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Speaker 1: What's going on? Everybody? Welcome into Fantasy Pros. This is

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Speaker 1: the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. I'm your host, Joe Rico, joined

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Speaker 1: by a very special guest. He is my dear friend,

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Speaker 1: Justin Mason from Fangrafts. Justin, thank you so much for

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Speaker 1: hopping on with me today, Buddy. How's it going.

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Speaker 2: Hey, It's always a great day to talk baseball with you, Joe.

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Speaker 2: You know we're gonna do it a few times this week,

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Speaker 2: so I love being able to sit down chat with you,

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Speaker 2: my friend.

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Speaker 1: It's always great. Justin is one of the best, one

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Speaker 1: of my dear friends in the industry. Go ahead and

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Speaker 1: make sure you follow him on Twitter at Justin Mason

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Speaker 1: FWFB keep track of all the latest podcasts and articles Justin.

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Speaker 1: He's doing a ton of stuff at fangrams and also

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Speaker 1: here at Fantasy pro, so make sure you guys are

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Speaker 1: keeping track of all of his great work. It is

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Speaker 1: very early into the season, but we are going to

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Speaker 1: talk about ten players who are showing signs of breaking

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Speaker 1: out and whether or not we believe these are legitimate

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Speaker 1: guys that you should be buying into trading for picking

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Speaker 1: up with rest of season. And we're gonna get it

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Speaker 1: started with Mike Soroka, a good Canadian boy to kick

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Speaker 1: things off. One of my most rostered players this season.

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Speaker 1: I certainly wasn't expecting him to come out of the

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Speaker 1: gates the way he did with a ten strikeout game

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Speaker 1: the other night. Five good clean innings, four hits, walked,

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Speaker 1: one batter, But the ten strikeouts is massive to see.

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Speaker 1: Are you expecting more of these type of performances from

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Speaker 1: Mike Soroka as the year goes on? Is he somebody

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Speaker 1: that you think is worth investing? And even if you're

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Speaker 1: talking maybe a twelve team standard sized league, is Soroca

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Speaker 1: somebody you think is worth a pickup?

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Speaker 2: Justin I think he's worth a pickup for now. The

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Speaker 2: thing is you don't want to pin too many hopes

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Speaker 2: on the guy because he really just doesn't stay healthy.

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Speaker 2: Since twenty twenty, he hasn't thrown more than eighty nine

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Speaker 2: and two thirds innings in a single season. He rarely

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Speaker 2: makes it, you know, to you know, double legit starts.

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Speaker 2: I know last year was his you know, most amount

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Speaker 2: of started games in seventeen since his twenty nine team breakout.

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Speaker 2: But I just have a hard time believing that he's

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Speaker 2: gonna stay healthy. That's a problem for later though, right,

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Speaker 2: So for right now, you can go ahead and pick

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Speaker 2: him up. You know, it was really nice to see

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Speaker 2: the strikeouts. The strikeouts have you know, not always been

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Speaker 2: a real part of his game, and we saw him

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Speaker 2: also only walk one in this five in the outing,

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Speaker 2: so that's really encouraging too, that both the control the

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Speaker 2: command were there as well as the strikeout stuff. I'm

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Speaker 2: I'm a little bit concerned that people are gonna go

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Speaker 2: a little crazy, right. It's one thing if you're in

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Speaker 2: like a fastest finger type league or a waiver league,

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Speaker 2: right and you want to go use you know, your

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Speaker 2: waiver priority on him. It's another thing if you're in

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Speaker 2: a fable right, if you're in a fab league, don't overspend,

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Speaker 2: right like, don't don't like in a thousand dollars fab league,

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Speaker 2: I would not be putting triple digits on Mike Soroka.

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Speaker 2: I think there will be people that do that in leagues.

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Speaker 2: Let them waste their money because chances are he's not

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Speaker 2: gonna be around super long, and I doubt we're going

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Speaker 2: to see him be a guy who is striking out

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Speaker 2: you know at a you know, you know, ten per

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Speaker 2: nine kind of rate. So I think this is a

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Speaker 2: guy that you want to get on your team, you

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Speaker 2: want to get shares of if you can, but don't

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Speaker 2: go crazy.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I should probably say like, I have a lot

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Speaker 1: of shares, but I also play in a lot of

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Speaker 1: deeper leagues. I think a lot of our listeners are

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Speaker 1: probably twelve teamers, maybe some ten teamers. I'm in a

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Speaker 1: lot of fifteen team leagues, a lot of draft in

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Speaker 1: holds where seven hundred plus players are taken, and I

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Speaker 1: did draft a bunch of Mike Soroka. But to your point,

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Speaker 1: he's a guy with a very shaky injury history, only

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Speaker 1: one season over one hundred innings in his entire career,

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Speaker 1: and it happened before the COVID even happened, so we're

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Speaker 1: talking about a very long time ago. I think he

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Speaker 1: is worth a pickup for the time being. But I

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Speaker 1: agree you got to be a little bit cautious here

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Speaker 1: with Mike Soroka in the long run. You said one

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Speaker 1: hundred dollars plus fab is or too much? What would

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Speaker 1: be like the range for you? Like his fit, Like

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Speaker 1: a five percent of your total budget seem about right

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Speaker 1: for Soroka? Is even that maybe pushing it a little bit.

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Speaker 2: I'd say thirty to forty dollars, maybe fifty if you

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Speaker 2: really want to push it and get it and get aggressive.

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Speaker 2: I just I don't love making massive bids early unless

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Speaker 2: I'm filling a need, right I I I want to

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Speaker 2: give myself the opportunity to get lucky right as many

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Speaker 2: times as possible. And the bigger the bids that you do,

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Speaker 2: the last bids are going to be able to make

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Speaker 2: over the course of the season, right, So I tend

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Speaker 2: to not want to drop triple digit bids unless you

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Speaker 2: know there's a guy who's now closer who like and

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Speaker 2: I need saves, right or you know, if you're in

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Speaker 2: a league where you know you weren't able to draft

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Speaker 2: you know, Connor Griffin and he's now up. I get

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Speaker 2: making that thirty to forty percent of your budget kind

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Speaker 2: of been on a guy like that, but I got

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Speaker 2: like Mike Soroka not so much. I'm saying, like twenty

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Speaker 2: thirty forty dollars is probably the range.

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Speaker 1: I would go, Okay, I think that's fair. Yeah, you

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Speaker 1: got to also a factor in how much time this

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Speaker 1: guy has missed over the years, and I'm excited about

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Speaker 1: him but I think it's good to throw a little

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Speaker 1: bit of cold water on the Soroka hype as well.

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Speaker 2: That's what I'm here for. I'm just gonna throw cold

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Speaker 2: water and everything.

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Speaker 1: Joe, that's what we're here for. We're gonna all these pickups.

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Speaker 1: Nobody's breaking out. They're all terrible. You should ignore all them. No,

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Speaker 1: But honestly, though this time of year, people are prone

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Speaker 1: to overreactions, and I think every time we see a

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Speaker 1: good start, even in my head, I think, well, this

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Speaker 1: could be something. You know, maybe we get thirty of these,

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Speaker 1: but it is good to maybe not be pessimistic, but

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Speaker 1: just to be more realistic as opposed to jumping in

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Speaker 1: with both feet on everybody. I say that as about

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Speaker 1: to bring up a guy that I am kind of

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Speaker 1: jumping in with both feet on, and that's Kyle Harrison.

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Speaker 1: I mean what he did the other night against the Rays.

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Speaker 1: I'll be at only five innings, but it was really

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Speaker 1: really impressive. Stuffed one run but struck out eight. The

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Speaker 1: fastball was humming, and we have the stuff grades from that.

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Speaker 1: Outing his fastball, which was already his one of his

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Speaker 1: better offerings, the one that he used more often than

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Speaker 1: any other pitch the stuff plus went from one oh

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Speaker 1: seven to one sixteen on that offering one o four

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Speaker 1: to one to twelve. Overall, Kyle Harrison is a guy

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Speaker 1: that I'm kind of kicking myself for not drafting more

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Speaker 1: when he was pretty cheap heading into the year, justin

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Speaker 1: he came up in your system as a Giants fan,

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Speaker 1: I mean, he seems like a different pitcher over the

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Speaker 1: last couple years, though he seems quite a bit better

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Speaker 1: than he was when he was a Giant in his

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Speaker 1: brief period as a Red Sox as well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he is. He absolutely is a different pitcher than

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Speaker 2: who was when he was a Giant. And I say

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Speaker 2: that as a person who, as a Giants fan watched

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Speaker 2: him quite a bit as he was coming up and

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Speaker 2: was never really impressed. Did not see a lot of

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Speaker 2: the stuff that other people did. Yes, the fastball was good,

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Speaker 2: but that was pretty much it in terms of Kyle

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Speaker 2: Harrison's repertoire when he was coming up to the Giant system,

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Speaker 2: and I always kind of said, like, I think this

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Speaker 2: guy's gonna be a pretty good reliever, but I don't

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Speaker 2: know that he's gonna be a very good starter. And

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Speaker 2: then he was part of the Devers trade whenever to

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Speaker 2: Boston and then was traded again this offseason to Milwaukee.

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Speaker 2: And sometimes people are like, oh, he's been traded twice

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Speaker 2: obviously teams, you know, teams that have him don't like him. Well,

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Speaker 2: I think you make the argument that hey, multiple teams

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Speaker 2: wanted him, right, especially when a big piece like Devers

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Speaker 2: gets moved in in that first trade. So I I

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Speaker 2: love what we're seeing now. And this was the guy

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Speaker 2: I was very big on in spring, and like you,

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Speaker 2: I did not end up with very many shares of

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Speaker 2: Kyle Harrison, but the addition of the change up has

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Speaker 2: been huge for him. He's really able to command and

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Speaker 2: control it well. Also commandit control has gone up on

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Speaker 2: or gotten better on the fastball as well. And what

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Speaker 2: we saw in that outing was a guy who really

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Speaker 2: knows how to mitch mix his pitch as well. I'm

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Speaker 2: sure you know Milwaukee has had a lot through that

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Speaker 2: Boston as well as a good pitching development organization and

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Speaker 2: probably helped him before or he got moved over to

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Speaker 2: Milwaukee also, So I'm really really excited by Kyle Harrison.

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Speaker 2: I think he should be rostered in every format if

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Speaker 2: you can go and pick him up off the wire.

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Speaker 1: Now is the time. Yeah, I think this could be

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Speaker 1: a legitimate breakout. I'll try not to say that too

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Speaker 1: too much, because how many legitimate ones can there really be,

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Speaker 1: But in a guy who's still not even twenty five

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Speaker 1: years old, all of his offerings look better than they

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Speaker 1: did last year. I think the rotation spot is secure

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Speaker 1: in Milwaukee. There's just a lot to like about Kyle Harrison.

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Speaker 1: I think of all the guys we'll talk about today

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Speaker 1: and maybe I'll ask you again at the end, but

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Speaker 1: he might be the number one pitching pickup I think

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Speaker 1: in the majority of leagues. I think he's like thirty

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Speaker 1: five percent or so if you're talking about Yahoo, and

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Speaker 1: probably even less if you're playing on sites like ESPN.

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Speaker 1: So definitely take a look at Kyle Harrison, see if

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Speaker 1: he's still out there. Another guy who's done very well,

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Speaker 1: and we have two starts, which is compared to most pictures,

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Speaker 1: a massive sample size right now, and that's Jose Soriano.

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Speaker 1: His first two starts up looks fantastic. The eleven strike

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Speaker 1: er over the twelve innings. He is not yet allowed

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Speaker 1: to run, but he is walking batters and that has

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Speaker 1: been kind of a feature with Soriano over the years.

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Speaker 1: He has six walks in his first twelve innings. It's

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Speaker 1: a thirteen percent rate. But he does seem to be

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Speaker 1: a pretty exciting name this time of year. Soriano is

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Speaker 1: almost a running joke the last few years in the

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Speaker 1: fantasy world, as he's always projected as a top twenty

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Speaker 1: five pitcher. It never seems to meet those marks. Could

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Speaker 1: he actually meet that this year? Though? Is there a

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Speaker 1: world where Soriano does become that ace we've been hoping

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Speaker 1: for for a few years?

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Speaker 2: Okay, So I mean here, here's the question we've got

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Speaker 2: to ask ourselves. Is Soriano gonna turn into an ace?

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Speaker 2: I don't think so. No, that's just not gonna happen.

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Speaker 2: Could Soriano be a better version of what we've seen

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Speaker 2: from him in the past. That absolutely could happen. And

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Speaker 2: I do think we're maybe starting to see some of

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Speaker 2: those signs. But the idea that Jose Soriano is all

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Speaker 2: of a sudden going to save your fantasy teams, I

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Speaker 2: think he is a mistake, right, And so like, if

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Speaker 2: you're in a trading league, don't be like overpaying for

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Speaker 2: Jose Soriana. He allows a lot of contact right, and

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Speaker 2: he's doing that so far this year. It's almost ninety

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Speaker 2: two percent on contact, which is an insane amount of

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Speaker 2: contact to allow. Now, that helps him get out of

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Speaker 2: innings quicker, which is important because he's also a guy

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Speaker 2: who walks a lot of guys right, and so you

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Speaker 2: don't you want to be able to get out of

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Speaker 2: an inning quickly if especially if you're putting traffic on

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Speaker 2: the basis. The problem is that can also lead to

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Speaker 2: higher babbeps, especially when the defense you know, may not

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Speaker 2: be great behind you all the time, and huge blow

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Speaker 2: up innings. And we haven't seen that yet so far

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Speaker 2: in the you know, his first two starts, but we

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Speaker 2: have seen that over the course of his career on

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Speaker 2: the plus side, While the control, and this is the

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Speaker 2: difference between control and command, So for those who don't

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Speaker 2: know the distinction or hear, then use interchangeably. Control is

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Speaker 2: about locating within the zone right a pitcher being able

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Speaker 2: to get the ball into the zone right, and that

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Speaker 2: determines your walk right. Often. Command is how you are

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Speaker 2: able to hate your spots within the zone right, Like

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Speaker 2: if you're aiming for the bottom, you know, outside corner,

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Speaker 2: do you actually hit that spot or does it drift

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Speaker 2: towards the center of the plate or high. So Soriano

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Speaker 2: has shown that he is not a very good control pitcher, right,

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Speaker 2: He walks too many guys, and that is going to

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Speaker 2: continue to happen. It's already happening so far through his

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Speaker 2: first two starts. What he's shown so far in these

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Speaker 2: first two starts is a little bit better command, which

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Speaker 2: is important because that will help lower the home run rate,

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Speaker 2: which has been an issue for him in the past.

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Speaker 2: So I don't know if he's going to keep these games.

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Speaker 2: This may just be a matter of hate. It is

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Speaker 2: easier to pitch when it's colder, right, We see this

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Speaker 2: all the time that there are the pitchers. Era's league

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Speaker 2: average is lower in the springtime. As we start to

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Speaker 2: heat up in the slubber that goes up. So I

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Speaker 2: think this is probably a little bit of an improvement

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Speaker 2: for suppose to Soriano. But I don't think think this

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Speaker 2: is a new guy. This isn't We're We're not all

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Speaker 2: of a sudden having a kind of later stage breakout.

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Speaker 1: I think I'm kind of leading that way as well,

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Speaker 1: especially because of the team around him. Like even if

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Speaker 1: Soriano does take another step forward. Is he going to

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Speaker 1: win twelve or thirteen games with that team with that

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Speaker 1: pen to hand things off to. Probably not. I mean,

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Speaker 1: he did win ten last year in thirty one games,

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Speaker 1: so it is possible. But I think that you are

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Speaker 1: operating on some fine margins there also in terms of

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Speaker 1: the command and the strikeouts. You know, twenty four percent

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Speaker 1: so far, twenty one percent last year. I know the

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Speaker 1: swinging strike rate is up, but I kind of need

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Speaker 1: to see a little bit of a bigger sample size

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Speaker 1: until I'm willing to jump in with both feet. I

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Speaker 1: think that he is probably worth adding, depending on you know,

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Speaker 1: you might have an e flind replace or a Cody

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Speaker 1: Ponce you know there are going to be a couple

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Speaker 1: of players, a couple of managers in the league who

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Speaker 1: need some pitching replacements. I think you can do worse

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Speaker 1: than Soriano, but I agree with you justin that I

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Speaker 1: don't think he is necessarily going to break out and

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Speaker 1: become an ace that we're hoping for before we keep

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Speaker 1: it going. Guys, want to remind you about my playbook.

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Speaker 1: With my playbook, you'll instantly identify the best pickups available

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Speaker 1: in your league. When every trade with our trade analyzer

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Speaker 1: and see the most optimal lineup every day based on

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Speaker 1: our projections in your specific scoring settings. Sink your league

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Speaker 1: at fantasypros dot com, slash MLB my playbook, or download

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Speaker 1: the Fantasy Pros app personalized expert advice. Let's talk Parker Messig.

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Speaker 1: Justin and this is another guy that I kind of

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Speaker 1: wish I had more shares of based on how his

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Speaker 1: first start went against the Dodgers, of all teams, and

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Speaker 1: maybe it's just a Dodger thing because Gavin Williams also

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Speaker 1: embarrassed him yesterday, which I was not really expecting. But

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Speaker 1: Parker Messick six innings that were clean, five hits, no runs,

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Speaker 1: no walks, and five strikeouts. He got a little bit

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Speaker 1: of hype at the end of spring training. But a

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Speaker 1: guy that I unfortunately ended up with zero shares of.

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Speaker 1: Where are you at on Messick? Is this a legitimate

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Speaker 1: breakout that people should be buying into.

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Speaker 2: I'm a big Messic guy and I have been for

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Speaker 2: a while. He was the guy that I was targeting

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Speaker 2: all spring. As we started getting closer closure to opening day,

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Speaker 2: I got a little worried because all of a sudden,

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Speaker 2: it looked like there was a chance that he might

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Speaker 2: not be in the rotation, but then hey, right at

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Speaker 2: the end, they said, hey, no, he's in the rotation.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna send Logan Allen's you know, but out of here,

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Speaker 2: which is the perfect the perfect outcome for me. Got

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Speaker 2: a couple more shares, and in my last couple of drafts.

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Speaker 2: I really like what Cleveland does as an organization from

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Speaker 2: their pitching philosophy. They like these guys who've got good

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Speaker 2: command of control. Maybe this stuff is an elite, but

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Speaker 2: they can work with that.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 2: It's kind of the opposite of Gavin Williams, because gam

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Speaker 2: Williams is definitely a more of a you know, hey,

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna overpower you. I'm not always gonna be able

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Speaker 2: to command. I'm always gonna I'm not always going to

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Speaker 2: hit his own and have good control, but I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: try to overpower you left and right, and Messi doesn't

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Speaker 2: do that. Now. I do think that there's more strikeout

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Speaker 2: stuff in that profile, uh than we seen from him

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Speaker 2: last year, and we saw it all through the minor leagues.

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Speaker 2: But his goal isn't necessarily to strike everybody out. It's

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Speaker 2: really to kind of mix his pitch as well, get

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Speaker 2: quick outs and not get hurt. But what we saw

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Speaker 2: on that first start was a forty one percent swing

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Speaker 2: that he was getting people to chase. I think that's

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Speaker 2: a sign that we could get some more swing and miss,

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Speaker 2: especially as we start seeing him face some teams that

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Speaker 2: are a little bit more aggressive, especially out of the zone.

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Speaker 2: So Messick is a guy again I want to pick

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Speaker 2: up and I don't think you have to expend very

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Speaker 2: much on him. Yes, he just dominated the Dodgers, but

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Speaker 2: like people won't, people shouldn't overreact to that too much.

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Speaker 2: You should go to the wire and crab mesic and

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Speaker 2: see how it goes.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's not a bad schedule for him coming up.

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Speaker 1: He's got the Cubs and then at Atlanta and then

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Speaker 1: versus Baltimore. Not a picnic necessarily. Are you at the

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Speaker 1: point where you'd be willing to roll him out for

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Speaker 1: all those matchups? Are you still maybe adding and benching

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Speaker 1: for the time being.

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Speaker 2: I want to see how the Cubs game goes. Look,

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Speaker 2: I benched him for this week in the leagues where

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Speaker 2: I could, thankfully my glad heator man. But you know,

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Speaker 2: like there's I always have a fear, like a guy

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Speaker 2: goes out and has a really good first start of

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Speaker 2: a week and then just gets absolutely destroyed the second start.

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Speaker 2: So I definitely want to watch one more start, especially

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Speaker 2: because the Cubs can be so dangerous offensively. And then

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Speaker 2: we'll make a determination against Atlanta and Baltimore. But you know,

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Speaker 2: those are two good offenses as well, So I wouldn't

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Speaker 2: hate people saying like, hey, I'm gonna hold off right now,

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Speaker 2: But especially if you're in a shallower league where like,

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Speaker 2: you know, like you only have a few bench spots,

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Speaker 2: don't be picking up guys you're not willing to use

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Speaker 2: right So if you're not willing to use him, you

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Speaker 2: could probably grab him later, you know, or just go

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Speaker 2: get someone else because you're wanting to churn and burn

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Speaker 2: those bench spots with the guys you're using that guys

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Speaker 2: are stashing.

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Speaker 1: I agree, especially if you're talking a ten team or

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Speaker 1: a twelve team, or the stash has become less valuable

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Speaker 1: just because there's so many great players available. At least,

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Speaker 1: this start does come on a Sunday, so if you

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Speaker 1: are in a head to head league, you can kind

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Speaker 1: of just termin it based on what you need. If

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Speaker 1: your ratios are already secure and everything then there's no need.

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Speaker 1: If you're in a desperation spot where you're down in

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Speaker 1: ERA and you need the strikeouts and hope for a win,

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Speaker 1: then I think you can probably start him there and

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Speaker 1: it probably won't blow back too badly. Situation dependent. Let's

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Speaker 1: talk Randy Vasquez, because I feel like I've badly missed

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Speaker 1: something here. I know he is very different than he

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Speaker 1: was in previous seasons, the guy who, despite the three

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Speaker 1: eighty four ERA last season, had a four point six

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Speaker 1: percent strikeout minus walk rate. He had a one thirty

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Speaker 1: two whip. He was simply not very good, especially when

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Speaker 1: you dig into the advanced metrics. He was just kind

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Speaker 1: of eh, okay, he was fine whatever. He had a

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Speaker 1: successful season. But he comes in this year throwing darts.

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Speaker 1: He's up two miles an hour on his fastball. He

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Speaker 1: has a great first start of the season. I'm kind

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Speaker 1: of kicking myself for not believing more in Randy Vasquez.

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Speaker 1: But at the same time, I don't know if I'm

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Speaker 1: really buying that he's super different than he was in

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Speaker 1: years past, although it looks like he might be justin.

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Speaker 2: Well, here's the thing, so he had the Vilo bomb,

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Speaker 2: and that is important because he was a guy who

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Speaker 2: just didn't have a very impressive fastball. And let's be honest, like,

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Speaker 2: in spite of the fact that the fastball is you know,

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Speaker 2: two miles an hour faster, it's you know, still kind

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Speaker 2: of a league average fastball. It like, it doesn't have

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Speaker 2: like amazing movement, it's just faster. But that helps play

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Speaker 2: up on his other pitches, right, especially his curveball, which

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Speaker 2: is probably his best pitch and at least it is

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Speaker 2: by stuff. Plus you know, getting that kind of velocity

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Speaker 2: difference when you're seeing the ard motion, you know, and

389
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Speaker 2: it comes in at ninety five, to see that slower

390
00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:43,880
Speaker 2: curve come in later, it can make you really really

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Speaker 2: guess what's coming next, Right, And so I do see

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Speaker 2: a world in which this works. I'm not betting on it, though.

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Speaker 2: This is definitely feels a lot more like the Soriano

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Speaker 2: kind of situation where yes, I think he's going to

395
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Speaker 2: be better than he was, but that's not really saying

396
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Speaker 2: much when we're talking about a guy who last year

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Speaker 2: had you know, a you know, five thirty seven x CRA.

398
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Speaker 2: I know the ra was three eighty four, but like,

399
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Speaker 2: like he really got super super lucky with a two

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Speaker 2: sixty one bad that he's a you know, one sixty

401
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Speaker 2: seven bad that in his first start in one hundred

402
00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:24,119
Speaker 2: percent strand rate, Like, those numbers are going to come

403
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Speaker 2: back down to earth. I think there's gonna be some

404
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Speaker 2: master of aggression. I wouldn't mind picking my spots with

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Speaker 2: him and using him as a spot starter. But I

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Speaker 2: don't think Randy Vaspez has entered like, you know, pick

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Speaker 2: up and hold territory yet.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you. Like, is the velocity bump important? Absolutely?

409
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Speaker 1: Is it gonna add twenty points to his strikeout rate?

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Speaker 1: Probably not. I don't think the command has been a

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Speaker 1: little bit of an issue. It was last year nine

412
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Speaker 1: point one percent walk rate. You know. If he continues

413
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Speaker 1: with these strikeouts, if he's giving you you know about

414
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Speaker 1: a strikeout per inning, I think this could work, but

415
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Speaker 1: I I don't really want to be the one to

416
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Speaker 1: pay to find out, especially when everybody is in overreaction mode.

417
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Speaker 1: And as we mentioned earlier, you might see somebody throw

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Speaker 1: a triple digit bit down on him. Those twelve team

419
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Speaker 1: online championships are crazy. I would not be doing it, yeah,

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Speaker 1: but somebody will.

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Speaker 2: This is the time of year two and like and

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Speaker 2: I wrote it in my Fantasy pros article over the weekend,

423
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Speaker 2: like my you know, I think twenty things to watch,

424
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Speaker 2: and one of the things I said was watch baseball,

425
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Speaker 2: like just enjoy the game, like enjoy the actual sport

426
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Speaker 2: of baseball by watching the games. Not because like you're

427
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Speaker 2: looking for something necessarily though you will find you will

428
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Speaker 2: see things you know that are important for fantasy while

429
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Speaker 2: you watch games, but mostly because everybody wants to overreact

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Speaker 2: right now. Everybody sees something or they see a stat

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Speaker 2: or they read an article and they're like, oh, I've.

432
00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:49,760
Speaker 3: Got to do this.

433
00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:54,520
Speaker 2: And really, you spent you know, a month or two

434
00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:56,720
Speaker 2: months or three months or like us, four or five

435
00:20:56,840 --> 00:21:00,240
Speaker 2: months of prep Are you gonna throw out all of

436
00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:03,480
Speaker 2: that prep all of that research that you spent months

437
00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:07,000
Speaker 2: on or weeks on over a week's worth of action.

438
00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:10,399
Speaker 2: You shouldn't. Unless you see something tangible, you really shouldn't.

439
00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:13,640
Speaker 2: And Raandy Vasquez is one of these great examples of like, yeah,

440
00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:15,879
Speaker 2: if he's got a good start coming up, maybe I

441
00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:19,080
Speaker 2: would stream him, but I'm not like pinning my hopes

442
00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:22,440
Speaker 2: and dreams of my season on his first start when

443
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:24,399
Speaker 2: he's gonna make, you know, thirty more.

444
00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:27,840
Speaker 1: I completely agree. Everybody wants to throw away everything. I

445
00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:30,359
Speaker 1: had a question this morning. It was legitimate. It was

446
00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:32,960
Speaker 1: should I drop Logan Web And it's like, come on,

447
00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:34,320
Speaker 1: like no, no.

448
00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:40,000
Speaker 2: Don't, just don't be If a bad week happened in

449
00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:44,200
Speaker 2: June or July, you wouldn't notice. You absolutely wouldn't notice.

450
00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:47,040
Speaker 2: So like, if someone has a bad start for you

451
00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:50,040
Speaker 2: as a pitcher or one of your hitters, you know,

452
00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:52,960
Speaker 2: starting off like over eighteen or something like that, like,

453
00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:56,040
Speaker 2: don't worry about it. If you believed in him last week,

454
00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:58,600
Speaker 2: don't worry about the fact that they've started slow.

455
00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:02,040
Speaker 1: It's pretty mu fantasy podcasting in the first month of

456
00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:05,280
Speaker 1: the season, whatever sport you cover, just preaching patients and

457
00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 1: don't overreact. There was a guy who was messaging me

458
00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:10,960
Speaker 1: the other day and he'd already turned over eight or

459
00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:13,680
Speaker 1: nine spots on his roster. I'm a twenty I think

460
00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:15,520
Speaker 1: it was a twenty one or twenty two round draft,

461
00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:17,359
Speaker 1: and he'd already dropped eight guys that he drafted.

462
00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:21,000
Speaker 2: It's it's just I think, why did you draft them.

463
00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:23,280
Speaker 2: It's like, like, don't get me wrong, I'm all for

464
00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:25,959
Speaker 2: turning over your roster as the season goes on. Right,

465
00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 2: you absolutely should drop that many guys over the course

466
00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:32,600
Speaker 2: of the season. Yeah, you shouldn't do it a week one.

467
00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:35,120
Speaker 2: Why why did you draft those guys? Say? Like, if

468
00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:38,520
Speaker 2: you've drafted someone because you believed in them, right, Like,

469
00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:42,840
Speaker 2: if you're not believing them in them, you know, seven

470
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:45,200
Speaker 2: or eight days into the season, you're doing something wrong.

471
00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:48,480
Speaker 1: Yeah. I think people just there's no games for so

472
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:50,960
Speaker 1: long and then they see action and they just immediately

473
00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:53,720
Speaker 1: think this is what's gonna happen the entirety of the season.

474
00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 1: We are going to see Randy Vaskaz when the cy young.

475
00:22:56,200 --> 00:23:00,719
Speaker 2: And it's a football mentality. And I love fantasy football, right,

476
00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:03,359
Speaker 2: there's nothing wrong with fantasy football. But fantasy football is

477
00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:07,639
Speaker 2: a sprint. Yeah, Fantasy Baseball's a marathon, and you have

478
00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:11,200
Speaker 2: to like really pace yourself in be smart because I

479
00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:14,200
Speaker 2: promise you someone on that team that that guy drop

480
00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:16,840
Speaker 2: is gonna win someone else the league. That happens all

481
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:20,240
Speaker 2: the time. We see it every year where people overreact,

482
00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:24,200
Speaker 2: they drop someone that is, you know, performing slow. I won,

483
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:28,200
Speaker 2: you know, my first high stakes league because someone drops CJ. Abrams,

484
00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:30,600
Speaker 2: you know, early on in the season, and I picked

485
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:32,480
Speaker 2: him up and he went on to carry my team

486
00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:35,080
Speaker 2: to a championship a few years ago. So like, like

487
00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:37,800
Speaker 2: take advantage of the people who are dropping these guys.

488
00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:40,920
Speaker 2: Don't be the guy who's gonna get taken advantage of.

489
00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 1: That's perfectly said. And Abrams is a funny one because

490
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:45,720
Speaker 1: there was like a video I think it was Brian

491
00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:48,240
Speaker 1: Slack or somebody made that video a couple of years ago,

492
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:51,359
Speaker 1: the parody video about somebody dropped Abrams and then they

493
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:53,680
Speaker 1: picked up Jean Sagura for him instead or something, and

494
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:55,880
Speaker 1: then Abrams goes on this run that you're talking about.

495
00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:58,719
Speaker 1: So do not be the guy who picks up Jean Sagura.

496
00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:01,240
Speaker 1: Stick it out with the guys you drafted. Just to

497
00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:04,639
Speaker 1: put a bow on Vazquez. His next start is on

498
00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:08,680
Speaker 1: Saturday at Fenway. I couldn't do it, just couldn't do

499
00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 1: it if my life depended on it. But the following

500
00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:13,760
Speaker 1: start is against the Rockies away from Coors, so I couldn't.

501
00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 2: That's perfect. Yeah, yeah, if you want to pick him

502
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:18,479
Speaker 2: up and then not use them for Boston and use

503
00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 2: them for Colorado, I you know, we're waiting until have

504
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:23,600
Speaker 2: of the Boston game, where other people who may have

505
00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 2: picked him up will drop him. Yeah, I would totally

506
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:29,200
Speaker 2: use them for San Diego or for Colorado, but I'm

507
00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:30,720
Speaker 2: not using them against the threat socks.

508
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:34,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree. One more pitcher here, and maybe

509
00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:36,360
Speaker 1: this one falls a little bit into the Mike Soroka

510
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 1: please just stay healthy camp. But Lance mccullor's dazzled in

511
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:41,920
Speaker 1: his first start of the season, seven innings. He allowed

512
00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:44,359
Speaker 1: the one run, nine strikeouts. Things got a little dodgy

513
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:46,600
Speaker 1: in the seventh inning. I was kind of surprised he

514
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:48,720
Speaker 1: got sent back out there, but he did work out

515
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:50,680
Speaker 1: of some trouble. Allowed just to one run. The nine

516
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:55,280
Speaker 1: k's are massive. I've been a mccullors fan for several years.

517
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 1: When he's out there, outside of twenty twenty five, he's

518
00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:00,399
Speaker 1: usually been very good. He's a three sixty eight ERA

519
00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 1: over his seven hundred and eighty innings. But it just

520
00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:04,720
Speaker 1: comes down to how much you trust the health And

521
00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:06,760
Speaker 1: I know you can't really answer that, but are you

522
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:09,399
Speaker 1: willing to invest in him with the help that he

523
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:11,000
Speaker 1: can put it together this year and stay healthy.

524
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:14,200
Speaker 2: I mean, I think this falls into the Suka category

525
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 2: where yeah, I'll take the gamble. You know, maybe I'm

526
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:22,000
Speaker 2: not starting in every start, but you know, he could

527
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:24,520
Speaker 2: be good as long as he's healthy. The problem is

528
00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 2: he won't be healthy, and we just have too much

529
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:31,560
Speaker 2: history with Lance McCullers to know that, Like, hey, he's

530
00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:35,040
Speaker 2: probably not gonna throw more than seventy or eighty innings.

531
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:37,080
Speaker 2: The last time he even threw more than fifty five

532
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:41,919
Speaker 2: innings was in twenty twenty one, And so the chances

533
00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:45,879
Speaker 2: that he's going to like volume his way to usefulness

534
00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 2: is probably none. But the chance is that he could

535
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:54,400
Speaker 2: be useful in the short term. Well, he is healthy, sure,

536
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 2: why not take a gamble? And you know, again, I

537
00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:58,880
Speaker 2: think there's a spot starter kind of guy, Like you're

538
00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:03,240
Speaker 2: not starting him every time, but you know, when you've

539
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:05,359
Speaker 2: got a good matchup and mccullur's is healthy, I think

540
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:07,359
Speaker 2: he's worth you know, taking a gamble.

541
00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:11,040
Speaker 1: On at Athletics for his next start. And they haven't

542
00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:13,320
Speaker 1: been off to a great start to the season, but

543
00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 1: at Sutter Health Park. Worries me a little bit if

544
00:26:16,119 --> 00:26:17,280
Speaker 1: you picked him up, I think it'd be hard to

545
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 1: sit him. But how do you reconcile that if you

546
00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:19,879
Speaker 1: did pick it up.

547
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:24,639
Speaker 2: I'm not I'm not I'm only starting studs in Sacramento,

548
00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:25,879
Speaker 2: like that's just what it is.

549
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 1: Like.

550
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:29,600
Speaker 2: I just if you are not like a top thirty

551
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:33,639
Speaker 2: starting pitcher, you are not in my rotation in Sacramento.

552
00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:36,680
Speaker 2: For the most part, it's just too dangerous stages of park.

553
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 1: I think that's pretty fair. After that, it's at Seattle,

554
00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:42,399
Speaker 1: which not an easy offense, but a nice park to

555
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:42,800
Speaker 1: be pitching.

556
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:43,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't mind that.

557
00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 1: And then it looks like he will just miss the

558
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:49,320
Speaker 1: Colorado series. It looks like they have a Christian Javier

559
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:52,520
Speaker 1: Eric Getty and in my line up there, so yeah,

560
00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:55,119
Speaker 1: I think he's probably a little bit match up based.

561
00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:59,080
Speaker 1: At this point. I go back and forth on this

562
00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:01,359
Speaker 1: one because I almost want to get all the usage

563
00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:03,359
Speaker 1: I can out of him while he's healthy, and sitting

564
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:06,400
Speaker 1: him while he's healthy feels counterintuitive. But at the same time,

565
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:08,560
Speaker 1: it feels like six or seven are in runs waiting

566
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 1: to happen in Insider Health Park with the Colors.

567
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:13,840
Speaker 2: It's just too dangerous, So park it really is.

568
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:17,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, So we've talked about the pitchers. Now we are

569
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:19,680
Speaker 1: going to break down a few hitters. But first I

570
00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:21,879
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571
00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:25,040
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572
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574
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575
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585
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586
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589
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590
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591
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592
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593
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594
00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:20,639
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595
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596
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597
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Speaker 1: Now, I purposefully put more pitchers than headers on this

598
00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:32,240
Speaker 1: outline because I think that there is more to sink

599
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:34,600
Speaker 1: your teeth into with pitchers this time of year, with

600
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:37,240
Speaker 1: the harrison, with certain changes that you see, I want

601
00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 1: to jump on them a little bit earlier than the hitters,

602
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:41,080
Speaker 1: where I want to see a little bit more of

603
00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 1: a sample size, and that'll lead us right into Jordan Walker,

604
00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:46,880
Speaker 1: who looking at the small sample size, I mean, it's

605
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:50,160
Speaker 1: absolutely absurd, and I almost hate myself for saying this,

606
00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:52,600
Speaker 1: but like a twenty one percent barrel rate to seventy

607
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:55,560
Speaker 1: nine percent hard hit rate, Obviously it's ridiculous to look

608
00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:58,040
Speaker 1: at in a six game sample size, but Jordan Walker's

609
00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 1: actually looking like a productive of offensive baseball player for

610
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:04,040
Speaker 1: the first time in two years.

611
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:04,320
Speaker 2: Or so.

612
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 1: I know that there have been some injuries, but he's

613
00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:08,080
Speaker 1: been bad even in the minors over the last couple

614
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:10,440
Speaker 1: of years. Hasn't cracked one hundred WRC plus at any

615
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:13,520
Speaker 1: level since twenty twenty three. Are you willing to buy

616
00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:16,160
Speaker 1: in on Jordan Walker this year the post post post

617
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 1: hype sleeper.

618
00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:21,080
Speaker 2: Justin it's crazy that we're talking good about a twenty

619
00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:23,880
Speaker 2: three year old as a post post post hype sleeper.

620
00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:29,680
Speaker 2: I am willing to buy in just in case this

621
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:31,760
Speaker 2: is the breakout, because, I mean, this is a former

622
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:35,760
Speaker 2: top prospect who was really really well touted. I mean,

623
00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:37,479
Speaker 2: I want to say he was like the number one

624
00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:41,960
Speaker 2: or two prospect at one point in baseball. And he's

625
00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:46,680
Speaker 2: just really had the struggles with making good swing decisions

626
00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:51,120
Speaker 2: with contact, especially in the zone, and and not swinging

627
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:55,480
Speaker 2: too much outside of them. And he has looked really,

628
00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 2: really good so far. He reworked his swing in the

629
00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:03,160
Speaker 2: off season. He's making very good swing decisions right now,

630
00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:08,200
Speaker 2: and he is making pretty good in zone contact eight

631
00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:10,800
Speaker 2: eight percent as well, above league average. He's dropped the

632
00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:14,960
Speaker 2: swing strike rate from sixteen percent in twenty twenty five

633
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:17,880
Speaker 2: down to twelve percent so far, and the o swing

634
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:20,280
Speaker 2: has dropped almost ten percent, from thirty four percent down

635
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:25,360
Speaker 2: to twenty five percent. That being said, this may just

636
00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:28,920
Speaker 2: be a little hot streak. And the reason I say

637
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:32,160
Speaker 2: that is because the numbers did not look this good

638
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:37,560
Speaker 2: in spring when he was against worst competition, And so

639
00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:39,840
Speaker 2: it's not like I know a lot of people are

640
00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:41,440
Speaker 2: gonna point to like, well, you reworked his swing in

641
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:43,040
Speaker 2: the off season. Well, if you reworked at swing in

642
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:44,920
Speaker 2: the off season, why was a week and a half

643
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:49,640
Speaker 2: ago him struggling quite a bit in spring trading? So

644
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:53,000
Speaker 2: I do wonder and he's being like super aggressive, like

645
00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:56,360
Speaker 2: he's swinging seventy five percent of the time almost inside

646
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:59,040
Speaker 2: of the zone right now, or actually over seventy five

647
00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:02,960
Speaker 2: seventy six percent, you know, for fifty six percent overall

648
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 2: swing percentage, that's a lot of swinging. It hasn't led

649
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 2: to swinging missus yet, but I don't know that I

650
00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:12,320
Speaker 2: buy that it's not going to. So I do want

651
00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:13,800
Speaker 2: to pick him up, like I said, in case this

652
00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 2: is a new level because of the prospect pedigree, because

653
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:20,800
Speaker 2: he's hot right now. But if you if you had

654
00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:23,320
Speaker 2: to ask me to bet on whether this is a breakout,

655
00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:24,200
Speaker 2: I would bet against it.

656
00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:28,240
Speaker 1: What kind of level of player would you be willing

657
00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:31,640
Speaker 1: to drop for him? I saw a couple of people

658
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:34,720
Speaker 1: talking about they dropped var Show, they dropped you know,

659
00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:36,800
Speaker 1: a couple of those outfielders in like the one fifty

660
00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 1: to two hundred ADP range. Is that a little bit

661
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:41,040
Speaker 1: too good of a player for you to be moving

662
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:42,160
Speaker 1: on from at this point? You think?

663
00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:45,720
Speaker 2: I think var Show is a really interesting guy because,

664
00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:48,120
Speaker 2: like he's a very similar type profile. I think what

665
00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:51,400
Speaker 2: helps var Show is he's so good defensively that he's

666
00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:54,760
Speaker 2: gonna play no matter what, even when he struggles. But

667
00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:59,680
Speaker 2: I don't think that that is like a bad person

668
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:02,000
Speaker 2: to necessarily drop if you're in like a ten team league,

669
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 2: because you're gonna find those type of guys on the wire. Yeah, so,

670
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:08,160
Speaker 2: like in your ten teen leaks, sure in a twelve,

671
00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:11,640
Speaker 2: I probably wouldn't. In a fifteen, I definitely wouldn't drop

672
00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 2: a guy like Vur Show for Walker. But I think

673
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:18,600
Speaker 2: when we start getting like outside of the top two

674
00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:20,720
Speaker 2: hundred picks, I think all those guys are cutable for

675
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 2: someone like Walker, especially because you'll find those guys back

676
00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:24,360
Speaker 2: on the wire.

677
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:29,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, one more question on Walker, but more just in general,

678
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:33,200
Speaker 1: when looking at plate discipline, guys not chasing as much better, contact, better,

679
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:37,240
Speaker 1: swinging strike rate. How long until you put a lot

680
00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:39,560
Speaker 1: of stock into the numbers we're seeing? Is it two weeks?

681
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:41,400
Speaker 1: Is it a month? Is there a certain plate appearance

682
00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:43,920
Speaker 1: threshold where you start to see these numbers as real

683
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:46,360
Speaker 1: as opposed to just too small of a sample size.

684
00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 2: Usually between two and four weeks. I really want to see,

685
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:59,480
Speaker 2: like us get to I don't know, like sixty seventy

686
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:03,720
Speaker 2: appearances before I started, Like you know, I think it's

687
00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:06,200
Speaker 2: like around one hundred play appearances, these numbers start to

688
00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:10,000
Speaker 2: kind of solidify a little bit. Yeah, but that's too late, right,

689
00:33:10,200 --> 00:33:13,200
Speaker 2: That is, by that point these guys are already gone.

690
00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:16,400
Speaker 2: And so often you have to jump on these decisions

691
00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:19,800
Speaker 2: before these numbers solidify and kind of go for it

692
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:22,719
Speaker 2: and hope that it works out, and spoiler, a lot

693
00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:25,360
Speaker 2: of them won't. That's just the truth of the matter, is, like,

694
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:27,080
Speaker 2: this is why we turn and burn the bottom end

695
00:33:27,120 --> 00:33:29,040
Speaker 2: of our rosters, is because we're going to take these

696
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:32,040
Speaker 2: gambles before we know and they probably a lot of

697
00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:34,040
Speaker 2: them are going to work out. And so if you

698
00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:36,200
Speaker 2: see a guy like Walker, you see it like the

699
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:37,959
Speaker 2: next few guys we're going to talk about, like all

700
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:40,000
Speaker 2: of a sudden they cool down, then it's time to

701
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:42,480
Speaker 2: go drop them and pick someone else up. Unless the

702
00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:43,959
Speaker 2: numbers are staying stable.

703
00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:47,280
Speaker 1: I think that's really good advice. Uh, the bigger the

704
00:33:47,320 --> 00:33:50,040
Speaker 1: sable size, the better, but don't wait too too long,

705
00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:52,280
Speaker 1: or else you will have you have nobody to choose

706
00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 1: from on your waiver wire. Let's talk Going Casey, another

707
00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:57,800
Speaker 1: member of Team Canada here who's off to a really

708
00:33:57,880 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 1: nice start to the season. In his six games, he

709
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:01,600
Speaker 1: said a he stole in a base, He's driven in

710
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:04,440
Speaker 1: eight runs, He's hitting three point fifty. He doesn't seem

711
00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 1: to be swinging and missing as much. And that was

712
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:08,239
Speaker 1: the big worry for me with Owen Casey, why I

713
00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:10,640
Speaker 1: didn't really draft a ton of him. Swinging strike rates

714
00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:13,440
Speaker 1: were always pretty high, the contact rates were kind of iffy.

715
00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:15,839
Speaker 1: But to start the year, it's a seven point eight

716
00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:19,000
Speaker 1: percent swinging strike rate, a ninety percent zone contact rate.

717
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:21,880
Speaker 1: I'm starting to buy in a little bit more to

718
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:24,040
Speaker 1: Owen Casey as the days go by. Is he somebody

719
00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:26,160
Speaker 1: that you are thinking about adding this weekend, or somebody

720
00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:28,239
Speaker 1: that you drafted in the last couple weeks of the year.

721
00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:31,880
Speaker 2: No, he wasn't really a target for me. He was

722
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:34,600
Speaker 2: on my draft list because he was so cheap, but

723
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:36,520
Speaker 2: he just wasn't a guy that I really ended up with.

724
00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:38,439
Speaker 2: I don't even know if I got a single share

725
00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:42,040
Speaker 2: of Owen Casey. And it's because of the swing and

726
00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:45,360
Speaker 2: mess and you know, the inability to make contact in

727
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:48,719
Speaker 2: the zone. He's he's always been a guy that struggled

728
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:52,239
Speaker 2: with that in you know, in the minor leagues, and

729
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:54,400
Speaker 2: it's not going to get better in the majors. Now,

730
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:57,000
Speaker 2: it's been going great so far. Like as you mentioned,

731
00:34:57,160 --> 00:34:59,919
Speaker 2: so far, it's got almost ninety one percent zone content,

732
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:02,400
Speaker 2: he's only swinging outside the zone twenty two percent of

733
00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:06,279
Speaker 2: the time. Eight percent swinging strike great, is fantastic. We

734
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:09,440
Speaker 2: love to see that, and it does build a little

735
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 2: bit on some of the stuff we saw in spring. Right,

736
00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:13,640
Speaker 2: we saw a twenty percent O swing. We saw an

737
00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:17,240
Speaker 2: eighty two percent zone contact, which is below league average

738
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:20,800
Speaker 2: but not atrocious, right that that'll still play at the

739
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:23,319
Speaker 2: major league level, and a twelve percent swinging strike great,

740
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:25,759
Speaker 2: which is pretty good, especially for a guy like him

741
00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:30,360
Speaker 2: with power. So I do think that there might be

742
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 2: something here, and I think he's worth jumping on and

743
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 2: kind of you know, picking up off of the waiver wire.

744
00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:39,160
Speaker 2: But I also if we we also know that he's

745
00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:41,640
Speaker 2: really aggressive, he is being really aggressive, especially in the

746
00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:45,040
Speaker 2: zone right now, that this may just cool off and

747
00:35:45,120 --> 00:35:46,680
Speaker 2: he just may go back to being the guy that

748
00:35:46,719 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 2: he was. It wouldn't be surprised at all. Yeah.

749
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:51,239
Speaker 1: I think if you're talking you know those ten or

750
00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:53,800
Speaker 1: twelve team leagues that we refer to, if it's a

751
00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:57,279
Speaker 1: three outfield or format and you're either starting thirty or

752
00:35:57,360 --> 00:35:59,879
Speaker 1: thirty six outfielder, just call it like forty or even

753
00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:02,680
Speaker 1: forty five when you're talking utility bench bots. Is he

754
00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:06,919
Speaker 1: a top forty five outfielder. I think the audibly there's

755
00:36:07,120 --> 00:36:09,440
Speaker 1: all just stacked against him. If you're playing in a

756
00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:12,120
Speaker 1: standard size league, if you're playing NFBC leagues, you're playing

757
00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:15,640
Speaker 1: deeper for match NL only, than absolutely I would take

758
00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:18,080
Speaker 1: a chance. But I just want to be cautious of

759
00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:20,399
Speaker 1: who's watching. And if you're playing in a ten teamer

760
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:22,640
Speaker 1: and you're thinking all these guys are pickups, be very

761
00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:24,680
Speaker 1: very careful well, And I.

762
00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:27,480
Speaker 2: Want to point out too, like they've got a series

763
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:32,240
Speaker 2: against Cincinnati coming up, in which they're gonna be facing

764
00:36:32,360 --> 00:36:34,799
Speaker 2: three lefties. I don't even know if he's gonna play

765
00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:38,800
Speaker 2: for that series, right, he's also got a you know,

766
00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:43,200
Speaker 2: series that starts today against the Rangers. This will be

767
00:36:43,239 --> 00:36:45,880
Speaker 2: a good indication, right because he's going up against McKenzie

768
00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 2: gore today if he's in the lineup, and maybe he's

769
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:50,359
Speaker 2: gonna play against lefties. But I think it's a chance

770
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:53,560
Speaker 2: that he doesn't. And you know that means like half

771
00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:57,400
Speaker 2: of the week next week he's not. He's not usable

772
00:36:57,440 --> 00:37:01,000
Speaker 2: at all because he probably will be sitting because then

773
00:37:01,040 --> 00:37:05,799
Speaker 2: they finished that series against the Tigers and they've got

774
00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:09,319
Speaker 2: oh he got two writings, so you know, you might

775
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:11,560
Speaker 2: only be able to use him further the weekend, which

776
00:37:11,800 --> 00:37:13,920
Speaker 2: kind of isn't worth picking up for.

777
00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:17,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's kind of crazy. Five consecutive lefties and then

778
00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:19,279
Speaker 1: they get a couple of days with righty's and then

779
00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:22,440
Speaker 1: you get Scooble. So it could be a bit of

780
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:24,359
Speaker 1: a rough week for Owen case. He should just keep

781
00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:26,040
Speaker 1: that in mind if you're looking at adding him, or

782
00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:28,560
Speaker 1: if you already did pick him up, it might not

783
00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:30,480
Speaker 1: be a great little stretch coming up for it.

784
00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:33,440
Speaker 2: You may want to pivot real fast and go pick

785
00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:34,480
Speaker 2: someone else up if you can't.

786
00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:36,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, especially in those shallow leagues, Like if it's a

787
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:38,520
Speaker 1: fifteen teamer and you've picked him up already, I might

788
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:41,520
Speaker 1: just bench him for the period. Even that's not amazing,

789
00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:43,120
Speaker 1: but I think I'd prefer to do that in a

790
00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:46,840
Speaker 1: fifteen teamer, But the shallower formats, I wouldn't be opposed

791
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 1: to just immediately pivoting, which I know sounds crazy, but

792
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:52,640
Speaker 1: that is a really, really dark schedule he's got coming up.

793
00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:55,839
Speaker 1: This is a Welsh guy, Nolan Shannuell. He's been talking

794
00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:57,920
Speaker 1: him up quite a bit. He was talking up quite

795
00:37:57,920 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 1: a bit in the preseason too, so give him my

796
00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:01,760
Speaker 1: little hat tip to Welsh there. Although it is six games,

797
00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:03,759
Speaker 1: he does have a couple of home runs at this point,

798
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:05,399
Speaker 1: he's hitting two eighty. I've always thought that he could

799
00:38:05,480 --> 00:38:07,400
Speaker 1: hit for a good batting average, give you good on

800
00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:10,640
Speaker 1: base rates. But is there any more power potentially in

801
00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:12,680
Speaker 1: the tank here? I am a little bit more skeptical

802
00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:14,880
Speaker 1: on that front, but I think that Shanwell could be

803
00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:17,279
Speaker 1: like a fifteen home run guy who hits two eighty,

804
00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:19,200
Speaker 1: and there is some value in that. Have you found

805
00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:20,440
Speaker 1: yourself picking him up anywhere.

806
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:25,840
Speaker 2: No, No, I mean I think he is a James

807
00:38:25,960 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 2: Loney type. Right, is a guy who can you know, walk,

808
00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:33,520
Speaker 2: he can you know, deliver a decent average twelve to

809
00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:34,960
Speaker 2: sixteen homers.

810
00:38:35,520 --> 00:38:35,719
Speaker 1: Yeah?

811
00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:38,680
Speaker 2: Does that play in most leagues though these days? Right?

812
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 3: Like that?

813
00:38:39,280 --> 00:38:42,239
Speaker 2: That that's fine and on base percentage league, because he's

814
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:45,760
Speaker 2: going to deliver probably a really really good on base percentage.

815
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:49,040
Speaker 2: It's good in a fifteen team league where a the

816
00:38:49,200 --> 00:38:52,080
Speaker 2: lack of depth can really hurt and getting a guy

817
00:38:52,080 --> 00:38:54,480
Speaker 2: who does not hurt you, especially in the batting average apartment,

818
00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:56,800
Speaker 2: can be really valuable. But if you're playing in a

819
00:38:57,040 --> 00:39:00,120
Speaker 2: you know, standard ten a standard twelve team league, I

820
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:03,600
Speaker 2: don't think that's enough juice, like I especially from your

821
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 2: first base spot. Nah, I need something more than that.

822
00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:10,080
Speaker 2: So and I don't see that changing for Shan Well.

823
00:39:10,160 --> 00:39:12,080
Speaker 2: He does not elevate the ball enough. He doesn't hit

824
00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 2: the ball hard enough, Like in spite of the fact

825
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:18,640
Speaker 2: that like he has you know, two homers already, he

826
00:39:18,719 --> 00:39:22,080
Speaker 2: only has one barrel. So one of those somers was

827
00:39:22,120 --> 00:39:24,680
Speaker 2: not a barrel, and he's got a sub thirty hard

828
00:39:24,760 --> 00:39:25,360
Speaker 2: hit percentage.

829
00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:29,239
Speaker 1: No, thanks, Yeah, I think I am I think I'm

830
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:32,200
Speaker 1: on your wave here, like I want to believe. I

831
00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:35,360
Speaker 1: want to see a twenty and ten type of season

832
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:37,720
Speaker 1: from him where he hits three hundred. But that's probably

833
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:40,160
Speaker 1: expecting too much, especially in this lineup. I don't think

834
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:42,480
Speaker 1: the speed is really going to play so much. He'll

835
00:39:42,520 --> 00:39:46,000
Speaker 1: chip in a couple, But I think the main point

836
00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:48,680
Speaker 1: that you made there is like the first basement, I

837
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:50,520
Speaker 1: don't put you need from your first basement is just

838
00:39:50,600 --> 00:39:52,800
Speaker 1: so much higher than this unless you are playing in

839
00:39:52,880 --> 00:39:54,759
Speaker 1: such a deep league. If you're playing in fifteen team

840
00:39:54,800 --> 00:39:56,920
Speaker 1: mix league and he's your corner infielder, you could make

841
00:39:56,960 --> 00:39:59,000
Speaker 1: it work. You're playing in a twelve team league and

842
00:39:59,000 --> 00:40:01,400
Speaker 1: he's your starting first base, I think you might be

843
00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:03,799
Speaker 1: in a little bit of trouble. So yeah, skewing more

844
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:05,839
Speaker 1: to the deeper leagues with Shanwell, it's not great team

845
00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:09,040
Speaker 1: context around him either, So more of a pass but

846
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:11,360
Speaker 1: an interesting start to the year that I will be

847
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:14,439
Speaker 1: keeping track of. Just maybe he can, you know, add

848
00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:15,920
Speaker 1: to the power, maybe he can raise the ball a

849
00:40:15,920 --> 00:40:19,040
Speaker 1: little bit more. But I think you're talking. You talk

850
00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:21,680
Speaker 1: me out of him a little bit there. Chase the

851
00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:25,440
Speaker 1: latter I saved. Maybe the most interesting name for last year.

852
00:40:25,520 --> 00:40:27,319
Speaker 1: Maybe he is not the most interesting name. It depends

853
00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:29,520
Speaker 1: who you're talking to. But Chase the Latter has been

854
00:40:29,560 --> 00:40:32,560
Speaker 1: off to a phenomenal start to the season. He has

855
00:40:32,680 --> 00:40:34,759
Speaker 1: four home runs in the first six games of the year.

856
00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:37,839
Speaker 1: But there are also some serious flaws. I think would

857
00:40:37,880 --> 00:40:40,839
Speaker 1: Chase the lotterer massive strikeout rate to begin the year,

858
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:43,600
Speaker 1: which maybe it continues, maybe it doesn't. He's not walking

859
00:40:43,880 --> 00:40:45,600
Speaker 1: and again, these are things that in the minor leagues

860
00:40:45,680 --> 00:40:48,000
Speaker 1: he has been doing, so I'm not saying it's never

861
00:40:48,120 --> 00:40:50,359
Speaker 1: gonna happen, but he's striking out a lot against major

862
00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:52,880
Speaker 1: league pitching and he's not walking a ton. He fouled

863
00:40:52,920 --> 00:40:55,200
Speaker 1: a ball off his foot the other day and you know,

864
00:40:55,280 --> 00:40:56,680
Speaker 1: gave us a little bit of a scare. But that's

865
00:40:56,760 --> 00:40:59,040
Speaker 1: kind of in the In the profile with the latter,

866
00:40:59,400 --> 00:41:01,000
Speaker 1: he is going to get heard at some point. There

867
00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:03,520
Speaker 1: are just so many injuries that I'm feeling like if

868
00:41:03,560 --> 00:41:05,480
Speaker 1: somebody picked him up here and they think they've struck gold,

869
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:07,799
Speaker 1: they'd be much better off looking to trade him now

870
00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 1: justin do you agree with that? Huh man?

871
00:41:12,880 --> 00:41:16,040
Speaker 2: I don't know. I I yeah, there's been a lot

872
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:18,560
Speaker 2: of injuries and The health is the scary part about

873
00:41:18,640 --> 00:41:20,400
Speaker 2: Chase the latter. But when he's on the field, he

874
00:41:20,520 --> 00:41:22,879
Speaker 2: is an elite talent. You know, he's a top twenty

875
00:41:22,920 --> 00:41:27,520
Speaker 2: five prospect. They they gave him the job out of

876
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:31,040
Speaker 2: camp for a reason. They believe in this guy. Yeah,

877
00:41:31,120 --> 00:41:33,880
Speaker 2: the underlying skills are a little messy right now, but

878
00:41:33,920 --> 00:41:36,640
Speaker 2: it's super early and you know, like I said, like

879
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 2: those are gonna change very quickly. He's being really aggressive

880
00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:42,520
Speaker 2: of the plate because he's hitting the ball so damn

881
00:41:42,600 --> 00:41:45,359
Speaker 2: well right now. So like I'm not super worried about

882
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:48,640
Speaker 2: swinging strike rig being high, or the zone contact being lower,

883
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:51,960
Speaker 2: the OA swing being high, like, because like he is

884
00:41:52,120 --> 00:41:54,439
Speaker 2: so on fire. He's just like he's swinging everything because

885
00:41:54,440 --> 00:41:56,920
Speaker 2: everything he hits goes out of the park. That will

886
00:41:57,000 --> 00:41:59,560
Speaker 2: change his pictures adjust to him. He readjusts back. I

887
00:41:59,560 --> 00:42:01,319
Speaker 2: think you'll back to being a guy who doesness, sing

888
00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:04,320
Speaker 2: out his own more, that walks more, that makes better content,

889
00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:06,880
Speaker 2: or makes more consistent contact with him his own. He

890
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:09,080
Speaker 2: doesn't need you right now because he's just on fire.

891
00:42:10,120 --> 00:42:12,520
Speaker 2: The biggest issue is the health, right this guy's not

892
00:42:12,640 --> 00:42:15,719
Speaker 2: stayed healthy at all throughout the minor leagues, but he's

893
00:42:15,719 --> 00:42:18,520
Speaker 2: still young. And we have seen plenty of guys in

894
00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:23,640
Speaker 2: the past who had bad health track records throughout the

895
00:42:23,719 --> 00:42:27,399
Speaker 2: minor leagues, and then all of a sudden, they get

896
00:42:27,480 --> 00:42:31,120
Speaker 2: better trainers, they get you know, better weight room, uh

897
00:42:31,360 --> 00:42:35,120
Speaker 2: you know, uh, you know guys and coaches and things

898
00:42:35,239 --> 00:42:38,560
Speaker 2: like that, and all of a sudden they find health

899
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:42,200
Speaker 2: and he's still super super young. I just don't know

900
00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:45,719
Speaker 2: how you don't battle this guy, like I understand, like

901
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:49,680
Speaker 2: the smart move is to say sell now while he's

902
00:42:49,880 --> 00:42:54,080
Speaker 2: while he's healthy and crushing it. But honestly, I think

903
00:42:54,120 --> 00:42:56,279
Speaker 2: it's a by high. I think I'm I think I'm

904
00:42:56,400 --> 00:43:01,279
Speaker 2: going to the Chase still lotder, you know, manager in

905
00:43:01,400 --> 00:43:04,759
Speaker 2: my league, and I'm going, what do you want for him?

906
00:43:05,040 --> 00:43:06,799
Speaker 2: He just got hurt? Man, this guy's got a lot

907
00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:09,560
Speaker 2: of injury history, right, yeah, Like, what do you want?

908
00:43:09,640 --> 00:43:11,480
Speaker 2: And I'll pay full market freight because I think this

909
00:43:11,560 --> 00:43:13,080
Speaker 2: guy is really really good. I think he's going to

910
00:43:13,080 --> 00:43:13,480
Speaker 2: be a star.

911
00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:15,759
Speaker 1: What do you think full market freight is at this point?

912
00:43:15,840 --> 00:43:18,080
Speaker 1: Is it a top one hundred ADP guy? Is it?

913
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:18,520
Speaker 2: Yeah?

914
00:43:18,760 --> 00:43:19,640
Speaker 1: Do you think so? Yeah?

915
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:22,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it is. I think it's yeah, And

916
00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:23,960
Speaker 2: I think I think I would pay that.

917
00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:27,920
Speaker 1: So let's say it was just sticking like in the

918
00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:31,560
Speaker 1: same general vicinity. If it was like a Rose Arena Springer,

919
00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:34,480
Speaker 1: Mike Harris, is that too much for you? That range?

920
00:43:34,680 --> 00:43:38,799
Speaker 2: I would trade Harris, I would trade Springer. I don't

921
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:41,280
Speaker 2: know that I would trade a Rose Arena because Springer's

922
00:43:41,320 --> 00:43:44,680
Speaker 2: got the same health issues, right, Yeah, Like Springer gets

923
00:43:44,760 --> 00:43:47,279
Speaker 2: hurt too, and he's you know what thirty six or

924
00:43:47,320 --> 00:43:49,680
Speaker 2: something like that. I can't remember off the top of

925
00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:52,120
Speaker 2: my head. Like in Harris, Like we saw the downside

926
00:43:52,160 --> 00:43:55,320
Speaker 2: of Harris last year, right, Like the fact that Harris

927
00:43:55,480 --> 00:43:57,000
Speaker 2: was even going where it was going was kind of

928
00:43:57,000 --> 00:43:59,920
Speaker 2: insane to me, Like there should have been a far

929
00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:04,360
Speaker 2: bigger discout. Yeah, I think I would do that, So you're.

930
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:07,480
Speaker 1: In, okay, I'm talking myself more into it. I just

931
00:44:07,560 --> 00:44:10,400
Speaker 1: think the injuries are so prevalent in my brain. But

932
00:44:10,480 --> 00:44:12,760
Speaker 1: then you have, like you mentioned examples of guys. Brandon

933
00:44:12,840 --> 00:44:15,479
Speaker 1: Nemo comes to mind. It wasn't in the minor leagues.

934
00:44:15,520 --> 00:44:17,120
Speaker 1: It was in the major leagues. Brandon Nemo every year

935
00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:19,960
Speaker 1: was a guy who'd play seventy to ninety games. In

936
00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:22,400
Speaker 1: each of the last four years, it's been one fifty plus,

937
00:44:22,880 --> 00:44:26,759
Speaker 1: So guys can shake that injury prone label. I just

938
00:44:26,960 --> 00:44:29,880
Speaker 1: I worry about investing in a guy with such a

939
00:44:30,040 --> 00:44:32,600
Speaker 1: small major league example size, with the injury to go

940
00:44:32,680 --> 00:44:35,160
Speaker 1: along with it. But I think the skill set is phenomenal.

941
00:44:35,200 --> 00:44:37,600
Speaker 1: And I know I mentioned the high strikeout right, things

942
00:44:37,600 --> 00:44:41,360
Speaker 1: of that nature. They will normalize. I just I don't know.

943
00:44:41,400 --> 00:44:44,000
Speaker 1: Maybe it's just the way that I like to lay more.

944
00:44:44,040 --> 00:44:46,600
Speaker 1: I put more stock into track records, I think maybe

945
00:44:46,680 --> 00:44:49,520
Speaker 1: than I should sometimes, and I discount the rookies without

946
00:44:49,520 --> 00:44:51,960
Speaker 1: as much. I get it, record, I get it.

947
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:54,479
Speaker 2: But here here's my question. You're right, let's talk about

948
00:44:54,520 --> 00:45:00,080
Speaker 2: those those four guys, the water Springer Michael Harris in

949
00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:03,640
Speaker 2: a Rose Arena. If I told you one of them

950
00:45:04,600 --> 00:45:07,240
Speaker 2: was a top ten player at the end of the season,

951
00:45:07,840 --> 00:45:08,560
Speaker 2: isn't it de latter?

952
00:45:11,680 --> 00:45:13,600
Speaker 1: It might be Springer for me because he did it

953
00:45:13,719 --> 00:45:14,160
Speaker 1: last year.

954
00:45:15,160 --> 00:45:16,440
Speaker 2: He wasn't a top ten player.

955
00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:18,560
Speaker 1: He was like the twelfth, thirteenth player or something.

956
00:45:18,640 --> 00:45:22,439
Speaker 2: Okay, But like the upside, like the upside, pick the guy,

957
00:45:23,080 --> 00:45:24,680
Speaker 2: Pick the guy, especially if you're in a ten or

958
00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:27,399
Speaker 2: twelve team league. Right, there's value on the waiver wider.

959
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:29,160
Speaker 2: Replace the guy when he gets hurt. You're gonna have

960
00:45:29,239 --> 00:45:32,320
Speaker 2: il spots in most leagues. Like, pick the guy you

961
00:45:32,400 --> 00:45:33,960
Speaker 2: think has the best upside to go with him.

962
00:45:34,480 --> 00:45:36,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, what what would be your expected stat line? Like,

963
00:45:37,000 --> 00:45:39,000
Speaker 1: let's say de latter plays one hundred and fifty games

964
00:45:39,080 --> 00:45:41,680
Speaker 1: this year, is it thirty plus homers? Like, what would

965
00:45:41,680 --> 00:45:42,680
Speaker 1: be the number you're hoping for?

966
00:45:44,640 --> 00:45:48,359
Speaker 2: I think you're looking at a guy who could potentially

967
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:54,600
Speaker 2: be like a yeah, twenty seven to thirty, you know,

968
00:45:54,800 --> 00:45:58,640
Speaker 2: two homer guy with really good counting stats. You have

969
00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:01,040
Speaker 2: some chippen stolen bases, probably no more than you know,

970
00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:04,040
Speaker 2: four or five something like that, but that can hit

971
00:46:04,239 --> 00:46:08,920
Speaker 2: like two eighty mm okay, right, Like I mean I

972
00:46:09,080 --> 00:46:12,480
Speaker 2: was like, we're talking about a guy who you know

973
00:46:12,960 --> 00:46:16,440
Speaker 2: had you know, honestly you know, prior to Triple A

974
00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:21,120
Speaker 2: last year, had elite zone contact numbers, elite plate skills,

975
00:46:21,719 --> 00:46:25,319
Speaker 2: like you know, talking about you know, five four three

976
00:46:25,480 --> 00:46:29,320
Speaker 2: percent swinging strike rates, ninety two percent zone contact in

977
00:46:29,360 --> 00:46:32,920
Speaker 2: Triple A in twenty twenty four. Like, and there's power.

978
00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:36,680
Speaker 2: There's there's really good power. So maybe maybe he isn't

979
00:46:36,760 --> 00:46:42,800
Speaker 2: because he doesn't run. Maybe there isn't like top ten upside,

980
00:46:43,200 --> 00:46:46,600
Speaker 2: but like top twenty five. I think he's there, man, Like,

981
00:46:46,640 --> 00:46:48,840
Speaker 2: I think there's that ability, and I think I'm I

982
00:46:48,960 --> 00:46:52,040
Speaker 2: think I I think the floor now, the floor in

983
00:46:52,080 --> 00:46:53,840
Speaker 2: a Rose rain is higher, right, or Rose Raina is

984
00:46:53,920 --> 00:46:55,160
Speaker 2: like twenty twenty every year.

985
00:46:55,400 --> 00:46:56,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, you're never.

986
00:46:56,040 --> 00:46:58,000
Speaker 2: Gonna get a great batting average, but he's twenty twenty

987
00:46:58,040 --> 00:47:00,120
Speaker 2: every year. So like, I think I'd still take a

988
00:47:00,200 --> 00:47:02,240
Speaker 2: Rose Arena because I think the floor is that much safer.

989
00:47:02,400 --> 00:47:07,440
Speaker 2: But the floor on Michael Harris, the floor on you know,

990
00:47:07,520 --> 00:47:10,840
Speaker 2: George Springer isn't that much higher than the floor on

991
00:47:10,960 --> 00:47:13,360
Speaker 2: Chase the latter, And I think the upside is just

992
00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:15,600
Speaker 2: as much there for a guy like the latter.

993
00:47:16,320 --> 00:47:19,160
Speaker 1: I think that's honestly, really well put and totally fair

994
00:47:19,280 --> 00:47:22,080
Speaker 1: the latter, you know, outside of the injury trouble, the

995
00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:25,520
Speaker 1: talent has always always been there. So maybe I'm not

996
00:47:25,600 --> 00:47:29,000
Speaker 1: putting enough stock into the prospect patigree and how he's

997
00:47:29,040 --> 00:47:31,320
Speaker 1: looked in this first week or so. But let us know,

998
00:47:31,440 --> 00:47:33,080
Speaker 1: let us know down below. Would you take the latter?

999
00:47:33,120 --> 00:47:35,600
Speaker 1: Would you take Springer? Would you take Harris or Rosa Rena?

1000
00:47:35,880 --> 00:47:38,239
Speaker 1: Would you be aiming even higher potentially if you're trying

1001
00:47:38,280 --> 00:47:41,560
Speaker 1: to trade Chase the latter? Justin lots of fun today. Man.

1002
00:47:41,840 --> 00:47:43,800
Speaker 1: Let the people know where they can keep up with

1003
00:47:43,880 --> 00:47:46,160
Speaker 1: your work here at Fantasy Pros and also other stuff

1004
00:47:46,200 --> 00:47:46,680
Speaker 1: you got going on.

1005
00:47:47,440 --> 00:47:49,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm writing four times a week at Fantasy Pros.

1006
00:47:49,840 --> 00:47:53,319
Speaker 2: I'm writing, you know, five times a week at Fangrafts.

1007
00:47:53,719 --> 00:47:56,040
Speaker 2: You can hear me on this or on the Sleeper

1008
00:47:56,080 --> 00:47:58,960
Speaker 2: and the Bus podcast and the Friends of Fantasy Benefits

1009
00:47:59,000 --> 00:48:01,239
Speaker 2: podcast and hopefully hear a little bit more often.

1010
00:48:01,880 --> 00:48:03,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, you might be seeing a little bit more of

1011
00:48:04,000 --> 00:48:06,160
Speaker 1: mister Mason on the channel, so make sure you guys

1012
00:48:06,239 --> 00:48:09,960
Speaker 1: are following along at Justin Mason FWFB. I'm at Joel

1013
00:48:10,040 --> 00:48:12,000
Speaker 1: Rico ninety nine. That will do it for us today.

1014
00:48:12,040 --> 00:48:14,239
Speaker 1: Like I said, let us know in the comments who

1015
00:48:14,480 --> 00:48:17,560
Speaker 1: are you buying into. It's very early, but there are

1016
00:48:18,200 --> 00:48:20,239
Speaker 1: some legitimate breakouts that are going to be had from

1017
00:48:20,280 --> 00:48:21,799
Speaker 1: this list. Some of them will be on the waiver

1018
00:48:21,880 --> 00:48:23,879
Speaker 1: wire in a week. But what do you guys think?

1019
00:48:24,040 --> 00:48:26,279
Speaker 1: Let us know down below. For Justin Mason, I am

1020
00:48:26,320 --> 00:48:28,080
Speaker 1: Joe A. Rica. We'll talk to you next time right

1021
00:48:28,120 --> 00:48:30,240
Speaker 1: here on the Fantasy Pros Baseball Podcast.

1022
00:48:30,640 --> 00:48:33,800
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball Podcast.

1023
00:48:34,080 --> 00:48:36,440
Speaker 3: If you love the show. The best freeway to support

1024
00:48:36,520 --> 00:48:39,400
Speaker 3: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts

1025
00:48:39,520 --> 00:48:43,160
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1026
00:48:43,239 --> 00:48:46,160
Speaker 3: Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube

1027
00:48:46,200 --> 00:48:48,360
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