1 00:00:04,880 --> 00:00:08,239 Speaker 1: On this episode of News World. I am delighted to 2 00:00:08,280 --> 00:00:11,120 Speaker 1: be talking with a good friend, somebody who's been educating 3 00:00:11,119 --> 00:00:15,400 Speaker 1: me out for I think twenty years, doctor Nicholas Everstet, 4 00:00:15,680 --> 00:00:19,200 Speaker 1: the Henry Went Chair and Political Economy at the American 5 00:00:19,360 --> 00:00:24,000 Speaker 1: Enterprise Institute. He's the author of several books, including Men 6 00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:28,040 Speaker 1: Without Work post Pandemic Edition, which is the updated version 7 00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:33,159 Speaker 1: of his landmark twenty sixteen study Men Without Work, and 8 00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:36,880 Speaker 1: he's out with a new book now, America's Human Arithmetic 9 00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 1: Essential Essays from Nicholas Everstett. And I have to say, 10 00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:45,640 Speaker 1: I do not remember ever having a conversation with Nicholas 11 00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 1: that I didn't walk away with a whole range of 12 00:00:48,720 --> 00:01:02,680 Speaker 1: new ideas. I'm thrilled, Nicholas you're joining me. 13 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 2: Thanks so much for inviting me. 14 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:08,360 Speaker 1: Before we get into this, we never really had this discussion. 15 00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:13,640 Speaker 1: How did you get into your fascination with quantitative data 16 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:15,759 Speaker 1: and with what it tells you about the world. 17 00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:18,800 Speaker 2: I just kind of stumbled into it, like all the 18 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:22,440 Speaker 2: other great things that happened in my life. I started 19 00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:27,360 Speaker 2: out first day of college, first class in college, taking 20 00:01:27,440 --> 00:01:32,200 Speaker 2: a course on population, resources and environment, and I thought 21 00:01:32,280 --> 00:01:35,360 Speaker 2: that stuff was fascinating and so I got a bug 22 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 2: and I've never been able to shake the habit. 23 00:01:37,640 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 1: Do you find occasionally the numbers sort of surprise you, 24 00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:45,080 Speaker 1: that they lead you to conclusions you would never have 25 00:01:45,160 --> 00:01:45,960 Speaker 1: reached otherwise. 26 00:01:46,440 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 2: Oh no, I mean that's what's the fun of it 27 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 2: is that it's full of surprises. They're all of these 28 00:01:52,760 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 2: amazing things, some of them not so pleasant to contemplate, 29 00:01:57,000 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 2: that are hiding in plain sight. These things are evolving 30 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 2: in some sort of way, quietly so that they aren't 31 00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:08,600 Speaker 2: biting people, but they're changing our lives. I mean, we 32 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:12,560 Speaker 2: see an asteroid strike, we feel a pandemic, But they're 33 00:02:12,600 --> 00:02:15,920 Speaker 2: all sorts of trends that are affecting our lives in 34 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:20,240 Speaker 2: important ways that are kind of quiet, and somehow they 35 00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:21,320 Speaker 2: escape us. 36 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:24,120 Speaker 1: There's a point that Peter Drucker made maybe a half 37 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:26,720 Speaker 1: century ago that with a lot of these kind of 38 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:31,239 Speaker 1: demographic studies, you really do know for the next thirty 39 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:35,320 Speaker 1: forty to fifty years because you see the population you 40 00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 1: have and you know about what it's going to go through. 41 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:44,280 Speaker 2: That's exactly right when you try to do a forecast 42 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:47,640 Speaker 2: of what the political future is like in twenty five years, 43 00:02:47,919 --> 00:02:51,320 Speaker 2: I mt see, we know how well, economic long term 44 00:02:51,360 --> 00:02:55,640 Speaker 2: forecasts have worked, haven't helped us in trying to forecast technology. 45 00:02:56,120 --> 00:03:01,200 Speaker 2: But the secret source that demographers have is that the 46 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:04,920 Speaker 2: overwhelming majority of people who are already alive here today 47 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:09,360 Speaker 2: will be alive in ten, fifteen, twenty years. And so 48 00:03:10,040 --> 00:03:14,760 Speaker 2: you can just see what that profile looks like, compare 49 00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:17,840 Speaker 2: it to today, Connect the dots, and you've got some 50 00:03:18,560 --> 00:03:20,840 Speaker 2: pretty useful information there. Well. 51 00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:23,800 Speaker 1: And when you look at certain kinds of quantitative data, 52 00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:28,000 Speaker 1: suddenly you realize, for example, the impact of the Chinese 53 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:31,640 Speaker 1: one child policy, which had a totally different effect I 54 00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 1: think than anybody really had thought through in terms of 55 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:40,160 Speaker 1: having four adults now depending on a much smaller population 56 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 1: to take care of them. 57 00:03:41,600 --> 00:03:46,800 Speaker 2: Absolutely, in all social policies, as you know very well, 58 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:53,000 Speaker 2: have their intended outcomes and their unintended outcomes. And this 59 00:03:53,080 --> 00:03:59,280 Speaker 2: is the mother of all social policies, this terrible, ambitious 60 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:03,400 Speaker 2: decision to recast the family for what was the world's 61 00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:07,880 Speaker 2: largest population. So if it's the mother of all social policies, 62 00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:12,040 Speaker 2: it's going to have the mother of all unintended consequences, 63 00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:16,880 Speaker 2: and the Chinese people and the Chinese regime are having 64 00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:18,159 Speaker 2: to live with those now. 65 00:04:18,600 --> 00:04:21,880 Speaker 1: As I understand it, even though that was their official 66 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:26,520 Speaker 1: policy and they imposed it very ruthlessly. The actually largest 67 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:33,840 Speaker 1: drop in population patterns is Korea because Korean women apparently 68 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:35,119 Speaker 1: have decided they don't want the kids. 69 00:04:36,520 --> 00:04:39,680 Speaker 2: It's remarkable what's going on in South Korea right now. 70 00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:44,840 Speaker 2: Back in the nineteen nineties, I was studying Eastern Germany 71 00:04:45,040 --> 00:04:51,160 Speaker 2: right after the reunification, and my job dropped when I 72 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:56,040 Speaker 2: saw how low birth levels got in the initial shock, 73 00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:59,040 Speaker 2: because even though life was getting better in all sorts 74 00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:01,080 Speaker 2: of ways, it was a big transition for people. There 75 00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:05,640 Speaker 2: was a lot of anxiety. The birth level per woman 76 00:05:05,960 --> 00:05:11,360 Speaker 2: in South Korea today, under conditions of orderly progress, no unification, 77 00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:15,800 Speaker 2: no shocks, is lower than it was in Eastern Germany 78 00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:18,880 Speaker 2: at its lowest point. And if you go to South 79 00:05:18,960 --> 00:05:24,719 Speaker 2: Korea's capital, you're getting towards half a birth per woman 80 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:29,680 Speaker 2: per lifetime. If current levels persisted, you know that you 81 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:32,640 Speaker 2: need just over two births per woman per lifetime for 82 00:05:32,680 --> 00:05:36,159 Speaker 2: a population to be stable over time. So we're seeing 83 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:39,719 Speaker 2: changes all around the world. We're seeing a birth crash 84 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:43,680 Speaker 2: in country after country after country, and I'm afraid that 85 00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 2: the demographs haven't explained it very well. But it's going 86 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:50,120 Speaker 2: to be transforming our future very soon. 87 00:05:50,600 --> 00:05:54,480 Speaker 1: And Anxietner standard. It's mostly volitional that it's not because 88 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:58,400 Speaker 1: there's a virus or a problem. It's just across the 89 00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:00,919 Speaker 1: planet people are having fewer children. 90 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:05,599 Speaker 2: Yes, sir, you can imagine a future where estrogen in 91 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:09,919 Speaker 2: the water or microplastics or whatever would be a constraint 92 00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:15,280 Speaker 2: biologically on our ability to have children. But the evidence 93 00:06:15,320 --> 00:06:19,920 Speaker 2: so far is that there's an enormous shift in mentality, 94 00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:26,560 Speaker 2: an enormous shift in mindset that includes big changes in 95 00:06:26,760 --> 00:06:31,120 Speaker 2: desired childbearing. And it's not just in rich countries like 96 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:37,080 Speaker 2: USA or Switzerland or South Korea. It's in very very 97 00:06:37,200 --> 00:06:40,119 Speaker 2: poor countries, in places like Burma, Me and mar there's 98 00:06:40,160 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 2: been a birth crash and it doesn't seem to be 99 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:46,520 Speaker 2: because of nutrition. It's a worldwide mentality revolution. 100 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:53,839 Speaker 1: Maybe there's a profound shift in how women see themselves. 101 00:06:53,720 --> 00:06:56,360 Speaker 2: That has to have something to do with it. Knowing 102 00:06:56,440 --> 00:06:59,880 Speaker 2: that it's no longer necessary to live the way one's 103 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:04,359 Speaker 2: mother lived. There are all sorts of new options for people. 104 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:09,800 Speaker 2: I think that our little friend, the iPhone, which is 105 00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 2: now saturated almost all of the world, may be having 106 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:19,840 Speaker 2: as important the technological impact as the pill did two 107 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:25,200 Speaker 2: generations ago. I can't prove that yet, but the correspondence 108 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:31,640 Speaker 2: between cell phone saturation and accelerated drops in birth rates 109 00:07:31,720 --> 00:07:34,280 Speaker 2: all around the world, it's pretty thought provoking. 110 00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:38,560 Speaker 1: Well. It may also lead to a whole notion of 111 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:46,480 Speaker 1: electronic neighborhoods in which, for example, young influencers are particularly 112 00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:47,800 Speaker 1: excited about having six. 113 00:07:47,720 --> 00:07:51,040 Speaker 2: Kids again and again. In places where I go all 114 00:07:51,080 --> 00:07:54,320 Speaker 2: around the world, I see not just young people, but 115 00:07:54,400 --> 00:08:00,040 Speaker 2: certainly young people sitting on street corners gazing into their iPhone, 116 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:03,800 Speaker 2: and it's almost like a Narcissius mirror. It's almost like 117 00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:08,800 Speaker 2: you're kind of jumping through a mirror into another world, 118 00:08:08,880 --> 00:08:11,360 Speaker 2: which I kind of tend to think of as both 119 00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:15,240 Speaker 2: at one and the same time irresistible and inferior to 120 00:08:15,360 --> 00:08:16,960 Speaker 2: the real world that you're living. 121 00:08:16,720 --> 00:08:18,840 Speaker 1: In, but for some reason comfortable. 122 00:08:19,360 --> 00:08:25,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, irresistible and comfortable. There's certainly been a shift in 123 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:30,480 Speaker 2: thinking about children in this particular way. All around the world, 124 00:08:30,560 --> 00:08:36,800 Speaker 2: you see more interest in self actualization, in self fulfillment, 125 00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 2: in convenience in various ways. I mean, these are just 126 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:44,640 Speaker 2: revealed preferences. Now. I have four children, and I love 127 00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:47,240 Speaker 2: them all very dearly, but one thing that they are 128 00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:50,280 Speaker 2: not is convenient. And so if we are seeing a 129 00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:55,200 Speaker 2: worldwide shift away from inconvenience, I think I know what 130 00:08:55,240 --> 00:08:58,520 Speaker 2: that's going to do to pressures on birth rights well. 131 00:08:58,520 --> 00:09:01,040 Speaker 1: And at the same time we're seeing it dramatic increase 132 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:03,120 Speaker 1: I think in the number of pets. 133 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:07,600 Speaker 2: Yes, I have a study in mind which I've got 134 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:09,440 Speaker 2: the title for. I haven't done the daddy yet, but 135 00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:12,760 Speaker 2: the study will be called and the pets shall inherit 136 00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:16,600 Speaker 2: the earth because if you go through different neighborhoods in 137 00:09:16,640 --> 00:09:20,040 Speaker 2: the US, not just the US, I've seen this also 138 00:09:20,160 --> 00:09:23,559 Speaker 2: in Europe and in Asia maybe other places as well. 139 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:28,559 Speaker 2: Pets are no longer always supplements to a family with children. 140 00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:34,440 Speaker 2: They're increasingly a substitute for the children, and the pets 141 00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:39,080 Speaker 2: get sort of anthropomorphosized by the pseudo parents or quasi parents, 142 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:40,760 Speaker 2: or whatever you wish to call it. There's been a 143 00:09:40,760 --> 00:09:45,199 Speaker 2: whole shift over in South Korea, which mentioned South Korea earlier, 144 00:09:45,720 --> 00:09:49,319 Speaker 2: where baby carriages and strollers, those companies aren't going out 145 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:53,319 Speaker 2: of business, they're just repurposing them for kittens and for puppies. 146 00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:56,640 Speaker 1: Much more in Europe than in the US. When you 147 00:09:56,640 --> 00:09:59,679 Speaker 1: go into a restaurant and you look around and there 148 00:09:59,679 --> 00:10:01,760 Speaker 1: are pe people who have brought their pet with them 149 00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:04,520 Speaker 1: because they are part of the family. I mean, they 150 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:08,760 Speaker 1: don't go anywhere without them. People need social contact, and 151 00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:11,839 Speaker 1: so in the age of the cell phone, if you're 152 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:13,240 Speaker 1: not going to have children, you can at least have 153 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:13,679 Speaker 1: a dog. 154 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:17,760 Speaker 2: It's a strange paradox, isn't it. They've never been so 155 00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:21,000 Speaker 2: many people on earth is today. The world has never 156 00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:24,160 Speaker 2: been as densely populated as it is today, and yet 157 00:10:24,200 --> 00:10:25,880 Speaker 2: in some ways it seems like it's never been as 158 00:10:25,960 --> 00:10:45,600 Speaker 2: lonely as it is today. Isn't that strange. 159 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:48,520 Speaker 1: One of the reasons I was so eager to have 160 00:10:48,559 --> 00:10:51,280 Speaker 1: a chance to chat with you directly is the study 161 00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:57,600 Speaker 1: you just did on the number of males who aren't 162 00:10:57,640 --> 00:11:01,800 Speaker 1: working but they're not unemployed. I think this is a phenomenon. 163 00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:09,720 Speaker 2: It's a historically established fact for post war American society today. 164 00:11:10,480 --> 00:11:14,880 Speaker 2: Take a look at the latest monthly jobs report about 165 00:11:14,920 --> 00:11:20,840 Speaker 2: seven million prime age men. That's official government term for 166 00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:24,560 Speaker 2: the twenty five to fifty four group. For pretty self 167 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:29,080 Speaker 2: evident reasons, dur in the prime of life. Seven million 168 00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:35,880 Speaker 2: prime age men, roughly speaking, are workforce dropouts. They're neither 169 00:11:36,080 --> 00:11:42,560 Speaker 2: working nor looking for work. And this means you add 170 00:11:42,679 --> 00:11:47,280 Speaker 2: these roughly seven million to the little over two and 171 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:50,960 Speaker 2: a half million who are formally unemployed who don't have 172 00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:54,640 Speaker 2: a job but are looking for them. The work rate 173 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:59,720 Speaker 2: for prime age men in America today is slightly lower 174 00:11:59,760 --> 00:12:03,640 Speaker 2: than it was when we first developed this measurement for 175 00:12:03,720 --> 00:12:07,440 Speaker 2: the nineteen forty census at the tail end of the 176 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:11,760 Speaker 2: Great Depression, when a national unemployment rate was fourteen percent. 177 00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:16,160 Speaker 2: The work rate for Americans today is lower than it 178 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:19,079 Speaker 2: was in early nineteen forty at the tail end of 179 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:21,760 Speaker 2: the Great Depression. It's kind of mind blowing. 180 00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:28,200 Speaker 1: You're talking about people who have consciously, in a sense, 181 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:28,880 Speaker 1: dropped out. 182 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:32,160 Speaker 2: Well, if you take a look at the seven million, 183 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:36,160 Speaker 2: there is a small fraction that I would describe as 184 00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:41,120 Speaker 2: full time students, people who have taken a semester off, 185 00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:43,240 Speaker 2: if you want to put it that way, from the workforce, 186 00:12:43,320 --> 00:12:45,880 Speaker 2: because they're skilling up and they intend to go back. 187 00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 2: Their patterns of life are totally different from the long 188 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:55,640 Speaker 2: term dropouts. And this long term dropout group is well 189 00:12:55,679 --> 00:13:00,480 Speaker 2: over six million. And what we see about this long 190 00:13:00,559 --> 00:13:04,120 Speaker 2: term dropout group from their own self reporting, I think 191 00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:10,559 Speaker 2: is really pretty distressing. This isn't like therapists or anthropologists 192 00:13:10,640 --> 00:13:14,640 Speaker 2: or people examining them. Every year, the Department of Labor 193 00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 2: comes out with a time use survey. It asks people 194 00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:20,240 Speaker 2: what they do between the time they wake up and 195 00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 2: they go to bed and how long they sleep. And 196 00:13:23,640 --> 00:13:28,040 Speaker 2: they get self reported answers from the male dropouts. And 197 00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:30,360 Speaker 2: you look at this stuff and you have to be 198 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 2: very concerned. The male dropouts say that they basically don't 199 00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:39,800 Speaker 2: do civil society. It's almost no worship, almost no charitable activity, 200 00:13:39,880 --> 00:13:43,840 Speaker 2: almost no volunteering. They've got tons of time on their hands, 201 00:13:44,280 --> 00:13:49,720 Speaker 2: and they do surprisingly little work around the house, you know, cleaning, 202 00:13:50,200 --> 00:13:52,960 Speaker 2: helping out with other people in the homes. What they 203 00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:58,320 Speaker 2: report doing is watching screens. They say that they're watching 204 00:13:58,880 --> 00:14:01,280 Speaker 2: we don't know what exactly clear, what type of screens, 205 00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:06,440 Speaker 2: but they're watching stuff for about two thousand hours a 206 00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:09,920 Speaker 2: year now, two thousand hours a year, almost like a 207 00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:15,559 Speaker 2: full time job. And you add to this the additional 208 00:14:15,600 --> 00:14:18,679 Speaker 2: item that is reported on one of the surveys they 209 00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:24,280 Speaker 2: added as just a question before the pandemic, just about 210 00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:28,640 Speaker 2: half of these dropout men said that they were taking 211 00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:33,680 Speaker 2: pain medication every day. So it's not just like playing 212 00:14:33,880 --> 00:14:37,760 Speaker 2: video games at home in the basement is playing video 213 00:14:37,840 --> 00:14:41,160 Speaker 2: games at home in the basement stoned. This is not 214 00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:45,360 Speaker 2: a formula for human flourishing. This is a formula for misery. 215 00:14:45,640 --> 00:14:51,920 Speaker 1: Which sort of relates to how the culture has really 216 00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:56,680 Speaker 1: found less and less capacity for optimism and joy. 217 00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:00,440 Speaker 2: I don't think there's a lot of joy in this life. 218 00:15:00,680 --> 00:15:03,360 Speaker 2: I think there's a lot of call it pain, whether 219 00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:07,200 Speaker 2: it's physical pain or psychic pain, or being connected to 220 00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:11,960 Speaker 2: your so called community through the false friend of the internet. 221 00:15:12,800 --> 00:15:16,320 Speaker 2: We all know that that little Greek fellow way back 222 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:20,840 Speaker 2: when Aristotle was describing a world twenty five hundred years ago. 223 00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:24,800 Speaker 2: But when he said that us human beings are social creatures, 224 00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:29,080 Speaker 2: we haven't changed that much. We need people, we need family, 225 00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:33,600 Speaker 2: we need work to help fulfill us. We need our communities, 226 00:15:33,640 --> 00:15:36,320 Speaker 2: we need our faith. And there are a lot of 227 00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:40,680 Speaker 2: people who think that solitary confinement is cruel and unusual 228 00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:44,120 Speaker 2: punishment when meeted out by the state. But this is 229 00:15:44,200 --> 00:15:50,160 Speaker 2: something like solitary confinement. What is it? Because you're the historian, 230 00:15:50,280 --> 00:15:53,520 Speaker 2: But when I look at these trends, I see this 231 00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:58,040 Speaker 2: flight from the workforce for men, for the prime age 232 00:15:58,040 --> 00:16:02,320 Speaker 2: men seems to have been them in about the mid sixties. 233 00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:05,360 Speaker 2: We don't really see any sign of this from the 234 00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:08,680 Speaker 2: end of World War Two until the mid sixties. So 235 00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:11,840 Speaker 2: what happened Starting in the mid sixties We started to 236 00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:17,400 Speaker 2: see the breakdown of the formerly traditional family. We saw 237 00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:23,320 Speaker 2: the big expansion of the US welfare state. We saw 238 00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:29,400 Speaker 2: the explosion of crime and then the pendulum of punishment, 239 00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:34,600 Speaker 2: huge explosion in felonies, felonization in the United States, so 240 00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:40,960 Speaker 2: big increases in immigration. Now our newcomers are immigrants, no 241 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:46,040 Speaker 2: matter what their ethnicity or almost their educational level. Their guys, 242 00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:48,120 Speaker 2: they're more likely to be in the game. They're more 243 00:16:48,200 --> 00:16:52,160 Speaker 2: likely to be working than their counterpart, native born Americans. 244 00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:55,040 Speaker 2: So there are all sorts of things that have changed 245 00:16:55,080 --> 00:17:00,120 Speaker 2: our society, and the mores have clearly changed as well. 246 00:17:00,000 --> 00:17:03,680 Speaker 1: All these mostly people who are living by themselves or 247 00:17:03,720 --> 00:17:06,719 Speaker 1: are they part of a household with other people. 248 00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:11,359 Speaker 2: It's a very good question. They're more likely to be 249 00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:16,720 Speaker 2: living by themselves than guys who are in the workforce. 250 00:17:17,240 --> 00:17:21,960 Speaker 2: They're much more likely to be never married than guys 251 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:25,920 Speaker 2: who are in the workforce. Never married men are way 252 00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:32,199 Speaker 2: overrepresented in that pool of dropouts. They're more likely to 253 00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:37,960 Speaker 2: have lower levels of education, but there's a surprisingly high 254 00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:42,160 Speaker 2: proportion of people who've got some college or even college graduates, 255 00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:46,760 Speaker 2: so it's not it's not totally stratified in this way either, 256 00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:51,000 Speaker 2: and they're disproportionately likely to be native born rather than 257 00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:52,159 Speaker 2: aren't born. 258 00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:55,440 Speaker 1: You end up with people who have been born into 259 00:17:55,440 --> 00:18:00,359 Speaker 1: the wealthiest society and history with the greatest plausible range 260 00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:05,480 Speaker 1: of opportunities to define any life they want, and they stop. 261 00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:09,720 Speaker 2: This is the paradox here, This is the paradox. I mean, 262 00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:14,200 Speaker 2: part of what I tried to document and describe analyze 263 00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:21,240 Speaker 2: in this book America's Human Arithmetic, is this phenomenon. I 264 00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:23,199 Speaker 2: don't know how one would call it. I call it 265 00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:26,280 Speaker 2: in this book. I call it the new misery, because 266 00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:31,240 Speaker 2: it's not a misery that's traditional. It's not the sort 267 00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:35,520 Speaker 2: of historical misery that is connected to too little income, 268 00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:40,679 Speaker 2: too little food, too little health. We're rolling in money, 269 00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:45,199 Speaker 2: We're awash with wealth in our society, and some of 270 00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:51,120 Speaker 2: the dysfunctions that we see today could only be financed 271 00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:58,040 Speaker 2: by a society with our historically unprecedented level of affluence. 272 00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:02,440 Speaker 2: You couldn't afford to have ten percent of guys as 273 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:05,760 Speaker 2: kind of permanent dropouts from the workforce if we had 274 00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:07,719 Speaker 2: a nineteenth century level of wealth. 275 00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:12,280 Speaker 1: And you're also not including in those people who may 276 00:19:12,280 --> 00:19:13,480 Speaker 1: be in the gray economy. 277 00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:17,399 Speaker 2: No, I'm not including gray economy. There is some of that. 278 00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:19,679 Speaker 2: Of course, there is some of that in the US, 279 00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:23,640 Speaker 2: and by definition Uncle Sam doesn't track that very well, 280 00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:28,000 Speaker 2: and our statisticians don't track that very well. But my impression, 281 00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:31,080 Speaker 2: and I have to say this is an impression, because 282 00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:35,159 Speaker 2: I have tried to look at this, is that while 283 00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:40,159 Speaker 2: the mail dropouts are making some money on the side, 284 00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:45,200 Speaker 2: it's more like pin money than like buying second home 285 00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:48,880 Speaker 2: sort of stuff. It's like enough money to go out 286 00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:52,480 Speaker 2: for a nice splurge at a restaurant or maybe even 287 00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:54,359 Speaker 2: if you come in with a big score, you know, 288 00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:57,479 Speaker 2: going on a little ship or something. But we're not 289 00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:00,920 Speaker 2: talking about a large number of invisible people who are 290 00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:04,440 Speaker 2: really working the way that we might, for example, expect 291 00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:08,800 Speaker 2: to see in Italy where everybody plays the tax avoid game. 292 00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:30,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, this is largely a male phenomenon. 293 00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:37,000 Speaker 2: Well it's largely a male phenomenon, but not entirely a 294 00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:42,199 Speaker 2: male phenomenon. We have a form of gender equality underway 295 00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:48,000 Speaker 2: that we may not totally welcome. Right now, as we speak, 296 00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:53,840 Speaker 2: labor force participation rates for prime age women in America 297 00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:57,880 Speaker 2: are more or less at all time highs. And from 298 00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:01,840 Speaker 2: an economic standpoint, that looks great, and it looks so 299 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:07,520 Speaker 2: great that people have ignored the little problem that's hiding 300 00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:11,680 Speaker 2: in plain sight. In the corner, which is the bookend 301 00:21:11,880 --> 00:21:16,960 Speaker 2: to the male dropouts, there's a women without work problem 302 00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:21,560 Speaker 2: that I would describe like this. Look at the prime 303 00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:25,800 Speaker 2: age women who are neither working nor looking for work, 304 00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:29,880 Speaker 2: but who also have no children at home with them, 305 00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:33,639 Speaker 2: under the same roof, in the same household, same family, 306 00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:38,800 Speaker 2: and who are not presently married. If you look at 307 00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:43,840 Speaker 2: that group, it has been growing exponentially over time, quietly, 308 00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:47,680 Speaker 2: but exponentially. I talk about seven million more or less 309 00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:51,480 Speaker 2: dropout guys. When I try to do the numbers on 310 00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:54,960 Speaker 2: call them the dropout girls, it's about three and a 311 00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:58,840 Speaker 2: half million. It's only half as large as the guys. 312 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:02,240 Speaker 2: But let's wait and see where we are. Just like 313 00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:07,440 Speaker 2: the dropout guys, this group of women, about half of them, 314 00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:10,760 Speaker 2: say that they're taking pain meds every day the same 315 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:15,400 Speaker 2: sort of way they report time use patterns that are 316 00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:19,000 Speaker 2: a little bit too close for comfort to what I 317 00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:23,280 Speaker 2: described about the dropout men. So we're seeing this for 318 00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:27,639 Speaker 2: both men and women. It's just that the men seem 319 00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:30,160 Speaker 2: to be the leading indicator, if you want to put 320 00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:30,800 Speaker 2: it that way. 321 00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:37,280 Speaker 1: But you do have dramatically more women in college and 322 00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:41,960 Speaker 1: in law school, which to me raises the question to 323 00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:48,639 Speaker 1: what extent does that exacerbate finding husbands's historically women married 324 00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:49,880 Speaker 1: up a down. 325 00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:53,240 Speaker 2: I mean, I think you've put your finger on a 326 00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:57,879 Speaker 2: huge question. Demographers have kind of a Greek name that 327 00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:01,760 Speaker 2: makes it sound like something illicit hypergamme. You can't be 328 00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:04,679 Speaker 2: arrested for that. It's like a game of musical chairs, 329 00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:09,600 Speaker 2: as you indicate, And if over half of the higher 330 00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:15,280 Speaker 2: educated population now going through colleges and universities are women, 331 00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:19,240 Speaker 2: you'd see how the arithmetic is going to look. Unless 332 00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:23,720 Speaker 2: there is a big change in the social contract, we've 333 00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:26,240 Speaker 2: got a kind of a suplind demand problem, and. 334 00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:29,320 Speaker 1: I'm saying you're going to have a lot more women 335 00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:34,560 Speaker 1: who will find that there's not an acceptable male for 336 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:35,479 Speaker 1: them to pay attention. 337 00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:38,639 Speaker 2: Part of the problem also has been the sort of 338 00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:42,399 Speaker 2: the I don't have a better way of describing this, 339 00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:47,080 Speaker 2: but the male crackup over the last two generations. And 340 00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:51,840 Speaker 2: obviously it's not everybody, mostly not a male crackup, but 341 00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:53,760 Speaker 2: there are too many men for whom it has been 342 00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:58,040 Speaker 2: a crack up. Not just the dropping out of the workforce, 343 00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:07,639 Speaker 2: we've had an explosion of felony convictions, crime punishment. And 344 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:12,720 Speaker 2: at this point, although the government doesn't collect these figures 345 00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:16,239 Speaker 2: for reasons that I still don't understand. Since we've got 346 00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:19,200 Speaker 2: the first new nation and we started with a census, 347 00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:22,439 Speaker 2: which was pretty high tech in seventeen ninety, what we 348 00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:25,800 Speaker 2: want data does help us solve problems, but the number 349 00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:30,800 Speaker 2: of felons in America is statistically invisible from the standpoint 350 00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:33,520 Speaker 2: of the US government because we don't collect that info. 351 00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:36,119 Speaker 2: If you try to do back of the envelope or 352 00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:39,160 Speaker 2: slightly more rigorous than the back of the envelope calculations, 353 00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:43,440 Speaker 2: it looks today as if one in seven adult men 354 00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:48,040 Speaker 2: as a felony convictions background. And what this means is 355 00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:51,320 Speaker 2: that when you look at the entire population of people 356 00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:56,920 Speaker 2: who've got felony convictions, you talk a lot about nass incarceration, 357 00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:01,760 Speaker 2: but for every person who's in prison in the United States, 358 00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:05,440 Speaker 2: they're ten or more in society in general. They've got 359 00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:09,200 Speaker 2: a felony conviction in their background. One in seven men. 360 00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:14,480 Speaker 2: Maybe that's got a huge impact on life trajectories after that. 361 00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:18,359 Speaker 1: Do you have any idea what the overlap is between 362 00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:21,760 Speaker 1: being having been in prison and being part of the 363 00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:22,600 Speaker 1: seven million. 364 00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:29,600 Speaker 2: I can't tell you for sure because our information on 365 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:36,440 Speaker 2: invisible x con America is so bad at the national level. 366 00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:40,480 Speaker 2: But I do have a chapter in this latest book 367 00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:46,760 Speaker 2: in America's Human Arithmetic. Right, take what survey data and 368 00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:50,960 Speaker 2: datasets might help with this, And here's what I find. 369 00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:57,200 Speaker 2: No matter what your ethnicity, no matter what your education level, 370 00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:02,200 Speaker 2: you're way more likely to be a workforce dropout if 371 00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:06,200 Speaker 2: you're a guy and you've been arrested than if you've 372 00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:10,480 Speaker 2: never been arrested. And you're way more likely to be 373 00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:14,000 Speaker 2: out of the workforce if you've been to prison than 374 00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:18,720 Speaker 2: if you've quote only been arrested unquote. Now that does 375 00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:23,399 Speaker 2: not tell us why this should be the case, but 376 00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:25,920 Speaker 2: it looks like it's pretty for real. 377 00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:31,720 Speaker 1: Since we already have a lot more serious thinking about 378 00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:37,080 Speaker 1: the transition out of prison and back into a full society. 379 00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:43,200 Speaker 2: We want people not to be recidivists. We want them 380 00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:45,400 Speaker 2: to go on the straight and narrow but paid their 381 00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:48,359 Speaker 2: debt to society. We don't want them to return to 382 00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:52,440 Speaker 2: a life of crime. We hope that we can unlock 383 00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:58,919 Speaker 2: the human potential that former offenders have. And in the 384 00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:03,040 Speaker 2: world that we're heading into where even the United States 385 00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:08,000 Speaker 2: is not guaranteed an escape from depopulation, we need all 386 00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:09,680 Speaker 2: the human resources we have. 387 00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:13,320 Speaker 1: Yep, you can sort of see it coming, but you 388 00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:16,320 Speaker 1: can't quite yet see how it's going to play out, 389 00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:19,520 Speaker 1: although I'm guessing in places like Japan we have some 390 00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:23,440 Speaker 1: notion because they're now twenty or thirty years ahead of us. 391 00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:27,399 Speaker 2: Japan is a fascinating example, isn't it. I mean, the 392 00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:30,399 Speaker 2: Japanese are very aware of how different they are from 393 00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:33,360 Speaker 2: everybody else in the world, and they say that they're 394 00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:37,359 Speaker 2: an exception, and maybe they are. One interesting thing about 395 00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:43,520 Speaker 2: Japan that makes me somewhat more hopeful about how the 396 00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:48,720 Speaker 2: world can deal with depopulation. As you say, Japan's traditionally defined, 397 00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:52,679 Speaker 2: conventionally defined working age population has been shrinking for thirty years. 398 00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:57,040 Speaker 2: It's head count has been going down for over fifteen years, 399 00:27:57,680 --> 00:28:01,840 Speaker 2: and last year it records or did its highest ever 400 00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:07,840 Speaker 2: number of employed people. And it sounds like a contradiction, 401 00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:12,960 Speaker 2: But what it means is that labor force participation rates 402 00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:17,479 Speaker 2: have been going up, and because Japan is just about 403 00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:21,960 Speaker 2: the healthiest country in the world, the longest life expectancy 404 00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:26,040 Speaker 2: at birth, people who would formerly have been in retirement 405 00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:34,719 Speaker 2: are economically actively engaged, and there's a lot of prospect there, 406 00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:38,480 Speaker 2: I think, all around the world for unlocking the value 407 00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:41,640 Speaker 2: of health, especially with healthy aging. 408 00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:46,680 Speaker 1: You're also suggesting, I think that if you've found a 409 00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:49,600 Speaker 1: way of most of the seven million back in the game, 410 00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:53,160 Speaker 1: and if you've found a way to get people to 411 00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:55,560 Speaker 1: find jobs that they want to do, I mean, I 412 00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:58,120 Speaker 1: suspect you and I are both in the same boat 413 00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:02,040 Speaker 1: and that neither of us will ever fully retire because 414 00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:05,560 Speaker 1: what we do is our hobby, which we convince people 415 00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:07,680 Speaker 1: to pay us for, so they think it's work, but 416 00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:09,760 Speaker 1: in fact it's what we want to do. 417 00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:11,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, a lot of fun. 418 00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:16,320 Speaker 1: Yeah. So I mean, in that sense, we may not 419 00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:20,880 Speaker 1: have sort of a crisis of underemployment or a crisis 420 00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:24,520 Speaker 1: of not having enough people to fill jobs, at least 421 00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:25,640 Speaker 1: for a very long time. 422 00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:33,480 Speaker 2: Too many men in the United States don't understand is 423 00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:39,240 Speaker 2: that a job isn't just a paycheck. Work is a 424 00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:44,120 Speaker 2: service to other people that helps complete you. And if 425 00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:48,000 Speaker 2: you haven't been in the paid workforce, there's a whole 426 00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:53,920 Speaker 2: vista that you don't understand about real self fulfillment. I 427 00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:57,120 Speaker 2: can tell this to people in the same way that 428 00:29:57,200 --> 00:29:59,560 Speaker 2: I can tell them you don't understand what life's like 429 00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:02,160 Speaker 2: if you don't to have children. But there's no way 430 00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:05,400 Speaker 2: that you can really explain technicolor to people who are 431 00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:06,600 Speaker 2: living in black and white. 432 00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:10,400 Speaker 1: Reagan, you used to say that the best social program 433 00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:10,720 Speaker 1: is a. 434 00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:15,640 Speaker 2: Job, being connected to the workplace, being connected to society. 435 00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:20,120 Speaker 2: We talk in this very narrow way about self fulfillment, 436 00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:23,040 Speaker 2: but there's kind of a broader and we get back 437 00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:26,520 Speaker 2: to Aristotle, or we get to the Christian classics, get 438 00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:29,960 Speaker 2: to the tenets of Western civilization. But it's a question 439 00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:34,120 Speaker 2: about completing yourself as a human being. There's something there 440 00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:37,160 Speaker 2: that's fulfilling in a way that's kind of hard to 441 00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:39,280 Speaker 2: describe to people who haven't watched it. 442 00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:44,280 Speaker 1: Your book, America's Human Arithmetic is actually a series of 443 00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:48,000 Speaker 1: essays written over the past thirty years that look at 444 00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:52,400 Speaker 1: what you describe as an examination in American condition. Why 445 00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:54,480 Speaker 1: did you decide to publish it now? 446 00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:59,280 Speaker 2: Well, twenty twenty six seems like a pretty good year 447 00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:04,960 Speaker 2: to take the temperature for our national experiments, since it's 448 00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:11,240 Speaker 2: a quarter of millennium underway, And it also seemed like 449 00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:14,400 Speaker 2: a good time to take a measure of where we are, 450 00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:21,680 Speaker 2: because there seems to be so much dissatisfaction in our country, distrust, 451 00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:27,880 Speaker 2: lack of confidence in our institutions, anxiety, and it seemed 452 00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:31,000 Speaker 2: to me that it was just an extraordinary, i would say, 453 00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:41,800 Speaker 2: agonizing irony to the contraposition between our national achievement. Most 454 00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:46,720 Speaker 2: powerful country that's ever existed in history, more reach than 455 00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:51,840 Speaker 2: the Mongols, more reach than the Roman Empire. No country 456 00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:55,640 Speaker 2: has ever created as much wealth as we have. Were 457 00:31:55,960 --> 00:32:00,840 Speaker 2: one hundred and eighty trillion dollars of five back worth 458 00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:04,880 Speaker 2: with a T it's an unimaginable amount of money. Despite 459 00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:09,800 Speaker 2: these achievements, there's so much dissatisfaction with America's place in 460 00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:13,800 Speaker 2: the world today, in our own country and trying to 461 00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:18,960 Speaker 2: understand where's the disjuncture. And that's why I put together 462 00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:21,960 Speaker 2: this collection of essays, because I think looking at some 463 00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:25,160 Speaker 2: of these problems that have been hiding in plain sight 464 00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:29,120 Speaker 2: helps us to get a better bearing on where we've gone. 465 00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:33,000 Speaker 2: Wrong and on maybe how we can get it right again. 466 00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:39,560 Speaker 1: I can encourage everybody listening to get America's Human Earthmetic because, 467 00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:43,959 Speaker 1: as usual, just in this one conversation, I find that 468 00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:46,960 Speaker 1: I learned so much from you, and I'm similar to 469 00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:50,720 Speaker 1: think about new ideas that you really are I think, 470 00:32:50,760 --> 00:32:54,239 Speaker 1: intellectually a national treasure, and I hope you will for 471 00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:58,000 Speaker 1: a very long time continue to think and learn and 472 00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:01,240 Speaker 1: educators and or thank you for joining me. Your new book, 473 00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:05,440 Speaker 1: America's Human Arithmetic, is available at Ellen Amazon, in our 474 00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:08,800 Speaker 1: bookstores everywhere. Our listeners can follow the work you're doing 475 00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:13,000 Speaker 1: with an American Enterprise Institute by visiting AEI dot org. 476 00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:15,440 Speaker 1: And I am confident that we'll come back at some 477 00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:17,800 Speaker 1: point in their future. Beg you to come back and 478 00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:18,840 Speaker 1: have another conversation. 479 00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:21,120 Speaker 2: Thank you so much, with so much fun for me, 480 00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:22,360 Speaker 2: force me to come back. 481 00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:29,840 Speaker 1: Thank you to my guests, Doctor Nicholas Eberstad. News World 482 00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:33,920 Speaker 1: is produced by Gingers three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive 483 00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:38,720 Speaker 1: producer is Guarnsey Sloan. Our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The 484 00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:42,600 Speaker 1: artwork for the show was created by Steve Penley. Special 485 00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:45,480 Speaker 1: thanks to the team at Gingerish three sixty. If you've 486 00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:48,400 Speaker 1: been enjoying Newtsworld, I hope you'll go to Apple Podcasts 487 00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:51,360 Speaker 1: and both rate us with five stars and give us 488 00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:54,040 Speaker 1: a review so others can learn what it's all about. 489 00:33:55,040 --> 00:33:58,720 Speaker 1: Join me on substack at gingerstree sixty dot net. I'm 490 00:33:58,800 --> 00:34:00,800 Speaker 1: new Gingrich this to his new truck.