1 00:00:15,410 --> 00:00:27,810 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Hello everyone, Tim Harfford here it is our listener 2 00:00:28,050 --> 00:00:30,770 Speaker 1: Q and a episode our very first Listener Q and 3 00:00:30,850 --> 00:00:33,730 Speaker 1: a episode of caution the Tales. You have been sending 4 00:00:33,770 --> 00:00:37,210 Speaker 1: in your questions to Tales at Pushkin dot Fm. Thank 5 00:00:37,210 --> 00:00:39,170 Speaker 1: you very much. I have been thinking about how to 6 00:00:39,210 --> 00:00:41,290 Speaker 1: answer them, but I'm not going to just read out 7 00:00:41,370 --> 00:00:45,050 Speaker 1: the emails. No, I need one of the maestros of podcasting. 8 00:00:45,250 --> 00:00:48,410 Speaker 1: I need Jacob Goldstein to help me. Jacob, welcome to 9 00:00:48,450 --> 00:00:51,250 Speaker 1: Cause Need Sales. Hi, Tim, thanks for having me on. 10 00:00:51,690 --> 00:00:54,290 Speaker 2: I'm here to read emails, and I also have a 11 00:00:54,290 --> 00:00:56,010 Speaker 2: few of my own questions for you that I'm gonna 12 00:00:56,010 --> 00:00:56,610 Speaker 2: sprinkle into the mat. 13 00:00:56,690 --> 00:00:58,330 Speaker 1: Oh. I'm looking forward to that. So, Jacob, do you 14 00:00:58,370 --> 00:01:00,890 Speaker 1: want to just tell people who you are for the 15 00:01:01,650 --> 00:01:04,690 Speaker 1: nighted souls who don't already know of your work? 16 00:01:05,410 --> 00:01:08,290 Speaker 2: Yes, So, like you, I host a podcast for Pushkin, 17 00:01:08,490 --> 00:01:10,850 Speaker 2: the show that I hope it's called What's Your Problem. 18 00:01:11,130 --> 00:01:14,290 Speaker 2: It's it's great, not exactly the opposite of Cautionary Tales, 19 00:01:14,290 --> 00:01:15,450 Speaker 2: but it's an interesting compliment. 20 00:01:15,530 --> 00:01:15,690 Speaker 1: Right. 21 00:01:15,770 --> 00:01:17,810 Speaker 2: Your show is basically about things going wrong. What's Your 22 00:01:17,810 --> 00:01:21,370 Speaker 2: Problem is basically about people figuring out how to solve 23 00:01:21,530 --> 00:01:23,770 Speaker 2: technological problems. I talk to the people who are right 24 00:01:23,810 --> 00:01:27,330 Speaker 2: now trying to solve big, interesting technological problems, to solve 25 00:01:27,370 --> 00:01:29,970 Speaker 2: things like you know, getting away from carbon. I used 26 00:01:30,010 --> 00:01:32,090 Speaker 2: to hose planet money. I wrote a book called Money, 27 00:01:32,130 --> 00:01:33,610 Speaker 2: the True Story of made Up Thing. And I've been 28 00:01:33,650 --> 00:01:36,250 Speaker 2: interviewing you for more than ten years, so I'm really 29 00:01:36,250 --> 00:01:39,050 Speaker 2: delighted to be interviewing you again. Let me just give 30 00:01:39,050 --> 00:01:40,970 Speaker 2: you a question. Yeah, I'm gonna let you say anything else. 31 00:01:41,050 --> 00:01:43,450 Speaker 2: Let's just let's just get to it. This one comes 32 00:01:43,450 --> 00:01:46,410 Speaker 2: from Peter Massey. He sent a bunch of questions. We're 33 00:01:46,450 --> 00:01:49,570 Speaker 2: going to start with this one. Tim, if you stood 34 00:01:49,570 --> 00:01:53,330 Speaker 2: for Parliament, you'd be voted in like a shot. Par 35 00:01:53,370 --> 00:01:55,170 Speaker 2: It's more of a comment than a question, but it's nice. 36 00:01:55,210 --> 00:01:57,410 Speaker 1: I mean, I could object to the premise, but go on. 37 00:01:57,770 --> 00:02:00,130 Speaker 2: Well, he does say you'd be voted in like a shot, 38 00:02:00,170 --> 00:02:03,890 Speaker 2: but I expect you'd have more sense. However, here's the question, 39 00:02:04,490 --> 00:02:07,330 Speaker 2: what is your sage advice for a party leader of 40 00:02:07,410 --> 00:02:10,770 Speaker 2: any persuasion or country who believes that the truth is 41 00:02:10,810 --> 00:02:15,370 Speaker 2: important and that evidence and data based on argument is valuable. 42 00:02:16,890 --> 00:02:21,130 Speaker 1: It's a really difficult question, and I'm completely unqualified to 43 00:02:21,170 --> 00:02:23,770 Speaker 1: offer any political advice, and maybe I could offer some 44 00:02:23,770 --> 00:02:30,330 Speaker 1: slightly nerdy policy advice. Politicians are directly or indirectly in 45 00:02:30,490 --> 00:02:35,330 Speaker 1: charge of the statistical infrastructure of countries. We only think 46 00:02:35,370 --> 00:02:39,370 Speaker 1: of statistics or data as being infrastructure in the way 47 00:02:39,370 --> 00:02:42,330 Speaker 1: that you know our roads are, or the electricity grid is, 48 00:02:42,970 --> 00:02:45,770 Speaker 1: or the water, but they really are. You want to 49 00:02:45,810 --> 00:02:50,850 Speaker 1: know what's going on in the world, you need good statistics, 50 00:02:51,450 --> 00:02:53,930 Speaker 1: and we kind of, I think even those of us 51 00:02:53,970 --> 00:02:56,330 Speaker 1: who are a bit nerdy, kind of have this mental 52 00:02:56,370 --> 00:02:59,290 Speaker 1: model that statistics are just out there, you kind of 53 00:02:59,290 --> 00:03:03,170 Speaker 1: download them from a spreadsheet somewhere. And the problem comes 54 00:03:03,210 --> 00:03:07,810 Speaker 1: because people lie with statistics, or they misrepresent statistics, or 55 00:03:07,810 --> 00:03:11,490 Speaker 1: they don't listen to statistic Of course those things are problems, 56 00:03:11,970 --> 00:03:16,930 Speaker 1: but the deeper issue is that the statistics don't make themselves. 57 00:03:17,130 --> 00:03:19,610 Speaker 1: They've got to be gathered, they've got to be assembled, 58 00:03:19,930 --> 00:03:23,490 Speaker 1: and we don't pay nearly enough attention to that. And 59 00:03:23,810 --> 00:03:27,890 Speaker 1: I would like to see politicians really supporting and valuing 60 00:03:28,650 --> 00:03:32,570 Speaker 1: the process of deciding what gets counted, what gets measured, 61 00:03:32,930 --> 00:03:34,850 Speaker 1: because without that you really have nothing. 62 00:03:34,970 --> 00:03:37,210 Speaker 2: Those numbers don't just exist in the world like people 63 00:03:37,570 --> 00:03:38,370 Speaker 2: work to get them. 64 00:03:38,490 --> 00:03:41,730 Speaker 1: Yeah, and they can be gathered in smart ways or 65 00:03:41,810 --> 00:03:45,650 Speaker 1: less smart ways. So one really striking example from about 66 00:03:46,290 --> 00:03:50,010 Speaker 1: fifteen twenty years ago in the UK is we used 67 00:03:50,050 --> 00:03:53,570 Speaker 1: to measure immigration by having people stand at airports and 68 00:03:53,650 --> 00:03:56,570 Speaker 1: just politely stop people as they pass through the airports 69 00:03:56,610 --> 00:03:59,610 Speaker 1: and say, hey, would you mind answering a few questions? 70 00:03:59,610 --> 00:04:01,850 Speaker 1: And the questions are mostly about tourism, like how much 71 00:04:01,850 --> 00:04:03,850 Speaker 1: did you pay for your ticket, but a few of 72 00:04:03,890 --> 00:04:06,650 Speaker 1: them are relevant to migration, like how long are you 73 00:04:06,690 --> 00:04:09,890 Speaker 1: planning to stay in the country. And that was how 74 00:04:09,930 --> 00:04:13,410 Speaker 1: we measured immigration, from just randomly sampling people coming through 75 00:04:13,490 --> 00:04:16,930 Speaker 1: Heathrow Airport. We had this huge problem in about two 76 00:04:16,930 --> 00:04:18,850 Speaker 1: thousand and five two thousand and six. We hadn't know 77 00:04:18,930 --> 00:04:21,850 Speaker 1: it at the time, but just at the moment that 78 00:04:22,010 --> 00:04:25,090 Speaker 1: more and more people were coming from Eastern Europe because 79 00:04:25,930 --> 00:04:27,850 Speaker 1: they joined the European Union, they had the right to 80 00:04:27,850 --> 00:04:31,370 Speaker 1: come to the UK. Just at that moment, some Hungarian 81 00:04:31,490 --> 00:04:35,490 Speaker 1: entrepreneurs set up a cheap airline called wiz Air, which 82 00:04:35,530 --> 00:04:39,970 Speaker 1: flew people no frills, not to Heathrow Airport or any 83 00:04:39,970 --> 00:04:42,170 Speaker 1: of the major airports, but they threw them to all 84 00:04:42,210 --> 00:04:46,290 Speaker 1: these tiny, little regional airports like luten We just weren't 85 00:04:46,290 --> 00:04:48,690 Speaker 1: counting the people coming in from Luten. Oh, we had 86 00:04:48,690 --> 00:04:52,130 Speaker 1: this way of measuring migration. It kind of worked, and 87 00:04:52,170 --> 00:04:55,010 Speaker 1: then the world changed a bit, and then our migration 88 00:04:55,170 --> 00:04:59,130 Speaker 1: statistics were completely off. And when it was finally discovered 89 00:04:59,170 --> 00:05:01,290 Speaker 1: that the statistics were off, that it was these huge 90 00:05:01,330 --> 00:05:05,490 Speaker 1: political ramifications, the shock of suddenly realizing, oh, there's like 91 00:05:06,050 --> 00:05:08,490 Speaker 1: hundreds of thousands of people in the country and we 92 00:05:08,530 --> 00:05:11,170 Speaker 1: never even knew they in the country because we weren't 93 00:05:11,210 --> 00:05:13,490 Speaker 1: counting them properly. So it's just one example, but this 94 00:05:13,530 --> 00:05:16,050 Speaker 1: stuff matters. There's a cautionary tale in this somewhere. I 95 00:05:16,090 --> 00:05:18,130 Speaker 1: need to have a think about this and start working 96 00:05:18,130 --> 00:05:18,450 Speaker 1: on it. 97 00:05:18,650 --> 00:05:22,330 Speaker 2: Funny, you should mention that there is another question from 98 00:05:22,570 --> 00:05:27,890 Speaker 2: one Jonathan Hiller, and he writes, in part, my main 99 00:05:27,970 --> 00:05:31,690 Speaker 2: question is about how you sift through historical incidents to 100 00:05:31,810 --> 00:05:37,250 Speaker 2: evaluate which ones fit your criteria for cautionary tales. What 101 00:05:37,450 --> 00:05:41,210 Speaker 2: vectors inform you as you sift through humanity's foibles? Also, 102 00:05:41,370 --> 00:05:44,970 Speaker 2: do the failings of individual protagonists make for better tales 103 00:05:45,090 --> 00:05:47,570 Speaker 2: than those of institutions? And there were a lot of 104 00:05:47,650 --> 00:05:49,850 Speaker 2: questions like this. There were a lot of the how 105 00:05:49,850 --> 00:05:51,450 Speaker 2: do you make the sausage type questions. 106 00:05:51,450 --> 00:05:54,890 Speaker 1: Well, thanks everyone for sending in the questions. Jonathan has 107 00:05:54,930 --> 00:05:58,250 Speaker 1: made it sound way more scientific and systematic than it is. 108 00:05:58,850 --> 00:06:01,810 Speaker 1: Actually the process that you just heard of me kind 109 00:06:01,850 --> 00:06:03,890 Speaker 1: of telling a story and going hang on a minute, 110 00:06:03,890 --> 00:06:07,650 Speaker 1: that'd be a good cautionary tale. That's actually much more 111 00:06:08,090 --> 00:06:10,970 Speaker 1: true to the life of this podcast. You know, I 112 00:06:11,010 --> 00:06:13,170 Speaker 1: read stuff. I'm a journalist, I write stuff, I listen 113 00:06:13,170 --> 00:06:16,410 Speaker 1: to other podcasts I come across ideas. Obviously, I have 114 00:06:16,530 --> 00:06:20,090 Speaker 1: my eyes open for things going wrong. I mean I 115 00:06:20,130 --> 00:06:22,610 Speaker 1: have collections of books about things going wrong, Like people 116 00:06:22,610 --> 00:06:25,770 Speaker 1: write books specifically, like here are one hundred terrible things 117 00:06:25,770 --> 00:06:27,250 Speaker 1: that happened and you've kind of read these. Here are 118 00:06:27,250 --> 00:06:29,810 Speaker 1: one hundred military mistakes. Here's a book about frauds. Here's 119 00:06:29,810 --> 00:06:32,770 Speaker 1: a book about business failures. So I have all these 120 00:06:32,850 --> 00:06:37,530 Speaker 1: different sources, and the main thing I'm looking for is variety. Actually, 121 00:06:37,850 --> 00:06:43,370 Speaker 1: it's very easy to get stuck on economic disasters, booms 122 00:06:43,370 --> 00:06:46,650 Speaker 1: and busts and crashes and business failures, or only stories 123 00:06:46,650 --> 00:06:49,690 Speaker 1: involving men, because I'm a guy and history has been 124 00:06:49,690 --> 00:06:52,050 Speaker 1: written by the white guys. So can we have some 125 00:06:52,090 --> 00:06:56,530 Speaker 1: more diverse stories about different parts of the world. That's 126 00:06:56,570 --> 00:06:59,410 Speaker 1: really what I'm looking for. Because I am a nerd, 127 00:06:59,930 --> 00:07:05,250 Speaker 1: I keep finding myself writing scripts about something more systemic, 128 00:07:06,050 --> 00:07:09,410 Speaker 1: some more abstract point. It trains as an economist, you know, 129 00:07:09,450 --> 00:07:11,770 Speaker 1: what can you do? And then I find myself trying 130 00:07:11,810 --> 00:07:14,330 Speaker 1: to look around for some protagonists to put into the 131 00:07:14,330 --> 00:07:17,370 Speaker 1: story to make the story more relatable and easier to follow. 132 00:07:17,450 --> 00:07:22,930 Speaker 1: But individual failures, individual errors make for better stories every time. 133 00:07:23,330 --> 00:07:25,450 Speaker 2: I mean, the basic model of the show is there's 134 00:07:25,490 --> 00:07:27,610 Speaker 2: a story and there's a lesson, right, and it seems 135 00:07:27,650 --> 00:07:31,010 Speaker 2: like the individual helps you with the story. But often 136 00:07:31,090 --> 00:07:34,330 Speaker 2: the lesson, to me, the most interesting lessons in the 137 00:07:34,330 --> 00:07:38,570 Speaker 2: show are often the ones about institutions, about systems, because 138 00:07:38,650 --> 00:07:42,290 Speaker 2: you know, people are sort of irredeemably flawed, but we 139 00:07:42,410 --> 00:07:45,050 Speaker 2: hope that we can create systems and institutions to sort 140 00:07:45,050 --> 00:07:46,930 Speaker 2: of put a floor under that. Right. That seems like 141 00:07:47,410 --> 00:07:49,330 Speaker 2: one of the recurring themes on the show. 142 00:07:50,330 --> 00:07:54,250 Speaker 1: Absolutely it is. Some of these stories have basically three lessons, 143 00:07:54,250 --> 00:07:57,290 Speaker 1: four lessons. They're really tightly woven. There's a lot of 144 00:07:57,290 --> 00:08:00,410 Speaker 1: different stuff going on, and sometimes there isn't really a lesson. 145 00:08:00,450 --> 00:08:03,530 Speaker 1: Sometimes it's just hey, this thing happened. It's really sad, 146 00:08:03,570 --> 00:08:05,730 Speaker 1: but it's a really compelling story. Let me tell you 147 00:08:05,770 --> 00:08:08,850 Speaker 1: the story. So I think it's okay to sometimes not 148 00:08:08,890 --> 00:08:12,010 Speaker 1: how lesson than to sometimes have several, But you're right, Yeah, 149 00:08:12,050 --> 00:08:14,970 Speaker 1: Usually I'm trying to draw out the lesson and systemic 150 00:08:15,050 --> 00:08:20,290 Speaker 1: failures have the more easily analyzable lessons, I think than 151 00:08:21,330 --> 00:08:22,970 Speaker 1: a person did a bad thing or a person did 152 00:08:22,970 --> 00:08:23,570 Speaker 1: a stupid thing. 153 00:08:24,570 --> 00:08:27,850 Speaker 2: So that reminds me of one of the episodes of 154 00:08:27,890 --> 00:08:30,010 Speaker 2: your show that I wanted to ask you about. This 155 00:08:30,050 --> 00:08:33,170 Speaker 2: is a question from me. There was a show you 156 00:08:33,210 --> 00:08:39,930 Speaker 2: did about the guy who invented amazingly both chlorofluorocarbons that 157 00:08:39,970 --> 00:08:42,650 Speaker 2: put a hole in the ozone layer of the whole 158 00:08:42,690 --> 00:08:48,370 Speaker 2: planet and leaded gas. Yeah, incredible. Remind me just his 159 00:08:48,490 --> 00:08:48,890 Speaker 2: name was. 160 00:08:49,010 --> 00:08:54,330 Speaker 1: Midgley, Thomas Midgley. Yeah, and he also rather tragically invented 161 00:08:55,050 --> 00:08:57,730 Speaker 1: he got polio and he was partially paralyzed, and he 162 00:08:57,810 --> 00:09:02,010 Speaker 1: invented this apparatus to get him out of bed and 163 00:09:02,050 --> 00:09:04,610 Speaker 1: it ended up strangling him. At least that's the official story. 164 00:09:05,050 --> 00:09:08,250 Speaker 1: So if you believe that, then he invented CFC's that 165 00:09:08,490 --> 00:09:12,090 Speaker 1: caused the ozon whole, and he invented lead and petrol, 166 00:09:12,170 --> 00:09:15,170 Speaker 1: and he invented something that accidentally killed him. 167 00:09:14,970 --> 00:09:21,130 Speaker 2: So unextraordinary narrative about an individual. And also you bring 168 00:09:21,130 --> 00:09:24,210 Speaker 2: in this big idea, which is you talk first about 169 00:09:24,890 --> 00:09:31,170 Speaker 2: unanticipated consequences from a twentieth century sociologist Merton, and then 170 00:09:31,210 --> 00:09:34,970 Speaker 2: you talk about unintended consequences. And you know, having covered 171 00:09:35,010 --> 00:09:41,290 Speaker 2: economics unintended consequences, economists talk about all the time unanticipated consequences. 172 00:09:41,450 --> 00:09:43,450 Speaker 2: I hadn't heard before. Do you want to just briefly 173 00:09:43,530 --> 00:09:45,410 Speaker 2: draw that distinction. I'm going somewhere with this. 174 00:09:46,010 --> 00:09:47,930 Speaker 1: Yeah, there was an interesting slip in the language. So 175 00:09:48,050 --> 00:09:53,730 Speaker 1: Robert Merton, who's amazing thinker, he originally wrote about unanticipated consequences, 176 00:09:53,770 --> 00:09:57,530 Speaker 1: and then over time he and other people used to 177 00:09:57,530 --> 00:10:00,770 Speaker 1: say unintended consequences instead. But there is a distinction. It's 178 00:10:00,770 --> 00:10:05,090 Speaker 1: an important distinction. So unanticipated consequences is like, you couldn't 179 00:10:05,130 --> 00:10:07,850 Speaker 1: have seen this coming with the hole in the ozone layer. 180 00:10:07,890 --> 00:10:12,010 Speaker 1: Who could have predicted? They te did this CFCs for toxicity, 181 00:10:12,050 --> 00:10:14,410 Speaker 1: They tested them in all kinds of ways. Who could 182 00:10:14,410 --> 00:10:17,970 Speaker 1: have foreseen despite all the safety testing, that CFCs would 183 00:10:18,010 --> 00:10:21,050 Speaker 1: have this chemical reaction in that would open this hole 184 00:10:21,090 --> 00:10:26,490 Speaker 1: in the ozone layer. So that's unanticipated. But unintended is different. 185 00:10:26,610 --> 00:10:28,810 Speaker 1: Unintended is like, well, we didn't mean to do it, 186 00:10:28,850 --> 00:10:31,170 Speaker 1: but I mean maybe you could have foreseen that it 187 00:10:31,170 --> 00:10:34,650 Speaker 1: would have happened. So leaded petrol is not unanticipated. The 188 00:10:34,730 --> 00:10:36,730 Speaker 1: idea that if you put lead, which is a known 189 00:10:36,770 --> 00:10:40,290 Speaker 1: toxin in fuel and it's coming out of the exhaust, 190 00:10:40,330 --> 00:10:42,850 Speaker 1: that that might be a problem. I mean that was known. 191 00:10:43,410 --> 00:10:46,370 Speaker 1: Midlely didn't intend to cause a problem. He argued that 192 00:10:46,370 --> 00:10:49,810 Speaker 1: there probably wouldn't be a problem. But it's not true 193 00:10:49,850 --> 00:10:53,610 Speaker 1: to say that it was unanticipated. Now that it was 194 00:10:53,650 --> 00:10:56,770 Speaker 1: anticipated is on the record. People warned him and he 195 00:10:56,810 --> 00:11:00,650 Speaker 1: brushed those warnings away, and I think that slipped from 196 00:11:00,730 --> 00:11:03,250 Speaker 1: unanticipated to unintended, which is like, well I didn't mean 197 00:11:03,250 --> 00:11:07,290 Speaker 1: to do it. That's just a very different moral standard. 198 00:11:07,330 --> 00:11:07,930 Speaker 1: I think. 199 00:11:09,210 --> 00:11:11,170 Speaker 2: Where I'm going with this, Here's why I wanted to 200 00:11:11,210 --> 00:11:14,610 Speaker 2: talk about it. I want to talk about AI right 201 00:11:14,650 --> 00:11:19,650 Speaker 2: now because you know, we're in this extraordinary moment of 202 00:11:19,690 --> 00:11:28,890 Speaker 2: AI development, and it seems like the most anticipated bad 203 00:11:29,290 --> 00:11:33,530 Speaker 2: potential consequences I know of in the history of technology, 204 00:11:33,650 --> 00:11:36,930 Speaker 2: Like the people at the very vanguard, you know, Open AI, 205 00:11:37,090 --> 00:11:40,130 Speaker 2: the makers of chat GPT, the model that is knocking 206 00:11:40,130 --> 00:11:43,890 Speaker 2: everybody's socks off. They started their company in part because 207 00:11:43,930 --> 00:11:46,410 Speaker 2: they were so scared of what AI could do in 208 00:11:46,450 --> 00:11:50,570 Speaker 2: the wrong hands. It is the opposite of unanticipated. They 209 00:11:50,610 --> 00:11:54,530 Speaker 2: are anticipating the bad consequences. And the more people know 210 00:11:55,170 --> 00:11:58,090 Speaker 2: about AI, the people working on AI are the ones 211 00:11:58,250 --> 00:12:02,090 Speaker 2: most worried about it, which seems so different than the 212 00:12:02,130 --> 00:12:06,170 Speaker 2: Midgley story than most of the history of technology. And 213 00:12:06,970 --> 00:12:09,610 Speaker 2: I don't quite know where to go with that. You know, 214 00:12:09,770 --> 00:12:12,050 Speaker 2: that's largely a comment what it just made. But what 215 00:12:12,130 --> 00:12:14,010 Speaker 2: I feel like you're very good at is like taking 216 00:12:14,010 --> 00:12:17,130 Speaker 2: something like that and then landing it somewhere like, Yeah, 217 00:12:17,410 --> 00:12:18,370 Speaker 2: what do we make of this? 218 00:12:18,530 --> 00:12:22,690 Speaker 1: Yeah, there's a few different angles that you could take. 219 00:12:22,770 --> 00:12:25,650 Speaker 1: And there's another parallel I would make, very different parallel, 220 00:12:25,690 --> 00:12:29,970 Speaker 1: and that's with Cambridge Analytica. So we still don't really 221 00:12:29,970 --> 00:12:34,450 Speaker 1: know what Cambridge Analytica exactly did, but they were helping 222 00:12:34,970 --> 00:12:39,130 Speaker 1: various political campaigns, including the Trump campaign in twenty sixteen, 223 00:12:39,570 --> 00:12:42,650 Speaker 1: to target different kinds of ads at people depending on 224 00:12:42,730 --> 00:12:46,810 Speaker 1: their personality types and if you believe them, and if 225 00:12:46,850 --> 00:12:50,890 Speaker 1: you believe what Facebook was saying at the time, this 226 00:12:50,890 --> 00:12:54,130 Speaker 1: can be incredibly effective. Cambridge Analytica were basically saying it's 227 00:12:54,170 --> 00:12:55,850 Speaker 1: like mind control. We can just get people to do 228 00:12:55,890 --> 00:12:59,290 Speaker 1: whatever we want because we really understand their personalities. And 229 00:12:59,330 --> 00:13:01,010 Speaker 1: then when the whole thing blew up into a scandal, 230 00:13:01,050 --> 00:13:04,130 Speaker 1: then the question is, well, maybe actually it wasn't in fact 231 00:13:04,210 --> 00:13:07,450 Speaker 1: that good. Maybe it didn't really make much difference. Maybe 232 00:13:07,490 --> 00:13:10,570 Speaker 1: they were just snake oil salesmen. Still don't know. But 233 00:13:10,890 --> 00:13:13,410 Speaker 1: the reason I draw a parallel with AI, obviously AI 234 00:13:13,610 --> 00:13:15,050 Speaker 1: is in the long run, I think a lot more 235 00:13:15,090 --> 00:13:19,450 Speaker 1: consequential is when these people who are designing these AIS 236 00:13:19,850 --> 00:13:22,410 Speaker 1: are saying, we're kind of worried that this is going 237 00:13:22,450 --> 00:13:24,890 Speaker 1: to take over the world. Are they worried that it's 238 00:13:24,890 --> 00:13:26,930 Speaker 1: going to take over the world or is this just 239 00:13:27,130 --> 00:13:29,650 Speaker 1: a backhanded way of saying, we're working on this incredibly 240 00:13:29,690 --> 00:13:31,730 Speaker 1: awesome technology, you should give us more money. And I 241 00:13:31,770 --> 00:13:34,010 Speaker 1: really don't know what to make of it, but there 242 00:13:34,090 --> 00:13:38,690 Speaker 1: is this strategy of kind of using disaster scenarios to 243 00:13:38,850 --> 00:13:41,370 Speaker 1: overhype the importance of your work, to get more funding 244 00:13:41,410 --> 00:13:44,810 Speaker 1: for your work, and to distract from what might actually 245 00:13:44,810 --> 00:13:45,650 Speaker 1: be the real problem. 246 00:13:46,250 --> 00:13:50,570 Speaker 2: There's a fundamental question inherent in what you're suggesting, which 247 00:13:50,610 --> 00:13:54,010 Speaker 2: is do the people who are working on AI who 248 00:13:54,050 --> 00:13:57,530 Speaker 2: say they're worried about it, you know, destroying humanity. Do 249 00:13:57,570 --> 00:14:01,690 Speaker 2: they really mean it or are they just doing marketing? Right? 250 00:14:01,810 --> 00:14:04,090 Speaker 2: I tend to believe they really mean it, but I 251 00:14:04,090 --> 00:14:04,770 Speaker 2: could be wrong. 252 00:14:08,370 --> 00:14:12,490 Speaker 1: Listening to US Special Q and a episode of Portionary Tales. 253 00:14:12,730 --> 00:14:15,570 Speaker 1: I'll be back with Jacob Goldstein in just a moment. 254 00:14:29,970 --> 00:14:33,810 Speaker 2: I'm gonna ask another listener question. Now, this one comes 255 00:14:34,450 --> 00:14:38,810 Speaker 2: from Peter Lancashire. Sounds like a very British name. The 256 00:14:38,890 --> 00:14:41,210 Speaker 2: question comes from his PS and it's a question that 257 00:14:41,290 --> 00:14:46,050 Speaker 2: many listeners asked. He writes, PS, I notice that in 258 00:14:46,090 --> 00:14:50,930 Speaker 2: the Pushkin podcasts you adapt your language units and currency 259 00:14:51,450 --> 00:14:55,090 Speaker 2: for a US audience. Do they really need this? Shouldn't 260 00:14:55,090 --> 00:14:55,850 Speaker 2: they get out more? 261 00:14:56,770 --> 00:14:59,370 Speaker 1: Well, let's put it this way. About half our listeners 262 00:14:59,650 --> 00:15:05,010 Speaker 1: are in the United States. It is the most important 263 00:15:05,650 --> 00:15:09,610 Speaker 1: country in terms of volume of listeners, and so it 264 00:15:09,730 --> 00:15:12,210 Speaker 1: kind of makes sense. And Pushkin is an American company also, 265 00:15:12,970 --> 00:15:16,810 Speaker 1: so it does make sense to use the units that 266 00:15:16,850 --> 00:15:20,530 Speaker 1: they are most likely to recognize. And I'm sure Americans 267 00:15:20,570 --> 00:15:22,690 Speaker 1: can cope, Well can you, Jacob? Can you cope with 268 00:15:23,330 --> 00:15:27,890 Speaker 1: degrees centigrade and kilometers and so on? Is that just bewildering? 269 00:15:28,570 --> 00:15:32,170 Speaker 2: I mean, you know, there's upsides and downsides to be 270 00:15:32,210 --> 00:15:35,570 Speaker 2: in an American. One of the upsides is people accommodate you. 271 00:15:35,690 --> 00:15:36,650 Speaker 2: I'll take it, but. 272 00:15:36,650 --> 00:15:40,650 Speaker 1: I mean the question is who should be accommodated. So 273 00:15:40,690 --> 00:15:44,930 Speaker 1: there's three possible answers. One is the Americans who are 274 00:15:44,970 --> 00:15:48,210 Speaker 1: the main audience. The second answer is most of the 275 00:15:48,210 --> 00:15:50,490 Speaker 1: rest of the world, who are used to dealing with 276 00:15:50,530 --> 00:15:52,890 Speaker 1: Americans and who are used to having to cope with 277 00:15:52,970 --> 00:15:55,810 Speaker 1: American language. And the third answer implicitly is I should 278 00:15:55,810 --> 00:15:58,250 Speaker 1: be the one being accommodated. I'm British, so I should 279 00:15:58,290 --> 00:16:02,050 Speaker 1: be using the units that I find personally most convenient. 280 00:16:02,290 --> 00:16:04,450 Speaker 1: But that doesn't seem to be the right answer. I 281 00:16:04,530 --> 00:16:08,410 Speaker 1: think people wouldn't ask this question of you, Jacob because 282 00:16:08,450 --> 00:16:12,570 Speaker 1: you're American, wouldn't ask it of Michael Lewis or Jill Lapaul. 283 00:16:13,010 --> 00:16:15,170 Speaker 1: They ask it of me because I'm British. But I 284 00:16:15,250 --> 00:16:18,530 Speaker 1: feel that I should be bending to fit the audience 285 00:16:18,570 --> 00:16:21,250 Speaker 1: in this respect. Doesn't that make sense? 286 00:16:22,010 --> 00:16:26,810 Speaker 2: Yeah? The one the one that's hard for me still, Like, 287 00:16:26,930 --> 00:16:29,330 Speaker 2: you know, I know what a pound is worth more 288 00:16:29,410 --> 00:16:32,250 Speaker 2: or less, I know how far a kilometer is. It's 289 00:16:32,290 --> 00:16:34,890 Speaker 2: really hard for me to go from Celsius to fahrenheit, Like, 290 00:16:34,890 --> 00:16:38,130 Speaker 2: I definitely think in fahrenheit, and I don't have an 291 00:16:38,170 --> 00:16:43,210 Speaker 2: intuition for celsius, partly because it's weird, right. 292 00:16:43,210 --> 00:16:46,650 Speaker 1: That translation is difficult. I used to live in Washington, 293 00:16:46,730 --> 00:16:48,850 Speaker 1: d C. For a couple of years, and in Washington, 294 00:16:48,890 --> 00:16:51,850 Speaker 1: d C. The temperature range across the year is much 295 00:16:51,890 --> 00:16:54,850 Speaker 1: more than the temperature range in England. It gets colder, 296 00:16:54,890 --> 00:16:57,890 Speaker 1: it gets hotter, and so every morning you listen to 297 00:16:57,890 --> 00:17:00,610 Speaker 1: the radio, they tell you what the temperature was in fahrenheit, 298 00:17:00,650 --> 00:17:02,770 Speaker 1: and so pretty soon you got a sense of what 299 00:17:02,890 --> 00:17:05,770 Speaker 1: this means. But you do have to actually live under 300 00:17:05,850 --> 00:17:10,210 Speaker 1: the other system to get that intuition. I think usually 301 00:17:10,250 --> 00:17:15,930 Speaker 1: if I'm doing temperatures, I usually give both fahrenheit and celsius. 302 00:17:16,050 --> 00:17:17,490 Speaker 2: That seems very accommodating. 303 00:17:17,770 --> 00:17:19,850 Speaker 1: Well, I just want everyone to understand. I mean, there's 304 00:17:19,850 --> 00:17:22,570 Speaker 1: obviously a cost to explaining everything, to saying everything two 305 00:17:22,690 --> 00:17:26,090 Speaker 1: or three times, but you know, for temperatures, yeah, I 306 00:17:26,090 --> 00:17:28,010 Speaker 1: want people to understand what's going on, and that usually 307 00:17:28,010 --> 00:17:29,970 Speaker 1: means giving both units. 308 00:17:30,570 --> 00:17:33,730 Speaker 2: This next question comes from Tom Quincy, and he writes, 309 00:17:34,290 --> 00:17:37,090 Speaker 2: I'm curious about what inventions didn't quite make the cut 310 00:17:37,090 --> 00:17:40,330 Speaker 2: for your series Fifty Things that made the modern economy, 311 00:17:40,730 --> 00:17:43,730 Speaker 2: or if in hindsight there's anything you regret not including Now, 312 00:17:43,890 --> 00:17:45,650 Speaker 2: let me just before you answer, is it right that 313 00:17:45,690 --> 00:17:48,370 Speaker 2: you actually did another fifty you did you in fact 314 00:17:48,530 --> 00:17:50,410 Speaker 2: ended up doing one hundred or one hundred and one 315 00:17:50,450 --> 00:17:51,810 Speaker 2: things that made the modern economy. 316 00:17:51,810 --> 00:17:53,170 Speaker 1: I think it may have been one hundred and two. 317 00:17:53,170 --> 00:17:55,290 Speaker 1: In the end, it was like fifty, then another fifty, 318 00:17:55,330 --> 00:17:58,890 Speaker 1: then like a listener special, I forget, I forget exactly. 319 00:17:59,050 --> 00:18:01,370 Speaker 2: So good news for Tom Quincy. Tom. If you want 320 00:18:01,410 --> 00:18:04,130 Speaker 2: more things that made the modern economy, Tim's got a 321 00:18:04,130 --> 00:18:06,690 Speaker 2: lot for you. So give us the whatever one hundred 322 00:18:06,730 --> 00:18:08,810 Speaker 2: and third you got one just on deck. 323 00:18:09,730 --> 00:18:14,690 Speaker 1: Well, there's one I'm working on right now for Cautionary Tales, 324 00:18:14,810 --> 00:18:16,810 Speaker 1: which could have been of fifty things that made the 325 00:18:16,810 --> 00:18:19,330 Speaker 1: modern economy. And as with many of them, it's not 326 00:18:19,370 --> 00:18:24,530 Speaker 1: because it's an incredibly important invention. It's because there's a 327 00:18:24,570 --> 00:18:27,970 Speaker 1: surprise there. There's a broader principle, and that's the laser disc. 328 00:18:28,210 --> 00:18:29,970 Speaker 1: So I'm doing a cautioning Tales about the laser disc. 329 00:18:30,010 --> 00:18:33,170 Speaker 1: I don't want to introduce too many spoilers, but the 330 00:18:33,210 --> 00:18:37,610 Speaker 1: gist of it is the BBC in the nineteen eighties, 331 00:18:38,210 --> 00:18:42,130 Speaker 1: decided that they were going to launch this epic project 332 00:18:42,370 --> 00:18:46,010 Speaker 1: to go out and interview lots of people, take photographs, 333 00:18:46,090 --> 00:18:49,490 Speaker 1: measure the country. It was like this informal survey census thing, 334 00:18:50,330 --> 00:18:52,890 Speaker 1: and school kids from all over the country were involved, 335 00:18:52,930 --> 00:18:55,530 Speaker 1: and the whole thing was put on this amazing, super 336 00:18:55,570 --> 00:18:58,850 Speaker 1: modern laser disc system that schools could buy this laser 337 00:18:58,890 --> 00:19:01,730 Speaker 1: disc and computer, and so it was kind of like 338 00:19:01,730 --> 00:19:05,210 Speaker 1: Wikipedia in nineteen eighty six. And the cautionary tale is 339 00:19:05,410 --> 00:19:11,330 Speaker 1: that within fifteen years became a genuine problem to find 340 00:19:11,610 --> 00:19:14,370 Speaker 1: any system that was capable of actually reading the laser discs. 341 00:19:14,570 --> 00:19:17,250 Speaker 1: So there was supposed to be this generational effort, this 342 00:19:17,330 --> 00:19:20,570 Speaker 1: time capsule that would last hundreds of years using this 343 00:19:20,650 --> 00:19:25,370 Speaker 1: super modern technology, and almost immediately the thing was obsolete 344 00:19:25,410 --> 00:19:27,970 Speaker 1: and they couldn't read it. And so I'm just drawing 345 00:19:28,010 --> 00:19:31,810 Speaker 1: out like what the lessons are and these kind of 346 00:19:31,850 --> 00:19:35,810 Speaker 1: heroic nerd efforts to get the data back, and what 347 00:19:35,850 --> 00:19:38,130 Speaker 1: it took to get the data back and what happened. 348 00:19:39,050 --> 00:19:41,010 Speaker 1: So the laser disc would have been one if I 349 00:19:41,410 --> 00:19:42,490 Speaker 1: if I was writing it today. 350 00:19:43,850 --> 00:19:48,530 Speaker 2: Okay, here's a question from Fay Edwards, who writes, I'm 351 00:19:48,530 --> 00:19:51,490 Speaker 2: a huge fan of your work, and especially the Cautionary 352 00:19:51,530 --> 00:19:55,690 Speaker 2: Tales podcast in its original, rich storytelling format. My question 353 00:19:55,810 --> 00:19:58,610 Speaker 2: is you seem to have changed the format recently to 354 00:19:58,690 --> 00:20:03,290 Speaker 2: include more interview style episodes and conversational pieces. Actually like 355 00:20:03,330 --> 00:20:06,130 Speaker 2: this show that we're doing right now, aside slowing down 356 00:20:06,170 --> 00:20:08,290 Speaker 2: the pace of delivery of the episodes that I just 357 00:20:08,330 --> 00:20:11,650 Speaker 2: can't get enough, is there a reason for the change? 358 00:20:12,770 --> 00:20:15,210 Speaker 1: So, and a few people have asked questions like this, 359 00:20:15,530 --> 00:20:20,930 Speaker 1: So we haven't actually changed the frequency of the show 360 00:20:21,090 --> 00:20:23,010 Speaker 1: for a while. So it used to be we'd have 361 00:20:23,050 --> 00:20:25,890 Speaker 1: weekly shows and a series would be like, I don't know, 362 00:20:25,930 --> 00:20:28,970 Speaker 1: eight episodes or ten episodes, and then we thought, well, 363 00:20:28,970 --> 00:20:31,450 Speaker 1: hang on, if we do it every two weeks, we 364 00:20:31,490 --> 00:20:34,490 Speaker 1: could just keep going forever. So we could do we think, 365 00:20:34,530 --> 00:20:38,050 Speaker 1: twenty six episodes a year. So that's what we did, 366 00:20:38,050 --> 00:20:41,530 Speaker 1: and we made that decision in early twenty twenty two, 367 00:20:41,570 --> 00:20:46,490 Speaker 1: so we've been doing that for a year and interspersing 368 00:20:46,810 --> 00:20:54,410 Speaker 1: the occasional conversation. So usually we have a classic, fully 369 00:20:54,450 --> 00:20:58,050 Speaker 1: worked caution Retales episode every two weeks. Sometimes we will 370 00:20:58,050 --> 00:21:01,410 Speaker 1: skip a fortnite and we'll put a Cautionary conversation in instead. 371 00:21:01,850 --> 00:21:04,730 Speaker 1: So the first answer is I don't see it like that. 372 00:21:04,770 --> 00:21:06,850 Speaker 1: The Cautionary Conversations are supposed to be like a bonus. 373 00:21:06,930 --> 00:21:08,730 Speaker 1: I think they're really fun. But if you don't like it, 374 00:21:08,770 --> 00:21:11,410 Speaker 1: then you know, just skip and we'll be back next 375 00:21:11,410 --> 00:21:13,530 Speaker 1: week with the full thing. But I'll be interested in 376 00:21:13,610 --> 00:21:19,090 Speaker 1: people's thoughts, whether people think, no, they're brilliant. Absolutely love them, 377 00:21:19,090 --> 00:21:22,130 Speaker 1: They're just as good as any other episode of Cautionary Tales. 378 00:21:22,210 --> 00:21:25,730 Speaker 1: Don't touch them, or maybe people think, you know, they're 379 00:21:25,770 --> 00:21:27,890 Speaker 1: fine as a bonus. I don't love them, but you know, 380 00:21:28,130 --> 00:21:30,090 Speaker 1: I enjoy them from time to time, or maybe people 381 00:21:30,090 --> 00:21:34,170 Speaker 1: are actively like this is very annoying to have any 382 00:21:34,210 --> 00:21:36,450 Speaker 1: conversations in the feed at all. I ever want to 383 00:21:36,490 --> 00:21:39,770 Speaker 1: hear it. I'd like to get a sense of how 384 00:21:39,770 --> 00:21:41,850 Speaker 1: people think about that, So, you know, let us know 385 00:21:42,290 --> 00:21:45,090 Speaker 1: tales at pushkin dot fm, let us know what you think. 386 00:21:46,090 --> 00:21:50,490 Speaker 2: Here's another question. Hi, Tim, I am Amelia. I am 387 00:21:50,530 --> 00:21:54,570 Speaker 2: eleven years old, and my favorite color is pink. I 388 00:21:54,650 --> 00:21:57,170 Speaker 2: love listening to the show every time I'm in the car. 389 00:21:57,610 --> 00:21:59,930 Speaker 2: I have two questions to ask you for the Q 390 00:22:00,050 --> 00:22:02,970 Speaker 2: and A episode. The first one is which is your 391 00:22:02,970 --> 00:22:06,850 Speaker 2: favorite episode of Cautionary Tales, and then the second one 392 00:22:06,890 --> 00:22:10,490 Speaker 2: is how does cautionary tales compare to editing the newspaper? 393 00:22:10,850 --> 00:22:15,170 Speaker 2: Thank you for reading this, Amelia, eleven years old, England, Cheshire. 394 00:22:15,850 --> 00:22:19,290 Speaker 1: Well, thank you, Amelia. My son is eleven years old 395 00:22:19,450 --> 00:22:22,450 Speaker 1: and he also likes pink and he also likes listening 396 00:22:22,490 --> 00:22:25,690 Speaker 1: to cause news sales, although I worry that some of 397 00:22:25,690 --> 00:22:29,970 Speaker 1: the course news tales are not really appropriate for eleven 398 00:22:30,050 --> 00:22:31,410 Speaker 1: year old one. 399 00:22:31,610 --> 00:22:33,050 Speaker 2: What's your favorite episode of the show. 400 00:22:33,770 --> 00:22:36,650 Speaker 1: Since Amelia asked so nicely, I am actually going to 401 00:22:36,690 --> 00:22:40,170 Speaker 1: tell her, but only nobody else listened, just Amelia, it's 402 00:22:40,210 --> 00:22:42,250 Speaker 1: the one about the airships. It's the Deadly Airship Race, 403 00:22:42,730 --> 00:22:47,010 Speaker 1: which is it's probably not the best episode. It's not 404 00:22:47,050 --> 00:22:49,810 Speaker 1: the most elegant, it's not the most important. It's the 405 00:22:49,810 --> 00:22:53,410 Speaker 1: one that I had in my head when I first 406 00:22:53,570 --> 00:22:57,650 Speaker 1: said to Pushkin, we should do a series of podcasts 407 00:22:57,650 --> 00:22:59,970 Speaker 1: about stuff going wrong, and it's the first one that 408 00:23:00,010 --> 00:23:03,370 Speaker 1: I wrote. So that's my favorite, the Deadly Airship Race. 409 00:23:03,530 --> 00:23:05,650 Speaker 1: But that's just between the two of us. 410 00:23:07,570 --> 00:23:10,770 Speaker 2: Her other question is how quessionary tales compared to editing 411 00:23:10,810 --> 00:23:13,370 Speaker 2: the newspaper. I believe she means writing a column for 412 00:23:13,410 --> 00:23:16,650 Speaker 2: the Financial Times. If I know your work correctly, I. 413 00:23:16,570 --> 00:23:22,730 Speaker 1: Think the main difference is the teamwork. So with Cautionary Tales, 414 00:23:23,530 --> 00:23:26,690 Speaker 1: when I've written it, I will send it to my 415 00:23:27,370 --> 00:23:32,050 Speaker 1: co writer Andrew Wright. He will always find loads of comments, 416 00:23:32,050 --> 00:23:34,850 Speaker 1: loads of improvements. He'll send them back, or sometimes Andrew 417 00:23:34,850 --> 00:23:37,450 Speaker 1: writes them, and Andrew sends them to me. Is he 418 00:23:37,530 --> 00:23:40,170 Speaker 1: usually better? So I usually have less stuff to say 419 00:23:40,170 --> 00:23:42,290 Speaker 1: about them. But we're sending each other scripts and we're 420 00:23:42,290 --> 00:23:45,090 Speaker 1: working on each other scripts, and then there's an editorial 421 00:23:45,130 --> 00:23:47,850 Speaker 1: process where we do table reads and we get comments 422 00:23:47,850 --> 00:23:50,130 Speaker 1: from other people, and people say that this was confusing, 423 00:23:50,530 --> 00:23:52,170 Speaker 1: you didn't start it in the right direction. You need 424 00:23:52,210 --> 00:23:56,210 Speaker 1: to change various stuff. So it's a very collaborative process. 425 00:23:56,610 --> 00:24:00,770 Speaker 1: And then afterwards it's out of my hands and Pascal Wise, 426 00:24:00,810 --> 00:24:03,770 Speaker 1: our composer and sound designer, does this amazing music. We 427 00:24:03,850 --> 00:24:06,650 Speaker 1: sometimes have brilliant actress, some people like Jeffrey Wright, Helen 428 00:24:06,690 --> 00:24:08,890 Speaker 1: and the Bottom Carter. I didn't get to meet them, 429 00:24:09,250 --> 00:24:11,130 Speaker 1: just get to listen to the results of Helen and 430 00:24:11,130 --> 00:24:15,330 Speaker 1: Bottom Carter playing Florence Nightingale or Jeffrey Wright playing Martin 431 00:24:15,410 --> 00:24:17,970 Speaker 1: Luther King. So there's this real sense of this whole 432 00:24:18,010 --> 00:24:21,410 Speaker 1: thing being bigger than just me and being a team effort. 433 00:24:21,970 --> 00:24:24,290 Speaker 1: For the newspaper, it's different. There is, of course a 434 00:24:24,330 --> 00:24:27,010 Speaker 1: team effort involved in the newspaper. There is an editorial team, 435 00:24:27,450 --> 00:24:31,730 Speaker 1: but it's much more linear, it's quicker. So caution Tales 436 00:24:31,810 --> 00:24:34,770 Speaker 1: episodes can take months to finally see the light of day, 437 00:24:34,770 --> 00:24:37,810 Speaker 1: whereas the newspaper column it's a matter of days. I 438 00:24:37,810 --> 00:24:40,690 Speaker 1: will write it, I'll send it. They might have a 439 00:24:40,690 --> 00:24:42,530 Speaker 1: couple of questions, they might make a couple of tweaks, 440 00:24:43,410 --> 00:24:45,210 Speaker 1: and then it just it goes on the page and 441 00:24:45,210 --> 00:24:47,130 Speaker 1: there's a cartoonist and they'll send it to me and 442 00:24:47,130 --> 00:24:49,170 Speaker 1: I'll just check that I'm happy with any edits. There's 443 00:24:49,250 --> 00:24:51,250 Speaker 1: much less back and forth, and that's fine. I like 444 00:24:51,410 --> 00:24:53,490 Speaker 1: both of them. I'm very proud to write for the 445 00:24:53,530 --> 00:24:56,570 Speaker 1: FT and I really love writing caution news sales. But 446 00:24:56,650 --> 00:24:58,090 Speaker 1: that different process is the main thing. 447 00:25:00,130 --> 00:25:02,850 Speaker 2: Here's a question. I'm gonna go big on this one. 448 00:25:04,010 --> 00:25:07,330 Speaker 2: So you've made fifty or so episodes of cautionary tales 449 00:25:07,370 --> 00:25:13,250 Speaker 2: by now, if you step back, is there some transcendent 450 00:25:15,170 --> 00:25:17,450 Speaker 2: lesson that comes through a lot of them? Is there 451 00:25:17,530 --> 00:25:20,490 Speaker 2: like a cautionary tale that emerges from all of the 452 00:25:20,530 --> 00:25:21,490 Speaker 2: cautionary tales? 453 00:25:21,850 --> 00:25:24,010 Speaker 1: Probably not, a single one. I mean, as I say, 454 00:25:24,050 --> 00:25:27,410 Speaker 1: I am always looking for variety, but there are a 455 00:25:27,490 --> 00:25:32,130 Speaker 1: few that come up again and again. One is just 456 00:25:33,290 --> 00:25:36,330 Speaker 1: that we tend to blame the individuals when in fact 457 00:25:36,410 --> 00:25:40,570 Speaker 1: it's the system. That's a very common thing. The other 458 00:25:40,770 --> 00:25:44,250 Speaker 1: is that a lot of disasters are just very unlucky, 459 00:25:45,050 --> 00:25:47,410 Speaker 1: like a lot of things needed to go wrong in 460 00:25:47,530 --> 00:25:51,330 Speaker 1: order for the disaster to happen. But you know, the 461 00:25:51,370 --> 00:25:55,090 Speaker 1: world's a big place. There are lots of moments where 462 00:25:55,250 --> 00:25:57,730 Speaker 1: things can start to go wrong, and so in the end, 463 00:25:57,770 --> 00:26:00,170 Speaker 1: someone is going to be really unlucky. And that's going 464 00:26:00,210 --> 00:26:04,090 Speaker 1: to happen often enough that I don't anticipate running out 465 00:26:04,090 --> 00:26:10,170 Speaker 1: of caution de Tales anytime soon. Listening to a special 466 00:26:10,290 --> 00:26:13,330 Speaker 1: Q and a episode of Cautionary Tales. We'll be back 467 00:26:13,530 --> 00:26:14,650 Speaker 1: in just a moment. 468 00:26:25,450 --> 00:26:28,330 Speaker 2: So Tim. On the show that I host podcast called 469 00:26:28,330 --> 00:26:30,570 Speaker 2: What's Your Problem? It's available wherever you get your podcasts. 470 00:26:30,650 --> 00:26:31,970 Speaker 1: Great show. People should listen to it. 471 00:26:32,210 --> 00:26:34,890 Speaker 2: We close with the Lightning Round, and I want to 472 00:26:34,930 --> 00:26:37,050 Speaker 2: close this show with the Lightning Round, So. 473 00:26:37,170 --> 00:26:39,250 Speaker 1: I want the Lightning Round. I love the Lightning rounds. 474 00:26:39,690 --> 00:26:41,530 Speaker 1: I hope I'm worthy go for it. 475 00:26:42,890 --> 00:26:44,930 Speaker 2: What's one tip for someone who wants to become a 476 00:26:44,970 --> 00:26:46,650 Speaker 2: better storyteller. 477 00:26:47,770 --> 00:26:53,450 Speaker 1: Read good stories and think about how they work. I'm 478 00:26:53,450 --> 00:26:55,330 Speaker 1: going to give you a second tip, which is think 479 00:26:55,370 --> 00:26:57,770 Speaker 1: about how the story is going to end. If you 480 00:26:57,810 --> 00:27:00,850 Speaker 1: know how it's going to end, that really helps you throughout, 481 00:27:00,890 --> 00:27:02,410 Speaker 1: and particularly when you're right in the beginning. 482 00:27:03,570 --> 00:27:06,170 Speaker 2: So one of the sort of signature features of cautionary 483 00:27:06,210 --> 00:27:08,970 Speaker 2: tales is the dramatic reenactment. If you've had some fame 484 00:27:09,450 --> 00:27:13,570 Speaker 2: actors do those, which is fun, and so I'm curious 485 00:27:14,210 --> 00:27:17,690 Speaker 2: if there was a dramatic reenactment about part of your life, 486 00:27:19,130 --> 00:27:21,650 Speaker 2: who would play you? Who would play me? 487 00:27:22,410 --> 00:27:27,410 Speaker 1: Oh gosh. The person who springs to mind is Alan Cumming, 488 00:27:27,490 --> 00:27:29,050 Speaker 1: and he springs to mind because he's one of the 489 00:27:29,050 --> 00:27:31,450 Speaker 1: great actors who's been on caution details. He has this 490 00:27:32,210 --> 00:27:34,210 Speaker 1: role in a Bond movie where he just plays this 491 00:27:34,290 --> 00:27:37,890 Speaker 1: sort of magnificent nerd who thinks he's brilliant but is 492 00:27:38,010 --> 00:27:42,090 Speaker 1: kind of an idiot. And I think I'm brilliant and 493 00:27:42,130 --> 00:27:45,850 Speaker 1: I'm probably an idiot. So so, Alan Cumming, is there 494 00:27:45,890 --> 00:27:52,930 Speaker 1: some book or essay that you think everybody should read? 495 00:27:53,250 --> 00:27:59,050 Speaker 1: So on the nerdy side, I am fond of the 496 00:27:59,170 --> 00:28:03,250 Speaker 1: good productivity stuff. So David Allan's Getting Things Done, for example, 497 00:28:03,290 --> 00:28:06,090 Speaker 1: I think is really good. And on the less nerdy side, 498 00:28:06,130 --> 00:28:08,890 Speaker 1: the more philosophical side. I have a really soft spot 499 00:28:09,530 --> 00:28:13,170 Speaker 1: for The Tower of Pooh by Benjamin Hoff, which tries 500 00:28:13,210 --> 00:28:18,930 Speaker 1: to explain Taoism through the medium of reflecting on win 501 00:28:19,010 --> 00:28:23,250 Speaker 1: of the Pooh stories. And I read that at college 502 00:28:23,890 --> 00:28:27,130 Speaker 1: and it was important to me. And I've been doing 503 00:28:27,170 --> 00:28:32,570 Speaker 1: taichi for thirty years now, so yeah, that's a book 504 00:28:32,610 --> 00:28:33,090 Speaker 1: worth reading. 505 00:28:33,970 --> 00:28:36,370 Speaker 2: How many episodes of TV have you watched in the 506 00:28:36,450 --> 00:28:38,770 Speaker 2: last twenty years. Not many. 507 00:28:38,850 --> 00:28:43,130 Speaker 1: I've never owned a TV, but obviously with Netflix, with computers, 508 00:28:43,170 --> 00:28:44,290 Speaker 1: it all starts to merge. 509 00:28:44,330 --> 00:28:45,010 Speaker 2: I mean I've. 510 00:28:46,570 --> 00:28:50,050 Speaker 1: There were probably whole years where it was like one 511 00:28:50,570 --> 00:28:53,770 Speaker 1: in the entire year, but I think more recently, since 512 00:28:53,810 --> 00:28:58,610 Speaker 1: the pandemic and since Netflix, I probably watch like two 513 00:28:58,610 --> 00:28:59,050 Speaker 1: a month. 514 00:28:59,330 --> 00:29:06,690 Speaker 2: Maybe when you're kickboxing, what hurts the most the pushups? 515 00:29:07,970 --> 00:29:09,010 Speaker 2: We don't see that coming. 516 00:29:09,130 --> 00:29:12,450 Speaker 1: It's like it's the exercise. It's the fitness exercises that 517 00:29:12,490 --> 00:29:14,650 Speaker 1: really hurt. I'm sure when I have my black belt, 518 00:29:14,650 --> 00:29:16,850 Speaker 1: people will start hitting me hard, but at the moment, 519 00:29:16,930 --> 00:29:18,770 Speaker 1: the idea is not that people hit you hard. So 520 00:29:18,810 --> 00:29:21,450 Speaker 1: if someone hits you hard then that they made a mistake. 521 00:29:22,690 --> 00:29:26,970 Speaker 2: What do you think people who are not economists most 522 00:29:27,090 --> 00:29:29,490 Speaker 2: often get wrong about economics. 523 00:29:30,690 --> 00:29:33,130 Speaker 1: I think they miss the fact that a lot of 524 00:29:33,130 --> 00:29:36,610 Speaker 1: economics isn't zero some. So we naturally think in terms 525 00:29:36,650 --> 00:29:40,250 Speaker 1: of zero some, like anything that I gain, you have 526 00:29:40,330 --> 00:29:42,730 Speaker 1: to lose. That's just a natural way of thinking about 527 00:29:42,770 --> 00:29:45,890 Speaker 1: the world. But economics is all about opportunities to create 528 00:29:46,010 --> 00:29:49,210 Speaker 1: gains from trade. When when opportunities or just stuff when 529 00:29:49,930 --> 00:29:53,090 Speaker 1: where things could be better, better in total, better for everybody, 530 00:29:53,290 --> 00:29:57,610 Speaker 1: and and we miss that. And conversely, economists can be 531 00:29:57,650 --> 00:30:01,570 Speaker 1: blind to conflict. Sometimes It's like sometimes things are zero 532 00:30:01,690 --> 00:30:03,170 Speaker 1: some and we're kind of a bit naive about the 533 00:30:03,170 --> 00:30:04,850 Speaker 1: politics of that. 534 00:30:04,850 --> 00:30:08,090 Speaker 2: That was true for me, you know, I never studied 535 00:30:08,090 --> 00:30:10,210 Speaker 2: economics before I went worked at Planet Money. I sort 536 00:30:10,250 --> 00:30:13,530 Speaker 2: of learned it there. The fact that the world can 537 00:30:13,570 --> 00:30:16,530 Speaker 2: be positive some in so many places, the pie can 538 00:30:16,530 --> 00:30:19,050 Speaker 2: get bigger, and that, in fact, the sort of history 539 00:30:19,130 --> 00:30:22,210 Speaker 2: of the kind of material experience of humanity for the 540 00:30:22,250 --> 00:30:26,530 Speaker 2: last two hundred years has been of people overall getting 541 00:30:26,530 --> 00:30:29,650 Speaker 2: better off was a revelation to me, like that is 542 00:30:29,730 --> 00:30:32,530 Speaker 2: the great lesson of economics as far as I'm concerned. 543 00:30:32,730 --> 00:30:34,250 Speaker 2: I feel like it is not intuitive. 544 00:30:34,530 --> 00:30:38,330 Speaker 1: It's also not the branding of economics, So economics is 545 00:30:38,330 --> 00:30:41,810 Speaker 1: famously known as the dismal science. Economics is associated with 546 00:30:42,450 --> 00:30:45,170 Speaker 1: like why we can't have nice things, scarcity, all of 547 00:30:45,170 --> 00:30:47,930 Speaker 1: this kind of stuff. It feels like quite a grim 548 00:30:48,970 --> 00:30:51,570 Speaker 1: topic from the outside that somehow we've managed to paint 549 00:30:51,610 --> 00:30:55,290 Speaker 1: ourselves in that light. Yet from the inside, it's just 550 00:30:55,410 --> 00:30:57,810 Speaker 1: full of like, hey, there's a way to do this better. Oh, 551 00:30:57,850 --> 00:30:59,650 Speaker 1: this is getting better all the time. That's getting better 552 00:30:59,690 --> 00:31:01,250 Speaker 1: all the time. You know, we can improve this, we 553 00:31:01,290 --> 00:31:05,170 Speaker 1: can solve that problem. It's a much more optimistic discipline 554 00:31:05,170 --> 00:31:06,250 Speaker 1: from the inside, I think. 555 00:31:06,770 --> 00:31:09,650 Speaker 2: So, I know you played Dungeons and Dragons, So I 556 00:31:09,690 --> 00:31:11,130 Speaker 2: asked some friends of mine who played D and D 557 00:31:11,250 --> 00:31:12,490 Speaker 2: what I should ask you. So I'm just going to 558 00:31:12,570 --> 00:31:14,690 Speaker 2: read some of the questions from them. What's the most 559 00:31:14,730 --> 00:31:16,730 Speaker 2: surprising emotion you've felt at the table. 560 00:31:18,850 --> 00:31:24,090 Speaker 1: I once played a visually impaired character like I completely 561 00:31:24,450 --> 00:31:29,250 Speaker 1: she couldn't see at all, and I took to wearing 562 00:31:29,290 --> 00:31:32,250 Speaker 1: a blindfold around the house just to try to understand 563 00:31:32,330 --> 00:31:34,450 Speaker 1: what it was like. I'm not sure this is an emotion, 564 00:31:34,530 --> 00:31:37,170 Speaker 1: but that's kind of like the biggest lesson that was 565 00:31:37,210 --> 00:31:42,010 Speaker 1: just transformative to to realize how difficult it was, at 566 00:31:42,090 --> 00:31:44,010 Speaker 1: least if you hadn't had any practice to just not 567 00:31:44,050 --> 00:31:44,770 Speaker 1: be able to see. 568 00:31:45,330 --> 00:31:47,610 Speaker 2: There's a thing I think in D and D where 569 00:31:47,610 --> 00:31:49,730 Speaker 2: it's like a two by two matrix where you can 570 00:31:49,770 --> 00:31:53,850 Speaker 2: be like lawful evil or chaotic good or whatever. 571 00:31:54,090 --> 00:31:56,850 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a three by three matrix. But that's fine, 572 00:31:57,130 --> 00:31:57,690 Speaker 1: we'll allow it. 573 00:31:57,810 --> 00:32:00,490 Speaker 2: How about this. What's the most fun to play on 574 00:32:00,570 --> 00:32:01,250 Speaker 2: that matrix? 575 00:32:01,490 --> 00:32:04,610 Speaker 1: So it's probably chaotic good because you get to think 576 00:32:04,610 --> 00:32:06,250 Speaker 1: of yourself as the good guy, and you get to 577 00:32:06,290 --> 00:32:07,970 Speaker 1: be the good guy, but you also get to kind 578 00:32:07,970 --> 00:32:10,410 Speaker 1: of rock and roll and improv and do whatever you 579 00:32:10,490 --> 00:32:11,970 Speaker 1: want and you don't have to follow any rules as 580 00:32:12,010 --> 00:32:13,690 Speaker 1: long as you're doing good stuff. 581 00:32:13,930 --> 00:32:16,010 Speaker 2: That is the creative dream. I would love to be 582 00:32:16,090 --> 00:32:18,290 Speaker 2: chaotic good. Maybe I used to be chaotic good and 583 00:32:18,290 --> 00:32:19,210 Speaker 2: now I'm lawful good. 584 00:32:19,530 --> 00:32:22,730 Speaker 1: I'd like to and to answer the question you didn't ask, 585 00:32:22,770 --> 00:32:25,450 Speaker 1: but you sort of was implicit, I like to think 586 00:32:25,490 --> 00:32:27,610 Speaker 1: of myself as chaotic good, but I'm actually probably just 587 00:32:27,690 --> 00:32:30,410 Speaker 1: lawful neutral. I'm just a rules follower deep down who 588 00:32:30,450 --> 00:32:32,330 Speaker 1: thinks he's kind of rock and roll and jazz. 589 00:32:33,810 --> 00:32:35,450 Speaker 2: What's your favorite role playing game. Right now. 590 00:32:36,450 --> 00:32:38,490 Speaker 1: It is in front of me on the desk. It's 591 00:32:38,490 --> 00:32:42,690 Speaker 1: called Scum and Villainy. It's very improvisational. I've not played 592 00:32:42,730 --> 00:32:45,210 Speaker 1: it yet. I'm going to run my first game on Monday, 593 00:32:45,730 --> 00:32:49,370 Speaker 1: and it's kind of designed to enable you to run 594 00:32:49,530 --> 00:32:53,290 Speaker 1: kind of Star Wars he heists with Han Soloy or 595 00:32:53,370 --> 00:32:58,090 Speaker 1: Cassian and or Y kind of characters, so smugglers and rebels, 596 00:32:58,930 --> 00:33:01,410 Speaker 1: and I think it's it's going to be really fun, 597 00:33:01,490 --> 00:33:03,770 Speaker 1: but it might be a disaster. We'll see. Name one 598 00:33:03,770 --> 00:33:07,690 Speaker 1: thing Cambridge does better than Oxford what economics. I mean, 599 00:33:07,690 --> 00:33:10,850 Speaker 1: they have an economics undergraduate course and Oxford doesn't. So 600 00:33:11,090 --> 00:33:13,650 Speaker 1: economics at Cambridge it is amazing. 601 00:33:14,570 --> 00:33:16,730 Speaker 2: Is there any story from your life that would make 602 00:33:16,730 --> 00:33:17,690 Speaker 2: a good cautionary tale. 603 00:33:18,370 --> 00:33:21,090 Speaker 1: I think there were cautionary anecdotes in my life, the 604 00:33:21,130 --> 00:33:23,810 Speaker 1: same as anybody else's. And just to give you on 605 00:33:24,010 --> 00:33:27,410 Speaker 1: very quickly, my first job when I finished my master's 606 00:33:27,410 --> 00:33:30,290 Speaker 1: degree in economics was as a management consultant. And I 607 00:33:30,330 --> 00:33:33,170 Speaker 1: was a really bad management consultant. I was allergic to 608 00:33:33,210 --> 00:33:35,970 Speaker 1: my suit I would cry in the office. I just 609 00:33:36,050 --> 00:33:39,050 Speaker 1: hated the job, and I stuck with it for a 610 00:33:39,090 --> 00:33:41,930 Speaker 1: while because all my friends were saying, hey, it's a 611 00:33:41,970 --> 00:33:43,770 Speaker 1: good job, it's well paid. You need a couple of 612 00:33:43,850 --> 00:33:46,490 Speaker 1: years on your resume. You can't be seen as just 613 00:33:46,570 --> 00:33:49,930 Speaker 1: like quitting a job after a few months. And it 614 00:33:50,010 --> 00:33:51,810 Speaker 1: was a friend of mine, a gaming friend, actually a 615 00:33:51,850 --> 00:33:54,610 Speaker 1: D and D friend, if you like, who told me. 616 00:33:54,650 --> 00:33:57,650 Speaker 1: He actually literally said, if you're taking actual hit points damage, 617 00:33:58,210 --> 00:34:00,890 Speaker 1: you should quit immediately. He actually said it like that. 618 00:34:01,250 --> 00:34:03,610 Speaker 1: But more importantly, he was older, he was from a 619 00:34:03,610 --> 00:34:07,130 Speaker 1: different industry, He had a different perspective, and he was like, 620 00:34:07,290 --> 00:34:10,730 Speaker 1: why would you build your reputation and your skills and 621 00:34:10,730 --> 00:34:15,570 Speaker 1: your contacts in this industry that you hate. Why don't 622 00:34:15,570 --> 00:34:18,250 Speaker 1: you quit as quickly as possible and go and do 623 00:34:18,290 --> 00:34:20,530 Speaker 1: something else? And I did, and you never look back, 624 00:34:20,570 --> 00:34:23,090 Speaker 1: And it was you know, that was the right piece 625 00:34:23,130 --> 00:34:26,010 Speaker 1: of advice. But I think the two cautional elements about 626 00:34:26,010 --> 00:34:29,010 Speaker 1: that are one the group think like all the people 627 00:34:29,130 --> 00:34:32,410 Speaker 1: my age in my position saw it the same way 628 00:34:32,450 --> 00:34:35,010 Speaker 1: I did, which is, I guess I'm stuck. I guess 629 00:34:35,010 --> 00:34:37,570 Speaker 1: I just have to tough this out. And also that 630 00:34:37,690 --> 00:34:40,810 Speaker 1: I felt so stuck even though in fact I wasn't 631 00:34:40,810 --> 00:34:42,570 Speaker 1: stuck at all. I had loads of options. The economy 632 00:34:42,610 --> 00:34:43,810 Speaker 1: was very strong. I could just go and do it 633 00:34:43,850 --> 00:34:46,570 Speaker 1: whatever I liked, but it didn't seem that way from 634 00:34:46,610 --> 00:34:47,290 Speaker 1: the inside. 635 00:34:48,370 --> 00:34:52,770 Speaker 2: Great. Thanks for letting me come and ask your questions. 636 00:34:52,810 --> 00:34:54,770 Speaker 1: Tim, Can we do it again. I hope we get 637 00:34:54,850 --> 00:34:57,890 Speaker 1: more questions, and you know, i'd love it if you'd 638 00:34:57,930 --> 00:34:58,970 Speaker 1: come back, would you. 639 00:34:59,210 --> 00:35:01,050 Speaker 2: Yes, you know, I'll tell you. A lot of the 640 00:35:01,130 --> 00:35:03,570 Speaker 2: questions this time were sort of about the show and 641 00:35:03,610 --> 00:35:05,210 Speaker 2: the making of the show. And the thing I would 642 00:35:05,250 --> 00:35:08,890 Speaker 2: like to say in terms of request for questions is 643 00:35:09,890 --> 00:35:12,290 Speaker 2: you are a very smart person and you know a lot, 644 00:35:12,370 --> 00:35:15,570 Speaker 2: and you're very good at answering questions, and so I 645 00:35:15,610 --> 00:35:18,770 Speaker 2: would love more questions for you, not about the show 646 00:35:18,810 --> 00:35:22,090 Speaker 2: per se, but that are about the world. Basically, Yeah, 647 00:35:22,370 --> 00:35:25,730 Speaker 2: you're a smart guy. Answer my question about the world. 648 00:35:26,010 --> 00:35:31,130 Speaker 1: Thank you so much, Jacob, Thanks Tim. I hope you 649 00:35:31,250 --> 00:35:34,170 Speaker 1: enjoyed this special Q and a episode of Cautionary Tales. 650 00:35:34,250 --> 00:35:36,690 Speaker 1: We will be back with more shows like this one. 651 00:35:37,010 --> 00:35:39,770 Speaker 1: So if you didn't hear your question answered today, then 652 00:35:39,930 --> 00:35:44,210 Speaker 1: fear not. There will be another opportunity. Email any queries 653 00:35:44,250 --> 00:35:47,690 Speaker 1: you might have, however big or small, to Tales at 654 00:35:47,810 --> 00:35:51,690 Speaker 1: Pushkin dot FM. That's t a l E. S At 655 00:35:51,770 --> 00:35:55,650 Speaker 1: Pushkin dot Fm, and that email address is also in 656 00:35:55,690 --> 00:36:03,330 Speaker 1: the show notes. Cautionary Tales is written by me Tim 657 00:36:03,410 --> 00:36:08,090 Speaker 1: Harford with Andrew Wright. It's produced by Alice Fines with 658 00:36:08,210 --> 00:36:12,610 Speaker 1: support from Edith Ruslo. The sound design and original music 659 00:36:12,810 --> 00:36:16,570 Speaker 1: is the work of Pascal Wise. The show wouldn't have 660 00:36:16,610 --> 00:36:20,090 Speaker 1: been possible without the work of Jacob Weisberg, Ryan Dilley, 661 00:36:20,490 --> 00:36:25,610 Speaker 1: Julia Barton, Greta Cohne, Little Millard, John Schnaz, Carli Migliori, 662 00:36:26,130 --> 00:36:32,210 Speaker 1: Eric Sandler, Maggie Taylor, Nicolmrano and Morgan Ratno. Cautionary Tales 663 00:36:32,330 --> 00:36:35,810 Speaker 1: is a production of Pushkin Industries. If you like the show, 664 00:36:36,210 --> 00:36:39,490 Speaker 1: please remember to share, rate and review. It helps us 665 00:36:39,490 --> 00:36:42,850 Speaker 1: for mysterious reasons, and if you want to hear the show, 666 00:36:43,050 --> 00:36:46,450 Speaker 1: add free sign up for Pushkin Plus on the show 667 00:36:46,530 --> 00:36:51,130 Speaker 1: page and Apple Podcasts, or at Pushkin dot Fm, slash 668 00:36:51,490 --> 00:36:51,810 Speaker 1: plus