WEBVTT - An Election Episode feat. Robert

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<v Speaker 1>A zone media. You wake up before dawn. This was

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<v Speaker 1>once abnormal for you, but ever since the election, you

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<v Speaker 1>found it harder and harder to sleep. You just barely

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<v Speaker 1>drifted off when the sound of shouts wafted in from

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<v Speaker 1>across the street. Reflected sirens bounce off your bedroom window.

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<v Speaker 1>Through a fog of sleep, you reflect on the last

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<v Speaker 1>few days. Voting went better you'd feared. It's what happened

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<v Speaker 1>in the days after that's kept your spine at a

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<v Speaker 1>constant eerie tingle. Several Republican led states are refusing to

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<v Speaker 1>certify their election results. Most analysts say the blizzard of

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<v Speaker 1>lawsuits launched on behalf of Trump have no chance at winning,

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<v Speaker 1>But that didn't stop the candidate from declaring victory and

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<v Speaker 1>promising to carry out his own inauguration no matter what

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<v Speaker 1>the courts decide. It's all absurd, laughable. But you live

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<v Speaker 1>on the border of a majority red county and your

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<v Speaker 1>sheriffs just announced support for the real winner of the election.

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<v Speaker 1>Your local PD have been notably silent, while right wing

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<v Speaker 1>provocateurs online have started circulating allegations of election fraud that

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<v Speaker 1>the sheriff has promised to look into. That was yesterday, today,

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<v Speaker 1>just after five, you're jolted awake in your bed by

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<v Speaker 1>the sound of breaking glass and screaming. You stay low

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<v Speaker 1>and crawl to your front window to peep out across

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<v Speaker 1>your yard and into the street. Before you, three police

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<v Speaker 1>cruisers are stacked up in front of your neighbor's house.

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<v Speaker 1>You can't imagine why. You know he did some volunteer

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<v Speaker 1>canvassing a few weeks back. He volunteered at a voting precinct.

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<v Speaker 1>Could they be there because of that? You try a

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<v Speaker 1>few different search terms on social media to puzzle out

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<v Speaker 1>the truth. It looks like a few people around the

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<v Speaker 1>country are reporting similar raids, but most of the posts

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<v Speaker 1>register is deleted before you can click on them. There's

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<v Speaker 1>more shouting from inside your neighbor's house, and within seconds

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<v Speaker 1>a pair of birdly deputies drag him out in front

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<v Speaker 1>and into a waiting squad car. It's dark outside, but

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<v Speaker 1>you think you might see blood.

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<v Speaker 2>On his face.

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<v Speaker 1>Your heart starts to pound. You feel the urge to

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<v Speaker 1>call someone, but the cops are already here. Who else

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<v Speaker 1>is there? As your mind raises, one of the officers

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<v Speaker 1>stationed outside turns back and looks towards your window. Recognition

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<v Speaker 1>sparks his eyes, he sees you, He starts to walk

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<v Speaker 1>over you, turn back, drop the shades, and with a

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<v Speaker 1>pounding heart, retreat to your bedroom. Maybe he won't knock,

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<v Speaker 1>Maybe he just wanted to scare you.

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<v Speaker 2>Maybe hello, everyone, hand welcome to It could happen here.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Robert Evanson. Back in early twenty nineteen, I released

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<v Speaker 1>the first season of this show. It wasn't a daily

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<v Speaker 1>news and politics podcast back then. Instead, it gave a

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<v Speaker 1>focused argument for why a new US civil war was

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<v Speaker 1>more frightening and possible than you might guess. Over the

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<v Speaker 1>last few years, that belief has become unfortunately mainstream. It

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<v Speaker 1>is no longer fringe or unique to talk about a

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<v Speaker 1>new civil war or as a real possibility. There was

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<v Speaker 1>a blockbuster movie earlier this year based around presenting what

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<v Speaker 1>it called a realistic picture of such a possibility. I'll

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<v Speaker 1>leave my thoughts on that for another time. A Marist

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<v Speaker 1>poll from earlier this year showed that forty seven percent

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<v Speaker 1>of Americans consider a second civil war likely or very likely.

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<v Speaker 1>This is a massive shift considering where things were when

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<v Speaker 1>I wrote this podcast series in twenty nineteen. That number

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<v Speaker 1>includes an expected fifty three percent of Republicans, but also

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<v Speaker 1>forty percent of Democrats and forty one percent of independence.

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<v Speaker 1>Depending on how you want to see it, I've either

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<v Speaker 1>been vindicated as much as as possible for someone in

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<v Speaker 1>my line of work, or I've played an outsized role

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<v Speaker 1>in creating a particularly dangerous eggregore in the collective unconsciousness

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<v Speaker 1>of our nation, effectively talking this possibility into being. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>really not sure either way. My conscience has been troubled

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<v Speaker 1>on that matter ever since the first episode started coming out.

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<v Speaker 1>Remember midway through the first season, we dropped an extra

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<v Speaker 1>episode I hadn't initially intended as part of the run,

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<v Speaker 1>just trying to stop people from panicking, and ever since

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<v Speaker 1>I've kept that as a particular goal in my head. However,

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<v Speaker 1>you want to, you know, think about this. The first

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<v Speaker 1>season of It could happen here undoubtedly helped to make

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<v Speaker 1>my career today. Sophie and I run an entire network

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<v Speaker 1>that employees several dozen people, largely on the strength of

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<v Speaker 1>that series. And yet I have no issue telling you

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<v Speaker 1>that I don't have any idea how election Day is.

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<v Speaker 2>Going to go.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, we've had a lot of polls lately that

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<v Speaker 1>seem much better for Harris. A number of pollsters are

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<v Speaker 1>starting to shift. You know, there's a good chance that

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<v Speaker 1>they were hurting in the direction of Trump because they

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<v Speaker 1>didn't want to underestimate him again. But there's also a

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<v Speaker 1>good chance that, you know, that Sealzer poll is an outlier,

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<v Speaker 1>and now these guys are hurting in the direction of

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<v Speaker 1>Harris winning because they don't want to be embarrassed. I

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<v Speaker 1>really have no idea what's going to happen. My official

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<v Speaker 1>stance is that it's probably pretty close to a coin flip,

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<v Speaker 1>although maybe one that favors Harris now you know, more

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<v Speaker 1>than one that favors Trump. Whatever happens, I don't know

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<v Speaker 1>what's going to happen, let alone what's going to happen

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<v Speaker 1>the day after. And as I sat down to write

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<v Speaker 1>this episode, which is going to air on the day

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<v Speaker 1>of the election, I went back and forth as to

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<v Speaker 1>where the focus should be. I did consider doing another

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<v Speaker 1>Don't Panic style episode. Perhaps that would have been the call.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, depending on how today goes, people might either

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<v Speaker 1>be listening to this and you know, relaxing, or listening

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<v Speaker 1>to this and in a heightened state of panic. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>it really depends on where things are and where things

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<v Speaker 1>are and the counting of votes by this period of time.

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<v Speaker 1>My reasoning on what I decided to do is pretty simple,

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<v Speaker 1>which is that I think there's a good chance we

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<v Speaker 1>either know or have a strong inkling of how this

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<v Speaker 1>election is going to shake out by the time this

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<v Speaker 1>episode airs, and at the time I write this, the

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<v Speaker 1>indicators do look better for Harris than for Trump, enough

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<v Speaker 1>that I'd say the election leans in her direction, and

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<v Speaker 1>so I think there's a lot of value in talking

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<v Speaker 1>about what might happen in the aftermath of that. If

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<v Speaker 1>Trump tries to protest the election results, and if he

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<v Speaker 1>goes particularly trying to protest by force, and if that's

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<v Speaker 1>the case, if that's the direction he lands in, I

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<v Speaker 1>think these shooters that we have to worry about. And

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<v Speaker 1>I mean that in the figurative sense, right, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>people who support him, will who will put skin in

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<v Speaker 1>the game in order to try to force him into office.

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<v Speaker 1>I think they're different than they were last time. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't think the threat here is that a bunch of

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<v Speaker 1>proud boys and the like raid the capital next January.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the threat here has a lot more to

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<v Speaker 1>do with licensed law enforcement officers who have already declared

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<v Speaker 1>themselves in the tank for Trump. We ran an episode

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<v Speaker 1>just the other day about the Constitutional Sheriff's movement. There's

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<v Speaker 1>a lot to say about that. One in four law

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<v Speaker 1>enforcement officers today report to a sheriff. They make twenty

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<v Speaker 1>percent of all arrests in the country. Earlier this year,

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<v Speaker 1>Wired published an article on the are right sheriff's ready

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<v Speaker 1>to disrupt the election? It focused heavily on dar Leif,

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<v Speaker 1>who sits on the board of the Constitutional Sheriffs and

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<v Speaker 1>Peace Officers Association or CSPOA. Leif, a Trump supporter and

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<v Speaker 1>sheriff in Berry County, Michigan, has spent the lead up

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<v Speaker 1>to this election investigating the twenty twenty election. He's tried

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<v Speaker 1>to seize voting machines and run militia training courses where

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<v Speaker 1>he offers to teach potential jurors, homeschoolers, ladies, and gentlemen

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<v Speaker 1>how to form an ad hoc posse, each member armed

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<v Speaker 1>with quote a standard Air fifteen type military grade weapon

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<v Speaker 1>and at least five hundred rounds of AMMO. Speaking of

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<v Speaker 1>five hundred rounds of AMMO, he probably can't buy that

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<v Speaker 1>from our sponsors, but here they are. We're back and

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<v Speaker 1>we're talking about a constitutional sheriff who sits on the

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<v Speaker 1>board of that organization named dar Leaf. Leif has already

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<v Speaker 1>promised to have his posse patrolling stations in Barry County

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<v Speaker 1>to watch for evidence of fraud and the legal immigrant

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<v Speaker 1>voting in what's expected to be one of the swing

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<v Speaker 1>states this election might hinge on. Deeply reported articles like

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<v Speaker 1>that Wired piece have warred in my own personal paranoia

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<v Speaker 1>with troubling accounts on social media. The day before the election,

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<v Speaker 1>which is when I wrote this, I came across a

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<v Speaker 1>post on the Pennsylvania subreddit from a Philly voter titled

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<v Speaker 1>my dad just got harassed by a police officer about

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<v Speaker 1>the election.

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<v Speaker 2>Quote.

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<v Speaker 1>He was driving down the Old Lincoln Highway when a

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<v Speaker 1>trooper stopped him and asked him if he was voting tomorrow. Trooper,

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<v Speaker 1>Will you be voting tomorrow, dad? That's none of your business, trooper.

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<v Speaker 1>Who are you voting for tomorrow?

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<v Speaker 2>Dad?

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<v Speaker 1>None of your business?

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<v Speaker 2>Trooper.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh sir, you're illegal now. The poster's dad, who is Hispanic,

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<v Speaker 1>stated that he didn't have to answer that and asked

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<v Speaker 1>if he was being detained. The trooper let him go,

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<v Speaker 1>but later, according to the poster. This happened when my

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<v Speaker 1>dad went to the precinct three other people there to

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<v Speaker 1>report the exact same story election harassment at a traffic stop.

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<v Speaker 1>Turns out the officer or officers doing it art even

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<v Speaker 1>from Bucks County or Pennsylvania. Their new Jersey State troopers

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<v Speaker 1>wild across state borders to harass people driving down the highway.

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<v Speaker 1>In the lead up to the twenty twenty election, we

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<v Speaker 1>were all deeply worried about the dangers of different far

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<v Speaker 1>right groups, militias and organizations like the Proud Boys who

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<v Speaker 1>wore right wing death squad patches and threatened to throw

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<v Speaker 1>leftists out of helicopters when their god Emperor won reelection. Today,

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<v Speaker 1>most of those figures are either a spent force or

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<v Speaker 1>something that cannot act on its own, reliant upon the

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<v Speaker 1>backing of groups like the aforementioned constitutional sheriffs, or being

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<v Speaker 1>empowered by a Trump controlled White House if they want

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<v Speaker 1>to have any hope of being directly relevant. Again, the

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<v Speaker 1>positive side of this is that it allows us to

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<v Speaker 1>triage our fears. The downside is that independent paramilitary actors

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<v Speaker 1>are in fact something we can easily combat as individuals

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<v Speaker 1>and ins communities. Portland proved that when it eventually won

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<v Speaker 1>its five year street battle to oust these sundry right

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<v Speaker 1>wing groups from constant occupations of the city. When groups

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<v Speaker 1>like the Proud Boys crossed the line into outright violence,

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<v Speaker 1>it is legal to meet them with defensive violence, and

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<v Speaker 1>they can and have been beaten this way. That's simply

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<v Speaker 1>not something the extant left wing community defense organizations and

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<v Speaker 1>political groups in this country can say and do against,

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<v Speaker 1>For example, law enforcement entities hell bent on executing a

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<v Speaker 1>purge against the left. In rallies prior to the election,

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<v Speaker 1>Trump has often merged promises to prosecute his political opponents

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<v Speaker 1>US with promises to use ice to deport twenty million

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<v Speaker 1>illegals and descend in the military or federal law enforcement

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<v Speaker 1>to clean up cities. I want to quote now from

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<v Speaker 1>an article in The New Republic reporting on a rally

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<v Speaker 1>earlier this year in Wilmington, North Carolina. Today, I am

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<v Speaker 1>announcing a new plan to end all sanctuary cities in

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<v Speaker 1>North Carolina and across our country, said Trump, no more

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<v Speaker 1>or sanctuary cities. As soon as I take office, we

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<v Speaker 1>will immediately surge federal law enforcement to every city that

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<v Speaker 1>is failing, which is a lot of them to turn

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<v Speaker 1>over criminal aliens, and we will hunt down and capture

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<v Speaker 1>every single gang member, drug dealer, rapist, murderer, and migrant

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<v Speaker 1>criminal that is being illegally harbored. The article goes on

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<v Speaker 1>to note Trump has previously vowed to militarize US law

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<v Speaker 1>enforcement to restore law and order to our cities, which

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<v Speaker 1>he claimed to have become cesspools of bloodshed and crime

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<v Speaker 1>under President Joe Biden. Trump has argued that additional federal

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<v Speaker 1>funding and forces would help supplement supposedly defunded police departments,

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<v Speaker 1>but that extra help would only go to cities that

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<v Speaker 1>complied with ICE. Now, this is scary stuff and it

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<v Speaker 1>would necessitate some sort of response if it were to happen.

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<v Speaker 1>But I don't really know how to tell you to

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<v Speaker 1>organize against it right now. There are so many unknowns

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<v Speaker 1>that one would need to factor into any plans. I

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<v Speaker 1>could theorize about underground railroads to help people avoid deportation

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<v Speaker 1>or to avoid being raided for their past political activism,

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<v Speaker 1>and I could base those theories on, for exampample, how

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<v Speaker 1>activists in Nazi Germany helped tide people from the Gestapo.

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<v Speaker 1>But those heroes of yesteryear existed in a world where

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<v Speaker 1>the technological tools available to the enemy were primitive beyond

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<v Speaker 1>compare to what exists today. Perhaps the most chilling article

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<v Speaker 1>I read this year had nothing to do with ice

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<v Speaker 1>or right wing paramilitaries and everything to do with the

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<v Speaker 1>technology that has been standard among law enforcement for years.

0:12:23.400 --> 0:12:27.760
<v Speaker 1>License plate recognition systems like motorolas dr in use optical

0:12:27.840 --> 0:12:31.360
<v Speaker 1>character recognition technology to identify the text of a vehicle's

0:12:31.400 --> 0:12:34.440
<v Speaker 1>license plate and put it in a searchable database. The

0:12:34.520 --> 0:12:38.360
<v Speaker 1>policing implications of this are obvious and not all negative,

0:12:38.600 --> 0:12:41.000
<v Speaker 1>although it's far from clear if they actually work too.

0:12:41.400 --> 0:12:43.440
<v Speaker 1>The idea is that if someone carries out a drive

0:12:43.480 --> 0:12:45.599
<v Speaker 1>by shooting, or assaults a woman on the street, or

0:12:45.600 --> 0:12:48.640
<v Speaker 1>is seen fleeing some other form of dangerous crime by

0:12:48.640 --> 0:12:50.880
<v Speaker 1>someone who gets the car, make and model and maybe

0:12:50.880 --> 0:12:53.640
<v Speaker 1>the first couple letters of the plate. Dn r's database

0:12:53.640 --> 0:12:57.079
<v Speaker 1>of more than fifteen billion vehicle sidings, built from automatic

0:12:57.120 --> 0:13:00.120
<v Speaker 1>recordings of license plate reading cameras on police cruisers and

0:13:00.160 --> 0:13:03.200
<v Speaker 1>tow trucks and the like, might well help identify and

0:13:03.280 --> 0:13:06.520
<v Speaker 1>stop someone before they hunter kill again. Now their serious

0:13:06.559 --> 0:13:10.240
<v Speaker 1>reason to question whether or not this system actually works

0:13:10.280 --> 0:13:12.520
<v Speaker 1>this way. I'm not claiming to take the stance on

0:13:12.559 --> 0:13:14.760
<v Speaker 1>this one way or the other. I'm not an expert

0:13:14.760 --> 0:13:17.600
<v Speaker 1>on this, but the issue here from a privacy standpoint,

0:13:17.640 --> 0:13:21.320
<v Speaker 1>when we imagine what might happen in a future Trump

0:13:21.520 --> 0:13:25.160
<v Speaker 1>dominated government, is that you can't train a system like

0:13:25.240 --> 0:13:28.559
<v Speaker 1>this to only pay attention to license plates, nor is

0:13:28.600 --> 0:13:31.520
<v Speaker 1>there any benefit to Motorola in doing so. In recent

0:13:31.600 --> 0:13:35.040
<v Speaker 1>investigations conducted by a private detective with access to dn

0:13:35.120 --> 0:13:37.760
<v Speaker 1>r's database for her work have shown that someone with

0:13:37.920 --> 0:13:40.760
<v Speaker 1>access to this database can search based on more than

0:13:40.840 --> 0:13:44.400
<v Speaker 1>just license plates. They can look up signs supporting political

0:13:44.440 --> 0:13:46.920
<v Speaker 1>candidates and match them to front yards and thus to

0:13:47.040 --> 0:13:50.920
<v Speaker 1>people's addresses. They can find individuals who were captured by

0:13:50.920 --> 0:13:53.320
<v Speaker 1>these cameras, and there are again billions of these photos wearing,

0:13:53.360 --> 0:13:57.600
<v Speaker 1>for example, planned parenthood shirts. This is not an idle fear.

0:13:57.720 --> 0:14:00.920
<v Speaker 1>This is a weapon that could very easily be used

0:14:00.920 --> 0:14:03.840
<v Speaker 1>by the enemy within months of you listening to this.

0:14:03.840 --> 0:14:06.200
<v Speaker 1>This is also a weapon that, in an event like

0:14:06.240 --> 0:14:08.640
<v Speaker 1>the one I forecasted at the start of this episode,

0:14:08.880 --> 0:14:12.800
<v Speaker 1>could be used to crack down on activists and voters

0:14:12.840 --> 0:14:15.520
<v Speaker 1>in counties that are loyal to Trump in some sort

0:14:15.520 --> 0:14:20.640
<v Speaker 1>of national schism. Situation. Police officers already misused databases like

0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:24.000
<v Speaker 1>this with comic regularity. In twenty twenty two, a different

0:14:24.040 --> 0:14:27.800
<v Speaker 1>Wired investigation showed that hundreds of ICE employees and contractors

0:14:27.840 --> 0:14:31.680
<v Speaker 1>had been caught abusing similar databases made via license plate

0:14:31.720 --> 0:14:36.000
<v Speaker 1>recognition systems. Some had used them to stalk citizens. Stuff

0:14:36.000 --> 0:14:39.360
<v Speaker 1>like this pairs forebodingly with threats made by emboldened pro

0:14:39.440 --> 0:14:43.240
<v Speaker 1>Trump cops earlier this election season. I'm talking about something

0:14:43.280 --> 0:14:46.320
<v Speaker 1>that happened in September, when Ohio Sheriff of Portage County

0:14:46.360 --> 0:14:49.880
<v Speaker 1>Bruce Sukowski posted a screenshot of a Fox News segment

0:14:49.960 --> 0:14:53.400
<v Speaker 1>criticizing the current president over his immigration record and the

0:14:53.440 --> 0:14:57.520
<v Speaker 1>impact of Haitian migrants on Springfield, Ohio, from an article

0:14:57.520 --> 0:15:01.120
<v Speaker 1>in The ap by Michael Rubicam likening people in the

0:15:01.200 --> 0:15:04.640
<v Speaker 1>US illegally to human locusts, Zukowski wrote on a personal

0:15:04.640 --> 0:15:07.560
<v Speaker 1>Facebook account and his campaign's account, when people ask me,

0:15:07.640 --> 0:15:10.560
<v Speaker 1>what's going to happen if the flip flopping, laughing hyena wins,

0:15:10.600 --> 0:15:13.200
<v Speaker 1>I say write down all the addresses of the people

0:15:13.240 --> 0:15:16.920
<v Speaker 1>who had their signs in their yards that way, Zukowski continued.

0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:19.600
<v Speaker 1>When migrants need places to live, we're already have the

0:15:19.600 --> 0:15:23.640
<v Speaker 1>addresses of their new families who supported their arrival. Now,

0:15:23.800 --> 0:15:26.800
<v Speaker 1>as the full context of that statement makes clear, Zukowski

0:15:26.880 --> 0:15:29.760
<v Speaker 1>was not technically threatening Harris voters. But it's pretty much

0:15:29.760 --> 0:15:32.200
<v Speaker 1>impossible for me to take that as anything but a threat,

0:15:32.400 --> 0:15:35.560
<v Speaker 1>just one dressed up enough for plausible deniability and an

0:15:35.640 --> 0:15:38.600
<v Speaker 1>environment where the future ability of Zukowski and those like

0:15:38.680 --> 0:15:42.320
<v Speaker 1>him to punish Democrats is still unclear. And we're going

0:15:42.360 --> 0:15:45.840
<v Speaker 1>to talk more about that, but first here's another ad break.

0:15:56.640 --> 0:15:56.880
<v Speaker 2>Now.

0:15:57.080 --> 0:15:59.440
<v Speaker 1>I don't mean to make it sound like that there's

0:15:59.440 --> 0:16:02.400
<v Speaker 1>nothing that can be done to fight against technological tools

0:16:02.440 --> 0:16:05.360
<v Speaker 1>in the arsenal of repression like this, but I have

0:16:05.400 --> 0:16:07.800
<v Speaker 1>no doubt that if the Republicans do take total power,

0:16:07.880 --> 0:16:10.160
<v Speaker 1>they will read any positive election result for them as

0:16:10.200 --> 0:16:12.440
<v Speaker 1>a mandate to punish the left and purge the people.

0:16:12.440 --> 0:16:15.640
<v Speaker 1>Trump is already repeatedly called the enemy within, and I

0:16:15.720 --> 0:16:18.160
<v Speaker 1>worry that in the event of any sort of national schism,

0:16:18.240 --> 0:16:20.840
<v Speaker 1>either where there's an extended period of time where Trump

0:16:20.880 --> 0:16:23.280
<v Speaker 1>is claiming to have been the winner, or if there's

0:16:23.320 --> 0:16:26.640
<v Speaker 1>a situation where he just has himself inaugurated in Florida

0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:29.240
<v Speaker 1>and you have a bunch of these counties and states

0:16:29.280 --> 0:16:31.920
<v Speaker 1>around the country sign up for Trump, that the first

0:16:31.920 --> 0:16:34.240
<v Speaker 1>thing we'll see law enforcement do in these areas is

0:16:34.280 --> 0:16:37.360
<v Speaker 1>punished the enemy within, especially if they declare themselves on

0:16:37.400 --> 0:16:39.800
<v Speaker 1>a war footing with the rest of the country. These

0:16:39.840 --> 0:16:43.600
<v Speaker 1>are all things that are maybe not the likeliest possibility here,

0:16:43.640 --> 0:16:45.840
<v Speaker 1>but they are something to keep in mind, and they

0:16:45.840 --> 0:16:48.920
<v Speaker 1>are something that represents a real danger at this point.

0:16:48.960 --> 0:16:51.040
<v Speaker 1>I don't think anyone who's paid attention to the kinds

0:16:51.040 --> 0:16:54.000
<v Speaker 1>of thing the Republicans have been saying lately can deny that.

0:16:54.720 --> 0:16:57.640
<v Speaker 1>Now it is important to remember that whatever plan these

0:16:57.680 --> 0:17:01.080
<v Speaker 1>people try won't work as as well as they hope.

0:17:01.120 --> 0:17:03.320
<v Speaker 1>We've been watching them for years, and if there's one

0:17:03.360 --> 0:17:05.240
<v Speaker 1>thing you know about all of the people around Trump,

0:17:05.280 --> 0:17:07.600
<v Speaker 1>it's that they're fuck ups. That doesn't mean they can't win,

0:17:07.680 --> 0:17:10.480
<v Speaker 1>it doesn't mean they're not dangerous. It just means that

0:17:10.520 --> 0:17:13.439
<v Speaker 1>they're going to make mistakes. Now, those mistakes aren't going

0:17:13.480 --> 0:17:15.880
<v Speaker 1>to be survivable for everybody that we care about, which

0:17:15.920 --> 0:17:19.040
<v Speaker 1>is something that should be on your mind. Bruce and

0:17:19.119 --> 0:17:21.840
<v Speaker 1>most of the Trump aligned police, local and federals still

0:17:21.840 --> 0:17:24.680
<v Speaker 1>feel a need to couch their threats in deniable terms, though,

0:17:25.119 --> 0:17:27.360
<v Speaker 1>but many on the far right have been less careful,

0:17:27.359 --> 0:17:29.920
<v Speaker 1>and one thing we've seen is this election has lurched

0:17:30.240 --> 0:17:33.639
<v Speaker 1>closer to its conclusion. Is a lot of people, people

0:17:33.760 --> 0:17:38.240
<v Speaker 1>like particularly Elon Musk, have absolutely taken their masks off. Now.

0:17:38.280 --> 0:17:39.720
<v Speaker 1>I think this had a lot to do with the

0:17:39.760 --> 0:17:42.280
<v Speaker 1>fact that Trump was looking more like the favorite a

0:17:42.280 --> 0:17:45.359
<v Speaker 1>couple of weeks ago, and they felt like after years

0:17:45.400 --> 0:17:48.120
<v Speaker 1>of having to do what Bruce did, having to cover

0:17:48.280 --> 0:17:51.959
<v Speaker 1>up their outright eliminationist impulses, they no longer had to

0:17:52.040 --> 0:17:55.400
<v Speaker 1>do that now. Obviously, some influential people on the far

0:17:55.520 --> 0:17:57.760
<v Speaker 1>right have been mask off from much longer, and this

0:17:57.840 --> 0:18:00.159
<v Speaker 1>is something that should concern you as well. One of

0:18:00.160 --> 0:18:02.919
<v Speaker 1>the most sinister examples of this is Jack Pisobic, a

0:18:02.960 --> 0:18:07.439
<v Speaker 1>former US Navy intelligence officer whose recent book Unhumans is

0:18:07.480 --> 0:18:10.760
<v Speaker 1>framed as a secret history of communist revolutions. From an

0:18:10.840 --> 0:18:14.240
<v Speaker 1>article in Mother Jones quote they being Pisobic and his

0:18:14.320 --> 0:18:16.479
<v Speaker 1>co author, claim, for as long as there have been

0:18:16.520 --> 0:18:18.560
<v Speaker 1>beauty and truth, love and life, there have also been

0:18:18.600 --> 0:18:21.439
<v Speaker 1>the ugly liars who hate and kill, and these people

0:18:21.480 --> 0:18:26.520
<v Speaker 1>of anti civilization have always gone by different names communists, socialists, leftists,

0:18:26.520 --> 0:18:29.160
<v Speaker 1>and progressives. The pair contend that these folks be they

0:18:29.160 --> 0:18:32.280
<v Speaker 1>the Bolsheviks of Russia or the BLM activists of this decade,

0:18:32.520 --> 0:18:36.159
<v Speaker 1>are better called unhumans. It's a hard edged message. The

0:18:36.200 --> 0:18:39.119
<v Speaker 1>foes of conservatism are not merely misguided souls pushing the

0:18:39.160 --> 0:18:42.760
<v Speaker 1>wrong policies, but people who seek to annihilate civilization. They

0:18:42.880 --> 0:18:45.880
<v Speaker 1>rob and kill. Pisobic and Lysek, his co author, maintain

0:18:46.160 --> 0:18:48.000
<v Speaker 1>they don't believe what they say. They don't care about

0:18:48.040 --> 0:18:50.359
<v Speaker 1>winning debates. They don't even want a quality. They just

0:18:50.400 --> 0:18:53.440
<v Speaker 1>want an excuse to destroy everything. They want an excuse

0:18:53.480 --> 0:18:57.200
<v Speaker 1>to destroy you. Now, Jack has been a laughable character

0:18:57.240 --> 0:18:59.840
<v Speaker 1>for much of his career, but his outright eliminationist rhetoric

0:18:59.800 --> 0:19:02.520
<v Speaker 1>has had an audience in the howls of power. Jd

0:19:02.640 --> 0:19:05.239
<v Speaker 1>Vance himself provided a blurb for the book, claiming it

0:19:05.320 --> 0:19:08.439
<v Speaker 1>shows us what to do to fight back. Steve Bannon

0:19:08.520 --> 0:19:12.119
<v Speaker 1>meanwhile wrote the forward. Now, I started this episode with

0:19:12.119 --> 0:19:15.119
<v Speaker 1>a fictional vignette imagining what might happen if Trump chooses

0:19:15.160 --> 0:19:17.680
<v Speaker 1>to contest the election without right force, and he might.

0:19:18.280 --> 0:19:20.119
<v Speaker 1>The good news is I think that such an effort

0:19:20.119 --> 0:19:22.359
<v Speaker 1>would be doomed to fail if he sticks to the

0:19:22.359 --> 0:19:25.280
<v Speaker 1>courts trying to refuse certifications and kick the election to

0:19:25.320 --> 0:19:28.320
<v Speaker 1>the House is a better chance at succeeding, and it

0:19:28.359 --> 0:19:31.320
<v Speaker 1>is possible that isolated thefts of ballots and arrests of

0:19:31.359 --> 0:19:34.119
<v Speaker 1>poll workers could play into a broader effort like this,

0:19:34.640 --> 0:19:37.480
<v Speaker 1>but doing so is a big risk. My gut tells

0:19:37.520 --> 0:19:40.879
<v Speaker 1>me that moving so openly resorting to violence first creates

0:19:40.920 --> 0:19:43.800
<v Speaker 1>a situation in which the Biden administration and the incoming

0:19:43.840 --> 0:19:46.920
<v Speaker 1>Harris administration would have to respond with force. There would

0:19:46.920 --> 0:19:49.960
<v Speaker 1>have to be consequences, and given that they currently control

0:19:50.000 --> 0:19:52.320
<v Speaker 1>the arsenal of state power, I think they would win

0:19:52.440 --> 0:19:54.480
<v Speaker 1>even in the event that you have all of these

0:19:54.520 --> 0:19:58.200
<v Speaker 1>sheriffs break for Trump in some sort of insurgent situation develop.

0:19:58.920 --> 0:20:02.120
<v Speaker 1>If that were to happen, and having backed this insurgency

0:20:02.160 --> 0:20:04.600
<v Speaker 1>would put Trump in real jeopardy, and it would put

0:20:04.640 --> 0:20:06.720
<v Speaker 1>a lot of his backers in jeopardy as well. It

0:20:06.800 --> 0:20:10.440
<v Speaker 1>might even force consequences for provocateurs like Basobic and even

0:20:10.440 --> 0:20:14.000
<v Speaker 1>Elon Musk. Backing an outright violent coup is almost the

0:20:14.000 --> 0:20:17.440
<v Speaker 1>only thing I can imagine putting Musk behind bars. There

0:20:17.480 --> 0:20:20.080
<v Speaker 1>are pieces of this logic train that I find comforting,

0:20:20.080 --> 0:20:22.800
<v Speaker 1>but there are also pieces that aren't. Many of us,

0:20:22.840 --> 0:20:26.080
<v Speaker 1>me included made the mistake of assuming that after January sixth,

0:20:26.160 --> 0:20:29.800
<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty one, Trumpism might finally be a spent force.

0:20:30.240 --> 0:20:33.159
<v Speaker 1>He'd gambled too much and he'd lost too big, But

0:20:33.200 --> 0:20:36.119
<v Speaker 1>despite the existential threat, he presented himself as being The

0:20:36.160 --> 0:20:39.720
<v Speaker 1>Democratic Party and the Merrick Garland Justice Department largely chose

0:20:39.760 --> 0:20:43.320
<v Speaker 1>mercy for the main players. I suspect anything short of

0:20:43.440 --> 0:20:46.520
<v Speaker 1>armed insurrection will see a similar reaction from them this year.

0:20:46.840 --> 0:20:49.360
<v Speaker 1>I don't believe Musk's fears that the Democrats will throw

0:20:49.400 --> 0:20:51.920
<v Speaker 1>him in prison if Harris wins are real, or read

0:20:51.960 --> 0:20:55.280
<v Speaker 1>that instead as his own predictive justification for the violence

0:20:55.320 --> 0:20:59.119
<v Speaker 1>he'd like to support against his political enemies. That desire

0:20:59.280 --> 0:21:02.159
<v Speaker 1>won't go away just because Trump rides off into the

0:21:02.200 --> 0:21:04.919
<v Speaker 1>sunset and the Republican Party has to go searching for

0:21:04.960 --> 0:21:08.119
<v Speaker 1>another feurer. If we defer their dream, it will simply

0:21:08.160 --> 0:21:11.720
<v Speaker 1>sit under the floorboards, infester, waiting for the next opportunity,

0:21:11.800 --> 0:21:15.400
<v Speaker 1>and that won't take long. Kamala will inherit a broken

0:21:15.520 --> 0:21:18.040
<v Speaker 1>system and a world where climate change and conflict are

0:21:18.080 --> 0:21:21.680
<v Speaker 1>on the rise. Low information voters, less literate by the day,

0:21:21.760 --> 0:21:24.720
<v Speaker 1>will continue to swing back and forth. The feral beast

0:21:24.800 --> 0:21:27.720
<v Speaker 1>we've heard growling all year long, will surge forward, all

0:21:27.760 --> 0:21:31.080
<v Speaker 1>the hungrier for being made to wait. If you've kept

0:21:31.119 --> 0:21:33.959
<v Speaker 1>up with our election coverage this year, you've probably noticed

0:21:33.960 --> 0:21:36.639
<v Speaker 1>that we haven't endorsed any candidates, and I haven't wasted

0:21:36.640 --> 0:21:39.639
<v Speaker 1>any time advising our listeners to vote. I happen to

0:21:39.640 --> 0:21:42.640
<v Speaker 1>be someone who does think a Harris win represents substantially

0:21:42.720 --> 0:21:45.359
<v Speaker 1>less harm than a Trump win to a lot of people.

0:21:45.520 --> 0:21:47.439
<v Speaker 1>But I don't think that the folks who listen to

0:21:47.480 --> 0:21:50.000
<v Speaker 1>our podcast are waiting for me to make that decision

0:21:50.119 --> 0:21:53.240
<v Speaker 1>for them. I don't agree with the anti electoralist side

0:21:53.240 --> 0:21:55.720
<v Speaker 1>of things on every matter, but one place where I

0:21:55.760 --> 0:21:58.320
<v Speaker 1>do agree with them is that a Harris win won't

0:21:58.359 --> 0:22:02.320
<v Speaker 1>fix what's broken. It represents the historic equivalent of jinking

0:22:02.359 --> 0:22:05.360
<v Speaker 1>out of the way in a dog fight. Necessary maybe,

0:22:05.480 --> 0:22:10.240
<v Speaker 1>but not something that guarantees future security. Hey, everybody, Robert here,

0:22:10.760 --> 0:22:13.240
<v Speaker 1>I've changed locations, so sorry if it sounds a little

0:22:13.240 --> 0:22:17.080
<v Speaker 1>bit different. I'm currently in a cabin waiting out the election,

0:22:17.440 --> 0:22:19.679
<v Speaker 1>trying not to think too much about it. But I

0:22:19.720 --> 0:22:22.320
<v Speaker 1>wrote a new ending to this because I just thought

0:22:22.320 --> 0:22:26.080
<v Speaker 1>that what I had there was incomplete. Now, when it

0:22:26.160 --> 0:22:29.320
<v Speaker 1>comes to what does work in the long run to

0:22:29.400 --> 0:22:33.000
<v Speaker 1>beat these people, my mind is drawn back constantly to

0:22:33.359 --> 0:22:37.320
<v Speaker 1>perhaps an odd place. A twenty eleven article in the

0:22:37.359 --> 0:22:42.400
<v Speaker 1>scientific journal Nature titled the Evolution of over Confidence. Now

0:22:42.400 --> 0:22:44.560
<v Speaker 1>The gist is that this was an attempt by two

0:22:44.600 --> 0:22:49.120
<v Speaker 1>scientists to solve the evolutionary mystery of the Dunning Krueger effect.

0:22:49.600 --> 0:22:52.280
<v Speaker 1>It seems to be extraordinarily common for people who know

0:22:52.520 --> 0:22:56.239
<v Speaker 1>very little about a subject to overestimate their competence in it.

0:22:56.920 --> 0:22:59.720
<v Speaker 1>This is probably why so many Americans think they could

0:22:59.720 --> 0:23:03.320
<v Speaker 1>win fist fight with a bear. Such a phenomenon seems

0:23:03.440 --> 0:23:08.240
<v Speaker 1>profoundly maladaptive. How could overestimating our abilities provide any kind

0:23:08.240 --> 0:23:12.320
<v Speaker 1>of benefit to evolutionary fitness? The explanation devised in this

0:23:12.359 --> 0:23:16.520
<v Speaker 1>paper is that overconfidence is beneficial more often than not, because,

0:23:16.560 --> 0:23:20.439
<v Speaker 1>in a hypothetical situation where two organisms are competing for

0:23:20.520 --> 0:23:23.520
<v Speaker 1>a resource and evenly matched in the event of a fight,

0:23:24.000 --> 0:23:27.160
<v Speaker 1>the organism that is more confident is likelier to reach

0:23:27.200 --> 0:23:30.520
<v Speaker 1>for that resource. If they do, one of three things

0:23:30.520 --> 0:23:33.679
<v Speaker 1>can happen. They fight and win, they fight and lose,

0:23:34.480 --> 0:23:38.400
<v Speaker 1>or the other organism backs away insecure in its chances

0:23:38.440 --> 0:23:41.720
<v Speaker 1>of victory, and they get that resource. Without even fighting

0:23:41.760 --> 0:23:46.320
<v Speaker 1>for it. Such a scenario favors the overconfident individual, so

0:23:46.440 --> 0:23:48.639
<v Speaker 1>much so that it might explain why many of us

0:23:48.680 --> 0:23:51.600
<v Speaker 1>seem to have a build in tendency to irrationally judge

0:23:51.600 --> 0:23:52.840
<v Speaker 1>our own capabilities.

0:23:53.560 --> 0:23:53.840
<v Speaker 2>Now.

0:23:54.000 --> 0:23:56.919
<v Speaker 1>I first became aware of this research almost a decade

0:23:56.960 --> 0:23:59.760
<v Speaker 1>ago when I started work on my first published book,

0:24:00.000 --> 0:24:03.040
<v Speaker 1>A Brief History of Vice. At the time, I found

0:24:03.040 --> 0:24:06.119
<v Speaker 1>it interesting because it posited a likely adaptive basis for

0:24:06.160 --> 0:24:08.720
<v Speaker 1>a kind of bad behavior, and that's what my whole

0:24:08.720 --> 0:24:11.400
<v Speaker 1>book was about. In the years since, though, I've come

0:24:11.400 --> 0:24:14.800
<v Speaker 1>to see it as the fundamental underlying explanation for how

0:24:14.880 --> 0:24:19.480
<v Speaker 1>fascists win. It's well established that fascist regimes and individuals

0:24:19.560 --> 0:24:22.560
<v Speaker 1>themselves are bad at threat modeling. We can bring up

0:24:22.560 --> 0:24:25.760
<v Speaker 1>examples as varied as the invasion of the Soviet Union,

0:24:25.880 --> 0:24:28.040
<v Speaker 1>or that proud boy who got shot in Portland after

0:24:28.119 --> 0:24:32.120
<v Speaker 1>picking the wrong fight, and of course January sixth. There

0:24:32.119 --> 0:24:34.920
<v Speaker 1>are many examples to choose from, but as often as

0:24:34.960 --> 0:24:38.240
<v Speaker 1>they fail. The success of these movements is also based

0:24:38.440 --> 0:24:41.720
<v Speaker 1>entirely on their willingness to dare, and the fact that

0:24:41.800 --> 0:24:45.119
<v Speaker 1>liberals in particular are often too frightened and cautious to

0:24:45.160 --> 0:24:48.679
<v Speaker 1>confront them. We are still dealing with Donald Trump and

0:24:48.680 --> 0:24:51.280
<v Speaker 1>his foot soldiers in twenty twenty four because no one

0:24:51.359 --> 0:24:53.679
<v Speaker 1>quite had the guts to confront him to the degree

0:24:53.720 --> 0:24:56.920
<v Speaker 1>he needed to be confronted. Doing so would have meant

0:24:57.000 --> 0:25:01.680
<v Speaker 1>taking unprecedented legal steps and risking wing backlash that likely

0:25:01.720 --> 0:25:05.400
<v Speaker 1>would have included acts of terrorism. In the end, most

0:25:05.440 --> 0:25:08.240
<v Speaker 1>people with any say in the matter chose to either

0:25:08.320 --> 0:25:11.679
<v Speaker 1>back away or at best pull their punches until after

0:25:11.760 --> 0:25:15.560
<v Speaker 1>the election. On other episodes of this show, our correspondent

0:25:15.640 --> 0:25:18.480
<v Speaker 1>Mia and I have talked about the actual path destroying

0:25:18.560 --> 0:25:22.280
<v Speaker 1>the far rights organizational and electoral base. We are up

0:25:22.280 --> 0:25:26.160
<v Speaker 1>against a coalition a fused car dealers, supplement salesman, multi

0:25:26.280 --> 0:25:30.520
<v Speaker 1>level marketing goals, sheriffs taking blatantly unconstitutional stances on their

0:25:30.560 --> 0:25:34.040
<v Speaker 1>own power, and churches that, by any decent measure lost

0:25:34.080 --> 0:25:38.159
<v Speaker 1>their justification for tax exempt status years ago. These are

0:25:38.200 --> 0:25:40.879
<v Speaker 1>all forces that can be targeted and neutered through the

0:25:40.920 --> 0:25:44.880
<v Speaker 1>courts in the legislative system, with consistent activism and pressure

0:25:44.920 --> 0:25:48.640
<v Speaker 1>applied to elected leaders Sitting here, I think that the

0:25:48.680 --> 0:25:52.880
<v Speaker 1>odds the Democrats embraced such a strategy are exceptionally low,

0:25:53.280 --> 0:25:56.440
<v Speaker 1>but we do have to try to make them, because

0:25:56.520 --> 0:25:59.280
<v Speaker 1>when you're sitting across from a monster, one that's fattened

0:25:59.320 --> 0:26:02.359
<v Speaker 1>on overcome confidence, and you see him start to reach again,

0:26:03.040 --> 0:26:06.320
<v Speaker 1>the only same response is to swallow your fear and

0:26:06.440 --> 0:26:07.000
<v Speaker 1>take a swing.

0:26:10.400 --> 0:26:12.879
<v Speaker 3>It Could Happen Here is a production of cool Zone Media.

0:26:13.080 --> 0:26:16.160
<v Speaker 3>For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website

0:26:16.200 --> 0:26:19.800
<v Speaker 3>coolzonmedia dot com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app,

0:26:19.880 --> 0:26:23.440
<v Speaker 3>Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. You can

0:26:23.480 --> 0:26:25.800
<v Speaker 3>now find sources for it could Happen Here, listed directly

0:26:25.840 --> 0:26:28.120
<v Speaker 3>in episode descriptions. Thanks for listening,