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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game?

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Speaker 2: Do us proud read enough? There were running a game.

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Speaker 1: So smooth, so sweet, slipid sixteen just glorious execution. Guys,

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Speaker 1: all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four thousand

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Speaker 1: percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that? Shop with mind bog buddy, And

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Speaker 3: that's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 2: Most dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 3: The love it's.

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Speaker 1: Left to of the wide eyed drill bibews, how old

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Speaker 1: earth that happens?

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Speaker 3: Hello and welcome back to Wonder Goal, the soccer betting

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Speaker 3: podcast from the Action Network. I'm Anthony Dbundo, joined as

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Speaker 3: always by BJ Coningham. Champions League Round of sixteen comes

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Speaker 3: to a close. Just as an aside, we are recording

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Speaker 3: this prior to the weekend matches, so we don't know

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Speaker 3: the status of Liverpool and Man City and Arsenal and Brentford.

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Speaker 3: With some obligations, we figured we'd get this out of

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Speaker 3: the way early.

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Speaker 2: But we do have.

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Speaker 3: Four really interesting Champions League matches, four that are still

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Speaker 3: pretty competitive at this point, all of them within one

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Speaker 3: goal of one another. So after this week, and the

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Speaker 3: Champions League was pretty dull. You know, you had Man

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Speaker 3: City kind of role. We saw Bayern not really have

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Speaker 3: to sweat their comeback very much after they scored twice

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Speaker 3: in the first half. You know, it was kind of

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Speaker 3: lacking drama. Well, this week there's going to be plenty

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Speaker 3: of drama, I think, and we've got four great matches

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Speaker 3: to talk about, and a lot of the similar bets

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Speaker 3: that we made in the first round of these matches

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Speaker 3: we're going to make again before we get into the

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Speaker 3: Champions League round of sixteen fixtures. As a reminder, wonder

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Speaker 3: Goal is presented by Bet three sixty five. Six five

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Speaker 3: and even parlays, and they don't stop there. Keep an

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Speaker 3: you must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana. Louisiana,

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Speaker 3: New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.

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Speaker 3: Gambling problem called went one hundred gambler or one hundred

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Speaker 3: bets off in Iowa terms and conditions, a plot BJ.

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Speaker 3: We have to start with your boys. By the time

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Speaker 3: you're listening to this pod, they could be top of

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Speaker 3: the table. Things go their way this weekend, but either way,

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Speaker 3: they need to rescue this tie for our tickets.

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Speaker 2: They do, and they're in a very similar spot to

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Speaker 2: what Byron just was.

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Speaker 3: And the betting odds kind of had it similar, where

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Speaker 3: the market expected them to lay about one an a

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Speaker 3: half one seven five. In that second leg, Byron had

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Speaker 3: really no trouble. They put up over three x g

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Speaker 3: Latzio was under a half. It was pretty much a

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Speaker 3: comfortable three zero win that was never truly in doubt.

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Speaker 3: Porto to me, and I said this before I was

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Speaker 3: debating with somebody like who's more likely to fall Arsenal

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Speaker 3: or Byron, And I actually said, look, Byron is more

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Speaker 3: likely to lose, but Byron's also much more likely to

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Speaker 3: make it look easy. And I think that's a similar

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Speaker 3: situation that we're dealing with now, where I think Arsenal

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Speaker 3: ultimately will get through here. You know, they're still minus

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Speaker 3: three hundred to do so, and so the betting market

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Speaker 3: likes them. But Porto has a way of playing and defending,

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Speaker 3: the defending pretty deep and you know, doing the dark

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Speaker 3: arts to turn this into a bit of a struggle

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Speaker 3: for Arsenal if they're not able to score early. And

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Speaker 3: I think the biggest thing we've seen with Arsenal maybe

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Speaker 3: in the last few months, in the last month or

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Speaker 3: so especially is they have been getting more early goals

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Speaker 3: and games and teams have had to come out to

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Speaker 3: play them a little more, and that's helped Arsenal look

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Speaker 3: more like early season Arsenal of last year and not

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Speaker 3: early season Arsenal this year when they were not creating

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Speaker 3: those consistent open play chances and breaking teams down at

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Speaker 3: the same rate that they have of late, where we've

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Speaker 3: seen the offense take a step forward, we've seen Socca's

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Speaker 3: production go up. So you're the Arsenal guy, m H.

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Speaker 3: What's the temperature check on the gunners right now? And

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Speaker 3: how do we feel about their chances of turning this?

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Speaker 1: You know, I feel pretty good about their chances getting

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Speaker 1: through here in the first meeting. You know, I don't

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Speaker 1: want to say it was anomaly, but it was also

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Speaker 1: the worst match that Arsenal was played this season by far,

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Speaker 1: no point zero nine x chief from open play. But

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Speaker 1: we have to remember the ball was only in play

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Speaker 1: for fifty one minutes. You know, Porto obviously just kept

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Speaker 1: fouling anytime Arsenal. You know, I went back and watched

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Speaker 1: the match. Anytime Arsenal had a break or like a

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Speaker 1: chance to open them up, they just fouled them. They

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Speaker 1: took the yellow cards, They just said whatever stopped anything

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Speaker 1: that Arsenal could do and said, you know what, our

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Speaker 1: only chance is really to just sit in this low block.

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Speaker 1: We can't let them beat us in transition. So and

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Speaker 1: they did it successfully. Credit to them. And then when

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Speaker 1: they were in their flow defensive block, they were really

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Speaker 1: good at denying passing lanes. So you know, credit to Porto.

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Speaker 1: But having that exact same game plan transitioning it now

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Speaker 1: to London where Arsenal is gonna have Gaby Haeyzus available.

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Speaker 1: Last match they played the Leander Trossart up top, and

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Speaker 1: what we know about what they do with Leandro Chossart

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Speaker 1: is they like to drop him and Oda guard very

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Speaker 1: deep and build up play. Martinelli and Socca more inverted

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Speaker 1: in more of like a four to two to two

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Speaker 1: to two, whereas now with Gabi Haezeus, you know it's

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Speaker 1: gonna be more of a traditional four three three in

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Speaker 1: my opinion. But one other thing that Porto did and

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Speaker 1: it's you know, you have to pick your battles right

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Speaker 1: like they said, Okay, we can either you know, try

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Speaker 1: to defend from open play, you know, sit in this

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Speaker 1: low defensive block. But the game plan was just like,

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Speaker 1: all right, let's get Arsenal into situations where it's just

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Speaker 1: dead ball situations and we think we're physical enough on

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Speaker 1: sepiece is to disrupt them. And it was funny because

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Speaker 1: every single time that Arsenal got a corner or a

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Speaker 1: set piece, it was just like a wrestling match inside

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Speaker 1: the box and they just you know, they threw crosses

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Speaker 1: in there and Saliba had one good opportunity, and you know,

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Speaker 1: outside of that, there really wasn't much that Arsenal got.

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Speaker 1: But playing that style and giving the best set piece

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Speaker 1: team in the Premier League constant opportunities, it is a

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Speaker 1: very dangerous game to play.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 1: Trossart had a back post shot that really could have

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Speaker 1: gone in off of a set piece. So Arsenal's going

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Speaker 1: to have their chances off set pieces from open play.

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Speaker 1: How many times have we gone through this Champions League

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Speaker 1: anthony where the underdog does really good in the first leg,

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Speaker 1: They're really good in the low defensive block at home,

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Speaker 1: and we say, man, they can repeat that in the

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Speaker 1: second leg. And I've fallen in the trap with thoughts.

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Speaker 1: You know, I've followed the trap with Leipzig. I've fallen

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Speaker 1: in the trap with Salzburg. And now we're in an

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Speaker 1: exact same situation where we have an elite offense and

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Speaker 1: Arsenal that is just continually putting up so many goals

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Speaker 1: against everybody, but this one match against Porto. So for me,

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Speaker 1: I think Arsenal's going to turn the tide here. But

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Speaker 1: I really do like the under in this match because

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Speaker 1: I you know, we had talked off air. I don't

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Speaker 1: really see a scenario of how this gets to four. Like,

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Speaker 1: I don't really see how Arsenal opens this match up

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Speaker 1: and like wins it for nothing. If anything, I think

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Speaker 1: Arsenal probably wins this two nothing, even maybe three nothing.

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Speaker 1: But you know, Porto, the two opportunities that they got

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Speaker 1: you know one, the one huge chance that they did

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Speaker 1: that put them over one expected goal. Saliba just fell

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Speaker 1: asleep and they you know hit the post and hit

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Speaker 1: the guy and went back, you know off and then

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Speaker 1: you know they obviously hit a screamer from outside the box.

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Speaker 1: So credit to them. But I think it's gonna be

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Speaker 1: very hard for Porto to repeat what they did in

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Speaker 1: the first leg. But it also sets up for a

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Speaker 1: very slow, grinded out style of match rather than very

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Speaker 1: up down. So I think the total is really it's

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Speaker 1: still high here at three, so like under three at

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Speaker 1: minus one twenty.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree.

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Speaker 3: I bet the under in the first leg. Feel good

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Speaker 3: about the under the second leg as well. I think

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Speaker 3: the biggest stat and takeaway and thing that does.

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Speaker 2: Scare me a little bit.

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Speaker 3: Arsenal had twenty nine passes into the final third in

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Speaker 3: their match against Porto in the first leg. They did

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Speaker 3: not complete a single pass into the penalty area. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: in the match. That is crazy for Arsenal, a team

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Speaker 3: who is second putting passes in the penalty area in

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Speaker 3: the preen this year and who has been a you know,

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Speaker 3: we talked about it, like they get the ball there

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Speaker 3: and then they weren't very efficient at turning the ball

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Speaker 3: into good shots, and they've improved that in the last

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Speaker 3: month or two. But final third touches Arsenal had one

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Speaker 3: hundred and nineteen in the attacking third Martinelli twenty five,

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Speaker 3: Sokka twenty five, average twenty Odegarde fifteen. They had a

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Speaker 3: total of twelve in the penalty area. So you're kind

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Speaker 3: of seeing, you know, the potential for Porto to try

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Speaker 3: to replicate that. I do agree, it's going to be

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Speaker 3: much harder. I think the two biggest things are the

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Speaker 3: ref really like, yeah, exact Porto. The ref called it

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Speaker 3: tight and Porto played to that officiating and got a

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Speaker 3: lot of calls a lot. There were a lot, I

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Speaker 3: mean in both ways, there were a lot of fouls period.

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Speaker 3: I don't think it was a poorly officiated game, but

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Speaker 3: it was a game that was officiated in a way

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Speaker 3: that would have made it better for Porto. And that's

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Speaker 3: where home field advantage really matters, because they might not

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Speaker 3: get that whistle. They might, you know, play more to

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Speaker 3: the Premier League style, the more physical style where you're

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Speaker 3: able to get away with more, and that would give

194
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Speaker 3: Arsenal advantage because so many times in that match, Puorto

195
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Speaker 3: would win the ball and then when Arsenal will look

196
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Speaker 3: to counter press, they would you know, press.

197
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Speaker 2: Them, make a fifty to fifty.

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Speaker 3: Challenge, and then a foul was called and now you know,

199
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Speaker 3: Porto can reset the ball, take thirty seconds off the

200
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Speaker 3: clock and kill the game and kill any flow and

201
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Speaker 3: momentum that the game had. So I think it enabled

202
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Speaker 3: Porto to shorten it. Now Porto is still going to

203
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Speaker 3: try the same thing. It doesn't change, and they are

204
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Speaker 3: a good set piece defense that helps them too. So

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Speaker 3: I think when you think about a team who really

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Speaker 3: is drawing kind of dead offensively here, I think Porto's

207
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Speaker 3: pretty close to drawing dead offensively at the Emirates, who

208
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Speaker 3: isn't going to come out of their shell until they're

209
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Speaker 3: down two goals, which could come early, and then we're

210
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Speaker 3: in big trouble for under anyway, though, And if it

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Speaker 3: comes later, then it's probably going to be Arsenal playing

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Speaker 3: their classic Arteta conservative possession, try to shut the game

213
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Speaker 3: down late. We're not going to see Arsenal pushing for

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Speaker 3: more numbers late, even like Byron was at the end.

215
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Speaker 3: So I think ultimately I agree with the under three

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Speaker 3: I looked at it. Both teams to score no as well,

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Speaker 3: but that was up at minus one forty five. So

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Speaker 3: I like three more. If Arsenal goes and puts four

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Speaker 3: on me, I'll tip my cap. I think it's not

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Speaker 3: a terrible idea to sprinkle. If you like under three,

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Speaker 3: maybe also take under one point twenty five first half,

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Speaker 3: just because there's a good chance that once it gets

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Speaker 3: to two, know, the game does change. Porto takes more risks,

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Speaker 3: they are more open in a transition and et cetera,

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Speaker 3: et cetera. Whereas if Arsenal is sluggish early, you're gonna

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Speaker 3: have that in the bank and then be very ahead

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Speaker 3: on your three, because I think, you know, there's a

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Speaker 3: there's a world where it's like one to half Arsenal

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Speaker 3: gets when coming out of half, and then all of

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Speaker 3: a sudden things get crazy. But either way, I like

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Speaker 3: the under here.

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Speaker 2: I agree.

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Speaker 3: Like I said, I'm betting a lot of the same

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Speaker 3: things I bet in the first leg of these matches.

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Speaker 3: We're getting an extra half goal essentially, and I think

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Speaker 3: Porto's attack is going to be much worse in this game.

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Speaker 3: So I think that more than an accounts for the

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Speaker 3: fact that you're probably looking at at best, Arsenal wins

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Speaker 3: this by three, So give me the under. We're gonna

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Speaker 3: agree there. We're gonna agree a lot on this show.

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Speaker 3: Next game probably the most disappointing of the four in

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Speaker 3: terms of excitement in the match that I was expecting.

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Speaker 3: I thought PSV Dortmann was going to be a lot better, uh,

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Speaker 3: And it was not a very good watch. The match

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Speaker 3: was quite stale. So many times in the match PSV

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Speaker 3: had a chance to break and transition, they played an

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Speaker 3: out ball to Irving Lozano, chokey Lozano, and the attack

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Speaker 3: went to go die. And he was so bad in

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Speaker 3: the game, and I think that was their biggest problem really,

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Speaker 3: and it was in fact, you know later in the game,

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Speaker 3: the last fifteen ish minutes when he came off, that

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Speaker 3: they played better. And I don't want to single it

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Speaker 3: out necessarily, but I thought he was quite poor in

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Speaker 3: the game, and I thought that was really a killer

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Speaker 3: for them. He had five miscontrols and he was dispossessed

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Speaker 3: three times. He did have a couple carries in the penaltaria,

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Speaker 3: but when you have five miscontrols and three times people dispossessed,

258
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Speaker 3: you That's not a great look overall in a game

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Speaker 3: where you are the primary outlet who's supposed to get

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Speaker 3: the ball into the penaltaria and he had a total

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Speaker 3: of four penalty touches in the area.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, not a great game for him.

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Speaker 3: And I don't think much is going to change in

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Speaker 3: the second matchup if you go down the line and

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Speaker 3: just like pull up all of the stats. Dortmann took

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Speaker 3: an early lead, it was kind of a fluky how

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Speaker 3: did he score that situation, and then otherwise it was

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Speaker 3: like pretty dead even, and I don't think the second

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Speaker 3: leg's necessarily going to be all that different.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. You know, Dortmund, when they got their

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Speaker 1: early goal, they kind of just started sitting off quite

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Speaker 1: a bit. And it's what we've seen from Dortmann is

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Speaker 1: that they're especially in these Champions League matches where they

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Speaker 1: are not They've recognized they're not that good out of possession,

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Speaker 1: so they can't press high, they can't try to disrupt

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Speaker 1: build up play, so they've sat very passive and that's

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Speaker 1: what they tried to do against PSV. What kept happening

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Speaker 1: is PSV, like you said, kept getting the ball out

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Speaker 1: wide and getting in three v two situations and they

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Speaker 1: would get into this chances where they'd almost complete across

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Speaker 1: and then they just couldn't do it. So for the match,

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Speaker 1: I mean, PSB had a field tilt of about sixty

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Speaker 1: seven percent, so they were basically living inside of Dortmund's

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Speaker 1: final third. And I'm not really sure what changes here

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Speaker 1: unless Dortmund feels the onus set like they need to

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Speaker 1: have the ball and they need to build up and

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Speaker 1: if they do that, that's gonna play right into PSV's

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Speaker 1: hands because they are an elite pressing team, an elite

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Speaker 1: team in transition. Also, Dartmann is gonna be without Slaughterbach,

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Speaker 1: who was suspended for the second leg, so that's obviously

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Speaker 1: key because he's their best center back. And what else

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Speaker 1: what also kept happening is because of the positioning of

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Speaker 1: Lozano desk and now all these guys out wide, is

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Speaker 1: the center backs just kept getting pulled apart and it

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00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:26,840
Speaker 1: was creating a lot of lanes for diong through the middle.

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Speaker 1: And if they can or continue and able to do that,

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Speaker 1: then they're gonna have a lot of success. They just

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Speaker 1: need to be able to complete that last cross. There

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00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:36,400
Speaker 1: were so many almost chances for PSV that don't show

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Speaker 1: up and expected goals. If they can just get a

301
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Speaker 1: chance on the end of those, they'll be much better.

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Speaker 1: But we've said this about dormand forever. They're a terrible

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Speaker 1: team out of possession. They've lowered their expected goal goals

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Speaker 1: allowed per match in Germany. That's wonderful, but they haven't

305
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Speaker 1: played anybody good for this for like what a two

306
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Speaker 1: month stretch. Now. Freiburg is the only team in the

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Speaker 1: top half of the table that they've played since they

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Speaker 1: played Leipstig around Christmas time. So and I mentioned this

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Speaker 1: on the last podcast, but in the four matches against Bayern, Leverkusen,

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Speaker 1: Stuttgart and Leipzig, they conceded a total twelve point three

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Speaker 1: expected goals. Like when they have to step up a competition,

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Speaker 1: they tend to struggle. And I understand in the first

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Speaker 1: leg that it bears out that they allowed under one

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Speaker 1: non penalty expected goal and that's wonderful. But again PSV

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Speaker 1: lived in their final third and they had so many

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Speaker 1: almost chances that they just couldn't get on the end

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Speaker 1: of that just don't show up and expected goals. So

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Speaker 1: I like PSV plus a half here at minus won

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Speaker 1: twenty two is currently about three six five, which I

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Speaker 1: think is a fantastic price. Projected Dortmund at plus one

321
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Speaker 1: forty for the second leg, especially that slaughtererback. It looks

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Speaker 1: like Cobal will be back in goal for Dortmund, which

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Speaker 1: is a big help for them because Meyer is a

324
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Speaker 1: is a terrible backup. But man, at some point in

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Speaker 1: this match, somebody's got to go for it, or maybe

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Speaker 1: they'll just play it out into zero zero drawl. You

327
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Speaker 1: don't have too early, nobody has too early, but at

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Speaker 1: some point and.

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Speaker 2: It all favors PSV. I think to keep put this

330
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Speaker 2: way pretty tight.

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Speaker 1: If Dormant is playing from behind, this match changes considerably

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Speaker 1: and PSV will be a live team to really pile

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Speaker 1: on the goals here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I think the most instructive thing to me is just,

336
00:16:18,880 --> 00:16:20,920
Speaker 3: you know, pass completion rate can be games. They dependent

337
00:16:20,920 --> 00:16:22,360
Speaker 3: a little bit, but you kind of mentioned it right.

338
00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:26,440
Speaker 3: Dortmund averages eighty three percent completion rate in the Bundesliga,

339
00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:28,240
Speaker 3: and that's a league with a lot of pressing. They're

340
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Speaker 3: one of the most accurate possession teams in the in

341
00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:32,280
Speaker 3: the you know, passing the ball around, keeping the ball

342
00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:35,000
Speaker 3: and build up. They completed just seventy four percent of

343
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Speaker 3: their passes in the first like at PSV, which is

344
00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:40,480
Speaker 3: really bad given you know they'd be used to a

345
00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:42,160
Speaker 3: team that are going to press them. This is they

346
00:16:42,200 --> 00:16:44,520
Speaker 3: play in Germany. They play a very German esque team

347
00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:47,000
Speaker 3: in PSV here and on the other side of it,

348
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Speaker 3: yes they don't press as much, but they're still allowing

349
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Speaker 3: the second lowest pass completion.

350
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Speaker 2: Rate in the league. So there's still a team.

351
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Speaker 3: That wants to make it for Netek and team that

352
00:16:55,760 --> 00:16:58,240
Speaker 3: wants to jump passes and cut stuff off and take

353
00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:00,600
Speaker 3: chances out of possession to cut off your build up.

354
00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:03,880
Speaker 3: And PSV was able to complete north of eighty percent.

355
00:17:04,359 --> 00:17:07,840
Speaker 3: So it was PSV system that won out ultimately. And

356
00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:10,040
Speaker 3: that's what you mentioned with the field tilt, Like even

357
00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:13,439
Speaker 3: before the goal, PSV didn't take a ton of the shots,

358
00:17:13,480 --> 00:17:15,280
Speaker 3: but you know, Dorman was getting a lot of like

359
00:17:15,320 --> 00:17:19,359
Speaker 3: low quality not even call them half chances until Malin

360
00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:21,520
Speaker 3: had that great moment. And Malin was really the entire

361
00:17:21,560 --> 00:17:24,200
Speaker 3: attack in the match for Dorman. He took five shots

362
00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:26,280
Speaker 3: and was pretty much their whole team in that game.

363
00:17:26,320 --> 00:17:29,200
Speaker 3: And then the penalty was soft for sure. I didn't

364
00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:32,280
Speaker 3: really think it was, but either way, it's a goal

365
00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:36,000
Speaker 3: that had been coming, given just the control that PSV

366
00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:37,920
Speaker 3: had put on Dorman, the pressure they put them under.

367
00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:40,320
Speaker 3: So I like PSV plus a half. There's a minus

368
00:17:40,359 --> 00:17:42,480
Speaker 3: one thirty out there. I think you got even better

369
00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:47,120
Speaker 3: minus one twenty five. I really, I really think that

370
00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:49,840
Speaker 3: I have PSV a dog by about a quarter goal.

371
00:17:50,119 --> 00:17:52,200
Speaker 3: I had them favored by about a little over a

372
00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:55,280
Speaker 3: quarter at home. I did dowgrade them a touch and

373
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Speaker 3: now I have them about a quarter goal worse. So

374
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Speaker 3: you give me a half, I'm going to take pretty

375
00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:00,199
Speaker 3: much where I'm at this.

376
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Speaker 1: Yep, me too. I mean, like I said, I have

377
00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:06,600
Speaker 1: Doorvin a plus one forty, So definitely some value here

378
00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:07,600
Speaker 1: on PSV.

379
00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:13,480
Speaker 3: Inter and Atletico Madrid, where it's kind of groundhog day

380
00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:16,720
Speaker 3: again from three weeks ago, where when we talked about

381
00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:18,960
Speaker 3: on the pod, Inter was plus one oh five one

382
00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:22,280
Speaker 3: ten opener. They closed and ran all the way out

383
00:18:22,320 --> 00:18:25,080
Speaker 3: to minus one sixty on the freeway money line and

384
00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:28,520
Speaker 3: then completely destroyed Atletico in the first lag. It was

385
00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:32,560
Speaker 3: probably the most surprisingly uncompetitive matchup of the first round,

386
00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:35,480
Speaker 3: and given like what we went thinking going in and

387
00:18:35,600 --> 00:18:39,680
Speaker 3: what ended up actually being because Inter we talked about

388
00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:42,639
Speaker 3: their versatility we talked about their ability to play and

389
00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:46,080
Speaker 3: beat different styles. I was on full display because Atletic

390
00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:50,840
Speaker 3: came out and went full Diego Simoni terrorism ball and

391
00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:54,200
Speaker 3: they created almost nothing until after they were down a goal.

392
00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:57,320
Speaker 3: They held on for their lives.

393
00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:59,320
Speaker 2: And almost got there. We almost stole a result.

394
00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:04,320
Speaker 3: But ultimately intergainst their goal. They create over two and

395
00:19:04,359 --> 00:19:07,160
Speaker 3: a half XG. They win the match, get the lead,

396
00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:09,040
Speaker 3: and now they look to protect it. And now we're

397
00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:12,160
Speaker 3: seeing the market again take Inter money. So they opened

398
00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:14,119
Speaker 3: right around minus one fifteen on the draw, No bet

399
00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:16,399
Speaker 3: I threw it in the app. I like them again,

400
00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:18,960
Speaker 3: They're out to minus one thirty. Now I still like them,

401
00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:20,400
Speaker 3: but we're getting to the point where I would stop

402
00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:23,280
Speaker 3: playing them. I really think that Inter's ability to play

403
00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:25,320
Speaker 3: on the break here as Atletico eventually has to start

404
00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:28,960
Speaker 3: taking more chances, is what turns this match. The first match,

405
00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:33,919
Speaker 3: twenty six penalty area touches for Inter Milan thirteen for

406
00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:37,880
Speaker 3: ed Letti, double them on, doubled up possession, dominated the

407
00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:41,200
Speaker 3: midfield exchanges like it was an uncompetitive match.

408
00:19:41,280 --> 00:19:45,560
Speaker 1: Really, yeah, definitely. And you know what's interesting about that

409
00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:50,400
Speaker 1: first match is you would have thought that Athletico would

410
00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:52,320
Speaker 1: come out and they would just play low defensive block

411
00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:54,159
Speaker 1: and they'd say, here, Inter have the ball, We're just

412
00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:56,919
Speaker 1: gonna sit deep and Murders going to try to absorb

413
00:19:56,960 --> 00:19:59,320
Speaker 1: it and everything, and they did for stretches. But if

414
00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:02,360
Speaker 1: you look at how Inter created all of their huge chances,

415
00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:05,120
Speaker 1: it was in transition moments when they turned them over

416
00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:11,080
Speaker 1: from the mid block. And what happened towards the second

417
00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:14,479
Speaker 1: half when they really started pumping up the pressure, Tam

418
00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:17,760
Speaker 1: got hurt a halftime, so they bring our Natovich and

419
00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:21,200
Speaker 1: he missed two huge chances that could have put them

420
00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:23,320
Speaker 1: up and then finally converted the last one to put

421
00:20:23,359 --> 00:20:26,119
Speaker 1: them up on nothing. Taram is healthy. Now he's going

422
00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:28,040
Speaker 1: to play in this match. He came off the bench

423
00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:31,320
Speaker 1: against Genoa on Monday, you know, Robbster recording this before

424
00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:33,960
Speaker 1: their match against Bologna this weekend, so we'll see if

425
00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:37,800
Speaker 1: he plays there. But another thing that was really alarming is,

426
00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:42,160
Speaker 1: you know, historically what Diego Simoni does with his defensive

427
00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:44,119
Speaker 1: block is he says, in which what a lot of

428
00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:47,560
Speaker 1: event defensive blocks do is we're cutting off the central

429
00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:48,879
Speaker 1: parts of the pitch. You can have the ball and

430
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:51,040
Speaker 1: wide areas. We're just gonna defend your crosses like we

431
00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:54,199
Speaker 1: think we're good enough to defend those. They did a

432
00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:58,439
Speaker 1: horrible job defending crosses in the first leg. Yep, I

433
00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:01,480
Speaker 1: know it doesn't sound like a lot, but Inter completed

434
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:05,920
Speaker 1: five crosses into Athletic coost penalty area. For context, elite

435
00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:09,280
Speaker 1: crossing teams will average about completing about two crosses in

436
00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:12,560
Speaker 1: their penalty area. So Athletico basically doubled what elite teams

437
00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:16,440
Speaker 1: are excuse me, Inter basically doubled what elite teams actually do.

438
00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:20,200
Speaker 1: So Athletico let them have the ball in wide areas

439
00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:23,440
Speaker 1: and they just kept pumping in those crosses and a

440
00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 1: couple of them came in transition as well. So this

441
00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:30,080
Speaker 1: match sets up perfectly because, like you said, Inter is

442
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:34,000
Speaker 1: a very versatile team tactically, but how really, where they

443
00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:36,439
Speaker 1: are at their best is in a position like this,

444
00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:39,160
Speaker 1: where they are playing with the lead, they don't need

445
00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:41,000
Speaker 1: to have the ball and they can just burn you

446
00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:44,119
Speaker 1: time and time and time again in transition, and that

447
00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:47,400
Speaker 1: is exactly what they are going to do here at

448
00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:50,520
Speaker 1: in Madrid. So I agree with you. I played Inter

449
00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:55,000
Speaker 1: Toronto bett minus one thirty today on Thursday. We'll see

450
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:59,120
Speaker 1: where this line goes. I understand that they're up a goal,

451
00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:02,760
Speaker 1: but they are not the type of team like Athleticove.

452
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:04,840
Speaker 1: They were up a goal to just try and kill

453
00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:06,600
Speaker 1: this match off and not even try to attack. No

454
00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:10,119
Speaker 1: tram and then Latro Martinez are really going to be

455
00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:14,120
Speaker 1: dangerous on the break here. So yeah, I love Inter here.

456
00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:16,320
Speaker 1: They should dominate this leg just like they did the

457
00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:16,959
Speaker 1: first one.

458
00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:18,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's kind of I mean, it's kind of similar

459
00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:21,359
Speaker 3: to what happened the intertook a lead in.

460
00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:23,000
Speaker 2: Both of their first legs last year.

461
00:22:23,040 --> 00:22:24,679
Speaker 3: They beat Porto at home and then they kind of

462
00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:27,000
Speaker 3: held on for dear life in the second leg, Like

463
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:29,240
Speaker 3: Wenana was big for them in goal. But the second

464
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:31,440
Speaker 3: match I think is more intuitive and it's you know,

465
00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:33,280
Speaker 3: they took the lead and then the second leg ended

466
00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:36,000
Speaker 3: up being this like chaotic back and forth match with Benfica.

467
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:39,199
Speaker 3: Now Benfica Atletico Madrid are very different tactically, but you

468
00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:42,480
Speaker 3: saw in that match how good Inter can be and

469
00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:44,639
Speaker 3: on the break with the lead already, and they kind

470
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:46,119
Speaker 3: of did it to Milan and the second leg of

471
00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 3: the like they were able to get leads and then

472
00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:51,080
Speaker 3: play with leads this entire second leg, in all of

473
00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:54,040
Speaker 3: their matches and we saw just how affected they can

474
00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:56,359
Speaker 3: be in that role. So they have experience in that

475
00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:58,920
Speaker 3: role too, which I think helps, you know, given that

476
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 3: they've just done this run just last year, very chalky

477
00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:06,720
Speaker 3: opening stage. So far, the all four of the favorites

478
00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:09,879
Speaker 3: got through all of them pretty comfortably, except for Real Madrid,

479
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:12,600
Speaker 3: which was a little dicier at the end. It does

480
00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 3: create an interesting situation on the odds board where still

481
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 3: Arsenal and Inter Milan are priced behind Real Madrid and Bayern.

482
00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 3: And look, I know that neither have one technically and

483
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:24,320
Speaker 3: advanced in their group, but both are over minus three

484
00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:26,480
Speaker 3: hundred to do so I still think there's time to

485
00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:28,880
Speaker 3: hop on the bandwagon for Arsenal and Inter And then

486
00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:32,040
Speaker 3: Friday is going to be the draw, where again we

487
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:36,800
Speaker 3: have six, you know, I will say five, five teams

488
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:40,320
Speaker 3: who I think are clear of the rest, whether it's City,

489
00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:43,560
Speaker 3: Real Madrid, Buyern, Arsenal, Inter. Assuming all five go through,

490
00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:47,120
Speaker 3: those are your five favorites, there's going to be four matchups,

491
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:49,000
Speaker 3: which means one of them is going to at least

492
00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:51,080
Speaker 3: one of them, maybe two are going to get drawn

493
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:53,920
Speaker 3: against one another. And that's where you know this tournament's

494
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 3: going to really start to turn. Notice I didn't mention

495
00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:59,280
Speaker 3: Barsa in those teams because I really don't think they are.

496
00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 3: And now with his injury situation with Pedri and Deyong,

497
00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:06,520
Speaker 3: they're in a weird spot. Napoli took some money off

498
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:09,280
Speaker 3: of that injury news. Barsa opened around minus one forty

499
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:12,080
Speaker 3: five in the second leg against Napoli. They got bet

500
00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:14,080
Speaker 3: down too about minus one twenty now, which is where

501
00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:16,720
Speaker 3: it is. Napoli was so bad in the first leg

502
00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:19,720
Speaker 3: for the majority of it. But that's Victor Osaman right,

503
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:22,199
Speaker 3: Like he bullies a defender, makes a nice turn, boots

504
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:25,399
Speaker 3: it in, and that's Lewandowsky, same thing. Like Barca was

505
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:28,240
Speaker 3: clearly better than Napoli in the midfield exchanges, like controlled

506
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 3: the flow of the game, but it was an individual

507
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:34,080
Speaker 3: moment from Lewandowsky that turned it. An individual moment from

508
00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:36,760
Speaker 3: Osaman that turned it back kind of got us to

509
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:38,879
Speaker 3: a stalemate. This is the one match where I really,

510
00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:40,440
Speaker 3: you know, I had the over in the first leg,

511
00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:42,760
Speaker 3: was on the wrong side, it didn't deserve to go over.

512
00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 3: But I don't really have a strong read on the

513
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:49,200
Speaker 3: second one because I think Barsa's a little cheap at

514
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:52,400
Speaker 3: home here only minus one twenty, but their injury situation

515
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:55,560
Speaker 3: in the midfield now has them very vulnerable. Like you know,

516
00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:59,920
Speaker 3: Gundawan probably starts Oorio Romeyu. Like it's a weird situ

517
00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:02,200
Speaker 3: that bars is dealing within their midfield with no Pedri,

518
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 3: no Gavi, potentially no Diyong. So where do you come

519
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:07,239
Speaker 3: down this one? I don't know.

520
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:09,960
Speaker 1: Like I threw my hands up for the first meeting

521
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:11,560
Speaker 1: and I was just like, I don't really know how

522
00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:14,200
Speaker 1: this one's going to play out. And after watching the

523
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:16,399
Speaker 1: first meeting, I didn't. I feel like I didn't really

524
00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 1: learn much quite frankly, and like you said, a couple

525
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:21,960
Speaker 1: of good individual moments. Napley didn't take a shot for

526
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:26,000
Speaker 1: the entire first half, which is kind of concerning. But yeah,

527
00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:29,439
Speaker 1: without Pedrie and without Deong, well then you're losing control

528
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:32,760
Speaker 1: in the midfield, and that's what ultimately what Shabi wants.

529
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:35,520
Speaker 1: You know, Deong is so good at reading the temperament

530
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:37,800
Speaker 1: of a match and being able to play to the

531
00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:40,760
Speaker 1: style and speed that Barcelona really wants to play to

532
00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:44,080
Speaker 1: without him being the conductor in there. Like you said,

533
00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:47,480
Speaker 1: Gundagan is not really the deep line I'm gonna go

534
00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:49,920
Speaker 1: to the back line and you know, help build out.

535
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:52,639
Speaker 1: Pedri could be that guy as well. So it's just

536
00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:55,600
Speaker 1: a very very odd situation. You know. I have Barcelona

537
00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 1: projected at minus one twenty three in this total at

538
00:25:57,760 --> 00:25:59,920
Speaker 1: two point eight seven, so I'm like right in line

539
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:03,080
Speaker 1: with where the market is right now. And you know,

540
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:06,760
Speaker 1: Napoli did beat Events over the weekend. In the midweek,

541
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:09,679
Speaker 1: they beat to Swallow, so they're starting to get some

542
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:12,800
Speaker 1: of the positive aggression that they were getting back. But

543
00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:16,240
Speaker 1: they're due for at least in Syria A. But yeah,

544
00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:19,679
Speaker 1: I just I'm at a loss for words, and I'm

545
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:23,320
Speaker 1: at a loss for of of what's actually gonna happen

546
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:25,600
Speaker 1: in this match. So I think this is the easiest

547
00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:28,679
Speaker 1: match to just pass on the board. And I don't

548
00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:32,120
Speaker 1: I don't think either of these teams have a shot

549
00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:34,359
Speaker 1: if they play, like you said, one of the top

550
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:38,719
Speaker 1: four or five in the next round, especially if you know,

551
00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:44,960
Speaker 1: if Barcelona gets paired against a Arsenal City or Inter

552
00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:47,960
Speaker 1: they are completely toasted against the other teams, they might

553
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 1: have somewhat of a shot.

554
00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:51,360
Speaker 2: I think they're done against Bars against Byron too.

555
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:53,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, we've seen, but we've seen Bayron bully them, the

556
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:56,560
Speaker 3: same Byron team bully that same Barsa team so many times.

557
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 2: Now.

558
00:26:57,160 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, Real Madrid, like Real Madrid, the way they play

559
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:02,480
Speaker 3: like they just let you have a chance no matter

560
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:04,560
Speaker 3: who you are, Like you're gonna have a go.

561
00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:06,880
Speaker 1: That's not that good and you're probably.

562
00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 2: Gonna lose because that's what they do.

563
00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:09,840
Speaker 3: They just like out they beat you in the moments,

564
00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:11,919
Speaker 3: but like you're gonna get your day, Like you're not

565
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:15,600
Speaker 3: gonna get played off the park in a way where

566
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:20,080
Speaker 3: you're like suffocated. It's it's like an old story that

567
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:22,960
Speaker 3: like I think it was. Nick Curious was talking about

568
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:26,960
Speaker 3: playing like Roger Fetter versus playing Novak Djokovic, and it's

569
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:31,840
Speaker 3: like he would always much rather play Djokovic because Roger,

570
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:33,720
Speaker 3: because Roger's gonna let you get your shots and then

571
00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:35,720
Speaker 3: he's just gonna hit amazing shots where you're just like, oh,

572
00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:36,440
Speaker 3: I have no chance.

573
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:39,960
Speaker 2: Fine, But when you play Novak.

574
00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:42,360
Speaker 3: It's like you're getting strangled to death the whole match

575
00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:44,879
Speaker 3: and it's not really a fun experience. That's kind of

576
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:46,880
Speaker 3: the difference between city and real And so I think

577
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:50,919
Speaker 3: Bartsia could give reality game, although this current version, like

578
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:54,239
Speaker 3: their transition defense is being a total siev going up

579
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:56,560
Speaker 3: against Real Madrid, like it could could be ugly.

580
00:27:57,280 --> 00:27:59,640
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, the funny thing, and I mentioned this about

581
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:02,719
Speaker 1: realm before, but they are one of the most unique

582
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:06,359
Speaker 1: teams in Europe and the fact that they don't really

583
00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:11,400
Speaker 1: have like a clear, like defined tactical plan. And I'm

584
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:14,800
Speaker 1: not saying that's a bad thing, intense because you know,

585
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:17,760
Speaker 1: they're of kind of the old school nature of you know,

586
00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 1: in the past, like a lot of these old school teams,

587
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:23,800
Speaker 1: even like Sir Alex Ferguson's Manchester United, like didn't have

588
00:28:23,880 --> 00:28:26,080
Speaker 1: these like Pep Gorriola type tactics. It was kind of

589
00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:28,960
Speaker 1: just like, we have better players than you, so this

590
00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:30,760
Speaker 1: is kind of the general plan we're going to go

591
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:33,480
Speaker 1: with and then that's kind of it. So and that's

592
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 1: kind of what Real Madrid does quite frankly. And they're

593
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:40,040
Speaker 1: obviously really good in transition, but what's really clear and

594
00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:42,960
Speaker 1: we haven't really seen Real Madrid tested in this aspect.

595
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:45,640
Speaker 1: They did a little bit against Leipzig, but when they

596
00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:49,040
Speaker 1: are forced to actually press you and try to disrupt

597
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 1: you and cause problems, they are so so bad at

598
00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 1: doing that. So if they have to play one of

599
00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:59,040
Speaker 1: these teams and they fall behind, they are in massive trouble.

600
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:02,240
Speaker 2: So famous last words, yeah, famous last words.

601
00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:04,400
Speaker 1: They're gonna lean every single match. They're going to just

602
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:07,160
Speaker 1: be able to play in transition and venetious and belling.

603
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:08,959
Speaker 3: Well, they'll just get their comebacks whenever they I mean,

604
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:11,720
Speaker 3: they've done it before. Two years ago was the famous comebacks.

605
00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:14,080
Speaker 3: Yeah against PSG and Real.

606
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 1: Yep, we'll see. PSG is another interesting team that we'll

607
00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 1: get to in the next rounds. But yeah, I'm actually

608
00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:24,040
Speaker 1: way more. I'm really excited for the next straw. I

609
00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 1: hope it gets some good match.

610
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:26,440
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, well we get the full draw, right, we'll

611
00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:28,680
Speaker 3: get the Europa League two and we'll get the semifinals,

612
00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:31,560
Speaker 3: so we'll have a we'll have the bracket finally. And yeah,

613
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:34,960
Speaker 3: it kind of just feels like to me that the

614
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 3: Barston Napoli winner and the PSV Dortmund winner are the

615
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 3: clear like, these are the two teams we hope to play.

616
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 3: So they'll probably get drawn against each other, but that

617
00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:48,480
Speaker 3: would be the two and and uh, you know PSG,

618
00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:50,800
Speaker 3: you know, just because they haven't bape it's kind of scary.

619
00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 1: They're scary.

620
00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:54,480
Speaker 3: And then Badle healthy, like If and Baal are healthy,

621
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:56,600
Speaker 3: Like nobody actually wants to play them even though they're

622
00:29:56,600 --> 00:30:00,000
Speaker 3: not that good. So like I could easily see ps

623
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 3: she pick off a Buyern even an inter, you know,

624
00:30:04,520 --> 00:30:07,560
Speaker 3: in two legs. So let's move on to Europa League

625
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:11,120
Speaker 3: Fun day today. A lot of overs and you both

626
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:13,480
Speaker 3: bet a lot of overs and they a lot of

627
00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:16,959
Speaker 3: them hit and we got one bet immediately that kind

628
00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:17,920
Speaker 3: of jumped off the board to me.

629
00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:21,160
Speaker 2: I'll start with Liverpool's sparked a Prague. Both teams to.

630
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 3: Score yes minus one o two. Clop rotated through a

631
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:27,240
Speaker 3: bunch of different teams, and it was very evident that

632
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:30,800
Speaker 3: the rotated version of Liverpool is much closer to early

633
00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:34,240
Speaker 3: vintage era Clop when they were just we're just gonna

634
00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 3: outscore you because we have better players and we're not

635
00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 3: going to actually defend because Prague could have had two

636
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 3: or three and they really should have in that match,

637
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:43,520
Speaker 3: and they're coming into this down five to one on aggregate.

638
00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:45,800
Speaker 3: Liverpool is going to be coming off this city match

639
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 3: with a four goal lead at home. They're not going

640
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:49,760
Speaker 3: to actually go for it. They're going to probably rotate

641
00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:52,800
Speaker 3: everybody again. They'll still get their goals, but they're also

642
00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 3: probably gonna concede one. It'll be like a two to one,

643
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 3: three to one, two two, three to two kind of game,

644
00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:59,960
Speaker 3: I think, and Liverpool cruises to thee to the quarter final,

645
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:02,000
Speaker 3: but they're going to concede along one the way. So

646
00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:04,000
Speaker 3: both teams to score yes at minus one o two.

647
00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:06,600
Speaker 3: Crazy number to me. I know, it's like Prog's on

648
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:08,400
Speaker 3: the road, But we just saw this spart of PROG

649
00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:11,720
Speaker 3: team go toe to toe with Galatasarai, a team who

650
00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:15,240
Speaker 3: is just a better like a poor man's Liverpool in

651
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:16,960
Speaker 3: the way they're set up to play. They do it

652
00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:20,520
Speaker 3: with much worse midfielders and defenders, and Prague went back

653
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 3: and forth with them, and they went back and forth

654
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:25,160
Speaker 3: Liverpool today in a matchup that really should have plenty

655
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:27,160
Speaker 3: of goals. Again, so both teams to score yes minus

656
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:29,280
Speaker 3: one o two jumped off the board immediately at me.

657
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 2: For the second leg.

658
00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:33,160
Speaker 1: There, yeah, I like in another a you know what,

659
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 1: I'll stick with Prague Slavia Prague plus a half against Acemalan.

660
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:40,760
Speaker 1: They're obviously down four to two on aggregate. Unfortunately, they

661
00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:43,520
Speaker 1: were playing pretty well against Ace Milan at the San

662
00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:45,800
Speaker 1: zero and then they got a red card and everything

663
00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 1: kind of fell apart. But you know, if you take

664
00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:51,280
Speaker 1: that first minutes, those first you know, twenty or so minutes,

665
00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:55,200
Speaker 1: they were living inside of a Cemalan's final third. You know,

666
00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 1: the momentum chart was actually in their favor up until

667
00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:01,320
Speaker 1: that red card. And they are they're a really, really

668
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 1: good team. They're a team that pummeled Roma during the

669
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:06,640
Speaker 1: group stage. Now they're gonna be down two goals and aggregate.

670
00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:11,200
Speaker 1: We've just saw this with Acey Milan. They pumped Ren

671
00:32:12,160 --> 00:32:15,760
Speaker 1: in the knockout rounds, beat them three nothing, and then

672
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 1: we saw this return leg where it just became this

673
00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:21,960
Speaker 1: incredibly chaotic back and forth of type match. So you

674
00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:25,160
Speaker 1: could see some may I wouldn't expect it, but there

675
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:28,840
Speaker 1: might be some squad rotation coming in here. You know,

676
00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:31,400
Speaker 1: in that second leg against Ren, they conceded three expected goals.

677
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 1: So it's a very different type of ac Milan team

678
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:38,120
Speaker 1: that you know, as we've said, has been frauds for

679
00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 1: a long time, but just a different mentality. When you're

680
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:43,520
Speaker 1: you know, up too goals, they're probably gonna play very

681
00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:47,160
Speaker 1: very passively and not really try as hard to beat

682
00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:48,880
Speaker 1: them on the break. So I mean Asimalan sitting at

683
00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:51,640
Speaker 1: minus one twenty right now, I think that's that's a

684
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:54,000
Speaker 1: crazy price. So I love Prague plus a half at

685
00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:54,520
Speaker 1: even money.

686
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:56,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's kind of like, you know, last week, I

687
00:32:56,920 --> 00:32:59,360
Speaker 3: thought to myself, Okay, we've seen this Milan team do

688
00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 3: this before where they get the lead and they just

689
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:05,760
Speaker 3: sit on it. They're complete inability to slow down ren

690
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,719
Speaker 3: when playing with the lead in the first matchup when

691
00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:11,680
Speaker 3: they had a three goal aggregate lead. Gives me pause

692
00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:15,200
Speaker 3: as to like whether they can do that against Slaviya Prog.

693
00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:17,080
Speaker 2: Because I agree, I think they're going to be flawed.

694
00:33:17,680 --> 00:33:20,360
Speaker 3: I'm holding a PROG to advance ticket that in some

695
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 3: deep shit, so I don't know if I want to

696
00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:24,640
Speaker 3: add more. But you know, it's like plus two sixty,

697
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:26,280
Speaker 3: and I was feeling pretty good, like you said, like

698
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:28,200
Speaker 3: they were right there. They had a great chance right

699
00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:30,760
Speaker 3: before the red card, give away the red and then

700
00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:32,719
Speaker 3: just stop defending for twenty minutes. They were down three

701
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:34,600
Speaker 3: to one, fought back into it at three to two.

702
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 3: I was like, oh, they got a shot, and then

703
00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:38,480
Speaker 3: four to two. They're probably drawing dead here.

704
00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 2: But again, it's a PROG team.

705
00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:42,680
Speaker 3: That had great numbers in Europa League Group stage Slobby

706
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:46,960
Speaker 3: Progue and the Milan defense. That's been the biggest thing

707
00:33:47,240 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 3: with Loft, his cheek and Reindeers in there.

708
00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:52,840
Speaker 2: Like their attack. Milan's attack has taken a clear.

709
00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:55,960
Speaker 3: Step forward this year year every year, but their defense

710
00:33:56,240 --> 00:33:59,520
Speaker 3: is way worse and they are not able to stop

711
00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:02,840
Speaker 3: the outlet passes and that's where Sparta or Slavia Prog

712
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:04,719
Speaker 3: rather had all of their success today. So I think

713
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:06,120
Speaker 3: they're gonna do that again. And I think you're right,

714
00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:08,640
Speaker 3: they're live for sure. We've got our little head to

715
00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:11,840
Speaker 3: head battle Atlanta and Sporting. Yeah, it's pretty much in

716
00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:13,879
Speaker 3: line with the market.

717
00:34:14,160 --> 00:34:15,160
Speaker 2: I don't think they're rawing dead.

718
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:19,800
Speaker 3: They rested a lot of guys on Wednesday.

719
00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:23,399
Speaker 1: They sat Yocharis for the for the first half, which

720
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:25,680
Speaker 1: I was very concerned with, like why are you sitting

721
00:34:25,680 --> 00:34:26,400
Speaker 1: your best player.

722
00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:28,640
Speaker 3: They weren't much better with that with him on the pitch,

723
00:34:28,680 --> 00:34:31,040
Speaker 3: but yeah, Atlanta was the clear better side. Also, Atlanta

724
00:34:31,080 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 3: didn't start to Katala like it was weird from both teams.

725
00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:35,520
Speaker 3: I think that both teams are kind of just playing

726
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:35,759
Speaker 3: it out.

727
00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:36,120
Speaker 2: CAGD.

728
00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:38,880
Speaker 3: That's one where you need to wait for lineups. If

729
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:43,799
Speaker 3: and UH York guests are both in there. I think

730
00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:45,239
Speaker 3: two and a half over two and a half minus

731
00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:47,600
Speaker 3: one twenty is like a little cheap. But the first

732
00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:49,879
Speaker 3: lag was pretty dead. It was only one point three xg.

733
00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:52,000
Speaker 3: There were four posts, but there was like not actual

734
00:34:52,040 --> 00:34:54,640
Speaker 3: good chances. It was just a lot of like crazy

735
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:58,440
Speaker 3: shots that hit the post. But you keep tabs on

736
00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:00,719
Speaker 3: the lineups there because if both teams play there best attackers, like,

737
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:02,480
Speaker 3: it should be over two and a half in a

738
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:04,600
Speaker 3: second leg. But Atlanta has got a bit of an

739
00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 3: edge there. Roma destroyed Brighton. I think Brighton's pretty dead.

740
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:11,360
Speaker 3: Marseille is pretty much through, so we're gonna have a

741
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:19,919
Speaker 3: fun stage like Liverpool, Leracusen Roma, Milan, Marseille Atalanta. So

742
00:35:19,960 --> 00:35:22,399
Speaker 3: it's gonna be a really fun Europea League quarter final

743
00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:24,839
Speaker 3: potential here. That's not a ton of close matchups west

744
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:30,960
Speaker 3: Ham and Freiburg. That's like the Ranger interesting, Yeah, Benfica

745
00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:35,879
Speaker 3: going two Rangers should be a fun one. But nothing

746
00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:37,920
Speaker 3: else for me, and as of yet, we got some

747
00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:39,759
Speaker 3: time to go through those. As always, follow us in

748
00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:41,760
Speaker 3: the app. We'll have some picks. Follow us in the discord.

749
00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:44,360
Speaker 3: We'll get to that. Bja's betting the Bourne Mith Luton

750
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:46,680
Speaker 3: over in the league. If you listen to any pod

751
00:35:46,719 --> 00:35:48,319
Speaker 3: we've done in the last month and you know why

752
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:50,440
Speaker 3: he's betting the over, the market just continues too.

753
00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:54,319
Speaker 1: You can read on the Actionnetwork dot com and in

754
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:56,800
Speaker 1: the Action Network app. I will have a full preview,

755
00:35:56,960 --> 00:35:59,160
Speaker 1: so if you're somebody who enjoys reading rather than listening

756
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:01,920
Speaker 1: to my Anno voice, you can do that.

757
00:36:02,400 --> 00:36:03,480
Speaker 2: Absolutely all right.

758
00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:05,879
Speaker 3: That'll do it for this brief episode of Wonder Goal.

759
00:36:05,880 --> 00:36:09,080
Speaker 3: We will be back on Thursday morning to preview the

760
00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:13,359
Speaker 3: final weekend slate before the international break, and we will

761
00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:19,560
Speaker 3: have actual reaction to the decider, maybe the biggest match

762
00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 3: of the season, Liverpool City. We'll have full reaction to

763
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:24,680
Speaker 3: that coming up on Thursday's episode, which we didn't have

764
00:36:25,160 --> 00:36:27,800
Speaker 3: the chance to record after. So thanks to everybody for listening,

765
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:29,640
Speaker 3: thanks to bet three sixty five, thanks to know our

766
00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:32,880
Speaker 3: producer leab Off. Will be back next week and everybody

767
00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:45,719
Speaker 3: enjoy the Champions League. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

768
00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

769
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:51,839
Speaker 3: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

770
00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:52,760
Speaker 3: hundred Gambler