Speaker 1: Hello, everybody, Welcome into the cycle. I am Ryan warmly joined.
Speaker 1: I would say as always, but it's been actually a
Speaker 1: minute since we've done a show together, but joined today
Speaker 1: certainly and always going forward by Mike maher mayor how
Speaker 1: you doing, Buddy.
Speaker 2: I'm doing all right. It's great to have you back.
Speaker 2: We haven't done a show this offseason or really since,
Speaker 2: like I want to say, July, since you like kind
Speaker 2: of abandoned me for football. Yeah, I'm doing that right,
Speaker 2: and you know, happy to do the show. Happy to
Speaker 2: get the dynamic duo, the Gruesome twosome back together.
Speaker 1: Hopefully people who hear you calls the Gruesome twosom have
Speaker 1: seen it's always sunny in Philadelphia and understand the reference. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I believe this is my first time doing the cycle
Speaker 1: on video, which is very exciting that we're doing that
Speaker 1: this year. Obviously, I was not here last week because,
Speaker 1: as you pointed out to everybody violating HIPPA, I think
Speaker 1: I had surgery last week, so ironically it was the
Speaker 1: same shoulder surgery you had at the end of December.
Speaker 1: I had here about six or seven weeks later. I'm
Speaker 1: not in my sling now. It is my first time
Speaker 1: sitting at my computer, not in my sling. You will
Speaker 1: be going back on after the show, but I wanted
Speaker 1: to try and do a show here without it and
Speaker 1: look and hopefully sound somewhat normal. It's been a very
Speaker 1: difficult week and a half since the surgery, as I
Speaker 1: know you can relate to, because you were just in
Speaker 1: that situation sleeping, very difficult and along those lines, I've
Speaker 1: paid very little attention to baseball in the last you know,
Speaker 1: we ca and half here since spring training really got underway,
Speaker 1: because I've been focused on, you know, early stages of
Speaker 1: recovery and everything else. So one of the things we're
Speaker 1: going to jump into here is you kind of catching
Speaker 1: me up on what I might have missed here in
Speaker 1: the early stages of spring training. How was your shoulder
Speaker 1: surgery recovering? Though I know there were some comments last
Speaker 1: week about you maybe being a little disrespectful a little
Speaker 1: rude to me about mine, I'm gonna turn the other
Speaker 1: cheek and actually be nice and respect full and ask
Speaker 1: you how you're doing, My dear friend.
Speaker 2: I thought for sure you were teeming me up for
Speaker 2: an apology there. Yeah, there were there were a few comments,
Speaker 2: and thank you to everyone who chimed in with the comments,
Speaker 2: except for you know, a couple of people had some
Speaker 2: some words for me. They didn't realize I was I
Speaker 2: was joking about, you know, your recovery and coming back
Speaker 2: to the show was one joking, especially as someone who
Speaker 2: went through the same surgery. It's funny. I was gonna
Speaker 2: I was going to surprise you by wearing my sling,
Speaker 2: So it would have been pretty ironic that if I
Speaker 2: wore mine and you did not wear yours, that.
Speaker 1: Would show how I'm just like you know, Wolverine out
Speaker 1: here in my healing factor.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: If if anybody notices me grimacing at all during the
Speaker 1: show now that we're on video, it's because I'm like
Speaker 1: trying to move my arm a little bit to type
Speaker 1: or something. I'm having to use a left handed mouse
Speaker 1: these days, which is extremely struggle for me. I'm very
Speaker 1: much right handed. So well, we'll get through the best
Speaker 1: we can. I didn't want to miss too many episodes here.
Speaker 1: I was really excited to do some of these preseason shows.
Speaker 1: We talked about maybe bringing Cycle back at opening day,
Speaker 1: because that's what when we started the show last year
Speaker 1: for our first season. But I think you and I
Speaker 1: really wanted to touch base and meet just once a
Speaker 1: week here kind of in these these you know, month
Speaker 1: and a half or so between when pitchers and catchers
Speaker 1: report and when we actually get to opening day and
Speaker 1: just kind of make sure we're on top of everything
Speaker 1: and bringing the people hopefully what they want, which is uh,
Speaker 1: which is the cycle. So we'll dive right in. Today's episode,
Speaker 1: which you teased last week, is going to be about
Speaker 1: players that we hate ranking. These are the guys that
Speaker 1: UH for you and me and and also for all
Speaker 1: the rankers. You know, we looked a little bit at
Speaker 1: kind of the standard deviation of some of these guys' ranks,
Speaker 1: which you can find in our expert consensus rankings at
Speaker 1: fantasypros dot com. But it's guys that you and I
Speaker 1: have really found that we struggled to rank and really
Speaker 1: decide like how we feel about them. This year, we
Speaker 1: are going to include some names that you guys throughout
Speaker 1: in the comments, so please continue to do that. We
Speaker 1: really appreciate it, both in terms of giving us, you know,
Speaker 1: names that you guys want to hear us talk about,
Speaker 1: and also just for being a part of the show
Speaker 1: and a part of that conversation We're really excited to
Speaker 1: to have everybody kind of hopping into the comments now
Speaker 1: that we are on YouTube, so please continue to do that.
Speaker 1: We definitely appreciate it, and I feel free to throw us,
Speaker 1: you know, replies and comments on social media as well,
Speaker 1: beyond YouTube, but YouTube as we're most likely to see it.
Speaker 1: So we're going to jump into that. We have three
Speaker 1: players each that we wanted to talk about. We'll throw
Speaker 1: us monerol mentions out there, and like I said, a
Speaker 1: couple of players that you guys suggested in the comments.
Speaker 1: But before we get into those players that we hate ranking,
Speaker 1: I do want to ask you to please catch me
Speaker 1: up Mayor on some of the big news and notes
Speaker 1: from the last couple of weeks that I have not
Speaker 1: been paying attention to because I've been otherwise preoccupied.
Speaker 2: Yea, Luckily there hasn't been too much crazy news. We
Speaker 2: had a pretty normal ish off season for baseball. It
Speaker 2: wasn't like in the last year or two, where you know,
Speaker 2: we got to this point of the year and some
Speaker 2: really big names remained unsigned. The last big name to sign,
Speaker 2: or one of the last big names to sign, was
Speaker 2: Alex Bregman went to my Red Sox which you know,
Speaker 2: the Red Sox finally spending some money. I'm pretty excited
Speaker 2: about that as a Red Sox fan, but also from
Speaker 2: a fan, I see a baseball perspective because maybe not
Speaker 2: the biggest jump going from like the Astros Park to
Speaker 2: Fenway Park. You know, there's still kind of that like
Speaker 2: favorable left field for him, but also he's going to
Speaker 2: be eligible second base, it sounds like, which is interesting
Speaker 2: for fantasy. So Alex Bragman, third base, second base eligible.
Speaker 2: I also wouldn't be surprised at some point if he
Speaker 2: played a little shortstop, assuming you know Trevor's story and
Speaker 2: that inevitably goes on the injured list. Not wishing for injuries,
Speaker 2: but you know, just kind of his history there, that's
Speaker 2: a possibility. So if you can get that kind of
Speaker 2: versatility from Alex Bregman, we're fully in baseball players being
Speaker 2: in the best shape of their lives and also adding
Speaker 2: new pitches. Some of the more exciting ones were if
Speaker 2: Paul Skins wasn't already good enough, he's apparently adding a
Speaker 2: two seamer and tinkering with a cutter. So that's pretty
Speaker 2: terrifying for opposing batters because Paul Skins is already really
Speaker 2: good despite leaning on that fastball logan, Gilbert is working
Speaker 2: on what appears to be a splinker, which is a
Speaker 2: fun hybrid sinker splitter pitch.
Speaker 1: Can I ask you quickly on Skeens, where are you
Speaker 1: drafting him this year? Like not amongst pictures, but like
Speaker 1: where in the first or second round or wherever it
Speaker 1: is that you have him, because he's That's the way
Speaker 1: we're talking about today because obviously everybody really likes Skeens.
Speaker 1: There's not much to debate. But I'm always, I always
Speaker 1: really struggle every year with deciding when I want to
Speaker 1: break the seal of going from you know, the tops,
Speaker 1: always a handful of batters to kind of getting into
Speaker 1: that first picture. Where is Skins going for you?
Speaker 2: For me, he's going mid to late first round. And
Speaker 2: we talked about him last week as kind of if
Speaker 2: you're doing that pocket AS's strategy. I kind of liked
Speaker 2: one thing I said, you know, if you not that
Speaker 2: I'm necessarily going to always do pocket ass this year,
Speaker 2: but if you kind of want to do it, one
Speaker 2: interesting way is that if you can get if you're
Speaker 2: like picking like eighth, ninth, tenth, you know, close to
Speaker 2: the turn and skins fallows. You can potentially get Skeens
Speaker 2: and then scooble on the way back and double dip.
Speaker 2: The other thing I like doing is and we talked
Speaker 2: about it a little bit last week. If you want
Speaker 2: to do pocket ass is, get Skeens right there, you know,
Speaker 2: like five, six, seven, eight, and then get another hitter
Speaker 2: in the second round, and then that third round you'll
Speaker 2: still have a decent tier of pictures, like a logan
Speaker 2: Gilbert has fallen to the third round that Kelly mentioned
Speaker 2: if you want to do pocket asis. But also I'm
Speaker 2: fine just taking Skeens as my first pitcher and then
Speaker 2: going hit or heavy and then dealing with picture the
Speaker 2: rest of the way, especially because when you get to
Speaker 2: kind of into that mid to late first round, Skeens
Speaker 2: to me seems kind of more exciting than some of
Speaker 2: the other names that are going around there, like you know,
Speaker 2: like especially when you get to like Frnana Tatis, Corbyn Carrol,
Speaker 2: I feel like I would prefer Skeins over them.
Speaker 1: I was going to ask you where that line of
Speaker 1: demarcation is, and that was exactly what I was going
Speaker 1: to say. Is so in ECR currently if you look
Speaker 1: at it at number nine is Mookie Betts after him,
Speaker 1: Number ten is Frnando Tatists, eleven Corbin Carrol, twelve is
Speaker 1: Francisco Ldor. I think after Bets. To me, it's like,
Speaker 1: actually a no brainer. It's like I am taking Skeens
Speaker 1: if those first nine hitters are off the board. Regardless,
Speaker 1: there are some of those hitters that I would probably
Speaker 1: take Skeens over as well, but I think it's a
Speaker 1: no brainer kind of at like that tenth pick, maybe
Speaker 1: of those names ahead of him, and I was quickly
Speaker 1: reads it's wit Otani, Judge, Jose Ramirez, Ellie de la Cruz,
Speaker 1: Gunner Henderson wants so to Kyle Tucker, Mookie Betts, the
Speaker 1: names everybody would expect. Obviously, how many of those names
Speaker 1: you think you would take Skins over? Because you said
Speaker 1: mid first, so that sounds more like, you know, fifth
Speaker 1: or six pick, or is it? Is it kind of
Speaker 1: that back end of the first.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I said mid first before I looked through the list,
Speaker 2: and then it's probably towards the later first. But it's
Speaker 2: also like, if I'm going into a draft and I
Speaker 2: really want Skeens, I'm probably going to take him, maybe
Speaker 2: after Ellie in that like sixth spot. But I also
Speaker 2: think you're completely justified taking that next tier of hitters
Speaker 2: over him, which is kind of why I landed in
Speaker 2: like that, like ten to eleven Tatis, Carol Spot.
Speaker 1: For me, I think the only four names I'm not
Speaker 1: even considering Skeens over are wit Otani, Judge and Jose Ramirez.
Speaker 1: Everybody else, I would at least kind of think about
Speaker 1: it if I'm on the clock and he's available. Yeah,
Speaker 1: now that we had, Like obviously everybody likes Skeens, I'm
Speaker 1: just he's actually a little low in ECRs. He's seventeenth
Speaker 1: overall and he's behind Thuring Schuble. But like for me,
Speaker 1: like Skeens is the first picture I'm taking, and he
Speaker 1: is not getting to the second round if I'm picking
Speaker 1: Lee in the first. Yeah, like I said, we don't
Speaker 1: need to dive too deep into that. I just was
Speaker 1: kind of curious because I think it's one of the
Speaker 1: more fascinating conversations every year in terms of like how
Speaker 1: early do you want to pull the trigger on a picture?
Speaker 1: And and for me, Skeens that guy this year, So
Speaker 1: you said he's added some pitches. Very scary look, Gilbert
Speaker 1: Tinkering with the splinker, the splinker Tinker. What else you got?
Speaker 2: Flinker Tinker? I did, I didn't I mentioned it's it's
Speaker 2: a little bit more of a normal year. There are
Speaker 2: some still interesting free agents that have remained unsigned, despite
Speaker 2: you know, spring training started already. Jatie Martinez. I was
Speaker 2: for Dugo Spencer Turnbull. I thought it was a really
Speaker 2: interesting name that I'm surprised no one has picked up
Speaker 2: Jose I Glacias, Lance Lynn, Jose Cantana, and Kyle Gibson.
Speaker 2: So not like a you know, real all star lineup
Speaker 2: of players, but an interesting, interesting list of players and
Speaker 2: a quick pop quiz for you from from this list,
Speaker 2: and like not that this is my war on war.
Speaker 2: A lot of people know that I'm not a huge
Speaker 2: war guy. But of the people on this list, who
Speaker 2: do you think the highest war last year? Uh?
Speaker 1: I don't know. Uh on a baseball reference or on fanographs, fangrass,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna guess it's a hitter than was it for
Speaker 1: du Goo.
Speaker 2: No, it's actually Jose Iglaciers, probably because it's like overvaluing
Speaker 2: his defense.
Speaker 1: I was good, Okay, I almost said a Glaciers for
Speaker 1: the glove only, but I just couldn't get there.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and then who's the one who's projected to have
Speaker 2: they're all free agents obviously, but who's projected right now
Speaker 2: to have the highest war among this group? Uh?
Speaker 1: Maybe Lynn or Gibson. Actually, I don't know. I don't
Speaker 1: I don't even want to put a real guest to
Speaker 1: who is it?
Speaker 2: Well, you don't want to put a real guester, But
Speaker 2: you almost had the right name because It'skyli Gibson.
Speaker 1: So okay, I should just stopped yourself.
Speaker 2: Short of staying in the correct answer. And then the other
Speaker 2: thing before we go too much further, is that you
Speaker 2: and I, much to your chagrin, tied the two star
Speaker 2: pitcher competition from last Definitely.
Speaker 1: We definitely did not. This is this is false. I
Speaker 1: won't stand for this, these lies that you're saying tied.
Speaker 1: There's no way. I mean, it was horrible judgment of
Speaker 1: who won each week at the end of the year,
Speaker 1: which I wasn't even a part of.
Speaker 2: So I don't know whose fault is that.
Speaker 1: Our bosses for saying I need to focus on football
Speaker 1: when we get to August. I don't agree with this.
Speaker 1: I don't think we tied the two star picture competition.
Speaker 1: I'm want to go back and demand a recount.
Speaker 2: Okay, I'll recount it right now. We tied, we still tied.
Speaker 1: I believe I felt pretty strongly that in that final
Speaker 1: week you gave yourself a win when when my I
Speaker 1: think I must have been Kelly false.
Speaker 2: Kelly won the last week. So you're you haven't even
Speaker 2: looked into this much closer. So I.
Speaker 1: Refuse to believe this is accurate, and I will give
Speaker 1: you no more airtime to speak these lies into existence. Uh,
Speaker 1: just jump to the actual show here. Like I said,
Speaker 1: we're talking about kind of polarizing draft targets guys that
Speaker 1: we are really struggling to rank. We didn't kind of
Speaker 1: intentionally do it by position, but we do each have
Speaker 1: one infielder to talk about, which have one pitcher coming
Speaker 1: back from injury to talk about, and we kind of
Speaker 1: have like a you know, wild card player at a
Speaker 1: different position to talk about. And then like I said,
Speaker 1: we've got those listener picks as well. All right, we'll
Speaker 1: start with the infielders here, and we'll start with mine
Speaker 1: Jackson Holiday. So I actually didn't really intend to go
Speaker 1: into this with like starting off talking about an Oriel.
Speaker 2: Kicking where you left off at the homework pick.
Speaker 1: So in might defense, I sent you like six names
Speaker 1: and said I can't really pick, like which three d
Speaker 1: you want to talk about? And Holiday was the only
Speaker 1: Oriole on that list, But we did end up picking
Speaker 1: an Oriel here. I think he's really fascinating to decide
Speaker 1: because you could hardly have had a more hyped prospect
Speaker 1: coming into last season. Not that he was like an
Speaker 1: all time but like he was up there in terms
Speaker 1: of his age and what he had done in his
Speaker 1: limited experience as a professional at the minor league level,
Speaker 1: and you couple that with you could hardly have had
Speaker 1: a worse debut. There was a couple of stretches where
Speaker 1: it looked like he was turning things around, and you know,
Speaker 1: he went on some some you know, heaters in terms
Speaker 1: of like, oh he had home runs like three straight days,
Speaker 1: you know, some big hits. But overall, you know, the
Speaker 1: batting average is one to eighty nine, the ops was
Speaker 1: five sixty six. He only had four stolen bases in
Speaker 1: sixty games, which I was surprised by. I thought he
Speaker 1: was going to run a bit more. Obviously. The strikeouts
Speaker 1: were like a huge problem, particularly early. He struck out
Speaker 1: in fifty percent of his plate appearances in his first
Speaker 1: you know, a couple of weeks in the majors before
Speaker 1: being demoted and then coming up again and doing a
Speaker 1: bit better his second time through, but overall, like obviously
Speaker 1: a very poor year. Having said that, he's now kind
Speaker 1: of gotten that under his belt. The Orioles in particular,
Speaker 1: we have seen this happen a lot. Gunnar Henderson struggled
Speaker 1: his first kind of month or two. The big Leagues'
Speaker 1: Adlee Rutchman struggled for like a month before kind of
Speaker 1: breaking out. You know, Jackson Holiday a bit longer of
Speaker 1: a struggle. He was a bit younger than those guys too,
Speaker 1: and then they turned it on and showed everybody why
Speaker 1: they were number one prospects in baseball. You know, kind
Speaker 1: of once that switch was flipped, Holiday in camp looks yoked.
Speaker 1: He clearly beefed up in the offseason. I wouldn't be
Speaker 1: surprised if we see more power this year. He's now
Speaker 1: gotten to spend an entire offseason focusing solely on second
Speaker 1: base and knowing that's where he's going to be playing
Speaker 1: this year. I think there's a chance that he just
Speaker 1: explodes and has this awesome year at the position. I
Speaker 1: also think there's a chance that he's still young, hasn't
Speaker 1: the switch hasn't flipped yet, and he's not good given
Speaker 1: the pedigree and the age. I want to be buying
Speaker 1: Jackson holiday. I want to have him on my teams
Speaker 1: and take that swing, because I think there's a ton
Speaker 1: of real upside there, especially in a lineup where if
Speaker 1: he is good, if he is what we think he
Speaker 1: can be, you can slide him in at the top
Speaker 1: of the lineup, move Gunner down to maybe the three spot,
Speaker 1: leave Adleott two, and all of a sudden, the opportunity
Speaker 1: for scoring more runs is going to be like immense
Speaker 1: as opposed to where he's been hitting, which is in
Speaker 1: the kind of seventy eight to nine range. But the
Speaker 1: downside is clearly there, because we just saw the downside
Speaker 1: last year, and it's really the pedigree that we're counting
Speaker 1: on as a reason to think he's going to take
Speaker 1: a big step forward rather than at least in my opinion,
Speaker 1: anything we saw like in the underlying numbers last year.
Speaker 1: At the end of the year, it was better than
Speaker 1: it was in April, but not like, oh, this is
Speaker 1: the most obvious breakout guy. So that's why I really
Speaker 1: struggle to rank him both at the position and kind
Speaker 1: of overall. What say you may.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with most of what you said. I
Speaker 2: feel like this year we might still be from a
Speaker 2: fantasy perspective, maybe like a year early. Like you said,
Speaker 2: he's still really young. He came out, he had a
Speaker 2: really rough start. I don't want to put too much
Speaker 2: weight into projections, but I always look at projections when
Speaker 2: I kind of like, you know, pull up their pages
Speaker 2: and kind of like see what we're looking at. Projections
Speaker 2: don't love him, And with the caveat that, projections are
Speaker 2: usually pretty conservative, so it's you're not going to see
Speaker 2: projections like predict a major breakout, so you kind of
Speaker 2: have to take that with a grain AsSalt when you
Speaker 2: are looking at projections. But I do kind of look
Speaker 2: at the consensus projections on fans to browth and see
Speaker 2: what we're looking with. Shout out to Zeal Projections, by
Speaker 2: the way, second most accurate last season behind Derek Carty's
Speaker 2: The bat X and Fantasy Pros. Zeal projections were actually
Speaker 2: the first for pitching, so shout out to Fantasy Spros
Speaker 2: data team for that, but they haven't protected for like
Speaker 2: one hundred and nine between hundred nine hundred twenty games,
Speaker 2: eleven home runs, eight stolen bases, batting in like the
Speaker 2: two thirties. That's that's pretty much the contensus across the board.
Speaker 2: That's not great depending you know, for fantasy obviously you
Speaker 2: would want him to take a like I said, as
Speaker 2: being conservative, you want to take a bigger step forward.
Speaker 1: I think that I think that game's total is wrong.
Speaker 1: I think he's playing every day for the most part.
Speaker 1: Like I don't think we're going to see the same
Speaker 1: level of sitting him against lefties that we saw last year.
Speaker 1: Like the way they approached this offseason. As an Oils fan,
Speaker 1: I was somewhat, you know, frustrated by it, but it's
Speaker 1: very clear it's Jordan Westberg is playing third base every day,
Speaker 1: Gonna Hunderson is playing shorts up every day, and Jackson
Speaker 1: Holliday is playing second base every day, and he will
Speaker 1: have to struggle to not play one hundred and forty games.
Speaker 1: In my opinion, I could be proven wrong, but I'm
Speaker 1: expecting a full year from him.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's possible, and they're definitely being conservatives. You
Speaker 2: wonder are they Are they predicting more sitting versus lefties.
Speaker 2: Are they protecting him to get sent down at some point?
Speaker 2: Which is possible from a fantasy perspective. I do think
Speaker 2: it's a year early, but he is going pretty late.
Speaker 2: He's going I was actually looking at my rank because
Speaker 2: I have him wrong to right around two hundred. Right now,
Speaker 2: let's see where he's his ADP is, and he's right
Speaker 2: around there. He's one ninety four. So you're not gonna
Speaker 2: it's not like a huge risk. You're not taking this
Speaker 2: guy in the first five rounds, and so there is
Speaker 2: the upside of like the breakout there. I tend to
Speaker 2: think we're still a year early just because of how
Speaker 2: young he is, but you know, a lot of potential there.
Speaker 1: What do you think about at the position he's he's
Speaker 1: sixteenth amongst second basement right now in ECR, you know,
Speaker 1: surrounded by names like he's right ahead of like Glabora Torres,
Speaker 1: Jonathan India, you know, Michael Garcia's twentieth ahead of him.
Speaker 1: You know guys like Bryson Stott Rise, you know Nico
Speaker 1: Horner's a few spots ahead of him, Like is that
Speaker 1: is that the right spot for him is sixteenth at
Speaker 1: the position.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say it probably is Nico Horner. I
Speaker 2: would prefer over him. Matt Shaw is someone like Kelly
Speaker 2: talked about last week as a sleeper who's really intriguing.
Speaker 2: Who's the second you know should have some second base eligibility.
Speaker 2: Bryson Stott. I feel like we know who Bryson Stott is,
Speaker 2: and he's like a solid baseball player. But Jackson Holliday
Speaker 2: might be more of like an exciting dart throw at
Speaker 2: that point, you know, for picking like Bryson Stott versus
Speaker 2: Jackson Holliday. Jackson Holiday has some upset upside. Rafaella is
Speaker 2: right around there with second based eligibility. There are a
Speaker 2: lot of questions about like whether he's going to play
Speaker 2: every day, so there are you know, just as many
Speaker 2: questions about him and his like proclivity to swing at
Speaker 2: everything to where jack You know, Jackson Holliday might be
Speaker 2: a more exciting pick in that range, but I think
Speaker 2: that's right around where he should be. I don't think
Speaker 2: you should go much lower than that.
Speaker 1: I'll say this, I think of all the names not
Speaker 1: in the top six of the position, if I had
Speaker 1: to bet on one, that's the best value to possibly
Speaker 1: wind up in the top six this year. It's him
Speaker 1: because the downside is like super apparent, but so is
Speaker 1: the upside, and I think the upside is more enticing
Speaker 1: to me than some of these other names. All Right,
Speaker 1: we got our ools stalk out of the way. Who's
Speaker 1: your infielador that you wanted to talk about?
Speaker 2: I wanted to go with zach Netto, which I'm always
Speaker 2: tempted to say his name is like Nido, which then
Speaker 2: I just think about Anchorman and my brain, my ADHD
Speaker 2: just starts taking me in a different direction like Nido Gang.
Speaker 2: But zach Netto is a fascinating one because I look
Speaker 2: at the numbers and I'm kind of wowed that he
Speaker 2: went twenty three home rounds thirty Stone bases bat at
Speaker 2: around two fifty. But like when I watch him and
Speaker 2: when I look at his underlying metrics, I'm like, are
Speaker 2: we sure he's good? And like now he's got an
Speaker 2: injury that he's dealing with too, Like it seems like
Speaker 2: he could be should be ready for opening Day, but
Speaker 2: he just started like playing catch recently, I believe, so
Speaker 2: there's injury concern there too, And I just he's kind
Speaker 2: of a fascinating one for him, a fascinating rank for
Speaker 2: me because I look at him and I look at
Speaker 2: the numbers and I'm like, this is really valuable. But
Speaker 2: then I look I kind of dive into who he
Speaker 2: is as a player, and I just kind of don't
Speaker 2: see it, and I want to move him lower my rankings,
Speaker 2: and it just makes me nervous because if you look
Speaker 2: at he's like not that we want to like only
Speaker 2: look at stack cast data, but when you look at
Speaker 2: statcast data, despite his production, it's a lot of blue,
Speaker 2: and it's a lot there are a lot of red
Speaker 2: flags there. And so even as someone who batted to
Speaker 2: forty nine last year, he's expected batting average was two
Speaker 2: thirty six, and you just look at like, you know,
Speaker 2: his like sweet spot numbers like not good chase with
Speaker 2: k rate all well below average, doesn't have a great
Speaker 2: like ex velocity or like barrel percentage, and it's just
Speaker 2: you know, I think we're going to see a lot
Speaker 2: of people kind of like projecting out that kind of
Speaker 2: production again, and the oh, I can get like twenty
Speaker 2: plus home runs, thirty stolen bases from him, and I
Speaker 2: get that, I get that kind of like powers combo.
Speaker 2: But I also wonder if we're kind of over projecting
Speaker 2: him based on his you know, kind of like prospect
Speaker 2: pedigree and some of the kind of luck he ran
Speaker 2: into last year when some of the underlarmed numbers are
Speaker 2: not good.
Speaker 1: I have a pretty clear answer to this. I wonder
Speaker 1: if you also see the same way, what do you
Speaker 1: think he's more likely to repeat twenty three home runs
Speaker 1: or thirty stolen bases?
Speaker 2: I assume stolen bases.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would agree with that. He also got caught
Speaker 1: stealing ten times last year. It's kind of a lot,
Speaker 1: but it kind of shows that they were the angels
Speaker 1: didn't mind letting him run. Certainly, I find it very
Speaker 1: difficult to imagine. You know, it's only a second year.
Speaker 1: Like me, he can still get better, Obviously, I find
Speaker 1: it very difficult to imagine him getting twenty home runs again,
Speaker 1: given some of the underlying numbers you pointed out. Whereas
Speaker 1: I do see him as a likely source of stolen bases,
Speaker 1: I don't maybe he doesn't get thirty, but like I
Speaker 1: would imagine he is getting twenty twenty five like at minimum,
Speaker 1: barring an injury. Whereas home runs, I'd be more comfortable,
Speaker 1: like if you had to give me, like what's the
Speaker 1: minimum you think he gets, it'd be more like fifteen
Speaker 1: eighteen rather than in the twenties.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's just kind of he had twenty three
Speaker 2: home runs last year and if you look at his
Speaker 2: regrant that he you know, was drafted in twenty twenty two,
Speaker 2: I believe, and just kind of like has flown through
Speaker 2: the minor leagues. He had twenty three home runs last year,
Speaker 2: and it is like previous like two minor league seasons combined,
Speaker 2: he had like just around like twenty three combined, dating
Speaker 2: all the way back to like high A ball, and
Speaker 2: so we just haven't seen this kind of power from him.
Speaker 1: And he played eighty four games in twenty twenty three
Speaker 1: and had nine homers, so he played, you know, more
Speaker 1: than half a season and had single digits. So yeah,
Speaker 1: it just doesn't seem like barring a lucky season, that's
Speaker 1: really in his skill set. He's twentieth at shortstop I
Speaker 1: think right now in ECR, and he's you know, obviously
Speaker 1: his ADP is one to eighty three, So similar to holidays,
Speaker 1: somebody that you're not having to spend big bucks on,
Speaker 1: so maybe worth a swing, but I think he's a
Speaker 1: good pick of somebody where kind of fitting this topic
Speaker 1: of conversation. Is a difficult person to rank because if
Speaker 1: you just look at that setting everything else aside. If
Speaker 1: you look at a twenty four year old shortstop who
Speaker 1: went twenty thirty last year, that is somebody you want
Speaker 1: to invest in, but it's hard to want to rank
Speaker 1: him aggressively a given the strength of the position and
Speaker 1: be given all the stuff you laid out all right,
Speaker 1: before we get into our injured pitchers, want to let
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Speaker 1: at fantasypros dot com slash mock. I will be using
Speaker 1: that mock draft simulator a lot because I have joined
Speaker 1: a couple of new leagues this year, including one that
Speaker 1: you invited me to Marror, which I appreciate, although I
Speaker 1: didn't agree to join until Dan Harris made the official invite,
Speaker 1: and I want that on record.
Speaker 2: In my defense, it was my idea for him to
Speaker 2: text you. I was like, well, you text him, you can.
Speaker 2: You can bring this over the finish line, like give
Speaker 2: him the old Dan Harris charm and bring it home
Speaker 2: and lo and behold, nailed it.
Speaker 1: It worked. It worked one hundred percent. I'm excited to
Speaker 1: be in that league. It's a fun one that you've
Speaker 1: talked about on the show before, but I definitely need
Speaker 1: to get some prep in. It's probably had a type
Speaker 1: of league, now that I say it out loud that
Speaker 1: I can really use the draft simulator for. It's a
Speaker 1: very specific rule league, but I'll certainly be using the
Speaker 1: simulator for all of my other league prep that I
Speaker 1: need to do and catch up on all the stuff
Speaker 1: I've been missing with the surgery. All right, let's get
Speaker 1: to our injured pictures here. I'll let you go first
Speaker 1: this time.
Speaker 2: Who you got sure I'm going to go? I think
Speaker 2: we have two interesting names here in terms of just
Speaker 2: kind of like injured pictures, like high end pictures returning
Speaker 2: from injury Spencer. Strider's is a really fascinating one because
Speaker 2: you know, he was sp one last year and or
Speaker 2: you know, going into last year and you know, twenty
Speaker 2: twenty three, two hundred and eighty one strikeouts, and.
Speaker 1: He wasn't just sp one and he was like what
Speaker 1: we just talked about with schemes, like where in the
Speaker 1: first round are you taking to Strider? He was exactly
Speaker 1: the clear cut, no doubt about it, sp one.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I took him in the first round in a
Speaker 2: few or at least a couple of high stakes leaus.
Speaker 2: I mentioned this in YouTube comments last week when I
Speaker 2: was chatting with people. I mentioned they were talking about,
Speaker 2: you know, going double aces and sp early, and I mentioned,
Speaker 2: you know, I kind of took a big swing in
Speaker 2: some high stakes leagues and a different strategy and took
Speaker 2: Strider in the first round. And obviously it went poorly
Speaker 2: for me. But also if you took Ronald lcuoney in
Speaker 2: the first round last year, probably didn't have a great
Speaker 2: year either. The thing with Striders, I don't always love
Speaker 2: taking players who are already injured, especially pictures, because you're
Speaker 2: already going to deal with enough injuries. I don't like
Speaker 2: starting with players who are already injured. The thing that's
Speaker 2: intriguing for about him is that he's going pretty late.
Speaker 2: And even though there's some sestions about whther or not
Speaker 2: he's going to start the year like some people think
Speaker 2: he's gonna, you know, maybe miss the first month, he's
Speaker 2: already throwing off a mount. You know, we're in February.
Speaker 2: You know, we're still a month from the season starting,
Speaker 2: and he's already thrown off a mound. How much time
Speaker 2: is he really going to miss? You know, they're projecting
Speaker 2: him for about one hundred and twenty innings. One hundred
Speaker 2: and twenty innings at a spencer strider, a lot more
Speaker 2: valuable than one hundred twenty innings that other pictures, especially
Speaker 2: if maybe you push that to like one hundred and
Speaker 2: thirty hundred and forty innings now we're talking.
Speaker 1: I mean he in twenty twenty two, he only threw
Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty one innings and he still had
Speaker 1: over two hundred strikeouts. In fact, he doesn't need that
Speaker 1: much work if he's what he was before to help
Speaker 1: you immensely in the category like.
Speaker 2: That, and he's just going late enough. You know, let's
Speaker 2: look at his ADP from from from recent drafts. His
Speaker 2: ADP is one twenty seven, so you can get him
Speaker 2: like you're not paying a you know, even if you
Speaker 2: want to, Like we talked about this a little bit
Speaker 2: last week with like different like Fantasys Baseball Draft Strategies,
Speaker 2: which you can go check out that video with me
Speaker 2: and Kelly too because we talked about some of the stuff.
Speaker 2: But just like in know, if there's an interesting kind
Speaker 2: of like middle ground of pitcher this year, if you
Speaker 2: want to hammer like hitters early and then you can
Speaker 2: start hitting like Spencer Strider, a Contra and some of
Speaker 2: these other Jeffrey Springs late, you can start hitting this
Speaker 2: like there's there's a lot of value. Obviously you're like,
Speaker 2: you know, some of these pictures are not going to
Speaker 2: really like pan out, but there's just really interesting middle
Speaker 2: area of pictures that you don't have to pay up for.
Speaker 2: Because the pictures this year, like there's a there's top
Speaker 2: tiers of Skiens Schooble, and then I think there's a
Speaker 2: teer break Wheeler Logan Gilbert, and I think there's another
Speaker 2: tier break and then it's like you get into more
Speaker 2: question marks like Corby Burns, Gara Corchet Chris Sale, and
Speaker 2: then you're getting pretty far down the list, and the
Speaker 2: difference between like SP ten and SP forty or so
Speaker 2: might not be that big this year. And if you
Speaker 2: can hit on names like Spencer Stryder, you know after
Speaker 2: pick one hundred, there's a lot of upside there.
Speaker 1: I really I think he's a great call for this discussion.
Speaker 1: I was going to ask you if I had miss
Speaker 1: kind of any early updates. It looks like on his
Speaker 1: page on Fantasy Pros, just kind of looking at the
Speaker 1: news and notes, you know, mixed in a curveball during
Speaker 1: side session Friday. That was four days ago. So next
Speaker 1: step facing live hitters. I am with you, particularly at picture.
Speaker 1: I just tend to not want the injured guys. Like again,
Speaker 1: it's it's like drafting in football in general, but specifically
Speaker 1: for pictures in baseball. You know you're gonna get hit
Speaker 1: with injuries. Why add to that risk on purpose? And
Speaker 1: Strider is such an exception because the ceiling isn't Oh,
Speaker 1: this is like a quality starting pitture in irritation. The
Speaker 1: ceiling is holy cow, you got the best picture in
Speaker 1: Fantasy baseball. Again. Now, I don't think either of us
Speaker 1: are thinking he's going to be that even in the
Speaker 1: best case scenario when he returns, But it's a non
Speaker 1: zero chance that he is an elite ace, like in
Speaker 1: the innings he's giving you, even if it's not going
Speaker 1: to be, you know, a full workload of innings. So
Speaker 1: i've him actually cut for different reasons, similarly to how
Speaker 1: I viewed Scheens last year, where I wasn't entirely sure
Speaker 1: what the timeline was going to be. I wasn't entirely
Speaker 1: sure how the team was going to treat him once
Speaker 1: he was pitching in terms of the number of innings,
Speaker 1: but that I was reasonably certain the innings we were
Speaker 1: going to get were going to be pretty superb if
Speaker 1: he was actually out there, and if you invested in
Speaker 1: schemes that worked out really well for you, by the
Speaker 1: end of the season, you had this absolute stud So
Speaker 1: the fact that I'm kind of making that comparison almost
Speaker 1: makes me think he should be ranked higher, or at
Speaker 1: least somebody that I draft higher than an ADP of
Speaker 1: one twenty seven to make sure I get him. But
Speaker 1: similar to I mean, all the guys were going to
Speaker 1: talk about obviously the reason they're on this list, it's
Speaker 1: because there's an upside case and a downside case. I
Speaker 1: don't know where I really come down in terms of,
Speaker 1: like specifically where I'm drafting him, So like, if you
Speaker 1: want to be aggressive and get him, how much earlier
Speaker 1: than that as of right now? And his ADP might
Speaker 1: change with you know, news updates throughout March, But as
Speaker 1: of right now, where would you actually like click draft
Speaker 1: on him to make sure you get him if you
Speaker 1: want to take that risk.
Speaker 2: Well, that's what I'm thinking, because he's going like tenth
Speaker 2: to eleventh round right now, and drafts are going to
Speaker 2: start coming up. I've only drafted one league right now,
Speaker 2: but over the next few weeks, I'm gonna have a
Speaker 2: lot more drafts. And like I said, he's already kind
Speaker 2: of throwing, and if we start getting more and more
Speaker 2: positive reports from him, that ADP is going to rise,
Speaker 2: and then it's a question of how far has it
Speaker 2: rise to the port where I'm comfortable Right now, I
Speaker 2: feel like I'm comfortable rolling the dice in the eighth round,
Speaker 2: which is still you know, not that big of a risk,
Speaker 2: assuming you know you have some pretty good picks in
Speaker 2: the first seven rounds, which if you don't, you're kind
Speaker 2: of screwed anyway, But that feel, I don't know that
Speaker 2: I can, Like at his current ADP, he's going like
Speaker 2: tenth eleventh round, and I could I'm fine taking him
Speaker 2: around or two earlier to make sure I get him
Speaker 2: to kind of take that swing once his ADP. If
Speaker 2: it goes much higher than that and we go like seventh,
Speaker 2: sixth round, then I start getting nervous that I don't know. One,
Speaker 2: if you're going to get the ROI there, and if
Speaker 2: they're you know, there, becomes more risk and I don't
Speaker 2: the value kind of shrinks.
Speaker 1: So let's loop in my injured picture. Who's going in
Speaker 1: a very similar spot in drafts Shane McClanahan, who was
Speaker 1: obviously awesome prior to his injury. Now it feels like
Speaker 1: a long while ago because it kind of was. Unlike Strider,
Speaker 1: there's no confusion about his timeline. He has been announced
Speaker 1: as the Ray's opening day starter already, which it was
Speaker 1: a piece of news I did see seventeen months removed
Speaker 1: from his Tommy John surgery. So, like I said, it's
Speaker 1: been like a year and a half, but we know
Speaker 1: he's going to be back out there already. Obviously a
Speaker 1: picture who was very good prior to the injury. He's
Speaker 1: still only twenty seven years old. It's not like he's,
Speaker 1: you know, that much older. In twenty twenty three, the
Speaker 1: last time we saw him, you know, his era was
Speaker 1: three twenty nine. He start out one hundred and twenty
Speaker 1: one batters in one hundred and fifteen innings, which was
Speaker 1: a step down from his twenty twenty two which was
Speaker 1: superb but too fifty four era. His strikeout rate was
Speaker 1: over thirty percent. He ha one hundred ninety four in
Speaker 1: one hundred and sixty six and a third innings. Just
Speaker 1: a very very good pitcher in an organization that knows
Speaker 1: how to use their pitchers. We haven't seen him in
Speaker 1: a while, so he's a couple of spots higher than
Speaker 1: Stryder in ECR rank amongst pitchers Stryder's fifty one and
Speaker 1: mclanahan's forty eighth at the position, but ADP is a
Speaker 1: couple of spots lower. Stryder's won twenty seven, mclanhan's won
Speaker 1: thirty one. Would you rather have Stryder or McLanahan this year.
Speaker 2: That's a great question. And I love this pick because
Speaker 2: of what you said, because it's not like his injury
Speaker 2: was much longer ago, Like he was working his way
Speaker 2: back toward the end of last year and probably could
Speaker 2: have returned at at the tail end of the season,
Speaker 2: and they just kind of opted to play it safe.
Speaker 2: So now he's had several more months to continue getting ready.
Speaker 2: And the projections are showing that too, because while Strider
Speaker 2: was projected at like one hundred and twenty innings, they're
Speaker 2: already saying mclanaank if they're one sixty or more. And
Speaker 2: that's really exciting given how good he was when he
Speaker 2: was on the mound in that league that you just joined.
Speaker 2: There's some shame McClanahan lower there because a few years ago,
Speaker 2: our friend of the show, Brandon Tuma, posted like a
Speaker 2: draft day screenshot on the morning of our auction or
Speaker 2: a salary draft day.
Speaker 1: You mean the movie draft day of the movie Draft what?
Speaker 2: Yeah, Yeah, Shane mclanahand no matter what, And then two
Speaker 2: might I got into a bidding war for McLanahan and
Speaker 2: he thought I was just gonna one up him for
Speaker 2: the rest of the evening, but I really was at
Speaker 2: my limit and he he stopped, and so I ended
Speaker 2: up getting McLanahan and he will. He brings it up
Speaker 2: every year. But yeah, I would to answer your question,
Speaker 2: I think I would rather have McLanahan just because you're
Speaker 2: gonna get more out of him. And I think, I mean,
Speaker 2: there's still there's risk with all pictures, especially pictures were
Speaker 2: covering from injury, but his timeline is so much different,
Speaker 2: like it's so different from Strider that you know you
Speaker 2: can there's there's a lot more there.
Speaker 1: So why why did think mclanahan's ADP is lower? Because
Speaker 1: I I just think the certainty of knowing he's going
Speaker 1: to be on the mound day one is worth at
Speaker 1: the very least being a better ADP than Stryder, if
Speaker 1: not significantly better, just given that there is no confusion
Speaker 1: with Strider and it's a McLanahan is a slouch right,
Speaker 1: Like again, he maybe wasn't as elite as Strider was,
Speaker 1: but very very very good starting pitcher when we last
Speaker 1: saw him. So why is the ADP like that? I
Speaker 1: would think the certainty of the injury is people just
Speaker 1: forgetting about him, Like I don't understand.
Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe you know some some people forgetting about him
Speaker 2: and then also just kind of like disagreeing on the
Speaker 2: ceiling because you know, like Shan mclannan could be an
Speaker 2: sp one, maybe not sp one overall, but like n
Speaker 2: sp one for sure, Whereas like Strider potentially is the
Speaker 2: best pitcher in baseball. But like you said, mclann has
Speaker 2: no slouch either. He's still really really good and we've
Speaker 2: seen him be really really good, and so yeah, I
Speaker 2: know I could. I completely agree he's difficult to rank,
Speaker 2: but also I feel like I'm going to be more
Speaker 2: aggressive on him just because of what we see.
Speaker 1: If I can get McLanahan in the like early eleventh
Speaker 1: round or whatever one thirty one that is with the math,
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm gonna be sprinting to the podium to
Speaker 1: make that pick like that. See if if he starts
Speaker 1: to go up in ADP, maybe that it becomes a
Speaker 1: different conversation similar to Strider. But right now, like that is,
Speaker 1: to my opinion, one of the most screaming values you
Speaker 1: can have in a draft this year is the upside
Speaker 1: you can get with McLanahan with less injury uncertainty then
Speaker 1: you're gonna get with some of these other guys. So
Speaker 1: I think these are two guys that are gonna be
Speaker 1: kind of tied together throughout most of the year, honestly
Speaker 1: in terms of how I'm evaluating them given where they're
Speaker 1: going in drafts right now.
Speaker 2: Yep, I agree.
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to our kind of last you
Speaker 1: know players each There's no theme with this one. We
Speaker 1: just each picked one more player. I went with Brent Rooker,
Speaker 1: and when I was sitting down to think about these players,
Speaker 1: there was kind of a couple different categories, and I
Speaker 1: try to hit on all of them. There were the
Speaker 1: injured guys who that's why they're uncertain is just trickly injury.
Speaker 1: There's the young guys who haven't broken out yet, like
Speaker 1: of Jackson Holliday. And then there's the guys who you know,
Speaker 1: have shown it but at a surprising age or surprising
Speaker 1: point in their career where you have to question kind
Speaker 1: of how legitimate it is. Brett Rocker was awesome last year.
Speaker 1: It's not like he's, you know, late thirties. He is
Speaker 1: thirty right now, but that's a late breakout. He's also
Speaker 1: going to be playing in this you know, weird Sacramento
Speaker 1: Park with a bad as team. But you look at
Speaker 1: the numbers from last year thirty nine home runs, one
Speaker 1: hundred and twelve RBI even on a bad team. He
Speaker 1: stole eleven bases, so like he wasn't even a zero there,
Speaker 1: and he almost hit three hundred. His bating average two
Speaker 1: ninety three. His BATPP was definitely elevated, so I wouldn't
Speaker 1: expect another two ninety three season from him, but in
Speaker 1: ops over nine hundred, another thirty home run season, which
Speaker 1: also did in twenty twenty three. By the way, he
Speaker 1: had thirty home runs. You know. The stolen bases I
Speaker 1: think is somewhat legitimate. He only had four the year before,
Speaker 1: but I you know, give him eight or something like that,
Speaker 1: I think is very much on the table. And yet
Speaker 1: late stage breakout always kind of has me worried, especially
Speaker 1: when it's coupled with a bapup like the one he had,
Speaker 1: and you know, seems to be a degree of luck
Speaker 1: in there as well. His ADP's fifty eight. So this
Speaker 1: is a guy who's going much higher than some of
Speaker 1: the other names we've talked about. If you were going
Speaker 1: to guarantee he's going to repeat last season, and he'd be,
Speaker 1: you know, even higher than fifty, much higher than fifty eight.
Speaker 1: So there's already some of that uncertainty baked in, I
Speaker 1: really struggle with where to rank him. Also DH only
Speaker 1: in some leagues, I believe according to our site on
Speaker 1: Yahoo he's outfield eligible. On ESPN and CBS he's DH only,
Speaker 1: which is why he is kind of listed as you know,
Speaker 1: rostered higher in Yahoo. This would be a reason for that.
Speaker 1: So that also, you know, plays a role in evaluating him.
Speaker 1: What do you make of Rooker? Obviously we know he's
Speaker 1: great last year and we talked about him a lot
Speaker 1: on the SHO last year actually too, But what do
Speaker 1: you make about him for ranking him in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's a tough one because of what you said.
Speaker 2: You know, he's he's thirty. He's not ancient, but he
Speaker 2: also didn't really break out until he was thirty or
Speaker 2: maybe you know, like twenty eight. You know, count twenty
Speaker 2: twenty three as his breakout. But if if Brent Brooker
Speaker 2: is twenty five years old, he's the first round pick,
Speaker 2: and you know, you're kind of like projecting it out.
Speaker 2: But since he's not, and since you know, like the
Speaker 2: babbet was elevated, but you know, expect the batting average
Speaker 2: is still two sixty six. If you can sign up
Speaker 2: for two sixty six and forty home runs and then
Speaker 2: also sprinkle in double digit stolen bases, like everyone is
Speaker 2: looking for that on draft day. But he is is
Speaker 2: difficult to draft for or to rank for the reasons
Speaker 2: you mentioned. It's kind of hard to trust this late
Speaker 2: breakout the Babbitt was inflated, still like an incredible hitter.
Speaker 2: The ballpark thing is really interesting because it seems like
Speaker 2: the dimensions it's not going to be like a danetin.
Speaker 2: It seems like the dimensions for this ballpark are going
Speaker 2: to be pretty similar to the Coliseum in Oakland, just
Speaker 2: with with less foul territory. But also who knows how
Speaker 2: this park is going to play. The balls could be
Speaker 2: flying out of there just based on you know how
Speaker 2: you know these smaller ballparks, you know, like smaller stadiums
Speaker 2: ballpark type of things play, or maybe it has like
Speaker 2: a really tough batters eye, like like what's going on
Speaker 2: Seattle where it's just like hard to see there. So
Speaker 2: you don't want to like over emphasize the ballpark stuff,
Speaker 2: but it's something to think about that makes it difficult
Speaker 2: to rank anyone on the a's But you would have
Speaker 2: to assume it's not gonna be worse than the Colosseum,
Speaker 2: you would think.
Speaker 1: I think the general consensus from people smarter than me
Speaker 1: has been that it's you yeah, can you imagine is
Speaker 1: that it'll be hitter more hitter friendly than the Colosseum,
Speaker 1: but still would skew towards Pitcher friendly. I'm not going
Speaker 1: to pretend to have like a ton of knowledge or
Speaker 1: expertise about how that will actually play. It'll be it'll
Speaker 1: be like a very key storyline to pay attention to
Speaker 1: early in the year, certainly, but my expectation is better
Speaker 1: than the Colosseum, but still picture friendly.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I mean, like we'll say, there's so much
Speaker 2: unknown there, but yeah, it makes him, you know, difficult
Speaker 2: to rank because of you see this production and you
Speaker 2: I kind of just want to sign up for it again.
Speaker 2: But also it kind of makes you a little nervous
Speaker 2: based on, you know, not the long drag record there.
Speaker 1: I kind of feel like I will ultimately end up
Speaker 1: drafting him ahead of ADP because at least on the
Speaker 1: power this is not his first time hitting thirty home runs,
Speaker 1: so I think it's reasonable to expect a healthy season
Speaker 1: is going to be another at thirty ish home run
Speaker 1: year from him. Whether or not he gets one hundred
Speaker 1: RBI in this lineup, who's to say whether or not
Speaker 1: he steals another ten basis? Who's to say to me? Like,
Speaker 1: the real question mark of should he be going where
Speaker 1: he's going is the batting average. And in the modern era,
Speaker 1: you can stomach a lower back If you're giving me
Speaker 1: thirty three home runs and nine stolen bases, I think
Speaker 1: it's a pretty with the upside of maybe a decent
Speaker 1: batting average too, building in some downside possibility as well.
Speaker 1: To me, that sounds worth it. He's ranked sixtieth in
Speaker 1: ECR right now, which is almost exactly on line with ADP.
Speaker 1: To me, like a late fifth round pick, I'll be
Speaker 1: I'll be happy to take him, I think with a
Speaker 1: with an early fifth round pick, maybe even like a
Speaker 1: late fourth depending on how my team looks in the
Speaker 1: early stages of a draft. I think that's good value.
Speaker 2: Would you rather have Brent Rooker or Tiascar Hernandez?
Speaker 1: I think I would rather have Rooker. Taskar is fifty
Speaker 1: fifth in ECR, so obviously they're they're very close. His
Speaker 1: ADP is slightly lower, though it's sixty three. My gut
Speaker 1: reaction to that the task obviously like thirty three home
Speaker 1: runs last year, twelve solen bases, so like a good
Speaker 1: a good comp there. We know, we know that lineup
Speaker 1: certainly looks a lot different than the Athletics lineup. My
Speaker 1: gut reaction when you ask me that question is Rooker.
Speaker 1: But I think they're probably very close. Yeah, that's why
Speaker 1: I asked, do you do you have a clear lean
Speaker 1: on that.
Speaker 2: No, that's why I asked that they're They're pretty similar,
Speaker 2: maybe a round a part, but I think I think
Speaker 2: I would go Rooker just because of the power potential.
Speaker 2: You know, you're potentially getting like twelve years.
Speaker 1: They're back to back at it at outfield. They're outfielder
Speaker 1: seventeen and outfielder eighteen.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you could get twelve more home runs
Speaker 2: from Rooker, which is worth it to you know.
Speaker 1: And by the way, that's if Rooker is outfield eligible.
Speaker 1: If he's not, very much changes as the calculus depends.
Speaker 1: You're in, all right, who's your other player you want to.
Speaker 2: So fellow Dodger to Oscar Hernandez, Roki Sasaki And really
Speaker 2: it's just the unknown here. Just I feel like there's
Speaker 2: a lot of like when his name was kind of
Speaker 2: first floated, we heard a lot of, Oh, he might
Speaker 2: need some time in the minors, like he's really really intriguing,
Speaker 2: like really young pitcher, really intriguing prospect, you know, and
Speaker 2: then he signs with the Dodgers, and all of a sudden,
Speaker 2: it's just like, Oh, he's penciled in. He's going to
Speaker 2: be awesome, and he's being drafted really aggressively. And I
Speaker 2: just think because of the unknown and because of how
Speaker 2: deep the Dodgers are, it makes it really difficult for
Speaker 2: me to rank because I don't want to be too
Speaker 2: aggressive on him because the Dodgers have the luxury of
Speaker 2: just like rolling out a six man rotation or just
Speaker 2: like sitting him down for a little while, at which point,
Speaker 2: you know, you already have the uncertainty of, like, this
Speaker 2: guy's never pitched in the in you know, the major
Speaker 2: leagues before. And I'm not disagreeing with all the you know,
Speaker 2: as you would say, smarter people than me who were
Speaker 2: projecting him to be really good, because he was really
Speaker 2: really good in another league. And so it's just like
Speaker 2: the unknown of like, we've never seen this guy pitch
Speaker 2: in the majors, and you know, I am confident he's
Speaker 2: gonna be good. But also he's on a really deep
Speaker 2: Dodgers team, and there's the potential that you drafted him
Speaker 2: aggressively and then does he just you know, he's in
Speaker 2: a six man rotation or he gets sent down for
Speaker 2: a month, and you just like you're just like stuck
Speaker 2: with that roster spot. And so I think I'm probably
Speaker 2: not gonna have a ton of him. You know, in Dynasty,
Speaker 2: he's the one on one, Like Dynasty rookie drafts, he's
Speaker 2: the one on one pick this year. But in in
Speaker 2: redraft leagues, he just makes me nervous going where he's going.
Speaker 2: It looks like I don't know if he pulled up
Speaker 2: the ADP, but it was like around like one twenty.
Speaker 1: It's just after one oh so it's.
Speaker 2: One o one. So I have him around one twenty one,
Speaker 2: twenty five and he's just at like one oh one.
Speaker 2: So I'm probably gonna have a.
Speaker 1: Ton of He's forty six amongst pictures in ranking and
Speaker 1: his ADP's one oh one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so that's scary for me. That's you know, you
Speaker 2: have to be really confident that he's really, really good
Speaker 2: and that the Dodgers aren't.
Speaker 1: Going to play the lips. Let me ask you this.
Speaker 1: Yamamoto pitched ninety innings last year. In those ninety innings,
Speaker 1: he had an ERA of exactly three. His whip was
Speaker 1: one eleven. He had one hundred and five strikeouts in
Speaker 1: those ninety innings, twenty two walks. In the innings we
Speaker 1: get from Rokie, I'm not going to have you guess
Speaker 1: how many innings he throws because it's the Dodgers and
Speaker 1: first year and all that. But in the innings we get,
Speaker 1: will he be better or worse than the innings we
Speaker 1: got from Yamamoto last year?
Speaker 2: I mean, I think Yama Moto is a better prospect,
Speaker 2: so I think worse.
Speaker 1: It's a high bar to clear. I'm not saying it's
Speaker 1: like an easy thing. I tend to agree that I
Speaker 1: think he'll be worse.
Speaker 2: My main thing is like, look at the Dodgers and like,
Speaker 2: you know, we've been complaining all year. Like earlier in
Speaker 2: the year on Slack, we talked about, like you know,
Speaker 2: doing some rapid reaction stuff for like players signing with teams,
Speaker 2: and I joked with Welsh, I was like, just do
Speaker 2: all of them for the Dodgers because seventy five percent
Speaker 2: of them will be right and you won't have to
Speaker 2: redo them, and lo and behold that was that was
Speaker 2: oddly accurate. But if you look at their pictures, Yamamoto, Snell, Glass, Now, Sasaki, Gonsolin,
Speaker 2: and that's not even including Clayton Kershaw and who you know,
Speaker 2: Apparently it's just going to be back with them, and
Speaker 2: you know, whatever happens with Bobby Miller, you get a.
Speaker 1: Lot of wins. Though, Like anytime these guys are on
Speaker 1: the mound, you're expecting them to get you a win,
Speaker 1: which isn't.
Speaker 2: Dustin May a really good baseball pitching prospect. He's like
Speaker 2: SP nine on the Dodgers, So like, if he struggles
Speaker 2: even a little bit, he's just not going to be
Speaker 2: in the start of rotation. And I feel like we're
Speaker 2: kind of taking that for granted right now.
Speaker 1: I think Roki's really good. I really like him as
Speaker 1: a prospect. I think he's on par with Yamamoto, who's better.
Speaker 1: I don't know, you know, Rokie's obviously young too, but
Speaker 1: I really like him. I don't know, I actually wouldn't
Speaker 1: I went in this conversation. It's funny. I'm kind of
Speaker 1: like thinking you through on the show. I started this
Speaker 1: conversation thinking, I think an ADP of one oh one
Speaker 1: is actually quite reasonable, and I'll probably want to draft
Speaker 1: him a lot as we're As we're talking about I'm
Speaker 1: actually thinking one of the one's actually pretty high. There's
Speaker 1: probably gonna be other players that I like better in
Speaker 1: that range, and somebody in my I think i'll want
Speaker 1: him sooner than your ranking of like that one twenty range.
Speaker 1: But I think there will be somebody in all of
Speaker 1: my leagues who wants to before, maybe maybe not drafting before,
Speaker 1: but it only takes one right person to be higher
Speaker 1: on him than me, and I get the feeling that'll happen.
Speaker 2: In a lot of Yeah, he's a sexy name. He's
Speaker 2: going to go around earlier than a lot of leagues.
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, so that's rookie. So those are our names.
Speaker 1: So just as a recap Jackson Holliday and Zach Netto,
Speaker 1: Shane McLanahan and Specter Strider and Brent Rooker and Rookie Sasaki.
Speaker 1: We got some listener picks here as well. A couple
Speaker 1: of hitters. The first one and like I think you
Speaker 1: and I both easily could have picked this name if
Speaker 1: it hadn't been suggested by a listener. It's a name
Speaker 1: that we talked about last year. As you know, we
Speaker 1: couldn't believe where he was going in some rounds, and
Speaker 1: you know, it's some drafts rather and then early on
Speaker 1: it looks like a really smart pick, and then went
Speaker 1: back to the usual. It's Mike Trout, best baseball player
Speaker 1: of you know, the last decade has been so many
Speaker 1: you know, Kelly in her kind of expert note on
Speaker 1: the site, starts off his little you know, expert note
Speaker 1: as Mike Trout has firmly landed in the what if
Speaker 1: category for both fantasy and real life baseball. That's a
Speaker 1: great way to put it. We saw in April of
Speaker 1: last year, Holy cow, ten home runs in a month,
Speaker 1: you know, also six dolen bases. You know, this is
Speaker 1: back to top five pick in fantasy drafts, Mike Trout.
Speaker 1: And then it, you know, reversed back the other way.
Speaker 1: Snip snap, snip snap of Okay, here he's heard again.
Speaker 1: We see it every year. You know, when was the
Speaker 1: last time he played anywhere close to a full season.
Speaker 1: It's been like six years at this point, so I
Speaker 1: think it's the perfect name to include here because when
Speaker 1: he's on, when he's on the field, I once again
Speaker 1: am pretty confident he's gonna be darn good. And yet
Speaker 1: you look at the games played totals going back, sorry
Speaker 1: from last year twenty nine eighty two, one hundred and
Speaker 1: nineteen thirty six fifty three, which was the COVID year obviously,
Speaker 1: and then twenty nineteen he played one hundred and thirty four.
Speaker 1: That's not even really like that's like twenty games, shy.
Speaker 1: It's last time he played one hundred and forty games
Speaker 1: in a season was twenty eighteen. I don't know how.
Speaker 1: I don't know how you can draft him, honestly, Like, like.
Speaker 2: In twenty nineteen, one hundred thirty four games, forty five
Speaker 2: home runs in one hundred and thirty four games. Now,
Speaker 2: granted that was a bounty ball year, but yeah.
Speaker 1: Yeah, true, he's ranked his ADP's ninety eight. He's amongst
Speaker 1: hitters seventy first in UCR. I just I can't. I
Speaker 1: can't do it there, I am, I'm not no part
Speaker 1: of me, like, not even like a little bit. Am
Speaker 1: I confident that he's going to play one hundred games
Speaker 1: this season? You just can't be. It's not like you
Speaker 1: get healthier as you get older, right, Like we both
Speaker 1: had surgery this year. We know the older you get,
Speaker 1: the more easy it is to get hurt, the harder
Speaker 1: is to bounce back from those injuries. He's not really
Speaker 1: at his early thirties anymore. He's like borderline in his
Speaker 1: mid thirties. I just don't see how you can possibly
Speaker 1: have any degree of confidence. Like like again adp. Ninety
Speaker 1: eight Sasaki's eightp. One oh one, I'd rather take the
Speaker 1: chance on Rokie different part.
Speaker 2: I was gonna ask you that I was gonna see
Speaker 2: you that take a chance.
Speaker 1: On him, because I just I don't want to be
Speaker 1: the guy with the headache of Mike Trout. And it's
Speaker 1: really sad to say, but that's that's my stance on it.
Speaker 2: I'm in. I'm doing it one more time. Give you
Speaker 2: one more year of Mike Trout, one last job, one
Speaker 2: more year. One of these years you're gonna be right.
Speaker 2: And I'm kind of a hypocrite because I'm in the
Speaker 2: opposite camp for Byron Buckston, who I'm just like I've
Speaker 2: been avoiding for a decade. I don't think they have
Speaker 2: similar ceilings. I think Mike Trout's ceiling is the best
Speaker 2: player in baseball. But and I talked to him, do
Speaker 2: you think that's still true? I mean no, no.
Speaker 1: I was gonna say, like, well, A, we haven't seen
Speaker 1: him be the best player in baseball in a while,
Speaker 1: and B his competition for that title is stronger than
Speaker 1: it's ever been, you know, between Otani and you know
Speaker 1: the had five other names that are the.
Speaker 2: Other thing from fantasy and protective is he doesn't run anymore,
Speaker 2: which was the real kind of like.
Speaker 1: He had six stolen bases in April of last year.
Speaker 2: Oh, that's right, he was running last year in April,
Speaker 2: because because we talked about the time had six the
Speaker 2: last four years combined, he did.
Speaker 1: He had exactly That's exactly what he had. He had
Speaker 1: as many stolen bases last year in just twenty nine
Speaker 1: games as he did the previous four years combined in
Speaker 1: some quick math, something like two hundred and eighty games.
Speaker 1: So it was kind of a return there. And he
Speaker 1: also had the worst at batting average of his career,
Speaker 1: which I don't think got talked about as much last
Speaker 1: year because his season ended so early.
Speaker 2: He expected numbers were it was expected to be better
Speaker 2: than what it was. There was some bad luck.
Speaker 1: There, that's true. The backup was under two hundred, so
Speaker 1: like clearly a huge outlier there, but it does it
Speaker 1: does stand out in looking at his stat you know,
Speaker 1: log year by year, just how much lower it was.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and now they're moving him to like right field,
Speaker 2: and they're like that'll fix everything, like we'll keep him
Speaker 2: healthy and right field. And I was like, sure, okay,
Speaker 2: we have to.
Speaker 1: Come up with a bet for this year on Mike
Speaker 1: Trout and I will gladly take the side of fading him.
Speaker 1: Oh not gladly. I'm not happy about it, but I
Speaker 1: will confidently take the side of fading him if you
Speaker 1: want to.
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, that's a good that's a good plug for
Speaker 2: the YouTube comments too, of a what are some ideas
Speaker 2: for a good Mike Trot bet for this year? Because
Speaker 2: I'm I'm doing it one more year. I'm in on
Speaker 2: Mike Trout. I'm going to do it one more time.
Speaker 2: I'm going down with the ship.
Speaker 1: Yes, please drop in the comments some ideas both for
Speaker 1: the bet and for what, you know, what we should
Speaker 1: be looking at should we be looking at, you know,
Speaker 1: certain stats. I would even do a bet on just
Speaker 1: games played. Does he hit X number? So let us
Speaker 1: know what you think we should do there. Wilson Cantare
Speaker 1: is the other name that was starting out by the listeners.
Speaker 1: You know, Cardinals catcher thirty two. He his eightp's one
Speaker 1: o four. So another guy kind of right in this
Speaker 1: range near Trout and Rokie.
Speaker 2: He is.
Speaker 1: Somebody. It looks like I keep checking the player news
Speaker 1: and all these guys just to make sure I didn't miss
Speaker 1: anything the last two weeks, like oh, he you know,
Speaker 1: got hurt or whatever. Started at first base for the
Speaker 1: Cardinals on Saturday in a spring training game. So I
Speaker 1: guess I'm gonna be splitting time there with Burlison first
Speaker 1: base and designated hitter. Still will be catcher eligible going
Speaker 1: into this year for for a leagues, which is almost
Speaker 1: certainly where you're going to be playing him. But that's
Speaker 1: always really appealing as a guy who's not, you know,
Speaker 1: taking that way and tear behind the plate. But who
Speaker 1: is eligible there? How are you ranking, contrarist? Do you
Speaker 1: agree with him as a guy who's very difficult for
Speaker 1: you to rank?
Speaker 2: Yeah? I thought this was a great pull from the
Speaker 2: YouTube comments last week. For what for what you said
Speaker 2: he's kind of every year, every year or every few years,
Speaker 2: there's like that that player who comes up who's catcher
Speaker 2: elible eligible but isn't catching and is playing every day.
Speaker 2: Because the catch with like catchers is one they need
Speaker 2: more time off than other players, and two just like
Speaker 2: the wear and tear of catching, just you know, your
Speaker 2: offensive production isn't as consistent. But if we can like
Speaker 2: Wilson Contreroz is a really good hitter, and if he's
Speaker 2: playing first base slash thh and not catching every day
Speaker 2: and it's playing every day, now we're talking in terms
Speaker 2: of you know, kind of like a cheat code for catcher.
Speaker 2: I don't want to overvalue it and just kind of
Speaker 2: like go too too crazy. But his what's his ADP?
Speaker 1: I think I think it's exciting. I mean he's hit
Speaker 1: over to sixty the last two years. In eighty four games.
Speaker 1: Last year he had fifteen home runs. If you're giving
Speaker 1: me more games and less wear and tearror at defensively
Speaker 1: that's and can still play him at catcher. That's really
Speaker 1: exciting to me. I think it's a great pick and
Speaker 1: I will be ranking him higher than ADP of one
Speaker 1: oh four. I can tell you that right now.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and going right around Mike Trout and Roki Sasaki.
Speaker 2: What a fascinating trio of players to to rank there?
Speaker 1: Where's he? Uh an ecr amongst catchers? I didn't pull
Speaker 1: that up. I pulled up. Now he is seventh, and
Speaker 1: he's behind William Contreras, ADLEI, Salvador Perez, Diez Raleigh, and
Speaker 1: Will Smith. So fair. I don't know that I would make.
Speaker 1: I want to make a case again for him being
Speaker 1: higher than where he is, but I think I'd be
Speaker 1: very happy to have him with you know, has that
Speaker 1: seventh catcher off the board? Is that is that about
Speaker 1: right for you?
Speaker 2: Yeah? If not a little bit higher, just kind of
Speaker 2: who would you knock down? I mean, I'm a big
Speaker 2: Will Smith guy, but I think I could I could
Speaker 2: justify putting him above Will Smith just because if we're
Speaker 2: just counting on playing time, I think the counting stats
Speaker 2: could go above Will Smith based on playing time alone.
Speaker 2: Cal Raley's a big power.
Speaker 1: I mean if he if he plays, I don't know
Speaker 1: what he's going to do. I mean he's in his
Speaker 1: third If Contreras plays one hundred and forty five hundred
Speaker 1: and fifty games this year at less taxing defensive position.
Speaker 1: Maybe it is more of what she could they were
Speaker 1: even given credence to. Maybe he should be like fourth
Speaker 1: on this list. Like that's it is. It's math right
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, Like these other these
Speaker 1: other catchers are not going to play, They are not
Speaker 1: going to get as many played appearances.
Speaker 2: As he is.
Speaker 1: Maybe a guy like Adley, Like if they call up
Speaker 1: you know, Pisioh and give Adley more time at DH
Speaker 1: they do like to have him play every day. Obviously,
Speaker 1: Salva Perez is somebody who's like you know, been very
Speaker 1: durable and played a ton. But like in general, a
Speaker 1: catcher is not going to play as much as a
Speaker 1: guy like Canterreraris might play this year. And that's that's
Speaker 1: It's simple.
Speaker 2: And also just like as a hitter, he also like
Speaker 2: if you if you look at the other names in
Speaker 2: the list, like a cal Raley, like you're sacrificing something
Speaker 2: because you're getting a lot of power from him, You're
Speaker 2: sacrifice in the average You're like, you're not really sacrificing
Speaker 2: Wilson contrast, because he is just a good hitter across
Speaker 2: the board.
Speaker 1: I play in a very long running two catcher league
Speaker 1: and I hate it because to catcher, leagues are the
Speaker 1: bane of my existence. Most of the time, I'll be
Speaker 1: really i think aggressively trying to get contrarasts. In a
Speaker 1: league like that, I think he's gonna be really valuable,
Speaker 1: and in a format like that where you have to
Speaker 1: go really deep at such a crappy position. So you
Speaker 1: have great, great listener picks, both Trout and Cocrais great
Speaker 1: options there. We don't really have anything else today. We
Speaker 1: don't have our usual you know, wrap up the show
Speaker 1: with X Y or Z, because we're certainly not going
Speaker 1: to do uh, you know, our key games to watch
Speaker 1: when we're still in spring training Pitts. But but yeah,
Speaker 1: two Star Pitcher contest in February. But thank you everybody
Speaker 1: for for tuning in and for all the comments last week.
Speaker 1: Please you'll continue to let us know what you want
Speaker 1: to hear from us. Next week's episode, we are doing
Speaker 1: an all blank team, so like an all sleeper team
Speaker 1: and all breakouts team and all first year you know,
Speaker 1: our second year player team. But we haven't landed on
Speaker 1: what we want to do the team yet. We think
Speaker 1: they could go a couple of different directions. So what
Speaker 1: we might do is do a couple of them and
Speaker 1: move kind of quicker through our picks for each of
Speaker 1: our all insert something here team, And we want you
Speaker 1: guys to let us know what you want us to hear.
Speaker 1: Should it be an all bust team. Should it be
Speaker 1: an all speed team and all power team and all
Speaker 1: well rounded player team and all al East team. I
Speaker 1: don't know. I'm just trying to throw out a different areas.
Speaker 2: All injury risk team like the Mike Trump Byron b.
Speaker 1: All injury risk team that's a good one, you know,
Speaker 1: or more standard class to kind of all break out,
Speaker 1: all sleeper. Whatever you guys want to hear, we will
Speaker 1: try and do a couple of them in next week's episode.
Speaker 1: So feel free to throw out a few different options
Speaker 1: if you have them, and feel free to let us
Speaker 1: know players if you make a suggestion on that team
Speaker 1: that you think should be on that team. We'll let
Speaker 1: you know if we agree when we make our picks
Speaker 1: here next week. So please please let us know we
Speaker 1: thought of today's episode. If there are any other players
Speaker 1: that you are really struggling to rank this year, let
Speaker 1: us know. We'll chat with you in the comments as well,
Speaker 1: but definitely tell us what kind of teams you want
Speaker 1: us to throw out next week. For Mayor, I'm ryan warmly. Also,
Speaker 1: I didn't say this all righty, but thank you very
Speaker 1: much to Kelly for filling in last week for me,
Speaker 1: where I was very much not in a position to
Speaker 1: be doing any kind of show in those first few
Speaker 1: days post surgery, so I really appreciate her filling in.
Speaker 1: She's gonna be on the show a ton this year,
Speaker 1: of course, as she always will be so for Kelly
Speaker 1: last week, for Mayor and myself this week. Thanks everybody
Speaker 1: for tuning in and we'll see again next time. Thanks
Speaker 1: for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast. If
Speaker 1: you love the show, the best freeway to support us
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