1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:11,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:19,800 Speaker 2: A single best idea on a Monday where we're waiting 3 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:22,880 Speaker 2: for comments from the White House on the back and 4 00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:25,759 Speaker 2: forth that we've seen back and forth over the last 5 00:00:25,800 --> 00:00:29,120 Speaker 2: four or five six days. Part of that conversation is 6 00:00:29,120 --> 00:00:33,000 Speaker 2: Anne Marie Horden and Buenos Aires with a Secretary of Treasury. 7 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:36,440 Speaker 2: He looked for that this afternoon. I guess late this afternoon, 8 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:39,960 Speaker 2: I should say that'll be an important conversation. To say 9 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:44,600 Speaker 2: the least. We emphasized early on this morning the efficacy 10 00:00:44,680 --> 00:00:47,400 Speaker 2: of a sixty to forty portfolio. Torsten slock out with 11 00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 2: a brilliant note from Apollo on that we were advantaged 12 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:56,400 Speaker 2: by Steve chiverone federated MS and all the work they 13 00:00:56,440 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 2: do in equities. He was really, really quite good Chivaron. 14 00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 1: On the moment we saw the twelfth worst four day 15 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 1: stretch in the history of the SMP last week, Well, 16 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:10,240 Speaker 1: what are the forward What's history tell you? History tells 17 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:13,399 Speaker 1: you that twelve months later your higher thirty percent. History 18 00:01:13,440 --> 00:01:16,000 Speaker 1: tells you that in the prior eleven decline higher. 19 00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:19,000 Speaker 2: Thirty percent of the time, no or a lift of 20 00:01:19,080 --> 00:01:20,280 Speaker 2: thirty percent. 21 00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:22,840 Speaker 1: You are positive one hundred percent of the time in 22 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:25,600 Speaker 1: the last eleven instances of a four day decline like that, 23 00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:28,960 Speaker 1: and your average return over the twelve months is thirty percent. Yeah, 24 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:34,119 Speaker 1: and that's that's the story. Politics, tariff noise. Sure they're important, 25 00:01:34,240 --> 00:01:36,800 Speaker 1: Sure they're going to impact earnings. Sure you need to 26 00:01:36,840 --> 00:01:39,119 Speaker 1: be thoughtful about them. But the story is is the 27 00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:43,560 Speaker 1: line goes up into the right companies adapt the economy 28 00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:46,520 Speaker 1: continues to grow. We are the center of innovation. We 29 00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:49,400 Speaker 1: still have working age population growth in the United States, 30 00:01:49,440 --> 00:01:52,760 Speaker 1: which is unique in the developed world. And if you 31 00:01:52,840 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 1: can stay calm, what you realize is that you've gotten 32 00:01:55,960 --> 00:01:59,000 Speaker 1: a lot of pretty good value opportunities over the last 33 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:01,000 Speaker 1: week to two weeks, and you need to take advantage 34 00:02:01,040 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 1: of those and upgrade your portfolio. 35 00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:07,480 Speaker 2: See Chivarona federated there with optimism on staying the course 36 00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 2: in the equity markets. The Laurie Calvasina of RBC Capital Markets, 37 00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:16,320 Speaker 2: like all of us squeezing eight days into a seven 38 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:19,080 Speaker 2: day work week. I can tell you this weekend for 39 00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:22,000 Speaker 2: me and the team was really quite extraordinary. It was 40 00:02:22,120 --> 00:02:25,560 Speaker 2: literally just NonStop. I'm still in that mode or I'm 41 00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 2: afraid to look at my cell phone to see what's 42 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:31,400 Speaker 2: going on, Luri Calvisina. It's harder for her. She has 43 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 2: to publish, she has to publish on Friday, then republish, 44 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 2: the publish on Saturday, etc. Onto Sunday and Monday. Lorii 45 00:02:39,760 --> 00:02:44,560 Speaker 2: Calvisina of RBC Capital Markets. On the path forward, I will. 46 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:46,520 Speaker 3: Say, if we're thinking short term long term, if you 47 00:02:46,560 --> 00:02:49,080 Speaker 3: go back to twenty eighteen, companies didn't really raise the 48 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:52,520 Speaker 3: alarm bell on tariffs until like September in that conference season, 49 00:02:52,560 --> 00:02:55,160 Speaker 3: before the earnings reporting season, kind of post labor Day, 50 00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:57,560 Speaker 3: So it may take some time to see the residual 51 00:02:57,600 --> 00:03:01,920 Speaker 3: impacts we are seeing in company momentary indications of tariff 52 00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:04,519 Speaker 3: pre bine. We saw one of the banks call that 53 00:03:04,600 --> 00:03:07,519 Speaker 3: out and also, you know, and some of my clients 54 00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:09,560 Speaker 3: I met with last week also clued me in on this. 55 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:12,480 Speaker 3: But the idea of managing your inventories and pulling forward 56 00:03:12,560 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 3: some of that inventory, I would you know, we called 57 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:18,080 Speaker 3: this earning season in our latest weekly as potentially like 58 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:20,079 Speaker 3: a box of chocolates. We don't know exactly what we're 59 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:21,960 Speaker 3: going to get. We could get some good ones. 60 00:03:22,639 --> 00:03:25,960 Speaker 2: Lori Kealvesina of RBC Capital Markets. I want to point 61 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 2: out one thing today where I believe I can say 62 00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:33,120 Speaker 2: I've never seen this before. The single headline from Goldman 63 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:37,480 Speaker 2: Sachs that they will initiate some form of share buy 64 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 2: back of forty billion dollars. When I saw it, I 65 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:45,120 Speaker 2: thought it was a typo. I literally thought it was 66 00:03:45,160 --> 00:03:48,000 Speaker 2: four billion, and somebody at Bloomberg messed up. Not that 67 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:51,360 Speaker 2: I've ever done that, but the answer is forty billion 68 00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:55,360 Speaker 2: is twenty five point two percent of Goldman Sachs' market cap. 69 00:03:56,280 --> 00:03:59,440 Speaker 2: I think I've never seen that before. And your commute 70 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:02,800 Speaker 2: across the country. Thank you for listening to us, particularly 71 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:06,200 Speaker 2: ninety two nine FM in Boston, Bloomberg eleven three h 72 00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 2: in New York, and particularly ninety ninety one in Washington. 73 00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 2: On YouTube, We're out of Bloomberg podcasts. Subscribe growing each 74 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:17,600 Speaker 2: and every day. Thank you so much for that worldwide 75 00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:21,120 Speaker 2: featured Shanghai and Hong Kong today. Thank you for listening 76 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:34,400 Speaker 2: in China and on YouTube podcasts. This is single best idea.