WEBVTT - Clearly a Threat.  Mike Lyons Talks to Armstrong & Getty

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<v Speaker 1>From the Abraham Lincoln Radio Studio at the George Washington

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<v Speaker 1>Broadcast Center. Armstrong and Show Jetty Armstrong and Jetti show

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<v Speaker 1>an aerial show of force from the Chinese military, the

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<v Speaker 1>largest incursion ever inside Taiwan's air defense zone fifty six

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<v Speaker 1>planes nearly one fifty flights since Chinese National Day Friday.

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<v Speaker 1>China use Taiwan as a breakaway profits and Chinese President

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<v Speaker 1>Chi Jianping has pledged to bring the island under Chinese

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<v Speaker 1>Communist Party control. He said time and time again, we're

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<v Speaker 1>going to resolve this issue with Taiwan. If it has

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<v Speaker 1>to be by force, it will be by force. And

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<v Speaker 1>we're not going to pass this problem once in the

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<v Speaker 1>next generation. Yeah, So, China has been flying a warplanes

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<v Speaker 1>in the Taiwan's air defense space in the last couple

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<v Speaker 1>of days. As you heard, there over a hundred military

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<v Speaker 1>aircraft have flown near Taiwan. That's between Friday and Sunday,

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<v Speaker 1>including eighty fighter jets, four bombers, five anti subplanes, and

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<v Speaker 1>four early warning aircraft. That seems fairly provocative. The question

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<v Speaker 1>is what is China up to. We have a number

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<v Speaker 1>of questions and Mike Lions military analysts joins US. Mike

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<v Speaker 1>served with various military organizations both the United States and

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<v Speaker 1>Europe throughout his career. Mike, welcome, how are you guys.

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<v Speaker 1>So great to be back with you. Thank you. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it's always a pleasure. So I just have a very

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<v Speaker 1>basic question. What's an air defense space. I assume that's

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<v Speaker 1>different than their national airspace, right, it's twelve miles outside

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<v Speaker 1>the border of where the land hits. And so each

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<v Speaker 1>country has an area through international law that says they

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<v Speaker 1>own space twelve miles outside where the land starts. And

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<v Speaker 1>so when you get outside, you know, inside of that,

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<v Speaker 1>you're allowed to defend your land space. Um, and so

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<v Speaker 1>missile systems have got at least go to that place.

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<v Speaker 1>And so now once the Chinese violate that, there in

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<v Speaker 1>theory violating the sovereignty of that country in this state, Taiwan.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's very much like putting your finger an inch

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<v Speaker 1>from somebody's nose. You haven't touched them, but the incursion

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<v Speaker 1>is absolutely intentional, right, And this is different than the

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<v Speaker 1>kind of the classic Cold War ones where Russia would

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<v Speaker 1>do this to the United States. They would you know,

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<v Speaker 1>kind of come out just to the edge of our

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<v Speaker 1>of our that space there, and we would see it

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<v Speaker 1>was designed to see how fast we would have learned

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<v Speaker 1>and to deploy aircraft to respond. So we looked at

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<v Speaker 1>that as just them testing us to see how we

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<v Speaker 1>would respond. Here this is different because you know, when

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<v Speaker 1>you send a hundred and fifty planes into this area,

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<v Speaker 1>you're not you can't respond. There's there's you can only

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<v Speaker 1>do so much. This is about. This is a threat.

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<v Speaker 1>There's no question about that. This is clearly a threat

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<v Speaker 1>to to Taiwan and the Chinese states in response to

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<v Speaker 1>our naval exercises that are taking place in Oakland now.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's a couple of you know, island zones up

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<v Speaker 1>to the north. But again, what's happening here is something

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<v Speaker 1>we just really haven't seen the Chinese doing a long time. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>So I just want to make sure I understand this.

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<v Speaker 1>So it sounds it seems to me. It sounds to

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<v Speaker 1>me like so they got it. They had enough badass

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<v Speaker 1>aircraft flying close enough to Taiwan that if they have

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<v Speaker 1>wanted to do something, they have done it and it

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<v Speaker 1>would have been too late for any US or anybody

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<v Speaker 1>to stop it. Oh, no question. I mean that we

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<v Speaker 1>don't have that kind of capability on the island itself.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, Taiwan has some basic air defense platforms, surface

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<v Speaker 1>to air missile systems, but nothing that can take out

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<v Speaker 1>what they put over there. I mean, if those the

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<v Speaker 1>H six bombers, for example, they're nuclear capable, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>they open their their doors drop bombs on Taiwan, it's uh,

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<v Speaker 1>it's over. I mean there's in this, you know, and

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<v Speaker 1>the Chinese are going to do things like use a

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<v Speaker 1>nuclear tach nuke first. You know, they're going to use

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<v Speaker 1>their hypersonic missile systems or cruise missile systems. Um. What

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<v Speaker 1>we've what we're learning from the Chinese is that they've

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<v Speaker 1>learned from us from Desert Storm that in order to

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<v Speaker 1>win these wars, you have to, you know, punch hard

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<v Speaker 1>first the first time, make it so bloody that the

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<v Speaker 1>enemy doesn't want to respond. Here, I'm just so surprised.

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<v Speaker 1>It's so quick. It's happening so fast. Um. In that,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the Chinese of traditionally played the long game.

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<v Speaker 1>We we expect them. For example, they want to have

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<v Speaker 1>this let's say blue water world class navy by you know,

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<v Speaker 1>that's still twenty years from now. They're working towards that

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<v Speaker 1>takes basically a generation to do that. They have the technology,

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<v Speaker 1>they have the equipment. Um, to me, it looks like

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<v Speaker 1>they're speeding up that timeline and this is one good

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<v Speaker 1>example of it. So what are they after by doing

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<v Speaker 1>something disagregious? What's next? Well, it's all about protecting power

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<v Speaker 1>in the South China, see, and how they anticipate this

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<v Speaker 1>would go. Um, how they want to be the penultimate

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<v Speaker 1>power there in that part of the world. Um, they're

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<v Speaker 1>you know, claiming the responsibility of the United States, Australia, Japan,

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<v Speaker 1>South Korea, if you know, that's kind of the Allies

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<v Speaker 1>system right now that's going to have to push back

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<v Speaker 1>against the Chinese. Talking to another analysts over the weekend,

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<v Speaker 1>then we were saying, okay, so let's working this out.

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<v Speaker 1>What does the war with China look like? You guys

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<v Speaker 1>and I have talked about that and where it would

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<v Speaker 1>take place, and we're coming to realize that it likely

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<v Speaker 1>takes place very similar to what we saw in the

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<v Speaker 1>Second World War and this island hopping campaign as the

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<v Speaker 1>Chinese look to gain and hold certain of these islands

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<v Speaker 1>that are close to Taiwan. UM. But eventually they would

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<v Speaker 1>try to unfortunately use kind of amphibious operation to take

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<v Speaker 1>over the island itself. Now, they'd likely destroy it. There'd

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<v Speaker 1>be a lot of death and destruction. Um, And I

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<v Speaker 1>think the Chinese are threatening our allies on ourselves, saying,

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<v Speaker 1>don't even think up doing anything because the price you're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna pay will be an aircraft carrier. We're gonna sink

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<v Speaker 1>aircraft Carry're gonna sink two aircraft carriers. In fact, if

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<v Speaker 1>you've got two there in the region right now, we've

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<v Speaker 1>got a couple of there in the US. I think

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<v Speaker 1>the Vincent's there and the role Reagan's there right now,

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<v Speaker 1>a couple of destroyers protecting it as well. Um, they're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna go right after that, and they're not going to hesitate.

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<v Speaker 1>It's I don't know how likely it is, but if

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<v Speaker 1>they wanted to, Um, they could change the balance of

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<v Speaker 1>power on the planet, like in a day, right. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>they attacked Taiwan, if we don't react, and Japan says, well,

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<v Speaker 1>the United States didn't come to their defense, so I

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<v Speaker 1>guess work on out of luck. And then just a

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<v Speaker 1>whole bunch of people decide, Okay, the United States is

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<v Speaker 1>not the policeman of the world. Are gonna fix everything everywhere.

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<v Speaker 1>So we need to figure out how to deal with China,

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<v Speaker 1>and things would change like really really fast, wouldn't they Right,

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<v Speaker 1>And just look at so look at Afghanistan taught our

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<v Speaker 1>allies that when we don't put America first, when we

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<v Speaker 1>decide that, you know what, we're not going to really

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<v Speaker 1>defend you, guys are out of here. Look what happens.

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<v Speaker 1>And and versus if you're an ally of the Chinese,

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<v Speaker 1>you know they like the fact that they put China

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<v Speaker 1>first because that means they know they're always going to

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<v Speaker 1>back them up. Well, that's that's what's happening right now, Like,

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<v Speaker 1>that's that's what this test is to them because they

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<v Speaker 1>absolutely can. And again, this is a country that would

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<v Speaker 1>use a low level nuclear capable weapon in the beginning

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<v Speaker 1>of the fight. It would escalate immediately right to that.

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<v Speaker 1>Now does it get to, you know, intercontinental blistic missiles.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not sure we would do that, we would trade

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<v Speaker 1>city for city or anything like that. But but they're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna do whatever they can to project this level of

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<v Speaker 1>power given what's you know, given what their plan is,

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<v Speaker 1>their belt and roads and suspenders, and that that that

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<v Speaker 1>initiative that is taking place throughout throughout Asia. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>they want to be the world dominant power. This is

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<v Speaker 1>their century and this is how they think they have

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<v Speaker 1>to do it. And um we're sitting there, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>are they ten feet tall? What they look like? You

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<v Speaker 1>know they're they're not. There might be ten feet tall,

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<v Speaker 1>but there's six feet in the rowing. So we're going

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<v Speaker 1>to have to deal with this. Um, I think sooner

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<v Speaker 1>than later. Mike clients military analysts down the line. Mike,

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<v Speaker 1>you mentioned our aircraft carriers as a friend and relative

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<v Speaker 1>of various naval and marine personnel and and somebody who's

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<v Speaker 1>been proud of our amazing aircraft carriers since w W two.

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<v Speaker 1>Can we defend them anymore? Well, that's a great question.

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<v Speaker 1>And given their hypersonic missile capability over surface to land

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<v Speaker 1>missiles that they have that they built on in those

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<v Speaker 1>South China, see, I don't know. You know, they're going

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<v Speaker 1>to change how warfare goes. Um. I just I'm on

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<v Speaker 1>a conference right now at the Modern War Institute and

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<v Speaker 1>just sort of very telling comment made by a guy

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<v Speaker 1>that said, you know we've got we've been a wrong

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<v Speaker 1>in predicting the next fight. Well, you know the next

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<v Speaker 1>fight we know it's going to involve cyber we next

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<v Speaker 1>we know the next fight is going to involve technology.

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<v Speaker 1>But I think the next fight involves this swarm technology

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<v Speaker 1>where drones and the like are just going to be

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<v Speaker 1>robots are being thrown out our our systems that are

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<v Speaker 1>manned by people, And you know, you can't defend against

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand things coming at you no matter what how

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<v Speaker 1>great the aircraft carror is and how many stroyers you

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<v Speaker 1>have around it to protect it. So I think that's

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<v Speaker 1>what the Chinese are gonna do, and we've got to

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<v Speaker 1>figure out a way to shut that down, maybe E

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<v Speaker 1>M P. Other other different weapons systems that that quite

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<v Speaker 1>frankly we're behind in right now that the Chinese have

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<v Speaker 1>the leading hypersonic missiles and drone clouds. Good lord, I'm

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<v Speaker 1>not going to be able to sleep tonight. Yeah well yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe I guess this is what you know, kind of

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<v Speaker 1>we do as the analysts. I We're always looking at

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<v Speaker 1>what the capabilities are, and we've got to make sure

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<v Speaker 1>that we have the capability to defend, and we also

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<v Speaker 1>recognize whether it's a weakness to kind of kind of

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<v Speaker 1>run it through. Um, the Chinese could make a tremendous

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<v Speaker 1>mistake if they don't get it right the first time.

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<v Speaker 1>Here's what the Chinese don't have, whether we like it

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<v Speaker 1>or not. The US has been you know, bloodied. We

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<v Speaker 1>have got experienced military. You know, we've been the war

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<v Speaker 1>the past twenty years, so we kind of know how

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<v Speaker 1>to do this. The Chinese haven't shot at anybody since

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen seventy nine. So the question is if they do

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<v Speaker 1>get in some kind of land battle or some big conflict. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>I think I have the guts to pull the trigger,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think that's it remains to be saying. So

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<v Speaker 1>how much does that matter that we have you know,

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<v Speaker 1>recent actual military experience and they don't we personally, I

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<v Speaker 1>think it matters a lot um again because when you uh,

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<v Speaker 1>it's a function of how well they're going to do

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<v Speaker 1>once the shooting starts. Like like what I found in

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<v Speaker 1>combat was once our soldiers saw the confidence that they

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<v Speaker 1>had in their equipment and the fact that it was

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<v Speaker 1>no match, it created a sense of invincibility around our units.

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<v Speaker 1>And I'm sure the pilots feel the same way, and

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<v Speaker 1>I know the sailors feel the same way. That doesn't matter,

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<v Speaker 1>We're going to be fine in this situation. The Chinese

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<v Speaker 1>have yet to prove that out whether or not their

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<v Speaker 1>their investment is gonna take do that for them from

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<v Speaker 1>a cultural perspective, and they recognize the culture is an

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<v Speaker 1>important part of this because again the p l A,

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<v Speaker 1>the whole the whole army thing is still kind of

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<v Speaker 1>new for them. They're they're invested money in their officers.

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<v Speaker 1>The leader of China, for example, doesn't even trust a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of his general officers because a lot of that

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<v Speaker 1>has been brought and paid. So they have the traditional

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<v Speaker 1>problems of those those armies that kind of getting you know,

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<v Speaker 1>brought up from the from the root cause. But now

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<v Speaker 1>they're going to go actually fight. The question is whether

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<v Speaker 1>they'll actually fight. You know, what, what what are you fight for?

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<v Speaker 1>I know, I know when we're in our units, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we fight for each other. The question is whether those

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<v Speaker 1>Chinese p l A and army units will do the

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<v Speaker 1>same for each other. Well, and I've been told by

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<v Speaker 1>somebody who studies this thing, in whose opinion I trust,

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<v Speaker 1>that just culturally and historically, we have a tradition of um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know the intent of your commander, they tell you

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<v Speaker 1>what we're trying to accomplish. Then if um, if it

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<v Speaker 1>turns out we need to improvise and do something different

0:10:32.559 --> 0:10:35.840
<v Speaker 1>or in a different way. Our people are empowered to

0:10:36.000 --> 0:10:38.520
<v Speaker 1>do that, as opposed to a lot of Asian cultures,

0:10:38.520 --> 0:10:41.199
<v Speaker 1>including Japan, which has struggled with this. It's very very

0:10:41.240 --> 0:10:45.320
<v Speaker 1>much top down and you dare not dishonored, dishonor your commander. Yeah,

0:10:45.360 --> 0:10:47.960
<v Speaker 1>I'm not sure that same level of dishonors in the

0:10:48.040 --> 0:10:51.240
<v Speaker 1>Chinese military, as they've tried to fight against that, and

0:10:51.280 --> 0:10:53.959
<v Speaker 1>again we won't know until the bullets start flying. I

0:10:54.000 --> 0:10:56.280
<v Speaker 1>guess in some level. We definitely saw that in the

0:10:56.360 --> 0:10:59.600
<v Speaker 1>Japanese military, especially during World War Two, and how they

0:10:59.640 --> 0:11:03.160
<v Speaker 1>felt UM. I think that they recognize cultures an issue.

0:11:03.280 --> 0:11:05.040
<v Speaker 1>If you look at their advertisements, if you look at

0:11:05.040 --> 0:11:06.720
<v Speaker 1>what they're trying to do, they're they're trying to power

0:11:06.760 --> 0:11:09.760
<v Speaker 1>down UM and focus on n c o s and the

0:11:09.720 --> 0:11:12.600
<v Speaker 1>the noncommissioned officers that actually run the battles there. Uh.

0:11:12.840 --> 0:11:15.400
<v Speaker 1>But but it takes it takes generation, and they're going

0:11:15.440 --> 0:11:17.240
<v Speaker 1>to have to get you into something. So I wouldn't

0:11:17.240 --> 0:11:20.480
<v Speaker 1>be surprised if you saw the Chinese deploy certain units

0:11:20.480 --> 0:11:22.319
<v Speaker 1>into certain places in the world to try to get

0:11:22.320 --> 0:11:26.640
<v Speaker 1>some combat experience as proxy forces to to their units

0:11:26.679 --> 0:11:28.200
<v Speaker 1>so they can kind of come back and tell the

0:11:28.240 --> 0:11:30.400
<v Speaker 1>story and recognize what their shortcomings are going to be

0:11:30.400 --> 0:11:32.439
<v Speaker 1>and where they're gonna have to overcome if they get

0:11:32.480 --> 0:11:35.120
<v Speaker 1>into if we get into this great land power mass

0:11:35.280 --> 0:11:37.640
<v Speaker 1>battle that could take place on those islands within the

0:11:37.679 --> 0:11:41.319
<v Speaker 1>South Chines. See so many interesting points. Mike Lion's military

0:11:41.320 --> 0:11:44.840
<v Speaker 1>analysts Mike, we truly appreciate it, guys, thanks for having me.

0:11:45.400 --> 0:11:48.400
<v Speaker 1>You can you can't get that perspective from anybody else,

0:11:48.960 --> 0:11:53.040
<v Speaker 1>so good. The last bit about China, look for them

0:11:53.040 --> 0:11:56.240
<v Speaker 1>to send their forces as proxies the various regions of

0:11:56.240 --> 0:11:58.520
<v Speaker 1>the world to get a little combat experience. Well now

0:11:58.520 --> 0:12:01.000
<v Speaker 1>I know what to look for. So over a hundred

0:12:01.000 --> 0:12:07.040
<v Speaker 1>military aircraft flew into Taiwan space, eighty fighter jets, four bombers,

0:12:07.080 --> 0:12:11.760
<v Speaker 1>five anti subplanes for early warning aircraft. Man, that is provocative,

0:12:12.360 --> 0:12:14.679
<v Speaker 1>and that thing about you know, we've got experience and

0:12:14.720 --> 0:12:17.839
<v Speaker 1>they don't. All the sports metaphors that that exists there,

0:12:18.360 --> 0:12:20.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, they've got experience. The new up starts, can

0:12:20.840 --> 0:12:24.200
<v Speaker 1>they handle the pressure? Well, sometimes you can't, and the

0:12:24.200 --> 0:12:26.760
<v Speaker 1>people with experience win. But sometimes the young upstarts who

0:12:26.800 --> 0:12:31.160
<v Speaker 1>have never been there. They win if they have enough

0:12:31.160 --> 0:12:35.679
<v Speaker 1>talent slash firepower in that place. Yeah, yeah, man. It's

0:12:35.720 --> 0:12:38.720
<v Speaker 1>just I know I've been talking about this for years,

0:12:39.400 --> 0:12:41.440
<v Speaker 1>but I just I just feel like there's so much

0:12:41.440 --> 0:12:44.000
<v Speaker 1>of our culture, so much of our population don't doesn't

0:12:44.040 --> 0:12:47.880
<v Speaker 1>think this is possible. There's no way great powers are

0:12:47.880 --> 0:12:49.960
<v Speaker 1>going to go to war the same thing they thought

0:12:50.000 --> 0:12:54.320
<v Speaker 1>in nineteen fourteen before August. Real wars are in history

0:12:54.559 --> 0:12:57.920
<v Speaker 1>right right. There's no way China would actually use a

0:12:58.520 --> 0:13:02.280
<v Speaker 1>technical nuke to take Taiwan. They could do that this

0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:06.240
<v Speaker 1>afternoon and change world history forever. And we got a

0:13:06.280 --> 0:13:08.440
<v Speaker 1>giant decision to make on whether or not we fight

0:13:08.480 --> 0:13:10.280
<v Speaker 1>back or just saying, okay, you have it, We're not

0:13:10.280 --> 0:13:11.920
<v Speaker 1>going to blow up half the world over this, and

0:13:11.960 --> 0:13:13.840
<v Speaker 1>then all of a sudden, Japan's got inside. Okay, I

0:13:13.840 --> 0:13:16.000
<v Speaker 1>guess we gotta deal with China because they control all

0:13:16.000 --> 0:13:18.599
<v Speaker 1>the commerce in the ocean over here now in the

0:13:18.679 --> 0:13:20.960
<v Speaker 1>United States doesn't, we don't, China does. And if we

0:13:21.000 --> 0:13:23.880
<v Speaker 1>won't even be a country and have anything, oil, food, anything,

0:13:23.920 --> 0:13:25.960
<v Speaker 1>we gotta deal with China because they're now the big

0:13:26.000 --> 0:13:28.680
<v Speaker 1>dog over here. In Australia might go along who knows.

0:13:28.760 --> 0:13:31.560
<v Speaker 1>I mean things. Actually listen to a podcast about this yesterday,

0:13:32.000 --> 0:13:36.120
<v Speaker 1>but things things to topple. Dominoes topple very quickly. If

0:13:36.160 --> 0:13:39.400
<v Speaker 1>the world decides, oh to the United States is not going,

0:13:39.480 --> 0:13:42.600
<v Speaker 1>then Taiwan okay, right, well, and I have a feeling

0:13:42.600 --> 0:13:45.880
<v Speaker 1>are babbling. Great Grandpa President would just take it to

0:13:45.920 --> 0:13:50.520
<v Speaker 1>the U N and hold a debate. That's some interesting stuff.

0:13:50.559 --> 0:13:52.800
<v Speaker 1>Text line four one, five two nine five k f

0:13:52.880 --> 0:13:53.120
<v Speaker 1>TC