WEBVTT - MLB Season Long Prop Bets Update (Ep. 90) 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:13.400 It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. 0:00:15.840 --> 0:00:18.520 Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's me Joey p 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:21.239 Joe Pi Zapia, and today we got some more Major 0:00:21.320 --> 0:00:24.880 League Baseball for you. We're talking season long props with 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:27.639 one of my favorite people. You know him from in 0:00:27.800 --> 0:00:30.800 this league. You know him as one of the leaders, 0:00:30.840 --> 0:00:33.800 if not the leader of the IT army, let's be honest. 0:00:33.840 --> 0:00:37.000 And you also know him as the host of Prospect One, 0:00:37.080 --> 0:00:39.960 the greatest prospect show you'll ever find and the coolest 0:00:39.960 --> 0:00:43.400 shirt here with the prospects assembled that is amazing copyright 0:00:43.440 --> 0:00:46.879 infringement to the side. He's the one, the only, my 0:00:47.000 --> 0:00:49.720 good friend, the Welsh Welsh. How are you, my friend? 0:00:49.760 --> 0:00:51.920 What's going on, Joey, what's up, buddy? 0:00:52.000 --> 0:00:55.960 Don't mention copyright. It's totally okay. It's just totally fine, 0:00:56.520 --> 0:00:59.680 totally shirt that you can buy. Yes, what's up, buddy? 0:00:59.680 --> 0:01:01.240 Thank you how much for having me. Glad to be 0:01:01.320 --> 0:01:02.840 back on the Pros with the Joe. 0:01:03.160 --> 0:01:05.240 I know that's right. Pros with the Joe. That's how 0:01:05.240 --> 0:01:07.760 we roll here. And you know it's funny because we 0:01:07.800 --> 0:01:10.399 talked about, you know, coming on for a show and 0:01:10.440 --> 0:01:12.279 things like that. You said, well, I don't know betting 0:01:12.319 --> 0:01:14.959 and stuff like that. But to me, the person you 0:01:15.040 --> 0:01:16.640 want to talk to when it comes to props is 0:01:16.680 --> 0:01:18.960 a fantasy person, especially when you're going to talk about 0:01:18.959 --> 0:01:20.440 some of the rookie of the year stuff today too, 0:01:20.480 --> 0:01:22.680 because you handle all the prospects and you can kind 0:01:22.680 --> 0:01:24.640 of tell us where to put our money. But also, 0:01:25.040 --> 0:01:27.520 I think fantasy people have the best opportunity to give 0:01:27.520 --> 0:01:30.360 you the best information when it comes to who's the 0:01:30.440 --> 0:01:32.640 hit leader this year, who's the k leader, who is 0:01:32.840 --> 0:01:36.160 progressing in that fashion, because that is a little bit deeper. 0:01:36.200 --> 0:01:38.520 That's more about digging into the stats and digging into 0:01:38.560 --> 0:01:40.360 the numbers and more than just the trends and the 0:01:40.400 --> 0:01:42.440 recent bias and things like that. And I think it 0:01:42.480 --> 0:01:45.040 takes a really good fantasy person that is you, my friend. 0:01:45.600 --> 0:01:48.000 So I wanted to chat for you about this. How 0:01:48.000 --> 0:01:49.520 are you enjoying the baseball season? 0:01:49.560 --> 0:01:52.360 First off, Oh, that's a loaded question. 0:01:52.480 --> 0:01:55.400 It's a loaded question. I know what it's full of. 0:01:55.480 --> 0:01:58.200 And I want to ask you because there's been some 0:01:58.280 --> 0:02:00.240 good and some bad so far this year. So I'm 0:02:00.240 --> 0:02:02.400 curious what's your take on the year in twenty twenty one. 0:02:02.680 --> 0:02:05.360 You know, I don't ironically, maybe to some people like 0:02:05.360 --> 0:02:08.079 I don't want to be like the negative guy, even 0:02:08.120 --> 0:02:10.119 though I can be kind of a negative guy because 0:02:10.160 --> 0:02:12.799 there's so much great stuff about it. But I think 0:02:12.800 --> 0:02:15.160 it's been a loaded year across the board. There's so 0:02:15.240 --> 0:02:19.560 many things that show how much baseball is working against itself, 0:02:19.560 --> 0:02:21.880 which really bothered me. From the littlest thing. John, I 0:02:21.919 --> 0:02:24.919 was just talking about this on the Ende Fantasy Baseball podcast, 0:02:25.080 --> 0:02:28.680 Like you go and look at Key Brian Hayes losing 0:02:28.720 --> 0:02:31.080 a home run because of the base thing. I know 0:02:31.120 --> 0:02:33.120 it's like a technicality, but it's such a silly thing 0:02:33.160 --> 0:02:35.160 that hurts baseball. You think it's good for baseball for 0:02:35.240 --> 0:02:37.880 Kee Brian Hayes to literally hit a home run over 0:02:38.040 --> 0:02:41.919 the wall, and then you have this little like foot issue. 0:02:41.960 --> 0:02:45.720 Bobby Witt had the exactly, it's the same day, the 0:02:45.800 --> 0:02:48.600 same day Bobby Witt had it. That's not good for baseball. 0:02:48.840 --> 0:02:52.280 The spider, you know, the all of the sticky and 0:02:52.320 --> 0:02:54.440 that type of stuff, it's not good for baseball. The 0:02:54.480 --> 0:02:58.760 COVID issues, there's been so much negativity in that front 0:02:58.800 --> 0:03:02.280 that it's made it to enjoy baseball. Also, my team 0:03:02.320 --> 0:03:07.040 Arizona Diamondbacks are the biggest garbage pile in baseball, which 0:03:07.040 --> 0:03:08.720 has made it tough. But at the end of the day, 0:03:09.200 --> 0:03:12.320 I love it and I've expanded, you know, my fantasy 0:03:12.520 --> 0:03:16.040 stuff into I'm literally doing everything from points to dynasty, 0:03:16.120 --> 0:03:19.480 to head to head to like weird Big sixteen twenty four. 0:03:19.760 --> 0:03:21.880 I do all the different leagues to really kind of 0:03:21.919 --> 0:03:24.720 expand how I'm playing. But you know, Joe, can I 0:03:24.720 --> 0:03:27.480 ask you one question? Since the Bedding Show, I was 0:03:27.520 --> 0:03:29.920 just talking to someone about this and we were talking 0:03:29.919 --> 0:03:31.880 about the industry. As you're asking me how I'm enjoying 0:03:31.880 --> 0:03:33.880 the baseball season, Like, I'm enjoying it fine with all 0:03:33.919 --> 0:03:35.840 the negativities that come with it and all of the 0:03:35.920 --> 0:03:38.720 adjustments that you have to do. But you know, the 0:03:38.800 --> 0:03:42.600 DFS world, in the gambling world is very unique and 0:03:42.640 --> 0:03:45.119 interesting to me that the one thing I was saying, 0:03:45.160 --> 0:03:46.680 and I've always harped on and you agree with me, 0:03:46.800 --> 0:03:48.840 is like baseball should be fun like you want, and 0:03:48.840 --> 0:03:50.760 fantasy should be fun. By the way I play fantasy, 0:03:50.800 --> 0:03:54.080 it should be fun. I feel like more than ever 0:03:54.600 --> 0:03:58.400 the fun has escaped fantasy when it has come to 0:03:58.480 --> 0:04:01.200 gambling and DFS it's more serious, it's than ever been 0:04:01.240 --> 0:04:03.320 it's ever been because it's big money and there's stuff 0:04:03.360 --> 0:04:06.200 like that. But how like, have you ever tackled how 0:04:06.200 --> 0:04:09.520 do you bring the fun back into dfs? Not just 0:04:09.560 --> 0:04:10.960 same question, you know what? 0:04:11.080 --> 0:04:13.560 For me, honestly, I think the in game betting is 0:04:13.600 --> 0:04:15.440 super fun where you're just watching a game and you 0:04:15.440 --> 0:04:17.240 can kind of get involved in that and kind of 0:04:17.320 --> 0:04:19.760 ride that wave. I think that's very different. That's really 0:04:19.800 --> 0:04:21.720 evolved and kind of taking on. And for those of 0:04:21.720 --> 0:04:23.200 you who don't know what I mean, when you're watching 0:04:23.200 --> 0:04:24.960 a game, you can literally get in there and start 0:04:25.000 --> 0:04:28.039 to make bets about the over unders changing or you 0:04:28.080 --> 0:04:30.039 know whether or not another team's going to take the lead, 0:04:30.240 --> 0:04:32.200 or I mean, it's crazy some of the things that 0:04:32.240 --> 0:04:35.640 are available to you in the game as things are 0:04:35.640 --> 0:04:38.160 going on or really kind of changing that. I think 0:04:38.160 --> 0:04:40.560 it all depends on how you look at it. If 0:04:40.600 --> 0:04:43.120 you are somebody that does it as you know, a 0:04:43.240 --> 0:04:45.320 very super serious thing, or if it's more of a 0:04:45.440 --> 0:04:47.320 fun thing. And I think that's more for the individual 0:04:47.360 --> 0:04:49.520 to keep it fun. The TDFs to me, has been 0:04:49.520 --> 0:04:51.800 more fun than season long baseball, to be honest with you, 0:04:51.839 --> 0:04:55.839 because the season long baseball injury train is brutal. I 0:04:55.960 --> 0:04:57.279 just want to go out there some nights and just 0:04:57.279 --> 0:04:59.039 put a lineup together, I like, and not have to 0:04:59.040 --> 0:05:01.800 worry about drops and ads and trades and who's going 0:05:01.839 --> 0:05:03.719 on the IL and replacing this player and all that 0:05:03.760 --> 0:05:05.720 stuff and all that work and all the investment going 0:05:05.720 --> 0:05:06.960 down the drink because I got I got my three 0:05:06.960 --> 0:05:09.000 best players in the IL. And I think that's where 0:05:09.000 --> 0:05:11.680 the dfs and really starts to, you know, come in 0:05:11.760 --> 0:05:14.640 and change things from a from a betting wagering perspective 0:05:14.640 --> 0:05:17.239 where you're playing the game differently. So I actually prefer 0:05:17.680 --> 0:05:20.960 the hyper focus of MLB dfs and some of the 0:05:21.000 --> 0:05:24.839 wagering than to the other stuff. Necessarily, this season long baseball, 0:05:24.920 --> 0:05:27.600 especially the RODO is a bit of a grind by comparison. 0:05:27.600 --> 0:05:28.880 I think it's a really good conversation. 0:05:29.200 --> 0:05:31.520 It is, and I think it comes back and the 0:05:31.560 --> 0:05:33.520 reason I asked it also not just because this is 0:05:33.560 --> 0:05:35.240 like you know, we're talking gambling and betting and stuff 0:05:35.279 --> 0:05:36.960 like that, but like you know, you asked me, like, 0:05:36.960 --> 0:05:39.839 how am I enjoying the season more and more? For 0:05:39.880 --> 0:05:42.000 people like us? And I think for more people in 0:05:42.000 --> 0:05:45.880 general is I think when you ask that question, it's 0:05:45.880 --> 0:05:48.200 not just about like, you know, the sentinity of the 0:05:48.240 --> 0:05:50.839 game and blaha and baseball it's not helping itself, but 0:05:50.920 --> 0:05:53.560 let the kids play. It's not even just necessarily about that. 0:05:53.680 --> 0:05:57.080 It's also it's intertwining because I think when you ask 0:05:57.120 --> 0:05:59.599 someone like, hey, are you enjoying the season, they might 0:05:59.720 --> 0:06:02.520 answer that from a gambling perspective. You know, Oh, I'm 0:06:02.640 --> 0:06:04.480 arguing with people and I'm not making money and this 0:06:04.560 --> 0:06:06.760 site didn't help me get this, or I'm just on 0:06:06.800 --> 0:06:10.120 a bad streak. Like the exterior things that we do 0:06:10.240 --> 0:06:12.120 to have fun, and yes, they can be businesses and 0:06:12.160 --> 0:06:14.760 they can be lifestyles and likelihood, to be honest with you, 0:06:14.800 --> 0:06:18.560 but like the way people speak about their enjoyment of 0:06:18.600 --> 0:06:22.280 the game can be skewed by that that can be 0:06:22.320 --> 0:06:24.760 the impetus to all of those issues. And you know, 0:06:24.800 --> 0:06:27.760 I just I always reiterate there can be be money 0:06:27.760 --> 0:06:30.320 on the line, and I think how much money you 0:06:30.360 --> 0:06:33.359 put on the line should also be dictated by the 0:06:33.520 --> 0:06:36.320 level of enjoyment in these games that we play. And 0:06:36.560 --> 0:06:38.200 you know, I think when people put more money on 0:06:38.240 --> 0:06:41.039 the line than they should, or they overextend themselves by 0:06:41.080 --> 0:06:44.800 doing too much, you lose focus and you have less fun. 0:06:44.880 --> 0:06:47.159 And then that's sometimes where burnout comes in, because you 0:06:47.160 --> 0:06:49.480 should want to have as much fun as possible no 0:06:49.520 --> 0:06:52.120 matter what you're doing and what type of money is 0:06:52.160 --> 0:06:54.400 on the line. You want to keep within your ability 0:06:54.440 --> 0:06:56.280 to also enjoy the thing that you're doing. 0:06:56.560 --> 0:06:58.760 Yeah, and I think part of that joy is also 0:06:58.839 --> 0:07:00.919 knowing when to make the wage. Like, for instance, you know, 0:07:00.960 --> 0:07:03.880 I loved Otani coming into this year for MVP, but 0:07:03.920 --> 0:07:05.799 I wasn't getting bed at twenty to one or thirty 0:07:05.839 --> 0:07:07.400 or one before the season. I needed to see a 0:07:07.400 --> 0:07:10.239 little bit. And then the challenge to me is watching 0:07:10.280 --> 0:07:12.239 things evolve and then getting in at the right time. 0:07:12.320 --> 0:07:14.040 Like I love the Brewers, but I didn't wager on 0:07:14.120 --> 0:07:16.160 them yet, and Yelich got hurt and I was happy 0:07:16.240 --> 0:07:18.760 I didn't, and then Yelich came back, and then Flowerty 0:07:18.760 --> 0:07:21.040 got hurt, and the Milwaukee Brewers pictures look really good, 0:07:21.040 --> 0:07:22.920 and I started to change my tune a little bit. 0:07:23.120 --> 0:07:25.800 But I'm still waiting. So I got in on Otani, 0:07:25.880 --> 0:07:27.520 I haven't gotten in on the Brewers. There's some other 0:07:27.560 --> 0:07:29.400 things that I'm looking at right now. We're gonna try 0:07:29.400 --> 0:07:31.840 to kind of look at them as well today and 0:07:31.920 --> 0:07:34.120 talk about some of these individuals, because I think a 0:07:34.200 --> 0:07:37.240 third plus into the season, basically here we are in 0:07:37.280 --> 0:07:39.600 that sense, and now's the time where you have a 0:07:39.640 --> 0:07:41.440 better picture of where things are. You have a better 0:07:41.480 --> 0:07:44.120 picture two of injuries and how they've affected things. So 0:07:44.200 --> 0:07:47.440 let's start with most hits now on the betting pros 0:07:47.440 --> 0:07:51.720 and the consensus line here, DJ Lemayhew was the best 0:07:51.760 --> 0:07:55.320 odds at plus eight hundred, then wit Merrifield, wit Meryfield, 0:07:55.320 --> 0:07:57.760 big fan always at ten to one, Trey Turner at 0:07:57.800 --> 0:08:00.760 eleven to one, Mookie Bets twelve to one, and Mookie 0:08:00.760 --> 0:08:03.720 has struggled quite a bit. Lindor Tim Anderson, these were 0:08:03.720 --> 0:08:05.640 some other names that were kind of out there, but 0:08:06.200 --> 0:08:09.440 obviously going in, wit Marryfield was still my pick going in. 0:08:10.200 --> 0:08:12.080 That was the guy that I thought people should be 0:08:12.160 --> 0:08:14.640 leaning towards if they wanted to make this wager. Is 0:08:14.680 --> 0:08:16.920 it still wit Maryfield for you or do you see 0:08:16.920 --> 0:08:20.240 somebody else kind of emerging? As you know, this guy 0:08:20.320 --> 0:08:22.680 really has the inroads to be the hit leader of 0:08:22.680 --> 0:08:25.680 Major League Baseball because we've had some phenomenal performances so 0:08:25.760 --> 0:08:27.840 far in the first two months of the season. Yeah. 0:08:27.880 --> 0:08:30.520 I mean, I think there's there's a couple in line 0:08:30.560 --> 0:08:33.280 with here if you're talking about like where we stand 0:08:33.360 --> 0:08:35.880 now and if I were, you know, trying to jump 0:08:35.960 --> 0:08:37.760 in and whatever that could be. You know, someone I 0:08:37.800 --> 0:08:40.080 think that's making a crazy case right now and you 0:08:40.160 --> 0:08:42.439 never would have bet them is actually Cedric Mullins, who 0:08:42.480 --> 0:08:45.760 is a third in baseball in hits with seventy five, 0:08:45.840 --> 0:08:49.319 and he's just been next level. But you know, I 0:08:49.360 --> 0:08:53.400 think preseason I might have gone DJ Lemayhew, you know, 0:08:53.559 --> 0:08:57.640 mister you know, mister, no laun changle and just hit 0:08:57.760 --> 0:09:00.160 hit hit, hit hit. That would have been guy. What 0:09:00.200 --> 0:09:03.520 a concept Welsh, Yeah, exactly, it could work. But trade 0:09:03.559 --> 0:09:05.560 Turner would be the guy for me that I would 0:09:05.600 --> 0:09:08.680 look at in this because he's currently fourth in baseball 0:09:08.720 --> 0:09:11.840 or at least tied for fourth with ikf Isa Isaiah 0:09:11.920 --> 0:09:15.360 kind of flavor what's up spot, and Turner is fourth 0:09:15.440 --> 0:09:17.600 in that right now, and he's right on the heels 0:09:17.640 --> 0:09:21.400 of the surprising leader in hits in baseball, Adam Fraser, 0:09:21.400 --> 0:09:23.240 who's probably going to be one of the first people 0:09:23.280 --> 0:09:25.959 traded by the trade deadlines. So I mean, I think 0:09:26.000 --> 0:09:29.679 at this moment, if I'm you know, if I'm diving 0:09:29.679 --> 0:09:31.599 in it's trade. Turner is the guy for me that 0:09:31.640 --> 0:09:33.520 I wold feel best about. But I would I probably 0:09:33.520 --> 0:09:34.560 would have gone in La Mayhew. 0:09:34.600 --> 0:09:36.400 So if you still have, i mean, with Fraser and 0:09:36.400 --> 0:09:38.360 some of these eccentric mollins of guys you'd expect to 0:09:38.360 --> 0:09:40.079 be there, if you could still go out there and 0:09:40.160 --> 0:09:43.000 make that Trey Turner wager at reasonable let's say even 0:09:43.040 --> 0:09:45.040 a five to one in some spots, would that be 0:09:45.080 --> 0:09:47.000 a wager you'd be willing to go for? Yeah? 0:09:47.040 --> 0:09:49.400 With Turner, I mean, the only thing holding him back, 0:09:49.480 --> 0:09:52.000 which I actually think plays really well into the bet 0:09:52.040 --> 0:09:54.240 that you're talking about, like your bet here if it 0:09:54.280 --> 0:09:57.000 was like plus one thousand, is Trey Turner's injury history. 0:09:57.200 --> 0:09:59.200 Like that is the one thing that you would have 0:09:59.240 --> 0:10:02.120 to consider when you're doing it. But yeah, I mean, 0:10:02.160 --> 0:10:04.760 I think he's been otherworldly and he's making everything happen. 0:10:04.800 --> 0:10:07.440 He's hitting over three hundred and the names above him, 0:10:07.480 --> 0:10:10.360 by the way, are just not as trustworthy names Cedric Mullins, 0:10:10.360 --> 0:10:14.800 Adam Fraser and even Nick cass Casianos isn't necessarily a 0:10:15.320 --> 0:10:17.200 He's not the pillar of hits. He's not the pillar 0:10:17.240 --> 0:10:19.440 of average and he's hitting three fifty seven. There's no 0:10:19.480 --> 0:10:21.440 way that's gonna last. And the guys that are on 0:10:21.480 --> 0:10:24.080 his heels, there's some interesting ones that are in there. 0:10:24.120 --> 0:10:26.320 I mean, Vladimir Guerrero Junior is in that. But based 0:10:26.320 --> 0:10:29.199 on these guys that we're talking about, Yeah, I think 0:10:29.280 --> 0:10:32.359 Trey Turner would be my bet Wit would be number two. Obviously, 0:10:32.520 --> 0:10:35.160 LeMay Hugh's off of this and I mean sant Lendoor 0:10:35.240 --> 0:10:38.000 on this list like what a what a bye? 0:10:38.040 --> 0:10:39.240 And this is what we're trying to do. We're trying 0:10:39.280 --> 0:10:40.920 to take where things were in the beginning of the 0:10:40.960 --> 0:10:43.120 season and kind of take the temperature of them now. 0:10:43.440 --> 0:10:45.199 And the same thing goes for the home runs, because 0:10:45.360 --> 0:10:49.120 going into the season, you'd get Vladdie for plus forty 0:10:49.280 --> 0:10:53.120 four forty four to one. Oh yea forty four hundred 0:10:53.240 --> 0:10:56.120 unbelievable going into the season for Vla Guerrero Junior, right, 0:10:56.360 --> 0:10:59.040 some of the favorites for Cody Bellinger, Jose Ramirez, Fernando 0:10:59.160 --> 0:11:03.120 Tatis was it minus one twenty four, Ronald Acunya one 0:11:03.200 --> 0:11:07.280 eighteen so Akunya Tatist obviously still up there. Otani vlad 0:11:07.360 --> 0:11:11.160 still in this conversation too, so in your mind right now, 0:11:11.520 --> 0:11:14.120 seeing what you've seen so far, who do you think 0:11:14.160 --> 0:11:15.959 at the end is going when the dust cell is 0:11:16.000 --> 0:11:18.800 going to lead the major leagues in home runs? 0:11:18.360 --> 0:11:21.000 I legit AM going to have a hard time coming 0:11:21.000 --> 0:11:23.000 off of Vladimir Carrera Junior. I mean this has been 0:11:23.040 --> 0:11:24.319 a big thing of Oh. I mean, you know we've 0:11:24.400 --> 0:11:27.160 been doing shows for years. Oh yeah, Like I've watched 0:11:27.280 --> 0:11:30.600 Vladimir Guerrero, you know, just come up through the miners, 0:11:30.640 --> 0:11:32.199 and I got to spend a decent amount of time 0:11:32.200 --> 0:11:34.160 seeing him in person when he was out here in 0:11:34.200 --> 0:11:36.240 Arizona during the Arizona Fall League. I I think in 0:11:36.320 --> 0:11:39.400 twenty eighteen it was and the one thing that would 0:11:39.559 --> 0:11:42.120 maybe seventeen, it doesn't matter. The one thing I would 0:11:42.120 --> 0:11:43.720 stand out about him is he has some of the 0:11:43.720 --> 0:11:46.640 best plate presents you've ever seen. He hits the ball 0:11:46.679 --> 0:11:50.280 incredibly hard, but he was obviously looking for his spot. 0:11:50.320 --> 0:11:53.080 But the negative on him for everybody was like, oh, 0:11:53.160 --> 0:11:54.760 he's just not getting the ball in the air launch angle. 0:11:54.840 --> 0:11:57.720 So he has this like mediocre year where people start going, Okay, 0:11:57.720 --> 0:11:59.600 you know, he's a really good talent, but he's overrated. 0:11:59.600 --> 0:12:01.520 He doesn't hit homers, and this is me as a 0:12:01.559 --> 0:12:05.600 prospect person. You know, prospects a symbol I say, I 0:12:05.640 --> 0:12:07.760 tell you, I say, And this would be the same 0:12:07.800 --> 0:12:09.280 thing I would I would bring up with if we 0:12:09.280 --> 0:12:11.199 were going to talk about Jared kell Nick, I would say, listen, 0:12:11.320 --> 0:12:14.080 you've got to let the process happen and the people 0:12:14.120 --> 0:12:16.480 that have focused on these minor leaguers and if you 0:12:16.640 --> 0:12:18.480 believe and you kind of trust in what they say, 0:12:18.840 --> 0:12:21.839 like follow their path and if if I happen to 0:12:21.880 --> 0:12:24.920 be one of those people, I've like been steadfast to say, 0:12:24.960 --> 0:12:27.160 like Blaim mcgerre Junior is going to be a star, 0:12:27.400 --> 0:12:31.200 Like I'm not worried about having a seven degree launch 0:12:31.200 --> 0:12:33.080 angle or anything like that. Like he's going to hit 0:12:33.120 --> 0:12:35.800 the ball hard, he's going to mash. He worked on 0:12:35.880 --> 0:12:37.360 his body, and he looks like one of the best 0:12:37.360 --> 0:12:39.440 players in baseball right now, and he's crushing homers. That's 0:12:39.480 --> 0:12:41.560 the only thing that people were taking away from him. 0:12:41.720 --> 0:12:44.120 And he's got a three thirty five average, So all 0:12:44.160 --> 0:12:46.440 of that to be said. Vladimir Guerrero would be my 0:12:46.640 --> 0:12:49.160 bet on this. The Otani one is super fun, though, 0:12:49.480 --> 0:12:51.199 but you know where the payout was for a lot 0:12:51.200 --> 0:12:53.480 of people wouldn't have been like MVP or home run 0:12:53.600 --> 0:12:56.079 leader was I want to say that the Otani home 0:12:56.160 --> 0:12:58.079 run total was set at like twenty and a half 0:12:58.160 --> 0:13:01.000 and we might get that by like the extra week. Yeah, 0:13:01.040 --> 0:13:03.120 we're gonna hit that by like next week, so that's okay. 0:13:03.200 --> 0:13:05.040 And I would have taken I would love to tell 0:13:05.040 --> 0:13:08.040 you I would have sat here and take taken Otani's MVP. 0:13:08.160 --> 0:13:10.760 I probably wouldn't have. I won one hundred percent the 0:13:10.920 --> 0:13:13.640 smash that Otani over twenty because this was one of 0:13:13.640 --> 0:13:16.719 my big my big predictions, my bold predictions on the 0:13:16.800 --> 0:13:19.280 year was Otani was gonna go twenty five plus on 0:13:19.400 --> 0:13:24.000 Homer's and that seems insanely silly now, but uh, you know, 0:13:24.120 --> 0:13:26.719 if you thought about the preseason with health and being 0:13:26.760 --> 0:13:28.000 able to continue their billing. 0:13:27.800 --> 0:13:30.440 It sure you know. And the thing I keep coming 0:13:30.480 --> 0:13:32.360 back and I got inven Otani. I put my trips 0:13:32.400 --> 0:13:34.400 down at six to one, six and a half to one, 0:13:34.880 --> 0:13:36.760 which I was very pleased because now that's a lot. 0:13:36.960 --> 0:13:38.839 Forget it like he's gonna be minus at some point. 0:13:39.080 --> 0:13:41.760 And I'm gonna ask you this question and I want 0:13:41.840 --> 0:13:43.240 your take on it, and then we'll move on to 0:13:43.320 --> 0:13:46.720 the next category here, because no matter what Vlad does. 0:13:47.520 --> 0:13:51.000 If Otani is within you know, ten percent of it 0:13:51.400 --> 0:13:55.120 and pitching, how does Vlad compete for the MVP. Like 0:13:55.160 --> 0:13:57.560 that's the thing I can't wrap my mind around of 0:13:57.679 --> 0:14:01.080 Lad Guerrero MVP as long as Otani keeps some kind 0:14:01.120 --> 0:14:02.000 of pace with him. 0:14:01.880 --> 0:14:05.000 Right because he doesn't. He doesn't, I mean he Otani 0:14:05.080 --> 0:14:07.760 has been the leader of the MVP race. 0:14:07.559 --> 0:14:10.440 For especially with Trout going down to that really maximized 0:14:10.440 --> 0:14:11.960 it too, because you took that other guy who was 0:14:12.000 --> 0:14:13.840 on the same team, and then you start to write 0:14:13.920 --> 0:14:16.360 the narrative of well, you know, no, Trout, look at 0:14:16.360 --> 0:14:17.880 what the guy's doing, and he's did in four hundred 0:14:17.880 --> 0:14:19.760 said we put bombs last night's crazy. 0:14:20.240 --> 0:14:22.440 It's at minimum four weeks. He's been the leader at 0:14:22.440 --> 0:14:25.560 the MVP, and he's so far along in this race 0:14:25.640 --> 0:14:29.240 right now that you can't in my eyes, this is 0:14:29.320 --> 0:14:34.480 just me. You can't talk about anybody keeping pace with Otani. 0:14:34.840 --> 0:14:37.840 You have to talk about a guy going so far 0:14:37.880 --> 0:14:42.320 in above and beyond Otani to do this, because they'll 0:14:42.320 --> 0:14:45.640 be got Akunya lad Tatis. They're gonna have more Homers, 0:14:45.760 --> 0:14:47.400 They're gonna have a couple of them, will have some 0:14:47.440 --> 0:14:50.000 more stolen bases, they'll have they'll have at least ten 0:14:50.120 --> 0:14:54.000 to twenty percent more offensive production at minimum. Okay, but 0:14:54.080 --> 0:14:57.360 that's not enough because Atani is also doing it on 0:14:57.400 --> 0:15:00.520 the mound, and he is an elite hit right now, 0:15:00.520 --> 0:15:02.880 We're not even talking about a guy that's like he's 0:15:03.080 --> 0:15:06.400 utility only and he's a top ten Fantasy player right 0:15:06.440 --> 0:15:09.160 now in season long. And then you put him on 0:15:09.160 --> 0:15:12.040 the mound and he's putting up big strikeout games. There's 0:15:12.080 --> 0:15:14.440 no one remotely close. It's a huge payoff if you 0:15:14.480 --> 0:15:16.800 bet the MVP. And if I was doing it right now, 0:15:16.960 --> 0:15:19.920 I'm getting any plus odds. I'm still going Otani because 0:15:20.080 --> 0:15:21.000 you know, I mean, if you wanted to go on 0:15:21.040 --> 0:15:24.240 another spot, I would look at like Tatis Junior. But 0:15:24.440 --> 0:15:26.480 I don't think Vlad is going to do it. Even 0:15:26.480 --> 0:15:28.560 if he leads a league in home runs, that doesn't 0:15:28.600 --> 0:15:30.360 really matter to me. I mean maybe triple crown. I 0:15:30.400 --> 0:15:32.280 suppose triple crown is the thing that keeps it in it, 0:15:32.320 --> 0:15:33.320 But even then I don't think. 0:15:33.520 --> 0:15:34.440 I think. 0:15:36.040 --> 0:15:37.480 Pitching just changes the whole nation. 0:15:37.880 --> 0:15:40.840 Legit, I would love to know what people think about this, 0:15:40.920 --> 0:15:45.040 because I legit think Vlad could have the triple crown, 0:15:45.200 --> 0:15:47.680 and I still think he doesn't win MVP over that. 0:15:47.680 --> 0:15:49.360 That's fascinating. I'm gonna have to steal that for a 0:15:49.400 --> 0:15:51.960 conversation on tomorrow's leading off on Fantasy Pros, because that 0:15:52.000 --> 0:15:54.160 is a great question. If Lad wins a triple crown, 0:15:55.120 --> 0:15:57.320 is that enough still? I don't know if it is. 0:15:57.360 --> 0:16:00.240 Assuming O Tawni like finishes like the season. 0:16:00.840 --> 0:16:02.800 A dozen wins or something like that, he strikes out 0:16:02.800 --> 0:16:05.480 one hundred and seventy guys. I mean, it's just when 0:16:05.520 --> 0:16:07.560 you're playing two ways, I just don't know. 0:16:07.880 --> 0:16:09.680 He would be putting out the shares. You know, he 0:16:09.720 --> 0:16:13.320 would be putting up two seasons worth of production at 0:16:13.400 --> 0:16:16.200 two different positions of what people would have got. He 0:16:16.320 --> 0:16:19.120 legit could have forty homers, twenty stolen bases, he could 0:16:19.160 --> 0:16:21.600 have eight to ten wins with a bunch of strikeouts. 0:16:21.600 --> 0:16:24.520 It's what you would think about him over two years. 0:16:24.560 --> 0:16:27.080 And by the way, it's two different positions doing this, 0:16:27.240 --> 0:16:32.160 So triple Crown Vlad versus SUPERSTARO Tani, I just don't know. 0:16:32.800 --> 0:16:34.320 And that's the closest I think you can get. 0:16:34.600 --> 0:16:38.560 Yeah, that's a great conversation to have stolen bases obviously, 0:16:38.560 --> 0:16:42.000 going into the air at Alberto Mondesa was his favorite 0:16:42.000 --> 0:16:44.720 at minus one twenty five. But I don't know if 0:16:44.760 --> 0:16:47.080 he's gonna have enough games to play really even to 0:16:47.080 --> 0:16:49.520 get into this conversation, that's the problem. It's like, you know, 0:16:49.560 --> 0:16:51.840 people thought he might steal, you know, fifty sixty bases. 0:16:51.880 --> 0:16:54.640 We're lucky if he plays fifty sixty games. At this point, 0:16:55.080 --> 0:16:58.520 Trey Turner was at plus four point fifty, Ronald Acunia 0:16:58.560 --> 0:17:01.840 plus six hundred, with Maryfield plus seven. Fernando tuttis junior 0:17:02.160 --> 0:17:05.120 in this conversation, as well as Boba Schett. But if 0:17:05.119 --> 0:17:07.120 you had to put the money down right now, who 0:17:07.119 --> 0:17:09.439 do you think is going to lead the league the 0:17:09.480 --> 0:17:12.320 rest of the season here and cumulatively in stolen bases? 0:17:12.320 --> 0:17:14.520 Who would be that guy for you? And again taking 0:17:14.520 --> 0:17:16.200 Trey Turner's injury history even into. 0:17:16.080 --> 0:17:19.240 Account, Yeah, I mean I lean to wit Merrifield, and 0:17:19.240 --> 0:17:21.080 I hate being the guy that's like picking the guy 0:17:21.119 --> 0:17:22.600 at the top. But I mean, he's got four more 0:17:22.600 --> 0:17:25.080 stolen bases than any other player. And even though if 0:17:25.119 --> 0:17:27.159 I think an argument you could say is like if 0:17:27.160 --> 0:17:29.399 I think Trey Turner is going to have the most hits, 0:17:29.640 --> 0:17:32.240 that gives more on base opportunities, but he's just stealing 0:17:32.240 --> 0:17:34.040 at like a little bit less of a clip where 0:17:34.280 --> 0:17:36.560 you know, the Royals are manufacturing as much as possible, 0:17:36.560 --> 0:17:38.680 and I think Witt is in that discussion, has less 0:17:38.680 --> 0:17:41.679 of an injury history, and you know, once the Royals 0:17:41.720 --> 0:17:43.919 get going, they run almost more than anybody, and if 0:17:43.960 --> 0:17:47.120