1
00:00:00,760 --> 00:00:03,680
Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,

2
00:00:03,840 --> 00:00:06,320
Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

3
00:00:06,360 --> 00:00:08,560
Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

4
00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:11,719
Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

5
00:00:11,720 --> 00:00:15,720
Speaker 2: the studio ad staff give you, guys, the best independent.

6
00:00:15,120 --> 00:00:16,239
Speaker 3: Coverage that is possible.

7
00:00:16,280 --> 00:00:18,279
Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means

8
00:00:18,320 --> 00:00:20,799
Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that,

9
00:00:21,000 --> 00:00:30,600
Speaker 2: let's get to the show. Today is the Iowa Caucuses.

10
00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:33,760
Speaker 2: People will begin voting later on tonight in their bizarre

11
00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:35,519
Speaker 2: byzantine some would say system.

12
00:00:36,080 --> 00:00:38,840
Speaker 3: But before we get to that, we should actually go over.

13
00:00:38,960 --> 00:00:42,639
Speaker 2: As Crystal mentioned, the final Des Moines Register polls considered

14
00:00:42,720 --> 00:00:45,800
Speaker 2: one of the gold standard polls in the state. Let's

15
00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:47,919
Speaker 2: go and put it up there on the screen so

16
00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:51,240
Speaker 2: everyone can see. We've got Donald Trump forty eight percent,

17
00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:55,680
Speaker 2: Nikki Haley at twenty percent, Governor Ron desandis at sixteen percent,

18
00:00:55,920 --> 00:01:00,320
Speaker 2: Vivik Ramaswami and eight percent, Asa Hutchinson a waffing and

19
00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:02,640
Speaker 2: there and Ryan Bigley. I actually don't know who Ryan is,

20
00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:05,240
Speaker 2: but uh okay.

21
00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:05,880
Speaker 3: Ryan whatever, there's always one.

22
00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:09,000
Speaker 2: There's a guy who always comes, you know, somehow He's

23
00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:12,640
Speaker 2: what we find here is that Trump overwhelmingly winning with

24
00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:15,800
Speaker 2: twenty eight percent margin. The big question, and we will

25
00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:18,640
Speaker 2: reveal what we think actually about this is the Trump

26
00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:19,560
Speaker 2: support soft?

27
00:01:19,720 --> 00:01:20,679
Speaker 3: Is it overstated?

28
00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:23,200
Speaker 2: And we were comparing a little bit to results from

29
00:01:23,240 --> 00:01:24,640
Speaker 2: twenty and sixteen.

30
00:01:24,720 --> 00:01:25,920
Speaker 3: I have it in front of me here.

31
00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:29,679
Speaker 2: In twenty and sixteen, the Iowa Des Moines Register poll

32
00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:33,440
Speaker 2: actually had Trump at twenty eight percent and Ted Cruz

33
00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:36,960
Speaker 2: at twenty three percent. The final results actually had Ted

34
00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:40,000
Speaker 2: Cruz winning the Iowa caucuses with twenty seven point six

35
00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:43,400
Speaker 2: percent and Trump at twenty four point three. As you

36
00:01:43,440 --> 00:01:46,360
Speaker 2: can see right there from the twenty sixteen results Marco

37
00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:49,480
Speaker 2: Rubio coming in at twenty three percent. So the question, Crystal,

38
00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:51,920
Speaker 2: is uh, is that going to happen again this time?

39
00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:54,200
Speaker 3: Is Trump's support going to be understated?

40
00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:58,600
Speaker 2: I personally think though, because the dynamics are so different

41
00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:02,200
Speaker 2: this time around. Ted Cruise, if people remember, had a

42
00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:06,040
Speaker 2: tremendous operation in Iowa. It also was at a time

43
00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:09,680
Speaker 2: of much more uncertainty. That was the very first vote

44
00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:13,400
Speaker 2: ever cast in official proceeding for Donald Trump. The juggernaut

45
00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:16,520
Speaker 2: that he was politically did not yet quite exist, and

46
00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:20,440
Speaker 2: there was a different evangelical turnout. He hadn't been president yet,

47
00:02:20,480 --> 00:02:23,320
Speaker 2: his favorability numbers were not necessarily where.

48
00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:24,280
Speaker 3: They are right now.

49
00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:26,760
Speaker 2: And then the problem also in my opinion, Crystal, is

50
00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:30,400
Speaker 2: that Ted Cruz was a far more formidable candidate than

51
00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:33,320
Speaker 2: both Nicki Haley and Ron DeSantis kind of in their

52
00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:36,639
Speaker 2: own way. Desanta's has tried to mimic the twenty sixteen playbook,

53
00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:39,200
Speaker 2: But Nicki Haley is not running, you know, for the

54
00:02:39,280 --> 00:02:42,440
Speaker 2: same conservative voters. She's actually winning a decent amount of

55
00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:45,239
Speaker 2: Democratic voters. Fine, if you're running in a general election,

56
00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:48,080
Speaker 2: but not when you're running an overall Republican prime.

57
00:02:48,080 --> 00:02:50,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, and let me explain that piece a little bit

58
00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:54,960
Speaker 1: so people can understand. So traditionally, Democrats and Republicans both

59
00:02:55,040 --> 00:02:58,920
Speaker 1: have Iowa as their first voting contests, their first caucus

60
00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:01,959
Speaker 1: on the map of like famous political.

61
00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:02,240
Speaker 4: History, et cetera.

62
00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:05,120
Speaker 1: Because Joe Biden the DNC wanted to make sure to

63
00:03:05,160 --> 00:03:07,680
Speaker 1: break the primary on his behalf and also because Iowa,

64
00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:10,200
Speaker 1: let's be honest, last time around for the Democrats, utter

65
00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:13,960
Speaker 1: and complete debucle So New Hampshire sort of put up

66
00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:16,720
Speaker 1: a fight about getting bumped back in the lineup. They're

67
00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:19,240
Speaker 1: still going ahead. They're being penalized by the DNC. We'll

68
00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:20,680
Speaker 1: talk about that, you know, more as we get to

69
00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:24,200
Speaker 1: New Hampshire. But Iowa, I think because they had such

70
00:03:24,200 --> 00:03:27,200
Speaker 1: an embarrassing situation unfold last time, just kind of hung

71
00:03:27,240 --> 00:03:28,880
Speaker 1: their heads in shame, we're like, all right, fine, we'll

72
00:03:28,919 --> 00:03:30,800
Speaker 1: go to the back of the line. So there is

73
00:03:30,800 --> 00:03:34,800
Speaker 1: no Democratic voting tonight. What that means is that theoretically

74
00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:38,280
Speaker 1: Democrats who want to vote in the Republican caucus and

75
00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:39,840
Speaker 1: try to sew a little bit of chaos or try

76
00:03:39,880 --> 00:03:42,680
Speaker 1: to register their disapproval of Donald Trump, they can actually

77
00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:46,000
Speaker 1: register as a Republican at the caucas site itself and

78
00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:49,000
Speaker 1: go ahead and vote in Republican primary. Polls show, and

79
00:03:49,040 --> 00:03:50,360
Speaker 1: I think we have the numbers we could put up

80
00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:53,200
Speaker 1: in a minute, poll show a significant number of Democrats

81
00:03:53,240 --> 00:03:55,520
Speaker 1: are actually planning to back Nikki Haley and say that

82
00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:57,080
Speaker 1: if she doesn't win, they're going to vote for Joe

83
00:03:57,080 --> 00:03:58,120
Speaker 1: Biden in the general election.

84
00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:00,040
Speaker 4: Now, I am a little.

85
00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:02,360
Speaker 1: Bit skeptical because I always see these narratives come up

86
00:04:02,440 --> 00:04:04,520
Speaker 1: when it's election time of like, oh, the Republicans are

87
00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:06,280
Speaker 1: going to cross over and they're going to cause chaos

88
00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:08,160
Speaker 1: and the democratic vote or the Democrats are going to

89
00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:10,080
Speaker 1: cross over and they're going to cause chaos, et cetera,

90
00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:13,480
Speaker 1: et cetera. I've never seen it happen in such large

91
00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:16,000
Speaker 1: numbers that it really makes a significant difference.

92
00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:16,680
Speaker 4: That's right now.

93
00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:19,200
Speaker 1: Independence are another story, and this is why Nikki Haley's

94
00:04:19,240 --> 00:04:22,719
Speaker 1: doing well in New Hampshire because you have a large

95
00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:26,080
Speaker 1: group of independents who historically do vote in the New

96
00:04:26,080 --> 00:04:29,240
Speaker 1: Hampshire primary. And so those independence if they're looking to,

97
00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:32,120
Speaker 1: you know, be able to participate in democracy, their only

98
00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:34,800
Speaker 1: opportunity to do so is in the Republican caucus. So

99
00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:37,840
Speaker 1: I could see a significant number of independence showing up

100
00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:41,640
Speaker 1: to caucus with the Republicans tonight. So that's kind of

101
00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:44,320
Speaker 1: the story of Nikki Haley's support, especially with Chris Christy

102
00:04:44,400 --> 00:04:48,159
Speaker 1: dropping out. She is really consolidating that quote unquote hard

103
00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:51,960
Speaker 1: like anti Trump vote, and based on the numbers the majority,

104
00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:53,479
Speaker 1: this won't surprise you. I mean, it's a very like

105
00:04:53,520 --> 00:04:56,440
Speaker 1: wind track, beer track kind of situation. Her support is

106
00:04:56,560 --> 00:05:01,640
Speaker 1: overwhelmingly white, college educated, urban and so as you're looking

107
00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:04,120
Speaker 1: at the map tonight and as things are unfolding, those

108
00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:05,960
Speaker 1: are the places where if she's going to have a

109
00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:08,680
Speaker 1: big night. They should be coming in really strong for her,

110
00:05:08,760 --> 00:05:11,599
Speaker 1: and if she's not doing well there, then she's not

111
00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:12,760
Speaker 1: really going to do well anywhere.

112
00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:13,920
Speaker 3: That's another good reason.

113
00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:16,880
Speaker 2: Whenever you're watching the returns, you know, usually these urban

114
00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:19,200
Speaker 2: centers are the ones who can report more quickly, and

115
00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:21,160
Speaker 2: they're also the easiest ones for reporters and all that

116
00:05:21,200 --> 00:05:22,919
Speaker 2: to get to. So in some cases you can actually

117
00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:26,839
Speaker 2: see overstated support for the urban backed candidates, the suburban people,

118
00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:28,679
Speaker 2: people who would like to support Nicki Haley.

119
00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:30,479
Speaker 3: For example, let's put this up there on the screen.

120
00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:33,679
Speaker 2: As Crystal alluded to from NBC News, they asked the question,

121
00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:36,320
Speaker 2: if Donald Trump is the Republican nominee in the general election,

122
00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:38,720
Speaker 2: would you vote for him, vote for Joe Biden, vote

123
00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:41,800
Speaker 2: for RFK Junior, or vote for somebody else. Forty three

124
00:05:41,839 --> 00:05:44,320
Speaker 2: percent of Nikki Haley supporters say that they would vote

125
00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:46,920
Speaker 2: for Joe Biden, far more I mean near more than

126
00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:49,280
Speaker 2: almost double of the twenty three percent who say that

127
00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:51,440
Speaker 2: they would vote for Trump, eight percent say that they

128
00:05:51,440 --> 00:05:54,160
Speaker 2: would vote for Bobby Kennedy, and then nineteen percent say

129
00:05:54,200 --> 00:05:56,680
Speaker 2: they would either vote for another third party or they

130
00:05:56,760 --> 00:05:57,440
Speaker 2: are not sure.

131
00:05:57,480 --> 00:05:58,880
Speaker 3: So it's pretty substantial.

132
00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:01,719
Speaker 2: The vast I guess the plurality of those Nicki Haley

133
00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:04,640
Speaker 2: voters who will vote tonight in the Des Moines or

134
00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:07,360
Speaker 2: at least who are slated to vote tonight in the

135
00:06:07,360 --> 00:06:11,200
Speaker 2: Iowa caucuses according to the Des Moines registered poll are Democrats,

136
00:06:11,240 --> 00:06:14,520
Speaker 2: and so that pretty significant crossover.

137
00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:15,840
Speaker 4: You don't want to see those numbers.

138
00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:17,920
Speaker 2: You don't want to see those numbers in a freaking

139
00:06:18,080 --> 00:06:21,200
Speaker 2: Republican primary. Again, you know, that's something that you may

140
00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:23,600
Speaker 2: want to see in a general election, but you had

141
00:06:23,640 --> 00:06:25,440
Speaker 2: to get to the election first, and I think that's

142
00:06:25,480 --> 00:06:28,240
Speaker 2: the major problem that they have right now. So as

143
00:06:28,279 --> 00:06:31,280
Speaker 2: we mentioned too, in terms of the overall polling average,

144
00:06:31,279 --> 00:06:34,320
Speaker 2: this can sometimes be even more significant. Let's go and

145
00:06:34,320 --> 00:06:36,840
Speaker 2: put this up there please on the screen. So this

146
00:06:36,880 --> 00:06:39,640
Speaker 2: is what we have for the RCP average, the average

147
00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:42,320
Speaker 2: of all of the polls going into this over the

148
00:06:42,400 --> 00:06:46,279
Speaker 2: last five to ten days. Fifty two percent for Donald Trump,

149
00:06:46,520 --> 00:06:49,640
Speaker 2: eighteen percent for Nicki Haley, fifteen point five percent for

150
00:06:49,760 --> 00:06:52,839
Speaker 2: Ron DeSantis, six point five for Vivek Ramaswami, and three

151
00:06:52,839 --> 00:06:55,359
Speaker 2: point five for Chris Christie. Chris Christy obviously no longer

152
00:06:55,400 --> 00:06:58,160
Speaker 2: in the RASO. You can kind of distribute that probably

153
00:06:58,200 --> 00:07:00,560
Speaker 2: the majority of that to NICKI Haley, which does line

154
00:07:00,640 --> 00:07:03,400
Speaker 2: up crystal with the numbers that we saw in the

155
00:07:03,440 --> 00:07:07,040
Speaker 2: final Des Moines Register poll. But then the big question

156
00:07:07,160 --> 00:07:09,279
Speaker 2: hanging over all of this is the same one blanketing

157
00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:10,160
Speaker 2: Washington today.

158
00:07:10,440 --> 00:07:13,120
Speaker 3: What about the damn weather? The weather in Iowa is

159
00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:14,680
Speaker 3: completely insane.

160
00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:17,720
Speaker 2: We have a local news clip here just to lay

161
00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:21,600
Speaker 2: out how this is the coldest caucus literally on record,

162
00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:25,280
Speaker 2: with minus thirty or so temperatures expected with wind chill.

163
00:07:25,440 --> 00:07:26,280
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen.

164
00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:30,120
Speaker 5: The high temperature Monday will be just below zero, far

165
00:07:30,240 --> 00:07:33,239
Speaker 5: colder than the coldest caucus on record that was sixteen

166
00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:35,760
Speaker 5: degrees in two thousand and four. Now the wind chill

167
00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:38,240
Speaker 5: Monday will be, as we mentioned, twenty to thirty degrees

168
00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:41,720
Speaker 5: blow zero, again, much colder than minus twenty one degrees

169
00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:44,320
Speaker 5: that was back way back in nineteen seventy two. So

170
00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:48,280
Speaker 5: what does it mean? CASEYCIA political analyst Dennis Goldford says

171
00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:52,520
Speaker 5: the weather likely will affect the Iowa caucus results. Fewer

172
00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:55,080
Speaker 5: people may turn out to vote for their favorite candidate,

173
00:07:55,400 --> 00:07:59,520
Speaker 5: and all those pole results and the outcomes certainly could change.

174
00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:03,440
Speaker 6: Concern for the various candidates Aside from not being able

175
00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:07,120
Speaker 6: to get to schedule venues, is that their supporters just

176
00:08:07,280 --> 00:08:10,200
Speaker 6: may not be able to get to their caucus sites,

177
00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:13,640
Speaker 6: or they may decide it's a done deal or it's

178
00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:15,000
Speaker 6: just not worth it to them.

179
00:08:15,200 --> 00:08:16,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, it would have to be worth a lot for me,

180
00:08:16,840 --> 00:08:18,960
Speaker 2: Crystal to be able to go out there. So currently,

181
00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:21,120
Speaker 2: as you and I are speaking, it is minus eleven

182
00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:23,239
Speaker 2: degrees fahrenheit and des Moines, Iowa.

183
00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:26,960
Speaker 7: Is that the field at the temperature the according to

184
00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:30,200
Speaker 7: the National Weather Service, that feels like is wind chills

185
00:08:30,320 --> 00:08:34,199
Speaker 7: below as low as thirty five below zero.

186
00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:37,440
Speaker 2: So the lowest I've ever personal experience is minus twenty

187
00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:40,280
Speaker 2: and that's when you're not actually freezes to your face.

188
00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:45,160
Speaker 1: So yeah, just to make it real for me in Minneapolis, Yeah, exactly,

189
00:08:45,200 --> 00:08:47,720
Speaker 1: go outside. It like punches you in the face that

190
00:08:47,840 --> 00:08:50,160
Speaker 1: level of gold. There's a couple of ways to look

191
00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:52,240
Speaker 1: at this in terms of like, first of all, does

192
00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:53,200
Speaker 1: make a difference at all?

193
00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:53,800
Speaker 4: Right?

194
00:08:53,920 --> 00:08:57,319
Speaker 1: Does it just decrease voter turnout overall? But in similar

195
00:08:57,360 --> 00:09:00,760
Speaker 1: percentages across the boar is very possible. One way to

196
00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:03,160
Speaker 1: spin it, if you're a nicky Haley or Ronda Santis

197
00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:06,560
Speaker 1: person is like, oh well, Trump support is strongest in

198
00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:09,640
Speaker 1: the more rural areas, where it's more difficult, the roads

199
00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:11,880
Speaker 1: will be less treated, you've got to travel further in

200
00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:14,880
Speaker 1: order to get to the caucus site, So perhaps it

201
00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:17,319
Speaker 1: has more of an impact on his support versus the

202
00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:20,920
Speaker 1: Nicky Haley support, which is in the more suburban urban areas.

203
00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:22,520
Speaker 1: And I think Ron de Santis is kind of like

204
00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:24,120
Speaker 1: evenly distributed across the state.

205
00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:26,160
Speaker 4: So that's one theory of the case.

206
00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:28,760
Speaker 1: The other theory of the case is that if you

207
00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:31,160
Speaker 1: dig into the numbers in that Des Moines Register poll,

208
00:09:31,640 --> 00:09:35,760
Speaker 1: Nicky Haley supporters like the support among her supporters is

209
00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:40,880
Speaker 1: extraordinarily weak. Yes, nine percent of people who say they're

210
00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:44,080
Speaker 1: gonna caucus for Nicky Haley say they're extremely enthusiastic, about

211
00:09:44,520 --> 00:09:48,920
Speaker 1: nine percent. The equivalent number for Donald Trump is forty

212
00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:53,520
Speaker 1: nine percent. For Ron DeSantis, it's twenty three percent of

213
00:09:53,559 --> 00:09:57,440
Speaker 1: his supporters say they are extremely enthusiastic. So you would

214
00:09:57,520 --> 00:10:01,480
Speaker 1: think that when it requires so much to be able

215
00:10:01,520 --> 00:10:04,320
Speaker 1: to go out in freaking minus thirty degree weather, in

216
00:10:04,360 --> 00:10:06,760
Speaker 1: the driving snow and with the iced over roads and

217
00:10:06,760 --> 00:10:10,359
Speaker 1: whatever to go caucus, that you better be extremely enthusiastic

218
00:10:10,400 --> 00:10:12,400
Speaker 1: to go out and do that, that would, you know,

219
00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:14,720
Speaker 1: augur more in the direction of Donald Trump.

220
00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:16,280
Speaker 4: So take that for what it's worth.

221
00:10:16,360 --> 00:10:19,000
Speaker 1: But again, I do think even though the top line

222
00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:21,280
Speaker 1: number for Nicki in this De Moines Register poll was

223
00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:23,520
Speaker 1: pretty good, especially the fact she jumps ahead of Ron

224
00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:28,480
Speaker 1: DeSantis and she really has staked her claim on New Hampshire.

225
00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:31,080
Speaker 1: That's really where she wants to put in a great showing.

226
00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:33,280
Speaker 1: So if she's able to pull off a strong second

227
00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:35,640
Speaker 1: in Iowa, that would be a very good finish for her.

228
00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:38,400
Speaker 1: But if you dig into these numbers and Seltzer, who

229
00:10:38,400 --> 00:10:41,280
Speaker 1: does this, pulse that it was jaw dropping the lack

230
00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:44,440
Speaker 1: of enthusiasm for Nikki Haley evidence by those polls. And

231
00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:46,080
Speaker 1: then you add to what we were saying before that

232
00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:49,040
Speaker 1: much of her support is like Democrats and independence, are

233
00:10:49,040 --> 00:10:52,080
Speaker 1: they really going to brave the conditions to go out

234
00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:53,600
Speaker 1: and vote in a Republican caucus.

235
00:10:53,640 --> 00:10:54,840
Speaker 4: I think that's a gigantic question.

236
00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:55,720
Speaker 3: Mark Yeah, she says.

237
00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:58,480
Speaker 2: Quote her enthusiasm numbers again, I think are on the

238
00:10:58,559 --> 00:11:01,160
Speaker 2: edge of job dropping. Sixty one percent are just mildly

239
00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:04,319
Speaker 2: enthusiastic or not enthusiastic. It just seems at odds with

240
00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:07,480
Speaker 2: a candidate moving up, she actually says according to her

241
00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:11,439
Speaker 2: own poll, her own poll vastly over states Nikki Haley's support.

242
00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:14,240
Speaker 2: And don't forget Chris. We have to explain like the

243
00:11:14,280 --> 00:11:18,160
Speaker 2: bizarre caucus system, the way that it actually works, where

244
00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:20,720
Speaker 2: there's a first round, but then there's also second round

245
00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:24,840
Speaker 2: before we get to the eventual vote total. So let's

246
00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:27,240
Speaker 2: say that she does have soft support number one, that's

247
00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:29,160
Speaker 2: going to be very difficult in terms of getting people

248
00:11:29,160 --> 00:11:31,680
Speaker 2: out to the actual polls. And then in the various

249
00:11:31,720 --> 00:11:35,400
Speaker 2: wizard precincts where she doesn't rise to the percentage that

250
00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:37,880
Speaker 2: she would need to in the first vote, then her

251
00:11:37,960 --> 00:11:40,360
Speaker 2: voters would then be able to scatter. But then the

252
00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:44,360
Speaker 2: question is if they don't support anybody other candidate than her,

253
00:11:44,520 --> 00:11:47,280
Speaker 2: are they going to leave the caucus? And this is

254
00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:50,920
Speaker 2: where the actual voting system gets just completely awry.

255
00:11:51,080 --> 00:11:52,560
Speaker 3: We saw this actually previously.

256
00:11:52,640 --> 00:11:54,280
Speaker 2: Part of why it was so difficult and the whole

257
00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:57,800
Speaker 2: software meltdown or whatever for the DNC. This was part

258
00:11:57,800 --> 00:12:00,320
Speaker 2: of what broke the actual software is that they weren't

259
00:12:00,360 --> 00:12:03,560
Speaker 2: able to account for the second count voting in this system.

260
00:12:03,679 --> 00:12:06,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, it was just total complete meltdown of the tech

261
00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:09,280
Speaker 1: that they were relying on previously, they'd used sort of

262
00:12:09,320 --> 00:12:12,320
Speaker 1: more just like by hand or atiquated methods that turned

263
00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:14,199
Speaker 1: out to be a lot more reliable than they paid

264
00:12:14,200 --> 00:12:17,360
Speaker 1: some you know, Rising Democratic consultants star to build this

265
00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:18,160
Speaker 1: crap who happened to.

266
00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:20,520
Speaker 4: Be affiliated with Pete boodhagine. But we'll just leave all

267
00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:21,560
Speaker 4: of that in the past.

268
00:12:21,920 --> 00:12:24,520
Speaker 1: I will never forget though, when we were covering that, Yeah,

269
00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:26,280
Speaker 1: at Rising, we were doing like a live stream.

270
00:12:26,559 --> 00:12:27,800
Speaker 4: We're waiting for the results.

271
00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:30,480
Speaker 1: Anytime the results are, the results are sure to start

272
00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:30,840
Speaker 1: coming in.

273
00:12:31,160 --> 00:12:32,800
Speaker 3: It kept coming in the year. They're like, it's coming now.

274
00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:34,880
Speaker 2: We're like okay, okay, And I remember being on Twitter

275
00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:37,120
Speaker 2: and be like I don't think so. And then what

276
00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:40,480
Speaker 2: we stretched it as long as we possibly could. And

277
00:12:40,520 --> 00:12:42,000
Speaker 2: then at a certain point, I think it must have

278
00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:43,760
Speaker 2: been like ten thirty or so, and we were like, okay,

279
00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:45,360
Speaker 2: I guess we're just going to go home.

280
00:12:45,679 --> 00:12:46,680
Speaker 3: I don't really know what's happening.

281
00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:49,160
Speaker 1: And the Pete came out and just like declared victory

282
00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:51,319
Speaker 1: based on nothing, and the video is like, okay, you won,

283
00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:53,720
Speaker 1: let's move on to new handser. It was crazy anyway,

284
00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:56,000
Speaker 1: That's why Democrats, you know that in the fact that

285
00:12:56,040 --> 00:12:57,520
Speaker 1: I think I also want to make sure to mention

286
00:12:58,320 --> 00:13:01,000
Speaker 1: Joe Biden and the DNC have just decided, like we're

287
00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:03,520
Speaker 1: not doing democracy, We're going to kill democracy to try

288
00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:06,080
Speaker 1: to save democracy. A bunch of states have just completely

289
00:13:06,120 --> 00:13:10,040
Speaker 1: canceled their primaries, even though Joe Biden has challengers, he

290
00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:12,600
Speaker 1: has Jan Huger and now there's questions constitutional about him,

291
00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:14,440
Speaker 1: but Lee can let the courts resolve whether he is

292
00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:17,560
Speaker 1: actually a legit presidential candidate or not. You've got Mary

293
00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:19,280
Speaker 1: and Williamson who's been running for quite a long time,

294
00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:21,600
Speaker 1: and you have a Congressman Dean Phillips who is running

295
00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:24,120
Speaker 1: against him as well. And rather than having the confidence

296
00:13:24,160 --> 00:13:26,280
Speaker 1: to say, Okay, we believe in our guy, we think

297
00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:29,480
Speaker 1: and the polls demonstrate that he's overwhelmingly the favorite, let's

298
00:13:29,520 --> 00:13:31,640
Speaker 1: have a contest and you know, let people go out

299
00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:33,920
Speaker 1: and register their choice. A number of these states have

300
00:13:34,040 --> 00:13:38,120
Speaker 1: just completely canceled their primaries. And in Iowa, as I said,

301
00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:40,680
Speaker 1: they were part of the shift in the lineup to

302
00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:42,839
Speaker 1: try to make sure to bolster Joe Biden because he

303
00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:45,000
Speaker 1: did poorly in Iowa last time. He did poorly in

304
00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:47,840
Speaker 1: New Hampshire, very poorly, in New Hampshire last time, so

305
00:13:47,920 --> 00:13:51,360
Speaker 1: they demoted them because they did not align with the

306
00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:56,000
Speaker 1: DNC's chosen candidate of Joe Biden, and Iowa's decided just

307
00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:58,160
Speaker 1: to go along with that. New Hampshire's putting up more

308
00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:00,280
Speaker 1: of a fight. Joe Biden will be only a write

309
00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:03,520
Speaker 1: in candidate in the state of New Hampshire. But you know,

310
00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:05,680
Speaker 1: that's why you have the Republicans going and not the

311
00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:09,120
Speaker 1: Democrats in terms of Iowa. So when I look at

312
00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:12,320
Speaker 1: all of this the weather, Niki Haley seems to be

313
00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:14,880
Speaker 1: surging at the right time, But then again, i was

314
00:14:14,880 --> 00:14:16,800
Speaker 1: not a great state for her, and you dig into

315
00:14:16,800 --> 00:14:18,600
Speaker 1: these polls and you're like, her people don't really care

316
00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:20,840
Speaker 1: about whether she wins or not, and they're like mostly

317
00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:25,520
Speaker 1: Democrats and Independents and whatever. I feel like In terms

318
00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:29,280
Speaker 1: of my prediction, I think Trump is going to more

319
00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:32,600
Speaker 1: or less hit the percentage point that he is getting

320
00:14:32,600 --> 00:14:35,880
Speaker 1: in this des moin registered pole right around fifty. Maybe

321
00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:37,920
Speaker 1: I'm going to say a little bit under fifty. I'm

322
00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:40,240
Speaker 1: gonna see he doesn't quite hit the fifty percentage point.

323
00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:44,080
Speaker 1: I think Ron is actually gonna be able to come

324
00:14:44,120 --> 00:14:46,240
Speaker 1: from behind and get the second place win from Nicki

325
00:14:46,360 --> 00:14:49,320
Speaker 1: and maybe get like eighteen to twenty percentage point. And

326
00:14:49,400 --> 00:14:53,000
Speaker 1: I think Nicki's support in this poll is a bit overstated.

327
00:14:53,040 --> 00:14:54,920
Speaker 1: That you can knock off like five points when the

328
00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:57,840
Speaker 1: des Moin registered poll, and that's roughly where Niky'll come in.

329
00:14:58,080 --> 00:14:59,720
Speaker 1: I think the vehicleill be a little bit stronger. I

330
00:14:59,720 --> 00:15:01,560
Speaker 1: think the one registaple had him at eight. I put

331
00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:03,760
Speaker 1: him at like ten. Yes, because he's done so much

332
00:15:03,800 --> 00:15:05,040
Speaker 1: and we'll put the map up on the screen a

333
00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:06,960
Speaker 1: little bit when we talk about more about him and Trump.

334
00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:09,480
Speaker 1: He has done so much work on the ground. I

335
00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:11,520
Speaker 1: just have to in my head believe that that counts

336
00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:14,520
Speaker 1: for something. That you know, his people because they met him,

337
00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:16,760
Speaker 1: because he was there, they feel some sort of commitment

338
00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:18,440
Speaker 1: to him to actually turn.

339
00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:20,200
Speaker 4: Up on a difficult caucus night.

340
00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:22,440
Speaker 1: So I put him more in the ten percentage points,

341
00:15:22,480 --> 00:15:24,600
Speaker 1: which is kind of why I'm thinking maybe Trump stays

342
00:15:24,640 --> 00:15:28,440
Speaker 1: under fifty percentage points because out of all of these candidates,

343
00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:31,840
Speaker 1: Vivek eats into Trump's margins the most because they're running

344
00:15:31,880 --> 00:15:33,400
Speaker 1: the most similar type of campaign.

345
00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:35,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, so my numbers are I agree with you.

346
00:15:35,680 --> 00:15:37,280
Speaker 2: I think Trump is roughly going to be where he

347
00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:39,440
Speaker 2: is he's going to be around forty eight fifty percent.

348
00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:40,960
Speaker 3: It's possible that he goes over it.

349
00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:43,160
Speaker 2: Actually, I would say it's more likely just because of

350
00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:44,520
Speaker 2: the whole second system.

351
00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:45,480
Speaker 3: I agree completely.

352
00:15:45,480 --> 00:15:48,720
Speaker 2: I think Nikki Haley's support is vastly overstated, So she's

353
00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:51,720
Speaker 2: going to come down probably to third percent. Ron will

354
00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:54,120
Speaker 2: come in in second, but likely where Haley currently is

355
00:15:54,160 --> 00:15:58,440
Speaker 2: around twenty. And I also believe that vivek Ramaswami, I

356
00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:00,800
Speaker 2: think he could go as high as fifteen percent. Possibly,

357
00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:03,360
Speaker 2: I think he may. It's possible he could even beat

358
00:16:03,560 --> 00:16:06,640
Speaker 2: Nikki Haley. This could be totally wrong. And actually this

359
00:16:06,680 --> 00:16:07,800
Speaker 2: is going to be a big task. We're going to

360
00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:10,080
Speaker 2: talk a lot about this in our avake section. Is

361
00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:12,480
Speaker 2: I still have to believe, as you do, that this

362
00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:15,480
Speaker 2: stuff matters. Handshaking matters, going to ninety four out of

363
00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:18,960
Speaker 2: the ninety nine counties in Iowa matters, spending millions of dollars,

364
00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:21,880
Speaker 2: you know, traversing the state. He's got all of these

365
00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:25,280
Speaker 2: endorsements of these local politicians. Steve King, you know, the

366
00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:28,360
Speaker 2: former congressman. Also, Listen, he matters in Iowa.

367
00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:29,920
Speaker 3: Okay. He was a very popular man, and.

368
00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:31,280
Speaker 4: I'm not that popular.

369
00:16:31,320 --> 00:16:34,360
Speaker 1: I mean, he almost lost in like an extraordinarily Republican.

370
00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:36,040
Speaker 3: District amongst Republicans. He is pop didn't he.

371
00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:38,000
Speaker 4: Lose in a primary Republican primary.

372
00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:40,400
Speaker 3: It's complicated. Yeah, more and I would say is amongst

373
00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:40,960
Speaker 3: Trump people.

374
00:16:41,160 --> 00:16:42,880
Speaker 4: So that's who i'd want bagging.

375
00:16:42,760 --> 00:16:45,440
Speaker 3: Among the Trump people. That's who I would want on

376
00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:45,960
Speaker 3: my side.

377
00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:49,000
Speaker 2: So he's got enough of these like he's got these

378
00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:51,960
Speaker 2: MAGA Every MAGA influencer in the country is down with

379
00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:54,560
Speaker 2: Evic right now in his suburban traversing the state. You've

380
00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:57,360
Speaker 2: got people like canvae Owens who've been going around with him.

381
00:16:57,560 --> 00:17:00,320
Speaker 2: My point only being that I think it's understated to

382
00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:03,080
Speaker 2: a point. I've also seen some polls as well that

383
00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:05,960
Speaker 2: have either left him out or they're diminishing his support.

384
00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:08,359
Speaker 2: So if there is to be an upset, I think

385
00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:11,080
Speaker 2: it would be him maybe coming in third. And look,

386
00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:13,800
Speaker 2: maybe this is hopium on my part. I just want

387
00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:16,520
Speaker 2: to believe that campaigning still matters. Yeah, but it's possible

388
00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:16,879
Speaker 2: it doesn't.

389
00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:18,560
Speaker 3: It may not at all. I think it's totally wrong

390
00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:18,919
Speaker 3: for me.

391
00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:21,440
Speaker 1: My thinking on Viveke cuts in two directions, which is

392
00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:23,440
Speaker 1: why I only give him like a couple point bump

393
00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:25,600
Speaker 1: over what the de Wine Register poll has him at,

394
00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:27,119
Speaker 1: which is on the one hand, yeah, I think that

395
00:17:27,119 --> 00:17:29,280
Speaker 1: in person stuff matters. On the other hand, I feel

396
00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:32,760
Speaker 1: like the like internet fueled candidates typically underperform.

397
00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:34,080
Speaker 4: I'm thinking about Andrew Yang.

398
00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:37,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, last time around, where you had all of this online,

399
00:17:37,160 --> 00:17:39,440
Speaker 1: he was everywhere and there's huge support, and you're thinking,

400
00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:41,119
Speaker 1: this has got to count for something in the polls,

401
00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:43,680
Speaker 1: and he's got Dave Chappelle and other people who were

402
00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:46,520
Speaker 1: campaigning for him, and then when it comes down to

403
00:17:46,560 --> 00:17:49,639
Speaker 1: caucus night, he actually underperforms where it was in the polls.

404
00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:51,200
Speaker 1: And you know, I feel like that's sort of a

405
00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:53,720
Speaker 1: case with these candidates who are very online, which I

406
00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:57,639
Speaker 1: would characterize Viveke as being. So that's why I give

407
00:17:57,720 --> 00:17:59,359
Speaker 1: him a little bump up for all the work that

408
00:17:59,400 --> 00:18:01,600
Speaker 1: he's doing on the grounds. But the other problem for

409
00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:04,240
Speaker 1: him is, like you know, his supporters and we'll talk

410
00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:05,720
Speaker 1: about this more when we get to the Vivike versus

411
00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:08,159
Speaker 1: Trump thing, but like they're basically Trump supporters.

412
00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:09,080
Speaker 4: They still like Trump.

413
00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:11,000
Speaker 1: I mean, Vivig's still out there like he's the greatest

414
00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:12,639
Speaker 1: president of all times. So why are you going to

415
00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:14,600
Speaker 1: vote for vivec instead of Trump. Then it doesn't make

416
00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:16,679
Speaker 1: a lot of sense, and that's why he struggled to

417
00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:19,359
Speaker 1: achieve lyftoff. But I mean, fundamentally, it's kind of the

418
00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:21,480
Speaker 1: same problem that all of these candidates have faced, which

419
00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:25,280
Speaker 1: is that they all ran campaigns that were predicated on

420
00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:28,280
Speaker 1: something will take Trump out of the equation. I'm not

421
00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:29,679
Speaker 1: going to be the one to make the argument to

422
00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:32,400
Speaker 1: take him out of the equation, but something maybe will

423
00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:35,040
Speaker 1: happen that will take him out of the equation, and

424
00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:38,119
Speaker 1: I'm going to position myself to be the top Trump

425
00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:42,800
Speaker 1: alternative that simply hasn't manifested itself. Trump is still there,

426
00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:45,000
Speaker 1: He's in some way stronger than other I saw. Ever

427
00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:46,880
Speaker 1: I saw I think it was a CBS News poll

428
00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:48,280
Speaker 1: that came out this weekend that had him at his

429
00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:52,160
Speaker 1: highest level national support in terms of Republican primary. Yet,

430
00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:55,160
Speaker 1: so if they were betting on Trump just vanishing and

431
00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:58,960
Speaker 1: going away or being imprisoned or whatever, that certainly hasn't

432
00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:03,000
Speaker 1: panned out. Has left them all bizarrely squabbling for a

433
00:19:03,080 --> 00:19:06,200
Speaker 1: meaningless second place position that doesn't even make any sense.

434
00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:09,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I saw a DeSantis kind of I guess influencer

435
00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:11,359
Speaker 2: if you will, And I was reading some of his

436
00:19:11,400 --> 00:19:14,040
Speaker 2: thought process. Yeah, it's Will Chamberlain. Just so people know,

437
00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:16,199
Speaker 2: I've followed him now for quite a long time. He

438
00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:18,159
Speaker 2: was actually why he interests me is he was a

439
00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:20,399
Speaker 2: mag guy and now he's DeSantis guy very much on

440
00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:22,520
Speaker 2: the case of like Desanti's the guy who will actually

441
00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:24,240
Speaker 2: get it done, and he's like, look, at the end

442
00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:26,280
Speaker 2: of the day, like RDS tried his best, like he

443
00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:29,399
Speaker 2: ran out race, which is one about actually getting things done,

444
00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:32,760
Speaker 2: but the dynamics of the race just were fundamentally difficult

445
00:19:33,040 --> 00:19:35,840
Speaker 2: after the mar A Lago raid. And I do really think,

446
00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:38,280
Speaker 2: you know, history is very different if that mar A

447
00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:41,080
Speaker 2: Lago raid does not happen. I'm not saying you wouldn't win,

448
00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:43,560
Speaker 2: but I don't know necessarily if he would be able

449
00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:46,000
Speaker 2: to win as much. If you look, and it's very

450
00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:48,760
Speaker 2: interesting if I've gone through and read the quotes that

451
00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:51,240
Speaker 2: you know that in general that the reporters are able

452
00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:53,560
Speaker 2: to find amongst these people who are like I'm all

453
00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:55,800
Speaker 2: in with Trump no matter what, almost every single one

454
00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:58,159
Speaker 2: of them are like look at Colorado, look at mar Lago,

455
00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:00,320
Speaker 2: look at what happened here. They're out to at him,

456
00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:02,119
Speaker 2: you know, I mean, Tucker even he was like, listen,

457
00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:04,560
Speaker 2: you know, you can't let that stand. Maybe they would

458
00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:07,640
Speaker 2: all come up with different excuses. It's actually incredibly possible. Yeah,

459
00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:10,280
Speaker 2: if they're running, but it's convenient enough that it's enough

460
00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:11,480
Speaker 2: to just be like, no, I'm not even going to

461
00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:11,879
Speaker 2: think about it.

462
00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:14,840
Speaker 1: I mean, if you're a Desanta's person, I think that's reasonable.

463
00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:15,200
Speaker 3: Cope.

464
00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:17,200
Speaker 4: But I do think it's cope because.

465
00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:20,800
Speaker 1: Maybe even before the mar Alago raid, we were looking

466
00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:22,840
Speaker 1: at this thing and saying it just doesn't make sense

467
00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:25,640
Speaker 1: because you have to give people a reason to abandon

468
00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:27,880
Speaker 1: this guy, and you're not willing to do that. And

469
00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:30,080
Speaker 1: by the way, they still really like him and he's

470
00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:34,080
Speaker 1: still extremely popular, So I don't really think that it

471
00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:38,479
Speaker 1: maybe like sharpened the dynamics or consolidated them more quickly.

472
00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:40,640
Speaker 1: But you also have to look at the fact that

473
00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:43,600
Speaker 1: once Ronda Santa's actually got out on the campaign trail,

474
00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:48,080
Speaker 1: he's an awkward dude. He's not charismatic, he's not compelling,

475
00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:50,159
Speaker 1: he's like kind of hard to watch and kind of

476
00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:51,760
Speaker 1: hard to be around, and he's not that great on

477
00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:55,119
Speaker 1: a debate stage. So even if you hadn't had the

478
00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:57,840
Speaker 1: mar A Lago raid, I don't think that Ron de

479
00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:01,040
Speaker 1: Santis would have worn well over time and been able

480
00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:03,440
Speaker 1: to maintain the margins that he was hitting, which he

481
00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:06,480
Speaker 1: was still trailing Trump even right after the midterms, when

482
00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:09,119
Speaker 1: you had this dramatic demonstration of like, oh well, the

483
00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:11,840
Speaker 1: Trump back candidates got their butts handed to them and

484
00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:14,760
Speaker 1: Ron DeSantis romped in Florida. You know, I always think

485
00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:17,440
Speaker 1: those memories we're going to fade pretty quickly, especially when

486
00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:19,960
Speaker 1: you just look at these two people and putting aside

487
00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:21,920
Speaker 1: however you feel about them, which I don't feel great

488
00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:25,560
Speaker 1: about either one of them. Trump has just so much

489
00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:27,840
Speaker 1: more of an in factor. He is so much more

490
00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:30,359
Speaker 1: of a star player. DeSantis is so much more of

491
00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:33,960
Speaker 1: a like B League player. It's just manifestly obvious when

492
00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:35,280
Speaker 1: you see the two of them out there on the

493
00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:39,000
Speaker 1: campaign trail. So even without mar A Lago Colorado or whatever,

494
00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:41,280
Speaker 1: I think this was going to be the inevitable results.

495
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:42,960
Speaker 4: Look, we will never know.

496
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,000
Speaker 2: That's what I always believe too. I was just trying

497
00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:47,760
Speaker 2: to give the case. What I would say with Trump is,

498
00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:50,119
Speaker 2: to your point, he's funny, man, don't. I don't know

499
00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:52,280
Speaker 2: what else to say. He's good, he loves he loves

500
00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:55,080
Speaker 2: the game. He loves being up there as evidence of that,

501
00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:57,159
Speaker 2: and he's funny. Just take a look at what he

502
00:21:57,240 --> 00:21:59,400
Speaker 2: said to people about why they need to come out

503
00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:02,440
Speaker 2: and vote for in the Iowa caucuses even if they're

504
00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:03,240
Speaker 2: sick as a dog.

505
00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:05,600
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen. You can't sit home.

506
00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:08,320
Speaker 2: If you're sick as.

507
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:11,320
Speaker 8: A dog, you said, Darland, I gotta think even if

508
00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:13,880
Speaker 8: you vote and then pass away, it's worth it.

509
00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 2: Even if you vote and die, it's still what's worth it.

510
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:19,679
Speaker 3: As long as he come out for Trump. I'm incredible.

511
00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:21,320
Speaker 3: There's nobody else who would.

512
00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:23,000
Speaker 4: Say Ronda Santas was not going to compete with them.

513
00:22:23,040 --> 00:22:23,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's just too.

514
00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:26,400
Speaker 1: And there is no alternate timeline in which Ronda Santas wins.

515
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:26,679
Speaker 4: That's right.

516
00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:29,159
Speaker 2: We got a friend, James Johnson who helps conduct our

517
00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:32,159
Speaker 2: focus groups. He's on the ground actually in Iowa and

518
00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:33,119
Speaker 2: he's going to join us now.

519
00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:34,000
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen.

520
00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:39,440
Speaker 2: Joining us now is our very own James Johnson from

521
00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:40,439
Speaker 2: JLP Partners.

522
00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:41,680
Speaker 3: He conducts our focus groups.

523
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,280
Speaker 2: If you can't recognize him there in his cold weather guard,

524
00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:48,080
Speaker 2: but he's actually on the ground in Iowa City, Iowa.

525
00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:50,440
Speaker 2: So James, welcome to the show. Thank you for taking

526
00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:51,119
Speaker 2: the time, Thank.

527
00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:53,440
Speaker 1: You for suffering on our behalf. We appreciate it.

528
00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:55,720
Speaker 9: Thank you. Two pairs of trousers on.

529
00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:59,920
Speaker 1: It's a smart man, man man.

530
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:02,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, So we're going to keep this as short as

531
00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:04,800
Speaker 2: possible so that you can get yourself inside. James, you've

532
00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:08,480
Speaker 2: been conducting interviews with caucus goers. Tell us a little

533
00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:11,000
Speaker 2: bit about what you're learning speaking to voters on the ground,

534
00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:13,560
Speaker 2: who you were hearing from in terms of the type

535
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:15,720
Speaker 2: of support for each individual candidate, and what do you

536
00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:16,720
Speaker 2: expect to happen tonight.

537
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:18,520
Speaker 9: Yeah. Well, the first thing I think to say is

538
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:21,400
Speaker 9: that we put out a recruiting call when we try

539
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 9: and get our interviews, so we can try and make

540
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:25,359
Speaker 9: sure that we're getting a fair range of people, people

541
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:29,480
Speaker 9: who might represent the middle of Iowa politics. And I

542
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:32,040
Speaker 9: have to say, the number of Trump supporters we've had

543
00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:35,719
Speaker 9: in return is really quite significant, and that obviously mirrors

544
00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:38,240
Speaker 9: what people are seeing in the polls as well. Trump

545
00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:42,200
Speaker 9: is clearly the favorite going into tonight, and the voters

546
00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 9: who are backing Trump, it's interesting, they're not factional, they're

547
00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:49,359
Speaker 9: not sort of you know, really hardcore trumpists ready to

548
00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:54,480
Speaker 9: go out and rally for the former president. They're middle

549
00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:58,240
Speaker 9: of the ground Republicans who simply see him as the incumbent.

550
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:00,479
Speaker 9: They see him as strong, they see as someone who

551
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:03,080
Speaker 9: gets things done, and they see him as somebody who's

552
00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:05,280
Speaker 9: had an effective first term. I was speaking to a

553
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:10,000
Speaker 9: chap last week in Davenport in Iowa, and he said

554
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:13,040
Speaker 9: that he was worried about the economy prices going up.

555
00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:15,080
Speaker 9: He thought Trump would fix that because of his record.

556
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:17,680
Speaker 9: He's worried about the southern border. He thought Trump would

557
00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:20,840
Speaker 9: finish the wall, and he's worried that under Biden we

558
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:24,160
Speaker 9: need to quote prepare for war because Russia and North

559
00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 9: Korea would take advantage of him. He sees Trump as

560
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 9: the strong man to counter that. So there's definitely a

561
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:31,520
Speaker 9: lot of that ground spell of support for Trump here,

562
00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:35,200
Speaker 9: but there's also good support for Ronda Santis as well.

563
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:38,520
Speaker 9: He's clearly had a very effective ground campaign in the state.

564
00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:41,480
Speaker 9: People who are a bit less sure on Trump but

565
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:45,720
Speaker 9: still want that sort of hard conservative politics, fiery conservative

566
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:51,080
Speaker 9: politics are going with rohnd De Santis, Nikki Haley a

567
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 9: little bit more muted. It's interesting if you look at

568
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:56,600
Speaker 9: that Seltzer pole that came out just a couple of

569
00:24:56,680 --> 00:25:00,639
Speaker 9: days ago the final Iowa pole it showed Nicki Haley

570
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:03,919
Speaker 9: in second place, but it also showed that half of

571
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:07,720
Speaker 9: her support came from Democrats and independents. And you might

572
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:10,040
Speaker 9: be able to see from me now that it's very

573
00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 9: cold here, and I'm not convinced that Nicki Haley is

574
00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:15,160
Speaker 9: going to be able to turn out loads of new

575
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 9: registrants to the Republican Party tonight to get her over

576
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:18,719
Speaker 9: the line.

577
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:21,840
Speaker 1: And how about the vig Ramaswami who Trump has just

578
00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:26,760
Speaker 1: gone after they've been Vivik had an interesting responseing basically like,

579
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:29,000
Speaker 1: I'm sort of protecting Trump from himself. They're going to

580
00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 1: take him out. A vote for me is a vote

581
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:33,000
Speaker 1: to protect Trump? Is expectively the case he's making there.

582
00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:35,960
Speaker 1: But Vivik has spent more time in Iowa, done more

583
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:39,680
Speaker 1: events than any other candidate. Do you see any signs

584
00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 1: that that has moved the needle for him in a

585
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 1: way that may not be been getting picked up in

586
00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:44,000
Speaker 1: the polls.

587
00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:47,719
Speaker 9: I think the vake Ramaswami might slightly overform his polling,

588
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:49,480
Speaker 9: but I think that's going to be hard for him

589
00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:52,560
Speaker 9: to break ten fifteen percent. And the reason why is

590
00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:55,040
Speaker 9: that for a lot of voters. They're not paying attention

591
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:56,800
Speaker 9: to the minute shy, They're not going to all these

592
00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:59,480
Speaker 9: IORA events for them. They just look at the news

593
00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:01,879
Speaker 9: and they see Trump and then there's the Santists and

594
00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:06,160
Speaker 9: Haley who are close who are behind him, and that's

595
00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:09,359
Speaker 9: sort of their calculation. I do think the Backgroundswami's clearly

596
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:12,719
Speaker 9: ran a punchy campaign. If there's one impact of it,

597
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:15,679
Speaker 9: it might be an accidental one. His straight talking and

598
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 9: plain speaking has shone a bit of a light on

599
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:21,040
Speaker 9: Ron De Santis and Nikki Haley for being a little

600
00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:24,360
Speaker 9: bit more polished, a little bit more manufactured. A chap

601
00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:26,840
Speaker 9: I was talking to again last week in Iowa. He

602
00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:29,439
Speaker 9: was saying that I like the Santis, but he's a

603
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:31,520
Speaker 9: bit of a wanna bee, he's a little bit of

604
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:34,760
Speaker 9: a politician wanna be And they didn't like that too

605
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:35,400
Speaker 9: much at all.

606
00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:39,119
Speaker 2: I could see some of that, So I mean, in overall, James,

607
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:42,040
Speaker 2: could you just tell us about any unexpected things you

608
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:44,159
Speaker 2: think the weather obviously, as you can see behind you,

609
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:46,600
Speaker 2: you think that's going to play a major role. Anything

610
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:48,080
Speaker 2: else that our viewers should look out for.

611
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:51,199
Speaker 9: I think the big number to watch is Trump support.

612
00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:56,080
Speaker 9: If Donald Trump gets below forty percent, then he is

613
00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:59,359
Speaker 9: going to be in trouble. In those later primaries, people

614
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:01,560
Speaker 9: are going to say Trump hasn't got the support he wanted.

615
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:04,320
Speaker 9: He's in a dangerous position. He's going into this race

616
00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 9: with high polling numbers, and Iowa and these primaries are

617
00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 9: all of our expectations and beating expectations, so he is

618
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 9: He's going in with those high expectations. That he gets

619
00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:15,600
Speaker 9: below forty percent, that's going to be a lot of

620
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:19,359
Speaker 9: scrutiny on Donald Trump's sport. If he gets over fifty percent,

621
00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:21,399
Speaker 9: then I think a lot of people are going to

622
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:23,520
Speaker 9: be saying, let's just wrap it up now. And if

623
00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:25,359
Speaker 9: he gets in between forty and fifty, then we may

624
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:28,280
Speaker 9: well see a competitive New Hampshire, But ultimately he'll probably

625
00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:30,800
Speaker 9: succeed in those super Suesday states. So that's what I'd

626
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:32,520
Speaker 9: say to watch out for. Yes, the race for second

627
00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:34,879
Speaker 9: place is interesting, but it's going to be whether Trump

628
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:37,479
Speaker 9: goes below forty or over fifty that will really make

629
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:37,919
Speaker 9: the difference.

630
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:40,280
Speaker 1: Tonight, last question I got for you, James, and then

631
00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 1: we'll let you get back inside where it is hopefully

632
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:43,159
Speaker 1: a little bit warmer.

633
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:46,400
Speaker 4: One theory that I have seen that.

634
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:48,199
Speaker 1: I don't particularly buy, but I want to see if

635
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:50,399
Speaker 1: you see any signs of this. Is that people basically

636
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:52,360
Speaker 1: take for granted that Trump's going to win. So, yeah,

637
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:56,000
Speaker 1: his supporters are numerous. They are excited about Donald Trump.

638
00:27:56,320 --> 00:27:59,280
Speaker 1: But when they're looking at like minus thirty degrees and

639
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:02,359
Speaker 1: snowpiled up, they might think, like, this guy's got in

640
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:04,680
Speaker 1: the bag anyway, he doesn't really need me to come

641
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:06,200
Speaker 1: out and caucus for them, so I'm just going to

642
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:08,200
Speaker 1: stay home and be warm and cozy. Do you see

643
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:10,359
Speaker 1: any signs or any possibility of that coming through?

644
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:13,840
Speaker 9: Yeah, so definitely, Donald Trump supporters are more likely to

645
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 9: be first time caucus goers. You're absolutely right, O. Interesting,

646
00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 9: They're also the more likely to be enthusiastic across the board.

647
00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:23,240
Speaker 9: So in that Seltzer poll, eighty eight percent of Trump

648
00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 9: supporters said they were enthusiastic about turning out for him.

649
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:28,639
Speaker 9: That was the highest of all the candidates. Now, when

650
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:32,640
Speaker 9: you drilled down to very enthusiastic, the santist fit the post.

651
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 9: But I still think those overall numbers of enthusiasm for

652
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 9: Trump will get his people, his people there if anybody's

653
00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:40,719
Speaker 9: not going to be turning out it will be Democrats

654
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:44,160
Speaker 9: and Independents. You can register to be a Republican on

655
00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 9: the night tonight, regardless of how you voted or how

656
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 9: your registration.

657
00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:49,520
Speaker 3: Has been in the past.

658
00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:53,160
Speaker 9: But can I see droves of Democrats and independence coming

659
00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:56,440
Speaker 9: out and registering Republican onlyed to reregister as their existing

660
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:59,040
Speaker 9: party a couple of weeks later on a night like this.

661
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 9: On let's face it not the most exciting primary season

662
00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:05,480
Speaker 9: of the last twenty years or so. I can't see it.

663
00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 9: And I think that's going to mean that the Santas

664
00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:08,920
Speaker 9: and Trump do quite well tonight.

665
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:12,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, we really appreciate you taking the time, James.

666
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:15,080
Speaker 2: Go get inside, drink some tea as I know you

667
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:17,840
Speaker 2: guys would like to do, and get warm for us,

668
00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 2: and we will talk to you very very soon, my friend.

669
00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:22,280
Speaker 4: Yes, stay safe, James, thank you, great to chat.

670
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:22,640
Speaker 3: Guys.

671
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 2: Absolutely At the same time, as we've teased so many

672
00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 2: times so far, Donald Trump finally is a gloves off

673
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:30,920
Speaker 2: on Vivike Ramaswami. Let's gohead and put this up there

674
00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:34,680
Speaker 2: on the screen. Broke over the weekend from Donald Trump's

675
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:38,000
Speaker 2: truth quote. Viveke started as campaign as a great supporter,

676
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:42,040
Speaker 2: the best president in generations. Unfortunately, now all he does

677
00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 2: is disguise his support in the form of deceitful campaign tricks.

678
00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:49,000
Speaker 2: Very sly, but a vote for Viveke is a vote

679
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:51,960
Speaker 2: for the other side. Don't get duped by this vote

680
00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:55,240
Speaker 2: for Trump. Don't waste your vote. Viveke is not maga.

681
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 2: The Biden indictments against his political opponent, all capitalized for

682
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:02,000
Speaker 2: no reason, will never be allowed in this country. They

683
00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:05,360
Speaker 2: are already beginning to fall maga. Okay, So making the

684
00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 2: case there that Vivek is a vote for.

685
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 3: The other side. So how does Avic handle this?

686
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:13,280
Speaker 2: He basically is kept saying Donald Trump is the best

687
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:16,720
Speaker 2: president in my lifetime. I'm running actually to defend Trump

688
00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:18,760
Speaker 2: because I'm the one that can get it done. He

689
00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 2: put out a very very long message on Twitter. Let's

690
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 2: go and put this up there on the screen. He says, Yes,

691
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 2: I saw President Trump's truth social posts. It's an unfortunate

692
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:31,400
Speaker 2: move by his campaign advisors. I don't think everything is

693
00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:35,440
Speaker 2: never Trump's fault. I don't think friendly fire is helpful.

694
00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:37,600
Speaker 2: Donald Trump was the greatest president of the twenty first century.

695
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 2: I'm not going to criticize him. In response to this

696
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:41,960
Speaker 2: laced attack, then he goes on I've met thousands of islands,

697
00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:44,080
Speaker 2: but here is a little bit of his message. I'm

698
00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 2: worried for Trump. I'm worried for our country. I've stood

699
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:49,280
Speaker 2: up against the prosecutions of Trump. I've defended him at

700
00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:52,120
Speaker 2: every step. I showed up at the Miami Courthouse, et cetera,

701
00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 2: et cetera. I pledge myself to remove from Maine in

702
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:56,960
Speaker 2: Colorado ballots if they remove Trump.

703
00:30:57,200 --> 00:30:58,640
Speaker 3: But we have to open our eyes.

704
00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 2: Last time it was a man made pan pandemic, big

705
00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:04,000
Speaker 2: tech election interference. Now the same billionaires funding the lawsuits

706
00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 2: against Trump are the ones trying to prop up Nikki Haley.

707
00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:08,520
Speaker 2: The same MSN blasting Trump is lavishing praise on her.

708
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:10,560
Speaker 2: They want to narrow this to a two horse race

709
00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:13,320
Speaker 2: between Trump and Haley and eliminate Trump one way or

710
00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:15,760
Speaker 2: the other and trot out their puppet into the White House.

711
00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 2: We cannot fall for that trap. One year from now,

712
00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:20,120
Speaker 2: we won't look back and say we were shocked that happened,

713
00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:23,000
Speaker 2: will kick ourselves for not stopping it. Our movement LA

714
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:25,320
Speaker 2: must live on, et cetera, et cetera. I mean, it

715
00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:27,959
Speaker 2: basically just comes and boils down to this, which is.

716
00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:30,840
Speaker 2: It's a very nice way of saying, I like Trump,

717
00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:34,080
Speaker 2: all you people who support him, but he's too dumb

718
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:35,640
Speaker 2: to actually do any of the things that he said

719
00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:37,520
Speaker 2: he was going to do, and I'm the person that

720
00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:40,840
Speaker 2: can get it done. Compelling message, one that appeals, though

721
00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 2: to only someone who thinks that Trump doesn't have the

722
00:31:44,280 --> 00:31:46,840
Speaker 2: requisite skills to pull off what he does want to do,

723
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:50,040
Speaker 2: whereas the vast majority of Republican voters are like, no, actually,

724
00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:52,200
Speaker 2: I'm totally cool with Trump. I believe in Trump. I

725
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:54,880
Speaker 2: think he can do whatever he is promising me. So

726
00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:57,240
Speaker 2: part of the reason why Vivek has had a problem

727
00:31:57,360 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 2: getting to the high level traction that we originally saw

728
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:03,800
Speaker 2: some flirtation with him, And just in general, why Vivike

729
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:06,720
Speaker 2: proving that you can be anti Trump as Haley was,

730
00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 2: you can be pro Trump as Vike was, you can

731
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:11,280
Speaker 2: be everything in between for all of these people, but

732
00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:13,640
Speaker 2: if you're not named Trump, you're just probably not going

733
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:14,480
Speaker 2: to win this primary.

734
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:16,240
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm sorry, but I think this is a

735
00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 1: really embarrassing message to be like, to try to persuade

736
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:22,080
Speaker 1: voters that the way to help Trump is to vote

737
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:22,680
Speaker 1: against Trump.

738
00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:24,320
Speaker 4: Who's going to buy that?

739
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:26,400
Speaker 3: People are smart. It doesn't make any.

740
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 4: Sense, you know.

741
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:30,240
Speaker 1: And so Vivic has this whole conspiracy that he lays

742
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:32,440
Speaker 1: out of, like they want to narrow it to a

743
00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:35,640
Speaker 1: two person race, and then somehow something's gonna happen that's

744
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:37,360
Speaker 1: going to remove Trump from the race, and then they're

745
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:39,120
Speaker 1: going to trot Nicky Haley into the White House.

746
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:41,040
Speaker 4: And so I'm helping Trump.

747
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:44,920
Speaker 1: I'm helping to save Trump by having you vote against Trump.

748
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:47,960
Speaker 1: And so in a sense, I mean what Trump said there,

749
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 1: if this is effectively like a sly campaign trick, I mean,

750
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:52,560
Speaker 1: I think that's basically like a cure is right, It's

751
00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 1: basically accurate.

752
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:56,200
Speaker 4: That's true. Vivec is trying to posture life.

753
00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 1: I am even more pro Trump than Trump himself is.

754
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 1: And that way to support Trump the hardest and be

755
00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:06,680
Speaker 1: the biggest MAGA supporter is to vote against Trump and.

756
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:10,160
Speaker 4: Vote for me. And I just obviously that argument's not

757
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:10,800
Speaker 4: going to win the day.

758
00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:11,120
Speaker 6: Now.

759
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 1: Look, as we said before, do I think he can

760
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:17,880
Speaker 1: maybe get to ten percent and the iowacaccusus maybe, but

761
00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:21,600
Speaker 1: all of these candidates, maybe no one more than the

762
00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:23,640
Speaker 1: Veke Ramaswami really bet on.

763
00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:25,680
Speaker 4: If Trump is out of.

764
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:28,240
Speaker 1: The race, then I've got a wayne, then I've got

765
00:33:28,280 --> 00:33:32,160
Speaker 1: a shot. And especially because the people who like the

766
00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:35,080
Speaker 1: Veke are basically just Trump supporters, Like there's very few

767
00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:38,040
Speaker 1: people who are Viveke number one and Trump number two.

768
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:40,400
Speaker 1: Most people are Trump number one, and then a good

769
00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:42,720
Speaker 1: number of them are the Veke number two. But if

770
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:45,560
Speaker 1: Trump is in the race, like your whole theory here

771
00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:49,160
Speaker 1: doesn't really pan out. So this jiu jitsu move that

772
00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:51,120
Speaker 1: he's trying to pull of, like the way to be

773
00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:54,240
Speaker 1: the most pro maga is to actually vote against Donald Trump.

774
00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:55,920
Speaker 4: I don't think that's going to work out too.

775
00:33:56,240 --> 00:33:58,120
Speaker 2: The only way it works, Crystal is if Trump literally

776
00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:00,760
Speaker 2: ends up in prison or disqualified by you know, to

777
00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:03,000
Speaker 2: not run, then maybe, look, maybe it was a smart strategy,

778
00:34:03,040 --> 00:34:05,080
Speaker 2: but in the interim where you can't really bet on

779
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 2: something like that, it's just not going to work. We

780
00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 2: see there's an interesting there's video that's come out from

781
00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:12,680
Speaker 2: Vi Veig on the ground in Iowa. This is actually

782
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:15,480
Speaker 2: being put out by the Trump people, not Trump campaign

783
00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:18,320
Speaker 2: for itself, kind of showing the way that he's making

784
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:19,080
Speaker 2: his pitch.

785
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:20,239
Speaker 3: To Trump voters themselves.

786
00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:23,040
Speaker 2: Pay very close attention to his language, to the way

787
00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 2: that he tries to convince this Trump voter to switch

788
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:26,000
Speaker 2: over to vote for him.

789
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:26,880
Speaker 3: Let's take a lesson.

790
00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:28,360
Speaker 5: They're scared of you.

791
00:34:28,360 --> 00:34:30,799
Speaker 10: You're scared of Trump, and they.

792
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 3: Will stop at nothing.

793
00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:32,880
Speaker 5: But we're not going to let him get away with it.

794
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:35,719
Speaker 8: I've got fresh legs, I'm not wounded. They're not going

795
00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:37,200
Speaker 8: to let this man do it.

796
00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:41,680
Speaker 4: You know when you gave me a hill because.

797
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:43,239
Speaker 3: I'm scared because you think it's false, because you think

798
00:34:43,280 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 3: it's true. I think it's true.

799
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:49,240
Speaker 8: I think they will stop as to stop them, stop Trump.

800
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 8: I am.

801
00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:52,680
Speaker 3: It's sad, but it's the truth. It's the sad, but

802
00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 3: it's the truth. So I'm asking you do your partner,

803
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:56,200
Speaker 3: We're going to you know, we can do this.

804
00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 8: We can do this. They say, how do you feel

805
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:00,880
Speaker 8: about the United States?

806
00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:04,239
Speaker 3: And I say, I'm worried and I'm fearful.

807
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:09,680
Speaker 5: That you don't have to feel that way in this country.

808
00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 9: But we're losing it.

809
00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:12,839
Speaker 3: We need people like you.

810
00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:16,560
Speaker 8: You're by doing this and that's where our founding fathers were. Yes,

811
00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:18,560
Speaker 8: it's seventeen seventy six moments soon.

812
00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 5: I want your support that iowall call distry. I need emotional.

813
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:23,320
Speaker 1: I'm emotional.

814
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:26,200
Speaker 5: About this country. I need your support on Monday night.

815
00:35:26,719 --> 00:35:27,960
Speaker 3: You do this, I'm gonna do my part.

816
00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:32,319
Speaker 8: Okay, you're picking at my shell, you are, but you know.

817
00:35:33,160 --> 00:35:37,040
Speaker 3: It's about this country. It's about this country you want

818
00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:38,200
Speaker 3: to save. You want to save Trump.

819
00:35:38,200 --> 00:35:38,719
Speaker 4: You vote for me.

820
00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:39,759
Speaker 3: I'm telling you that you have.

821
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:43,160
Speaker 8: If you vote for Trump, you're sending him a sledgeham.

822
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:46,520
Speaker 8: But you're sending him to his own demise. You're falling

823
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:48,080
Speaker 8: into the trap. Then not only a country's falling in

824
00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:49,719
Speaker 8: that he's falling. You want to save Trump, you vote

825
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:52,760
Speaker 8: for me. I need your support at the Iowa Caucus.

826
00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:54,520
Speaker 3: That's a good argument. It's good.

827
00:35:55,160 --> 00:35:58,719
Speaker 5: It's not an argument, it's the truth. Do the right

828
00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:01,240
Speaker 5: thing for him this country. That's what I'm.

829
00:36:01,120 --> 00:36:01,719
Speaker 3: Asking you for.

830
00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 2: Interesting, I mean, I don't know if it's going to

831
00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:06,360
Speaker 2: work out. It was took him over a minute in

832
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:08,399
Speaker 2: order to Did she get convinced? What do you think

833
00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:09,319
Speaker 2: did she come away say?

834
00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:11,760
Speaker 1: The fact that she's saying the candidate to his face

835
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:13,440
Speaker 1: like maybe mean no.

836
00:36:13,800 --> 00:36:14,360
Speaker 4: That means.

837
00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:16,080
Speaker 10: No.

838
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:18,840
Speaker 1: Even if the person says I am one hundred percent

839
00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:22,359
Speaker 1: with you, discount fifty percent of those. But the one

840
00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:24,480
Speaker 1: that's like yeah, maybe I'll consider it. No, they are

841
00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:28,040
Speaker 1: not voting for you. But I mean this again, to

842
00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:31,720
Speaker 1: save Trump vote for me. Who's buying that. That's it's silly,

843
00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:35,880
Speaker 1: it's ridiculous, it's embarrassing to make that case. And I

844
00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:37,640
Speaker 1: go back to what James was saying, which I think

845
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:41,880
Speaker 1: was various student analysis of effectively, like listen, Republican voters,

846
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 1: they see Trump as the incumbent, they see him as

847
00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:45,200
Speaker 1: the default.

848
00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:47,200
Speaker 4: And so if you weren't making.

849
00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:50,880
Speaker 1: A very very very compelling case to move them off

850
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:55,840
Speaker 1: of Trump to you, not for some elaborate conspiratorial argument

851
00:36:56,120 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 1: confusing our forty chess argument about how really by voting

852
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:02,279
Speaker 1: against Trump you're saving Trump, et cetera. If you aren't

853
00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:05,080
Speaker 1: making a straightforward, compelling case of why you need to

854
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:07,400
Speaker 1: move on for Donald Trump, it's not going to work out.

855
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:09,000
Speaker 1: And here's the other thing with Vic that I also

856
00:37:09,040 --> 00:37:11,239
Speaker 1: want to say, is like this man has really changed

857
00:37:11,280 --> 00:37:14,160
Speaker 1: his colors to to suit what he thinks is like

858
00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:17,439
Speaker 1: where he should be both for this campaign but also

859
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:20,640
Speaker 1: for whatever like potential media opportunities he wants for the future.

860
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 4: Right after January.

861
00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:25,040
Speaker 1: Sixth, he said that he cried when he watched What

862
00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 1: Habit on Jerry six and then this year he's like

863
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:30,560
Speaker 1: tweeting out happy in Trapman Day. So what he said

864
00:37:30,600 --> 00:37:33,160
Speaker 1: in his book very different from the way he's positioned

865
00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:36,000
Speaker 1: himself in this campaign, et cetera. You know, his whole

866
00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:38,920
Speaker 1: book also was about like anti wokeness and esg the

867
00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:41,200
Speaker 1: moment he realized that that wasn't really selling, he shifts

868
00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:41,960
Speaker 1: messages again.

869
00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:44,320
Speaker 4: So I also think there is a little.

870
00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:45,920
Speaker 1: Bit with voters of a sense of this man as

871
00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:48,440
Speaker 1: trying to just position himself to what he thinks we

872
00:37:48,600 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 1: want to hear.

873
00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:51,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, he definitely is all over the place.

874
00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:53,600
Speaker 2: His defense is that he didn't know about the entrapment

875
00:37:53,600 --> 00:37:55,759
Speaker 2: on January sixth. I mean, listen, I think there has

876
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:59,319
Speaker 2: obviously been a lot of political calculation behind it. What's

877
00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:01,719
Speaker 2: interesting to me actually was the question of why Trump

878
00:38:01,760 --> 00:38:04,240
Speaker 2: has decided to come out against him now, because Trump

879
00:38:04,840 --> 00:38:07,960
Speaker 2: nothing Trump loves more is the meant to see somebody

880
00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:10,879
Speaker 2: who is on television who is not named Trump, who

881
00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:12,240
Speaker 2: is defending Trump.

882
00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:14,000
Speaker 3: So he's held his fire on him. Now.

883
00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:16,120
Speaker 2: Part of the reasoning is, let's put this up there

884
00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:18,920
Speaker 2: on the screen. Bloomberg and others quoting people inside the

885
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:22,000
Speaker 2: Trump campaign, is that Trump is pissed because, according to

886
00:38:22,040 --> 00:38:25,160
Speaker 2: his internals, Vivek Ramaswami is one of the people who

887
00:38:25,200 --> 00:38:28,960
Speaker 2: is keeping him from under fifty percent. He desperately wants

888
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 2: to get over fifty in Iowa and then over fifty

889
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 2: again in the state of New Hampshire to seal everything

890
00:38:34,680 --> 00:38:37,400
Speaker 2: up before it even gets to South Carolina, Florida and

891
00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:40,320
Speaker 2: to Super Tuesday. The eight percent of Ramaswam, Yeah, I

892
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:43,280
Speaker 2: think it's pretty unquestioning to say, it's obvious that almost

893
00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:45,360
Speaker 2: all of that would be going to Trump if he

894
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:48,279
Speaker 2: wasn't in the race. The question, as we alluded to

895
00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:51,960
Speaker 2: previously Crystal, is how much does ground game in any

896
00:38:51,960 --> 00:38:54,680
Speaker 2: of this matter. Viveke has put in more work than

897
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:56,760
Speaker 2: all of these other candidates honestly combined.

898
00:38:56,800 --> 00:38:58,640
Speaker 3: Let's put this up there on the screen.

899
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:01,720
Speaker 2: As you can see, the Veke has done two hundred

900
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:05,840
Speaker 2: and thirty nine events in ninety four counties. Nikki Haley,

901
00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:08,360
Speaker 2: by contrast, has done fifty one events in thirty counties.

902
00:39:08,600 --> 00:39:11,160
Speaker 2: Rohnd De Santis ninety nine events and fifty seven counties,

903
00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:13,760
Speaker 2: and Donald Trump has only done twenty four events Crystal

904
00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:15,799
Speaker 2: in nineteen counties. He didn't even show up in del

905
00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:19,440
Speaker 2: Iowa till yesterday. He didn't do the traditional week long stretch.

906
00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:21,239
Speaker 2: He did much more on the ground. Now, obviously he

907
00:39:21,239 --> 00:39:24,120
Speaker 2: didn't necessarily have to do that. So if the Vike

908
00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:27,439
Speaker 2: does overperform, and it's possible also that Trump's internal show

909
00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:29,720
Speaker 2: a lot of that second choice stuff going on, which

910
00:39:29,920 --> 00:39:32,920
Speaker 2: with Trump for Vike Ramaswami voters, that could be why

911
00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:35,200
Speaker 2: he ended up attacking him. And I think really one

912
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:38,520
Speaker 2: he wanted to do is undercut Vivic's permission structure of

913
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:40,480
Speaker 2: like vote for me to save Trump. He's like, Trump

914
00:39:40,560 --> 00:39:42,239
Speaker 2: is like, just to be one hundred percent clear, that's

915
00:39:42,239 --> 00:39:42,759
Speaker 2: not what it is.

916
00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:43,919
Speaker 3: You should just vote for Trump.

917
00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, and to be clear, this is not it's basically

918
00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:48,560
Speaker 1: which I think people will be very receptive to hearing

919
00:39:48,600 --> 00:39:51,399
Speaker 1: because it's kind it's an absurd case that he's making.

920
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:53,160
Speaker 1: But if you look at this number of events in

921
00:39:53,200 --> 00:39:57,640
Speaker 1: the state based on the Selzer poll, it is entirely

922
00:39:57,760 --> 00:40:02,600
Speaker 1: possible that you end up with an inverse relationship between

923
00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:05,240
Speaker 1: the number of events that were conducted in the state

924
00:40:05,520 --> 00:40:07,960
Speaker 1: and the success in the state. Because Trump did the

925
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:11,480
Speaker 1: fewest events and he's obviously in first. Nikki did the

926
00:40:11,480 --> 00:40:14,040
Speaker 1: second fewest events, and according to that, polschas in second

927
00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:16,520
Speaker 1: ron did you know the next he did ninety nine

928
00:40:16,520 --> 00:40:18,920
Speaker 1: events and he's in third and Vivek is in fourth

929
00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:21,360
Speaker 1: with the most events on the board. I don't know

930
00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:23,720
Speaker 1: what Asa Hutchinson has done, how many events he's done,

931
00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:26,640
Speaker 1: so I'm not sure where he fits into this calculation.

932
00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:29,120
Speaker 1: But I mean, that would be a pretty stunning repudiation

933
00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:32,560
Speaker 1: of like our self conception of how politics work, and

934
00:40:32,640 --> 00:40:35,520
Speaker 1: especially how the Iowa caucuses work and what actually moves

935
00:40:35,600 --> 00:40:36,560
Speaker 1: voters in these states.

936
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:38,360
Speaker 3: You saw a lot of this in twenty sixteen.

937
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:40,560
Speaker 2: I can stay anecdotally from speaking to people who are

938
00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:43,720
Speaker 2: involved in many of the races Trump, Rubio, Ted Cruz

939
00:40:43,719 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 2: and others. They all told me the same thing. They've

940
00:40:45,560 --> 00:40:47,200
Speaker 2: said a lot of this ground stuff it doesn't matter

941
00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:49,080
Speaker 2: at all now. For Cruise, it did push him over

942
00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:51,719
Speaker 2: the edge. But Fox News is really what the primary

943
00:40:51,800 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 2: was all about. All of them said that in most

944
00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:56,440
Speaker 2: cases they were better off doing Fox and Friends than

945
00:40:56,440 --> 00:40:59,200
Speaker 2: they were trying to hold an event driving two hours

946
00:40:59,200 --> 00:41:02,200
Speaker 2: across god Taking state in the middle of the snow,

947
00:41:02,520 --> 00:41:04,840
Speaker 2: and that they could almost always reach more people that

948
00:41:04,880 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 2: earn media would eventually find its way out there and

949
00:41:08,160 --> 00:41:11,200
Speaker 2: that in general, the national mood or the Fox News

950
00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:15,920
Speaker 2: primary was ten, fifteen, twenty times more important to people's votes. Now,

951
00:41:15,960 --> 00:41:18,279
Speaker 2: like I said, it can help you if it can,

952
00:41:18,400 --> 00:41:20,400
Speaker 2: you know, to push you over the edge quote unquote

953
00:41:20,400 --> 00:41:22,560
Speaker 2: maybe four or five percent something like that in the

954
00:41:22,560 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 2: case of Ted Cruz, but it cannot bring you from

955
00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:25,440
Speaker 2: zero to fifteen.

956
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:27,080
Speaker 3: And that's what Vivek is trying to do.

957
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:30,439
Speaker 1: Basically, events at this point, campaign events, wherever they occur

958
00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:33,959
Speaker 1: iowaen to Hampshire, whatever, they should be seen by campaigns

959
00:41:34,080 --> 00:41:38,920
Speaker 1: as generating media content to be distributed through social media

960
00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:42,040
Speaker 1: or to generate some moment that's going to be covered

961
00:41:42,080 --> 00:41:46,240
Speaker 1: by traditional media. But you know, going schlepping three hours

962
00:41:46,280 --> 00:41:49,480
Speaker 1: to somewhere in Iowa to speak to thirty people, obviously,

963
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:52,840
Speaker 1: that's not a great return on investment in and of itself.

964
00:41:53,160 --> 00:41:55,600
Speaker 1: If you again have like you know, Bernie Sanders did

965
00:41:55,640 --> 00:41:59,200
Speaker 1: this well, if you have a campaign team, a videographer

966
00:41:59,280 --> 00:42:01,880
Speaker 1: that you're creating, pumping out your own content based on

967
00:42:01,920 --> 00:42:04,239
Speaker 1: your interactions with voters. This is getting put up on

968
00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:07,759
Speaker 1: various social media platforms to generate buzz an interest far

969
00:42:07,880 --> 00:42:10,719
Speaker 1: outside of Iowa. Yes, then that can make sense. But

970
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:15,040
Speaker 1: you know, these little campaign events in the diner, you know,

971
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:17,600
Speaker 1: or in the coffeehouse or whatever, in and of themselves.

972
00:42:17,680 --> 00:42:19,560
Speaker 4: It's just not the way the campaigns.

973
00:42:19,120 --> 00:42:20,360
Speaker 3: Work now, right exactly.

974
00:42:20,440 --> 00:42:23,040
Speaker 2: I mean because if it but unfortunately, you know, if

975
00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:26,600
Speaker 2: let's say he underperforms, what message does that really tell us.

976
00:42:26,680 --> 00:42:28,160
Speaker 2: It's like, you don't need to spend any time on

977
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:30,160
Speaker 2: the state at all. He should just be the incumbent.

978
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:32,800
Speaker 2: You should get as much earned media attention as possible

979
00:42:32,840 --> 00:42:35,440
Speaker 2: in the circles or whatever that matter to you. I

980
00:42:35,520 --> 00:42:38,000
Speaker 2: think that's sad, but you know, sometimes it is what

981
00:42:38,040 --> 00:42:40,920
Speaker 2: it is. We're a far cry from two thousand and eight,

982
00:42:40,920 --> 00:42:44,239
Speaker 2: where Barack Obama, I mean, bet his entire case on

983
00:42:44,280 --> 00:42:47,399
Speaker 2: these little Iowa towns. I mean, he spent he spent

984
00:42:47,520 --> 00:42:49,719
Speaker 2: so much time there, and you know, had all these

985
00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:52,680
Speaker 2: college students who flocked across the country they're organizing, and

986
00:42:52,680 --> 00:42:55,279
Speaker 2: all that mattered. It was like a traditional story in

987
00:42:55,320 --> 00:42:58,520
Speaker 2: American politics. But you know, the farther we are away

988
00:42:58,520 --> 00:42:59,520
Speaker 2: from that, it just looks.

989
00:42:59,320 --> 00:43:01,120
Speaker 3: Like ancient history. Unfortunately.

990
00:43:03,520 --> 00:43:08,520
Speaker 2: Now let's move on to Ron DeSantis. Okay, so things

991
00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:09,400
Speaker 2: I could see.

992
00:43:09,160 --> 00:43:10,080
Speaker 3: Things going two ways.

993
00:43:10,239 --> 00:43:12,080
Speaker 2: We could have a narrative out of tonight where if

994
00:43:12,120 --> 00:43:16,000
Speaker 2: DeSantis overperforms expectations by beating Nikki Haley, maybe he gets

995
00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:18,239
Speaker 2: a good news cycle. But let's say he still gets

996
00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:21,440
Speaker 2: beaten by thirty points. Friend Ronald Trump, Well, it's going

997
00:43:21,520 --> 00:43:24,040
Speaker 2: to be difficult for him. DeSantis has also boxed himself

998
00:43:24,040 --> 00:43:27,480
Speaker 2: now into a corner where there's no not like vi

999
00:43:27,600 --> 00:43:30,319
Speaker 2: veg there's no job for him waiting on the other side.

1000
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:32,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, but you know, the bridge has been burned.

1001
00:43:32,880 --> 00:43:35,719
Speaker 2: Even just today, DeSantis put out a quote at an

1002
00:43:35,760 --> 00:43:37,239
Speaker 2: event and he was like, look, he can be the

1003
00:43:37,239 --> 00:43:39,600
Speaker 2: most worthless person in the country, but if you say

1004
00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:43,440
Speaker 2: you love Trump, then he'll shower you with praise. True, accurate.

1005
00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:45,840
Speaker 2: Not necessarily something you want to say, though, if you

1006
00:43:45,880 --> 00:43:48,839
Speaker 2: want to remain in the man's good graces. But he's

1007
00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:51,160
Speaker 2: burned a lot of bridges with Trump people. It's clear

1008
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:54,120
Speaker 2: also that a lot of the Trump campaign, Trump voters

1009
00:43:54,120 --> 00:43:57,520
Speaker 2: and others have genuine like personal enmity. Now at this

1010
00:43:57,600 --> 00:43:59,880
Speaker 2: point for him, none of that was best. All that

1011
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:03,279
Speaker 2: was on display when a voter walked right up to

1012
00:44:03,360 --> 00:44:06,760
Speaker 2: his face to try and present him with a participation trophy.

1013
00:44:07,080 --> 00:44:07,640
Speaker 3: In Iowa.

1014
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:10,920
Speaker 2: This is especially brutal to watch because his wife had

1015
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:12,960
Speaker 2: to step in to try and save him.

1016
00:44:13,120 --> 00:44:16,200
Speaker 3: Let's just take a lesson real quick before we get started.

1017
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:17,080
Speaker 10: Thank you everyone.

1018
00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:20,920
Speaker 3: Governor DeSantis. I want to present to you this participation trophy.

1019
00:44:22,600 --> 00:44:26,440
Speaker 2: Probably not gonna win the election, right, but we're crowding trying.

1020
00:44:31,360 --> 00:44:37,839
Speaker 10: And he's our little snowflake and here you got. Man.

1021
00:44:37,880 --> 00:44:40,160
Speaker 2: That's that's tough to watch. Crystal's wife's got to step

1022
00:44:40,200 --> 00:44:43,120
Speaker 2: in for him. He is also so awkward because that,

1023
00:44:43,320 --> 00:44:45,960
Speaker 2: you know, what you gotta do in politics. Somebody like

1024
00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:48,080
Speaker 2: Vivek would have. Vivek has been doing this thing where

1025
00:44:48,080 --> 00:44:50,360
Speaker 2: every time a protester shows up, he like engages with

1026
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:53,200
Speaker 2: them and he talks them and rhetorically spars and does

1027
00:44:53,239 --> 00:44:56,439
Speaker 2: like a Ben Shapiro level like beat down. Trump would

1028
00:44:56,480 --> 00:44:58,480
Speaker 2: be like, get him out of here, go back to mommy,

1029
00:44:58,719 --> 00:45:01,200
Speaker 2: like look at this loser, something like just belittling, you know,

1030
00:45:01,239 --> 00:45:03,120
Speaker 2: and like inside in the crowd because.

1031
00:45:03,120 --> 00:45:04,839
Speaker 3: Sander just sits there and take it. You can't sit

1032
00:45:04,880 --> 00:45:06,479
Speaker 3: there and take it, man, can't.

1033
00:45:06,520 --> 00:45:08,520
Speaker 2: You can't let the wife stand in front of you

1034
00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:10,600
Speaker 2: something like that. He's just so awkward when he stands.

1035
00:45:10,640 --> 00:45:12,520
Speaker 2: It's kind of like when Patrick bet David trying to

1036
00:45:12,520 --> 00:45:14,480
Speaker 2: give him those shoes and was asking him at his

1037
00:45:14,440 --> 00:45:15,799
Speaker 2: foot size, so he got play. You got to turn

1038
00:45:15,800 --> 00:45:18,320
Speaker 2: this into a game otherwise. I mean, it's just it's

1039
00:45:18,320 --> 00:45:21,680
Speaker 2: deeply emasculating. And look, I mean you could say that

1040
00:45:21,880 --> 00:45:23,799
Speaker 2: all the stuff shouldn't matter, and that the you know,

1041
00:45:23,800 --> 00:45:25,640
Speaker 2: the policy and all that shit. I wish that were

1042
00:45:25,680 --> 00:45:27,680
Speaker 2: the case, but it's not. Like, let's be real, like,

1043
00:45:27,920 --> 00:45:30,799
Speaker 2: this part of politics is that people do not find

1044
00:45:30,840 --> 00:45:33,840
Speaker 2: him relatable. They find him to be an incredibly awkward person,

1045
00:45:33,920 --> 00:45:35,560
Speaker 2: and that's a that's a big problem, and that was

1046
00:45:35,600 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 2: a lot of that was on display right there.

1047
00:45:37,200 --> 00:45:39,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, this is not the first time that

1048
00:45:39,239 --> 00:45:40,719
Speaker 1: it has occurred to me that he would have been

1049
00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:43,399
Speaker 1: better off if Casey ran rather than him. His wife

1050
00:45:43,440 --> 00:45:45,960
Speaker 1: has way more She's way more comfortable in front of

1051
00:45:46,000 --> 00:45:48,719
Speaker 1: a crowd, way quicker on her feet in terms of

1052
00:45:48,880 --> 00:45:52,120
Speaker 1: answering questions, delivering a speech, all of those things. But

1053
00:45:53,120 --> 00:45:56,920
Speaker 1: you know, it's it's a sign, this little embarrassing troll moment,

1054
00:45:57,320 --> 00:46:00,120
Speaker 1: which was spread far and wide, by the way, speaking

1055
00:46:00,120 --> 00:46:02,440
Speaker 1: of social media and what things actually matter on the

1056
00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:06,239
Speaker 1: campaign trail, it's just emblematic of how far he has

1057
00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:10,279
Speaker 1: fallen since he initially launched his campaign and coming off

1058
00:46:10,320 --> 00:46:13,640
Speaker 1: of the midterms looking like he was the guy. You know,

1059
00:46:13,760 --> 00:46:17,560
Speaker 1: all this media love, lots of sort of soft Len's

1060
00:46:17,640 --> 00:46:20,880
Speaker 1: features on him and conservative amount lets Fox News throwing

1061
00:46:21,120 --> 00:46:24,480
Speaker 1: all the way in with him, to now where he

1062
00:46:24,719 --> 00:46:29,160
Speaker 1: is scrapping and hoping that he can beat Nikki Haley

1063
00:46:29,480 --> 00:46:31,640
Speaker 1: right on caucus nights. I mean, this is just so

1064
00:46:31,840 --> 00:46:35,320
Speaker 1: far beyond what he thought where he thought he would

1065
00:46:35,320 --> 00:46:36,560
Speaker 1: be coming into tonight.

1066
00:46:37,080 --> 00:46:38,840
Speaker 3: Yeah. No, you're absolutely right, Crystal.

1067
00:46:38,840 --> 00:46:42,040
Speaker 2: And this is also the problem with DeSantis's entire strategy,

1068
00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:46,480
Speaker 2: trying to recreate the Ted Cruz moments and all that.

1069
00:46:46,800 --> 00:46:50,160
Speaker 2: And we can actually see here whenever we looked through

1070
00:46:50,640 --> 00:46:53,440
Speaker 2: how Trump is going about this, he no longer is

1071
00:46:53,480 --> 00:46:57,440
Speaker 2: even taking DeSantis all that seriously. He instead has been

1072
00:46:57,640 --> 00:47:00,480
Speaker 2: returning all of his fire and pointing it all of

1073
00:47:00,480 --> 00:47:04,040
Speaker 2: it on Nicki Haley. And actually, what we've now seen

1074
00:47:04,160 --> 00:47:05,920
Speaker 2: is that, given the polling that came out in De

1075
00:47:06,000 --> 00:47:09,000
Speaker 2: moin register, the Trump campaign's actually been running ads against

1076
00:47:09,040 --> 00:47:13,879
Speaker 2: Nicki Haley on MSNBC and specifically targeting her for her

1077
00:47:13,960 --> 00:47:17,239
Speaker 2: comments on trying to cut social Security. Just to show

1078
00:47:17,280 --> 00:47:19,720
Speaker 2: you how the dynamics of the race here are changing.

1079
00:47:19,840 --> 00:47:21,799
Speaker 2: Let's take a listen to what the Trump campaign has

1080
00:47:21,800 --> 00:47:23,040
Speaker 2: been saying Americans.

1081
00:47:23,040 --> 00:47:27,719
Speaker 3: We're promised to secure retirement NICKI. Haley's plan ends that

1082
00:47:28,680 --> 00:47:32,040
Speaker 3: social security medicare. How would you manage the entitlements?

1083
00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:35,319
Speaker 1: We say, the rules have changed, we change retirement age

1084
00:47:35,360 --> 00:47:38,360
Speaker 1: to reflect life expectancy. What we do know is sixty

1085
00:47:38,400 --> 00:47:40,880
Speaker 1: five is way too low and we need to increase

1086
00:47:40,920 --> 00:47:41,640
Speaker 1: that increase that.

1087
00:47:41,719 --> 00:47:45,760
Speaker 6: Bailey's plan cut social security benefits for eighty two percent

1088
00:47:45,800 --> 00:47:46,520
Speaker 6: of Americans.

1089
00:47:47,120 --> 00:47:50,520
Speaker 3: Trump will never let that happen. I'm Donald J. Trump,

1090
00:47:50,560 --> 00:47:53,000
Speaker 3: and I approved this message. Donald J. Trump, and I

1091
00:47:53,000 --> 00:47:53,920
Speaker 3: approved this message.

1092
00:47:53,920 --> 00:47:56,319
Speaker 2: Interesting to attacking her that way and also doing it

1093
00:47:56,360 --> 00:47:59,560
Speaker 2: on MSNBC. Smart move because so much of her support

1094
00:47:59,600 --> 00:48:01,160
Speaker 2: does come from Democrats.

1095
00:48:01,200 --> 00:48:02,480
Speaker 3: Go ahead, it is, and it isn't.

1096
00:48:02,600 --> 00:48:04,920
Speaker 1: I mean this Obviously, social security isn't issue that a

1097
00:48:04,920 --> 00:48:07,279
Speaker 1: lot of people are very passionate about. I think any

1098
00:48:07,320 --> 00:48:09,400
Speaker 1: ad that ends with I'm Donald Trump and I approve

1099
00:48:09,480 --> 00:48:12,680
Speaker 1: this message on MSNBC is probably not going to gain a.

1100
00:48:12,560 --> 00:48:13,240
Speaker 4: Lot of traction.

1101
00:48:13,840 --> 00:48:15,960
Speaker 1: They would have been better off if it had been

1102
00:48:16,120 --> 00:48:20,120
Speaker 1: a connected super pack that didn't have to say I'm

1103
00:48:20,160 --> 00:48:22,319
Speaker 1: Donald Trump and I approved this message at the end,

1104
00:48:22,600 --> 00:48:25,320
Speaker 1: and I also think that they would have been better

1105
00:48:25,400 --> 00:48:28,400
Speaker 1: off with a message about Nicki Haley, of how she

1106
00:48:28,840 --> 00:48:32,440
Speaker 1: loved Donald Trump right up until it was no longer

1107
00:48:32,480 --> 00:48:37,080
Speaker 1: convenient for her, Because you if there are Democrats who

1108
00:48:37,120 --> 00:48:40,279
Speaker 1: show up to vote in the Republican Caucus tonight, it's

1109
00:48:40,320 --> 00:48:42,480
Speaker 1: not going to be because they love Nicki Haley or

1110
00:48:42,600 --> 00:48:45,759
Speaker 1: they support her position on Social Security or whatever. It's

1111
00:48:45,800 --> 00:48:48,719
Speaker 1: going to be a vote against Trump. That is the

1112
00:48:48,880 --> 00:48:52,120
Speaker 1: animating force among these liberals. So I think a much

1113
00:48:52,160 --> 00:48:55,719
Speaker 1: more effective message for them to put out there would

1114
00:48:55,760 --> 00:48:58,880
Speaker 1: be this woman is basically a wolf in shape's clothing.

1115
00:48:59,040 --> 00:49:02,680
Speaker 1: She does whatever's politically convenient. Sure, she claims she's opponent

1116
00:49:02,719 --> 00:49:05,400
Speaker 1: to Trump now, but when it was convenient for her politically,

1117
00:49:05,719 --> 00:49:08,880
Speaker 1: she was singing his praises, she was doing his bidding.

1118
00:49:09,239 --> 00:49:11,520
Speaker 1: And personally, I think that is probably a message that

1119
00:49:11,560 --> 00:49:15,200
Speaker 1: would land more effectively with anti Trump independence and anti

1120
00:49:15,280 --> 00:49:18,280
Speaker 1: Trump Democrats. Partly, I'm saying this because of the brilliance

1121
00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:20,319
Speaker 1: of my own mother, who shares basically these views, because

1122
00:49:20,320 --> 00:49:22,600
Speaker 1: I asked her yesterday, just very neutrally, like if it

1123
00:49:22,640 --> 00:49:24,560
Speaker 1: was Nicki or Biden, you know who would you be

1124
00:49:24,640 --> 00:49:26,400
Speaker 1: a mom's been kind of like an independent voter for

1125
00:49:26,600 --> 00:49:28,359
Speaker 1: a long time, so she's my barometer a.

1126
00:49:28,280 --> 00:49:28,800
Speaker 4: Lot of ways.

1127
00:49:29,120 --> 00:49:31,239
Speaker 1: And that was exactly what she said, as like, this

1128
00:49:31,280 --> 00:49:35,240
Speaker 1: woman just does whatever's politically convenient. She loved Donald Trump

1129
00:49:35,360 --> 00:49:38,040
Speaker 1: right up until right up until now. I guess she's

1130
00:49:38,040 --> 00:49:40,239
Speaker 1: an opponent of him, but I don't trust her whatsoever.

1131
00:49:40,320 --> 00:49:43,319
Speaker 1: I think that probably would land better, but who knows

1132
00:49:43,360 --> 00:49:44,359
Speaker 1: how this will all shake out.

1133
00:49:44,400 --> 00:49:47,120
Speaker 2: The question here is how this is going, what's going

1134
00:49:47,160 --> 00:49:49,600
Speaker 2: to happen? Because if Desantist gets number two, then we

1135
00:49:49,640 --> 00:49:51,920
Speaker 2: can guarantee that the Trump fire is going to return

1136
00:49:52,000 --> 00:49:54,840
Speaker 2: right back to Ron DeSantis in going into New Hampshire.

1137
00:49:54,880 --> 00:49:56,040
Speaker 3: Some of it will also depend.

1138
00:49:56,280 --> 00:49:58,279
Speaker 2: The thing is, though, is that we're all seeing this

1139
00:49:58,400 --> 00:50:01,400
Speaker 2: like lack of enthusiasm amongst Nicki voters. Is that her

1140
00:50:01,480 --> 00:50:03,560
Speaker 2: quote unquote surge in New Hampshire, who the bottom could

1141
00:50:03,560 --> 00:50:05,600
Speaker 2: fall out too if she comes in third. That's why

1142
00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:09,000
Speaker 2: she actually argued was more at stake tonight than everybody else,

1143
00:50:09,200 --> 00:50:11,160
Speaker 2: and things right now in New Hampshire are not bad

1144
00:50:11,200 --> 00:50:11,400
Speaker 2: for her.

1145
00:50:11,520 --> 00:50:13,040
Speaker 3: Let's go and put this up there on the screen.

1146
00:50:13,200 --> 00:50:15,799
Speaker 2: We've got the real clear politics polling average as you

1147
00:50:15,800 --> 00:50:18,800
Speaker 2: guys can see Trump is at forty three point five percent,

1148
00:50:18,840 --> 00:50:21,000
Speaker 2: he would love to be at fifty, but Nikki Haley's

1149
00:50:21,000 --> 00:50:23,480
Speaker 2: at twenty nine point three. And this previously is when

1150
00:50:23,560 --> 00:50:26,759
Speaker 2: Chris Christy was there with eleven point three percent, DeSantis's

1151
00:50:26,840 --> 00:50:29,120
Speaker 2: sixty five, and Vivek at five. You can assume that

1152
00:50:29,160 --> 00:50:31,680
Speaker 2: a large portion of that Christie vote would go to

1153
00:50:31,760 --> 00:50:32,760
Speaker 2: Nicki Haley, which.

1154
00:50:32,560 --> 00:50:34,040
Speaker 3: Would make her virtually tied.

1155
00:50:34,160 --> 00:50:38,400
Speaker 2: So that means if she does come in third tonight,

1156
00:50:38,640 --> 00:50:40,680
Speaker 2: I do expect to see a lot of that support

1157
00:50:40,960 --> 00:50:43,759
Speaker 2: just drop out, and the narrative will generally just be like, look,

1158
00:50:44,000 --> 00:50:46,600
Speaker 2: she was overhyped, she didn't have the ability at the

1159
00:50:46,600 --> 00:50:48,680
Speaker 2: same time she had second you could actually see that

1160
00:50:48,800 --> 00:50:51,200
Speaker 2: number go up and conceivably she could actually win the

1161
00:50:51,239 --> 00:50:54,880
Speaker 2: New Hampshire primary. I mean unlikely, but still possible, you know,

1162
00:50:55,040 --> 00:50:57,439
Speaker 2: very much in this realm. So I actually think she's

1163
00:50:57,440 --> 00:50:59,680
Speaker 2: got so much at stake here. The thing is too

1164
00:50:59,760 --> 00:51:02,640
Speaker 2: for Santis, though, is it? Because he's so low right

1165
00:51:02,640 --> 00:51:04,760
Speaker 2: now in New Hampshire. It's clear he's got Iowa first

1166
00:51:05,040 --> 00:51:07,200
Speaker 2: in terms of his campaign. Definitely, if he does come

1167
00:51:07,200 --> 00:51:09,640
Speaker 2: in second, you know he will have to work incredibly

1168
00:51:09,680 --> 00:51:12,359
Speaker 2: hard to boost those New Hampshire numbers, and I'm not

1169
00:51:12,400 --> 00:51:13,680
Speaker 2: so sure that's as realistic.

1170
00:51:13,719 --> 00:51:16,440
Speaker 4: Actually, both Ron and Nicki have big problems, yeah, they do.

1171
00:51:16,560 --> 00:51:20,360
Speaker 1: For Nicki, the biggest problem, I mean, aside from the

1172
00:51:20,360 --> 00:51:22,960
Speaker 1: fact that she's losing to Donald Trump by double digits

1173
00:51:23,000 --> 00:51:25,640
Speaker 1: still in Iowa and every other state by New Hampshire.

1174
00:51:25,640 --> 00:51:28,680
Speaker 1: But putting that aside, let's imagine the best case scenario

1175
00:51:28,719 --> 00:51:31,640
Speaker 1: for Nicki. Right, she outperforms in iowhich she clinches that

1176
00:51:31,760 --> 00:51:34,600
Speaker 1: second place and narrows the gap and keeps Trump under

1177
00:51:34,640 --> 00:51:37,880
Speaker 1: fifty percent. She goes to New Hampshire and actually wins

1178
00:51:37,920 --> 00:51:40,719
Speaker 1: in New Hampshire and go the media is loving her

1179
00:51:40,760 --> 00:51:42,840
Speaker 1: and they're pushing her, and maybe she's really got.

1180
00:51:42,680 --> 00:51:43,800
Speaker 4: A chance to defeat Trump.

1181
00:51:44,320 --> 00:51:47,520
Speaker 1: She has the same problem Elizabeth Warren, Kamala, Harris Pete Boodhagee.

1182
00:51:47,640 --> 00:51:51,279
Speaker 1: Pete is probably actually the best example going into the

1183
00:51:51,320 --> 00:51:56,160
Speaker 1: rest of the states. Her support is almost entirely college educated,

1184
00:51:56,360 --> 00:52:00,480
Speaker 1: like suburban white college educated voters. Now that's okay in

1185
00:52:00,520 --> 00:52:04,080
Speaker 1: New Hampshire, it's really not okay basically anywhere else. So

1186
00:52:04,400 --> 00:52:08,400
Speaker 1: if she doesn't show an ability to grow beyond that

1187
00:52:08,520 --> 00:52:12,319
Speaker 1: college educated suburban base that has an affinity for her,

1188
00:52:12,800 --> 00:52:16,480
Speaker 1: there's just a hard ceiling on the amount of support

1189
00:52:16,560 --> 00:52:19,880
Speaker 1: she's ever gonna get. So without any demonstrated ability to

1190
00:52:19,960 --> 00:52:22,680
Speaker 1: really cut into Trump's working class base, it's like hard

1191
00:52:22,719 --> 00:52:24,200
Speaker 1: to see how this really.

1192
00:52:24,000 --> 00:52:25,160
Speaker 4: Works out now.

1193
00:52:25,239 --> 00:52:28,560
Speaker 1: Ron DeSantis, on the other hand, has a similar college

1194
00:52:28,680 --> 00:52:31,120
Speaker 1: educated problem, but not as severe as Nicky Hill. He's

1195
00:52:31,160 --> 00:52:33,840
Speaker 1: demonstrated a little bit more of an ability to appeal

1196
00:52:33,880 --> 00:52:37,640
Speaker 1: to some working class voters. But if Ron doesn't really

1197
00:52:37,680 --> 00:52:40,640
Speaker 1: outperform in Iowa, he's completely dead in the water. I mean,

1198
00:52:40,680 --> 00:52:43,200
Speaker 1: his campaign is really hanging on by its fingernails at

1199
00:52:43,239 --> 00:52:45,800
Speaker 1: this point, so he is in a lot of ways

1200
00:52:46,000 --> 00:52:49,120
Speaker 1: more imminently threatened by the results tonight. I would not

1201
00:52:49,160 --> 00:52:52,520
Speaker 1: be surprised whatsoever if he doesn't pull off second place

1202
00:52:52,920 --> 00:52:55,880
Speaker 1: in the Iowa caucuses, which is massively in doubt at

1203
00:52:55,880 --> 00:52:58,560
Speaker 1: this point. I would not be surprised if he drops

1204
00:52:58,600 --> 00:53:01,359
Speaker 1: out of the race really really quickly, because he has

1205
00:53:01,440 --> 00:53:06,120
Speaker 1: really staked his whole potential political trajectory on the state

1206
00:53:06,160 --> 00:53:08,720
Speaker 1: of Iowa. And if he's getting third to Dickie Haley

1207
00:53:08,719 --> 00:53:10,640
Speaker 1: in Iowa, I don't know how you come back from him.

1208
00:53:10,680 --> 00:53:12,560
Speaker 2: He's got big questions, right, so he could stay in

1209
00:53:12,600 --> 00:53:14,279
Speaker 2: all the way to Florida, and he could bank it

1210
00:53:14,320 --> 00:53:15,920
Speaker 2: all on his own home state and hope that he

1211
00:53:15,960 --> 00:53:16,480
Speaker 2: beats Trump.

1212
00:53:16,560 --> 00:53:18,600
Speaker 3: There's not currently a single poll that shows him beating

1213
00:53:18,600 --> 00:53:19,240
Speaker 3: Trump in Florida.

1214
00:53:19,400 --> 00:53:22,200
Speaker 2: Just to be right the other case, you know, but look, listen,

1215
00:53:22,400 --> 00:53:25,040
Speaker 2: what if Nicky Haley fails in South Carolina? She has

1216
00:53:25,080 --> 00:53:27,000
Speaker 2: to drop out because if you don't win your home

1217
00:53:27,120 --> 00:53:29,560
Speaker 2: home state in general, you're not supposed to stay in

1218
00:53:29,600 --> 00:53:31,560
Speaker 2: the race. Then it becomes like a two man thing,

1219
00:53:31,600 --> 00:53:34,440
Speaker 2: and he becomes stronger, and then there's some fantasy narrative.

1220
00:53:34,520 --> 00:53:35,839
Speaker 3: I can make up a whole lot of things.

1221
00:53:35,840 --> 00:53:38,160
Speaker 2: I've heard a lot of hope, you know, in politics

1222
00:53:38,200 --> 00:53:40,920
Speaker 2: now over these years. Let's put this up there on

1223
00:53:40,920 --> 00:53:42,440
Speaker 2: the screen just to show you kind of where the

1224
00:53:42,480 --> 00:53:45,560
Speaker 2: problems really arise for him. From the Wall Street Journal,

1225
00:53:45,800 --> 00:53:49,240
Speaker 2: it demonstrates that his quote big bet on Iowa risks

1226
00:53:49,239 --> 00:53:52,279
Speaker 2: not paying off the slipping into third place from all

1227
00:53:52,360 --> 00:53:54,880
Speaker 2: of the tens of millions of dollars at him and

1228
00:53:54,920 --> 00:53:57,319
Speaker 2: then never back down people, which is a super pack.

1229
00:53:57,360 --> 00:54:00,960
Speaker 2: I spent in the state trying to recreate the cruise victory.

1230
00:54:01,239 --> 00:54:03,520
Speaker 2: We're not seeing the magic kind of play out in

1231
00:54:03,560 --> 00:54:05,200
Speaker 2: the same way. And the thing is is that we

1232
00:54:05,280 --> 00:54:08,640
Speaker 2: even saw Krystal, the same person Jeff Rowe who ran

1233
00:54:08,680 --> 00:54:10,960
Speaker 2: the Ted Cruz campaign and kind of pulled off that

1234
00:54:11,080 --> 00:54:14,040
Speaker 2: Iowa win running his super pack. They ended up resigning

1235
00:54:14,120 --> 00:54:16,520
Speaker 2: from the super pac. There was all this controversy. You know,

1236
00:54:16,840 --> 00:54:19,319
Speaker 2: Ron Destaniels was attacking his own superpack. It was a

1237
00:54:19,360 --> 00:54:21,840
Speaker 2: total mess. To your point of whether he's going to

1238
00:54:21,920 --> 00:54:24,200
Speaker 2: drop out or not, he spoke to Jake Tapper on

1239
00:54:24,239 --> 00:54:25,160
Speaker 2: CNN yesterday.

1240
00:54:25,160 --> 00:54:26,920
Speaker 3: He says he's not going to Let's take a listen

1241
00:54:26,960 --> 00:54:29,479
Speaker 3: to what he said. What happens if you finished third?

1242
00:54:29,600 --> 00:54:30,880
Speaker 3: Is that the end of your campaign?

1243
00:54:33,719 --> 00:54:36,879
Speaker 10: Well, happy fifteenth anniversary, Thanks for giving me on We're

1244
00:54:36,920 --> 00:54:40,640
Speaker 10: gonna do well on Monday. Our voters are very motivated.

1245
00:54:40,719 --> 00:54:42,400
Speaker 10: This is I think it's very hard to pull at

1246
00:54:42,400 --> 00:54:45,360
Speaker 10: Iowa caucus a period which the sixteenth poll was not

1247
00:54:45,440 --> 00:54:49,759
Speaker 10: accurate predicted, but especially when in negative twenty degrees. And

1248
00:54:49,800 --> 00:54:52,760
Speaker 10: so these are folks who are very motivated. Our voters

1249
00:54:52,800 --> 00:54:55,000
Speaker 10: are very motivated. We have spent a lot of time

1250
00:54:55,040 --> 00:54:58,480
Speaker 10: in Iowa because we've gone door to door getting people

1251
00:54:58,520 --> 00:55:01,120
Speaker 10: to commit to caucus. To us, We've got a huge

1252
00:55:01,239 --> 00:55:04,719
Speaker 10: number of people that have committed to Caucus, and we

1253
00:55:04,800 --> 00:55:07,080
Speaker 10: expect that these are the people that turn out. So

1254
00:55:07,120 --> 00:55:08,920
Speaker 10: there's a lot of excitement on the ground.

1255
00:55:09,040 --> 00:55:10,120
Speaker 3: So there you go, Crystal.

1256
00:55:10,200 --> 00:55:13,479
Speaker 2: Let's see what actually happens with Ron, whether he'll drop

1257
00:55:13,520 --> 00:55:14,160
Speaker 2: out or anything.

1258
00:55:14,440 --> 00:55:15,920
Speaker 3: I do think the big problem for.

1259
00:55:15,960 --> 00:55:17,319
Speaker 2: Him is not even going to be voters or whether

1260
00:55:17,360 --> 00:55:19,160
Speaker 2: he wants what if the donors are like, look, dude,

1261
00:55:19,160 --> 00:55:21,360
Speaker 2: it's over, You're done, Like you're done. Yeah, we're pulling

1262
00:55:21,400 --> 00:55:23,520
Speaker 2: the plug on something like this. He doesn't have the

1263
00:55:23,520 --> 00:55:25,360
Speaker 2: same level of grassroots energy.

1264
00:55:25,440 --> 00:55:26,120
Speaker 3: That's that again.

1265
00:55:26,280 --> 00:55:28,200
Speaker 2: I do want to say if he does come in second,

1266
00:55:28,360 --> 00:55:30,319
Speaker 2: it's not a bad world for him. You know, I

1267
00:55:30,320 --> 00:55:32,160
Speaker 2: think that buys him. I think the bis him at

1268
00:55:32,239 --> 00:55:34,319
Speaker 2: least until Florida. If he comes in second, you know,

1269
00:55:34,360 --> 00:55:36,200
Speaker 2: New Hampshire, he was never going to do particularly well.

1270
00:55:36,400 --> 00:55:38,600
Speaker 2: See what happens in South Carolina. You can always say

1271
00:55:38,680 --> 00:55:40,840
Speaker 2: let's go to my home state, just like Marco Rubio

1272
00:55:40,920 --> 00:55:42,440
Speaker 2: did back in twenty sixteen.

1273
00:55:42,640 --> 00:55:42,960
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1274
00:55:43,080 --> 00:55:46,439
Speaker 1: Maybe, I mean, I guess at this point, even though

1275
00:55:46,560 --> 00:55:48,480
Speaker 1: I just lay down the case against NICKI originally I

1276
00:55:48,480 --> 00:55:50,480
Speaker 1: think is very compelling. I do think she has a

1277
00:55:50,520 --> 00:55:53,560
Speaker 1: real like wine track problem. I also do think that

1278
00:55:53,680 --> 00:55:57,080
Speaker 1: she is almost crystallizing in the Republican base's mind as

1279
00:55:57,120 --> 00:55:59,520
Speaker 1: a kin to like a Chris CHRISTI like hard anti

1280
00:55:59,560 --> 00:56:02,239
Speaker 1: Trump gear. Even though she's been much more careful in

1281
00:56:02,280 --> 00:56:04,919
Speaker 1: her criticism of Trump, but they still have put her

1282
00:56:04,960 --> 00:56:07,520
Speaker 1: on that side of the divide, which is causing her

1283
00:56:07,560 --> 00:56:11,640
Speaker 1: negatives to really spike, etc. But I like to play

1284
00:56:11,640 --> 00:56:14,040
Speaker 1: devil's advocate here. I like to lay out the case.

1285
00:56:14,280 --> 00:56:17,799
Speaker 1: Is it theoretically possible that we could end up with

1286
00:56:17,920 --> 00:56:21,520
Speaker 1: Nikki Haley beating Donald Trump for the Republican nomination.

1287
00:56:21,760 --> 00:56:23,319
Speaker 4: Here's how it would have to go.

1288
00:56:23,880 --> 00:56:27,160
Speaker 1: She outperforms tonight in Iowa, she gets second place, she

1289
00:56:27,280 --> 00:56:30,239
Speaker 1: narrows the gap, Trump stays under fifty percent. She goes

1290
00:56:30,280 --> 00:56:32,520
Speaker 1: in New Hampshire with the head esteem and she comes

1291
00:56:32,520 --> 00:56:35,200
Speaker 1: from behind, and she actually beats him in New Hampshire.

1292
00:56:35,440 --> 00:56:38,200
Speaker 1: And guess what state is up next? Her home state

1293
00:56:38,280 --> 00:56:41,359
Speaker 1: of South Carolina, where, yes, the polls have her down

1294
00:56:41,440 --> 00:56:42,200
Speaker 1: significantly to.

1295
00:56:42,120 --> 00:56:43,160
Speaker 4: Donald Trump right now.

1296
00:56:43,360 --> 00:56:45,759
Speaker 1: But if there was any state where you could see

1297
00:56:45,800 --> 00:56:48,040
Speaker 1: her coming from behind and being able to make some

1298
00:56:48,120 --> 00:56:50,640
Speaker 1: inroads even with Trump's working class base, you would think

1299
00:56:50,680 --> 00:56:53,239
Speaker 1: it would be her home state of South Carolina. You know,

1300
00:56:53,320 --> 00:56:56,600
Speaker 1: the media liberal media, Fox News, whatever, They're going to

1301
00:56:56,640 --> 00:56:58,839
Speaker 1: be going crazy for her. She's able to pull off

1302
00:56:59,120 --> 00:57:03,680
Speaker 1: this series of upset wins and then who knows anything

1303
00:57:03,760 --> 00:57:06,480
Speaker 1: could happen at that point. That would be the case,

1304
00:57:06,480 --> 00:57:08,640
Speaker 1: that the best possible case I could.

1305
00:57:08,480 --> 00:57:09,120
Speaker 4: Make for her.

1306
00:57:09,400 --> 00:57:11,200
Speaker 1: But I do think that there are you have to

1307
00:57:11,239 --> 00:57:14,000
Speaker 1: ignore a lot of realities to imagine that that is

1308
00:57:14,000 --> 00:57:16,880
Speaker 1: going to be how things actually play out with Ron.

1309
00:57:17,000 --> 00:57:19,280
Speaker 1: I just have a hard time even being able to

1310
00:57:19,280 --> 00:57:21,840
Speaker 1: come up with a theoretical scenario where he's able to

1311
00:57:21,840 --> 00:57:24,720
Speaker 1: come from behind and pull this thing off, because he

1312
00:57:24,960 --> 00:57:27,280
Speaker 1: unlike Nicki. You know, Nicky's got a real shot at

1313
00:57:27,280 --> 00:57:29,520
Speaker 1: winning in New Hampshire. Ron doesn't have a real shot

1314
00:57:29,520 --> 00:57:31,640
Speaker 1: at winning in Iowa. There is no state where you

1315
00:57:31,680 --> 00:57:33,640
Speaker 1: can see a path of like, oh, he could actually

1316
00:57:33,680 --> 00:57:36,560
Speaker 1: win that state. So if you can't even see a

1317
00:57:36,560 --> 00:57:39,200
Speaker 1: single state where you're likely to beat Donald Trump, it's

1318
00:57:39,200 --> 00:57:41,240
Speaker 1: hard to imagine a trajectory that's going to put you

1319
00:57:41,280 --> 00:57:42,160
Speaker 1: over top of him.

1320
00:57:42,240 --> 00:57:43,400
Speaker 4: You know, at the end of the day.

1321
00:57:43,280 --> 00:57:44,080
Speaker 3: I don't disagree.

1322
00:57:44,480 --> 00:57:47,040
Speaker 2: The other problem Nikki has, I think, just to add

1323
00:57:47,080 --> 00:57:48,720
Speaker 2: to this is what do we just talk about with

1324
00:57:48,720 --> 00:57:52,480
Speaker 2: Desanta's donors are fickle as hell, you know, they abandon DeSantis.

1325
00:57:52,680 --> 00:57:53,680
Speaker 3: What if NICKI comes in.

1326
00:57:53,640 --> 00:57:56,040
Speaker 2: Third and they pull the plug before New Hampshire, I

1327
00:57:56,040 --> 00:57:58,440
Speaker 2: could see, I'm sure you could as well, where they're like, okay,

1328
00:57:58,520 --> 00:58:00,000
Speaker 2: our dream is gone. And then they, I don't know,

1329
00:58:00,120 --> 00:58:03,080
Speaker 2: they all start funding Dean Phillips' campaign, like you know,

1330
00:58:03,280 --> 00:58:06,320
Speaker 2: I mean, Billland just gave him a million dollars.

1331
00:58:05,960 --> 00:58:07,480
Speaker 3: So he gave him more money than he's ever getting

1332
00:58:07,480 --> 00:58:08,440
Speaker 3: to anybody else.

1333
00:58:08,880 --> 00:58:12,080
Speaker 2: You know, our producers just sent us this bill Bill

1334
00:58:12,120 --> 00:58:15,800
Speaker 2: Ackman and Elon are doing a Twitter spaces today. Elon

1335
00:58:15,880 --> 00:58:18,640
Speaker 2: did one with for Dean Phillips with Dean Phillips, So

1336
00:58:18,920 --> 00:58:21,360
Speaker 2: I mean, maybe Dean becomes like the guy of the day.

1337
00:58:21,400 --> 00:58:23,880
Speaker 3: It's I don't know, Crazier things have happened.

1338
00:58:23,960 --> 00:58:25,720
Speaker 2: But that's the problem is if you're if you're playing

1339
00:58:25,760 --> 00:58:28,440
Speaker 2: the billionaire race like Nikki and like Dean, and like

1340
00:58:28,480 --> 00:58:29,840
Speaker 2: a lot of these other I don't want to be

1341
00:58:29,840 --> 00:58:31,840
Speaker 2: as mean to Dean. I actually have a soft spot

1342
00:58:31,880 --> 00:58:33,080
Speaker 2: for Dan, just because I have a stoft spot for

1343
00:58:33,160 --> 00:58:36,440
Speaker 2: democracy and challenging Biden. I have a soft spot for,

1344
00:58:36,520 --> 00:58:38,919
Speaker 2: you know, anybody who's like trying to play in this race.

1345
00:58:38,960 --> 00:58:41,880
Speaker 2: But I do know that when you're relying on them,

1346
00:58:42,040 --> 00:58:44,440
Speaker 2: that's a problem. And that's where I could see for

1347
00:58:44,520 --> 00:58:46,880
Speaker 2: Nicki Haley, they could rug pull her instantly if she

1348
00:58:46,920 --> 00:58:48,760
Speaker 2: doesn't do nearly as well, and then you know, the

1349
00:58:48,800 --> 00:58:50,880
Speaker 2: bottom could fall out like that. It's not that long really,

1350
00:58:50,960 --> 00:58:52,760
Speaker 2: it's only two weeks till the New Hampshire Boy.

1351
00:58:52,840 --> 00:58:55,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, this this thing could be over very it could

1352
00:58:55,880 --> 00:58:58,320
Speaker 1: be tonight very quickly. Last thing I'll say just as

1353
00:58:58,320 --> 00:59:00,640
Speaker 1: a reminder, so I'm gonna be watching the results tonight.

1354
00:59:00,680 --> 00:59:02,600
Speaker 1: Once we have some sense of where the race is going,

1355
00:59:02,600 --> 00:59:03,960
Speaker 1: we'll go ahead and give you an update and our

1356
00:59:04,000 --> 00:59:06,280
Speaker 1: analysis of what is unfolding, So stay tuned to that,

1357
00:59:06,320 --> 00:59:08,160
Speaker 1: and we'll have Ryan and Emily in study. Will do

1358
00:59:08,240 --> 00:59:11,960
Speaker 1: a full panel breakdown tomorrow in the show, so lots

1359
00:59:11,960 --> 00:59:13,080
Speaker 1: to look forward to there