WEBVTT - Markets Fall Amid New COVID-19 Variant 0:00:00.800 --> 0:00:04.040 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.920 my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring 0:00:06.960 --> 0:00:11.520 you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 0:00:11.560 --> 0:00:15.520 with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast 0:00:15.560 --> 0:00:18.479 called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:21.760 at Bloomberg dot com Slash podcast. Let's get to our 0:00:21.800 --> 0:00:25.040 next guest straight away. Danielle di Martino, Booth CEO and 0:00:25.079 --> 0:00:28.760 chief strategist for Quill Intelligence. Danielle, Yesterday, as I was 0:00:28.760 --> 0:00:30.800 watching football and eating turkey, I was just kind of 0:00:30.800 --> 0:00:32.839 flipping through my Twitter feed. I started seeing more and 0:00:32.880 --> 0:00:36.800 more mentions about this South African varying here and then 0:00:36.840 --> 0:00:39.400 you wake up this morning and boom, Europe trading off 0:00:39.400 --> 0:00:41.839 three percent equities. Uh, and here we've got the U 0:00:41.920 --> 0:00:45.680 S market. How are you trying to contextualize the news 0:00:45.760 --> 0:00:48.120 that we're getting today about this new variant as it 0:00:48.159 --> 0:00:52.640 relates to kind of just the overall economic outlook? You know, 0:00:52.920 --> 0:00:55.240 you know, I keep up this USA Today map of 0:00:55.240 --> 0:00:58.280 the United States, and two months ago there were only 0:00:58.360 --> 0:01:02.240 four cases up four states where there were COVID cases growing. 0:01:03.040 --> 0:01:05.240 I've had to flip the way that I tabulate now 0:01:05.640 --> 0:01:08.720 there are eleven There are eleven states now with cases falling, 0:01:09.160 --> 0:01:11.680 and the words the rest of the country has already 0:01:11.720 --> 0:01:14.760 got COVID cases rising. So I've been watching this pretty 0:01:14.760 --> 0:01:17.160 closely for the last month. So this has kind of 0:01:17.160 --> 0:01:19.319 been an accident waiting to happen if there's a new 0:01:19.400 --> 0:01:22.759 variant that's going to come on top of this. So 0:01:22.880 --> 0:01:24.600 we've we've already got the bulk of the country. And 0:01:24.640 --> 0:01:26.920 trust me when I say, my my seventy five year 0:01:26.959 --> 0:01:31.840 old mother her birthday's Sunday, God lover um. She and 0:01:31.880 --> 0:01:35.400 her friends, they pay attention to these data. And because 0:01:35.400 --> 0:01:38.280 we know that the savings, in fact, this was a 0:01:38.280 --> 0:01:40.520 good terminal story, because we know that the savings are 0:01:40.520 --> 0:01:44.120 concentrated in the hands of the wealthiest and the oldest, 0:01:44.880 --> 0:01:49.200 that really has implications for US consumption, which is the economy. 0:01:49.400 --> 0:01:53.120 Because they pay attention to where COVID cases are rising 0:01:53.240 --> 0:01:55.760 and where they're not rising. They pay attention to these 0:01:55.800 --> 0:01:58.120 COVID headlines because they're the ones who who are going 0:01:58.160 --> 0:02:00.480 to tend to stay home as we head into this 0:02:00.520 --> 0:02:03.680 critical holiday season. And so Danielle, given that you have 0:02:03.840 --> 0:02:05.920 been following this closely, and like you said, I mean, 0:02:05.960 --> 0:02:08.440 this was an accident waiting to happen. If you look 0:02:08.480 --> 0:02:11.360 at US cases, I'm still curious. I mean, if you 0:02:11.400 --> 0:02:14.120 do look at the reaction in this stock market right now, 0:02:14.160 --> 0:02:17.079 I'm looking at the SMP five hundred down almost two percent, 0:02:17.160 --> 0:02:21.200 biggest drops in September. Is this justified or at what 0:02:21.320 --> 0:02:25.640 point does this become maybe an overreaction? Well, you know, 0:02:25.680 --> 0:02:27.680 it's hard to say. I've been watching the movement decks 0:02:27.760 --> 0:02:30.320 very closely, and that's what I follow much more closely 0:02:30.440 --> 0:02:33.760 than UM than the VICS index. I followed treasury volatility 0:02:33.800 --> 0:02:36.320 much more closely. And you know, we've been seeing it 0:02:36.400 --> 0:02:41.200 in up very very rapidly, so the highest levels since 0:02:41.240 --> 0:02:44.079 we have the pandemic breakout. So the bond market has 0:02:44.120 --> 0:02:48.160 been screaming that there's risk in the system for weeks now, 0:02:48.480 --> 0:02:50.880 and we've seen the yield between the two year and 0:02:50.919 --> 0:02:54.079 the ten year treasury slam down to one basis points 0:02:54.400 --> 0:02:58.480 despite the increase in the shorter maturity treasuries, because the 0:02:58.560 --> 0:03:01.440 markets are concerned. At the FED, my former employer is 0:03:01.480 --> 0:03:04.760 going to be tightening at a at an increasingly fast 0:03:04.800 --> 0:03:07.760 pace going into two because even the most devilish as 0:03:07.760 --> 0:03:12.000 in Mary Daily out of San Francisco have advocated for 0:03:12.040 --> 0:03:15.600 a quicker tightening to combat the inflation. That I mean, 0:03:15.639 --> 0:03:17.880 I sent out a tweek that went viral a few 0:03:17.960 --> 0:03:21.000 days ago. There I've got almost a thousand. Like. All 0:03:21.000 --> 0:03:23.080 I did was take a photograph of Austin Mayer bacon 0:03:23.080 --> 0:03:26.959 in Dallas, Texas. It was ian there's something wrong. I 0:03:27.040 --> 0:03:31.919 saw that. So there's something wrong with inflations. And it's 0:03:31.919 --> 0:03:35.560 a regressive tax that hurts the lowest income earners the 0:03:35.600 --> 0:03:38.360 most at a time when there's been no legislation past. 0:03:38.840 --> 0:03:41.160 And the little cast that is coming to US families, 0:03:41.160 --> 0:03:43.280 which is the child tax credit, is set to roll 0:03:43.360 --> 0:03:48.200 off as of the December payment. Daniel Worth, the markets 0:03:48.280 --> 0:03:51.880 is certainly reacting to this variant news this morning, and 0:03:52.040 --> 0:03:54.760 actually on some decent volume. We were just noting earlier 0:03:54.800 --> 0:03:57.920 relative to obviously being a holiday, uh kind of day 0:03:57.920 --> 0:04:00.360 after on holiday. How do you think the FED looks 0:04:00.360 --> 0:04:04.720 at data points like you know what we're seeing today? Well, 0:04:04.720 --> 0:04:07.360 this this is a friendly reminder. Actually it's a very 0:04:07.480 --> 0:04:09.800 unfriendly reminder to the Fed that they waited too long 0:04:09.840 --> 0:04:13.320 to tighten and that they're tightening into a slowing economy 0:04:13.440 --> 0:04:16.640 that was always going to be vulnerable to the next 0:04:16.720 --> 0:04:19.120 COVID virant, and now that we do have the next 0:04:19.160 --> 0:04:21.800 code mutation on our hands, that we're that we're staring 0:04:21.839 --> 0:04:26.080 at again with forties states, with rising cases. It's it's 0:04:26.200 --> 0:04:30.480 very problematic for the FED to be pressured by politicians 0:04:30.480 --> 0:04:32.960 and there are quite a few politicis. Politicians have crawled 0:04:32.960 --> 0:04:35.440 out of their skins. When was the last time in 0:04:35.440 --> 0:04:38.640 your career you you heard quite a few politicians saying, gee, 0:04:38.680 --> 0:04:41.520 I think monetary policy needs to be tighter, and yet 0:04:41.960 --> 0:04:44.840 we have this chorus. So there's a lot of there's 0:04:44.839 --> 0:04:47.200 a lot of pressure to to to shift the narrative, 0:04:47.400 --> 0:04:50.920 especially with a hundred thousand print on jobless claims, there's 0:04:50.960 --> 0:04:54.279 a lot of pressure to shift shift the narrative away 0:04:54.279 --> 0:05:01.200 from maximum inclusive employment back to inflation. Yeah. Absolutely, definitely 0:05:01.600 --> 0:05:04.560 a tight wire act for high wire act for the 0:05:04.600 --> 0:05:07.280 FED continues. Danielle de Martino Booth, thank you so much 0:05:07.279 --> 0:05:10.640 for joining us. We really appreciate getting your perspective here, 0:05:10.720 --> 0:05:14.080 your learned perspective here on kind of a new kind 0:05:14.120 --> 0:05:16.360 of a you know, monkey wrench thrown into this market 0:05:16.360 --> 0:05:20.599 and economic outlook. Daniel DeMartino Booth and chief strategist at 0:05:20.680 --> 0:05:24.520 Quinn Intelligence. Also, as she mentioned earlier, former advisor at 0:05:24.560 --> 0:05:27.440 the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. So we always appreciate 0:05:27.440 --> 0:05:30.920 getting Danielle's view of the markets and of what this 0:05:30.960 --> 0:05:38.960 Federal Reserve may do big risk off day. Today's Charlie 0:05:39.000 --> 0:05:40.760 was just reporting let's get a look at what's happening 0:05:40.760 --> 0:05:43.520 with the small cap stocks. We do that every day 0:05:43.520 --> 0:05:46.320 at this time with Bloodmark Sucks editor Davilson. How's it going, Dave? 0:05:47.000 --> 0:05:49.599 Not well? I'm short. I mean the Russell two thousand 0:05:49.600 --> 0:05:52.600 down almost four and a half percent. That's more than 0:05:52.600 --> 0:05:56.839 twice as much as the today's trade. Energy stocks weighing 0:05:56.839 --> 0:05:59.880 on the Russell is all prices tumble. Uh. The index 0:06:00.040 --> 0:06:04.080 steepest decline belongs to Calan Patroleum, whose ticker is CPN 0:06:04.400 --> 0:06:08.760 or CPE. I'm sorry, Uh, that stock down nineteen percent. 0:06:09.320 --> 0:06:13.120 Laredo Petroleum ticker l p I is down seventy and 0:06:13.160 --> 0:06:16.360 a half percent. Matt Or Resources ticker mt d R 0:06:16.839 --> 0:06:19.960 is down thirty and a half percent. Hotel the resort 0:06:20.000 --> 0:06:22.840 owners are lower as well. Part of order decline among 0:06:22.920 --> 0:06:28.480 travel stocks, Ashford Hospitality Trust ticker HT is down sixteen percent, 0:06:29.000 --> 0:06:32.560 and the Grand Old Operies owner Ryman Hospitality ticker r 0:06:32.800 --> 0:06:35.640 HP is down about eleven and a half percent. Now 0:06:35.640 --> 0:06:38.640 two of the Rustle's biggest games belongs to companies that 0:06:38.680 --> 0:06:42.039 were named to the SMP small Caps six hundred indecks 0:06:42.120 --> 0:06:47.119 late Wednesday. Uh. They'll join that benchmark before uh next 0:06:47.160 --> 0:06:50.240 week's open on Thursday, U and one of them is 0:06:50.320 --> 0:06:53.440 cars dot Com ticker c a r s UH. The 0:06:53.480 --> 0:06:57.279 automotive side is up eighteen percent and UH the other 0:06:57.440 --> 0:07:00.600 is engineering company n V five. Glow will take her 0:07:00.839 --> 0:07:05.479 envy e e and that stock hired by about all right, 0:07:05.480 --> 0:07:08.000 Bloomberking stock seditor Dave Wilson, thank you so much. We 0:07:08.040 --> 0:07:12.240 appreciate it. All right, Black Friday people are shopping, you know. 0:07:12.280 --> 0:07:13.880 I know I'm gonna drive by the Short Hills mall 0:07:13.960 --> 0:07:16.880 later today and it will be back. The question is 0:07:17.120 --> 0:07:19.080 how are shopping malls doing in general? How is the 0:07:19.160 --> 0:07:22.000 real estate in the retail space doing. Let's check in 0:07:22.040 --> 0:07:24.680 with Jim Sullivan. He's a managing director and reet analysts 0:07:24.720 --> 0:07:27.160 at B T I G. Jim, thanks so much for 0:07:27.280 --> 0:07:29.800 joining us here. I know you've been covering the reets 0:07:29.920 --> 0:07:32.280 for a long time here. There was a time when, 0:07:32.760 --> 0:07:35.600 you know, you everybody just thought the retail brick and 0:07:35.600 --> 0:07:41.400 mortar business was literally going out of business. Has that happened? No, 0:07:41.600 --> 0:07:45.280 absolutely not Uh. And in fact, what we've seen this 0:07:45.360 --> 0:07:48.560 year is the two major mall red that we cover, 0:07:48.600 --> 0:07:52.680 Assignment Property Group in mace Rich, they're both up delivered 0:07:52.720 --> 0:07:58.680 total returns of proximately before today. UM. And they've done 0:07:58.680 --> 0:08:01.800 so because we've in a strong recovery and retail sales 0:08:02.080 --> 0:08:06.400 at the stores UM. And it's been consistent really since 0:08:06.720 --> 0:08:09.800 since going back to March. So UM. You know, the 0:08:09.840 --> 0:08:12.760 delta variant in August had a little bit of a 0:08:12.760 --> 0:08:16.200 slight negative impact, but it was short lived UM, and 0:08:16.320 --> 0:08:20.640 sales growth in September was robust so UM. The result 0:08:20.760 --> 0:08:24.080 is companies reported their third quarter beating rays quarter for 0:08:24.160 --> 0:08:26.840 both may Switch and Simon. So the stocks have done 0:08:26.920 --> 0:08:30.080 very well. And so we were talking to Bloomberg Intelligences 0:08:30.240 --> 0:08:33.040 who not' goyle earlier in the show, who is at 0:08:33.040 --> 0:08:36.000 the mall today? Uh? And it sounds like there's plenty 0:08:36.000 --> 0:08:38.880 of foot traffic. But I'm curious how you think about 0:08:38.920 --> 0:08:42.400 the risk of you know, these new variants, and in 0:08:42.440 --> 0:08:45.600 particular this one from South Africa, which we don't yet 0:08:45.640 --> 0:08:48.480 have a name yet. Maybe that's coming, But I mean, 0:08:48.480 --> 0:08:50.640 how do you how do you factor that in to 0:08:50.760 --> 0:08:54.120 your analysis because it almost feels like a black Swan 0:08:54.200 --> 0:08:56.720 event we don't know which is going to be a 0:08:56.760 --> 0:09:00.439 really big deal. Well, I think you know the comment 0:09:00.520 --> 0:09:03.920 you just made is obviously the key. How serious this going, 0:09:04.040 --> 0:09:07.400 this is going to be? UM? How serious the reaction 0:09:08.040 --> 0:09:11.440 for those who infected will be in the UM uh 0:09:11.600 --> 0:09:14.400 you know, how long they'll be um they'll be impacted 0:09:14.400 --> 0:09:16.760 by that remains to be seen. But if we make 0:09:16.760 --> 0:09:19.520 the analogy with what happened with the delta variant, which 0:09:19.920 --> 0:09:26.480 obviously increased infections substantially, UM, and that impacted the third quarter. 0:09:26.559 --> 0:09:29.480 When we look at the third quarter retail sales numbers, 0:09:30.120 --> 0:09:32.720 what we see and it will just say, as an example, 0:09:32.760 --> 0:09:36.120 apparel and accessories, which is kind of the key category 0:09:36.160 --> 0:09:38.880 for malls and for sales in the malls. You know, 0:09:38.920 --> 0:09:43.559 back in July UM clothing and clothing accessory stores their 0:09:43.600 --> 0:09:50.400 sales grew nine versus UM. In August that sales growth 0:09:50.920 --> 0:09:53.760 fled to eight percent, but in September it was backed 0:09:53.840 --> 0:09:57.760 up to just over We saw something similar in the 0:09:57.840 --> 0:10:00.640 hotel business as well, where we did see some travel 0:10:00.720 --> 0:10:04.280 numbers decline, and we saw that hotel occupancy rates and 0:10:04.360 --> 0:10:07.160 room rates slid at the same time in the same 0:10:07.200 --> 0:10:10.480 way and had a similar recovery. So that was the 0:10:10.520 --> 0:10:13.079 impact of the delta variant. Now, whether this variant is 0:10:13.120 --> 0:10:15.840 going to have a more severe impact or not remains 0:10:15.880 --> 0:10:19.280 to be seen with waiting for the information to see 0:10:19.280 --> 0:10:21.480 what impact it will have on sales. But if we 0:10:21.520 --> 0:10:24.200 make the analogy with the delta variant, it was about 0:10:24.200 --> 0:10:27.680 a thirty day impact. Jim, there's a you know, school 0:10:27.679 --> 0:10:30.199 thought out there in a retail that the the US 0:10:30.280 --> 0:10:33.280 is still overstored. What what what are you three companies 0:10:33.320 --> 0:10:35.400 that you fall say about that? Will there be a 0:10:35.400 --> 0:10:39.959 lot more closures? Um? I don't think so. I mean 0:10:40.000 --> 0:10:42.559 I've been following this space for a long time, as 0:10:42.600 --> 0:10:45.280 you noted, and I think as long as I've followed, 0:10:45.280 --> 0:10:47.800 if two things have always been true. One is this 0:10:48.040 --> 0:10:50.680 too much retail square footage when you look at square 0:10:50.679 --> 0:10:54.760 feet per capita in the country versus other major markets. However, 0:10:55.200 --> 0:10:57.840 there's never been enough of the best space. So you 0:10:57.840 --> 0:11:02.000 had mentioned um in your prepared comments. The Short Hills Mall, 0:11:02.400 --> 0:11:05.480 the short Hills mall cannot be expanded anymore. Um it 0:11:05.679 --> 0:11:09.040 is um it is capped out in terms of square footage, 0:11:09.600 --> 0:11:12.200 and yet in the zip code that its services has 0:11:12.200 --> 0:11:15.160 been a substantial amount of wealth created obviously over the 0:11:15.240 --> 0:11:17.760 last one to two years, both in terms of real 0:11:17.880 --> 0:11:21.360 estate prices and equity market prices. So spending power is 0:11:21.400 --> 0:11:23.719 increased and you have the square footage has it, so 0:11:24.080 --> 0:11:27.600 the result should be better productivity for the malls that 0:11:27.640 --> 0:11:30.960 are located in the best zip codes, and particularly big 0:11:31.000 --> 0:11:34.360 malls and suburban markets cannot be expanded. Jim, thank you 0:11:34.360 --> 0:11:36.360 so much for joining us. Really appreciate it. Jim Sullivan, 0:11:36.400 --> 0:11:39.480 Managing director and read analyst at b T I e G. 0:11:40.240 --> 0:11:43.240 Talking about the mall business again, Folks aren't flocking to 0:11:43.280 --> 0:11:50.440 the malls. It appears here as we do Black Friday protests. Yeah, 0:11:50.440 --> 0:11:52.000 we're gona stick here for another two hours with you. 0:11:52.040 --> 0:11:55.839 We've got these markets just moving pretty dramatically. I want 0:11:55.840 --> 0:11:58.320 to bring a guy Johnson Bloomberg News from London joining 0:11:58.400 --> 0:12:00.240 us for the next couple of hours. Guy, you as 0:12:00.240 --> 0:12:03.719 heady ripping day, very tough day in the footsie of 0:12:03.880 --> 0:12:06.839 three points six percent today. We were expecting to David 0:12:06.880 --> 0:12:09.240 to be a day that we would spend our day 0:12:09.240 --> 0:12:12.480 talking about shopping. Yes, it was meant to be Black Friday. 0:12:12.640 --> 0:12:16.200 It turns out it's Red Friday. And and we have 0:12:16.280 --> 0:12:19.520 been yeah, looking at some really brutal numbers. Um this 0:12:19.600 --> 0:12:21.720 as we try and figure out whether or not actually 0:12:22.120 --> 0:12:25.360 we are done with COVID, not done with COVID and 0:12:25.440 --> 0:12:28.000 we got COVID under control, or as COVID got us 0:12:28.080 --> 0:12:32.400 under control. Certainly today it feels like it is the latter, 0:12:33.080 --> 0:12:35.560 because this new variant to certainly spook markets. I think 0:12:35.600 --> 0:12:38.160 it's just a lack of information Paul, that we that 0:12:38.280 --> 0:12:40.200 we have at the moment that I think it's really 0:12:40.200 --> 0:12:43.000 spooky people. Everybody thought that they got their arms around 0:12:43.080 --> 0:12:46.840 understanding what delta and the variant was gonna mean, whether 0:12:46.960 --> 0:12:49.200 or not we would be able to control it with vaccine. Certainly, 0:12:49.200 --> 0:12:51.000 the evidence thus far has been that we were doing 0:12:51.000 --> 0:12:52.839 a fairly good job of that. Yes, we're seeing a 0:12:52.880 --> 0:12:55.960 pick up in Europe, but in areas where we have 0:12:56.000 --> 0:12:58.280 seen high vaccination levels, it does seem that we have 0:12:58.360 --> 0:13:02.120 our arms around it. Today that's been completely thrown out 0:13:02.120 --> 0:13:04.000 of the window. The real question is does the health 0:13:04.000 --> 0:13:07.319 care sector had the health care sector seen this one coming. 0:13:07.679 --> 0:13:12.000 Let's find out. Dr April Capoo, acute nurse practitioner and 0:13:12.640 --> 0:13:17.880 president of the Association of Nurse Practitioners, joining us. Now, Dr, 0:13:18.480 --> 0:13:21.079 let's just talk about what we've seen today and what 0:13:21.120 --> 0:13:24.320 we've learned today. A lot of people in financial markets 0:13:24.320 --> 0:13:27.840 have been caught by surprise by the emergence of a 0:13:28.040 --> 0:13:31.560 new variant that is much mutated and as a result, 0:13:31.640 --> 0:13:36.959 has the potential maybe to evade vaccines, to be more transmissible, 0:13:36.960 --> 0:13:40.520 to be potentially more deadly. As you, as a health 0:13:40.520 --> 0:13:43.600 care professional, had you expected like something like something like 0:13:43.640 --> 0:13:49.120 this would happen, Well, thank you, I agree with you, 0:13:49.240 --> 0:13:52.079 and I think what we know is that until we 0:13:52.160 --> 0:13:56.960 have more of our population fully vaccinated, we're going to 0:13:57.040 --> 0:14:01.040 continue to see the emergence of the variants, and the 0:14:01.120 --> 0:14:04.800 variants will continue to get more severe, the transmission rate 0:14:04.800 --> 0:14:07.640 will get higher. We know this because we know this 0:14:07.720 --> 0:14:12.000 is what happens with viruses, and so we need to 0:14:12.040 --> 0:14:16.160 get more of the population vaccinated. That's our number one defense. 0:14:17.360 --> 0:14:21.520 As far as what we're seeing today, still, the patients 0:14:21.560 --> 0:14:25.560 that are coming into the hospital, um, those the severe disease, 0:14:25.800 --> 0:14:30.280 those continue to remain the unvaccinated for the most parts 0:14:30.760 --> 0:14:35.400 or those that are very compromised, and it still remains 0:14:35.520 --> 0:14:38.720 to be the DELFA variant. Now what we're seeing in 0:14:38.760 --> 0:14:43.160 South Africa today. Yes, this has been um big breaking 0:14:43.200 --> 0:14:47.880 news for everyone and we are following it very closely 0:14:48.320 --> 0:14:50.760 and we have to see what happens with this variant. 0:14:51.080 --> 0:14:55.240 But in the meantime, it is continue to urge to 0:14:55.280 --> 0:14:58.280 answer questions, to get the word out, to make the 0:14:58.360 --> 0:15:01.960 vaccine available because it has been shown to be effective 0:15:02.000 --> 0:15:07.360 in reducing severity of disease, severity of illnesses and hospitalization 0:15:07.480 --> 0:15:10.880 and deaths. And so let's get people vaccinated as our 0:15:10.960 --> 0:15:16.000 number one tool. And then in the meantime, for those 0:15:16.040 --> 0:15:20.280 that cannot be vaccinated, they're not in eligible for whatever reason, 0:15:20.440 --> 0:15:25.840 wear the mask, get tested often. Um, but I completely 0:15:25.880 --> 0:15:28.560 agree we're going to continue to see these variants until 0:15:28.560 --> 0:15:32.120 we have more of our population vaccinated. So, Dr you're 0:15:32.640 --> 0:15:36.440 a professor at Vanderbilt University, one of the leading healthcare 0:15:36.800 --> 0:15:39.840 universities in the United States. It's also in a region 0:15:39.880 --> 0:15:41.880 of the country down to Nashville, Tennessee, that has had 0:15:41.920 --> 0:15:46.360 some challenges with vaccination rates. With mask wearing, You're on 0:15:46.400 --> 0:15:50.440 the front lines here. Do you have any confidence that 0:15:50.840 --> 0:15:54.200 we in the US, and more importantly in other parts 0:15:54.240 --> 0:16:00.440 of the world, can get vaccination rates materially higher. Well, 0:16:00.520 --> 0:16:03.040 what we're saying, according to the CDC, now we've had 0:16:03.080 --> 0:16:08.000 about six of our population across the US is fully vaccinated, 0:16:08.520 --> 0:16:11.360 so that means they've had two doses, and then we've 0:16:11.360 --> 0:16:14.760 had over thirty seven million that have gotten boosters, and 0:16:14.760 --> 0:16:18.320 now all adults are eligible for boosters. So we are 0:16:18.440 --> 0:16:22.880 seeing movement in that direction. But Tennessee, we remain lower 0:16:23.320 --> 0:16:27.280 UM or more around fifty of our population is fully vaccinated, 0:16:27.600 --> 0:16:30.000 and so that still means we have lots of work 0:16:30.080 --> 0:16:32.640 to do. I'm a nurse practitioner. I spend a lot 0:16:32.720 --> 0:16:36.360 of time out in the community talking to communities about 0:16:36.440 --> 0:16:40.200 the importance of vaccinating and answering questions. These are great 0:16:40.280 --> 0:16:43.040 questions that they bring up every day as to why 0:16:43.080 --> 0:16:47.320 they're not getting vaccinated. Until answering those questions, UM is 0:16:47.440 --> 0:16:52.360 very important. Are you expecting that as we head into 0:16:52.640 --> 0:16:57.480 into winter that we are going to be seeing higher 0:16:57.480 --> 0:16:59.480 case counts? I appreciate that we're Novembre about to go 0:16:59.560 --> 0:17:01.760 into the say, but but I imagine it's still pretty 0:17:01.800 --> 0:17:04.320 warm where you are, are we going to see high 0:17:04.320 --> 0:17:06.560 case counts? You just give me a number that's in 0:17:06.600 --> 0:17:11.800 the fifties of the population vaccinated. Eastern Europe, which is 0:17:11.840 --> 0:17:16.240 in the mid sixties has seen an absolute explosion of 0:17:16.320 --> 0:17:21.720 cases over the last few weeks. And that's what we're 0:17:21.720 --> 0:17:26.200 seeing in the US. We're saying seeing in case counts. 0:17:26.240 --> 0:17:30.640 We're seeing that as well. UM. However, we are not 0:17:30.720 --> 0:17:35.320 seeing the dramatic increase in hospitalizations and deaths. So that's 0:17:35.440 --> 0:17:39.080 that's the number that's very important to follow. UM. But 0:17:39.320 --> 0:17:41.840 we are seeing an increase in case counts, and so 0:17:41.960 --> 0:17:45.840 what is to come after that is very important to follow. UM. 0:17:45.920 --> 0:17:48.760 We need to make sure testing is available to everyone 0:17:48.880 --> 0:17:51.800 everywhere so that they can get tested as soon as 0:17:51.800 --> 0:17:55.560 they experience signs their symptoms. UM, even if they if 0:17:55.600 --> 0:18:00.400 they are unvaccinated and they're going somewhere, get tested where MASK. 0:18:00.920 --> 0:18:03.240 We have to do whatever we can to reduce the 0:18:03.320 --> 0:18:06.760 transmission rate UM so that we can keep our numbers 0:18:06.760 --> 0:18:12.040 of hospitalizations and deaths down. That you mentioned fully vaccinated, 0:18:12.080 --> 0:18:17.800 that's tennessee, but in the United States we're around fully vaccinated. 0:18:18.600 --> 0:18:21.359 All right, Dr April Capo, thank you so much. We 0:18:21.400 --> 0:18:25.040 really appreciate. Dr April Capo, acute nurse practitioner and president 0:18:25.080 --> 0:18:29.679 of the American Association Nurse Practitioners, also professor at Vanderbilt University. 0:18:29.720 --> 0:18:33.040 And again, guy, it's just challenging. It just seems like 0:18:33.080 --> 0:18:35.400 once you get a handle on one wave delta, here 0:18:35.400 --> 0:18:38.880 comes another one potentially. Well, yeah, that is what we're 0:18:38.880 --> 0:18:41.639 dealing with here. We The problem is we just don't 0:18:41.680 --> 0:18:45.800 know enough about it at the moment to form informed, 0:18:46.240 --> 0:18:50.239 uh sort of decision making. We're cutting flights. But the 0:18:50.440 --> 0:18:52.280 but the suggestion of all the people I've been talking 0:18:52.320 --> 0:18:55.760 to today is that basically this is probably already spread, 0:18:56.119 --> 0:19:03.560 we should expect it to pick up. Well, I'll admit 0:19:03.600 --> 0:19:05.520 something to you all, um, A lot of the smart 0:19:05.560 --> 0:19:09.400 kids are talking about distributed finance. I don't really know 0:19:09.480 --> 0:19:12.359 what it means, but fortunately our next guest does, Cam Harvey. 0:19:12.720 --> 0:19:16.880 He's a professor finance at Duke University's Fuqua School of Business, 0:19:16.880 --> 0:19:19.760 my former professor when I was a student at Fuqua. Camp. 0:19:19.800 --> 0:19:21.960 Thanks so much for joining us here. I know you've 0:19:21.960 --> 0:19:24.240 got a new book out, which is really why this 0:19:24.359 --> 0:19:26.560 is great to chat with you, entitled Defy in the 0:19:26.560 --> 0:19:33.520 Future of Finance. What is what is defying. So decentralized 0:19:33.560 --> 0:19:38.240 finance is a way to transact where you kind of 0:19:38.240 --> 0:19:41.080 avoid a lot of middle people. So, for example, if 0:19:41.080 --> 0:19:43.159 you want to buy or sell stock, you need to 0:19:43.200 --> 0:19:46.720 deal with a broker, you need to go to a 0:19:46.760 --> 0:19:51.840 stock exchange and things like that, Whereas in decentralized finance, 0:19:51.880 --> 0:19:55.640 you're training with an algorithm, so the algorithm doesn't care 0:19:55.680 --> 0:19:58.520 if you're a buyer or seller. You sell or you 0:19:58.640 --> 0:20:02.119 buy with algorithm. So it takes a lot of the 0:20:02.160 --> 0:20:05.720 middle layer out, and decentralized finance does a lot more 0:20:06.000 --> 0:20:10.760 because it's not just trading of securities. It could be UH, 0:20:10.880 --> 0:20:16.760 savings and lending, UH, it could be tokenization, UH, it 0:20:16.760 --> 0:20:19.600 could be insurance. That. There's many different things that are 0:20:19.640 --> 0:20:23.680 possible in this space, but the key thing is that 0:20:23.760 --> 0:20:26.520 you take a lot of that middle layer out. And 0:20:26.600 --> 0:20:31.120 when you do that, it's very interesting because today, if 0:20:31.200 --> 0:20:35.159 you buy a stock, for example, you can buy it 0:20:35.600 --> 0:20:40.040 pretty instantly, but the settlement of the stock it actually 0:20:40.080 --> 0:20:46.159 takes two days, whereas in this space the settlement is immediate. 0:20:46.480 --> 0:20:50.239 So there's no difference between execution of a trade and 0:20:50.280 --> 0:20:55.399 the settlement of a trade that regulates feel about that Professor, Um, 0:20:55.440 --> 0:20:58.760 we spend a lot of time over the last few years, uh, 0:20:59.000 --> 0:21:02.879 making sure that that a lot of price action on 0:21:02.960 --> 0:21:08.120 financial markets is centrally cleared. It allows visibility, it allows safety. 0:21:08.200 --> 0:21:14.600 Does this allow for that? So on the visibility, everything 0:21:14.920 --> 0:21:19.919 is transparent in these markets. So the current markets are 0:21:19.960 --> 0:21:23.399 the markets that are actually opaque. And it's also the 0:21:23.440 --> 0:21:26.640 case that the same asset could be traded on multiple 0:21:27.160 --> 0:21:31.240 decentralized exchanges. And and let me be clear here, um, 0:21:31.280 --> 0:21:37.520 popular exchanges like finance and coin base, they're not decentralized finance. 0:21:37.920 --> 0:21:44.000 They're just centralized broker exchanges that people actually deal with. 0:21:44.680 --> 0:21:47.880 And decentralized finance, you're just dealing with an algorithm. And look, 0:21:48.560 --> 0:21:51.879 to me, it's not too hard to imagine in the 0:21:51.920 --> 0:21:55.240 future we're gonna be dealing with algorithms, not just in finance, 0:21:55.920 --> 0:21:58.800 but in finance. It's kind of low hanging fruit to 0:21:58.840 --> 0:22:02.080 actually do this as sort of the regulators, um, And 0:22:02.119 --> 0:22:05.159 there's multiple layers here. Uh, this is a new space, 0:22:05.840 --> 0:22:11.080 and they've got a tough job because obviously cryptocurrency wasn't 0:22:11.080 --> 0:22:15.600 detailed in the nine three Securities Act, so they need 0:22:15.640 --> 0:22:20.639 to improvise. But they need the balance and what I 0:22:20.680 --> 0:22:24.919 mean by that is nobody wants people taking the advantage 0:22:24.920 --> 0:22:28.240 of by people in the crypto space, and we've seen 0:22:28.440 --> 0:22:32.359 some of that already. But if the regulations are too 0:22:32.400 --> 0:22:37.359 harsh and they reduced that risk to zero, then these 0:22:37.400 --> 0:22:42.280 new ideas will simply move off shore and uh and 0:22:42.280 --> 0:22:46.080 and no country wants their best ideas to move off shore. 0:22:46.520 --> 0:22:49.160 So we'll see in the next few years some sort 0:22:49.200 --> 0:22:52.400 of regulatory guidance. You know, I do think that that's 0:22:52.440 --> 0:22:56.840 important given that most of the trading today is just 0:22:57.359 --> 0:23:01.280 purely speculative trading in the too complex. So when I 0:23:01.280 --> 0:23:05.480 say decentralized finance, that's a small part today of what's 0:23:05.520 --> 0:23:12.280 actually happening. And indeed, today's market action verifies that most 0:23:12.320 --> 0:23:15.040 of the trading going on in the crypto space is 0:23:15.119 --> 0:23:20.000 purely speculative in a risk risk off day. Um, you 0:23:20.080 --> 0:23:22.320 talk about the market going down two percent, to take 0:23:22.359 --> 0:23:25.199 a look at what's happening to bitcoin and ethereum bitcoin 0:23:25.240 --> 0:23:29.160 down seven point professor. You know, when I think about 0:23:29.200 --> 0:23:31.879 the centralized finance, and when I think that even you know, 0:23:31.960 --> 0:23:34.359 just just crypto, which we have some more experience with, 0:23:35.480 --> 0:23:38.639 I don't see it being led by JP Morgan or 0:23:38.840 --> 0:23:43.200 Bank of America who was going to innovate and develop 0:23:43.880 --> 0:23:48.560 this new area of finance. Yeah, it's really interesting because 0:23:48.680 --> 0:23:53.200 you ask the traditional banks like JP Morgan and Bank 0:23:53.240 --> 0:23:57.520