Speaker 1: From the Abraham Lincoln Radio Studio at the George Washington
Speaker 1: Broadcast Center. Armstrong and Show Jetty Armstrong and Jetti show
Speaker 1: an aerial show of force from the Chinese military, the
Speaker 1: largest incursion ever inside Taiwan's air defense zone fifty six
Speaker 1: planes nearly one fifty flights since Chinese National Day Friday.
Speaker 1: China use Taiwan as a breakaway profits and Chinese President
Speaker 1: Chi Jianping has pledged to bring the island under Chinese
Speaker 1: Communist Party control. He said time and time again, we're
Speaker 1: going to resolve this issue with Taiwan. If it has
Speaker 1: to be by force, it will be by force. And
Speaker 1: we're not going to pass this problem once in the
Speaker 1: next generation. Yeah, So, China has been flying a warplanes
Speaker 1: in the Taiwan's air defense space in the last couple
Speaker 1: of days. As you heard, there over a hundred military
Speaker 1: aircraft have flown near Taiwan. That's between Friday and Sunday,
Speaker 1: including eighty fighter jets, four bombers, five anti subplanes, and
Speaker 1: four early warning aircraft. That seems fairly provocative. The question
Speaker 1: is what is China up to. We have a number
Speaker 1: of questions and Mike Lions military analysts joins US. Mike
Speaker 1: served with various military organizations both the United States and
Speaker 1: Europe throughout his career. Mike, welcome, how are you guys.
Speaker 1: So great to be back with you. Thank you. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's always a pleasure. So I just have a very
Speaker 1: basic question. What's an air defense space. I assume that's
Speaker 1: different than their national airspace, right, it's twelve miles outside
Speaker 1: the border of where the land hits. And so each
Speaker 1: country has an area through international law that says they
Speaker 1: own space twelve miles outside where the land starts. And
Speaker 1: so when you get outside, you know, inside of that,
Speaker 1: you're allowed to defend your land space. Um, and so
Speaker 1: missile systems have got at least go to that place.
Speaker 1: And so now once the Chinese violate that, there in
Speaker 1: theory violating the sovereignty of that country in this state, Taiwan.
Speaker 1: So it's very much like putting your finger an inch
Speaker 1: from somebody's nose. You haven't touched them, but the incursion
Speaker 1: is absolutely intentional, right, And this is different than the
Speaker 1: kind of the classic Cold War ones where Russia would
Speaker 1: do this to the United States. They would you know,
Speaker 1: kind of come out just to the edge of our
Speaker 1: of our that space there, and we would see it
Speaker 1: was designed to see how fast we would have learned
Speaker 1: and to deploy aircraft to respond. So we looked at
Speaker 1: that as just them testing us to see how we
Speaker 1: would respond. Here this is different because you know, when
Speaker 1: you send a hundred and fifty planes into this area,
Speaker 1: you're not you can't respond. There's there's you can only
Speaker 1: do so much. This is about. This is a threat.
Speaker 1: There's no question about that. This is clearly a threat
Speaker 1: to to Taiwan and the Chinese states in response to
Speaker 1: our naval exercises that are taking place in Oakland now.
Speaker 1: And that's a couple of you know, island zones up
Speaker 1: to the north. But again, what's happening here is something
Speaker 1: we just really haven't seen the Chinese doing a long time. Okay,
Speaker 1: So I just want to make sure I understand this.
Speaker 1: So it sounds it seems to me. It sounds to
Speaker 1: me like so they got it. They had enough badass
Speaker 1: aircraft flying close enough to Taiwan that if they have
Speaker 1: wanted to do something, they have done it and it
Speaker 1: would have been too late for any US or anybody
Speaker 1: to stop it. Oh, no question. I mean that we
Speaker 1: don't have that kind of capability on the island itself.
Speaker 1: I mean, Taiwan has some basic air defense platforms, surface
Speaker 1: to air missile systems, but nothing that can take out
Speaker 1: what they put over there. I mean, if those the
Speaker 1: H six bombers, for example, they're nuclear capable, you know,
Speaker 1: they open their their doors drop bombs on Taiwan, it's uh,
Speaker 1: it's over. I mean there's in this, you know, and
Speaker 1: the Chinese are going to do things like use a
Speaker 1: nuclear tach nuke first. You know, they're going to use
Speaker 1: their hypersonic missile systems or cruise missile systems. Um. What
Speaker 1: we've what we're learning from the Chinese is that they've
Speaker 1: learned from us from Desert Storm that in order to
Speaker 1: win these wars, you have to, you know, punch hard
Speaker 1: first the first time, make it so bloody that the
Speaker 1: enemy doesn't want to respond. Here, I'm just so surprised.
Speaker 1: It's so quick. It's happening so fast. Um. In that,
Speaker 1: you know, the Chinese of traditionally played the long game.
Speaker 1: We we expect them. For example, they want to have
Speaker 1: this let's say blue water world class navy by you know,
Speaker 1: that's still twenty years from now. They're working towards that
Speaker 1: takes basically a generation to do that. They have the technology,
Speaker 1: they have the equipment. Um, to me, it looks like
Speaker 1: they're speeding up that timeline and this is one good
Speaker 1: example of it. So what are they after by doing
Speaker 1: something disagregious? What's next? Well, it's all about protecting power
Speaker 1: in the South China, see, and how they anticipate this
Speaker 1: would go. Um, how they want to be the penultimate
Speaker 1: power there in that part of the world. Um, they're
Speaker 1: you know, claiming the responsibility of the United States, Australia, Japan,
Speaker 1: South Korea, if you know, that's kind of the Allies
Speaker 1: system right now that's going to have to push back
Speaker 1: against the Chinese. Talking to another analysts over the weekend,
Speaker 1: then we were saying, okay, so let's working this out.
Speaker 1: What does the war with China look like? You guys
Speaker 1: and I have talked about that and where it would
Speaker 1: take place, and we're coming to realize that it likely
Speaker 1: takes place very similar to what we saw in the
Speaker 1: Second World War and this island hopping campaign as the
Speaker 1: Chinese look to gain and hold certain of these islands
Speaker 1: that are close to Taiwan. UM. But eventually they would
Speaker 1: try to unfortunately use kind of amphibious operation to take
Speaker 1: over the island itself. Now, they'd likely destroy it. There'd
Speaker 1: be a lot of death and destruction. Um, And I
Speaker 1: think the Chinese are threatening our allies on ourselves, saying,
Speaker 1: don't even think up doing anything because the price you're
Speaker 1: gonna pay will be an aircraft carrier. We're gonna sink
Speaker 1: aircraft Carry're gonna sink two aircraft carriers. In fact, if
Speaker 1: you've got two there in the region right now, we've
Speaker 1: got a couple of there in the US. I think
Speaker 1: the Vincent's there and the role Reagan's there right now,
Speaker 1: a couple of destroyers protecting it as well. Um, they're
Speaker 1: gonna go right after that, and they're not going to hesitate.
Speaker 1: It's I don't know how likely it is, but if
Speaker 1: they wanted to, Um, they could change the balance of
Speaker 1: power on the planet, like in a day, right. I mean,
Speaker 1: they attacked Taiwan, if we don't react, and Japan says, well,
Speaker 1: the United States didn't come to their defense, so I
Speaker 1: guess work on out of luck. And then just a
Speaker 1: whole bunch of people decide, Okay, the United States is
Speaker 1: not the policeman of the world. Are gonna fix everything everywhere.
Speaker 1: So we need to figure out how to deal with China,
Speaker 1: and things would change like really really fast, wouldn't they Right,
Speaker 1: And just look at so look at Afghanistan taught our
Speaker 1: allies that when we don't put America first, when we
Speaker 1: decide that, you know what, we're not going to really
Speaker 1: defend you, guys are out of here. Look what happens.
Speaker 1: And and versus if you're an ally of the Chinese,
Speaker 1: you know they like the fact that they put China
Speaker 1: first because that means they know they're always going to
Speaker 1: back them up. Well, that's that's what's happening right now, Like,
Speaker 1: that's that's what this test is to them because they
Speaker 1: absolutely can. And again, this is a country that would
Speaker 1: use a low level nuclear capable weapon in the beginning
Speaker 1: of the fight. It would escalate immediately right to that.
Speaker 1: Now does it get to, you know, intercontinental blistic missiles.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure we would do that, we would trade
Speaker 1: city for city or anything like that. But but they're
Speaker 1: gonna do whatever they can to project this level of
Speaker 1: power given what's you know, given what their plan is,
Speaker 1: their belt and roads and suspenders, and that that that
Speaker 1: initiative that is taking place throughout throughout Asia. You know,
Speaker 1: they want to be the world dominant power. This is
Speaker 1: their century and this is how they think they have
Speaker 1: to do it. And um we're sitting there, you know,
Speaker 1: are they ten feet tall? What they look like? You
Speaker 1: know they're they're not. There might be ten feet tall,
Speaker 1: but there's six feet in the rowing. So we're going
Speaker 1: to have to deal with this. Um, I think sooner
Speaker 1: than later. Mike clients military analysts down the line. Mike,
Speaker 1: you mentioned our aircraft carriers as a friend and relative
Speaker 1: of various naval and marine personnel and and somebody who's
Speaker 1: been proud of our amazing aircraft carriers since w W two.
Speaker 1: Can we defend them anymore? Well, that's a great question.
Speaker 1: And given their hypersonic missile capability over surface to land
Speaker 1: missiles that they have that they built on in those
Speaker 1: South China, see, I don't know. You know, they're going
Speaker 1: to change how warfare goes. Um. I just I'm on
Speaker 1: a conference right now at the Modern War Institute and
Speaker 1: just sort of very telling comment made by a guy
Speaker 1: that said, you know we've got we've been a wrong
Speaker 1: in predicting the next fight. Well, you know the next
Speaker 1: fight we know it's going to involve cyber we next
Speaker 1: we know the next fight is going to involve technology.
Speaker 1: But I think the next fight involves this swarm technology
Speaker 1: where drones and the like are just going to be
Speaker 1: robots are being thrown out our our systems that are
Speaker 1: manned by people, And you know, you can't defend against
Speaker 1: two thousand things coming at you no matter what how
Speaker 1: great the aircraft carror is and how many stroyers you
Speaker 1: have around it to protect it. So I think that's
Speaker 1: what the Chinese are gonna do, and we've got to
Speaker 1: figure out a way to shut that down, maybe E
Speaker 1: M P. Other other different weapons systems that that quite
Speaker 1: frankly we're behind in right now that the Chinese have
Speaker 1: the leading hypersonic missiles and drone clouds. Good lord, I'm
Speaker 1: not going to be able to sleep tonight. Yeah well yeah,
Speaker 1: maybe I guess this is what you know, kind of
Speaker 1: we do as the analysts. I We're always looking at
Speaker 1: what the capabilities are, and we've got to make sure
Speaker 1: that we have the capability to defend, and we also
Speaker 1: recognize whether it's a weakness to kind of kind of
Speaker 1: run it through. Um, the Chinese could make a tremendous
Speaker 1: mistake if they don't get it right the first time.
Speaker 1: Here's what the Chinese don't have, whether we like it
Speaker 1: or not. The US has been you know, bloodied. We
Speaker 1: have got experienced military. You know, we've been the war
Speaker 1: the past twenty years, so we kind of know how
Speaker 1: to do this. The Chinese haven't shot at anybody since
Speaker 1: nineteen seventy nine. So the question is if they do
Speaker 1: get in some kind of land battle or some big conflict. Um,
Speaker 1: I think I have the guts to pull the trigger,
Speaker 1: and I think that's it remains to be saying. So
Speaker 1: how much does that matter that we have you know,
Speaker 1: recent actual military experience and they don't we personally, I
Speaker 1: think it matters a lot um again because when you uh,
Speaker 1: it's a function of how well they're going to do
Speaker 1: once the shooting starts. Like like what I found in
Speaker 1: combat was once our soldiers saw the confidence that they
Speaker 1: had in their equipment and the fact that it was
Speaker 1: no match, it created a sense of invincibility around our units.
Speaker 1: And I'm sure the pilots feel the same way, and
Speaker 1: I know the sailors feel the same way. That doesn't matter,
Speaker 1: We're going to be fine in this situation. The Chinese
Speaker 1: have yet to prove that out whether or not their
Speaker 1: their investment is gonna take do that for them from
Speaker 1: a cultural perspective, and they recognize the culture is an
Speaker 1: important part of this because again the p l A,
Speaker 1: the whole the whole army thing is still kind of
Speaker 1: new for them. They're they're invested money in their officers.
Speaker 1: The leader of China, for example, doesn't even trust a
Speaker 1: lot of his general officers because a lot of that
Speaker 1: has been brought and paid. So they have the traditional
Speaker 1: problems of those those armies that kind of getting you know,
Speaker 1: brought up from the from the root cause. But now
Speaker 1: they're going to go actually fight. The question is whether
Speaker 1: they'll actually fight. You know, what, what what are you fight for?
Speaker 1: I know, I know when we're in our units, you know,
Speaker 1: we fight for each other. The question is whether those
Speaker 1: Chinese p l A and army units will do the
Speaker 1: same for each other. Well, and I've been told by
Speaker 1: somebody who studies this thing, in whose opinion I trust,
Speaker 1: that just culturally and historically, we have a tradition of um,
Speaker 1: you know the intent of your commander, they tell you
Speaker 1: what we're trying to accomplish. Then if um, if it
Speaker 1: turns out we need to improvise and do something different
Speaker 1: or in a different way. Our people are empowered to
Speaker 1: do that, as opposed to a lot of Asian cultures,
Speaker 1: including Japan, which has struggled with this. It's very very
Speaker 1: much top down and you dare not dishonored, dishonor your commander. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm not sure that same level of dishonors in the
Speaker 1: Chinese military, as they've tried to fight against that, and
Speaker 1: again we won't know until the bullets start flying. I
Speaker 1: guess in some level. We definitely saw that in the
Speaker 1: Japanese military, especially during World War Two, and how they
Speaker 1: felt UM. I think that they recognize cultures an issue.
Speaker 1: If you look at their advertisements, if you look at
Speaker 1: what they're trying to do, they're they're trying to power
Speaker 1: down UM and focus on n c o s and the
Speaker 1: the noncommissioned officers that actually run the battles there. Uh.
Speaker 1: But but it takes it takes generation, and they're going
Speaker 1: to have to get you into something. So I wouldn't
Speaker 1: be surprised if you saw the Chinese deploy certain units
Speaker 1: into certain places in the world to try to get
Speaker 1: some combat experience as proxy forces to to their units
Speaker 1: so they can kind of come back and tell the
Speaker 1: story and recognize what their shortcomings are going to be
Speaker 1: and where they're gonna have to overcome if they get
Speaker 1: into if we get into this great land power mass
Speaker 1: battle that could take place on those islands within the
Speaker 1: South Chines. See so many interesting points. Mike Lion's military
Speaker 1: analysts Mike, we truly appreciate it, guys, thanks for having me.
Speaker 1: You can you can't get that perspective from anybody else,
Speaker 1: so good. The last bit about China, look for them
Speaker 1: to send their forces as proxies the various regions of
Speaker 1: the world to get a little combat experience. Well now
Speaker 1: I know what to look for. So over a hundred
Speaker 1: military aircraft flew into Taiwan space, eighty fighter jets, four bombers,
Speaker 1: five anti subplanes for early warning aircraft. Man, that is provocative,
Speaker 1: and that thing about you know, we've got experience and
Speaker 1: they don't. All the sports metaphors that that exists there,
Speaker 1: you know, they've got experience. The new up starts, can
Speaker 1: they handle the pressure? Well, sometimes you can't, and the
Speaker 1: people with experience win. But sometimes the young upstarts who
Speaker 1: have never been there. They win if they have enough
Speaker 1: talent slash firepower in that place. Yeah, yeah, man. It's
Speaker 1: just I know I've been talking about this for years,
Speaker 1: but I just I just feel like there's so much
Speaker 1: of our culture, so much of our population don't doesn't
Speaker 1: think this is possible. There's no way great powers are
Speaker 1: going to go to war the same thing they thought
Speaker 1: in nineteen fourteen before August. Real wars are in history
Speaker 1: right right. There's no way China would actually use a
Speaker 1: technical nuke to take Taiwan. They could do that this
Speaker 1: afternoon and change world history forever. And we got a
Speaker 1: giant decision to make on whether or not we fight
Speaker 1: back or just saying, okay, you have it, We're not
Speaker 1: going to blow up half the world over this, and
Speaker 1: then all of a sudden, Japan's got inside. Okay, I
Speaker 1: guess we gotta deal with China because they control all
Speaker 1: the commerce in the ocean over here now in the
Speaker 1: United States doesn't, we don't, China does. And if we
Speaker 1: won't even be a country and have anything, oil, food, anything,
Speaker 1: we gotta deal with China because they're now the big
Speaker 1: dog over here. In Australia might go along who knows.
Speaker 1: I mean things. Actually listen to a podcast about this yesterday,
Speaker 1: but things things to topple. Dominoes topple very quickly. If
Speaker 1: the world decides, oh to the United States is not going,
Speaker 1: then Taiwan okay, right, well, and I have a feeling
Speaker 1: are babbling. Great Grandpa President would just take it to
Speaker 1: the U N and hold a debate. That's some interesting stuff.
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