1
00:00:01,400 --> 00:00:04,120
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along

2
00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:06,240
Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day

3
00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:10,360
Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts,

4
00:00:10,400 --> 00:00:13,600
Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Kind the Bloomberg Markets

5
00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:17,000
Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts,

6
00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:22,160
Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. It is time for Bloomberg Opinion.

7
00:00:22,239 --> 00:00:25,120
Speaker 1: This morning. We're joined by Bloomberg Opinion columust Max Neson.

8
00:00:25,200 --> 00:00:29,360
Speaker 1: He covers all things biotech, farmer and healthcare. Max, You've

9
00:00:29,360 --> 00:00:32,919
Speaker 1: got a column now which I just read talking about Kodak.

10
00:00:32,920 --> 00:00:37,159
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the shares of Kodak here up twelve

11
00:00:37,200 --> 00:00:43,040
Speaker 1: percent today, um up seven year to date, up over

12
00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:45,000
Speaker 1: the trailing twelve months, and now has a market cap

13
00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:47,400
Speaker 1: of one point six three billion. I didn't even know

14
00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:50,479
Speaker 1: this company was still in existence as a public equity.

15
00:00:51,120 --> 00:00:55,640
Speaker 1: What's going on with Kodak? Uh? So, what's going on

16
00:00:55,840 --> 00:01:01,040
Speaker 1: driving this this incredible stuff? Brice Increase is a deal

17
00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:05,040
Speaker 1: alan from from the government which is intended to help

18
00:01:05,080 --> 00:01:08,839
Speaker 1: them kind of make a transition into into a new business,

19
00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:13,240
Speaker 1: uh which is the making of of drug product of

20
00:01:13,240 --> 00:01:17,560
Speaker 1: of active pharmaceutical ingredients part of kind of an ongoing

21
00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:22,560
Speaker 1: policy effort to bring more of that production back into

22
00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:25,959
Speaker 1: the United States. UM, which you know that that business

23
00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:30,560
Speaker 1: is really currently very dependent on China and India. I'm

24
00:01:30,600 --> 00:01:33,319
Speaker 1: in addition to the sort of political leanings of the

25
00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:37,240
Speaker 1: current administration. You know, there are potential national security concerns

26
00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:40,720
Speaker 1: about disruption, there have been quality control issues, so you know,

27
00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:44,360
Speaker 1: it's not a not an insane policy move. But but

28
00:01:44,440 --> 00:01:46,880
Speaker 1: the thing that's a little bit more difficult to understand

29
00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:52,800
Speaker 1: is why Kodak and secondly, um, why why this loan

30
00:01:53,200 --> 00:01:56,560
Speaker 1: well significant would lead to such an enormous increase in

31
00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:59,560
Speaker 1: the stock Because this is a company that that, while

32
00:01:59,560 --> 00:02:03,480
Speaker 1: it has chemical experience, is new to this business, which

33
00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:08,200
Speaker 1: is a very difficult, very low margin commodity business. It

34
00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:11,320
Speaker 1: moved out the United States for a reason because it's

35
00:02:11,639 --> 00:02:13,800
Speaker 1: much cheaper to do it elsewhere. It's hard to be

36
00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:18,760
Speaker 1: cost competitive here. So the imagined future where you know,

37
00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:23,280
Speaker 1: code Act does this sustainably and profitably seems very unlikely

38
00:02:23,320 --> 00:02:25,440
Speaker 1: to mean, I just want to bring it to our

39
00:02:25,480 --> 00:02:29,200
Speaker 1: listeners attention that several outlets and now reporting that Hermann Kine,

40
00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:33,800
Speaker 1: the former presidential candidate has died from COVID nineteen once again,

41
00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:37,120
Speaker 1: Herman Caine has died from COVID nineteen. Will bring you

42
00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:41,160
Speaker 1: more details when we get them. But another death among

43
00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:44,560
Speaker 1: the one d and fifty thousand plus deaths that we

44
00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:47,320
Speaker 1: were counting every day, Max. How concerning is that that

45
00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:51,040
Speaker 1: we are seeing numbers rise again in the places like

46
00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:54,600
Speaker 1: New Jersey, which had tried to sort of Tampa down

47
00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:59,280
Speaker 1: and had managed to do so. It's it's very concerning,

48
00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:04,640
Speaker 1: and you know, unfortunately maybe inevitable accent uh you know,

49
00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:09,040
Speaker 1: really really strict policy or or you know, profound adherent

50
00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:14,040
Speaker 1: to social distancing guidelines going forward. I think the country

51
00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:17,520
Speaker 1: is in a pretty concerning place where well, you do

52
00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:22,680
Speaker 1: have some some plateauing or or decline of case growth

53
00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:28,560
Speaker 1: in you know, put the initial hotspots Texas, initial new offspots, Texas, Florida, Arizona.

54
00:03:28,880 --> 00:03:33,079
Speaker 1: You still have many cases there also deaths as as

55
00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:36,200
Speaker 1: you know, people have consistently warned catching up to that

56
00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:39,080
Speaker 1: case you know, that past case growth, and then many

57
00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:42,800
Speaker 1: other examples besides New Jersey around the country that you know,

58
00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:46,080
Speaker 1: well not as acute as those hot spots, yet still

59
00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:50,360
Speaker 1: seeing very significant levels of case growth. All of which um,

60
00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:53,520
Speaker 1: you know, makes any further opening, makes school in the

61
00:03:53,560 --> 00:03:56,320
Speaker 1: fall harder and will lead to both you know, more

62
00:03:56,440 --> 00:04:01,360
Speaker 1: debts and the sort of unknown long term consequences of infection. Um,

63
00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:04,440
Speaker 1: which you know, more more research props up every day

64
00:04:04,520 --> 00:04:08,840
Speaker 1: indicating the possibility of heart lung damage that may be durable.

65
00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:12,360
Speaker 1: So um, yeah, it's a it's a scary time, all right.

66
00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:15,960
Speaker 1: So that brings us to the continuing ongoing view of

67
00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:20,359
Speaker 1: potential for vaccines Johnson and Johnson. I saw a headline

68
00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:24,760
Speaker 1: vaccine protects monkeys from COVID with single shot. How important

69
00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:29,039
Speaker 1: is the J and j H news there? Um, you know,

70
00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:31,320
Speaker 1: it's a little bit of both. Do you always have

71
00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:36,520
Speaker 1: to be particularly cautious about um, you know, non human data.

72
00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:40,920
Speaker 1: There's a saying among people who do in vectious disease research, Um,

73
00:04:40,960 --> 00:04:44,600
Speaker 1: you know, mice lie, monkeys exaggerate, So you know, there,

74
00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:46,400
Speaker 1: there's that's a thing you really kind of do have

75
00:04:46,480 --> 00:04:49,040
Speaker 1: to view it in the context that, well, well, this

76
00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:51,880
Speaker 1: can tell you something valuable, give you an indication of

77
00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:55,640
Speaker 1: the likelihood that a vaccine is promising, and in this case,

78
00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:59,920
Speaker 1: the particularly promising potential of of a single dose. After

79
00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:03,120
Speaker 1: you really do need to see it at humans before

80
00:05:03,160 --> 00:05:06,960
Speaker 1: you make any conclusions. And that's something where um, you know,

81
00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:09,120
Speaker 1: the change of vaccine is running a little bit behind.

82
00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:12,279
Speaker 1: It just began it its first in human studies, so

83
00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:16,320
Speaker 1: I'll I personally wait for that before making to two

84
00:05:16,440 --> 00:05:20,240
Speaker 1: firm of a verdict on the promise of the vaccine. Though, um,

85
00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:22,880
Speaker 1: definitely you know what you want to see from a

86
00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:25,760
Speaker 1: primary challenge study. You know it wasn't It went well

87
00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:29,960
Speaker 1: within the limitations of the study. And we have confirmation

88
00:05:29,960 --> 00:05:32,599
Speaker 1: now on the Boomberg website that Herman Came, the piece

89
00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:36,599
Speaker 1: of Jane executive of course, has died seventy four years old.

90
00:05:36,760 --> 00:05:40,279
Speaker 1: He released a statement via Twitter on July twod that

91
00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:44,520
Speaker 1: he was hospitalized in the Atlanta area after contracting coronavirus,

92
00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:47,080
Speaker 1: and that was less than two weeks after attending President

93
00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:50,000
Speaker 1: Donald Thomp's indoor rally and Tulsa, Arizona. He didn't know

94
00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:53,760
Speaker 1: when or how he contracted the disease. But again, Herman Kine,

95
00:05:54,279 --> 00:06:00,440
Speaker 1: the former prominent Republican who actually was running for White

96
00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:03,479
Speaker 1: House position, if you'd like to put it that way,

97
00:06:03,600 --> 00:06:07,520
Speaker 1: has died from COVID nineteen Max. Thank you, This isn't

98
00:06:07,600 --> 00:06:11,279
Speaker 1: the last death, unfortunately from this awful pandemic. And again

99
00:06:11,320 --> 00:06:14,000
Speaker 1: we're more than a hundred and fifty thousand people down

100
00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:16,640
Speaker 1: here in the United States now and much more than

101
00:06:16,640 --> 00:06:21,200
Speaker 1: that globally, so Paul and another prominent figure dying from

102
00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:23,320
Speaker 1: COVID nineteen. You have to wonder if this will change

103
00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:26,880
Speaker 1: the conversation in any way across the country, but unfortunately

104
00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:31,760
Speaker 1: it's hard to see that happening. It is time to

105
00:06:31,760 --> 00:06:33,880
Speaker 1: take a closer look at that economic data as well

106
00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:36,680
Speaker 1: as what the Federal Reserved chair said yesterday. No better

107
00:06:36,720 --> 00:06:41,000
Speaker 1: man than to bring in David Kotok Now of Cumberland Advisors. David,

108
00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:44,440
Speaker 1: good morning, and welcome. Good morning, Vanney. It's nice to

109
00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:47,880
Speaker 1: talk with well, it is, except that we got a

110
00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:54,240
Speaker 1: second quarter annualized figure of down thirty two point nine

111
00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:57,680
Speaker 1: percent for GDP growth. What does that mean for the

112
00:06:57,680 --> 00:07:00,600
Speaker 1: economy going forward? What should we read into this well

113
00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:05,120
Speaker 1: remarkable number. We've already had a lot of conversation about it.

114
00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:10,920
Speaker 1: Um it was expected to be huge, and it validated

115
00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:15,040
Speaker 1: the expectation, and it says nothing about where we're going

116
00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:19,680
Speaker 1: to be in the fourth quarter and next year. And

117
00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:24,040
Speaker 1: that's what's key markets are I think are reacting not

118
00:07:24,240 --> 00:07:27,600
Speaker 1: to the GDP number with this red tape today. I

119
00:07:27,640 --> 00:07:31,880
Speaker 1: think they're reacting to the impasse from the US Congress,

120
00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:35,680
Speaker 1: which invites risk and the blame game between the two

121
00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:39,000
Speaker 1: largest economies in the world, China and the United States.

122
00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:41,560
Speaker 1: And I think that's what's driving this market to a

123
00:07:41,640 --> 00:07:46,160
Speaker 1: red tape, not GDP. All right, Dave, let's let's go there. Um.

124
00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:50,080
Speaker 1: We had Kevin Sirelli, Bloomberg's Washington correspondent on earlier with

125
00:07:50,120 --> 00:07:54,200
Speaker 1: Tom Keene and myself on surveillance. He believes that from

126
00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:56,960
Speaker 1: his contacts in Washington that something will in fact get

127
00:07:57,000 --> 00:08:01,120
Speaker 1: done this week. What's your outlook for the fiscal stimulus?

128
00:08:01,160 --> 00:08:03,440
Speaker 1: What do you think the market is really looking for

129
00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:06,120
Speaker 1: to come out of Washington. Yeah, well, I I saw

130
00:08:06,160 --> 00:08:09,160
Speaker 1: the piece with Kevin. Um. As you said, you know,

131
00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:13,920
Speaker 1: I'm a regular surveillance watcher every morning, and I think

132
00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:16,920
Speaker 1: the cutting edges where they're going to meet in the middle.

133
00:08:17,920 --> 00:08:22,440
Speaker 1: The issue of the liabilities is not resolved, or maybe

134
00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:25,360
Speaker 1: it will become. So how do you deal with a

135
00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:30,800
Speaker 1: retroactive liability deletion on the part of local governments, on

136
00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:32,600
Speaker 1: the part of business. Is what to do with the

137
00:08:32,679 --> 00:08:35,640
Speaker 1: liability for COVID and how do you establish proof in

138
00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:40,199
Speaker 1: a pandemic. These are also complicated my expectation as the

139
00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:43,199
Speaker 1: markets would like to see you meet in the middle compromise.

140
00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:46,680
Speaker 1: They don't expect three plus trillion, and they don't expect

141
00:08:46,720 --> 00:08:51,559
Speaker 1: one trillion, and they do expect some amount of sustenance

142
00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:56,280
Speaker 1: to keep thirty or forty million Americans bridged at least

143
00:08:56,360 --> 00:08:59,280
Speaker 1: in part across the gap for the rest of the year.

144
00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:03,120
Speaker 1: Markets would like that, businesses would like that, the citizens

145
00:09:03,200 --> 00:09:05,600
Speaker 1: would like that, and we would get beyond the same

146
00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:09,760
Speaker 1: pass which you indicated this morning is possibly going to happen.

147
00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:13,560
Speaker 1: Is it realistate, David to think though, that, you know,

148
00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:17,839
Speaker 1: the administration of all of this can get done in

149
00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:20,480
Speaker 1: the way that Republicans are expecting, in the sense of,

150
00:09:20,559 --> 00:09:23,080
Speaker 1: you know, okay, down to two extra from the federal

151
00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:25,440
Speaker 1: governments per week for a couple of months, and then

152
00:09:25,960 --> 00:09:28,880
Speaker 1: you know, by then everybody will be able to get

153
00:09:28,880 --> 00:09:31,720
Speaker 1: some of what they had been making. Is that even possible?

154
00:09:31,760 --> 00:09:35,480
Speaker 1: There is no extra money for states to do this? Um, well,

155
00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:39,320
Speaker 1: that's that's the profound question, Ronnie. It's a fair one,

156
00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:42,880
Speaker 1: you know. I I reflect on history as you know it.

157
00:09:43,080 --> 00:09:45,439
Speaker 1: I'm a student of history for a very long time.

158
00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:50,080
Speaker 1: And I remember Winston Churchill rising in the House of Commons.

159
00:09:50,120 --> 00:09:52,280
Speaker 1: I wasn't there at the time when I'm very young,

160
00:09:52,720 --> 00:09:56,560
Speaker 1: but I remember reading his words in in the House

161
00:09:56,600 --> 00:09:59,640
Speaker 1: of Commons after World War two and all the chaos

162
00:09:59,640 --> 00:10:01,480
Speaker 1: a allowed, and he stood up in the House of

163
00:10:01,559 --> 00:10:05,320
Speaker 1: Commons and he says, it has been said that democracy

164
00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:09,960
Speaker 1: is the worst system of government. And he paused, and

165
00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:13,800
Speaker 1: he said, except for all the others. And we are

166
00:10:14,000 --> 00:10:18,280
Speaker 1: testing Churchill's wisdom right now today in the United States,

167
00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:21,880
Speaker 1: as we have been all year. There's truth that that's

168
00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:25,280
Speaker 1: our system. As crazy as it is, it's still better

169
00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:27,839
Speaker 1: than a place where you live under a dictator and

170
00:10:27,920 --> 00:10:31,120
Speaker 1: an autocrat and you have no rights. And so I

171
00:10:31,559 --> 00:10:37,280
Speaker 1: I'm a long term believer in this enduring, marvelous experiment

172
00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:41,439
Speaker 1: that started over two hundred years ago. So I think

173
00:10:41,480 --> 00:10:44,920
Speaker 1: we'll work this out the hard way, but we'll get there. So, David,

174
00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:48,959
Speaker 1: what's an investor to do here? As we look at

175
00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:53,360
Speaker 1: these dire economic data. Yes, it's backward looking, but it's

176
00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:56,200
Speaker 1: really sobering. What should investors do here as they think

177
00:10:56,200 --> 00:11:00,400
Speaker 1: about the next of all eighteen months? One investor should do.

178
00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:03,880
Speaker 1: It depends on their point of view. In Cumberland's case,

179
00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:07,600
Speaker 1: in the stock market, we have some cash reserve, but

180
00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:10,559
Speaker 1: we are invested. In the U S stock market, we

181
00:11:10,640 --> 00:11:14,400
Speaker 1: are overweight the sectors which we think benefit healthcare. It's

182
00:11:14,400 --> 00:11:17,719
Speaker 1: a great example, of course, and we are underweight or

183
00:11:17,800 --> 00:11:21,440
Speaker 1: avoiding the troubled places. Trying to pick the right cruise

184
00:11:21,480 --> 00:11:24,719
Speaker 1: ship company that will survive is trying to avoid a

185
00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:27,920
Speaker 1: falling knife. Why why do that? In the rest of

186
00:11:27,960 --> 00:11:31,560
Speaker 1: the world, we are deploying moneys because we think pandemics

187
00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:36,920
Speaker 1: run their course. And in Asian countries specifically, we see

188
00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:41,679
Speaker 1: the ability of governments to respond better than we have done,

189
00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:45,000
Speaker 1: and they are doing that. Why they learned with two

190
00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:49,000
Speaker 1: two thousand and three with stars, They prepared, they have

191
00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:52,400
Speaker 1: tracing testing, they have all the facilities in place, they

192
00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:56,240
Speaker 1: apply technology, they have apps on their phones, whether it's

193
00:11:56,280 --> 00:11:59,600
Speaker 1: in a country like China or it's in South Korea,

194
00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:05,040
Speaker 1: tai one. So we favor looking at Asian recovery leading

195
00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:08,480
Speaker 1: the way coming out of this, and some are already

196
00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:11,240
Speaker 1: doing it. And in the United States, we have to

197
00:12:11,280 --> 00:12:13,760
Speaker 1: get through this forest fire in the country. Now we

198
00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:16,680
Speaker 1: don't have three ways. We don't have flattening the curve.

199
00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:20,560
Speaker 1: We have a forest fire. It's burning. It doesn't burn forever,

200
00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:24,160
Speaker 1: but it will burn for a while. David, thanks so

201
00:12:24,240 --> 00:12:27,319
Speaker 1: much for that. We really appreciate it. David Kotok, Chairman

202
00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:30,160
Speaker 1: and Chief investment Officer of Cumberland Advisors. They have over

203
00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:33,360
Speaker 1: three billion dollars in assets under mention. We always appreciate

204
00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:36,800
Speaker 1: Dave's perspective as broad perspective on the and uh, you know,

205
00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:39,640
Speaker 1: putting things in context. I think for investors, I think

206
00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:43,000
Speaker 1: that's investor's value that David has seen a few of these.

207
00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:46,840
Speaker 1: He's seen pandemics, he has seen crises, he's seen crisis

208
00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:49,240
Speaker 1: calls by all different sorts of things. He's seen market

209
00:12:49,360 --> 00:12:53,280
Speaker 1: bubbles burst, and he's in the game more than ever.

210
00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:56,959
Speaker 1: So obviously there is another side to the end of

211
00:12:57,000 --> 00:13:02,160
Speaker 1: all of this. Very excited to welcome our next guest.

212
00:13:02,320 --> 00:13:05,840
Speaker 1: Dr David S. Gorton is cardiologist and President and CEO

213
00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:09,559
Speaker 1: of the Association of American Medical Colleges or the a

214
00:13:09,559 --> 00:13:12,400
Speaker 1: a m C. He joins US now from Washington, d C.

215
00:13:13,080 --> 00:13:16,160
Speaker 1: Following an op ed in the Washington Post which was

216
00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:19,840
Speaker 1: entitled we need a COVID nineteen reset. So we developed

217
00:13:19,880 --> 00:13:23,360
Speaker 1: a comprehensive plan to do just that. Drs Gorton, thanks

218
00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:26,440
Speaker 1: for joining. What does a reset look like? Is it

219
00:13:26,679 --> 00:13:30,920
Speaker 1: a countrywide lockdown? No, Bunny, First of all, thanks for

220
00:13:30,960 --> 00:13:34,520
Speaker 1: having me on UM. It's more complicated than that. We

221
00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:38,280
Speaker 1: laid out nine immediate steps that we believe the country

222
00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:41,360
Speaker 1: needs to take in two longer term actions. And among

223
00:13:41,400 --> 00:13:45,320
Speaker 1: those nine steps, the big three are will not surprise you.

224
00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:47,600
Speaker 1: Number one is to do a better job at making

225
00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:50,960
Speaker 1: sure that we have the supplies we need from personal

226
00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:54,520
Speaker 1: protective equipment to the lab supplies that will allow us

227
00:13:54,559 --> 00:13:58,480
Speaker 1: to boost up testing. Number two is testing itself and

228
00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:01,079
Speaker 1: really nothing else that we can do in the country

229
00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:03,680
Speaker 1: that we want to do, like reopen the economy, go

230
00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:06,560
Speaker 1: back to school, go back to college, all of those

231
00:14:06,559 --> 00:14:09,640
Speaker 1: things will depend on a better ability to do testing

232
00:14:09,640 --> 00:14:12,240
Speaker 1: and turn it around more quickly than we're doing it

233
00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:14,959
Speaker 1: right now. And then, thirdly, we believe there should be

234
00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:19,040
Speaker 1: national standards on face coverings and that masks should be

235
00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:22,520
Speaker 1: mandatory in areas of growing community spread. And then there's

236
00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:25,080
Speaker 1: many other aspects, but those are those are the ones

237
00:14:25,160 --> 00:14:27,400
Speaker 1: that I believe are the most urgent we need to

238
00:14:27,400 --> 00:14:30,520
Speaker 1: work on now. Doctor, I guess For me, the biggest

239
00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:33,160
Speaker 1: frustration is that petas I look at the US relative

240
00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:36,680
Speaker 1: to other countries around the world, there has not been

241
00:14:36,720 --> 00:14:43,280
Speaker 1: a national response policy to what is clearly a national problem.

242
00:14:43,320 --> 00:14:46,000
Speaker 1: It is left to state by states. Some states like

243
00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:48,640
Speaker 1: New York have done it better than some other states

244
00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:54,280
Speaker 1: like Florida for example. Will there ever be a national response?

245
00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:56,200
Speaker 1: And if there is, where does it need to come from?

246
00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:59,840
Speaker 1: Doesn't need to come from the White House? Well, when

247
00:14:59,840 --> 00:15:02,000
Speaker 1: you ask whether ever be a national response, if I

248
00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:04,240
Speaker 1: had that crystal ball and it was as effective as that,

249
00:15:04,280 --> 00:15:06,680
Speaker 1: I'd probably be um sitting in your seat and telling

250
00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:10,360
Speaker 1: people which way to go. But um, what I would

251
00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:13,280
Speaker 1: say is the first two words of my outbed and

252
00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:18,800
Speaker 1: yesterday's post. We're we're failing, and I mean we very sincerely.

253
00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:21,720
Speaker 1: All of us need to pull together individual decisions like

254
00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:24,120
Speaker 1: whether to wear a mask, whether to be socially distant,

255
00:15:24,360 --> 00:15:27,480
Speaker 1: whether to pay attention to the evidence based advice we're

256
00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:31,280
Speaker 1: getting from the top health professionals in the country. And yes,

257
00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:34,240
Speaker 1: we believe that there is a role for government to

258
00:15:34,280 --> 00:15:39,120
Speaker 1: develop more national policies, not only the administration, Congress, but

259
00:15:39,160 --> 00:15:41,480
Speaker 1: there's also a role for the private sector. We think

260
00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:45,160
Speaker 1: that the manufacturing sector, for example, could help us. But

261
00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:47,960
Speaker 1: we're playing catch up on these supply issues. So there's

262
00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:50,880
Speaker 1: something here from everybody. But yes, there does need to

263
00:15:50,920 --> 00:15:53,520
Speaker 1: be a national view of how to go forward, and

264
00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:56,960
Speaker 1: we try to present that view in our roadmap. Is

265
00:15:57,000 --> 00:15:59,680
Speaker 1: there a time limit for this? I mean, will there

266
00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:03,280
Speaker 1: be a point beyond which of all is lost? I

267
00:16:03,280 --> 00:16:06,280
Speaker 1: don't mean to be, you know, totally apocalyptic about this,

268
00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:08,800
Speaker 1: but you know at a certain point it's too late

269
00:16:08,840 --> 00:16:14,440
Speaker 1: to implement proactive measures. Well, I'm a physician as scientist,

270
00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:17,560
Speaker 1: and I'm very very strong believer in biomedical research. Right

271
00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:20,640
Speaker 1: this minute, Bunny and Paul, there are people all over

272
00:16:20,640 --> 00:16:24,640
Speaker 1: the world working on robust vaccines right this minute. There's

273
00:16:24,720 --> 00:16:29,440
Speaker 1: people at universities and in pharmaceutical industry working on anti

274
00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:33,400
Speaker 1: viral treatments and so on. And as we've learned more

275
00:16:33,440 --> 00:16:36,920
Speaker 1: about the coronavirus on the front lines of hospitals across

276
00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:39,360
Speaker 1: the world, we've learned more and more how to provide

277
00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:43,440
Speaker 1: supportive care. So I remain an optimist about this. Nonetheless,

278
00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:48,240
Speaker 1: if we don't make some changes and soon in supplies, testing,

279
00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:52,000
Speaker 1: face coverings, and some other areas, um we're going to

280
00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:54,160
Speaker 1: have a lot more deaths, and I'd like to just

281
00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:58,720
Speaker 1: insert one issue relate to finance, if I might. One

282
00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:01,920
Speaker 1: of the difficulties of national system of health insurance that's

283
00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:06,320
Speaker 1: or fifty percent of people insured through their employer. Is

284
00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:09,680
Speaker 1: it a time where employment dips than healthcare coverage dips

285
00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:13,840
Speaker 1: as well. And one of our immediate action recommendations is

286
00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:17,920
Speaker 1: to immediately expand health insurance through COBRA. That's a mechanism

287
00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:22,040
Speaker 1: already in place, but many workers cannot afford to pay

288
00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:25,120
Speaker 1: both the employer and employee premiums for COBRA when they're

289
00:17:25,160 --> 00:17:28,160
Speaker 1: out of work. So we're asking for Congress to consider

290
00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:33,960
Speaker 1: at least partly subsidizing COBRA for a while while we're

291
00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:36,520
Speaker 1: in such a pickle in terms of employment and a

292
00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:40,480
Speaker 1: reduction in health insurance coverage. Doctor, One of the big

293
00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:44,119
Speaker 1: topics right now as it relates to our response to

294
00:17:44,119 --> 00:17:48,280
Speaker 1: the pandemic is the reopening of schools or weeks away

295
00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:50,200
Speaker 1: in many parts of the country. Many parts of country

296
00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:54,359
Speaker 1: are actually reopening now. How do you think this should

297
00:17:54,359 --> 00:17:58,879
Speaker 1: play out? One of our recommendations is to establish Tavanni's

298
00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:03,240
Speaker 1: point earlier national criteria and your point national criteria for

299
00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:07,520
Speaker 1: CAPE through twelve school reopenings and to immediately convene a

300
00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:10,959
Speaker 1: working group to study different approaches, so to bring together

301
00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:13,560
Speaker 1: the expertise to do this right. We need to bring

302
00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:18,119
Speaker 1: the educators, the teachers, We need to bring some voice

303
00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:20,679
Speaker 1: from parents and families, and of course we need to

304
00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:24,600
Speaker 1: bring the voice of public health, epidemiology and infectious diseases.

305
00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:29,040
Speaker 1: There was a recent of consensus report that I commend

306
00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:32,840
Speaker 1: to you and your listeners from the National Academy of Science, Engineering,

307
00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:36,440
Speaker 1: and Medicine just a few weeks ago, which laid out

308
00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:40,840
Speaker 1: a very important step by step process for reopening and

309
00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:42,600
Speaker 1: so we have a bit of a roadmap from the

310
00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:45,119
Speaker 1: National Academy is one of the most prestigious groups in

311
00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:47,520
Speaker 1: the country or in the world, and I think we

312
00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:50,639
Speaker 1: need to do is make up a national commitment to

313
00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:53,960
Speaker 1: listening to some of these recommendations, and then it has

314
00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:57,439
Speaker 1: to be interpreted like everything else locally, depending on the

315
00:18:57,440 --> 00:19:01,919
Speaker 1: amount of community spread, the re sources available, and the

316
00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:05,040
Speaker 1: different neighborhoods of school districts we're talking about. There's a great,

317
00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:08,159
Speaker 1: great difference, as you know, in the resources available to

318
00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:12,560
Speaker 1: school districts based on local property tax revenue and so on.

319
00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:15,520
Speaker 1: So yes, we need to pay attention to this, and

320
00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:19,320
Speaker 1: the National Academy's report is a terrific place to start. Dr.

321
00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:22,040
Speaker 1: You're a cardiologist as well as everything else, and I'm

322
00:19:22,040 --> 00:19:25,000
Speaker 1: curious as to what's been the most surprising thing for

323
00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:28,160
Speaker 1: you as a result of this COVID pandemic. What does

324
00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:31,440
Speaker 1: the disease do in terms of what you're a specialist

325
00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:37,640
Speaker 1: in that terrifies you. Well, um, from the cardiology point

326
00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:40,719
Speaker 1: of view, that has not been as prominent as issues

327
00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:43,760
Speaker 1: as you know, with the lungs, with the neurological system

328
00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:46,560
Speaker 1: and other things. But I'll say as just a physician

329
00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:48,560
Speaker 1: in general, I used to run a division of general

330
00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:52,920
Speaker 1: internal medicine. We call this a novel coronavirus because it's

331
00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:56,400
Speaker 1: the first time that we've known about this coronavirus affecting humans,

332
00:19:57,040 --> 00:19:59,800
Speaker 1: and the fact that there can be such robust spread

333
00:19:59,840 --> 00:20:04,919
Speaker 1: of a disease from asymptomatic people is quite unusual. And

334
00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:07,720
Speaker 1: of course this makes it much much harder to manage

335
00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:11,199
Speaker 1: the communities because you don't really know who's got it.

336
00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:15,280
Speaker 1: A medical commentator a couple of three months ago said

337
00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:19,520
Speaker 1: we should all act as if we have coronavirus. Put

338
00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:22,200
Speaker 1: a mask on, stay away from other people, and so

339
00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:24,560
Speaker 1: on and so forth, except those in our immediate family

340
00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:27,120
Speaker 1: with whom we're living. And I think that's a very

341
00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:30,639
Speaker 1: interesting way to look at it. But that's been a big,

342
00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:33,880
Speaker 1: big surprise. And then the other big, big surprise has

343
00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:37,480
Speaker 1: been the chameleon like effects of this virus on various

344
00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:40,120
Speaker 1: different bodily systems. And I'm sure you all have followed

345
00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:43,840
Speaker 1: the lingering effects, the neurological effects, as well as those

346
00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:47,680
Speaker 1: effects from the immune system on the lungs. He does.

347
00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:50,239
Speaker 1: Dr David Scorton, thank you so much for joining us.

348
00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:54,280
Speaker 1: We really appreciate your thoughts, uh and opinions, David. Dr

349
00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:57,080
Speaker 1: David Scorton, cardiologists and President CEO of the Association of

350
00:20:57,080 --> 00:21:00,600
Speaker 1: American Medical Colleges, giving us his thoughts on what a

351
00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:06,639
Speaker 1: national policy could look like. Well, tech analysts and tech

352
00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:09,359
Speaker 1: investors are going to be more than busy after the

353
00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:13,760
Speaker 1: close today. We have the big four tech companies, Apple, Amazon, Facebook,

354
00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:17,400
Speaker 1: and Alphabet reporting numbers. I don't think that's ever happened,

355
00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:20,880
Speaker 1: Vonnie one time at the same time on the same

356
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,719
Speaker 1: day reporting. It's gonna go. So there's gonna be a

357
00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:25,760
Speaker 1: lot to pass through from big tech. It's got a

358
00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:27,119
Speaker 1: little bit of a preview there. We can do that

359
00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:30,240
Speaker 1: with Barry Ridholtz. He's a Bloomberg opinion columnist and host

360
00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:33,360
Speaker 1: of Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. And of course

361
00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:35,480
Speaker 1: he's a founder, chairman and chief investment off Server it

362
00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:39,080
Speaker 1: holds wealth Management. So, Barry, if you needed some color

363
00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:41,680
Speaker 1: on what's going on in the tech space, I think

364
00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:44,800
Speaker 1: you're gonna get it. After the close today, You're gonna

365
00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:46,760
Speaker 1: get a lot more than color. You're gonna have a

366
00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:51,800
Speaker 1: full painting as to how four of the six companies

367
00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:55,800
Speaker 1: that have been driving two thirds of the SMP five hundred,

368
00:21:56,320 --> 00:22:00,480
Speaker 1: how well they're doing. And uh, it's gonna be interesting.

369
00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:05,160
Speaker 1: Remember back in February, Apple was the first company that

370
00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:10,040
Speaker 1: came out and said, given this nascent coronavirus pandemic, we

371
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:13,120
Speaker 1: have no visibility for the rest of the year. They

372
00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:15,960
Speaker 1: were way ahead of the curve on that. I'm really

373
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:19,040
Speaker 1: curious to see what they're going to come out and say, Yeah,

374
00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:22,320
Speaker 1: it's gonna be fascinating. I mean, will they all show

375
00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:24,919
Speaker 1: stellar results? You think Pario it feels like they are

376
00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:28,360
Speaker 1: some of the only winners out of all of this. Well,

377
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:33,280
Speaker 1: they clearly have been UM part of the stocks that

378
00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:37,280
Speaker 1: have been been driving games. Take take the ten biggest

379
00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:41,200
Speaker 1: names in the SMP five hundred on an equal weight basis,

380
00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:44,439
Speaker 1: they're up thirty four percent for the year. Take the

381
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:49,040
Speaker 1: next four hundred nine UM stocks in the SNP five

382
00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:53,280
Speaker 1: hundred on an equal weight basis, they're down eight percent

383
00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:57,880
Speaker 1: for the year. So the the earnings health of the

384
00:22:58,040 --> 00:23:00,720
Speaker 1: of the fang so called fang stocks are really important,

385
00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:03,920
Speaker 1: but I don't know if investors are going to give

386
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:08,200
Speaker 1: them a pass. If anybody says, well, this sector did

387
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:11,080
Speaker 1: well and this division did well, but we really saw

388
00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:18,080
Speaker 1: soft sales in this sector. Maybe it's iPhones, maybe it's UM.

389
00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:21,880
Speaker 1: Some form of advertising on Facebook or Google that's they

390
00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:26,680
Speaker 1: expect will return once things get back to normal. It's interesting.

391
00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:29,639
Speaker 1: I'm looking, you know, just at the the advertising driven

392
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:31,679
Speaker 1: names that we're gonna hear from tonight, in terms of

393
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:36,720
Speaker 1: Facebook and and Google parent is alphabet UM those stocks,

394
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:38,800
Speaker 1: you know, they're you know, and also looking for a

395
00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:42,880
Speaker 1: significantly slower rubbnue growth because let's face it, advertisers aren't

396
00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:44,919
Speaker 1: advertising that much. I don't care if it's on a

397
00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 1: radio or TV ed or a newspaper or on the Internet.

398
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:50,359
Speaker 1: Yet those stocks are still up their team percent. So

399
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:53,160
Speaker 1: I guess tech investors barrier, you know, willing to look

400
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 1: towards the other side of this. Yeah, I mean everybody

401
00:23:55,760 --> 00:24:00,480
Speaker 1: knows your your movies aren't advertising, restaurants aren't advertising anything.

402
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:05,480
Speaker 1: That's a face to face experience where people have a

403
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 1: tendency to um put that on hold until we get

404
00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:14,520
Speaker 1: past the pandemic. Obviously that's down. I have to think

405
00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:20,000
Speaker 1: investors understand that, and they're looking at one maybe even

406
00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:24,120
Speaker 1: past that too. It's it's hard to It's really hard

407
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:29,440
Speaker 1: to say. And one of the bigger concerns was regulatory

408
00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:33,400
Speaker 1: overreach in d C. Based on what we saw yesterday,

409
00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:35,800
Speaker 1: I don't think these four companies have a whole lot

410
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:40,840
Speaker 1: to worry about in terms of the government figuring out

411
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:43,920
Speaker 1: what they even do more or less regulating them or

412
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:47,360
Speaker 1: breaking them up. Sorry, I mean, is this the line

413
00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:51,480
Speaker 1: of the sound after this? If there are no consequences

414
00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:55,439
Speaker 1: in any way regulatory or anti trust or otherwise, do

415
00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:58,639
Speaker 1: they get Carton Lush and do we see somebody like

416
00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:01,920
Speaker 1: Jeff Bezos and start increasing prices on Amazon, which was

417
00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 1: always the original goal anyway, you know, the only historical

418
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:09,439
Speaker 1: frame of reference that that I can compare this to

419
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:13,920
Speaker 1: was Microsoft in the late nineties, and if you remember,

420
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:18,720
Speaker 1: Microsoft owned the desktop, and any time a new idea

421
00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 1: or feature or a little software program was developed, it

422
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:27,360
Speaker 1: managed to be copied and built into Windows. And once

423
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 1: the Justice Department started talking about antitrust enforcement, it really

424
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 1: led to that Cambrian explosion of websites and soft web

425
00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:43,520
Speaker 1: based software apps. And I'm wondering if something similar might

426
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:47,440
Speaker 1: not happen. Maybe we're at peak Google and peak Facebook.

427
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:52,000
Speaker 1: Given the mere fact that we're having this hearing, Microsoft

428
00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:54,640
Speaker 1: might have, you know, pulled in some of their claws

429
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:58,119
Speaker 1: a little bit when the Justice Department started poking around.

430
00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:02,440
Speaker 1: Maybe Facebook and Google and Amazon for that matter, um

431
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 1: throttle back a little bit. Apple's got a ton of

432
00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:09,720
Speaker 1: criticism for their thirty tax on the app store. Let's

433
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:13,600
Speaker 1: see if anybody wants to change, uh their current business

434
00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:19,159
Speaker 1: models to sort of keep the wolves away from you know,

435
00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 1: the crown jewels, verry. When when we do come out

436
00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:25,080
Speaker 1: of I'll put the glass half empty on on the

437
00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:27,240
Speaker 1: table here. When we do come out of this pandemic

438
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,919
Speaker 1: and the economy starts to really right itself, do you

439
00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:35,119
Speaker 1: expect investors will rotate out of these tech winners and

440
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 1: try to find some more value and possible performance from

441
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:41,159
Speaker 1: some of the more UH names that were beaten down

442
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:43,679
Speaker 1: the cyclicals and so on. You know, we've done a

443
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:46,840
Speaker 1: couple of studies on this internally. We've We've crunched a

444
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:50,480
Speaker 1: lot of numbers, and I've read other studies from people

445
00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:54,639
Speaker 1: like Bill Miller and Research Affiliates and a q R

446
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:58,359
Speaker 1: and go down the list. The key determiner as to

447
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:02,200
Speaker 1: whether it's value or growth that dominates seems to be

448
00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:06,920
Speaker 1: some combination of interest rates and inflation. When we are

449
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:12,040
Speaker 1: in a low yield environment and a very low inflationary environment,

450
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:15,800
Speaker 1: it does not work to the advantage of value, and

451
00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 1: in many ways the cheap cost of capital works to

452
00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:23,879
Speaker 1: the advantage of the bigger, more ambitious tech companies. But

453
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:27,359
Speaker 1: if people like j Professor Jeremy Siegel at Wharton are correct,

454
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 1: and when we begin to recover and all this pent

455
00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 1: up demands plus all the FED and congressional stimulus works

456
00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:37,440
Speaker 1: its way into the economy, you might see a little

457
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:40,640
Speaker 1: bump up in inflation. And if it gets to three

458
00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:42,639
Speaker 1: or four percent or more for just a year a

459
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:47,480
Speaker 1: couple of years, that should be advantageous to value stocks.

460
00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:52,399
Speaker 1: Very briefly, you know, at Redults well as management, are

461
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:55,480
Speaker 1: you buying or selling anything these days? No, We're pretty

462
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:58,920
Speaker 1: happy with the way our portfolios are configured. The most

463
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:02,720
Speaker 1: recent change we made was last quarter when we added

464
00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 1: gold to our tactical portfolio, and that that was a

465
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:10,639
Speaker 1: pretty easy call to make when you look at the

466
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:14,800
Speaker 1: possibility of inflation, and you look at the just the

467
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:17,720
Speaker 1: overall trend and then the breakout in gold. But the

468
00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:22,240
Speaker 1: thing that's been driving gold recently has been the inability

469
00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:25,320
Speaker 1: for the US Congress to agree on any sort of

470
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:29,640
Speaker 1: a second act to the Cares Act. Compared to Europe.

471
00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:33,760
Speaker 1: Look at how successfully Europe put through a new stimulus plan,

472
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:37,040
Speaker 1: and just look at the relationship between the euro and

473
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 1: the dollar. The euro was having one of its best

474
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 1: runs in a long time. The dollar did take until

475
00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:44,240
Speaker 1: five in the morning that last day, though, So Barry,

476
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:46,920
Speaker 1: we'll see what happens on Friday. Maybe we'll get something

477
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 1: out of Congress. Barry Riddles with Golden seventy ounce right now.

478
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:54,440
Speaker 1: Thank you for joining us. Barry Riddles, CEO of Riddle's

479
00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 1: Wealth Management, Bloomberg Opinion contributor and Masters in business host.

480
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:02,640
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can

481
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 1: subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever

482
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:09,920
Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn, I'm on Twitter

483
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:12,480
Speaker 1: at Bonnie Quinn, and I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter

484
00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:15,360
Speaker 1: at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always catch

485
00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 1: us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio