1 00:00:01,720 --> 00:00:06,880 Speaker 1: A zone media. You wake up before dawn. This was 2 00:00:06,920 --> 00:00:09,600 Speaker 1: once abnormal for you, but ever since the election, you 3 00:00:09,760 --> 00:00:12,920 Speaker 1: found it harder and harder to sleep. You just barely 4 00:00:13,000 --> 00:00:15,520 Speaker 1: drifted off when the sound of shouts wafted in from 5 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:19,320 Speaker 1: across the street. Reflected sirens bounce off your bedroom window. 6 00:00:20,040 --> 00:00:22,360 Speaker 1: Through a fog of sleep, you reflect on the last 7 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:26,480 Speaker 1: few days. Voting went better you'd feared. It's what happened 8 00:00:26,480 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 1: in the days after that's kept your spine at a 9 00:00:28,720 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 1: constant eerie tingle. Several Republican led states are refusing to 10 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:36,440 Speaker 1: certify their election results. Most analysts say the blizzard of 11 00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:39,760 Speaker 1: lawsuits launched on behalf of Trump have no chance at winning, 12 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:42,839 Speaker 1: But that didn't stop the candidate from declaring victory and 13 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:45,879 Speaker 1: promising to carry out his own inauguration no matter what 14 00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:50,240 Speaker 1: the courts decide. It's all absurd, laughable. But you live 15 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:53,080 Speaker 1: on the border of a majority red county and your 16 00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:56,400 Speaker 1: sheriffs just announced support for the real winner of the election. 17 00:00:56,920 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 1: Your local PD have been notably silent, while right wing 18 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:05,080 Speaker 1: provocateurs online have started circulating allegations of election fraud that 19 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:10,480 Speaker 1: the sheriff has promised to look into. That was yesterday, today, 20 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:13,640 Speaker 1: just after five, you're jolted awake in your bed by 21 00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:17,400 Speaker 1: the sound of breaking glass and screaming. You stay low 22 00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:20,040 Speaker 1: and crawl to your front window to peep out across 23 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:23,160 Speaker 1: your yard and into the street. Before you, three police 24 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:25,760 Speaker 1: cruisers are stacked up in front of your neighbor's house. 25 00:01:26,400 --> 00:01:29,399 Speaker 1: You can't imagine why. You know he did some volunteer 26 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:33,479 Speaker 1: canvassing a few weeks back. He volunteered at a voting precinct. 27 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 1: Could they be there because of that? You try a 28 00:01:36,280 --> 00:01:39,039 Speaker 1: few different search terms on social media to puzzle out 29 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:41,440 Speaker 1: the truth. It looks like a few people around the 30 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:44,640 Speaker 1: country are reporting similar raids, but most of the posts 31 00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 1: register is deleted before you can click on them. There's 32 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:50,760 Speaker 1: more shouting from inside your neighbor's house, and within seconds 33 00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:53,240 Speaker 1: a pair of birdly deputies drag him out in front 34 00:01:53,520 --> 00:01:57,240 Speaker 1: and into a waiting squad car. It's dark outside, but 35 00:01:57,320 --> 00:01:58,920 Speaker 1: you think you might see blood. 36 00:01:58,640 --> 00:01:59,240 Speaker 2: On his face. 37 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:02,160 Speaker 1: Your heart starts to pound. You feel the urge to 38 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:05,520 Speaker 1: call someone, but the cops are already here. Who else 39 00:02:05,600 --> 00:02:08,519 Speaker 1: is there? As your mind raises, one of the officers 40 00:02:08,560 --> 00:02:12,360 Speaker 1: stationed outside turns back and looks towards your window. Recognition 41 00:02:12,440 --> 00:02:15,320 Speaker 1: sparks his eyes, he sees you, He starts to walk 42 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:18,440 Speaker 1: over you, turn back, drop the shades, and with a 43 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:21,880 Speaker 1: pounding heart, retreat to your bedroom. Maybe he won't knock, 44 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:23,880 Speaker 1: Maybe he just wanted to scare you. 45 00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:35,799 Speaker 2: Maybe hello, everyone, hand welcome to It could happen here. 46 00:02:36,040 --> 00:02:39,600 Speaker 1: I'm Robert Evanson. Back in early twenty nineteen, I released 47 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:42,360 Speaker 1: the first season of this show. It wasn't a daily 48 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:45,960 Speaker 1: news and politics podcast back then. Instead, it gave a 49 00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:48,920 Speaker 1: focused argument for why a new US civil war was 50 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:52,640 Speaker 1: more frightening and possible than you might guess. Over the 51 00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:56,880 Speaker 1: last few years, that belief has become unfortunately mainstream. It 52 00:02:56,960 --> 00:02:59,400 Speaker 1: is no longer fringe or unique to talk about a 53 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:01,639 Speaker 1: new civil war or as a real possibility. There was 54 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 1: a blockbuster movie earlier this year based around presenting what 55 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:09,520 Speaker 1: it called a realistic picture of such a possibility. I'll 56 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:13,400 Speaker 1: leave my thoughts on that for another time. A Marist 57 00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:16,120 Speaker 1: poll from earlier this year showed that forty seven percent 58 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:19,960 Speaker 1: of Americans consider a second civil war likely or very likely. 59 00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:23,680 Speaker 1: This is a massive shift considering where things were when 60 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:27,600 Speaker 1: I wrote this podcast series in twenty nineteen. That number 61 00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:30,760 Speaker 1: includes an expected fifty three percent of Republicans, but also 62 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:34,480 Speaker 1: forty percent of Democrats and forty one percent of independence. 63 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 1: Depending on how you want to see it, I've either 64 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:40,280 Speaker 1: been vindicated as much as as possible for someone in 65 00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:43,160 Speaker 1: my line of work, or I've played an outsized role 66 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:47,920 Speaker 1: in creating a particularly dangerous eggregore in the collective unconsciousness 67 00:03:47,960 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 1: of our nation, effectively talking this possibility into being. I'm 68 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:56,680 Speaker 1: really not sure either way. My conscience has been troubled 69 00:03:56,720 --> 00:03:59,600 Speaker 1: on that matter ever since the first episode started coming out. 70 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:03,360 Speaker 1: Remember midway through the first season, we dropped an extra 71 00:04:03,400 --> 00:04:06,000 Speaker 1: episode I hadn't initially intended as part of the run, 72 00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:09,400 Speaker 1: just trying to stop people from panicking, and ever since 73 00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:13,600 Speaker 1: I've kept that as a particular goal in my head. However, 74 00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:15,960 Speaker 1: you want to, you know, think about this. The first 75 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:18,680 Speaker 1: season of It could happen here undoubtedly helped to make 76 00:04:18,760 --> 00:04:21,760 Speaker 1: my career today. Sophie and I run an entire network 77 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:25,120 Speaker 1: that employees several dozen people, largely on the strength of 78 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:28,720 Speaker 1: that series. And yet I have no issue telling you 79 00:04:28,800 --> 00:04:31,240 Speaker 1: that I don't have any idea how election Day is. 80 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:31,760 Speaker 2: Going to go. 81 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:34,599 Speaker 1: You know, we've had a lot of polls lately that 82 00:04:34,640 --> 00:04:37,360 Speaker 1: seem much better for Harris. A number of pollsters are 83 00:04:37,400 --> 00:04:40,400 Speaker 1: starting to shift. You know, there's a good chance that 84 00:04:40,440 --> 00:04:43,280 Speaker 1: they were hurting in the direction of Trump because they 85 00:04:43,360 --> 00:04:45,880 Speaker 1: didn't want to underestimate him again. But there's also a 86 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:49,279 Speaker 1: good chance that, you know, that Sealzer poll is an outlier, 87 00:04:49,320 --> 00:04:51,400 Speaker 1: and now these guys are hurting in the direction of 88 00:04:51,440 --> 00:04:55,240 Speaker 1: Harris winning because they don't want to be embarrassed. I 89 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:58,040 Speaker 1: really have no idea what's going to happen. My official 90 00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:01,080 Speaker 1: stance is that it's probably pretty close to a coin flip, 91 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:04,680 Speaker 1: although maybe one that favors Harris now you know, more 92 00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:08,640 Speaker 1: than one that favors Trump. Whatever happens, I don't know 93 00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:10,920 Speaker 1: what's going to happen, let alone what's going to happen 94 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:13,440 Speaker 1: the day after. And as I sat down to write 95 00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:15,440 Speaker 1: this episode, which is going to air on the day 96 00:05:15,440 --> 00:05:17,680 Speaker 1: of the election, I went back and forth as to 97 00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 1: where the focus should be. I did consider doing another 98 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:25,000 Speaker 1: Don't Panic style episode. Perhaps that would have been the call. 99 00:05:25,320 --> 00:05:27,960 Speaker 1: You know, depending on how today goes, people might either 100 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:33,039 Speaker 1: be listening to this and you know, relaxing, or listening 101 00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:35,479 Speaker 1: to this and in a heightened state of panic. You know, 102 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:38,320 Speaker 1: it really depends on where things are and where things 103 00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:40,799 Speaker 1: are and the counting of votes by this period of time. 104 00:05:41,320 --> 00:05:44,880 Speaker 1: My reasoning on what I decided to do is pretty simple, 105 00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:47,000 Speaker 1: which is that I think there's a good chance we 106 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:49,560 Speaker 1: either know or have a strong inkling of how this 107 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:51,800 Speaker 1: election is going to shake out by the time this 108 00:05:51,920 --> 00:05:54,479 Speaker 1: episode airs, and at the time I write this, the 109 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:57,360 Speaker 1: indicators do look better for Harris than for Trump, enough 110 00:05:57,360 --> 00:06:00,120 Speaker 1: that I'd say the election leans in her direction, and 111 00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:02,880 Speaker 1: so I think there's a lot of value in talking 112 00:06:02,920 --> 00:06:06,680 Speaker 1: about what might happen in the aftermath of that. If 113 00:06:06,720 --> 00:06:10,760 Speaker 1: Trump tries to protest the election results, and if he 114 00:06:10,880 --> 00:06:13,920 Speaker 1: goes particularly trying to protest by force, and if that's 115 00:06:13,960 --> 00:06:16,839 Speaker 1: the case, if that's the direction he lands in, I 116 00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:19,480 Speaker 1: think these shooters that we have to worry about. And 117 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:21,839 Speaker 1: I mean that in the figurative sense, right, you know, 118 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 1: people who support him, will who will put skin in 119 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:27,360 Speaker 1: the game in order to try to force him into office. 120 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:30,080 Speaker 1: I think they're different than they were last time. I 121 00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:32,160 Speaker 1: don't think the threat here is that a bunch of 122 00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:35,800 Speaker 1: proud boys and the like raid the capital next January. 123 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:38,080 Speaker 1: I think the threat here has a lot more to 124 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 1: do with licensed law enforcement officers who have already declared 125 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:45,120 Speaker 1: themselves in the tank for Trump. We ran an episode 126 00:06:45,160 --> 00:06:48,800 Speaker 1: just the other day about the Constitutional Sheriff's movement. There's 127 00:06:48,839 --> 00:06:51,840 Speaker 1: a lot to say about that. One in four law 128 00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:54,960 Speaker 1: enforcement officers today report to a sheriff. They make twenty 129 00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:58,000 Speaker 1: percent of all arrests in the country. Earlier this year, 130 00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:01,200 Speaker 1: Wired published an article on the are right sheriff's ready 131 00:07:01,200 --> 00:07:04,679 Speaker 1: to disrupt the election? It focused heavily on dar Leif, 132 00:07:04,960 --> 00:07:07,480 Speaker 1: who sits on the board of the Constitutional Sheriffs and 133 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:13,560 Speaker 1: Peace Officers Association or CSPOA. Leif, a Trump supporter and 134 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:16,520 Speaker 1: sheriff in Berry County, Michigan, has spent the lead up 135 00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 1: to this election investigating the twenty twenty election. He's tried 136 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 1: to seize voting machines and run militia training courses where 137 00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:27,240 Speaker 1: he offers to teach potential jurors, homeschoolers, ladies, and gentlemen 138 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:30,400 Speaker 1: how to form an ad hoc posse, each member armed 139 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:33,720 Speaker 1: with quote a standard Air fifteen type military grade weapon 140 00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:38,080 Speaker 1: and at least five hundred rounds of AMMO. Speaking of 141 00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:40,720 Speaker 1: five hundred rounds of AMMO, he probably can't buy that 142 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:54,400 Speaker 1: from our sponsors, but here they are. We're back and 143 00:07:54,440 --> 00:07:57,920 Speaker 1: we're talking about a constitutional sheriff who sits on the 144 00:07:57,960 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 1: board of that organization named dar Leaf. Leif has already 145 00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:06,080 Speaker 1: promised to have his posse patrolling stations in Barry County 146 00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:08,920 Speaker 1: to watch for evidence of fraud and the legal immigrant 147 00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:11,000 Speaker 1: voting in what's expected to be one of the swing 148 00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:14,800 Speaker 1: states this election might hinge on. Deeply reported articles like 149 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 1: that Wired piece have warred in my own personal paranoia 150 00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 1: with troubling accounts on social media. The day before the election, 151 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:23,800 Speaker 1: which is when I wrote this, I came across a 152 00:08:23,840 --> 00:08:26,840 Speaker 1: post on the Pennsylvania subreddit from a Philly voter titled 153 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 1: my dad just got harassed by a police officer about 154 00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 1: the election. 155 00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:31,080 Speaker 2: Quote. 156 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:33,320 Speaker 1: He was driving down the Old Lincoln Highway when a 157 00:08:33,360 --> 00:08:36,680 Speaker 1: trooper stopped him and asked him if he was voting tomorrow. Trooper, 158 00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:40,480 Speaker 1: Will you be voting tomorrow, dad? That's none of your business, trooper. 159 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:42,280 Speaker 1: Who are you voting for tomorrow? 160 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:42,880 Speaker 2: Dad? 161 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:43,960 Speaker 1: None of your business? 162 00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:44,480 Speaker 2: Trooper. 163 00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:48,800 Speaker 1: Oh sir, you're illegal now. The poster's dad, who is Hispanic, 164 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:51,439 Speaker 1: stated that he didn't have to answer that and asked 165 00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:54,439 Speaker 1: if he was being detained. The trooper let him go, 166 00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:58,280 Speaker 1: but later, according to the poster. This happened when my 167 00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:00,960 Speaker 1: dad went to the precinct three other people there to 168 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:04,560 Speaker 1: report the exact same story election harassment at a traffic stop. 169 00:09:04,840 --> 00:09:07,280 Speaker 1: Turns out the officer or officers doing it art even 170 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:10,800 Speaker 1: from Bucks County or Pennsylvania. Their new Jersey State troopers 171 00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:14,560 Speaker 1: wild across state borders to harass people driving down the highway. 172 00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:17,880 Speaker 1: In the lead up to the twenty twenty election, we 173 00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:20,679 Speaker 1: were all deeply worried about the dangers of different far 174 00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:24,200 Speaker 1: right groups, militias and organizations like the Proud Boys who 175 00:09:24,280 --> 00:09:27,160 Speaker 1: wore right wing death squad patches and threatened to throw 176 00:09:27,240 --> 00:09:32,000 Speaker 1: leftists out of helicopters when their god Emperor won reelection. Today, 177 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:34,920 Speaker 1: most of those figures are either a spent force or 178 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:38,840 Speaker 1: something that cannot act on its own, reliant upon the 179 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 1: backing of groups like the aforementioned constitutional sheriffs, or being 180 00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:45,400 Speaker 1: empowered by a Trump controlled White House if they want 181 00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:49,040 Speaker 1: to have any hope of being directly relevant. Again, the 182 00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:51,200 Speaker 1: positive side of this is that it allows us to 183 00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:56,080 Speaker 1: triage our fears. The downside is that independent paramilitary actors 184 00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:59,719 Speaker 1: are in fact something we can easily combat as individuals 185 00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:03,200 Speaker 1: and ins communities. Portland proved that when it eventually won 186 00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:06,079 Speaker 1: its five year street battle to oust these sundry right 187 00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:09,840 Speaker 1: wing groups from constant occupations of the city. When groups 188 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:12,560 Speaker 1: like the Proud Boys crossed the line into outright violence, 189 00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:15,960 Speaker 1: it is legal to meet them with defensive violence, and 190 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:19,720 Speaker 1: they can and have been beaten this way. That's simply 191 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:23,720 Speaker 1: not something the extant left wing community defense organizations and 192 00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:27,440 Speaker 1: political groups in this country can say and do against, 193 00:10:27,600 --> 00:10:31,240 Speaker 1: For example, law enforcement entities hell bent on executing a 194 00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:34,640 Speaker 1: purge against the left. In rallies prior to the election, 195 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:38,559 Speaker 1: Trump has often merged promises to prosecute his political opponents 196 00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:41,840 Speaker 1: US with promises to use ice to deport twenty million 197 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:45,360 Speaker 1: illegals and descend in the military or federal law enforcement 198 00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:48,120 Speaker 1: to clean up cities. I want to quote now from 199 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:50,600 Speaker 1: an article in The New Republic reporting on a rally 200 00:10:50,640 --> 00:10:54,160 Speaker 1: earlier this year in Wilmington, North Carolina. Today, I am 201 00:10:54,200 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 1: announcing a new plan to end all sanctuary cities in 202 00:10:57,000 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 1: North Carolina and across our country, said Trump, no more 203 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:02,880 Speaker 1: or sanctuary cities. As soon as I take office, we 204 00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:05,720 Speaker 1: will immediately surge federal law enforcement to every city that 205 00:11:05,840 --> 00:11:08,200 Speaker 1: is failing, which is a lot of them to turn 206 00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:10,520 Speaker 1: over criminal aliens, and we will hunt down and capture 207 00:11:10,559 --> 00:11:13,559 Speaker 1: every single gang member, drug dealer, rapist, murderer, and migrant 208 00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:16,680 Speaker 1: criminal that is being illegally harbored. The article goes on 209 00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:19,960 Speaker 1: to note Trump has previously vowed to militarize US law 210 00:11:20,040 --> 00:11:22,800 Speaker 1: enforcement to restore law and order to our cities, which 211 00:11:22,800 --> 00:11:25,400 Speaker 1: he claimed to have become cesspools of bloodshed and crime 212 00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:28,960 Speaker 1: under President Joe Biden. Trump has argued that additional federal 213 00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:32,719 Speaker 1: funding and forces would help supplement supposedly defunded police departments, 214 00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:34,960 Speaker 1: but that extra help would only go to cities that 215 00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:38,800 Speaker 1: complied with ICE. Now, this is scary stuff and it 216 00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:42,080 Speaker 1: would necessitate some sort of response if it were to happen. 217 00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 1: But I don't really know how to tell you to 218 00:11:44,120 --> 00:11:47,719 Speaker 1: organize against it right now. There are so many unknowns 219 00:11:47,760 --> 00:11:50,720 Speaker 1: that one would need to factor into any plans. I 220 00:11:50,760 --> 00:11:54,480 Speaker 1: could theorize about underground railroads to help people avoid deportation 221 00:11:54,960 --> 00:11:57,839 Speaker 1: or to avoid being raided for their past political activism, 222 00:11:58,120 --> 00:12:00,559 Speaker 1: and I could base those theories on, for exampample, how 223 00:12:00,600 --> 00:12:03,719 Speaker 1: activists in Nazi Germany helped tide people from the Gestapo. 224 00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:07,160 Speaker 1: But those heroes of yesteryear existed in a world where 225 00:12:07,160 --> 00:12:10,760 Speaker 1: the technological tools available to the enemy were primitive beyond 226 00:12:10,760 --> 00:12:14,880 Speaker 1: compare to what exists today. Perhaps the most chilling article 227 00:12:14,920 --> 00:12:16,880 Speaker 1: I read this year had nothing to do with ice 228 00:12:17,000 --> 00:12:19,360 Speaker 1: or right wing paramilitaries and everything to do with the 229 00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:22,800 Speaker 1: technology that has been standard among law enforcement for years. 230 00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:27,760 Speaker 1: License plate recognition systems like motorolas dr in use optical 231 00:12:27,840 --> 00:12:31,360 Speaker 1: character recognition technology to identify the text of a vehicle's 232 00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:34,440 Speaker 1: license plate and put it in a searchable database. The 233 00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:38,360 Speaker 1: policing implications of this are obvious and not all negative, 234 00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:41,000 Speaker 1: although it's far from clear if they actually work too. 235 00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:43,440 Speaker 1: The idea is that if someone carries out a drive 236 00:12:43,480 --> 00:12:45,599 Speaker 1: by shooting, or assaults a woman on the street, or 237 00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:48,640 Speaker 1: is seen fleeing some other form of dangerous crime by 238 00:12:48,640 --> 00:12:50,880 Speaker 1: someone who gets the car, make and model and maybe 239 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:53,640 Speaker 1: the first couple letters of the plate. Dn r's database 240 00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:57,079 Speaker 1: of more than fifteen billion vehicle sidings, built from automatic 241 00:12:57,120 --> 00:13:00,120 Speaker 1: recordings of license plate reading cameras on police cruisers and 242 00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:03,200 Speaker 1: tow trucks and the like, might well help identify and 243 00:13:03,280 --> 00:13:06,520 Speaker 1: stop someone before they hunter kill again. Now their serious 244 00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:10,240 Speaker 1: reason to question whether or not this system actually works 245 00:13:10,280 --> 00:13:12,520 Speaker 1: this way. I'm not claiming to take the stance on 246 00:13:12,559 --> 00:13:14,760 Speaker 1: this one way or the other. I'm not an expert 247 00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:17,600 Speaker 1: on this, but the issue here from a privacy standpoint, 248 00:13:17,640 --> 00:13:21,320 Speaker 1: when we imagine what might happen in a future Trump 249 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:25,160 Speaker 1: dominated government, is that you can't train a system like 250 00:13:25,240 --> 00:13:28,559 Speaker 1: this to only pay attention to license plates, nor is 251 00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:31,520 Speaker 1: there any benefit to Motorola in doing so. In recent 252 00:13:31,600 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 1: investigations conducted by a private detective with access to dn 253 00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:37,760 Speaker 1: r's database for her work have shown that someone with 254 00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:40,760 Speaker 1: access to this database can search based on more than 255 00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:44,400 Speaker 1: just license plates. They can look up signs supporting political 256 00:13:44,440 --> 00:13:46,920 Speaker 1: candidates and match them to front yards and thus to 257 00:13:47,040 --> 00:13:50,920 Speaker 1: people's addresses. They can find individuals who were captured by 258 00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:53,320 Speaker 1: these cameras, and there are again billions of these photos wearing, 259 00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:57,600 Speaker 1: for example, planned parenthood shirts. This is not an idle fear. 260 00:13:57,720 --> 00:14:00,920 Speaker 1: This is a weapon that could very easily be used 261 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:03,840 Speaker 1: by the enemy within months of you listening to this. 262 00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:06,200 Speaker 1: This is also a weapon that, in an event like 263 00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:08,640 Speaker 1: the one I forecasted at the start of this episode, 264 00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:12,800 Speaker 1: could be used to crack down on activists and voters 265 00:14:12,840 --> 00:14:15,520 Speaker 1: in counties that are loyal to Trump in some sort 266 00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:20,640 Speaker 1: of national schism. Situation. Police officers already misused databases like 267 00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:24,000 Speaker 1: this with comic regularity. In twenty twenty two, a different 268 00:14:24,040 --> 00:14:27,800 Speaker 1: Wired investigation showed that hundreds of ICE employees and contractors 269 00:14:27,840 --> 00:14:31,680 Speaker 1: had been caught abusing similar databases made via license plate 270 00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:36,000 Speaker 1: recognition systems. Some had used them to stalk citizens. Stuff 271 00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:39,360 Speaker 1: like this pairs forebodingly with threats made by emboldened pro 272 00:14:39,440 --> 00:14:43,240 Speaker 1: Trump cops earlier this election season. I'm talking about something 273 00:14:43,280 --> 00:14:46,320 Speaker 1: that happened in September, when Ohio Sheriff of Portage County 274 00:14:46,360 --> 00:14:49,880 Speaker 1: Bruce Sukowski posted a screenshot of a Fox News segment 275 00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:53,400 Speaker 1: criticizing the current president over his immigration record and the 276 00:14:53,440 --> 00:14:57,520 Speaker 1: impact of Haitian migrants on Springfield, Ohio, from an article 277 00:14:57,520 --> 00:15:01,120 Speaker 1: in The ap by Michael Rubicam likening people in the 278 00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:04,640 Speaker 1: US illegally to human locusts, Zukowski wrote on a personal 279 00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:07,560 Speaker 1: Facebook account and his campaign's account, when people ask me, 280 00:15:07,640 --> 00:15:10,560 Speaker 1: what's going to happen if the flip flopping, laughing hyena wins, 281 00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:13,200 Speaker 1: I say write down all the addresses of the people 282 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:16,920 Speaker 1: who had their signs in their yards that way, Zukowski continued. 283 00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:19,600 Speaker 1: When migrants need places to live, we're already have the 284 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:23,640 Speaker 1: addresses of their new families who supported their arrival. Now, 285 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:26,800 Speaker 1: as the full context of that statement makes clear, Zukowski 286 00:15:26,880 --> 00:15:29,760 Speaker 1: was not technically threatening Harris voters. But it's pretty much 287 00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:32,200 Speaker 1: impossible for me to take that as anything but a threat, 288 00:15:32,400 --> 00:15:35,560 Speaker 1: just one dressed up enough for plausible deniability and an 289 00:15:35,640 --> 00:15:38,600 Speaker 1: environment where the future ability of Zukowski and those like 290 00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:42,320 Speaker 1: him to punish Democrats is still unclear. And we're going 291 00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:45,840 Speaker 1: to talk more about that, but first here's another ad break. 292 00:15:56,640 --> 00:15:56,880 Speaker 2: Now. 293 00:15:57,080 --> 00:15:59,440 Speaker 1: I don't mean to make it sound like that there's 294 00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:02,400 Speaker 1: nothing that can be done to fight against technological tools 295 00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:05,360 Speaker 1: in the arsenal of repression like this, but I have 296 00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:07,800 Speaker 1: no doubt that if the Republicans do take total power, 297 00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:10,160 Speaker 1: they will read any positive election result for them as 298 00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:12,440 Speaker 1: a mandate to punish the left and purge the people. 299 00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:15,640 Speaker 1: Trump is already repeatedly called the enemy within, and I 300 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 1: worry that in the event of any sort of national schism, 301 00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:20,840 Speaker 1: either where there's an extended period of time where Trump 302 00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:23,280 Speaker 1: is claiming to have been the winner, or if there's 303 00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:26,640 Speaker 1: a situation where he just has himself inaugurated in Florida 304 00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:29,240 Speaker 1: and you have a bunch of these counties and states 305 00:16:29,280 --> 00:16:31,920 Speaker 1: around the country sign up for Trump, that the first 306 00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:34,240 Speaker 1: thing we'll see law enforcement do in these areas is 307 00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:37,360 Speaker 1: punished the enemy within, especially if they declare themselves on 308 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:39,800 Speaker 1: a war footing with the rest of the country. These 309 00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:43,600 Speaker 1: are all things that are maybe not the likeliest possibility here, 310 00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:45,840 Speaker 1: but they are something to keep in mind, and they 311 00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:48,920 Speaker 1: are something that represents a real danger at this point. 312 00:16:48,960 --> 00:16:51,040 Speaker 1: I don't think anyone who's paid attention to the kinds 313 00:16:51,040 --> 00:16:54,000 Speaker 1: of thing the Republicans have been saying lately can deny that. 314 00:16:54,720 --> 00:16:57,640 Speaker 1: Now it is important to remember that whatever plan these 315 00:16:57,680 --> 00:17:01,080 Speaker 1: people try won't work as as well as they hope. 316 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:03,320 Speaker 1: We've been watching them for years, and if there's one 317 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:05,240 Speaker 1: thing you know about all of the people around Trump, 318 00:17:05,280 --> 00:17:07,600 Speaker 1: it's that they're fuck ups. That doesn't mean they can't win, 319 00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:10,480 Speaker 1: it doesn't mean they're not dangerous. It just means that 320 00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:13,439 Speaker 1: they're going to make mistakes. Now, those mistakes aren't going 321 00:17:13,480 --> 00:17:15,880 Speaker 1: to be survivable for everybody that we care about, which 322 00:17:15,920 --> 00:17:19,040 Speaker 1: is something that should be on your mind. Bruce and 323 00:17:19,119 --> 00:17:21,840 Speaker 1: most of the Trump aligned police, local and federals still 324 00:17:21,840 --> 00:17:24,680 Speaker 1: feel a need to couch their threats in deniable terms, though, 325 00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:27,360 Speaker 1: but many on the far right have been less careful, 326 00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:29,920 Speaker 1: and one thing we've seen is this election has lurched 327 00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:33,639 Speaker 1: closer to its conclusion. Is a lot of people, people 328 00:17:33,760 --> 00:17:38,240 Speaker 1: like particularly Elon Musk, have absolutely taken their masks off. Now. 329 00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:39,720 Speaker 1: I think this had a lot to do with the 330 00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:42,280 Speaker 1: fact that Trump was looking more like the favorite a 331 00:17:42,280 --> 00:17:45,359 Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago, and they felt like after years 332 00:17:45,400 --> 00:17:48,120 Speaker 1: of having to do what Bruce did, having to cover 333 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:51,959 Speaker 1: up their outright eliminationist impulses, they no longer had to 334 00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:55,400 Speaker 1: do that now. Obviously, some influential people on the far 335 00:17:55,520 --> 00:17:57,760 Speaker 1: right have been mask off from much longer, and this 336 00:17:57,840 --> 00:18:00,159 Speaker 1: is something that should concern you as well. One of 337 00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:02,919 Speaker 1: the most sinister examples of this is Jack Pisobic, a 338 00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:07,439 Speaker 1: former US Navy intelligence officer whose recent book Unhumans is 339 00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:10,760 Speaker 1: framed as a secret history of communist revolutions. From an 340 00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:14,240 Speaker 1: article in Mother Jones quote they being Pisobic and his 341 00:18:14,320 --> 00:18:16,479 Speaker 1: co author, claim, for as long as there have been 342 00:18:16,520 --> 00:18:18,560 Speaker 1: beauty and truth, love and life, there have also been 343 00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:21,439 Speaker 1: the ugly liars who hate and kill, and these people 344 00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:26,520 Speaker 1: of anti civilization have always gone by different names communists, socialists, leftists, 345 00:18:26,520 --> 00:18:29,160 Speaker 1: and progressives. The pair contend that these folks be they 346 00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:32,280 Speaker 1: the Bolsheviks of Russia or the BLM activists of this decade, 347 00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:36,159 Speaker 1: are better called unhumans. It's a hard edged message. The 348 00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:39,119 Speaker 1: foes of conservatism are not merely misguided souls pushing the 349 00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:42,760 Speaker 1: wrong policies, but people who seek to annihilate civilization. They 350 00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:45,880 Speaker 1: rob and kill. Pisobic and Lysek, his co author, maintain 351 00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:48,000 Speaker 1: they don't believe what they say. They don't care about 352 00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:50,359 Speaker 1: winning debates. They don't even want a quality. They just 353 00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:53,440 Speaker 1: want an excuse to destroy everything. They want an excuse 354 00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:57,200 Speaker 1: to destroy you. Now, Jack has been a laughable character 355 00:18:57,240 --> 00:18:59,840 Speaker 1: for much of his career, but his outright eliminationist rhetoric 356 00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:02,520 Speaker 1: has had an audience in the howls of power. Jd 357 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:05,239 Speaker 1: Vance himself provided a blurb for the book, claiming it 358 00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:08,439 Speaker 1: shows us what to do to fight back. Steve Bannon 359 00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:12,119 Speaker 1: meanwhile wrote the forward. Now, I started this episode with 360 00:19:12,119 --> 00:19:15,119 Speaker 1: a fictional vignette imagining what might happen if Trump chooses 361 00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:17,680 Speaker 1: to contest the election without right force, and he might. 362 00:19:18,280 --> 00:19:20,119 Speaker 1: The good news is I think that such an effort 363 00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:22,359 Speaker 1: would be doomed to fail if he sticks to the 364 00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:25,280 Speaker 1: courts trying to refuse certifications and kick the election to 365 00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:28,320 Speaker 1: the House is a better chance at succeeding, and it 366 00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:31,320 Speaker 1: is possible that isolated thefts of ballots and arrests of 367 00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:34,119 Speaker 1: poll workers could play into a broader effort like this, 368 00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:37,480 Speaker 1: but doing so is a big risk. My gut tells 369 00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:40,879 Speaker 1: me that moving so openly resorting to violence first creates 370 00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:43,800 Speaker 1: a situation in which the Biden administration and the incoming 371 00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:46,920 Speaker 1: Harris administration would have to respond with force. There would 372 00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:49,960 Speaker 1: have to be consequences, and given that they currently control 373 00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:52,320 Speaker 1: the arsenal of state power, I think they would win 374 00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:54,480 Speaker 1: even in the event that you have all of these 375 00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:58,200 Speaker 1: sheriffs break for Trump in some sort of insurgent situation develop. 376 00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:02,120 Speaker 1: If that were to happen, and having backed this insurgency 377 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:04,600 Speaker 1: would put Trump in real jeopardy, and it would put 378 00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:06,720 Speaker 1: a lot of his backers in jeopardy as well. It 379 00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:10,440 Speaker 1: might even force consequences for provocateurs like Basobic and even 380 00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:14,000 Speaker 1: Elon Musk. Backing an outright violent coup is almost the 381 00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:17,440 Speaker 1: only thing I can imagine putting Musk behind bars. There 382 00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:20,080 Speaker 1: are pieces of this logic train that I find comforting, 383 00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:22,800 Speaker 1: but there are also pieces that aren't. Many of us, 384 00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:26,080 Speaker 1: me included made the mistake of assuming that after January sixth, 385 00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:29,800 Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, Trumpism might finally be a spent force. 386 00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:33,159 Speaker 1: He'd gambled too much and he'd lost too big, But 387 00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:36,119 Speaker 1: despite the existential threat, he presented himself as being The 388 00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:39,720 Speaker 1: Democratic Party and the Merrick Garland Justice Department largely chose 389 00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:43,320 Speaker 1: mercy for the main players. I suspect anything short of 390 00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:46,520 Speaker 1: armed insurrection will see a similar reaction from them this year. 391 00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:49,360 Speaker 1: I don't believe Musk's fears that the Democrats will throw 392 00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:51,920 Speaker 1: him in prison if Harris wins are real, or read 393 00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:55,280 Speaker 1: that instead as his own predictive justification for the violence 394 00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:59,119 Speaker 1: he'd like to support against his political enemies. That desire 395 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:02,159 Speaker 1: won't go away just because Trump rides off into the 396 00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:04,919 Speaker 1: sunset and the Republican Party has to go searching for 397 00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:08,119 Speaker 1: another feurer. If we defer their dream, it will simply 398 00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:11,720 Speaker 1: sit under the floorboards, infester, waiting for the next opportunity, 399 00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:15,400 Speaker 1: and that won't take long. Kamala will inherit a broken 400 00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 1: system and a world where climate change and conflict are 401 00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:21,680 Speaker 1: on the rise. Low information voters, less literate by the day, 402 00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:24,720 Speaker 1: will continue to swing back and forth. The feral beast 403 00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:27,720 Speaker 1: we've heard growling all year long, will surge forward, all 404 00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:31,080 Speaker 1: the hungrier for being made to wait. If you've kept 405 00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:33,959 Speaker 1: up with our election coverage this year, you've probably noticed 406 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:36,639 Speaker 1: that we haven't endorsed any candidates, and I haven't wasted 407 00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:39,639 Speaker 1: any time advising our listeners to vote. I happen to 408 00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:42,640 Speaker 1: be someone who does think a Harris win represents substantially 409 00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:45,359 Speaker 1: less harm than a Trump win to a lot of people. 410 00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:47,439 Speaker 1: But I don't think that the folks who listen to 411 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:50,000 Speaker 1: our podcast are waiting for me to make that decision 412 00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:53,240 Speaker 1: for them. I don't agree with the anti electoralist side 413 00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:55,720 Speaker 1: of things on every matter, but one place where I 414 00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:58,320 Speaker 1: do agree with them is that a Harris win won't 415 00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:02,320 Speaker 1: fix what's broken. It represents the historic equivalent of jinking 416 00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:05,360 Speaker 1: out of the way in a dog fight. Necessary maybe, 417 00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:10,240 Speaker 1: but not something that guarantees future security. Hey, everybody, Robert here, 418 00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:13,240 Speaker 1: I've changed locations, so sorry if it sounds a little 419 00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:17,080 Speaker 1: bit different. I'm currently in a cabin waiting out the election, 420 00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:19,679 Speaker 1: trying not to think too much about it. But I 421 00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:22,320 Speaker 1: wrote a new ending to this because I just thought 422 00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:26,080 Speaker 1: that what I had there was incomplete. Now, when it 423 00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:29,320 Speaker 1: comes to what does work in the long run to 424 00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:33,000 Speaker 1: beat these people, my mind is drawn back constantly to 425 00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:37,320 Speaker 1: perhaps an odd place. A twenty eleven article in the 426 00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:42,400 Speaker 1: scientific journal Nature titled the Evolution of over Confidence. Now 427 00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:44,560 Speaker 1: The gist is that this was an attempt by two 428 00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:49,120 Speaker 1: scientists to solve the evolutionary mystery of the Dunning Krueger effect. 429 00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:52,280 Speaker 1: It seems to be extraordinarily common for people who know 430 00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:56,239 Speaker 1: very little about a subject to overestimate their competence in it. 431 00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:59,720 Speaker 1: This is probably why so many Americans think they could 432 00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:03,320 Speaker 1: win fist fight with a bear. Such a phenomenon seems 433 00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:08,240 Speaker 1: profoundly maladaptive. How could overestimating our abilities provide any kind 434 00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:12,320 Speaker 1: of benefit to evolutionary fitness? The explanation devised in this 435 00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:16,520 Speaker 1: paper is that overconfidence is beneficial more often than not, because, 436 00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:20,439 Speaker 1: in a hypothetical situation where two organisms are competing for 437 00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:23,520 Speaker 1: a resource and evenly matched in the event of a fight, 438 00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:27,160 Speaker 1: the organism that is more confident is likelier to reach 439 00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:30,520 Speaker 1: for that resource. If they do, one of three things 440 00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:33,679 Speaker 1: can happen. They fight and win, they fight and lose, 441 00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:38,400 Speaker 1: or the other organism backs away insecure in its chances 442 00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:41,720 Speaker 1: of victory, and they get that resource. Without even fighting 443 00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:46,320 Speaker 1: for it. Such a scenario favors the overconfident individual, so 444 00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:48,639 Speaker 1: much so that it might explain why many of us 445 00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:51,600 Speaker 1: seem to have a build in tendency to irrationally judge 446 00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:52,840 Speaker 1: our own capabilities. 447 00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:53,840 Speaker 2: Now. 448 00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:56,919 Speaker 1: I first became aware of this research almost a decade 449 00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:59,760 Speaker 1: ago when I started work on my first published book, 450 00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:03,040 Speaker 1: A Brief History of Vice. At the time, I found 451 00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:06,119 Speaker 1: it interesting because it posited a likely adaptive basis for 452 00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:08,720 Speaker 1: a kind of bad behavior, and that's what my whole 453 00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:11,400 Speaker 1: book was about. In the years since, though, I've come 454 00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:14,800 Speaker 1: to see it as the fundamental underlying explanation for how 455 00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:19,480 Speaker 1: fascists win. It's well established that fascist regimes and individuals 456 00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:22,560 Speaker 1: themselves are bad at threat modeling. We can bring up 457 00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:25,760 Speaker 1: examples as varied as the invasion of the Soviet Union, 458 00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:28,040 Speaker 1: or that proud boy who got shot in Portland after 459 00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:32,120 Speaker 1: picking the wrong fight, and of course January sixth. There 460 00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:34,920 Speaker 1: are many examples to choose from, but as often as 461 00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:38,240 Speaker 1: they fail. The success of these movements is also based 462 00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:41,720 Speaker 1: entirely on their willingness to dare, and the fact that 463 00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:45,119 Speaker 1: liberals in particular are often too frightened and cautious to 464 00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:48,679 Speaker 1: confront them. We are still dealing with Donald Trump and 465 00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:51,280 Speaker 1: his foot soldiers in twenty twenty four because no one 466 00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:53,679 Speaker 1: quite had the guts to confront him to the degree 467 00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:56,920 Speaker 1: he needed to be confronted. Doing so would have meant 468 00:24:57,000 --> 00:25:01,680 Speaker 1: taking unprecedented legal steps and risking wing backlash that likely 469 00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:05,400 Speaker 1: would have included acts of terrorism. In the end, most 470 00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:08,240 Speaker 1: people with any say in the matter chose to either 471 00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:11,679 Speaker 1: back away or at best pull their punches until after 472 00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:15,560 Speaker 1: the election. On other episodes of this show, our correspondent 473 00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:18,480 Speaker 1: Mia and I have talked about the actual path destroying 474 00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:22,280 Speaker 1: the far rights organizational and electoral base. We are up 475 00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:26,160 Speaker 1: against a coalition a fused car dealers, supplement salesman, multi 476 00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:30,520 Speaker 1: level marketing goals, sheriffs taking blatantly unconstitutional stances on their 477 00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:34,040 Speaker 1: own power, and churches that, by any decent measure lost 478 00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:38,159 Speaker 1: their justification for tax exempt status years ago. These are 479 00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:40,879 Speaker 1: all forces that can be targeted and neutered through the 480 00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:44,880 Speaker 1: courts in the legislative system, with consistent activism and pressure 481 00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:48,640 Speaker 1: applied to elected leaders Sitting here, I think that the 482 00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:52,880 Speaker 1: odds the Democrats embraced such a strategy are exceptionally low, 483 00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:56,440 Speaker 1: but we do have to try to make them, because 484 00:25:56,520 --> 00:25:59,280 Speaker 1: when you're sitting across from a monster, one that's fattened 485 00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:02,359 Speaker 1: on overcome confidence, and you see him start to reach again, 486 00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:06,320 Speaker 1: the only same response is to swallow your fear and 487 00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:07,000 Speaker 1: take a swing. 488 00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:12,879 Speaker 3: It Could Happen Here is a production of cool Zone Media. 489 00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:16,160 Speaker 3: For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website 490 00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:19,800 Speaker 3: coolzonmedia dot com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, 491 00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:23,440 Speaker 3: Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. You can 492 00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:25,800 Speaker 3: now find sources for it could Happen Here, listed directly 493 00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:28,120 Speaker 3: in episode descriptions. Thanks for listening,