1
00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:02,320
Speaker 1: Hey, guys, thanks for listening to Breaking Points with Crystal

2
00:00:02,360 --> 00:00:04,240
Speaker 1: and Sager. We're going to be totally upfront with you.

3
00:00:04,360 --> 00:00:07,200
Speaker 1: We took a big risk going independent to make this work.

4
00:00:07,320 --> 00:00:11,880
Speaker 1: We need your support to beat the corporate media CNN, Fox, MSNBC.

5
00:00:12,200 --> 00:00:15,760
Speaker 1: They are ripping this country apart. They are making millions

6
00:00:15,760 --> 00:00:18,360
Speaker 1: of dollars doing it to help support our mission of

7
00:00:18,440 --> 00:00:20,720
Speaker 1: making all of us hate each other, less hate the

8
00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:24,000
Speaker 1: corrupt ruling class more support the show. Become a Breaking

9
00:00:24,000 --> 00:00:26,560
Speaker 1: Points Premium Member today, where you get to watch and

10
00:00:26,680 --> 00:00:29,640
Speaker 1: listen to the entire show ad free and uncut, an

11
00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:32,440
Speaker 1: hour early before everyone else. You get to hear our

12
00:00:32,479 --> 00:00:35,360
Speaker 1: reactions to each other's monologues. You get to participate and

13
00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:37,960
Speaker 1: weekly ask me any things, and you don't need to

14
00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:41,040
Speaker 1: hear our annoying voices pitching you like I am right now?

15
00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:43,720
Speaker 1: So what are you waiting for? Go to Breakingpoints dot com.

16
00:00:43,720 --> 00:00:46,199
Speaker 1: Become a Premium member today, which is available in the

17
00:00:46,240 --> 00:01:06,640
Speaker 1: show notes. Enjoy the show, guys, Good morning, everybody, Happy Monday.

18
00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:08,600
Speaker 1: We have an amazing show for everybody today. What do

19
00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:12,520
Speaker 1: we have, Crystal, indeed we do. We have so much

20
00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:16,759
Speaker 1: to get to this morning. Huge developments. I don't think

21
00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:19,280
Speaker 1: it's an understatement to say that today is going to

22
00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:24,640
Speaker 1: be an absolutely critical day. That's right, militarily, economically, and

23
00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:29,120
Speaker 1: diplomatically as it goes with Russia and Ukraine. Also, though

24
00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:31,399
Speaker 1: before I forget, I wanted to remind you guys, because

25
00:01:31,440 --> 00:01:33,440
Speaker 1: we are very excited about this, we are doing live

26
00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:37,680
Speaker 1: coverage of Biden's State of the Union tomorrow night. It's

27
00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:40,920
Speaker 1: going to be Me Sager, Marshall Koslov, and Kyle Kolinski.

28
00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:42,960
Speaker 1: You've got this nice little graphic for you. Pre show

29
00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:45,160
Speaker 1: is going to start at eight. We will live stream

30
00:01:45,160 --> 00:01:46,960
Speaker 1: State at the Union. Then we will come back and

31
00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:50,040
Speaker 1: do a post show as well, So please join us

32
00:01:50,040 --> 00:01:52,160
Speaker 1: here on this channel for that coverage. We're going to

33
00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:55,120
Speaker 1: have a couple of special guests for you as well.

34
00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:59,400
Speaker 1: But let's get right to everything that is breaking this morning,

35
00:01:59,560 --> 00:02:01,680
Speaker 1: and I think before we get to the details, let's

36
00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:05,720
Speaker 1: just say top line, both on the political front, economic front,

37
00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:08,760
Speaker 1: and the military front, this is gone pretty poorly for

38
00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:14,200
Speaker 1: Russia y. But that actually creates a very dangerous situation.

39
00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:17,520
Speaker 1: There's a concept called gambling for resurrection where when we

40
00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:20,000
Speaker 1: have you have someone like this who is backed into

41
00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:24,079
Speaker 1: a corner, it only raises the stakes of the tactics

42
00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:27,200
Speaker 1: that they could employ both on the battlefield also in

43
00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:29,640
Speaker 1: terms of cyber attacks to hit here. Also, we're going

44
00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:32,880
Speaker 1: to get to an elevated nuclear threat coming from Putin,

45
00:02:32,880 --> 00:02:35,480
Speaker 1: which might be the most significant thing to focus on today.

46
00:02:35,960 --> 00:02:38,240
Speaker 1: But let's start with what we know of what is

47
00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:42,280
Speaker 1: happening militarily on the ground in Ukraine. Of everything we're

48
00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:44,760
Speaker 1: going to bring you today, these are the reports that

49
00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:47,440
Speaker 1: you should be a little bit wary of, just because

50
00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:49,679
Speaker 1: it is very hard to get good information out of

51
00:02:49,720 --> 00:02:52,079
Speaker 1: the middle of the war. You also have two sides

52
00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:55,120
Speaker 1: that are interested in propaganda winds, and I would say

53
00:02:55,160 --> 00:02:58,200
Speaker 1: the Ukrainian and their allied sides have a bit of

54
00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:00,880
Speaker 1: a propaganda advantage in that the Russian sold this as

55
00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:04,080
Speaker 1: a peacekeeping mission for their people, So it makes it

56
00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:06,600
Speaker 1: harder for them to go out and tout battlefield wins

57
00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:08,720
Speaker 1: when they're supposed to be there just keeping the peace.

58
00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:11,160
Speaker 1: All right, let's throw that first tweet there up on

59
00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:15,200
Speaker 1: the screen. We got some information yesterday from the Mayor

60
00:03:15,320 --> 00:03:19,400
Speaker 1: of Kiev that Kiv was surrounded and a siege had begun.

61
00:03:20,080 --> 00:03:24,080
Speaker 1: That information has now been walked back. However, the best

62
00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:28,520
Speaker 1: we can tell is their satellite imagery of Russian forces

63
00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:33,440
Speaker 1: massing three miles long outside of Kiev, about thirty kilometers

64
00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:37,360
Speaker 1: twenty kilometers outside of the city. Those forces have been

65
00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:40,480
Speaker 1: attempting to advance. So far the Ukrainian military has been

66
00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:43,040
Speaker 1: able to push them back. There also reports that they

67
00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:47,160
Speaker 1: had sent reconnaissance teams into the city that the Ukrainians

68
00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:50,000
Speaker 1: were also able to intercept. Let's go ahead and put

69
00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:53,120
Speaker 1: this next piece up on the screen. So this is

70
00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:57,720
Speaker 1: a map of Ukraine that shows where Russian forces are.

71
00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:00,320
Speaker 1: You have down in the south of St Charding in

72
00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:04,720
Speaker 1: the south and going up counterclockwise. Malitopaul was taken by

73
00:04:04,800 --> 00:04:08,200
Speaker 1: the Russians, but progress there to the east to Mariopaul

74
00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:11,440
Speaker 1: has been halted. There is some reporting that is because

75
00:04:11,480 --> 00:04:14,680
Speaker 1: of supply line issues. There's reports on the ground of

76
00:04:14,720 --> 00:04:17,280
Speaker 1: Russians who are basically stranded who run out of fuel

77
00:04:17,640 --> 00:04:21,080
Speaker 1: that they didn't effectively plan in order to make sure

78
00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:24,119
Speaker 1: that they had their troops supplied and provisioned and gassed

79
00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:26,960
Speaker 1: up so that they could continue this advance. You also

80
00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:32,480
Speaker 1: have reports that Russian forces were expelled from Ukraine's second

81
00:04:32,560 --> 00:04:36,120
Speaker 1: largest city, that is Kharkiv, but the very latest this

82
00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:39,680
Speaker 1: morning is that. And this gets to the escalating tactics

83
00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:43,760
Speaker 1: that you could see here. Russians have escalated in Kharkiv,

84
00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:47,440
Speaker 1: and there are reports this morning of massive rocket attacks

85
00:04:47,640 --> 00:04:51,680
Speaker 1: and potential significant civilian loss of life. And that is

86
00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:54,040
Speaker 1: part of the story that we're going to be watching here,

87
00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:58,440
Speaker 1: is that Russians, their tactics have been horrific, but they

88
00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:01,560
Speaker 1: have not thrown everything at this that they could in

89
00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:05,159
Speaker 1: an attempt to perhaps limit the amount of civilian loss

90
00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:07,839
Speaker 1: of life. Well, with them stymied on a couple of

91
00:05:07,839 --> 00:05:11,120
Speaker 1: different fronts militarily, and this having not gone as quickly

92
00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:14,640
Speaker 1: and as easily as Putin thought, that raises the prospect

93
00:05:14,760 --> 00:05:19,200
Speaker 1: of more aggressive, more deadly weapons and techniques, and that

94
00:05:19,279 --> 00:05:23,119
Speaker 1: is a potential sign of what's happening in Kharkiv right now. Also,

95
00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:25,160
Speaker 1: if we could put that map backup on the screen

96
00:05:25,320 --> 00:05:29,479
Speaker 1: a two backup for one more minute with regards to Kiev,

97
00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:33,400
Speaker 1: where so far Ukrainians still hold the city, which is

98
00:05:33,440 --> 00:05:36,960
Speaker 1: a remarkable accomplishment in and of itself. Analysts are saying

99
00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:39,960
Speaker 1: that Putin expect Kiev to fall relatively quickly. That has

100
00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:42,960
Speaker 1: not happened. You can see though you've got the forces

101
00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:46,840
Speaker 1: advancing from the north. You also though, have forces closing

102
00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:50,760
Speaker 1: in from the east, which again creates a very dangerous

103
00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:53,960
Speaker 1: and precarious situation from Kiev. And just to give you

104
00:05:54,040 --> 00:05:55,839
Speaker 1: a sense, guys, I mean it's one thing to look

105
00:05:55,839 --> 00:06:00,479
Speaker 1: at this on a map makes it kind of sanitized hell.

106
00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:03,440
Speaker 1: And we have video that we can show you of

107
00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:07,239
Speaker 1: an apartment building in Kiev being hit by a missile

108
00:06:07,279 --> 00:06:09,120
Speaker 1: and what this looks like on the ground. Let's go

109
00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:11,560
Speaker 1: ahead and put this up here. I mean, these are

110
00:06:11,960 --> 00:06:15,120
Speaker 1: this is that's people's homes, you know, this is the

111
00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:20,279
Speaker 1: place people live. This is where they're raising their children.

112
00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:23,760
Speaker 1: And to wake up in a war torn city like this,

113
00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:26,800
Speaker 1: people hunkered underground, you know, it's just it is a

114
00:06:26,839 --> 00:06:29,760
Speaker 1: really horrific situation. Yeah, it's almost like out of a movie.

115
00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:31,440
Speaker 1: I mean you look at these things and you see

116
00:06:31,839 --> 00:06:35,919
Speaker 1: the civilians in Kiev like sitting in the subway system,

117
00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:39,640
Speaker 1: almost like in the Blitz during London in London from

118
00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:41,680
Speaker 1: World War Two. I mean, there's a million videos we

119
00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:43,279
Speaker 1: could have shown you. But part of the reason why

120
00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:45,360
Speaker 1: we always have to be careful, skeptical and all that

121
00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:47,320
Speaker 1: is that a lot of stuff is getting passed around

122
00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:50,240
Speaker 1: online misattributed and all that. So please, I'm making a

123
00:06:50,279 --> 00:06:53,520
Speaker 1: personal I'm imploring everyone in order to exercise some restraint,

124
00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:56,200
Speaker 1: be careful about what you're sharing and all of these things,

125
00:06:56,240 --> 00:06:58,400
Speaker 1: because you know these things will tug at your heartstrings.

126
00:06:58,440 --> 00:07:00,640
Speaker 1: That video even we can't even to tell you whose

127
00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:03,680
Speaker 1: it was. You know, none of these things are verifiable.

128
00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:07,240
Speaker 1: But to the broader point, this is the most dangerous

129
00:07:07,440 --> 00:07:10,640
Speaker 1: part of the war, possibly because whenever you have a

130
00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:13,560
Speaker 1: situation where by all accounts in Russian state media actually

131
00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:16,840
Speaker 1: broadcasted that they could take Ukraine in eleven minutes or

132
00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:19,760
Speaker 1: something like that, they said this only two months ago. Well,

133
00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:22,680
Speaker 1: now you have several days. We have no idea how

134
00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:25,120
Speaker 1: many people are dead. You know, the Ukrainians obviously want

135
00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:27,640
Speaker 1: to put out an inflated number. They're claiming up to

136
00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:30,560
Speaker 1: like forty five hundred troops. Look, I mean that's probably

137
00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:33,680
Speaker 1: not true, but if it is, that's almost as many

138
00:07:33,680 --> 00:07:36,120
Speaker 1: troops as we lost during the entire war in Iraq.

139
00:07:36,240 --> 00:07:39,200
Speaker 1: So let's say it's even half. Well, that's a lot

140
00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:41,840
Speaker 1: of people. I mean, that is a colossal loss of

141
00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:44,360
Speaker 1: life in modern warfare. That's not something that we've seen

142
00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:47,600
Speaker 1: in a long time, and even the Russians did acknowledge

143
00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:49,840
Speaker 1: that they had had loss of life. That's right. So

144
00:07:49,840 --> 00:07:51,960
Speaker 1: they're acknowledging. They're never going to tell us the real number,

145
00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:53,640
Speaker 1: and so in terms of figuring it out, it's going

146
00:07:53,680 --> 00:07:55,360
Speaker 1: to be very difficult on our end. We can never

147
00:07:55,440 --> 00:07:57,920
Speaker 1: give you a true death toll. But here is something

148
00:07:58,000 --> 00:08:02,040
Speaker 1: which I was particularly concerned about, which is that Ramzan Kadirov,

149
00:08:02,080 --> 00:08:05,280
Speaker 1: who is the president of Chechnya, came out with the

150
00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:09,200
Speaker 1: statement urging Putin in order to apply harsher tactics. Now

151
00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:14,680
Speaker 1: that matters because famously Kadirov and Putin during nine to

152
00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:17,520
Speaker 1: the nineteen ninety nine war in Grosny carpet bomb to

153
00:08:17,600 --> 00:08:21,440
Speaker 1: the entire city, famously massacred civilians. So when they talk

154
00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:24,720
Speaker 1: about use of harsher tactics, that's what they mean. I've

155
00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:28,400
Speaker 1: also seen reports in the city of Kharkiv of cluster munitions.

156
00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:32,000
Speaker 1: We're actually banned by international law, but were employed during

157
00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:35,040
Speaker 1: the Syrian Civil War and are a well worn use

158
00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:38,160
Speaker 1: in the Russian arsenal. Cluster munitions, just so people know,

159
00:08:38,320 --> 00:08:41,959
Speaker 1: are horrific tools of war. I mean they just scatter

160
00:08:42,080 --> 00:08:45,880
Speaker 1: all throughout city, go off. I mean they're known for

161
00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:49,920
Speaker 1: maiming and killing civilians. Yes, they have a quote unquote

162
00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:54,479
Speaker 1: military application, but use in urban warfare is barbaric and catastrophic.

163
00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:57,240
Speaker 1: And that's something that we have seen at least one

164
00:08:57,880 --> 00:09:00,840
Speaker 1: confirmed report in the city of Kharkiv just this morning.

165
00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:04,160
Speaker 1: So this is why it matters. Look five days, as

166
00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:07,040
Speaker 1: you said about the resurrection, the gamble of resurrection, that's

167
00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:09,760
Speaker 1: only going to increase the pressure on Putin in order

168
00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:11,880
Speaker 1: to save face, in order to try and bring a

169
00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:14,920
Speaker 1: swift military victory. And the only way that this now

170
00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:18,559
Speaker 1: seems possible given the immense Ukrainian and heroic resistance. I

171
00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:20,640
Speaker 1: do want to say that of the soldiers there and

172
00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:23,760
Speaker 1: also of the president, I mean, we got it. Unbelievable, right,

173
00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:26,400
Speaker 1: I mean, I think he's handled himself with great a

174
00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:29,559
Speaker 1: plum from the very beginning. I mean, always trying to

175
00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:32,120
Speaker 1: keep the peace, telling Washington to calm down up until

176
00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:34,360
Speaker 1: the very last second. But then, I mean, I can't

177
00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:37,400
Speaker 1: imagine a Western politician standing tall and taking up arms

178
00:09:37,440 --> 00:09:40,960
Speaker 1: in the capital city. Yeah. Offered to get him out

179
00:09:41,000 --> 00:09:43,920
Speaker 1: of there, he said, no, I need guns and Amma. Yeah.

180
00:09:44,040 --> 00:09:47,640
Speaker 1: Same with the mayor, you know, Klitchko also manning a

181
00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:52,160
Speaker 1: machine gun. Even Parshenko, who himself was a Putin tool,

182
00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:55,720
Speaker 1: is in the streets with a bulletproof vest on and

183
00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:58,760
Speaker 1: the Khalishnikov rifle. So just goes to show you how

184
00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:01,959
Speaker 1: foolish of Putin's gamb. It has united the entire political

185
00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:05,160
Speaker 1: class in Ukraine and a heroic struggle there, but we

186
00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:09,400
Speaker 1: can and will see most likely significant more loss of

187
00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:11,440
Speaker 1: civilian life. And for a lot of people who are

188
00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:14,440
Speaker 1: cheering this on the Ukrainian resistance listen, I'm with her.

189
00:10:14,679 --> 00:10:17,360
Speaker 1: But remember this. It took three weeks for America to

190
00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:21,280
Speaker 1: take over Baghdad, like It's war is not five days.

191
00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:24,160
Speaker 1: The opening days of a campaign are often messy. They

192
00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:25,960
Speaker 1: think they're going to be able to get away with something.

193
00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:29,200
Speaker 1: Now if they're going to double down, and all signs

194
00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:32,720
Speaker 1: point to that that means a significant more loss of

195
00:10:32,760 --> 00:10:35,480
Speaker 1: civilian life. The map that we had showed you previously

196
00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:38,680
Speaker 1: showed different movements. The goal currently of Russia is to ownered,

197
00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:41,680
Speaker 1: to isolate Kiev because that's where the government, the seat

198
00:10:41,679 --> 00:10:44,240
Speaker 1: of power is, and also to cut the entire country

199
00:10:44,240 --> 00:10:48,120
Speaker 1: into two, isolating any Western aid, cutting off and encircling

200
00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:51,679
Speaker 1: the entire Ukrainian military in the East and well, if

201
00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:54,080
Speaker 1: those people fight, that'll be a fight to the death. Listen,

202
00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:58,080
Speaker 1: the big picture is that Russia is vastly militarily superior

203
00:10:58,280 --> 00:11:01,760
Speaker 1: to Ukraine. I mean, those fundamental deal dynamics have not changed,

204
00:11:01,880 --> 00:11:05,439
Speaker 1: even though the military campaign for Putin has not progressed

205
00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:09,000
Speaker 1: as quickly and as easily as he perhaps thought. One

206
00:11:09,040 --> 00:11:12,760
Speaker 1: of the tactical blunders that analysts have been pointing to

207
00:11:13,200 --> 00:11:17,360
Speaker 1: has been Russia's failure to establish air superiority right out

208
00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:19,760
Speaker 1: of the gates. And one of the things we're going

209
00:11:19,840 --> 00:11:21,720
Speaker 1: to bring to you all the movements that the EU

210
00:11:21,880 --> 00:11:24,679
Speaker 1: is making, but one of the extraordinary measures that they

211
00:11:24,679 --> 00:11:26,840
Speaker 1: are taking this is first time ever, is they are

212
00:11:26,880 --> 00:11:32,880
Speaker 1: actually providing EU fighter jets to Ukraine at Ukraine's request.

213
00:11:33,440 --> 00:11:37,400
Speaker 1: So that's another factor in all of this. But yes,

214
00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:42,120
Speaker 1: an extraordinarily dangerous situation. And this all takes place against

215
00:11:42,120 --> 00:11:45,480
Speaker 1: the backdrop of you know, they're shelling and rocket attacks

216
00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:49,240
Speaker 1: on Kharkiv and potentially killing massive amounts of Kharkiv civilians,

217
00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:53,360
Speaker 1: as Russia and Ukraine are actually meeting diplomatically right now, right,

218
00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:55,160
Speaker 1: So let's go ahead and move on to the diplomacy,

219
00:11:55,160 --> 00:11:57,360
Speaker 1: because this is really important here Okay, let's ahead and

220
00:11:57,400 --> 00:11:59,800
Speaker 1: put this up there on the screen right now as

221
00:11:59,800 --> 00:12:03,320
Speaker 1: we speak, Zelenski had agreed to talks with Russia as

222
00:12:03,360 --> 00:12:06,200
Speaker 1: the Putin invasion continues. It was going to be on

223
00:12:06,280 --> 00:12:09,840
Speaker 1: the Priyapot River on the Bela Russian border. So currently

224
00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:13,960
Speaker 1: that is actually happening right at this second. Now what

225
00:12:14,080 --> 00:12:17,200
Speaker 1: has happened is that the delegation by Ukraine is Defense

226
00:12:17,320 --> 00:12:23,520
Speaker 1: Minister Oleski Renzakov and the MP David Arakimia. I'm sorry,

227
00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:25,840
Speaker 1: very sorry about the pronunciation of the names. He's the

228
00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:28,600
Speaker 1: leader of the Zelenski party in the Ukrainian parliament. So

229
00:12:28,880 --> 00:12:32,120
Speaker 1: those are the two chief representatives of the Ukrainian government.

230
00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:35,320
Speaker 1: That being said, we should not have high hopes for

231
00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:38,360
Speaker 1: a diplomatic solution at this point, the reason being that

232
00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:42,000
Speaker 1: what President Lelensky had said is that yeah, sure we

233
00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:45,600
Speaker 1: can meet, but I demand an immediate withdrawal of Ukraine,

234
00:12:45,679 --> 00:12:50,160
Speaker 1: of Russians from Ukraine, and an immediate ceasefire with no preconditions,

235
00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:52,960
Speaker 1: in effect saying no, I'm not going to resign all

236
00:12:53,000 --> 00:12:56,439
Speaker 1: of that. The Russians, though, floating a talk with zero

237
00:12:56,480 --> 00:12:59,520
Speaker 1: preconditions does go to show you that militarily things are

238
00:12:59,559 --> 00:13:03,120
Speaker 1: not working out. However, they have still continued to demand

239
00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:07,599
Speaker 1: maximalist political aims, a total subjugation of Ukraine, not only subjugation,

240
00:13:07,679 --> 00:13:10,160
Speaker 1: but an agreement that they will never host weapons on

241
00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:13,480
Speaker 1: their soil. That interpretation up to them in terms of

242
00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:16,160
Speaker 1: what exactly that means. They are looking for a bela

243
00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:18,840
Speaker 1: Russian client state in the state of Ukraine, and at

244
00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:22,040
Speaker 1: this point, I don't see how Putin could possibly settle

245
00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:26,679
Speaker 1: for any political settlement where Zelenski remains in power when

246
00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:29,920
Speaker 1: he's so floated by the West. Number one too, Zelensky

247
00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:32,839
Speaker 1: is essentially pledged to fight to the death. He's requested

248
00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:36,480
Speaker 1: fighters from the European Union. He's getting now lethal aid

249
00:13:36,559 --> 00:13:38,800
Speaker 1: here from the United States where shipping him Stinger missiles.

250
00:13:38,920 --> 00:13:41,520
Speaker 1: Sweden is apparently providing anti TIS. I mean, to get

251
00:13:41,559 --> 00:13:45,240
Speaker 1: Sweden to provide you with missiles really mess you? Yeah,

252
00:13:45,280 --> 00:13:49,600
Speaker 1: you screwed up. Finland is you know, is getting involved here?

253
00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:52,360
Speaker 1: I mean, I have never seen Europe like this in

254
00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:55,560
Speaker 1: my entire lifetime. I don't think it's existed at this

255
00:13:55,679 --> 00:13:58,600
Speaker 1: state since nineteen forty. I mean, it really is one

256
00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:04,000
Speaker 1: of the most united Putin has accomplished the unbelievable goal

257
00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:07,280
Speaker 1: of getting the European stack stop bickering and to try

258
00:14:07,520 --> 00:14:10,800
Speaker 1: to do something which itself is a maximalist political feat.

259
00:14:11,000 --> 00:14:14,520
Speaker 1: But on the diplomacy side too, we are watching very

260
00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:18,040
Speaker 1: closely what's happening with China. China remains basically the only

261
00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:20,840
Speaker 1: grand strategic ally that Russia has in this fight. So

262
00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:22,800
Speaker 1: let's go ahead and put this up there on the screen,

263
00:14:22,840 --> 00:14:26,280
Speaker 1: and it's a fascinating look into actually how what's happened

264
00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:30,560
Speaker 1: now with Russia's invasion of Ukraine is straining relations between

265
00:14:30,640 --> 00:14:34,480
Speaker 1: Putin and she and she Shi. Sheinping actually has gone

266
00:14:34,520 --> 00:14:38,280
Speaker 1: ahead and urged a diplomatic solution to the crisis. What's

267
00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:42,160
Speaker 1: also interesting, Crystal, is that even though China continues to

268
00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:44,280
Speaker 1: try to do kind of a both sidism, which is

269
00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:48,440
Speaker 1: that we wish to see a secession of hostilities and

270
00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:52,720
Speaker 1: respective territorial integrity, but that of course is up to debate,

271
00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:56,360
Speaker 1: they are looking very closely and do not and are

272
00:14:56,400 --> 00:14:59,440
Speaker 1: not using the same language that they would with respect

273
00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:01,920
Speaker 1: to Taiwan. And I think that this matters because what

274
00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:04,520
Speaker 1: the Chinese are, what the Chinese are implying in their

275
00:15:04,520 --> 00:15:07,720
Speaker 1: diplomatic statements is that Ukraine was a separate country, and

276
00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:10,680
Speaker 1: it did get invaded by Russia. Now they the way

277
00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:13,160
Speaker 1: they look at Taiwan is like Taiwan's not a separate country.

278
00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:16,120
Speaker 1: Taiwan is China. It just happens to be governed by

279
00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:19,240
Speaker 1: rebel government. We're going to bring it home. So to speak,

280
00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:21,000
Speaker 1: their way that they would talk about it is is

281
00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:24,120
Speaker 1: you can invade your own country, right whereas Putin is

282
00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:26,920
Speaker 1: setting it up very differently, questioning the legitimacy of the

283
00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:29,920
Speaker 1: Ukrainian state period, but not in the same way. So

284
00:15:30,040 --> 00:15:33,600
Speaker 1: whenever Shishinping is talking this way and the Chinese Foreign

285
00:15:33,640 --> 00:15:37,320
Speaker 1: Ministry is putting out those statements, that is attention. And

286
00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:40,640
Speaker 1: the reason too is that it doesn't take a genius

287
00:15:40,880 --> 00:15:44,720
Speaker 1: to see that Putin has united not only the entire West.

288
00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:46,920
Speaker 1: Something I want to emphasize before we even get to

289
00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:50,720
Speaker 1: the economic part here. The Japanese Central Bank continues to

290
00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:54,600
Speaker 1: also join the West in cutting Russia off from the

291
00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:59,240
Speaker 1: global financial system. And actually the largest import that Russia

292
00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:03,800
Speaker 1: has are cars from Japan and South Korea. So those

293
00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:07,560
Speaker 1: two Asian countries, obviously allied with the West, have now

294
00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:11,040
Speaker 1: a united block of financial sanctions, not only from their

295
00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:14,440
Speaker 1: largest trading partners in the West, but also in the east.

296
00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:17,080
Speaker 1: So that has made it so that you've got an

297
00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:19,760
Speaker 1: immense amount of political pressure from both sides of the

298
00:16:19,760 --> 00:16:23,600
Speaker 1: globe on Russia. This matters for China because they do

299
00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:27,400
Speaker 1: not want any of these economic consequences coming to their doors.

300
00:16:27,680 --> 00:16:31,120
Speaker 1: And if they were to continue to float Russia economically,

301
00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:34,920
Speaker 1: they themselves could then invite sanctions which would cripple their economy.

302
00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:37,520
Speaker 1: Not necessarily it would be the same ones, but there

303
00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:39,440
Speaker 1: are all sorts of different ways that we've seen in

304
00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:41,920
Speaker 1: the past where you can sanction a country which is

305
00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:44,760
Speaker 1: buying oil from Iran, for example, we could see the

306
00:16:44,760 --> 00:16:48,200
Speaker 1: same thing if they were purchasing Russian gas, purchasing Russian wheat.

307
00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:51,160
Speaker 1: China has viewed this very much as oh my gosh,

308
00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:53,760
Speaker 1: Putin has invited the backlash of the entire world. We

309
00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:55,880
Speaker 1: want an immediate and to this. So he does not

310
00:16:55,960 --> 00:16:58,920
Speaker 1: even have somebody backing him at the foremost in his

311
00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:02,160
Speaker 1: maximum political goal. That is, that's right, And this is

312
00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:07,280
Speaker 1: really significant because the early signs from China were pretty bad. Yes,

313
00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:09,960
Speaker 1: I mean, there was even some speculation that maybe they

314
00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:12,520
Speaker 1: had kind of a secret deal and they sought immediately

315
00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:16,040
Speaker 1: to sort of backstop the Russian wheat market, which matters

316
00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:18,960
Speaker 1: a lot. But you're starting to get these little signs

317
00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:23,040
Speaker 1: that all is not well in the China Russia relationship.

318
00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:27,679
Speaker 1: First of all, China abstained from a vote at the

319
00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:32,000
Speaker 1: UN Security Council rather than voting against the resolution condemning

320
00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:36,120
Speaker 1: this invasion. They abstained, be better if they voted for

321
00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:39,000
Speaker 1: the resolution. That's not gonna happen. So the fact that

322
00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:43,720
Speaker 1: they abstained was significant. And then another little potential sign

323
00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:48,040
Speaker 1: was it was actually right after Putin had a phone

324
00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:51,760
Speaker 1: call which Jijin Ping that he agreed to the talks

325
00:17:51,800 --> 00:17:53,959
Speaker 1: that are going on now. Now we don't know what

326
00:17:54,040 --> 00:17:55,800
Speaker 1: was said during that phone call, we don't know if

327
00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:58,480
Speaker 1: those two things were related, but noteworthy that that phone

328
00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:01,400
Speaker 1: call happens. And then that's what and Russia shifts their positions,

329
00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:05,440
Speaker 1: agreeing to meet with no preconditions with the Ukrainian delegation.

330
00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:08,960
Speaker 1: And as you're pointing to, China really finds themselves in

331
00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:11,879
Speaker 1: quite a bind here because number one, I mean, it

332
00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:15,080
Speaker 1: doesn't take a rocket scientist to just look out at

333
00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:18,840
Speaker 1: the geopolitical landscape and say, do we really want our

334
00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:21,680
Speaker 1: sort of sole ally to be what is now becoming

335
00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:26,160
Speaker 1: a pariahs state that is financially collapsing in real time,

336
00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:28,399
Speaker 1: and we'll get to that in just a minute. But

337
00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:32,320
Speaker 1: in addition to that, China has leaned heavily on this

338
00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:37,360
Speaker 1: concept of sovereignty as a core part of their foreign policy,

339
00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:40,640
Speaker 1: of their economic policy. This is a major part of

340
00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:45,040
Speaker 1: their routine propaganda to their own population. It's part of

341
00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:47,360
Speaker 1: the way that they know. This is what they say

342
00:18:47,359 --> 00:18:50,360
Speaker 1: to the US of Number one, you don't have any

343
00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:54,080
Speaker 1: moral legitimacy to complain about us when you violated national

344
00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:58,240
Speaker 1: sovereignty in places like a rock. Number two, how dare

345
00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:01,159
Speaker 1: you tell us how to treat our some weaker population,

346
00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:03,800
Speaker 1: because we're a sovereign nation and you don't get to

347
00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:07,800
Speaker 1: meddle in our affairs. So that's been a core piece

348
00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:11,840
Speaker 1: of their sort of propaganda and their orientation. So now

349
00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:17,040
Speaker 1: when you have Russia so clearly violating the sovereignty of Ukraine,

350
00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:20,320
Speaker 1: it puts them in a very difficult and tricky and

351
00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:24,439
Speaker 1: uncomfortable position. So that could be why you're seeing some

352
00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:28,439
Speaker 1: of these little steps away from Russia and not fully

353
00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:31,200
Speaker 1: backing them up in the way that we initially feared

354
00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:33,119
Speaker 1: that they would. There's all had of lessons for China

355
00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:34,919
Speaker 1: in this. You know, it's interesting. I was just looking

356
00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:37,800
Speaker 1: at some military analysts who I trust. If you're the

357
00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:41,440
Speaker 1: People's Liberation Army, you've never fought a general war since

358
00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:45,200
Speaker 1: the Korean War. The current officers there are not even

359
00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:48,040
Speaker 1: close to as trained as the Russian military officers who've

360
00:19:48,040 --> 00:19:50,919
Speaker 1: been engaged in civil war. All of this, if the

361
00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:54,560
Speaker 1: Russians are meeting this level of resistance in Ukraine, now

362
00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:58,159
Speaker 1: you can see then and having such catastrophic results, at

363
00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:01,000
Speaker 1: least in the short term. You can see that Ukraine

364
00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:04,320
Speaker 1: and a committed military population, especially an island or a

365
00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:06,720
Speaker 1: nation like that which has backing from the West, can

366
00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:09,439
Speaker 1: put up a pretty decent fight if given the chance.

367
00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:12,440
Speaker 1: The PLA there's no indication that they have even close

368
00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:15,200
Speaker 1: to the same level of competency and would probably face

369
00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:17,800
Speaker 1: the same level of backlash in Taiwan if they were

370
00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:20,359
Speaker 1: to invade. So there's a lot of lessons here for China,

371
00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:22,800
Speaker 1: which is that, look, yeah, you know, you may not

372
00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:26,679
Speaker 1: have direct military intervention, but the West, when united on

373
00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:28,879
Speaker 1: these things, can make your life a living hell, as

374
00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:31,119
Speaker 1: Russia is about to find out, and we're about to

375
00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:33,280
Speaker 1: talk about that. And second, which is that if you

376
00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:36,280
Speaker 1: have a committed adversary, well you better be willing to

377
00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:38,760
Speaker 1: fight to the literal death in order to make sure

378
00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:41,960
Speaker 1: that that political goal can be accomplished, because these people

379
00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:44,280
Speaker 1: are not going to give up so easy. So, you know,

380
00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:46,640
Speaker 1: it's an interesting there's a lesson here for any time

381
00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:49,840
Speaker 1: you try to conquer a small country, it may look

382
00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:52,120
Speaker 1: like a cakewalk, but you will find out the same

383
00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:54,919
Speaker 1: lesson that America did in Iraq. You break it, you

384
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,359
Speaker 1: buy it, and you will lose thousands of people and

385
00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:00,480
Speaker 1: you can have a massive domestic political of a war

386
00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:03,560
Speaker 1: for generations to come. Yeah, we're going to have Derek

387
00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:06,240
Speaker 1: Thompson on later in the show because he's been interviewing

388
00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:09,280
Speaker 1: a whole bunch of experts about all of the follow

389
00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:12,760
Speaker 1: up on effects of this crisis, and one of the

390
00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:17,439
Speaker 1: people that he talked to was discussing this Chinese relationship

391
00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:19,600
Speaker 1: and how they would be evaluating this because of one

392
00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:21,040
Speaker 1: of my fears, one of I think a lot of

393
00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:23,959
Speaker 1: people's fears, is that China would use this as an

394
00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:26,880
Speaker 1: excuse and would sort of embolden them with regards to Taiwan,

395
00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:29,760
Speaker 1: and at least the expert that Derek talked to said.

396
00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:32,440
Speaker 1: On the contrary, I think they may be looking at

397
00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:35,199
Speaker 1: this and seeing like this did not go all that

398
00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:39,000
Speaker 1: well for Russia, and so they didn't think that this

399
00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:42,960
Speaker 1: would actually cause China to take bolder steps. And they

400
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:46,359
Speaker 1: also saw it as a possibility of even cooling what

401
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:51,040
Speaker 1: has been a love affair between China and Russia most recently.

402
00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:55,960
Speaker 1: So let's get to what is effectively economic warfare. We're

403
00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:59,159
Speaker 1: learning more details this morning of just how devastated the

404
00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:02,919
Speaker 1: Russian economy is in the short term. Let's put this

405
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:06,159
Speaker 1: Financial Times tear sheet up on the screen. This is

406
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:11,280
Speaker 1: the most significant new sanctions that have been levied against Russia.

407
00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:15,520
Speaker 1: West is planning to impose sanctions on Russian Central Bank

408
00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:20,160
Speaker 1: and cut some lenders from Swift. These two things matter

409
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:24,040
Speaker 1: tremendously together. Just so you guys know, I'm sure a

410
00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:27,640
Speaker 1: lot of you already do. Swift is the messaging system,

411
00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:32,439
Speaker 1: the global financial messaging system that allows banks around the

412
00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:36,120
Speaker 1: world to easily do business with each other. So when

413
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:39,600
Speaker 1: the US and our allies say we're cutting Russia's major

414
00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:42,840
Speaker 1: lenders off of the Swift financial system, that makes it

415
00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:48,440
Speaker 1: very difficult for them to conduct international transactions. Now they

416
00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:52,360
Speaker 1: have said Apparently they're trying to sort of exempt energy

417
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:56,760
Speaker 1: transactions from those sanctions, reason being that you don't want

418
00:22:56,760 --> 00:22:59,480
Speaker 1: to actually spike energy prices, both because of the impact

419
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:02,560
Speaker 1: on our populations, but also because if gas prices go up,

420
00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:06,280
Speaker 1: that's actually a benefit to Russia, a petrol state, So

421
00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:09,720
Speaker 1: they're trying to exempt energy transactions. But one of the

422
00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:12,320
Speaker 1: things we talked about last week in that soccer you

423
00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 1: actually raised was the fact that Russia had these huge

424
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:18,639
Speaker 1: foreign currency reserves, and there was a thinking that they

425
00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:22,080
Speaker 1: might be sort of sanction proof, that they had ways,

426
00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:24,240
Speaker 1: they'd worked out ways and had a rainy day fund

427
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:26,480
Speaker 1: to be able to get around the worst of the sanctions.

428
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:30,200
Speaker 1: And that's where these sanctions on the central bank come

429
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:34,600
Speaker 1: into play and effectively cut off some of their mechanisms

430
00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:38,200
Speaker 1: for being able to get around these sanctions. And this

431
00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:43,520
Speaker 1: is incredibly extraordinary. They quoted in that Financial Times article,

432
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:46,840
Speaker 1: they quote an expert that says, a G twenty central

433
00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:50,840
Speaker 1: bank has never been sanctioned before. This is not Iran,

434
00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:54,159
Speaker 1: this is not Venezuela. Our friend chef Stein has been

435
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:56,600
Speaker 1: doing reporting on exactly what this looks like and what

436
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:59,160
Speaker 1: it ultimately means to go ahead and put his tweet

437
00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:02,639
Speaker 1: up on the screen. Russia has hundreds of billions in

438
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 1: foreign health reserves that it can normally sell, driving demand

439
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,880
Speaker 1: for rubles up when the Russian currency has plummeted in value.

440
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:14,240
Speaker 1: Freezing the reserves means Russia's bank cannot sell assets to

441
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:17,560
Speaker 1: stabilize the currency. And let's put this next piece up

442
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:20,400
Speaker 1: on the screen. We're seeing the impact of that in

443
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:24,760
Speaker 1: real time. Just look at this is the rubles per

444
00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:28,400
Speaker 1: US dollar exchange. All this this morning, and yeah, as

445
00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 1: of this morning, massive deterioration of the ruble is just collapsing.

446
00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 1: We've got new reporting about the Russian Central Bank has

447
00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 1: lifted their interest rate to twenty percent. Compare I mean,

448
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:46,480
Speaker 1: that's equivalent to the Fed here, imagine if they lifted

449
00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 1: the injury we talk about quarter of a point in

450
00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:51,240
Speaker 1: the market freaks down here. They just lifted their rate

451
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:54,600
Speaker 1: to twenty percent. They have banned they closed the Moscow

452
00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:58,640
Speaker 1: stock exchange because the whole thing was completely collapsing. They

453
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:04,640
Speaker 1: banned foreigners from buying and trading stocks. Absolutely extraordinary measures.

454
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:08,600
Speaker 1: We also have, you know, massive reports of effectively bank

455
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:11,880
Speaker 1: runs as Russians saw these sanctions coming and have been

456
00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:14,600
Speaker 1: lining up to try to get any cash they can

457
00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:17,600
Speaker 1: out of banks, out of ATMs. Let's take a look

458
00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:20,879
Speaker 1: at the video that we have of what that looks like.

459
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:27,879
Speaker 1: They're just filing down the wall, down the stores, lining

460
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:31,960
Speaker 1: up at ATMs all over the place because the economic

461
00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:35,359
Speaker 1: fallout is so incredibly great, And Sager, this is another

462
00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:39,240
Speaker 1: area where you know, I know that it can feel

463
00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 1: sort of like, all right, well, let's just throw everything

464
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:44,280
Speaker 1: we have against let's make life as difficult as possible

465
00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:47,679
Speaker 1: for Russia. And with regards to the oligarchs, I'm one

466
00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:51,200
Speaker 1: hundred percent on board. But there's two things to remember.

467
00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 1: Number One, the Russian population didn't do anything wrong, and

468
00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:56,280
Speaker 1: in fact, significant amounts of them we're going to show

469
00:25:56,280 --> 00:26:00,159
Speaker 1: you that later are opposed to these actions and are

470
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:04,920
Speaker 1: shocked and outraged at what their own leadership has done.

471
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:08,600
Speaker 1: But number two, this again gets to when you're pushing

472
00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:11,719
Speaker 1: Putin into a corner and his back is up against

473
00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:14,520
Speaker 1: the wall, what is he going to do and what

474
00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:17,959
Speaker 1: is that going to look like? Because they have cyber

475
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:21,000
Speaker 1: attack capabilities, what is his next step going to be there?

476
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:24,520
Speaker 1: When we are making life economically so difficult for them,

477
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:26,600
Speaker 1: this is truly economic warfare. It is well, and the

478
00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 1: thing is too crystal. It's not just the United States.

479
00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:31,840
Speaker 1: In fact, the US is almost in the back seat here,

480
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:34,240
Speaker 1: you know. I mean, I'll remind you know, President Biden

481
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 1: was basically against the SWIFT removing Russia from SWIFT. But

482
00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:40,439
Speaker 1: then what ended up happening is that the EU pressure

483
00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:42,600
Speaker 1: Germany so hard that they came on board, and we

484
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:44,440
Speaker 1: were like, oh, okay, I mean, let's go ahead and

485
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:47,280
Speaker 1: put this EU tweet up there on the screen just

486
00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 1: to give you guys an idea about what's happening. We're

487
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:53,680
Speaker 1: shutting down the EU airspace for Russian owned, Russian registered

488
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 1: or Russian controlled aircraft. They won't be able to land,

489
00:26:57,200 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 1: take off, or overfly the territory of the European Union.

490
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:05,440
Speaker 1: They are banning all Kremlin state owned media in Europe.

491
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:07,920
Speaker 1: I mean, these are things which we have not seen

492
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:12,640
Speaker 1: in a long time. Russia is effectively cut off from

493
00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:15,800
Speaker 1: the world. They are not allowed to fly in Canadian airspace,

494
00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:18,159
Speaker 1: They're not a flowed to fly in European airspace. So

495
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 1: I guess you know, the Moscow Beijing thing is the

496
00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 1: only is the only flight left in town for a

497
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:25,880
Speaker 1: lot of those folks. I feel pretty bad for them,

498
00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:29,320
Speaker 1: but that is what I think we should and continue.

499
00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:32,400
Speaker 1: We cannot drop about how significant this is. The other

500
00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:34,360
Speaker 1: one that really caught my eye was this one, let's

501
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:36,919
Speaker 1: put it up there from Anne Marie Horden, which is

502
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:41,199
Speaker 1: that British Petroleum is exiting it's twenty percent steak in

503
00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 1: the Kremlin owned ross Nest. Now the CEO is resigning

504
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:49,120
Speaker 1: from the board and that's the state Kremlin controlled oil producer.

505
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:52,840
Speaker 1: It was the number one major oil producer of the

506
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:56,080
Speaker 1: West to have a presence in Russia. So exiting your

507
00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:59,320
Speaker 1: twenty percent steak and basically saying we're clearing our hands

508
00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:01,240
Speaker 1: of this. At the same time, I want to go

509
00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:03,320
Speaker 1: back to what you talked about with the Central Bank.

510
00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:08,320
Speaker 1: There are major margin calls all across Europe because Russia's

511
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:11,720
Speaker 1: bond values have been cut to the value of zero,

512
00:28:12,119 --> 00:28:16,560
Speaker 1: and so massive financial institutions all across Russia had Russian

513
00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:19,159
Speaker 1: bonds as part of their portfolio, and now they are

514
00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:21,680
Speaker 1: all having to pony up a lot of cash because

515
00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:24,440
Speaker 1: a lot of their collateral was based in bonds which

516
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:27,639
Speaker 1: now have zero value. We haven't seen stuff like this

517
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 1: since the First World the outbreak of the First World

518
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:32,920
Speaker 1: War the outbreak of the Second World War in Europe.

519
00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:35,639
Speaker 1: I mean, the amount of backstopping that this had in

520
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:39,280
Speaker 1: European economies can't be overstated. So I do think people

521
00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:41,720
Speaker 1: should prepare, and we're going to talk about this with Derek.

522
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:45,160
Speaker 1: But it's not just high gas prices. There is, as

523
00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:46,680
Speaker 1: we found out in two thousand and eight, there are

524
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:49,640
Speaker 1: cascading effects to the global financial system. You have no

525
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 1: idea what this is going to impact. So there's not

526
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:55,880
Speaker 1: just a bank run for the ordinary Russians who we

527
00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:58,520
Speaker 1: have a video of that. Actually, let's put this up

528
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:03,800
Speaker 1: there from you can see a line there of people

529
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 1: waiting to pull cash out of the ATM. I saw

530
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 1: journalists Crystal talking yesterday about how their hotels were forcing

531
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:14,720
Speaker 1: them to settle their bill before swip saw that came

532
00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 1: in because they're like, we won't be able to charge

533
00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:18,720
Speaker 1: your card. We don't know if the cards are going

534
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 1: to work. I mean, they are done in terms of

535
00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:25,600
Speaker 1: their economy. They better pray that they produce what they

536
00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:30,480
Speaker 1: need because financially they're dead. We are about to see massive,

537
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:35,920
Speaker 1: massive financial ruin upon the average Russian person and on

538
00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:38,120
Speaker 1: the oligarchs as well, and we're about to get to

539
00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 1: that too, because if there is any sort of backlash coming,

540
00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:43,560
Speaker 1: it is going to be amongst the money to leite

541
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 1: class in Russia who Putin has long both controlled but

542
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:51,880
Speaker 1: had to see their allies. They's a powerful entity in

543
00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:54,720
Speaker 1: and of themselves within the Russian state. Yeah, So just

544
00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:57,280
Speaker 1: to recap, this is what Jeff Stein tweeted this morning

545
00:29:57,480 --> 00:30:02,800
Speaker 1: with regards to the economic collapse. Value of rublel collapses

546
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:08,200
Speaker 1: about thirty percent. Russia's suspends stock market runs on Russia's

547
00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 1: RTM's widely reported allies block Putin for much of their

548
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:15,880
Speaker 1: six hundred billion plus dollar reserves, which are not all

549
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:18,920
Speaker 1: held in dollars. It's a mix of currencies, and Allies

550
00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:23,000
Speaker 1: also hit sovereign Wealth Fund and Russia's foreign ministry, So

551
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:27,280
Speaker 1: massive economic consequences. And the other piece Sager here with

552
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 1: the EU is it's not just the financial the financial

553
00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:37,120
Speaker 1: sanctions we also mentioned before. They're sending fighter jit jets.

554
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 1: This is the first time ever that the EU has

555
00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 1: funded lethal aid in any circumstance, and going all the

556
00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:49,840
Speaker 1: way in with fighter jets is quite extraordinary. Germany has

557
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 1: had in it like this a sea change in how

558
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:57,360
Speaker 1: they're thinking about both their their military spending and also

559
00:30:57,440 --> 00:31:01,840
Speaker 1: their energy posture. Chancellor Schultz announced a one time increase

560
00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 1: of one hundred billion euros for defense spending and a

561
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:08,480
Speaker 1: pledge to spend more than two percent of Germany's economic

562
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:13,560
Speaker 1: output annually on defense. He also proposed enshrining that threshold

563
00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:17,280
Speaker 1: in the country's constitution so that this isn't just a

564
00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:19,040
Speaker 1: one off thing. And for those of you who know

565
00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:22,000
Speaker 1: German history, of course, they've always focused on diploma's eve

566
00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:24,680
Speaker 1: been very reluctant to increase military space. They've been the

567
00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:27,040
Speaker 1: biggest doves on the continent. That's what basically my home.

568
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:29,560
Speaker 1: That's exactly right. So you're going to get more into that.

569
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:34,200
Speaker 1: But that is an extraordinary shift in posture here as

570
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:36,920
Speaker 1: the EU really you know, faces down and tries to

571
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:39,000
Speaker 1: grapple with what to do in a lot of ways.

572
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:42,320
Speaker 1: I mean, they have been leading the charge. Again, I

573
00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 1: really want to caution that all of these moves are

574
00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:50,760
Speaker 1: escalatory tactics, and we should expect that Russia will respond.

575
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:54,360
Speaker 1: We should also keep in mind from history that when

576
00:31:54,480 --> 00:32:00,200
Speaker 1: our sanctions have punished populations, that actually gives authoritarian leaders

577
00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 1: a propaganda tool to say, you know, to let themselves

578
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:06,200
Speaker 1: off the hook and to sort of rally people around.

579
00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 1: It's the bad guys in the West, It's the US,

580
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 1: it's the Europeans who are causing your sufferings. It's not

581
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 1: my fault. So again, I know there's a lot of

582
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 1: energy and a lot of desire to say like, let's

583
00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:19,760
Speaker 1: just go as hard as we possibly can. That doesn't

584
00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:22,000
Speaker 1: always get you the result that you want. In fact,

585
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 1: it can create a more intractable and more dangerous situation.

586
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:28,080
Speaker 1: That's an important point, and that is also the question.

587
00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 1: We were saying this constantly, and then what what is

588
00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:34,000
Speaker 1: the next room. Russia is a proud country. They have

589
00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:37,520
Speaker 1: a massive nuclear arsenal which we're going to talk to soon.

590
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:41,800
Speaker 1: They have major cyber capabilities. They also backstop a huge

591
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:44,719
Speaker 1: part of the Western financial system. I'm not saying they

592
00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 1: shouldn't be punished. I absolutely think they should. But we

593
00:32:47,600 --> 00:32:50,840
Speaker 1: need to be very careful and considered in what's happening.

594
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 1: Otherwise we're going to see a general war in Europe.

595
00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:55,760
Speaker 1: And I don't want to panic people, but this, what

596
00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:58,880
Speaker 1: we are seeing is one of the biggest sea changes

597
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 1: in European history in a I mean since the end

598
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:04,200
Speaker 1: of the Cold War. I don't think there's another way

599
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 1: to describe it. And to see the European Union, Sweden,

600
00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 1: Finland all arming up, sending missiles, the European Union sending

601
00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 1: in fighter jets, the United States sending Stinger missiles. The

602
00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:19,080
Speaker 1: same missiles we sent it to Afghan rebels Mujahaden in

603
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 1: Afghanistan during the Soviet invasion in order to shoot down aircraft,

604
00:33:23,440 --> 00:33:26,280
Speaker 1: which we have actually seen successfully used. You know, some

605
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:30,080
Speaker 1: Ukrainian air defense has been working quite well. All of

606
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:33,880
Speaker 1: this can and will have consequences. We are at the

607
00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:37,480
Speaker 1: beginning of a crisis and may not feel that way

608
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:39,960
Speaker 1: because we're living through it. But when you read through,

609
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:42,360
Speaker 1: I mean the July crisis of World War One was

610
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:45,040
Speaker 1: an entire month before the first gun even started firing.

611
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:47,720
Speaker 1: And then even then, really what ended up happening in

612
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:49,880
Speaker 1: the First World War, it took like six seven months

613
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:51,440
Speaker 1: before we were like, oh, this is how it's going

614
00:33:51,520 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 1: to look like for the rest of the time. This

615
00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 1: is going to take time, and that is why when

616
00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:58,680
Speaker 1: the invasion happened, something you and I emphasized was this

617
00:33:58,800 --> 00:34:02,400
Speaker 1: changes the picture for decades. I mean, this is a

618
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 1: global event that people will go back and you know,

619
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:08,560
Speaker 1: as we're living through history, so it feels real to us.

620
00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:10,399
Speaker 1: But you know, we are in the very very very

621
00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:14,640
Speaker 1: very very infancy of what will be a very long

622
00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:17,400
Speaker 1: running crisis, I think for years to come, which is

623
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:21,520
Speaker 1: realigning the entire order. I just keep reminding of this

624
00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 1: actually Russian phrase from Vladimir Lenin. There are decades where

625
00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:28,480
Speaker 1: nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happened. That's

626
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 1: so true. And the last thing that I'll say about

627
00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:34,760
Speaker 1: the sanctions and why we have to be very cool

628
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:38,799
Speaker 1: headed and measured in our response is there are some

629
00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:43,479
Speaker 1: historians who effectively say that Japan before World War two,

630
00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:46,880
Speaker 1: part of the reason why they hit US at Pearl

631
00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:51,600
Speaker 1: Harbor is because they were financially struggling. We cut them

632
00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:54,520
Speaker 1: off from oil, which they needed in order to finance

633
00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:57,440
Speaker 1: their campaigns against the Dutch East Indies and all that,

634
00:34:57,520 --> 00:34:59,439
Speaker 1: and that's part of the reason that they struck against it. Yeah,

635
00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:03,319
Speaker 1: and so this was a desperate move to lash out

636
00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:06,279
Speaker 1: and military their military planners knew at the time that

637
00:35:06,320 --> 00:35:09,720
Speaker 1: it could be a disaster, but they sort of didn't

638
00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:11,840
Speaker 1: know what else to do, and they're backed into a corner.

639
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:14,720
Speaker 1: Is not to justify it, so at all. They wouldn't

640
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:16,120
Speaker 1: have needed the oil if they didn't have to do

641
00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:20,319
Speaker 1: a genocidal campaign. Indeed, yes, but that's you know, those

642
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 1: are the sort of considerations you have to have. Is

643
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:26,279
Speaker 1: you're dealing with someone who militarily things have not gone

644
00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:29,560
Speaker 1: as well as he thought they would. He's facing protests

645
00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:32,640
Speaker 1: from within his own population at some level. There is

646
00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:34,719
Speaker 1: some significant level of descent that will show you not

647
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:37,920
Speaker 1: to mention global protests, not to mention the Chinese are

648
00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:40,600
Speaker 1: kind of, you know, a little bit wary of what's

649
00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:44,520
Speaker 1: going on here. And then the economy. This is all

650
00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 1: out financial warfare on the Russians, So you have to

651
00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:50,400
Speaker 1: always think of, Okay, what is that going to force

652
00:35:50,440 --> 00:35:53,000
Speaker 1: your adversary, what sort of thinking is that going to

653
00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:56,120
Speaker 1: cause them to engage in again with this idea of

654
00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:59,399
Speaker 1: gambling for resurrection and one of the other signs that

655
00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:01,560
Speaker 1: you know, so there's a little bit of fraying even

656
00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:04,279
Speaker 1: within the regime. Sager is the way that a couple

657
00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:06,480
Speaker 1: of the oligarchs have responded. Yeah, so let's get to this.

658
00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:09,240
Speaker 1: This is incredibly important. This is going to be the watch.

659
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:11,640
Speaker 1: You know, I've been reading over the weekend trying to

660
00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:15,719
Speaker 1: look at how Internal criminology itself has always been a

661
00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:19,120
Speaker 1: study and a discipline in Washington at that time during

662
00:36:19,120 --> 00:36:21,080
Speaker 1: the Soviet Union, it was to try to figure out

663
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:24,440
Speaker 1: the warring factions, which in the polit bureau. Modern Russia

664
00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:27,280
Speaker 1: is a little bit different. So you have Putin obviously

665
00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:30,920
Speaker 1: surrounded by sycophants within the government, but you have an

666
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 1: independent economic entity which is intertwined with the state and

667
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:38,920
Speaker 1: subjugated to it, but also incredibly powerful. That's the oligarch class.

668
00:36:39,120 --> 00:36:43,840
Speaker 1: Oligarch class has an immense amount of interest and power.

669
00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 1: They have now amassed tens of hundreds of billions of

670
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 1: dollars personally. Some of it they owe to Putin, but

671
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:52,160
Speaker 1: some of it they've a mass on their own, and

672
00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:55,120
Speaker 1: they are not happy about what's happening here. So this

673
00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 1: is something I'm watching very closely. If there is any

674
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:01,880
Speaker 1: movement against Putin within the Russian state, it is completely

675
00:37:01,960 --> 00:37:04,480
Speaker 1: dead unless these people are on board. So let's put

676
00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:07,760
Speaker 1: this up there on the screen. The billionaire Mikhyle Friedman

677
00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:11,360
Speaker 1: has called the war in Ukraine quote a tragedy and

678
00:37:11,480 --> 00:37:14,520
Speaker 1: is called on bloodshed to end. So the key thing

679
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:18,840
Speaker 1: is that Friedman is from Lavav in Western Ukraine and

680
00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:21,880
Speaker 1: his parents live there. He's the very first oligarch to

681
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:25,400
Speaker 1: go ahead and speak out, but he's not the only one.

682
00:37:25,480 --> 00:37:28,279
Speaker 1: We saw already that there are major costs that are

683
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:33,560
Speaker 1: being incurred by many Russian oligarchs. Ibramovich has had to

684
00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:37,040
Speaker 1: basically divest himself of his stake in Chelsea. Many of

685
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:40,680
Speaker 1: their yachts have been seized, many of their planes are

686
00:37:40,680 --> 00:37:44,400
Speaker 1: now no longer able to fly in all of Europe,

687
00:37:44,440 --> 00:37:47,640
Speaker 1: where they own an immense amount of property. A lot

688
00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:50,680
Speaker 1: of their kids live here. I don't know if anyone's

689
00:37:50,680 --> 00:37:53,560
Speaker 1: been to Williamsburg, but basically half of Williamsburg Brooklyn is

690
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:56,640
Speaker 1: owned by these Russian oligarchs. Oh really, Oh yeah, I

691
00:37:56,640 --> 00:37:59,160
Speaker 1: mean all these high rise towers on the water and stuff.

692
00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:02,680
Speaker 1: You'd be surprised, your English being speaking in those buildings,

693
00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:05,720
Speaker 1: all these penthouses. You know that. What's that disgusting building

694
00:38:05,719 --> 00:38:07,560
Speaker 1: in the middle of New York, the Time Warner Center,

695
00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:10,640
Speaker 1: they call it the new One is called the balance

696
00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:13,399
Speaker 1: Sheet that has all the architectural because it's just it's

697
00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:16,640
Speaker 1: so ugly. It's just straight up. That's a straight up one. Yeah, yeah,

698
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:19,360
Speaker 1: that one is like half owned by relevators. China and

699
00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:22,120
Speaker 1: another one that caught my eye just this morning. You

700
00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 1: don't have time to go into it to make an

701
00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:29,080
Speaker 1: element oleg Deripaska, the aluminum baron also somebody who was

702
00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:31,879
Speaker 1: intertwined with Steele dossier and all that. Yeah, he said

703
00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:34,800
Speaker 1: this morning, quote a hiked rate, the mandatory sale of

704
00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 1: foreign country of foreign currency. This is the first test

705
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:41,359
Speaker 1: of who will be responsible for this banquet quote. I

706
00:38:41,480 --> 00:38:46,720
Speaker 1: really want clarifications and intelligible comments on the economic policy

707
00:38:46,880 --> 00:38:51,319
Speaker 1: of the next three months. Not happy mister Derripaska in

708
00:38:51,400 --> 00:38:53,799
Speaker 1: terms of his aluminum empire there and how it's going

709
00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:58,000
Speaker 1: to be affected by this entire crisis. So look, if

710
00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:01,439
Speaker 1: we are to see any movement again putin it will

711
00:39:01,440 --> 00:39:03,840
Speaker 1: come from the oligarch class. I do not want to

712
00:39:03,880 --> 00:39:07,240
Speaker 1: get people's hopes up. That is not necessarily in the cards.

713
00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:09,799
Speaker 1: These are just two men. There's hundreds of them, but

714
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 1: they are suffering in terms of the financial sanctions from

715
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:18,239
Speaker 1: the West. Yes, the ordinary Russians have ATM polls and

716
00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:19,640
Speaker 1: all this, but if you want to know some of

717
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:22,920
Speaker 1: the people with the sketchiest finances on earth, it's Russian oligarchs.

718
00:39:23,080 --> 00:39:26,440
Speaker 1: And these people have all sorts of collateralized debt and

719
00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:31,360
Speaker 1: backstops and property that they have abroad to Panama. Papers

720
00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:34,719
Speaker 1: revealed quite a bit of this. This is significantly going

721
00:39:34,760 --> 00:39:37,480
Speaker 1: to have an impact on their ability in order to

722
00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:40,680
Speaker 1: do business and in order to have just a general

723
00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 1: lavish lifestyle. The second thing I want to point to

724
00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:46,160
Speaker 1: is this, which is I'll try to treat this as

725
00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:49,080
Speaker 1: sensitively as we can, because again, I do not want

726
00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:51,520
Speaker 1: to fan the flames of conspiracy theories. This could be

727
00:39:51,560 --> 00:39:55,880
Speaker 1: a total deep state plot. But Marco Rubio, the senator

728
00:39:56,440 --> 00:39:59,880
Speaker 1: from Florida, who is the ranking member on the Senate

729
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:03,239
Speaker 1: Intelligence Committee, has been putting out some very cryptic and

730
00:40:03,400 --> 00:40:09,160
Speaker 1: strange insinuations that Putin is either ill or mentally ill.

731
00:40:09,200 --> 00:40:10,960
Speaker 1: So let's put this up there on the screen. He

732
00:40:11,000 --> 00:40:13,759
Speaker 1: tweeted this quote. Let me stress again, we are not

733
00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:16,520
Speaker 1: dealing with two thousand and eight Putin. It is a

734
00:40:16,520 --> 00:40:19,640
Speaker 1: grave error to assume he will make the same calculations

735
00:40:19,640 --> 00:40:22,280
Speaker 1: and decisions today that he would have made in the past.

736
00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:27,080
Speaker 1: The old Putin was a cold blooded but calculating killer.

737
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:32,800
Speaker 1: This new Putin is even more dangerous. So insinuating crystal

738
00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:36,839
Speaker 1: that Putin is either ill or he is I mean

739
00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:40,480
Speaker 1: of a more of a paranoid mind. It's very difficult

740
00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:43,760
Speaker 1: in order to try and suss out what exactly he's saying.

741
00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:48,080
Speaker 1: I have asked around in terms of people who might know.

742
00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:50,920
Speaker 1: None of them would tell me with a straight answer

743
00:40:51,280 --> 00:40:54,120
Speaker 1: if the man is ill or not, which I don't know.

744
00:40:54,160 --> 00:40:57,480
Speaker 1: You read into that what you would like. Some things

745
00:40:57,560 --> 00:41:00,880
Speaker 1: that people have been pointing to again is Putin's clear

746
00:41:00,960 --> 00:41:05,600
Speaker 1: obsession with not getting COVID every single meeting, including this

747
00:41:05,680 --> 00:41:08,279
Speaker 1: morning with his meeting of economic ministers, he's all the

748
00:41:08,320 --> 00:41:10,520
Speaker 1: way at the far side of the table, and his

749
00:41:10,640 --> 00:41:12,920
Speaker 1: ministers are crammed at the very end of the table.

750
00:41:13,160 --> 00:41:16,200
Speaker 1: Whenever he met Macron famously was all the way at

751
00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:19,000
Speaker 1: the other side. You know, another thing which I noticed

752
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:21,560
Speaker 1: was did you notice that you know that speech from

753
00:41:21,640 --> 00:41:24,840
Speaker 1: his desk? He was by himself. It doesn't require a

754
00:41:24,960 --> 00:41:27,719
Speaker 1: large setup with a press conference and reporters who are

755
00:41:27,760 --> 00:41:30,880
Speaker 1: close by you. So the man is very clearly afraid

756
00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:34,719
Speaker 1: of getting COVID that could indicate he's sick and co morbidities.

757
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:38,480
Speaker 1: Once again, this is total speculation on my part. I

758
00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:41,400
Speaker 1: also could be, like I said, playing into what the

759
00:41:41,640 --> 00:41:43,680
Speaker 1: IC might want us to think, which is that, oh,

760
00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:46,000
Speaker 1: Putin is ill. Maybe he's just a sixty nine year

761
00:41:46,000 --> 00:41:48,680
Speaker 1: old man who wants to secure his legacy. But if

762
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:50,799
Speaker 1: it is the case that he's ill, and this is

763
00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:56,360
Speaker 1: not without precedent, Soviet Premier Brazhnev launched the Soviet invasion

764
00:41:56,360 --> 00:41:59,120
Speaker 1: of Afghanistan in nineteen seventy nine when he was very ill,

765
00:41:59,160 --> 00:42:00,520
Speaker 1: and there was a lot of questions at the time

766
00:42:00,520 --> 00:42:02,719
Speaker 1: in the Pollet bureau, Oh, is he, you know, a

767
00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:05,160
Speaker 1: sound enough mind in order to make these things. So

768
00:42:05,200 --> 00:42:08,319
Speaker 1: it's not without precedent in modern Russian history. Yea, it's

769
00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:10,560
Speaker 1: an interesting data point. One of the other things that's

770
00:42:10,600 --> 00:42:14,720
Speaker 1: been floated is that he was very isolated during COVID

771
00:42:14,920 --> 00:42:19,239
Speaker 1: and really restricted who was able to come and see him,

772
00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:23,239
Speaker 1: and that that has just removed him enough from you know,

773
00:42:23,360 --> 00:42:26,879
Speaker 1: his being connected to his own population that it has

774
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:31,680
Speaker 1: caused him to make some serious strategic miscalculations, which I think,

775
00:42:31,760 --> 00:42:34,160
Speaker 1: you know, anyone would have to acknowledge that this has

776
00:42:34,200 --> 00:42:38,120
Speaker 1: been so far disaster for Russia, again acknowledging that they

777
00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:41,680
Speaker 1: have a lot more military weaponry that they can certainly deploy.

778
00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:45,040
Speaker 1: But the economic front is very clear. I mean, Russia

779
00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:49,399
Speaker 1: is in dire straits economically, so there's been some speculation

780
00:42:49,719 --> 00:42:52,920
Speaker 1: that that isolation, you know, maybe fed into a paranoia

781
00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:56,239
Speaker 1: or even just disconnected him from the realities on the

782
00:42:56,280 --> 00:42:59,360
Speaker 1: ground and what public sentiment would be, and even what

783
00:42:59,480 --> 00:43:03,080
Speaker 1: sentiment is within his own sort of circles, and what

784
00:43:03,120 --> 00:43:06,120
Speaker 1: the oligarchs might think and all of that. And one

785
00:43:06,120 --> 00:43:08,760
Speaker 1: thing we can say for sure is he is getting older.

786
00:43:08,800 --> 00:43:12,560
Speaker 1: He probably is thinking about his legacy, and you know,

787
00:43:12,840 --> 00:43:18,279
Speaker 1: that can again create a dangerous situation here. And this,

788
00:43:18,440 --> 00:43:20,960
Speaker 1: I think is maybe of everything we're going to bring

789
00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:24,680
Speaker 1: you this morning, this next piece, Sager, is the most significant,

790
00:43:25,120 --> 00:43:28,440
Speaker 1: at least if you care about life continuing to exist

791
00:43:28,680 --> 00:43:32,799
Speaker 1: earth on the planet, which is the whole reason that

792
00:43:33,120 --> 00:43:36,279
Speaker 1: this crisis, why we have focused on it so intently,

793
00:43:36,880 --> 00:43:40,000
Speaker 1: is because Russia is a nuclear superpower, and when you

794
00:43:40,040 --> 00:43:43,080
Speaker 1: have two nuclear superpowers at odds with each other, that

795
00:43:43,200 --> 00:43:48,239
Speaker 1: is an extraordinarily dangerous situation. That's right, Let's go ahead

796
00:43:48,239 --> 00:43:50,200
Speaker 1: and move on to the nuclear side. As we found

797
00:43:50,239 --> 00:43:55,160
Speaker 1: out in nineteen fourteen, a small, isolated military incident in

798
00:43:55,200 --> 00:43:58,959
Speaker 1: Eastern Europe can soon become a global conflagration. Drawing in

799
00:43:59,200 --> 00:44:02,319
Speaker 1: the entire way. My greatest fear is that we are

800
00:44:02,360 --> 00:44:06,200
Speaker 1: at that situation and putin doing himself and the world

801
00:44:06,360 --> 00:44:10,040
Speaker 1: absolutely no favors in one of the most reckless statements

802
00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:12,759
Speaker 1: by our world leader in decades. Let's go ahead and

803
00:44:12,800 --> 00:44:16,120
Speaker 1: put this up there on the screen. Yesterday, Putin, in

804
00:44:16,200 --> 00:44:21,680
Speaker 1: response to Western sanctions, issued this threat. Quote, Western countries

805
00:44:21,719 --> 00:44:25,960
Speaker 1: aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but

806
00:44:26,160 --> 00:44:29,839
Speaker 1: leaders of major NATO countries are making aggressive statements about

807
00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:34,040
Speaker 1: our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrent forces

808
00:44:34,280 --> 00:44:37,960
Speaker 1: to a special regime of duty. And to be very clear,

809
00:44:38,239 --> 00:44:41,600
Speaker 1: he also said, quote, the consequences of this will be

810
00:44:41,719 --> 00:44:45,959
Speaker 1: such as you have never seen in your entire history,

811
00:44:46,040 --> 00:44:50,000
Speaker 1: meaning that this is an explicit order to Russia's are

812
00:44:50,200 --> 00:44:53,640
Speaker 1: nuclear arsenal to ready their to increase their state of

813
00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:59,280
Speaker 1: readiness basically to the second highest level that exists in Russia.

814
00:44:59,320 --> 00:45:00,680
Speaker 1: You know, here in the US we have the deaf

815
00:45:00,800 --> 00:45:05,000
Speaker 1: cons defense conditions. They are at the equivalent of where

816
00:45:05,000 --> 00:45:08,160
Speaker 1: we were during the Cuban missile crisis. Just so people

817
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:13,200
Speaker 1: can understand, this is an explicit nuclear threat by the

818
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:16,080
Speaker 1: leader who has his finger on the button of the

819
00:45:16,120 --> 00:45:19,319
Speaker 1: second largest nuclear arsenal in the world. I just checked

820
00:45:19,320 --> 00:45:22,240
Speaker 1: the stats this morning. The ninety percent of the world's

821
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:25,399
Speaker 1: nuclear weapons crystal are held by the United States and

822
00:45:25,520 --> 00:45:29,480
Speaker 1: by Russia. Do not underestimate their nuclear arsenal whatsoever. And

823
00:45:29,520 --> 00:45:32,840
Speaker 1: there are also several other traveling moves that have happened

824
00:45:32,880 --> 00:45:36,000
Speaker 1: just in the last in twenty four hours. So Belarus,

825
00:45:36,320 --> 00:45:39,920
Speaker 1: which is of course the neighboring country of Russia semi

826
00:45:39,920 --> 00:45:45,840
Speaker 1: client state, has actually changed its constitution in a constitutional referendum,

827
00:45:46,080 --> 00:45:50,759
Speaker 1: revoking its non nuclear status yesterday, paving the ways for

828
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:54,080
Speaker 1: Russian nuclear weapons in the country. Now, the reason that

829
00:45:54,120 --> 00:45:56,120
Speaker 1: this matters, let's pull this next one up there on

830
00:45:56,160 --> 00:46:00,800
Speaker 1: the screen, which is that because on the Putin nuclear threat,

831
00:46:01,160 --> 00:46:07,120
Speaker 1: Russia's military strategists have long complained about anti ballistic missile

832
00:46:07,160 --> 00:46:12,600
Speaker 1: systems near the Russian border. Given the Eastern the Baltic

833
00:46:12,640 --> 00:46:16,200
Speaker 1: States inclusion in NATO, they say that this gives the

834
00:46:16,320 --> 00:46:20,480
Speaker 1: US a first strike winnable capability. So when he's ordering

835
00:46:20,600 --> 00:46:24,120
Speaker 1: readiness and then also getting Belarus in order to revoke

836
00:46:24,360 --> 00:46:28,040
Speaker 1: their non nuclear status, we are talking about marching first

837
00:46:28,040 --> 00:46:32,840
Speaker 1: strike capability much closer to the west via Belarus Crystal.

838
00:46:32,880 --> 00:46:35,880
Speaker 1: We're talking about hundreds of miles, But that matters whenever

839
00:46:35,920 --> 00:46:37,879
Speaker 1: it comes down to the fractions of a second flight

840
00:46:37,920 --> 00:46:43,080
Speaker 1: time for intercontinental ballistic missiles. So all of this is terrifying. Now.

841
00:46:43,200 --> 00:46:46,400
Speaker 1: Luckily here in the US we did not respond with

842
00:46:46,480 --> 00:46:50,799
Speaker 1: an increase in our nuclear posture. The Pentagon, all indications

843
00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:54,200
Speaker 1: are we are de escalating. We seek no conflict with Russia,

844
00:46:54,520 --> 00:46:59,160
Speaker 1: no nuclear escalation. But this is saber rattling, I said decades,

845
00:46:59,160 --> 00:47:02,040
Speaker 1: But it's probably equivalent with Trump's fire and fury comment

846
00:47:02,080 --> 00:47:05,160
Speaker 1: in two thousand and seven. Incredibly dangerous, and that was

847
00:47:05,400 --> 00:47:08,840
Speaker 1: against a nation with one ICBM. People will take all

848
00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:11,800
Speaker 1: Los Angeles. The Russian nuclear arsenal can destroy the world

849
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:15,080
Speaker 1: ten times over. I think it's also important there with

850
00:47:15,160 --> 00:47:17,160
Speaker 1: regards to that last tweet we had up on the

851
00:47:17,200 --> 00:47:21,840
Speaker 1: screen we told you last week about that uh Polish,

852
00:47:21,840 --> 00:47:26,520
Speaker 1: that military installation in Poland that has been a source

853
00:47:26,719 --> 00:47:32,400
Speaker 1: of anxiety and an upset for Putin for the Russians

854
00:47:32,680 --> 00:47:36,040
Speaker 1: since it was ultimately put there. Now we say this

855
00:47:36,239 --> 00:47:39,440
Speaker 1: is anti ballistic missiles, that this is not about you,

856
00:47:39,520 --> 00:47:42,840
Speaker 1: this is about Iran. But they look at this, and

857
00:47:42,880 --> 00:47:44,560
Speaker 1: I think we would look at it the same way

858
00:47:44,600 --> 00:47:47,480
Speaker 1: and say, number one, we have no idea that you're

859
00:47:47,520 --> 00:47:49,319
Speaker 1: if you're telling us the truth, about that, well, this

860
00:47:49,360 --> 00:47:51,399
Speaker 1: was what happened in the Cuban missile qui exactly right,

861
00:47:51,520 --> 00:47:55,880
Speaker 1: exactly right. And number two, even if today it's anti

862
00:47:55,880 --> 00:47:59,440
Speaker 1: ballistic missiles, how do we know that you don't change

863
00:47:59,480 --> 00:48:02,360
Speaker 1: that recn figure it so that it represents a direct

864
00:48:02,440 --> 00:48:06,160
Speaker 1: threat to us. So again it's always important to the

865
00:48:06,239 --> 00:48:09,040
Speaker 1: larger picture context here in the immediate term, this is

866
00:48:09,160 --> 00:48:13,440
Speaker 1: all one hundred percent because of Putin's aggressive and unjustified

867
00:48:13,560 --> 00:48:16,719
Speaker 1: were against Ukraine. There are longer term factors here that

868
00:48:16,760 --> 00:48:19,600
Speaker 1: were exacerbating and created by the US that led us

869
00:48:19,640 --> 00:48:22,960
Speaker 1: to this extraordinarily dangerous situation, that being one of them.

870
00:48:23,320 --> 00:48:26,800
Speaker 1: One other piece here on you know how, you should

871
00:48:26,800 --> 00:48:29,600
Speaker 1: take this nuclear threat very seriously, even though, and we're

872
00:48:29,600 --> 00:48:31,799
Speaker 1: going to get to this too, there are voices in

873
00:48:31,960 --> 00:48:35,840
Speaker 1: the US media who were saying nuclear there, don't worry

874
00:48:35,880 --> 00:48:38,960
Speaker 1: about it, just sumbleuff. Don't take this guy seriously. You

875
00:48:39,000 --> 00:48:42,600
Speaker 1: should definitely take him seriously. There was a Russian state

876
00:48:42,719 --> 00:48:48,200
Speaker 1: TV presenter, Dmitri kiss leov I think, who delivered a

877
00:48:48,280 --> 00:48:51,440
Speaker 1: monologue in which he posed the question why do we

878
00:48:51,560 --> 00:48:55,440
Speaker 1: need a world if Russia's not in it? While he

879
00:48:55,520 --> 00:48:58,360
Speaker 1: was considering Putin's announcement that they were putting Russia's nuclear

880
00:48:58,400 --> 00:49:02,760
Speaker 1: forces on higher alert. In total, our submarines are capable

881
00:49:02,800 --> 00:49:06,920
Speaker 1: of launching over five hundred nuclear warheads, which guarantees the

882
00:49:07,000 --> 00:49:10,760
Speaker 1: destruction of the US and all NATO countries to boot.

883
00:49:11,160 --> 00:49:13,680
Speaker 1: That's according to the principle, why do we need a

884
00:49:13,719 --> 00:49:17,040
Speaker 1: world if Russia's not in it? So this is what

885
00:49:17,200 --> 00:49:21,680
Speaker 1: the Russian State TV propagandists. This is the type of

886
00:49:21,760 --> 00:49:27,839
Speaker 1: inflammatory and extraordinarily nihilistic rhetoric that they are using. So

887
00:49:27,960 --> 00:49:33,120
Speaker 1: make no mistake, this is a just insanely dangerous situation

888
00:49:33,480 --> 00:49:35,200
Speaker 1: that we are facing down right, And what did we

889
00:49:35,280 --> 00:49:38,160
Speaker 1: just tell you? Pudin is paranoid. He possibly, you know,

890
00:49:38,360 --> 00:49:42,480
Speaker 1: surrounded not birational voices. That's a nightmare scenario for a

891
00:49:42,520 --> 00:49:45,120
Speaker 1: man with the finger on the button. I mean, you

892
00:49:45,200 --> 00:49:48,480
Speaker 1: saw there the leader of the in that screenshot that

893
00:49:48,520 --> 00:49:51,480
Speaker 1: we showed you all, the head of Russia's nuclear program

894
00:49:51,800 --> 00:49:54,760
Speaker 1: and their equivalent to the Joint chiefs of Staff nodding,

895
00:49:54,960 --> 00:49:58,960
Speaker 1: you know, going along with this order. I actually pulled

896
00:49:59,040 --> 00:50:03,120
Speaker 1: a quote from Robert McNamara's The Fog of War. I

897
00:50:03,160 --> 00:50:05,440
Speaker 1: don't know if anybody's seen the documentary. I highly recommend

898
00:50:05,520 --> 00:50:08,680
Speaker 1: it and his review of the Cuban missile crisis. Here's

899
00:50:08,719 --> 00:50:11,319
Speaker 1: what he said, and this is very important, I want

900
00:50:11,360 --> 00:50:14,040
Speaker 1: to say, and this is very important. In the end,

901
00:50:14,239 --> 00:50:17,439
Speaker 1: we lucked out. It was luck that prevented nuclear war.

902
00:50:17,800 --> 00:50:19,960
Speaker 1: We came that close to nuclear war at the end.

903
00:50:20,000 --> 00:50:23,080
Speaker 1: And he holds his fingers up like this, rational individuals.

904
00:50:23,360 --> 00:50:27,960
Speaker 1: Kennedy was rational, Khrushcheff was rational, Castro was rational. That's

905
00:50:28,000 --> 00:50:30,920
Speaker 1: from Robert McNamara, the Secretary of Defense during Cuban missile crisis,

906
00:50:31,120 --> 00:50:34,359
Speaker 1: basically to Kael Airing, was we lucked out? I mean,

907
00:50:34,680 --> 00:50:38,160
Speaker 1: if anybody's read the history of the Cuban missile crisis,

908
00:50:38,440 --> 00:50:41,719
Speaker 1: you know if Kennedy responds to the aggressive telegram and

909
00:50:41,760 --> 00:50:45,120
Speaker 1: not the conciliatory telegram from Krshjev, none of us are

910
00:50:45,120 --> 00:50:48,480
Speaker 1: here right now. The city is gone. And this is

911
00:50:48,520 --> 00:50:52,200
Speaker 1: something which we cannot we have to take so incredibly

912
00:50:52,239 --> 00:50:55,200
Speaker 1: seriously because and these are what these idiots online are saying,

913
00:50:55,200 --> 00:50:57,839
Speaker 1: people like Luis Manch and Adam Kissinger being like, oh,

914
00:50:58,320 --> 00:51:00,880
Speaker 1: Adam Kissinger, who will get to this more says the

915
00:51:00,960 --> 00:51:03,759
Speaker 1: breathlessness over nukes is mind blowing. We used to call

916
00:51:03,800 --> 00:51:06,239
Speaker 1: his bluff. This is the Soviet cold war play to

917
00:51:06,280 --> 00:51:09,600
Speaker 1: make the public fear Russia. Yeah, we should fear Russia, Okay.

918
00:51:09,760 --> 00:51:12,400
Speaker 1: I mean, if the odds of nuclear war are one percent,

919
00:51:12,680 --> 00:51:16,640
Speaker 1: that's pretty high for the destruction of the entire world. Frankly,

920
00:51:16,680 --> 00:51:18,720
Speaker 1: I would put it higher than one percent right now.

921
00:51:18,840 --> 00:51:21,239
Speaker 1: And again, I do not want to scare you. It's

922
00:51:21,239 --> 00:51:23,439
Speaker 1: not like we have had times in our past where

923
00:51:23,440 --> 00:51:27,320
Speaker 1: eyeball to eyeball, checkpoint Charlie, the tanks standing next to

924
00:51:27,360 --> 00:51:30,439
Speaker 1: each other. We're not there, not there yet. It's possible, though,

925
00:51:30,600 --> 00:51:33,279
Speaker 1: and if it's within that realm of possibility, it is

926
00:51:33,360 --> 00:51:35,359
Speaker 1: the job of the West, of the leaders, and all

927
00:51:35,400 --> 00:51:38,520
Speaker 1: of us together to ensure that this doesn't happen. I

928
00:51:38,520 --> 00:51:40,799
Speaker 1: don't think the seriousness of this is sinking in for

929
00:51:40,840 --> 00:51:42,799
Speaker 1: a lot of people. We've not had to live with

930
00:51:42,880 --> 00:51:45,759
Speaker 1: the immediate threat of nuclear war in the West for

931
00:51:45,800 --> 00:51:49,960
Speaker 1: thirty something years, but it's back. Do not underestimate the

932
00:51:50,040 --> 00:51:53,040
Speaker 1: chances that this thing can go hot. This morning I

933
00:51:53,080 --> 00:51:55,640
Speaker 1: was reading a book called The Bomb by Fred Kaplan,

934
00:51:56,280 --> 00:51:59,080
Speaker 1: and actually, what's very important. I highly recommend the book,

935
00:51:59,080 --> 00:52:01,640
Speaker 1: by the way, it's a history of nuclear deterrence by

936
00:52:01,640 --> 00:52:04,319
Speaker 1: the United States, is very readable. What they point to

937
00:52:04,600 --> 00:52:08,960
Speaker 1: in the book is that nuclear annihilation is a core

938
00:52:09,280 --> 00:52:13,640
Speaker 1: military tenet of both the United States and Russia, not

939
00:52:13,680 --> 00:52:17,640
Speaker 1: only in terms of deterrence, but it's reflecting the mindset

940
00:52:17,640 --> 00:52:19,680
Speaker 1: of what you just pointed out there, which is that

941
00:52:19,960 --> 00:52:23,040
Speaker 1: what's the point of living if we can't exist? And

942
00:52:23,160 --> 00:52:27,760
Speaker 1: in that state, we are going to annihilate not only Russia,

943
00:52:28,080 --> 00:52:32,440
Speaker 1: but make Europe unlivable again. This is why the fact

944
00:52:32,440 --> 00:52:36,520
Speaker 1: that you know, putin things aren't going well and he's

945
00:52:36,520 --> 00:52:39,319
Speaker 1: backed into a corner's economy is collapsing, cut off from

946
00:52:39,360 --> 00:52:43,760
Speaker 1: the world. The military campaign is not going as quickly

947
00:52:43,800 --> 00:52:47,600
Speaker 1: as he had thought, even though they maintained vast military superiority.

948
00:52:48,000 --> 00:52:51,840
Speaker 1: That's why this is also dangerous. That's why the hawks

949
00:52:52,360 --> 00:52:55,319
Speaker 1: that are you know, beating their chests and floating no

950
00:52:55,440 --> 00:52:59,799
Speaker 1: fly zones and all of this total insanity, why we

951
00:52:59,840 --> 00:53:03,720
Speaker 1: have to very strongly push back against them, and why

952
00:53:03,800 --> 00:53:06,440
Speaker 1: even when it comes to the sanctions, we have to

953
00:53:06,560 --> 00:53:10,759
Speaker 1: walk very very carefully, because you do not want to

954
00:53:10,840 --> 00:53:16,160
Speaker 1: create a dangerous escalatory situation. Everyone should be committed to

955
00:53:16,560 --> 00:53:20,880
Speaker 1: de escalation whatever we can do to de escalate this conflict.

956
00:53:21,040 --> 00:53:23,480
Speaker 1: And on that note, you know some of the most

957
00:53:23,600 --> 00:53:27,680
Speaker 1: inspiring things that we've seen images coming out from around

958
00:53:27,760 --> 00:53:31,759
Speaker 1: the world of anti war protesters, and of course the

959
00:53:32,280 --> 00:53:35,480
Speaker 1: ones that are most heartening and most inspiring are those

960
00:53:35,520 --> 00:53:39,840
Speaker 1: protesters who have come out in Russia itself. Let's go

961
00:53:39,840 --> 00:53:42,920
Speaker 1: ahead and put this vo up where you can see.

962
00:53:42,920 --> 00:53:47,120
Speaker 1: This is just one of many protests across the country

963
00:53:47,239 --> 00:53:50,360
Speaker 1: in Russia. Keep in mind, I mean there are reports

964
00:53:50,400 --> 00:53:54,439
Speaker 1: that over five thousand people have already been arrested. Of course,

965
00:53:54,480 --> 00:53:58,960
Speaker 1: there's been reports of police brutality. This is an extraordinarily

966
00:53:59,080 --> 00:54:04,280
Speaker 1: courageous thing to do to come out in Russia, in Moscow,

967
00:54:04,400 --> 00:54:08,120
Speaker 1: in Saint Petersburg and say no to war. And we

968
00:54:08,200 --> 00:54:14,480
Speaker 1: have seen day after day after day courageous regular Russian citizens,

969
00:54:14,680 --> 00:54:17,360
Speaker 1: some of whom say they've never been to a protest before,

970
00:54:17,840 --> 00:54:22,360
Speaker 1: coming out to express their upset over what has happened here.

971
00:54:22,480 --> 00:54:26,279
Speaker 1: And remember, I mean, part of what went wrong for

972
00:54:26,360 --> 00:54:29,319
Speaker 1: Putin in terms of selling the population on this is

973
00:54:29,320 --> 00:54:33,040
Speaker 1: that they were not able to fully lay the propaganda

974
00:54:33,360 --> 00:54:37,400
Speaker 1: groundwork in order to persuade their population that this was

975
00:54:37,440 --> 00:54:40,240
Speaker 1: truly a just war, that it was necessary that they were,

976
00:54:40,480 --> 00:54:44,560
Speaker 1: you know, righteously going into Ukraine. Here there had been

977
00:54:44,600 --> 00:54:47,120
Speaker 1: all those reports from the intelligence community that oh, they're

978
00:54:47,120 --> 00:54:49,120
Speaker 1: going to stage this big false flag and say that, oh,

979
00:54:49,160 --> 00:54:51,520
Speaker 1: we have to go in because there's genocide going on

980
00:54:51,560 --> 00:54:54,520
Speaker 1: and we have to save the Russian nationals from the

981
00:54:54,640 --> 00:54:59,120
Speaker 1: Ukrainian uber nationalists. They weren't really able to pull that off,

982
00:54:59,480 --> 00:55:01,759
Speaker 1: and so now they've sort of told the population, oh,

983
00:55:01,760 --> 00:55:04,200
Speaker 1: this is just a peacekeeping mission. And you've got a

984
00:55:04,200 --> 00:55:06,240
Speaker 1: lot of people who are looking at the same social

985
00:55:06,280 --> 00:55:09,080
Speaker 1: media videos and things that are coming out that we

986
00:55:09,200 --> 00:55:12,000
Speaker 1: are that can see very clearly this is way beyond

987
00:55:12,040 --> 00:55:16,239
Speaker 1: a peacekeeping mission. Uh. And there are deep ties obviously

988
00:55:16,320 --> 00:55:19,880
Speaker 1: between Russia and Ukraine. A lot of the language I

989
00:55:19,920 --> 00:55:23,360
Speaker 1: heard repeatedly soger from people was these are our brothers,

990
00:55:23,600 --> 00:55:25,560
Speaker 1: you know, people who grew up in Ukraine, who have

991
00:55:25,680 --> 00:55:28,319
Speaker 1: family that are long culture, who are you know, in

992
00:55:28,400 --> 00:55:32,120
Speaker 1: communication with little you know, cousins and brothers and sisters

993
00:55:32,160 --> 00:55:34,480
Speaker 1: who were there, who are terrified, who are fearing for

994
00:55:34,560 --> 00:55:38,400
Speaker 1: their lives. So we have no way of knowing what

995
00:55:38,640 --> 00:55:43,440
Speaker 1: percent of the population disagrees with this action, but I

996
00:55:43,440 --> 00:55:46,120
Speaker 1: think because of there have been thousands of people coming

997
00:55:46,160 --> 00:55:50,120
Speaker 1: out in the streets facing very severe consequences for these actions.

998
00:55:50,120 --> 00:55:52,560
Speaker 1: You can say, there is at least a significant chunk

999
00:55:52,600 --> 00:55:54,840
Speaker 1: of the Russian population that is not on board with

1000
00:55:54,880 --> 00:55:58,520
Speaker 1: this at all. We've also seen Russian celebrities kind of

1001
00:55:58,800 --> 00:56:00,759
Speaker 1: led the way. I mean, they're you know, doing this

1002
00:56:00,840 --> 00:56:04,600
Speaker 1: from safe locales overseas and unlikely to be arrested in

1003
00:56:04,640 --> 00:56:06,520
Speaker 1: the same way that these individuals are. But this is

1004
00:56:06,560 --> 00:56:10,040
Speaker 1: also really family again. Yeah, this also takes you know,

1005
00:56:10,160 --> 00:56:13,040
Speaker 1: a lot of courage and can mean a lot and

1006
00:56:13,120 --> 00:56:15,200
Speaker 1: can kind of provide a spark and help to bolster

1007
00:56:15,280 --> 00:56:18,640
Speaker 1: a population in their ability to dissent. So a tennis

1008
00:56:18,640 --> 00:56:22,799
Speaker 1: star Andre Rubelev was at a tournament in Dubai over

1009
00:56:22,840 --> 00:56:25,440
Speaker 1: the weekend and after his victory, take a look at

1010
00:56:25,480 --> 00:56:28,919
Speaker 1: what he writes on the camera two sets, but said

1011
00:56:29,000 --> 00:56:38,840
Speaker 1: not so fast that they might just have a message.

1012
00:56:39,560 --> 00:56:48,520
Speaker 1: Andre ruled everything get behind that the Russian and I

1013
00:56:48,560 --> 00:56:52,279
Speaker 1: saw medved he wrote no more war. After those who

1014
00:56:52,280 --> 00:56:54,600
Speaker 1: are listening, writes no more war on the camera lens

1015
00:56:54,600 --> 00:56:57,280
Speaker 1: there for everyone to see. I saw Dmitri. Medvedev also

1016
00:56:57,480 --> 00:57:00,560
Speaker 1: bates upcomments saying, you know, as a tennis player and

1017
00:57:00,719 --> 00:57:04,080
Speaker 1: someone who cares about travel, you know, being an international figure,

1018
00:57:04,360 --> 00:57:08,520
Speaker 1: I always want peace. We also had Alexander Ovenchkin, who

1019
00:57:08,600 --> 00:57:11,799
Speaker 1: is a hockey player for the Washington Capitals. Let's put

1020
00:57:11,800 --> 00:57:14,480
Speaker 1: this next tweet up on the screen, he wrote on

1021
00:57:14,520 --> 00:57:17,520
Speaker 1: his Instagram. He shared a picture of himself and the

1022
00:57:17,560 --> 00:57:21,960
Speaker 1: caption says, please no more war, Alexander A Vengkins. So

1023
00:57:22,680 --> 00:57:27,200
Speaker 1: these signs of dissent within the Russian population are significant. Again,

1024
00:57:27,240 --> 00:57:28,760
Speaker 1: we don't want to oversell it here. That you have

1025
00:57:28,800 --> 00:57:31,520
Speaker 1: a couple of the oligarchs that you have, you know,

1026
00:57:31,600 --> 00:57:34,720
Speaker 1: thousands of people in the streets willing to risk arrests,

1027
00:57:35,080 --> 00:57:37,760
Speaker 1: that you have a significant number of sort of Russian

1028
00:57:37,760 --> 00:57:40,200
Speaker 1: celebrities who are coming out against the war. These are

1029
00:57:40,240 --> 00:57:43,040
Speaker 1: all significant things, but we also don't want to oversell

1030
00:57:43,080 --> 00:57:44,880
Speaker 1: it and make it look like, you know, Putin's about

1031
00:57:44,880 --> 00:57:47,800
Speaker 1: to his regime is about to topple any day now, right, Yeah.

1032
00:57:47,840 --> 00:57:50,880
Speaker 1: And the important part on that one is that the

1033
00:57:50,920 --> 00:57:54,600
Speaker 1: celebrities themselves, especially at Vechkin, he was very tight with Putin,

1034
00:57:54,720 --> 00:57:56,760
Speaker 1: you know, long we take pictures with him, and he

1035
00:57:56,800 --> 00:57:59,640
Speaker 1: would and all that. It's part of their soft power

1036
00:58:00,400 --> 00:58:03,320
Speaker 1: across the globe. So to have them speak out is incredibly,

1037
00:58:03,720 --> 00:58:07,560
Speaker 1: incredibly significant. And the current numbers are about fifty five

1038
00:58:07,680 --> 00:58:11,440
Speaker 1: hundred people have been detained at various anti war protests

1039
00:58:11,920 --> 00:58:15,520
Speaker 1: since the invasion began on Thursday. That is according to

1040
00:58:15,720 --> 00:58:18,920
Speaker 1: an open source information monitor. There is no way to know.

1041
00:58:19,240 --> 00:58:21,680
Speaker 1: We shouldn't oversell it. It's not like there are hundreds

1042
00:58:21,680 --> 00:58:24,360
Speaker 1: of thousands of people. But these people are very, very

1043
00:58:24,360 --> 00:58:27,960
Speaker 1: brave in order to come out, given the consequences of

1044
00:58:28,080 --> 00:58:29,880
Speaker 1: what it means to come out and what it means

1045
00:58:29,920 --> 00:58:32,120
Speaker 1: to get arrested. You know, the fact that you even

1046
00:58:32,200 --> 00:58:34,560
Speaker 1: have thousands of people on the streets is pretty extordinary. Oh,

1047
00:58:34,560 --> 00:58:38,320
Speaker 1: it's completely extraordinary. And we also see protests all arrests

1048
00:58:38,360 --> 00:58:41,720
Speaker 1: across the world, especially also in Belarus. Let's go ahead

1049
00:58:41,720 --> 00:58:43,800
Speaker 1: and put this up there on the screen, which as

1050
00:58:43,880 --> 00:58:47,720
Speaker 1: you saw, thousands of people gathered here surrounding the Defense

1051
00:58:47,840 --> 00:58:52,680
Speaker 1: ministry in Belarus actually chanting glory to Ukraine. Again, these

1052
00:58:52,800 --> 00:58:56,560
Speaker 1: are the real heroic protesters. They face actual jail time.

1053
00:58:56,960 --> 00:58:59,160
Speaker 1: I just saw this morning at Times of London correspondent

1054
00:58:59,160 --> 00:59:01,960
Speaker 1: it was detained at the protests, took a photo with

1055
00:59:02,000 --> 00:59:04,320
Speaker 1: his friends from the protests in the prison. He's like,

1056
00:59:04,640 --> 00:59:07,000
Speaker 1: I get to leave because I'm a foreign journalist. He's like, not,

1057
00:59:07,120 --> 00:59:09,520
Speaker 1: my friends, they're going to be in there for a

1058
00:59:09,560 --> 00:59:12,440
Speaker 1: long time, and they're not the only ones. The important

1059
00:59:12,480 --> 00:59:15,880
Speaker 1: thing is, and we talked about this before when I

1060
00:59:15,960 --> 00:59:18,520
Speaker 1: was talking about Europe Asleep at the Wheel, I was like,

1061
00:59:18,560 --> 00:59:21,480
Speaker 1: where are the protests in Berlin? You know? I was like,

1062
00:59:21,560 --> 00:59:24,680
Speaker 1: you people all marched against the war in Iraq. I

1063
00:59:24,760 --> 00:59:26,920
Speaker 1: supported that, and I'm like, but you're about to have

1064
00:59:27,040 --> 00:59:30,400
Speaker 1: war on your continent and you're not doing anything. Well,

1065
00:59:30,560 --> 00:59:33,040
Speaker 1: they showed up in a big way. Let's put this

1066
00:59:33,160 --> 00:59:36,640
Speaker 1: up there, side by side images there from Berlin and

1067
00:59:36,840 --> 00:59:39,840
Speaker 1: from Prague. Prague obviously have its own history of being

1068
00:59:39,840 --> 00:59:44,120
Speaker 1: conquered and invaded by the Russians, but those Berlin protests

1069
00:59:44,400 --> 00:59:48,920
Speaker 1: are very significant because they show that the maximal pressure

1070
00:59:49,200 --> 00:59:52,080
Speaker 1: that is now being put on the government is from

1071
00:59:52,120 --> 00:59:55,960
Speaker 1: the population itself. It's not top down. The German people,

1072
00:59:56,240 --> 00:59:59,680
Speaker 1: by all accounts, here very outraged about what's happening in Ukraine.

1073
00:59:59,640 --> 01:00:03,360
Speaker 1: Obviously the East Germans, anybody with history understands what it's

1074
01:00:03,360 --> 01:00:06,520
Speaker 1: like to live under Soviet occupation. But what's important to

1075
01:00:06,640 --> 01:00:10,320
Speaker 1: understand is that the groundswell of public opinion in Paris,

1076
01:00:10,400 --> 01:00:13,440
Speaker 1: in London, and in Berlin is all on the sides

1077
01:00:13,520 --> 01:00:17,360
Speaker 1: of definitely the most hawkish positions within Europe. That's what

1078
01:00:17,360 --> 01:00:18,960
Speaker 1: I'm going to be talking a lot about my monologue.

1079
01:00:18,960 --> 01:00:21,040
Speaker 1: It's part of the reason why what Putin didda is

1080
01:00:21,080 --> 01:00:25,960
Speaker 1: so dumb. Yeah, according to media reports, one hundred thousand

1081
01:00:26,040 --> 01:00:29,840
Speaker 1: people at least came out in Berlin, seventy thousand in Prague.

1082
01:00:29,880 --> 01:00:33,120
Speaker 1: I mean that's amazing, It's really amazing. And this is

1083
01:00:33,400 --> 01:00:38,200
Speaker 1: just a tiny sample of the protest images and video

1084
01:00:38,280 --> 01:00:41,360
Speaker 1: that we could have shown you, because they literally were global.

1085
01:00:41,400 --> 01:00:43,440
Speaker 1: I mean there was not one corner of the globe

1086
01:00:43,440 --> 01:00:46,640
Speaker 1: that did not have some form of anti war protest.

1087
01:00:47,360 --> 01:00:49,920
Speaker 1: I saw people protesting in Japan. There were even a

1088
01:00:49,960 --> 01:00:53,080
Speaker 1: few extremely brave souls in Chinago. So there's one guy

1089
01:00:53,120 --> 01:00:56,160
Speaker 1: in China doing it. Bro, just I urge you, you're

1090
01:00:56,160 --> 01:01:01,280
Speaker 1: a hero, but stay home. Man protests in New York,

1091
01:01:01,400 --> 01:01:05,600
Speaker 1: I mean, really all over the world. So again, I

1092
01:01:05,640 --> 01:01:10,800
Speaker 1: don't know that Putin expected this level of global backlash,

1093
01:01:10,960 --> 01:01:15,000
Speaker 1: including from his own population. No, it really has not.

1094
01:01:15,200 --> 01:01:17,800
Speaker 1: And you know, I keep thinking back to there was

1095
01:01:19,400 --> 01:01:23,240
Speaker 1: what Putin seems in his nineteenth century mindset. Something he's

1096
01:01:23,280 --> 01:01:26,000
Speaker 1: forgetting is that in the stark age of the Internet,

1097
01:01:26,280 --> 01:01:29,920
Speaker 1: when you can see an image of kit I'm not

1098
01:01:29,920 --> 01:01:32,640
Speaker 1: saying it's enough to bring the full force to bear.

1099
01:01:32,720 --> 01:01:34,840
Speaker 1: You know, we will all watch what happened in Syria

1100
01:01:34,920 --> 01:01:37,160
Speaker 1: and look, that situation was complicated, So I'm not saying

1101
01:01:37,160 --> 01:01:40,000
Speaker 1: anything should have been done. But you can have mass

1102
01:01:40,040 --> 01:01:44,120
Speaker 1: genocide as we've seen also campaigns in Yemen elsewhere, but

1103
01:01:44,680 --> 01:01:49,960
Speaker 1: if enough people catch on care, you will have significant backlash.

1104
01:01:50,080 --> 01:01:52,720
Speaker 1: And that is what I think he is underestimated, which

1105
01:01:52,760 --> 01:01:54,400
Speaker 1: is that in the age of the Internet, we found

1106
01:01:54,400 --> 01:01:56,240
Speaker 1: this out too in Iraq in two thousand and three

1107
01:01:56,480 --> 01:01:59,560
Speaker 1: when there are cameras, and same in Afghanistan. There's a

1108
01:01:59,560 --> 01:02:01,120
Speaker 1: lot of stuff that you just can't get away with

1109
01:02:01,200 --> 01:02:04,200
Speaker 1: that you used to be able to in the nineteenth century.

1110
01:02:04,240 --> 01:02:05,920
Speaker 1: So that's one of the updates that you have to

1111
01:02:05,920 --> 01:02:09,160
Speaker 1: make in modern warfare. They clearly there's clearly a significant

1112
01:02:09,240 --> 01:02:11,480
Speaker 1: chunk of the Russian population that is not buying this

1113
01:02:11,680 --> 01:02:15,760
Speaker 1: is a peacekeeping and they're about to suffering, like really suffer.

1114
01:02:16,280 --> 01:02:18,160
Speaker 1: I feel so bad. I want to say this too

1115
01:02:18,400 --> 01:02:20,680
Speaker 1: for these young Russians, because we're about to talk about this.

1116
01:02:21,600 --> 01:02:23,800
Speaker 1: They are I mean a whole generation of people my

1117
01:02:23,920 --> 01:02:27,720
Speaker 1: age and your age. They did not deserve this. They're

1118
01:02:27,720 --> 01:02:31,720
Speaker 1: westernized in many ways, right, Like they want to be

1119
01:02:31,760 --> 01:02:35,120
Speaker 1: able to travel to the West, and they like exchange

1120
01:02:35,120 --> 01:02:39,080
Speaker 1: programs and doing business and having the connections of a

1121
01:02:39,160 --> 01:02:42,600
Speaker 1: global capitalism. That's dead for them. They're going straight back

1122
01:02:42,640 --> 01:02:45,040
Speaker 1: to the days of autarchy in a blink of an eye.

1123
01:02:45,280 --> 01:02:49,200
Speaker 1: Feel really bad it is. I mean, they're suffering already.

1124
01:02:49,240 --> 01:02:53,000
Speaker 1: They're suffering when you see the massive crash in the

1125
01:02:53,000 --> 01:02:55,720
Speaker 1: financial situation of Russia that has happened in the blink

1126
01:02:55,760 --> 01:02:58,760
Speaker 1: of an eye. That's right, Okay, let's get to the warmongering.

1127
01:02:58,960 --> 01:03:02,400
Speaker 1: This is Look for all of we've been talking about

1128
01:03:02,640 --> 01:03:05,800
Speaker 1: Putin and his folly, don't worry. We've got plenty of

1129
01:03:05,840 --> 01:03:09,400
Speaker 1: neocons here in DC who are calling for some of

1130
01:03:09,480 --> 01:03:13,360
Speaker 1: the most inflammatory actions I've ever seen. And the cavalier

1131
01:03:13,400 --> 01:03:18,800
Speaker 1: attitude that they have towards nuclear war is unbelievable, disgusting.

1132
01:03:18,920 --> 01:03:21,280
Speaker 1: Let's go back to mister Adam Kissinger, who's now a

1133
01:03:21,360 --> 01:03:23,800
Speaker 1: freaking hero here in DC because he stood up to

1134
01:03:23,840 --> 01:03:26,240
Speaker 1: Trump on January sixth. Let's put this up there on

1135
01:03:26,280 --> 01:03:29,360
Speaker 1: the screen. The fate of Ukraine is being decided tonight,

1136
01:03:29,640 --> 01:03:32,240
Speaker 1: but also the fate of the West. Declare a no

1137
01:03:32,440 --> 01:03:37,720
Speaker 1: fly zone over Ukraine at the invitation of their sovereign government. Rush,

1138
01:03:37,960 --> 01:03:43,280
Speaker 1: disrupt Russia's air ops, give heroic Ukrainians a fair fight.

1139
01:03:43,680 --> 01:03:47,160
Speaker 1: It's now or later what he is saying there when

1140
01:03:47,200 --> 01:03:49,240
Speaker 1: you declare a no fly zone. This was once Hillary

1141
01:03:49,240 --> 01:03:55,000
Speaker 1: Clinton's policy over Syria was to shoot down Russian aircraft

1142
01:03:55,320 --> 01:04:01,320
Speaker 1: conducting operations over Ukraine. If we kinetically engage Russia, we

1143
01:04:01,400 --> 01:04:04,040
Speaker 1: are at war with that nation. And as I told

1144
01:04:04,040 --> 01:04:09,760
Speaker 1: you during the Nuclear block, any military doctrine of the

1145
01:04:09,880 --> 01:04:14,080
Speaker 1: United States and Russia is that in a confrontation between

1146
01:04:14,080 --> 01:04:18,120
Speaker 1: our countries, it will result in nuclear annihilation. That is

1147
01:04:18,240 --> 01:04:21,240
Speaker 1: core military doctrine going all the way back to the

1148
01:04:21,320 --> 01:04:24,600
Speaker 1: days of the Soviet Union. It does not end in

1149
01:04:24,640 --> 01:04:27,800
Speaker 1: any way except hundreds of millions of people dead. And

1150
01:04:27,840 --> 01:04:29,560
Speaker 1: by the way, I live like a mile from the Pentagon,

1151
01:04:29,680 --> 01:04:33,600
Speaker 1: so if it happens, I'm god, So I'm sorry everybody.

1152
01:04:33,680 --> 01:04:36,680
Speaker 1: I won't be surviving that one. It's important in order

1153
01:04:36,720 --> 01:04:41,800
Speaker 1: to understand just how grave this situation is and just

1154
01:04:42,000 --> 01:04:48,640
Speaker 1: how dangerous these calls that are institutionalized are now. Look. Luckily,

1155
01:04:48,680 --> 01:04:51,720
Speaker 1: the Biden administration has continued to rule out there will

1156
01:04:51,760 --> 01:04:54,880
Speaker 1: be no US troops all of that that's great. However,

1157
01:04:55,800 --> 01:04:58,680
Speaker 1: the latter calls there's being no debate about this. We

1158
01:04:58,760 --> 01:05:02,080
Speaker 1: are shipping Stinger MISSI right now to Ukraine. There's a

1159
01:05:02,120 --> 01:05:04,680
Speaker 1: debate to be had about that. There's apparently a big

1160
01:05:04,680 --> 01:05:08,480
Speaker 1: debate within the NSC, the National Security Council, under whether

1161
01:05:08,640 --> 01:05:12,320
Speaker 1: under international law that would make us a co combatant

1162
01:05:12,600 --> 01:05:15,360
Speaker 1: in what's happening in Ukraine. Now, that's actually pretty up

1163
01:05:15,360 --> 01:05:18,680
Speaker 1: for debate. But as we found out, at least in

1164
01:05:18,680 --> 01:05:20,919
Speaker 1: Afghanistan and all that, you know, there was never any

1165
01:05:20,960 --> 01:05:24,080
Speaker 1: direct retaliation against US, even though you know, there definitely

1166
01:05:24,160 --> 01:05:27,080
Speaker 1: was Soviet support for the North Vietnamese Army and it

1167
01:05:27,120 --> 01:05:29,800
Speaker 1: did stay in a proxy conflict. But when somebody is

1168
01:05:29,880 --> 01:05:33,160
Speaker 1: crazy and when somebody is unstable, they could use that

1169
01:05:33,200 --> 01:05:36,120
Speaker 1: as a pretext to then target the United States. And

1170
01:05:36,160 --> 01:05:38,520
Speaker 1: it doesn't even have to be militarily, as you said,

1171
01:05:38,760 --> 01:05:41,360
Speaker 1: there can be cyber attacks. They could take down our grid,

1172
01:05:41,640 --> 01:05:44,640
Speaker 1: they could disrupt our banking system. You could take down

1173
01:05:44,640 --> 01:05:47,800
Speaker 1: the Nasdaq in the stock market and wreak financial havoc.

1174
01:05:48,360 --> 01:05:51,280
Speaker 1: You could take down Germany, I mean in their financial system,

1175
01:05:51,280 --> 01:05:54,600
Speaker 1: and that would cascade over here. There's all sorts of

1176
01:05:54,640 --> 01:05:58,880
Speaker 1: different outcomes through which this can happen, and we continue

1177
01:05:58,920 --> 01:06:00,920
Speaker 1: to see Let's also I'll put that next one up

1178
01:06:00,920 --> 01:06:04,760
Speaker 1: there I alluded to around nuclear war whenever he says

1179
01:06:05,000 --> 01:06:07,360
Speaker 1: the breathlessness over nukes is mind blowing. We used to

1180
01:06:07,400 --> 01:06:10,880
Speaker 1: call this bluff, and Luis Mensch saying very very you know,

1181
01:06:11,440 --> 01:06:14,360
Speaker 1: she's so sure about this. Putin's not going to fire

1182
01:06:14,400 --> 01:06:17,320
Speaker 1: a nuke? Can everybody please get real? If he tries,

1183
01:06:17,600 --> 01:06:21,000
Speaker 1: he will be eliminated. Well, yeah he will, but so

1184
01:06:21,120 --> 01:06:23,360
Speaker 1: will a lot of other people in Russia and here

1185
01:06:23,400 --> 01:06:27,600
Speaker 1: in Washington. So this again, you cannot speak this way

1186
01:06:28,160 --> 01:06:32,000
Speaker 1: whenever we are talking about hundreds of millions of people

1187
01:06:32,480 --> 01:06:37,520
Speaker 1: dying in thermo nuclear war, and we continue to see

1188
01:06:38,200 --> 01:06:40,920
Speaker 1: maximalist calls from a lot of people who are at

1189
01:06:40,960 --> 01:06:43,480
Speaker 1: the top of Russia Gate Crystal. Yeah, well that's exactly,

1190
01:06:43,840 --> 01:06:47,120
Speaker 1: and that's an important point. I mean, let's make it

1191
01:06:47,160 --> 01:06:51,240
Speaker 1: totally clear. Adam Kinzinger resistance hero is calling for World

1192
01:06:51,320 --> 01:06:55,840
Speaker 1: War three. That's what this amounts to. And so I'm

1193
01:06:55,920 --> 01:06:58,400
Speaker 1: very post to cancel culture. People can voice their views,

1194
01:06:58,400 --> 01:07:01,120
Speaker 1: but if you're going to cancel anyone, give this guy

1195
01:07:01,800 --> 01:07:03,960
Speaker 1: off of Twitter, and certainly don't book him on your

1196
01:07:04,000 --> 01:07:06,320
Speaker 1: cable news show so that he can spelt this type

1197
01:07:06,320 --> 01:07:12,440
Speaker 1: of absolute insanity, I mean total insanity here, and to

1198
01:07:12,520 --> 01:07:15,280
Speaker 1: do it so casually. This is not a game a game,

1199
01:07:15,360 --> 01:07:17,600
Speaker 1: This is not a joke, and this is not a game.

1200
01:07:18,160 --> 01:07:21,560
Speaker 1: We should be looking for every possible way that we

1201
01:07:21,680 --> 01:07:24,280
Speaker 1: can de escalate this situation. And that's why I'm so

1202
01:07:24,400 --> 01:07:27,640
Speaker 1: nervous about some of the harshness of these sanctions, some

1203
01:07:27,680 --> 01:07:30,120
Speaker 1: of the measures that are being taken, including fighter jets

1204
01:07:30,320 --> 01:07:33,560
Speaker 1: being sent over from the EU and our stinger missiles,

1205
01:07:33,560 --> 01:07:38,880
Speaker 1: because you are just creating an escalatory ladder rather than

1206
01:07:38,920 --> 01:07:41,560
Speaker 1: trying to find ways to de escalate the situation. So

1207
01:07:42,040 --> 01:07:46,880
Speaker 1: these people are completely reckless, they are completely insane, and

1208
01:07:46,960 --> 01:07:50,560
Speaker 1: everyone who had a role in helping to elevate them

1209
01:07:50,840 --> 01:07:54,480
Speaker 1: into these figures of esteem with a massive part of

1210
01:07:54,520 --> 01:07:57,600
Speaker 1: the population, I mean, this is what you get for that,

1211
01:07:58,000 --> 01:08:00,160
Speaker 1: This is who you have elevated. And of course it

1212
01:08:00,160 --> 01:08:04,600
Speaker 1: goes way beyond adding Adam Kinzinger. But by making it

1213
01:08:04,800 --> 01:08:07,440
Speaker 1: just hey, if you're against Trump, then we like you.

1214
01:08:07,440 --> 01:08:10,040
Speaker 1: You've put all of these neocons with the worst and

1215
01:08:10,120 --> 01:08:14,360
Speaker 1: most dangerous possible foreign policy views into positions of power

1216
01:08:14,840 --> 01:08:18,360
Speaker 1: with a large portion of the democratic and liberal base.

1217
01:08:18,439 --> 01:08:21,639
Speaker 1: And the other piece of this is again we've sort

1218
01:08:21,640 --> 01:08:24,840
Speaker 1: of been operating today under the assumption that okay, well

1219
01:08:24,920 --> 01:08:27,800
Speaker 1: something's going to happen. You know, Ukraine is where the

1220
01:08:27,840 --> 01:08:30,880
Speaker 1: action's at, and that's it. We don't know that. We

1221
01:08:31,000 --> 01:08:34,000
Speaker 1: do not know that. Especially you know, we were people

1222
01:08:34,040 --> 01:08:37,000
Speaker 1: who were very skeptical that Putin would do even what

1223
01:08:37,280 --> 01:08:41,960
Speaker 1: he has done, because it was such an insane move. Ultimately,

1224
01:08:42,360 --> 01:08:45,559
Speaker 1: who is to say that he stays in Ukraine, that

1225
01:08:45,680 --> 01:08:48,040
Speaker 1: one of the dangerous sort of lashing out moves that

1226
01:08:48,080 --> 01:08:50,760
Speaker 1: he doesn't make is going after let's say Moldova or

1227
01:08:50,800 --> 01:08:54,320
Speaker 1: doing something, you know, skirmish on the border of Poland.

1228
01:08:55,320 --> 01:08:59,120
Speaker 1: Then then what sort of pressure are is Biden going

1229
01:08:59,200 --> 01:09:02,520
Speaker 1: to be under to actually directly engage us into this conflict.

1230
01:09:02,640 --> 01:09:05,519
Speaker 1: So these people need to be shamed, they need to

1231
01:09:05,520 --> 01:09:07,799
Speaker 1: be shunned, they need to be called down every single

1232
01:09:07,840 --> 01:09:12,080
Speaker 1: time they make one of these absolutely insane suggestions of hey,

1233
01:09:12,439 --> 01:09:14,599
Speaker 1: how about we casually get ourselves into World War three

1234
01:09:14,640 --> 01:09:16,599
Speaker 1: and oh, by the way, don't worry about the Dukes. Yeah,

1235
01:09:16,640 --> 01:09:21,160
Speaker 1: that's that's really the biggest You can't overstate that. And

1236
01:09:21,479 --> 01:09:23,680
Speaker 1: you know, another Russia gator, Crystal, who you found let's

1237
01:09:23,680 --> 01:09:25,640
Speaker 1: put this up there. Eric Swalwell, let's put it out

1238
01:09:25,680 --> 01:09:28,519
Speaker 1: on the screen, says that we should quote kick every

1239
01:09:28,680 --> 01:09:33,840
Speaker 1: Russian student out of universities in retaliation against Vladimir Putin.

1240
01:09:34,160 --> 01:09:37,240
Speaker 1: Look the oligarchs and their kids. Yeah, get them the

1241
01:09:37,280 --> 01:09:40,360
Speaker 1: hell out of here. Okay, in terms of punishing those people,

1242
01:09:40,560 --> 01:09:43,680
Speaker 1: But like I just said, I mean, these younger Russians,

1243
01:09:43,920 --> 01:09:46,280
Speaker 1: as long as they're not spies or have you know,

1244
01:09:46,360 --> 01:09:49,639
Speaker 1: like whatever allegiance to the Russian government and are here studying,

1245
01:09:50,040 --> 01:09:52,280
Speaker 1: leave these people alone. Yeah, I mean, and you know,

1246
01:09:53,479 --> 01:09:58,639
Speaker 1: their lives, their generation and all that is completely getting

1247
01:09:58,680 --> 01:10:03,559
Speaker 1: destroyed domestically. These types of calls are vindictive, are It's

1248
01:10:03,600 --> 01:10:06,320
Speaker 1: the type of mindset which led to what the Aliens

1249
01:10:06,479 --> 01:10:09,160
Speaker 1: edition acts and some of the worst periods of our history.

1250
01:10:09,479 --> 01:10:12,040
Speaker 1: And we should remember that, you know, our beef is

1251
01:10:12,040 --> 01:10:14,360
Speaker 1: not with the Russian people. The Russian people did nothing

1252
01:10:14,439 --> 01:10:18,880
Speaker 1: wrong here. And I saw the swell Well thing kick

1253
01:10:18,920 --> 01:10:21,880
Speaker 1: every Russian student out of universities. I mean, it's just

1254
01:10:22,280 --> 01:10:26,320
Speaker 1: remarkable how sort of casually they go to these extraordinarily

1255
01:10:26,680 --> 01:10:29,680
Speaker 1: xenophobic places after spending a lot of time, you know,

1256
01:10:29,720 --> 01:10:33,160
Speaker 1: decrying that sort of language and behavior from Trump and

1257
01:10:33,200 --> 01:10:35,960
Speaker 1: his allies. So someone else on Twitter was like, sees

1258
01:10:36,080 --> 01:10:39,120
Speaker 1: all their property, you know, kick them out of schools.

1259
01:10:39,160 --> 01:10:42,160
Speaker 1: I mean just sort of competing. This is this is

1260
01:10:42,160 --> 01:10:46,320
Speaker 1: what's happening in that segment of the liberal ecosystem. Is

1261
01:10:46,360 --> 01:10:49,280
Speaker 1: they're competing to show how cruel they compete to the

1262
01:10:49,320 --> 01:10:53,639
Speaker 1: general Russian population. And that also is not a fruitful

1263
01:10:53,680 --> 01:10:57,360
Speaker 1: or productive or moral direction to go in. Yeah, that's right,

1264
01:10:57,880 --> 01:11:00,600
Speaker 1: all right, guys. It's crazy that this is this like

1265
01:11:00,640 --> 01:11:03,679
Speaker 1: barely made it into the show today considering what massive,

1266
01:11:04,000 --> 01:11:07,160
Speaker 1: huge news this is. But we now know who Biden's

1267
01:11:07,160 --> 01:11:11,719
Speaker 1: Scotus pick is. It is US Court of Appeals judge

1268
01:11:11,960 --> 01:11:16,080
Speaker 1: for the District of Columbia Circuit Katanji Brown Jackson. And

1269
01:11:16,360 --> 01:11:19,440
Speaker 1: this was someone who sort of was seen as the

1270
01:11:19,520 --> 01:11:23,439
Speaker 1: front runner all the way along. But you'll recall there

1271
01:11:23,560 --> 01:11:27,719
Speaker 1: was a big push from Jim Clyburn specifically, but also

1272
01:11:27,800 --> 01:11:32,599
Speaker 1: Lindsay Graham to get Michelle Childs instead. We detailed here

1273
01:11:32,680 --> 01:11:35,280
Speaker 1: for you what a terrible choice she would have been.

1274
01:11:35,439 --> 01:11:39,000
Speaker 1: She was a management side labor attorney. That means she

1275
01:11:39,040 --> 01:11:43,000
Speaker 1: fought against workers on any number of fronts. Her firm

1276
01:11:43,200 --> 01:11:47,080
Speaker 1: was sort of classically classic union busting firm. She also,

1277
01:11:47,640 --> 01:11:51,040
Speaker 1: right before she was nominated by Obama to I think

1278
01:11:51,080 --> 01:11:55,360
Speaker 1: the district court, she sentenced a man for a trivial

1279
01:11:55,520 --> 01:11:59,080
Speaker 1: amount of weed sales to twelve years in prison as

1280
01:11:59,120 --> 01:12:01,320
Speaker 1: the sort of like lock up mentality to try to

1281
01:12:01,320 --> 01:12:03,519
Speaker 1: further her own career. So they did not go with her.

1282
01:12:03,600 --> 01:12:05,040
Speaker 1: So that was good news. Let's go ahead and put

1283
01:12:05,080 --> 01:12:07,800
Speaker 1: the Washington Post tear sheet about this nomination up on

1284
01:12:07,840 --> 01:12:10,960
Speaker 1: the screen inside Biden's pick of Katanji Brown Jackson for

1285
01:12:11,240 --> 01:12:14,000
Speaker 1: the Supreme Court. There are a few things that are

1286
01:12:14,040 --> 01:12:16,760
Speaker 1: interesting here. I will confess I have not done a

1287
01:12:16,880 --> 01:12:19,960
Speaker 1: thorough review of her record, but there are some indications

1288
01:12:20,000 --> 01:12:22,880
Speaker 1: that are pretty good, especially on issues of labor, which

1289
01:12:22,880 --> 01:12:25,760
Speaker 1: obviously we pay special attention to too. In terms of

1290
01:12:25,760 --> 01:12:28,200
Speaker 1: her record, one thing that people point to is she

1291
01:12:28,600 --> 01:12:32,640
Speaker 1: was a public defender. She also will be close to

1292
01:12:32,800 --> 01:12:34,920
Speaker 1: I think she'll be the second youngest member of the

1293
01:12:34,920 --> 01:12:37,120
Speaker 1: court if she is confirmed. She's fifty one years old.

1294
01:12:37,200 --> 01:12:39,840
Speaker 1: Obviously that matters in terms of she'll be there for

1295
01:12:39,880 --> 01:12:41,800
Speaker 1: a long time and have a chance to shape the court.

1296
01:12:42,720 --> 01:12:45,720
Speaker 1: One of the things that I liked that they detailed

1297
01:12:45,840 --> 01:12:49,560
Speaker 1: in that piece is that she was in an influential

1298
01:12:50,320 --> 01:12:54,280
Speaker 1: position on the DC Court of Appeals during Trump's administration,

1299
01:12:54,880 --> 01:12:57,400
Speaker 1: and there were times whence she ruled against Trump, and

1300
01:12:57,439 --> 01:12:59,800
Speaker 1: there were times since she ruled for Trump which she

1301
01:12:59,840 --> 01:13:02,840
Speaker 1: seemed to show a fairness of mind. So she ruled

1302
01:13:02,840 --> 01:13:06,000
Speaker 1: against him on compelling White House counsel Don McGan to testify,

1303
01:13:06,280 --> 01:13:08,760
Speaker 1: but she ruled with Trump on a dispute over the

1304
01:13:08,760 --> 01:13:11,720
Speaker 1: border wall. Actually she also, and this is on the

1305
01:13:11,840 --> 01:13:15,519
Speaker 1: labor front, she ruled against Trump on an issue regarding

1306
01:13:15,760 --> 01:13:19,320
Speaker 1: federal employee unions who challenged three of the presents executive

1307
01:13:19,400 --> 01:13:22,599
Speaker 1: orders on the collective bargaining rights of federal workers. So

1308
01:13:22,640 --> 01:13:26,479
Speaker 1: she sided with the workers and the unions on that issue.

1309
01:13:26,560 --> 01:13:29,320
Speaker 1: That seems to be a good sign in terms of

1310
01:13:29,360 --> 01:13:33,280
Speaker 1: her ability to get confirmed. This is also probably another

1311
01:13:33,360 --> 01:13:37,320
Speaker 1: reason why she was selected. She was confirmed to that

1312
01:13:37,479 --> 01:13:40,880
Speaker 1: appellate judgeship less than a year ago, and when she

1313
01:13:41,040 --> 01:13:45,959
Speaker 1: was confirmed, she did have support from some senator Republican senators,

1314
01:13:46,120 --> 01:13:51,240
Speaker 1: three in particular Lindsey Graham, Lisa Murkowski, and Susan Collins.

1315
01:13:51,320 --> 01:13:53,719
Speaker 1: So the fact that they just voted for her less

1316
01:13:53,720 --> 01:13:56,639
Speaker 1: than a year ago makes it more difficult for them

1317
01:13:56,680 --> 01:13:59,839
Speaker 1: to make the case now that Suddenly she's terrible, Suddenly

1318
01:13:59,840 --> 01:14:03,519
Speaker 1: she's out of balance. Yeah, now that's no guarantee. Susan

1319
01:14:03,640 --> 01:14:06,920
Speaker 1: Collins so far has issue just like a vegue statement.

1320
01:14:07,000 --> 01:14:10,439
Speaker 1: She said she's an experienced federal judge with impressive academic

1321
01:14:10,439 --> 01:14:13,160
Speaker 1: and legal credentials. I will conduct a thorough vetting of

1322
01:14:13,240 --> 01:14:16,000
Speaker 1: Judge Jackson's nomination and look forward to her public hearing

1323
01:14:16,200 --> 01:14:18,920
Speaker 1: before the Senate Judiciary Committee and to meeting with her

1324
01:14:19,000 --> 01:14:20,920
Speaker 1: in my office. And the last thing I'll say about

1325
01:14:20,920 --> 01:14:25,360
Speaker 1: her record is that, you know, to me is encouraging.

1326
01:14:25,800 --> 01:14:29,720
Speaker 1: Is she represented one of the detainees in Guantanamo Bay

1327
01:14:29,920 --> 01:14:33,200
Speaker 1: and was also yeah, it was also. Now I like that.

1328
01:14:33,240 --> 01:14:35,160
Speaker 1: I'm sure there will be Republicans who say, you know,

1329
01:14:35,200 --> 01:14:38,720
Speaker 1: she's defending terrorists, et cetera. But I know, to me,

1330
01:14:38,800 --> 01:14:41,439
Speaker 1: there's no huge red flags here in terms of her nomination.

1331
01:14:41,600 --> 01:14:43,200
Speaker 1: I actually don't think so. In this day and age,

1332
01:14:43,240 --> 01:14:45,320
Speaker 1: you feel like that culture war is long gone at

1333
01:14:45,320 --> 01:14:49,479
Speaker 1: this point, civil liberties is now. Yeah, maybe amongst a

1334
01:14:49,479 --> 01:14:51,800
Speaker 1: few people. I think the key point is, Look, she's

1335
01:14:51,800 --> 01:14:54,520
Speaker 1: already gotten fifty three votes in the Senate. That's incredibly

1336
01:14:54,560 --> 01:14:56,800
Speaker 1: important because it's going to be hard to justify why

1337
01:14:56,840 --> 01:14:59,439
Speaker 1: you voted against someone here, and I've vote for someone there.

1338
01:15:00,160 --> 01:15:04,320
Speaker 1: Murkowski and Collins I have, you know, both generally not

1339
01:15:04,320 --> 01:15:06,360
Speaker 1: not succumbed to more of the culture war whenever it

1340
01:15:06,400 --> 01:15:09,559
Speaker 1: comes to the Supreme Court view absent Kavanaugh, of course,

1341
01:15:09,840 --> 01:15:13,840
Speaker 1: And so I think that that's incredibly significant. By and large,

1342
01:15:14,400 --> 01:15:16,880
Speaker 1: it's significant because she's a new she's probably going to

1343
01:15:16,880 --> 01:15:19,200
Speaker 1: be in the next Supreme Court justice. On the other hand,

1344
01:15:19,240 --> 01:15:21,719
Speaker 1: she's filling a liberal seat. It doesn't change the balance

1345
01:15:21,720 --> 01:15:26,080
Speaker 1: of the court. It won't fix jurisprudence and our broader

1346
01:15:26,120 --> 01:15:30,080
Speaker 1: problems with the court writ large. So it's important we

1347
01:15:30,160 --> 01:15:32,160
Speaker 1: did feel the need to bring it to you. Yeah, Yeah,

1348
01:15:32,240 --> 01:15:34,240
Speaker 1: not much else to say, to be honest. Yeah, And

1349
01:15:34,320 --> 01:15:37,759
Speaker 1: it's important that it's Katanji bron Jackson and not Michelle

1350
01:15:37,800 --> 01:15:42,839
Speaker 1: Childs there. I think it's apparently Biden called Cliburne before

1351
01:15:42,880 --> 01:15:45,519
Speaker 1: he made the pick public and told him basically, you're

1352
01:15:45,520 --> 01:15:48,639
Speaker 1: going to be disappointed. But you know, I think that's

1353
01:15:48,720 --> 01:15:50,920
Speaker 1: that's a small victory. And well, it may not matter

1354
01:15:51,000 --> 01:15:53,160
Speaker 1: right now in terms of the balance of power on

1355
01:15:53,200 --> 01:15:56,040
Speaker 1: the court. Down the road, you know, it could make

1356
01:15:56,080 --> 01:15:58,920
Speaker 1: a difference who you have there, especially since she is

1357
01:15:59,240 --> 01:16:04,200
Speaker 1: so young, so I wanted to bring you that crystal.

1358
01:16:04,200 --> 01:16:05,840
Speaker 1: What are you taking a look at? Well, guys, there's

1359
01:16:05,840 --> 01:16:08,720
Speaker 1: a couple of eclips going viral from news coverage of

1360
01:16:08,760 --> 01:16:11,479
Speaker 1: the war in Ukraine. And the reason so many people

1361
01:16:11,479 --> 01:16:13,439
Speaker 1: I think are watching and reacting to them is because

1362
01:16:13,479 --> 01:16:15,479
Speaker 1: they really seem to give up the game of something

1363
01:16:15,479 --> 01:16:19,920
Speaker 1: really central to the media's coverage of Ukraine, namely, why

1364
01:16:19,960 --> 01:16:23,200
Speaker 1: are they so deeply concerned for the victims of this

1365
01:16:23,240 --> 01:16:26,759
Speaker 1: particular crisis in contrast to the indifference or outright contempt

1366
01:16:26,760 --> 01:16:30,440
Speaker 1: displayed for the victims of any myriad of other crises

1367
01:16:30,560 --> 01:16:33,600
Speaker 1: around the world. Let's take a look now, with the

1368
01:16:33,680 --> 01:16:38,760
Speaker 1: Russians marching in, It's changed the calculus entirely. Tens of

1369
01:16:38,760 --> 01:16:41,240
Speaker 1: thousands of people have tried to flee the city. There

1370
01:16:41,280 --> 01:16:44,880
Speaker 1: will be many more people are hiding out in bomb shelters.

1371
01:16:45,120 --> 01:16:49,600
Speaker 1: But this isn't a place, with all due respect, you know,

1372
01:16:49,760 --> 01:16:54,040
Speaker 1: like it Rock or Afghanistan that has seen conflict raging

1373
01:16:54,160 --> 01:16:58,680
Speaker 1: for decades. You know, this is a relatively civilized, relatively

1374
01:16:58,720 --> 01:17:01,479
Speaker 1: European I have to choose those words carefully too, a

1375
01:17:01,680 --> 01:17:04,040
Speaker 1: city where you wouldn't expect that or hope that it's

1376
01:17:04,080 --> 01:17:06,760
Speaker 1: going to happen. So it's partly human nature, but they

1377
01:17:06,760 --> 01:17:08,920
Speaker 1: are not in denial. I mean, I'm sorry. It's very

1378
01:17:08,960 --> 01:17:12,759
Speaker 1: emotional for me because I see European people with blue

1379
01:17:12,760 --> 01:17:15,880
Speaker 1: eyes and blonde hair being helled, children being killed every

1380
01:17:15,960 --> 01:17:20,559
Speaker 1: day with Putin's missiles and his helicopters and his rockets,

1381
01:17:20,560 --> 01:17:23,679
Speaker 1: and so of course I understand and respect the emotion.

1382
01:17:23,960 --> 01:17:26,599
Speaker 1: What you are outlining. There is this tension between longer

1383
01:17:26,680 --> 01:17:29,200
Speaker 1: term efforts to apply pressure of Ladimir Putins, such as

1384
01:17:29,280 --> 01:17:34,120
Speaker 1: financial sanctions, and the very immediate military threat which you're experiencing.

1385
01:17:35,160 --> 01:17:38,040
Speaker 1: Now the unthinkable has happened to them. And this is

1386
01:17:38,080 --> 01:17:45,080
Speaker 1: not a developing third world nation. This is Europe. This

1387
01:17:45,240 --> 01:17:49,160
Speaker 1: is Europe, civilized, blonde haired, blue eyes. In case you

1388
01:17:49,160 --> 01:17:51,160
Speaker 1: didn't get it, Knp in the Telegraph wants to make

1389
01:17:51,200 --> 01:17:54,040
Speaker 1: it even more clear for you, writing quote they seem

1390
01:17:54,120 --> 01:17:56,439
Speaker 1: so like us. That is what it makes it so shocking.

1391
01:17:56,520 --> 01:17:59,600
Speaker 1: Ukraine is a European country. It's people watch Netflix and

1392
01:17:59,640 --> 01:18:03,840
Speaker 1: have in accounts, vote in free elections, and have uncensored newspapers.

1393
01:18:04,160 --> 01:18:07,880
Speaker 1: War is no longer something visited upon impoverished and remote populations.

1394
01:18:07,920 --> 01:18:11,120
Speaker 1: It can happen to anyone. I'll just seemingly a bunch

1395
01:18:11,120 --> 01:18:13,000
Speaker 1: of different ways of trying to say, oh my god,

1396
01:18:13,040 --> 01:18:15,840
Speaker 1: they're killing white people. Now, these reporters and analysts clearly

1397
01:18:15,880 --> 01:18:18,920
Speaker 1: expect that the white American and European majorities will care

1398
01:18:18,960 --> 01:18:22,120
Speaker 1: more about the humanity of these particular victims because we

1399
01:18:22,160 --> 01:18:25,280
Speaker 1: share similar levels of melanin, and that is certainly part

1400
01:18:25,360 --> 01:18:27,439
Speaker 1: of what's going on here. After all, you d see

1401
01:18:27,520 --> 01:18:30,160
Speaker 1: some countries right now opening their arms to the white

1402
01:18:30,240 --> 01:18:33,200
Speaker 1: refugees of the Ukraine War while closing their doors to

1403
01:18:33,200 --> 01:18:35,920
Speaker 1: those from Africa and the Middle East. It's easier to

1404
01:18:35,960 --> 01:18:38,240
Speaker 1: otherize people who don't look like you, or have different

1405
01:18:38,280 --> 01:18:42,960
Speaker 1: cultural practices or traditions or religions. But melanin' solidarity is

1406
01:18:42,960 --> 01:18:45,960
Speaker 1: not actually the real story here, playing to a shared

1407
01:18:46,040 --> 01:18:49,000
Speaker 1: racial and cultural identity. It's really just a tool. It's

1408
01:18:49,040 --> 01:18:51,000
Speaker 1: a means to an end that the news media is

1409
01:18:51,080 --> 01:18:53,719
Speaker 1: using to persuade Americans that they should care more about

1410
01:18:53,760 --> 01:18:56,720
Speaker 1: the people in this conflict than in any number of

1411
01:18:56,720 --> 01:18:59,880
Speaker 1: other conflicts that they are not covering whatsoever. Is a

1412
01:19:00,160 --> 01:19:03,000
Speaker 1: classic case of the phenomenon Noam Chomsky and Edward Hermann

1413
01:19:03,000 --> 01:19:06,800
Speaker 1: describe in Manufacturing Consent how the media picks worthy and

1414
01:19:07,000 --> 01:19:11,479
Speaker 1: unworthy victims, choosing which stories protest wars famines are worthy

1415
01:19:11,479 --> 01:19:14,360
Speaker 1: of coverage and worthy of displaying the humanity of the

1416
01:19:14,400 --> 01:19:18,040
Speaker 1: people impacted, and which should it either be ignored completely

1417
01:19:18,280 --> 01:19:21,800
Speaker 1: or actively demonized. And the ciding factor here is not

1418
01:19:21,840 --> 01:19:24,760
Speaker 1: actually race or culture, or which continent the events happen

1419
01:19:24,800 --> 01:19:28,000
Speaker 1: to be unfolding on. The deciding factor is which narratives

1420
01:19:28,040 --> 01:19:31,559
Speaker 1: are most convenient for the US government. Just ask yourself

1421
01:19:31,560 --> 01:19:34,040
Speaker 1: this question. Why was it that for decades of the

1422
01:19:34,040 --> 01:19:37,120
Speaker 1: Afghan War, the Afghan civilians killed by the US state

1423
01:19:37,160 --> 01:19:41,160
Speaker 1: were considered unworthy victims. Then, for a brief period during

1424
01:19:41,160 --> 01:19:45,120
Speaker 1: our withdrawal from Afghanistan, suddenly Afghan civilians were worthy victims,

1425
01:19:45,320 --> 01:19:47,320
Speaker 1: And then the news media cared deeply about the fate

1426
01:19:47,320 --> 01:19:50,559
Speaker 1: of the women and girls who would live under Taliban rule. Then,

1427
01:19:51,240 --> 01:19:54,120
Speaker 1: just as suddenly, now that there is a mass famine

1428
01:19:54,160 --> 01:19:57,000
Speaker 1: caused by our own cruel theft of the Afghan government funds,

1429
01:19:57,560 --> 01:20:01,360
Speaker 1: Afghan civilians are once again unworthy of victims. The ethnicity,

1430
01:20:01,400 --> 01:20:03,880
Speaker 1: cultural practices, and level of development of the country did

1431
01:20:03,880 --> 01:20:07,320
Speaker 1: not change. What changed was which narrative was convenient for

1432
01:20:07,479 --> 01:20:10,400
Speaker 1: our state. In fact, within the very same country at

1433
01:20:10,439 --> 01:20:12,680
Speaker 1: the very same time. Some victims were deemed worthy and

1434
01:20:12,720 --> 01:20:15,200
Speaker 1: covered as such but the media by the media, while

1435
01:20:15,240 --> 01:20:18,839
Speaker 1: others were not so. Victims of American drone strikes unworthy,

1436
01:20:19,000 --> 01:20:22,160
Speaker 1: the Afghan Girls Robotics team worthy, all because of what

1437
01:20:22,200 --> 01:20:25,280
Speaker 1: the US state wanted highlighted and what they wanted suppressed.

1438
01:20:25,760 --> 01:20:28,280
Speaker 1: It's disgraceful how the corporate news media is happy to

1439
01:20:28,320 --> 01:20:32,720
Speaker 1: manipulate American's most noble humanitarian impulses and channel them in

1440
01:20:32,760 --> 01:20:35,760
Speaker 1: directions that are convenient for US power. And you can

1441
01:20:35,760 --> 01:20:38,040
Speaker 1: see this dynamic playing out right now all over the world.

1442
01:20:38,040 --> 01:20:40,960
Speaker 1: In our own country, within liberal media, COVID victims have

1443
01:20:41,000 --> 01:20:44,800
Speaker 1: frequently been given worthy treatment, while victims of drug overdoses

1444
01:20:44,840 --> 01:20:48,599
Speaker 1: have been given unworthy treatment. Looking around the world, Cuban

1445
01:20:48,640 --> 01:20:52,080
Speaker 1: protesters in Hong Kong protesters were given worthy treatments since

1446
01:20:52,080 --> 01:20:55,040
Speaker 1: they were opposing governments that our relits don't like. Chilean

1447
01:20:55,160 --> 01:20:58,920
Speaker 1: protesters and Palestinian protesters were given the unworthy treatment because

1448
01:20:58,920 --> 01:21:01,759
Speaker 1: the US state did not care for their causes. Perhaps

1449
01:21:01,800 --> 01:21:04,840
Speaker 1: the most glaring discrepancy right now is between the way

1450
01:21:04,880 --> 01:21:07,080
Speaker 1: that Ukrainian war is being covered and the way that

1451
01:21:07,120 --> 01:21:10,599
Speaker 1: the Saudi war in Yemen is being ignored. In Yemen,

1452
01:21:10,840 --> 01:21:13,320
Speaker 1: the US has been backing our ally Saudi Arabia and

1453
01:21:13,360 --> 01:21:16,440
Speaker 1: a proxy war that has left the Yumeni population starving

1454
01:21:16,560 --> 01:21:20,479
Speaker 1: and completely desperate. In fact, Yemen is currently considered to

1455
01:21:20,479 --> 01:21:24,839
Speaker 1: be the world's worst humanitarian crisis, with millions of children

1456
01:21:24,880 --> 01:21:27,720
Speaker 1: in danger of starving to death. But since the US

1457
01:21:27,800 --> 01:21:30,839
Speaker 1: is complicit in causing this particular war and its attendant

1458
01:21:30,840 --> 01:21:33,240
Speaker 1: mass suffering, you don't hear a whole lot about it.

1459
01:21:33,520 --> 01:21:35,960
Speaker 1: On the contrary, for all the flaws of the media,

1460
01:21:36,040 --> 01:21:38,120
Speaker 1: is covered of the Ukraine conflict, and there are many

1461
01:21:38,560 --> 01:21:40,200
Speaker 1: they have gone out of their way to treat the

1462
01:21:40,240 --> 01:21:43,720
Speaker 1: people suffering there with humanity. I've watched beautiful videos and

1463
01:21:43,760 --> 01:21:46,599
Speaker 1: read heart wrenching stories about refugees grabbing what they can

1464
01:21:46,680 --> 01:21:49,799
Speaker 1: and fleeing by the hundreds of thousands, About families hunkered

1465
01:21:49,800 --> 01:21:52,600
Speaker 1: down in parking garages, terrified for their lives and the

1466
01:21:52,600 --> 01:21:55,479
Speaker 1: lives of their children. About young men suddenly thrust in

1467
01:21:55,520 --> 01:21:57,960
Speaker 1: the middle of a war with a hastily issued government

1468
01:21:58,000 --> 01:22:02,080
Speaker 1: weapon and zero training. Played a tribalism, These blondhaired people

1469
01:22:02,120 --> 01:22:04,400
Speaker 1: are just like you. They watch Netflix. That is a

1470
01:22:04,439 --> 01:22:08,120
Speaker 1: technique used in the manipulation, an effective manipulation because yes,

1471
01:22:08,200 --> 01:22:10,960
Speaker 1: of very real problems of racism and tribalism, but it's

1472
01:22:11,000 --> 01:22:14,559
Speaker 1: not actually the root cause of that manipulation. The reason

1473
01:22:14,640 --> 01:22:17,360
Speaker 1: they want you to see these victims as the fully

1474
01:22:17,439 --> 01:22:20,839
Speaker 1: worthy human beings that they are is because they're opposing

1475
01:22:20,840 --> 01:22:24,120
Speaker 1: one of our most significant global adversaries. Now, some make

1476
01:22:24,120 --> 01:22:26,719
Speaker 1: the opposite mistake of thinking that since the Ukrainian suffering

1477
01:22:26,760 --> 01:22:28,559
Speaker 1: is convenient for the US state, that we should not

1478
01:22:28,600 --> 01:22:31,040
Speaker 1: care about it whatsoever. So let me be totally clear,

1479
01:22:31,360 --> 01:22:33,760
Speaker 1: what's being done to Ukraine by Russia is horrible, and

1480
01:22:33,800 --> 01:22:37,040
Speaker 1: it is heartbreaking, and it deserves to be covered with humanity.

1481
01:22:37,360 --> 01:22:39,200
Speaker 1: I don't want the coverage of Ukraine to have less

1482
01:22:39,240 --> 01:22:41,799
Speaker 1: care and empathy. I want all wars to be given

1483
01:22:42,000 --> 01:22:44,280
Speaker 1: this same treatment. This is also not a call to

1484
01:22:44,320 --> 01:22:46,519
Speaker 1: stop covering the conflict. I believe the stakes for the

1485
01:22:46,520 --> 01:22:48,400
Speaker 1: world of what happens in Ukraine, as we've been laying

1486
01:22:48,400 --> 01:22:52,160
Speaker 1: out here today, are very very high. We are witnessing

1487
01:22:52,200 --> 01:22:55,080
Speaker 1: a global great power realignment in real time, which will

1488
01:22:55,120 --> 01:22:57,719
Speaker 1: shape our world for decades to come. We are also

1489
01:22:57,800 --> 01:23:00,479
Speaker 1: watching in real time as the worst voices in American

1490
01:23:00,479 --> 01:23:03,000
Speaker 1: politics try to draw us into a war with a

1491
01:23:03,120 --> 01:23:08,480
Speaker 1: nuclear power. Those are serious, consequential topics with global implications,

1492
01:23:08,479 --> 01:23:12,120
Speaker 1: and they deserve thorough consideration. But when the media tries

1493
01:23:12,160 --> 01:23:15,120
Speaker 1: to convince you of the righteousness of a particular cause

1494
01:23:15,160 --> 01:23:19,240
Speaker 1: because of the humanitarian considerations, just remember all of the

1495
01:23:19,360 --> 01:23:23,679
Speaker 1: millions of humanitarian considerations that they care absolutely nothing about,

1496
01:23:24,200 --> 01:23:27,240
Speaker 1: or as in Palestinians, that they go out of their

1497
01:23:27,280 --> 01:23:30,040
Speaker 1: way to be on the wrong side of. This is

1498
01:23:30,080 --> 01:23:33,120
Speaker 1: my plea to you to always remember that while we

1499
01:23:33,160 --> 01:23:36,519
Speaker 1: should care deeply about the humanity of the Ukrainians who

1500
01:23:36,560 --> 01:23:39,639
Speaker 1: are suffering, their lives are not any more worthy than

1501
01:23:39,640 --> 01:23:43,080
Speaker 1: those of Jumeni's Afghans, Syrians and all the peoples of

1502
01:23:43,120 --> 01:23:47,000
Speaker 1: the world in war Towork countries and far beyond and sagur.

1503
01:23:47,360 --> 01:23:49,920
Speaker 1: You know, I think it's important here to reflect on

1504
01:23:50,600 --> 01:23:53,479
Speaker 1: and if you want to hear my reaction to Crystal's monologue,

1505
01:23:53,479 --> 01:23:59,479
Speaker 1: become a premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot Com. All right, saga,

1506
01:23:59,520 --> 01:24:01,439
Speaker 1: what are you looking at? Well? I've been thinking a

1507
01:24:01,520 --> 01:24:03,840
Speaker 1: lot of over the last several days. Why was I

1508
01:24:03,960 --> 01:24:06,800
Speaker 1: so wrong about Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Of course, I

1509
01:24:06,840 --> 01:24:09,160
Speaker 1: had no faith in the US intelligence community given their

1510
01:24:09,200 --> 01:24:11,720
Speaker 1: long track record of being flat wrong. But I think

1511
01:24:11,760 --> 01:24:14,639
Speaker 1: fundamentally it was this. I just simply had too much

1512
01:24:14,680 --> 01:24:17,960
Speaker 1: respect for Vladimir Putin. I thought he was paranoid, yes,

1513
01:24:18,000 --> 01:24:22,479
Speaker 1: but ultimately a mostly rational and logical actor driven by

1514
01:24:22,640 --> 01:24:25,559
Speaker 1: historical Russian concerns in the region. Yes, I saw those

1515
01:24:25,560 --> 01:24:28,360
Speaker 1: one hundred and eighty thousand troops around Ukraine, and I thought,

1516
01:24:28,479 --> 01:24:31,879
Speaker 1: once again, logically, if you want to extract maximum promises

1517
01:24:31,880 --> 01:24:35,120
Speaker 1: from the West regarding Ukrainian membership status in NATO, and

1518
01:24:35,200 --> 01:24:37,720
Speaker 1: a credible threat is then important. But I made the

1519
01:24:37,720 --> 01:24:39,799
Speaker 1: mistake that a lot of people have made throughout history.

1520
01:24:40,120 --> 01:24:44,240
Speaker 1: Absolute power corrupts absolutely, and Putin's invasion of Ukraine is

1521
01:24:44,320 --> 01:24:48,080
Speaker 1: anything but logical. Let me explain. Putin's core beef with

1522
01:24:48,120 --> 01:24:50,760
Speaker 1: the West was that we expanded NATO outward from its

1523
01:24:50,800 --> 01:24:53,479
Speaker 1: original boundaries at the end of the Cold War. I

1524
01:24:53,479 --> 01:24:56,160
Speaker 1: think that's really fair. He drew red lines then in

1525
01:24:56,280 --> 01:24:58,639
Speaker 1: Ukraine and in Georgia, and he said they can never

1526
01:24:58,680 --> 01:25:02,080
Speaker 1: get NATO membership and has had credible military deterrent after

1527
01:25:02,120 --> 01:25:06,040
Speaker 1: his campaigns in Chechnya, ab Kazia and Georgia. Now after

1528
01:25:06,120 --> 01:25:09,760
Speaker 1: he ignited the immediate crisis with the troop deployments. The

1529
01:25:09,800 --> 01:25:13,559
Speaker 1: President of Ukraine himself said, well, maybe NATO is just

1530
01:25:13,600 --> 01:25:16,559
Speaker 1: a dream. And here in Washington the whispers were loud

1531
01:25:16,880 --> 01:25:20,559
Speaker 1: and you heard the private acknowledgement that yes, Ukraine will

1532
01:25:20,560 --> 01:25:22,680
Speaker 1: never be a part of NATO. Putin made it clear

1533
01:25:22,760 --> 01:25:24,800
Speaker 1: it was a red line. If he had held off,

1534
01:25:24,880 --> 01:25:27,880
Speaker 1: I'm actually very certain he could have extracted a promise

1535
01:25:27,920 --> 01:25:32,000
Speaker 1: from Zelenski and the Ukrainian government themselves that NATO membership

1536
01:25:32,200 --> 01:25:35,200
Speaker 1: was off the table one hundred percent. He could literally

1537
01:25:35,280 --> 01:25:38,320
Speaker 1: have gotten everything that he said he wanted. And here

1538
01:25:38,360 --> 01:25:41,280
Speaker 1: in the US, people like myself would have been supportive

1539
01:25:41,320 --> 01:25:44,680
Speaker 1: of giving him that guarantee. But then last week he

1540
01:25:44,760 --> 01:25:48,200
Speaker 1: decided instead to not just move into eastern Ukraine. Putin

1541
01:25:48,280 --> 01:25:51,960
Speaker 1: greenlit a full shock and awe campaign against the entire

1542
01:25:52,120 --> 01:25:56,040
Speaker 1: nation from east and west by land, air and sea.

1543
01:25:56,400 --> 01:25:59,040
Speaker 1: And by doing that, Putin has committed one of the

1544
01:25:59,080 --> 01:26:02,960
Speaker 1: most colossal fire dolly's in modern memory by a Russian leader. Firstly,

1545
01:26:03,160 --> 01:26:07,080
Speaker 1: this invasion was fulfilled the wildest dreams of the neocons

1546
01:26:07,160 --> 01:26:10,320
Speaker 1: and the warhawks in DC. US views of Russia are

1547
01:26:10,400 --> 01:26:14,719
Speaker 1: now at eighty five percent unfavorable, spiking to the highest

1548
01:26:14,800 --> 01:26:18,080
Speaker 1: level today. Then, since the end of the Cold War,

1549
01:26:18,439 --> 01:26:21,200
Speaker 1: public opinion is now on the side of the most

1550
01:26:21,520 --> 01:26:25,440
Speaker 1: maximal actions against Russia short of war. He has empowered

1551
01:26:25,600 --> 01:26:29,240
Speaker 1: his greatest enemies in the Capitol next Putin has awoken

1552
01:26:29,280 --> 01:26:33,080
Speaker 1: a sleeping giant in Europe. Donald Trump famously castigated NATO

1553
01:26:33,160 --> 01:26:35,920
Speaker 1: allies for not paying their fair share of two percent

1554
01:26:36,000 --> 01:26:40,080
Speaker 1: GDP defense spending targets. Most Western NATO countries like France

1555
01:26:40,080 --> 01:26:43,200
Speaker 1: and Germany have been sitting on their hands, funding their

1556
01:26:43,240 --> 01:26:46,719
Speaker 1: expensive welfare states, mooching off of the US nuclear umbrella

1557
01:26:46,880 --> 01:26:50,599
Speaker 1: for almost thirty years. And now what has Putin done well?

1558
01:26:50,880 --> 01:26:54,800
Speaker 1: He has greenlit a massive expansion of military budgets on

1559
01:26:54,880 --> 01:26:58,479
Speaker 1: the European continent. Europe is one fifth of world GDP.

1560
01:26:59,280 --> 01:27:02,400
Speaker 1: They may be layzy and mostly useless in many normal times,

1561
01:27:02,520 --> 01:27:04,519
Speaker 1: but when you see a massive invasion just a few

1562
01:27:04,600 --> 01:27:07,599
Speaker 1: hundred miles away, even the laziest people wake up. And

1563
01:27:07,640 --> 01:27:10,400
Speaker 1: that is what has happened. Germany, the country which has

1564
01:27:10,439 --> 01:27:13,760
Speaker 1: been the most reluctant to spend on defense and has

1565
01:27:13,840 --> 01:27:17,400
Speaker 1: even relied on Russian gas despite warnings from the West

1566
01:27:17,439 --> 01:27:21,040
Speaker 1: not to do so, announced yesterday they will increase GDP

1567
01:27:21,200 --> 01:27:24,400
Speaker 1: defense spending on defense over two percent for the first

1568
01:27:24,400 --> 01:27:27,719
Speaker 1: time in modern history. More so, they will build new

1569
01:27:28,160 --> 01:27:32,599
Speaker 1: LNG terminals in Germany to reduce reliance on Russian gas

1570
01:27:32,840 --> 01:27:35,559
Speaker 1: and purchase it instead from people like the United States.

1571
01:27:35,920 --> 01:27:39,880
Speaker 1: This is a titanic shift in German national security and

1572
01:27:39,960 --> 01:27:43,160
Speaker 1: energy policy that would have been unthinkable two weeks ago.

1573
01:27:43,560 --> 01:27:46,759
Speaker 1: Putin has now accelerated higher defense spending on the continent,

1574
01:27:47,040 --> 01:27:50,240
Speaker 1: even amongst the biggest doves in Europe, and he has

1575
01:27:50,280 --> 01:27:53,599
Speaker 1: pushed his largest European customer into the hands of the West.

1576
01:27:54,160 --> 01:27:57,000
Speaker 1: Just as reliant as Germany is on Russian gas, it

1577
01:27:57,080 --> 01:27:59,320
Speaker 1: is also true that the Russians are as reliant on

1578
01:27:59,439 --> 01:28:02,840
Speaker 1: German can and then, finally, and the worst development for

1579
01:28:02,840 --> 01:28:06,479
Speaker 1: peace is this, Putin has now insured a permanent US

1580
01:28:06,520 --> 01:28:10,200
Speaker 1: and Western deployment to NATO. President Biden sent an additional

1581
01:28:10,360 --> 01:28:14,400
Speaker 1: seven thousand troops to Germany, replacing several thousand troops who

1582
01:28:14,439 --> 01:28:18,000
Speaker 1: were then sent to the furthest east of the NATO Alliance. Furthermore,

1583
01:28:18,120 --> 01:28:21,479
Speaker 1: Chancellor Schultz, in his speech pledging more defense spending, also

1584
01:28:21,560 --> 01:28:24,840
Speaker 1: indicated Germany will be sending more troops to the eastern

1585
01:28:24,880 --> 01:28:27,960
Speaker 1: flank of NATO. This is all but now insured for

1586
01:28:28,120 --> 01:28:32,240
Speaker 1: literally years to come. Furthermore, the US and the West

1587
01:28:32,240 --> 01:28:36,240
Speaker 1: are providing untold billions of dollars in military aid, not

1588
01:28:36,280 --> 01:28:38,880
Speaker 1: only to Ukraine, to put to the Eastern countries around it.

1589
01:28:39,120 --> 01:28:42,360
Speaker 1: The current estimate in the immediate term is ten billion

1590
01:28:42,640 --> 01:28:45,600
Speaker 1: just this month for the immediate crisis. That does not

1591
01:28:45,680 --> 01:28:49,600
Speaker 1: even mention the absolutely massive military budget which is going

1592
01:28:49,680 --> 01:28:52,720
Speaker 1: to make our current one look tiny in comparison when

1593
01:28:52,720 --> 01:28:55,800
Speaker 1: the next appropriation cycle comes up. So let's all sum

1594
01:28:55,840 --> 01:28:58,559
Speaker 1: this up. Putin, in his goal to fend off NATO

1595
01:28:58,840 --> 01:29:02,840
Speaker 1: and Western reaction, has instead united the Western public against him.

1596
01:29:02,960 --> 01:29:05,920
Speaker 1: He has empowered the foes of Russia in every Western capital,

1597
01:29:06,080 --> 01:29:09,280
Speaker 1: from Washington to Paris to Berlin. He has spurned one

1598
01:29:09,280 --> 01:29:12,479
Speaker 1: of his biggest energy customers, pushed the biggest dove in

1599
01:29:12,560 --> 01:29:15,639
Speaker 1: Europe to spend more on defense. He has insured now

1600
01:29:15,720 --> 01:29:19,120
Speaker 1: big US Western military deployments right up to the edge

1601
01:29:19,120 --> 01:29:22,200
Speaker 1: of the Russian border. And he has strengthened the bipartisan

1602
01:29:22,240 --> 01:29:26,360
Speaker 1: consensus against Russia in ways he probably does not even comprehend.

1603
01:29:26,760 --> 01:29:29,000
Speaker 1: Ad On top of that, he has now invited the

1604
01:29:29,000 --> 01:29:31,680
Speaker 1: most harsh and strict sanctions against Russia that we have

1605
01:29:31,880 --> 01:29:35,759
Speaker 1: ever seen applied in the West. He ensures financial ruin

1606
01:29:35,880 --> 01:29:39,240
Speaker 1: for many of his citizens, travel bands, a massive hit

1607
01:29:39,280 --> 01:29:42,400
Speaker 1: to the quality of life of Russians, an economic depression

1608
01:29:42,520 --> 01:29:44,519
Speaker 1: the likes of which Russia has not seen in decades,

1609
01:29:44,800 --> 01:29:48,680
Speaker 1: geopolitical isolation save for a tentative ally in the Chinese,

1610
01:29:48,720 --> 01:29:51,880
Speaker 1: and I have not even mentioned this invasion ain't going

1611
01:29:51,920 --> 01:29:54,280
Speaker 1: so well so that far, given the high death toll

1612
01:29:54,439 --> 01:29:59,000
Speaker 1: amongst his soldiers, this is a colossal mistake. It's not logical,

1613
01:29:59,200 --> 01:30:01,759
Speaker 1: and I won't lie a fear for the fate of humanity.

1614
01:30:02,080 --> 01:30:05,320
Speaker 1: This was the action of a person who abandoned rationality,

1615
01:30:05,560 --> 01:30:08,000
Speaker 1: and in his hands is one of the largest nuclear

1616
01:30:08,080 --> 01:30:11,160
Speaker 1: arsenals in the history of mankind. There are few off

1617
01:30:11,240 --> 01:30:13,680
Speaker 1: ramps from here, given what Putin has done, and the

1618
01:30:13,720 --> 01:30:16,160
Speaker 1: eyeball to eyeball days of the Cold War are back.

1619
01:30:16,439 --> 01:30:19,120
Speaker 1: While there is blame in Washington, the majority of it

1620
01:30:19,160 --> 01:30:22,160
Speaker 1: today lies with Putin, and I hope to God we

1621
01:30:22,160 --> 01:30:25,559
Speaker 1: can get out of this one without total annihilation. That's

1622
01:30:25,680 --> 01:30:28,240
Speaker 1: the part I keep coming back to. But the more

1623
01:30:28,320 --> 01:30:30,240
Speaker 1: you continue to look at and if you want to

1624
01:30:30,280 --> 01:30:33,880
Speaker 1: hear my reaction to Sagre's monologue, become a premium subscriber

1625
01:30:33,920 --> 01:30:38,880
Speaker 1: Today at Breakingpoints dot com. Derek, it's always great to

1626
01:30:38,920 --> 01:30:41,760
Speaker 1: see you, my friend. Great to see you guys too.

1627
01:30:41,640 --> 01:30:44,759
Speaker 1: So for your podcast Play in English with Derek Thompson,

1628
01:30:44,760 --> 01:30:48,320
Speaker 1: you did two different episodes so far on Ukraine, and

1629
01:30:48,360 --> 01:30:51,040
Speaker 1: we wanted to start with you talked to a bunch

1630
01:30:51,080 --> 01:30:55,679
Speaker 1: of experts about what some of the potentially unpredictable follow

1631
01:30:55,840 --> 01:31:00,200
Speaker 1: on effects of the war in Ukraine could be from

1632
01:31:00,240 --> 01:31:03,160
Speaker 1: a supply chain perspective, from an economic perspective. What were

1633
01:31:03,160 --> 01:31:06,719
Speaker 1: some of the top lines that you found there. Sure,

1634
01:31:07,160 --> 01:31:10,479
Speaker 1: the thesis of that episode on Plan English was that

1635
01:31:10,640 --> 01:31:16,320
Speaker 1: war doesn't just include unintended consequences. War is unintended consequences.

1636
01:31:16,360 --> 01:31:19,479
Speaker 1: I don't think a lot of people assumed when Putin

1637
01:31:19,680 --> 01:31:24,760
Speaker 1: invaded Ukraine that we would see essentially the economic suffocation

1638
01:31:24,960 --> 01:31:28,080
Speaker 1: of the Russian economy. I mean, this is an unprecedented

1639
01:31:28,120 --> 01:31:30,880
Speaker 1: thing that is happening right now and is unfolding by

1640
01:31:30,920 --> 01:31:33,519
Speaker 1: the second. But some of the really interesting ripple effects

1641
01:31:33,520 --> 01:31:36,479
Speaker 1: that I didn't really anticipate until I started reporting out

1642
01:31:36,479 --> 01:31:40,920
Speaker 1: this episode include the food crisis that we could see

1643
01:31:41,080 --> 01:31:45,840
Speaker 1: Ukraine and Russia combine for something like twenty twenty five

1644
01:31:45,840 --> 01:31:50,120
Speaker 1: percent of wheat exports to the world. There are fourteen

1645
01:31:50,200 --> 01:31:53,519
Speaker 1: countries in the world that rely on Ukraine for more

1646
01:31:53,560 --> 01:31:57,080
Speaker 1: than ten percent of their wheat imports. That includes a

1647
01:31:57,080 --> 01:31:59,240
Speaker 1: lot of countries in the Middle East, in Africa, and

1648
01:31:59,280 --> 01:32:06,520
Speaker 1: Southeast Asia. So if you see wheat export disruption because

1649
01:32:06,680 --> 01:32:10,800
Speaker 1: of this war, you could see hunger, you could see

1650
01:32:10,840 --> 01:32:14,599
Speaker 1: potential famines in some countries. I'm worried in the Middle

1651
01:32:14,600 --> 01:32:17,240
Speaker 1: East and Africa and Southeast Asia. What do we know

1652
01:32:17,680 --> 01:32:22,439
Speaker 1: about hunger? It tends to create its own political knockgun effects.

1653
01:32:22,439 --> 01:32:25,360
Speaker 1: It tends to create its own political instability. The Arab Spring,

1654
01:32:25,479 --> 01:32:28,960
Speaker 1: all sorts of revolutions around the world have started because

1655
01:32:29,000 --> 01:32:32,200
Speaker 1: of rising food prices. So the ripple effect there to

1656
01:32:32,200 --> 01:32:35,320
Speaker 1: pay attention to is what if the trade is disrupted

1657
01:32:35,360 --> 01:32:39,240
Speaker 1: from Russia and Ukraine creates economic problems for countries that

1658
01:32:39,400 --> 01:32:43,000
Speaker 1: already have poverty and political instability, and we see flare

1659
01:32:43,080 --> 01:32:46,920
Speaker 1: ups of political revolutions outside of Eastern Europe. Yeah, that's

1660
01:32:46,960 --> 01:32:50,080
Speaker 1: something I'm very worried about. Derek. You also called the

1661
01:32:50,120 --> 01:32:53,599
Speaker 1: financial suffocation of Russia terra incognita. This is something I

1662
01:32:53,800 --> 01:32:56,639
Speaker 1: to Krystal, I've been trying to wrap our heads around.

1663
01:32:56,920 --> 01:32:58,840
Speaker 1: Can you just describe for us what some of the

1664
01:32:58,880 --> 01:33:02,360
Speaker 1: follow on economic effects might be because the Russian economy

1665
01:33:02,439 --> 01:33:05,000
Speaker 1: is not contained to just Russia. It's a you know,

1666
01:33:05,200 --> 01:33:08,280
Speaker 1: modern Western nation that does business with all sorts of people.

1667
01:33:08,960 --> 01:33:10,760
Speaker 1: That's right, Just a key sat right there. I think

1668
01:33:10,800 --> 01:33:13,759
Speaker 1: something like seventy five percent of the world's sunflower oil,

1669
01:33:13,960 --> 01:33:17,599
Speaker 1: some flower received oil, comes from Russia and Ukraine. So

1670
01:33:17,960 --> 01:33:21,840
Speaker 1: there's all sorts of I mean, obviously the natural gas

1671
01:33:21,840 --> 01:33:24,759
Speaker 1: and coal. An enormous amount of the energy that's provided

1672
01:33:24,800 --> 01:33:28,400
Speaker 1: to or that Europe uses comes from Russia. You know

1673
01:33:28,560 --> 01:33:30,160
Speaker 1: the way that I think about this in the big picture.

1674
01:33:30,560 --> 01:33:33,120
Speaker 1: Do you remember when Trump was elected and the comedian

1675
01:33:33,200 --> 01:33:35,880
Speaker 1: John mulaney said, this is like a horse loose in

1676
01:33:35,920 --> 01:33:38,720
Speaker 1: a hospital. We've never seen anything like this before. You

1677
01:33:38,800 --> 01:33:40,760
Speaker 1: can't say, oh, I saw a bird loose in a

1678
01:33:40,800 --> 01:33:43,959
Speaker 1: hospital once. No, that's not a horse loose in the hospital.

1679
01:33:44,240 --> 01:33:46,280
Speaker 1: No one has seen anything like this before, So don't

1680
01:33:46,320 --> 01:33:48,280
Speaker 1: tell me, you know what's going on. I kind of

1681
01:33:48,280 --> 01:33:50,240
Speaker 1: feel like this is this isn't like the horse loose

1682
01:33:50,240 --> 01:33:52,000
Speaker 1: in the hospital. This is like a rhino loose in

1683
01:33:52,000 --> 01:33:54,719
Speaker 1: the nuclear power plant control room. You're not just seeing

1684
01:33:54,760 --> 01:33:57,800
Speaker 1: something that's unprecedented. You're seeing something that's unprecedented, that is

1685
01:33:57,960 --> 01:34:01,960
Speaker 1: proximate to a relatively unhinged leader in Vladimir Putin, who

1686
01:34:02,000 --> 01:34:04,240
Speaker 1: has access, who has access to the world's second largest

1687
01:34:04,280 --> 01:34:07,240
Speaker 1: nuclear arsenal. This is a really, really scary moment. You know.

1688
01:34:07,400 --> 01:34:09,040
Speaker 1: The other way I think about this is that there's

1689
01:34:09,040 --> 01:34:11,439
Speaker 1: sort of two dimensions of this war. On the one hand,

1690
01:34:11,439 --> 01:34:15,360
Speaker 1: there's battlefield number one. That is the ground in Ukraine.

1691
01:34:15,439 --> 01:34:17,920
Speaker 1: It's the land, it's the sea, the air in Ukraine

1692
01:34:18,080 --> 01:34:20,800
Speaker 1: where the literal battle is happening. What we've seen in

1693
01:34:20,800 --> 01:34:22,559
Speaker 1: the last forty eight to seventy two hours is that

1694
01:34:22,880 --> 01:34:25,800
Speaker 1: there's another layer of this war battlefield too, and that's

1695
01:34:25,800 --> 01:34:29,200
Speaker 1: the contracts and the policies that exist in the world

1696
01:34:29,240 --> 01:34:32,120
Speaker 1: of global finance and economics. And what the world has

1697
01:34:32,160 --> 01:34:33,720
Speaker 1: done essentially is said, all right, if you're going to

1698
01:34:33,800 --> 01:34:37,000
Speaker 1: try to siege Kiev, if you're going to try to

1699
01:34:37,080 --> 01:34:41,800
Speaker 1: besiege the country of Ukraine, we will economically besiege the

1700
01:34:41,840 --> 01:34:46,640
Speaker 1: country of Russia. You cannot trade, you cannot fly to Europe,

1701
01:34:46,800 --> 01:34:50,000
Speaker 1: you cannot offload your assets. Your central bank is essentially

1702
01:34:50,080 --> 01:34:52,120
Speaker 1: shut off. You can't take money out of your ATM.

1703
01:34:52,160 --> 01:34:53,680
Speaker 1: That's why you had all these lines and you had

1704
01:34:53,720 --> 01:34:56,559
Speaker 1: all this news about ATMs running out of cash, running

1705
01:34:56,560 --> 01:34:58,880
Speaker 1: out of rubles. The ruble itself has lost me in

1706
01:34:58,880 --> 01:35:00,560
Speaker 1: like thirty to forty percent of the value in the

1707
01:35:00,640 --> 01:35:03,200
Speaker 1: last twenty four hours. I mean, this really is turning

1708
01:35:03,200 --> 01:35:05,680
Speaker 1: out to be something like an unprecedented economic crisis for

1709
01:35:05,720 --> 01:35:09,040
Speaker 1: a country the size of Russia. And while of course

1710
01:35:09,080 --> 01:35:11,360
Speaker 1: this is not my saying we shouldn't do this, like

1711
01:35:11,680 --> 01:35:14,640
Speaker 1: it's important to stand up to an autocrat invading a

1712
01:35:14,680 --> 01:35:17,519
Speaker 1: neighbor to say this is not acceptable, but I think

1713
01:35:17,560 --> 01:35:20,479
Speaker 1: it's worth pointing out that we do not know what

1714
01:35:20,520 --> 01:35:22,519
Speaker 1: the knock on effects are going to be exactly in

1715
01:35:22,560 --> 01:35:24,679
Speaker 1: the next seventy two hours. Because this is a horse

1716
01:35:24,720 --> 01:35:26,720
Speaker 1: loose in the hospital, this is a rhino loose in

1717
01:35:26,720 --> 01:35:29,080
Speaker 1: the nuclear power plant control room. We don't know what

1718
01:35:29,160 --> 01:35:31,320
Speaker 1: comes next. That's right. Well, I'm just looking at a

1719
01:35:31,320 --> 01:35:34,800
Speaker 1: new CNN poll that says eighty three percent of Americans

1720
01:35:34,840 --> 01:35:39,040
Speaker 1: favor increased economic sanctions against Russia in response to the invasion.

1721
01:35:39,960 --> 01:35:43,240
Speaker 1: So there's huge public sentiment in favor of, you know,

1722
01:35:43,560 --> 01:35:47,439
Speaker 1: essentially throwing the economic playbook at Russia. However, one of

1723
01:35:47,479 --> 01:35:50,280
Speaker 1: the things that you tease out is that that strategy

1724
01:35:50,760 --> 01:35:54,280
Speaker 1: not only is it unprecedented under you know, against a

1725
01:35:54,320 --> 01:35:58,960
Speaker 1: major G twenty power, it also has risks. It's not

1726
01:35:59,120 --> 01:36:01,800
Speaker 1: clear that this ultimately is going to be the way

1727
01:36:01,880 --> 01:36:05,439
Speaker 1: to de escalate and resolve this situation with the least

1728
01:36:05,880 --> 01:36:09,800
Speaker 1: human suffering. So talk about what those risks actually look

1729
01:36:09,880 --> 01:36:12,400
Speaker 1: like and entail. Sure. The way I think about it

1730
01:36:12,479 --> 01:36:15,840
Speaker 1: is we have Putin in a headlock, but he has

1731
01:36:15,880 --> 01:36:18,640
Speaker 1: a gun to the head of the human race right like,

1732
01:36:18,880 --> 01:36:23,120
Speaker 1: he has the ability to launch hundreds of nuclear weapons

1733
01:36:23,160 --> 01:36:25,280
Speaker 1: that would essentially end like as we know it. I'm

1734
01:36:25,280 --> 01:36:27,200
Speaker 1: not saying that to be scare monger, and I certainly

1735
01:36:27,240 --> 01:36:28,800
Speaker 1: hope that I shn't do it. I think the odds

1736
01:36:28,840 --> 01:36:31,040
Speaker 1: of it happening are some one percent, But these are right,

1737
01:36:31,040 --> 01:36:33,599
Speaker 1: these are the facts in the ground. I think it's

1738
01:36:33,640 --> 01:36:39,479
Speaker 1: important to not only shown Putin our economic arsenal, to

1739
01:36:39,800 --> 01:36:44,200
Speaker 1: clearly illuminate an off ramp. We need to find a

1740
01:36:44,240 --> 01:36:48,640
Speaker 1: way out of this. I talked to a military historian

1741
01:36:48,680 --> 01:36:52,439
Speaker 1: and political science professor, Paul Post on the second episode

1742
01:36:52,479 --> 01:36:54,599
Speaker 1: that I did for my podcast Plain English. That episode

1743
01:36:54,640 --> 01:36:57,639
Speaker 1: was called how Putin's War May End, and he made

1744
01:36:57,640 --> 01:36:59,840
Speaker 1: an interesting point. He said, there's a term in political

1745
01:36:59,840 --> 01:37:05,760
Speaker 1: science called gambling for resurrection. Gambling for resurrection, that is,

1746
01:37:05,760 --> 01:37:09,200
Speaker 1: when a military leader is so desperate that he or

1747
01:37:09,320 --> 01:37:13,040
Speaker 1: she does something completely crazy because their back is against

1748
01:37:13,080 --> 01:37:16,160
Speaker 1: the wall. I believe Auto van Bismarck in the nineteenth century,

1749
01:37:16,160 --> 01:37:20,280
Speaker 1: the German Prussian leader of the late nineteenth century, called

1750
01:37:20,280 --> 01:37:25,440
Speaker 1: this risking suicide for fear of death, or committing suicide

1751
01:37:25,720 --> 01:37:29,719
Speaker 1: for fear of death. If the actor putin here feels

1752
01:37:30,040 --> 01:37:33,320
Speaker 1: like death is proximate for him or his regime, he

1753
01:37:33,600 --> 01:37:38,000
Speaker 1: might commit the equivalent of geopolitical suicide, which when you

1754
01:37:38,040 --> 01:37:41,720
Speaker 1: have a nuclear arsenal at your disposal, is suicide for

1755
01:37:42,000 --> 01:37:44,040
Speaker 1: a lot more than just putin. I think for all

1756
01:37:44,080 --> 01:37:46,800
Speaker 1: those reasons, it's really clear. It's really important that we

1757
01:37:46,920 --> 01:37:49,880
Speaker 1: be clear about what the off ramp here is to

1758
01:37:50,000 --> 01:37:53,679
Speaker 1: tell Putin, tell people around him, if you do this,

1759
01:37:54,200 --> 01:37:57,640
Speaker 1: then these catastrophic sanctions will come down. If you go

1760
01:37:57,760 --> 01:38:01,839
Speaker 1: this far, these catastrophicss will come down. We are willing

1761
01:38:01,920 --> 01:38:04,280
Speaker 1: to work with you so that you can save face,

1762
01:38:04,840 --> 01:38:08,320
Speaker 1: leave Ukraine, save your country, and also, by the way,

1763
01:38:08,520 --> 01:38:11,639
Speaker 1: save a piece of the global financial and trade system,

1764
01:38:11,720 --> 01:38:15,559
Speaker 1: because Russia is a big economy that is at the

1765
01:38:15,600 --> 01:38:18,679
Speaker 1: heart of a lot of supply chains and global networks. Yeah,

1766
01:38:18,720 --> 01:38:20,479
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think people have really understood thatt

1767
01:38:20,479 --> 01:38:23,120
Speaker 1: me see eleventh largest economy on Earth. Derek, you talk

1768
01:38:23,200 --> 01:38:27,000
Speaker 1: to these people with endgames. At this point, Putin has invaded.

1769
01:38:28,160 --> 01:38:31,760
Speaker 1: He has described to me, painted himself in a political

1770
01:38:31,800 --> 01:38:35,360
Speaker 1: corner of the current Ukrainian regime is unacceptable. So what

1771
01:38:35,400 --> 01:38:38,000
Speaker 1: does an endgame look like which he can live with

1772
01:38:38,040 --> 01:38:41,800
Speaker 1: and which we can live with. That's a good question. Obviously,

1773
01:38:42,000 --> 01:38:48,519
Speaker 1: the endgame involves Putin getting out of the Kiev area, right,

1774
01:38:48,560 --> 01:38:52,160
Speaker 1: that's the most important stop besieging the capital. It would,

1775
01:38:52,160 --> 01:38:55,360
Speaker 1: I hope involve him de escalating significantly and moving his

1776
01:38:55,439 --> 01:38:58,439
Speaker 1: troops out of the vast majority of Ukraine. I'm a

1777
01:38:58,439 --> 01:39:02,479
Speaker 1: little bit concerned about the US asking for something like

1778
01:39:03,320 --> 01:39:06,479
Speaker 1: removal of Russian troops from Crimea. I'm not a military

1779
01:39:06,520 --> 01:39:09,080
Speaker 1: expert here. I'm just saying, if you ask for the

1780
01:39:10,680 --> 01:39:14,720
Speaker 1: for Putin to essentially give back to Ukraine more than

1781
01:39:14,720 --> 01:39:17,880
Speaker 1: it had before the invasion, don't I worry about that

1782
01:39:17,920 --> 01:39:21,400
Speaker 1: extending the length of the war. I'm not sure what

1783
01:39:21,520 --> 01:39:25,000
Speaker 1: the best move there is, but my thesis here is

1784
01:39:25,120 --> 01:39:28,080
Speaker 1: if we can get back to status quo anti ten

1785
01:39:28,160 --> 01:39:32,200
Speaker 1: days ago status quo anti two weeks ago. That would

1786
01:39:32,240 --> 01:39:34,200
Speaker 1: be a win for a lot of people. It would

1787
01:39:34,240 --> 01:39:35,960
Speaker 1: allow Putin to save a certain amount of face. It

1788
01:39:35,960 --> 01:39:38,639
Speaker 1: would certainly save the tens of millions of people who

1789
01:39:38,760 --> 01:39:40,719
Speaker 1: are a part of the Russian economy. It would save

1790
01:39:40,960 --> 01:39:43,960
Speaker 1: an aspect of the global financial system, and it would

1791
01:39:43,960 --> 01:39:50,000
Speaker 1: potentially save Europe from catastrophic escalation in penalties that might

1792
01:39:50,200 --> 01:39:52,759
Speaker 1: or escalation and sanctions that might include Russia shutting off

1793
01:39:53,160 --> 01:39:56,759
Speaker 1: natural gas to Europe during a cold late February early

1794
01:39:56,760 --> 01:40:00,479
Speaker 1: March period. So I think that probably has to be

1795
01:40:00,560 --> 01:40:02,840
Speaker 1: on the table for sure. That's well said. What did

1796
01:40:02,920 --> 01:40:08,839
Speaker 1: your military historian say about what he saw Putin's ultimate

1797
01:40:08,880 --> 01:40:14,360
Speaker 1: objectives here being? Because I mean, obviously he's invaded Ukraine

1798
01:40:14,520 --> 01:40:18,400
Speaker 1: from by all directions and all methods possible. Is he

1799
01:40:18,479 --> 01:40:20,720
Speaker 1: planning to stay in Ukraine? Is he planning to have

1800
01:40:20,760 --> 01:40:23,960
Speaker 1: a puppet government? Is he planning to occupy Ukraine the

1801
01:40:23,960 --> 01:40:27,200
Speaker 1: way that we did a rock What does this ultimate

1802
01:40:27,280 --> 01:40:31,360
Speaker 1: endgame look like? Right? So we talked about five scenarios.

1803
01:40:31,439 --> 01:40:33,479
Speaker 1: I'm not going to walk through all five scenarios, but

1804
01:40:33,560 --> 01:40:37,960
Speaker 1: I will say that scenario three was what Professor Post

1805
01:40:38,000 --> 01:40:43,479
Speaker 1: called annexation that basically means the conquest of Ukraine and

1806
01:40:43,600 --> 01:40:47,120
Speaker 1: something like the end of the state, the independent state

1807
01:40:47,160 --> 01:40:50,000
Speaker 1: of Ukraine, Ukraine being folded into an expanded Russian Empire.

1808
01:40:50,080 --> 01:40:54,519
Speaker 1: That was the goal of Putin, say five six days ago,

1809
01:40:54,560 --> 01:40:58,000
Speaker 1: whenever this war started. What even is time? I think

1810
01:40:58,040 --> 01:41:01,240
Speaker 1: he post said that he imagined Jien Putin had likely

1811
01:41:01,280 --> 01:41:05,920
Speaker 1: downscaled his ambition towards setting up a puppet government in Kiev,

1812
01:41:06,080 --> 01:41:11,280
Speaker 1: conquering Kiv itself, holding Kiv with maybe you know, several

1813
01:41:11,479 --> 01:41:16,160
Speaker 1: tens of thousands of Russian troops, and essentially running Ukraine

1814
01:41:16,479 --> 01:41:19,200
Speaker 1: as an extension of the Russian Empire without conquering the

1815
01:41:19,320 --> 01:41:24,320
Speaker 1: entire country. At this point, given the bravery of the

1816
01:41:24,400 --> 01:41:28,240
Speaker 1: Ukrainian army, given what seems to be the suffering of

1817
01:41:28,439 --> 01:41:31,080
Speaker 1: Russian forces, I saw statistic. I don't want to suggest

1818
01:41:31,080 --> 01:41:32,439
Speaker 1: that this is obviously true. I think it may have

1819
01:41:32,479 --> 01:41:34,360
Speaker 1: come from the Ukrainian government, and they have their own

1820
01:41:34,360 --> 01:41:37,240
Speaker 1: reason to exaggerate the cost to Russia. But it suggested

1821
01:41:37,280 --> 01:41:40,599
Speaker 1: that something like forty five hundred Russian soldiers have died

1822
01:41:40,600 --> 01:41:42,680
Speaker 1: in the first four or five days of fighting. That

1823
01:41:42,800 --> 01:41:45,760
Speaker 1: is more than the total number of American deaths in

1824
01:41:45,800 --> 01:41:50,320
Speaker 1: Iraq in the entire nineteen year history twenty year history

1825
01:41:50,360 --> 01:41:53,040
Speaker 1: of that war, I believe only about two hundred and

1826
01:41:53,080 --> 01:41:55,439
Speaker 1: fifty only I don't need to downplay it. Two hundred

1827
01:41:55,439 --> 01:41:58,519
Speaker 1: to three hundred Americans died in the first year of

1828
01:41:59,160 --> 01:42:02,120
Speaker 1: the Iraq War. That means that Russia is essentially losing

1829
01:42:02,920 --> 01:42:06,599
Speaker 1: on a daily or multi hourly basis as many troops

1830
01:42:06,640 --> 01:42:08,439
Speaker 1: as Americans lost in the entire first year of the

1831
01:42:08,520 --> 01:42:11,240
Speaker 1: war in Iraq. I mean, I think it's important to

1832
01:42:11,280 --> 01:42:14,200
Speaker 1: point out as a piece of context here that this

1833
01:42:14,280 --> 01:42:18,320
Speaker 1: war is not going well for the Russians, and hopefully

1834
01:42:18,400 --> 01:42:21,400
Speaker 1: that pushes them to the bargaining table and we can

1835
01:42:21,520 --> 01:42:23,639
Speaker 1: end this horrible war, and Frank they take off, take

1836
01:42:23,640 --> 01:42:26,120
Speaker 1: off these sanctions and allow the tens of millions of

1837
01:42:26,120 --> 01:42:28,720
Speaker 1: people in the Russian economy to not essentially face the

1838
01:42:28,720 --> 01:42:31,200
Speaker 1: next great depression for their nation. I couldn't agree with

1839
01:42:31,240 --> 01:42:32,920
Speaker 1: you more, you know, Derek, I was thinking about it.

1840
01:42:32,960 --> 01:42:36,840
Speaker 1: Fifteen thousand Soviets were killed in the Soviet Afghan War,

1841
01:42:36,880 --> 01:42:39,559
Speaker 1: and just the fifteen thousand was enough to spark a

1842
01:42:39,600 --> 01:42:43,120
Speaker 1: domestic backlash in Russia. So if they're on track at

1843
01:42:43,160 --> 01:42:45,439
Speaker 1: you know, some four thousand or so roughly, we don't

1844
01:42:45,479 --> 01:42:48,960
Speaker 1: know exactly know the number. You multiply that by two

1845
01:42:49,160 --> 01:42:52,439
Speaker 1: three years. This is a real sea change over there

1846
01:42:52,439 --> 01:42:57,519
Speaker 1: as well. You're talking about just very last point. You're

1847
01:42:57,560 --> 01:43:00,280
Speaker 1: talking about that happening in a matter of four weeks.

1848
01:43:00,320 --> 01:43:02,559
Speaker 1: I'm talking about the equivalent of the Soviet invasion of

1849
01:43:02,560 --> 01:43:06,360
Speaker 1: Afghanistan happening every month, right, So that's twelve Soviet invasions

1850
01:43:06,360 --> 01:43:09,800
Speaker 1: of Afghanistan a year. This may be proving very catastrophic

1851
01:43:09,800 --> 01:43:12,640
Speaker 1: for the Russians, and I very much hope that the

1852
01:43:12,680 --> 01:43:16,240
Speaker 1: appearance of the catastrophic invasion pushes put into the bargaining table.

1853
01:43:16,520 --> 01:43:19,040
Speaker 1: Very very well said. That's what everybody, go subscribe to

1854
01:43:19,080 --> 01:43:21,000
Speaker 1: Derek's podcast. We're going to have the links down there

1855
01:43:21,040 --> 01:43:23,400
Speaker 1: in the description. Always appreciate you man, Thank you for

1856
01:43:23,479 --> 01:43:26,639
Speaker 1: joining us to see Derek. Thank you guys so much

1857
01:43:26,640 --> 01:43:29,840
Speaker 1: for watching. I can appreciate more. I mean, in these times,

1858
01:43:29,680 --> 01:43:32,160
Speaker 1: it's crazy. We both feel like we're like, oh my god,

1859
01:43:32,200 --> 01:43:35,200
Speaker 1: we have so much information that to break down. But look,

1860
01:43:35,240 --> 01:43:37,559
Speaker 1: that's why we do what we do. We can't do

1861
01:43:37,640 --> 01:43:40,800
Speaker 1: it without your support. We have a ton of new partnerships.

1862
01:43:40,800 --> 01:43:43,160
Speaker 1: I hope you guys saw James Lee made his debut

1863
01:43:43,520 --> 01:43:46,240
Speaker 1: on the program. We have Matt Stoler, we have the

1864
01:43:46,360 --> 01:43:49,360
Speaker 1: daily Poster. We got two more coming down the pipeline

1865
01:43:49,400 --> 01:43:51,439
Speaker 1: so I think, or no, three more actually, so we'll

1866
01:43:51,479 --> 01:43:54,720
Speaker 1: have six active partnerships. All of that is enabled by

1867
01:43:54,760 --> 01:43:57,120
Speaker 1: you and your support for us with the premium membership.

1868
01:43:57,280 --> 01:43:59,400
Speaker 1: It gives us the editing power, the graphics power and

1869
01:43:59,439 --> 01:44:02,320
Speaker 1: all that just content which we love and to bring

1870
01:44:02,360 --> 01:44:04,800
Speaker 1: you as much as we possibly can. You know, we

1871
01:44:04,800 --> 01:44:06,960
Speaker 1: were worrying, We're like, is this too much? But the

1872
01:44:06,960 --> 01:44:09,240
Speaker 1: more we post, the more you guys watch. So look,

1873
01:44:10,080 --> 01:44:12,280
Speaker 1: we will continue to do as you ask. Yeah, and

1874
01:44:12,800 --> 01:44:15,720
Speaker 1: part of our goal with those partnerships is, you know,

1875
01:44:15,800 --> 01:44:19,479
Speaker 1: it enables us to have really high quality content for you,

1876
01:44:19,560 --> 01:44:21,240
Speaker 1: so we're not just putting up stuff to put up

1877
01:44:21,240 --> 01:44:24,479
Speaker 1: stuff exactly. I really recommend if you guys have a chance,

1878
01:44:24,920 --> 01:44:27,479
Speaker 1: if you haven't watched it already, go check out James

1879
01:44:27,560 --> 01:44:31,360
Speaker 1: Lee's piece on the MBA program and the way that

1880
01:44:31,400 --> 01:44:34,360
Speaker 1: it's sort of you know, the directions it's pushing our

1881
01:44:34,400 --> 01:44:37,400
Speaker 1: business leaders into, which is hugely significant for all of us.

1882
01:44:37,560 --> 01:44:39,800
Speaker 1: You may need a break from Ukraine and coverage, so

1883
01:44:39,920 --> 01:44:42,040
Speaker 1: go and definitely check that out. We're very excited to

1884
01:44:42,040 --> 01:44:44,920
Speaker 1: have James on board. We're also excited about our live

1885
01:44:44,960 --> 01:44:48,120
Speaker 1: stream tomorrow night for State of the Union. Me, Sager,

1886
01:44:48,240 --> 01:44:50,519
Speaker 1: Marshall and Kyle are all going to be here at

1887
01:44:50,520 --> 01:44:53,000
Speaker 1: this table, big desk, Yes, at the big desk. We

1888
01:44:53,080 --> 01:44:55,120
Speaker 1: got a couple of surprise guests where you too, So

1889
01:44:55,240 --> 01:44:57,160
Speaker 1: before the State of the Union, after the State of

1890
01:44:57,280 --> 01:45:00,400
Speaker 1: the Union. All of these things are enabled by your support.

1891
01:45:00,520 --> 01:45:03,040
Speaker 1: So thank you, thank you, thank you. We are so

1892
01:45:03,160 --> 01:45:05,800
Speaker 1: incredibly grateful. We hope you have a wonderful day and

1893
01:45:05,840 --> 01:45:07,400
Speaker 1: we will see you back here tomorrow. Tomorrow