1 00:00:00,440 --> 00:00:03,200 Speaker 1: Before we get started, we have a favor to ask you. 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: With a holiday season approaching, we want to hear what 3 00:00:07,400 --> 00:00:11,600 Speaker 1: COVID dilemmas you're facing. Are you worried about air travel, 4 00:00:12,160 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 1: having disagreements over whether relatives should come over for dinner? 5 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:19,480 Speaker 1: To have us run your questions by an expert, record 6 00:00:19,560 --> 00:00:23,079 Speaker 1: a voicemail by calling six four six three two four 7 00:00:23,520 --> 00:00:27,240 Speaker 1: three four zo We may use your voice on the show. 8 00:00:28,000 --> 00:00:36,839 Speaker 1: And now for today's show, Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. 9 00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:40,960 Speaker 1: It's day two hundred and twenty three since coronavirus was 10 00:00:41,040 --> 00:00:46,120 Speaker 1: declared a global pandemic. Today's main story. Herd immunity has 11 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:49,199 Speaker 1: become a buzzy phrase on the right. But the idea 12 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:53,440 Speaker 1: that allowing the coronavirus to infect more people will offer 13 00:00:53,479 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 1: some type of protection from the virus to spread has 14 00:00:56,560 --> 00:01:02,720 Speaker 1: been widely denounced by experts. But first, here's what happened 15 00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:20,920 Speaker 1: in virus news today. Cafe Pacific will cut about fifty 16 00:01:21,000 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 1: three hundred jobs and close its regional airline, Cafe Dragon unit. 17 00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 1: It's part of a sweeping restructuring that was triggered by 18 00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:35,319 Speaker 1: the pandemics hit to air travel. In addition, to the layoffs, 19 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 1: thousands of currently unfilled positions will be eliminated. The entire 20 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:46,360 Speaker 1: reduction amounts to around of cafe's head count. It's one 21 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:50,240 Speaker 1: of the largest cutbacks in the aviation sector globally since 22 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:57,520 Speaker 1: the outbreak started. Germany's new virus cases hit another record. 23 00:01:58,120 --> 00:02:02,400 Speaker 1: The country recorded eight thousand, five hundred and twenty three 24 00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 1: new cases, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. That's 25 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:11,720 Speaker 1: the most the country has seen since the pandemic began. 26 00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:17,280 Speaker 1: Like other countries in Europe, Germany has been grappling with 27 00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:21,640 Speaker 1: rapidly rising cases in recent weeks. There were also forty 28 00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:29,000 Speaker 1: new fatalities on Tuesday. Finally, an inspection of an Eli Lily, 29 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 1: New Jersey facility where the company planned to produce its 30 00:02:32,080 --> 00:02:38,160 Speaker 1: antibody therapy, found major quality control problems. In a memo 31 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:42,160 Speaker 1: from October two, compliance officers at the Food and Drug Administration, 32 00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:45,480 Speaker 1: who conducted a four week site inspection over the summer, 33 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:49,680 Speaker 1: wrote that it is quote imperative that f D a 34 00:02:50,120 --> 00:02:55,200 Speaker 1: take action. They recommended that the company received a warning letter, 35 00:02:55,639 --> 00:02:59,799 Speaker 1: one of the agency's strongest enforcement measures. According to documents 36 00:02:59,800 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 1: for You by Bloomberg News and Now for Today's main story. 37 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 1: In the US, enthusiasm on the right is building for 38 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:18,040 Speaker 1: so called herd immunity as much of the public grows 39 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:23,520 Speaker 1: skeptical of coronavirus vaccines. These developments could dash hopes for 40 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:28,680 Speaker 1: containing COVID nineteen in the months ahead. Proponents of herd 41 00:03:28,720 --> 00:03:33,400 Speaker 1: immunity say exposing more people to the coronavirus will build 42 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:39,200 Speaker 1: protection broadly in the population, but experts say that will 43 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:43,920 Speaker 1: result in many more illnesses and deaths, and that vaccines 44 00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:48,560 Speaker 1: are a safer route to herd immunity. I spoke with 45 00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:52,560 Speaker 1: Emma Court, who reports that the concept gained attraction in 46 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:56,560 Speaker 1: the White House due to the increasing influence of Trump 47 00:03:56,680 --> 00:04:01,720 Speaker 1: medical advisor Scott Atlas. It would backed this month by 48 00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:05,040 Speaker 1: a group of academics and a treatise titled the Great 49 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:14,680 Speaker 1: Barrington Declaration. Broadly speaking, when we talk about herd immunity, 50 00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:18,440 Speaker 1: what do we mean. Herd immunity is this idea of 51 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:25,479 Speaker 1: having widespread enough protection in the population that the viruses 52 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 1: chain of transmission gets cut off. Truly, we're talking about 53 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:33,280 Speaker 1: immunity that protects the herd. Right Usually, herd immunity comes 54 00:04:33,400 --> 00:04:37,120 Speaker 1: up and is taught in epidemiology classes in the context 55 00:04:37,240 --> 00:04:44,839 Speaker 1: of widespread vaccination, but it's emerged more recently as something 56 00:04:44,920 --> 00:04:49,640 Speaker 1: that can be achieved through exposing more people to the coronavirus. 57 00:04:50,440 --> 00:04:53,400 Speaker 1: Inherent in this idea of herd immunity, and the reason 58 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:57,520 Speaker 1: we've heard so much pushback from health experts is that 59 00:04:57,880 --> 00:05:01,720 Speaker 1: by intentionally exposing more people to the coronavirus, we know 60 00:05:01,880 --> 00:05:05,159 Speaker 1: there will be deaths, and people do suffer quite a 61 00:05:05,200 --> 00:05:08,520 Speaker 1: lot from even mild forms of this disease, and it's 62 00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:13,240 Speaker 1: not clear whether even if people survive the coronavirus, they, 63 00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:16,320 Speaker 1: you know, will ever stop dealing with these longer term 64 00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:20,279 Speaker 1: effects that we've been seeing among among patients. So have 65 00:05:20,480 --> 00:05:24,960 Speaker 1: there been any real life examples of communities taking this 66 00:05:25,400 --> 00:05:30,599 Speaker 1: herd immunity approach to COVID nineteen. People often point to 67 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:33,680 Speaker 1: Sweden as an example you can let the virus kind 68 00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:38,400 Speaker 1: of run free, but even Sweden put restrictions on large gatherings, 69 00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:41,120 Speaker 1: and there's been some reporting lately that the country may 70 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:44,680 Speaker 1: actually be changing its policies on on the coronavirus um. 71 00:05:45,000 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 1: The United Kingdom as well was also accused of pursuing 72 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:51,160 Speaker 1: her community earlier on in the pandemics, something that officials 73 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:57,040 Speaker 1: they're denied Ultimately, health officials state we've never intentionally pursued 74 00:05:57,240 --> 00:06:00,480 Speaker 1: her immunity as a strategy, um, and is too much 75 00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:05,719 Speaker 1: on the line now to try it right today without 76 00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:11,240 Speaker 1: a vaccine. What is the theory of achieving herd immunity 77 00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:15,080 Speaker 1: to COVID nineteen, Yeah, you know, to some extent, this 78 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:17,640 Speaker 1: idea of herd immunity, you know, let the virus do 79 00:06:17,720 --> 00:06:22,160 Speaker 1: what it wants, has been around in popular conversation since 80 00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:24,480 Speaker 1: the start of this pandemic. Right. I think we've all 81 00:06:24,520 --> 00:06:27,840 Speaker 1: heard some iteration of that from folks too, you know, 82 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:30,680 Speaker 1: think the virus isn't as serious that they should be 83 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:32,880 Speaker 1: allowed to move around the world freely. So, you know, 84 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:36,039 Speaker 1: like let people kind of do what they want and 85 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:39,080 Speaker 1: let the virus kind of spread as a will. It's 86 00:06:39,160 --> 00:06:42,080 Speaker 1: it's been out there, um, but it's being packaged through 87 00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:46,520 Speaker 1: this terminology of herd immunity. And most recently, um, you know, 88 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:50,560 Speaker 1: earlier this month at a gathering that was hosted by 89 00:06:50,600 --> 00:06:54,000 Speaker 1: a free market think tank in Massachusetts, it was sort 90 00:06:54,000 --> 00:06:58,240 Speaker 1: of put together as this Great Barrington Declaration. The leaders 91 00:06:58,279 --> 00:07:02,880 Speaker 1: of this are are academics, you know, three academics at Harvard, Stanford, 92 00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:09,920 Speaker 1: and Oxford, and they basically came together in Great Barrington, Massachusetts. Instead, 93 00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 1: we can let the virus do what it will as 94 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:18,280 Speaker 1: long as healthy people are kind of out there moving 95 00:07:18,280 --> 00:07:21,280 Speaker 1: around the world, and we can protect the vulnerable, you know, 96 00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:26,160 Speaker 1: the elderly successfully until enough healthy people have been exposed 97 00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 1: and have this protective immunity, and hopefully, you know, that 98 00:07:29,640 --> 00:07:33,400 Speaker 1: stops the virus from spreading. The timing of this, of course, 99 00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:38,000 Speaker 1: is is all very interesting because theoretically we may have 100 00:07:38,040 --> 00:07:41,200 Speaker 1: a vaccine in a matter of months um and it 101 00:07:41,280 --> 00:07:43,680 Speaker 1: also is coming out here in the US and being 102 00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:47,080 Speaker 1: sort of supported by politicians on the right at a 103 00:07:47,080 --> 00:07:52,240 Speaker 1: time that the president himself just had COVID nineteen and 104 00:07:52,280 --> 00:07:55,720 Speaker 1: there's an election rapidly approaching. So it's not clear to 105 00:07:55,760 --> 00:07:58,240 Speaker 1: me what all of this signifies, but I think it 106 00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 1: is clear from how we've seen politicians at the state level, 107 00:08:03,080 --> 00:08:07,520 Speaker 1: the local level talking about this Great Barrington declaration that 108 00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 1: no matter what the outcome of the presidential election is, 109 00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:13,480 Speaker 1: this idea of herd immunity is going to live on. 110 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:16,160 Speaker 1: It's going to be used to justify policies at the 111 00:08:16,160 --> 00:08:18,800 Speaker 1: stand local level, even if we have a change in 112 00:08:18,880 --> 00:08:22,960 Speaker 1: the presidential administration. And what's been the response from a 113 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:28,880 Speaker 1: governmental perspective to this Great Barrington Declaration. This Great Barrington 114 00:08:28,920 --> 00:08:33,560 Speaker 1: Declaration has been highlighted, you know, as prominently as the 115 00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:37,480 Speaker 1: White House. There's a call last week by officials there 116 00:08:37,840 --> 00:08:41,360 Speaker 1: who talked about how the Great Barrington Declaration was, you know, 117 00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:46,040 Speaker 1: aligned with the President's own policies. And there's been a 118 00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:49,240 Speaker 1: lot of talk about a senior medical advisor to the 119 00:08:49,280 --> 00:08:52,520 Speaker 1: President named Scott Atlas, who is a neuro radiologist but 120 00:08:52,559 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 1: doesn't have any formal epidemic theological training um and he's 121 00:08:56,280 --> 00:09:00,240 Speaker 1: affiliated with Stanford's Conservative Hoover Institute. You know, this idea 122 00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:04,040 Speaker 1: of herd immunity, which he's a proponent of, has become 123 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:08,400 Speaker 1: more discussed by the President. The White House has said, 124 00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:12,920 Speaker 1: we are aligned with these principles of the Great Barrington Declaration, 125 00:09:12,960 --> 00:09:17,199 Speaker 1: but we're not proponents of herd immunity. But ultimately, if 126 00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:20,120 Speaker 1: you look at what herd immunity entails or what these 127 00:09:20,160 --> 00:09:23,360 Speaker 1: Great Barrington proponents are talking about, it it's really not 128 00:09:23,440 --> 00:09:26,040 Speaker 1: that dissimilar from what the United States is doing right now. 129 00:09:26,559 --> 00:09:29,040 Speaker 1: So let's just get a little more specific in terms 130 00:09:29,120 --> 00:09:33,880 Speaker 1: of what is in this Great Barrington Declaration, What exactly 131 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:38,040 Speaker 1: are they calling for in this document. This is kind 132 00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:40,560 Speaker 1: of where the rubber meets the road. So if you 133 00:09:40,720 --> 00:09:46,320 Speaker 1: look at this document, they aren't sayings, stop taking any 134 00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:50,480 Speaker 1: precautionary measures at all. They actually say, you know, you 135 00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:54,600 Speaker 1: should keep taking hygienic precautions like handwashing and staying home 136 00:09:55,040 --> 00:09:58,080 Speaker 1: when you're sick. But we have seen this document be 137 00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:01,360 Speaker 1: espoused by people who who are questioning masks and saying 138 00:10:01,440 --> 00:10:04,360 Speaker 1: masks don't work, masks shouldn't be used. But if you 139 00:10:04,400 --> 00:10:07,240 Speaker 1: look at the Great Barrington document, they actually kind of 140 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:10,960 Speaker 1: don't get into the details all that much. They say, 141 00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:13,800 Speaker 1: and this is a quote, a comprehensive and detailed list 142 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:17,920 Speaker 1: of measures, including approaches to multi generational households, can be 143 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:21,120 Speaker 1: implemented and as well within the scope and capability of 144 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:25,600 Speaker 1: public health professionals. So they're like, herd immunity, we should 145 00:10:25,640 --> 00:10:29,160 Speaker 1: be talking about it, but I'm not going to get 146 00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:32,240 Speaker 1: too detailed on the policy. And that's important because we 147 00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:35,599 Speaker 1: are many, many months into this pandemic. Who's going to 148 00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:38,199 Speaker 1: come up with this policy on HERD immunity and how 149 00:10:38,240 --> 00:10:41,040 Speaker 1: it's gonna work other than the people who are advocating 150 00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:44,000 Speaker 1: for it, you know, public health professionals don't want to 151 00:10:44,120 --> 00:10:47,720 Speaker 1: pursue her immunity. What they want is for widespread testing 152 00:10:47,760 --> 00:10:50,120 Speaker 1: and tracing and all of the things we've been talking 153 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:53,240 Speaker 1: about for so long. As you've mentioned, there has been 154 00:10:53,559 --> 00:10:57,720 Speaker 1: really significant criticism of this declaration. I know, one former 155 00:10:57,720 --> 00:11:01,520 Speaker 1: Harvard Medical School professor called it amount to mass murder 156 00:11:01,520 --> 00:11:04,280 Speaker 1: in terms of her immunity. So I was wondering, if 157 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:08,520 Speaker 1: you might walk us through what makes the ideas proposed 158 00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:14,280 Speaker 1: in this declaration so potentially lethal COVID nineteen experts, mainstream 159 00:11:14,280 --> 00:11:18,240 Speaker 1: public health leaders really come out and condemned this concept. 160 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:21,240 Speaker 1: You know. The leader of the World Health Organization said 161 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:24,959 Speaker 1: it was scientifically and ethically problematic and it's never been 162 00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:28,400 Speaker 1: intentionally used as a solution to a pandemic. We had 163 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:30,840 Speaker 1: a group of eight scientists the other week come out 164 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:34,680 Speaker 1: and say, you know, this is a dangerous fallacy unsupported 165 00:11:34,679 --> 00:11:38,200 Speaker 1: by scientific evidence in this letter that was published in 166 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:41,840 Speaker 1: a medical journal called The Lancet and which they actually 167 00:11:41,960 --> 00:11:46,640 Speaker 1: named the John Snow Memorandum. So we're, you know, giving 168 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:49,600 Speaker 1: big titles to things in this in this scientific debate. 169 00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:52,480 Speaker 1: But I think talking about the science here is sort 170 00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:55,280 Speaker 1: of critical as well. It's it's it's not just a 171 00:11:55,320 --> 00:11:59,440 Speaker 1: moral and ethical dilemma that is being posed by proponents 172 00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:02,000 Speaker 1: of herd imu unity. There's also some gaps in the 173 00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:06,840 Speaker 1: science because we don't totally know that protection from the 174 00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 1: virus is going to be long lasting. In fact, there's 175 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:13,760 Speaker 1: evidence that antibody levels drop off after a period of 176 00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:16,360 Speaker 1: a few months um, so we don't know that even 177 00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:20,400 Speaker 1: pursuing her immunity is a is a good strategy in 178 00:12:20,440 --> 00:12:23,560 Speaker 1: the big picture, because there are these questions about whether 179 00:12:23,679 --> 00:12:26,920 Speaker 1: protection is even gonna last, and that's something scientists have 180 00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:32,120 Speaker 1: pointed to alongside these other qualms raised with her immunity. 181 00:12:32,520 --> 00:12:35,440 Speaker 1: It's important to be clear that the leading experts we've 182 00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:39,360 Speaker 1: turned to for guidance throughout this pandemic are very much 183 00:12:39,400 --> 00:12:42,960 Speaker 1: against her immunity, and it's being advanced at a time 184 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:45,120 Speaker 1: when it's more important than ever to be on the 185 00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:54,120 Speaker 1: same page about how to contain the virus that was 186 00:12:54,160 --> 00:12:57,080 Speaker 1: em Core. And that's it for our show today. For 187 00:12:57,160 --> 00:13:00,280 Speaker 1: coverage of the outbreak from one bureaus around the world world, 188 00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:04,960 Speaker 1: visit Bloomberg dot com slash coronavirus and if you like 189 00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:07,640 Speaker 1: the show, please leave us a review and a rating. 190 00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:11,319 Speaker 1: On Apple podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to 191 00:13:11,400 --> 00:13:15,760 Speaker 1: help more listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily 192 00:13:15,880 --> 00:13:20,439 Speaker 1: edition is produced by Tophor foreheads Jordan Gospoure, Magnus Hendrickson 193 00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:24,800 Speaker 1: and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by 194 00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:29,400 Speaker 1: Emma Corp. Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our editors are 195 00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:33,959 Speaker 1: Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head 196 00:13:33,960 --> 00:14:02,360 Speaker 1: of podcasts. Thanks for listening, BLA