WEBVTT - What Herd Immunity Really Means

0:00:00.440 --> 0:00:03.200
<v Speaker 1>Before we get started, we have a favor to ask you.

0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:07.200
<v Speaker 1>With a holiday season approaching, we want to hear what

0:00:07.400 --> 0:00:11.600
<v Speaker 1>COVID dilemmas you're facing. Are you worried about air travel,

0:00:12.160 --> 0:00:15.440
<v Speaker 1>having disagreements over whether relatives should come over for dinner?

0:00:16.360 --> 0:00:19.480
<v Speaker 1>To have us run your questions by an expert, record

0:00:19.560 --> 0:00:23.079
<v Speaker 1>a voicemail by calling six four six three two four

0:00:23.520 --> 0:00:27.240
<v Speaker 1>three four zo We may use your voice on the show.

0:00:28.000 --> 0:00:36.839
<v Speaker 1>And now for today's show, Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson.

0:00:37.600 --> 0:00:40.960
<v Speaker 1>It's day two hundred and twenty three since coronavirus was

0:00:41.040 --> 0:00:46.120
<v Speaker 1>declared a global pandemic. Today's main story. Herd immunity has

0:00:46.159 --> 0:00:49.199
<v Speaker 1>become a buzzy phrase on the right. But the idea

0:00:49.520 --> 0:00:53.440
<v Speaker 1>that allowing the coronavirus to infect more people will offer

0:00:53.479 --> 0:00:56.520
<v Speaker 1>some type of protection from the virus to spread has

0:00:56.560 --> 0:01:02.720
<v Speaker 1>been widely denounced by experts. But first, here's what happened

0:01:02.840 --> 0:01:20.920
<v Speaker 1>in virus news today. Cafe Pacific will cut about fifty

0:01:21.000 --> 0:01:26.000
<v Speaker 1>three hundred jobs and close its regional airline, Cafe Dragon unit.

0:01:27.360 --> 0:01:30.000
<v Speaker 1>It's part of a sweeping restructuring that was triggered by

0:01:30.000 --> 0:01:35.319
<v Speaker 1>the pandemics hit to air travel. In addition, to the layoffs,

0:01:35.640 --> 0:01:40.640
<v Speaker 1>thousands of currently unfilled positions will be eliminated. The entire

0:01:40.760 --> 0:01:46.360
<v Speaker 1>reduction amounts to around of cafe's head count. It's one

0:01:46.360 --> 0:01:50.240
<v Speaker 1>of the largest cutbacks in the aviation sector globally since

0:01:50.280 --> 0:01:57.520
<v Speaker 1>the outbreak started. Germany's new virus cases hit another record.

0:01:58.120 --> 0:02:02.400
<v Speaker 1>The country recorded eight thousand, five hundred and twenty three

0:02:02.760 --> 0:02:08.040
<v Speaker 1>new cases, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. That's

0:02:08.080 --> 0:02:11.720
<v Speaker 1>the most the country has seen since the pandemic began.

0:02:13.480 --> 0:02:17.280
<v Speaker 1>Like other countries in Europe, Germany has been grappling with

0:02:17.400 --> 0:02:21.640
<v Speaker 1>rapidly rising cases in recent weeks. There were also forty

0:02:21.800 --> 0:02:29.000
<v Speaker 1>new fatalities on Tuesday. Finally, an inspection of an Eli Lily,

0:02:29.120 --> 0:02:32.040
<v Speaker 1>New Jersey facility where the company planned to produce its

0:02:32.080 --> 0:02:38.160
<v Speaker 1>antibody therapy, found major quality control problems. In a memo

0:02:38.240 --> 0:02:42.160
<v Speaker 1>from October two, compliance officers at the Food and Drug Administration,

0:02:42.320 --> 0:02:45.480
<v Speaker 1>who conducted a four week site inspection over the summer,

0:02:45.880 --> 0:02:49.680
<v Speaker 1>wrote that it is quote imperative that f D a

0:02:50.120 --> 0:02:55.200
<v Speaker 1>take action. They recommended that the company received a warning letter,

0:02:55.639 --> 0:02:59.799
<v Speaker 1>one of the agency's strongest enforcement measures. According to documents

0:02:59.800 --> 0:03:10.000
<v Speaker 1>for You by Bloomberg News and Now for Today's main story.

0:03:10.800 --> 0:03:14.160
<v Speaker 1>In the US, enthusiasm on the right is building for

0:03:14.320 --> 0:03:18.040
<v Speaker 1>so called herd immunity as much of the public grows

0:03:18.080 --> 0:03:23.520
<v Speaker 1>skeptical of coronavirus vaccines. These developments could dash hopes for

0:03:23.600 --> 0:03:28.680
<v Speaker 1>containing COVID nineteen in the months ahead. Proponents of herd

0:03:28.720 --> 0:03:33.400
<v Speaker 1>immunity say exposing more people to the coronavirus will build

0:03:33.480 --> 0:03:39.200
<v Speaker 1>protection broadly in the population, but experts say that will

0:03:39.240 --> 0:03:43.920
<v Speaker 1>result in many more illnesses and deaths, and that vaccines

0:03:43.960 --> 0:03:48.560
<v Speaker 1>are a safer route to herd immunity. I spoke with

0:03:48.600 --> 0:03:52.560
<v Speaker 1>Emma Court, who reports that the concept gained attraction in

0:03:52.600 --> 0:03:56.560
<v Speaker 1>the White House due to the increasing influence of Trump

0:03:56.680 --> 0:04:01.720
<v Speaker 1>medical advisor Scott Atlas. It would backed this month by

0:04:01.720 --> 0:04:05.040
<v Speaker 1>a group of academics and a treatise titled the Great

0:04:05.240 --> 0:04:14.680
<v Speaker 1>Barrington Declaration. Broadly speaking, when we talk about herd immunity,

0:04:14.840 --> 0:04:18.440
<v Speaker 1>what do we mean. Herd immunity is this idea of

0:04:19.120 --> 0:04:25.479
<v Speaker 1>having widespread enough protection in the population that the viruses

0:04:25.600 --> 0:04:28.880
<v Speaker 1>chain of transmission gets cut off. Truly, we're talking about

0:04:28.880 --> 0:04:33.280
<v Speaker 1>immunity that protects the herd. Right Usually, herd immunity comes

0:04:33.400 --> 0:04:37.120
<v Speaker 1>up and is taught in epidemiology classes in the context

0:04:37.240 --> 0:04:44.839
<v Speaker 1>of widespread vaccination, but it's emerged more recently as something

0:04:44.920 --> 0:04:49.640
<v Speaker 1>that can be achieved through exposing more people to the coronavirus.

0:04:50.440 --> 0:04:53.400
<v Speaker 1>Inherent in this idea of herd immunity, and the reason

0:04:53.480 --> 0:04:57.520
<v Speaker 1>we've heard so much pushback from health experts is that

0:04:57.880 --> 0:05:01.720
<v Speaker 1>by intentionally exposing more people to the coronavirus, we know

0:05:01.880 --> 0:05:05.159
<v Speaker 1>there will be deaths, and people do suffer quite a

0:05:05.200 --> 0:05:08.520
<v Speaker 1>lot from even mild forms of this disease, and it's

0:05:08.560 --> 0:05:13.240
<v Speaker 1>not clear whether even if people survive the coronavirus, they,

0:05:13.640 --> 0:05:16.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, will ever stop dealing with these longer term

0:05:16.360 --> 0:05:20.279
<v Speaker 1>effects that we've been seeing among among patients. So have

0:05:20.480 --> 0:05:24.960
<v Speaker 1>there been any real life examples of communities taking this

0:05:25.400 --> 0:05:30.599
<v Speaker 1>herd immunity approach to COVID nineteen. People often point to

0:05:30.680 --> 0:05:33.680
<v Speaker 1>Sweden as an example you can let the virus kind

0:05:33.680 --> 0:05:38.400
<v Speaker 1>of run free, but even Sweden put restrictions on large gatherings,

0:05:38.440 --> 0:05:41.120
<v Speaker 1>and there's been some reporting lately that the country may

0:05:41.120 --> 0:05:44.680
<v Speaker 1>actually be changing its policies on on the coronavirus um.

0:05:45.000 --> 0:05:47.880
<v Speaker 1>The United Kingdom as well was also accused of pursuing

0:05:47.880 --> 0:05:51.160
<v Speaker 1>her community earlier on in the pandemics, something that officials

0:05:51.160 --> 0:05:57.040
<v Speaker 1>they're denied Ultimately, health officials state we've never intentionally pursued

0:05:57.240 --> 0:06:00.480
<v Speaker 1>her immunity as a strategy, um, and is too much

0:06:00.520 --> 0:06:05.719
<v Speaker 1>on the line now to try it right today without

0:06:05.760 --> 0:06:11.240
<v Speaker 1>a vaccine. What is the theory of achieving herd immunity

0:06:11.440 --> 0:06:15.080
<v Speaker 1>to COVID nineteen, Yeah, you know, to some extent, this

0:06:15.200 --> 0:06:17.640
<v Speaker 1>idea of herd immunity, you know, let the virus do

0:06:17.720 --> 0:06:22.160
<v Speaker 1>what it wants, has been around in popular conversation since

0:06:22.200 --> 0:06:24.480
<v Speaker 1>the start of this pandemic. Right. I think we've all

0:06:24.520 --> 0:06:27.840
<v Speaker 1>heard some iteration of that from folks too, you know,

0:06:28.200 --> 0:06:30.680
<v Speaker 1>think the virus isn't as serious that they should be

0:06:30.720 --> 0:06:32.880
<v Speaker 1>allowed to move around the world freely. So, you know,

0:06:33.040 --> 0:06:36.039
<v Speaker 1>like let people kind of do what they want and

0:06:36.120 --> 0:06:39.080
<v Speaker 1>let the virus kind of spread as a will. It's

0:06:39.160 --> 0:06:42.080
<v Speaker 1>it's been out there, um, but it's being packaged through

0:06:42.080 --> 0:06:46.520
<v Speaker 1>this terminology of herd immunity. And most recently, um, you know,

0:06:46.560 --> 0:06:50.560
<v Speaker 1>earlier this month at a gathering that was hosted by

0:06:50.600 --> 0:06:54.000
<v Speaker 1>a free market think tank in Massachusetts, it was sort

0:06:54.000 --> 0:06:58.240
<v Speaker 1>of put together as this Great Barrington Declaration. The leaders

0:06:58.279 --> 0:07:02.880
<v Speaker 1>of this are are academics, you know, three academics at Harvard, Stanford,

0:07:03.000 --> 0:07:09.920
<v Speaker 1>and Oxford, and they basically came together in Great Barrington, Massachusetts. Instead,

0:07:10.680 --> 0:07:15.520
<v Speaker 1>we can let the virus do what it will as

0:07:15.560 --> 0:07:18.280
<v Speaker 1>long as healthy people are kind of out there moving

0:07:18.280 --> 0:07:21.280
<v Speaker 1>around the world, and we can protect the vulnerable, you know,

0:07:21.360 --> 0:07:26.160
<v Speaker 1>the elderly successfully until enough healthy people have been exposed

0:07:26.160 --> 0:07:29.440
<v Speaker 1>and have this protective immunity, and hopefully, you know, that

0:07:29.640 --> 0:07:33.400
<v Speaker 1>stops the virus from spreading. The timing of this, of course,

0:07:33.480 --> 0:07:38.000
<v Speaker 1>is is all very interesting because theoretically we may have

0:07:38.040 --> 0:07:41.200
<v Speaker 1>a vaccine in a matter of months um and it

0:07:41.280 --> 0:07:43.680
<v Speaker 1>also is coming out here in the US and being

0:07:43.720 --> 0:07:47.080
<v Speaker 1>sort of supported by politicians on the right at a

0:07:47.080 --> 0:07:52.240
<v Speaker 1>time that the president himself just had COVID nineteen and

0:07:52.280 --> 0:07:55.720
<v Speaker 1>there's an election rapidly approaching. So it's not clear to

0:07:55.760 --> 0:07:58.240
<v Speaker 1>me what all of this signifies, but I think it

0:07:58.360 --> 0:08:02.600
<v Speaker 1>is clear from how we've seen politicians at the state level,

0:08:03.080 --> 0:08:07.520
<v Speaker 1>the local level talking about this Great Barrington declaration that

0:08:07.560 --> 0:08:10.440
<v Speaker 1>no matter what the outcome of the presidential election is,

0:08:10.680 --> 0:08:13.480
<v Speaker 1>this idea of herd immunity is going to live on.

0:08:13.560 --> 0:08:16.160
<v Speaker 1>It's going to be used to justify policies at the

0:08:16.160 --> 0:08:18.800
<v Speaker 1>stand local level, even if we have a change in

0:08:18.880 --> 0:08:22.960
<v Speaker 1>the presidential administration. And what's been the response from a

0:08:23.000 --> 0:08:28.880
<v Speaker 1>governmental perspective to this Great Barrington Declaration. This Great Barrington

0:08:28.920 --> 0:08:33.560
<v Speaker 1>Declaration has been highlighted, you know, as prominently as the

0:08:33.600 --> 0:08:37.480
<v Speaker 1>White House. There's a call last week by officials there

0:08:37.840 --> 0:08:41.360
<v Speaker 1>who talked about how the Great Barrington Declaration was, you know,

0:08:41.440 --> 0:08:46.040
<v Speaker 1>aligned with the President's own policies. And there's been a

0:08:46.080 --> 0:08:49.240
<v Speaker 1>lot of talk about a senior medical advisor to the

0:08:49.280 --> 0:08:52.520
<v Speaker 1>President named Scott Atlas, who is a neuro radiologist but

0:08:52.559 --> 0:08:56.280
<v Speaker 1>doesn't have any formal epidemic theological training um and he's

0:08:56.280 --> 0:09:00.240
<v Speaker 1>affiliated with Stanford's Conservative Hoover Institute. You know, this idea

0:09:00.320 --> 0:09:04.040
<v Speaker 1>of herd immunity, which he's a proponent of, has become

0:09:04.240 --> 0:09:08.400
<v Speaker 1>more discussed by the President. The White House has said,

0:09:08.920 --> 0:09:12.920
<v Speaker 1>we are aligned with these principles of the Great Barrington Declaration,

0:09:12.960 --> 0:09:17.199
<v Speaker 1>but we're not proponents of herd immunity. But ultimately, if

0:09:17.200 --> 0:09:20.120
<v Speaker 1>you look at what herd immunity entails or what these

0:09:20.160 --> 0:09:23.360
<v Speaker 1>Great Barrington proponents are talking about, it it's really not

0:09:23.440 --> 0:09:26.040
<v Speaker 1>that dissimilar from what the United States is doing right now.

0:09:26.559 --> 0:09:29.040
<v Speaker 1>So let's just get a little more specific in terms

0:09:29.120 --> 0:09:33.880
<v Speaker 1>of what is in this Great Barrington Declaration, What exactly

0:09:34.000 --> 0:09:38.040
<v Speaker 1>are they calling for in this document. This is kind

0:09:38.080 --> 0:09:40.560
<v Speaker 1>of where the rubber meets the road. So if you

0:09:40.720 --> 0:09:46.320
<v Speaker 1>look at this document, they aren't sayings, stop taking any

0:09:46.400 --> 0:09:50.480
<v Speaker 1>precautionary measures at all. They actually say, you know, you

0:09:50.520 --> 0:09:54.600
<v Speaker 1>should keep taking hygienic precautions like handwashing and staying home

0:09:55.040 --> 0:09:58.080
<v Speaker 1>when you're sick. But we have seen this document be

0:09:58.240 --> 0:10:01.360
<v Speaker 1>espoused by people who who are questioning masks and saying

0:10:01.440 --> 0:10:04.360
<v Speaker 1>masks don't work, masks shouldn't be used. But if you

0:10:04.400 --> 0:10:07.240
<v Speaker 1>look at the Great Barrington document, they actually kind of

0:10:07.360 --> 0:10:10.960
<v Speaker 1>don't get into the details all that much. They say,

0:10:11.360 --> 0:10:13.800
<v Speaker 1>and this is a quote, a comprehensive and detailed list

0:10:13.880 --> 0:10:17.920
<v Speaker 1>of measures, including approaches to multi generational households, can be

0:10:18.000 --> 0:10:21.120
<v Speaker 1>implemented and as well within the scope and capability of

0:10:21.200 --> 0:10:25.600
<v Speaker 1>public health professionals. So they're like, herd immunity, we should

0:10:25.640 --> 0:10:29.160
<v Speaker 1>be talking about it, but I'm not going to get

0:10:29.160 --> 0:10:32.240
<v Speaker 1>too detailed on the policy. And that's important because we

0:10:32.360 --> 0:10:35.599
<v Speaker 1>are many, many months into this pandemic. Who's going to

0:10:35.679 --> 0:10:38.199
<v Speaker 1>come up with this policy on HERD immunity and how

0:10:38.240 --> 0:10:41.040
<v Speaker 1>it's gonna work other than the people who are advocating

0:10:41.040 --> 0:10:44.000
<v Speaker 1>for it, you know, public health professionals don't want to

0:10:44.120 --> 0:10:47.720
<v Speaker 1>pursue her immunity. What they want is for widespread testing

0:10:47.760 --> 0:10:50.120
<v Speaker 1>and tracing and all of the things we've been talking

0:10:50.120 --> 0:10:53.240
<v Speaker 1>about for so long. As you've mentioned, there has been

0:10:53.559 --> 0:10:57.720
<v Speaker 1>really significant criticism of this declaration. I know, one former

0:10:57.720 --> 0:11:01.520
<v Speaker 1>Harvard Medical School professor called it amount to mass murder

0:11:01.520 --> 0:11:04.280
<v Speaker 1>in terms of her immunity. So I was wondering, if

0:11:04.280 --> 0:11:08.520
<v Speaker 1>you might walk us through what makes the ideas proposed

0:11:08.520 --> 0:11:14.280
<v Speaker 1>in this declaration so potentially lethal COVID nineteen experts, mainstream

0:11:14.280 --> 0:11:18.240
<v Speaker 1>public health leaders really come out and condemned this concept.

0:11:18.520 --> 0:11:21.240
<v Speaker 1>You know. The leader of the World Health Organization said

0:11:21.240 --> 0:11:24.959
<v Speaker 1>it was scientifically and ethically problematic and it's never been

0:11:25.000 --> 0:11:28.400
<v Speaker 1>intentionally used as a solution to a pandemic. We had

0:11:28.440 --> 0:11:30.840
<v Speaker 1>a group of eight scientists the other week come out

0:11:31.280 --> 0:11:34.680
<v Speaker 1>and say, you know, this is a dangerous fallacy unsupported

0:11:34.679 --> 0:11:38.200
<v Speaker 1>by scientific evidence in this letter that was published in

0:11:38.520 --> 0:11:41.840
<v Speaker 1>a medical journal called The Lancet and which they actually

0:11:41.960 --> 0:11:46.640
<v Speaker 1>named the John Snow Memorandum. So we're, you know, giving

0:11:46.679 --> 0:11:49.600
<v Speaker 1>big titles to things in this in this scientific debate.

0:11:49.840 --> 0:11:52.480
<v Speaker 1>But I think talking about the science here is sort

0:11:52.520 --> 0:11:55.280
<v Speaker 1>of critical as well. It's it's it's not just a

0:11:55.320 --> 0:11:59.440
<v Speaker 1>moral and ethical dilemma that is being posed by proponents

0:11:59.440 --> 0:12:02.000
<v Speaker 1>of herd imu unity. There's also some gaps in the

0:12:02.080 --> 0:12:06.840
<v Speaker 1>science because we don't totally know that protection from the

0:12:06.960 --> 0:12:10.920
<v Speaker 1>virus is going to be long lasting. In fact, there's

0:12:10.960 --> 0:12:13.760
<v Speaker 1>evidence that antibody levels drop off after a period of

0:12:13.800 --> 0:12:16.360
<v Speaker 1>a few months um, so we don't know that even

0:12:16.559 --> 0:12:20.400
<v Speaker 1>pursuing her immunity is a is a good strategy in

0:12:20.440 --> 0:12:23.560
<v Speaker 1>the big picture, because there are these questions about whether

0:12:23.679 --> 0:12:26.920
<v Speaker 1>protection is even gonna last, and that's something scientists have

0:12:27.000 --> 0:12:32.120
<v Speaker 1>pointed to alongside these other qualms raised with her immunity.

0:12:32.520 --> 0:12:35.440
<v Speaker 1>It's important to be clear that the leading experts we've

0:12:35.440 --> 0:12:39.360
<v Speaker 1>turned to for guidance throughout this pandemic are very much

0:12:39.400 --> 0:12:42.960
<v Speaker 1>against her immunity, and it's being advanced at a time

0:12:42.960 --> 0:12:45.120
<v Speaker 1>when it's more important than ever to be on the

0:12:45.160 --> 0:12:54.120
<v Speaker 1>same page about how to contain the virus that was

0:12:54.160 --> 0:12:57.080
<v Speaker 1>em Core. And that's it for our show today. For

0:12:57.160 --> 0:13:00.280
<v Speaker 1>coverage of the outbreak from one bureaus around the world world,

0:13:00.600 --> 0:13:04.960
<v Speaker 1>visit Bloomberg dot com slash coronavirus and if you like

0:13:05.040 --> 0:13:07.640
<v Speaker 1>the show, please leave us a review and a rating.

0:13:07.840 --> 0:13:11.319
<v Speaker 1>On Apple podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to

0:13:11.400 --> 0:13:15.760
<v Speaker 1>help more listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily

0:13:15.880 --> 0:13:20.439
<v Speaker 1>edition is produced by Tophor foreheads Jordan Gospoure, Magnus Hendrickson

0:13:20.600 --> 0:13:24.800
<v Speaker 1>and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by

0:13:24.840 --> 0:13:29.400
<v Speaker 1>Emma Corp. Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our editors are

0:13:29.480 --> 0:13:33.959
<v Speaker 1>Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head

0:13:33.960 --> 0:14:02.360
<v Speaker 1>of podcasts. Thanks for listening, BLA