Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,
Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of
Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.
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Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that,
Speaker 2: let's get to the show. Today is the Iowa Caucuses.
Speaker 2: People will begin voting later on tonight in their bizarre
Speaker 2: byzantine some would say system.
Speaker 3: But before we get to that, we should actually go over.
Speaker 2: As Crystal mentioned, the final Des Moines Register polls considered
Speaker 2: one of the gold standard polls in the state. Let's
Speaker 2: go and put it up there on the screen so
Speaker 2: everyone can see. We've got Donald Trump forty eight percent,
Speaker 2: Nikki Haley at twenty percent, Governor Ron desandis at sixteen percent,
Speaker 2: Vivik Ramaswami and eight percent, Asa Hutchinson a waffing and
Speaker 2: there and Ryan Bigley. I actually don't know who Ryan is,
Speaker 2: but uh okay.
Speaker 3: Ryan whatever, there's always one.
Speaker 2: There's a guy who always comes, you know, somehow He's
Speaker 2: what we find here is that Trump overwhelmingly winning with
Speaker 2: twenty eight percent margin. The big question, and we will
Speaker 2: reveal what we think actually about this is the Trump
Speaker 2: support soft?
Speaker 3: Is it overstated?
Speaker 2: And we were comparing a little bit to results from
Speaker 2: twenty and sixteen.
Speaker 3: I have it in front of me here.
Speaker 2: In twenty and sixteen, the Iowa Des Moines Register poll
Speaker 2: actually had Trump at twenty eight percent and Ted Cruz
Speaker 2: at twenty three percent. The final results actually had Ted
Speaker 2: Cruz winning the Iowa caucuses with twenty seven point six
Speaker 2: percent and Trump at twenty four point three. As you
Speaker 2: can see right there from the twenty sixteen results Marco
Speaker 2: Rubio coming in at twenty three percent. So the question, Crystal,
Speaker 2: is uh, is that going to happen again this time?
Speaker 3: Is Trump's support going to be understated?
Speaker 2: I personally think though, because the dynamics are so different
Speaker 2: this time around. Ted Cruise, if people remember, had a
Speaker 2: tremendous operation in Iowa. It also was at a time
Speaker 2: of much more uncertainty. That was the very first vote
Speaker 2: ever cast in official proceeding for Donald Trump. The juggernaut
Speaker 2: that he was politically did not yet quite exist, and
Speaker 2: there was a different evangelical turnout. He hadn't been president yet,
Speaker 2: his favorability numbers were not necessarily where.
Speaker 3: They are right now.
Speaker 2: And then the problem also in my opinion, Crystal, is
Speaker 2: that Ted Cruz was a far more formidable candidate than
Speaker 2: both Nicki Haley and Ron DeSantis kind of in their
Speaker 2: own way. Desanta's has tried to mimic the twenty sixteen playbook,
Speaker 2: But Nicki Haley is not running, you know, for the
Speaker 2: same conservative voters. She's actually winning a decent amount of
Speaker 2: Democratic voters. Fine, if you're running in a general election,
Speaker 2: but not when you're running an overall Republican prime.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and let me explain that piece a little bit
Speaker 1: so people can understand. So traditionally, Democrats and Republicans both
Speaker 1: have Iowa as their first voting contests, their first caucus
Speaker 1: on the map of like famous political.
Speaker 4: History, et cetera.
Speaker 1: Because Joe Biden the DNC wanted to make sure to
Speaker 1: break the primary on his behalf and also because Iowa,
Speaker 1: let's be honest, last time around for the Democrats, utter
Speaker 1: and complete debucle So New Hampshire sort of put up
Speaker 1: a fight about getting bumped back in the lineup. They're
Speaker 1: still going ahead. They're being penalized by the DNC. We'll
Speaker 1: talk about that, you know, more as we get to
Speaker 1: New Hampshire. But Iowa, I think because they had such
Speaker 1: an embarrassing situation unfold last time, just kind of hung
Speaker 1: their heads in shame, we're like, all right, fine, we'll
Speaker 1: go to the back of the line. So there is
Speaker 1: no Democratic voting tonight. What that means is that theoretically
Speaker 1: Democrats who want to vote in the Republican caucus and
Speaker 1: try to sew a little bit of chaos or try
Speaker 1: to register their disapproval of Donald Trump, they can actually
Speaker 1: register as a Republican at the caucas site itself and
Speaker 1: go ahead and vote in Republican primary. Polls show, and
Speaker 1: I think we have the numbers we could put up
Speaker 1: in a minute, poll show a significant number of Democrats
Speaker 1: are actually planning to back Nikki Haley and say that
Speaker 1: if she doesn't win, they're going to vote for Joe
Speaker 1: Biden in the general election.
Speaker 4: Now, I am a little.
Speaker 1: Bit skeptical because I always see these narratives come up
Speaker 1: when it's election time of like, oh, the Republicans are
Speaker 1: going to cross over and they're going to cause chaos
Speaker 1: and the democratic vote or the Democrats are going to
Speaker 1: cross over and they're going to cause chaos, et cetera,
Speaker 1: et cetera. I've never seen it happen in such large
Speaker 1: numbers that it really makes a significant difference.
Speaker 4: That's right now.
Speaker 1: Independence are another story, and this is why Nikki Haley's
Speaker 1: doing well in New Hampshire because you have a large
Speaker 1: group of independents who historically do vote in the New
Speaker 1: Hampshire primary. And so those independence if they're looking to,
Speaker 1: you know, be able to participate in democracy, their only
Speaker 1: opportunity to do so is in the Republican caucus. So
Speaker 1: I could see a significant number of independence showing up
Speaker 1: to caucus with the Republicans tonight. So that's kind of
Speaker 1: the story of Nikki Haley's support, especially with Chris Christy
Speaker 1: dropping out. She is really consolidating that quote unquote hard
Speaker 1: like anti Trump vote, and based on the numbers the majority,
Speaker 1: this won't surprise you. I mean, it's a very like
Speaker 1: wind track, beer track kind of situation. Her support is
Speaker 1: overwhelmingly white, college educated, urban and so as you're looking
Speaker 1: at the map tonight and as things are unfolding, those
Speaker 1: are the places where if she's going to have a
Speaker 1: big night. They should be coming in really strong for her,
Speaker 1: and if she's not doing well there, then she's not
Speaker 1: really going to do well anywhere.
Speaker 3: That's another good reason.
Speaker 2: Whenever you're watching the returns, you know, usually these urban
Speaker 2: centers are the ones who can report more quickly, and
Speaker 2: they're also the easiest ones for reporters and all that
Speaker 2: to get to. So in some cases you can actually
Speaker 2: see overstated support for the urban backed candidates, the suburban people,
Speaker 2: people who would like to support Nicki Haley.
Speaker 3: For example, let's put this up there on the screen.
Speaker 2: As Crystal alluded to from NBC News, they asked the question,
Speaker 2: if Donald Trump is the Republican nominee in the general election,
Speaker 2: would you vote for him, vote for Joe Biden, vote
Speaker 2: for RFK Junior, or vote for somebody else. Forty three
Speaker 2: percent of Nikki Haley supporters say that they would vote
Speaker 2: for Joe Biden, far more I mean near more than
Speaker 2: almost double of the twenty three percent who say that
Speaker 2: they would vote for Trump, eight percent say that they
Speaker 2: would vote for Bobby Kennedy, and then nineteen percent say
Speaker 2: they would either vote for another third party or they
Speaker 2: are not sure.
Speaker 3: So it's pretty substantial.
Speaker 2: The vast I guess the plurality of those Nicki Haley
Speaker 2: voters who will vote tonight in the Des Moines or
Speaker 2: at least who are slated to vote tonight in the
Speaker 2: Iowa caucuses according to the Des Moines registered poll are Democrats,
Speaker 2: and so that pretty significant crossover.
Speaker 4: You don't want to see those numbers.
Speaker 2: You don't want to see those numbers in a freaking
Speaker 2: Republican primary. Again, you know, that's something that you may
Speaker 2: want to see in a general election, but you had
Speaker 2: to get to the election first, and I think that's
Speaker 2: the major problem that they have right now. So as
Speaker 2: we mentioned too, in terms of the overall polling average,
Speaker 2: this can sometimes be even more significant. Let's go and
Speaker 2: put this up there please on the screen. So this
Speaker 2: is what we have for the RCP average, the average
Speaker 2: of all of the polls going into this over the
Speaker 2: last five to ten days. Fifty two percent for Donald Trump,
Speaker 2: eighteen percent for Nicki Haley, fifteen point five percent for
Speaker 2: Ron DeSantis, six point five for Vivek Ramaswami, and three
Speaker 2: point five for Chris Christie. Chris Christy obviously no longer
Speaker 2: in the RASO. You can kind of distribute that probably
Speaker 2: the majority of that to NICKI Haley, which does line
Speaker 2: up crystal with the numbers that we saw in the
Speaker 2: final Des Moines Register poll. But then the big question
Speaker 2: hanging over all of this is the same one blanketing
Speaker 2: Washington today.
Speaker 3: What about the damn weather? The weather in Iowa is
Speaker 3: completely insane.
Speaker 2: We have a local news clip here just to lay
Speaker 2: out how this is the coldest caucus literally on record,
Speaker 2: with minus thirty or so temperatures expected with wind chill.
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen.
Speaker 5: The high temperature Monday will be just below zero, far
Speaker 5: colder than the coldest caucus on record that was sixteen
Speaker 5: degrees in two thousand and four. Now the wind chill
Speaker 5: Monday will be, as we mentioned, twenty to thirty degrees
Speaker 5: blow zero, again, much colder than minus twenty one degrees
Speaker 5: that was back way back in nineteen seventy two. So
Speaker 5: what does it mean? CASEYCIA political analyst Dennis Goldford says
Speaker 5: the weather likely will affect the Iowa caucus results. Fewer
Speaker 5: people may turn out to vote for their favorite candidate,
Speaker 5: and all those pole results and the outcomes certainly could change.
Speaker 6: Concern for the various candidates Aside from not being able
Speaker 6: to get to schedule venues, is that their supporters just
Speaker 6: may not be able to get to their caucus sites,
Speaker 6: or they may decide it's a done deal or it's
Speaker 6: just not worth it to them.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it would have to be worth a lot for me,
Speaker 2: Crystal to be able to go out there. So currently,
Speaker 2: as you and I are speaking, it is minus eleven
Speaker 2: degrees fahrenheit and des Moines, Iowa.
Speaker 7: Is that the field at the temperature the according to
Speaker 7: the National Weather Service, that feels like is wind chills
Speaker 7: below as low as thirty five below zero.
Speaker 2: So the lowest I've ever personal experience is minus twenty
Speaker 2: and that's when you're not actually freezes to your face.
Speaker 1: So yeah, just to make it real for me in Minneapolis, Yeah, exactly,
Speaker 1: go outside. It like punches you in the face that
Speaker 1: level of gold. There's a couple of ways to look
Speaker 1: at this in terms of like, first of all, does
Speaker 1: make a difference at all?
Speaker 4: Right?
Speaker 1: Does it just decrease voter turnout overall? But in similar
Speaker 1: percentages across the boar is very possible. One way to
Speaker 1: spin it, if you're a nicky Haley or Ronda Santis
Speaker 1: person is like, oh well, Trump support is strongest in
Speaker 1: the more rural areas, where it's more difficult, the roads
Speaker 1: will be less treated, you've got to travel further in
Speaker 1: order to get to the caucus site, So perhaps it
Speaker 1: has more of an impact on his support versus the
Speaker 1: Nicky Haley support, which is in the more suburban urban areas.
Speaker 1: And I think Ron de Santis is kind of like
Speaker 1: evenly distributed across the state.
Speaker 4: So that's one theory of the case.
Speaker 1: The other theory of the case is that if you
Speaker 1: dig into the numbers in that Des Moines Register poll,
Speaker 1: Nicky Haley supporters like the support among her supporters is
Speaker 1: extraordinarily weak. Yes, nine percent of people who say they're
Speaker 1: gonna caucus for Nicky Haley say they're extremely enthusiastic, about
Speaker 1: nine percent. The equivalent number for Donald Trump is forty
Speaker 1: nine percent. For Ron DeSantis, it's twenty three percent of
Speaker 1: his supporters say they are extremely enthusiastic. So you would
Speaker 1: think that when it requires so much to be able
Speaker 1: to go out in freaking minus thirty degree weather, in
Speaker 1: the driving snow and with the iced over roads and
Speaker 1: whatever to go caucus, that you better be extremely enthusiastic
Speaker 1: to go out and do that, that would, you know,
Speaker 1: augur more in the direction of Donald Trump.
Speaker 4: So take that for what it's worth.
Speaker 1: But again, I do think even though the top line
Speaker 1: number for Nicki in this De Moines Register poll was
Speaker 1: pretty good, especially the fact she jumps ahead of Ron
Speaker 1: DeSantis and she really has staked her claim on New Hampshire.
Speaker 1: That's really where she wants to put in a great showing.
Speaker 1: So if she's able to pull off a strong second
Speaker 1: in Iowa, that would be a very good finish for her.
Speaker 1: But if you dig into these numbers and Seltzer, who
Speaker 1: does this, pulse that it was jaw dropping the lack
Speaker 1: of enthusiasm for Nikki Haley evidence by those polls. And
Speaker 1: then you add to what we were saying before that
Speaker 1: much of her support is like Democrats and independence, are
Speaker 1: they really going to brave the conditions to go out
Speaker 1: and vote in a Republican caucus.
Speaker 4: I think that's a gigantic question.
Speaker 3: Mark Yeah, she says.
Speaker 2: Quote her enthusiasm numbers again, I think are on the
Speaker 2: edge of job dropping. Sixty one percent are just mildly
Speaker 2: enthusiastic or not enthusiastic. It just seems at odds with
Speaker 2: a candidate moving up, she actually says according to her
Speaker 2: own poll, her own poll vastly over states Nikki Haley's support.
Speaker 2: And don't forget Chris. We have to explain like the
Speaker 2: bizarre caucus system, the way that it actually works, where
Speaker 2: there's a first round, but then there's also second round
Speaker 2: before we get to the eventual vote total. So let's
Speaker 2: say that she does have soft support number one, that's
Speaker 2: going to be very difficult in terms of getting people
Speaker 2: out to the actual polls. And then in the various
Speaker 2: wizard precincts where she doesn't rise to the percentage that
Speaker 2: she would need to in the first vote, then her
Speaker 2: voters would then be able to scatter. But then the
Speaker 2: question is if they don't support anybody other candidate than her,
Speaker 2: are they going to leave the caucus? And this is
Speaker 2: where the actual voting system gets just completely awry.
Speaker 3: We saw this actually previously.
Speaker 2: Part of why it was so difficult and the whole
Speaker 2: software meltdown or whatever for the DNC. This was part
Speaker 2: of what broke the actual software is that they weren't
Speaker 2: able to account for the second count voting in this system.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it was just total complete meltdown of the tech
Speaker 1: that they were relying on previously, they'd used sort of
Speaker 1: more just like by hand or atiquated methods that turned
Speaker 1: out to be a lot more reliable than they paid
Speaker 1: some you know, Rising Democratic consultants star to build this
Speaker 1: crap who happened to.
Speaker 4: Be affiliated with Pete boodhagine. But we'll just leave all
Speaker 4: of that in the past.
Speaker 1: I will never forget though, when we were covering that, Yeah,
Speaker 1: at Rising, we were doing like a live stream.
Speaker 4: We're waiting for the results.
Speaker 1: Anytime the results are, the results are sure to start
Speaker 1: coming in.
Speaker 3: It kept coming in the year. They're like, it's coming now.
Speaker 2: We're like okay, okay, And I remember being on Twitter
Speaker 2: and be like I don't think so. And then what
Speaker 2: we stretched it as long as we possibly could. And
Speaker 2: then at a certain point, I think it must have
Speaker 2: been like ten thirty or so, and we were like, okay,
Speaker 2: I guess we're just going to go home.
Speaker 3: I don't really know what's happening.
Speaker 1: And the Pete came out and just like declared victory
Speaker 1: based on nothing, and the video is like, okay, you won,
Speaker 1: let's move on to new handser. It was crazy anyway,
Speaker 1: That's why Democrats, you know that in the fact that
Speaker 1: I think I also want to make sure to mention
Speaker 1: Joe Biden and the DNC have just decided, like we're
Speaker 1: not doing democracy, We're going to kill democracy to try
Speaker 1: to save democracy. A bunch of states have just completely
Speaker 1: canceled their primaries, even though Joe Biden has challengers, he
Speaker 1: has Jan Huger and now there's questions constitutional about him,
Speaker 1: but Lee can let the courts resolve whether he is
Speaker 1: actually a legit presidential candidate or not. You've got Mary
Speaker 1: and Williamson who's been running for quite a long time,
Speaker 1: and you have a Congressman Dean Phillips who is running
Speaker 1: against him as well. And rather than having the confidence
Speaker 1: to say, Okay, we believe in our guy, we think
Speaker 1: and the polls demonstrate that he's overwhelmingly the favorite, let's
Speaker 1: have a contest and you know, let people go out
Speaker 1: and register their choice. A number of these states have
Speaker 1: just completely canceled their primaries. And in Iowa, as I said,
Speaker 1: they were part of the shift in the lineup to
Speaker 1: try to make sure to bolster Joe Biden because he
Speaker 1: did poorly in Iowa last time. He did poorly in
Speaker 1: New Hampshire, very poorly, in New Hampshire last time, so
Speaker 1: they demoted them because they did not align with the
Speaker 1: DNC's chosen candidate of Joe Biden, and Iowa's decided just
Speaker 1: to go along with that. New Hampshire's putting up more
Speaker 1: of a fight. Joe Biden will be only a write
Speaker 1: in candidate in the state of New Hampshire. But you know,
Speaker 1: that's why you have the Republicans going and not the
Speaker 1: Democrats in terms of Iowa. So when I look at
Speaker 1: all of this the weather, Niki Haley seems to be
Speaker 1: surging at the right time, But then again, i was
Speaker 1: not a great state for her, and you dig into
Speaker 1: these polls and you're like, her people don't really care
Speaker 1: about whether she wins or not, and they're like mostly
Speaker 1: Democrats and Independents and whatever. I feel like In terms
Speaker 1: of my prediction, I think Trump is going to more
Speaker 1: or less hit the percentage point that he is getting
Speaker 1: in this des moin registered pole right around fifty. Maybe
Speaker 1: I'm going to say a little bit under fifty. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna see he doesn't quite hit the fifty percentage point.
Speaker 1: I think Ron is actually gonna be able to come
Speaker 1: from behind and get the second place win from Nicki
Speaker 1: and maybe get like eighteen to twenty percentage point. And
Speaker 1: I think Nicki's support in this poll is a bit overstated.
Speaker 1: That you can knock off like five points when the
Speaker 1: des Moin registered poll, and that's roughly where Niky'll come in.
Speaker 1: I think the vehicleill be a little bit stronger. I
Speaker 1: think the one registaple had him at eight. I put
Speaker 1: him at like ten. Yes, because he's done so much
Speaker 1: and we'll put the map up on the screen a
Speaker 1: little bit when we talk about more about him and Trump.
Speaker 1: He has done so much work on the ground. I
Speaker 1: just have to in my head believe that that counts
Speaker 1: for something. That you know, his people because they met him,
Speaker 1: because he was there, they feel some sort of commitment
Speaker 1: to him to actually turn.
Speaker 4: Up on a difficult caucus night.
Speaker 1: So I put him more in the ten percentage points,
Speaker 1: which is kind of why I'm thinking maybe Trump stays
Speaker 1: under fifty percentage points because out of all of these candidates,
Speaker 1: Vivek eats into Trump's margins the most because they're running
Speaker 1: the most similar type of campaign.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so my numbers are I agree with you.
Speaker 2: I think Trump is roughly going to be where he
Speaker 2: is he's going to be around forty eight fifty percent.
Speaker 3: It's possible that he goes over it.
Speaker 2: Actually, I would say it's more likely just because of
Speaker 2: the whole second system.
Speaker 3: I agree completely.
Speaker 2: I think Nikki Haley's support is vastly overstated, So she's
Speaker 2: going to come down probably to third percent. Ron will
Speaker 2: come in in second, but likely where Haley currently is
Speaker 2: around twenty. And I also believe that vivek Ramaswami, I
Speaker 2: think he could go as high as fifteen percent. Possibly,
Speaker 2: I think he may. It's possible he could even beat
Speaker 2: Nikki Haley. This could be totally wrong. And actually this
Speaker 2: is going to be a big task. We're going to
Speaker 2: talk a lot about this in our avake section. Is
Speaker 2: I still have to believe, as you do, that this
Speaker 2: stuff matters. Handshaking matters, going to ninety four out of
Speaker 2: the ninety nine counties in Iowa matters, spending millions of dollars,
Speaker 2: you know, traversing the state. He's got all of these
Speaker 2: endorsements of these local politicians. Steve King, you know, the
Speaker 2: former congressman. Also, Listen, he matters in Iowa.
Speaker 3: Okay. He was a very popular man, and.
Speaker 4: I'm not that popular.
Speaker 1: I mean, he almost lost in like an extraordinarily Republican.
Speaker 3: District amongst Republicans. He is pop didn't he.
Speaker 4: Lose in a primary Republican primary.
Speaker 3: It's complicated. Yeah, more and I would say is amongst
Speaker 3: Trump people.
Speaker 4: So that's who i'd want bagging.
Speaker 3: Among the Trump people. That's who I would want on
Speaker 3: my side.
Speaker 2: So he's got enough of these like he's got these
Speaker 2: MAGA Every MAGA influencer in the country is down with
Speaker 2: Evic right now in his suburban traversing the state. You've
Speaker 2: got people like canvae Owens who've been going around with him.
Speaker 2: My point only being that I think it's understated to
Speaker 2: a point. I've also seen some polls as well that
Speaker 2: have either left him out or they're diminishing his support.
Speaker 2: So if there is to be an upset, I think
Speaker 2: it would be him maybe coming in third. And look,
Speaker 2: maybe this is hopium on my part. I just want
Speaker 2: to believe that campaigning still matters. Yeah, but it's possible
Speaker 2: it doesn't.
Speaker 3: It may not at all. I think it's totally wrong
Speaker 3: for me.
Speaker 1: My thinking on Viveke cuts in two directions, which is
Speaker 1: why I only give him like a couple point bump
Speaker 1: over what the de Wine Register poll has him at,
Speaker 1: which is on the one hand, yeah, I think that
Speaker 1: in person stuff matters. On the other hand, I feel
Speaker 1: like the like internet fueled candidates typically underperform.
Speaker 4: I'm thinking about Andrew Yang.
Speaker 1: Yeah, last time around, where you had all of this online,
Speaker 1: he was everywhere and there's huge support, and you're thinking,
Speaker 1: this has got to count for something in the polls,
Speaker 1: and he's got Dave Chappelle and other people who were
Speaker 1: campaigning for him, and then when it comes down to
Speaker 1: caucus night, he actually underperforms where it was in the polls.
Speaker 1: And you know, I feel like that's sort of a
Speaker 1: case with these candidates who are very online, which I
Speaker 1: would characterize Viveke as being. So that's why I give
Speaker 1: him a little bump up for all the work that
Speaker 1: he's doing on the grounds. But the other problem for
Speaker 1: him is, like you know, his supporters and we'll talk
Speaker 1: about this more when we get to the Vivike versus
Speaker 1: Trump thing, but like they're basically Trump supporters.
Speaker 4: They still like Trump.
Speaker 1: I mean, Vivig's still out there like he's the greatest
Speaker 1: president of all times. So why are you going to
Speaker 1: vote for vivec instead of Trump. Then it doesn't make
Speaker 1: a lot of sense, and that's why he struggled to
Speaker 1: achieve lyftoff. But I mean, fundamentally, it's kind of the
Speaker 1: same problem that all of these candidates have faced, which
Speaker 1: is that they all ran campaigns that were predicated on
Speaker 1: something will take Trump out of the equation. I'm not
Speaker 1: going to be the one to make the argument to
Speaker 1: take him out of the equation, but something maybe will
Speaker 1: happen that will take him out of the equation, and
Speaker 1: I'm going to position myself to be the top Trump
Speaker 1: alternative that simply hasn't manifested itself. Trump is still there,
Speaker 1: He's in some way stronger than other I saw. Ever
Speaker 1: I saw I think it was a CBS News poll
Speaker 1: that came out this weekend that had him at his
Speaker 1: highest level national support in terms of Republican primary. Yet,
Speaker 1: so if they were betting on Trump just vanishing and
Speaker 1: going away or being imprisoned or whatever, that certainly hasn't
Speaker 1: panned out. Has left them all bizarrely squabbling for a
Speaker 1: meaningless second place position that doesn't even make any sense.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I saw a DeSantis kind of I guess influencer
Speaker 2: if you will, And I was reading some of his
Speaker 2: thought process. Yeah, it's Will Chamberlain. Just so people know,
Speaker 2: I've followed him now for quite a long time. He
Speaker 2: was actually why he interests me is he was a
Speaker 2: mag guy and now he's DeSantis guy very much on
Speaker 2: the case of like Desanti's the guy who will actually
Speaker 2: get it done, and he's like, look, at the end
Speaker 2: of the day, like RDS tried his best, like he
Speaker 2: ran out race, which is one about actually getting things done,
Speaker 2: but the dynamics of the race just were fundamentally difficult
Speaker 2: after the mar A Lago raid. And I do really think,
Speaker 2: you know, history is very different if that mar A
Speaker 2: Lago raid does not happen. I'm not saying you wouldn't win,
Speaker 2: but I don't know necessarily if he would be able
Speaker 2: to win as much. If you look, and it's very
Speaker 2: interesting if I've gone through and read the quotes that
Speaker 2: you know that in general that the reporters are able
Speaker 2: to find amongst these people who are like I'm all
Speaker 2: in with Trump no matter what, almost every single one
Speaker 2: of them are like look at Colorado, look at mar Lago,
Speaker 2: look at what happened here. They're out to at him,
Speaker 2: you know, I mean, Tucker even he was like, listen,
Speaker 2: you know, you can't let that stand. Maybe they would
Speaker 2: all come up with different excuses. It's actually incredibly possible. Yeah,
Speaker 2: if they're running, but it's convenient enough that it's enough
Speaker 2: to just be like, no, I'm not even going to
Speaker 2: think about it.
Speaker 1: I mean, if you're a Desanta's person, I think that's reasonable.
Speaker 3: Cope.
Speaker 4: But I do think it's cope because.
Speaker 1: Maybe even before the mar Alago raid, we were looking
Speaker 1: at this thing and saying it just doesn't make sense
Speaker 1: because you have to give people a reason to abandon
Speaker 1: this guy, and you're not willing to do that. And
Speaker 1: by the way, they still really like him and he's
Speaker 1: still extremely popular, So I don't really think that it
Speaker 1: maybe like sharpened the dynamics or consolidated them more quickly.
Speaker 1: But you also have to look at the fact that
Speaker 1: once Ronda Santa's actually got out on the campaign trail,
Speaker 1: he's an awkward dude. He's not charismatic, he's not compelling,
Speaker 1: he's like kind of hard to watch and kind of
Speaker 1: hard to be around, and he's not that great on
Speaker 1: a debate stage. So even if you hadn't had the
Speaker 1: mar A Lago raid, I don't think that Ron de
Speaker 1: Santis would have worn well over time and been able
Speaker 1: to maintain the margins that he was hitting, which he
Speaker 1: was still trailing Trump even right after the midterms, when
Speaker 1: you had this dramatic demonstration of like, oh well, the
Speaker 1: Trump back candidates got their butts handed to them and
Speaker 1: Ron DeSantis romped in Florida. You know, I always think
Speaker 1: those memories we're going to fade pretty quickly, especially when
Speaker 1: you just look at these two people and putting aside
Speaker 1: however you feel about them, which I don't feel great
Speaker 1: about either one of them. Trump has just so much
Speaker 1: more of an in factor. He is so much more
Speaker 1: of a star player. DeSantis is so much more of
Speaker 1: a like B League player. It's just manifestly obvious when
Speaker 1: you see the two of them out there on the
Speaker 1: campaign trail. So even without mar A Lago Colorado or whatever,
Speaker 1: I think this was going to be the inevitable results.
Speaker 4: Look, we will never know.
Speaker 2: That's what I always believe too. I was just trying
Speaker 2: to give the case. What I would say with Trump is,
Speaker 2: to your point, he's funny, man, don't. I don't know
Speaker 2: what else to say. He's good, he loves he loves
Speaker 2: the game. He loves being up there as evidence of that,
Speaker 2: and he's funny. Just take a look at what he
Speaker 2: said to people about why they need to come out
Speaker 2: and vote for in the Iowa caucuses even if they're
Speaker 2: sick as a dog.
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen. You can't sit home.
Speaker 2: If you're sick as.
Speaker 8: A dog, you said, Darland, I gotta think even if
Speaker 8: you vote and then pass away, it's worth it.
Speaker 2: Even if you vote and die, it's still what's worth it.
Speaker 3: As long as he come out for Trump. I'm incredible.
Speaker 3: There's nobody else who would.
Speaker 4: Say Ronda Santas was not going to compete with them.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's just too.
Speaker 1: And there is no alternate timeline in which Ronda Santas wins.
Speaker 4: That's right.
Speaker 2: We got a friend, James Johnson who helps conduct our
Speaker 2: focus groups. He's on the ground actually in Iowa and
Speaker 2: he's going to join us now.
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen.
Speaker 2: Joining us now is our very own James Johnson from
Speaker 2: JLP Partners.
Speaker 3: He conducts our focus groups.
Speaker 2: If you can't recognize him there in his cold weather guard,
Speaker 2: but he's actually on the ground in Iowa City, Iowa.
Speaker 2: So James, welcome to the show. Thank you for taking
Speaker 2: the time, Thank.
Speaker 1: You for suffering on our behalf. We appreciate it.
Speaker 9: Thank you. Two pairs of trousers on.
Speaker 1: It's a smart man, man man.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So we're going to keep this as short as
Speaker 2: possible so that you can get yourself inside. James, you've
Speaker 2: been conducting interviews with caucus goers. Tell us a little
Speaker 2: bit about what you're learning speaking to voters on the ground,
Speaker 2: who you were hearing from in terms of the type
Speaker 2: of support for each individual candidate, and what do you
Speaker 2: expect to happen tonight.
Speaker 9: Yeah. Well, the first thing I think to say is
Speaker 9: that we put out a recruiting call when we try
Speaker 9: and get our interviews, so we can try and make
Speaker 9: sure that we're getting a fair range of people, people
Speaker 9: who might represent the middle of Iowa politics. And I
Speaker 9: have to say, the number of Trump supporters we've had
Speaker 9: in return is really quite significant, and that obviously mirrors
Speaker 9: what people are seeing in the polls as well. Trump
Speaker 9: is clearly the favorite going into tonight, and the voters
Speaker 9: who are backing Trump, it's interesting, they're not factional, they're
Speaker 9: not sort of you know, really hardcore trumpists ready to
Speaker 9: go out and rally for the former president. They're middle
Speaker 9: of the ground Republicans who simply see him as the incumbent.
Speaker 9: They see him as strong, they see as someone who
Speaker 9: gets things done, and they see him as somebody who's
Speaker 9: had an effective first term. I was speaking to a
Speaker 9: chap last week in Davenport in Iowa, and he said
Speaker 9: that he was worried about the economy prices going up.
Speaker 9: He thought Trump would fix that because of his record.
Speaker 9: He's worried about the southern border. He thought Trump would
Speaker 9: finish the wall, and he's worried that under Biden we
Speaker 9: need to quote prepare for war because Russia and North
Speaker 9: Korea would take advantage of him. He sees Trump as
Speaker 9: the strong man to counter that. So there's definitely a
Speaker 9: lot of that ground spell of support for Trump here,
Speaker 9: but there's also good support for Ronda Santis as well.
Speaker 9: He's clearly had a very effective ground campaign in the state.
Speaker 9: People who are a bit less sure on Trump but
Speaker 9: still want that sort of hard conservative politics, fiery conservative
Speaker 9: politics are going with rohnd De Santis, Nikki Haley a
Speaker 9: little bit more muted. It's interesting if you look at
Speaker 9: that Seltzer pole that came out just a couple of
Speaker 9: days ago the final Iowa pole it showed Nicki Haley
Speaker 9: in second place, but it also showed that half of
Speaker 9: her support came from Democrats and independents. And you might
Speaker 9: be able to see from me now that it's very
Speaker 9: cold here, and I'm not convinced that Nicki Haley is
Speaker 9: going to be able to turn out loads of new
Speaker 9: registrants to the Republican Party tonight to get her over
Speaker 9: the line.
Speaker 1: And how about the vig Ramaswami who Trump has just
Speaker 1: gone after they've been Vivik had an interesting responseing basically like,
Speaker 1: I'm sort of protecting Trump from himself. They're going to
Speaker 1: take him out. A vote for me is a vote
Speaker 1: to protect Trump? Is expectively the case he's making there.
Speaker 1: But Vivik has spent more time in Iowa, done more
Speaker 1: events than any other candidate. Do you see any signs
Speaker 1: that that has moved the needle for him in a
Speaker 1: way that may not be been getting picked up in
Speaker 1: the polls.
Speaker 9: I think the vake Ramaswami might slightly overform his polling,
Speaker 9: but I think that's going to be hard for him
Speaker 9: to break ten fifteen percent. And the reason why is
Speaker 9: that for a lot of voters. They're not paying attention
Speaker 9: to the minute shy, They're not going to all these
Speaker 9: IORA events for them. They just look at the news
Speaker 9: and they see Trump and then there's the Santists and
Speaker 9: Haley who are close who are behind him, and that's
Speaker 9: sort of their calculation. I do think the Backgroundswami's clearly
Speaker 9: ran a punchy campaign. If there's one impact of it,
Speaker 9: it might be an accidental one. His straight talking and
Speaker 9: plain speaking has shone a bit of a light on
Speaker 9: Ron De Santis and Nikki Haley for being a little
Speaker 9: bit more polished, a little bit more manufactured. A chap
Speaker 9: I was talking to again last week in Iowa. He
Speaker 9: was saying that I like the Santis, but he's a
Speaker 9: bit of a wanna bee, he's a little bit of
Speaker 9: a politician wanna be And they didn't like that too
Speaker 9: much at all.
Speaker 2: I could see some of that, So I mean, in overall, James,
Speaker 2: could you just tell us about any unexpected things you
Speaker 2: think the weather obviously, as you can see behind you,
Speaker 2: you think that's going to play a major role. Anything
Speaker 2: else that our viewers should look out for.
Speaker 9: I think the big number to watch is Trump support.
Speaker 9: If Donald Trump gets below forty percent, then he is
Speaker 9: going to be in trouble. In those later primaries, people
Speaker 9: are going to say Trump hasn't got the support he wanted.
Speaker 9: He's in a dangerous position. He's going into this race
Speaker 9: with high polling numbers, and Iowa and these primaries are
Speaker 9: all of our expectations and beating expectations, so he is
Speaker 9: He's going in with those high expectations. That he gets
Speaker 9: below forty percent, that's going to be a lot of
Speaker 9: scrutiny on Donald Trump's sport. If he gets over fifty percent,
Speaker 9: then I think a lot of people are going to
Speaker 9: be saying, let's just wrap it up now. And if
Speaker 9: he gets in between forty and fifty, then we may
Speaker 9: well see a competitive New Hampshire, But ultimately he'll probably
Speaker 9: succeed in those super Suesday states. So that's what I'd
Speaker 9: say to watch out for. Yes, the race for second
Speaker 9: place is interesting, but it's going to be whether Trump
Speaker 9: goes below forty or over fifty that will really make
Speaker 9: the difference.
Speaker 1: Tonight, last question I got for you, James, and then
Speaker 1: we'll let you get back inside where it is hopefully
Speaker 1: a little bit warmer.
Speaker 4: One theory that I have seen that.
Speaker 1: I don't particularly buy, but I want to see if
Speaker 1: you see any signs of this. Is that people basically
Speaker 1: take for granted that Trump's going to win. So, yeah,
Speaker 1: his supporters are numerous. They are excited about Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: But when they're looking at like minus thirty degrees and
Speaker 1: snowpiled up, they might think, like, this guy's got in
Speaker 1: the bag anyway, he doesn't really need me to come
Speaker 1: out and caucus for them, so I'm just going to
Speaker 1: stay home and be warm and cozy. Do you see
Speaker 1: any signs or any possibility of that coming through?
Speaker 9: Yeah, so definitely, Donald Trump supporters are more likely to
Speaker 9: be first time caucus goers. You're absolutely right, O. Interesting,
Speaker 9: They're also the more likely to be enthusiastic across the board.
Speaker 9: So in that Seltzer poll, eighty eight percent of Trump
Speaker 9: supporters said they were enthusiastic about turning out for him.
Speaker 9: That was the highest of all the candidates. Now, when
Speaker 9: you drilled down to very enthusiastic, the santist fit the post.
Speaker 9: But I still think those overall numbers of enthusiasm for
Speaker 9: Trump will get his people, his people there if anybody's
Speaker 9: not going to be turning out it will be Democrats
Speaker 9: and Independents. You can register to be a Republican on
Speaker 9: the night tonight, regardless of how you voted or how
Speaker 9: your registration.
Speaker 3: Has been in the past.
Speaker 9: But can I see droves of Democrats and independence coming
Speaker 9: out and registering Republican onlyed to reregister as their existing
Speaker 9: party a couple of weeks later on a night like this.
Speaker 9: On let's face it not the most exciting primary season
Speaker 9: of the last twenty years or so. I can't see it.
Speaker 9: And I think that's going to mean that the Santas
Speaker 9: and Trump do quite well tonight.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, we really appreciate you taking the time, James.
Speaker 2: Go get inside, drink some tea as I know you
Speaker 2: guys would like to do, and get warm for us,
Speaker 2: and we will talk to you very very soon, my friend.
Speaker 4: Yes, stay safe, James, thank you, great to chat.
Speaker 3: Guys.
Speaker 2: Absolutely At the same time, as we've teased so many
Speaker 2: times so far, Donald Trump finally is a gloves off
Speaker 2: on Vivike Ramaswami. Let's gohead and put this up there
Speaker 2: on the screen. Broke over the weekend from Donald Trump's
Speaker 2: truth quote. Viveke started as campaign as a great supporter,
Speaker 2: the best president in generations. Unfortunately, now all he does
Speaker 2: is disguise his support in the form of deceitful campaign tricks.
Speaker 2: Very sly, but a vote for Viveke is a vote
Speaker 2: for the other side. Don't get duped by this vote
Speaker 2: for Trump. Don't waste your vote. Viveke is not maga.
Speaker 2: The Biden indictments against his political opponent, all capitalized for
Speaker 2: no reason, will never be allowed in this country. They
Speaker 2: are already beginning to fall maga. Okay, So making the
Speaker 2: case there that Vivek is a vote for.
Speaker 3: The other side. So how does Avic handle this?
Speaker 2: He basically is kept saying Donald Trump is the best
Speaker 2: president in my lifetime. I'm running actually to defend Trump
Speaker 2: because I'm the one that can get it done. He
Speaker 2: put out a very very long message on Twitter. Let's
Speaker 2: go and put this up there on the screen. He says, Yes,
Speaker 2: I saw President Trump's truth social posts. It's an unfortunate
Speaker 2: move by his campaign advisors. I don't think everything is
Speaker 2: never Trump's fault. I don't think friendly fire is helpful.
Speaker 2: Donald Trump was the greatest president of the twenty first century.
Speaker 2: I'm not going to criticize him. In response to this
Speaker 2: laced attack, then he goes on I've met thousands of islands,
Speaker 2: but here is a little bit of his message. I'm
Speaker 2: worried for Trump. I'm worried for our country. I've stood
Speaker 2: up against the prosecutions of Trump. I've defended him at
Speaker 2: every step. I showed up at the Miami Courthouse, et cetera,
Speaker 2: et cetera. I pledge myself to remove from Maine in
Speaker 2: Colorado ballots if they remove Trump.
Speaker 3: But we have to open our eyes.
Speaker 2: Last time it was a man made pan pandemic, big
Speaker 2: tech election interference. Now the same billionaires funding the lawsuits
Speaker 2: against Trump are the ones trying to prop up Nikki Haley.
Speaker 2: The same MSN blasting Trump is lavishing praise on her.
Speaker 2: They want to narrow this to a two horse race
Speaker 2: between Trump and Haley and eliminate Trump one way or
Speaker 2: the other and trot out their puppet into the White House.
Speaker 2: We cannot fall for that trap. One year from now,
Speaker 2: we won't look back and say we were shocked that happened,
Speaker 2: will kick ourselves for not stopping it. Our movement LA
Speaker 2: must live on, et cetera, et cetera. I mean, it
Speaker 2: basically just comes and boils down to this, which is.
Speaker 2: It's a very nice way of saying, I like Trump,
Speaker 2: all you people who support him, but he's too dumb
Speaker 2: to actually do any of the things that he said
Speaker 2: he was going to do, and I'm the person that
Speaker 2: can get it done. Compelling message, one that appeals, though
Speaker 2: to only someone who thinks that Trump doesn't have the
Speaker 2: requisite skills to pull off what he does want to do,
Speaker 2: whereas the vast majority of Republican voters are like, no, actually,
Speaker 2: I'm totally cool with Trump. I believe in Trump. I
Speaker 2: think he can do whatever he is promising me. So
Speaker 2: part of the reason why Vivek has had a problem
Speaker 2: getting to the high level traction that we originally saw
Speaker 2: some flirtation with him, And just in general, why Vivike
Speaker 2: proving that you can be anti Trump as Haley was,
Speaker 2: you can be pro Trump as Vike was, you can
Speaker 2: be everything in between for all of these people, but
Speaker 2: if you're not named Trump, you're just probably not going
Speaker 2: to win this primary.
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm sorry, but I think this is a
Speaker 1: really embarrassing message to be like, to try to persuade
Speaker 1: voters that the way to help Trump is to vote
Speaker 1: against Trump.
Speaker 4: Who's going to buy that?
Speaker 3: People are smart. It doesn't make any.
Speaker 4: Sense, you know.
Speaker 1: And so Vivic has this whole conspiracy that he lays
Speaker 1: out of, like they want to narrow it to a
Speaker 1: two person race, and then somehow something's gonna happen that's
Speaker 1: going to remove Trump from the race, and then they're
Speaker 1: going to trot Nicky Haley into the White House.
Speaker 4: And so I'm helping Trump.
Speaker 1: I'm helping to save Trump by having you vote against Trump.
Speaker 1: And so in a sense, I mean what Trump said there,
Speaker 1: if this is effectively like a sly campaign trick, I mean,
Speaker 1: I think that's basically like a cure is right, It's
Speaker 1: basically accurate.
Speaker 4: That's true. Vivec is trying to posture life.
Speaker 1: I am even more pro Trump than Trump himself is.
Speaker 1: And that way to support Trump the hardest and be
Speaker 1: the biggest MAGA supporter is to vote against Trump and.
Speaker 4: Vote for me. And I just obviously that argument's not
Speaker 4: going to win the day.
Speaker 6: Now.
Speaker 1: Look, as we said before, do I think he can
Speaker 1: maybe get to ten percent and the iowacaccusus maybe, but
Speaker 1: all of these candidates, maybe no one more than the
Speaker 1: Veke Ramaswami really bet on.
Speaker 4: If Trump is out of.
Speaker 1: The race, then I've got a wayne, then I've got
Speaker 1: a shot. And especially because the people who like the
Speaker 1: Veke are basically just Trump supporters, Like there's very few
Speaker 1: people who are Viveke number one and Trump number two.
Speaker 1: Most people are Trump number one, and then a good
Speaker 1: number of them are the Veke number two. But if
Speaker 1: Trump is in the race, like your whole theory here
Speaker 1: doesn't really pan out. So this jiu jitsu move that
Speaker 1: he's trying to pull of, like the way to be
Speaker 1: the most pro maga is to actually vote against Donald Trump.
Speaker 4: I don't think that's going to work out too.
Speaker 2: The only way it works, Crystal is if Trump literally
Speaker 2: ends up in prison or disqualified by you know, to
Speaker 2: not run, then maybe, look, maybe it was a smart strategy,
Speaker 2: but in the interim where you can't really bet on
Speaker 2: something like that, it's just not going to work. We
Speaker 2: see there's an interesting there's video that's come out from
Speaker 2: Vi Veig on the ground in Iowa. This is actually
Speaker 2: being put out by the Trump people, not Trump campaign
Speaker 2: for itself, kind of showing the way that he's making
Speaker 2: his pitch.
Speaker 3: To Trump voters themselves.
Speaker 2: Pay very close attention to his language, to the way
Speaker 2: that he tries to convince this Trump voter to switch
Speaker 2: over to vote for him.
Speaker 3: Let's take a lesson.
Speaker 5: They're scared of you.
Speaker 10: You're scared of Trump, and they.
Speaker 3: Will stop at nothing.
Speaker 5: But we're not going to let him get away with it.
Speaker 8: I've got fresh legs, I'm not wounded. They're not going
Speaker 8: to let this man do it.
Speaker 4: You know when you gave me a hill because.
Speaker 3: I'm scared because you think it's false, because you think
Speaker 3: it's true. I think it's true.
Speaker 8: I think they will stop as to stop them, stop Trump.
Speaker 8: I am.
Speaker 3: It's sad, but it's the truth. It's the sad, but
Speaker 3: it's the truth. So I'm asking you do your partner,
Speaker 3: We're going to you know, we can do this.
Speaker 8: We can do this. They say, how do you feel
Speaker 8: about the United States?
Speaker 3: And I say, I'm worried and I'm fearful.
Speaker 5: That you don't have to feel that way in this country.
Speaker 9: But we're losing it.
Speaker 3: We need people like you.
Speaker 8: You're by doing this and that's where our founding fathers were. Yes,
Speaker 8: it's seventeen seventy six moments soon.
Speaker 5: I want your support that iowall call distry. I need emotional.
Speaker 1: I'm emotional.
Speaker 5: About this country. I need your support on Monday night.
Speaker 3: You do this, I'm gonna do my part.
Speaker 8: Okay, you're picking at my shell, you are, but you know.
Speaker 3: It's about this country. It's about this country you want
Speaker 3: to save. You want to save Trump.
Speaker 4: You vote for me.
Speaker 3: I'm telling you that you have.
Speaker 8: If you vote for Trump, you're sending him a sledgeham.
Speaker 8: But you're sending him to his own demise. You're falling
Speaker 8: into the trap. Then not only a country's falling in
Speaker 8: that he's falling. You want to save Trump, you vote
Speaker 8: for me. I need your support at the Iowa Caucus.
Speaker 3: That's a good argument. It's good.
Speaker 5: It's not an argument, it's the truth. Do the right
Speaker 5: thing for him this country. That's what I'm.
Speaker 3: Asking you for.
Speaker 2: Interesting, I mean, I don't know if it's going to
Speaker 2: work out. It was took him over a minute in
Speaker 2: order to Did she get convinced? What do you think
Speaker 2: did she come away say?
Speaker 1: The fact that she's saying the candidate to his face
Speaker 1: like maybe mean no.
Speaker 4: That means.
Speaker 10: No.
Speaker 1: Even if the person says I am one hundred percent
Speaker 1: with you, discount fifty percent of those. But the one
Speaker 1: that's like yeah, maybe I'll consider it. No, they are
Speaker 1: not voting for you. But I mean this again, to
Speaker 1: save Trump vote for me. Who's buying that. That's it's silly,
Speaker 1: it's ridiculous, it's embarrassing to make that case. And I
Speaker 1: go back to what James was saying, which I think
Speaker 1: was various student analysis of effectively, like listen, Republican voters,
Speaker 1: they see Trump as the incumbent, they see him as
Speaker 1: the default.
Speaker 4: And so if you weren't making.
Speaker 1: A very very very compelling case to move them off
Speaker 1: of Trump to you, not for some elaborate conspiratorial argument
Speaker 1: confusing our forty chess argument about how really by voting
Speaker 1: against Trump you're saving Trump, et cetera. If you aren't
Speaker 1: making a straightforward, compelling case of why you need to
Speaker 1: move on for Donald Trump, it's not going to work out.
Speaker 1: And here's the other thing with Vic that I also
Speaker 1: want to say, is like this man has really changed
Speaker 1: his colors to to suit what he thinks is like
Speaker 1: where he should be both for this campaign but also
Speaker 1: for whatever like potential media opportunities he wants for the future.
Speaker 4: Right after January.
Speaker 1: Sixth, he said that he cried when he watched What
Speaker 1: Habit on Jerry six and then this year he's like
Speaker 1: tweeting out happy in Trapman Day. So what he said
Speaker 1: in his book very different from the way he's positioned
Speaker 1: himself in this campaign, et cetera. You know, his whole
Speaker 1: book also was about like anti wokeness and esg the
Speaker 1: moment he realized that that wasn't really selling, he shifts
Speaker 1: messages again.
Speaker 4: So I also think there is a little.
Speaker 1: Bit with voters of a sense of this man as
Speaker 1: trying to just position himself to what he thinks we
Speaker 1: want to hear.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, he definitely is all over the place.
Speaker 2: His defense is that he didn't know about the entrapment
Speaker 2: on January sixth. I mean, listen, I think there has
Speaker 2: obviously been a lot of political calculation behind it. What's
Speaker 2: interesting to me actually was the question of why Trump
Speaker 2: has decided to come out against him now, because Trump
Speaker 2: nothing Trump loves more is the meant to see somebody
Speaker 2: who is on television who is not named Trump, who
Speaker 2: is defending Trump.
Speaker 3: So he's held his fire on him. Now.
Speaker 2: Part of the reasoning is, let's put this up there
Speaker 2: on the screen. Bloomberg and others quoting people inside the
Speaker 2: Trump campaign, is that Trump is pissed because, according to
Speaker 2: his internals, Vivek Ramaswami is one of the people who
Speaker 2: is keeping him from under fifty percent. He desperately wants
Speaker 2: to get over fifty in Iowa and then over fifty
Speaker 2: again in the state of New Hampshire to seal everything
Speaker 2: up before it even gets to South Carolina, Florida and
Speaker 2: to Super Tuesday. The eight percent of Ramaswam, Yeah, I
Speaker 2: think it's pretty unquestioning to say, it's obvious that almost
Speaker 2: all of that would be going to Trump if he
Speaker 2: wasn't in the race. The question, as we alluded to
Speaker 2: previously Crystal, is how much does ground game in any
Speaker 2: of this matter. Viveke has put in more work than
Speaker 2: all of these other candidates honestly combined.
Speaker 3: Let's put this up there on the screen.
Speaker 2: As you can see, the Veke has done two hundred
Speaker 2: and thirty nine events in ninety four counties. Nikki Haley,
Speaker 2: by contrast, has done fifty one events in thirty counties.
Speaker 2: Rohnd De Santis ninety nine events and fifty seven counties,
Speaker 2: and Donald Trump has only done twenty four events Crystal
Speaker 2: in nineteen counties. He didn't even show up in del
Speaker 2: Iowa till yesterday. He didn't do the traditional week long stretch.
Speaker 2: He did much more on the ground. Now, obviously he
Speaker 2: didn't necessarily have to do that. So if the Vike
Speaker 2: does overperform, and it's possible also that Trump's internal show
Speaker 2: a lot of that second choice stuff going on, which
Speaker 2: with Trump for Vike Ramaswami voters, that could be why
Speaker 2: he ended up attacking him. And I think really one
Speaker 2: he wanted to do is undercut Vivic's permission structure of
Speaker 2: like vote for me to save Trump. He's like, Trump
Speaker 2: is like, just to be one hundred percent clear, that's
Speaker 2: not what it is.
Speaker 3: You should just vote for Trump.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and to be clear, this is not it's basically
Speaker 1: which I think people will be very receptive to hearing
Speaker 1: because it's kind it's an absurd case that he's making.
Speaker 1: But if you look at this number of events in
Speaker 1: the state based on the Selzer poll, it is entirely
Speaker 1: possible that you end up with an inverse relationship between
Speaker 1: the number of events that were conducted in the state
Speaker 1: and the success in the state. Because Trump did the
Speaker 1: fewest events and he's obviously in first. Nikki did the
Speaker 1: second fewest events, and according to that, polschas in second
Speaker 1: ron did you know the next he did ninety nine
Speaker 1: events and he's in third and Vivek is in fourth
Speaker 1: with the most events on the board. I don't know
Speaker 1: what Asa Hutchinson has done, how many events he's done,
Speaker 1: so I'm not sure where he fits into this calculation.
Speaker 1: But I mean, that would be a pretty stunning repudiation
Speaker 1: of like our self conception of how politics work, and
Speaker 1: especially how the Iowa caucuses work and what actually moves
Speaker 1: voters in these states.
Speaker 3: You saw a lot of this in twenty sixteen.
Speaker 2: I can stay anecdotally from speaking to people who are
Speaker 2: involved in many of the races Trump, Rubio, Ted Cruz
Speaker 2: and others. They all told me the same thing. They've
Speaker 2: said a lot of this ground stuff it doesn't matter
Speaker 2: at all now. For Cruise, it did push him over
Speaker 2: the edge. But Fox News is really what the primary
Speaker 2: was all about. All of them said that in most
Speaker 2: cases they were better off doing Fox and Friends than
Speaker 2: they were trying to hold an event driving two hours
Speaker 2: across god Taking state in the middle of the snow,
Speaker 2: and that they could almost always reach more people that
Speaker 2: earn media would eventually find its way out there and
Speaker 2: that in general, the national mood or the Fox News
Speaker 2: primary was ten, fifteen, twenty times more important to people's votes. Now,
Speaker 2: like I said, it can help you if it can,
Speaker 2: you know, to push you over the edge quote unquote
Speaker 2: maybe four or five percent something like that in the
Speaker 2: case of Ted Cruz, but it cannot bring you from
Speaker 2: zero to fifteen.
Speaker 3: And that's what Vivek is trying to do.
Speaker 1: Basically, events at this point, campaign events, wherever they occur
Speaker 1: iowaen to Hampshire, whatever, they should be seen by campaigns
Speaker 1: as generating media content to be distributed through social media
Speaker 1: or to generate some moment that's going to be covered
Speaker 1: by traditional media. But you know, going schlepping three hours
Speaker 1: to somewhere in Iowa to speak to thirty people, obviously,
Speaker 1: that's not a great return on investment in and of itself.
Speaker 1: If you again have like you know, Bernie Sanders did
Speaker 1: this well, if you have a campaign team, a videographer
Speaker 1: that you're creating, pumping out your own content based on
Speaker 1: your interactions with voters. This is getting put up on
Speaker 1: various social media platforms to generate buzz an interest far
Speaker 1: outside of Iowa. Yes, then that can make sense. But
Speaker 1: you know, these little campaign events in the diner, you know,
Speaker 1: or in the coffeehouse or whatever, in and of themselves.
Speaker 4: It's just not the way the campaigns.
Speaker 3: Work now, right exactly.
Speaker 2: I mean because if it but unfortunately, you know, if
Speaker 2: let's say he underperforms, what message does that really tell us.
Speaker 2: It's like, you don't need to spend any time on
Speaker 2: the state at all. He should just be the incumbent.
Speaker 2: You should get as much earned media attention as possible
Speaker 2: in the circles or whatever that matter to you. I
Speaker 2: think that's sad, but you know, sometimes it is what
Speaker 2: it is. We're a far cry from two thousand and eight,
Speaker 2: where Barack Obama, I mean, bet his entire case on
Speaker 2: these little Iowa towns. I mean, he spent he spent
Speaker 2: so much time there, and you know, had all these
Speaker 2: college students who flocked across the country they're organizing, and
Speaker 2: all that mattered. It was like a traditional story in
Speaker 2: American politics. But you know, the farther we are away
Speaker 2: from that, it just looks.
Speaker 3: Like ancient history. Unfortunately.
Speaker 2: Now let's move on to Ron DeSantis. Okay, so things
Speaker 2: I could see.
Speaker 3: Things going two ways.
Speaker 2: We could have a narrative out of tonight where if
Speaker 2: DeSantis overperforms expectations by beating Nikki Haley, maybe he gets
Speaker 2: a good news cycle. But let's say he still gets
Speaker 2: beaten by thirty points. Friend Ronald Trump, Well, it's going
Speaker 2: to be difficult for him. DeSantis has also boxed himself
Speaker 2: now into a corner where there's no not like vi
Speaker 2: veg there's no job for him waiting on the other side.
Speaker 3: Yeah, but you know, the bridge has been burned.
Speaker 2: Even just today, DeSantis put out a quote at an
Speaker 2: event and he was like, look, he can be the
Speaker 2: most worthless person in the country, but if you say
Speaker 2: you love Trump, then he'll shower you with praise. True, accurate.
Speaker 2: Not necessarily something you want to say, though, if you
Speaker 2: want to remain in the man's good graces. But he's
Speaker 2: burned a lot of bridges with Trump people. It's clear
Speaker 2: also that a lot of the Trump campaign, Trump voters
Speaker 2: and others have genuine like personal enmity. Now at this
Speaker 2: point for him, none of that was best. All that
Speaker 2: was on display when a voter walked right up to
Speaker 2: his face to try and present him with a participation trophy.
Speaker 3: In Iowa.
Speaker 2: This is especially brutal to watch because his wife had
Speaker 2: to step in to try and save him.
Speaker 3: Let's just take a lesson real quick before we get started.
Speaker 10: Thank you everyone.
Speaker 3: Governor DeSantis. I want to present to you this participation trophy.
Speaker 2: Probably not gonna win the election, right, but we're crowding trying.
Speaker 10: And he's our little snowflake and here you got. Man.
Speaker 2: That's that's tough to watch. Crystal's wife's got to step
Speaker 2: in for him. He is also so awkward because that,
Speaker 2: you know, what you gotta do in politics. Somebody like
Speaker 2: Vivek would have. Vivek has been doing this thing where
Speaker 2: every time a protester shows up, he like engages with
Speaker 2: them and he talks them and rhetorically spars and does
Speaker 2: like a Ben Shapiro level like beat down. Trump would
Speaker 2: be like, get him out of here, go back to mommy,
Speaker 2: like look at this loser, something like just belittling, you know,
Speaker 2: and like inside in the crowd because.
Speaker 3: Sander just sits there and take it. You can't sit
Speaker 3: there and take it, man, can't.
Speaker 2: You can't let the wife stand in front of you
Speaker 2: something like that. He's just so awkward when he stands.
Speaker 2: It's kind of like when Patrick bet David trying to
Speaker 2: give him those shoes and was asking him at his
Speaker 2: foot size, so he got play. You got to turn
Speaker 2: this into a game otherwise. I mean, it's just it's
Speaker 2: deeply emasculating. And look, I mean you could say that
Speaker 2: all the stuff shouldn't matter, and that the you know,
Speaker 2: the policy and all that shit. I wish that were
Speaker 2: the case, but it's not. Like, let's be real, like,
Speaker 2: this part of politics is that people do not find
Speaker 2: him relatable. They find him to be an incredibly awkward person,
Speaker 2: and that's a that's a big problem, and that was
Speaker 2: a lot of that was on display right there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, this is not the first time that
Speaker 1: it has occurred to me that he would have been
Speaker 1: better off if Casey ran rather than him. His wife
Speaker 1: has way more She's way more comfortable in front of
Speaker 1: a crowd, way quicker on her feet in terms of
Speaker 1: answering questions, delivering a speech, all of those things. But
Speaker 1: you know, it's it's a sign, this little embarrassing troll moment,
Speaker 1: which was spread far and wide, by the way, speaking
Speaker 1: of social media and what things actually matter on the
Speaker 1: campaign trail, it's just emblematic of how far he has
Speaker 1: fallen since he initially launched his campaign and coming off
Speaker 1: of the midterms looking like he was the guy. You know,
Speaker 1: all this media love, lots of sort of soft Len's
Speaker 1: features on him and conservative amount lets Fox News throwing
Speaker 1: all the way in with him, to now where he
Speaker 1: is scrapping and hoping that he can beat Nikki Haley
Speaker 1: right on caucus nights. I mean, this is just so
Speaker 1: far beyond what he thought where he thought he would
Speaker 1: be coming into tonight.
Speaker 3: Yeah. No, you're absolutely right, Crystal.
Speaker 2: And this is also the problem with DeSantis's entire strategy,
Speaker 2: trying to recreate the Ted Cruz moments and all that.
Speaker 2: And we can actually see here whenever we looked through
Speaker 2: how Trump is going about this, he no longer is
Speaker 2: even taking DeSantis all that seriously. He instead has been
Speaker 2: returning all of his fire and pointing it all of
Speaker 2: it on Nicki Haley. And actually, what we've now seen
Speaker 2: is that, given the polling that came out in De
Speaker 2: moin register, the Trump campaign's actually been running ads against
Speaker 2: Nicki Haley on MSNBC and specifically targeting her for her
Speaker 2: comments on trying to cut social Security. Just to show
Speaker 2: you how the dynamics of the race here are changing.
Speaker 2: Let's take a listen to what the Trump campaign has
Speaker 2: been saying Americans.
Speaker 3: We're promised to secure retirement NICKI. Haley's plan ends that
Speaker 3: social security medicare. How would you manage the entitlements?
Speaker 1: We say, the rules have changed, we change retirement age
Speaker 1: to reflect life expectancy. What we do know is sixty
Speaker 1: five is way too low and we need to increase
Speaker 1: that increase that.
Speaker 6: Bailey's plan cut social security benefits for eighty two percent
Speaker 6: of Americans.
Speaker 3: Trump will never let that happen. I'm Donald J. Trump,
Speaker 3: and I approved this message. Donald J. Trump, and I
Speaker 3: approved this message.
Speaker 2: Interesting to attacking her that way and also doing it
Speaker 2: on MSNBC. Smart move because so much of her support
Speaker 2: does come from Democrats.
Speaker 3: Go ahead, it is, and it isn't.
Speaker 1: I mean this Obviously, social security isn't issue that a
Speaker 1: lot of people are very passionate about. I think any
Speaker 1: ad that ends with I'm Donald Trump and I approve
Speaker 1: this message on MSNBC is probably not going to gain a.
Speaker 4: Lot of traction.
Speaker 1: They would have been better off if it had been
Speaker 1: a connected super pack that didn't have to say I'm
Speaker 1: Donald Trump and I approved this message at the end,
Speaker 1: and I also think that they would have been better
Speaker 1: off with a message about Nicki Haley, of how she
Speaker 1: loved Donald Trump right up until it was no longer
Speaker 1: convenient for her, Because you if there are Democrats who
Speaker 1: show up to vote in the Republican Caucus tonight, it's
Speaker 1: not going to be because they love Nicki Haley or
Speaker 1: they support her position on Social Security or whatever. It's
Speaker 1: going to be a vote against Trump. That is the
Speaker 1: animating force among these liberals. So I think a much
Speaker 1: more effective message for them to put out there would
Speaker 1: be this woman is basically a wolf in shape's clothing.
Speaker 1: She does whatever's politically convenient. Sure, she claims she's opponent
Speaker 1: to Trump now, but when it was convenient for her politically,
Speaker 1: she was singing his praises, she was doing his bidding.
Speaker 1: And personally, I think that is probably a message that
Speaker 1: would land more effectively with anti Trump independence and anti
Speaker 1: Trump Democrats. Partly, I'm saying this because of the brilliance
Speaker 1: of my own mother, who shares basically these views, because
Speaker 1: I asked her yesterday, just very neutrally, like if it
Speaker 1: was Nicki or Biden, you know who would you be
Speaker 1: a mom's been kind of like an independent voter for
Speaker 1: a long time, so she's my barometer a.
Speaker 4: Lot of ways.
Speaker 1: And that was exactly what she said, as like, this
Speaker 1: woman just does whatever's politically convenient. She loved Donald Trump
Speaker 1: right up until right up until now. I guess she's
Speaker 1: an opponent of him, but I don't trust her whatsoever.
Speaker 1: I think that probably would land better, but who knows
Speaker 1: how this will all shake out.
Speaker 2: The question here is how this is going, what's going
Speaker 2: to happen? Because if Desantist gets number two, then we
Speaker 2: can guarantee that the Trump fire is going to return
Speaker 2: right back to Ron DeSantis in going into New Hampshire.
Speaker 3: Some of it will also depend.
Speaker 2: The thing is, though, is that we're all seeing this
Speaker 2: like lack of enthusiasm amongst Nicki voters. Is that her
Speaker 2: quote unquote surge in New Hampshire, who the bottom could
Speaker 2: fall out too if she comes in third. That's why
Speaker 2: she actually argued was more at stake tonight than everybody else,
Speaker 2: and things right now in New Hampshire are not bad
Speaker 2: for her.
Speaker 3: Let's go and put this up there on the screen.
Speaker 2: We've got the real clear politics polling average as you
Speaker 2: guys can see Trump is at forty three point five percent,
Speaker 2: he would love to be at fifty, but Nikki Haley's
Speaker 2: at twenty nine point three. And this previously is when
Speaker 2: Chris Christy was there with eleven point three percent, DeSantis's
Speaker 2: sixty five, and Vivek at five. You can assume that
Speaker 2: a large portion of that Christie vote would go to
Speaker 2: Nicki Haley, which.
Speaker 3: Would make her virtually tied.
Speaker 2: So that means if she does come in third tonight,
Speaker 2: I do expect to see a lot of that support
Speaker 2: just drop out, and the narrative will generally just be like, look,
Speaker 2: she was overhyped, she didn't have the ability at the
Speaker 2: same time she had second you could actually see that
Speaker 2: number go up and conceivably she could actually win the
Speaker 2: New Hampshire primary. I mean unlikely, but still possible, you know,
Speaker 2: very much in this realm. So I actually think she's
Speaker 2: got so much at stake here. The thing is too
Speaker 2: for Santis, though, is it? Because he's so low right
Speaker 2: now in New Hampshire. It's clear he's got Iowa first
Speaker 2: in terms of his campaign. Definitely, if he does come
Speaker 2: in second, you know he will have to work incredibly
Speaker 2: hard to boost those New Hampshire numbers, and I'm not
Speaker 2: so sure that's as realistic.
Speaker 4: Actually, both Ron and Nicki have big problems, yeah, they do.
Speaker 1: For Nicki, the biggest problem, I mean, aside from the
Speaker 1: fact that she's losing to Donald Trump by double digits
Speaker 1: still in Iowa and every other state by New Hampshire.
Speaker 1: But putting that aside, let's imagine the best case scenario
Speaker 1: for Nicki. Right, she outperforms in iowhich she clinches that
Speaker 1: second place and narrows the gap and keeps Trump under
Speaker 1: fifty percent. She goes to New Hampshire and actually wins
Speaker 1: in New Hampshire and go the media is loving her
Speaker 1: and they're pushing her, and maybe she's really got.
Speaker 4: A chance to defeat Trump.
Speaker 1: She has the same problem Elizabeth Warren, Kamala, Harris Pete Boodhagee.
Speaker 1: Pete is probably actually the best example going into the
Speaker 1: rest of the states. Her support is almost entirely college educated,
Speaker 1: like suburban white college educated voters. Now that's okay in
Speaker 1: New Hampshire, it's really not okay basically anywhere else. So
Speaker 1: if she doesn't show an ability to grow beyond that
Speaker 1: college educated suburban base that has an affinity for her,
Speaker 1: there's just a hard ceiling on the amount of support
Speaker 1: she's ever gonna get. So without any demonstrated ability to
Speaker 1: really cut into Trump's working class base, it's like hard
Speaker 1: to see how this really.
Speaker 4: Works out now.
Speaker 1: Ron DeSantis, on the other hand, has a similar college
Speaker 1: educated problem, but not as severe as Nicky Hill. He's
Speaker 1: demonstrated a little bit more of an ability to appeal
Speaker 1: to some working class voters. But if Ron doesn't really
Speaker 1: outperform in Iowa, he's completely dead in the water. I mean,
Speaker 1: his campaign is really hanging on by its fingernails at
Speaker 1: this point, so he is in a lot of ways
Speaker 1: more imminently threatened by the results tonight. I would not
Speaker 1: be surprised whatsoever if he doesn't pull off second place
Speaker 1: in the Iowa caucuses, which is massively in doubt at
Speaker 1: this point. I would not be surprised if he drops
Speaker 1: out of the race really really quickly, because he has
Speaker 1: really staked his whole potential political trajectory on the state
Speaker 1: of Iowa. And if he's getting third to Dickie Haley
Speaker 1: in Iowa, I don't know how you come back from him.
Speaker 2: He's got big questions, right, so he could stay in
Speaker 2: all the way to Florida, and he could bank it
Speaker 2: all on his own home state and hope that he
Speaker 2: beats Trump.
Speaker 3: There's not currently a single poll that shows him beating
Speaker 3: Trump in Florida.
Speaker 2: Just to be right the other case, you know, but look, listen,
Speaker 2: what if Nicky Haley fails in South Carolina? She has
Speaker 2: to drop out because if you don't win your home
Speaker 2: home state in general, you're not supposed to stay in
Speaker 2: the race. Then it becomes like a two man thing,
Speaker 2: and he becomes stronger, and then there's some fantasy narrative.
Speaker 3: I can make up a whole lot of things.
Speaker 2: I've heard a lot of hope, you know, in politics
Speaker 2: now over these years. Let's put this up there on
Speaker 2: the screen just to show you kind of where the
Speaker 2: problems really arise for him. From the Wall Street Journal,
Speaker 2: it demonstrates that his quote big bet on Iowa risks
Speaker 2: not paying off the slipping into third place from all
Speaker 2: of the tens of millions of dollars at him and
Speaker 2: then never back down people, which is a super pack.
Speaker 2: I spent in the state trying to recreate the cruise victory.
Speaker 2: We're not seeing the magic kind of play out in
Speaker 2: the same way. And the thing is is that we
Speaker 2: even saw Krystal, the same person Jeff Rowe who ran
Speaker 2: the Ted Cruz campaign and kind of pulled off that
Speaker 2: Iowa win running his super pack. They ended up resigning
Speaker 2: from the super pac. There was all this controversy. You know,
Speaker 2: Ron Destaniels was attacking his own superpack. It was a
Speaker 2: total mess. To your point of whether he's going to
Speaker 2: drop out or not, he spoke to Jake Tapper on
Speaker 2: CNN yesterday.
Speaker 3: He says he's not going to Let's take a listen
Speaker 3: to what he said. What happens if you finished third?
Speaker 3: Is that the end of your campaign?
Speaker 10: Well, happy fifteenth anniversary, Thanks for giving me on We're
Speaker 10: gonna do well on Monday. Our voters are very motivated.
Speaker 10: This is I think it's very hard to pull at
Speaker 10: Iowa caucus a period which the sixteenth poll was not
Speaker 10: accurate predicted, but especially when in negative twenty degrees. And
Speaker 10: so these are folks who are very motivated. Our voters
Speaker 10: are very motivated. We have spent a lot of time
Speaker 10: in Iowa because we've gone door to door getting people
Speaker 10: to commit to caucus. To us, We've got a huge
Speaker 10: number of people that have committed to Caucus, and we
Speaker 10: expect that these are the people that turn out. So
Speaker 10: there's a lot of excitement on the ground.
Speaker 3: So there you go, Crystal.
Speaker 2: Let's see what actually happens with Ron, whether he'll drop
Speaker 2: out or anything.
Speaker 3: I do think the big problem for.
Speaker 2: Him is not even going to be voters or whether
Speaker 2: he wants what if the donors are like, look, dude,
Speaker 2: it's over, You're done, Like you're done. Yeah, we're pulling
Speaker 2: the plug on something like this. He doesn't have the
Speaker 2: same level of grassroots energy.
Speaker 3: That's that again.
Speaker 2: I do want to say if he does come in second,
Speaker 2: it's not a bad world for him. You know, I
Speaker 2: think that buys him. I think the bis him at
Speaker 2: least until Florida. If he comes in second, you know,
Speaker 2: New Hampshire, he was never going to do particularly well.
Speaker 2: See what happens in South Carolina. You can always say
Speaker 2: let's go to my home state, just like Marco Rubio
Speaker 2: did back in twenty sixteen.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Maybe, I mean, I guess at this point, even though
Speaker 1: I just lay down the case against NICKI originally I
Speaker 1: think is very compelling. I do think she has a
Speaker 1: real like wine track problem. I also do think that
Speaker 1: she is almost crystallizing in the Republican base's mind as
Speaker 1: a kin to like a Chris CHRISTI like hard anti
Speaker 1: Trump gear. Even though she's been much more careful in
Speaker 1: her criticism of Trump, but they still have put her
Speaker 1: on that side of the divide, which is causing her
Speaker 1: negatives to really spike, etc. But I like to play
Speaker 1: devil's advocate here. I like to lay out the case.
Speaker 1: Is it theoretically possible that we could end up with
Speaker 1: Nikki Haley beating Donald Trump for the Republican nomination.
Speaker 4: Here's how it would have to go.
Speaker 1: She outperforms tonight in Iowa, she gets second place, she
Speaker 1: narrows the gap, Trump stays under fifty percent. She goes
Speaker 1: in New Hampshire with the head esteem and she comes
Speaker 1: from behind, and she actually beats him in New Hampshire.
Speaker 1: And guess what state is up next? Her home state
Speaker 1: of South Carolina, where, yes, the polls have her down
Speaker 1: significantly to.
Speaker 4: Donald Trump right now.
Speaker 1: But if there was any state where you could see
Speaker 1: her coming from behind and being able to make some
Speaker 1: inroads even with Trump's working class base, you would think
Speaker 1: it would be her home state of South Carolina. You know,
Speaker 1: the media liberal media, Fox News, whatever, They're going to
Speaker 1: be going crazy for her. She's able to pull off
Speaker 1: this series of upset wins and then who knows anything
Speaker 1: could happen at that point. That would be the case,
Speaker 1: that the best possible case I could.
Speaker 4: Make for her.
Speaker 1: But I do think that there are you have to
Speaker 1: ignore a lot of realities to imagine that that is
Speaker 1: going to be how things actually play out with Ron.
Speaker 1: I just have a hard time even being able to
Speaker 1: come up with a theoretical scenario where he's able to
Speaker 1: come from behind and pull this thing off, because he
Speaker 1: unlike Nicki. You know, Nicky's got a real shot at
Speaker 1: winning in New Hampshire. Ron doesn't have a real shot
Speaker 1: at winning in Iowa. There is no state where you
Speaker 1: can see a path of like, oh, he could actually
Speaker 1: win that state. So if you can't even see a
Speaker 1: single state where you're likely to beat Donald Trump, it's
Speaker 1: hard to imagine a trajectory that's going to put you
Speaker 1: over top of him.
Speaker 4: You know, at the end of the day.
Speaker 3: I don't disagree.
Speaker 2: The other problem Nikki has, I think, just to add
Speaker 2: to this is what do we just talk about with
Speaker 2: Desanta's donors are fickle as hell, you know, they abandon DeSantis.
Speaker 3: What if NICKI comes in.
Speaker 2: Third and they pull the plug before New Hampshire, I
Speaker 2: could see, I'm sure you could as well, where they're like, okay,
Speaker 2: our dream is gone. And then they, I don't know,
Speaker 2: they all start funding Dean Phillips' campaign, like you know,
Speaker 2: I mean, Billland just gave him a million dollars.
Speaker 3: So he gave him more money than he's ever getting
Speaker 3: to anybody else.
Speaker 2: You know, our producers just sent us this bill Bill
Speaker 2: Ackman and Elon are doing a Twitter spaces today. Elon
Speaker 2: did one with for Dean Phillips with Dean Phillips, So
Speaker 2: I mean, maybe Dean becomes like the guy of the day.
Speaker 3: It's I don't know, Crazier things have happened.
Speaker 2: But that's the problem is if you're if you're playing
Speaker 2: the billionaire race like Nikki and like Dean, and like
Speaker 2: a lot of these other I don't want to be
Speaker 2: as mean to Dean. I actually have a soft spot
Speaker 2: for Dan, just because I have a stoft spot for
Speaker 2: democracy and challenging Biden. I have a soft spot for,
Speaker 2: you know, anybody who's like trying to play in this race.
Speaker 2: But I do know that when you're relying on them,
Speaker 2: that's a problem. And that's where I could see for
Speaker 2: Nicki Haley, they could rug pull her instantly if she
Speaker 2: doesn't do nearly as well, and then you know, the
Speaker 2: bottom could fall out like that. It's not that long really,
Speaker 2: it's only two weeks till the New Hampshire Boy.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this this thing could be over very it could
Speaker 1: be tonight very quickly. Last thing I'll say just as
Speaker 1: a reminder, so I'm gonna be watching the results tonight.
Speaker 1: Once we have some sense of where the race is going,
Speaker 1: we'll go ahead and give you an update and our
Speaker 1: analysis of what is unfolding, So stay tuned to that,
Speaker 1: and we'll have Ryan and Emily in study. Will do
Speaker 1: a full panel breakdown tomorrow in the show, so lots
Speaker 1: to look forward to there