Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2: A single best idea on a Monday where we're waiting
Speaker 2: for comments from the White House on the back and
Speaker 2: forth that we've seen back and forth over the last
Speaker 2: four or five six days. Part of that conversation is
Speaker 2: Anne Marie Horden and Buenos Aires with a Secretary of Treasury.
Speaker 2: He looked for that this afternoon. I guess late this afternoon,
Speaker 2: I should say that'll be an important conversation. To say
Speaker 2: the least. We emphasized early on this morning the efficacy
Speaker 2: of a sixty to forty portfolio. Torsten slock out with
Speaker 2: a brilliant note from Apollo on that we were advantaged
Speaker 2: by Steve chiverone federated MS and all the work they
Speaker 2: do in equities. He was really, really quite good Chivaron.
Speaker 1: On the moment we saw the twelfth worst four day
Speaker 1: stretch in the history of the SMP last week, Well,
Speaker 1: what are the forward What's history tell you? History tells
Speaker 1: you that twelve months later your higher thirty percent. History
Speaker 1: tells you that in the prior eleven decline higher.
Speaker 2: Thirty percent of the time, no or a lift of
Speaker 2: thirty percent.
Speaker 1: You are positive one hundred percent of the time in
Speaker 1: the last eleven instances of a four day decline like that,
Speaker 1: and your average return over the twelve months is thirty percent. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and that's that's the story. Politics, tariff noise. Sure they're important,
Speaker 1: Sure they're going to impact earnings. Sure you need to
Speaker 1: be thoughtful about them. But the story is is the
Speaker 1: line goes up into the right companies adapt the economy
Speaker 1: continues to grow. We are the center of innovation. We
Speaker 1: still have working age population growth in the United States,
Speaker 1: which is unique in the developed world. And if you
Speaker 1: can stay calm, what you realize is that you've gotten
Speaker 1: a lot of pretty good value opportunities over the last
Speaker 1: week to two weeks, and you need to take advantage
Speaker 1: of those and upgrade your portfolio.
Speaker 2: See Chivarona federated there with optimism on staying the course
Speaker 2: in the equity markets. The Laurie Calvasina of RBC Capital Markets,
Speaker 2: like all of us squeezing eight days into a seven
Speaker 2: day work week. I can tell you this weekend for
Speaker 2: me and the team was really quite extraordinary. It was
Speaker 2: literally just NonStop. I'm still in that mode or I'm
Speaker 2: afraid to look at my cell phone to see what's
Speaker 2: going on, Luri Calvisina. It's harder for her. She has
Speaker 2: to publish, she has to publish on Friday, then republish,
Speaker 2: the publish on Saturday, etc. Onto Sunday and Monday. Lorii
Speaker 2: Calvisina of RBC Capital Markets. On the path forward, I will.
Speaker 3: Say, if we're thinking short term long term, if you
Speaker 3: go back to twenty eighteen, companies didn't really raise the
Speaker 3: alarm bell on tariffs until like September in that conference season,
Speaker 3: before the earnings reporting season, kind of post labor Day,
Speaker 3: So it may take some time to see the residual
Speaker 3: impacts we are seeing in company momentary indications of tariff
Speaker 3: pre bine. We saw one of the banks call that
Speaker 3: out and also, you know, and some of my clients
Speaker 3: I met with last week also clued me in on this.
Speaker 3: But the idea of managing your inventories and pulling forward
Speaker 3: some of that inventory, I would you know, we called
Speaker 3: this earning season in our latest weekly as potentially like
Speaker 3: a box of chocolates. We don't know exactly what we're
Speaker 3: going to get. We could get some good ones.
Speaker 2: Lori Kealvesina of RBC Capital Markets. I want to point
Speaker 2: out one thing today where I believe I can say
Speaker 2: I've never seen this before. The single headline from Goldman
Speaker 2: Sachs that they will initiate some form of share buy
Speaker 2: back of forty billion dollars. When I saw it, I
Speaker 2: thought it was a typo. I literally thought it was
Speaker 2: four billion, and somebody at Bloomberg messed up. Not that
Speaker 2: I've ever done that, but the answer is forty billion
Speaker 2: is twenty five point two percent of Goldman Sachs' market cap.
Speaker 2: I think I've never seen that before. And your commute
Speaker 2: across the country. Thank you for listening to us, particularly
Speaker 2: ninety two nine FM in Boston, Bloomberg eleven three h
Speaker 2: in New York, and particularly ninety ninety one in Washington.
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