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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network podcast. This is your Major

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Speaker 1: League Baseball Playoff's Best Bets edition. I'm your host MLB

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Speaker 1: editor Colin Richard, joined today by writers, analysts, and overall

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Speaker 1: MLB experts Sean Zarrillo and BJ Cunningham. As a reminder,

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Speaker 1: all odds today are courtesy of BETMGM, the official ODS

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Speaker 1: provider of the Action Network podcast. Zillo, Bj, You guys

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Speaker 1: ready for the postseason or what?

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Speaker 2: Very ready?

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Speaker 3: I've been grinding my way along and betting it teams

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Speaker 3: like the Orioles, betting like the Diamondbacks, and I just

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Speaker 3: can't wait to bet on good baseball teams who are

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Speaker 3: meant to be playing baseball this late in the season.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, we got flex a couple of different muscles because

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Speaker 4: I know, me and Zarrilla have just been used to

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Speaker 4: betting on those horrible teams all season long, So now

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Speaker 4: we actually have to bet on good teams versus good teams.

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Speaker 4: So it's gonna be a little different for us, I

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Speaker 4: guess with good informators.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, good team versus good team. Let's jump right

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Speaker 1: into it. We're gonna start with the AL wild Card

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Speaker 1: game on Tuesday. It's at eight o seven pm. Eastern

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Speaker 1: on ESPN, and it's the greatest rivalry in baseball. In

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Speaker 1: a winner take all game, you couldn't really ask for

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Speaker 1: anything more. I know we all wanted chaos Game one

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Speaker 1: sixty three. The underdogs like the Blue Jays and the

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Speaker 1: Mariners for sure, but Yankees Red Sox in a winner

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Speaker 1: take all game can't beat it. We've got the Yankees

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Speaker 1: as slight minus one twenty five favorites, the Red Sox

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Speaker 1: the home team, the Red Sox at plus one oh five,

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Speaker 1: Garrett Cole versus Nathan Eovaldi the total set at eight BJA.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to start with you, your Red Sox. What

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Speaker 1: are you doing tomorrow night in the AL Wild Card Game?

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Speaker 4: Well, what's funny about Tomorrow night is actually my thirtieth birthday,

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Speaker 4: so by my favorite team, it's either going to be

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Speaker 4: an amazing birthday or horrible birthday. But I kind of

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Speaker 4: do like the Red Sox tomorrow night. I think the

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Speaker 4: line is pretty much correct right now. I don't really

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Speaker 4: project much.

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Speaker 2: Value on it.

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Speaker 4: But digging into Nathany Valdi, I mean, obviously everybody sees

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Speaker 4: his last star where you have seven earned to the Yankees,

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Speaker 4: but he's faced them in five other starts this season.

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Speaker 4: He's given up less than two earned runs in all

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Speaker 4: five of those starts. You know, three point three six

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Speaker 4: XCRA this season has been kind of a dark horse

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Speaker 4: for the cy Young and the Red Sox offense doesn't

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Speaker 4: have a lot of weaknesses. The addition of Kyle Schwarber

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Speaker 4: has been amazing. He's hitting two ninety one and as

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Speaker 4: a four to thirteen win on base average since joining

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Speaker 4: the Red Sox, along with Bogarts, Martinez and Devers, who

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Speaker 4: have all been incredibly hot over the second half of

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Speaker 4: the season. It's a tough matchup for Garrett Cale, but

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Speaker 4: I think the Yankees are deserving favorites. Again, I don't

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Speaker 4: really project much value, so I'm just gonna sit back

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Speaker 4: as a fan and kind of enjoyed the game.

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Speaker 1: Zarilla, how about you?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I have two bets on this game. I took

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Speaker 3: first five for the Red Sox a plus money. It's

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Speaker 3: since come down below head of them at about fifty

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Speaker 3: one and a half percent. Fifty two percent for the

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Speaker 3: first five innings. Kind of surprised me. But the difference

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Speaker 3: in these teams.

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Speaker 2: Is the bullpens.

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Speaker 3: The Yankees much better bullpen quality. Red Sox had some

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Speaker 3: injuries live they lost Whitlock recently. I'm not sure if

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Speaker 3: he's coming back, so they've they've just kind of gotten

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Speaker 3: banged up, and Barnes really struggled in the second half.

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Speaker 3: So projecting much bigger difference in the bullpens make the

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Speaker 3: Yankees full game favorites, but had the Red Sox as

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Speaker 3: slight first five favorites. So if plus money pop up

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Speaker 3: there again, I think that's certainly the side in terms

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Speaker 3: of money line. And I took some over eight and

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Speaker 3: a half as well. I think that's come down in

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Speaker 3: some spots to eight, so I like that up to

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Speaker 3: nine minus one oh five. Nine is a key number

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Speaker 3: in betting of baseball. Bottle totals land on that number

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Speaker 3: just because once the game gets to four to four,

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Speaker 3: you obviously have to have another run, and that is

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Speaker 3: a pretty common score. So anything under, you know, nine

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Speaker 3: minus one oh five gets the eight at plus money

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Speaker 3: or eight and a half of plus money. I would

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Speaker 3: certainly hammer that too. Just no no word yet on umpires.

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Speaker 3: Weather looks like it's going to be fairly neutral, kind

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Speaker 3: of a cool night, so nothing to make me move

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Speaker 3: the total yet other than the pure projection. I have.

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Speaker 3: But typically when you find good starting pitchers like this

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Speaker 3: going up against each other, people don't want to bet

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Speaker 3: the overs, which is why you find value betting on them.

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Speaker 3: And then just from a matchup perspective, this just interested me.

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Speaker 3: I still make the Yankees the better team overall, but

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Speaker 3: if they get to the next round and face Tampa,

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Speaker 3: I actually get Boston a better chance based off of

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Speaker 3: how the matchups work out of pulling off the upset.

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Speaker 3: So definitely something to keep an eye on because the

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Speaker 3: Red Sox I think have a one percent edge over

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Speaker 3: the Yankees in terms of pulling a upset on Tampa

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Speaker 3: for sure.

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Speaker 1: I think the one thing you touched on there that

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Speaker 1: I found really interesting is the bullpens, because that's the

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Speaker 1: one edge where I think the Yankees definitely have an advantage.

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Speaker 1: But the other thing about these wildcard games is that

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Speaker 1: the managers are going to be under such scrutiny. And

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Speaker 1: I know if you talk to Yankees fans Red Sox fans,

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Speaker 1: they'll all have their opinions on Aaron Boone. I think

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Speaker 1: with Yankees fans it's going to be more negative about

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Speaker 1: Aaron Boone. And I do think Alex cor is probably

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Speaker 1: a better strategic manager than Boone, And that's what makes

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Speaker 1: the bullpen and game so interesting is Yes, the Yankees

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Speaker 1: have much better arms there, but is Boone going to

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Speaker 1: pull all the right strings to make it happen. I

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Speaker 1: like the over here as well, mostly because I think

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Speaker 1: even if Cole and Uvalde perform like they're expected to,

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Speaker 1: we're going to get into these bullpens and it's just

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Speaker 1: going to be a mess. Are they going to overthink

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Speaker 1: themselves start to use starting pictures we can see like

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Speaker 1: Jordan Montgomery and relief if Cole gets into trouble. It's

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Speaker 1: an interesting question, especially with these winner take all games,

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Speaker 1: about picture usage, bullpen usage, especially when that's kind of

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Speaker 1: the biggest difference in these games. What do you think?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I completely agree, and honestly I want to throw it

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Speaker 3: back to you. Do you think Aaron Boone gets fired

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Speaker 3: if they lose this game?

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Speaker 2: Oh?

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Speaker 1: I wish there were odds for that. I don't think

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Speaker 1: so he made the playoffs. I know there's there's such

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Speaker 1: high expectations in New York, but I think he sticks around.

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Speaker 1: I don't think. I actually think that Boone gets sort

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Speaker 1: of a bad rap depending on or compared to how

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Speaker 1: good of a manager he is. It's so hard to

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Speaker 1: quantify these things with managers, obviously, but it's it's one

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Speaker 1: of those grasses always greener thing. It's like, yeah, you

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Speaker 1: could imagine a scenario where the Yankees could find a

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Speaker 1: manager who's a better in game tactician than Aaron Boone,

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Speaker 1: But who is that guy, you.

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Speaker 4: Know, who's the big name out there they could get

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Speaker 4: that would replace Aaron Boone on.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So I don't know, but it's going to be

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Speaker 1: a great matchup regardless. I'm definitely excited about it. Let's

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Speaker 1: jump forward and wild Card game Wednesday night is a

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Speaker 1: much different animal eight ten pm Eastern on TBS. We

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Speaker 1: have the Cardinals, the hottest team in baseball in September,

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Speaker 1: ran away and hid from the rest of the NL

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Speaker 1: wild Card competitors to get up to ninety wins or

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Speaker 1: near ninety wins, and they're going to be facing a

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Speaker 1: team that's never been in this position before the Dodgers

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Speaker 1: had their string of eight straight NL West titles snapped

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Speaker 1: by the Giants. Dodgers remind us two twenty five favorites.

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Speaker 1: As everyone would expect, the Cardinals are at plus one

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Speaker 1: point eighty the total is seven and a half. We've

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Speaker 1: got forty year old Adam Wayne right on the mound

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Speaker 1: after just an amazing season, his best in seven years

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Speaker 1: against Walker Buehler, Cy young candidate BJ. I'm gonna go

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Speaker 1: back to you once again. How do you bet a

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Speaker 1: game like this with such a huge difference in odds?

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Speaker 2: It's sure as are on the mound, right, non Bueler?

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Speaker 1: Sure?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I just wanted to make sure I had that correct.

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Speaker 4: I've missed these things before anyway, So it's interesting. So

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Speaker 4: I like to die for the first five innings minus

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Speaker 4: half around and minus one thirty four. I think there's

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Speaker 4: significant edges for the Dodgers if you look at this

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Speaker 4: from a whole season perspective. Obviously, the Cardinals have been

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Speaker 4: incredibly hot over the second half, but you know the Cardinals,

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Speaker 4: they don't hit right handed pitching that will overall for

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Speaker 4: the season. I mean three h five weighed on base average,

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Speaker 4: which is seventeenth in Major League Baseball. They really a

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Speaker 4: lot of their successes come against left handed pitching, you know,

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Speaker 4: the third in terms of weighted on base average for that,

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Speaker 4: and also from a pitch mixed perspective, I mean, sure's

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Speaker 4: there's mainly a fastball slider guy. The Cardinals overall for

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Speaker 4: the season, you know, negative fifteen point five run value

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Speaker 4: against fastballs and a negative nine run bally against sliders.

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Speaker 4: But since the trade deadline, they have a combined plus

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Speaker 4: nineteen run ball against those two pitches. So it's a

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Speaker 4: very interesting thing to look at. I mean, you can

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Speaker 4: ride the hot team and say, hey, I'm gonna back

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Speaker 4: at a way right, But overall, I mean the Dodgers

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Speaker 4: from a talel perspective, have edges everywhere you look on

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Speaker 4: the field. I mean, the Cardinals are obviously the best

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Speaker 4: defensive team in baseball, but I really think that Sharzer

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Speaker 4: has a significant edge over Waynwright in the first five innings. Here,

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Speaker 4: you know, I have for the first five innings, I

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Speaker 4: think I have the minus one and a half spread

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Speaker 4: projected at about minus one forty seven, So you can

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Speaker 4: get anything about minus one thirty four or below. I

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Speaker 4: think there's some good.

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Speaker 2: Value on that.

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Speaker 4: Overall for the game, I don't really project much value

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Speaker 4: either way or on the over under. It will be

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Speaker 4: interesting to see if the Cardinals can remain hot, if

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Speaker 4: their defense can continue to come through, and if honestly,

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Speaker 4: if their bullpen can remain red hot because they were

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Speaker 4: horrible in the first half of the season. I mean,

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Speaker 4: I think through the trade deadline they had the worst

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Speaker 4: x FIP in baseball, and then they've just gotten incredibly

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Speaker 4: hot in the month of September. So it'll be interesting

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Speaker 4: to see which team shows up on Wednesday Night, if

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Speaker 4: it's the red hot team or if it's a little

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Speaker 4: bit of the team.

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Speaker 2: That underperformed in the first half.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the first five innings is a really

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Speaker 1: interesting play here because I just really don't see a

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Speaker 1: way that you bet against sures are in a winner

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Speaker 1: take all game. But also, obviously the odds are so

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Speaker 1: huge for the Dodgers full game, and also you're looking

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Speaker 1: at a manager who's also undergone a lot of scrutiny

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Speaker 1: for his game decision making in the postseason, specifically Dave Roberts.

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Speaker 1: Obviously won a World Series last year, but he hasn't

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Speaker 1: always pulled the right strings in the playoffs. They have

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Speaker 1: ken Lee Jansen at full strength right now. He was

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Speaker 1: absolutely dominant in the second half of the season, far

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Speaker 1: cry from where he was going into the playoffs last

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Speaker 1: year when they ultimately won the World Series. But that's

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Speaker 1: what's going to be interesting. I think Scherzer obviously has

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Speaker 1: the edge over Wayne, right, but I just keep coming

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Speaker 1: back to the managers and winner take all games. Zillo,

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Speaker 1: what do you think?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, no bet on this.

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Speaker 3: Game for me yet. Protected the total seven a half,

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Speaker 3: that's where it is. The money lines the Cardinals is

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Speaker 3: starting to tick up a little bit. I see it's

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Speaker 3: over two hundred at a couple of shops, So anything

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Speaker 3: and two ten or better I would probably have to

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Speaker 3: jump in. I'm the Cardinals, but mostly I'm just rooting

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Speaker 3: for chaos here. We didn't get our chaos in the

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Speaker 3: final week of the regular season, like it all seemed

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Speaker 3: we were dead and for it and it was very disappointing.

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Speaker 3: But having futures on other teams in the NL, this

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Speaker 3: is where we create the chaos because the Dodgers even

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Speaker 3: having to play this, it's an extra round even though

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Speaker 3: it's one game, and it's still an extra round that

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Speaker 3: gets multiplied by their probability of winning each series. They're

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Speaker 3: still my projected World Series favorite, and that was very

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Speaker 3: surprising to me before I did the numbers. They're the

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Speaker 3: second favorite Twinny Nal Pennant, behind the Brewers, a couple

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Speaker 3: percentage points behind, but I have them a bit of

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Speaker 3: the head of the Brewers in World Series projections, and

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Speaker 3: obviously if they win this game will jump up substantially

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Speaker 3: in both. But in the AL there's about a one

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Speaker 3: and a half percentage point difference between the three division

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Speaker 3: winners right now, and no matter who qualifies between the

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Speaker 3: Red Sox and the Yankees, the split from top to bottom.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you basically give everybody a quarter of the

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Speaker 3: pie and we just see what happens. But the Dodgers

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Speaker 3: are the clear front runner at this point, and this

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Speaker 3: is the opportunity for the upset to happen is in

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Speaker 3: this single nation game. Mike Schultz has been very aggressive

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Speaker 3: with this bullpen all season. I mark relievers is tired

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Speaker 3: or rested on a daily basis, and I'm marked three

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Speaker 3: out of four of Diegos, Reyes Cabrera. I'm forgetting the

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Speaker 3: fourth guy, but literally every day, three out of four

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Speaker 3: of those guys were tired. I can't believe they made

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Speaker 3: it to the finish line and got better in the

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Speaker 3: second half after getting so much usage early in the season.

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Speaker 2: But they made it here, and they just have to

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Speaker 2: do it in one game. And pull it off. So

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Speaker 2: let's go Cardinals.

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Speaker 3: Maybe I'll have a bet on them, maybe not, but

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Speaker 3: if they can pull the upset, it definitely opens up

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Speaker 3: the path for other futures.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, with twenty two games remaining in the season, the

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Speaker 1: Cardinals needed to go seventeen and five to hit their

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Speaker 1: win total over this season, and they hit it with

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Speaker 1: five games remaining in the season. So that just tells

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Speaker 1: you how hot that team got. I know you guys

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Speaker 1: are shaking your heads. We can get into that a

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Speaker 1: little bit later, but let's jump ahead. We do have

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Speaker 1: two division series with matchups that have been set in

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Speaker 1: the Alds, a matchup that's very near and dear to

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Speaker 1: my I Heeart White Sox, Astros.

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Speaker 3: White Sox, White Sox, Let's go, go go.

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Speaker 1: The last time the White Sox won a playoff series,

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Speaker 1: it was in Minute Made Park. It was in Game

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Speaker 1: four of the two thousand and five World Series. It

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Speaker 1: is a moment I personally will never forget. The White

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Speaker 1: Sox are entering this series as slight underdogs plus one

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Speaker 1: oh five to the Astros minus one twenty five. The

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Speaker 1: Astros have home field advantage. Both teams have been excellent

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Speaker 1: at home this year two of the better home records

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Speaker 1: in baseball this year. I believe close matchup, tough matchup.

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Speaker 1: The winner is gonna get an AL East team in

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Speaker 1: the ALCS. That's all we know.

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Speaker 4: BJ.

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Speaker 1: Where are you looking in White Sox Astros?

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Speaker 4: It's kind of a no play for me. I think

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Speaker 4: this is a really honestly, really even matchup across the board.

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Speaker 4: I mean, if you really dig into some of the numbers,

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Speaker 4: I mean, the Red the Astros and the White Sox

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Speaker 4: bullpens have been pretty much even over the since the

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Speaker 4: trade deadline offatively, they've both been pretty even, slight edge

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Speaker 4: to the Astros, and then basically we'll just come down

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Speaker 4: to starting pitching, where I do think the White Sox

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Speaker 4: have a little bit of an advantage. Obviously the Astros

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Speaker 4: once they got Framber Valdez healthy, you know him, along

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Speaker 4: with mccullors and Luis Garcia. I mean, it's been a

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Speaker 4: fantastic uptation. But once we get down to that fourth starter,

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Speaker 4: that's going to be an interesting matchup. It's still and

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Speaker 4: Cease versus Jose Air Kitty. I I mean, I give

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Speaker 4: sees the edge there, but I don't think that there's

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Speaker 4: really much value in betting other team if you had.

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Speaker 4: If I had to pick one, I'd probably bet the

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Speaker 4: White Sox. But the starting pitching matchups are incredibly even

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Speaker 4: every single one.

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Speaker 2: It's going to be one of those.

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Speaker 4: I think I'm just gonna be betting on an individual

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Speaker 4: game basis, depending on the odds. I know the White

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Speaker 4: Sox are, I believe plus one forty in the first game.

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Speaker 4: I'm not sure who the projected starters are in those,

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Speaker 4: but I think that this series is one that I'll

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Speaker 4: just be betting on an individual game based some kind

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Speaker 4: of hold off on the series price overall. It's funny

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Speaker 4: you mentioned the start pitchers, and obviously they are phenomenal

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Speaker 4: starting pitching matchups. And the funny thing is is that

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Speaker 4: we have two a former ALS or two former cy

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Speaker 4: Young winners on both teams, and Zach Greenky and Dallas

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Speaker 4: Tykele neither of them are even gonna be in the rotation.

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Speaker 1: They've been bad. Grenky's been hurt. It sounds like he

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Speaker 1: might be available in long relief. We don't know what

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Speaker 1: the White Socks are going to do with Tykeo. But

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Speaker 1: we've been talking so much about pitching when these are

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Speaker 1: two of the three or four best offenses in baseball.

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Speaker 1: The White Sox stayed up there despite missing Luise Robert

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Speaker 1: Lloyd him and az j has Moni Grondal for long stretches.

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Speaker 1: The Astros have been world beaters, just as they have

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Speaker 1: been the last four or five years. Overs pretty much

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Speaker 1: all series long, because as good as these pitchers are

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Speaker 1: a lot of them are worn out. You know Lance

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Speaker 1: Lynn and Lucas Gilito coming back from minor injuries. We

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Speaker 1: don't know about Carlos Rodon so I'm going to be

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Speaker 1: looking at overs. I think the game one total right

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Speaker 1: now is eight. We're talking series price though, Dearillo, where

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Speaker 1: do you have this matchup?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you guys said it to be a really close series.

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Speaker 3: I have every game in this series projected between fifty

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Speaker 3: one and fifty four percent on either side, so I

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Speaker 3: mean point five point flips.

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Speaker 2: Basically.

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Speaker 3: Have Astros features mentioned. The Yankees and Rays have their

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Speaker 3: futures too. The White Sox are the one team that

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Speaker 3: has terrified me, but we will get to them in

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Speaker 3: a minute, because I think that there's time to buy

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Speaker 3: it now. But even for this series, I was surprised.

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Speaker 3: I have the Astros rate as as a better team,

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Speaker 3: But I think it's because all the right handed pitching

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Speaker 3: for the White Sox actually make them slate favorites in

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Speaker 3: this series, have them as slightly bigger favorites at home

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Speaker 3: set are closer to fifty three percent than I make

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Speaker 3: for the Astros in their home games closer to fifty

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Speaker 3: one percent, so slightly in fifty and a half percent

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Speaker 3: here to Chicago. Series price was up around plus one

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Speaker 3: twenty around the market when I looked, I would definitely

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Speaker 3: jump in on that.

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Speaker 2: I think that's a plus ev play regardless of whatever

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Speaker 2: future positions you have.

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Speaker 3: And I think they're just improving just because they've gotten

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Speaker 3: everybody healthy back in time the playoffs. You would be

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Speaker 3: able to tell better than me, Colin, but this might

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Speaker 3: be the healthiest they've been all season.

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Speaker 2: But Lewis Robert is playing, they're.

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Speaker 3: Really dangerous because this kid is playing like one of

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Speaker 3: the best players in baseball. He's hitting three point fifty

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Speaker 3: with a one thousand ops and at one seventy three

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Speaker 3: WRC plus since he came back in early August.

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Speaker 2: I mean, what else do we want?

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Speaker 3: That is what we expected from a guy like Byron

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Speaker 3: Buxton when he eventually hit his ceiling, similar type of

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Speaker 3: player with the ability to play both ways. The one

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Speaker 3: major concern for Chicago's defense. They finished well into the

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Speaker 3: negative defensive run stated this season, but they kind of

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Speaker 3: shed a lot of those problems. It was guys like

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Speaker 3: Zach Collins, who was replacing Galsmani Grondal, having to put

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Speaker 3: people like Gavin Sheep in the field, Andrew Vaughn playing

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Speaker 3: around the diamond a little bit, So they got damed

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Speaker 3: in terms of defensive runs for guys who aren't necessarily

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Speaker 3: still contributing to the team and going to be a

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Speaker 3: regular part of the lineup in the playoffs. The one

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Speaker 3: whole to look out for defensively is Casar Hernandez. But

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Speaker 3: I definitely think his back brings a little bit of

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Speaker 3: a mention to the lineup as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's funny. It's funny you say that too, because

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Speaker 1: I believe Hernandez won the AL gold Glove last year,

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Speaker 1: not that gold gloves mean a whole lot anymore.

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Speaker 3: Season in a while where he's kind of been bad,

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Speaker 3: But yeah, I'm not sure what's going into that number,

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Speaker 3: but he's the only current player that stands out.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and this is the healthiest they've been all season.

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Speaker 1: You're right, they even got a couple of their kind

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Speaker 1: of less integral bullpen pieces back. Ryan Tipera came off

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Speaker 1: the I L right at the end of the season there,

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Speaker 1: and the bullpen is an interesting question mark too, because

392
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Speaker 1: Craig Kimberl's been very bad since they acquired him from

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Speaker 1: the Cubs of the trade deadline. But you're still looking

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Speaker 1: at Craig Kimberl and Liam Hendricks at the back of

395
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Speaker 1: the bullpen. Who if they performed as they're expected, you know,

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Speaker 1: you don't get any better than that. Even in New

397
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Speaker 1: York with you know, Chad Green and a world as Chapman,

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Speaker 1: you just don't get any better than Hendricks and Kimberl.

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Speaker 1: Hendricks had his I believe as zero era in the

400
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Speaker 1: month of September. If it wasn't zero, it was zero

401
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Speaker 1: point something. So I mean, that's a perfect transition though,

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Speaker 1: because we're going to talk well we're going to talk

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Speaker 1: al Pennant prices here in a little bit, but let's

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Speaker 1: jump over to the other end LDS series that has

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Speaker 1: been set Braves brewersh Well, probably the division series I'm

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Speaker 1: most interested in, if only because these two teams are

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Speaker 1: very evenly matched. I think the pitching matchups are are underrated.

408
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Speaker 1: Everyone knows about the Brewers trio, but the Braves trio

409
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Speaker 1: of Max Freed, Ian Anderson and Charlie Morton is phenomenally underrated.

410
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Speaker 1: And whoever gets out of this matchup is going to

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Speaker 1: get either the Giants, Dodgers or Cardinals that just went

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Speaker 1: through an absolute gauntlet to get there. Braves and Brewers'

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Speaker 1: futures are interesting, but for this matchup, the Brewers are.

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Speaker 1: It was kind of surprising to me to see the

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Speaker 1: Brewers as high as minus one forty favorites. We have

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Speaker 1: the Braves plus one point fifteen. We'll go back to

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Speaker 1: bj What do you like in Braves Brewers?

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Speaker 4: I do like the Braves, Like you mentioned, I mean,

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Speaker 4: there are some concerning things for the Brewers that have

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Speaker 4: and over the second half of the season. I mean, obviously,

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Speaker 4: you know, we've just been riding Zerrilla's cotails with the

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Speaker 4: Brewers all season long, but there are a lot of concerns,

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Speaker 4: especially with their bullpen. Now Devin Williams is going to

424
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Speaker 4: be out obviously their second best reliever, but since the

425
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Speaker 4: trade deadline, the Brewers twenty fourth in Era twenty fourth

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Speaker 4: and walk per nine rate twenty second and left on

427
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Speaker 4: base percentage, and their offense is honestly really concerning as well.

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Speaker 4: I mean, of the teams in the playoffs, I think

429
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Speaker 4: they might have the worst offense over the second half

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Speaker 4: of the season eighteenth and waited on bass average twenty

431
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Speaker 4: second and wait runs created. Plus they're twenty eighth against

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Speaker 4: fast balls and they're going to see a heavy dose

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Speaker 4: of them in this series against the Braves.

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Speaker 2: I really do like the Braves in this one.

435
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Speaker 4: I know they've had injuries over the second half of

436
00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:46,320
Speaker 4: the season, but they do have a better offense.

437
00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:47,840
Speaker 2: Their bullpen hasn't been.

438
00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:51,120
Speaker 4: Backrad over the second half, but it's been a little

439
00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:53,959
Speaker 4: better than the Brewers, and basically then it will come

440
00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:56,640
Speaker 4: down to the starting pitching matchup and can the Brewers

441
00:20:56,720 --> 00:20:59,719
Speaker 4: three starters overtake this entire series And that's a big

442
00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:02,199
Speaker 4: question mark for me right now. Obviously the Brewers have

443
00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:05,400
Speaker 4: Josh Hater, but outside of him, there's really not much

444
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:07,960
Speaker 4: else now that Williams has gone. So I really do

445
00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:10,800
Speaker 4: like the Braves in this series. I mean, even though

446
00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:13,399
Speaker 4: Acuni went down, Adam Duval looks like, I don't know,

447
00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:15,400
Speaker 4: maybe the best power hitter in baseball in the month

448
00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:17,800
Speaker 4: of September. I think he hit like eight home runs.

449
00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:20,639
Speaker 1: Let the Allen RBI. I couldn't believe that when I

450
00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:22,560
Speaker 1: saw that. I know, no one cares about RBI and

451
00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:24,960
Speaker 1: more I certainly don't from a value stand but he let.

452
00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:25,719
Speaker 4: The on Allen RBI.

453
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:27,120
Speaker 2: Unbelievable.

454
00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:29,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, so they still have good hitters all throughout their lineup.

455
00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:31,479
Speaker 4: I mean, obviously Freddy Freeman still one of the best

456
00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:34,959
Speaker 4: hitters in baseball. So I think there is some value

457
00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:38,120
Speaker 4: on the Braves in this series to take down the Brewers.

458
00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:41,800
Speaker 4: But yeah, it will really just come down to can

459
00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:44,760
Speaker 4: the Brewers three starters really just take over the series?

460
00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:47,920
Speaker 1: Yeah? These are You can correct me if I'm wrong

461
00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:50,120
Speaker 1: about the Zilla, but these are I believe the two

462
00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:53,160
Speaker 1: worst offenses in the playoffs, at least if you're looking

463
00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:55,680
Speaker 1: at weighteds created plus the Cardinals might be down there

464
00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:58,800
Speaker 1: with them. But in looking at the numbers, I believe

465
00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,760
Speaker 1: the Braves are closer to league average, maybe even slightly

466
00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:06,399
Speaker 1: above league average since the All Star break ish, so

467
00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:08,919
Speaker 1: that brings you know, that just shows how bad they

468
00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:12,639
Speaker 1: were in the first half. If nothing else, I do

469
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 1: think they're you know, the Braves are insanely underrated in

470
00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:18,320
Speaker 1: postseason futures, I feel like in a yearly basis, but

471
00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:22,440
Speaker 1: they also routinely underwhelm in the playoffs on a regular basis.

472
00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:24,399
Speaker 1: So where do you have this? Do you do you

473
00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:26,040
Speaker 1: also think there's value on the Braves?

474
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:26,200
Speaker 2: Here?

475
00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:28,520
Speaker 1: Are you siding with the Brewers who you wrote all

476
00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:29,080
Speaker 1: season long?

477
00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:31,600
Speaker 3: I think you said there was a plus one Did

478
00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:33,440
Speaker 3: you say a plus one forty out there on SAT

479
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:34,920
Speaker 3: or on Atlanta?

480
00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:38,959
Speaker 1: I have plus one fifteen and minus one forty.

481
00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:41,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that's probably about right.

482
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:44,639
Speaker 3: I had Milwaukee at fifty three percent, so I didn't

483
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:48,280
Speaker 3: play into that series yet. The key matchups are the

484
00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:52,680
Speaker 3: the likely Corbyn Burns Max Reed starts, because that's where

485
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:55,520
Speaker 3: I give Milwaukee the biggest advantages in Burns start. I

486
00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:58,399
Speaker 3: have them at sixty percent in Game two, so they

487
00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:01,080
Speaker 3: need to win those games otherwise it's definitely a coin

488
00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:03,240
Speaker 3: flip if not favoring Atlanta at that point.

489
00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:08,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, Freddy Peralta has been pretty bad and the well

490
00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:10,960
Speaker 1: not bad as bad as too strong of a word.

491
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:12,960
Speaker 1: He struggled a little bit in the second half. He

492
00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:15,560
Speaker 1: left a few starts early. I do think those pitching

493
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:17,800
Speaker 1: matchups are going to be interesting, though, I don't know

494
00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:19,840
Speaker 1: if even for sure, if we're going to get Burns,

495
00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:22,879
Speaker 1: Freedom might be Burns Morton, right, and where would you

496
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:25,760
Speaker 1: have that? Does that? Does that change anything for you?

497
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:28,359
Speaker 3: It doesn't because it's within the same series, so that

498
00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 3: the offensive matchups just kind of play out the same

499
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:34,840
Speaker 3: and the percentages adjust, you know, across those two games

500
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:37,840
Speaker 3: as long as they're both home starts, basically, so it

501
00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 3: wouldn't move it much if at all. But Atlanta, you

502
00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:43,760
Speaker 3: were mentioning their offense, they have been better in the

503
00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:48,119
Speaker 3: second half. The bottom threes in Atlanta, Saint Louis and Milwaukee.

504
00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:52,639
Speaker 3: Milwaukee's nine percent plague average Atlanta was two percent below

505
00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:55,880
Speaker 3: in the second half. Their pitching was top five in baseball,

506
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 3: and it was mostly driven by their starters. Still have

507
00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:01,080
Speaker 3: concerns about their bullpen. If it goes to Game four

508
00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 3: and they decide to do the wa Star Knower thing,

509
00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:05,520
Speaker 3: I don't necessarily know how that's going to go. I

510
00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:09,000
Speaker 3: still think he's a long term bullpen piece, just a

511
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:11,360
Speaker 3: two pitch guy, an elite second pitch with his slider,

512
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 3: But once you sit on that slider, he has nothing else.

513
00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:16,240
Speaker 2: And if he can't command it, he's not going to

514
00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:17,000
Speaker 2: do anything with it.

515
00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:20,520
Speaker 3: So how hard are the Brewers willing to push these starters?

516
00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:23,440
Speaker 3: Do they not go to an Adrian Hauser in Game four?

517
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:25,720
Speaker 3: Do they just kind of do what the Nationals did

518
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:27,800
Speaker 3: and try to ride three guys all the way to

519
00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:30,560
Speaker 3: the World Series. That's very possible, so I would certainly

520
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 3: inflate their projection a little bit if they're willing to

521
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 3: do that. I don't think Atlanta is willing to do

522
00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:37,840
Speaker 3: that with their three guys, especially having just resigned Morton

523
00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 3: and giving all the pitcher and injuries they had. I

524
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:42,480
Speaker 3: don't know if they're going to overextend guys this year

525
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 3: to potentially sacrifice next year too.

526
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 2: So this is the Brewers window.

527
00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:48,880
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be surprised if they just leaned into it

528
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 3: like the Nationals did and just run the same three

529
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:54,800
Speaker 3: guys out every five days or four days. But yeah,

530
00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:58,280
Speaker 3: no play on this series for me yet. We will

531
00:24:58,320 --> 00:24:59,880
Speaker 3: talk about Atlanta a little bit in a moment.

532
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:02,800
Speaker 1: I think if Flosker, you know, makes a start for

533
00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:04,639
Speaker 1: the Braves, the only bet I'm going to make is

534
00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:08,160
Speaker 1: on him to hit a dinger, because the dude, the dude,

535
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 1: can Rake. I think it was before he became a thing,

536
00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:14,240
Speaker 1: there was. I believe it was Corbyn Burns hit a

537
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:16,840
Speaker 1: homer off of Clayton Kershaw on the playoffs a few

538
00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:19,800
Speaker 1: years ago. Or was it Woodruff. I might be mixing

539
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:21,679
Speaker 1: the two up, but I know a Brewers pitcher hit

540
00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:25,000
Speaker 1: a homer off Kershaw a few years ago. So yeah, yeah,

541
00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:30,359
Speaker 1: you know what, taking Peralta or whoever he faces deep,

542
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:34,080
Speaker 1: that's going to be on my agenda. Okay, so those

543
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 1: are the matchups we know about. The most intriguing matchups

544
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:41,399
Speaker 1: to me, though, are those those long term futures. A

545
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:43,400
Speaker 1: lot of people have been sitting on long term futures

546
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:45,720
Speaker 1: for six months. Now we have an opportunity to throw

547
00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:48,400
Speaker 1: some more money down on futures. We're going to talk

548
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:51,159
Speaker 1: Pennant odds and we're going to talk World Series odds.

549
00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:55,200
Speaker 1: Let's start in the American League, where the three teams

550
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:58,880
Speaker 1: that aren't in the wild card game are very closely bunged.

551
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:02,160
Speaker 1: The Astros our slight favorites plus two to twenty five

552
00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:05,359
Speaker 1: over the Rays two seventy five, the White Sox plus

553
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:08,600
Speaker 1: three hundred, and then you have your two AL wild

554
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:11,280
Speaker 1: card teams the Yankees at plus five fifty, Red Sox

555
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 1: plus six hundred is their value on any of these teams?

556
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,520
Speaker 1: BJ Yes, I think.

557
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:19,239
Speaker 4: That there is value on the Red Sox now as

558
00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:22,719
Speaker 4: the long shot at plus six hundred. The reality is

559
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:24,600
Speaker 4: the Red Sox are a long shot for a reason

560
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 4: is because their bullpen has just been atrocious.

561
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:28,040
Speaker 2: Like that's that's basically the reason.

562
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 4: In Their offense also is way down there in terms

563
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:33,840
Speaker 4: of defensive run safe But they, like I've said before,

564
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 4: they have a fantastic offense. They have a killer two

565
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:40,120
Speaker 4: through five in their lineup. They don't really have any

566
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 4: weaknesses from a pitch value standpoint. They have a positive

567
00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:46,000
Speaker 4: run value against every single pitch type and their top

568
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:51,400
Speaker 4: three against changeups, curveballs, and sliders. And honestly, I have

569
00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 4: some question marks with the Rays starting rotation right now.

570
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:58,720
Speaker 4: Obviously Shane bos is up here, but the rest of

571
00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 4: their starter is Ryan Yarborough, Shane McClanahan, Michael Waka, Drew Rasmussen.

572
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:06,400
Speaker 4: I really question what the Rays are gonna do. Are

573
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:08,800
Speaker 4: they just going to completely lean on their bullpen throughout

574
00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:11,360
Speaker 4: the entire playoffs and only you know it gives those

575
00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:14,080
Speaker 4: guys a really short Leach because you know, the Red

576
00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 4: Sox can hit all of those guys that I just

577
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:18,840
Speaker 4: mentioned outside of you know, Shane Baz has only made

578
00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:21,160
Speaker 4: you know, three starts in the majors. The other four

579
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:24,320
Speaker 4: guys have an xc RA either close to four or

580
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:26,920
Speaker 4: over four. And the Red Sox top three starters, you know, Saale,

581
00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:31,240
Speaker 4: Vivaldi and and Wuarde bad Ariguez all have x he

582
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 4: are and x fips around either three and a half

583
00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:33,760
Speaker 4: or below.

584
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:35,920
Speaker 2: So you give this Red Sox.

585
00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:38,359
Speaker 4: An edge from starting pitching perspective. Now, the bullpen edge

586
00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:41,199
Speaker 4: is a very large gap between the Rays and the

587
00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:43,200
Speaker 4: Red Sox, but you know a lot of the races

588
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:45,680
Speaker 4: success also has come against right handed pitching, and two

589
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 4: of the top the Red Sox top three starters are lefties.

590
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:51,520
Speaker 4: You know, the Rays are fourteenth and where it runs

591
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 4: created plus are sorry weight on bass average against left

592
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:56,560
Speaker 4: handed pitching. So, like Sean mentioned, I think the Red

593
00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:58,800
Speaker 4: Sox have a much better chance than the Yankees do

594
00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:00,840
Speaker 4: of upsetting the Ray. And then you know, you get

595
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:03,960
Speaker 4: to the al Cs and basically you know they'll be

596
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:06,080
Speaker 4: underdogs again to the White Sox or the Astros.

597
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:08,600
Speaker 2: But the Red Sox do have three really good starters.

598
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:11,399
Speaker 4: They have an amazing offense that really doesn't have a

599
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:13,600
Speaker 4: lot of weaknesses, and they can hit both left and

600
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:15,680
Speaker 4: right handed pitching, the question mark will just be down

601
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:18,680
Speaker 4: to their bullpen, So that obviously scares me. But then again,

602
00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:20,359
Speaker 4: you're getting good I think you're getting good value on

603
00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:22,639
Speaker 4: them at plus six hundred to win the al.

604
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:25,600
Speaker 1: Well, the Nationals proved two years ago that you can

605
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:28,520
Speaker 1: win a World Series with a terrible bullpen, although the

606
00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:32,160
Speaker 1: Nationals have Max Scherzer and Steven Strasburg in their rotation,

607
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:35,400
Speaker 1: so that was a little different. It's terrifying, and it's

608
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 1: very difficult for me to bet a long term future

609
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 1: on a team that's about to play a winner take

610
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 1: all game. I understand the value there, but that's that's

611
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:46,920
Speaker 1: a really tough sell for me. Zarrilla. Are you looking

612
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 1: at one of those long shots too, or where do

613
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:50,160
Speaker 1: you see value in the pennant?

614
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 3: So I have futures that have given out throughout the

615
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:58,239
Speaker 3: year Astros preseason, Rays and Yankees in season, and I

616
00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:00,640
Speaker 3: don't disagree with BJ. I think the Reds, with the

617
00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:03,040
Speaker 3: way their pitching is coming together, with sale coming back

618
00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:04,920
Speaker 3: if they do get past the wild card game. They

619
00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:07,120
Speaker 3: will probably go as far as sales able to take

620
00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:09,080
Speaker 3: them on top of the of all the in Rodriguez.

621
00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:11,600
Speaker 3: But the team who I think offers value is the

622
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:14,320
Speaker 3: White Sox. I projected their penan odds at two to eighty,

623
00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:16,680
Speaker 3: so compared to that line up at MGM at plus

624
00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 3: three hundred, there's about a percent percent and a half

625
00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:20,240
Speaker 3: of value there.

626
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 1: You know.

627
00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:23,440
Speaker 2: It's they kind of have the same deal with.

628
00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 3: A starter that could put them over the top with Radon,

629
00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:30,320
Speaker 3: but it's really a question of health for him. And frankly,

630
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:33,120
Speaker 3: I'm not that concerned because the way I've always looked

631
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:38,240
Speaker 3: at guys like Garrett Crochet and Michael Kopek are just

632
00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:42,560
Speaker 3: bulletproof playoff firemen who are going to come in in

633
00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 3: the middle of a game and give you two lockdown

634
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:49,680
Speaker 3: innings each and present completely different looks while throwing flames

635
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:52,520
Speaker 3: at you. And when you look at the balance between

636
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:56,120
Speaker 3: the White Sox rotation and bullpen, my only concern is

637
00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:58,440
Speaker 3: how Tony go Rusa deploys people, and we know that

638
00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:00,560
Speaker 3: that can definitely be a question mark. It's going to

639
00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 3: be worry whether you want it to be or not,

640
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 3: because of everything that comes with him but the White

641
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:09,640
Speaker 3: Sox are certainly built to be better in the playoffs

642
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:11,640
Speaker 3: than they're in the postseason with the way their roster

643
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:14,719
Speaker 3: is sort of toploaded with the talent. So I definitely

644
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:17,320
Speaker 3: think the White Sox offer value from a pen and perspective.

645
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:20,280
Speaker 3: I'm just thinking about how to play it personally, because

646
00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:22,160
Speaker 3: I have a chance to have futures on all four

647
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:25,040
Speaker 3: of these teams. Do I go for potentially a pen

648
00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:27,680
Speaker 3: and future to you know, neutralize the risk that I

649
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:29,840
Speaker 3: have on my other through waders, or do I go

650
00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 3: with the world serious future and just hope the best

651
00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:34,360
Speaker 3: team with the longest odds gets through.

652
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 2: So still milling over those decisions.

653
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:40,280
Speaker 3: But White Sox would definitely be one of the three

654
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:42,520
Speaker 3: teams I think offer pen and value, but the only

655
00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:43,160
Speaker 3: team in the al.

656
00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:47,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, Kopek is definitely a huge expector you mentioned him

657
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 1: and Crochet. Larus's usage will be a question mark, but

658
00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:55,640
Speaker 1: he could one hundred percent be an Andrew Miller esque

659
00:30:55,880 --> 00:31:01,880
Speaker 1: arm comes out there and just breathes fire for however

660
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:04,680
Speaker 1: many times they need him to. Probably going to be

661
00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:08,240
Speaker 1: in the starting rotation next year, but obviously a huge,

662
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:10,480
Speaker 1: a huge asset for them out of that Bullpen.

663
00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:16,760
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664
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693
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:47,520
Speaker 5: Let's get back to the show.

694
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 1: Let's jump over to the National League. Things are a

695
00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:56,640
Speaker 1: little bit more spread out there. The Giants i mentioned

696
00:32:57,240 --> 00:33:01,520
Speaker 1: held off the Dodgers in all time battle between two

697
00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:04,720
Speaker 1: one hundred and five one hundred and six plus win teams,

698
00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:07,520
Speaker 1: and they're still sitting behind the Dodgers. In the odds.

699
00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:10,440
Speaker 1: The Dodgers are plus two hundred, Giants plus two fifty

700
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:14,600
Speaker 1: Brewers are plus three twenty five Braves plus five hundred,

701
00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:17,320
Speaker 1: and then the Cardinals all the way down at plus

702
00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:20,640
Speaker 1: one thousand. I'd be curious if we've ever seen a

703
00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:23,800
Speaker 1: playoff team in the in the ten team format who

704
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:28,760
Speaker 1: opened the playoffs as high as the Cardinals plus one thousand.

705
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:29,640
Speaker 2: BJ.

706
00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:31,280
Speaker 1: What are you looking at in the National League.

707
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 4: Well, I'll be honest, I love the Giants. I think

708
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 4: their odds right now maybe a little too low as

709
00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:40,240
Speaker 4: as far as NL Pennant is concerned. We've already kind

710
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 4: of touched on the Braves at five to one.

711
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 2: I think that.

712
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:46,240
Speaker 4: Probably offers the most value right now.

713
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 2: You know, we've already went through it.

714
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:50,680
Speaker 4: They do have three good starters, they have a good offense.

715
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:52,720
Speaker 4: Their bullpen is a little bit of a question mark

716
00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:56,920
Speaker 4: right now. But you know, the thing about for me is,

717
00:33:57,000 --> 00:34:01,040
Speaker 4: especially with the Giants, is I think they're still throughout

718
00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:01,360
Speaker 4: the season.

719
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:03,720
Speaker 2: I mean I think they've you know, you've.

720
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:05,959
Speaker 4: Had your chance basically with the Giants all throughout the season,

721
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 4: you know to basically get in on them, whether it

722
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:10,920
Speaker 4: be you know, pene futures or World Series odds. And

723
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:13,160
Speaker 4: now it's kind of gotten to the point where they're

724
00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:15,520
Speaker 4: probably going to play the Dodgers in the next round.

725
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:20,919
Speaker 4: So it becomes an interesting thought experiment of Okay, what

726
00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:24,840
Speaker 4: is the Giants' series odds going to be against the Dodgers.

727
00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:26,200
Speaker 4: Is it going to be more than plus two to

728
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:27,640
Speaker 4: fifty or is it going to be less? I think

729
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:30,240
Speaker 4: it's probably going to be far less than plus two fifty.

730
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:33,280
Speaker 4: I'm sure the Dodgers will probably be over minus two hundred.

731
00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:35,440
Speaker 4: And then when we get if the Giants do get

732
00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:37,440
Speaker 4: past the Dodgers and we get to a series versusy

733
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:39,920
Speaker 4: of the Brewers or the Braves, the Giants are going

734
00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:42,160
Speaker 4: to have significant edges over both of those teams, and

735
00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:44,840
Speaker 4: they're probably going to be pretty good favorites. So the

736
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:47,080
Speaker 4: question now is do you buy in on the Giants

737
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:51,120
Speaker 4: at plus two fifty and basically use that as a

738
00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:55,919
Speaker 4: series price against the Dodgers, assuming obviously the Dodgers beat

739
00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:58,480
Speaker 4: the Cardinals and then hedge out when you know you

740
00:34:58,520 --> 00:35:01,200
Speaker 4: basically get to the next round when they're favorites. Or

741
00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:03,560
Speaker 4: do you go another route and take the Braves of

742
00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:05,480
Speaker 4: five to one. I kind of like taking the Giants

743
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:07,440
Speaker 4: at plus two fifty again just from a straight like,

744
00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:10,040
Speaker 4: you know, value to win. I don't think there's much

745
00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:13,759
Speaker 4: value on it. But through that thought experiment of it's

746
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:16,239
Speaker 4: probably gonna be better odds than what their serious price

747
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:17,640
Speaker 4: against the Dodgers is going to be, and then you

748
00:35:17,680 --> 00:35:21,080
Speaker 4: also have a chance to hedge in the NLCS. I

749
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:23,800
Speaker 4: do think that that's maybe worth a bet right now,

750
00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:27,960
Speaker 4: But again, I mean, the Dodgers obviously are the favorites

751
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:30,440
Speaker 4: for a reason. You also have the chance with that

752
00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:34,160
Speaker 4: bet of if the Cardinals somehow upset the Dodgers, well,

753
00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:37,000
Speaker 4: then you're sitting in a fantastic place because if the

754
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:39,279
Speaker 4: Cardinals somehow win those futures odds for the Giants, I

755
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:42,680
Speaker 4: mean they might be minus one ten probably or some

756
00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:47,000
Speaker 4: work close to even money to win the NL through

757
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:49,799
Speaker 4: the four teams. So yeah, for me right now, I'll

758
00:35:49,840 --> 00:35:52,319
Speaker 4: go Giants at plus two fifty and also Braves at

759
00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:53,200
Speaker 4: plus five hundred.

760
00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:56,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Giants are amazing to me. They're the least

761
00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:59,400
Speaker 1: talked about one hundred and seven win team in baseball history.

762
00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:02,160
Speaker 1: I think that there was a short while there in

763
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:05,920
Speaker 1: like August, where they jumped the Dodgers and NL West odds,

764
00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:09,120
Speaker 1: but up until like the last five days of the season,

765
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:12,000
Speaker 1: the Dodgers were still favored to win the win the

766
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 1: NL West. And it's it's hard to blame them. I mean, Zarilla,

767
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:17,440
Speaker 1: you talked about how you still make the Dodgers World

768
00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:19,480
Speaker 1: Series favorites despite the fact that they have to play

769
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:22,160
Speaker 1: a winner take all game. The Giants are sitting there,

770
00:36:22,200 --> 00:36:25,239
Speaker 1: and yeah, you had, like you mentioned bj, You've had

771
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:28,239
Speaker 1: multiple opportunities to buy in on the Giants at good

772
00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:32,840
Speaker 1: odds all season long. Zarella, you already mentioned the Dodgers

773
00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:35,040
Speaker 1: are our favorites, but is their value on any of

774
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:35,800
Speaker 1: the other four.

775
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:38,960
Speaker 3: Team Just for contexts, I would make the Dodgers about

776
00:36:39,120 --> 00:36:42,200
Speaker 3: fifty seven percent against the Giants in a series if

777
00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:45,480
Speaker 3: they win wildcard game, and then closer to sixty percent

778
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:48,360
Speaker 3: against a lot of these teams, So they're they're pretty

779
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:52,160
Speaker 3: tough to overcome with that rotations they have going. So

780
00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:55,000
Speaker 3: there's there's two teams in the endmal that technically offer

781
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:58,280
Speaker 3: penn and value right now, but looking at the market

782
00:36:58,320 --> 00:37:00,320
Speaker 3: holds on that and it's a it's going to be

783
00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:02,719
Speaker 3: a big difference whether the Dodgers and Cardinals win, But

784
00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:05,759
Speaker 3: there's about a ten percent hold in that market, meaning

785
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:08,279
Speaker 3: they're giving you odds that imply that these teams win

786
00:37:08,320 --> 00:37:10,560
Speaker 3: one hundred and ten percent of the time, But in reality,

787
00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:13,279
Speaker 3: you can only project that to one hundred percent, and

788
00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:16,280
Speaker 3: negative nine percent of that is on the Dodgers line.

789
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 2: I have that projected closer to plus three twenty five

790
00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:20,920
Speaker 2: before they.

791
00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:23,640
Speaker 3: Play this wildcard game, and I'll obviously shorten closer to

792
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:25,920
Speaker 3: what I think the odds are now, if not lower,

793
00:37:26,160 --> 00:37:28,000
Speaker 3: I would have it about plus one to eighty win

794
00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:29,960
Speaker 3: the pennant if they end up winning the wildcard game.

795
00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:33,480
Speaker 3: So technically is there's value on the Braves and the Brewers,

796
00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:36,040
Speaker 3: but I think it's somewhat artificial. I wouldn't play this

797
00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:38,200
Speaker 3: before the wildcard game the White Sox. I think you

798
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:40,799
Speaker 3: can go ahead and play now, just because I don't

799
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 3: really see the result of the wildcard game impacting my

800
00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:46,759
Speaker 3: projection much. But this projection will change substantially depending on

801
00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:49,360
Speaker 3: if the Dodgers win or not. I mean, if you're

802
00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:52,160
Speaker 3: willing to take a shot somewhat against the Dodgers in

803
00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:54,880
Speaker 3: this wildcard game, consider an n openant future on the

804
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:57,239
Speaker 3: Brewers or the Braves. That might be a better way

805
00:37:57,320 --> 00:37:59,560
Speaker 3: to play it than playing this game straight up. Because

806
00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:01,840
Speaker 3: I think are the two best teams in the natural

807
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:04,840
Speaker 3: League besides the Dodgers. I would put the Giants behind

808
00:38:04,880 --> 00:38:06,880
Speaker 3: them with all the respects, so what they everything had

809
00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:09,200
Speaker 3: done this year. But yeah, I would make the lines

810
00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:11,520
Speaker 3: respectively closer to about plus two to eighty for the

811
00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:14,719
Speaker 3: Brewers and plus three eighty for the Braves. So at

812
00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:16,800
Speaker 3: plus three hundred plus four fifty, those would be the

813
00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:17,319
Speaker 3: value plus.

814
00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:21,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's hard to find value on the Dodgers period.

815
00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:23,960
Speaker 1: It has been since the odds came out to go,

816
00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:26,400
Speaker 1: you know, eleven months ago when as soon as the

817
00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:31,400
Speaker 1: uh the parade ended for their twenty twenty World Series title.

818
00:38:32,200 --> 00:38:35,520
Speaker 1: Speaking of World Series titles, that's the most interesting play here.

819
00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:38,600
Speaker 1: I'm gonna throw something at you, guys, and you're gonna

820
00:38:38,600 --> 00:38:42,080
Speaker 1: call me crazier. You're not, but I am all over

821
00:38:42,640 --> 00:38:45,799
Speaker 1: the Tampa Bay Rays World Series future. I think it's

822
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 1: insane this team. First of all, we saw them make

823
00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:50,680
Speaker 1: the World Series last year.

824
00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:51,000
Speaker 2: BJA.

825
00:38:51,040 --> 00:38:52,960
Speaker 1: You talked about the rotation concerned if they don't have

826
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:56,040
Speaker 1: Tyler's last now anymore. This is still a team that

827
00:38:56,080 --> 00:38:58,759
Speaker 1: won one hundred games and ran away with a division

828
00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:02,239
Speaker 1: that had four teams win ninety one or more games.

829
00:39:02,280 --> 00:39:04,400
Speaker 1: There's never been a division like that in the history

830
00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:08,120
Speaker 1: of baseball. Kevin Cash or the Ray's front office probably

831
00:39:08,160 --> 00:39:11,040
Speaker 1: more than likely pulls all the right strings. They have

832
00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:14,080
Speaker 1: a deep pitching staff. They're gonna throw openers out there,

833
00:39:14,120 --> 00:39:16,600
Speaker 1: out at you. They're gonna do everything in their power.

834
00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:19,120
Speaker 1: And we're looking at them at plus six fifty plus

835
00:39:19,120 --> 00:39:22,200
Speaker 1: seven fifty. For the Giants to be ahead of them,

836
00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:24,680
Speaker 1: for the Astros to be that far ahead of them,

837
00:39:24,920 --> 00:39:26,200
Speaker 1: to me, it's just absurd.

838
00:39:26,640 --> 00:39:28,080
Speaker 2: Give me Rays.

839
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:30,759
Speaker 1: Plus six fifty to plus seven to fifty range all day,

840
00:39:31,080 --> 00:39:32,920
Speaker 1: bj am, I crazy.

841
00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:33,960
Speaker 2: No, not at all.

842
00:39:34,200 --> 00:39:36,400
Speaker 4: I mean, since the trade deadline, the Rays have the

843
00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:38,799
Speaker 4: best way runs created plus in Major League Baseball. Their

844
00:39:38,840 --> 00:39:42,160
Speaker 4: offense is unbelievable. What really what the Rays struggled with

845
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:44,240
Speaker 4: early on in the season, they couldn't really have breaking pitches.

846
00:39:44,600 --> 00:39:47,920
Speaker 4: Since the trade deadline, I mean, they are incredible against

847
00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:52,239
Speaker 4: both fastballs and sliders. You know, plus plus eight point

848
00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:55,239
Speaker 4: four run voaluy against fastballs, plus three point six run

849
00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:57,600
Speaker 4: value against sliders, which is a big up tick from

850
00:39:57,600 --> 00:39:59,720
Speaker 4: where they were in the first part of the season. Obviously,

851
00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:01,920
Speaker 4: those you know, the guys in the rotation do concern me.

852
00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:05,680
Speaker 4: But their bullpen, I mean it's incredible. You know, they're

853
00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:07,600
Speaker 4: probably going to ride it throughout most of the season.

854
00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:10,680
Speaker 4: You know, top five in both ERA and X fifth,

855
00:40:10,719 --> 00:40:12,799
Speaker 4: you know, second best walk per nine rate, fourth best

856
00:40:12,880 --> 00:40:14,200
Speaker 4: left on base percentage.

857
00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:15,440
Speaker 2: It's a really good bullpen.

858
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:18,319
Speaker 4: The question marks now are just how do they manage it.

859
00:40:18,680 --> 00:40:20,440
Speaker 4: Can they get to a point where they can get

860
00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:23,360
Speaker 4: some of these starters to go five six innings and

861
00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:26,399
Speaker 4: give them a chance to rest their bullpen a little bit?

862
00:40:26,960 --> 00:40:29,280
Speaker 4: Or is this situation where their starters have an incredibly

863
00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:32,120
Speaker 4: short leash and any sign of danger they're just turning

864
00:40:32,120 --> 00:40:35,600
Speaker 4: it over to the bullpen immediately. So those are the

865
00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:37,960
Speaker 4: question marks surrounding the Rays. But it's a team that

866
00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:40,120
Speaker 4: really doesn't have a lot of weaknesses outside of their

867
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:42,960
Speaker 4: starting rotation. So yeah, I honestly do think there is

868
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:44,440
Speaker 4: value at plus six fifty.

869
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:47,400
Speaker 1: There is value, But is that your value play?

870
00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:48,239
Speaker 2: No?

871
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:51,200
Speaker 4: I like, I mean I already mentioned I like the

872
00:40:51,239 --> 00:40:54,319
Speaker 4: Redstocks at fourteen to one. I just think that they

873
00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:55,960
Speaker 4: have a good matchup against the Rays. If they can

874
00:40:56,000 --> 00:40:57,640
Speaker 4: get past the al wild Card and then you can

875
00:40:57,640 --> 00:40:59,719
Speaker 4: get to the ALCS, you have a chance, a good chance

876
00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:02,759
Speaker 4: to have against the white Sox of the Astros. You know,

877
00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:05,320
Speaker 4: I've already mentioned it. Their offense is incredible. It's basically,

878
00:41:05,880 --> 00:41:08,359
Speaker 4: you know, the bullpen was good over the first half

879
00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:10,120
Speaker 4: of the season and then it just completely fell off

880
00:41:10,160 --> 00:41:11,840
Speaker 4: in the second half. So if they can find some

881
00:41:11,920 --> 00:41:14,520
Speaker 4: of that, if Matt Barnes and Ottavino can get back

882
00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:16,440
Speaker 4: to their form over the first half of the season,

883
00:41:16,880 --> 00:41:19,000
Speaker 4: the Red Sox do have a chance. With three starters

884
00:41:19,040 --> 00:41:23,280
Speaker 4: and their lineup. The question there are you know, obviously

885
00:41:23,960 --> 00:41:27,840
Speaker 4: advantages for all the other teams, But that's my value

886
00:41:27,840 --> 00:41:29,439
Speaker 4: play is the Red Sox at fourteen to one.

887
00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:32,640
Speaker 1: One of my favorite things to do to kind of

888
00:41:32,680 --> 00:41:36,960
Speaker 1: expand upon World Series futures is play World Series matchups

889
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:39,920
Speaker 1: where you can find even better odds, which is also

890
00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:41,240
Speaker 1: very tough.

891
00:41:41,000 --> 00:41:42,400
Speaker 2: To hit for good reasons.

892
00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:47,240
Speaker 1: So I'm jumping on my raised love with a raised

893
00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 1: Brewers matchup at plus sixteen hundred and a raised Brave

894
00:41:51,280 --> 00:41:53,680
Speaker 1: matchup at plus twenty two hundred, which you know Major

895
00:41:53,760 --> 00:41:57,080
Speaker 1: League Baseball will just love those two markets in the

896
00:41:57,080 --> 00:42:02,439
Speaker 1: World Series. Really, you teased a little bit some White

897
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:05,400
Speaker 1: Sox love. Is that where you're going with your with

898
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:06,560
Speaker 1: your World Series future?

899
00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:09,680
Speaker 2: I just want to add more love onto your race thing.

900
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:12,200
Speaker 3: So I have them projected a plus six seventy five,

901
00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:14,080
Speaker 3: So I don't love that plus six fifty, but if

902
00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:16,480
Speaker 3: you could get plus seven hundred plus seven fifty, I

903
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:20,080
Speaker 3: would absolutely add a future on the race. They'll recommended

904
00:42:20,120 --> 00:42:22,680
Speaker 3: the midseason because I saw what they were doing. They

905
00:42:22,680 --> 00:42:25,600
Speaker 3: were bringing kids along slowly while they were letting all

906
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:29,359
Speaker 3: the veterans just grind out playing time. Added Nelson Cruise

907
00:42:29,440 --> 00:42:31,600
Speaker 3: Jordan Lupo at the plate trade deadline, so they can

908
00:42:31,680 --> 00:42:34,759
Speaker 3: hit lefties really well. Now I love everything about this

909
00:42:34,840 --> 00:42:37,480
Speaker 3: Race team. This is probably the best iteration of the

910
00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:40,640
Speaker 3: Rays we've seen, which sounds strange given the names that

911
00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:42,880
Speaker 3: they have in that rotation. But we've seen what Kevin

912
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:45,680
Speaker 3: Cash does in the playoffs. He uses the bullpen like

913
00:42:45,719 --> 00:42:48,680
Speaker 3: a hydra. It's a different arm angle every inning, never

914
00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:50,160
Speaker 3: giving the hitters the same looks.

915
00:42:50,200 --> 00:42:51,400
Speaker 2: I don't care about the metrics.

916
00:42:51,400 --> 00:42:54,479
Speaker 3: When you're doing what they're doing, they're going to create

917
00:42:54,520 --> 00:42:56,680
Speaker 3: different looks and things you're not used to with the plate.

918
00:42:57,239 --> 00:42:59,520
Speaker 3: It's more than just looking at stats. The Rays seem

919
00:42:59,600 --> 00:43:03,640
Speaker 3: to defy expectations every year. We've failed to properly account

920
00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:05,440
Speaker 3: for it, and at some point we're going to learn.

921
00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:07,880
Speaker 3: So if this team doesn't win a World Series in

922
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:09,520
Speaker 3: the next three to five years. I'm going to be

923
00:43:09,560 --> 00:43:13,040
Speaker 3: absolutely shocked. And I think they're just now only starting

924
00:43:13,080 --> 00:43:15,719
Speaker 3: to hit the peak of whatever. This rain is going

925
00:43:15,800 --> 00:43:17,719
Speaker 3: to be so all over the Rays.

926
00:43:17,800 --> 00:43:18,520
Speaker 2: Absolutely.

927
00:43:19,440 --> 00:43:21,600
Speaker 3: I talked about the three teams that I think offer

928
00:43:21,640 --> 00:43:23,759
Speaker 3: Pennant value. They're the same teams I would project a

929
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:27,560
Speaker 3: World Series value, the Brewers, the White Sox, the Braves.

930
00:43:27,840 --> 00:43:30,480
Speaker 2: You can mix them up in some sort of matchup props.

931
00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:31,240
Speaker 2: As you mentioned.

932
00:43:31,320 --> 00:43:34,000
Speaker 3: I believe I played the White Sox and the Brewers

933
00:43:34,000 --> 00:43:36,680
Speaker 3: at seventeen to one, the White Sox with the Braves

934
00:43:36,719 --> 00:43:39,880
Speaker 3: closer to twenty seven to one. I'll probably throw some

935
00:43:40,040 --> 00:43:43,279
Speaker 3: Rays and Brewers together as well. But yeah, those are

936
00:43:43,280 --> 00:43:45,680
Speaker 3: the teams I'm looking at from a World Series perspective

937
00:43:45,760 --> 00:43:46,040
Speaker 3: right now.

938
00:43:46,239 --> 00:43:46,879
Speaker 2: Just remember I.

939
00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:49,239
Speaker 3: Mentioned with the NL teams, probably going to see those

940
00:43:49,239 --> 00:43:51,319
Speaker 3: odds adjut a little bit though, if the Dodgers do

941
00:43:51,400 --> 00:43:52,480
Speaker 3: win well card matchup.

942
00:43:52,640 --> 00:43:52,920
Speaker 2: Yeah.

943
00:43:54,000 --> 00:43:56,360
Speaker 1: The thing about the playoffs that I love so much is,

944
00:43:57,200 --> 00:43:59,760
Speaker 1: you know, we have we've been talking about the Rays

945
00:44:00,040 --> 00:44:04,240
Speaker 1: at Randy Rose Arena last year. Randy Rose Arena blew

946
00:44:04,320 --> 00:44:07,319
Speaker 1: up in the twenty twenty postseason, and he's probably gonna

947
00:44:07,360 --> 00:44:10,440
Speaker 1: win the Al Rookie of the Year this year, But

948
00:44:10,480 --> 00:44:12,520
Speaker 1: the only reason he's probably gonna win AL Rookie of

949
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:14,680
Speaker 1: the Year is because Wander Franco came up so late,

950
00:44:15,400 --> 00:44:17,960
Speaker 1: because he's just been absolutely phenomenal. The Raids have the

951
00:44:17,960 --> 00:44:22,640
Speaker 1: best farm system in baseball by a mile, and like

952
00:44:22,680 --> 00:44:24,759
Speaker 1: you mentioned, they're only starting to call these guys up.

953
00:44:24,800 --> 00:44:26,799
Speaker 1: We've got Franco this year, we got bas at the

954
00:44:26,960 --> 00:44:30,960
Speaker 1: very end of this year, a little ran Yeah, they've

955
00:44:31,120 --> 00:44:34,320
Speaker 1: I mean the guys, there's there's guys ranked like fifteenth

956
00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:36,560
Speaker 1: in their system who would be number one, and probably

957
00:44:36,600 --> 00:44:39,880
Speaker 1: five or ten other systems across baseball. Is there I

958
00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:41,960
Speaker 1: mentioned a Rose Arena Bokus, I'm gonna throw something at you,

959
00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 1: guys that wasn't necessarily on the agenda. Is there's someone

960
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:47,280
Speaker 1: on one of these teams and under the radar guy

961
00:44:47,800 --> 00:44:51,280
Speaker 1: who could blow up and have in a Rose Arena

962
00:44:51,480 --> 00:44:56,000
Speaker 1: esque impact on their team's pennant run.

963
00:44:56,480 --> 00:44:58,560
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, I'm gonna say, Shane Bozz, I'm

964
00:44:58,600 --> 00:45:02,000
Speaker 3: so high on this kid, Colin. I like, it wouldn't

965
00:45:02,040 --> 00:45:03,920
Speaker 3: be appropriate for them to start him in Game one

966
00:45:03,960 --> 00:45:07,000
Speaker 3: of a playoff series. But I've watched pretty much all

967
00:45:07,000 --> 00:45:09,400
Speaker 3: of the Rays Games this year and he's their best pitcher.

968
00:45:09,560 --> 00:45:12,080
Speaker 3: I'm happy to say it, he's their best pitcher. It's

969
00:45:12,360 --> 00:45:14,680
Speaker 3: a lot like get this combination of stuff in command

970
00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:15,440
Speaker 3: at his age.

971
00:45:16,360 --> 00:45:17,879
Speaker 2: I've made the copy for that.

972
00:45:17,920 --> 00:45:20,400
Speaker 3: The physicals aren't the same because he's a little smaller.

973
00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:22,400
Speaker 3: But it's like when Mark Pryor first came up for

974
00:45:22,440 --> 00:45:24,520
Speaker 3: the Cups, he just you knew he was going to

975
00:45:24,600 --> 00:45:26,719
Speaker 3: contend for a cy Young, Like within a year of

976
00:45:26,760 --> 00:45:27,239
Speaker 3: coming up.

977
00:45:27,520 --> 00:45:29,520
Speaker 1: It could be, it could be. Not this similar to

978
00:45:29,680 --> 00:45:31,759
Speaker 1: what the Rays did in two thousand and eight when

979
00:45:31,800 --> 00:45:33,440
Speaker 1: when David Price came up at the end of the

980
00:45:33,520 --> 00:45:35,799
Speaker 1: year and I believe he even got the final out

981
00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:40,080
Speaker 1: in the ALCS that year as a rookie went on

982
00:45:40,120 --> 00:45:44,240
Speaker 1: to be a cy Young winner BJ breakout star. Anyone,

983
00:45:44,320 --> 00:45:45,320
Speaker 1: anyone come to mind.

984
00:45:46,239 --> 00:45:47,880
Speaker 2: I mean, like off the top of my head.

985
00:45:47,960 --> 00:45:49,960
Speaker 4: I mean he's a guy who's been around for a while,

986
00:45:49,960 --> 00:45:53,200
Speaker 4: but Hunter Renfro's been on fire for the Red Sox.

987
00:45:53,239 --> 00:45:55,840
Speaker 4: I mean, he is hitting bombs left and right, and

988
00:45:55,880 --> 00:45:58,239
Speaker 4: he's one of those guys outside of their main core

989
00:45:58,280 --> 00:45:58,799
Speaker 4: in their line up.

990
00:45:58,880 --> 00:46:00,760
Speaker 2: He'll be near the bottom that.

991
00:46:00,719 --> 00:46:02,920
Speaker 4: I think could get hot and could become you know,

992
00:46:03,120 --> 00:46:05,719
Speaker 4: like a Boston folk tale. Really, I mean he's got

993
00:46:05,760 --> 00:46:07,960
Speaker 4: a three forty four weighted on bass average for the season.

994
00:46:08,160 --> 00:46:10,839
Speaker 4: He's incredibly strong too. I mean, the guy just has

995
00:46:10,960 --> 00:46:13,879
Speaker 4: huge arms. But you know, he's obviously a guy who's

996
00:46:13,880 --> 00:46:15,400
Speaker 4: been around for a while. For a while, you know,

997
00:46:15,400 --> 00:46:18,440
Speaker 4: obviously played for the Tampa Bay Rays. One more thing

998
00:46:18,480 --> 00:46:20,400
Speaker 4: I want to mention the Rays. You know, they obviously

999
00:46:20,400 --> 00:46:22,480
Speaker 4: shipped off Diego Castillo in the middle of the season,

1000
00:46:22,600 --> 00:46:24,920
Speaker 4: but you know the reason their bullpen's been so good

1001
00:46:24,960 --> 00:46:27,520
Speaker 4: is Andrew Kidtrich has been unbelievable back end.

1002
00:46:27,560 --> 00:46:29,439
Speaker 2: He was out the entire year last year.

1003
00:46:29,520 --> 00:46:32,879
Speaker 4: So really, it's really funny because the Rays, what people

1004
00:46:32,920 --> 00:46:34,960
Speaker 4: thought gave away maybe their best reliever and they just

1005
00:46:35,600 --> 00:46:38,719
Speaker 4: filter in new guys. I mean, it is It is

1006
00:46:38,800 --> 00:46:41,040
Speaker 4: crazy how the Rays can just take guys off the

1007
00:46:41,040 --> 00:46:44,440
Speaker 4: scrap heap and just turn them into incredible believers. I mean,

1008
00:46:44,760 --> 00:46:47,000
Speaker 4: Jeffrey Springs is a good reliever this year.

1009
00:46:47,040 --> 00:46:50,360
Speaker 1: I mean, he was horrible for Dangers for so long,

1010
00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:52,799
Speaker 1: but it's incredible.

1011
00:46:53,160 --> 00:46:53,960
Speaker 2: It's incredible.

1012
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:57,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, Renfro could be Red and Fro could be Boston's

1013
00:46:57,600 --> 00:46:59,320
Speaker 1: Steve Pierce of twenty exactly.

1014
00:46:59,520 --> 00:47:03,320
Speaker 2: Yes, can we show some love to Lamont Way Junior

1015
00:47:03,360 --> 00:47:03,800
Speaker 2: as well.

1016
00:47:03,880 --> 00:47:06,279
Speaker 3: I mean, I feel like every time I see this

1017
00:47:06,360 --> 00:47:08,720
Speaker 3: guy and it kind of just goes with the Giants

1018
00:47:08,760 --> 00:47:09,320
Speaker 3: whole aura.

1019
00:47:09,960 --> 00:47:11,560
Speaker 2: I feel like I'm tuning into some.

1020
00:47:11,520 --> 00:47:14,920
Speaker 3: Like ranking mid major basketball program and this is like

1021
00:47:14,960 --> 00:47:18,480
Speaker 3: THEIRS star shooting guard. He has the name that makes

1022
00:47:18,520 --> 00:47:20,280
Speaker 3: him sound like a college basketball player.

1023
00:47:20,360 --> 00:47:21,160
Speaker 2: He just kind of has those.

1024
00:47:21,239 --> 00:47:23,360
Speaker 3: But we have all the mainstays from the Giants, the

1025
00:47:23,400 --> 00:47:27,439
Speaker 3: posey obviously belter of Brandon Crawford, you know, the guys

1026
00:47:27,440 --> 00:47:30,400
Speaker 3: who've been around, but Wlamont Way Junior is just a

1027
00:47:30,440 --> 00:47:32,439
Speaker 3: new dimension and he just seems to come up big

1028
00:47:32,520 --> 00:47:33,919
Speaker 3: every time I'm watching him on DV.

1029
00:47:34,560 --> 00:47:39,360
Speaker 1: Stolen from the Minnesota Twins, just completely heisted. Last February,

1030
00:47:39,440 --> 00:47:43,279
Speaker 1: Sean Anderson went to Minnesota for Lamontway Junior. It's incredible.

1031
00:47:43,560 --> 00:47:45,680
Speaker 1: I'm gonna give you guys my name because the whole

1032
00:47:45,719 --> 00:47:48,000
Speaker 1: reason I asked the rosegree in to question is because

1033
00:47:48,080 --> 00:47:51,880
Speaker 1: I had a name, and it's Gavin Sheets. It's just

1034
00:47:51,920 --> 00:47:55,000
Speaker 1: been hitting bombs for the White Sox since coming up.

1035
00:47:55,040 --> 00:48:01,160
Speaker 1: He gives them a rare left handed bat who can

1036
00:48:01,239 --> 00:48:04,960
Speaker 1: hit righty's, which has been sorely missed some son of

1037
00:48:05,120 --> 00:48:08,000
Speaker 1: X Major leaguer Larry Sheets. Gavin Sheets goes on a

1038
00:48:08,040 --> 00:48:11,920
Speaker 1: Randy Rosarna esque stretch. We see him on the Fox

1039
00:48:12,080 --> 00:48:14,440
Speaker 1: Studio show before Game one of the World Series. It's

1040
00:48:14,440 --> 00:48:18,200
Speaker 1: all coming together now, I love it. But we've got

1041
00:48:18,239 --> 00:48:21,920
Speaker 1: our best bets lined up. Zarrillo's all over the White Sox,

1042
00:48:21,960 --> 00:48:25,839
Speaker 1: the Brewers, the Braves. BJ is all over the Red

1043
00:48:25,880 --> 00:48:30,759
Speaker 1: Sox and Braves. Correct. Yes, we've got two great wild

1044
00:48:30,840 --> 00:48:33,080
Speaker 1: card games to start us off. We'll see the odds

1045
00:48:33,120 --> 00:48:36,560
Speaker 1: move then, but that'll do it for today's episode of

1046
00:48:36,600 --> 00:48:39,880
Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast. Be on the lookout tomorrow for

1047
00:48:39,920 --> 00:48:43,719
Speaker 1: a very special NHL season betting preview episode, along with

1048
00:48:43,760 --> 00:48:46,879
Speaker 1: our usual NFL Week six episode featuring Stucky and Chris

1049
00:48:46,960 --> 00:48:50,680
Speaker 1: Raybon and strong Side Friday NFL episode with Raheem Palmer

1050
00:48:50,760 --> 00:48:54,200
Speaker 1: and Brandon Anderson on behalf of b. J Cunningham and

1051
00:48:54,280 --> 00:48:56,880
Speaker 1: Sean Zarrillo enjoy the MLB playoffs. Everyone,