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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: Israel and Hamas have agreed to a cease fire deal

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Speaker 2: that would bring relief to Gaza after two years of fighting.

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Speaker 2: Under the terms of the agreement, Hamas will return all

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Speaker 2: of the hostages still in Gaza, and Israel will release

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Speaker 2: some Palestinian prisoners and partially withdraw its troops from Gaza City.

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Speaker 2: The deal was announced after days of negotiations between Israel

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Speaker 2: and Hamas in Egypt, and build on a twenty point

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Speaker 2: piece plan for the region released by US President Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump last month.

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Speaker 3: If Hamas rejects the deal, which is always possible, they're

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Speaker 3: the only one left. Everyone else has accepted it. But

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Speaker 3: I have a feeling that we're going to have a

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Speaker 3: positive answer. But if not, as you know, baby, you'd

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Speaker 3: have mar full backing.

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Speaker 2: To do what you The Israeli Cabinet was meeting to

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Speaker 2: approve the deal Thursday night, but negotiations about what comes

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Speaker 2: next are set to continue in the coming days, and

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Speaker 2: it's still unclear whether the ceasefire will lead to a

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Speaker 2: lasting peace. More than sixty seven thousand people in Gaza

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Speaker 2: have been killed, twenty thousand of whom are children. According

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Speaker 2: to the Hamas run health authority and a UN backed

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Speaker 2: body declared famine and Gaza in August. Of the two

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifty hostages Hamas took in its October seventh attack,

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Speaker 2: forty eight were still being held and twenty are believed

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Speaker 2: to be alive.

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Speaker 1: For the average person, it is a day of cautious

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Speaker 1: optimism about what the future may hold, relief that this

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Speaker 1: devastating to your war may be coming to an end.

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Speaker 1: But also I would say a day of solemness because

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Speaker 1: there has been so much destruction inflicted in the last

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Speaker 1: couple of years.

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Speaker 2: Jumana Bersecci is Bloomberg TV's Middle East correspondent.

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Speaker 1: So many people have died. You're talking about ninety percent

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Speaker 1: sense of the strip being uninhabitable at this point. So

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Speaker 1: there are still lots of questions about what happens in

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Speaker 1: the day after, and ultimately the bigger question for all

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Speaker 1: of this is about whether these two potentially future states

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Speaker 1: can actually coexist and lift side by side.

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Speaker 2: I'm Sarah Holder, and this is the big take from

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg News Today. On the show, I sit down with

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Speaker 2: Jumana Barsecchi along with Faris Algol, who grew up in Gaza.

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Speaker 2: And covers the territory from Canada today and Galite Alstein,

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Speaker 2: who covers Israel's government from Tel Aviv, to discuss how

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Speaker 2: this deal between Israel and Hamas was brokeer, what makes

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Speaker 2: it different from past agreements, and whether it could set

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Speaker 2: the stage for a permanent ceasefire. Jumana Barsecci Faras al

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Speaker 2: Galete Alstein, thank you for being here. We're talking on

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Speaker 2: Thursday afternoon in New York Thursday night in Israel and Gaza.

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Speaker 2: Jumana walk us through the high level terms of this agreement.

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Speaker 1: President Trump put up a post on truth social in

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Speaker 1: the middle of the night around two am Local saying

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Speaker 1: that both Israel and Hamas had agreed to Phase one

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Speaker 1: of the peace deal and on the back of that

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Speaker 1: that would secure the release of the hostages forty eight

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Speaker 1: of them in total, twenty of them thought to still

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Speaker 1: be alive in exchange for about two thousand Palestinian prisoners

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Speaker 1: and detainees now alongside that Israel, per Phase one of

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Speaker 1: the agreement, would agree to withdraw to a pre agreed

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Speaker 1: line known as the Yellow Line per the peace Plan,

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Speaker 1: that would still keep Israel in control of around fifty

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Speaker 1: three percent of the Gaza Strip. Alongside that, it would

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Speaker 1: also facilitate the passage of humanitarian aid much needed within

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Speaker 1: the Gaza Strip. Ahach step from a diplomatic standpoint, but

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Speaker 1: again still just phase one of this twenty point plan,

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Speaker 1: and at this point there was no reference about some

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Speaker 1: of the longer term questions that still are outstanding vis

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Speaker 1: a vis governance for Hamas, disarment, the extent of ideas withdrawal.

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Speaker 4: The first phase of the plan alliance with Trump's vision

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Speaker 4: by securing the release of the Israeli hostages who are alive.

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Speaker 4: Hamas and the BUST have refused to discuss this possibility

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Speaker 4: or option of releasing all the living Israeli hostages. But

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Speaker 4: this time it is different. This time, Trump's plans enjoy

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Speaker 4: backing and support from the world, including the Arab and

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Speaker 4: Muslim may countries, particularly including the katar and Turkey. Those

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Speaker 4: are the two countries that have a good relationship with

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Speaker 4: Hamas and where Hamas' leaders usually stay. This was one

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Speaker 4: of the reasons why Hamas came to agree on this,

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Speaker 4: and let's not forget the timing and the situation in

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Speaker 4: which the plan was presented. It comes as Israel went

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Speaker 4: ahead and it's a plan to take over the Gaza City,

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Speaker 4: which is the main stronghold of Hamas. After two years

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Speaker 4: of war, Hamas has been losing on a daily basis

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Speaker 4: in terms of man bower and weapons, so it was

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Speaker 4: being weakened. Also, let's not forget that Hamas in the

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Speaker 4: south of Gaza Strip, where most of the displaced people

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Speaker 4: are staying there, Hamas had faced increasing challenge from militia's

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Speaker 4: and the armed groups that are backed by Israel, as

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Speaker 4: well as plans. For the past two weeks, Hamas had

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Speaker 4: been fighting with some clans in the south of Gaza

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Speaker 4: Strip and this adds more brussure into Hamas.

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Speaker 2: And you know, there have been other ceasefires brokened and

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Speaker 2: broken over the course of this war. Are there signs

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Speaker 2: that this agreement and this ceasefire is different.

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Speaker 5: Yes, I would say that there are. First and foremost

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Speaker 5: in this case, Israel is getting all the hostages back,

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Speaker 5: both the living and dead hostages, and that's a very

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Speaker 5: big deal and that wasn't made possible until this deal

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Speaker 5: came through. I think that also there's never been an

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Speaker 5: agreement to a comprehensive deal that we still need to

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Speaker 5: see if can be realized fully. And at the same time,

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Speaker 5: there's always been talk of partial deals, temporary ceasefires, and

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Speaker 5: this time what's different is the fact that all the

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Speaker 5: hostages are coming back right away, and the fact that

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Speaker 5: there is a sort of horizon, even if it's not

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Speaker 5: one hundred percent clear on what the next steps are

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Speaker 5: supposed to be Ghalid.

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Speaker 2: At this point in the war on Gaza, Israel has

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Speaker 2: become increasingly isolated on the global stage. Its economy has

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Speaker 2: been damaged. What kinds of pressures has Israel been under

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Speaker 2: to end this war and what does this agreement say

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Speaker 2: about Israel's position?

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Speaker 5: So this is Israel's longest and most expensive war in

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Speaker 5: its history. The costs have many faces. I mean, one

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Speaker 5: very major factor in the costs of this war has

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Speaker 5: been the extensive use of reserve forces. So this has

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Speaker 5: been a very big burden on government finances. And to

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Speaker 5: afford this usage of reserve forces and also other military expenditure,

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Speaker 5: Israel has had to raise a lot of depth over

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Speaker 5: the last two years. Last year we saw a record

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Speaker 5: breaking borrowering spree that the Israeli government went on. Now,

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Speaker 5: while Israel still has pretty good access to international markets

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Speaker 5: and has very deep pocketed local market, the costs are

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Speaker 5: pretty high. As this adds up not just now but

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Speaker 5: obviously also moving forward. Another thing that's been impacted, and

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Speaker 5: this is obviously connected, is Israel's growth rate. So Israel

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Speaker 5: has been slumping in its growth rate for the last

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Speaker 5: two years and this year doesn't look very promising either

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Speaker 5: at this stage. So there we're seeing a sort of

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Speaker 5: contraction of the economy. We're seeing a drop in GDP

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Speaker 5: per capita. I will also say that in terms of

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Speaker 5: the Israeli population in comparison to what they were used

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Speaker 5: to before the war, it's been a big change. There

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Speaker 5: were many new taxes that were imposed, there were many

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Speaker 5: cutbacks on social services, on civilian expenditure by the government.

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Speaker 5: So everyone is feeling a difference in their standard of

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Speaker 5: living now versus what they were used to before the war.

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Speaker 2: How much is this an economic question versus one of

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Speaker 2: international pressure to stop this war?

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Speaker 5: So I think the international pressure and the economic pressure

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Speaker 5: are in a way connected. The Europeans were threatening to

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Speaker 5: sanction Israel economically, and that was a pretty serious threat

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Speaker 5: if it were to be carried out. And I can

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Speaker 5: also tell you that in terms of local businesses who

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Speaker 5: rely on exports, to Europe and elsewhere. There was very

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Speaker 5: much a growing concern that even if countries or governments

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Speaker 5: haven't yet sanctioned Israel in Europe, for example, then private

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Speaker 5: companies were reluctant or starting to be reluctant to do

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Speaker 5: business with Israel. So to that end, I would say

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Speaker 5: that it was more about you know, international pressure and

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Speaker 5: Trump putting all his weight behind this proposal, but it

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Speaker 5: wasn't disconnected from economic pressures, mainly from Europe.

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Speaker 1: We talk about, you know, war fatigue, about the economic pressures,

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Speaker 1: about the pressures coming through from the international community, with

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Speaker 1: so many nations around the world just a couple of

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Speaker 1: weeks ago pushing for Palestinian statehood. But I would also

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Speaker 1: add one more thing, which is the last time this

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Speaker 1: year fire elapsed. In March of this year, the situation

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Speaker 1: politically in the region for Israel was different, and since then,

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Speaker 1: what you have seen is a war with Iran that

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Speaker 1: has diminished the capabilities of the Iranian regime. Probably not

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Speaker 1: administered the fatal knockout that President Trump has said it has,

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Speaker 1: but ultimately what you have seen is a severe diminishment

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Speaker 1: of what their military capabilities can offer. You've also seen

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Speaker 1: a similar kind of dismantling of Hezbalah as an entity

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Speaker 1: in Lebanon and the installation of a Lebanese government that's

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Speaker 1: more pro West and more pro Us. And of course

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Speaker 1: you've seen the deterioration of Hamas and their own capabilities,

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Speaker 1: in addition to a lot of pressure from the US

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Speaker 1: administration to control the Huthis. And so if you think

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Speaker 1: about it from a regional perspective, Israel has managed to

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Speaker 1: inflict heavy blows on some of their regional adversaries as well.

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Speaker 2: Coming up as negotiations continue, what it would take to

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Speaker 2: broker lasting peace. Thursday's ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas

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Speaker 2: follows two years of war in Gaza. Past attempts to

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Speaker 2: broker peace and pause fighting have failed to hold long term,

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Speaker 2: but international pressure, combined with the mounting humanitarian and economic

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Speaker 2: toll of the war, have brought Israel and Hamas to

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Speaker 2: a point where they could agree to the first steps

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Speaker 2: of a more comprehensive agreement. I asked Jumana Bersecchi, who

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Speaker 2: covers the Middle East for Bloomberg, about the key turning

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Speaker 2: points that led to these negotiations.

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Speaker 1: I think what's become apparent from this process, and this

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Speaker 1: isn't a surprise to anyone, but President Trump is transactional

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Speaker 1: by nature, and earlier on on Bloomberg Television, one of

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Speaker 1: our colleagues was speaking to the Deputy Foreign Minister and

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Speaker 1: was asked about President Trump's role in the process and

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Speaker 1: was given a lot of credit for it, and she

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Speaker 1: actually said, he is focused on the end game. He's

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Speaker 1: less focused on the means of getting there.

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Speaker 4: Ie.

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Speaker 1: He is transactional. He wanted to get to this end result.

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Speaker 1: I think what became apparent from all of this is

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Speaker 1: also the state of the relationship that President Trump enjoys

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Speaker 1: with some of his Arab Gulf allies as well. If

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Speaker 1: you look back at the last couple of weeks, things

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Speaker 1: really started to increase the momentum. There was a lot

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Speaker 1: of a drive and focus out of the US administration

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Speaker 1: after the Doha attack that took place. This was an

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Speaker 1: attack that Israel ministers they were targeting Hamas officials on Dhab,

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Speaker 1: but also unprecedented in nature and at the time, Katar

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Speaker 1: was irate about the infringement of its sovereignty and reportedly

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Speaker 1: at the time as well, President Trump was also very

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Speaker 1: angry that Israel had gone this far and taken this step.

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Speaker 1: The perception from the administration was that perhaps in this

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Speaker 1: case Israel had overreached, and so what you've seen since

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Speaker 1: then is a massive diplomatic effort out of Katar and

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Speaker 1: other Arab states in the region to get in Trump's ear.

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Speaker 1: I think one big difference this time around is you

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Speaker 1: do have a lot of buy in from these key

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Speaker 1: Arab states, from the key manators, from the likes of Kutar.

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Speaker 1: They've thrown their weight under support behind this plan and

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Speaker 1: they helped put the plan together the week of the

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Speaker 1: YUN General Assembly.

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Speaker 2: Well, one key point in Trump's plan is that Hama's

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Speaker 2: hands over control and administration of the Gaza strip to

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Speaker 2: another entity. First, do you get the sense that they

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Speaker 2: are willing to do that.

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Speaker 4: Hamas said they are looking for intra Palestinian talks or

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Speaker 4: dialogue to be held in Cairo to discuss the future

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Speaker 4: of Gaza in Doubas and currently Hamas has always said

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Speaker 4: that they are ready to relinquish Bower, but one of

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Speaker 4: their analysts said that while Hamas will not be directly

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Speaker 4: in the government, it cannot leave the entire Parsonian scene

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Speaker 4: or arena, and the sticking point is the issue of

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Speaker 4: Hamas weapons, the disarming and the departure of it of

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Speaker 4: some of its leaders or officials or members from the

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Speaker 4: Gaza strip. But I think talking about this issue will

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Speaker 4: be less intent or easier when there is no fighting.

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Speaker 4: For the Parisonian people and for Hamas, the most important

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Speaker 4: thing is that the daily bloodshed or n fighting and

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Speaker 4: attacks stop. I talked to people after the ceasfire. Many

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Speaker 4: of them say, regardless the terms and conditions, the most

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Speaker 4: important thing we want to see is that the war stops,

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Speaker 4: the attacks stops, the aid gets in, and we can

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Speaker 4: return to what is lift of our houses. Many Parisians

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Speaker 4: have been upset and angry at Hamas, and this sentiment

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Speaker 4: has increased during the war. I spoke to some of

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Speaker 4: them who were agreeing that Hamasia needs to debart and

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Speaker 4: needs to step down, having been controlling Gaza for more

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Speaker 4: than eighteen years since two thousand and seven. Hamas itself

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Speaker 4: say is we are giving up control, giving up ruling.

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Speaker 4: But the question is to what extent Hamas is ready

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Speaker 4: to give up. Are they just gonna stay out of

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Speaker 4: whatever body that will run the day to day affairs

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Speaker 4: in Gaza and control from behind the scene. Or will

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Speaker 4: they act as a shadow government. So I think all

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Speaker 4: of these issues need to be tackled in the upcoming

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Speaker 4: grounds of talks, and those talks will not be easy.

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Speaker 4: The chances of their success is less than the chances

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Speaker 4: of their failure and glee.

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Speaker 2: I want to go back to something you said earlier

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Speaker 2: that this agreement is different because it's comprehensive. It's not partial,

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Speaker 2: it's not temporary. It is a comprehensive ceasefire agreement. What

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Speaker 2: signs are you seeing from the Israeli government about whether

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Speaker 2: the ceasefire will hold?

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Speaker 5: I think that the general thinking and the general senses that,

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Speaker 5: given how invested both US President Trump is in this

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Speaker 5: plan as well as regional players, I think that that

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Speaker 5: first and foremost gives a sense that this time as

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Speaker 5: well will not be at liberty, so to speak, to

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Speaker 5: decide solely on its own, that, for example, it wants

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Speaker 5: to go back to fighting, it will kind of need

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Speaker 5: to be more coordinated with the US. And while in

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Speaker 5: the past the US has backed Israel asking to finish

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Speaker 5: the job in Gaza, to defeat Ramas as they called it,

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Speaker 5: that could turn out to be more complicated this time around.

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Speaker 5: At the same time, I would say that things are

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Speaker 5: a bit vague on what happens next. And you know,

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Speaker 5: Israeli officials have said both on and of the record

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Speaker 5: that if Hamas refuses to disarm, Israel could see itself

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Speaker 5: going back to fighting. So one I think of the

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Speaker 5: main things to look out for moving forward in the

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Speaker 5: negotiations is this issue of Hamas disarming, and there will

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Speaker 5: be a discussion because that's not very clear in Trump's

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Speaker 5: plan and maybe it shouldn't be because it was more

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Speaker 5: of a general outline, But what weapons exactly constitute that disarmed?

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Speaker 2: And Gullie, you mentioned that the timeline of negotiations and

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Speaker 2: the details are still being worked out, but Domanta, what

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Speaker 2: do we know about what sorts of negotiations will be

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Speaker 2: unfolding in the coming days and over the weekend.

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Speaker 1: Well, in the short term, the immediate focus is on

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Speaker 1: implementing the ceasefire. Once the ceasefire has been agreed to,

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Speaker 1: then per the terms of Phase one, Israel withdrawal to

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Speaker 1: this pre agreed line that would leave it still controlling

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Speaker 1: just over fifty percent of Gaza Strip. Once that happens,

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Speaker 1: then Hamas would be given seventy two hours to return

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Speaker 1: the living hostages that deceased hostages, the timeline is slightly longer,

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Speaker 1: and so you would think also there will begin a

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Speaker 1: series of operations to retrieve the bodies of those diseased.

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Speaker 1: So that is what's going to happen in the short term.

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Speaker 1: Right after that, there are going to be lots of

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Speaker 1: discussions about the flow of humanitarian aid. It's also been

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Speaker 1: a very thorny topic. Who will be administering it, where

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Speaker 1: exactly the aid is going to be coming from, how

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Speaker 1: many lawries will be put in or allowed into the

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Speaker 1: Gaza strip on a day to day basis. So these

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Speaker 1: are technical details, but extremely important details as well, because

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Speaker 1: the population of Gaza has been suffering from a famine

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Speaker 1: and severe malnutrition for several months now.

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Speaker 2: Well for us, we've talked before about this long path

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Speaker 2: to rebuilding that Gaza has ahead of it if the

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Speaker 2: ceasefire holds. You know, international experts have said parts of

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Speaker 2: Gaza are experiencing famine, children are going hungry. The UN

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Speaker 2: estimates that nearly two million residents of Gaza have been displaced.

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Speaker 2: What does the ceasefire mean in the short term for

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Speaker 2: the people of Gaza and what are the first priorities

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Speaker 2: for aid once the fighting stops.

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Speaker 4: The issue of reconstruction of Gaza is still far because

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Speaker 4: it is complicated. I think if Hamas is to stay

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Speaker 4: in Bower, the reconstruction will be out of reach. In

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Speaker 4: the short term. The Parascenians in Gaza need the air

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Speaker 4: and the remedial and the intervention programs to mitigate the

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Speaker 4: crisis resulted from the destruction of clinics, primary care centers, schools,

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Speaker 4: the infrastructure, the sewagy networks, the water pipelines and all

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Speaker 4: these issues to ensure there will be no spread of disease,

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Speaker 4: for example, because of the situation.

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Speaker 1: And then of course, finally you have the question of

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Speaker 1: who is going to be governing Gaza. Fatis was just

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Speaker 1: talking about the fact that Hamas wants to be involved

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Speaker 1: in discussions around the future, even though they have said

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Speaker 1: that they are willing to give up or relinquish their

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Speaker 1: actual role in government. But at this point there is

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Speaker 1: no viable alternative. And in the peace plan they've talked

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Speaker 1: about setting up this committee of a political Palestinians. What

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Speaker 1: does that look like in practice? So still a lot

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Speaker 1: of negotiations have to take place over the next coming

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Speaker 1: weeks and months.

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Speaker 2: This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder.

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