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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then roudo with the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Fascinating to hear just everyone evolve with the data. Certainly

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Speaker 2: the markets are today, and to hear the former Saint

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Speaker 2: Louis FED president say the soft landing for the US

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Speaker 2: economy is in view is something that we are obviously

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Speaker 2: going to hear. That's the kind of news that the

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Speaker 2: White House wants to listen to. And following this job's

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Speaker 2: data this morning, we may be in a different world.

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Speaker 2: It certainly feels like it then we were twenty four

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Speaker 2: hours ago, certainly coming off of the Fed meeting and

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Speaker 2: some of the more recent data that we've seen on

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Speaker 2: GDP and jobs. Mark Hamrick joins us. Now I'm glad

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Speaker 2: to say from our Washington Bureau, the bank Rate Washington

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Speaker 2: Bureau chief, you's senior economic analysts at bank Rate and

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Speaker 2: has been researching this job's data forest market. It's great

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Speaker 2: to have you on Bloomberg. Welcome the stuff that we

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Speaker 2: were hearing just now from Jim Bullard reinforces this view

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Speaker 2: that the FED may actually stick the soft landing. How

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Speaker 2: are you looking at this report today?

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Speaker 3: Good to be with you, Joan, Thanks for having me.

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Speaker 3: I think what he's saying is very parallel to what

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Speaker 3: the FED chairman said just a few days ago, and

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Speaker 3: that is there are a number of possible paths ahead,

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Speaker 3: and some of those pasts may well be constructive, meaning

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Speaker 3: we avoid a hard landing, we avoid a contraction in

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Speaker 3: the economy in the next let's say, six to twelve months,

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Speaker 3: and that the hope is indeed aligned with the prayer

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Speaker 3: that inflation will continue to come down. There are other paths, though,

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Speaker 3: that could involve events that we can even predict. And

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Speaker 3: so what I think I would prefer to associate myself

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Speaker 3: with in this discussion is the high degree of uncertainty,

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Speaker 3: to acknowledge that there are multiple paths and that we

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Speaker 3: don't have a high degree of certainty about a particular path.

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Speaker 2: Okay, so we're data dependent as we have been. We're

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Speaker 2: awfully used to that. But you can feel the shift

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Speaker 2: in sentiment here, can't you?

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Speaker 4: Mark?

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Speaker 5: Does that change your view?

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Speaker 3: Well, it's one day's worth of data, but obviously an

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Speaker 3: important set of data, you know, and you can concoct

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Speaker 3: a variety of paths just from today, For example, the

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Speaker 3: payrolls number coming in with a gain of one hundred

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Speaker 3: and seventy five thousand jobs. That's a decline of forty

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Speaker 3: percent from the previous month's revised number. So you can

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Speaker 3: come up with a scenario where that trajectory goes lower

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Speaker 3: that we get a much more pronounced slowing in the economy.

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Speaker 4: I don't think that's the base.

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Speaker 3: Case, but I would say broadly, this is a very

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Speaker 3: well balanced report which does take sort of the hot

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Speaker 3: plate of porridge out of the choice of three too hot,

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Speaker 3: too cold, just right today today alone, and we'll see

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Speaker 3: what the next rounds of data bring.

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Speaker 2: What are the next rounds that matter to you? Are

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Speaker 2: we back to obsessing over CPI or is it the

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Speaker 2: jobs report that's kind of leading your view?

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Speaker 3: I think we're mostly obsessing about the consumer price index

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Speaker 3: over the job's report.

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Speaker 4: And that's painful for.

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Speaker 3: Me to say, because I've always loved following the employment data.

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Speaker 3: But you know, when you're talking about the FED prioritizing

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Speaker 3: the part of the mandate with stable prices. Although it's

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Speaker 3: interesting to hear Chairman Powell this past week say well,

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Speaker 3: perhaps we need to be paying just a bit more

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Speaker 3: attention now to maximum employment than we were before. I

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Speaker 3: still think the CPI is the star of the show,

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Speaker 3: because there was nothing in the statement that led us

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Speaker 3: to believe that we're going to be prioritizing the employment side.

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Speaker 3: It is that we need greater confidence about coming down

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Speaker 3: to that. Heavily talked about two percent target.

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Speaker 2: You're looking at average hourly earnings in this report. We've

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Speaker 2: been with the n I on inflation watching that number

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Speaker 2: carefully of three point nine percent over the past year,

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Speaker 2: pay is exceeding inflation, which is a really good thing

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Speaker 2: for Joe Biden to say. But how concerning could that

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Speaker 2: be if this trend continues, when we consider the possibility

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Speaker 2: of a wage spiral, of this starting to become a

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Speaker 2: vicious cycle where the Fed needs to worry again.

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Speaker 3: Well, I think, first of all, Chairman pal has been

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Speaker 3: pretty consistent, and I think the data supports the view

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Speaker 3: that the job market has not been the primary cause

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Speaker 3: of inflation in the sense of wage growth, leading that

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Speaker 3: we know the imbalance between supply and demand broadly, and

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Speaker 3: the supply chains really fed that. The war against Ukraine

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Speaker 3: as another straw to sort of break that camel's back,

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Speaker 3: and we had to decline in the sort of month

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Speaker 3: over month annualized look at average hourly earnings. So we're

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Speaker 3: not above four percent as were before. We're at thirty nine.

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Speaker 3: So I think it's reasonable to expect that with this

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Speaker 3: moderation or normalization we have in the job market, that

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Speaker 3: we will not have a wage price spiral. We had

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Speaker 3: a number of things seasonally occurring at the beginning of

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Speaker 3: the year, with twenty two states, dozens of localities raising

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Speaker 3: their minimum wages that had to have been affecting the data,

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Speaker 3: and we know there were a number of negotiated settlements

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Speaker 3: involving unions that also probably lifted some of that.

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Speaker 4: So I would look at some of that.

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Speaker 3: As being seasonal or temporary, and that would probably be

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Speaker 3: consistent with numbers that are not as high going forward.

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Speaker 1: Got it.

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Speaker 2: We're spending time with Mark Hamrick from Bankrate here on

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Speaker 2: Balance of Power, on Bloomberg Radio and on YouTube. If

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Speaker 2: you want to find us now, go to YouTube search

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Global News. You'll see Mark Hamrick's palatial office. While

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Speaker 2: you're at it mark. What's the most stubborn problem here

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Speaker 2: in the inflation conversation. I know you're watching oil it's

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Speaker 2: a little bit of a wildcard, but shelter has been

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Speaker 2: a real problem here moving forward.

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Speaker 5: It just doesn't want to budget well.

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Speaker 3: It seems to be services excluding shelter because, as the

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Speaker 3: chairman said this week, the rents data has its measure

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Speaker 3: doesn't seem to be matching what's happening in the marketplace,

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Speaker 3: and so it is expected that as we get essentially

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Speaker 3: the shelter part of all this sort of better reflected

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Speaker 3: in the data, that the CPI in the shelter component

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Speaker 3: as well, services more broadly may behave better. But we know,

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Speaker 3: for example, there are all kinds of almost extraordinary things

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Speaker 3: going on in the economy that may not relent, and

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Speaker 3: I would point to things like the extraordinary increases in

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Speaker 3: the cost of car insurance that are caused by a

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Speaker 3: number of different factors. With climate change is part of that.

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Speaker 3: Some of them are sort of post pandemic impacts of

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Speaker 3: people not seeming be able to drive very well anymore,

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Speaker 3: but also the sharp rise in car prices and the

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Speaker 3: extraordinary costs associated with repairing a car. So obviously still

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Speaker 3: on the services side, but we do need to see

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Speaker 3: more disinflation resume on the good side, and if we

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Speaker 3: can get alignment, you know, for the most part on

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Speaker 3: both of those, we might be in a better shape.

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Speaker 3: And I think that's sort of the consensus expectation right now.

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Speaker 2: I'm glad we could get some time with you today, Mark,

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Speaker 2: don't be a stranger. Thanks for joining us on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: That's Mark Hamrick from bank Rate on this job's Day.

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Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew at World Headquarters in New York as

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Speaker 2: we balance a couple of stories today because in this city,

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump.

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Speaker 5: Is back in court, and so is Hope Hicks.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken

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Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

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Speaker 1: Rodoo with the Bloomberg Business Ad. You can also listen

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Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

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Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven.

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Speaker 2: This is a fascinating development here in the criminal trial,

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Speaker 2: the former president hush money trial, of course, that's now

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Speaker 2: under way. Hope Hicks, one of his closest associates over

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Speaker 2: the years, a personal assistant, who was always there to

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Speaker 2: take care of Donald Trump, is now testifying against him.

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Speaker 2: Speaking as we speak about the day she learned of

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Speaker 2: the access Hollywood tapes. Quite remarkable, she said. After getting

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Speaker 2: the email about the tape, she went to the twenty

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Speaker 2: fifth floor of Trump Tower to talk about it. Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump was doing debate prep at that moment in a

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Speaker 2: conference room with Jason Miller, Kelly and Conway, Steve Bann

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Speaker 2: and Jared Kushner and his no longer friend Chris Christi.

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Speaker 2: She verbally explained the email, She said to Trump, and

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Speaker 2: the group sought to quote absorb the shock of it unquote.

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Speaker 2: We're joined in studio here in New York right now

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Speaker 2: in the throes of this conversation by Dave Ehrenberg. Yes,

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Speaker 2: the Palm Beach County State Attorney is here and with

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Speaker 2: us in studio.

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Speaker 5: It's great to see you, sir, what a treatment.

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Speaker 6: Great to be back with you.

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Speaker 7: Joe.

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Speaker 5: Absolutely.

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Speaker 2: I don't know what's got you in Manhattan, but we're

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Speaker 2: watching this trial unfold here, and I believe you made

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Speaker 2: clear already at one point that Hope Hicks could be

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Speaker 2: the slam dunk testimony for the prosecution.

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Speaker 5: What are we learning so far well.

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Speaker 6: At first, she started by saying she doesn't remember being

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Speaker 6: in the room where they had that discussion between Pecker,

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Speaker 6: Cohen and anyone else in the room at the time.

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Speaker 6: I think it was in Trump himself back in August

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Speaker 6: twenty fifteen where everything hit the fan. They were trying

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Speaker 6: to plan a strategy to suppress these bad stories. Now

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Speaker 6: that's trouble that she doesn't remember that. How do you

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Speaker 6: not remember being in that meeting? You think you'd remember that.

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Speaker 6: She does remember, though, being on a conference call on

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Speaker 6: calls with these players. So she's going to help the prosecution,

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Speaker 6: but perhaps not as much as a state thought.

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Speaker 2: What do they want to hear from her today? When

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Speaker 2: is the job done?

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Speaker 6: They want to hear corroboration that Trump was part of

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Speaker 6: the scheme, and that this scheme was in response to

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Speaker 6: the Access Hollywood tape, because after they came out, people

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Speaker 6: thought the campaign was doomed and they couldn't afford another

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Speaker 6: Stormy Daniels to come out where there was more trash

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Speaker 6: about Trump, and so that's why they entered into the

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Speaker 6: scheme to influence the election. Because prosecutors have to prove

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Speaker 6: that not just there was a falsification of business records,

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Speaker 6: but it concealed a campaign finance crime, and that would

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Speaker 6: be the felony.

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Speaker 2: Is Hope Hicks testimony then more credible than Michael Cohen

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Speaker 2: or Stormy Daniels because of her prior relationship with Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: That's been the conventional wisdom.

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Speaker 6: Here, prior and current relationship.

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Speaker 5: You can are they still close?

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Speaker 6: Well, they're not enemies. She has no axigrind. I don't

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Speaker 6: know how close they are, but she has no axagrind.

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Speaker 6: That's why she's powerful for the state. You see, the

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Speaker 6: defense is going to try to discredit Michael Cohen, the

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Speaker 6: key witness, by saying, you guys hate each other, Michael

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Speaker 6: Cohen has prior felonies, all that stuff. They're going to

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Speaker 6: try to discredit David Pecker by saying you're under a

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Speaker 6: non prosecution agreement. It's in your incentive to deal with

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Speaker 6: the prosecuers and makeup stuff. And they've already tried to

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Speaker 6: discredit Davidson, Keith Davidson by saying you're a sleezebag, You

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Speaker 6: have sleez bag clients, You travel in this sleazy world

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Speaker 6: of paparazzi. Of course Trump travel in that world too,

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Speaker 6: but with Hope picks. What do they have? They have

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Speaker 6: a loyalist who's trying to do the right thing apparently

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Speaker 6: and tell the truth, although sometimes her memory seems to

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Speaker 6: be faltering, got it?

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Speaker 2: So what does cross examination look like for her?

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Speaker 6: Then they're going to try to poke holes in her testimony.

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Speaker 6: They're probably going to treat with kid gloves, Yeah, okay,

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Speaker 6: And they're going to try to say, you don't remember this,

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Speaker 6: you don't remember that, do you?

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Speaker 8: Yes?

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Speaker 6: And that's where they'll try to say, like, you know,

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Speaker 6: you can't rely on her to corroborate Michael Cohen when

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Speaker 6: she doesn't remember a lot of these specifics.

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Speaker 2: How about that there's a gag order ruling that we're

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Speaker 2: waiting for a second gag order ruling as well. Four

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Speaker 2: more violations alleged the hearing yesterday. Does that mean another

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Speaker 2: four thousand dollars which Donald Trump would probably write at

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Speaker 2: dinner anyway.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, it's pocket change for him, you know, as long

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Speaker 6: as they're going to find him, and they're pretty limited

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Speaker 6: to how much they can find him. They've got the

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Speaker 6: statute for one thousand dollars per violation, and Dug Mashawan

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Speaker 6: is stuck. If he really wants to ratchet it up.

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Speaker 6: He could put him in time out. They have like

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Speaker 6: a little holding cell inside that courtroom inside the Yeah,

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Speaker 6: I don't think they'll go to that. I mean, but

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Speaker 6: maybe there's no way he's going to be incarcerated pre trial.

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Speaker 6: But could he be put in a room to sit

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Speaker 6: there for a few hourly?

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Speaker 4: Do that?

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Speaker 2: Though he's got the authority to do it. The Secret

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Speaker 2: Service would have to have some kind of a sidebar, right,

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Speaker 2: how would that work?

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Speaker 6: And they could just put him in a room by.

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Speaker 5: Himself, give him an office and shut the door. Yeah, right,

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Speaker 5: time out.

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Speaker 6: That'll teach you. Yeah, yeah, So you know, he should

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Speaker 6: be treated like everyone else. In my mind, I mean,

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Speaker 6: if you violate a court's gag order, you should be sanctioned.

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Speaker 6: Defendants in my courthouse, if they criticize the judge or

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Speaker 6: witnesses yours, yeah you're done?

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Speaker 5: What done? You go to jail?

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Speaker 9: Or?

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Speaker 2: I mean what if Joe Matthew was standing in there

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Speaker 2: and I said that, you know, this guy's a sleezbag

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Speaker 2: and did all of that stuff?

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Speaker 5: Is there a first warning? I get it. Do I

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Speaker 5: start with a fine? Or would you actually lock me up?

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Speaker 10: Now?

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Speaker 6: They would start with a fine, and they'd a strong warning.

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Speaker 6: If you continue to do it, you would be wearing.

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Speaker 2: Ten to what now, fifteen violations that would be in jail.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, they'd fit you with some steel bracelets.

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Speaker 2: Okay, great, I mean, you know, we do need to

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Speaker 2: ask these questions, particularly as he talks about the weaponization

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Speaker 2: of the justice system, when he is in fact being

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Speaker 2: treated better than anyone else would be.

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Speaker 6: His supporters say that there's a two tier system of justice.

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Speaker 6: I would agree, but not in the way they're thinking.

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Speaker 6: I think he's being treated better. And the other defendant

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Speaker 6: who did this continually and intentionally violated the courts gag

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Speaker 6: order and went after the judge and his daughter, Oh yeah,

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Speaker 6: I mean they'd be picking up trash on the side

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Speaker 6: of the highway.

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Speaker 2: There seems to be a feeling, based on smarter minds

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Speaker 2: than mine who come on this program, that this trial

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Speaker 2: is not going to need six to eight weeks. We're

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Speaker 2: moving along here. What do you think of the timeline

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Speaker 2: at this point.

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Speaker 6: Judge Marshan is a no nonsense judge. She's moving things along.

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Speaker 6: It is pretty telling when Trump was complaining that he

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Speaker 6: can't be on the campaign trail because of this. This

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Speaker 6: is this is not right. But on the same time

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Speaker 6: he's also complaining how quickly the trial is going. So

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Speaker 6: you know, whatever it is, it's grievance on both sides.

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Speaker 6: Too fast, too slow, it's too cold in the court room.

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Speaker 6: Whatever it is, he's being treated unfairly. Bottom line is

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Speaker 6: judge's matter, and Judge Murshan wants this thing to get

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Speaker 6: finished sooner than later, and it will.

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Speaker 2: You know, he made clear yesterday on truth Social that

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Speaker 2: he's not been sleeping. Did you see that in the courtroom?

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Speaker 5: He said he was like.

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Speaker 2: He's closing his beautiful blue eyes.

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Speaker 5: Yes, it's taking it all in very poetic.

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Speaker 6: You know, he's got to keep up with images, right,

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Speaker 6: he's the alpha male, and alpha males don't fall asleep

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Speaker 6: during testimony, especially when he's calling the current president's sleepy Joe.

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Speaker 6: You can't use that, Moniker if you're falling asleep while

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Speaker 6: you're at your own trial.

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Speaker 2: I think I heard sleepy done at the White House

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Speaker 2: course Bonds dinner, right, that's already out there now.

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Speaker 6: Yes, I didn't know he had blew lies by the way.

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Speaker 5: He didn't.

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Speaker 6: No, I didn't pay that close attention.

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Speaker 5: Well, I think he said they're beautiful.

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Speaker 6: He did say they're beautiful blue eyes.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so maybe he'll be out of this thing sooner

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Speaker 2: than he thinks. At what point when this trial, when

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Speaker 2: the testimony resumes, how long will we wait for this

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Speaker 2: to go to the jury.

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Speaker 5: What's that process going to be like?

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Speaker 6: After the testimony is over, you'll have closing arguments and

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Speaker 6: then it goes to the jury right after the judge

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Speaker 6: reads the jury instructions, and then we'll see if you

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Speaker 6: can get a unanimous twelve member jury to agree on

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Speaker 6: a verdict. It could be a hung jury, and I

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Speaker 6: do think though it's very unlikely to be an acquittal.

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Speaker 6: The evidence that I've seen, the witnesses i've seen him

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Speaker 6: been pretty powerful. So if I had a guess, I

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Speaker 6: would say this is headed towards a conviction. Now. I

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Speaker 6: don't think he's going to serve any prison time for this.

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Speaker 6: I think he gets probation or maybe house arrests at most,

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Speaker 6: but he'll appeal whatever the final vertical will be.

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Speaker 2: Anyways, if he's found guilty, though, and he's brought in,

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Speaker 2: he's brought into the courthouse for all of that stuff

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Speaker 2: there he is, he's going to end up in a

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Speaker 2: room at some point that day, right, I mean, what

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Speaker 2: happens if he's found guilty and he's not given jail time.

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Speaker 2: Does he just walk out of there and get in

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Speaker 2: the suv or there's still going to be a long

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Speaker 2: day for him to do whatever is done with the

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Speaker 2: paperwork at the rest of it.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, he'll get processed, but he'll leave, He'll go home.

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Speaker 6: He's not going to be remanded to back into a

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Speaker 6: jail cell. And then he'll come back for sentencing, which

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Speaker 6: could take place a month later. And then the sentencing

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Speaker 6: I think will will not force him into jail. And

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Speaker 6: even if they did say your sentence includes incarceration, he

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Speaker 6: will appeal and then the appeals will last well beyond

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Speaker 6: the election.

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Speaker 5: I got it.

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Speaker 9: You're going to the courthouse now I'm flying home, okay. Yeah, man,

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Speaker 9: going back party in Palm Beach this week, and you

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Speaker 9: heard about that, right. Did you get invited, Marla, A

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Speaker 9: big Deep Steaks party.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, But somehow my invitation I think was.

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Speaker 2: Awso the man, I think it's is it in Hollywood floor, No,

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Speaker 2: it's in Palm Beach.

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Speaker 5: I didn't get mine either.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 6: Also, I'm not eligible to be VP because if you

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Speaker 6: come from the same state. Your electoral votes in Florida

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Speaker 6: will be tossed.

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Speaker 5: Marco Rubio is going to move to another state, is

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Speaker 5: what I heard?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, Yes, Marco Rubio is the VP nominee. I will

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Speaker 6: eat my ID badge that they gave me today at Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: If you're with us on YouTube, you see still he's

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Speaker 2: got the coolest pin in the room. Someday I want

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Speaker 2: one of those with the badge. Dave Ehrenberg, Palm Beach

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Speaker 2: County State Attorney, a great help to us getting through

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Speaker 2: this legal saga. And it's great to see you in person.

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Speaker 2: Dave here in New York at home safe. I'm Joe

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Speaker 2: Matthew at World Headquarters. This is balance of power. As

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Speaker 2: we add the voice of Tim O'Brien, What a perfect

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Speaker 2: day to have the senior executive editor of Bloomberg Opinion,

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Speaker 2: who of course wrote the book on Donald Trump. And Tim,

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Speaker 2: it's great to see you, welcome back. What is it

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Speaker 2: like for Donald Trump to see loyalists like Hope Hicks

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Speaker 2: sit on the stand today.

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Speaker 11: Well, I think he has to weigh whether people who

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Speaker 11: have traditionally been loyalists Joe are willing to sacrifice themselves

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Speaker 11: to someone who's always ed loyalty as a one way street,

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Speaker 11: and there are a lot of people around whom are

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Speaker 11: loyal to him, but they haven't been tested in a

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Speaker 11: court room. And I think one of the complications for

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Speaker 11: Hope Picks is she doesn't want to perjure herself in

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Speaker 11: this trial.

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Speaker 4: She really has nothing at stake.

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Speaker 11: Because she was a message bearer for Donald Trump. But

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Speaker 11: if she lied about things she knew about his relationship

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Speaker 11: with either of the women, and there's there's material evidence

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Speaker 11: that maybe what she said publicly was at odds with

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Speaker 11: what was an email or other people witnessed, I think

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Speaker 11: that she'll probably not want a toy with that reality

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Speaker 11: and run into deeper trouble simply in the interests of

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Speaker 11: being loyal to Donald Trump. So I assume she's speaking

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Speaker 11: her mind up there. I've been following it. I was

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Speaker 11: in the courtroom yesterday. I wasn't there today, and I'm

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Speaker 11: following her testimony right now at a distance, and she

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Speaker 11: seems to be preceding apace, and I have to believe

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Speaker 11: that that absolutely ranked as Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: Did you say you there yesterday, Tim, Yeah, I've gone on.

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Speaker 11: I've been I've been at the courthouse several times. Now, yeah,

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Speaker 11: and I was there yesterday.

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Speaker 2: Well, take me into the courtroom, especially with your view,

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Speaker 2: what are you seeing that.

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Speaker 11: The first thing to recognize, Joe is this is you know,

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Speaker 11: this is the criminal court of the New York State

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Speaker 11: Supreme Court, and both the civil and criminal branches of

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Speaker 11: the court are very bonfire of the vanities, venues populated

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Speaker 11: by judges with lots of different personalities, and lots of

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Speaker 11: cases have historically moved through those courtrooms that involve powerful

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Speaker 11: names in New York and scandalous comings and goings, and

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Speaker 11: this is probably one of the most epic cases in

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Speaker 11: that context to ever roll through there. And there's a

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Speaker 11: huge media gaggle every day. There are no Trump supporters

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Speaker 11: at all. He's been saying people are outside protesting with

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Speaker 11: It's speak, and virtually like the only guy out there

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Speaker 11: is a troubled man with a large bell and a

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Speaker 11: cross and some verbies about Trump on his T shirt,

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Speaker 11: walking around the park every morning, rigging his bell, starting

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Speaker 11: at about seven am, which is typically when I get there. Yeah,

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Speaker 11: reporters are shepherded in. There's a main courtroom where some

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Speaker 11: of our Bloomberg reporters are, and then there's a joint

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Speaker 11: overflow room, and I've been in the overflow room.

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Speaker 2: So you haven't made eye contact with him yet.

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Speaker 11: No, I have not made eye contact with Donald Trump.

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Speaker 11: I'm trying to, you know, I don't know the last time.

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Speaker 11: The last time he and I ran into each other

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Speaker 11: was at a White House correspondence dinner, the famous one

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Speaker 11: where Obama.

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Speaker 5: That was a fateful night for our nation.

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Speaker 11: If yeah, yeah, if we're to believe that that's when

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Speaker 11: Donald Trump decided to make a comeback.

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Speaker 4: But I think these other things were at work.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, if he gets elected, is the White House correspondents

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Speaker 2: dinner back on ice?

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Speaker 11: You know, I imagine it is. He has always hated

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Speaker 11: black tie events. He famously reporters. He loves reporters. He

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Speaker 11: hates bad coverage. He's a media addict. But he authentically

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Speaker 11: hates charitable events and black tie events. And you know,

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Speaker 11: Manhattan real estate it's lifeblood. Are these fundraisers that the

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Speaker 11: elite of the real estate community go to. And I

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Speaker 11: used to talk to him. I asked him a number

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Speaker 11: of times, why don't.

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Speaker 4: You go to these? And I hate those things.

440
00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:29,240
Speaker 11: You wouldn't find me dead in a black eye and

441
00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:31,880
Speaker 11: then in very blue language. He described me what he'd

442
00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:34,080
Speaker 11: rather be doing on a Saturday night that I can't

443
00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:35,200
Speaker 11: share on your radio show.

444
00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:38,240
Speaker 4: Okay, but I think he'd want.

445
00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:40,399
Speaker 11: Nothing to do with the White House Correspondence Center generally.

446
00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:44,560
Speaker 2: Is this wearing on him or is he emboldened by

447
00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:46,560
Speaker 2: being in court four days a week.

448
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:51,679
Speaker 11: I think the answer is yes to both of those questions,

449
00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:54,440
Speaker 11: but for different reasons. It is absolutely wearing a Donald

450
00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:58,800
Speaker 11: Trump is aged so significantly even since I think twenty

451
00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,560
Speaker 11: twenty two, but certainly since twenty twenty, and definitely since

452
00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:05,600
Speaker 11: twenty sixteen. He's a little more hunched over. His hair

453
00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:08,560
Speaker 11: is getting harder to paste in an effective peekaboo way

454
00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:11,400
Speaker 11: on the top of his head. His eyes are pouchy

455
00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:15,600
Speaker 11: and red. He is tired, as we know. He's nodding

456
00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:18,520
Speaker 11: off or at least going into some fugue state of

457
00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:22,920
Speaker 11: meditation during the court proceedings, and he hates being there.

458
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 4: He's not in control of the script.

459
00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:27,600
Speaker 11: This is the worst reality TV show a reality TV

460
00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 11: star could ever participate in, and he can't control the proceedings.

461
00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:33,960
Speaker 11: So yeah, and he doesn't want to go to jail

462
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:38,240
Speaker 11: for whatever bravado he puts out there. People close sum

463
00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 11: have said he does not want to go to jail.

464
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:42,800
Speaker 11: The testimony in this case. He had a porn star

465
00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:45,600
Speaker 11: into the front office of the Trump organization, which is

466
00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:50,800
Speaker 11: on the twenty sixth floor of Trump Tower, and his

467
00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,800
Speaker 11: residence where his wife was nursing their four month old child,

468
00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:56,399
Speaker 11: barn is about thirty floors above that. I don't know

469
00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 11: that he wants any of that out in the public,

470
00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:01,159
Speaker 11: and it's there now. Oh no, he doesn't like this.

471
00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:05,960
Speaker 11: On the other hand, I think he also is happy

472
00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:09,480
Speaker 11: to use it as a venue to make his case

473
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:12,480
Speaker 11: that he's a victim and he's being unfairly prosecuted.

474
00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:15,080
Speaker 2: I'm really glad you could join us today. I didn't

475
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,040
Speaker 2: realize it was your day off of court. Tim, thank

476
00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:21,240
Speaker 2: you for being there for us as you bring your

477
00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:24,720
Speaker 2: thoughts to Bloomberg Opinion. Find him on the terminal OPI

478
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:27,240
Speaker 2: and go or at Bloomberg dot com. Tim O'Brien, Bloomberg

479
00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 2: Opinion Senior executive editor, who, as I mentioned, wrote the

480
00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:31,800
Speaker 2: book on Donald Trump, and it's great to get his

481
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:36,920
Speaker 2: view here on social media. The former president quote, contrary

482
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:40,640
Speaker 2: to the fake news media, I don't fall asleep during

483
00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:47,440
Speaker 2: the crooked DA's witch hunt, especially not today. I simply

484
00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:52,040
Speaker 2: close my beautiful blue eyes, sometimes listen intensely and take

485
00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:54,520
Speaker 2: it all in kind of like here.

486
00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:55,879
Speaker 5: On Bloomberg Radio.

487
00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:02,760
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ketch

488
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:05,800
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at newon Eastern on Appo, CarPlay and

489
00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:08,959
Speaker 1: then Roudoro with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand

490
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:14,520
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

491
00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:18,160
Speaker 2: Following the release of this job's report, the headline says,

492
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:21,000
Speaker 2: at all US jobs post smallest gain in six months

493
00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:24,880
Speaker 2: as unemployment rises. We got reaction earlier today on Bloomberg

494
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 2: TV and Radio from the Acting Labor Secretary Julie Sue.

495
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:32,840
Speaker 12: Here, she is wage gains continue to outpace inflation. That

496
00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:36,320
Speaker 12: means that there's more money in workers' pockets. This is obviously,

497
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 12: as you say, this is a sign of how good

498
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 12: people feel, and a good job changes lives, and a

499
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:44,720
Speaker 12: good jobs with wages that are enough to sustain a

500
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:48,920
Speaker 12: family are really important, and we continue to combat inflation

501
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:50,040
Speaker 12: and high prices.

502
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:55,399
Speaker 13: Reaction from the Labor Department today. Now, let's get reaction

503
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 13: from the White House. Joining us now from the North

504
00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:00,320
Speaker 13: Lawn on Bloomberg TV. And radio is Heather Bousche, member

505
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:03,280
Speaker 13: of the Council of Economic Advisors. Heather, thank you so

506
00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:07,400
Speaker 13: much for being here on Bloomberg. Obviously, while we did

507
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 13: see some softening, perhaps it is not all too unexpected.

508
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:13,639
Speaker 13: The fact of the matter remains, though, that employment is

509
00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:16,680
Speaker 13: something of a lagging indicator. If we're starting to see

510
00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:19,879
Speaker 13: the softness show up in a more material way, now,

511
00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:22,679
Speaker 13: where do you expect that we will be by November?

512
00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 8: Well, today's report is really good news. You know, the

513
00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:30,280
Speaker 8: Secretary talk the Acting Secretary talked about it. You know,

514
00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 8: we have seen this unemployment rate below four percent for

515
00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:37,120
Speaker 8: whopping twenty seven months. That's the longest stretch going back

516
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:39,919
Speaker 8: over half a century. And we don't see a lot

517
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,560
Speaker 8: of signs of softening. When you dig under the hood

518
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 8: you look at the report. For example, we've seen that

519
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 8: for women who are between the ages of twenty five

520
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:51,800
Speaker 8: and fifty four, so the working age population, their labor

521
00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:55,800
Speaker 8: force participation and their employment rates have hit serious high

522
00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:58,320
Speaker 8: going back to nineteen forty eight when Rosie the Riveter

523
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 8: went home. And of course we also saw the block

524
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:03,320
Speaker 8: unemployment rate fall last month. So when you dig in,

525
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:05,560
Speaker 8: you actually see signs of people coming back into the

526
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 8: labor force. You see, you know, a strong labor market

527
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:11,680
Speaker 8: overall at that steady pace that we need to see

528
00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 8: at this point in the economic recovery.

529
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:16,840
Speaker 2: So slow and steady have been the magic words from

530
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 2: you from the get go, Heather, As we've been talking

531
00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:22,880
Speaker 2: about this since the very start of this administration, as

532
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 2: we consider the idea of a soft landing, is this

533
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:30,400
Speaker 2: actually more the definition of stable growth?

534
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 8: This is what you want to see at this point

535
00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:35,679
Speaker 8: in recovery. You know, our analysis at the Council of

536
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 8: Economic Advisors is that you need about one hundred thousand

537
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,439
Speaker 8: jobs per month just to keep pace with population growth.

538
00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 8: And at one hundred and seventy five thousand, you know,

539
00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:45,480
Speaker 8: in two hundred and forty some one thousand over the

540
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 8: past three months, we are certainly above that basic pace.

541
00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 8: And you know, we continue to see healthy gains in wages.

542
00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:55,760
Speaker 8: They've been abating in recent months, but certainly you see

543
00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 8: those steady gains and particularly those stronger gains for the

544
00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:01,719
Speaker 8: bottom eighty percent of the labor market that are production

545
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:04,680
Speaker 8: and non supervisory employees. These are the kinds of gains

546
00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:07,000
Speaker 8: that we want to see month after month, people being

547
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 8: able to go out there and get a job. That

548
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:12,119
Speaker 8: low unemployment rate, those jobs that are being available but

549
00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:14,480
Speaker 8: yet not so hot that it's overheating the economy.

550
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:18,480
Speaker 13: Well, how they're speaking of what we've seen month over month,

551
00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:21,760
Speaker 13: as you alluded to the statistic twenty seven months in

552
00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:25,119
Speaker 13: a row with an unemployment rate below four percent. When

553
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:28,280
Speaker 13: you're modeling out what's going to happen to unemployment as

554
00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 13: we move forward, when are we going to be breaking

555
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:32,800
Speaker 13: above that four percent level.

556
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:35,920
Speaker 8: Well, I'd like to see us break the next record

557
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 8: in that streak going so it's not just going back

558
00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:40,800
Speaker 8: for more than fifty years, but going back more than that.

559
00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:43,920
Speaker 8: You know, certainly, you know the president's goal from day

560
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:46,080
Speaker 8: one was to get people back to work, keep that

561
00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:50,359
Speaker 8: unemployment rate low. That is what helps boost wages across

562
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:53,160
Speaker 8: the country, makes it easy for folks who are out

563
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:55,080
Speaker 8: there who want a job to get into the labor market,

564
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:57,399
Speaker 8: to find that work, to switch jobs, and so we

565
00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:00,080
Speaker 8: certainly want to see that unemployment rate kept in that

566
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:02,960
Speaker 8: low space. It's one of the goals of what we

567
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:07,199
Speaker 8: mean by a strong, stable jobs recovery. And I just

568
00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:09,440
Speaker 8: want to emphasize that one of the things that we've

569
00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:12,320
Speaker 8: seen that I think has been really impressive in this recovery,

570
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:14,800
Speaker 8: of course, has been that we've hit these historic lows

571
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:18,800
Speaker 8: for black unemployment rate in the gap in the unemployment

572
00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:21,880
Speaker 8: rate across states. We aren't at those lows right this month,

573
00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:24,480
Speaker 8: but we have seen those, you know, over the past year,

574
00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:26,840
Speaker 8: and being able to see this kind of recovery that's

575
00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:30,200
Speaker 8: giving so much opportunity to people all across the country

576
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:33,280
Speaker 8: in a way that is equitable and is reaching into

577
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:35,720
Speaker 8: pockets of the economy that this is exactly what the

578
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:37,679
Speaker 8: President wants to see. It's good for the American people.

579
00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:41,400
Speaker 13: Well, Heather, I fully understand that the President would like

580
00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:44,560
Speaker 13: to see unemployment remaining below four percent. Is just a

581
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 13: question of whether or not that's going to continue to

582
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 13: be realistic if we're talking about policy that is still

583
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:52,600
Speaker 13: tight and the lagged effects of the tightening that we've

584
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:56,120
Speaker 13: seen starting to kick in more substantially. I just wonder

585
00:28:56,160 --> 00:29:00,640
Speaker 13: if realistically you think unemployment can stay this low, still

586
00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:02,920
Speaker 13: remain this high for much longer.

587
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 8: Well, you know, I cannot comment on FED policy, which

588
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:08,760
Speaker 8: I think is implicit in this question. I think you know,

589
00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:11,760
Speaker 8: what we are looking to see is the President has

590
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:14,520
Speaker 8: made all of these investments all across the United States,

591
00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 8: investments in infrastructure, investments in new technology and manufacturing and

592
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 8: good jobs, and we are still seeing those play out.

593
00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 8: We have had these very high numbers for investment, investment

594
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 8: in the construction of new manufacturing facilities.

595
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:28,600
Speaker 4: We are seeing.

596
00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:32,760
Speaker 8: Shovels in the ground for all these infrastructure projects, and

597
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:36,160
Speaker 8: so I remain optimistic that as we see this recovery progress,

598
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:38,920
Speaker 8: we'll be able to keep this kind of steady job gains.

599
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:42,160
Speaker 8: We've been able to deliver this for years now, and

600
00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 8: this is the economy. It's been a little engine that could.

601
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:46,680
Speaker 8: But we have a lot of you know, investment that

602
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 8: still has yet to come, and hopefully that will give

603
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 8: some strength to the labor market. And we're starting from

604
00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:52,680
Speaker 8: very solid foundation here.

605
00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:55,320
Speaker 2: Spending time with Heather Bouchet, who's talking with us live

606
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:58,280
Speaker 2: from the White House on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Heather,

607
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 2: we started the program with a special con with the

608
00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:03,720
Speaker 2: former Saint Louis FED President Jim Bullard. By the way,

609
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:06,240
Speaker 2: this is not a question about FED policy, don't worry,

610
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:08,840
Speaker 2: but he did say that a soft landing for the

611
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:12,840
Speaker 2: US economy is in view. Do you agree at this point?

612
00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:14,960
Speaker 2: Is it already happening. Is this the type of report

613
00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:15,840
Speaker 2: that confirms that.

614
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:19,480
Speaker 8: Well, you know, as we have seen month after month,

615
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:21,320
Speaker 8: and I've talked to you and you know, folks around

616
00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 8: the country about this, this is that kind of stable growth,

617
00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 8: you know, a soft landing implies, you know that we

618
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 8: already know exactly what's happened, that it's in the rear

619
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 8: view mirror, but we're living this in real time. So

620
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:34,440
Speaker 8: I think that you know, as we watch the data

621
00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:36,560
Speaker 8: as we always do, this is the kind of the

622
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 8: recovery we want to see. And you know, of course,

623
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:40,200
Speaker 8: on top of it, you know, we have seen that

624
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:42,480
Speaker 8: you know, prices have come down sixty percent from their peak.

625
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:44,920
Speaker 8: We've actually seen over the past year the prices for

626
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:49,480
Speaker 8: some goods facing consumers like milk and eggs and used

627
00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:51,800
Speaker 8: cars and airline fares, you know, those are lower than

628
00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:53,840
Speaker 8: they were a year ago. So we have seen some

629
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:57,040
Speaker 8: relief for families over time. And I think combined, this

630
00:30:57,240 --> 00:30:59,080
Speaker 8: is the kind of you know, trying to find that

631
00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:01,040
Speaker 8: sweet spot where you can keep growing and you keep

632
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:03,760
Speaker 8: adding jobs and you keep making sure that workers receive

633
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:05,240
Speaker 8: their fair pay.

634
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 13: Heather, we were speaking earlier this week with someone from

635
00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 13: the groundwork collaborative. It used to work alongside Elizabeth Warren

636
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:15,600
Speaker 13: when we were talking about the way that FED policy,

637
00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:18,120
Speaker 13: which I won't ask you to comment on directly what

638
00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:19,800
Speaker 13: the Fed should do with this policy, but the way

639
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:21,880
Speaker 13: that it is transmitting in the economy. Now that we

640
00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:24,959
Speaker 13: have seen something of a stagnation in progress in getting

641
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:30,680
Speaker 13: inflation down, it bears questioning whether or not actually just

642
00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:33,280
Speaker 13: pure interest rate policy is going to be able to

643
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:35,640
Speaker 13: get us that last mile down to two percent or

644
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:38,600
Speaker 13: is it going to take something else, like more action

645
00:31:39,240 --> 00:31:40,280
Speaker 13: from this administration.

646
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:45,000
Speaker 8: Well, you know, this president has remained committed to lowering

647
00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:48,040
Speaker 8: you know, pain points for families in terms of prices

648
00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 8: across the economy, is taking a series of steps, you know,

649
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:53,960
Speaker 8: a series of steps for example on junk fees, you know,

650
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:57,120
Speaker 8: making it possible for you know, consumers to not face

651
00:31:57,240 --> 00:31:59,600
Speaker 8: those fees that just add up those hidden fate those

652
00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:01,960
Speaker 8: hidden fees. You know. I often think of, you know,

653
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:04,760
Speaker 8: what the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is done with credit

654
00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:08,280
Speaker 8: card fees for consumers. But that's just one example of

655
00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 8: the variety of the ways that the President is focused

656
00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:12,880
Speaker 8: on lowering prices. Name about what he's done to lower

657
00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:15,680
Speaker 8: prescription drug prices, lower the price of insulin, lower the

658
00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:18,440
Speaker 8: price of health care for families. You know, all of

659
00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:22,280
Speaker 8: this adds up and gives relief to families pocketbooks. The

660
00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:25,240
Speaker 8: President has been focused on creating these jobs and you

661
00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:28,480
Speaker 8: addressing real problems facing families all across the country.

662
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:32,600
Speaker 2: Heather, it's hard to underscore the impact that immigration is

663
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 2: having on our job market right now. It's born out

664
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 2: in the numbers, and I wonder to what extent the

665
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 2: White House will make the case in the coming months,

666
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:44,959
Speaker 2: in the coming days that immigration is an important driver

667
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:48,160
Speaker 2: of our job market and is in fact having an

668
00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 2: impact potentially for the better on inflation.

669
00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:54,320
Speaker 8: How would you answer that, Well, you know, the President

670
00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:56,720
Speaker 8: came into office, he had an immigration plan that he

671
00:32:56,800 --> 00:32:59,480
Speaker 8: released on day one. You know, he has worked to

672
00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 8: find sensible solutions here. You know, certainly, what we want

673
00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:04,600
Speaker 8: to see in the labor market is you want to

674
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:06,520
Speaker 8: see those folks who are on the sidelines, who want

675
00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:08,600
Speaker 8: to get into the labor force, you know, get access

676
00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:10,440
Speaker 8: to those jobs. It's why I point into the fact

677
00:33:10,440 --> 00:33:13,000
Speaker 8: that you have this historic high and labor force participation

678
00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:15,800
Speaker 8: among women between the ages of twenty five to fifty four,

679
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:19,240
Speaker 8: and you've seen good numbers on labor force participation. More generally,

680
00:33:19,680 --> 00:33:22,360
Speaker 8: that's people coming into the labor market seeing those those

681
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 8: economic opportunities.

682
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:27,800
Speaker 2: Heather Bouchet of the White House Council of Economic Advisors

683
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:29,720
Speaker 2: with us live from the North Lawn at the White House. Heather,

684
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 2: it's great to see you. Thanks for coming back to

685
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:34,080
Speaker 2: talk to us today on balance of power. I'm Joe

686
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:37,400
Speaker 2: Matthew in New York. Kayley Lines is in Washington, and Kayley,

687
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:40,640
Speaker 2: it's just a remarkable reminder on what a difference a

688
00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:44,880
Speaker 2: single day's data could make on sentiment, if not infestrates themselves.

689
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:48,280
Speaker 13: Yeah, I mean, think about the round trip we have

690
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:51,240
Speaker 13: made in terms of expectations for FED cuts, which Heather

691
00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:54,000
Speaker 13: Bouche would not talk to us about. We started the

692
00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:56,760
Speaker 13: year thinking the Fed might cut up to six times,

693
00:33:57,160 --> 00:33:59,000
Speaker 13: then we were down to one cut. It seems that

694
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:01,040
Speaker 13: we're pricing more of them back in on what many

695
00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 13: are saying is of Goldilock's jobs report. And we know,

696
00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:06,920
Speaker 13: Joe that President Biden is standing by his prediction last

697
00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:09,479
Speaker 13: we heard that there will be rate cuts this year.

698
00:34:09,640 --> 00:34:12,200
Speaker 2: Well, he may seem pressient at this point, and we

699
00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:15,000
Speaker 2: all know this has a direct impact to what is

700
00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:18,239
Speaker 2: happening on the campaign trail, and where we're going to be, say,

701
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:22,800
Speaker 2: post Labor Day, when people really start paying attention, Kaylee.

702
00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:26,640
Speaker 2: Young people who are actually watching interest rates with hopes

703
00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:28,879
Speaker 2: to buy their first home, people who are of course

704
00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:31,480
Speaker 2: looking at the gas pump every time they need to

705
00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:33,040
Speaker 2: fill up their car. All of that's going to really

706
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:37,799
Speaker 2: start combining and colliding into people making opinions that are

707
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:41,239
Speaker 2: going to last until November. So they are hoping, no

708
00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:43,799
Speaker 2: matter what they can say or not say about the FED,

709
00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 2: they're hoping that cuts are coming.

710
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:48,200
Speaker 14: Yeah.

711
00:34:48,239 --> 00:34:50,640
Speaker 13: Absolutely, it's going to make a difference the timing of

712
00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:52,880
Speaker 13: those cuts. And of course we heard from Chairman Powell

713
00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:55,480
Speaker 13: in the press conference earlier this week saying they don't

714
00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:58,279
Speaker 13: think about the political context at all. So all the

715
00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:01,400
Speaker 13: market expectation that be hard to cut in September just

716
00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:04,760
Speaker 13: ahead of the election or November just after it, maybe

717
00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:07,160
Speaker 13: that is a not so much the case if you're

718
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:08,600
Speaker 13: actually sitting on the FMC.

719
00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:09,200
Speaker 5: That's right.

720
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:11,680
Speaker 2: Let's assemble the panel to get their take on another

721
00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:14,120
Speaker 2: important news day. Genie Schanzano was with us, of course,

722
00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributor Democratic Analysts joined today by Republican strategist

723
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:22,080
Speaker 2: Lisa Camuso Milner, the former RNC communications director at host

724
00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 2: of the Friday Reporter podcast, What's to take here? Genie,

725
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:27,879
Speaker 2: Goldilocks is a word we keep throwing around. The fact

726
00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:31,240
Speaker 2: of the matter is a slowing job market, not exactly.

727
00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:33,080
Speaker 2: The greatest story for the White House to be telling

728
00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:35,880
Speaker 2: is exactly what they want, isn't it.

729
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:37,880
Speaker 10: It absolutely is, And I think you could hear it

730
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 10: in both your great interview with Heather Bouche and the

731
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:43,279
Speaker 10: and you know Julie Sue's comments. You can hear they

732
00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:46,280
Speaker 10: are elated by this report. It is all good news.

733
00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 10: I mean it was only you know, just a few

734
00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:50,640
Speaker 10: days ago people were saying we wouldn't see a cut

735
00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:53,440
Speaker 10: until after the election. Now the possibility it may come

736
00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:56,760
Speaker 10: earlier has opened up. So that is all good news

737
00:35:56,760 --> 00:36:00,600
Speaker 10: for the White House. From a campaign perspective, I think

738
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:03,440
Speaker 10: the Biden campaign, and I know they will, has to

739
00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:06,920
Speaker 10: keep their eye on the ball. You cannot tell people

740
00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:11,240
Speaker 10: about good numbers. That is not going to work. So yes,

741
00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:15,080
Speaker 10: you know, all of his supporters and everything else they

742
00:36:15,120 --> 00:36:17,560
Speaker 10: know these numbers are good. But for the people on

743
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:20,480
Speaker 10: the ground in these key seven states, this is more

744
00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:24,400
Speaker 10: about talking about what Donald Trump has said CNBC. He

745
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:27,200
Speaker 10: says he's going to cut Social Security. That has to

746
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:29,520
Speaker 10: go out. They have to be focusing on the threat

747
00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:32,520
Speaker 10: Donald Trump is to the economy, not trying to sell

748
00:36:32,600 --> 00:36:36,279
Speaker 10: Joe Biden's accomplishments. Let the data speak for itself and

749
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:38,839
Speaker 10: talk about the threat that is looming if people vote

750
00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:42,280
Speaker 10: for Donald Trump. Rather, that's the campaign strategy.

751
00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:46,080
Speaker 13: Well, certainly, when the data was looking better than it

752
00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:48,560
Speaker 13: is now, when we were talking of payrolls growth north

753
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:51,920
Speaker 13: of three hundred thousand plus, he still wasn't getting credit

754
00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:55,319
Speaker 13: for the economy. So I understand that sentiment. Genie, does

755
00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:58,560
Speaker 13: that mean, Lisa? For Republicans, the economy is going to

756
00:36:58,600 --> 00:37:01,320
Speaker 13: be the best issue. If Biden can't talk about it,

757
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:03,919
Speaker 13: or talk about it well enough, frame it well enough

758
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:06,239
Speaker 13: for voters to actually give him credit for it, then

759
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:08,920
Speaker 13: that's all opportunity to the other side.

760
00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:12,560
Speaker 15: Absolutely, Kelly. I mean, I think more than anything, Genie

761
00:37:12,560 --> 00:37:13,920
Speaker 15: took the words right out of my mouth. I mean,

762
00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:16,520
Speaker 15: regardless of how good the numbers are, you can't tell

763
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 15: people how the economy is performing if they don't feel

764
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:21,880
Speaker 15: that way. And so that's why we talk about consumer sentiment.

765
00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:24,320
Speaker 15: And we talk about a variety of other things, because.

766
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:27,600
Speaker 16: That's really the way that people approach election day, right,

767
00:37:27,680 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 16: So Republicans will be doing everything they can to define

768
00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:34,479
Speaker 16: and continue to define this White House is not being

769
00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 16: good on the economy, even though the data says otherwise.

770
00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:39,120
Speaker 6: And so this is the word.

771
00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:40,799
Speaker 16: This is the word verse word.

772
00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:43,160
Speaker 15: Game that's going to happen between now and November in

773
00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:45,920
Speaker 15: a way that's going to get harder and more difficult

774
00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:48,759
Speaker 15: to navigate. So sure, in the playbook for Republicans, it's

775
00:37:48,760 --> 00:37:51,000
Speaker 15: to talk about how Joe Biden's not great for the economy.

776
00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:52,759
Speaker 15: And in the playbook for the Democrats, they're going to

777
00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:54,400
Speaker 15: do the same and talk about how Donald Trump is

778
00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:56,799
Speaker 15: not doing what they need to excuse me, would not

779
00:37:56,880 --> 00:37:58,960
Speaker 15: do what he needs to do in order to continue

780
00:37:59,000 --> 00:37:59,440
Speaker 15: to grow it.

781
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:04,279
Speaker 2: Let's distill this conversation into a simple question. Jennie Shan say, noh,

782
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:08,160
Speaker 2: does Joe Biden need interest rate cuts to win reelection?

783
00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:13,600
Speaker 10: You know, they would be amazing, Joe Matthew, that would

784
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:16,919
Speaker 10: be great. He's hoping for them. You know, he would

785
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:19,839
Speaker 10: probably tell you he doesn't need them, he can't control them.

786
00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:23,680
Speaker 10: The economy, of course, is gonna matter. But again, there

787
00:38:23,880 --> 00:38:27,719
Speaker 10: is no majority out there just so excited to vote

788
00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:30,600
Speaker 10: for Joe Biden. So the way they have to frame

789
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:35,080
Speaker 10: this electorally is Donald Trump the threat to everything Joe

790
00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 10: Biden has achieved. And you know, it's hard for us

791
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:40,680
Speaker 10: not to talk about our own individual accomplishments, which is

792
00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:43,040
Speaker 10: what this campaign wants to do. And Joe Biden, look,

793
00:38:43,080 --> 00:38:45,799
Speaker 10: I did this, this, and this, stop it. Don't talk

794
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:48,200
Speaker 10: about what you've done, talk about what the other guy

795
00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:52,080
Speaker 10: will do. You're the incumbent. This is a referendum on you.

796
00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:54,719
Speaker 10: He is a threat to what you've achieved. But you've

797
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:57,400
Speaker 10: got to stop talking about achievements and focus on threat.

798
00:38:58,040 --> 00:38:59,920
Speaker 10: There's no plainer way to say it. And they have

799
00:39:00,120 --> 00:39:02,839
Speaker 10: the benefit of it, you know, having an opponent who

800
00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:05,000
Speaker 10: should keep his mouth shut and let the attention be

801
00:39:05,080 --> 00:39:08,000
Speaker 10: on Joe Biden, but always wants to talk about himself.

802
00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:09,280
Speaker 10: So let him.

803
00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:13,240
Speaker 13: And of course he's in court again today. We'll probably

804
00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:16,360
Speaker 13: hear from him as he's walking out at the end

805
00:39:16,400 --> 00:39:19,279
Speaker 13: of the proceedings today. As usual, Genie Shanzo and Lisa

806
00:39:19,280 --> 00:39:21,160
Speaker 13: Caamusa Miller will be sticking with us. We have much

807
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:24,240
Speaker 13: more to discuss with them, including Joe another big problem

808
00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:27,400
Speaker 13: for President Biden. The economy is not the only issue

809
00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:30,279
Speaker 13: on the list for this incumbent president. Increasingly it is

810
00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:33,960
Speaker 13: his policy toward Israel and the ramifications of that, including

811
00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:37,360
Speaker 13: what we have seen playing out on college campuses across

812
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:37,880
Speaker 13: the country.

813
00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:44,319
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

814
00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:47,239
Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play

815
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:49,680
Speaker 1: and then roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business app. You

816
00:39:49,719 --> 00:39:52,960
Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

817
00:39:53,040 --> 00:39:56,840
Speaker 1: New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

818
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:02,640
Speaker 2: I'm Jill Matthew in New York. Kaylee Lines is in Washington.

819
00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:04,720
Speaker 2: Coming up, We're going to spend some time with Jessica

820
00:40:04,800 --> 00:40:08,759
Speaker 2: Kavanaugh of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace with the

821
00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:13,120
Speaker 2: latest and a potential cease fire between Israel and Hamas

822
00:40:13,200 --> 00:40:15,440
Speaker 2: right now. It's a pleasure, though, to bring in my

823
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:18,920
Speaker 2: colleague here in New York, Anne Marie hor Durn, with

824
00:40:18,960 --> 00:40:21,800
Speaker 2: an important conversation we've been looking forward to. A Member

825
00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:24,360
Speaker 2: of Parliament is with us here at World Headquarters. Alex

826
00:40:24,400 --> 00:40:27,000
Speaker 2: Berghardt and Anne Marie will hand things over to you.

827
00:40:27,360 --> 00:40:29,239
Speaker 14: Thank you so much. Joe, that's right. I'm joined by

828
00:40:29,239 --> 00:40:32,759
Speaker 14: Alex Burghart, UK Cabinet Office Minister leading on AI in

829
00:40:32,800 --> 00:40:35,080
Speaker 14: the public sector. I want to start out with your

830
00:40:35,160 --> 00:40:38,319
Speaker 14: role in artificial intelligence. This role wouldn't exist even as

831
00:40:39,080 --> 00:40:40,400
Speaker 14: two or three years ago, and need to live in

832
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:43,120
Speaker 14: the United Kingdom. We've seen this government, led by the

833
00:40:43,120 --> 00:40:46,600
Speaker 14: Prime Minister Rishi Sunac really want to invest and hone

834
00:40:46,680 --> 00:40:49,680
Speaker 14: AI even within the government. I know you're in the

835
00:40:49,680 --> 00:40:52,799
Speaker 14: beta mode of this red box. Tell us a little

836
00:40:52,800 --> 00:40:55,600
Speaker 14: bit about what you're doing, what you're focused on, and

837
00:40:55,920 --> 00:40:57,560
Speaker 14: how the government could potentially harness this.

838
00:40:57,960 --> 00:41:00,120
Speaker 17: Thanks Am Marie, thank you for having me on and

839
00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:01,839
Speaker 17: it's great to be in New York to talk about

840
00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:03,720
Speaker 17: the work we're doing in the UK government at the moment.

841
00:41:04,080 --> 00:41:07,080
Speaker 17: As you said, the Prime Minister is really passionate about AI.

842
00:41:07,239 --> 00:41:10,080
Speaker 17: We held the first AI safety summit that the world

843
00:41:10,080 --> 00:41:13,759
Speaker 17: has seen last year, very very productive. But the work

844
00:41:13,760 --> 00:41:16,080
Speaker 17: that I'm doing is on how we can deploy AI

845
00:41:16,280 --> 00:41:19,239
Speaker 17: for the public good and that means how we can

846
00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:22,719
Speaker 17: You know, it's about eighteen months ago we sat down

847
00:41:22,719 --> 00:41:25,680
Speaker 17: and said this new technology is emerging potentially one of

848
00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:28,200
Speaker 17: the great leaps forward. How are we going to harness

849
00:41:28,239 --> 00:41:31,160
Speaker 17: it to improve the quality of public services and drive

850
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:34,000
Speaker 17: down costs for the taxpayer. And there's a number of

851
00:41:34,080 --> 00:41:36,560
Speaker 17: ways in which that's emerging. And the first is that

852
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:40,560
Speaker 17: you can now automate tasks like never before. And I

853
00:41:40,760 --> 00:41:44,000
Speaker 17: have you mentioned Red Box, which is named after the

854
00:41:44,040 --> 00:41:46,880
Speaker 17: you know, the red ministerial box that British ministers carry around.

855
00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:49,600
Speaker 14: I still hope they'll do that for show and the Yeah.

856
00:41:49,719 --> 00:41:50,279
Speaker 5: Absolutely.

857
00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:54,040
Speaker 17: But what we now have we've been building as a

858
00:41:54,080 --> 00:41:58,480
Speaker 17: tool that can summarize huge documents very very quickly, that

859
00:41:58,520 --> 00:42:00,880
Speaker 17: can relate them to what's been going on in Parliament,

860
00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:04,040
Speaker 17: what's been going on in the press, and can pull

861
00:42:04,080 --> 00:42:06,640
Speaker 17: out kind of key points that ministers need to focus on.

862
00:42:06,960 --> 00:42:11,000
Speaker 17: And that's saving my private office hundreds of hours. But

863
00:42:11,080 --> 00:42:13,880
Speaker 17: it's also starting to build a tool that is going

864
00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:18,720
Speaker 17: to create institutional memory, recreate institutional memory in our government department.

865
00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:21,360
Speaker 17: So you know, when we're starting out on a project,

866
00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:23,440
Speaker 17: we'll be able to ask, have we tried something like

867
00:42:23,480 --> 00:42:25,960
Speaker 17: this before? Why didn't we carry on with it? You

868
00:42:26,000 --> 00:42:29,000
Speaker 17: know what was good about it? So that huge resource

869
00:42:29,000 --> 00:42:34,800
Speaker 17: of documentation that's currently lying unused in government is going

870
00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:36,200
Speaker 17: to come back into play.

871
00:42:36,360 --> 00:42:39,160
Speaker 14: So two questions immediately come to mind. One talent and

872
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:42,160
Speaker 14: the other security. Let's start with talent first. If you

873
00:42:42,200 --> 00:42:45,239
Speaker 14: work in AI, you can get paid handsomely going to

874
00:42:45,280 --> 00:42:48,719
Speaker 14: say open AI. How do you attract that talent to say,

875
00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:50,440
Speaker 14: come work as a civil servant.

876
00:42:50,560 --> 00:42:52,840
Speaker 17: It's a great question. We were really worried about this

877
00:42:52,920 --> 00:42:57,120
Speaker 17: at the start because we can't pay that money. And

878
00:42:57,200 --> 00:43:00,560
Speaker 17: you know, I've got a really great head of the program,

879
00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:02,440
Speaker 17: Laura Gilbert, who's out in New York with me at

880
00:43:02,440 --> 00:43:06,600
Speaker 17: the moment, and she said, as long as we can

881
00:43:06,640 --> 00:43:10,120
Speaker 17: pay something bit more than we pay our normal civil servants.

882
00:43:10,440 --> 00:43:14,600
Speaker 17: What we have is data. We have really good data,

883
00:43:14,880 --> 00:43:18,920
Speaker 17: lots of centralized data. And if you are an AI addict,

884
00:43:19,000 --> 00:43:22,160
Speaker 17: if you're one of these super smart, crazy clever people

885
00:43:22,360 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 17: who wants to get involved, the thing you want to

886
00:43:24,160 --> 00:43:27,880
Speaker 17: play with is data. And so we've we've been looking

887
00:43:27,920 --> 00:43:31,200
Speaker 17: at huge quantities of data and things like public prescriptions

888
00:43:31,400 --> 00:43:36,320
Speaker 17: health service, looking how we can improve the quality of prescriptions,

889
00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:39,600
Speaker 17: drive down cost. We've been looking at how we can

890
00:43:39,880 --> 00:43:42,480
Speaker 17: eliminate fraud and error in the benefit system. We have

891
00:43:43,200 --> 00:43:47,080
Speaker 17: two hundred and eighty billion pound benefit and pension system

892
00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:49,920
Speaker 17: and we currently employ thousands and thousands of people to

893
00:43:50,000 --> 00:43:52,080
Speaker 17: check for fraud. We think we're going to be able

894
00:43:52,120 --> 00:43:54,200
Speaker 17: to vastly reduce that and improve.

895
00:43:54,000 --> 00:43:55,840
Speaker 14: So attracted that talent hasn't been an issue.

896
00:43:55,960 --> 00:43:59,759
Speaker 17: No, No, we've We've been really pleasantly surprised that loads

897
00:43:59,800 --> 00:44:03,600
Speaker 17: of people have applied and they've passed our very very

898
00:44:03,600 --> 00:44:04,680
Speaker 17: stringent tests to get in.

899
00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:07,399
Speaker 14: The one concern as well as security. You put all

900
00:44:07,440 --> 00:44:11,560
Speaker 14: of this now, documents that live in a cloud, you're

901
00:44:11,600 --> 00:44:14,920
Speaker 14: working more with AI. How do you safeguard that to

902
00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:16,120
Speaker 14: say adversaries?

903
00:44:16,400 --> 00:44:20,440
Speaker 17: Yeah, it's a central question and we have a very

904
00:44:20,480 --> 00:44:26,400
Speaker 17: effective security service in the UK and we're constantly learning

905
00:44:26,480 --> 00:44:30,000
Speaker 17: from partners. I was out in talent in Estonia right

906
00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:33,520
Speaker 17: on the fringes of NATO a few weeks ago, learning

907
00:44:33,520 --> 00:44:36,759
Speaker 17: from them because they were party to some enormous cyber

908
00:44:36,760 --> 00:44:41,040
Speaker 17: attacks a few years ago and have become very very resilient.

909
00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:43,960
Speaker 17: So it's uppermost in our mind when we're vetting people,

910
00:44:44,520 --> 00:44:46,920
Speaker 17: but also when we're building systems to make sure that

911
00:44:46,960 --> 00:44:51,760
Speaker 17: they're not that they can't be attacked by enemy operator.

912
00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:54,200
Speaker 14: If you use AI in the defense sector in the

913
00:44:54,280 --> 00:44:58,120
Speaker 14: UK government, how important is it that all that technology

914
00:44:58,200 --> 00:45:02,640
Speaker 14: comes in house out of House well because of these concerns.

915
00:45:02,680 --> 00:45:06,600
Speaker 17: No, no, I think it's not just defense. Right when

916
00:45:06,640 --> 00:45:09,560
Speaker 17: we were starting out, we could easily have gone and

917
00:45:09,640 --> 00:45:12,440
Speaker 17: picked a number of big companies, Big UK companies have

918
00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:17,400
Speaker 17: fantastic a sector in London. But we wanted to understand

919
00:45:17,400 --> 00:45:20,640
Speaker 17: this technology ourselves. So we've hired this cracked team of

920
00:45:20,760 --> 00:45:24,520
Speaker 17: thirty people going up to seventy who are going to

921
00:45:24,560 --> 00:45:26,560
Speaker 17: be able to build bespoke systems for us.

922
00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:26,799
Speaker 4: Now.

923
00:45:26,920 --> 00:45:30,160
Speaker 17: In the future, I think there'll be a case of

924
00:45:30,360 --> 00:45:33,680
Speaker 17: some stuff we will build ourselves and use many times,

925
00:45:33,719 --> 00:45:38,240
Speaker 17: some stuff we will build bespoke for particular apartments perhaps

926
00:45:38,280 --> 00:45:42,840
Speaker 17: like defense, and some things we will buy in. But

927
00:45:43,840 --> 00:45:46,879
Speaker 17: having people who actually know how it works and know

928
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:49,720
Speaker 17: what government's needs are I think is central to getting

929
00:45:49,760 --> 00:45:50,560
Speaker 17: this revolution right.

930
00:45:50,920 --> 00:45:52,600
Speaker 14: I know you're in New York, so you're missing all

931
00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:55,920
Speaker 14: the morning press in the UK after a critical election

932
00:45:56,320 --> 00:45:59,600
Speaker 14: last night, and you know you saw the Bellwether parliamentary

933
00:45:59,640 --> 00:46:02,880
Speaker 14: seat that the Conservatives lost. Do you honestly think the

934
00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:05,640
Speaker 14: Conservative Party if the elections are going to be held

935
00:46:05,640 --> 00:46:07,280
Speaker 14: this year at some point I know the Prime Minister

936
00:46:07,320 --> 00:46:09,000
Speaker 14: said at the second half of the year, do you

937
00:46:09,040 --> 00:46:11,120
Speaker 14: think the current Conservives will be able to hold onto power.

938
00:46:11,480 --> 00:46:13,399
Speaker 17: I do think they will be able to and I'll

939
00:46:13,400 --> 00:46:16,520
Speaker 17: tell you what. Look, we've had a tough night. The

940
00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:18,840
Speaker 17: truth is that in twenty twenty one, when this cycle

941
00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:22,360
Speaker 17: of elections was last on, we had a vaccine bounce

942
00:46:22,560 --> 00:46:24,479
Speaker 17: that was a very good year for us. We always

943
00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:28,320
Speaker 17: suspected we might come down. But there is a silver

944
00:46:28,400 --> 00:46:30,759
Speaker 17: lining to this cloud, and it's the fact that Ben

945
00:46:30,800 --> 00:46:34,359
Speaker 17: Houchin are mayor in Teesside, in the northeast, traditionally quite

946
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:36,839
Speaker 17: a deprived part of the country, which under the Conservatives

947
00:46:36,880 --> 00:46:40,359
Speaker 17: is now flourishing. He's won, he's held on, He's done

948
00:46:40,360 --> 00:46:42,680
Speaker 17: a very good job there, and I think when it

949
00:46:42,719 --> 00:46:45,040
Speaker 17: comes to the election and people actually have to make

950
00:46:45,080 --> 00:46:46,839
Speaker 17: a choice about who they want to see in power

951
00:46:46,840 --> 00:46:49,279
Speaker 17: for the next five years, is it going to be

952
00:46:49,400 --> 00:46:52,680
Speaker 17: the Prime Minister and the Conservatives that has got us

953
00:46:52,719 --> 00:46:56,840
Speaker 17: through COVID, that has seen off inflation and the energy

954
00:46:56,840 --> 00:46:59,759
Speaker 17: crisis and has a plan for the future, or is

955
00:46:59,800 --> 00:47:01,759
Speaker 17: it to be a Labor party that really has no

956
00:47:01,880 --> 00:47:04,160
Speaker 17: plan and no agenda. I think they're going to come

957
00:47:04,160 --> 00:47:04,440
Speaker 17: with us.

958
00:47:04,960 --> 00:47:08,200
Speaker 14: Do now regret though potentially removing Boris Johnson, just from

959
00:47:08,200 --> 00:47:09,640
Speaker 14: an electability point of view.

960
00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:15,399
Speaker 17: No, I don't because Boris certainly had his strengths, but

961
00:47:15,840 --> 00:47:20,480
Speaker 17: things weren't working out and he made some mistakes and

962
00:47:20,880 --> 00:47:23,240
Speaker 17: we couldn't have pretended that those mistakes haven't harmed.

963
00:47:23,280 --> 00:47:25,480
Speaker 14: Besides Ai, which I know the Prime Minister is really

964
00:47:25,480 --> 00:47:27,880
Speaker 14: focused on, but a lot of that has feels a

965
00:47:27,880 --> 00:47:31,200
Speaker 14: little bit like it's not tangible yet to voters and

966
00:47:31,239 --> 00:47:34,160
Speaker 14: the electorate. What does Rischie Sunac need to do. Number

967
00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:35,920
Speaker 14: one thing he needs to do going into this election.

968
00:47:36,080 --> 00:47:38,680
Speaker 17: So I think there are some really good stories to tell.

969
00:47:38,920 --> 00:47:41,839
Speaker 17: I mentioned t side up in the Northeast when I

970
00:47:41,920 --> 00:47:45,319
Speaker 17: was the Minister for Skills. I was lucky enough to

971
00:47:45,320 --> 00:47:48,960
Speaker 17: be part of this great piece of work where Ben Houchin,

972
00:47:49,000 --> 00:47:52,239
Speaker 17: the mayor, persuaded the energy companies to come and build

973
00:47:52,280 --> 00:47:56,760
Speaker 17: hydrogen plants on the condition that they offered training courses

974
00:47:56,800 --> 00:48:00,200
Speaker 17: for young boys and girls in the local colleges. So

975
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:02,560
Speaker 17: you have, you know, the government setting up a free

976
00:48:02,560 --> 00:48:06,319
Speaker 17: pot and teaside, the mayor bringing in the business, and

977
00:48:06,360 --> 00:48:09,120
Speaker 17: then the business securing the training places so that young

978
00:48:09,200 --> 00:48:12,800
Speaker 17: people get those new jobs in their community. And that

979
00:48:12,800 --> 00:48:14,959
Speaker 17: that is what we call leveling up in the UK.

980
00:48:15,400 --> 00:48:18,440
Speaker 17: And we're starting to see the fruits of it, you know,

981
00:48:19,200 --> 00:48:22,680
Speaker 17: new business in towns which have been left behind, and

982
00:48:22,800 --> 00:48:25,440
Speaker 17: local people getting those jobs and adding to the prosperity

983
00:48:25,440 --> 00:48:27,480
Speaker 17: of the places where they live. That's something that didn't

984
00:48:27,520 --> 00:48:30,680
Speaker 17: happen under thirteen years of labor. It's happening under the

985
00:48:30,719 --> 00:48:33,440
Speaker 17: Conservatives and I've been proud to be part of it.

986
00:48:33,560 --> 00:48:34,800
Speaker 14: Do you want to break some news. Do you know

987
00:48:34,840 --> 00:48:35,759
Speaker 14: when the election will be?

988
00:48:36,200 --> 00:48:38,640
Speaker 17: Well, I'd love to tell you, but the primary don't

989
00:48:38,640 --> 00:48:39,879
Speaker 17: know yet. I don't know yet.

990
00:48:39,920 --> 00:48:41,759
Speaker 14: Okay, all right, we'll leave it there. Thank you so

991
00:48:41,840 --> 00:48:44,880
Speaker 14: much for your time. That was Alex Burghart, UK Cabinet Officer,

992
00:48:44,960 --> 00:48:48,240
Speaker 14: Minister leaning on AI in the public sector, Joe.

993
00:48:48,080 --> 00:48:51,600
Speaker 2: Kayley, Ane Marie Hordurin live in New York. Thank you

994
00:48:51,640 --> 00:48:56,680
Speaker 2: so much for the great conversation. Anne Marie.

995
00:48:57,160 --> 00:49:00,000
Speaker 1: If you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast,

996
00:49:00,560 --> 00:49:03,799
Speaker 1: catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apocarplay and

997
00:49:03,800 --> 00:49:06,960
Speaker 1: then Proudoro with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand

998
00:49:07,000 --> 00:49:12,839
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

999
00:49:13,400 --> 00:49:16,840
Speaker 13: This is something that perhaps the administration is trying to

1000
00:49:16,840 --> 00:49:19,560
Speaker 13: hang their hats on, Joe. The continued strength it seems

1001
00:49:19,560 --> 00:49:21,960
Speaker 13: of the US economy, but of course they're facing a

1002
00:49:22,040 --> 00:49:24,080
Speaker 13: number of other headwinds as well, as we continue to

1003
00:49:24,120 --> 00:49:29,920
Speaker 13: see campus protests, pro Palestinian protests across the country and abroad,

1004
00:49:30,520 --> 00:49:33,640
Speaker 13: still efforting a cease fire deal between Israel and Hamasta

1005
00:49:33,680 --> 00:49:36,280
Speaker 13: that to this point has not yet come to fruition.

1006
00:49:36,360 --> 00:49:37,120
Speaker 5: Well that's true, Kayley.

1007
00:49:37,400 --> 00:49:40,040
Speaker 2: You and I started this week on Monday with talk

1008
00:49:40,120 --> 00:49:43,799
Speaker 2: of an imminent announcement like that day or night, and

1009
00:49:43,880 --> 00:49:47,239
Speaker 2: it's been five days and we're still waiting. So now

1010
00:49:47,280 --> 00:49:50,800
Speaker 2: a new clock is ticking. An important headline this morning

1011
00:49:50,800 --> 00:49:53,319
Speaker 2: in the Wall Street Journal Israel gives Hamas a week

1012
00:49:53,640 --> 00:49:57,200
Speaker 2: to strike a deal on a RAFA, or rather a

1013
00:49:57,320 --> 00:49:59,640
Speaker 2: RAFA offensive will begin. And it gets us back to

1014
00:49:59,680 --> 00:50:02,160
Speaker 2: the site idea question at least whether RAFA is a

1015
00:50:02,200 --> 00:50:07,960
Speaker 2: bargaining ship or indeed something that Israel is telegraphing will happen. Kaylee,

1016
00:50:08,000 --> 00:50:10,560
Speaker 2: We're lucky to be joined by Jennifer Kavanaugh right now,

1017
00:50:10,640 --> 00:50:13,560
Speaker 2: senior fellow in the American state Craft Program at the

1018
00:50:13,560 --> 00:50:16,720
Speaker 2: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and it's.

1019
00:50:16,560 --> 00:50:17,800
Speaker 5: Great to have you with us. Jennifer.

1020
00:50:17,840 --> 00:50:19,919
Speaker 2: We have a lot of questions about what's happening right now,

1021
00:50:19,920 --> 00:50:24,360
Speaker 2: including the status of talks now that HAMAS delegation is

1022
00:50:24,880 --> 00:50:28,279
Speaker 2: joining the situation in Cairo, what do you expect to

1023
00:50:28,280 --> 00:50:29,120
Speaker 2: happen this weekend.

1024
00:50:30,920 --> 00:50:33,879
Speaker 18: Well, I heard the same report that you did that

1025
00:50:33,920 --> 00:50:37,040
Speaker 18: Hamas has indicated that they are willing to continue negotiations,

1026
00:50:37,160 --> 00:50:39,719
Speaker 18: so there's still a chance for a deal, But there

1027
00:50:39,719 --> 00:50:42,480
Speaker 18: are a number of stumbling box one of which you

1028
00:50:42,680 --> 00:50:45,480
Speaker 18: just mentioned, which is the fact that Netanyahu has made

1029
00:50:45,480 --> 00:50:50,239
Speaker 18: it clear that the IDF the Israeli defense for US

1030
00:50:50,280 --> 00:50:53,080
Speaker 18: and tends to move on Rafa whether or not there

1031
00:50:53,160 --> 00:50:57,480
Speaker 18: is a deal, which really reduces Hamas's incentive to strike

1032
00:50:57,560 --> 00:51:00,319
Speaker 18: any sort of a cord, given that it doesn't seem

1033
00:51:00,360 --> 00:51:02,879
Speaker 18: to buy them anything in the long term. Of course,

1034
00:51:02,920 --> 00:51:05,400
Speaker 18: the other stumbling block is the lack of a real

1035
00:51:06,160 --> 00:51:09,319
Speaker 18: plan for the future of Gaza. What happens if this

1036
00:51:09,360 --> 00:51:11,160
Speaker 18: is not a long term seas fare or if it

1037
00:51:11,239 --> 00:51:13,600
Speaker 18: is to Gaza in the long term, And those are

1038
00:51:13,640 --> 00:51:16,240
Speaker 18: things I think that are likely weighing on the minds

1039
00:51:16,239 --> 00:51:19,040
Speaker 18: of Hama's leaders as they're going into these negotiations.

1040
00:51:20,440 --> 00:51:23,320
Speaker 13: Well, so, Jennifer, it's interesting that you raise the incentives

1041
00:51:23,920 --> 00:51:28,360
Speaker 13: or perhaps lack thereof, for Hamas, knowing that perhaps Israel

1042
00:51:28,400 --> 00:51:30,600
Speaker 13: will be moving into Rafa. Either way, that if they

1043
00:51:30,640 --> 00:51:33,560
Speaker 13: release hostages, they are losing some of the leverage that

1044
00:51:33,600 --> 00:51:37,800
Speaker 13: they have remaining. Why would Hamas agree to a temporary

1045
00:51:37,800 --> 00:51:41,200
Speaker 13: ceasefire at this point, Well.

1046
00:51:41,040 --> 00:51:43,280
Speaker 18: It's possible if they would see an advantage to having

1047
00:51:43,920 --> 00:51:49,319
Speaker 18: some time to rebuild their forces or to solidify their

1048
00:51:49,360 --> 00:51:53,399
Speaker 18: grounds before Israel moved in, So it's possible that that

1049
00:51:53,560 --> 00:51:55,240
Speaker 18: is one way they're thinking.

1050
00:51:55,320 --> 00:51:56,280
Speaker 4: Another is that.

1051
00:51:56,400 --> 00:51:59,920
Speaker 18: This idea that even a temporary seasfire could become permanent.

1052
00:52:00,400 --> 00:52:03,120
Speaker 18: There have been some who have indicated that even on

1053
00:52:03,160 --> 00:52:05,960
Speaker 18: the Israeli side, there's a recognition that a temporary cease

1054
00:52:06,000 --> 00:52:09,120
Speaker 18: fire would likely be a permanent one. So there's the

1055
00:52:09,160 --> 00:52:13,120
Speaker 18: potential that this uh that Yahoo's threat to move on

1056
00:52:13,239 --> 00:52:17,640
Speaker 18: Ralpha to regardless of a deal, is just that it's

1057
00:52:17,640 --> 00:52:22,120
Speaker 18: a bluff and that what what is what starts as

1058
00:52:22,360 --> 00:52:26,600
Speaker 18: a temporary spire would become permanent. But that raises a

1059
00:52:26,600 --> 00:52:28,600
Speaker 18: whole host of other questions about what that means for

1060
00:52:28,640 --> 00:52:31,560
Speaker 18: the long term, and there's a lot of uncertainty for Hamas.

1061
00:52:32,040 --> 00:52:32,239
Speaker 8: You know.

1062
00:52:32,480 --> 00:52:36,480
Speaker 18: Another big news item this week was this idea of

1063
00:52:36,640 --> 00:52:40,560
Speaker 18: a Israeli Saudi normalization deal and it's hard to see

1064
00:52:40,560 --> 00:52:43,280
Speaker 18: how that moves forward without a plan for a permanent

1065
00:52:43,320 --> 00:52:47,120
Speaker 18: Palestinian state, But Israel has indicated that it's not interested

1066
00:52:47,160 --> 00:52:51,360
Speaker 18: in moving in that direction either, So from Amas's perspective,

1067
00:52:51,360 --> 00:52:54,279
Speaker 18: there's definitely an incentive to keep the talks going in

1068
00:52:54,320 --> 00:52:57,200
Speaker 18: hopes that they can delay any sort of further military operation,

1069
00:52:57,640 --> 00:52:59,719
Speaker 18: but it's hard to see what the incentives are for

1070
00:52:59,719 --> 00:53:02,319
Speaker 18: actually striking that deal without a lot more information and

1071
00:53:02,360 --> 00:53:03,680
Speaker 18: give on the Israeli side.

1072
00:53:03,920 --> 00:53:06,920
Speaker 2: Jennifer does the arrival potentially this weekend is what we're

1073
00:53:06,960 --> 00:53:11,680
Speaker 2: hearing of a temporary peer to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza.

1074
00:53:11,719 --> 00:53:13,600
Speaker 2: The US military of course building that.

1075
00:53:14,000 --> 00:53:14,760
Speaker 5: As we speak.

1076
00:53:14,840 --> 00:53:19,200
Speaker 2: Does it change the dynamic at all in these talks.

1077
00:53:19,239 --> 00:53:22,239
Speaker 2: Does it increase the chance for a ceasefire once it's

1078
00:53:22,320 --> 00:53:22,880
Speaker 2: up and running.

1079
00:53:24,640 --> 00:53:26,880
Speaker 18: I'm not sure that really factors in all that much.

1080
00:53:27,800 --> 00:53:30,479
Speaker 18: I mean, the most efficient way to get aid into

1081
00:53:30,520 --> 00:53:35,000
Speaker 18: Gaza is with trucks over land borders, so the peer

1082
00:53:35,080 --> 00:53:38,360
Speaker 18: will offer some temporary relief possibly, But even if that

1083
00:53:38,440 --> 00:53:41,960
Speaker 18: aid starts arriving this weekend, it's going to face delays

1084
00:53:41,960 --> 00:53:45,439
Speaker 18: and actually getting into the hands of population because it's

1085
00:53:45,480 --> 00:53:47,719
Speaker 18: still not really clear how that AID is going to

1086
00:53:47,719 --> 00:53:51,400
Speaker 18: get from the peer to the population, and the big

1087
00:53:51,520 --> 00:53:55,000
Speaker 18: bottlenecks are the security checks of that AID as it

1088
00:53:55,080 --> 00:54:01,040
Speaker 18: moves from the peer onto land, and it's not there's

1089
00:54:01,080 --> 00:54:04,120
Speaker 18: no protocol yet or procedures that have been outlined for

1090
00:54:04,280 --> 00:54:06,799
Speaker 18: how that process is going to occur. That's going to

1091
00:54:06,840 --> 00:54:09,640
Speaker 18: be faster than what's already been put in place. So

1092
00:54:09,960 --> 00:54:13,040
Speaker 18: I'm not sure that that factors in, although it certainly

1093
00:54:13,080 --> 00:54:16,640
Speaker 18: would be beneficial for the god of population long term

1094
00:54:16,680 --> 00:54:19,720
Speaker 18: to be able to get access to more AID.

1095
00:54:20,320 --> 00:54:25,000
Speaker 13: Well, you raise the question of perhaps bottlenecks that could

1096
00:54:25,040 --> 00:54:27,200
Speaker 13: arise once things are off the peer. There's also just

1097
00:54:27,239 --> 00:54:29,839
Speaker 13: the question of the security of the peer itself. This

1098
00:54:29,880 --> 00:54:32,920
Speaker 13: is something that the Defense Secretary, Lloyd Austin, was asked

1099
00:54:32,960 --> 00:54:37,080
Speaker 13: about earlier in Honolulu, and this was his response.

1100
00:54:37,880 --> 00:54:42,040
Speaker 7: The first question was regarding any incredible information that we

1101
00:54:42,160 --> 00:54:47,600
Speaker 7: have that AMAS is going to attack our troops. Of course,

1102
00:54:47,640 --> 00:54:55,279
Speaker 7: I don't discuss intelligence information at the podiums, but I

1103
00:54:55,320 --> 00:55:00,200
Speaker 7: don't see any indications currently that there is an active intent.

1104
00:55:00,360 --> 00:55:00,799
Speaker 5: To do that.

1105
00:55:02,600 --> 00:55:05,320
Speaker 7: Having excited that this is this is a combat zone

1106
00:55:05,440 --> 00:55:07,799
Speaker 7: and a number of things can happen. A number of

1107
00:55:07,800 --> 00:55:08,640
Speaker 7: things will happen.

1108
00:55:10,360 --> 00:55:14,240
Speaker 13: A number of things, Jennifer, he said, can and will happen.

1109
00:55:14,800 --> 00:55:18,360
Speaker 13: Could this peer be something of an impetus for actual

1110
00:55:18,480 --> 00:55:22,080
Speaker 13: US troops getting involved in a more material way if

1111
00:55:22,120 --> 00:55:27,359
Speaker 13: indeed there were to be an attack, Well, there's certainly.

1112
00:55:27,000 --> 00:55:29,800
Speaker 18: The risk that that could happen. That's one of the

1113
00:55:30,480 --> 00:55:34,080
Speaker 18: uh one of the criticisms that has arisen of the

1114
00:55:34,120 --> 00:55:37,040
Speaker 18: plan for this per since the start is that it's

1115
00:55:37,080 --> 00:55:39,960
Speaker 18: not clear how US troops are going to be protected

1116
00:55:40,000 --> 00:55:41,799
Speaker 18: and how they're going to keep them from being on

1117
00:55:41,840 --> 00:55:46,759
Speaker 18: the land, which then could signal a larger US role

1118
00:55:46,840 --> 00:55:51,239
Speaker 18: in this conflict. Then then the Defense Department has indicated

1119
00:55:52,840 --> 00:55:55,839
Speaker 18: it intends to have or that it wants to have.

1120
00:55:57,160 --> 00:56:00,680
Speaker 18: You know, one of Hamas's goals has been throughout this

1121
00:56:00,800 --> 00:56:05,560
Speaker 18: conflict to separate Israel from its Western support. So attacking

1122
00:56:05,680 --> 00:56:09,160
Speaker 18: US forces and sort of forcing this decision of how

1123
00:56:09,760 --> 00:56:12,239
Speaker 18: in Israel's camp is the United States willing to be

1124
00:56:13,320 --> 00:56:15,920
Speaker 18: certainly could be a tactic, and so attacks on the

1125
00:56:16,000 --> 00:56:20,120
Speaker 18: pier are certainly not out of the question in terms

1126
00:56:20,160 --> 00:56:23,600
Speaker 18: of trying to force the US hand in that way.

1127
00:56:24,040 --> 00:56:27,360
Speaker 18: At the same time, I don't think any player involved

1128
00:56:27,400 --> 00:56:30,240
Speaker 18: in this conflict whether it's the United States. Hamas Aaron

1129
00:56:30,440 --> 00:56:34,759
Speaker 18: Israel wants to see an escalation to any sort of

1130
00:56:34,800 --> 00:56:40,240
Speaker 18: regional regional conflict. Hamas certainly would like to have de escalation,

1131
00:56:40,400 --> 00:56:43,520
Speaker 18: not escalation, and so that could weigh on the other

1132
00:56:43,600 --> 00:56:47,200
Speaker 18: side of keeping them from from putting any pressure on

1133
00:56:47,280 --> 00:56:47,960
Speaker 18: US forces.

1134
00:56:48,160 --> 00:56:52,080
Speaker 2: Jennifer, what happens if, as some are predicting, Israel opens

1135
00:56:52,120 --> 00:56:54,440
Speaker 2: a new front to the north, What happens to talks

1136
00:56:54,560 --> 00:56:57,880
Speaker 2: with Hamas if Israel attacks has Belah?

1137
00:57:00,200 --> 00:57:02,239
Speaker 18: Well, I mean, that's a that's a tough question, but

1138
00:57:02,280 --> 00:57:05,400
Speaker 18: I think the better question is whether or not Israel

1139
00:57:05,440 --> 00:57:10,000
Speaker 18: can really resource a second front without additional US support,

1140
00:57:11,280 --> 00:57:15,040
Speaker 18: And I would my estimate is is probably not. If

1141
00:57:15,360 --> 00:57:17,480
Speaker 18: Israel decides to open a second front, that opens a

1142
00:57:17,520 --> 00:57:20,320
Speaker 18: number of hard questions for the United States about how

1143
00:57:20,360 --> 00:57:25,720
Speaker 18: far it's willing to lean in terms of providing offensive

1144
00:57:26,000 --> 00:57:29,360
Speaker 18: military to the United States to excuse me, to Israel.

1145
00:57:29,960 --> 00:57:33,920
Speaker 18: And that's already been a contentious issue in the United States,

1146
00:57:34,720 --> 00:57:39,720
Speaker 18: with some senators calling for conditions on AID and uh

1147
00:57:40,160 --> 00:57:44,240
Speaker 18: and and putting pressure on President Biden to come out

1148
00:57:44,280 --> 00:57:46,720
Speaker 18: more strongly in terms of leaning on the leverage that

1149
00:57:46,760 --> 00:57:50,840
Speaker 18: the United States gains from providing military aid in terms

1150
00:57:50,840 --> 00:57:55,400
Speaker 18: of reigning Natanyaku in to limit this conflict, to prevent

1151
00:57:55,440 --> 00:57:59,040
Speaker 18: it from becoming a regional one, which is a real

1152
00:57:59,160 --> 00:58:01,720
Speaker 18: risk if Israel war to move into Lebanon.

1153
00:58:02,960 --> 00:58:05,400
Speaker 13: Well, Jennifer, as you talk about the idea of limiting aid,

1154
00:58:05,560 --> 00:58:09,160
Speaker 13: certainly there is a chunk of people in the US

1155
00:58:09,240 --> 00:58:11,360
Speaker 13: right now, including some members of Congress, who would not

1156
00:58:11,480 --> 00:58:14,160
Speaker 13: like to see the US continuing to provide unconditional aid

1157
00:58:14,240 --> 00:58:17,200
Speaker 13: to Israel because of concern around Palestinian life and what's

1158
00:58:17,200 --> 00:58:20,320
Speaker 13: happening in Gaza, And certainly that has shown up on

1159
00:58:20,400 --> 00:58:23,440
Speaker 13: college campuses across the country as we have seen what

1160
00:58:23,720 --> 00:58:27,040
Speaker 13: was a pro Palestinian movement perhaps morphing into something that

1161
00:58:27,360 --> 00:58:31,360
Speaker 13: could have more anti Semitism involved. What effect do you

1162
00:58:31,400 --> 00:58:35,120
Speaker 13: think the visuals and the rhetoric around these protests is

1163
00:58:35,160 --> 00:58:38,600
Speaker 13: actually having with the situation or on the situation on

1164
00:58:38,680 --> 00:58:41,120
Speaker 13: the ground in the Middle East. Is that something that

1165
00:58:41,160 --> 00:58:44,800
Speaker 13: emboldened to Moss Does it embolden Israel, you know, make

1166
00:58:44,880 --> 00:58:47,880
Speaker 13: them more secure in the notion that they have to

1167
00:58:47,920 --> 00:58:51,240
Speaker 13: fight vigorously for their right to exist. How do you

1168
00:58:51,320 --> 00:58:51,760
Speaker 13: view that?

1169
00:58:53,960 --> 00:58:56,240
Speaker 18: I could see it as possibly emboldening the Moss in

1170
00:58:56,280 --> 00:59:01,200
Speaker 18: the sense that it is eroding the golob credibility and

1171
00:59:01,280 --> 00:59:05,520
Speaker 18: reputation of both the United States and Israel, which is

1172
00:59:05,560 --> 00:59:07,640
Speaker 18: one of the long term goals of these groups.

1173
00:59:08,840 --> 00:59:08,960
Speaker 8: Uh.

1174
00:59:09,080 --> 00:59:12,640
Speaker 18: For Israel, you know, seeing global protests against the way

1175
00:59:12,680 --> 00:59:16,320
Speaker 18: the war has been conducted certainly helped shift public opinion

1176
00:59:16,320 --> 00:59:19,480
Speaker 18: against them and limit their flexibility to continue the war.

1177
00:59:20,080 --> 00:59:24,680
Speaker 18: And for the United States, it raises questions about a

1178
00:59:24,680 --> 00:59:28,959
Speaker 18: double standard. You know, some countries across the Global South

1179
00:59:29,080 --> 00:59:32,120
Speaker 18: especially have been very critical of what they see as

1180
00:59:32,600 --> 00:59:35,400
Speaker 18: a double standard between the way the United States has

1181
00:59:35,440 --> 00:59:39,080
Speaker 18: responded to Israel's conduct of its war in Gaza and

1182
00:59:39,200 --> 00:59:41,640
Speaker 18: Russia's conduct of its war in Ukraine, which which the

1183
00:59:41,720 --> 00:59:44,240
Speaker 18: United States has come up very strongly against. Now, there

1184
00:59:44,240 --> 00:59:48,440
Speaker 18: are obviously very significant differences between those two conflicts, but

1185
00:59:48,560 --> 00:59:51,720
Speaker 18: that connection has been made, and that narrative, which has

1186
00:59:51,760 --> 00:59:56,480
Speaker 18: been fueled by disinformation and by Russian sources and by

1187
00:59:57,840 --> 01:00:01,240
Speaker 18: anti Israel sources, has has taken and that can have

1188
01:00:01,280 --> 01:00:07,560
Speaker 18: an impact on US influence across places in Africa and

1189
01:00:08,400 --> 01:00:10,360
Speaker 18: other parts of the Middle East as well.

1190
01:00:12,200 --> 01:00:14,720
Speaker 13: All Right, Jennifer Kavanaugh, great to have you on Balance

1191
01:00:14,720 --> 01:00:16,800
Speaker 13: of Power today. Thank you so much for joining us she,

1192
01:00:16,840 --> 01:00:18,959
Speaker 13: of course, is a Senior Fellow in the American state

1193
01:00:19,040 --> 01:00:23,000
Speaker 13: Craft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

1194
01:00:25,200 --> 01:00:28,440
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

1195
01:00:28,440 --> 01:00:31,960
Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify.

1196
01:00:31,520 --> 01:00:33,560
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1197
01:00:33,640 --> 01:00:36,240
Speaker 2: You can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC

1198
01:00:36,400 --> 01:00:39,080
Speaker 2: at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.