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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg p m L Podcast. I'm pim Fox.

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Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa A. Bramowitz. Each day

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Speaker 1: we bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews

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Speaker 1: for you and your money, whether you're at the grocery

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Speaker 1: store or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg p m

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Speaker 1: L Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot com.

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Speaker 1: Four hundred trillion dollars. That is the gap between what

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Speaker 1: pension funds have and what they will need by twenty fifty.

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Speaker 1: Our next guest has been studying the brewing pension crisis,

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Speaker 1: and we're very lucky to have Han Yick, head of

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Speaker 1: Institutional Investors at the World Economic Forum. He has worked

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Speaker 1: in the pension industry on all sides and is intimately

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Speaker 1: aware of this. Han, can you talk about the problem globally?

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Speaker 1: Is it the same everywhere? And our pensions dealing with

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Speaker 1: this by lowering the returns assumptions to increasing the contributions

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Speaker 1: of members. Sure, thanks for having me. I think um

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Speaker 1: First of all, it is a global crisis. We've looked

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Speaker 1: at this analysis on a very global level. Are are

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Speaker 1: We have a project which are running called retirement Investment

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Speaker 1: Systems reform and we're looking and working with countries from

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Speaker 1: around the world. I will say some countries are in

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Speaker 1: better shape than other countries. But overall, if you look

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Speaker 1: at what it means to have the gap, UM you

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Speaker 1: have liabilities and assets. The liabilities are you have retirement

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Speaker 1: aages when pension payments start. And the bad news right

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Speaker 1: now from a pension's perspective is because we're all living longer, Uh,

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Speaker 1: it means that the pension benefits have to last us

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Speaker 1: much much longer. And that's the problem that all countries

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Speaker 1: are facing. You know, longevity is increasing gay for us overall,

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Speaker 1: but from a pension perspective, that's putting strain. If nothing

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Speaker 1: else is changing, it's just math that the amount that

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Speaker 1: we need to UH to account for the amount of

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Speaker 1: money just needs to go up. That money needs come somewhere.

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Speaker 1: Is there is the dependence on defined contribution rather than

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Speaker 1: define benefit plans contributing to this problem. I think the

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Speaker 1: shift from defined benefits to define contribution has caused UM

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Speaker 1: a different a shift in the responsibility of clear tensions. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: So the issue there is that now the individual bears

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Speaker 1: the burden of being their own actuary, being being their

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Speaker 1: own asset manager UM and and the burden of the

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Speaker 1: savings themselves. So that's actually caused quite a bit of

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Speaker 1: of gap as well. So is that considered to be

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Speaker 1: a positive element or a negative element? Um? Uh, I

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Speaker 1: would maybe have a lot of different people who are

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Speaker 1: personally responsible for their own retirement. It gets very difficult

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Speaker 1: to implement any kind of change if, for example, you

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Speaker 1: and people at the World Economic Form and a variety

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Speaker 1: of government officials sit down and figure out a solution

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Speaker 1: that it doesn't it make it more challenging to actually

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Speaker 1: affect any kind of change. I think that's I think

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Speaker 1: that's true. One of the issues is it is a

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Speaker 1: global issue, UM, but the solutions will have to be

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Speaker 1: done at a more regional level. UM. If you look

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Speaker 1: at the U S specifically the four one case situation,

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Speaker 1: there is a little different than the fine contributions schemes

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Speaker 1: in other countries. So, for example, the Netherlands has done

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Speaker 1: a very good job in terms of a collectivized DC

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Speaker 1: plan because mandatory, it's mandatory. UM. Also look at Australia,

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Speaker 1: they have mandatory contributions. Now the word mandatory here in

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Speaker 1: the US not so popular. It's getting exactly so sometimes

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Speaker 1: the solutions are can be difficult politically, but in the US,

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Speaker 1: for example, one of the things that UM that can

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Speaker 1: help is auto enrollment and auto escalation. So the idea

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Speaker 1: still maintain choice, but have people opt out rather than

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Speaker 1: opt in. So I want to talk about the investment

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Speaker 1: strategies of these pensions. So what they do is they

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Speaker 1: take the contributions they get, they invest them in assets

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Speaker 1: like bonds and stocks in private equity, and hope to

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Speaker 1: earn a return in order to meet the seven or

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Speaker 1: eight percent obligations that they need to pay out each year. UM.

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Speaker 1: First of all, some have ratcheted back those expectations for returns,

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Speaker 1: but widely people do not think they've come down enough.

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Speaker 1: How much have you looked into potential losses in some

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Speaker 1: riskier strategies that pensions have been going into in order

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Speaker 1: to get those bigger returns that they are still seeking

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Speaker 1: in other words, like the private equity for example, which

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Speaker 1: firms have a record amount of cash and are investing

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Speaker 1: in companies at peak valuations. Potentially. Yeah, so UM, on

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Speaker 1: our end, we're looking a little more. Uh, I guess

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Speaker 1: a high level than that in terms of UM. In

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Speaker 1: terms of this is the problem these are the steps

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Speaker 1: they are needed to solve it. From the investment strategy perspective,

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Speaker 1: that's something that UM that the individual pension funds will

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Speaker 1: need to tackle. But it's an area that UM that

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Speaker 1: UH will need to be examined because the problem when

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Speaker 1: once you have a gap you have with the liabilities

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Speaker 1: and the assets, it's really the gap sounds like one number,

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Speaker 1: but it's really based on two numbers. I just wrote

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Speaker 1: a blog that the George Georgetown Center for Retirement Initiatives

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Speaker 1: published where I talk about this tale of two numbers. UM.

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Speaker 1: Once you have a gap where the liabilities are higher

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Speaker 1: than the assets, you need to close that which means

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Speaker 1: the assets needs to be growing faster than than the liabilities.

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Speaker 1: And if the liabilities are growing because we're living longer,

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Speaker 1: if nothing else changes on that front, if we don't

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Speaker 1: increase retirement age, if we don't reduce benefits, UM, then

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Speaker 1: you know then the liability will continue to grow at

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Speaker 1: a certain rate. Then we need to increase assets in

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Speaker 1: order to close that gap. UM. Now the problem then

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Speaker 1: becomes what you said, do we go into asset classes

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Speaker 1: that can be potentially riskier but have a potentially greater

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Speaker 1: long term return UM I would argue that steps need

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Speaker 1: to be made on both sides in order to close

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Speaker 1: that gap, because just mathematically it cannot work out if

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Speaker 1: one number is increasing quicker than the other. We're talking

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Speaker 1: about numbers, and I'm wondering whether the benefits that were

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Speaker 1: describing that will not be there if we continue on

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Speaker 1: our current path. Can they in any way be replaced

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Speaker 1: by the actual services that need to be rendered too

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Speaker 1: elderly people, And I mean things like healthcare, shelter, food,

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Speaker 1: and so on. In other words, you put a price

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Speaker 1: on them, but that's really just a mechanism. The actual

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Speaker 1: service itself doesn't have to be priced, does it. Um.

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Speaker 1: That's a great, great question or a great point. UM.

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Speaker 1: I would say that for our analysis, the way we've

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Speaker 1: looked at it is in terms of um UH as

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Speaker 1: a replacement ratio, In terms of UH the fact that

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Speaker 1: you may need a smaller percentage of your current income

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Speaker 1: in order to mean to maintain a certain lifestyle. Now

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Speaker 1: that's UM something that is UH usually good approximation. It

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Speaker 1: allows us to compare country different countries because UM that

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Speaker 1: does factor into account healthcare standards, you know, the things,

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Speaker 1: the cost of living, things like that in different countries.

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Speaker 1: UM in general what's needed though in retirement you cannot

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Speaker 1: separate what's need in retirement with healthcare. UM. That's something

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Speaker 1: we're going to explore in the third phase of the

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Speaker 1: project most likely because UM, the two aren't are definitely linked.

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Speaker 1: If you live longer, what's the quality of life? What's

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Speaker 1: the cost needed for that? And that will play a

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Speaker 1: huge impact on terms of what's needed as a pension.

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Speaker 1: Tell people how they can just learn more about your work. Sure,

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Speaker 1: I would say you can go to the World Economic

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Speaker 1: Form website. We have a page on the Retirement Investment

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Speaker 1: Systems Reform Project. We have a white paper UM and

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Speaker 1: as I mentioned in the Georgetown Center for Retirement Initiatives

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Speaker 1: have a new blog post outlining hopefully in easy language,

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Speaker 1: in terms of what this means is in terms of

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Speaker 1: the gap the tail of two numbers. Thank you very

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Speaker 1: much for being with us, so much appreciated. Han Yak

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Speaker 1: is head of Institutional Investors at the World Economic Forum.

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Speaker 1: And coming up, of course, we have Bloomberg Politics, policy,

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Speaker 1: power and law and Amy Morris. What have you got

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Speaker 1: on tap for us? You know, Facebook's reviewing the invitation

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Speaker 1: for Zuckerberg to testify on Capitol Hill, so we'll talk

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Speaker 1: to Congressman Greg Walden, the lawmaker who extended that invitation.

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Speaker 1: We'll be listening. That's coming up Bloomberg Politics, Policy, power

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Speaker 1: and law. Thanks for listening. I'm Pim Fox along with

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Speaker 1: my co host and colleague Lisa Abramwitz. This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: We are broadcasting from the Quinnipiac Game eight form. Global

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Speaker 1: asset management education is the topic of the day here

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Speaker 1: at the New York Hilton, and coming up there'll be

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Speaker 1: a conversation with Neil Kashkari. He is the Federal Reserve

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Speaker 1: President of the the Federals Bank of Minneapolis, interviewed by our

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Speaker 1: own Kathleen Hayes. Right now we have David Auerlick. He

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Speaker 1: is managing director and special Advisor to the Chairman of

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Speaker 1: GAMCO Assets on the management at Gamco forty billion dollars.

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Speaker 1: But he also happens to hold the title of a

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Speaker 1: Commissioner and Chair of the Investment Committee of the New

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Speaker 1: York State Insurance Fund. Mr rol Like, thank you very

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Speaker 1: much for being here, much appreciated. Tell people what is

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Speaker 1: the remit of the New York State Insurance funds so

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Speaker 1: we understand what we're talking about. Sure, UM, thank you

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Speaker 1: for having me. The New York State Insurance Fund is

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Speaker 1: a hundred and seven year old state agency that is

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Speaker 1: a mono line insurance company UM it UH rights workmen

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Speaker 1: comp insurance policies UH covering approximately thirty seven percent of

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Speaker 1: every worker in New York State UM from large policy

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Speaker 1: holders UM million plus two UH. Most of the policy

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Speaker 1: holders are five ten thousand annually. It's a off budget

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Speaker 1: state agency. It has full time employees. UM seventeen billion

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Speaker 1: dollar fund office is located in fifteen office located in

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Speaker 1: UH in New York throughout New York State. So this

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Speaker 1: is UH. This is an agency that has to have

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Speaker 1: a long term approach and has to meet a certain

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Speaker 1: amount of returns each year to meet potential obligations. You're

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Speaker 1: a few weeks away from changing your investment thesis, your

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Speaker 1: investment strategy. Can you give us a taste of kind

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Speaker 1: of how you're planning to change your allocation? Sure? Just

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Speaker 1: so you understand. So, UM approximately ten or eleven billion

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Speaker 1: dollars is managed internally to meet our liabilities paying insurance claims.

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Speaker 1: The balance is used to provide a backstop in case

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Speaker 1: our actuaries say we need more money in our liability pool,

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Speaker 1: so we can take it from the surplus. So the

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Speaker 1: asset allocation UM is that we are shortly going to

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Speaker 1: complete will provide us with additional diversification within at portfolio.

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Speaker 1: So UM we will expect to see UM investments in

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Speaker 1: alternatives UM broadly speaking, private markets which includes it could

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Speaker 1: be optimist credit, it could be bank loans um UM,

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Speaker 1: it could be private lending strategy increasing allocations, that's correct,

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Speaker 1: Private equity UM could include infrastructure, real estate UM. So

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Speaker 1: those are going to be UM new asset classes for us.

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Speaker 1: So we're going to be one of the We're building

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Speaker 1: out a alternatives portfolio de novo UM and so that's

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Speaker 1: going to be quite an interesting UM undertaking for us.

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Speaker 1: At this event, there are many young people. I'm wondering

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Speaker 1: if you could explain, what is it you would like

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Speaker 1: to communicate to them? What message would you like to

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Speaker 1: leave them with. One of the things that I will

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Speaker 1: be talking about is the perspective of a long term

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Speaker 1: investor UM and how we are UM UM patient. We

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Speaker 1: don't get caught up in UM UH sort of quarterly

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Speaker 1: monthly daily gyrations that we have to be consistent. We

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Speaker 1: have to be UH patient investors. We have to have

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Speaker 1: a diversified portfolio to spread out our risk across UM

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Speaker 1: different environments, through different markets, and hopefully UH engaged them

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Speaker 1: in a dialogue because they are students and I expect

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Speaker 1: them to ask us budget questions. You know, one thing

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Speaker 1: that I thought was interesting as we were talking ahead

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Speaker 1: of this is UH that you are reducing your allocation

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Speaker 1: somewhat too active managers, at least in the large cap space,

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Speaker 1: although replacing that with passive instead. UM I find it

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Speaker 1: interesting is it's basically a bifurcation where you're basically going

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Speaker 1: into passive for the broad market exposure and then trying

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Speaker 1: to increase your exposure to more esoteric markets. Is that

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Speaker 1: basically the broader thesis here UM. I think, UM, what

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Speaker 1: we had experienced over the last ten years is this

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Speaker 1: the market has gone up, and you can capture that

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Speaker 1: in a passive index for a lot less than active management. UM.

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Speaker 1: I don't necessarily believe in that same thesis UM in

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Speaker 1: small and mid cap I think active management UM is

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Speaker 1: adding alpha and adding value. UM. I also think that

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Speaker 1: in a in volatile markets, you need active market, you

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Speaker 1: need active you need active management UM. And UH, so

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Speaker 1: it's it's strategic. It's hard to um uh argue that

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Speaker 1: large cap active managers have been consistently outperforming the benchmark

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Speaker 1: as opposed to passive managers. UM so hopefully, um we

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Speaker 1: still have active on on large cap, but it made

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Speaker 1: sense to have a portion of it managed passively. David

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Speaker 1: our Like, thank you so much for being with us,

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Speaker 1: Have fun on your panel and the best of luck.

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Speaker 1: David our liked Managing director and special advisor to the

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Speaker 1: Chairman for GAMCO, overseeing forty billion dollars. Also commissioner and

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Speaker 1: chair of the Investment Committee for the New York State

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Speaker 1: Insurance Fund. Does buy the dip? Still apply with us

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Speaker 1: to discuss? Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated

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Speaker 1: friend to this show, Phil, thank you so much for

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Speaker 1: being here, pleasure, Thanks for having me back. So we've

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Speaker 1: seen a little bit of red in the past few days. Um.

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Speaker 1: In the past there is a pavlavi in response to

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Speaker 1: immediately buy any dip, no matter how small. Today we

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Speaker 1: saw that in pre market trading was down. It is

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Speaker 1: now up largely except for the NASDAC. Were you in

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Speaker 1: there buying No, we we weren't. And um so yeah,

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Speaker 1: you had this two and a half percent correction yesterday.

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Speaker 1: Everyone's scared to death about the impact on tariffs and

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Speaker 1: trade wars, and that's all reasonable and understands. I think. So, um, now,

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Speaker 1: if if, if you were ready to turn here, today

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Speaker 1: would have been a big move day up and the

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Speaker 1: SMP had a nice you know, green in the futures.

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Speaker 1: But then I guess we're largely flat, maybe fractionally higher.

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Speaker 1: That that tells you that we're not there yet. You know,

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Speaker 1: the kids in the back of the car, are we

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Speaker 1: there yet? We're not there yet. And and from our

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Speaker 1: perspective again, you gotta remember sort of the typical pattern here.

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Speaker 1: You had this nice move up in the beginning of

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Speaker 1: the year, and then this waterfall collapse. We're down twelve

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Speaker 1: and then you bounce and then what you what you

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Speaker 1: need to do technically is sort of retest that low.

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Speaker 1: And we haven't done that retest. That's where we are now.

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Speaker 1: It's that retest process. And and so you know, our

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Speaker 1: best guess is that you probably are looking at a

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Speaker 1: retest at the two day moving average, probably over the

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Speaker 1: course of the next couple of weeks um ahead of

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Speaker 1: the earning season. I think the only season is gonna

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Speaker 1: be pretty good. But that's just that you've got I

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Speaker 1: think a little more downside. I think that two hundred

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Speaker 1: day moving averages around twenty's like okay, But I got

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Speaker 1: the advantage I have the actually charting. Yeah yeah, savant

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Speaker 1: with a computer and yeah right exactly in my dreams.

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Speaker 1: Uh you know, okay, So eight four. So I want

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Speaker 1: to know who do you believe are all the smart

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Speaker 1: sellers or the market participants ince January six that have

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Speaker 1: caused this increase in volatility. It's not like the companies

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Speaker 1: are all different, it's not like the economy is all different.

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Speaker 1: There's got to be something that explains why. When you

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Speaker 1: look at a chart of the S and P five

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Speaker 1: it looks really lovely going up to the twenty sixth

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Speaker 1: of January, and then from then on in it looks

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Speaker 1: like a heart patient who's having a stroke. So understand

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Speaker 1: that the stock market from just before the election back

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Speaker 1: in sixteen through that January aforementioned peak stock market was

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Speaker 1: up like or some ridiculous number. And the reality is

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Speaker 1: that looking at some of the fundamentals, looking at some

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Speaker 1: of the technicals, the move up in January, and I

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Speaker 1: think we were up like seven and a half or

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Speaker 1: eight percent in that first three or four weeks. Was

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Speaker 1: probably ahead of itself, and we were due for a correction,

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Speaker 1: and we were due, frankly for a a more healthy

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Speaker 1: spate of volatility. The VICS last year was was sitting

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Speaker 1: between like eight and ten. You know, I know, but

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Speaker 1: but Phil, but who or is it a machine? Because

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Speaker 1: I understand, you know, it was ahead of itself, but

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Speaker 1: I mean, every time we use those pronouns, there's got

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Speaker 1: to be something behind it. And the market doesn't move

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Speaker 1: all by itself. There's either a human being or there's

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Speaker 1: a decision being taken, or there's a machine that's program

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Speaker 1: that says, you know, when it does X sell or

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Speaker 1: when it does why by so we're we're told, we're

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Speaker 1: hearing that there were some al goes, you know, some

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Speaker 1: of the really smart hedges that were you know, taking

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Speaker 1: some money off the top there back in in late January,

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Speaker 1: and then we dropped twelve percent in a couple of weeks.

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Speaker 1: We were dramatically oversold in our view. We did buy there,

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Speaker 1: uh and we had a nice so eight to ten

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Speaker 1: percent bounce or so, and then we've been uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: sort of patiently waiting for the retest here. So I

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Speaker 1: think we may get more aggressive in a couple of

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Speaker 1: weeks if we get down to this four level as

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Speaker 1: you talk about him. We are expecting that that corporate

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Speaker 1: earnings in the first quarter are going to be very solid.

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Speaker 1: We think the full year is going to be very solid.

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Speaker 1: We're in a hundred and fifty five s and P

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Speaker 1: versus one one thirty last year or thereabouts now. When

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Speaker 1: we raised our number to one fifty five, you know,

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Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter of last year, people thought we

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Speaker 1: were star craving lunatics. Well go back and look at

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Speaker 1: your little computer screen there. The consensus has now moved

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Speaker 1: up to one fifty eight for this year. We're now

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Speaker 1: behind the consensus. So now, well, so what we thought

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Speaker 1: we saw three or four months ago, the rest of

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Speaker 1: the street is starting to catch on, and that is

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Speaker 1: that the fiscal policy initiatives that are playing out I

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Speaker 1: have a positive impact on underlying you know, company and

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Speaker 1: market fundamentals. So we think the market will grind up

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Speaker 1: over the course of the year. But this period right

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Speaker 1: now is ugly. It's uncomfortable. Uh and and this is

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Speaker 1: what we're living through, all right, you know, it's uncomfortable

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Speaker 1: right now Mark Zuckerberg and his dinner time conversations. Facebook

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Speaker 1: shares have declined since March sixte They've declined eleven per cent.

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Speaker 1: Is this a buy an opportunity? Well, I don't follow

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Speaker 1: the stock closely enough to make that judgment. I did

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Speaker 1: hear that them forward multiple on on. A lot of

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Speaker 1: these sort of fang stocks are are down pretty sharply.

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Speaker 1: I thought I heard a comment that that Bill Miller, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, one of the greatest value investors in the

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Speaker 1: game for the last twenty or thirty years now thinks

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Speaker 1: that the stock could be you know, attractive. He maybe

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Speaker 1: you know, dip into toe in the water. So one

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Speaker 1: guy like Bill Miller says this thing is starting to

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Speaker 1: get cheap. You perk up your forty little years and

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Speaker 1: you start to pay attention. So I don't know definitively

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Speaker 1: that we're ready to buy, but you know, if a

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Speaker 1: guy like Bill Miller says it's cheap, then then maybe

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Speaker 1: it's worth taking a look at. Just quickly, if you

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Speaker 1: take a look at the SMP five hundred, go back

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Speaker 1: to this time last year, we are up thirty Okay,

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Speaker 1: uh that is that? Okay? Can you live with that, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I could certainly live with that. And from here we

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Speaker 1: think we could do mid teens over the course of

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Speaker 1: this year and next year. We're still a thirty one

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Speaker 1: hundred this year, thirty five hundred next year, no recession

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Speaker 1: before probably twenty twenty late one, early on the horizon.

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Speaker 1: So we think that that, you know, you can still

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Speaker 1: make some some pretty good money here before we have

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Speaker 1: to worry about the positioning more defensively. Thank you very

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Speaker 1: much for being with us. Expert Savanta phil Orlando, chief

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Speaker 1: equity market strategist at Federated. You're listening to Bloomberg Market

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Speaker 1: Time pim Fox along with Lisa Bramwitz. This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: We're broadcasting live from the Quinnipiac Game eight form educating

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Speaker 1: future financial professionals here at the New York Hilton in

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Speaker 1: Midtown Manhattan. And one of the things we're gonna have

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Speaker 1: to deal with this political risk, Well, how do you

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Speaker 1: factor in the resignation of a president's attorney or indeed

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Speaker 1: even a replacement as a national security advisor. Well, perhaps

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Speaker 1: the first thing might be to call Mark Rosenberg. He

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Speaker 1: is the chief executive of geo quant and he can

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Speaker 1: be followed on Twitter at geo underscore Quant. Mark Rosenberg,

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Speaker 1: thank you very much for being with us. Tell us

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Speaker 1: exactly what is geo quant What are you trying to accomplish?

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Speaker 1: We what we do is generate high frequency political risk

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Speaker 1: indicators that measure political risk across the arrangements vectors at

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Speaker 1: the same frequency as financial market. So it's increasingly accepted

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Speaker 1: that politics pack markets. Um. Political risk is rarely quantified,

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Speaker 1: and if it is, it's really done at the same

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Speaker 1: frequency as as the market that it impacts. So what

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Speaker 1: geo quant does is produced daily as objective as possible

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Speaker 1: political risk indicators across each country we cover. Mark, it's

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Speaker 1: got to be tough to objectively quantify the risk. Before

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Speaker 1: I get into just the specifics of how you do that,

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Speaker 1: please bring us up to date. Where are we now?

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Speaker 1: We have a lot of turmoil. People are talking about

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Speaker 1: the change in the National Security Advisor in Washington, the tariffs. Uh,

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Speaker 1: how much has your geo political risk indicators skyrocketed in

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Speaker 1: the US? Well, frankly, the indicators haven't moved. All risk

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Speaker 1: indicators are off, of course, but they haven't moved that

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Speaker 1: much simply because um, the political political risk indicators have increased.

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Speaker 1: So much up to this point. I think these events

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Speaker 1: are really a symptom rather than a cause of political

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Speaker 1: risk in the United States. Political risk is in building

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Speaker 1: up for quite a while, and I think up until now,

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Speaker 1: or up until that's at least the first court of

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Speaker 1: this year, equity markets are they're kind of UM shielded

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Speaker 1: from the impacts UM, and now that's no longer the case.

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Speaker 1: So I think what we're seeing here, the civilian, the

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Speaker 1: Trump administration, the the hawkish ad hoc policy moves, these

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Speaker 1: are symptoms of a significant build up in political risky

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Speaker 1: United States over the past eighteen months that are now

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Speaker 1: coming to their well mark. To follow up on a

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Speaker 1: Lisa's question, so how do you actually do this and

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Speaker 1: how do you assign some statistical measure to what is

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Speaker 1: in many cases a qualitative issue. Sure, well, political scientists

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Speaker 1: has made significant strides and recent heurs in terms of

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Speaker 1: quantifying quantifying previously qualitative concepts. So we do have models

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Speaker 1: to use UM just as you as you would in

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Speaker 1: economics and finance, in order to systematize and quantify UM

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Speaker 1: the political factors that drive markets and economies. And in addition,

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Speaker 1: we have new technology to UM scrape in h what

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Speaker 1: would be an example I understand all this, but what

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Speaker 1: would be an example of of of putting a a

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Speaker 1: numerical uh point on a score on on something that

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Speaker 1: is h Let's say the change in the head of

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Speaker 1: the president national Security advisor. How do you turn that

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Speaker 1: into a number? So we we measure a few things

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Speaker 1: relevant to that. We measure geo political risk, We measure

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Speaker 1: the capacity of the state, We measure the level of

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Speaker 1: support in the society for the government. So if that

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Speaker 1: move impacts any of those indicators aren't adjust accordingly. So,

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Speaker 1: for instance, our risk indicator for the United States increase

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Speaker 1: about zero point nine over the past day given recent

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Speaker 1: events um and and that's a function of all the

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Speaker 1: different elements of politics that are now riskier um as

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Speaker 1: a result of re an event. As I said, it

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Speaker 1: is not that big because we're already at such a

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Speaker 1: high level of this for the United States. If you

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Speaker 1: look at our indicator on your Bloomberg, you'll see relative

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Speaker 1: to history, the United States is already um uh quite high.

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Speaker 1: So these events don't move they need all that much.

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Speaker 1: So I'm wondering. You know, there's been a big question

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Speaker 1: as to how much markets are factoring in this political risk.

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Speaker 1: So what's the answer. Well, what we found up till

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Speaker 1: now is that photocals because really has been reflected in

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Speaker 1: in tarrency markets in particular dollar and and and as

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Speaker 1: well asn't rising markets. And I think what you've seen

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Speaker 1: over the past quarter is the increasing reflection of photocalist

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Speaker 1: and equity markets UM. I think initially as a response

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Speaker 1: to UM concerns about inflation, which I think we're alternately

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Speaker 1: driven by, you know, a pro cyclical fiscal policy and

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Speaker 1: concerned about an overheating economy. And the recontel have also

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Speaker 1: been politically driven a nature around central trade policy policy

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Speaker 1: shifts that are more protectionists, around the Muller investigation. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think what you're seeing is that equity markets are

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Speaker 1: not waking up to the political risk that have already

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Speaker 1: been self and currency and bond market. Mark Rosenberg, thank

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Speaker 1: you so much for being with us. Mark Rosenberg, chief

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Speaker 1: executive officer and co founder of geo quant. Their index

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Speaker 1: seeks to measure political risk from both the perhaps personnel changes,

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Speaker 1: but also from a voter partisan level. Thanks for listening

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Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg P and L podcast. You can subscribe

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00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 1: and listen to interviews at Apple podcasts, SoundCloud, or whatever

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00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm pim Fox. I'm on Twitter

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Speaker 1: at pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at Lisa Abramowits one

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Speaker 1: before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide on

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio to te