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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Joining us Chief, where are we economists at?

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Speaker 3: EIU Constance owner joins us After a good conversation last week,

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Speaker 3: it seems like three months as we last talked to you,

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Speaker 3: I think it was two cups of coffee.

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Speaker 4: It's I mean, that is it only Tuesday?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: On a day to day basis, how do you sustain

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Speaker 3: your analysis?

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Speaker 4: So, as Lisa was giving her excellent rundown, I was

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Speaker 4: thinking about how we spent all of yesterday looking at

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Speaker 4: the pharma codes.

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Speaker 5: So there's two codes.

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Speaker 4: There's the codes that start with the number thirty that

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Speaker 4: are all sort of the finalized goods.

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Speaker 5: There's the codes that start with the.

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Speaker 4: Number twenty nine, and those are all the goods that

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Speaker 4: the intermediate goods that go into pharma. And of course

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Speaker 4: Trump is threatening these pharma tariffs, and we're trying to

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Speaker 4: get ahead of this by like really just ingesting all

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Speaker 4: the codes, thinking about what the impacts would be.

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Speaker 3: The bottom line is he may screw up our feed

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Speaker 3: of antibiotic materials.

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Speaker 6: That's what we're talking about.

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Speaker 4: Yes, I mean when you put tariffs on like this

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Speaker 4: and we basically embargoed China, there is not going to

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Speaker 4: be any more supply of many, many goods from China. Right,

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Speaker 4: we do that to pharmaceuticals. It's a very dangerous game

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Speaker 4: to play in an ad hoc way.

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Speaker 7: So you put all this stuff in a blender, and

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Speaker 7: I don't know what goes in this blender anymore, But

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Speaker 7: what does it do to your economic forecast?

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Speaker 6: Do you even? I guess you have to keep so.

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Speaker 4: Obviously we keep analyzing and expanding our modalities for analyzing

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Speaker 4: what the weighted average tarif rate is. But what we

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Speaker 4: have and this is this is almost stupidly simple. But

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Speaker 4: what we have done is we've looked at the uncertainty

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Speaker 4: index that Baker and Bloom put out from Stanford. Now,

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Speaker 4: one of the bases of that index is actually the

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Speaker 4: EIU database are written works over the last thirty years.

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Speaker 5: That's one component.

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Speaker 4: Another component is the change in tax code that's anticipated

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Speaker 4: over the next two years. Obviously, we have the TCJA

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Speaker 4: coming up that leads to a lot of uncertainty and

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Speaker 4: then the dispersion of economic forecasts. And when you use

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Speaker 4: this index, you can see that it is correlated with recessions.

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Speaker 5: You know that those recessions weren't we didn't we were.

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Speaker 4: They were called after the fact as NBER does, and

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Speaker 4: probably that data ended up being revised down. So we

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Speaker 4: know that this forecasts and corresponds with a reduction in capex,

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Speaker 4: a reduction in consumer spending, and of course those two

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Speaker 4: things together mean lower employment growth eventually declines in employment.

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Speaker 3: Okay, where are you on jobs? The elasticity of all

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Speaker 3: of these emotions, crisis. Whatever our listeners and viewers think,

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Speaker 3: the bottom line is, I'm sorry, if I'm elected free beer.

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Speaker 2: It comes back to jobs, right.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, When to claims pop or other series, the constance

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Speaker 3: hunter looks at yeah.

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Speaker 4: And I mean, we're expecting somewhat softer jobs in the

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Speaker 4: in the April report, but that's going to be a

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Speaker 4: really critical factor, I think, and when the Fed can

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Speaker 4: actually go ahead and move rates, right, so as long

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Speaker 4: as jobs are holding in there, and of course we

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Speaker 4: know it's at best a coincidence indicator, probably a lagging

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Speaker 4: indicator in many instances, but they are still going to

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Speaker 4: wait to see some weakness. So we're going to look

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Speaker 4: at things like ours worked. We're going to look at

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Speaker 4: the diffusion index. We're going to look at the composition

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Speaker 4: of what types of jobs are being created, because state

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Speaker 4: and local governments are probably going to pull back on

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Speaker 4: some of the hiring they've done. They did made up

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Speaker 4: makeup hiring over the last four years since the pandemic

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Speaker 4: because they were under hiring in all the years following

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Speaker 4: the globalinantle crisis.

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Speaker 6: Do you have a recession in your forecast?

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Speaker 5: We do have a recession in our forecast.

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Speaker 6: And how deep it is not so.

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Speaker 4: It is it is concentrated in the second and third quarters.

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Speaker 4: We do think the Fed ax. We think the FED

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Speaker 4: goes four times this year. But it really just depends

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Speaker 4: on if we can dampen down some of this uncertainty,

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Speaker 4: if they could, if they could come out and be

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Speaker 4: a little more clear in the way they.

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Speaker 3: Can economist, I mean, whatever anybody's political persuasions, Paul am

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Speaker 3: I right, we're hanging headline to headline.

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Speaker 4: Yes, nobody in companies can't plan, nobody does capex in

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Speaker 4: this environment.

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Speaker 3: Okay, Lisa to cut to the chase. China said we

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Speaker 3: want Seattle. Boeing does a ton of work with Cathay

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Speaker 3: Pacific in the rest and now they're saying we don't

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Speaker 3: even want the parts from Bowing. And I keep getting

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Speaker 3: notes from smart people saying it's a whole supply chain thing.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and the supply chain is so integrated across borders

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Speaker 4: as well, right, I mean things.

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Speaker 3: We can't but we can't do manufacturing your shop ei

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Speaker 3: U owns saying analysis, what do you look at?

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Speaker 4: So we're looking at all the intermediate goods, right, So

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Speaker 4: if you think about even manufacturing in the US, even

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Speaker 4: the manufacturing we do here takes imported parts and puts

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Speaker 4: that into the final goods.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 4: So this is this is like the policies of Juan

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Speaker 4: Peron in Argentina in nineteen forty five when he said, well,

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Speaker 4: we're just going to make everything here in Argentina, Like

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Speaker 4: if we keep going down this road, it does not end.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's the first time I've heard that. That's brilliant, man.

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Speaker 3: I saw Anne Marie in Buenos airesis last night. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: she had the red ball main thing guy, and I

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Speaker 3: think she looked like a Vina Yep. Yeah, you know,

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Speaker 3: I was looking at it's it's a Vina and she's

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Speaker 3: a pro.

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Speaker 2: She's very Madonna.

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Speaker 6: What do we do here with our labor market?

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Speaker 8: Here?

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Speaker 7: Do you fear that this were essentially a fully employed

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Speaker 7: labor market with low four percent unemployment?

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Speaker 6: Where do you think that goes? Oh?

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Speaker 5: I think it has to go higher.

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Speaker 4: And we have a pretty I would say tempered forecast

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Speaker 4: for the end of this year. If I were going

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Speaker 4: to guess, the risk is to the downside, right, So

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Speaker 4: we have it going up to four point six, I

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Speaker 4: think four point eight, and then you get into when

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Speaker 4: does it become nonlinear?

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Speaker 3: Right?

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Speaker 4: When does it go from four point eight up to

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Speaker 4: five point five?

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Speaker 9: Right?

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Speaker 5: And how quickly does that move happen?

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Speaker 4: Because that's what happens if you really get into a

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Speaker 4: vicious circle.

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Speaker 3: You're the first one I want to finish up with this.

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Speaker 3: You're the first one on air to bring up what

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Speaker 3: I'm focused on. And folks, this goes back to my

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Speaker 3: major in college and all that you know a long

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Speaker 3: time ago, and that is the pharmaceuticals. And I think

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Speaker 3: people are like, oh, one, I can't spell it and

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Speaker 3: it's too complicated, But the answer.

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Speaker 2: Is all of those pills we give our.

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Speaker 3: Family members, particularly our kids when they're sick, have materials

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Speaker 3: from China. That's an accurate statement, right.

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Speaker 4: And think of all the people we have an aging population.

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Speaker 4: Think of know a person over the age of sixty

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Speaker 4: that doesn't take at least one prescription a day.

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Speaker 5: Very few.

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Speaker 2: I've never confronted that. I mean, I mean, if I

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Speaker 2: look at this concert, I.

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Speaker 4: Put myself, I'm not over sixty, but I still I'm

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Speaker 4: at the age where I'm taking one medicine a day

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Speaker 4: at least you and Michael Backer.

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Speaker 3: But the bottom line constants Hunter is and I'm suggesting

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Speaker 3: here maybe exaggerating this pharmaceutical debate, it's way more than

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Speaker 3: just another press release or overlaw office statements.

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Speaker 4: Absolutely, it's really really significant. And when you combine that

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Speaker 4: with the fact that we withdrew from who that we're

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Speaker 4: gutting HH staff, it's really has significant ramifications.

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Speaker 5: Remember Robert Gordon.

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Speaker 4: One of the things Rise and Fall of American growth,

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Speaker 4: he cites five things that contributed to productivity of the

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Speaker 4: early nineteen hundreds of mid nineteen hundreds, and Nacillan is

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Speaker 4: one of them. Why Because medicine help people get sick.

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Speaker 4: I mean, get sick, get recover from being sick faster.

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Speaker 4: It means fewer people die, and that improves a prop.

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Speaker 3: Back seeing which I remember the pin drops. Yep, consence,

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Speaker 3: Thank you so much. Constance Hunter with EIU Here.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on

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Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: It's a week A banker names JP Morgan over in

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Speaker 3: the investment side, Golden sacks JP Morgan Equity Trading ginormous

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Speaker 3: City Group today two hundred and twenty nine thousand employees.

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Speaker 2: How about Paul published on the.

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg A bank with nine hundred and fifty one employees.

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Speaker 2: Towns River, New Jersey, Jersey Shore.

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Speaker 3: There we are, Jersey Shore joining us now from Ocean

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Speaker 3: First Financial. I'm loving that we're doing this. Nobody told

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Speaker 3: me that we're doing this.

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Speaker 2: This is great.

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Speaker 3: Christopher joins us from Ocean First Financial. It's back I

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Speaker 3: guess to nineteen oh two, is point pleasant?

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Speaker 2: That's right?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right, Okay, yeah, this is great. We are

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Speaker 3: so mental about talking about these ginormous banks. Just simply

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Speaker 3: in this modern age, how do you compete with super

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Speaker 3: regionals in the ginormous.

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Speaker 8: Well, you know, it all comes down to your relationship

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Speaker 8: with your customers. So you know, we were founded in

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Speaker 8: nineteen oh two is the Point Pleasant Building and Loan

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Speaker 8: Association of Point Pleasant Beach, so at the Bailey Building

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Speaker 8: and Loan right over the year's Commercial Bank Diversified. We

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Speaker 8: operate throughout the Northeast and what we've found is customers

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Speaker 8: really value that ability to have a conversation with a

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Speaker 8: bank or a trusted partner, someone who's going to deliver.

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Speaker 8: And you're going to compete on that, on doing what

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Speaker 8: you promised you're going to do, doing it quickly and effectively.

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Speaker 8: And if you do that, you're going to do just fine.

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Speaker 7: Chris, what's a typical corporate customer for your bank? What

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Speaker 7: are they like and what are they telling you these days?

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Speaker 8: So you know, most of our clients are small of

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Speaker 8: family owned businesses. They range, We cover a geography between

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Speaker 8: DC and Boston. All sorts could be manufacturing, logistics services companies.

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Speaker 8: And what they're telling us today is certainly there's a

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Speaker 8: level of apprehension given all the volatility, but they're not

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Speaker 8: overly concerned. You know, many of these folks took a

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Speaker 8: master class in supply chain during the pandemic, so they've

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Speaker 8: got you know, secondary and tertiary suppliers, they've got different

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Speaker 8: warehouse capabilities. They are concerned, and we're concerned about how

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Speaker 8: long the volatility continues, but generally they're weathering it pretty well.

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Speaker 7: I mean, that's something that Tom has talked about a lot,

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Speaker 7: which is corporations adapt and maybe that's kind of what

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Speaker 7: you're seeing here. Are they putting projects on hold?

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Speaker 6: Are they waiting?

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Speaker 7: We've heard that from some of the larger companies out

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Speaker 7: there that the larger banks. We've heard from even more

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Speaker 7: Morgan standing seeing other clients are just saying just let.

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Speaker 6: Us wait a little bit. Are you seeing that at

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Speaker 6: the local level.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, Paul, some are so. I'll use an example. We

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Speaker 8: have a plastic manufacturer that was in the process of

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Speaker 8: doing a significant expansion, buying some equipment, some of which

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Speaker 8: was from Germany, someone was from China. The cost of

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Speaker 8: the tariffs on that equipment would have raised the cost

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Speaker 8: of their project. I think in the range of six

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Speaker 8: hundred thousand dollars. They're likely going to continue with the

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Speaker 8: project at some point, but it doesn't make sense to

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Speaker 8: just forge forward and pay those tariffs. They're going to

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Speaker 8: wait and see. And if this is a short term thing,

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Speaker 8: I don't think it's going to upset much. But the

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Speaker 8: longer this goes on, the concern builds.

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Speaker 3: I'm fascinated by the day to day grind of a

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Speaker 3: very small bank versus the major. Now on your website,

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Speaker 3: you hired Zachary Hauser in northern Virginia. He's a Minnesota

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Speaker 3: Vikings fan, which is I don't get.

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Speaker 2: It, but there it is.

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Speaker 3: Why would Zachary Hauser leave Bank of America, Wells Fargo,

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Speaker 3: and the iconic Buffalo M and T Bank to join

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Speaker 3: an itty bitty bank in Times River.

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Speaker 8: Yeah. So, Look, we built a following, and I think

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Speaker 8: professionals from around our industry understand that the number one

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Speaker 8: thing that's important to them is their ability to serve

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Speaker 8: their clients. And although we're on the smaller side, you know,

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Speaker 8: it's just about fourteen billion dollars of assets, we're a

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Speaker 8: top one hundred US bank. That's both wonderful and terrible. Right,

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Speaker 8: we should have more banks in this country, but that

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Speaker 8: gives us the scale to be able to support very

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Speaker 8: large businesses.

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Speaker 2: I mean, just this just came up. Paul just sent

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Speaker 2: me an email.

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Speaker 3: Paul, I think a refine through ocean first shot. I

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Speaker 3: think it says it, Sure, you can take your vest, but.

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Speaker 6: Down there exactly, you know, check it out. We'll find

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Speaker 6: these guys. So, Chris, you mentioned you know, maybe we

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Speaker 6: need more banks.

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Speaker 7: I think what a lot of people came to understand

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Speaker 7: when we saw the regional bank crisis of several years.

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Speaker 6: Ago with SVB is Boyd.

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Speaker 7: We have five thousand regional banks around the country. No

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Speaker 7: other country has that. Do we consolidate the regional bank business?

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Speaker 6: How do you think about that?

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Speaker 8: Well, certainly there's a need for efficiencies and consolidation. I

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Speaker 8: think we'll see some of that. But on the other hand,

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Speaker 8: you know, we provide a niche regional banks in general,

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Speaker 8: where we're the main street lenders. So when you think

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Speaker 8: about these family owned, privately held businesses, the majority of

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Speaker 8: credit to that sector comes from regional banks like US

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Speaker 8: between ten billion and one hundred billion dollars in deposits.

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Speaker 8: If you think back to COVID, we were the industry

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Speaker 8: that jumped in and handled the PPP out of the gate.

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Speaker 8: We were faster than the big banks. We made early

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Speaker 8: commitments to doing it, and in our case, you know,

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Speaker 8: we were out. We're one of the first lenders in

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Speaker 8: the business getting dollars on the street to our clients.

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Speaker 8: So we do need that kind of layer of banks

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Speaker 8: that are much more responsive to their customers.

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Speaker 2: Do you read Jamie Diamond's annual letter?

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Speaker 8: Absolutely?

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Speaker 3: What do you take from mister Diamond's letter that you

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Speaker 3: can apply to nine hundred and fifty one employees out

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Speaker 3: of Thymes River.

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Speaker 8: There's a lot of commonality. So when you think about

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Speaker 8: the principles that Jamie runs by and we believe the

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Speaker 8: same thing. You want to have a fortress balance sheet.

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Speaker 8: You know, look, we don't want a recession, but we're

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Speaker 8: prepared for a recession. If you're running a bank, you

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Speaker 8: better expect that one could happen. I think the discipline

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Speaker 8: about doing the right thing by your customers, by your employees.

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Speaker 8: Probably my favorite story is the outsourcing of their security

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Speaker 8: and then the reinsourcing of their security, because at the

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Speaker 8: end of the day, you want to make sure that

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Speaker 8: your people are connected to the customers.

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Speaker 6: Private equity, I mean private credit. How is that is

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Speaker 6: that a.

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Speaker 7: Competitor to you in your market, because we've heard about

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Speaker 7: it that they're competing with the JP Morgans of the

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Speaker 7: world and taking business from them or maybe substituting for them.

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Speaker 6: Are you seeing in the smaller markets?

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Speaker 8: Absolutely, private credit as a competitor, But interestingly they're also

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Speaker 8: becoming a big client of ours. So in many cases

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Speaker 8: we are doing more and more business with private credit

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Speaker 8: where we're lending along with them, coming into join credit

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Speaker 8: facilities or lending to them either on a deal by

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Speaker 8: deal basis and note on note finance or lending to

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Speaker 8: the fund itself. So I think it's the fastest growth

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Speaker 8: area for US.

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Speaker 3: I gotta ask, I mean, are you I mean, I

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Speaker 3: don't mean to be rude, but I'm going to be rude.

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Speaker 3: Are you guys helping out Jon bon Jovi with a

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Speaker 3: soul kitchen?

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Speaker 8: Times Are of New Jersey, as a matter of fact,

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Speaker 8: did a joint project with jompon Jovi in the Soul kitchen.

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Speaker 8: We built out a new facility a couple of years back.

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Speaker 8: We were one of four donors that helped make that possible.

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Speaker 8: The Ocean First Foundation is made over fifty million dollars

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Speaker 8: worth of grants in our communities and that was one

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Speaker 8: of our special grants a number of years ago.

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Speaker 2: Did he sing a concerts for your mister Ward meeting.

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Speaker 8: We didn't get a concert, but he was a very

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Speaker 8: gracious man.

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Speaker 3: So Chris Mayor, thank you so much. Greatly appreciate it.

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Speaker 3: With the Ocean First team.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live

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Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, just

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Speaker 1: say Alexa Play. Bloomberg eleven thirty said this before.

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Speaker 3: That there's like four hundred and twenty two books out

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Speaker 3: on asset allocation and diversification. In the single read for

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Speaker 3: adults both Global Wall Street and people engaged in the

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Speaker 3: debate is from Sebastian Page. His day job as a

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Speaker 3: tea rope. His night job is to sit in the

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Speaker 3: Orioles dugout. He writes it, I don't like an iPad

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Speaker 3: or whatever, and we celebrate today. His new book is

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Speaker 3: that is out and it's a shift. It's called The

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Speaker 3: Psychology of Leadership. Sebastian Page joins us right now come on,

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Speaker 3: you're doing a Malcolm Gladwell thing here.

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Speaker 2: Why are we doing this? Why are we doing this?

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Speaker 2: Psychology of leadership? Did cal rip Can put you up

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Speaker 2: to this?

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Speaker 9: Tom, that's a great compliment. I think Malcolm Gladwell is

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Speaker 9: a great writer. And by the way, Tom, I don't

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Speaker 9: write on iPads. That's pretty hard if you're a writer.

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Speaker 9: I'm super excited the book is coming out today. I'm

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Speaker 9: basically giving you an exclusive in the broadcast media, and

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Speaker 9: there's a lot in there for investors, Tom, in particular

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Speaker 9: sports psychology, which I find absolutely fascinating. You have to

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Speaker 9: learn about losing, you know, Federer said in a statement

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Speaker 9: to students and commencement. He said, whatever game you play

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Speaker 9: in life, you're going to lose. And so that applies

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Speaker 9: to the psychology of leadership of investing as well. And

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Speaker 9: you know what we do every day, Tom, in financial

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Speaker 9: market differentiate between luck and skills. That's important too.

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Speaker 2: You've got a great idea here.

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Speaker 3: I saw in an old movie David Ogilvy, one of

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Speaker 3: the giants of advertising.

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Speaker 2: There's no statue to committees in parks. You go over

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Speaker 2: to Central Park and there's no statue. Paul Sweeney to

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Speaker 2: a committee.

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Speaker 3: You've got a chapter in there on rethinking team leadership.

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Speaker 3: Are we two team leadership now?

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Speaker 9: Sebastian page, you know, and psychology, there's a lot of research.

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Speaker 9: It's become very popular to talk about introverts and extroverts,

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Speaker 9: and so in an investment committee you can see those dynamics.

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Speaker 9: The research is fascinating because it shows that when people

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Speaker 9: take time to think about their decision on their own

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Speaker 9: and do independent thinking without the influence of others in

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Speaker 9: the room, and then bring those decisions to the table

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Speaker 9: to debate them, the outcome on decision making is generally better.

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Speaker 9: So I find that fascinating. And in our assocation committee,

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Speaker 9: what we do is before the meeting and we have

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Speaker 9: one tomorrow, everyone submits their thinking, their views on tactical

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Speaker 9: ass allocation independently and then we collate them and discuss

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Speaker 9: them as a committee. This way you remove things like

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Speaker 9: group think. Tom But you know, we all say we

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Speaker 9: hate meetings. Meetings are essential. Collaboration is essential. At tiro Price.

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Speaker 9: Our collaboration style is I would say different. We see

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Speaker 9: the exchange of ideas as a source of alpha, so

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Speaker 9: it's super important for us.

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Speaker 3: I would point out the tiro Price invented this folks

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Speaker 3: a few years ago. I mean, I mean they are

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Speaker 3: kind of going to buy side Paul for fractions.

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Speaker 7: Debate Sebastian, how do you think what's the best way

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Speaker 7: to learn leadership skills? I just came from a board

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Speaker 7: meeting at the Business School of Duke last weekend and

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Speaker 7: that was a big, big topic at the board level

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Speaker 7: talking about leadership and how you teach that, how do

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Speaker 7: you think that's best instilled.

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Speaker 9: So in the Psychology of leadership, I talk about several

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Speaker 9: ways in which what we think about leadership is wrong.

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Speaker 9: For example, you think a leader needs to be a

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Speaker 9: great communicator. Well, the higher you go up the organization,

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Speaker 9: the more you need to listen and be a good listener.

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Speaker 9: We think leaders need to be decisive. A lot of

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Speaker 9: really smart, effective leaders I've known knew how to look

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Speaker 9: at decisions where they needed strategic patients. That's often counterintuitive

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Speaker 9: because we all want to be super decisive in investment

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Speaker 9: management too, And so you also think the leader needs

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Speaker 9: to be built consensus and be agreeable. But sometimes as

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Speaker 9: a leader, you're not a leader if you're not making

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Speaker 9: the tough decisions. So you also need to be to

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Speaker 9: be disagreeable. And the last one that's counterintuitive and that

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Speaker 9: I think is a big part of learning or relearning

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Speaker 9: leadership is this idea that the leader is unflappable and

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Speaker 9: there's no stress there. And the reality and sports psychology

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Speaker 9: shows that, and positive psychology too, is that stress increases

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Speaker 9: performance up to a point and leaders have to be

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Speaker 9: able to handle it and be vulnerable about it and

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Speaker 9: to a certain extent, embrace it.

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Speaker 7: So there's a lot of stress out there in the marketplace,

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Speaker 7: in the workplace, whether it's driven by technology, changing political trends.

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Speaker 6: How do leaders kind.

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Speaker 7: Of within their institutions deal with stress and kind of

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Speaker 7: manage that throughout the organization?

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Speaker 9: So we all try to push it out right, We

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Speaker 9: all go around thinking zero stress is where I'm going

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Speaker 9: to get optimal performance. What I've learned from sports psychology.

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Speaker 9: I explain this in the book. It's fascinating stress performance

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Speaker 9: increases with stress up to a point, and there's a

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Speaker 9: point of optimal performance that's not zero stress, whether that's

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Speaker 9: for organizations or individuals, and then after that then you

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Speaker 9: choke and you know, you get the negative effects of it.

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Speaker 3: There's a little stress out there right now, Sebastian page.

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Speaker 3: What should our stress listeners and viewers on YouTube do

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Speaker 3: in these stressful times? Do they radically shift their portfolio?

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Speaker 2: Do they tweak it? Do they go play golf?

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Speaker 3: Or do do they go watch The Last Place Baltimore

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Speaker 3: Orioles sponsored by tiro Price.

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Speaker 9: Thank you for the plug, Dumb. I always appreciate it.

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Speaker 9: And by the way, thank you for supporting my books,

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Speaker 9: my first one in this one as well. You're very

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Speaker 9: gracious to everyone in the industry.

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Speaker 2: Got well, thank you, Sebastian.

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Speaker 3: But you have a movie coming out in the first

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Speaker 3: book right with DiCaprio.

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Speaker 9: I don't know if that movie would sell talk about

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Speaker 9: asset allocation versification. Maybe there's a Hollywood version somewhere, but

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Speaker 9: look the market as it's been sold up. We lost

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Speaker 9: ten and a half percent in two days a couple

443
00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:06,720
Speaker 9: of weeks ago. Those like we've only seen this or

444
00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:09,840
Speaker 9: worse three times since World War Two, so we're going

445
00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:11,200
Speaker 9: through real volatility.

446
00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:11,560
Speaker 8: Tom.

447
00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:13,399
Speaker 9: I know you like to watch at the Vicks. We

448
00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:17,040
Speaker 9: went in above fifty. So we're in a situation where

449
00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:21,359
Speaker 9: in our investment teams typically would be leaning in because

450
00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:23,960
Speaker 9: this is when there's panic and now you want to

451
00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:28,040
Speaker 9: have the opposite reaction and take advantage of higher risk premium.

452
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:31,680
Speaker 9: But I would say right now on our platform, because

453
00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:37,080
Speaker 9: markets are still expensive, and you know, earnings expectations are

454
00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:41,679
Speaker 9: still high at eleven percent, and growth is slowing and

455
00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:45,679
Speaker 9: was slowing into the tariff wars, we're actually closer to

456
00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:48,720
Speaker 9: neutral in most of our portfolios, most of our discussions,

457
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 9: even some investors are looking to sell counter rallies. So

458
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:56,320
Speaker 9: unlike other selloffs for the next couple months, I would

459
00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:57,800
Speaker 9: sell on our platform, we're more.

460
00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:03,080
Speaker 7: Cautious sebastially in terms of leadership. Has it changed over time?

461
00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:04,800
Speaker 7: Does it change over time? I mean when I was

462
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:07,720
Speaker 7: coming up in investment banking, you know, my vice president

463
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:10,119
Speaker 7: told me to you know, work this weekend to do

464
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:10,520
Speaker 7: this deal.

465
00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:13,920
Speaker 6: That's just what I did. Does that still work today?

466
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:18,320
Speaker 9: I think it has changed. It has evolved. The cultures

467
00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:24,200
Speaker 9: across industry, industries but in particular in the investment business

468
00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:27,439
Speaker 9: have evolved, and in my mind, they're in a better place.

469
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:31,280
Speaker 9: I think, Paul. The thing that's missing that we need

470
00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:33,719
Speaker 9: to talk about more is the meaning of what we

471
00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:36,480
Speaker 9: do in financial markets, And to a certain extent, we

472
00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:39,880
Speaker 9: have a little bit of a crisis of meaning if

473
00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:43,320
Speaker 9: you will, with index strategies and so on. To me,

474
00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:45,760
Speaker 9: the meaning is that every day we go to work,

475
00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 9: we try to make money for our clients to give

476
00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 9: them better retirements. We're not solving you know, big cancer.

477
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 9: We're not, but we're going to work to make money

478
00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:58,119
Speaker 9: for our clients, and that's incredibly meaningful. We want to

479
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:01,280
Speaker 9: give them better financial lives. So I think that's the

480
00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:03,679
Speaker 9: next step. I think our culture has evolved in our

481
00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:08,520
Speaker 9: industry in a positive direction, more mutual respect, more building trust.

482
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:10,679
Speaker 9: But the next step is to go back to the

483
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:13,920
Speaker 9: meaning of what we do in financial markets. It's hugely important.

484
00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:15,000
Speaker 9: We don't talk about.

485
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:16,280
Speaker 2: It, right, Sebastian.

486
00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:18,840
Speaker 3: A lot of people are sitting there staring at the

487
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:21,920
Speaker 3: ceiling or whatever in their car a loon, going what

488
00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:24,440
Speaker 3: a god's name do I do with a depleted four

489
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:27,919
Speaker 3: to oh one? K Is it a time to be bold?

490
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:31,240
Speaker 3: I get so much. We had Katie Greifeld and she

491
00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:35,560
Speaker 3: was brilliant on marketed caution. It's like, Okay, people are

492
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:38,600
Speaker 3: scared stiff, let's be cautious. And there are all these

493
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:43,720
Speaker 3: cautious strategies. How does Sebastian Page adapt to the marketing

494
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:45,960
Speaker 3: of fear within the industry.

495
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:48,800
Speaker 9: There's a lot of fear, there's a lot of emotion.

496
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:52,520
Speaker 9: I was on a client webcast last week and we

497
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:56,480
Speaker 9: had about one hundred clients and one person in the

498
00:24:56,560 --> 00:25:00,520
Speaker 9: Q and A wrote, Look, I'm panicking abo my four

499
00:25:00,560 --> 00:25:03,199
Speaker 9: to one K I'm retiring in five years. Should I

500
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 9: sell everything? And I think that's the wrong way to

501
00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 9: look at it. It's tried, you can put it in

502
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:12,800
Speaker 9: a fortune cookie. But those are the moments where you

503
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 9: go back to the basics of staying invested for the

504
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:20,359
Speaker 9: long run, taking a longer run perspective. This is part

505
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:23,880
Speaker 9: of being invested in markets. If you're willing to live

506
00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:28,600
Speaker 9: through shorter term volatility, you get paid over time. And

507
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 9: tom if you're if you're fifty five, you know, or sixty,

508
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:34,919
Speaker 9: I know you're much younger than that, thanks, But if

509
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:37,960
Speaker 9: you're in that spot, you're going to retire, you still

510
00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:40,680
Speaker 9: have thirty years of life, Like, it's not the time

511
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:43,359
Speaker 9: to de risk your entire portfolio. Even if you're close

512
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 9: to retirement. Yes, you're going to shift to generating income,

513
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:51,120
Speaker 9: but you still you still need growth in your portfolio. Uh,

514
00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:54,880
Speaker 9: even even in retirement. So this idea that you've got

515
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:58,439
Speaker 9: to go everything to cash or everything to treasuries. To me,

516
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:00,439
Speaker 9: it's just bad advice.

517
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:04,399
Speaker 3: Sebastian, thank you so much. Congratulations on a book timely

518
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:08,959
Speaker 3: in this time of emotion and crisis, The Psychology of Leadership,

519
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:13,400
Speaker 3: Timeless Principles to improve your leadership of individuals, teams, and yourself.

520
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:15,640
Speaker 3: I'll get that out on Twitter and LinkedIn here Sebastian

521
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:17,800
Speaker 3: page of course at t rope price.

522
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

523
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:26,040
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

524
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live

525
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:32,679
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

526
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:35,280
Speaker 1: say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

527
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:38,720
Speaker 3: Scott Stringer joins us right now, a former New York

528
00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:42,000
Speaker 3: City Controller and a mayor. Kenned is a primary and

529
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:44,760
Speaker 3: there's an election in that. Let's get the primary out

530
00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:47,480
Speaker 3: of the way right now. New York Times writes it up.

531
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:51,960
Speaker 3: The mayor's occupied, the governor's piled into the race, and

532
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 3: the line is everyone's invisible. How does Scott Stringer get

533
00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:58,240
Speaker 3: visible up to the June primary?

534
00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:01,320
Speaker 10: Wait till the mayor race actually started. You know, you

535
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:04,480
Speaker 10: mentioned my cousin Bella Abzug and the mayor's race of

536
00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:08,119
Speaker 10: nineteen seventy seven when Ed Koch was barely a belip

537
00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:11,880
Speaker 10: during that race until two weeks to go. And so

538
00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:14,720
Speaker 10: everyone who thinks these races end in May, they don't.

539
00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:17,040
Speaker 10: They actually end the end of June. And I have

540
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 10: high favorable as a record of fiscal prudence and a

541
00:27:20,880 --> 00:27:23,440
Speaker 10: government record that is unmatching this race. So I'm very

542
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:25,720
Speaker 10: confident going into the next couple of months.

543
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 3: Is your constituency off of Nayler and rest and you

544
00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 3: know the whole thing, is your constituency as organized is

545
00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:36,679
Speaker 3: it was twenty years ago. Is there a machine in

546
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:40,080
Speaker 3: New York City where the Liberal party that progresses can

547
00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:42,600
Speaker 3: get behind one candidate or is it chaos?

548
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:45,840
Speaker 10: Look, I think times have changed in this city. I

549
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 10: think people really want a mayor who knows what he

550
00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 10: or she is doing. They want someone who's confident, they

551
00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:54,399
Speaker 10: want someone with experience. They're tired of the chaos. They

552
00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:57,640
Speaker 10: don't want the current mayor Eric Adams cast, they don't

553
00:27:57,680 --> 00:28:00,200
Speaker 10: want Quomo casts. They want somebody you would have you

554
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 10: build a Blasio. I was controller during that time. Period

555
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 10: I went after. I held up to Blasio accountable three

556
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:08,520
Speaker 10: hundred and sixty four days a year. I gave him

557
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:12,800
Speaker 10: a day off due to Christmas. But I understand city agencies.

558
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 10: I've exposed waste and corruption. I know how to run

559
00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:18,640
Speaker 10: a government in the most competent way, and I think

560
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 10: that's what people want. But they also want to live here,

561
00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:24,640
Speaker 10: to have affordable housing, to have economic opportunity. People who

562
00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:28,520
Speaker 10: come here understand how critical it is to want to

563
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 10: stay here. We got to go back to the compact

564
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:33,560
Speaker 10: of safety, good parks, clean air. This is all what

565
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:35,159
Speaker 10: a mayor has to do, and we need someone to

566
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:36,160
Speaker 10: start focusing on it.

567
00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:38,720
Speaker 6: From your perspective, Scoff, what is the state of the

568
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 6: city today.

569
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 10: I think we're at a crossroads. I don't think people

570
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:45,840
Speaker 10: understand just how corrupt the last four years have been.

571
00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 10: And the first thing the next mayor has to do

572
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:50,880
Speaker 10: is literally reform the government. Bring in the best and

573
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:54,000
Speaker 10: the brightest, bring in people who are competent, who want

574
00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:56,240
Speaker 10: to see a better city. Look, we've got to hire

575
00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:59,000
Speaker 10: three thousand more cops. We have to align policing and

576
00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:01,480
Speaker 10: a mental health insition. We've got to make sure that

577
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 10: a strong mayor can take on Trump when he's going

578
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:08,000
Speaker 10: against New York City. We need somebody who has that experience,

579
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:10,640
Speaker 10: not just pie in the sky promises. And I think

580
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:12,400
Speaker 10: I positioned myself in that way.

581
00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:17,520
Speaker 7: Metropolitan Transit Association, the congestion tax, what's your view there?

582
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 10: Look, I think gets working. I think people want to

583
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 10: pay a little more to move the city.

584
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:26,000
Speaker 2: We have a.

585
00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:31,520
Speaker 10: City government that depends on goods and services how they

586
00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:32,280
Speaker 10: get in and out.

587
00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:32,640
Speaker 2: Of New York.

588
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:35,360
Speaker 10: But look, let's make let's make it clear we have

589
00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:38,120
Speaker 10: work to do. Congestion pricing helps some, but we have

590
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 10: to build out a Fireborough transportation plan, and we have

591
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:43,280
Speaker 10: not done that yet. When I was supporting congestion pricing

592
00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:46,080
Speaker 10: back when Mike Bloomberg was mayor, we always said we

593
00:29:46,120 --> 00:29:48,560
Speaker 10: would look at Queen's and Staten Island and how we

594
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:51,320
Speaker 10: can close those transit deserts. So this is just the

595
00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:54,440
Speaker 10: first step in a long transportation journey for New York City.

596
00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:57,680
Speaker 3: Imagine that mister Bloomberg, of course of Bloomberg LP is

597
00:29:57,720 --> 00:30:02,520
Speaker 3: the founder of this radio station and signs my paycheck, you.

598
00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 2: Know, exactly once a year. Good morning, mister Bloomberg. Scott.

599
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:08,760
Speaker 10: I thought it'd be good to mention him.

600
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:09,600
Speaker 2: Just that's good.

601
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you mentioned him. I got to mention I'm

602
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:14,880
Speaker 3: not in speaking terms with them. But that's a separate issue.

603
00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:21,640
Speaker 3: Scott Stringer. How can liberals be conservative and be anti crime?

604
00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:24,959
Speaker 3: I mean, there's a whole modern theology. The last election

605
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:27,720
Speaker 3: was to me and eldamount of election. Long Island rose

606
00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:30,960
Speaker 3: up and screened we're afraid. How do guys like you

607
00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:37,080
Speaker 3: in a city that's become afraid support NYPD and support

608
00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 3: a tougher crime view.

609
00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:44,360
Speaker 10: Why do you think that people who are on the

610
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:47,280
Speaker 10: liberal side of the equation, or even the conservative side

611
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:50,680
Speaker 10: can't come together and recognize a problem when you see it.

612
00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:53,239
Speaker 2: It's not me, That's what we've got in this now.

613
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:55,240
Speaker 10: But I got to tell you something. It's very easy

614
00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 10: for me to look at the problem and say, hey,

615
00:30:57,840 --> 00:31:00,800
Speaker 10: we are having a trouble retaining the police officers we have.

616
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:03,880
Speaker 10: You know that the young police officers are leaving the

617
00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:07,720
Speaker 10: police force in droves, and they're not retiring from policing.

618
00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 10: They're actually going to Long Island or Mosquito. States like

619
00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:13,760
Speaker 10: Texas and Florida paid and well it's not so much

620
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:16,280
Speaker 10: pay as it is. How do you create a work

621
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 10: life balance. You know, we've gone from six hundred and

622
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:21,840
Speaker 10: fifty million dollars in overtime for policing to one point

623
00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 10: three billion. We have the lowest head count in the

624
00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 10: NYPD in generations. We're down to thirty three thousand cops.

625
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:30,120
Speaker 10: So what should we do. It doesn't matter whether you're

626
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:32,840
Speaker 10: a liberal conservative monitor. We've got to hire more cops.

627
00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:35,920
Speaker 10: That makes financial sense and also from a safety perspective,

628
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:37,960
Speaker 10: makes sense. I want to put a cop on every

629
00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:39,720
Speaker 10: train during in those high crime areas.

630
00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:40,200
Speaker 2: I want to.

631
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 10: Align policing with a mental health initiative because we see

632
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:47,040
Speaker 10: people languishing, suffering, dying on the streets when I take

633
00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:49,760
Speaker 10: my two kids on the subway most mornings to go

634
00:31:49,800 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 10: to school. You know what I see. I see what

635
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:54,560
Speaker 10: I saw in the nineteen seventies, people languishing all the side.

636
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 2: It must admit, well said, and it's actually true.

637
00:31:57,480 --> 00:31:59,640
Speaker 3: Scott's tringer here with the primary in June, in an

638
00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:03,280
Speaker 3: election in November, of course, with his public services family

639
00:32:03,320 --> 00:32:05,800
Speaker 3: service over the years to New York City.

640
00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:09,800
Speaker 6: Pulse reading, Scott, as were you to be elected, what

641
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:11,000
Speaker 6: would be the first one.

642
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:12,160
Speaker 7: Hundred days of your administration?

643
00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:13,120
Speaker 2: What would be the focus.

644
00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 10: We bring in a whole new government, we reform these

645
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:20,239
Speaker 10: city agencies. We have a clarion call for people who

646
00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 10: want to serve this city to come into this government

647
00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:25,280
Speaker 10: and do the people's business. That's the first step. Second,

648
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:27,600
Speaker 10: I want to build the same kind of housing that

649
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 10: was built in a different generation called Mitchellama Housing MITCHELLAMA

650
00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 10: two point zero. I want to take our thousand vacant

651
00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:36,760
Speaker 10: lots in the city and let's put to work for

652
00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:39,959
Speaker 10: affordable housing so families can come here, go to our

653
00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 10: best universities, and stay here in a way that's affordable.

654
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 10: I want to put three thousand cops back on the street.

655
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 10: Want to make sure we align that program with a

656
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:52,560
Speaker 10: mental health initiative. I want to make sure that we

657
00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:55,840
Speaker 10: have people taken the police test again. Eight thousand people

658
00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:57,840
Speaker 10: took the police test. Do you know how many people

659
00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 10: took the sanitation test. There's something wrong here. We're just

660
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 10: not governing anymore. And also I want to make sure

661
00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:08,520
Speaker 10: that we bring back something called quality of life. We'll

662
00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:10,840
Speaker 10: have a Deputy Mayor for Quality of Life, will initiate

663
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:13,960
Speaker 10: quality stat will break down the silos of all these

664
00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:16,600
Speaker 10: city agencies. I've ordered all of them. And I got

665
00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:19,360
Speaker 10: to tell you mental health has to start talking to

666
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:21,400
Speaker 10: small business and vice versa. We got to get a

667
00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:24,920
Speaker 10: handle on this government. You need somebody who actually knows

668
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:27,480
Speaker 10: how to govern. And as borough president for eight years,

669
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:30,520
Speaker 10: as controller for eight years, I know the fiscal situation

670
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:32,600
Speaker 10: in the city like the back of my hand. I'm

671
00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:35,720
Speaker 10: not over promising like others in this campaign. I'm just

672
00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 10: gonna be me and be the life long New York.

673
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:40,480
Speaker 10: I've always been to fix the city taxes.

674
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:43,600
Speaker 7: Pretty much everybody you walk into on the street say,

675
00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:44,880
Speaker 7: my taxes are too high.

676
00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:47,000
Speaker 6: What do you say, what's your tax.

677
00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 10: Well, let's give people some value for those taxes. Let's

678
00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:55,160
Speaker 10: go back to the compact we've always had in this city,

679
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:57,800
Speaker 10: which is if you come here, you pay a little more,

680
00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:00,320
Speaker 10: but you're going to get a clean city, not going

681
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:02,800
Speaker 10: to have rats running around, garbage piled high. I mean

682
00:34:02,800 --> 00:34:05,120
Speaker 10: we've got rats walking upright right now. They've come up

683
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:07,640
Speaker 10: to me on one occasion at night saying, hey, can

684
00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:10,200
Speaker 10: you beat Cormo. I mean, this is a real crisis.

685
00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:12,440
Speaker 10: People say, what am I paying for? What's the value

686
00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:14,799
Speaker 10: of my taxes? And we have to go back to

687
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:18,440
Speaker 10: making people understand that what they get in return is

688
00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 10: a real New York City that they'll never leave.

689
00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 3: What is your policy on immigration and migration and the

690
00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 3: emotion here of people coming in that are new and troubled.

691
00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:33,279
Speaker 10: But we've always had people come, like my grandparents came

692
00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:35,760
Speaker 10: to this city and came to this country. So let's

693
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:39,040
Speaker 10: not start filtering out who comes and who doesn't. Let's

694
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:41,840
Speaker 10: be very smart about this. Look, you bring gang members

695
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:43,799
Speaker 10: in here, get them out. I'd be the first one

696
00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:46,440
Speaker 10: to stand and say, we want you out of here.

697
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:49,759
Speaker 10: No guns, no violence, but for people who flee persecution,

698
00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:52,839
Speaker 10: for people, I mean, come on, we were so much

699
00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:55,680
Speaker 10: better than this, and we can. You know, good government

700
00:34:55,760 --> 00:35:00,239
Speaker 10: means we can absorb people. We can absorb crises have

701
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:01,000
Speaker 10: to be a meltdown.

702
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:02,879
Speaker 2: I gotta ask you one final question, Harry.

703
00:35:03,040 --> 00:35:06,239
Speaker 3: I think it's it's hugely emotional for everyone across this nation.

704
00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:07,719
Speaker 2: There is an.

705
00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:12,319
Speaker 3: Uproar among liberals over a generational shift, as identified by

706
00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:16,719
Speaker 3: Senator Schumer, over to something new. John Ferrell mentioned at

707
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:20,480
Speaker 3: Glenn Young kein of Virginia. The Utah event of Senator

708
00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:23,680
Speaker 3: Sanders the other day helped me here with what the

709
00:35:23,719 --> 00:35:25,719
Speaker 3: new generation of Democrats look like.

710
00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:30,560
Speaker 10: Look, we've always had a new generation of Democrats. You

711
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:33,359
Speaker 10: mentioned the starting at the show, very very smart, right,

712
00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:35,920
Speaker 10: Bella Abzug was a new generation.

713
00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:41,120
Speaker 3: You can't imagine a shock, and this mouthy woman was.

714
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:42,400
Speaker 2: It was the progress.

715
00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:44,240
Speaker 10: And look, I was a twelve year old kid running

716
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:47,319
Speaker 10: around campaigning with her during the Vietnam War. And you

717
00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:49,600
Speaker 10: know what happened. A few years into her term. The

718
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:52,719
Speaker 10: US News and World Report, not the most liberal newspaper

719
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:57,800
Speaker 10: or magazine, named her the number three most competent and

720
00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:03,920
Speaker 10: effective member of Congress. I'm am, I embrace the new generation,

721
00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:07,000
Speaker 10: but right now we need somebody in New York City

722
00:36:07,160 --> 00:36:11,960
Speaker 10: who represents vision, experience and competence. Make no mistake, this

723
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:13,919
Speaker 10: is a moment where we have to rate the ship

724
00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:16,480
Speaker 10: so that the new generation can come in. Right, do

725
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:17,440
Speaker 10: it all generations?

726
00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:20,400
Speaker 3: Someone say you just describe Governor Cuomo. I mean, the

727
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:23,799
Speaker 3: basic idea is he's been around, his father's iconic. You're

728
00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:26,280
Speaker 3: up against Cuomo. What's the biggest stetriment there?

729
00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:29,279
Speaker 10: Look, he's chaotic, and he's not pro New York City,

730
00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:31,799
Speaker 10: and he doesn't like people, and he's running the worst

731
00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:34,879
Speaker 10: kind of campaign. That makes him unelectable in my mind,

732
00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:37,920
Speaker 10: but no one's going to realize that until June first.

733
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:39,640
Speaker 10: And I hope to come back on this show as

734
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:42,600
Speaker 10: your mayor elect and talk to you, especially about the

735
00:36:42,640 --> 00:36:45,760
Speaker 10: history of mayoral politics and what went wrong in his campaign.

736
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:46,880
Speaker 10: But I am not feeling.

737
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 2: Him disgustering to thank you so much for running here

738
00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:51,320
Speaker 2: for mayor.

739
00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:59,760
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

740
00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:02,920
Speaker 1: star It's seven am Eastern on Apple Coarclay and Android

741
00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:05,879
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch

742
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:08,920
Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the

743
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:11,480
Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal for their newspapers.

744
00:37:11,480 --> 00:37:13,279
Speaker 2: To the astronaut, Lisa.

745
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:15,880
Speaker 11: Imagine I could dare to dream.

746
00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:16,560
Speaker 5: Good Mardy, guys.

747
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:18,320
Speaker 11: So yeah, So the first thing I want to start

748
00:37:18,360 --> 00:37:22,080
Speaker 11: with is Netflix, and they have some ambitious goals.

749
00:37:22,360 --> 00:37:23,560
Speaker 5: This was from the Wall Street Journal.

750
00:37:23,560 --> 00:37:26,160
Speaker 11: They're saying that it hopes to achieve a one trillion

751
00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:30,440
Speaker 11: dollar market cap. Currently their cap is almost at about

752
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 11: four hundred billion. They want to also double its revenue

753
00:37:33,200 --> 00:37:36,320
Speaker 11: by twenty thirty. Executives have this goal of tripling Netflix

754
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:39,680
Speaker 11: is operating in come by twenty thirty from ten billion

755
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:42,760
Speaker 11: last year. So this was all in this annual business review,

756
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:44,880
Speaker 11: meaning last last month that some people were in.

757
00:37:45,200 --> 00:37:46,759
Speaker 5: They told this to the Wall Street Journal, so they

758
00:37:46,840 --> 00:37:48,040
Speaker 5: got the insight info on it.

759
00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:50,680
Speaker 2: How do they do this? They raise?

760
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:52,319
Speaker 6: Well, that's what I was going to ask Lisa, how

761
00:37:52,360 --> 00:37:53,440
Speaker 6: did they do it? I mean, I mean, I think

762
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:55,320
Speaker 6: they're going to raise the prices.

763
00:37:55,520 --> 00:37:57,160
Speaker 7: I think they're going to ramp up, continue to ramp

764
00:37:57,239 --> 00:38:01,359
Speaker 7: up their advertising in newsps, gribers, in other parts.

765
00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:05,919
Speaker 2: Of the ads within the video. Yeah, yeah, stards within

766
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:06,440
Speaker 2: the video.

767
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:07,439
Speaker 6: Yeah, you can.

768
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:10,600
Speaker 11: Different tiers, so you can do the cheaper version and

769
00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:13,480
Speaker 11: you'll pay less, but you get the ads with it.

770
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:16,040
Speaker 7: I mean, four hundred billion market caps, stocks of five

771
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:18,120
Speaker 7: percent this year, but up fifty percent.

772
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:20,200
Speaker 2: For Netflix.

773
00:38:20,239 --> 00:38:20,799
Speaker 8: Oh, I don't know.

774
00:38:20,840 --> 00:38:21,799
Speaker 10: I mean, I don't know.

775
00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:22,320
Speaker 2: I don't know.

776
00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:24,239
Speaker 6: Yeah, I don't know.

777
00:38:24,360 --> 00:38:25,279
Speaker 2: I'm today.

778
00:38:25,320 --> 00:38:26,480
Speaker 6: Ye, you just think I'm gonna go.

779
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:28,120
Speaker 5: But eighteen bucks?

780
00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:30,560
Speaker 2: So what would you pay? Would you pay twenty four

781
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:31,200
Speaker 2: ninety nine?

782
00:38:32,000 --> 00:38:32,239
Speaker 12: No?

783
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:33,040
Speaker 6: I don't think.

784
00:38:33,040 --> 00:38:34,719
Speaker 11: I think I would have to go for the commercials,

785
00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:37,000
Speaker 11: even though my kids are like, we don't do commercials.

786
00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:38,719
Speaker 5: I don't care, I don't.

787
00:38:39,520 --> 00:38:44,520
Speaker 11: I mean, So that's that iPhones, right, We've been hearing

788
00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:46,720
Speaker 11: different stories about how much the price of an Apple

789
00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:49,680
Speaker 11: iPhone can go up because of all this tariff uncertainty.

790
00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:53,040
Speaker 11: Business Insider actually went to all these Reddit posts people

791
00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:55,360
Speaker 11: talking about it, and they're saying what they're doing to

792
00:38:55,480 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 11: avoid these pricey upgrades save money on the device. For example,

793
00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:02,640
Speaker 11: some are doing the maintenance now right, they're they're doing

794
00:39:02,680 --> 00:39:05,319
Speaker 11: the upgrade now, But others are keeping up with the

795
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:08,680
Speaker 11: battery life because that's what seems to go first. When

796
00:39:08,719 --> 00:39:10,520
Speaker 11: you have your phone. It's always like, oh, the battery

797
00:39:10,560 --> 00:39:12,480
Speaker 11: is dying. I need an upgrade, And they're saying, no,

798
00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 11: you just need a new battery. So they're saying you

799
00:39:15,000 --> 00:39:17,560
Speaker 11: could do something like that. It's about ninety nine bucks

800
00:39:17,640 --> 00:39:19,760
Speaker 11: or so you can get the new battery.

801
00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:21,040
Speaker 5: But something else they're doing.

802
00:39:21,040 --> 00:39:23,720
Speaker 11: They're saying iPhones come with this limited one year warranty

803
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:24,920
Speaker 11: that you might not even.

804
00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:25,480
Speaker 5: Know that you have.

805
00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:28,840
Speaker 11: So it has it, so go check it out. And

806
00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:31,399
Speaker 11: they also have this Apple Care plus thing. It's about

807
00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:32,319
Speaker 11: fourteen bucks a month.

808
00:39:32,400 --> 00:39:33,239
Speaker 2: I do Apple Care.

809
00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:36,360
Speaker 5: You do do the Apple Care. See, I haven't.

810
00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:36,640
Speaker 6: Even heard of that.

811
00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:39,880
Speaker 11: I have to get it today because the crews, the repairs,

812
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:40,640
Speaker 11: the replacement.

813
00:39:40,719 --> 00:39:41,600
Speaker 5: If you lose it.

814
00:39:41,840 --> 00:39:44,319
Speaker 3: I mean if you get them on the phone, they

815
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:48,560
Speaker 3: treat you differently than just the numbers, is what they would.

816
00:39:48,800 --> 00:39:51,400
Speaker 11: Did you know you're paying fourteen dollars Worset.

817
00:39:51,120 --> 00:39:53,080
Speaker 2: Apple in two weeks. We don't have a clue.

818
00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:53,960
Speaker 10: I don't know.

819
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:56,600
Speaker 6: We have no clue where the economy is.

820
00:39:57,000 --> 00:39:59,560
Speaker 3: You know, the uncertainty of your folks off the chart.

821
00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:01,920
Speaker 3: Good morning, Nick Booth out of Stanford one.

822
00:40:02,239 --> 00:40:03,000
Speaker 6: What do you okay?

823
00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:04,919
Speaker 11: You touched on this a little bit, all the talk

824
00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:08,280
Speaker 11: right Rory McRoy victory the Masters. I have the numbers

825
00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:10,040
Speaker 11: for you because you were talking about the ratings and

826
00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:11,080
Speaker 11: how much people watching it.

827
00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:11,880
Speaker 5: CBS that it.

828
00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:15,760
Speaker 11: Attracted twelve point seven million viewers Sunday. That's a thirty

829
00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:19,600
Speaker 11: three percent increase from last year when Scotti Sheffield he won.

830
00:40:19,719 --> 00:40:22,600
Speaker 11: It's the most watched match up, yes, since twenty.

831
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:27,759
Speaker 5: Eighteen Sheffield he played with them Scheffler Scheffler. Uh so

832
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:29,520
Speaker 5: it was the most watched one, yes, twenty eighteen.

833
00:40:29,640 --> 00:40:31,680
Speaker 11: So I mean this tournament really needs the boost too.

834
00:40:31,680 --> 00:40:34,360
Speaker 11: Then then the article kind of gets into that as well.

835
00:40:36,840 --> 00:40:39,000
Speaker 7: Boy, I don't know what they changed, Yeah, one of

836
00:40:39,000 --> 00:40:41,040
Speaker 7: the other I think it might be the British I'm

837
00:40:41,080 --> 00:40:43,439
Speaker 7: not sure the Open Championship as they call it, not sure,

838
00:40:43,520 --> 00:40:45,759
Speaker 7: but they've got them spaced out pretty much throughout the year.

839
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:47,800
Speaker 2: Okay, is that all you got today?

840
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:48,200
Speaker 5: I did?

841
00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:48,399
Speaker 3: Well?

842
00:40:48,440 --> 00:40:50,919
Speaker 12: You know what you talked about the Blue Origin playing.

843
00:40:51,000 --> 00:40:51,440
Speaker 2: Yeah? How that?

844
00:40:51,880 --> 00:40:52,040
Speaker 6: Well?

845
00:40:52,080 --> 00:40:53,920
Speaker 12: You know what, a lot of people have been giving

846
00:40:54,000 --> 00:40:57,440
Speaker 12: them some backlash, Gail King, Lauren Sanchez, a lot of

847
00:40:57,480 --> 00:41:01,759
Speaker 12: celebrities because they're saying it was commercial lies and it

848
00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:02,680
Speaker 12: is a commercial flight.

849
00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:05,000
Speaker 2: It's for rich people. I get it. I'm not going

850
00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:07,200
Speaker 2: to pay one hundred and fifty thousand Base Bay.

851
00:41:07,560 --> 00:41:09,200
Speaker 6: Why are they there?

852
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:10,719
Speaker 2: Why are they giving him garbage?

853
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:13,400
Speaker 11: I'm serious, because they're just saying that they were sellouts.

854
00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:16,640
Speaker 11: They also have the environmental factor for it. Does you

855
00:41:16,680 --> 00:41:19,840
Speaker 11: know it's no point just going up, going into the environment.

856
00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:23,800
Speaker 3: We upset the desert of Texas when the capsule landed.

857
00:41:24,480 --> 00:41:29,320
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

858
00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:33,720
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

859
00:41:33,840 --> 00:41:37,080
Speaker 1: seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot Com,

860
00:41:37,239 --> 00:41:41,040
Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.

861
00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:44,400
Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube

862
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:46,760
Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal,