Speaker 1: What is up, Dolphans And welcome to the Draft Time Podcast.
Speaker 1: I am your host, Travis Wingfield. And on today's show,
Speaker 1: we wrap up Prospect Profile series with Michigan cornerback Will Johnson.
Speaker 1: Will break down the usage of the safety in this
Speaker 1: defensive system across the NFL. We explore some draft trends,
Speaker 1: some trade back cost option, some positional gluts, and a
Speaker 1: heck of a lot more from the Baptist Health Studios
Speaker 1: inside the Baptist Health Training Complex.
Speaker 2: This is the Draft Time Podcast.
Speaker 1: We don't talk about ten, right Ten is Bruno's That's
Speaker 1: the rule here on the podcast.
Speaker 2: I'm over it. That's all I'm gonna say about it.
Speaker 1: Before we dive into our final I swear our final
Speaker 1: prospect profile deep dive. I wanted to do a quick
Speaker 1: exploration akin to the one we did on the defensive
Speaker 1: tackle Snaps a week or two ago. You guys responded
Speaker 1: pretty positively to that podcast, so I thought this to
Speaker 1: go ahead and do it again with another position group
Speaker 1: that has a lack of clarity at it right now
Speaker 1: in terms of who might be on the field for
Speaker 1: those snaps, and we discussed on the Monday podcast. I
Speaker 1: think it was Monday. The safety position is interesting in
Speaker 1: that you don't really have anybody has started for an
Speaker 1: entire season really in the room.
Speaker 2: I mean you have.
Speaker 1: I wrote down four, but I would call it three
Speaker 1: potential guys that could assume a role as such, and
Speaker 1: that does create a fun camp competition. But when you
Speaker 1: think about it from a deployment standpoint and the ever
Speaker 1: shifting landscape of defensive football in twenty twenty five, maybe
Speaker 1: we aren't looking at it.
Speaker 2: The way we should be.
Speaker 1: That was the hypothesis on the defensive tackle position, and
Speaker 1: we confirmed it by demonstrating how those other teams, the Ravens,
Speaker 1: the Titans, and the Seahawks deployed their interior defensive line
Speaker 1: snap counts and how many you had to find to
Speaker 1: round out your roster to get yourself ready to play
Speaker 1: a seasons on. The safety position is not nearly as strong. However,
Speaker 1: I think the makeup of the cornerback group currently and
Speaker 1: what could be added to it here in the next
Speaker 1: couple of weeks, and you know, again could be confirmed
Speaker 1: really if you get Texas's Jadea Baron because of his
Speaker 1: ability to play in the intermediate as well as our
Speaker 1: penchant to invert coverage with versatile receivers. I don't think
Speaker 1: it's nearly as stark as the ability to round out
Speaker 1: the defensive line reps with more edges and backers. But
Speaker 1: we can take a look at the trends of those
Speaker 1: same teams we explored in the defensive tackle thing and
Speaker 1: tell you what you can expect in terms of who
Speaker 1: will play how many snaps this year at the safety position.
Speaker 1: So the Dolphins last year, for instance, I went into
Speaker 1: this not having had a hypothesis, but I didn't have
Speaker 1: I didn't know what the snap counts were for these
Speaker 1: four teams. So Jordan Poyer last year played nine hundred
Speaker 1: and sixty four snaps, Javon Holland played eight fifty four,
Speaker 1: Marcus May played two ninety three, Elijah Campbell's seventy six.
Speaker 1: Patrick McMorris played eight snaps. So you had three safeties
Speaker 1: on the field two point seven percent of the time.
Speaker 2: And remember May was released in season.
Speaker 1: Holland and Ployer both missed some games or I think
Speaker 1: Poyer missed one game, right, and we were a two
Speaker 1: safety defense. We had one thousand, sixty four snaps last
Speaker 1: year as a defense. Multiplied that by two and you
Speaker 1: get twenty one to twenty eight, twenty one hundred and
Speaker 1: twenty eight reps and we had twenty one eighty seven
Speaker 1: snaps played by safeties. I think that that right there
Speaker 1: can be instructive because of what we talked about with
Speaker 1: the cornerback usage. You used to have to think of
Speaker 1: it as you need three safeties to play regular time
Speaker 1: without injuries. And that was the case when we had
Speaker 1: like Eric Rode down here, right, he was a big
Speaker 1: nickel a lot of those packages. I Meanka Fitzpatrick was
Speaker 1: a big nickel here his rookie season. But we only
Speaker 1: called upon that big nickel package last year, which is
Speaker 1: three safeties two cornerbacks opposed to three corners two safeties.
Speaker 1: Just a handful of times you go up north to Baltimore,
Speaker 1: Kyle Hamilton played one thousand and forty four snaps, Darius
Speaker 1: Washington played seven hundred and twenty seven snaps, Marcus Williams,
Speaker 1: who's still out there by the way, played six hundred
Speaker 1: and one snaps, and Eddie Jackson played three thirty nine.
Speaker 1: They also got thirty three snaps out of two youngsters
Speaker 1: who you probably haven't heard of, So for total, that
Speaker 1: was twenty seven hundred forty four snaps for the safeties
Speaker 1: on one thousand, one hundred and thirty two snaps for
Speaker 1: the defense. Multiply that by two and you get twenty
Speaker 1: two hundred sixty four a much much larger use of
Speaker 1: safeties than what we did. Three safeties twenty one point
Speaker 1: two percent of the time.
Speaker 2: That's it.
Speaker 1: That's a big increase. My daughter yesterday told me she
Speaker 1: loves math, which she's four, so you know, go figure
Speaker 1: that one. Like she can she can do some traction,
Speaker 1: which was pretty cool. But like, I don't know where
Speaker 1: she gets it from, because I look at these numbers
Speaker 1: and my brain just kind of like shuts down. But
Speaker 1: twenty one percent compared to three percent, right, So that's
Speaker 1: eighteen percent difference, give or takes some fractions. There, pretty
Speaker 1: big difference between Miami and Baltimore. How about in Tennessee,
Speaker 1: where Amani Hooker played eight hundred and fifty snaps, Daryl
Speaker 1: Worley played four hundred and fifty nine, Quandre Diggs played
Speaker 1: four to nineteen safety. The last name Brown. I didn't
Speaker 1: write his first name down, and I forgot who is
Speaker 1: played three hundred and eighty six snaps and they had
Speaker 1: twenty six snaps to other safeties. So twenty one hundred
Speaker 1: and forty snaps by safeties compared to one thousand and
Speaker 1: fifty eight total snaps. Times that by two, we get
Speaker 1: twenty one sixteen. That's a three safety rate of one
Speaker 1: point one percent of the time, less than half of
Speaker 1: your low figure. For the Miami Dolphins, the Seahawks, Mike McDonald,
Speaker 1: Julian Love played one thousand, seventy nine snaps, ray Sean
Speaker 1: Jenkins played five point fifty. Cavon Wallace played one hundred
Speaker 1: and twenty seven, and they gave forty four snaps to
Speaker 1: other safeties. That's eighteen hundred snaps to safeties compared to
Speaker 1: eleven hundred and thirty snaps total. Times that by two,
Speaker 1: twenty two to sixty, and now we're at a negative number.
Speaker 1: So three safeties at negative twenty one percent at the time.
Speaker 1: That means they're playing a lot of one safety looks
Speaker 1: and they have multiple cornerbacks. Maybe I could have had
Speaker 1: this wrong because they had like Josh job As like
Speaker 1: their fourth or fifth cornerback, and maybe I don't know
Speaker 1: how he was deployed. I know he was a corner
Speaker 1: back with the Packers and in college before that, but
Speaker 1: maybe he played some like safety role, So I could
Speaker 1: be wrong about this, but that's the point, right. The
Speaker 1: whole point is that this is not at all what
Speaker 1: I thought I was going to get before I did
Speaker 1: the Seahawks. I was thinking the answer here is going
Speaker 1: to be, you know, it's a two safety defense unless
Speaker 1: you have Kyle Hamilton because of what he can do
Speaker 1: as a slot, as a processor, a middle of the
Speaker 1: field like linebacker, a guy that can fit the run,
Speaker 1: play the rat in the hole, but also get depth
Speaker 1: in that hook zone and play you know, zone drops
Speaker 1: on defense.
Speaker 2: He can play corner two.
Speaker 1: But then you look at the Seahawks and they have
Speaker 1: three corners play over seven hundred and eighty five snaps
Speaker 1: and their fourth guy played four hundred and forty three snaps.
Speaker 1: So they kind of have the same mold that we
Speaker 1: talked about with the defensive tackle defensive end position where
Speaker 1: they basically eschewed a third safety and sometimes a second safety.
Speaker 2: For more cornerbacks.
Speaker 1: And you look at this Dolphins roster and I can
Speaker 1: tell you right now whether you want to believe it
Speaker 1: or not, like Cam Smith is going to get his
Speaker 1: opportunity to play like they have to make good or
Speaker 1: find out what they have in a former second round
Speaker 1: draft pick who's not been healthy, he's not been on
Speaker 1: the field and like you know, Arty Burns hasn't played
Speaker 1: more than a handful of snap the last six years
Speaker 1: like together. But if he's healthy and he can play
Speaker 1: like I think there's some intrigue about how he can
Speaker 1: play press man and give them of, you know, very
Speaker 1: look from their zone coverages. So I could see a
Speaker 1: situation where you do draft a cornerback in the first
Speaker 1: round and then you've got Cam Smith and you've got
Speaker 1: Arty Burns and you've got Storm Duck and you're rolling out,
Speaker 1: you know, five defensive backs with maybe maybe four more
Speaker 1: cornerbacks and maybe Efatu Melafon lose the one safety on
Speaker 1: the field.
Speaker 2: We'll see.
Speaker 1: I don't know, but the takeaway here is that there's
Speaker 1: no one way to do it. If you have that
Speaker 1: matchup chess piece and if he can be that, but
Speaker 1: so too could Nicky Man worry for in the draft
Speaker 1: for that for instance, then you call upon more of
Speaker 1: those three safety looks. Or if you get a Malachi Starks,
Speaker 1: you could probably roll with more cornerbacks because of his
Speaker 1: range of responsibilities and how much he can do in
Speaker 1: terms of just being in multiple spots because he's such
Speaker 1: a heady football player. To me, it's really fascinating. Maybe
Speaker 1: it's not to you guys, but I have the microphone,
Speaker 1: so you will listen to every damn word. I have
Speaker 1: to say. I suspect that we'd see at least one
Speaker 1: safety added between now in July. But either way, again,
Speaker 1: like this is a tangent aside. I keep seeing, you know, oh,
Speaker 1: the Dolphins have x amountal holes and they only have
Speaker 1: ten draft picks. Like, dude, they added to Marcus May
Speaker 1: last summer. Kalaias Campbell was a massive boon last summer.
Speaker 1: Like teams add players later in the year all the time.
Speaker 1: It's not like it used to be. You can find
Speaker 1: guys in July and in August like it happens, and
Speaker 1: you can trade your guys too. But we'll see what
Speaker 1: happens down the road and all that. And we have
Speaker 1: a nice pool of draft picks next year to you know,
Speaker 1: select from if you want to add a veteran presence
Speaker 1: to what is now the seventh youngest roster in the
Speaker 1: NFL before the draft, and ten picks, So I think
Speaker 1: that you might be able to be in a position
Speaker 1: where you can say, hey, we've done a good job
Speaker 1: of cultivating young developmental talent. Let's go find a starter
Speaker 1: on the market who's out there for a Day three
Speaker 1: draft pick. Like it happens sometimes, So I don't know,
Speaker 1: we'll see between now and when that happens. I think
Speaker 1: you can let the performance shape the way you call
Speaker 1: it in terms of who gets playing time with what
Speaker 1: you currently have. But I do expect that to be
Speaker 1: disrupted by additions in the defensive backfield. There's just there's
Speaker 1: no way. There's no way they're done in the defensive backfield. Okay, quick,
Speaker 1: first segment. Let's go ahead and take a pause right
Speaker 1: there and come back for our last prospect profile we're
Speaker 1: doing here. It's Michigan's Will Johnson. That's Next Draft Time podcast,
Speaker 1: brought to you by AutoNation.
Speaker 2: I would let to buy a bag.
Speaker 1: It is Masters week. It is actually Thursday. As I
Speaker 1: record this podcast. Scottie Scheffler and Colin Morrikwa just teed
Speaker 1: off And the reason I run that sound drop from
Speaker 1: the Pink Panther in the Great Steve Martin is that
Speaker 1: my pick for the Masters is Ludwig albelg And every
Speaker 1: time I think of Ludwig Albalg, all I can think
Speaker 1: about is Dann Balgo. So that's my pick. Who do
Speaker 1: you guys got for the Masters this week? Is there
Speaker 1: anything better than being out on that golf course? I
Speaker 1: never have, but it looks just fantastic. I would love
Speaker 1: to go out there. Maybe you get a couple of
Speaker 1: a couple of pops, maybe a couple of gummies, and
Speaker 1: have yourself a good time out there. Let's go ahead
Speaker 1: and get into a prospect profile here. The final one
Speaker 1: cornerback Will Johnson. You're probably saying to yourself, pay Travis,
Speaker 1: how come you haven't done any offensive lineman. Well, I'll
Speaker 1: tell you why, because all these mock drafts that you're
Speaker 1: seeing and talking about Kelvin Banks and the Dolphins have
Speaker 1: to get a left tackle. If you think the Dolphins
Speaker 1: are going to take a left tackle and put Patrick
Speaker 1: Paul on the bench, you don't know what's going on.
Speaker 1: I saw, you know, I've had guests in the show.
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna call him out by name because that's not.
Speaker 2: What we do here, but we uh.
Speaker 1: I saw some people say like the Dolphins are a
Speaker 1: sure bet to take a left tackle. Now, it's like, brother,
Speaker 1: you know, I appreciate how tough the national job is,
Speaker 1: but like you ain't paying attention dog because they're not
Speaker 1: gonna They're not gonna do that. They're not gonna move
Speaker 1: Patrick Paul left tackle spot is his. So that's why
Speaker 1: I'm not covering it right here. Maybe later on in
Speaker 1: the draft you talk about a potential tackle who converts
Speaker 1: inside the guard, but it's not gonna happen in the
Speaker 1: first round. So that's why I wanted to keep my
Speaker 1: focus here on the premium positions and why this guy,
Speaker 1: to me, makes a ton of sense if he is there.
Speaker 1: Will Johnson number two from Michigan, who played in just
Speaker 1: six games this past season, and there are a couple
Speaker 1: of tapes Washington and Illinois where you can tell he
Speaker 1: was fighting through what was described as an incredibly painful
Speaker 1: turf toe injury and he actually had a shoulder injury too,
Speaker 1: And I saw a clip of someone putting together all
Speaker 1: of his mistackles, like and you know, you can say, like, hey,
Speaker 1: get off the field if this is the case, but
Speaker 1: you could tell like he wasn't about to put that
Speaker 1: shoulder onto ball carriers in space, and it made for
Speaker 1: some bad tape. Now, he didn't work out in Indie
Speaker 1: and he was he missed the Michigan Pro Day, but
Speaker 1: he will hold a private workout next week in an
Speaker 1: arbor for scouts. He is a fascinating study to me
Speaker 1: because you know, I thought it was worth mentioning that
Speaker 1: because in twenty twenty three, the tape was you can
Speaker 1: see a guy that was being talked about as possibly
Speaker 1: the best player in the class, Like he was up
Speaker 1: there around like Travis Hunter and Abdul carter back when
Speaker 1: the season was going on. And I feel like the
Speaker 1: biggest flag is the fact that it's not the toe
Speaker 1: injury that held him out from workouts, but because he
Speaker 1: wasn't running for months after the injury, he pushed it
Speaker 1: coming back and wound up suffering a hamstring injury. He
Speaker 1: missed the game with a shoulder injury. So he kind
Speaker 1: of had this like Tron Armstead run of injuries last year,
Speaker 1: which I know is going to scare any Dolphins fan
Speaker 1: and it probably should a little bit.
Speaker 2: But that's kind of where the knock is with him.
Speaker 1: But I think that when you watch his play style, man,
Speaker 1: I've been using these like descriptors or monikers here for
Speaker 1: these you know traits I want to discuss on the players.
Speaker 1: And when I titled this one for Will Johnson as
Speaker 1: successful gambler with sown feel and eyes, I think the
Speaker 1: strength of his game is evident through the interception and
Speaker 1: pass breakup numbers. I cannot remember seeing a player with
Speaker 1: this statistical anomaly, not one that has played more than
Speaker 1: a thousand snaps one hundred and thirteen targets nine interceptions
Speaker 1: compared to just eight pass breakups. Like that's who has
Speaker 1: more picks than pass breakups. But I would avoid him
Speaker 1: too when he's picking off eight percent of your targets
Speaker 1: toward him, I mean you'd have to hit like thirty
Speaker 1: or forty yard plays on the ones you complete to
Speaker 1: justify the risk and reward. Like if we're gonna target
Speaker 1: Will Johnson ten times in the game, he's gonna pick
Speaker 1: off one. We better get one hundred plus yards out
Speaker 1: of the others, otherwise it's a net loss for us.
Speaker 1: His numbers are crazy. He's six foot two, one hundred
Speaker 1: and ninety five pounds. He has not allowed a touchdown
Speaker 1: and coverage since twenty twenty two. He had thirty six
Speaker 1: point seven passer rating allowed over the last two seasons,
Speaker 1: and I have to apologize because I slept too much
Speaker 1: throughout the process. This guy should not be on the
Speaker 1: board when the Miami Dolphins make their pick, and if
Speaker 1: he is, it's because of injuries last season.
Speaker 2: But I think that it was just one of those.
Speaker 1: Murphy's Law type of years for he in Michigan where
Speaker 1: it just didn't really go the way you would want to,
Speaker 1: and that can happen in football whole years can get
Speaker 1: away for looking the Dolphins last year. The way he
Speaker 1: can sink his hips and drive out of a back
Speaker 1: pedal is the best in the class. It's better than
Speaker 1: Travis Hunter. He's strong, he has exceptional ball skills, which
Speaker 1: we covered already.
Speaker 2: He can high point in man.
Speaker 1: He can peel off and go impact the catch point
Speaker 1: on somebody else's man. There's a RepA against Washington last
Speaker 1: year where he gets beaten low red zone, but he
Speaker 1: recovers and runs back into phase and lays out just
Speaker 1: trying to put himself in the catch point or in
Speaker 1: the passing lane, and it saves a touchdown. Like he
Speaker 1: has just this innate awareness of spatial surroundings and how
Speaker 1: to impact the receiver near him. He's so aggressive and
Speaker 1: he might get beat because of it a few times
Speaker 1: in the NFL. I mean, every cornerback in the NFL
Speaker 1: gets beat. Just don't have a twenty twenty week two
Speaker 1: Noah Igbinogny day where it seems like that kind of
Speaker 1: killed your confidence for five years. But I think that
Speaker 1: he has the makeup to be able to bounce back
Speaker 1: from that, and the way I watch him recover, or
Speaker 1: just maybe the spirit that he plays with. I don't
Speaker 1: think he's the kind of guy you're gonna have to
Speaker 1: worry about him losing his confidence. I think off coverage, read,
Speaker 1: sink and drive is like his best trade. You know,
Speaker 1: play eight yards off the football and just kind of
Speaker 1: process from there. But I think he absolutely can play man.
Speaker 1: On my first tape watch, I didn't get deep enough
Speaker 1: into that, but studying it deeper, I think it's a
Speaker 1: case of just because he wasn't asked to do it
Speaker 1: doesn't mean that he can't do it. He challenges guys
Speaker 1: with length, I mean terrific, terrific feat and the processing
Speaker 1: is also exceptional. His pick six against the Gophers this year, Minnesota,
Speaker 1: he's playing a three x two where you have two receivers,
Speaker 1: three defensive backs. It's two off corners and safety help
Speaker 1: over the top. Against those two receivers. They run this
Speaker 1: vertical from the one the furthest out receiver, and the
Speaker 1: slot inside the two runs a hitch and he is
Speaker 1: playing on the perimeter. He knows he has that safety help,
Speaker 1: so he can turn that vertical route to the safety
Speaker 1: if he wants to. But you can tell that he
Speaker 1: just knows what the throw is going based upon the
Speaker 1: way he reacts, where he feels the combination coming before
Speaker 1: it happens, and even before the quarterbacks hand separate, he's
Speaker 1: already driving downhill on the hitch.
Speaker 2: He picks it off, he runs it back. He changes
Speaker 2: the game.
Speaker 1: I never feel like he feels he has to cheat
Speaker 1: to make a play, like the anticipation stuff is because
Speaker 1: he trusts what he sees in terms of an opportunity
Speaker 1: to make a play. Like USC game runs this, They
Speaker 1: run this little bluff screen where he's in off coverage
Speaker 1: and he doesn't go flying downhill and like, I have
Speaker 1: to get there now because if I don't move now,
Speaker 1: they're gonna beat me in this you know, short space,
Speaker 1: and I can't make a tackle. But he patiently hangs
Speaker 1: back and takes away the vertical they're trying to hit
Speaker 1: off of the fake screen, and then they do throw
Speaker 1: the check down like the secondary screen almost and he
Speaker 1: comes up in realies and makes that tackle. When you
Speaker 1: have a confident player who trusts his elite skills and
Speaker 1: his elite preparation, man, that's a winning combination, and that
Speaker 1: patience pays off all throughout his tape, whether it's late
Speaker 1: hands to poke the ball free at the catch point
Speaker 1: or when it's time time to you know, elevate and
Speaker 1: time his jump. He is just the best way I
Speaker 1: can put it is he's just smooth man. He's a
Speaker 1: smooth operator. Hands down, best cover of all time by
Speaker 1: the way. Coheden Cambria did a cover of The Trooper
Speaker 1: by Iron Maiden, which is right there, but alien Ant
Speaker 1: Farm takes it. But he's a smooth operator, a smooth criminal.
Speaker 1: His understanding of the relationship of time and space, which
Speaker 1: sounds like so galaxy brained, but like it's just it's
Speaker 1: there for him. It's inherent, like when he can pin
Speaker 1: a perimeter receiver to the sideline and then position himself
Speaker 1: in the only place where the ball can go it's
Speaker 1: just this natural feel for the game that essentially eliminates
Speaker 1: all passing lanes. And I think it's why he gets
Speaker 1: so many picks because he puts the receiver in a
Speaker 1: spot where it's like, if the quarterback is gonna throw
Speaker 1: this ball to him, it has to be in the spot,
Speaker 1: and I'm there to catch it. If it's in that spot.
Speaker 1: He's back downhill on the stem quicker than a hiccup.
Speaker 1: The way he drives out of a back pedal or
Speaker 1: even a still position is the best in the class.
Speaker 2: It's it's like it's like he has springs in his shoes.
Speaker 1: So student of the game, elite physical traits, and an
Speaker 1: undying want to to be great.
Speaker 2: Sign me up for all of the above.
Speaker 1: Speaking of the effort, and again there's you're gonna find
Speaker 1: clips on social media of him like not tackling well
Speaker 1: or maybe not having the best effort. But I went
Speaker 1: back and watched to play and this next category is
Speaker 1: titled effort, physicality, and want to This is the type
Speaker 1: of stuff that gets me jacked up about a prospect.
Speaker 1: And this is a guy that tried to play through
Speaker 1: injuries last year, by the way, but Michigan is losing
Speaker 1: the Texas by eighteen points three touchdowns. Texas runs this
Speaker 1: misdirection with a fake to his side and the receiver
Speaker 1: coming across on an end around. Not only does Johnson
Speaker 1: point out like, hey, it's coming that way. They're gonna
Speaker 1: run this end around. Here comes the receiver. He then
Speaker 1: gets on his horse and saves what would have been
Speaker 1: a fifty eight yard touchdown by making the tackle with
Speaker 1: the five yard line and he came from the opposite
Speaker 1: side of the field like fifty three yards away basically.
Speaker 1: Then I'm looking at his blitz metrics and he just
Speaker 1: doesn't do it. I mean he does, but we're talking
Speaker 1: about eleven pass rush reps out of one thy three
Speaker 1: hundred and seventeen career reps. But then I pull up
Speaker 1: the tape and he has this one rep where he's
Speaker 1: covering a nasty alignment receiver. This is when the receiver
Speaker 1: is within basically arm's length of the tackle. And from
Speaker 1: that position you see Jaylen Ramsey do it all the
Speaker 1: time where he can convert to a blitzer, and he
Speaker 1: does that, and they run a counter running play at
Speaker 1: him which brings the backside guard downhill to him on
Speaker 1: a block and he ghost dips the guard, which is
Speaker 1: basically a pass rush move. You see edges us when
Speaker 1: they think they can just dip under the outside arm
Speaker 1: of the tackle and continue their pursuit of the quarterback.
Speaker 1: And he pursues ball carriers like they stole his grandmother's purse,
Speaker 1: like hey catch that man. The dude just flies all
Speaker 1: over the field. I mean, if he did it in
Speaker 1: that blowout, what does this say about the young man?
Speaker 1: And he tried to play through the turf toe injury,
Speaker 1: his body just would not let him do it. He
Speaker 1: plays one hundred miles per hour against the run from
Speaker 1: zone and from impress I think he can play I
Speaker 1: don't think he can play inside. I think it's probably
Speaker 1: the one thing that deters you from drafting him because
Speaker 1: you kind of need guys that can play all three
Speaker 1: spots here. But I think the fit is a really
Speaker 1: nice compliment to all the pressure packages and sim pressures
Speaker 1: the coach weave runs in terms of how he can
Speaker 1: take care of his job on the back end. If
Speaker 1: you can identify that hot route and clamp it, and
Speaker 1: the quarterback has to evade a free runner and make
Speaker 1: a hasty decision, it's just not good to not have
Speaker 1: your top target, you're available to you because of the
Speaker 1: rotation after a blitz, right. I think that's what Johnson offers.
Speaker 1: I think a player like him cannot only increase your
Speaker 1: takeaway figure but help your sack numbers.
Speaker 2: He just creates splash plays.
Speaker 1: I might have flipped my cornerback rankings here back to
Speaker 1: Johnson on top because he's a special, special prospect. It
Speaker 1: is that position flexibility that kind of gets me hung up.
Speaker 1: So really I'm happy with either one, and I think
Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I think my final board, if
Speaker 1: number thirteen looks like this, I'm not going to go
Speaker 1: in order yet.
Speaker 2: Ah, this is tough.
Speaker 1: We'll do it later on the podcast, on a later
Speaker 1: episode of the podcast too, But right now, the guys
Speaker 1: I would draft at thirteen if they are there, and
Speaker 1: a few of these names are going to be long gone,
Speaker 1: especially my first right quarterback, cam Ward, I would take
Speaker 1: him if he's there. He's not going to be there,
Speaker 1: Tackle armand Membu is going to be a top ten pick.
Speaker 1: Tyler Warren obviously, you guys know that. I guess this
Speaker 1: kind of is an order actually, And then Will Johnson
Speaker 1: and Jadea Baron are of neck and neck and then
Speaker 1: I go tackle Josh Simmons. I think he's just a
Speaker 1: great player. I think he's going to be gone though,
Speaker 1: Kenneth Grant Mason Graham, the two defensive tackles will see
Speaker 1: who's there who's not, could both be gone. And then
Speaker 1: cornerback Savon Revel. I know that's going to be considered
Speaker 1: a reach on him, but I think he's going to
Speaker 1: be the best pressman cornerback in this class. And then
Speaker 1: running back Ashton Gent. So those are my stick and
Speaker 1: pick options. The guys I like in trade down options
Speaker 1: are the two safeties Nick emn Worry and Malachi Starks,
Speaker 1: Gray's abel Will Campbell, who's not going to be there
Speaker 1: for a trade down, and defensive tackle Derek Harmon. I
Speaker 1: will give you guys my full horizontal board for the
Speaker 1: top five rounds on an episode next week. We're also
Speaker 1: going to have Chris Greer's press conference availability covering that
Speaker 1: for you guys. Next week, we'll have Kyle Krabs in
Speaker 1: the podcast for two shows on Draft week. Plenty of
Speaker 1: draft content coming your way, and with that in mind,
Speaker 1: we're going to go ahead and close up the show
Speaker 1: on the other side and talk about what a trade
Speaker 1: down could look like, who are some of the top
Speaker 1: candidates to do that and what could you fetch in
Speaker 1: a return if you can move down the board. That's
Speaker 1: next Draft Time podcast, your host Travis Wingfield, brought to
Speaker 1: you by autuntation. We are inside of two weeks from
Speaker 1: draft day. Two weeks from today, you'll be getting ready
Speaker 1: for Day two of the draft, which, man, being on
Speaker 1: the West Coast when it was at four o'clock was
Speaker 1: pretty nice. These seven o'clock draft start times is it's
Speaker 1: pretty rough, but hey, you know, late nights every once
Speaker 1: in a while not too bad. Let's go ahead and
Speaker 1: close with this today because we spent a lot of
Speaker 1: time in the last couple of weeks really hammering down
Speaker 1: some of the options at pick thirteen.
Speaker 2: And this is sort of the beauty of pre draft work.
Speaker 1: I think a lot of people look at this like
Speaker 1: it might be I don't know, I guess a waste
Speaker 1: of time from a content standpoint, but I view it
Speaker 1: in the prism of this isn't work for today's reward,
Speaker 1: but it'll come up at some point down the road,
Speaker 1: and maybe that down the road payoff is in four
Speaker 1: years when these guys hit free agency. And you have
Speaker 1: a baseline understanding of where their game was as a
Speaker 1: rookie at age twenty one versus where it is for
Speaker 1: a second contract time at age twenty five. But also
Speaker 1: perhaps it helps you get an idea for how the
Speaker 1: draft might play out. These are things that the Dolphins
Speaker 1: brass will be doing NonStop for the next couple of weeks.
Speaker 1: The multitude of scenarios. Let's say the board breaks, you know,
Speaker 1: ab cd ef all the way through Z, and then
Speaker 1: through each of those twenty six permutations. Let's throw a
Speaker 1: monkey wrench into each one, like somebody trades from position
Speaker 1: Y to position X, and now we have permutation A
Speaker 1: two B two C two and on and on and on.
Speaker 1: And by doing that you kind of get a sense
Speaker 1: for where certain suite spots exist. Like I know, we
Speaker 1: all get mock draft fatigue, believe me, nobody more than
Speaker 1: I do. But the process of running those for weeks
Speaker 1: and weeks is that with a big enough sample size,
Speaker 1: you kind of begin to get a consensus and by
Speaker 1: differentiating which spots are hot for certain positions and maybe
Speaker 1: where you can wait a little bit. Again, biggest disclaimer
Speaker 1: I can possibly convey all of this is guesswork, right,
Speaker 1: I mean, the evaluation of it is sort of guesswork,
Speaker 1: but at least you've got tangible evidence with this. Trying
Speaker 1: to predict the draft game itself, you're making educated guesses
Speaker 1: on correctly identifying the powerball numbers. You can't possibly forecast
Speaker 1: exactly what other teams will do, at least not all
Speaker 1: of them. You have your intel and your theories, but
Speaker 1: it only takes one ranch for everything to change. Like
Speaker 1: when Larry mctunzel has a picture of him in a
Speaker 1: bong mask leak out? Was that twenty minutes before the draft?
Speaker 1: Or when a team breaks the seal on a position group.
Speaker 1: We get this run that happens every single year. It
Speaker 1: happened last year. We were part of it. Remember how
Speaker 1: Laatu Latu, Dallas Turner, Jared Verse, and Chop Robinson were
Speaker 1: all on the board at pick fifteen. You go a
Speaker 1: lot to at fifteen, Turner at seventeen, Verse at nineteen,
Speaker 1: Chop at twenty one, from seventeen picks and no edges
Speaker 1: taken to four picks or rather seven picks I should say,
Speaker 1: and four edges taken. So in hindsight, if you could
Speaker 1: have forecasted that, then perhaps the Saints who picked fourteenth
Speaker 1: ahead of that run and took a very good player
Speaker 1: and or Talis Fuaga.
Speaker 2: Maybe they could have found a dance.
Speaker 1: Partner that would have wanted to get ahead of Indie, Minnesota,
Speaker 1: US and the Rams to take their preferred edge, or
Speaker 1: in the middle of that, right like Turner a lot too,
Speaker 1: come off, Hey we have version chop out there. We
Speaker 1: only have two remaining round one edges. We're gonna have
Speaker 1: to pull the trigger and go right here. So with
Speaker 1: that in mind, I wanted to look at the board,
Speaker 1: and I kicked around how best to execute this, and
Speaker 1: I think what I'll do is run a mock draft
Speaker 1: and take the info they give us, But I want
Speaker 1: to look at what's available, who's directly behind us, who
Speaker 1: has motivation to potentially come up and come up with
Speaker 1: what the board has available, and the rate to get
Speaker 1: the deal done kind of makes you respect the chaos
Speaker 1: of draft night a little bit more. Right, teams are
Speaker 1: processing all these scenarios and have just ten minutes to
Speaker 1: make their move, So let's go ahead and push start
Speaker 1: on this mock draft. And of course you get bombarded
Speaker 1: by trade offers immediately, like the Broncos are offering twenty
Speaker 1: and fifty one to get to thirteen. The Bears are
Speaker 1: offering thirty nine, forty one and seventy two to get
Speaker 1: up to thirteen, and then the Patriots are offering thirty eight,
Speaker 1: sixty nine, seventy seven, one oh six and a two
Speaker 1: next year, and we have to send back thirteen and
Speaker 1: one fifty. I mean, the Lions and Vikings did a
Speaker 1: huge in division deal a couple of years ago for
Speaker 1: Jamison Williams, so I never say never, I guess. But
Speaker 1: the values of those trade offers are as follows to
Speaker 1: give you an idea. The Broncos, that Round one difference
Speaker 1: from thirteen to twenty is a loss of three hundred
Speaker 1: points on the famed draft value chart, which I know
Speaker 1: outdated and all that stuff. Yeah whatever, And the fifty
Speaker 1: first pick is worth three hundred and ninety points, and
Speaker 1: actually they ask for one point fifty back, which is
Speaker 1: thirty one point four points. So we come out of
Speaker 1: that up fifty eight point six points a win. If
Speaker 1: you're just strictly going off the draft value chart. We'll
Speaker 1: circle back to the Broncos. The Bears trade offer. They
Speaker 1: want us to get out of the first round altogether,
Speaker 1: which usually cost a pretty penny. So Pick thirteen is
Speaker 1: worth eleven hundred and fifty points. Picks thirty nine, forty one,
Speaker 1: and seventy two are worth five, ten, four, ninety and
Speaker 1: two thirty, so a total of twelve thirty. So again
Speaker 1: a deal that gives us more value of what that's
Speaker 1: eighty additional points that we gained in that trade. The
Speaker 1: Patriots of thirty eight, sixty nine, seventy seven, one oh six.
Speaker 1: That's worth one thousand and fifty two points, just one
Speaker 1: hundred point shy of the mark we have it picked
Speaker 1: thirteen and the lowest number for a second round draft pick.
Speaker 1: If the Patriots won the Super Bowl, and we know
Speaker 1: that's not gonna freaking happen this year, and there was,
Speaker 1: pick sixty four would be two hundred and seventy points,
Speaker 1: so you're one seventy in the Plus, if they win
Speaker 1: the super Bowl, it's probably gonna be more like a
Speaker 1: top ten picks, so it's going to be even four
Speaker 1: hundred points higher than that. So all these deals are
Speaker 1: beneficial for the Fins, and quite frankly, if our division
Speaker 1: rivals want to give us a top four top picks
Speaker 1: or four picks in the top one oh six in
Speaker 1: a class that's deeper than it is top heavy, and
Speaker 1: give us a premium pick next year in a game
Speaker 1: where it's a numbers game. Sign me up for that,
Speaker 1: and for what it's worth. I'm a massive proponent, especially
Speaker 1: this year of a trade down. I think if you
Speaker 1: get this class up to twelve thirteen picks, you can
Speaker 1: make a massive impact in terms of getting what you
Speaker 1: need badly cheap contributors. Even if half those picks don't
Speaker 1: work out, we get six or seven guys, that's gonna
Speaker 1: be a phenomenal draft class, one of the best in
Speaker 1: the league if you can do it. Our board has
Speaker 1: Shadur Sanders, Teed McMillan, Kelvin Banks, Matthew Golden, Mike Green.
Speaker 1: These are all premium position guys that are near the
Speaker 1: top of the class, which to me is a great
Speaker 1: potential move backboard with those wide receivers. The Broncos are
Speaker 1: a good example.
Speaker 2: Well.
Speaker 1: I think they could be in search for a weapon,
Speaker 1: whether it's a receiver or Ashton genty. They don't currently
Speaker 1: have a proven workhorse back, and Sean Payton always had
Speaker 1: those with the Saints, even if it was the two
Speaker 1: man committee between Ingram and Kamara. I also think they
Speaker 1: could use wide receiver help and maybe see Ted McMillan
Speaker 1: or Matthew Golden, whoever their receiver one is. Maybe they
Speaker 1: think that's a good spot to come up and get
Speaker 1: that player. And that's gonna mean pick fifty one if
Speaker 1: they do that, and that's a perfect spot to scoop
Speaker 1: up another premium pick for a sliding back seven spots right.
Speaker 1: And it also frees you up to go the safer route,
Speaker 1: like example, what if it's Gray's Abel and you know
Speaker 1: you've got a starting left guard or right guard, whatever
Speaker 1: it's going to be for the next five years with him,
Speaker 1: you can take a high floor player and at a top.
Speaker 2: Fifty one pick.
Speaker 1: I like that strategy, especially in a class where it's
Speaker 1: like fine starters, and Zabel's just an example. Other options exist,
Speaker 1: but he is like one of these safest players in
Speaker 1: the entire class to me, the North Dakota State guard
Speaker 1: the Bears were a team that I was going to
Speaker 1: mention because they have that pick at ten, But let's
Speaker 1: say they go genty. Why not get that name on
Speaker 1: GENTI and a lot of folks I think think that's
Speaker 1: a potential pairing For the Bears, we saw them attack
Speaker 1: the interior offensive line, but could probably still use a tackle,
Speaker 1: and with three teams behind us that could go offensive tackle.
Speaker 2: Maybe Will Campbell slides.
Speaker 1: Maybe they want to get up for Kelvin Banks and
Speaker 1: you can recoup two top forty picks and some change.
Speaker 1: That's also intriguing to me. The Patriots one, I can't buy.
Speaker 1: I don't think they're in a position to sell off
Speaker 1: five picks for one player. But just looking around the
Speaker 1: rest of the first round, you try to look at
Speaker 1: the needs of the teams right behind you, and maybe
Speaker 1: this is a quarterback. Maybe it's Shedur Sanders, maybe it's
Speaker 1: Jackson Dart I don't know. And you get the Steelers
Speaker 1: to go up from twenty one to prevent anybody else
Speaker 1: from going up and taking their guy. But you just
Speaker 1: never know. And the quarterback is the best position to
Speaker 1: have if you want to trade down. We learned that
Speaker 1: back in twenty twenty one with Trey Lance and the
Speaker 1: bountiful Treasure trow of that provided us. Here are the
Speaker 1: biggest needs as listed by ESPN or maybe it's NFL
Speaker 1: dot Com. For the teams directly behind us, the Colts
Speaker 1: tight end, offensive line, linebacker, edge, running back, the Falcons edge,
Speaker 1: defensive tackle, corner, O line and safety, the Cardinals O line, receiver, edge,
Speaker 1: D line, corner, the Bengals edge, safety, backer, O line,
Speaker 1: and corner. Notice the offensive line is in there for
Speaker 1: all five of the all four of those teams.
Speaker 2: He usually is.
Speaker 1: Everybody needs offensive line help. But that's where I look
Speaker 1: at the potential slide of a Will Campbell. Some think
Speaker 1: he's a guard, which could absolutely push him out of
Speaker 1: the top ten. But what if the Bengals have him
Speaker 1: as a tackle and see a potential left tackle for
Speaker 1: five years of cost control.
Speaker 2: Contract.
Speaker 1: You could slide back as they are moving up over
Speaker 1: two teams that could also go offensive line, or a
Speaker 1: team further back that wants to jump the entire run.
Speaker 1: And look at Seattle, whose offensive line was atrocious a
Speaker 1: year ago, doing large part to injuries, and they just
Speaker 1: signed a quarterback who thrived behind a good system that
Speaker 1: kept him upright compared to where he was a bust
Speaker 1: in the league behind an offensive line that couldn't do
Speaker 1: that With the Jets, right edge is in there for
Speaker 1: everybody too. And I just listened to a Move the
Speaker 1: Stix podcast that said that Mike Green has been attached
Speaker 1: to the Falcons as much as any prospect to a
Speaker 1: team outside of cam Ward, to the Titans, every one overall.
Speaker 1: So maybe the Bengals are thinking about the future beyond
Speaker 1: Trey Hendricks, who has voiced his desire for a new
Speaker 1: contract for a couple of years. Or maybe the Lions
Speaker 1: want to make a splash to pair somebody with Aiden
Speaker 1: Hutchinson off the edge, as they kind of lost him
Speaker 1: last year and couldn't get after the quarterback. And they
Speaker 1: come all the way up from twenty eight. I think
Speaker 1: that's where you look O line, edge, wide receiver need teams.
Speaker 1: Perhaps one of the quarterback slides and there are dance
Speaker 1: partners all over the back end of the first round
Speaker 1: who maybe say, there's you know, thirteen really good prospects
Speaker 1: in this year's class. Let's go make a push to
Speaker 1: get one of those guys and add one of the
Speaker 1: blue chippers to our roster, opposed to, you know, having
Speaker 1: more picks for the starters, which is what we need
Speaker 1: more of. So it's like a you know, I scratch
Speaker 1: your back, you scratch mine.
Speaker 2: Well, Jules, the funny thing about my back is a
Speaker 2: it's located on my.
Speaker 1: Who we like to have fun just for prosterity and
Speaker 1: the issues in giggles, shits and giggles. I ran that mock,
Speaker 1: taking the Patriots deal. It was too sweet to pass up.
Speaker 1: And here's what I got. Defensive tackle ty Leek Williams
Speaker 1: out of Ohio State, the best run defending defensive tackle
Speaker 1: in the class, perhaps at thirty eight. At forty eight,
Speaker 1: Jonah Savina, I think I'm saying that right. The Arizona
Speaker 1: guard who looks like an absolute beast to me, my
Speaker 1: future Trent McDuffie, Jacob Parrish out of Kansas State at
Speaker 1: the cornerback, taking him a pick sixty nine. Nice at
Speaker 1: seventy seven, I'm going to replace receiver, hopefully Kyle Williams
Speaker 1: from Washington State.
Speaker 2: Go Koks bump.
Speaker 1: And then it picked ninety eight safety Laithan Ransom out
Speaker 1: of Ohio State, and it picked one oh six defensive
Speaker 1: tackle CJ.
Speaker 2: West out of Indiana.
Speaker 1: Then I'd probably go with Jackson Hawes and Jalen Conyers,
Speaker 1: the Texas Tech and Georgia Tech tight ends, double dip
Speaker 1: on them later on, maybe find a running back at
Speaker 1: some point on Day three. All of that and the
Speaker 1: premium pick next year, not too bad. See, these scenarios
Speaker 1: are fun to talk there. We're not gonna get a
Speaker 1: pick from the Patriots, but it's fun to talk about it.
Speaker 1: And we'll do plenty more of that here on the
Speaker 1: podcast in the next two weeks. Here getting you ready
Speaker 1: for the NFL Draft. In the meantime, that is going
Speaker 1: to be my time. You all, please be sure subscribe, rate,
Speaker 1: review the show on wherever you get your podcasts. Go
Speaker 1: ahead and follow me on social at Winkle NFL. The
Speaker 1: team at Miami Dolphins. Check out the fish Tank podcast
Speaker 1: with Seth and Juice, the YouTube channel for Dolphins, HQ,
Speaker 1: Media availabilities, and so much more. Last, but not least,
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins dot Com. Until next time, Finns up call
Speaker 1: on Cameron.
Speaker 2: Daddy just come home.