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Speaker 2: Joining us Chief, where are we economists at?
Speaker 3: EIU Constance owner joins us After a good conversation last week,
Speaker 3: it seems like three months as we last talked to you,
Speaker 3: I think it was two cups of coffee.
Speaker 4: It's I mean, that is it only Tuesday?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: On a day to day basis, how do you sustain
Speaker 3: your analysis?
Speaker 4: So, as Lisa was giving her excellent rundown, I was
Speaker 4: thinking about how we spent all of yesterday looking at
Speaker 4: the pharma codes.
Speaker 5: So there's two codes.
Speaker 4: There's the codes that start with the number thirty that
Speaker 4: are all sort of the finalized goods.
Speaker 5: There's the codes that start with the.
Speaker 4: Number twenty nine, and those are all the goods that
Speaker 4: the intermediate goods that go into pharma. And of course
Speaker 4: Trump is threatening these pharma tariffs, and we're trying to
Speaker 4: get ahead of this by like really just ingesting all
Speaker 4: the codes, thinking about what the impacts would be.
Speaker 3: The bottom line is he may screw up our feed
Speaker 3: of antibiotic materials.
Speaker 6: That's what we're talking about.
Speaker 4: Yes, I mean when you put tariffs on like this
Speaker 4: and we basically embargoed China, there is not going to
Speaker 4: be any more supply of many, many goods from China. Right,
Speaker 4: we do that to pharmaceuticals. It's a very dangerous game
Speaker 4: to play in an ad hoc way.
Speaker 7: So you put all this stuff in a blender, and
Speaker 7: I don't know what goes in this blender anymore, But
Speaker 7: what does it do to your economic forecast?
Speaker 6: Do you even? I guess you have to keep so.
Speaker 4: Obviously we keep analyzing and expanding our modalities for analyzing
Speaker 4: what the weighted average tarif rate is. But what we
Speaker 4: have and this is this is almost stupidly simple. But
Speaker 4: what we have done is we've looked at the uncertainty
Speaker 4: index that Baker and Bloom put out from Stanford. Now,
Speaker 4: one of the bases of that index is actually the
Speaker 4: EIU database are written works over the last thirty years.
Speaker 5: That's one component.
Speaker 4: Another component is the change in tax code that's anticipated
Speaker 4: over the next two years. Obviously, we have the TCJA
Speaker 4: coming up that leads to a lot of uncertainty and
Speaker 4: then the dispersion of economic forecasts. And when you use
Speaker 4: this index, you can see that it is correlated with recessions.
Speaker 5: You know that those recessions weren't we didn't we were.
Speaker 4: They were called after the fact as NBER does, and
Speaker 4: probably that data ended up being revised down. So we
Speaker 4: know that this forecasts and corresponds with a reduction in capex,
Speaker 4: a reduction in consumer spending, and of course those two
Speaker 4: things together mean lower employment growth eventually declines in employment.
Speaker 3: Okay, where are you on jobs? The elasticity of all
Speaker 3: of these emotions, crisis. Whatever our listeners and viewers think,
Speaker 3: the bottom line is, I'm sorry, if I'm elected free beer.
Speaker 2: It comes back to jobs, right.
Speaker 3: Yeah, When to claims pop or other series, the constance
Speaker 3: hunter looks at yeah.
Speaker 4: And I mean, we're expecting somewhat softer jobs in the
Speaker 4: in the April report, but that's going to be a
Speaker 4: really critical factor, I think, and when the Fed can
Speaker 4: actually go ahead and move rates, right, so as long
Speaker 4: as jobs are holding in there, and of course we
Speaker 4: know it's at best a coincidence indicator, probably a lagging
Speaker 4: indicator in many instances, but they are still going to
Speaker 4: wait to see some weakness. So we're going to look
Speaker 4: at things like ours worked. We're going to look at
Speaker 4: the diffusion index. We're going to look at the composition
Speaker 4: of what types of jobs are being created, because state
Speaker 4: and local governments are probably going to pull back on
Speaker 4: some of the hiring they've done. They did made up
Speaker 4: makeup hiring over the last four years since the pandemic
Speaker 4: because they were under hiring in all the years following
Speaker 4: the globalinantle crisis.
Speaker 6: Do you have a recession in your forecast?
Speaker 5: We do have a recession in our forecast.
Speaker 6: And how deep it is not so.
Speaker 4: It is it is concentrated in the second and third quarters.
Speaker 4: We do think the Fed ax. We think the FED
Speaker 4: goes four times this year. But it really just depends
Speaker 4: on if we can dampen down some of this uncertainty,
Speaker 4: if they could, if they could come out and be
Speaker 4: a little more clear in the way they.
Speaker 3: Can economist, I mean, whatever anybody's political persuasions, Paul am
Speaker 3: I right, we're hanging headline to headline.
Speaker 4: Yes, nobody in companies can't plan, nobody does capex in
Speaker 4: this environment.
Speaker 3: Okay, Lisa to cut to the chase. China said we
Speaker 3: want Seattle. Boeing does a ton of work with Cathay
Speaker 3: Pacific in the rest and now they're saying we don't
Speaker 3: even want the parts from Bowing. And I keep getting
Speaker 3: notes from smart people saying it's a whole supply chain thing.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and the supply chain is so integrated across borders
Speaker 4: as well, right, I mean things.
Speaker 3: We can't but we can't do manufacturing your shop ei
Speaker 3: U owns saying analysis, what do you look at?
Speaker 4: So we're looking at all the intermediate goods, right, So
Speaker 4: if you think about even manufacturing in the US, even
Speaker 4: the manufacturing we do here takes imported parts and puts
Speaker 4: that into the final goods.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 4: So this is this is like the policies of Juan
Speaker 4: Peron in Argentina in nineteen forty five when he said, well,
Speaker 4: we're just going to make everything here in Argentina, Like
Speaker 4: if we keep going down this road, it does not end.
Speaker 2: Well, that's the first time I've heard that. That's brilliant, man.
Speaker 3: I saw Anne Marie in Buenos airesis last night. Yeah,
Speaker 3: she had the red ball main thing guy, and I
Speaker 3: think she looked like a Vina Yep. Yeah, you know,
Speaker 3: I was looking at it's it's a Vina and she's
Speaker 3: a pro.
Speaker 2: She's very Madonna.
Speaker 6: What do we do here with our labor market?
Speaker 8: Here?
Speaker 7: Do you fear that this were essentially a fully employed
Speaker 7: labor market with low four percent unemployment?
Speaker 6: Where do you think that goes? Oh?
Speaker 5: I think it has to go higher.
Speaker 4: And we have a pretty I would say tempered forecast
Speaker 4: for the end of this year. If I were going
Speaker 4: to guess, the risk is to the downside, right, So
Speaker 4: we have it going up to four point six, I
Speaker 4: think four point eight, and then you get into when
Speaker 4: does it become nonlinear?
Speaker 3: Right?
Speaker 4: When does it go from four point eight up to
Speaker 4: five point five?
Speaker 9: Right?
Speaker 5: And how quickly does that move happen?
Speaker 4: Because that's what happens if you really get into a
Speaker 4: vicious circle.
Speaker 3: You're the first one I want to finish up with this.
Speaker 3: You're the first one on air to bring up what
Speaker 3: I'm focused on. And folks, this goes back to my
Speaker 3: major in college and all that you know a long
Speaker 3: time ago, and that is the pharmaceuticals. And I think
Speaker 3: people are like, oh, one, I can't spell it and
Speaker 3: it's too complicated, But the answer.
Speaker 2: Is all of those pills we give our.
Speaker 3: Family members, particularly our kids when they're sick, have materials
Speaker 3: from China. That's an accurate statement, right.
Speaker 4: And think of all the people we have an aging population.
Speaker 4: Think of know a person over the age of sixty
Speaker 4: that doesn't take at least one prescription a day.
Speaker 5: Very few.
Speaker 2: I've never confronted that. I mean, I mean, if I
Speaker 2: look at this concert, I.
Speaker 4: Put myself, I'm not over sixty, but I still I'm
Speaker 4: at the age where I'm taking one medicine a day
Speaker 4: at least you and Michael Backer.
Speaker 3: But the bottom line constants Hunter is and I'm suggesting
Speaker 3: here maybe exaggerating this pharmaceutical debate, it's way more than
Speaker 3: just another press release or overlaw office statements.
Speaker 4: Absolutely, it's really really significant. And when you combine that
Speaker 4: with the fact that we withdrew from who that we're
Speaker 4: gutting HH staff, it's really has significant ramifications.
Speaker 5: Remember Robert Gordon.
Speaker 4: One of the things Rise and Fall of American growth,
Speaker 4: he cites five things that contributed to productivity of the
Speaker 4: early nineteen hundreds of mid nineteen hundreds, and Nacillan is
Speaker 4: one of them. Why Because medicine help people get sick.
Speaker 4: I mean, get sick, get recover from being sick faster.
Speaker 4: It means fewer people die, and that improves a prop.
Speaker 3: Back seeing which I remember the pin drops. Yep, consence,
Speaker 3: Thank you so much. Constance Hunter with EIU Here.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 3: It's a week A banker names JP Morgan over in
Speaker 3: the investment side, Golden sacks JP Morgan Equity Trading ginormous
Speaker 3: City Group today two hundred and twenty nine thousand employees.
Speaker 2: How about Paul published on the.
Speaker 3: Bloomberg A bank with nine hundred and fifty one employees.
Speaker 2: Towns River, New Jersey, Jersey Shore.
Speaker 3: There we are, Jersey Shore joining us now from Ocean
Speaker 3: First Financial. I'm loving that we're doing this. Nobody told
Speaker 3: me that we're doing this.
Speaker 2: This is great.
Speaker 3: Christopher joins us from Ocean First Financial. It's back I
Speaker 3: guess to nineteen oh two, is point pleasant?
Speaker 2: That's right?
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right, Okay, yeah, this is great. We are
Speaker 3: so mental about talking about these ginormous banks. Just simply
Speaker 3: in this modern age, how do you compete with super
Speaker 3: regionals in the ginormous.
Speaker 8: Well, you know, it all comes down to your relationship
Speaker 8: with your customers. So you know, we were founded in
Speaker 8: nineteen oh two is the Point Pleasant Building and Loan
Speaker 8: Association of Point Pleasant Beach, so at the Bailey Building
Speaker 8: and Loan right over the year's Commercial Bank Diversified. We
Speaker 8: operate throughout the Northeast and what we've found is customers
Speaker 8: really value that ability to have a conversation with a
Speaker 8: bank or a trusted partner, someone who's going to deliver.
Speaker 8: And you're going to compete on that, on doing what
Speaker 8: you promised you're going to do, doing it quickly and effectively.
Speaker 8: And if you do that, you're going to do just fine.
Speaker 7: Chris, what's a typical corporate customer for your bank? What
Speaker 7: are they like and what are they telling you these days?
Speaker 8: So you know, most of our clients are small of
Speaker 8: family owned businesses. They range, We cover a geography between
Speaker 8: DC and Boston. All sorts could be manufacturing, logistics services companies.
Speaker 8: And what they're telling us today is certainly there's a
Speaker 8: level of apprehension given all the volatility, but they're not
Speaker 8: overly concerned. You know, many of these folks took a
Speaker 8: master class in supply chain during the pandemic, so they've
Speaker 8: got you know, secondary and tertiary suppliers, they've got different
Speaker 8: warehouse capabilities. They are concerned, and we're concerned about how
Speaker 8: long the volatility continues, but generally they're weathering it pretty well.
Speaker 7: I mean, that's something that Tom has talked about a lot,
Speaker 7: which is corporations adapt and maybe that's kind of what
Speaker 7: you're seeing here. Are they putting projects on hold?
Speaker 6: Are they waiting?
Speaker 7: We've heard that from some of the larger companies out
Speaker 7: there that the larger banks. We've heard from even more
Speaker 7: Morgan standing seeing other clients are just saying just let.
Speaker 6: Us wait a little bit. Are you seeing that at
Speaker 6: the local level.
Speaker 8: Yeah, Paul, some are so. I'll use an example. We
Speaker 8: have a plastic manufacturer that was in the process of
Speaker 8: doing a significant expansion, buying some equipment, some of which
Speaker 8: was from Germany, someone was from China. The cost of
Speaker 8: the tariffs on that equipment would have raised the cost
Speaker 8: of their project. I think in the range of six
Speaker 8: hundred thousand dollars. They're likely going to continue with the
Speaker 8: project at some point, but it doesn't make sense to
Speaker 8: just forge forward and pay those tariffs. They're going to
Speaker 8: wait and see. And if this is a short term thing,
Speaker 8: I don't think it's going to upset much. But the
Speaker 8: longer this goes on, the concern builds.
Speaker 3: I'm fascinated by the day to day grind of a
Speaker 3: very small bank versus the major. Now on your website,
Speaker 3: you hired Zachary Hauser in northern Virginia. He's a Minnesota
Speaker 3: Vikings fan, which is I don't get.
Speaker 2: It, but there it is.
Speaker 3: Why would Zachary Hauser leave Bank of America, Wells Fargo,
Speaker 3: and the iconic Buffalo M and T Bank to join
Speaker 3: an itty bitty bank in Times River.
Speaker 8: Yeah. So, Look, we built a following, and I think
Speaker 8: professionals from around our industry understand that the number one
Speaker 8: thing that's important to them is their ability to serve
Speaker 8: their clients. And although we're on the smaller side, you know,
Speaker 8: it's just about fourteen billion dollars of assets, we're a
Speaker 8: top one hundred US bank. That's both wonderful and terrible. Right,
Speaker 8: we should have more banks in this country, but that
Speaker 8: gives us the scale to be able to support very
Speaker 8: large businesses.
Speaker 2: I mean, just this just came up. Paul just sent
Speaker 2: me an email.
Speaker 3: Paul, I think a refine through ocean first shot. I
Speaker 3: think it says it, Sure, you can take your vest, but.
Speaker 6: Down there exactly, you know, check it out. We'll find
Speaker 6: these guys. So, Chris, you mentioned you know, maybe we
Speaker 6: need more banks.
Speaker 7: I think what a lot of people came to understand
Speaker 7: when we saw the regional bank crisis of several years.
Speaker 6: Ago with SVB is Boyd.
Speaker 7: We have five thousand regional banks around the country. No
Speaker 7: other country has that. Do we consolidate the regional bank business?
Speaker 6: How do you think about that?
Speaker 8: Well, certainly there's a need for efficiencies and consolidation. I
Speaker 8: think we'll see some of that. But on the other hand,
Speaker 8: you know, we provide a niche regional banks in general,
Speaker 8: where we're the main street lenders. So when you think
Speaker 8: about these family owned, privately held businesses, the majority of
Speaker 8: credit to that sector comes from regional banks like US
Speaker 8: between ten billion and one hundred billion dollars in deposits.
Speaker 8: If you think back to COVID, we were the industry
Speaker 8: that jumped in and handled the PPP out of the gate.
Speaker 8: We were faster than the big banks. We made early
Speaker 8: commitments to doing it, and in our case, you know,
Speaker 8: we were out. We're one of the first lenders in
Speaker 8: the business getting dollars on the street to our clients.
Speaker 8: So we do need that kind of layer of banks
Speaker 8: that are much more responsive to their customers.
Speaker 2: Do you read Jamie Diamond's annual letter?
Speaker 8: Absolutely?
Speaker 3: What do you take from mister Diamond's letter that you
Speaker 3: can apply to nine hundred and fifty one employees out
Speaker 3: of Thymes River.
Speaker 8: There's a lot of commonality. So when you think about
Speaker 8: the principles that Jamie runs by and we believe the
Speaker 8: same thing. You want to have a fortress balance sheet.
Speaker 8: You know, look, we don't want a recession, but we're
Speaker 8: prepared for a recession. If you're running a bank, you
Speaker 8: better expect that one could happen. I think the discipline
Speaker 8: about doing the right thing by your customers, by your employees.
Speaker 8: Probably my favorite story is the outsourcing of their security
Speaker 8: and then the reinsourcing of their security, because at the
Speaker 8: end of the day, you want to make sure that
Speaker 8: your people are connected to the customers.
Speaker 6: Private equity, I mean private credit. How is that is
Speaker 6: that a.
Speaker 7: Competitor to you in your market, because we've heard about
Speaker 7: it that they're competing with the JP Morgans of the
Speaker 7: world and taking business from them or maybe substituting for them.
Speaker 6: Are you seeing in the smaller markets?
Speaker 8: Absolutely, private credit as a competitor, But interestingly they're also
Speaker 8: becoming a big client of ours. So in many cases
Speaker 8: we are doing more and more business with private credit
Speaker 8: where we're lending along with them, coming into join credit
Speaker 8: facilities or lending to them either on a deal by
Speaker 8: deal basis and note on note finance or lending to
Speaker 8: the fund itself. So I think it's the fastest growth
Speaker 8: area for US.
Speaker 3: I gotta ask, I mean, are you I mean, I
Speaker 3: don't mean to be rude, but I'm going to be rude.
Speaker 3: Are you guys helping out Jon bon Jovi with a
Speaker 3: soul kitchen?
Speaker 8: Times Are of New Jersey, as a matter of fact,
Speaker 8: did a joint project with jompon Jovi in the Soul kitchen.
Speaker 8: We built out a new facility a couple of years back.
Speaker 8: We were one of four donors that helped make that possible.
Speaker 8: The Ocean First Foundation is made over fifty million dollars
Speaker 8: worth of grants in our communities and that was one
Speaker 8: of our special grants a number of years ago.
Speaker 2: Did he sing a concerts for your mister Ward meeting.
Speaker 8: We didn't get a concert, but he was a very
Speaker 8: gracious man.
Speaker 3: So Chris Mayor, thank you so much. Greatly appreciate it.
Speaker 3: With the Ocean First team.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live
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Speaker 1: say Alexa Play. Bloomberg eleven thirty said this before.
Speaker 3: That there's like four hundred and twenty two books out
Speaker 3: on asset allocation and diversification. In the single read for
Speaker 3: adults both Global Wall Street and people engaged in the
Speaker 3: debate is from Sebastian Page. His day job as a
Speaker 3: tea rope. His night job is to sit in the
Speaker 3: Orioles dugout. He writes it, I don't like an iPad
Speaker 3: or whatever, and we celebrate today. His new book is
Speaker 3: that is out and it's a shift. It's called The
Speaker 3: Psychology of Leadership. Sebastian Page joins us right now come on,
Speaker 3: you're doing a Malcolm Gladwell thing here.
Speaker 2: Why are we doing this? Why are we doing this?
Speaker 2: Psychology of leadership? Did cal rip Can put you up
Speaker 2: to this?
Speaker 9: Tom, that's a great compliment. I think Malcolm Gladwell is
Speaker 9: a great writer. And by the way, Tom, I don't
Speaker 9: write on iPads. That's pretty hard if you're a writer.
Speaker 9: I'm super excited the book is coming out today. I'm
Speaker 9: basically giving you an exclusive in the broadcast media, and
Speaker 9: there's a lot in there for investors, Tom, in particular
Speaker 9: sports psychology, which I find absolutely fascinating. You have to
Speaker 9: learn about losing, you know, Federer said in a statement
Speaker 9: to students and commencement. He said, whatever game you play
Speaker 9: in life, you're going to lose. And so that applies
Speaker 9: to the psychology of leadership of investing as well. And
Speaker 9: you know what we do every day, Tom, in financial
Speaker 9: market differentiate between luck and skills. That's important too.
Speaker 2: You've got a great idea here.
Speaker 3: I saw in an old movie David Ogilvy, one of
Speaker 3: the giants of advertising.
Speaker 2: There's no statue to committees in parks. You go over
Speaker 2: to Central Park and there's no statue. Paul Sweeney to
Speaker 2: a committee.
Speaker 3: You've got a chapter in there on rethinking team leadership.
Speaker 3: Are we two team leadership now?
Speaker 9: Sebastian page, you know, and psychology, there's a lot of research.
Speaker 9: It's become very popular to talk about introverts and extroverts,
Speaker 9: and so in an investment committee you can see those dynamics.
Speaker 9: The research is fascinating because it shows that when people
Speaker 9: take time to think about their decision on their own
Speaker 9: and do independent thinking without the influence of others in
Speaker 9: the room, and then bring those decisions to the table
Speaker 9: to debate them, the outcome on decision making is generally better.
Speaker 9: So I find that fascinating. And in our assocation committee,
Speaker 9: what we do is before the meeting and we have
Speaker 9: one tomorrow, everyone submits their thinking, their views on tactical
Speaker 9: ass allocation independently and then we collate them and discuss
Speaker 9: them as a committee. This way you remove things like
Speaker 9: group think. Tom But you know, we all say we
Speaker 9: hate meetings. Meetings are essential. Collaboration is essential. At tiro Price.
Speaker 9: Our collaboration style is I would say different. We see
Speaker 9: the exchange of ideas as a source of alpha, so
Speaker 9: it's super important for us.
Speaker 3: I would point out the tiro Price invented this folks
Speaker 3: a few years ago. I mean, I mean they are
Speaker 3: kind of going to buy side Paul for fractions.
Speaker 7: Debate Sebastian, how do you think what's the best way
Speaker 7: to learn leadership skills? I just came from a board
Speaker 7: meeting at the Business School of Duke last weekend and
Speaker 7: that was a big, big topic at the board level
Speaker 7: talking about leadership and how you teach that, how do
Speaker 7: you think that's best instilled.
Speaker 9: So in the Psychology of leadership, I talk about several
Speaker 9: ways in which what we think about leadership is wrong.
Speaker 9: For example, you think a leader needs to be a
Speaker 9: great communicator. Well, the higher you go up the organization,
Speaker 9: the more you need to listen and be a good listener.
Speaker 9: We think leaders need to be decisive. A lot of
Speaker 9: really smart, effective leaders I've known knew how to look
Speaker 9: at decisions where they needed strategic patients. That's often counterintuitive
Speaker 9: because we all want to be super decisive in investment
Speaker 9: management too, And so you also think the leader needs
Speaker 9: to be built consensus and be agreeable. But sometimes as
Speaker 9: a leader, you're not a leader if you're not making
Speaker 9: the tough decisions. So you also need to be to
Speaker 9: be disagreeable. And the last one that's counterintuitive and that
Speaker 9: I think is a big part of learning or relearning
Speaker 9: leadership is this idea that the leader is unflappable and
Speaker 9: there's no stress there. And the reality and sports psychology
Speaker 9: shows that, and positive psychology too, is that stress increases
Speaker 9: performance up to a point and leaders have to be
Speaker 9: able to handle it and be vulnerable about it and
Speaker 9: to a certain extent, embrace it.
Speaker 7: So there's a lot of stress out there in the marketplace,
Speaker 7: in the workplace, whether it's driven by technology, changing political trends.
Speaker 6: How do leaders kind.
Speaker 7: Of within their institutions deal with stress and kind of
Speaker 7: manage that throughout the organization?
Speaker 9: So we all try to push it out right, We
Speaker 9: all go around thinking zero stress is where I'm going
Speaker 9: to get optimal performance. What I've learned from sports psychology.
Speaker 9: I explain this in the book. It's fascinating stress performance
Speaker 9: increases with stress up to a point, and there's a
Speaker 9: point of optimal performance that's not zero stress, whether that's
Speaker 9: for organizations or individuals, and then after that then you
Speaker 9: choke and you know, you get the negative effects of it.
Speaker 3: There's a little stress out there right now, Sebastian page.
Speaker 3: What should our stress listeners and viewers on YouTube do
Speaker 3: in these stressful times? Do they radically shift their portfolio?
Speaker 2: Do they tweak it? Do they go play golf?
Speaker 3: Or do do they go watch The Last Place Baltimore
Speaker 3: Orioles sponsored by tiro Price.
Speaker 9: Thank you for the plug, Dumb. I always appreciate it.
Speaker 9: And by the way, thank you for supporting my books,
Speaker 9: my first one in this one as well. You're very
Speaker 9: gracious to everyone in the industry.
Speaker 2: Got well, thank you, Sebastian.
Speaker 3: But you have a movie coming out in the first
Speaker 3: book right with DiCaprio.
Speaker 9: I don't know if that movie would sell talk about
Speaker 9: asset allocation versification. Maybe there's a Hollywood version somewhere, but
Speaker 9: look the market as it's been sold up. We lost
Speaker 9: ten and a half percent in two days a couple
Speaker 9: of weeks ago. Those like we've only seen this or
Speaker 9: worse three times since World War Two, so we're going
Speaker 9: through real volatility.
Speaker 8: Tom.
Speaker 9: I know you like to watch at the Vicks. We
Speaker 9: went in above fifty. So we're in a situation where
Speaker 9: in our investment teams typically would be leaning in because
Speaker 9: this is when there's panic and now you want to
Speaker 9: have the opposite reaction and take advantage of higher risk premium.
Speaker 9: But I would say right now on our platform, because
Speaker 9: markets are still expensive, and you know, earnings expectations are
Speaker 9: still high at eleven percent, and growth is slowing and
Speaker 9: was slowing into the tariff wars, we're actually closer to
Speaker 9: neutral in most of our portfolios, most of our discussions,
Speaker 9: even some investors are looking to sell counter rallies. So
Speaker 9: unlike other selloffs for the next couple months, I would
Speaker 9: sell on our platform, we're more.
Speaker 7: Cautious sebastially in terms of leadership. Has it changed over time?
Speaker 7: Does it change over time? I mean when I was
Speaker 7: coming up in investment banking, you know, my vice president
Speaker 7: told me to you know, work this weekend to do
Speaker 7: this deal.
Speaker 6: That's just what I did. Does that still work today?
Speaker 9: I think it has changed. It has evolved. The cultures
Speaker 9: across industry, industries but in particular in the investment business
Speaker 9: have evolved, and in my mind, they're in a better place.
Speaker 9: I think, Paul. The thing that's missing that we need
Speaker 9: to talk about more is the meaning of what we
Speaker 9: do in financial markets, And to a certain extent, we
Speaker 9: have a little bit of a crisis of meaning if
Speaker 9: you will, with index strategies and so on. To me,
Speaker 9: the meaning is that every day we go to work,
Speaker 9: we try to make money for our clients to give
Speaker 9: them better retirements. We're not solving you know, big cancer.
Speaker 9: We're not, but we're going to work to make money
Speaker 9: for our clients, and that's incredibly meaningful. We want to
Speaker 9: give them better financial lives. So I think that's the
Speaker 9: next step. I think our culture has evolved in our
Speaker 9: industry in a positive direction, more mutual respect, more building trust.
Speaker 9: But the next step is to go back to the
Speaker 9: meaning of what we do in financial markets. It's hugely important.
Speaker 9: We don't talk about.
Speaker 2: It, right, Sebastian.
Speaker 3: A lot of people are sitting there staring at the
Speaker 3: ceiling or whatever in their car a loon, going what
Speaker 3: a god's name do I do with a depleted four
Speaker 3: to oh one? K Is it a time to be bold?
Speaker 3: I get so much. We had Katie Greifeld and she
Speaker 3: was brilliant on marketed caution. It's like, Okay, people are
Speaker 3: scared stiff, let's be cautious. And there are all these
Speaker 3: cautious strategies. How does Sebastian Page adapt to the marketing
Speaker 3: of fear within the industry.
Speaker 9: There's a lot of fear, there's a lot of emotion.
Speaker 9: I was on a client webcast last week and we
Speaker 9: had about one hundred clients and one person in the
Speaker 9: Q and A wrote, Look, I'm panicking abo my four
Speaker 9: to one K I'm retiring in five years. Should I
Speaker 9: sell everything? And I think that's the wrong way to
Speaker 9: look at it. It's tried, you can put it in
Speaker 9: a fortune cookie. But those are the moments where you
Speaker 9: go back to the basics of staying invested for the
Speaker 9: long run, taking a longer run perspective. This is part
Speaker 9: of being invested in markets. If you're willing to live
Speaker 9: through shorter term volatility, you get paid over time. And
Speaker 9: tom if you're if you're fifty five, you know, or sixty,
Speaker 9: I know you're much younger than that, thanks, But if
Speaker 9: you're in that spot, you're going to retire, you still
Speaker 9: have thirty years of life, Like, it's not the time
Speaker 9: to de risk your entire portfolio. Even if you're close
Speaker 9: to retirement. Yes, you're going to shift to generating income,
Speaker 9: but you still you still need growth in your portfolio. Uh,
Speaker 9: even even in retirement. So this idea that you've got
Speaker 9: to go everything to cash or everything to treasuries. To me,
Speaker 9: it's just bad advice.
Speaker 3: Sebastian, thank you so much. Congratulations on a book timely
Speaker 3: in this time of emotion and crisis, The Psychology of Leadership,
Speaker 3: Timeless Principles to improve your leadership of individuals, teams, and yourself.
Speaker 3: I'll get that out on Twitter and LinkedIn here Sebastian
Speaker 3: page of course at t rope price.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just
Speaker 1: say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3: Scott Stringer joins us right now, a former New York
Speaker 3: City Controller and a mayor. Kenned is a primary and
Speaker 3: there's an election in that. Let's get the primary out
Speaker 3: of the way right now. New York Times writes it up.
Speaker 3: The mayor's occupied, the governor's piled into the race, and
Speaker 3: the line is everyone's invisible. How does Scott Stringer get
Speaker 3: visible up to the June primary?
Speaker 10: Wait till the mayor race actually started. You know, you
Speaker 10: mentioned my cousin Bella Abzug and the mayor's race of
Speaker 10: nineteen seventy seven when Ed Koch was barely a belip
Speaker 10: during that race until two weeks to go. And so
Speaker 10: everyone who thinks these races end in May, they don't.
Speaker 10: They actually end the end of June. And I have
Speaker 10: high favorable as a record of fiscal prudence and a
Speaker 10: government record that is unmatching this race. So I'm very
Speaker 10: confident going into the next couple of months.
Speaker 3: Is your constituency off of Nayler and rest and you
Speaker 3: know the whole thing, is your constituency as organized is
Speaker 3: it was twenty years ago. Is there a machine in
Speaker 3: New York City where the Liberal party that progresses can
Speaker 3: get behind one candidate or is it chaos?
Speaker 10: Look, I think times have changed in this city. I
Speaker 10: think people really want a mayor who knows what he
Speaker 10: or she is doing. They want someone who's confident, they
Speaker 10: want someone with experience. They're tired of the chaos. They
Speaker 10: don't want the current mayor Eric Adams cast, they don't
Speaker 10: want Quomo casts. They want somebody you would have you
Speaker 10: build a Blasio. I was controller during that time. Period
Speaker 10: I went after. I held up to Blasio accountable three
Speaker 10: hundred and sixty four days a year. I gave him
Speaker 10: a day off due to Christmas. But I understand city agencies.
Speaker 10: I've exposed waste and corruption. I know how to run
Speaker 10: a government in the most competent way, and I think
Speaker 10: that's what people want. But they also want to live here,
Speaker 10: to have affordable housing, to have economic opportunity. People who
Speaker 10: come here understand how critical it is to want to
Speaker 10: stay here. We got to go back to the compact
Speaker 10: of safety, good parks, clean air. This is all what
Speaker 10: a mayor has to do, and we need someone to
Speaker 10: start focusing on it.
Speaker 6: From your perspective, Scoff, what is the state of the
Speaker 6: city today.
Speaker 10: I think we're at a crossroads. I don't think people
Speaker 10: understand just how corrupt the last four years have been.
Speaker 10: And the first thing the next mayor has to do
Speaker 10: is literally reform the government. Bring in the best and
Speaker 10: the brightest, bring in people who are competent, who want
Speaker 10: to see a better city. Look, we've got to hire
Speaker 10: three thousand more cops. We have to align policing and
Speaker 10: a mental health insition. We've got to make sure that
Speaker 10: a strong mayor can take on Trump when he's going
Speaker 10: against New York City. We need somebody who has that experience,
Speaker 10: not just pie in the sky promises. And I think
Speaker 10: I positioned myself in that way.
Speaker 7: Metropolitan Transit Association, the congestion tax, what's your view there?
Speaker 10: Look, I think gets working. I think people want to
Speaker 10: pay a little more to move the city.
Speaker 2: We have a.
Speaker 10: City government that depends on goods and services how they
Speaker 10: get in and out.
Speaker 2: Of New York.
Speaker 10: But look, let's make let's make it clear we have
Speaker 10: work to do. Congestion pricing helps some, but we have
Speaker 10: to build out a Fireborough transportation plan, and we have
Speaker 10: not done that yet. When I was supporting congestion pricing
Speaker 10: back when Mike Bloomberg was mayor, we always said we
Speaker 10: would look at Queen's and Staten Island and how we
Speaker 10: can close those transit deserts. So this is just the
Speaker 10: first step in a long transportation journey for New York City.
Speaker 3: Imagine that mister Bloomberg, of course of Bloomberg LP is
Speaker 3: the founder of this radio station and signs my paycheck, you.
Speaker 2: Know, exactly once a year. Good morning, mister Bloomberg. Scott.
Speaker 10: I thought it'd be good to mention him.
Speaker 2: Just that's good.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you mentioned him. I got to mention I'm
Speaker 3: not in speaking terms with them. But that's a separate issue.
Speaker 3: Scott Stringer. How can liberals be conservative and be anti crime?
Speaker 3: I mean, there's a whole modern theology. The last election
Speaker 3: was to me and eldamount of election. Long Island rose
Speaker 3: up and screened we're afraid. How do guys like you
Speaker 3: in a city that's become afraid support NYPD and support
Speaker 3: a tougher crime view.
Speaker 10: Why do you think that people who are on the
Speaker 10: liberal side of the equation, or even the conservative side
Speaker 10: can't come together and recognize a problem when you see it.
Speaker 2: It's not me, That's what we've got in this now.
Speaker 10: But I got to tell you something. It's very easy
Speaker 10: for me to look at the problem and say, hey,
Speaker 10: we are having a trouble retaining the police officers we have.
Speaker 10: You know that the young police officers are leaving the
Speaker 10: police force in droves, and they're not retiring from policing.
Speaker 10: They're actually going to Long Island or Mosquito. States like
Speaker 10: Texas and Florida paid and well it's not so much
Speaker 10: pay as it is. How do you create a work
Speaker 10: life balance. You know, we've gone from six hundred and
Speaker 10: fifty million dollars in overtime for policing to one point
Speaker 10: three billion. We have the lowest head count in the
Speaker 10: NYPD in generations. We're down to thirty three thousand cops.
Speaker 10: So what should we do. It doesn't matter whether you're
Speaker 10: a liberal conservative monitor. We've got to hire more cops.
Speaker 10: That makes financial sense and also from a safety perspective,
Speaker 10: makes sense. I want to put a cop on every
Speaker 10: train during in those high crime areas.
Speaker 2: I want to.
Speaker 10: Align policing with a mental health initiative because we see
Speaker 10: people languishing, suffering, dying on the streets when I take
Speaker 10: my two kids on the subway most mornings to go
Speaker 10: to school. You know what I see. I see what
Speaker 10: I saw in the nineteen seventies, people languishing all the side.
Speaker 2: It must admit, well said, and it's actually true.
Speaker 3: Scott's tringer here with the primary in June, in an
Speaker 3: election in November, of course, with his public services family
Speaker 3: service over the years to New York City.
Speaker 6: Pulse reading, Scott, as were you to be elected, what
Speaker 6: would be the first one.
Speaker 7: Hundred days of your administration?
Speaker 2: What would be the focus.
Speaker 10: We bring in a whole new government, we reform these
Speaker 10: city agencies. We have a clarion call for people who
Speaker 10: want to serve this city to come into this government
Speaker 10: and do the people's business. That's the first step. Second,
Speaker 10: I want to build the same kind of housing that
Speaker 10: was built in a different generation called Mitchellama Housing MITCHELLAMA
Speaker 10: two point zero. I want to take our thousand vacant
Speaker 10: lots in the city and let's put to work for
Speaker 10: affordable housing so families can come here, go to our
Speaker 10: best universities, and stay here in a way that's affordable.
Speaker 10: I want to put three thousand cops back on the street.
Speaker 10: Want to make sure we align that program with a
Speaker 10: mental health initiative. I want to make sure that we
Speaker 10: have people taken the police test again. Eight thousand people
Speaker 10: took the police test. Do you know how many people
Speaker 10: took the sanitation test. There's something wrong here. We're just
Speaker 10: not governing anymore. And also I want to make sure
Speaker 10: that we bring back something called quality of life. We'll
Speaker 10: have a Deputy Mayor for Quality of Life, will initiate
Speaker 10: quality stat will break down the silos of all these
Speaker 10: city agencies. I've ordered all of them. And I got
Speaker 10: to tell you mental health has to start talking to
Speaker 10: small business and vice versa. We got to get a
Speaker 10: handle on this government. You need somebody who actually knows
Speaker 10: how to govern. And as borough president for eight years,
Speaker 10: as controller for eight years, I know the fiscal situation
Speaker 10: in the city like the back of my hand. I'm
Speaker 10: not over promising like others in this campaign. I'm just
Speaker 10: gonna be me and be the life long New York.
Speaker 10: I've always been to fix the city taxes.
Speaker 7: Pretty much everybody you walk into on the street say,
Speaker 7: my taxes are too high.
Speaker 6: What do you say, what's your tax.
Speaker 10: Well, let's give people some value for those taxes. Let's
Speaker 10: go back to the compact we've always had in this city,
Speaker 10: which is if you come here, you pay a little more,
Speaker 10: but you're going to get a clean city, not going
Speaker 10: to have rats running around, garbage piled high. I mean
Speaker 10: we've got rats walking upright right now. They've come up
Speaker 10: to me on one occasion at night saying, hey, can
Speaker 10: you beat Cormo. I mean, this is a real crisis.
Speaker 10: People say, what am I paying for? What's the value
Speaker 10: of my taxes? And we have to go back to
Speaker 10: making people understand that what they get in return is
Speaker 10: a real New York City that they'll never leave.
Speaker 3: What is your policy on immigration and migration and the
Speaker 3: emotion here of people coming in that are new and troubled.
Speaker 10: But we've always had people come, like my grandparents came
Speaker 10: to this city and came to this country. So let's
Speaker 10: not start filtering out who comes and who doesn't. Let's
Speaker 10: be very smart about this. Look, you bring gang members
Speaker 10: in here, get them out. I'd be the first one
Speaker 10: to stand and say, we want you out of here.
Speaker 10: No guns, no violence, but for people who flee persecution,
Speaker 10: for people, I mean, come on, we were so much
Speaker 10: better than this, and we can. You know, good government
Speaker 10: means we can absorb people. We can absorb crises have
Speaker 10: to be a meltdown.
Speaker 2: I gotta ask you one final question, Harry.
Speaker 3: I think it's it's hugely emotional for everyone across this nation.
Speaker 2: There is an.
Speaker 3: Uproar among liberals over a generational shift, as identified by
Speaker 3: Senator Schumer, over to something new. John Ferrell mentioned at
Speaker 3: Glenn Young kein of Virginia. The Utah event of Senator
Speaker 3: Sanders the other day helped me here with what the
Speaker 3: new generation of Democrats look like.
Speaker 10: Look, we've always had a new generation of Democrats. You
Speaker 10: mentioned the starting at the show, very very smart, right,
Speaker 10: Bella Abzug was a new generation.
Speaker 3: You can't imagine a shock, and this mouthy woman was.
Speaker 2: It was the progress.
Speaker 10: And look, I was a twelve year old kid running
Speaker 10: around campaigning with her during the Vietnam War. And you
Speaker 10: know what happened. A few years into her term. The
Speaker 10: US News and World Report, not the most liberal newspaper
Speaker 10: or magazine, named her the number three most competent and
Speaker 10: effective member of Congress. I'm am, I embrace the new generation,
Speaker 10: but right now we need somebody in New York City
Speaker 10: who represents vision, experience and competence. Make no mistake, this
Speaker 10: is a moment where we have to rate the ship
Speaker 10: so that the new generation can come in. Right, do
Speaker 10: it all generations?
Speaker 3: Someone say you just describe Governor Cuomo. I mean, the
Speaker 3: basic idea is he's been around, his father's iconic. You're
Speaker 3: up against Cuomo. What's the biggest stetriment there?
Speaker 10: Look, he's chaotic, and he's not pro New York City,
Speaker 10: and he doesn't like people, and he's running the worst
Speaker 10: kind of campaign. That makes him unelectable in my mind,
Speaker 10: but no one's going to realize that until June first.
Speaker 10: And I hope to come back on this show as
Speaker 10: your mayor elect and talk to you, especially about the
Speaker 10: history of mayoral politics and what went wrong in his campaign.
Speaker 10: But I am not feeling.
Speaker 2: Him disgustering to thank you so much for running here
Speaker 2: for mayor.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 1: star It's seven am Eastern on Apple Coarclay and Android
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch
Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal for their newspapers.
Speaker 2: To the astronaut, Lisa.
Speaker 11: Imagine I could dare to dream.
Speaker 5: Good Mardy, guys.
Speaker 11: So yeah, So the first thing I want to start
Speaker 11: with is Netflix, and they have some ambitious goals.
Speaker 5: This was from the Wall Street Journal.
Speaker 11: They're saying that it hopes to achieve a one trillion
Speaker 11: dollar market cap. Currently their cap is almost at about
Speaker 11: four hundred billion. They want to also double its revenue
Speaker 11: by twenty thirty. Executives have this goal of tripling Netflix
Speaker 11: is operating in come by twenty thirty from ten billion
Speaker 11: last year. So this was all in this annual business review,
Speaker 11: meaning last last month that some people were in.
Speaker 5: They told this to the Wall Street Journal, so they
Speaker 5: got the insight info on it.
Speaker 2: How do they do this? They raise?
Speaker 6: Well, that's what I was going to ask Lisa, how
Speaker 6: did they do it? I mean, I mean, I think
Speaker 6: they're going to raise the prices.
Speaker 7: I think they're going to ramp up, continue to ramp
Speaker 7: up their advertising in newsps, gribers, in other parts.
Speaker 2: Of the ads within the video. Yeah, yeah, stards within
Speaker 2: the video.
Speaker 6: Yeah, you can.
Speaker 11: Different tiers, so you can do the cheaper version and
Speaker 11: you'll pay less, but you get the ads with it.
Speaker 7: I mean, four hundred billion market caps, stocks of five
Speaker 7: percent this year, but up fifty percent.
Speaker 2: For Netflix.
Speaker 8: Oh, I don't know.
Speaker 10: I mean, I don't know.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 2: I'm today.
Speaker 6: Ye, you just think I'm gonna go.
Speaker 5: But eighteen bucks?
Speaker 2: So what would you pay? Would you pay twenty four
Speaker 2: ninety nine?
Speaker 12: No?
Speaker 6: I don't think.
Speaker 11: I think I would have to go for the commercials,
Speaker 11: even though my kids are like, we don't do commercials.
Speaker 5: I don't care, I don't.
Speaker 11: I mean, So that's that iPhones, right, We've been hearing
Speaker 11: different stories about how much the price of an Apple
Speaker 11: iPhone can go up because of all this tariff uncertainty.
Speaker 11: Business Insider actually went to all these Reddit posts people
Speaker 11: talking about it, and they're saying what they're doing to
Speaker 11: avoid these pricey upgrades save money on the device. For example,
Speaker 11: some are doing the maintenance now right, they're they're doing
Speaker 11: the upgrade now, But others are keeping up with the
Speaker 11: battery life because that's what seems to go first. When
Speaker 11: you have your phone. It's always like, oh, the battery
Speaker 11: is dying. I need an upgrade, And they're saying, no,
Speaker 11: you just need a new battery. So they're saying you
Speaker 11: could do something like that. It's about ninety nine bucks
Speaker 11: or so you can get the new battery.
Speaker 5: But something else they're doing.
Speaker 11: They're saying iPhones come with this limited one year warranty
Speaker 11: that you might not even.
Speaker 5: Know that you have.
Speaker 11: So it has it, so go check it out. And
Speaker 11: they also have this Apple Care plus thing. It's about
Speaker 11: fourteen bucks a month.
Speaker 2: I do Apple Care.
Speaker 5: You do do the Apple Care. See, I haven't.
Speaker 6: Even heard of that.
Speaker 11: I have to get it today because the crews, the repairs,
Speaker 11: the replacement.
Speaker 5: If you lose it.
Speaker 3: I mean if you get them on the phone, they
Speaker 3: treat you differently than just the numbers, is what they would.
Speaker 11: Did you know you're paying fourteen dollars Worset.
Speaker 2: Apple in two weeks. We don't have a clue.
Speaker 10: I don't know.
Speaker 6: We have no clue where the economy is.
Speaker 3: You know, the uncertainty of your folks off the chart.
Speaker 3: Good morning, Nick Booth out of Stanford one.
Speaker 6: What do you okay?
Speaker 11: You touched on this a little bit, all the talk
Speaker 11: right Rory McRoy victory the Masters. I have the numbers
Speaker 11: for you because you were talking about the ratings and
Speaker 11: how much people watching it.
Speaker 5: CBS that it.
Speaker 11: Attracted twelve point seven million viewers Sunday. That's a thirty
Speaker 11: three percent increase from last year when Scotti Sheffield he won.
Speaker 11: It's the most watched match up, yes, since twenty.
Speaker 5: Eighteen Sheffield he played with them Scheffler Scheffler. Uh so
Speaker 5: it was the most watched one, yes, twenty eighteen.
Speaker 11: So I mean this tournament really needs the boost too.
Speaker 11: Then then the article kind of gets into that as well.
Speaker 7: Boy, I don't know what they changed, Yeah, one of
Speaker 7: the other I think it might be the British I'm
Speaker 7: not sure the Open Championship as they call it, not sure,
Speaker 7: but they've got them spaced out pretty much throughout the year.
Speaker 2: Okay, is that all you got today?
Speaker 5: I did?
Speaker 3: Well?
Speaker 12: You know what you talked about the Blue Origin playing.
Speaker 2: Yeah? How that?
Speaker 6: Well?
Speaker 12: You know what, a lot of people have been giving
Speaker 12: them some backlash, Gail King, Lauren Sanchez, a lot of
Speaker 12: celebrities because they're saying it was commercial lies and it
Speaker 12: is a commercial flight.
Speaker 2: It's for rich people. I get it. I'm not going
Speaker 2: to pay one hundred and fifty thousand Base Bay.
Speaker 6: Why are they there?
Speaker 2: Why are they giving him garbage?
Speaker 11: I'm serious, because they're just saying that they were sellouts.
Speaker 11: They also have the environmental factor for it. Does you
Speaker 11: know it's no point just going up, going into the environment.
Speaker 3: We upset the desert of Texas when the capsule landed.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
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