so

0:46:10.000 --> 0:46:12.959
<v Speaker 1>on and so so it would be like going into

0:46:13.000 --> 0:46:16.319
<v Speaker 1>the hurricane the next time, where the hurricane kicks the

0:46:16.320 --> 0:46:18.520
<v Speaker 1>hell out of you the first time, and then you

0:46:18.880 --> 0:46:21.279
<v Speaker 1>build systems and things and you go through and you

0:46:21.320 --> 0:46:24.640
<v Speaker 1>still say, oh, is this scary hurricane? And I hope

0:46:24.680 --> 0:46:27.359
<v Speaker 1>I'm well enough protected. But that's what it was like,

0:46:27.520 --> 0:46:34.120
<v Speaker 1>not knowing exactly, but having enough cautions and and diversifications

0:46:34.239 --> 0:46:39.960
<v Speaker 1>and calculations and triangulations and so on, which a girdered. Essentially,

0:46:40.480 --> 0:46:44.279
<v Speaker 1>um are decision making and going through that. So I

0:46:44.360 --> 0:46:47.440
<v Speaker 1>referenced the Old Weather portfolio. Let's let's talk about that

0:46:47.480 --> 0:46:51.200
<v Speaker 1>a little bit. Um. Essentially, you create the idea of

0:46:51.520 --> 0:46:57.239
<v Speaker 1>risk parity earlier, and then from two thousand and three, Um,

0:46:57.480 --> 0:47:00.400
<v Speaker 1>you set up the Old Weather portfolio where you were

0:47:00.440 --> 0:47:03.600
<v Speaker 1>the only clients. How did this scale up? What is

0:47:03.640 --> 0:47:06.560
<v Speaker 1>it dollars or something like that these days? How did

0:47:06.560 --> 0:47:11.800
<v Speaker 1>that scale up from raised pocket money to a full

0:47:12.200 --> 0:47:16.000
<v Speaker 1>institutional product. Well, I, you know, this was now the

0:47:16.040 --> 0:47:18.360
<v Speaker 1>stage that I had money that I was going to

0:47:18.480 --> 0:47:21.520
<v Speaker 1>be from my family beyond me. So I put together

0:47:21.560 --> 0:47:24.400
<v Speaker 1>a trust and I had to think, um, I'm not

0:47:24.440 --> 0:47:28.239
<v Speaker 1>going to be around to make tactical decisions and you know,

0:47:28.360 --> 0:47:31.160
<v Speaker 1>making money in the market alpha's zero sum game. You

0:47:31.200 --> 0:47:33.440
<v Speaker 1>don't know who's going to do it. What is the

0:47:33.520 --> 0:47:39.080
<v Speaker 1>perpetual excellent portfolio? What should that strategic asset allocation be right?

0:47:39.440 --> 0:47:42.480
<v Speaker 1>What is the mix of assets? And um I knew

0:47:42.520 --> 0:47:45.880
<v Speaker 1>how markets behaved in relationship to each other. Every market

0:47:47.400 --> 0:47:51.360
<v Speaker 1>is the present value of expected future cash flows discount

0:47:51.360 --> 0:47:54.240
<v Speaker 1>of present value of those cash flows, and those factors

0:47:54.280 --> 0:47:59.320
<v Speaker 1>are the main drivers are inflation and growth. And so

0:47:59.640 --> 0:48:03.600
<v Speaker 1>um I I knew how one market would go up

0:48:03.600 --> 0:48:06.520
<v Speaker 1>in another market would go down depending on the circumstances.

0:48:07.239 --> 0:48:10.040
<v Speaker 1>Maybe we wouldn't know what those circumstances of the future

0:48:10.080 --> 0:48:12.879
<v Speaker 1>would be, but we did know that they would move

0:48:12.960 --> 0:48:16.200
<v Speaker 1>around depending on those circumstances. So I didn't know how

0:48:16.239 --> 0:48:20.280
<v Speaker 1>to engineer for balance. And I knew that I could

0:48:20.640 --> 0:48:26.120
<v Speaker 1>um that they have comparable comparable risk assets are approximately

0:48:26.160 --> 0:48:29.040
<v Speaker 1>comparably good. If you think about let's say stocks, and

0:48:29.080 --> 0:48:32.359
<v Speaker 1>you compare them with bonds, what a stock is is

0:48:32.480 --> 0:48:37.160
<v Speaker 1>a leveraged equity, right, because the average company has a

0:48:37.239 --> 0:48:41.479
<v Speaker 1>debt um ratio debt equity ratio of one to one,

0:48:41.960 --> 0:48:44.759
<v Speaker 1>So it's leveraging that up. And the one thing I

0:48:44.800 --> 0:48:47.319
<v Speaker 1>think that you know of investing, and this has been

0:48:47.360 --> 0:48:51.200
<v Speaker 1>true throughout history is that cash has to have a lower,

0:48:51.239 --> 0:48:54.920
<v Speaker 1>lower expected return than other asset classes, because if it doesn't,

0:48:55.080 --> 0:48:58.040
<v Speaker 1>the whole system implodes. Another word, central banks put cash

0:48:58.040 --> 0:49:00.759
<v Speaker 1>on deposit. People with better idea has come alonger in

0:49:00.800 --> 0:49:03.040
<v Speaker 1>a higher return. If that doesn't work that way and

0:49:03.080 --> 0:49:05.759
<v Speaker 1>they are all a learning learning lower returns, the whole

0:49:05.760 --> 0:49:09.399
<v Speaker 1>thing implodes. So the notion is how to achieve that

0:49:09.560 --> 0:49:14.720
<v Speaker 1>right balance? And that's what motivated me to for myself put, um,

0:49:14.760 --> 0:49:17.279
<v Speaker 1>you know, most of my um money that I was

0:49:17.320 --> 0:49:20.960
<v Speaker 1>passing along structured that way, and I just, um, you know,

0:49:21.040 --> 0:49:23.239
<v Speaker 1>I told it to other clients. You know, here's how

0:49:23.320 --> 0:49:26.200
<v Speaker 1>you do it, and um, then they wanted us to

0:49:26.239 --> 0:49:29.080
<v Speaker 1>do it for them. And that's what we've been you know,

0:49:29.160 --> 0:49:32.400
<v Speaker 1>doing since we have been speaking with Ray Dalio. He

0:49:32.520 --> 0:49:36.239
<v Speaker 1>is the founder and chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates.

0:49:36.480 --> 0:49:38.960
<v Speaker 1>He is also the author of the New New York

0:49:38.960 --> 0:49:42.880
<v Speaker 1>Times bestseller Principles. I strongly suggest you go out and

0:49:42.960 --> 0:49:45.920
<v Speaker 1>read it. If you enjoy this conversation, be sure and

0:49:46.000 --> 0:49:48.840
<v Speaker 1>check out our podcast extras. Will we keep the tapes

0:49:48.960 --> 0:49:52.759
<v Speaker 1>rolling and continue to talk about all things investing. Be

0:49:52.840 --> 0:49:55.719
<v Speaker 1>sure and check out my daily column on Bloomberg view

0:49:55.760 --> 0:49:59.360
<v Speaker 1>dot com. You could follow me on Twitter at Ridholts.

0:49:59.480 --> 0:50:02.680
<v Speaker 1>You are now tweeting, aren't you? And your your Twitter

0:50:02.760 --> 0:50:07.960
<v Speaker 1>handle is at Dahlio at ray Dahlio at ray Dahio. UM.

0:50:08.000 --> 0:50:11.680
<v Speaker 1>We love your comments, feedback and suggestions right to us

0:50:11.719 --> 0:50:16.040
<v Speaker 1>at m IB podcast at Bloomberg dot net. I'm Barry Ridholts.

0:50:16.120 --> 0:50:32.200
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. Welcome

0:50:32.239 --> 0:50:34.360
<v Speaker 1>to the podcast, Ray, Thank you so much for doing this.

0:50:34.440 --> 0:50:37.600
<v Speaker 1>I've been looking forward to this for so long, UM,

0:50:37.600 --> 0:50:39.520
<v Speaker 1>and I'm really excited. I wish we had you for

0:50:39.560 --> 0:50:43.200
<v Speaker 1>another two hours. Of course, I have a million questions

0:50:43.280 --> 0:50:47.040
<v Speaker 1>for you that we didn't get to. Um. There's a

0:50:47.040 --> 0:50:49.239
<v Speaker 1>handful of things that that I have to ask you

0:50:49.320 --> 0:50:53.640
<v Speaker 1>before you get to our our favorite questions, starting with

0:50:53.880 --> 0:50:57.279
<v Speaker 1>I'm sure I'm gonna mangle this person's name. Wang o

0:50:57.480 --> 0:51:02.640
<v Speaker 1>ishans philosophy, Um, when Sean? When is she Sean? Okay?

0:51:04.440 --> 0:51:09.760
<v Speaker 1>The unwise worry over nothing, the capable worry about the future,

0:51:10.640 --> 0:51:16.160
<v Speaker 1>and heroes go for unattainable goals. Explain that philosophy because

0:51:16.280 --> 0:51:22.279
<v Speaker 1>I find that fascinating. Well, won't she Sean? Is very

0:51:22.840 --> 0:51:26.040
<v Speaker 1>very important? Man? In China? Some would say the number

0:51:26.040 --> 0:51:32.280
<v Speaker 1>two men in China, and um he was important shaper

0:51:32.320 --> 0:51:36.360
<v Speaker 1>of the Chinese economy for the last thirty years or so,

0:51:36.600 --> 0:51:40.680
<v Speaker 1>and then he was put in responsibility of eliminating corruption

0:51:40.719 --> 0:51:47.200
<v Speaker 1>in China. And UM he's a very anyway, quite a

0:51:47.200 --> 0:51:51.719
<v Speaker 1>remarkable man, and he always uh see things at the

0:51:51.840 --> 0:51:57.080
<v Speaker 1>higher level, you know, uh, the timeless and universal laws

0:51:57.800 --> 0:52:01.560
<v Speaker 1>of human nature and and so on. So when there

0:52:01.560 --> 0:52:05.279
<v Speaker 1>are ever discussions with him, uh, you know, uh, they

0:52:05.320 --> 0:52:10.359
<v Speaker 1>immediately rise to those highlight levels and discuss, you know,

0:52:10.400 --> 0:52:12.919
<v Speaker 1>how does reality work and how's it worked that way

0:52:12.920 --> 0:52:17.239
<v Speaker 1>through time? So, um, you know that's uh, that's why.

0:52:17.960 --> 0:52:21.600
<v Speaker 1>So uh, there's a sentence in the book that looks

0:52:21.680 --> 0:52:27.040
<v Speaker 1>like it's derived from that philosophy, which is, um, a

0:52:27.120 --> 0:52:29.840
<v Speaker 1>hero I'm gonna paraphrase. I'm gonna give the exact quote.

0:52:30.880 --> 0:52:35.360
<v Speaker 1>A hero is an ordinary person who has achieved something extraordinary,

0:52:35.840 --> 0:52:39.000
<v Speaker 1>something beyond the normal range of achievement. And I think

0:52:39.040 --> 0:52:43.960
<v Speaker 1>the exact quote is extraordinarily successful. People are not successful

0:52:44.040 --> 0:52:49.319
<v Speaker 1>because they are extraordinary. Is that related to you? My

0:52:49.480 --> 0:52:52.280
<v Speaker 1>son in two thousand fourteen gave me a book called

0:52:52.320 --> 0:52:57.360
<v Speaker 1>Hero of a Thousand Faces. Joseph Campbell, Joseph Campbell read

0:52:57.400 --> 0:53:01.120
<v Speaker 1>the book, very very famous book Assigned in College is

0:53:01.160 --> 0:53:05.440
<v Speaker 1>now all over like highly highly regarded, and it's so

0:53:05.560 --> 0:53:10.440
<v Speaker 1>interesting because what it does is it characterizes a particular

0:53:10.480 --> 0:53:13.000
<v Speaker 1>type of person who evolves to have a particular type

0:53:13.040 --> 0:53:16.439
<v Speaker 1>of life. And when we say hero um, like they said,

0:53:16.920 --> 0:53:20.680
<v Speaker 1>it doesn't mean um, you know, some unique particular person.

0:53:20.719 --> 0:53:23.120
<v Speaker 1>It means that a person goes down a particular path

0:53:23.760 --> 0:53:27.320
<v Speaker 1>and they achieve some extraordinary things and they get themselves

0:53:27.320 --> 0:53:30.800
<v Speaker 1>in a position where others are more important to them

0:53:30.800 --> 0:53:35.160
<v Speaker 1>than themselves. Okay, And there's a journey and he and

0:53:35.480 --> 0:53:38.080
<v Speaker 1>you go through that journey, and he recounts that journey.

0:53:38.320 --> 0:53:40.520
<v Speaker 1>It would take me too long here to recount the book.

0:53:40.600 --> 0:53:43.560
<v Speaker 1>But you know, first you have a taste for adventure.

0:53:43.680 --> 0:53:47.000
<v Speaker 1>You like adventure. You go out and with those adventures

0:53:47.239 --> 0:53:50.279
<v Speaker 1>you have your successes and your failures, and you know

0:53:50.400 --> 0:53:54.440
<v Speaker 1>your fights and so on, and you learn and inevitably, uh,

0:53:54.600 --> 0:53:58.480
<v Speaker 1>you have your crash, your big crash, he calls it

0:53:58.760 --> 0:54:01.920
<v Speaker 1>um the abyss or or the belly of the whale.

0:54:01.960 --> 0:54:05.960
<v Speaker 1>Experience that big crash and how that big crash, how

0:54:06.000 --> 0:54:09.960
<v Speaker 1>you handle it is the defining characteristic the um in

0:54:10.080 --> 0:54:14.600
<v Speaker 1>that big crash um. Some people have a metamorphosis. They

0:54:14.719 --> 0:54:18.720
<v Speaker 1>change in important ways. Most importantly, they gain the fear

0:54:18.800 --> 0:54:21.480
<v Speaker 1>of that crash, They gave wisdom and so on, and

0:54:21.520 --> 0:54:24.960
<v Speaker 1>then they continue on. Some people get off the field,

0:54:25.280 --> 0:54:27.040
<v Speaker 1>they have the big crash, they said, I don't want

0:54:27.040 --> 0:54:29.960
<v Speaker 1>to do this anymore, and they don't have a metamorphosis,

0:54:30.239 --> 0:54:32.520
<v Speaker 1>or if they don't have a metamorphosis, they crash again,

0:54:32.520 --> 0:54:35.799
<v Speaker 1>and they keep crashing. And so once they start to

0:54:35.920 --> 0:54:39.440
<v Speaker 1>learn those lessons, they begin to find out that they

0:54:39.480 --> 0:54:42.240
<v Speaker 1>can be more and more successful. I know that happened

0:54:42.239 --> 0:54:46.120
<v Speaker 1>to me. I crashed two changed my whole attitude about

0:54:46.200 --> 0:54:49.680
<v Speaker 1>decision making meta. It was my metamorphosis. And you go

0:54:49.760 --> 0:54:51.840
<v Speaker 1>on and you play your game and you have your fights.

0:54:52.280 --> 0:54:54.640
<v Speaker 1>And when you do this, and you do this with others,

0:54:55.040 --> 0:54:58.040
<v Speaker 1>the others in the mission becomes more important to you

0:54:58.360 --> 0:55:01.239
<v Speaker 1>than you in and of itself. And you get to

0:55:01.320 --> 0:55:04.640
<v Speaker 1>a later stage in life, and at that later stage

0:55:04.640 --> 0:55:07.799
<v Speaker 1>in life, you want them to be successful. You have

0:55:07.920 --> 0:55:10.799
<v Speaker 1>a bunch of battles that you fought. Oh you could

0:55:10.840 --> 0:55:13.760
<v Speaker 1>do that again. You can be successful again. The rewards

0:55:13.840 --> 0:55:16.279
<v Speaker 1>of being successful again is you know, is not the

0:55:16.360 --> 0:55:19.960
<v Speaker 1>same as the rewards of helping other people be successful.

0:55:20.280 --> 0:55:22.240
<v Speaker 1>And so when he gave it to me two thousand

0:55:22.200 --> 0:55:25.319
<v Speaker 1>and fourteen, like, you know, I don't like I don't

0:55:25.320 --> 0:55:27.920
<v Speaker 1>like public attention. I stayed away from public attention. I

0:55:27.920 --> 0:55:29.960
<v Speaker 1>don't like it. And then I'm thinking, I've got this

0:55:30.080 --> 0:55:33.600
<v Speaker 1>particular these principles that have helped me. And then I

0:55:33.719 --> 0:55:36.800
<v Speaker 1>and I think, okay, should I return the boon because

0:55:36.800 --> 0:55:39.600
<v Speaker 1>he describes the returning the boon, and returning the boon

0:55:39.680 --> 0:55:42.000
<v Speaker 1>means sort of returning the think the gifts that you

0:55:42.120 --> 0:55:45.279
<v Speaker 1>learned along the way to help others, and so like

0:55:45.719 --> 0:55:49.600
<v Speaker 1>as you're asking, it's not that the success is not

0:55:49.719 --> 0:55:52.600
<v Speaker 1>because of me. The success is not because of anybody

0:55:52.960 --> 0:55:55.960
<v Speaker 1>as much as it is the principles that are learned

0:55:56.000 --> 0:55:59.040
<v Speaker 1>along the way, the recipes that other people can have

0:55:59.320 --> 0:56:03.040
<v Speaker 1>in order to make them successful. And so that was

0:56:03.080 --> 0:56:05.839
<v Speaker 1>the you know, that's the lesson. That's the time us.

0:56:05.880 --> 0:56:08.640
<v Speaker 1>So I gave um Hero of a Thousand Faces to

0:56:08.880 --> 0:56:12.439
<v Speaker 1>n Sean because he's a hero, he's a classic hero,

0:56:12.880 --> 0:56:15.440
<v Speaker 1>and he's at a particular stage in his life, and

0:56:15.520 --> 0:56:18.080
<v Speaker 1>I thought that that would be uh, you know, helpful

0:56:18.120 --> 0:56:20.520
<v Speaker 1>to him. And I do find it helpful to a

0:56:20.520 --> 0:56:22.120
<v Speaker 1>lot of people, and a lot of people find it

0:56:22.360 --> 0:56:25.439
<v Speaker 1>helpful and interesting perspective, which is why you, as you say,

0:56:25.719 --> 0:56:28.640
<v Speaker 1>it's being read all over right. In fact, the book

0:56:28.680 --> 0:56:33.040
<v Speaker 1>has been described as the basis for every major piece

0:56:33.080 --> 0:56:37.200
<v Speaker 1>of literature film. It's just the classic narrative heroes journey

0:56:37.400 --> 0:56:43.480
<v Speaker 1>and kudos to Campbell star Wars. Exactly right, exactly, So,

0:56:43.760 --> 0:56:46.120
<v Speaker 1>since let's talk a little bit about returning the boon.

0:56:46.440 --> 0:56:50.799
<v Speaker 1>You've been exploring philanthropy as well as you have a

0:56:50.840 --> 0:56:55.239
<v Speaker 1>fascination with ocean exploration. How do you see the next

0:56:55.239 --> 0:56:59.400
<v Speaker 1>phase of your life? Um, working in those areas, be

0:56:59.480 --> 0:57:03.200
<v Speaker 1>it film for topic, anything involving um, what you're doing

0:57:03.239 --> 0:57:06.839
<v Speaker 1>now with os Yeah, the big picture, you know. So

0:57:07.000 --> 0:57:10.120
<v Speaker 1>three phases in one's life. I think first phase is

0:57:10.160 --> 0:57:12.399
<v Speaker 1>you're dependent on others and you're learning, you're a kid.

0:57:13.200 --> 0:57:18.480
<v Speaker 1>Second phase, Uh, you're working, others are dependent on you,

0:57:18.480 --> 0:57:22.680
<v Speaker 1>You're trying to be successful. The transition from the second

0:57:22.680 --> 0:57:25.440
<v Speaker 1>phase to the third phase is returning the boon, passing

0:57:25.480 --> 0:57:28.480
<v Speaker 1>along what you learned so that others can be successful

0:57:28.520 --> 0:57:31.120
<v Speaker 1>without you and you're free to live and free to die.

0:57:31.160 --> 0:57:34.320
<v Speaker 1>As they describe it, that's absolutely right. So that's where

0:57:34.880 --> 0:57:37.440
<v Speaker 1>I am so now is in that the main thing

0:57:37.480 --> 0:57:41.439
<v Speaker 1>about this other phrases, everybody's good without me, and I'm

0:57:41.480 --> 0:57:44.560
<v Speaker 1>free of obligation and I can have fun. Now where

0:57:44.600 --> 0:57:46.720
<v Speaker 1>do I want to go have fun? I love the markets.

0:57:46.760 --> 0:57:48.720
<v Speaker 1>I love the game. I will play the markets since

0:57:49.640 --> 0:57:52.800
<v Speaker 1>until I die, because that's a game I played all along.

0:57:52.880 --> 0:57:55.120
<v Speaker 1>I love it. I'll continue to do that. That will

0:57:55.160 --> 0:57:57.520
<v Speaker 1>be my main activity that and I'll continue to do

0:57:57.600 --> 0:58:00.600
<v Speaker 1>that at Bridgewater and as long as they find me useful,

0:58:00.720 --> 0:58:03.880
<v Speaker 1>I'll continue to do that. Uh. And then but there's

0:58:03.920 --> 0:58:06.560
<v Speaker 1>all the other joys of life. Life is a giant

0:58:06.600 --> 0:58:09.640
<v Speaker 1>s Morgensborg of of exciting things. And part of that,

0:58:09.680 --> 0:58:12.560
<v Speaker 1>as you say, is philanthropy. In other words, Um, you know,

0:58:12.560 --> 0:58:15.120
<v Speaker 1>I came from nothing. I'll end up with nothing at

0:58:15.160 --> 0:58:17.200
<v Speaker 1>the end of the day. And yet so to think

0:58:17.240 --> 0:58:20.680
<v Speaker 1>about who this could be used by for in important

0:58:20.720 --> 0:58:25.040
<v Speaker 1>ways is fantastic, right. So that that all, you know.

0:58:25.120 --> 0:58:27.280
<v Speaker 1>Then there's the approach of how do I do that?

0:58:27.720 --> 0:58:29.480
<v Speaker 1>You know? And well, you know, we do it as

0:58:29.520 --> 0:58:33.160
<v Speaker 1>a family activity. Different people have to uh find their passions,

0:58:33.360 --> 0:58:37.400
<v Speaker 1>so different people have different passions. For me, one of

0:58:37.400 --> 0:58:41.560
<v Speaker 1>the things that's passion uh for me is nature. I

0:58:41.640 --> 0:58:44.800
<v Speaker 1>love nature. I learned from lent nature. It's a big thing.

0:58:45.200 --> 0:58:49.360
<v Speaker 1>And I particularly um uh found the ocean to be

0:58:49.480 --> 0:58:53.480
<v Speaker 1>unbelievable because think about it, Um, there's a there's a

0:58:53.480 --> 0:58:58.560
<v Speaker 1>sheet that's the ocean UH layer, and that basically UH

0:58:58.840 --> 0:59:02.000
<v Speaker 1>is about half the world surface above it. The highest

0:59:02.000 --> 0:59:06.480
<v Speaker 1>point everest is equal to the greatest s depth, So

0:59:06.560 --> 0:59:11.720
<v Speaker 1>it's symmetrical, right, So there's a world under that sheet, um,

0:59:11.760 --> 0:59:16.480
<v Speaker 1>except of the world's surface is the ocean. So the

0:59:16.480 --> 0:59:20.480
<v Speaker 1>ocean space is about twice as large as all the

0:59:20.520 --> 0:59:23.680
<v Speaker 1>world that we know that's above the ocean, and it

0:59:23.720 --> 0:59:29.240
<v Speaker 1>hasn't explored, and it's unbelievably fascinating. It's unbelievably valuable in

0:59:29.480 --> 0:59:34.840
<v Speaker 1>in so many ways. So enabling ocean exploration and exploring

0:59:34.960 --> 0:59:37.600
<v Speaker 1>to go down there with scientists and all of that

0:59:37.880 --> 0:59:42.200
<v Speaker 1>I do find particularly enthralling. And I like to contribute

0:59:42.200 --> 0:59:45.160
<v Speaker 1>to people doing that. So I find my ways of

0:59:45.360 --> 0:59:48.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, ways of doing that. Blue Planet is going

0:59:48.280 --> 0:59:51.720
<v Speaker 1>to be coming out. Blue Planet to Okay, it's gonna

0:59:51.760 --> 0:59:54.720
<v Speaker 1>come out soon. Um. What we did is we put

0:59:54.760 --> 0:59:58.280
<v Speaker 1>scientists on it and and with we have an exploration

0:59:58.320 --> 1:00:00.760
<v Speaker 1>I have an exploration ship, put those scientists on it,

1:00:00.840 --> 1:00:03.760
<v Speaker 1>and let them then do things and help to make

1:00:03.800 --> 1:00:05.960
<v Speaker 1>people aware and bring them to that. That's one of

1:00:06.000 --> 1:00:08.640
<v Speaker 1>the things. But we do different things. My wife is

1:00:09.040 --> 1:00:16.400
<v Speaker 1>particularly UM affected by UM what are called UM disconnected

1:00:16.400 --> 1:00:20.720
<v Speaker 1>and disc and disengaged youth high school students in Connecticut

1:00:20.920 --> 1:00:25.200
<v Speaker 1>unbelievable UM disconnected meaning they're either not going to school

1:00:25.640 --> 1:00:29.440
<v Speaker 1>or not taking classes. That's right. So disengaged means they

1:00:29.480 --> 1:00:32.520
<v Speaker 1>go to school, but they're not really participating. They're you know,

1:00:32.640 --> 1:00:34.720
<v Speaker 1>just they don't study the test, they don't try much.

1:00:35.600 --> 1:00:40.040
<v Speaker 1>Disconnected is they don't know where they are. Two of

1:00:40.080 --> 1:00:43.160
<v Speaker 1>the high school students in Connecticut are one of those.

1:00:43.760 --> 1:00:47.600
<v Speaker 1>And that's what kind of futures are are they gonna have?

1:00:47.640 --> 1:00:49.240
<v Speaker 1>Where are they going to be? They're gonna be on

1:00:49.280 --> 1:00:52.160
<v Speaker 1>the streets and so on, And she relates very much

1:00:52.200 --> 1:00:54.560
<v Speaker 1>to those in terms of that tragedy. So that's where

1:00:54.560 --> 1:00:58.680
<v Speaker 1>her focus of activity is for philanthropy and so UM

1:00:58.760 --> 1:01:01.800
<v Speaker 1>and and so we have different focuses, but we share

1:01:01.840 --> 1:01:04.840
<v Speaker 1>those things as activities. I share that four sons, we

1:01:04.880 --> 1:01:07.800
<v Speaker 1>share them as activities. That's been my approach, and that's

1:01:07.840 --> 1:01:11.400
<v Speaker 1>been a thrill. You know, it's the right thing to

1:01:11.480 --> 1:01:14.440
<v Speaker 1>do at my stage of my life. So I know

1:01:14.480 --> 1:01:16.760
<v Speaker 1>I only have you for another seven or eight minutes.

1:01:17.360 --> 1:01:19.720
<v Speaker 1>Let me get to some at least a few of

1:01:19.760 --> 1:01:23.160
<v Speaker 1>some of my favorite questions before we run out of time.

1:01:23.960 --> 1:01:27.400
<v Speaker 1>Tell us the most important thing people don't know about

1:01:27.480 --> 1:01:33.920
<v Speaker 1>your background? Um that I'm that I. Um, you know,

1:01:34.040 --> 1:01:36.520
<v Speaker 1>I have a very modest background, and I have a

1:01:36.640 --> 1:01:41.640
<v Speaker 1>very bad rope memory. UM. So I don't think I

1:01:41.680 --> 1:01:48.120
<v Speaker 1>have much in the way of natural advantages. That bad

1:01:48.160 --> 1:01:50.200
<v Speaker 1>memory led you to writing things down? Is that the

1:01:50.240 --> 1:01:53.040
<v Speaker 1>weakness led to the principles. Um. I think to some

1:01:53.120 --> 1:01:56.600
<v Speaker 1>extent that contributed to me writing them down. Yeah, I

1:01:56.640 --> 1:01:59.800
<v Speaker 1>think it was a factor. Um. And although it was

1:02:00.000 --> 1:02:03.520
<v Speaker 1>of the factors more than the clarity and so on. Um.

1:02:03.560 --> 1:02:08.800
<v Speaker 1>But yeah, and I was a lousy student. I hated school. UM.

1:02:09.040 --> 1:02:13.680
<v Speaker 1>Got into uh, you know CW Post College on probation,

1:02:14.080 --> 1:02:18.640
<v Speaker 1>you know. Um. So there's nothing I think that's an

1:02:18.640 --> 1:02:22.560
<v Speaker 1>important thing to know about a number of people that. UM.

1:02:22.600 --> 1:02:25.120
<v Speaker 1>A lot of people think that people at the top

1:02:25.680 --> 1:02:29.200
<v Speaker 1>are just naturally special people, and you know it's easy

1:02:29.360 --> 1:02:32.840
<v Speaker 1>for them and all. And that's not true. I've come

1:02:32.880 --> 1:02:37.600
<v Speaker 1>to know the most powerful, most successful people in the world,

1:02:38.080 --> 1:02:40.280
<v Speaker 1>and I could tell you they all struggle and they

1:02:40.280 --> 1:02:43.200
<v Speaker 1>all have weaknesses. They just know how to struggle well

1:02:43.280 --> 1:02:45.720
<v Speaker 1>and they learn along the way. Know how to struggle

1:02:45.760 --> 1:02:48.200
<v Speaker 1>well and learn along the way. Okay, tell us about

1:02:48.280 --> 1:02:52.440
<v Speaker 1>some of your early mentors who guided your career. Um,

1:02:52.480 --> 1:02:57.479
<v Speaker 1>if anyone, you know, uh, I didn't not very much

1:02:57.560 --> 1:03:00.320
<v Speaker 1>in terms of like mentors, particular mentors that I would

1:03:00.320 --> 1:03:04.320
<v Speaker 1>go to. It's because of how I kind of learned, um,

1:03:04.400 --> 1:03:09.280
<v Speaker 1>which is I have to learn myself through experiences, you know. Uh. So,

1:03:09.600 --> 1:03:14.280
<v Speaker 1>I mean there are people I admire a lot. Um

1:03:14.320 --> 1:03:16.760
<v Speaker 1>so I think that they had probably an influence to

1:03:16.840 --> 1:03:20.000
<v Speaker 1>watch Paul Volker. Let me let me to watch Paul

1:03:20.080 --> 1:03:26.080
<v Speaker 1>Voker since through my lifetime, um, since nineteen seventy one

1:03:26.120 --> 1:03:28.280
<v Speaker 1>when he was the Under Secretary of the Treasury for

1:03:28.400 --> 1:03:31.960
<v Speaker 1>Monetary Affairs all through the eighties, and to watch him

1:03:32.000 --> 1:03:36.360
<v Speaker 1>as a highly respected person. I look around me and

1:03:36.960 --> 1:03:41.360
<v Speaker 1>I see people who I admire. I admire Mike Bloomberg.

1:03:41.520 --> 1:03:44.720
<v Speaker 1>I think Mike Bloomberg, for example, in building a business

1:03:44.800 --> 1:03:48.520
<v Speaker 1>and dealing with government, becoming a government official and a philanthropist,

1:03:48.760 --> 1:03:52.320
<v Speaker 1>has been extraordinarily effective in all of those different ways.

1:03:52.680 --> 1:03:55.600
<v Speaker 1>And it might not encourage him write down his principles,

1:03:55.600 --> 1:03:58.280
<v Speaker 1>his recipes for success, because when we like to know those.

1:03:58.640 --> 1:04:00.560
<v Speaker 1>And so there are a lot of people you know

1:04:00.640 --> 1:04:03.800
<v Speaker 1>in the markets. Paul Tutor Jones a friend of mine,

1:04:04.040 --> 1:04:08.200
<v Speaker 1>and so I admire him, and UM I Enmirement's character

1:04:08.520 --> 1:04:11.120
<v Speaker 1>and I admire you know, how he makes decisions, and

1:04:11.160 --> 1:04:13.920
<v Speaker 1>we talk a lot about that. So and I've had,

1:04:13.960 --> 1:04:16.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, many people, I don't want to name drop

1:04:16.160 --> 1:04:19.080
<v Speaker 1>too much, but a lot of people in their own ways.

1:04:19.360 --> 1:04:22.160
<v Speaker 1>Seeing what they're like and interacting them, I think had

1:04:22.200 --> 1:04:25.160
<v Speaker 1>an influence on me. I wouldn't say that I've had

1:04:25.680 --> 1:04:29.520
<v Speaker 1>any classic mentors along the way. So you mentioned Joseph

1:04:29.560 --> 1:04:32.320
<v Speaker 1>Campbell's Men of a Thousand Faces. What are some of

1:04:32.400 --> 1:04:37.880
<v Speaker 1>your other favorite books? Well, UM, two others UH come

1:04:37.920 --> 1:04:43.400
<v Speaker 1>to mind. UH A River from eden Um which is

1:04:43.440 --> 1:04:49.400
<v Speaker 1>written by Richard Dawkins, which is about evolution. Okay, evolution

1:04:50.120 --> 1:04:53.680
<v Speaker 1>is the greatest force in the world, in the universe,

1:04:54.360 --> 1:04:59.960
<v Speaker 1>and uh Man is a very small part of evolution.

1:05:00.840 --> 1:05:04.800
<v Speaker 1>And to watch how evolution works, those of the universal

1:05:04.960 --> 1:05:08.800
<v Speaker 1>laws of life that we then really have to deal

1:05:08.840 --> 1:05:12.360
<v Speaker 1>with UM is fascinating. It's a brief book. It's great.

1:05:12.880 --> 1:05:18.120
<v Speaker 1>Another UH brief book and remarkable books is uh Lessons

1:05:18.160 --> 1:05:23.600
<v Speaker 1>of History written by um uh Will Durant and his wife.

1:05:23.640 --> 1:05:26.480
<v Speaker 1>I think it was Ariel Durant who were probably the

1:05:26.520 --> 1:05:29.440
<v Speaker 1>greatest historians of the United States has had. They've covered

1:05:29.480 --> 1:05:33.760
<v Speaker 1>five thousand years of history, five thousand years on written

1:05:33.800 --> 1:05:36.760
<v Speaker 1>in five thousand pages. And then they take and they

1:05:36.920 --> 1:05:39.680
<v Speaker 1>created a book called Lessons of History, which is a

1:05:39.760 --> 1:05:44.160
<v Speaker 1>hundred and four pages. I like these high power short books,

1:05:44.320 --> 1:05:48.920
<v Speaker 1>um and um, and it takes those themes through history

1:05:49.200 --> 1:05:51.880
<v Speaker 1>and you know, sort of distills them down through their eyes.

1:05:52.720 --> 1:05:55.880
<v Speaker 1>Very interesting. But you know, UM, I don't know. There

1:05:55.880 --> 1:05:58.439
<v Speaker 1>are a lot of interesting too many, too many, too

1:05:58.480 --> 1:06:02.480
<v Speaker 1>many interesting books to read, and not enough time, not

1:06:02.720 --> 1:06:06.560
<v Speaker 1>enough time really for sure. UM. If a millennial or

1:06:06.640 --> 1:06:09.360
<v Speaker 1>recent college graduate came to you and said they're looking

1:06:09.400 --> 1:06:13.000
<v Speaker 1>for considering getting into finance, what sort of career advice

1:06:13.440 --> 1:06:17.040
<v Speaker 1>might you give them? Well, Um, first of all, know

1:06:17.160 --> 1:06:22.200
<v Speaker 1>your nature, know what your polls are, get go to

1:06:22.280 --> 1:06:29.280
<v Speaker 1>your polls. Then expect your problems and your failures, approach

1:06:29.360 --> 1:06:34.800
<v Speaker 1>those well and with equanimity, and then take those problems

1:06:34.800 --> 1:06:37.760
<v Speaker 1>and that failures and diagnose them and evolve in that

1:06:37.800 --> 1:06:41.160
<v Speaker 1>five step process. I would say that you will and

1:06:41.400 --> 1:06:46.400
<v Speaker 1>recognize that what you're going after will change and evolve

1:06:46.480 --> 1:06:50.520
<v Speaker 1>as you evolve to higher levels, So you know, follow

1:06:50.560 --> 1:06:53.560
<v Speaker 1>your passion. I would say, yeah, here's here's maybe the

1:06:53.600 --> 1:07:01.600
<v Speaker 1>simplest dreams plus embracing reality, knowing how it works well

1:07:02.480 --> 1:07:07.800
<v Speaker 1>and knowing how to deal with it, plus determination. So

1:07:07.880 --> 1:07:10.320
<v Speaker 1>you do that over and over and over will give

1:07:10.400 --> 1:07:14.080
<v Speaker 1>you a successful life and a lot of evolution. And

1:07:14.120 --> 1:07:17.640
<v Speaker 1>our final question, what is it that you know about

1:07:17.680 --> 1:07:22.000
<v Speaker 1>the world of markets and economies and investing today that

1:07:22.080 --> 1:07:24.560
<v Speaker 1>you wish you knew forty years ago when you were

1:07:24.600 --> 1:07:30.040
<v Speaker 1>first lunching Bridgewater? Oh? Well, so many things. I guess.

1:07:30.080 --> 1:07:34.680
<v Speaker 1>Maybe the thing that I think is the most common mistake, UM,

1:07:35.560 --> 1:07:40.800
<v Speaker 1>is that people think that investments that have done well

1:07:40.880 --> 1:07:47.320
<v Speaker 1>are good investments rather than more expensive. In other words,

1:07:47.400 --> 1:07:52.760
<v Speaker 1>that um, if it did well lately, they like it okay.

1:07:52.840 --> 1:07:55.560
<v Speaker 1>So that you you have to be you have to

1:07:55.600 --> 1:07:59.080
<v Speaker 1>know what something is really worth. And uh, I guess

1:07:59.080 --> 1:08:05.800
<v Speaker 1>another thing, UM that I learned that is that um,

1:08:05.800 --> 1:08:09.680
<v Speaker 1>every price, every day's price, is a function of buying

1:08:09.720 --> 1:08:13.320
<v Speaker 1>and selling. And if you know who the buyers and

1:08:13.360 --> 1:08:16.400
<v Speaker 1>the sellers are, and you know their quantities and you

1:08:16.479 --> 1:08:22.320
<v Speaker 1>know their motivations, it helps a lot more than the theoretical,

1:08:23.080 --> 1:08:27.559
<v Speaker 1>uh notion of what equilibrium values should be. Since we're

1:08:27.600 --> 1:08:33.519
<v Speaker 1>talking about philanthropy, you set something up with principles um

1:08:33.560 --> 1:08:37.679
<v Speaker 1>and Amazon dot com. Go to principles dot com slash

1:08:37.720 --> 1:08:40.920
<v Speaker 1>giving and tell us what that leads to. For a

1:08:41.000 --> 1:08:46.960
<v Speaker 1>number of years, I've given philanthropic people, charitable people donations

1:08:47.040 --> 1:08:52.040
<v Speaker 1>to their favorite charities as a holiday gift. Uh. And

1:08:52.800 --> 1:08:55.200
<v Speaker 1>well that's because there's just so much wasteful giving, you know,

1:08:55.200 --> 1:08:56.720
<v Speaker 1>and give them a sweater and whatever, and you have

1:08:56.800 --> 1:08:58.840
<v Speaker 1>to wrestle with what they're going to give it. And

1:08:58.920 --> 1:09:02.599
<v Speaker 1>this is really and appreciated gift. And most importantly, it

1:09:02.640 --> 1:09:06.360
<v Speaker 1>gets converts a lot of waste into getting people who

1:09:06.400 --> 1:09:08.920
<v Speaker 1>need it the most the most amount of money. So

1:09:09.320 --> 1:09:13.680
<v Speaker 1>the amount of money that is given for giving candy

1:09:13.720 --> 1:09:16.640
<v Speaker 1>in the holiday season is greater than the amount of

1:09:16.680 --> 1:09:20.600
<v Speaker 1>money that goes for the American Heart Association, annual budgets

1:09:20.640 --> 1:09:25.040
<v Speaker 1>of American Heart Association, American Cancer Society, and Habitat for

1:09:25.160 --> 1:09:28.479
<v Speaker 1>Humanity combined. And and so I figure if I can

1:09:28.520 --> 1:09:30.960
<v Speaker 1>pass that along, it's a great idea. A lot of

1:09:30.960 --> 1:09:34.120
<v Speaker 1>people like it. So I'm suggesting it and not what

1:09:34.200 --> 1:09:36.680
<v Speaker 1>I did for for the book to help to explain that,

1:09:36.720 --> 1:09:39.679
<v Speaker 1>and also, um, you know pass it along. Is that

1:09:39.840 --> 1:09:42.599
<v Speaker 1>for everybody who buys the book, I'll donate ten dollars

1:09:42.640 --> 1:09:45.160
<v Speaker 1>to their favorite charity. And I set it up in

1:09:45.800 --> 1:09:49.759
<v Speaker 1>through this length that you just referrincibles dot com slash giving.

1:09:49.840 --> 1:09:52.880
<v Speaker 1>Is that right? Yeah? Okay, And so every purchase of

1:09:52.920 --> 1:09:57.280
<v Speaker 1>the book through Amazon, ten dollars goes to they designated

1:09:57.360 --> 1:09:59.479
<v Speaker 1>charity and you donate the money to that change. That's right,

1:09:59.800 --> 1:10:03.760
<v Speaker 1>And it's so easy, so you know, buy book, go on.

1:10:04.040 --> 1:10:06.960
<v Speaker 1>I think the website's got like a million, two hundred

1:10:06.960 --> 1:10:09.160
<v Speaker 1>thousand charities or whatever, so it's easy to click in

1:10:09.520 --> 1:10:12.360
<v Speaker 1>to get to the charity of your choice and you

1:10:12.520 --> 1:10:16.280
<v Speaker 1>and it just gets there, right. And so so I'm

1:10:16.320 --> 1:10:19.400
<v Speaker 1>doing it not only because I know appreciate this kind

1:10:19.439 --> 1:10:21.479
<v Speaker 1>of giving and I appreciate the people who are operating

1:10:21.520 --> 1:10:25.040
<v Speaker 1>that way, but I also would like to get people

1:10:25.320 --> 1:10:27.960
<v Speaker 1>to see how easy it is and get the idea

1:10:28.040 --> 1:10:30.800
<v Speaker 1>coming along. So because I think if if we could

1:10:30.840 --> 1:10:33.960
<v Speaker 1>tilt a little bit of holiday giving so people think

1:10:33.960 --> 1:10:37.040
<v Speaker 1>it's a good idea, um, then it'll make a lot

1:10:37.080 --> 1:10:39.840
<v Speaker 1>of difference. So that's what I'm doing that's terrific. Thank

1:10:39.880 --> 1:10:43.439
<v Speaker 1>you ready, this has been absolutely fascinating. We have been

1:10:43.479 --> 1:10:47.800
<v Speaker 1>speaking with Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates. If you enjoy

1:10:47.920 --> 1:10:50.320
<v Speaker 1>this conversation, be sure and look up an intro Down

1:10:50.360 --> 1:10:53.360
<v Speaker 1>an Inch on Apple iTunes and you can see any

1:10:53.439 --> 1:10:57.080
<v Speaker 1>of our other hundred and seventy or so such conversations.

1:10:57.760 --> 1:11:00.960
<v Speaker 1>We love your comments, feedback and suggestion. Write to us

1:11:01.000 --> 1:11:04.760
<v Speaker 1>at m IB podcast at Bloomberg dot net. I would

1:11:04.800 --> 1:11:07.599
<v Speaker 1>be remiss if I did not thank my crack staff

1:11:07.920 --> 1:11:12.800
<v Speaker 1>who helped put together these conversations. Mendina Parwana is my producer,

1:11:13.000 --> 1:11:17.920
<v Speaker 1>slash audio engineer. Taylor Riggs is our producer booker. Mike

1:11:17.960 --> 1:11:21.080
<v Speaker 1>Patnick is our head of research. I'm Barry Retults. You've

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<v Speaker 1>been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.