1 00:00:14,200 --> 00:00:17,280 Speaker 1: Happy Sunday, guys. How are you welcome in to another 2 00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 1: episode of the Daily Juice Podcast with me Matt Perrault 3 00:00:20,920 --> 00:00:23,959 Speaker 1: at Sports Talk. Matt, I'm your host for this little 4 00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:27,560 Speaker 1: daily experiment we do each and every single day audio 5 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:31,200 Speaker 1: wherever you get your audio podcasts, and our YouTube video 6 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:36,680 Speaker 1: for the video Betting Pros YouTube channel. So this podcast 7 00:00:36,720 --> 00:00:39,400 Speaker 1: being brought to you by our friends at olmosteakes dot com. 8 00:00:39,440 --> 00:00:42,159 Speaker 1: Father's Day Special Juice promo code thirty books off a 9 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:45,479 Speaker 1: qualifying offer. More on them here in just a second. 10 00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:50,200 Speaker 1: So it's been another good week. We are currently entering 11 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:54,280 Speaker 1: Sunday ten and five up four point five seven units. 12 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:58,560 Speaker 1: That is good. We are rolling here three consecutive winning weeks. 13 00:00:58,560 --> 00:01:00,320 Speaker 1: We love that, and so I don't want to blow 14 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:01,880 Speaker 1: it here today on a Sunday, But it is the 15 00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:05,920 Speaker 1: NBA Finals Game two, and so I'm gonna zig where 16 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:08,319 Speaker 1: I zagged in Game one. I'm gonna come back with 17 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:10,559 Speaker 1: something a little bit different in Game two, but similar bets. 18 00:01:10,840 --> 00:01:13,720 Speaker 1: Two full unit bets and two player props to give 19 00:01:13,760 --> 00:01:18,160 Speaker 1: you guys here no baseball, although you can just consistently 20 00:01:18,200 --> 00:01:21,319 Speaker 1: bet these two bets. Okay, I'm not gonna do it. 21 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:24,679 Speaker 1: Every day because well today is really scary, to be 22 00:01:24,720 --> 00:01:27,640 Speaker 1: quite honest, but the A's we are now ten and 23 00:01:27,800 --> 00:01:32,280 Speaker 1: five up four point three units by fading the A's 24 00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:35,840 Speaker 1: blindly on the run line every day. The Marlins whipped 25 00:01:35,840 --> 00:01:39,640 Speaker 1: them twelve to one yesterday Sandy alcntra is on the mound. 26 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:42,800 Speaker 1: Total is seven and a half. This, I mean Blackburn's 27 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 1: going for the A's. This should be an easy walk 28 00:01:45,400 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 1: in the park. And this was Sandy of last year. 29 00:01:47,440 --> 00:01:50,960 Speaker 1: Cy young Sandy, this is an easy run line. We're 30 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:53,960 Speaker 1: paying minus one p fifteen Juice un laying one and 31 00:01:54,000 --> 00:01:56,920 Speaker 1: a half runs on this. But I don't think it's 32 00:01:56,920 --> 00:01:59,240 Speaker 1: gonna hit. I'm just gonna be clear. Sandy is still 33 00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:03,840 Speaker 1: he's so gary, He's been so bad. Like it's he's 34 00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:06,000 Speaker 1: just the same dude. For whatever reason, it's not the 35 00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:08,600 Speaker 1: same dude. Now the A's can't score again. The A's 36 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 1: we hit that yesterday under team total three and a half. 37 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:13,600 Speaker 1: You find a three and a half out there. That's 38 00:02:13,639 --> 00:02:16,440 Speaker 1: not crazy for juice, bet mgm, lets you elater it. 39 00:02:16,919 --> 00:02:19,400 Speaker 1: I mean three and a half, two and a half 40 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:23,120 Speaker 1: yesterday was one and a half. All those hit so 41 00:02:23,160 --> 00:02:25,400 Speaker 1: I don't mind getting into this. This is where we 42 00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:28,200 Speaker 1: get into the conversation about like I'm giving you bet 43 00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:31,840 Speaker 1: recommendations that aren't on the official docket. I am betting 44 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:34,880 Speaker 1: them myself. This is an experiment. I'm betting it blindly. 45 00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:38,000 Speaker 1: I'm up over four units doing it, and we're gonna 46 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:40,280 Speaker 1: add in the team total. Just keep on betting under 47 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:42,400 Speaker 1: three and a half, under two and a half for 48 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:45,880 Speaker 1: the A's. But Sandy definitely makes me concerned. I'm not 49 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:47,919 Speaker 1: gonna not gonna lie. I don't know what to make 50 00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:50,040 Speaker 1: of him at all, because he's should he should be 51 00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:52,919 Speaker 1: able to shut down this lineup because the A's stink. 52 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:55,240 Speaker 1: So it's a good bet to make on the run line. 53 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:58,200 Speaker 1: But I don't know about team total and I'm not positive. 54 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:00,320 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna make it official. It could be a 55 00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:03,000 Speaker 1: seven to six type of game, like legitimately it should 56 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:05,799 Speaker 1: be two to one or two four three, nothing, But 57 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 1: I don't know. But if you want baseball today, team 58 00:03:10,040 --> 00:03:14,360 Speaker 1: total under for the Ace run line, Marlins, two bets. 59 00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:16,760 Speaker 1: Just keep on making them. It's been highly profitable. We've 60 00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:20,480 Speaker 1: been very good with this here so far through fifteen days, 61 00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:24,240 Speaker 1: fifteen times ten and five. You cannot beat that Okay, 62 00:03:24,320 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 1: ten and five is highly profitable, even laying juice highly 63 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:33,679 Speaker 1: highly profitable. 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The Heat had open shots Okay, 100 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:40,719 Speaker 1: I think Denver wins. I don't think Denver covers plus 101 00:05:40,760 --> 00:05:42,520 Speaker 1: eight and a half. I think this is a much 102 00:05:42,680 --> 00:05:45,160 Speaker 1: tighter basketball game. I think Miami is going to be 103 00:05:45,240 --> 00:05:48,200 Speaker 1: in this game. In fact, not only am I betting 104 00:05:48,240 --> 00:05:52,359 Speaker 1: plus eight and a half here first quarter. Now we 105 00:05:52,400 --> 00:05:55,760 Speaker 1: bet the Nuggets in first quarter Game one, I'm betting 106 00:05:55,760 --> 00:06:00,920 Speaker 1: the Heat plus three minus one point fifteen in game 107 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:05,479 Speaker 1: number two. Why. I think Jimmy Butler is far more 108 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:08,160 Speaker 1: assertive early in the game. I think Jimmy gim Butler 109 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:10,760 Speaker 1: will command the basketball. I think jim Butler will make 110 00:06:11,279 --> 00:06:16,159 Speaker 1: this defense for Denver work. I expect Strews to hit shots. 111 00:06:16,200 --> 00:06:18,560 Speaker 1: I don't know about Kayleb Martin. He's got a big problem. 112 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:20,400 Speaker 1: He's got a matchup problems all over the court, and 113 00:06:20,440 --> 00:06:23,479 Speaker 1: he's little compared to the wing players, the Michael Porter juniors, 114 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:26,800 Speaker 1: the Aaron Gordon's. I think Kayleb Martin could be an 115 00:06:26,800 --> 00:06:29,599 Speaker 1: afterthought in this series. But I don't think for Strus 116 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:32,440 Speaker 1: or Vincent's. I think those guys will get free, and 117 00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:35,320 Speaker 1: those guys will hit threes. I don't know what to 118 00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:37,680 Speaker 1: do with the pace. A part of me says, bet 119 00:06:37,760 --> 00:06:39,560 Speaker 1: the under in the first half. A part of me 120 00:06:39,600 --> 00:06:43,680 Speaker 1: says to bet the under for the game, but the 121 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:47,080 Speaker 1: number keeps climbing. Now is that a headfake or a 122 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:50,240 Speaker 1: real move? Everyone seems to be on the over. So 123 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:52,640 Speaker 1: I'm gonna hold back and say, all right, I don't know. 124 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:55,560 Speaker 1: I think the game goes under, but I picked the 125 00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:57,599 Speaker 1: game to go under because it was gonna be a blowout. 126 00:06:57,640 --> 00:07:00,040 Speaker 1: This game is gonna be tight. In my mind, I 127 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:02,920 Speaker 1: don't know how the game's gonna go. If the referees 128 00:07:02,960 --> 00:07:06,320 Speaker 1: call out of fouls, game could fly over. I'm concerned 129 00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:09,080 Speaker 1: about that. Okay. So I'm not gonna bet a total 130 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 1: in this game, either first half or for the game. Instead, 131 00:07:12,200 --> 00:07:14,640 Speaker 1: I'm gonna focus on the first quarter in for the game. 132 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 1: First quarter, in the fourth quarter is where I think 133 00:07:17,520 --> 00:07:20,040 Speaker 1: Miami will do their most damage. I think that in 134 00:07:20,040 --> 00:07:21,920 Speaker 1: the second and the third quarter is where you're gonna 135 00:07:21,960 --> 00:07:26,160 Speaker 1: see a lot of Denver's offensive firepower, flexus muscles. Okay, 136 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:31,680 Speaker 1: I'm gonna go Miami plus three minus one fifteen, Miami 137 00:07:31,720 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 1: plus eight and a half minus won ten. If this 138 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:39,200 Speaker 1: is wrong, If the Denver Nuggets kill the Miami Heat 139 00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:42,360 Speaker 1: in Game two, I'm dead. Okay, I'm just I'm dead. 140 00:07:43,120 --> 00:07:45,960 Speaker 1: But if Denver goes up two to zero, I'm very 141 00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:48,880 Speaker 1: confident they win the NBA Championship. I think Miami's life 142 00:07:48,960 --> 00:07:51,560 Speaker 1: is on the line Tonight's. If Miami wins, they have 143 00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:53,920 Speaker 1: a chance to win the series. If they lose, I 144 00:07:53,960 --> 00:07:57,840 Speaker 1: think they're dead. The reason is Denver, if they're gonna 145 00:07:57,840 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 1: lose a game, this is the game they're gonna lose. 146 00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 1: And if they don't, they've got Do you mean Miami 147 00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:08,200 Speaker 1: has to win four of the next five games, with 148 00:08:08,360 --> 00:08:12,640 Speaker 1: two of those games being in Denver. Don't think it's 149 00:08:12,640 --> 00:08:15,280 Speaker 1: gonna happen. Even if Miami wins all their home games, 150 00:08:15,520 --> 00:08:18,080 Speaker 1: Denver will go to forty four and seven straight up 151 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:23,360 Speaker 1: at home this year, naw I expect an inspired Heat team, 152 00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:26,760 Speaker 1: backed against the wall, throw everything at the Nuggets. I 153 00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:29,440 Speaker 1: do think Denver wins the game. As I said before, 154 00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:32,200 Speaker 1: I think Denver wins the series in five, four games 155 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:35,560 Speaker 1: to one. Game three probably goes to Miami. But I 156 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:38,240 Speaker 1: don't know this could be a sweep. It really really 157 00:08:38,320 --> 00:08:42,640 Speaker 1: is possible unless they Heat win tonight. They win tonight. Okay, 158 00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:45,320 Speaker 1: a little bit of a hedge, I guess you could 159 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:50,720 Speaker 1: say on this Heat plus three first quarter heat plus 160 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:53,400 Speaker 1: eight and a half for the game. Both those bets 161 00:08:53,760 --> 00:08:56,720 Speaker 1: one for one full units, one point one five and 162 00:08:56,800 --> 00:08:59,680 Speaker 1: one point one units down on that, so two point 163 00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 1: two four units in play here with the game now 164 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:06,840 Speaker 1: prop bets. I'm betting Aaron Gordon again. Okay, there's a 165 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:10,199 Speaker 1: massive mismatch, a massive problem. I don't think there's gonna 166 00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:12,760 Speaker 1: be an answer for Aaron Gordon. His point total is 167 00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:15,800 Speaker 1: thirteen and a half. It's stews towards the under. I'm 168 00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 1: going over again. Okay, it's gonna be tight. Okay, he 169 00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:22,400 Speaker 1: may end up with thirteen or fourteen points. Not gonna lie. 170 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:25,080 Speaker 1: This is gonna be sweaty. You can look around and 171 00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:27,319 Speaker 1: try to find a better price for this. You can 172 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:30,640 Speaker 1: find Aaron Gordon over thirteen and a half points at 173 00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:33,400 Speaker 1: minus one oh nine is where I found this price. 174 00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:37,360 Speaker 1: So it's, you know, bet to win a quarter unit. 175 00:09:37,559 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 1: It's a little bit less than that. Okay, so you 176 00:09:39,760 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 1: know you don't have to get into the point two eight. 177 00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:44,200 Speaker 1: It's zo point twenty seven to bet that. Okay, to 178 00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:46,400 Speaker 1: win the quarter unit. But I do think Aaron Gordon's 179 00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 1: gonna have open shots. I do think Aaron Gordon's gonna 180 00:09:49,000 --> 00:09:51,679 Speaker 1: have opportunities to score, and I think there's just a 181 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:57,400 Speaker 1: matchup nightmare with Vincent's or Caleb Martin. He's bigger, stronger, physical, 182 00:09:57,480 --> 00:09:59,880 Speaker 1: more physical, and faster than all of them. And at home, 183 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:02,439 Speaker 1: Aaron Gordon's really good. So I think Aaron Gordon to 184 00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:04,440 Speaker 1: go over thirteen and a half points. I'm gonna bet 185 00:10:04,440 --> 00:10:06,440 Speaker 1: it again. The books moved it up a point. It 186 00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:08,400 Speaker 1: was twelve and a half. He had twelve points in 187 00:10:08,440 --> 00:10:10,439 Speaker 1: the first quarter of Game one. I don't think that 188 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:12,800 Speaker 1: will happen again, but I do think as the game goes, 189 00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:15,240 Speaker 1: Gordon's gonna be a big part of it. Gordon scores 190 00:10:15,240 --> 00:10:17,600 Speaker 1: a lot and then I think Jokic's number of twenty 191 00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:20,760 Speaker 1: seven and a half, I mean he was really pedestrian 192 00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:23,480 Speaker 1: scored in the basketball in game one. I think he 193 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:25,480 Speaker 1: scores a lot more in this game. I think late 194 00:10:25,559 --> 00:10:27,520 Speaker 1: he scores a lot more in this game. I'm gonna 195 00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:29,880 Speaker 1: bet over twenty seven and a half. I think Jokic 196 00:10:29,920 --> 00:10:32,920 Speaker 1: could have a thirty point game here. Not sure he 197 00:10:32,960 --> 00:10:35,680 Speaker 1: gets a triple double. He was rebounding in passing in 198 00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:38,559 Speaker 1: game one. I think he looks for his shot way more. 199 00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:40,199 Speaker 1: In Game two, I think he looks gonna get to 200 00:10:40,240 --> 00:10:42,400 Speaker 1: the foul line way more in Game two. I think 201 00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:46,280 Speaker 1: Jokic scores in Game two, it's only minus one eighteen 202 00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:50,079 Speaker 1: to the over. Jokic over twenty seven and a half 203 00:10:50,160 --> 00:10:53,400 Speaker 1: points bet to win a quarter unit and minus won 204 00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:57,320 Speaker 1: eight team. Okay, So again, baseball fade the age on 205 00:10:57,360 --> 00:10:59,520 Speaker 1: the run line. If you want that Red Sox over 206 00:11:00,120 --> 00:11:03,040 Speaker 1: raise moneyline, probably a pretty good bet there as well. 207 00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:05,440 Speaker 1: I want to get into that, but those are this plays. 208 00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:08,840 Speaker 1: If you want baseball plays, are the official plays. Miami 209 00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:11,880 Speaker 1: plus three in the first quarter, Miami plus eight and 210 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:14,960 Speaker 1: a half for the game. Y'll Kitch over twenty seven 211 00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:17,720 Speaker 1: and a half points mine one eighteen for the game 212 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:21,080 Speaker 1: and Aaron Gordon over thirteen and a half points also 213 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:23,040 Speaker 1: for the game. Both those bets to bet them to 214 00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:26,480 Speaker 1: win a quarter units. Happy Sunday, It's been a very 215 00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:28,920 Speaker 1: good week. Let's end on a high note. When it's 216 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:30,960 Speaker 1: Matt Parl's follow me on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt. 217 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:33,640 Speaker 1: Each and every morning, it is the Dilijuce Podcast being 218 00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:48,600 Speaker 1: brought to you by omah stakes dot Com.