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Speaker 1: Good morning. I'm Brian Curtis. Here are the stories we're

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Speaker 1: following today. The current Israel Hamas pause is nearing its

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Speaker 1: end as talks continue at Backsha with that story and

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Speaker 1: more from San Francisco ed.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I've gotten a lot of information out of it, either, Brian.

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Speaker 2: Negotiators from Cutter in the US oppressing for the agreement

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Speaker 2: to extend Israel's demanding all the remaining hostages be released.

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Speaker 2: In US Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln says continuing the

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Speaker 2: ceasefire may be the way to get that done.

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Speaker 3: It's continuation, by definition, means that more hostages would be

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Speaker 3: coming home, more assistants would be getting in, So clearly

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Speaker 3: that's something we want and I believe it's also something

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Speaker 3: that Israel wants.

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Speaker 2: Now more hostages were free today and the hope is

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Speaker 2: they're still for a second release before the deadline. But

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Speaker 2: it is bittersweet for some. Shanny Siegel was released earlier.

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Speaker 2: Her cousin talks about her response.

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Speaker 4: We were ecstatic, but the joy only laugh a few

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Speaker 4: minutes because many realize she was released without her husband.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Hamas is not released to any men as have yet,

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Speaker 2: So we'll hope for words soon about that seasfire and

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Speaker 2: the US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has spent about

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Speaker 2: forty five minutes on the floor talking about the spike

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Speaker 2: and anti Semitism in the United States.

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Speaker 5: Any of those marching here in the US do not

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Speaker 5: have any evil intent. But when Jewish people here chance,

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Speaker 5: like from the River to the sea a founding slogan

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Speaker 5: of hamas a terrorist group that is not shy about

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Speaker 5: their goal to eradicate the Jewish people in Israel and

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Speaker 5: around the globe, we are longed.

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Speaker 2: He says. This goes waving on a legitimate debate about

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Speaker 2: Israeli policy into a very dark place. Ukraine, NATO Ukraine

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Speaker 2: Council in Brussels today renewed call for continued aid for

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Speaker 2: Ukraine from Secretary of State Blank.

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Speaker 3: And some are questioning whether the United States and other

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Speaker 3: NATO allies should continue to stand with Ukraine. We enter

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Speaker 3: the second winter at Putin's brutality, But the answer here

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Speaker 3: today at NATO is clear and it's some wavering. We

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Speaker 3: must and we will continue to support Ukraine.

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Speaker 2: The scheduling of the vote for George Santo's expulsion needs

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Speaker 2: to be done by tomorrow under terms of the resolution,

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Speaker 2: but House Speaker Mike Johnson, well, it doesn't sound a

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Speaker 2: whole lot like it.

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Speaker 6: I think the good will be product. That's all I'm

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Speaker 6: going to say about the Friday.

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Speaker 2: But the resolution says tomorrow now earlier in the day.

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Speaker 7: I personally have real reservations about doing this. I'm concerned

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Speaker 7: about a president that may be set for that. So

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Speaker 7: where everybody's working through that, and we'll see how they

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Speaker 7: vote tomorrow.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so we'll see where it goes. Santos's schedule a

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Speaker 2: news conference for early morning at the Capitol tomorrow. The

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Speaker 2: Taiwan's president, Tyan Wing, says she believes China is too

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Speaker 2: consumed by domestic economic and political problems to invade Taiwan.

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Speaker 2: This even as Beijing rams up military pressure, and as

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Speaker 2: Google has struck it deal with a Canadian government over

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Speaker 2: contentious law that would force pay for news. It would

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Speaker 2: avert the news block schedule for next month. And I

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Speaker 2: was searching here a story just up on the Bloomberg terminal.

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Speaker 2: Elon Musk says advertisers that have stopped spending on the

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Speaker 2: platform due to his endorsement of antisemitic posts can f

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Speaker 2: word themselves. He says, what's going to do is kill

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Speaker 2: the company Global news twenty four hours a day and

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Speaker 2: whenever you want it. With Bloomberg News now in San Francisco,

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Speaker 2: I'm Ed Baxter.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg, and we tackle now some of the

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Speaker 1: top business stories of the hour.

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Speaker 8: Well.

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Speaker 1: US treasuries rose on trader bets that the FED will

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Speaker 1: cut interest rates in the first half of twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: Two FED officials made the case for continuing to hold

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Speaker 1: interest rates steady. Let's run through some of these now.

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Speaker 1: Cleveland FED President Loretta Mester said that policy is well

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Speaker 1: positioned for the FED to be nimble and respond appropriately

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Speaker 1: too incoming economic data, and Atlanta FED President Raphael Bostic

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Speaker 1: said he's growing increatingly confident that inflation is firmly on

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Speaker 1: a downward path. However, Richmond FED chief Thomas Barkin told

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Speaker 1: CNBC he is not yet convinced.

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Speaker 9: I think you want to have the option of doing

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Speaker 9: more on rates, and I guess the bigger point is

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Speaker 9: there's no precision that anyone can point to at exactly

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Speaker 9: what is the level of rates that exactly handles inflation

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Speaker 9: and exactly the way you want to handle it, And

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Speaker 9: so you're constantly trying to adjust on the fly as

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Speaker 9: you learn more about the economy, as you learn more

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Speaker 9: about the impact of demand on inflation. And that's what

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Speaker 9: we're learning as we go.

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Speaker 1: Thomas Barkin there on CNBC. FED officials meet next December

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Speaker 1: twelfth and thirteenth.

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Speaker 10: We're hearing too, health insurance giants, emerger talks, Bloomberg's and

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Speaker 10: Kites reports.

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Speaker 11: Signa and hu Man are working on a potential cash

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Speaker 11: and stock combination that would create a giant in the

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Speaker 11: health insurance industry that you would become a powerful challenger

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Speaker 11: to United Health and CBS Health. The move would also

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Speaker 11: shrink the number of publicly traded national health insurance from

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Speaker 11: six to five and give the Signa Humanna editing more

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Speaker 11: leverage and negotiating with hospitals or Medicare. The tie up

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Speaker 11: would likely face antitrust hurdles in Washington, and Kate's Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: Interesting Paul that both stocks went down. You don't often

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Speaker 1: see that in one of these merger type stories. Signal

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Speaker 1: was down eight percent for the session and Humano was

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Speaker 1: down five and a half percent. Well Shares of General

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Speaker 1: Motors jumped more than nine percent after the automaker announced

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Speaker 1: it would boost its dividend by thirty three percent. GM

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Speaker 1: also said it would repurchase ten billion dollars of shares.

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Speaker 1: The carmaker is returning billions two investors despite a push

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Speaker 1: into electric vehicles. That push has yet to show significant results.

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Speaker 1: The buyback also comes despite a new labor agreement with

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Speaker 1: the United Auto Workers that adds more than nine billion

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Speaker 1: dollars in expenses. GM CEO Mary Barra says the agreement

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Speaker 1: was the right call.

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Speaker 12: When you look at the suite of benefits that our

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Speaker 12: represented team members have, it's very very appropriate package and

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Speaker 12: frankly leading from an industry perspective broader than just the

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Speaker 12: auto industry. So I think we did the right thing

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Speaker 12: to recognize and reward the hard work of our manufacturing

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Speaker 12: team members across the board.

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Speaker 1: GMCEO Mary Bearra. Separately, the United Autoworkers Union is launching

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Speaker 1: an aggressive campaign to unionize thirteen non union automakers. They

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Speaker 1: include Toyota, Volkswagen, and also Tesla. The union is hoping

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Speaker 1: to capitalize in recent contract victories with the big three automakers.

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Speaker 8: In Detroit.

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Speaker 10: Salesforce gave a profit forecast for the current core of

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Speaker 10: the topped analyst estimates. I've got the story from Bloomberg's

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Speaker 10: Charlie Pellett.

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Speaker 6: It shows strong momentum in the software giants cost cutting campaign.

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Speaker 6: The San Francisco based company said earnings excluding some items,

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Speaker 6: will be about two dollars twenty six cents a share

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Speaker 6: in the period ending in January. Analysts, on average projected

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Speaker 6: two dollars seventeen cents. It said revenue will be from

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Speaker 6: nine point one one eight billion dollars to nine point

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Speaker 6: two to three billion dollars. That compares with analyst average

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Speaker 6: estimate of nine point two to two billion dollars in

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Speaker 6: New York. Charlie Pellett Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia is getting more involved in diplomatic efforts around

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Speaker 1: the Israel Hamas war. We hear the Kingdom is offering

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Speaker 1: to invest more in Iran, its traditional adversary, if Iran

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Speaker 1: would keep its proxies out of the fight. We get

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Speaker 1: more from Bloomberg's Sam Dagger.

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Speaker 8: I've been speaking to a number of experts and they

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Speaker 8: told me that for Iran, Hamas is less important than

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Speaker 8: the others, particularly has Bulah, which is the pillar so

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Speaker 8: to speak, of this whole forward defense strategy of Iran

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Speaker 8: in the region. So Iran is very careful not to

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Speaker 8: provoke a wider conflict in which has Bulah would be enmeshed.

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Speaker 1: It's not clear yet how Iran might respond to the

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Speaker 1: Saudi offer.

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Speaker 10: Pmis fall November likely to show the manufacturing sector extending

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Speaker 10: its contraction. Bloomberg's von Mann has more from Hong Kong.

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Speaker 13: The consensus at a Bloomberg survey of economists is for

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Speaker 13: a mile pickup in manufacturing. The economists pegged the index

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Speaker 13: at forty nine point eight, indicating the sector remains in

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Speaker 13: contraction early in leading indicators point to some softening in production.

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Speaker 13: Meantime in a non manufacturing sector, economists adjusts the index.

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Speaker 13: We'll pick up to fifty point nine for fifty point

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Speaker 13: six in October, but Bloomberg Economics expects the index to

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Speaker 13: decelerate further. That's likely to do with the extended slump

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Speaker 13: in the property sector and cooling tourism related businesses after

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Speaker 13: the October holiday in Hong Kong. I'm von Mann Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: Twelve minutes now past the hour. Joining us is Edward Harrison, Bloomberg,

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Speaker 1: team leader for the America's FX and Rates team, and

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Speaker 1: he's with us here live on the show, Edward, thank

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Speaker 1: you for joining us. I want to revisit a sort

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Speaker 1: of non consensus call in the marketplace that the hard

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Speaker 1: part is over on inflation, that actually the last mile

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Speaker 1: of disinflation won't actually be that hard. Goldman Sachs made

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Speaker 1: that point a couple of weeks back. I'm not sure

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Speaker 1: that many buy into it, do you.

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Speaker 14: You know, I would say that I'm on the other

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Speaker 14: side of that. But there are some people, Bill Ackman

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Speaker 14: in particular, who are talking about this very much. In

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Speaker 14: particular Bill Ackman, who was very vocal about this in

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Speaker 14: the David Ruminstide interview that he just did here on Bloomberg,

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Speaker 14: he said that the Fed concerned about the real rate

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Speaker 14: of interest, that is, you know, the nominal rate minus inflation,

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Speaker 14: will eventually see very quickly, actually in the beginning of

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Speaker 14: twenty twenty four, that they're too tight because inflation has

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Speaker 14: fallen so much.

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Speaker 10: We're still well outside the target ban though, so you

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Speaker 10: know how I have for longer. Something we keep thinking

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Speaker 10: about is the market getting a bit ahead of itself

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Speaker 10: in terms of when it's anticipating easing.

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Speaker 14: I would say it is getting ahead of itself in

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Speaker 14: terms of when it's anticipating easy and in part this

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Speaker 14: is due to the uncertainty involved in where we are,

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Speaker 14: because if you think in the last three cycles, we've

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Speaker 14: had five hundred basis points or more of cuts, and

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Speaker 14: then there's the potential that we have a soft landing,

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Speaker 14: how do you hedge, you know, zero cuts versus five

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Speaker 14: hundred You come out somewhere in between. But to the

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Speaker 14: degree that you think that there is the possibility of

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Speaker 14: a recession, then it's likely to be coming in a

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Speaker 14: very short period of time, say twenty twenty four, and

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Speaker 14: that's why we're seeing this bidding up of cuts coming forward.

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Speaker 1: I wonder if there's a little bit of goldilocks in

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Speaker 1: some of the retail activity that we've seen here of

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Speaker 1: late with Black Friday or Monday, in that you have

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Speaker 1: discerning consumers. You have retailers that to make their numbers,

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Speaker 1: the numbers were good, but to make those numbers they

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Speaker 1: did have to offer discounts and it wasn't like rampant,

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Speaker 1: but they were definitely there. And to me, that indicates

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Speaker 1: that companies find that they cannot continue raising prices, that

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Speaker 1: consumers are becoming more discerning.

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Speaker 14: They really are, and it is amazing what will happen

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Speaker 14: when you give a fifty percent discount. How many people

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Speaker 14: will come and buy your products?

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Speaker 8: The quest?

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Speaker 6: I mean, it does.

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Speaker 1: It does have some implications for inflation coming down, doesn't it.

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Speaker 14: It definitely does. I think that it shows that at

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Speaker 14: a minimum, on the good side of things, that we've

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Speaker 14: seen the peak, and then the question now becomes the

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Speaker 14: sticky part, the services part. That's where the real tough

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Speaker 14: nut to crack is. The question is is how sticky

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Speaker 14: is inflation on the services side of the ledger and

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Speaker 14: how much of that will satisfy the FED before they

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Speaker 14: start cutting. I think that the market is a little

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Speaker 14: bit ahead of itself and if we don't have a

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Speaker 14: recession in terms of expecting any cuts in the near term.

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Speaker 14: Even Bostic of the Atlanta FED, who's one of the

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Speaker 14: more dubbish members, isn't talking about this. But nonetheless I

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Speaker 14: think that's where the sticky wicket is.

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Speaker 10: We have seen pretty impressive decline and yields this week.

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Speaker 10: The you are still a weakening as well. You're an

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Speaker 10: FX and rights guy. How much further that he's going

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Speaker 10: to fold?

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Speaker 8: Yeah?

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Speaker 14: I think that on the long end of the curve,

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Speaker 14: it's very difficult to go much further from here. We're

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Speaker 14: at about four to twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 14: When you look at the FED funds, the top end

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Speaker 14: of the range is five point fifty, So that's one

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Speaker 14: hundred and twenty five basis points differential there that you're

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Speaker 14: giving up. Certainly, you're locking in for twenty five and

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Speaker 14: you rue the fact that you didn't lock in five percent,

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Speaker 14: and that's a very nice coupon clip. But the reality

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Speaker 14: is is that you are giving up one hundred and

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Speaker 14: twenty five basis points by moving all the way out there.

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Speaker 14: So the question then becomes how much more can these

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Speaker 14: yields go down given that were firmly anchored at five

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Speaker 14: point five percent on the upper end of the FED phones.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, quite interesting to note that the short end falling

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Speaker 1: a little faster now than the long end, So that's.

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Speaker 8: Something to keep in mind.

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Speaker 1: One other issue that hasn't been talked about too much

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Speaker 1: is China exporting deflation.

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Speaker 14: Now, Yeah, that is a good question. I would say

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Speaker 14: that a corollary of that question is whether or not

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Speaker 14: China has matters less in the sense that other Asian

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Speaker 14: countries are now picking up the baton from China, and

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Speaker 14: that what we're seeing in terms of China and their

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Speaker 14: exportation deflation is offset by, you know, a pickup in

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Speaker 14: demand in other countries within Asia, in particular Japan, which

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Speaker 14: has done relatively well for the first time in a

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Speaker 14: very long time.

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