1 00:00:04,519 --> 00:00:16,239 Speaker 1: Let scamble on the Academy Awards and welcome to the 2 00:00:16,280 --> 00:00:19,960 Speaker 1: Action Networks Oscars Bets Podcast. 3 00:00:20,520 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 2: I am Chris Raybon. 4 00:00:22,239 --> 00:00:25,000 Speaker 1: I am joined by Katie rich Creek and Colin Whitchurch 5 00:00:25,560 --> 00:00:27,600 Speaker 1: as we are going to break down all of our 6 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:32,040 Speaker 1: best bets for this year's Oscars. Of course, we dropped 7 00:00:32,040 --> 00:00:35,840 Speaker 1: another podcast where you can listen to us breakdown each 8 00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:38,040 Speaker 1: of the eight major categories, so if you want to 9 00:00:38,120 --> 00:00:40,239 Speaker 1: check that out, that is currently out now. 10 00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:41,920 Speaker 2: But here talk about. 11 00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:46,360 Speaker 1: All of our best bets for this upcoming Oscars, including 12 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:50,320 Speaker 1: a couple of debates between underdog upsets that you guys 13 00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:53,720 Speaker 1: can pick through. So let's get right into it. Katie, 14 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:55,760 Speaker 1: let's start us off. I know you like a long 15 00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:58,720 Speaker 1: shot bet for International. 16 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 3: Feature, so I would be shocked if Drive My Car 17 00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:06,200 Speaker 3: does not win as a minus twenty five hundred favorite 18 00:01:06,280 --> 00:01:09,360 Speaker 3: this Sunday. It has a Best Picture, Best Director, Best 19 00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:14,200 Speaker 3: Adapted Screenplay nomination, but we're looking for betting value and 20 00:01:14,240 --> 00:01:16,640 Speaker 3: this is my favorite long shot is worst person in 21 00:01:16,680 --> 00:01:20,039 Speaker 3: the world to win Best International Feature. My case for that, 22 00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:23,360 Speaker 3: very quickly is just the film has generated a lot 23 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:26,880 Speaker 3: of buzz. Jaquim treer foot the rom com strip to 24 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:30,520 Speaker 3: fit twenty twenty two, and the buzz, coupled with its 25 00:01:30,600 --> 00:01:34,800 Speaker 3: Original Screenplay nomination makes it just viable enough of a 26 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:38,200 Speaker 3: contender within this category to make the value at ten 27 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:39,559 Speaker 3: to one worth a bet. 28 00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:43,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, I love driving my car, but I started it 29 00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 1: and it's still going and I started it last week. 30 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:47,639 Speaker 2: So long ass movie. 31 00:01:48,280 --> 00:01:51,559 Speaker 1: Maybe it gets upset, But let's talk about some short 32 00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:54,760 Speaker 1: some shorter movies, because I think these are some of 33 00:01:54,800 --> 00:01:58,640 Speaker 1: the best values on the board because they're not as popular, 34 00:01:58,840 --> 00:01:59,680 Speaker 1: so people don't know as. 35 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:00,360 Speaker 2: Much about them. 36 00:02:00,360 --> 00:02:02,600 Speaker 1: So when I'm making my oscar bets, I look at 37 00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:05,640 Speaker 1: a site called golderby dot com. It's where a bunch 38 00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:09,639 Speaker 1: of industry experts essentially make their picks. So it's kind 39 00:02:09,639 --> 00:02:12,680 Speaker 1: of like the sharps of the oscar betting, and I 40 00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:16,760 Speaker 1: kind of translate the percentage of picks to and implied odds, 41 00:02:16,800 --> 00:02:19,040 Speaker 1: and I compare it to the real odds, and I 42 00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:23,520 Speaker 1: see value for all three of the short film categories, 43 00:02:23,919 --> 00:02:28,720 Speaker 1: starting with Best Documentary Short, The Queen of Basketball. It's 44 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:31,280 Speaker 1: getting about seventy percent of the picks on gold Derby, 45 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:33,760 Speaker 1: so it should be about minus two thirty and you 46 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:36,440 Speaker 1: can still get it at minus one point fifty five 47 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:38,960 Speaker 1: on Draftking, so great value there. 48 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:40,760 Speaker 2: Then we have. 49 00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:46,480 Speaker 1: Best Live Action Short, and the Long Goodbye is getting 50 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:49,800 Speaker 1: about eighty three percent of the picks on gold Derby, 51 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 1: so that should be all the way up at about 52 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:54,519 Speaker 1: minus four seventy five, but you can get that at 53 00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:57,960 Speaker 1: minus two twenty five on Draftking, so another great value. 54 00:02:58,360 --> 00:03:02,280 Speaker 1: And then finally small value on Best Animated Short, Robin 55 00:03:02,400 --> 00:03:05,840 Speaker 1: Robin getting about sixty five percent of the vote on 56 00:03:05,919 --> 00:03:08,360 Speaker 1: gold Derby. It should be about minus one ninety and 57 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:10,840 Speaker 1: you can get it at minus one seventy five one Drafting. 58 00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:13,799 Speaker 1: So not as big of a value there for Best 59 00:03:13,840 --> 00:03:17,040 Speaker 1: Animated Short for Robin Robin. But I really do like 60 00:03:17,639 --> 00:03:20,519 Speaker 1: the Long Goodbye for live action in Queen of Basketball 61 00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 1: for documentary in the short film categories. 62 00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:26,160 Speaker 2: And then one more I wanted to talk about is 63 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:26,720 Speaker 2: best Song. 64 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:30,200 Speaker 1: Now I think you know Billy I wish is had 65 00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:31,720 Speaker 1: the best song with No Time to Die. 66 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:35,720 Speaker 2: It is the front runner, but on gold Derby a lot. 67 00:03:35,560 --> 00:03:39,600 Speaker 1: Of the experts seem to think that dose Er Aguitas 68 00:03:39,600 --> 00:03:43,000 Speaker 1: from Encanto could potentially pull the upset. It's getting about 69 00:03:43,000 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 1: forty percent of the vote, so that should be you 70 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:49,760 Speaker 1: know about plus one fifty odds and it's all the 71 00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:50,800 Speaker 1: way up at plus two to. 72 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 2: Twenty five at Draftking. 73 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:55,640 Speaker 1: So it's a decent long shot that you could take 74 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 1: a chance on with li Lin Manuel Miranda for that one. 75 00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:02,120 Speaker 1: So those are kind of my best bets in some 76 00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:05,040 Speaker 1: of the less popular categories that I think you can 77 00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:07,000 Speaker 1: find value at because the market is going to be 78 00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:11,760 Speaker 1: even less sharp in terms of what the books are posting. 79 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:12,960 Speaker 2: But let's go. 80 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:18,359 Speaker 1: Into another one and Colin, I know you want to 81 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:21,480 Speaker 1: talk about one of my favorite films of the year, 82 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:25,880 Speaker 1: and that is Flee, which is nominated in three categories, 83 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:28,640 Speaker 1: a Documentary, International and Animated Feature. 84 00:04:29,200 --> 00:04:31,839 Speaker 2: Talk about this and where you are investing. 85 00:04:32,720 --> 00:04:35,640 Speaker 4: Yes, I love Lee. It's one of my favorite movies 86 00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:39,000 Speaker 4: of the year. And I'm like you said, it's remarkably 87 00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:43,279 Speaker 4: nominated Best Animated Feature, Best International Feature, and Best Documentary Feature. 88 00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:46,440 Speaker 4: It somehow fits into all three categories. I'm not going 89 00:04:46,480 --> 00:04:48,679 Speaker 4: to explain to you how that's possible. I just recommend 90 00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:52,479 Speaker 4: everyone go see it. It's that good. Unfortunately, has little 91 00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:54,760 Speaker 4: chance of bringing home a gold statue in any of 92 00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:57,479 Speaker 4: those three categories. It's not a favorite in any of 93 00:04:57,480 --> 00:05:00,760 Speaker 4: the three, but Best documentary feature represents its best Since 94 00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:03,880 Speaker 4: the BAFT has began awarding a documentary feature regularly back 95 00:05:04,000 --> 00:05:07,200 Speaker 4: in twenty eleven, it is dominated in terms of predicting 96 00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:11,000 Speaker 4: Academy Awards success. Last year correctly predicted My Octopus Teacher, 97 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 4: which was the fifth correct prediction in the last ten years. 98 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:16,919 Speaker 4: The IDA is the International Documentary Awards have been awarding 99 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:18,880 Speaker 4: a top price here for a lot longer, but since 100 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:22,239 Speaker 4: the baf DOES introduced the category, the Ideas have only 101 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:26,280 Speaker 4: three correct predictions. This year, the baff DOES awarded their 102 00:05:26,320 --> 00:05:29,160 Speaker 4: top price to Summer of Soul, which is the Oscar favorite, 103 00:05:29,160 --> 00:05:31,680 Speaker 4: while the Ideas went with Flee. So the odds are 104 00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:35,080 Speaker 4: stacked against Fleet, but plus three forty percents pretty good 105 00:05:35,200 --> 00:05:38,040 Speaker 4: value here for a legitimate upset, and it deserved upset. 106 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:39,440 Speaker 2: We don't have to go back. 107 00:05:39,320 --> 00:05:41,520 Speaker 4: Very far to find an instance where the Academy went 108 00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:43,479 Speaker 4: with the IDA choice over the baf DOES. It was 109 00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:47,800 Speaker 4: twenty sixteen when oj Made in America beat thirteen. So 110 00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:50,719 Speaker 4: while Fleet doesn't have a shot at best International Feature 111 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:53,520 Speaker 4: in any way, shape or form and its best Animated feature, 112 00:05:53,760 --> 00:05:56,640 Speaker 4: odds are too long to recommend, with Kanto probably taking 113 00:05:56,680 --> 00:05:57,160 Speaker 4: the prize. 114 00:05:57,160 --> 00:05:57,400 Speaker 2: There. 115 00:05:57,920 --> 00:06:01,440 Speaker 4: Best documentary feature is where it has some value. I 116 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:03,480 Speaker 4: think that the Academy is gonna want to recognize it's 117 00:06:03,480 --> 00:06:06,159 Speaker 4: brilliance somewhere, so that's the category that it's going to do. 118 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:09,320 Speaker 4: So so I'll take Flee plus three forty. I'd probably 119 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 4: bet it to plus three hundred. 120 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:14,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, FLEEA is like I've gone back and forth on 121 00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:17,800 Speaker 1: this because you know, looking at gold Derby, it actually 122 00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:21,760 Speaker 1: does have some value in terms of best animated feature. 123 00:06:21,839 --> 00:06:24,520 Speaker 1: You know, some of the experts are thinking it's only 124 00:06:24,560 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 1: about twelve percent, but it should be about plus seven 125 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:29,800 Speaker 1: thirty three would be fair odds, and it is up 126 00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:31,440 Speaker 1: at plus one thousand on FanDuel. 127 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:33,159 Speaker 2: So it's a super long shot. 128 00:06:33,240 --> 00:06:36,200 Speaker 1: But there are some industry kind of insiders that think 129 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:39,159 Speaker 1: it does have a chance. But yeah, I'm kind of 130 00:06:39,200 --> 00:06:41,600 Speaker 1: with you when I've watched both of them. I watched 131 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:44,440 Speaker 1: them back to back and I thought Summer a Soul 132 00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:46,240 Speaker 1: was amazing and I was like, Wow, no, wonder that's 133 00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:47,760 Speaker 1: the front runner. And then I saw Flee and I 134 00:06:47,800 --> 00:06:51,159 Speaker 1: was like, I don't know. So the only kind of 135 00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:53,560 Speaker 1: knock against Fleet, you know, besides what you laid out, 136 00:06:53,640 --> 00:06:57,239 Speaker 1: is that here at gold Derby, you know, this film 137 00:06:57,279 --> 00:06:58,800 Speaker 1: that looks like it's undervalue now. 138 00:06:58,720 --> 00:06:59,680 Speaker 2: Is Summer of Souls. 139 00:06:59,760 --> 00:07:04,400 Speaker 1: So Summer of Soul is getting about eighty eight percent 140 00:07:04,520 --> 00:07:07,400 Speaker 1: of the support on gold Derby, which means that should 141 00:07:07,400 --> 00:07:09,440 Speaker 1: be about you know, seven thirty three, and it's closer 142 00:07:09,440 --> 00:07:10,400 Speaker 1: to minus three hundred. 143 00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:11,480 Speaker 2: So I don't know. 144 00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:13,160 Speaker 1: I'm going kind of back and forth on that, but 145 00:07:13,720 --> 00:07:16,320 Speaker 1: my initial gut was telling me that like Flee does 146 00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:19,160 Speaker 1: have a chance in this documentary category, So I kind 147 00:07:19,160 --> 00:07:22,520 Speaker 1: of like that one. All right, let me quickly talk 148 00:07:22,520 --> 00:07:25,520 Speaker 1: about the Eyes of Tammy Fay for makeup and hairstyle 149 00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:28,320 Speaker 1: and then we'll jump into film editing. I know we 150 00:07:28,360 --> 00:07:30,560 Speaker 1: all have an opinion there seems to be a lout 151 00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:32,840 Speaker 1: of value in that one. But quickly the Eyes of 152 00:07:32,840 --> 00:07:37,840 Speaker 1: Tammy Fay in the makeup and hairstyling category, this one 153 00:07:38,040 --> 00:07:41,120 Speaker 1: is a near unanimous choice on gold Derby, and you 154 00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:45,440 Speaker 1: can get it at minus three hundred. So minus three 155 00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 1: hundred gives it about a seventy five percent chance to 156 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:51,160 Speaker 1: win at gold Derby. It's closer than ninety percent including 157 00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:53,720 Speaker 1: all of every single one of the gold Derby editors. 158 00:07:53,760 --> 00:07:56,320 Speaker 1: So I think that this is a good value, a 159 00:07:56,360 --> 00:07:59,080 Speaker 1: good bet that you can kind of parlay with others 160 00:07:59,120 --> 00:08:01,360 Speaker 1: if you don't want to just wait the juice outright, 161 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:04,480 Speaker 1: So you know, you're kind of looking for these kind 162 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:07,000 Speaker 1: of sure things that aren't like minus twenty five hundred, 163 00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:11,000 Speaker 1: and I think Tammy Faye for makeup and hairstyling definitely qualifies. 164 00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:14,640 Speaker 1: But I want to talk about film editing, and Katie, 165 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:19,160 Speaker 1: I'll start with you. You know this category, there's Dune, 166 00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:23,600 Speaker 1: there's King Richard in this one, and I think there's 167 00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:25,560 Speaker 1: kind of some uncertainty. 168 00:08:25,840 --> 00:08:26,600 Speaker 2: It's wide open. 169 00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:29,239 Speaker 1: You know, Dune is a very short favorite. Even Power 170 00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:32,839 Speaker 1: their Dog is still there. You know, at three and 171 00:08:32,880 --> 00:08:36,120 Speaker 1: a half to one, what do you think of this category? 172 00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:40,160 Speaker 3: Wide open is the correct way to explain it. And 173 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:42,320 Speaker 3: we're about to get into some more categories after this 174 00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:46,760 Speaker 3: one that are also open, thus creating value. I personally 175 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:50,800 Speaker 3: like King Richard's value for film editing. It won the 176 00:08:50,840 --> 00:08:55,079 Speaker 3: ace over the favored Dune and Overpower of the Dog, 177 00:08:55,280 --> 00:08:57,839 Speaker 3: so I'm seeing value at that plus two hundred price. 178 00:08:58,320 --> 00:09:00,840 Speaker 3: Pamela and Martin's work on the in Battle of the 179 00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:03,640 Speaker 3: Sexes prepped her for the challenge of editing a film 180 00:09:03,640 --> 00:09:07,360 Speaker 3: about sports, But really this is a film about complex characters, 181 00:09:07,679 --> 00:09:11,960 Speaker 3: and her editing really enhanced will Smith's performance of Richard Williams. 182 00:09:12,040 --> 00:09:12,840 Speaker 2: So this is the. 183 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:15,760 Speaker 3: Film I'm targeting for editing. 184 00:09:16,920 --> 00:09:17,840 Speaker 2: Are you any thoughts there? 185 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:21,240 Speaker 4: I agree with Katie to a certain extent. The Aceti 186 00:09:21,280 --> 00:09:24,640 Speaker 4: Awards prize for Top Drama has historically been the best 187 00:09:24,640 --> 00:09:28,559 Speaker 4: predictor for Oscar success. It's gotten twelve right since two thousand. However, 188 00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:32,400 Speaker 4: it's been wrong the last two years, so King Richard, 189 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:34,560 Speaker 4: with the second lowest odds is interesting here. The baft 190 00:09:34,559 --> 00:09:38,040 Speaker 4: does have actually been more predictive than the Aceti Awards 191 00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 4: for Drama historically. However, the Baftist gave its top price 192 00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:44,400 Speaker 4: No Time to Die this year, which wasn't even nominated. 193 00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:48,920 Speaker 4: The Acets, like the Golden Globes, split their categories into 194 00:09:49,000 --> 00:09:52,920 Speaker 4: Drama and Comedy Musical, and their Comedy musical winner this 195 00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:55,200 Speaker 4: year was actually Tick Tick Boom, which we see all 196 00:09:55,200 --> 00:09:56,760 Speaker 4: the way down at plus thirteen. 197 00:09:56,559 --> 00:09:58,480 Speaker 2: Hundred on fan Duel. 198 00:09:58,960 --> 00:10:01,800 Speaker 4: So I agree with Katie that King Richard is the 199 00:10:01,880 --> 00:10:05,760 Speaker 4: pick at plus two hundred given the ace Eddie success. However, 200 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:11,080 Speaker 4: I wouldn't discredit Kicktick Boom as an kind of extra 201 00:10:11,800 --> 00:10:16,640 Speaker 4: long shot nibble of a bet there, just given it 202 00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:19,559 Speaker 4: its win at the Acedies. We also should mention Chris 203 00:10:19,600 --> 00:10:21,200 Speaker 4: that if you're going to be betting a lot of 204 00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:24,600 Speaker 4: these awards, the shorts you mentioned the technical categories here, 205 00:10:24,720 --> 00:10:26,079 Speaker 4: a lot of people like to bet kind of this 206 00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:28,400 Speaker 4: the show goes on, but because of the Academy's AS 207 00:10:28,559 --> 00:10:32,000 Speaker 4: nine decision to pre record a lot of these categories, 208 00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:34,600 Speaker 4: people need to get their bets in early film editing, 209 00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:39,480 Speaker 4: documentary short, makeup and hairstyling, original score, production design, animated short, 210 00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:42,120 Speaker 4: live action short, and sounder all going to be recorded 211 00:10:42,160 --> 00:10:45,440 Speaker 4: the hour before the live broadcast begins, So it's likely 212 00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:47,840 Speaker 4: these sportsbooks are going to take them down ahead of time, 213 00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:49,520 Speaker 4: So we just got to throw that out there for 214 00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:51,720 Speaker 4: people to remember going into Sunday. 215 00:10:52,640 --> 00:10:55,760 Speaker 3: Also to keep in mind is film editing is often 216 00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:58,160 Speaker 3: correlated with best Pictures, so the fact that it is 217 00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:01,800 Speaker 3: among the pre recorded awards makes the Best Picture odds 218 00:11:01,880 --> 00:11:03,600 Speaker 3: in the live window potentially interesting. 219 00:11:05,040 --> 00:11:08,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know, first of all, what a ridiculous 220 00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:12,360 Speaker 1: idea to like cut film editing from the main show 221 00:11:12,520 --> 00:11:12,960 Speaker 1: that I. 222 00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:15,520 Speaker 2: Just questionable editing. Yeah, right exactly. 223 00:11:15,600 --> 00:11:17,679 Speaker 1: I mean, hey, remember last year, you know, you had 224 00:11:17,960 --> 00:11:20,400 Speaker 1: what was the best Actor. Everyone thought Chadwick was gonna 225 00:11:20,400 --> 00:11:21,440 Speaker 1: get it and they were going to go to the 226 00:11:21,440 --> 00:11:23,040 Speaker 1: show and you just got out. 227 00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:25,680 Speaker 2: And so yeah, Oscars, they got some things to fix. 228 00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:28,600 Speaker 2: But I will say this, uh, I kind of like. 229 00:11:28,559 --> 00:11:32,560 Speaker 1: To capitalize off of uncertainty, just like you guys. The 230 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:35,000 Speaker 1: one thing I'm noticing, you know, when we did the 231 00:11:35,040 --> 00:11:38,319 Speaker 1: podcast yesterday the major categories, I said, Okay, it seems 232 00:11:38,360 --> 00:11:40,160 Speaker 1: like Power of the Dog is that you know, it 233 00:11:40,200 --> 00:11:42,400 Speaker 1: was a front runner most of the season and then 234 00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:46,120 Speaker 1: like this one thing happened, and then now everybody's questioning it, 235 00:11:46,160 --> 00:11:48,080 Speaker 1: and that one thing was you know, the producers. 236 00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:50,200 Speaker 2: Go would win for Coda this editing category. 237 00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:51,800 Speaker 1: I kind of feel like it's the same thing like 238 00:11:51,920 --> 00:11:55,040 Speaker 1: Dune was the runaway favorite for most of the season 239 00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:57,880 Speaker 1: and then you know there's all these you know, it's 240 00:11:57,920 --> 00:12:01,520 Speaker 1: not there's these you know, the Eddy comes and you 241 00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:03,720 Speaker 1: know then the Globe had split it up and so 242 00:12:03,760 --> 00:12:07,560 Speaker 1: there's not these like direct correlations between it's competing with 243 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:10,440 Speaker 1: King Richard necessarily in every single precursor. 244 00:12:10,920 --> 00:12:13,240 Speaker 2: I'm gonna take the value and just go with King Richard. 245 00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:17,640 Speaker 1: You know, it's down to minus one twenty at DraftKings 246 00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:22,160 Speaker 1: and that actually represents a pretty good value because gold 247 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:24,520 Speaker 1: Derby still has it about sixty four percent, which is 248 00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:27,600 Speaker 1: should be closer to minus one ninety minus two hundred. 249 00:12:27,679 --> 00:12:29,679 Speaker 1: So I'm just going to kind of go with the 250 00:12:29,760 --> 00:12:33,720 Speaker 1: with the you know, weaken favorite and hope it hangs 251 00:12:33,760 --> 00:12:36,120 Speaker 1: on there. But I agree, I think this is one 252 00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:38,720 Speaker 1: of the best categories where if you're looking for an underdog, 253 00:12:38,720 --> 00:12:40,120 Speaker 1: if you're looking for a long shot, if you're looking 254 00:12:40,120 --> 00:12:43,480 Speaker 1: for a short favorite, it has all of the ingredients 255 00:12:43,559 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 1: you know to bet. 256 00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:47,400 Speaker 2: So this is one of the best categories. Is best Editing. 257 00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:48,920 Speaker 2: Let's move on to. 258 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:54,120 Speaker 1: Actress, and I'm gonna I'm gonna sit here and sit 259 00:12:54,160 --> 00:12:56,560 Speaker 1: this one out with Katie. You and Colin kind of 260 00:12:56,880 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 1: dupe this one out because I'm sitting here with a 261 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:03,240 Speaker 1: plus five fifsfty ticket on the favorite Jessica Chastain, who's 262 00:13:03,280 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 1: now minus one seventy five. So now at this point, 263 00:13:07,640 --> 00:13:11,280 Speaker 1: I know you guys are looking in other areas, So Colin, 264 00:13:11,320 --> 00:13:11,960 Speaker 1: I'll start with you. 265 00:13:12,720 --> 00:13:16,000 Speaker 2: What are you doing here for Best Actress? Yeahs. 266 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:18,360 Speaker 4: In terms of the major awards, this is by far 267 00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:20,720 Speaker 4: the most intriguing. The odds have been all over the place. 268 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:24,120 Speaker 4: Nicole Kidman was the favorite when nominations were announced. She's 269 00:13:24,120 --> 00:13:27,440 Speaker 4: been lead fragged by Jessica Chastain. That happened after she 270 00:13:27,600 --> 00:13:31,000 Speaker 4: won at the SAG Awards. So the bafts are actually 271 00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:34,120 Speaker 4: the best predictor for Best Actress whens historically in Mashtay 272 00:13:34,160 --> 00:13:36,719 Speaker 4: Academy the last eight years and sixteen times total since 273 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:39,559 Speaker 4: two thousand. However, the Baftis gave their Best Actress Awards 274 00:13:39,559 --> 00:13:42,280 Speaker 4: to Joanna Scanlin for After Love and Sapandlin of course 275 00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:45,319 Speaker 4: isn't even nominated here. The SAG Awards have been right 276 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:47,600 Speaker 4: fifteen times since two thousand, and that's the sole reason 277 00:13:47,679 --> 00:13:50,480 Speaker 4: Chastain has moved into pole position in my opinion. However, 278 00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:52,920 Speaker 4: the Sacks have been incorrect into the last three years, 279 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:55,840 Speaker 4: as have the Golden Globes Drama, which went to Kidman. 280 00:13:56,559 --> 00:13:58,760 Speaker 4: So all of this hasn't anything can happen or to it, 281 00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 4: and that seems really true. So I think four of 282 00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:04,200 Speaker 4: the five nominees, with apologies to Penelope for Parallel Mothers, 283 00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:07,679 Speaker 4: which she's fantastic in, seemingly illegitimately in the running to 284 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:09,839 Speaker 4: walk out of the theater with the trophy. So the other 285 00:14:09,880 --> 00:14:13,040 Speaker 4: thing to consider here is the roles that these women 286 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:16,559 Speaker 4: play and their ages. Frances McDormand a year ago skirted 287 00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:20,640 Speaker 4: the playing historic figure principle, but she did win as 288 00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:22,600 Speaker 4: an actress over the age of sixty. She was sixty 289 00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:25,080 Speaker 4: three last year. So this year we have three women 290 00:14:25,120 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 4: playing historical figures, Chess, Dame Kidman, and Kristin Stewart. However, 291 00:14:28,920 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 4: four of the five nominees fall into that middle ground 292 00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:34,040 Speaker 4: age wise where we don't often see best actress whims 293 00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:38,080 Speaker 4: chas Dain's forty four, Kidman's fifty four, Olivia Coleman's forty eight, 294 00:14:38,080 --> 00:14:41,280 Speaker 4: and Cruise is forty seven. Kristin Stewart's only thirty one, 295 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:44,920 Speaker 4: so she fits into the principle of both historical figure 296 00:14:45,400 --> 00:14:48,040 Speaker 4: and under the age of thirty five or over the 297 00:14:48,080 --> 00:14:51,600 Speaker 4: age of sixty. I've wondered this entire time since I 298 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:54,760 Speaker 4: saw Spencer, why Stewart isn't getting more love. I think 299 00:14:54,760 --> 00:14:58,119 Speaker 4: there's just some hatred out there for her because of Twilight. 300 00:14:58,560 --> 00:15:01,800 Speaker 4: But she's fantastic, insists by Anna and Spencer, and very 301 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:05,560 Speaker 4: deserving of this award, and given the anything can happen 302 00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:08,960 Speaker 4: or around this award, I think plus five hundred is 303 00:15:09,160 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 4: too good to pass. 304 00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:13,960 Speaker 3: Up for I'll disagree with Colin in terms of why 305 00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:16,600 Speaker 3: I think Christen Stewart hasn't gotten as much buzz for 306 00:15:16,640 --> 00:15:18,480 Speaker 3: this award. I think it has less to do with 307 00:15:18,560 --> 00:15:22,200 Speaker 3: Twilight and more to do with Spencer being a little 308 00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:24,880 Speaker 3: bit controversial in terms of how it was received by folks. 309 00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:29,040 Speaker 3: Maybe not controversial, but polarizing. People either really liked it, 310 00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:32,240 Speaker 3: likely because you already liked the Royal family, or you 311 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 3: were unlikely to even see it in the first place. 312 00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:37,080 Speaker 3: But I do agree with Colin that I do think 313 00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:40,200 Speaker 3: four of these five actresses could viably win on Sunday, 314 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:42,960 Speaker 3: So I'm going to take my chances with Nicole Kidman. 315 00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:45,960 Speaker 3: Given the fact that Jessica Chastain's odds are now at 316 00:15:46,040 --> 00:15:49,960 Speaker 3: minus money. Nicole Kidman does check that same historical figure box, 317 00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:53,440 Speaker 3: obviously having played luci Ole Ball and being Ricardo's at 318 00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:56,200 Speaker 3: fifty four. As Colin mentioned, she does fall into that 319 00:15:56,680 --> 00:16:01,480 Speaker 3: unlikely category for age, but christ and Stewart. My argument 320 00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:03,560 Speaker 3: against her is that she's young enough and we'll have 321 00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:06,720 Speaker 3: chances later down the road in bigger films that more 322 00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 3: of the academy will have seen and love, and Nicole 323 00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:13,160 Speaker 3: Kidman hasn't won this award since two thousand and two 324 00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 3: when she portrayed Virginia Wolf in the Hours. So you know, 325 00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:20,040 Speaker 3: given how wide open it is, I like the value 326 00:16:20,080 --> 00:16:21,680 Speaker 3: on Kidman at plus money. 327 00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:24,880 Speaker 1: I said, I'm sitting this one out. I'm TV chas 328 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:27,480 Speaker 1: stain even at the at the current numbers. 329 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:28,960 Speaker 2: But I will say this, I. 330 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:32,440 Speaker 1: Cannot believe we had a debate about best Actress and 331 00:16:32,520 --> 00:16:35,640 Speaker 1: neither of you are picking Olivia Colevian. 332 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:37,920 Speaker 2: We know that the Academy loves Olivia. 333 00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:40,320 Speaker 1: Cole Guys, you guys are gonna have to do get 334 00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:43,080 Speaker 1: out with my boy Colin Wilson because he loves COVID. 335 00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 1: Ryan McKee loves because so it's it's it's so wide open. 336 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:49,520 Speaker 2: This is another great category to bet though. 337 00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:52,880 Speaker 4: All right, let's just for Penelope Cruise. I'll think justice. 338 00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:55,480 Speaker 4: She deserves more love. See Parallel Mothers. 339 00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:55,920 Speaker 2: It's great. 340 00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:05,399 Speaker 1: Okay, let's talk original screenplay. This is another one where Colin, 341 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:09,280 Speaker 1: you and Katie have a bet here. So Katie, watch 342 00:17:09,280 --> 00:17:11,240 Speaker 1: your start us off. What are you looking at for 343 00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:12,960 Speaker 1: best Original Screenplay? 344 00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:16,720 Speaker 3: I am looking at Belfast. This is another one of 345 00:17:16,760 --> 00:17:20,760 Speaker 3: those races, along with adapted screenplay, that feels open enough 346 00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:23,640 Speaker 3: that taking a shot with a film that's not favored 347 00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:27,520 Speaker 3: is worth it. Belfast won the critics choice Lecurice Pizza 348 00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:30,480 Speaker 3: one the BAFTA, then Don't Look Up one the WGA. 349 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:34,400 Speaker 3: But Belfast wasn't eligible for the WGA. All of which 350 00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:37,960 Speaker 3: to say, or to illustrate how open this is. Belfast 351 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:41,199 Speaker 3: emerged early on as a favorite for a Best Picture. 352 00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:43,960 Speaker 3: It's lost a lot of steam since then. But it 353 00:17:44,080 --> 00:17:47,399 Speaker 3: is the only Best Picture, rather the only of the 354 00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:52,720 Speaker 3: three Best Picture heavy contenders in this Original Screenplay category, 355 00:17:53,040 --> 00:17:55,440 Speaker 3: And so I'm thinking that this could be the way 356 00:17:55,440 --> 00:17:58,159 Speaker 3: the Academy tries to award Belfast, and this is the 357 00:17:58,200 --> 00:17:59,760 Speaker 3: most likely award I see it winning. 358 00:18:01,080 --> 00:18:04,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't hate the Belfast pick. It's interesting given 359 00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:06,000 Speaker 2: the fact that. 360 00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:09,320 Speaker 4: It was ineligible for the WGA's definitely throws a wrench 361 00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:12,960 Speaker 4: into things I'm personally going with don't look up here. 362 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:15,360 Speaker 4: I think that this is the category where they're going 363 00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:18,280 Speaker 4: to choose to award this film. A highly contentious film 364 00:18:18,520 --> 00:18:21,240 Speaker 4: people either loved or hated. I am on the former 365 00:18:21,359 --> 00:18:24,320 Speaker 4: side there, I thought it was fantastic. Like you mentioned, 366 00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:28,160 Speaker 4: Belfast wasn't eligible of the WGA's. The WGAS gave their 367 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:31,320 Speaker 4: award to Don't Look Up and the Bath isn't with 368 00:18:31,359 --> 00:18:34,720 Speaker 4: Licorice Pizza, and those two awards are basically split in 369 00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:37,959 Speaker 4: predictability of Oscar success. Since two thousand, the WGA has 370 00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:40,119 Speaker 4: been correct fourteen times and the BATH has been correct 371 00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:44,240 Speaker 4: thirteen times. Eight times they've agreed and been right. Once 372 00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:46,600 Speaker 4: they've agreed and been wrong, that was bird Man over 373 00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:49,080 Speaker 4: Grand Budapest Hotel in twenty fourteen, and once they have 374 00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:52,000 Speaker 4: disagreed and still been wrong, which was Green Book over 375 00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:53,880 Speaker 4: eighth Grade and the Favorite in twenty eighteen. 376 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:57,040 Speaker 2: While they disagree when they disagree. 377 00:18:56,600 --> 00:18:59,880 Speaker 4: And one is right, however, the WGA holds a slight edge, 378 00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:03,040 Speaker 4: directly predicting the Academy awards six times to the Bathtist five. 379 00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:05,359 Speaker 4: The last time that happened was in twenty seventeen, when 380 00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:08,760 Speaker 4: the Baftist went with three billboards outside atting, Missouri. The 381 00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:12,600 Speaker 4: Oscar went to WGA Choice get Out. So the value here, 382 00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:15,440 Speaker 4: I think is on Don't Look Up at plus four ten. 383 00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:18,600 Speaker 4: A lot of betters and the odds makers see it 384 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:21,440 Speaker 4: as close to a coin flip between Liquorice Pizza and Belfast, 385 00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:24,440 Speaker 4: and I understand why, but I think there's enough value 386 00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:26,439 Speaker 4: on Don't Look Up at plus four ten that I'm 387 00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:27,760 Speaker 4: going to make that my choice here. 388 00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:31,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, this is going to be an interesting one. Personally, 389 00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:34,520 Speaker 1: I enjoyed Liquorage Pizza a lot more. But I also 390 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:38,359 Speaker 1: know there's a lot of controversy surrounded that movie. Without 391 00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:42,560 Speaker 1: spoiling it, just some weird things that happened near the 392 00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:45,159 Speaker 1: end of that movie, So that could be why it's 393 00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:46,960 Speaker 1: kind of weakened. And this is another one of those 394 00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:50,080 Speaker 1: wide open categories. But I want to close it out 395 00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:53,679 Speaker 1: with there's two categories where and we could kind of 396 00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:56,320 Speaker 1: jump lump these into one and talk about them together, 397 00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:02,920 Speaker 1: because I know you both have on each it's Child 398 00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:07,040 Speaker 1: to Death Adults or CODA versus Power the Dog, and 399 00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:12,600 Speaker 1: I think best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay I either 400 00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:14,400 Speaker 1: could win, and they're both kind of duking it out 401 00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:17,480 Speaker 1: right now. So Colin, I'll start with you. Just talk 402 00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:22,399 Speaker 1: about what you're doing for in kind of differentiating between 403 00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:25,440 Speaker 1: these two movies. Sure, for adapted screenplay, I think it's 404 00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:29,480 Speaker 1: pretty clear cut. For CODA here, the WGA's and the Bathtas, 405 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:34,399 Speaker 1: we're in agreement on CODA. There's only been one time 406 00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:38,480 Speaker 1: since two thousand, that those two awards agreed and that 407 00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:41,240 Speaker 1: film didn't win the Oscar. That was two thousand and 408 00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:43,320 Speaker 1: nine when Precious beat up in the air, and that's 409 00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:46,199 Speaker 1: considered one of the bigger upsets in recent Oscar history. 410 00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:50,399 Speaker 1: So I think Coda at minus one forty is incredible value. 411 00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:52,800 Speaker 1: It's the one time on the show you're actually seeing 412 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:56,000 Speaker 1: me pick a favorite, just because I feel that strongly 413 00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:56,359 Speaker 1: about it. 414 00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:58,240 Speaker 2: I think that when those two awards. 415 00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:02,240 Speaker 4: Are in agreement, it's it's a shoe in that movie 416 00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:04,879 Speaker 4: is going to win Best Picture. I'm going with Coded 417 00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:07,720 Speaker 4: just I can't ignore the steam. You know, when these 418 00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:10,119 Speaker 4: nominations first came out, Coda was sitting in the plus 419 00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:13,000 Speaker 4: two thousand to plus three thousand range. You're sitting there 420 00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:14,920 Speaker 4: looking at the long chat and you're like, which film 421 00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:17,320 Speaker 4: is going to steam in the six weeks leading up 422 00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:20,399 Speaker 4: to the show. And my guest for that was the 423 00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:22,960 Speaker 4: Chrish Pizza. I wish I had jumped on Coda earlier, 424 00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:25,520 Speaker 4: because now we're seeing it at plus one oh five. 425 00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:27,080 Speaker 4: I think I think we might even see it a 426 00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:31,320 Speaker 4: minus number by the time showtime hits. And I can't 427 00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:33,280 Speaker 4: ignore it. Power of the Dogs been the favorite the 428 00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:35,160 Speaker 4: entire time. Power of the Dog's been the favorite since 429 00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:39,800 Speaker 4: probably January, but we see these films get steamed all 430 00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:43,320 Speaker 4: the time. The freight Train is too good to pass up. 431 00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:46,320 Speaker 4: The Producers Guild gave it an award and it boosted again, 432 00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:48,359 Speaker 4: I think from Sunday to Monday, from plus four hundred 433 00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:51,840 Speaker 4: to like plus one ten. The SAgs also gave it 434 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 4: its top prize SAgs and do a Best Picture, but 435 00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:57,639 Speaker 4: it's best ensemble cast. So Code is my pick. I 436 00:21:57,680 --> 00:21:59,800 Speaker 4: think if if you can find CODA with a plus 437 00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:02,600 Speaker 4: in front of its number, you're getting good value. 438 00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:06,840 Speaker 3: So the one renkle In Collins case for CODA for 439 00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:09,960 Speaker 3: adapted screenplay is the fact that Power of the Dog 440 00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:14,840 Speaker 3: wasn't eligible for the WGA. So my pick for adapted 441 00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:17,560 Speaker 3: screenplay is on Power of the Dog, although it's really 442 00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:20,760 Speaker 3: against CODA given the fact that we can still get 443 00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:23,280 Speaker 3: Power of the Dog at plus one point thirty. Also, 444 00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:25,919 Speaker 3: screenplay is just so core to the success of this 445 00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:30,560 Speaker 3: movie that I can see it definitely perhaps upsetting CODA. 446 00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:33,520 Speaker 3: As for a Best Picture, I am also going with 447 00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:37,400 Speaker 3: Power of the Dog. Per benz Osmer's oscar metrics, which 448 00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:41,439 Speaker 3: we have been citing indirectly throughout this podcast. Since nineteen 449 00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:44,439 Speaker 3: eighty one, there has been only one Best Picture winner 450 00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:48,480 Speaker 3: without a film editing nomination, and there have only been 451 00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:52,240 Speaker 3: five Best Picture winners without a directing nomination, which does 452 00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:56,400 Speaker 3: include Green Book only three years ago. But working against 453 00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:59,680 Speaker 3: CODA is the fact that it has neither Power of 454 00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:03,240 Speaker 3: the Dog does have editing and directing nominations. It also 455 00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:07,000 Speaker 3: has nominations in eight other categories, where as CODA only 456 00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:10,760 Speaker 3: has three. So I will be likely splitting my bet 457 00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:14,560 Speaker 3: between Power of the Dog and Belfast as again a 458 00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:15,400 Speaker 3: bet against CODA. 459 00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:15,760 Speaker 2: Wedding. 460 00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:20,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, Katie, I'm kind of with you. You know, I 461 00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:22,680 Speaker 1: sat this category out because I can't consider it best 462 00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:23,600 Speaker 1: bets at this point. 463 00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:24,560 Speaker 2: But I will say this. 464 00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:29,320 Speaker 1: Colin mentioned how there's been a lot of steam on CODA. 465 00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:33,399 Speaker 1: I do think that I'm kind of with you, Colin 466 00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:37,520 Speaker 1: in that by the time Sunday comes around, CODA is 467 00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:39,160 Speaker 1: going to be a favorite, and it's going to be, 468 00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:42,399 Speaker 1: you know, at minus money, and that means Power of 469 00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:45,440 Speaker 1: the Dog is going to be a plus money underdog, 470 00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:48,159 Speaker 1: and That's what I'm looking to do. I'm looking to 471 00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:51,600 Speaker 1: get in Power the Dog for Best Picture at plus money. 472 00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:54,959 Speaker 1: It's already at plus money for screenplay, so you know, 473 00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:57,040 Speaker 1: I don't mind that as well, although I do think 474 00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:59,520 Speaker 1: that is that could be how they kind of givey 475 00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:01,560 Speaker 1: it up, and you know, because obviously there's a lot 476 00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:04,160 Speaker 1: of love for Coda, But that's what I'm really looking for, 477 00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:07,439 Speaker 1: is Power the Dog at plus money for Best Picture. 478 00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:10,720 Speaker 1: And I'll qulose with this, you know, gold Derby. You know, 479 00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:15,280 Speaker 1: since twenty sixteen, five of the six their number two 480 00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:18,600 Speaker 1: choice has actually won it, and this year that's part 481 00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:20,359 Speaker 1: of the dog because they're all kind of switching to 482 00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:24,760 Speaker 1: Coda wait in the game. So quite an interesting race 483 00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:29,520 Speaker 1: here for Best Picture and Screenplay between Coda and Power 484 00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:33,120 Speaker 1: the Dog. That is gonna do it for our Oscars 485 00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:36,240 Speaker 1: twenty two Best Bets podcast here at the Action Network, 486 00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:38,520 Speaker 1: I am Chris Raymond. You can find me on Twitter 487 00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:41,760 Speaker 1: at Chris raybond r A Y b O N. You 488 00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:45,199 Speaker 1: can find Colin on Twitter at COEO wit Church, and 489 00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:45,679 Speaker 1: you can. 490 00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:48,520 Speaker 2: Find Katie at Katie s rich Creek. 491 00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:52,400 Speaker 1: Be sure to check out actionnetwork dot com for all 492 00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:56,040 Speaker 1: of our Oscars and other gambling content, and be sure 493 00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:59,879 Speaker 1: to check out our Academy Awards preview podcasts where we 494 00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:05,240 Speaker 1: over the eight major categories. Good luck this Sunday, Let's 495 00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:09,960 Speaker 1: get this Smike, all right, You've really made. 496 00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:12,840 Speaker 2: This a night to remember it every way. Now, let's 497 00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:14,000 Speaker 2: go party till dawn.