1 00:00:00,480 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: Yay. That's when you have fun when you're kicking somebody's 2 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:10,000 Speaker 1: ass and they're sucking for when I was good. 3 00:00:10,560 --> 00:00:20,040 Speaker 2: Ready, Go'm bounder on the baseline fob he yeah, way 4 00:00:20,040 --> 00:00:31,120 Speaker 2: outside there it is. 5 00:00:31,520 --> 00:00:37,160 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by Bett MGM. 6 00:00:37,440 --> 00:00:41,120 Speaker 1: I'm your host, Doctor Nick Giffen, predictive analyst here at 7 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:45,279 Speaker 1: Action Network, and I'm presenting you with my third annual 8 00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:49,920 Speaker 1: Giffin's Guide to March Madness, where we go over my 9 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:54,560 Speaker 1: money line rollover strategy and identify eight teams that I 10 00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:57,560 Speaker 1: think have a good chance of making it pretty far 11 00:00:57,800 --> 00:01:01,480 Speaker 1: in this year's NC double a ornament. As a reminder 12 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:04,920 Speaker 1: if you don't know what the money line rollover strategy is. 13 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:08,800 Speaker 1: The idea is that there are four regions, and then 14 00:01:08,800 --> 00:01:11,559 Speaker 1: if we split those regions in half, there are eight 15 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:15,480 Speaker 1: sub regions or octanse if you will, in the bracket, 16 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:18,600 Speaker 1: and ideally, we would like to choose one team from 17 00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:20,800 Speaker 1: both the top and the bottom half of each region 18 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:24,800 Speaker 1: to advance to the Elite eight. And what we'll do 19 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:28,240 Speaker 1: is we'll take an initial bet, let's say twenty five dollars, 20 00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:30,880 Speaker 1: and bet that team to win on the money line, 21 00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:33,959 Speaker 1: and if they win, we'll take whatever our winnings were 22 00:01:34,040 --> 00:01:37,200 Speaker 1: plus the original twenty five dollars bet and bet them 23 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:39,039 Speaker 1: again in the next round. And the idea is to 24 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:41,319 Speaker 1: do this both in the first round, the second round 25 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:44,280 Speaker 1: and in the sweet sixteen and identify a team to 26 00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:47,319 Speaker 1: make it to the Elite eight. And typically we do 27 00:01:47,480 --> 00:01:51,480 Speaker 1: this with underdog seeds five seeds or longer, because they'll 28 00:01:51,520 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 1: eventually face a one seed or a two seed most 29 00:01:54,720 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 1: likely at some point, given they'll be either in the 30 00:01:58,000 --> 00:02:00,200 Speaker 1: top half with one seed or the bottom half of 31 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 1: a region with the two seed in the bracket. So 32 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:06,360 Speaker 1: sometimes we'll have a little bit of an exception to 33 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:09,480 Speaker 1: this rule. We may, in certain spots want to bet 34 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:11,919 Speaker 1: a team to cover the spread early on if they 35 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:14,240 Speaker 1: are favored. That way, we get a little bit better 36 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:16,799 Speaker 1: odds by making a spread bet instead of something like 37 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:20,240 Speaker 1: a minus two hundred money line bet, and the other 38 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:24,240 Speaker 1: option would be well. Occasionally, there are octants of this 39 00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:27,600 Speaker 1: bracket where I just don't like any of the situations 40 00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:30,160 Speaker 1: to pick an underdog team, so we may double up 41 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:33,400 Speaker 1: on one of those sides of the regions there and 42 00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:37,360 Speaker 1: pick two teams from the same sub region area, and 43 00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:40,400 Speaker 1: that way, if those two teams face each other before 44 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:43,360 Speaker 1: the Sweet sixteen, or I should say before the Elite eight, 45 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 1: we'll cash out both teams and make a profit right 46 00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:48,400 Speaker 1: there on two of our teams if they end up 47 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:51,919 Speaker 1: facing each other. So those are really the only exceptions 48 00:02:51,960 --> 00:02:55,399 Speaker 1: to the rule. Ideally we choose one team per Octant 49 00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:58,960 Speaker 1: and roll them up moneyline the Sweet sixteen. But a 50 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:02,640 Speaker 1: couple of exceptions, and that's really it. If you, you know, 51 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:05,120 Speaker 1: want to throw twenty five bucks on eight teams, that's 52 00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:08,960 Speaker 1: two hundred dollars or whatever suits your personal bank role. 53 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:12,640 Speaker 1: But at that point you're only risking two hundred dollars 54 00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:15,799 Speaker 1: to have the potential to have some big upside. I've 55 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:18,480 Speaker 1: done this several years in the past. Before I joined 56 00:03:18,560 --> 00:03:22,200 Speaker 1: Action Network, I had several profitable years, and then in 57 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:24,120 Speaker 1: the two years with Action Network. 58 00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:25,280 Speaker 3: One year didn't go so well. 59 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:28,000 Speaker 1: Last year went a lot better and we had a 60 00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:31,359 Speaker 1: lot of fun sweating some teams, making some good runs here. 61 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:34,600 Speaker 1: So hopefully we can identify some winners this year. With 62 00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:37,800 Speaker 1: that said, it is time to get to the picks, 63 00:03:38,200 --> 00:03:40,880 Speaker 1: and I'm going to start in the South region. And 64 00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:43,880 Speaker 1: I'm starting here because this is the most unique region 65 00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:47,720 Speaker 1: for me we've got a double up scenario, and we 66 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 1: have actually a team playing in the first four on 67 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:55,560 Speaker 1: Wednesday night in Dayton that I will be picking from 68 00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:56,160 Speaker 1: this region. 69 00:03:56,280 --> 00:03:57,600 Speaker 3: So let's start with them. 70 00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:00,640 Speaker 1: I'm going to take the ten seed from this the 71 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:05,640 Speaker 1: Colorado Buffaloes, and I am going to take them money 72 00:04:05,680 --> 00:04:09,240 Speaker 1: line versus Boise State, and then again try to roll 73 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:11,800 Speaker 1: them up on the money line in their future games. 74 00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:14,680 Speaker 1: So all we need here because we're taking a team 75 00:04:14,680 --> 00:04:17,720 Speaker 1: from the first four. We don't need Colorado to make 76 00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:19,520 Speaker 1: the Elite eight. We just need them to make the 77 00:04:19,520 --> 00:04:22,719 Speaker 1: Sweet sixteen. That'll be three games for them on this 78 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:28,080 Speaker 1: money line rollover strategy. So I actually have Colorado power 79 00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:30,599 Speaker 1: rated more like a six seed. They're the twenty second 80 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:33,520 Speaker 1: best team in my power ratings in this NCAA tournament, 81 00:04:33,680 --> 00:04:35,240 Speaker 1: which would place them more like. 82 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:37,320 Speaker 3: A six seed than a ten seed. 83 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:40,080 Speaker 1: So while they're opponent Boise State is fairly seeded as 84 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:44,720 Speaker 1: a ten seed, there's extra value down the road when Colorado, 85 00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:48,280 Speaker 1: if they beat Boise State, will then face seven seed Florida, 86 00:04:48,640 --> 00:04:50,880 Speaker 1: and so you could roll over money line against seven 87 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:55,839 Speaker 1: seed Florida, and then finally, should Colorado beat Florida, they're 88 00:04:56,000 --> 00:04:59,599 Speaker 1: most likely to fade two seed Marquette. But I actually 89 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:03,000 Speaker 1: have mark CT seeded more like a borderline three four 90 00:05:03,160 --> 00:05:07,400 Speaker 1: seed in that three seed range there, Plus their star 91 00:05:07,480 --> 00:05:11,080 Speaker 1: player Tyler Kohlik coming back from injury may not be 92 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:15,040 Speaker 1: one hundred percent. So I really like Colorado, who's probably 93 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:18,080 Speaker 1: not getting enough credit for being a ten seed, whereas 94 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 1: I think they should be a lot higher seeded if 95 00:05:21,160 --> 00:05:24,000 Speaker 1: things went strictly by power ratings in terms of the seeds, 96 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:24,760 Speaker 1: which they don't. 97 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:26,440 Speaker 3: So we're gonna take. 98 00:05:26,240 --> 00:05:29,279 Speaker 1: Colorado, who is one of my top twenty four twenty 99 00:05:29,320 --> 00:05:33,120 Speaker 1: five teams to win three games, betting them all on 100 00:05:33,160 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 1: the money line. There in the South region, Now I 101 00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:39,839 Speaker 1: did mention this is a double up spot because I 102 00:05:39,880 --> 00:05:44,159 Speaker 1: am also going to roll with my North Carolina State Wolfpack. Yes, 103 00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:46,960 Speaker 1: that's where I went to grad school. As the eleven 104 00:05:47,040 --> 00:05:51,160 Speaker 1: seed in this region and in a similar vein to Colorado, 105 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:55,440 Speaker 1: NC State has a relatively nice hat to the sweet sixteen, 106 00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:57,920 Speaker 1: where they could end up facing Colorado or even the 107 00:05:57,960 --> 00:06:02,279 Speaker 1: Elite eight thanks to this essentially a fully overseeded region 108 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:06,480 Speaker 1: pathway with Texas Tech, Kentucky, and Marquette. The six seed 109 00:06:06,640 --> 00:06:09,560 Speaker 1: Texas Tech a little bit overseeded. I have them as 110 00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:11,960 Speaker 1: the first seven seed. Now that's probably a little unfair 111 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:14,719 Speaker 1: given that they've had some injuries they've dealt with and 112 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 1: their players were in Washington and Darien Williams will be returning. 113 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:23,000 Speaker 1: But even if they're fairly seeded, looking ahead, Kentucky, a 114 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:26,040 Speaker 1: three seed I have graded more like a five seed, 115 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:29,240 Speaker 1: definitely is the worst three seed, and then Marquette again 116 00:06:29,279 --> 00:06:31,960 Speaker 1: the worst two seeds. So there is a really nice 117 00:06:32,279 --> 00:06:35,840 Speaker 1: path for NC State to face, you know, some six 118 00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:39,719 Speaker 1: three and two seeds, where whereas if they're in other regions, 119 00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:42,560 Speaker 1: they'd have much tougher six to three and two seeds 120 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:45,320 Speaker 1: than they do here. So I definitely think it's a 121 00:06:45,320 --> 00:06:49,200 Speaker 1: spot where NC State, after running the ACC gauntlet of Duke, 122 00:06:49,440 --> 00:06:52,480 Speaker 1: Virginia and North Carolina to win the ACC title, there's 123 00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:54,680 Speaker 1: no reason they can't compete with any of these other teams. 124 00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:57,599 Speaker 1: So I'm gonna take North Carolina on the money line 125 00:06:57,600 --> 00:06:59,600 Speaker 1: all the way to the Elite eight, unless, of course, 126 00:06:59,839 --> 00:07:02,600 Speaker 1: they face Colorado in the sweet sixteen, in which case 127 00:07:02,960 --> 00:07:06,799 Speaker 1: we'd cash out both bets going to the other side 128 00:07:06,880 --> 00:07:11,000 Speaker 1: the top half of the South Region. My third pick 129 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:14,560 Speaker 1: is going to be the Nebraska corn Huskers as the 130 00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:17,800 Speaker 1: eight seed there in the top half of the region 131 00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:20,680 Speaker 1: where they could potentially face Houston. 132 00:07:20,880 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 3: So I do have. 133 00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:25,320 Speaker 1: Nebraska a little bit underseeded, more like a seven seed 134 00:07:25,360 --> 00:07:29,600 Speaker 1: per my Power ratings, while I have you know, Texas 135 00:07:29,640 --> 00:07:32,120 Speaker 1: A and M kind of tied for the worst nine 136 00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:35,600 Speaker 1: seed with Nevada. So I'll definitely back the Huskers money 137 00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:39,120 Speaker 1: line versus Texas A and M, and then they would 138 00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 1: get a matchup against one seed Houston. And this is 139 00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:45,840 Speaker 1: specifically why I'm picking Nebraska here because I think they 140 00:07:45,880 --> 00:07:50,760 Speaker 1: give Houston a potential upset scenario matchup. So this is 141 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:54,320 Speaker 1: one is based off the matchup here. I liken this 142 00:07:54,560 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 1: a little bit to UVA UNBC, with Nebraska being a 143 00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:03,560 Speaker 1: much better Both UNBC and Nebraska had a forty four 144 00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:07,680 Speaker 1: percent plus three point attempt to field goal attempt ratio 145 00:08:07,760 --> 00:08:10,560 Speaker 1: means meaning they're chucking up a whole lot of three pointers, 146 00:08:10,880 --> 00:08:15,239 Speaker 1: whereas Houston and Virginia both slow paced teams that allow 147 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:20,600 Speaker 1: above a forty percent three point attempt ratio, so a 148 00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:24,240 Speaker 1: lot of threes could really influence this one. And with 149 00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:27,760 Speaker 1: the favored team being the slower paced team, Houston and 150 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:31,040 Speaker 1: UVA back in that UNBC game. This is a spot 151 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:35,240 Speaker 1: where fewer possessions. If Nebraska catches fire, it may be 152 00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:37,720 Speaker 1: hard for Houston to come back, kind of like we 153 00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:41,840 Speaker 1: saw with Virginia against UNBC, or even just for Nebraska 154 00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:44,200 Speaker 1: to keep it close and maybe steal a game winner 155 00:08:44,960 --> 00:08:48,160 Speaker 1: late in the game. So I'm gonna take Nebraska here, 156 00:08:48,480 --> 00:08:51,000 Speaker 1: and then should they pull off the upset against Houston, 157 00:08:51,240 --> 00:08:53,360 Speaker 1: they certainly would have a tough game against you know, 158 00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:56,040 Speaker 1: maybe maybe a Duke or Wisconsin. But there's also a 159 00:08:56,080 --> 00:08:58,800 Speaker 1: non zero chance they maybe face somebody like a James 160 00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:02,120 Speaker 1: Madison University or some like that. So Nebraska is going 161 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:05,200 Speaker 1: to be my third pick for this money line rollover 162 00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:07,960 Speaker 1: strategy on the Gift and Guide to March Madness, which 163 00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:12,560 Speaker 1: rounds out the South region. A reminder, this podcast is 164 00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:17,440 Speaker 1: presented by North Carolina's newest sportsbook, bet MGM use bonus 165 00:09:17,440 --> 00:09:20,120 Speaker 1: code action when signing up to get one hundred and 166 00:09:20,120 --> 00:09:23,120 Speaker 1: fifty dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars 167 00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:29,640 Speaker 1: for new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, 168 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:34,120 Speaker 1: New Jersey, North Carolina Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, 169 00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:38,040 Speaker 1: and Wyoming. Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one 170 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:44,320 Speaker 1: or older. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. Moving 171 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 1: on to the next region, I'm going to go to 172 00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:49,199 Speaker 1: another bit of a unique region here, and that'll be 173 00:09:49,240 --> 00:09:52,720 Speaker 1: the Midwest region because I only have one pick in 174 00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:56,600 Speaker 1: this region. Remember, we doubled up on a different octint, 175 00:09:56,800 --> 00:09:58,960 Speaker 1: so now we have to find another octant that I'm 176 00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:01,440 Speaker 1: not going to use, and I think the Midwest region 177 00:10:01,880 --> 00:10:04,680 Speaker 1: is the perfect spot to not do that. I'm going 178 00:10:04,720 --> 00:10:08,640 Speaker 1: to pass on making a pick on the Purdue half 179 00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:13,120 Speaker 1: of the Midwest region. I'm not really sold on Gonzaga 180 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:17,480 Speaker 1: or TCU or Samford, you know, to really get past 181 00:10:17,800 --> 00:10:21,320 Speaker 1: or McNee state to get past Perdue in this spot. 182 00:10:21,440 --> 00:10:24,120 Speaker 3: So we're just gonna avoid that side of the Midwest. 183 00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 1: But on the bottom half of the Midwest region, this 184 00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:29,600 Speaker 1: is an interesting one. I'm gonna take the South Carolina 185 00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:32,920 Speaker 1: game Cocks as the sixth seed. Now, I originally had 186 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:36,000 Speaker 1: Oregon penciled in here, and I certainly do not mind 187 00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:38,400 Speaker 1: if you'd rather go with Oregon in this spot than 188 00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:39,120 Speaker 1: South Carolina. 189 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:40,760 Speaker 3: I wouldn't blame you one bit if you. 190 00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:42,400 Speaker 1: Wanted to take the gift and guide to March Madness, 191 00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:44,360 Speaker 1: switch it up a little bit and go Oregon in 192 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:44,880 Speaker 1: this spot. 193 00:10:45,360 --> 00:10:46,280 Speaker 3: Totally fine with that. 194 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:49,800 Speaker 1: But I'm looking ahead to the second round here because 195 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:53,480 Speaker 1: I have South Carolina and Oregon almost essentially a coin flip. 196 00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:55,280 Speaker 1: So you'd say, well, in that case, why aren't we 197 00:10:55,280 --> 00:10:57,560 Speaker 1: getting a little bit better odds on Oregon. Why wouldn't 198 00:10:57,600 --> 00:10:59,559 Speaker 1: you take Oregon. It's a little bit better value for 199 00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:01,800 Speaker 1: the money line. But again, to me, this is all 200 00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:05,880 Speaker 1: about the second round here. I don't think Oregon's neutral 201 00:11:05,920 --> 00:11:11,440 Speaker 1: pace and poor shooting defense, while not eliminating the three pointer, 202 00:11:11,480 --> 00:11:15,800 Speaker 1: which Creighton loves to shoot, matches up very well against Creyton. Instead, 203 00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:20,920 Speaker 1: with South Carolina we get a really tough matchup for Creighton. 204 00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:24,120 Speaker 1: Potentially the game Cocks play at the ninth slowest pace 205 00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:27,000 Speaker 1: in the nation, meaning fewer possessions, so Creyton doesn't get 206 00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:31,880 Speaker 1: to realize their efficiency on as many possessions. And also 207 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:36,200 Speaker 1: South Carolina they allow three point attempts at the twenty 208 00:11:36,360 --> 00:11:39,600 Speaker 1: fifth lowest rate in the nation, which of course is 209 00:11:39,640 --> 00:11:44,439 Speaker 1: what Creighton thrives on, so that will certainly try to 210 00:11:44,480 --> 00:11:47,280 Speaker 1: take away one aspect of Creighton's game where they like 211 00:11:47,360 --> 00:11:50,720 Speaker 1: to use these high efficiency shots, because the three point 212 00:11:50,760 --> 00:11:53,160 Speaker 1: ball and shots close to the rim are the most 213 00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:56,920 Speaker 1: efficient shots in basketball. So if South Carolina is eliminating 214 00:11:56,920 --> 00:11:59,360 Speaker 1: one of Creighton's strengths, that certainly can help. 215 00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:00,000 Speaker 3: In South Carolina. 216 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:03,320 Speaker 1: Of themselves, they attempt their own threes at the eighty 217 00:12:03,360 --> 00:12:05,560 Speaker 1: fifth highest rate in the nation, and while Creighton also 218 00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:08,080 Speaker 1: tries to eliminate the three, if South Carolina is able 219 00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:10,760 Speaker 1: to make some of those, certainly I think they can 220 00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:13,520 Speaker 1: make it a competitive game against the number three seed 221 00:12:13,559 --> 00:12:16,000 Speaker 1: in Creighton. From there, South Carolina would be in line 222 00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:21,240 Speaker 1: for a third meeting with SECFO Tennessee. These two teams 223 00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:24,000 Speaker 1: split the regular season Tennessee and South Carolina, with each 224 00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:27,520 Speaker 1: team winning on the opposing team's home court. So third 225 00:12:27,559 --> 00:12:30,439 Speaker 1: time for these two teams to meet, you certainly got 226 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:33,440 Speaker 1: a fancy South Carolina would least have a shot there. 227 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:36,120 Speaker 1: So that is my only pick for the Midwest Region. 228 00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:39,760 Speaker 1: We're rolling South Carolina up on the money line until 229 00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:44,160 Speaker 1: they make the Elite eight. Two regions down, two regions 230 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:47,760 Speaker 1: to go, We're gonna head over to the West Region, 231 00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:51,800 Speaker 1: where once again I'm gonna have another double up spot. 232 00:12:51,920 --> 00:12:56,319 Speaker 1: So we're going to start with the Michigan State Spartans 233 00:12:56,400 --> 00:13:00,440 Speaker 1: as the nine seed. Michigan State is a much better 234 00:13:00,480 --> 00:13:05,280 Speaker 1: team than their seed implies. I actually have them power 235 00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:08,200 Speaker 1: ranked more like a borderline five or six seed. And 236 00:13:08,640 --> 00:13:11,000 Speaker 1: you know, while the committee did them no favors and 237 00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:14,080 Speaker 1: pairing them up against the difficult eight seed in Mississippi States, 238 00:13:14,400 --> 00:13:18,040 Speaker 1: I do have the Spartans favored here. Plus, one thing 239 00:13:18,080 --> 00:13:20,120 Speaker 1: that I always look at as a predictive analyst is 240 00:13:20,160 --> 00:13:22,920 Speaker 1: what is the most predictive metrics And one of the 241 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:26,000 Speaker 1: things that is very common out there in the research. 242 00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:29,400 Speaker 1: If you look at the March Madness literature out there, 243 00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:35,240 Speaker 1: preseason rankings matter a lot. They certainly provide a measure 244 00:13:35,280 --> 00:13:39,040 Speaker 1: of underlying talent. Michigan State was ranked fourth in the 245 00:13:39,040 --> 00:13:43,280 Speaker 1: preseason and Mississippi State was ranked thirty fourth by the voters. 246 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:47,040 Speaker 1: Even on ken Palm, Michigan State was thirteenth and Mississippi 247 00:13:47,040 --> 00:13:50,040 Speaker 1: State was twenty seventh. So I do give Michigan State 248 00:13:50,200 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 1: a pretty solid edge here, not only when you take 249 00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:55,360 Speaker 1: my current power ratings, but regress them a little bit 250 00:13:55,400 --> 00:13:58,959 Speaker 1: towards their preseason ranking as well. And what that does 251 00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:01,679 Speaker 1: shows Michigan State has a lot of upside that given 252 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:04,839 Speaker 1: how highly ranked they were in the preseason. So then 253 00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:08,600 Speaker 1: they would face potentially the number one seed in that region, 254 00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:12,840 Speaker 1: the North Carolina tar Heels, and you know, as the 255 00:14:12,920 --> 00:14:15,920 Speaker 1: slower paced team between Michigan State and Mississippi State. I 256 00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:17,880 Speaker 1: do like the fact that Michigan State's a little slower 257 00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:20,560 Speaker 1: paced maybe a little bit more likely to keep it 258 00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:23,640 Speaker 1: close and upset North Carolina in the second round, who 259 00:14:23,680 --> 00:14:26,040 Speaker 1: I have ranked as the worst one seed and actually 260 00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:28,760 Speaker 1: would be more like a borderline two or three seed 261 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:33,320 Speaker 1: per my power rankings. And then from there Michigan State 262 00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:37,000 Speaker 1: potentially face Alabama. But Alabama they rely on the three pointer, 263 00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:39,120 Speaker 1: just like Creighton does, and if they have an offshooting 264 00:14:39,160 --> 00:14:42,480 Speaker 1: day from downtown and with Michigan States upside potential, I 265 00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:45,680 Speaker 1: can see a path to the Elite eight from Michigan. 266 00:14:45,800 --> 00:14:47,600 Speaker 1: So we're gonna roll to the Michigan States. So we're 267 00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:50,480 Speaker 1: gonna roll with the Spartans on the money line all 268 00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:54,080 Speaker 1: the way to the Elite eight unless they face my 269 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:57,200 Speaker 1: next team, and this one I'm excited about that is 270 00:14:57,280 --> 00:15:01,360 Speaker 1: the Grand Canyon Antelopes, who are the twelve seed in 271 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:05,479 Speaker 1: the West Region. This is a spot where I'm specifically 272 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:10,120 Speaker 1: targeting this first round matchup for Grand Canyon against Saint Mary's. 273 00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:15,360 Speaker 1: If we look at the four factors of basketball shooting, rebounding, 274 00:15:15,720 --> 00:15:18,800 Speaker 1: forcing turnovers, and committing fouls, those are the four major 275 00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:23,120 Speaker 1: factors when evaluating a team's efficiency. Saint Mary's does two 276 00:15:23,120 --> 00:15:26,600 Speaker 1: of these things at the elite of elitist level. They 277 00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:29,680 Speaker 1: are an amazing rebounding team, both in the offensive and 278 00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:32,800 Speaker 1: defensive glass. But I'm specifically focusing on Saint Mary's defense here. 279 00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:36,040 Speaker 1: There are number three in the nation in defensive rebounding 280 00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:39,480 Speaker 1: percentage and Saint Mary's is top three in the nation 281 00:15:39,840 --> 00:15:43,360 Speaker 1: in effective field goal percent defense, meaning they're forcing teams 282 00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:47,440 Speaker 1: to missshots. Well. The problem is for Saint Mary's, Grand 283 00:15:47,520 --> 00:15:51,200 Speaker 1: Canyon is actually a terrible matchup from that regard, because 284 00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:53,920 Speaker 1: in the other two areas, Saint Mary's is just an 285 00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:58,600 Speaker 1: average team and Grand Canyon draws fouls at a top 286 00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 1: ten adjusted rate in the nation when I adjust for 287 00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:06,480 Speaker 1: opposing team's foul rates. So Grand Canyon could get to 288 00:16:06,520 --> 00:16:08,440 Speaker 1: the line a lot in this matchup. And what happens 289 00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:11,080 Speaker 1: if you're getting to the line against Saint Mary's. Well, 290 00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:14,440 Speaker 1: they can't defend your free throws, so you get a 291 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:17,360 Speaker 1: seventy five plus percent free thrower shooting team that isn't 292 00:16:17,400 --> 00:16:20,160 Speaker 1: being defended all of a sudden. That negates Saint Mary's 293 00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 1: advantage of defending shots. And because you're shooting free throws 294 00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:28,480 Speaker 1: at a seventy five percent plus make rate, all of 295 00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:31,920 Speaker 1: a sudden, Saint Mary's rebounding advantage gets negated. So there 296 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:36,120 Speaker 1: are two incredibly strong areas get fully negated here by 297 00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:39,040 Speaker 1: the way Grand Canyon plays offense. And you know Saint 298 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:40,920 Speaker 1: Mary's a five seed. Let's look at another five seed 299 00:16:40,960 --> 00:16:44,520 Speaker 1: in this tournament, San Diego State. Well, Grand Canyon played 300 00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:48,680 Speaker 1: San Diego State and drew a sixty two percent free 301 00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:52,560 Speaker 1: throw attempt a field goals helped ratio against San Diego State, 302 00:16:52,800 --> 00:16:55,480 Speaker 1: going twenty three for thirty one from the foul line 303 00:16:55,640 --> 00:16:57,560 Speaker 1: and upset San Diego State. 304 00:16:57,680 --> 00:16:58,560 Speaker 3: Well, this is the. 305 00:16:58,520 --> 00:17:02,240 Speaker 1: Exact same power raiding range as San Diego State with 306 00:17:02,280 --> 00:17:04,480 Speaker 1: Saint Mary's, and I think it affects Saint Mary's even 307 00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:07,359 Speaker 1: more in this matchup. So I love Grand Canyon to 308 00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:10,199 Speaker 1: get past Saint Mary's in round one. From there you 309 00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:12,680 Speaker 1: get Alabama. I talked about them. All they need is 310 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:15,480 Speaker 1: an erratic three point shooting day and you're suddenly in 311 00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:19,520 Speaker 1: it with a shot. Then you gotta face potentially North Carolina. 312 00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:22,480 Speaker 1: But if you're facing Michigan State, we cash both out 313 00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:25,160 Speaker 1: in the sweet sixteen, both Saint Mary or sorry, both 314 00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:27,920 Speaker 1: Grand Canyon and Michigan State out in the sweet sixteen. 315 00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:30,200 Speaker 1: Otherwise you face you and see who again I mentioned 316 00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:33,080 Speaker 1: is the weakest one seed. So I'm playing Grand Canyon 317 00:17:33,119 --> 00:17:35,479 Speaker 1: on the money line all the way to the Elite eight, 318 00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:38,679 Speaker 1: unless they face Michigan State in sweet sixteen, which in 319 00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:42,760 Speaker 1: that case we're cashing both out. On the other half 320 00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:46,520 Speaker 1: of the West region here, my seventh overall pick for 321 00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:49,200 Speaker 1: the Gift and Guide to March Madness is the New 322 00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:52,040 Speaker 1: Mexico Lobos. They are the eleven seed in this region, 323 00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:54,919 Speaker 1: and I actually have New Mexico, as does the market, 324 00:17:55,440 --> 00:17:59,800 Speaker 1: favored over Clemson, So I think this is just a 325 00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:02,439 Speaker 1: where we're gonna want to take an eleven seed against 326 00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:04,720 Speaker 1: the six seed, with the eleven seed being the better team. 327 00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:07,800 Speaker 1: Pace is also a major factor here, as New Mexico's 328 00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:13,560 Speaker 1: pushes the pace, and so as a team favored against Clemson, 329 00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:17,080 Speaker 1: you want your favorite team to push pace. So I 330 00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:20,200 Speaker 1: think that's great that New Mexico pushes pace against Clemson. 331 00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:22,359 Speaker 1: I'm gonna take them over Clemson, and then in the 332 00:18:22,359 --> 00:18:25,239 Speaker 1: next round. It certainly helps that with New Mexico as 333 00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:28,920 Speaker 1: an underdoged Baylor, that Baylor plays on the slower side, 334 00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:31,800 Speaker 1: which will reduce the amount of possessions that New Mexico 335 00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:34,920 Speaker 1: is facing. And Baylor is also overseeded, as I. 336 00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:36,920 Speaker 3: Have them more like a borderline four to. 337 00:18:36,880 --> 00:18:40,040 Speaker 1: Five seed instead of a three seed, So again we 338 00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:42,399 Speaker 1: get a spot where we're catching an overseeded team versus 339 00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:45,360 Speaker 1: an underseeded team. So definitely like the eleven over three 340 00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:48,320 Speaker 1: upset here from there, Arizona's gonna be tough. Look, we 341 00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:51,359 Speaker 1: gotta face tough teams at some point, but we'll worry 342 00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:54,000 Speaker 1: about it if he gets there. Maybe we've already cashed 343 00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:56,080 Speaker 1: out so much other stuff. We could just cash out 344 00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:59,400 Speaker 1: New Mexico versus Arizona if we want to, But I 345 00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:03,080 Speaker 1: Arizona is a tough out. If we're, you know, in 346 00:19:03,080 --> 00:19:05,560 Speaker 1: a spot where we haven't won anything, but we have 347 00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:07,880 Speaker 1: New Mexico versus Arizona, we may just need to roll 348 00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:09,360 Speaker 1: it over to the money line to the elite eight 349 00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:12,600 Speaker 1: and hope for the upset because you know, like I said, 350 00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:16,400 Speaker 1: New Mexico still grades as a very solid team around 351 00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:19,640 Speaker 1: like a seven to sixth seed in my power rating, 352 00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:22,840 Speaker 1: so there's definitely a non zero chance they upset Arizona. 353 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:26,080 Speaker 1: So New Mexico Lobos on the money line to the 354 00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:29,840 Speaker 1: Elite eight with pick number seven. Vallely is one more 355 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:34,000 Speaker 1: region and one more pick. I will say I'm avoiding 356 00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:37,200 Speaker 1: the bottom half of the East region here because while 357 00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:40,680 Speaker 1: I do have BYU rated closer to like a borderline 358 00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:43,080 Speaker 1: four or five seed rather than their six seed that 359 00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:45,560 Speaker 1: they got from the committee, I think the first round 360 00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:48,480 Speaker 1: spread is too high against Dukine, and I really don't 361 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:52,600 Speaker 1: fancy BYU against the solid two and three seeds in 362 00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:56,480 Speaker 1: both Illinois State or sorry, Iowa State in Illinois, so 363 00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:59,360 Speaker 1: that's gonna be tough there with a pretty strong two 364 00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:01,200 Speaker 1: and a pretty strong three seed on that side of 365 00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:03,840 Speaker 1: the bracket. So instead, I'll turn to the top half 366 00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:05,720 Speaker 1: of the bracket. And this is the first time ever 367 00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:09,080 Speaker 1: on the Giffing Guide to March Madness, I have not 368 00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:12,840 Speaker 1: taken a seed fifth or higher. Instead, I'm gonna roll 369 00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:17,159 Speaker 1: with the four seed Auburn Tigers I love Auburn as 370 00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:20,719 Speaker 1: they power rate actually as my fourth overall team in 371 00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:24,679 Speaker 1: the tournament. So in other words, based off my power ratings, 372 00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:26,960 Speaker 1: I would have them as the fourth number one seed. 373 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:29,159 Speaker 1: Yet they're stuck with a four seed here, and I 374 00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:30,880 Speaker 1: think a lot of it comes from a thirty six 375 00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:34,439 Speaker 1: day stretch where they struggle. They lost five games in 376 00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:36,680 Speaker 1: the thirty six day stretch, five of the seven games 377 00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:40,160 Speaker 1: they've lost all year. However, since then, Auburn is won 378 00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:43,679 Speaker 1: by an average of eighteen point eight points per game 379 00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:47,600 Speaker 1: against opponents who are on average, much tougher than their 380 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:50,879 Speaker 1: Round one opponent, Yale. So while I do think Yale 381 00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:54,120 Speaker 1: may keep this game close early, I'm gonna take Auburn 382 00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:56,720 Speaker 1: to cover the twelve and a half point spread against Yale, 383 00:20:57,040 --> 00:20:59,200 Speaker 1: as I have this more like thirteen and a half 384 00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:03,200 Speaker 1: or fourteen p plus. I do like the matchup. So 385 00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:05,440 Speaker 1: while the Yale Bulldogs do slow it down a bit, 386 00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:08,680 Speaker 1: they're a pretty poor free throw shooting team, which negates 387 00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:11,840 Speaker 1: Auburn's one weakness, which is Auburn's high foul rates. 388 00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:13,400 Speaker 3: So I'm going to black. 389 00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:17,959 Speaker 1: Back Auburn to cover the spread against Yale. If they don't, 390 00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:20,440 Speaker 1: then we lose this part. We lose this pick, but 391 00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:23,000 Speaker 1: if they do, then I like them money line the 392 00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:25,400 Speaker 1: rest of the way. You know, I think Auburn should 393 00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:27,879 Speaker 1: be able to handle San Diego State where, you know, 394 00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:30,919 Speaker 1: seeing as I have Auburn closer to like a one seed, 395 00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:32,879 Speaker 1: I certainly think they can handle a five seed in 396 00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:35,520 Speaker 1: San Diego State, So we can money line that game, 397 00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:38,320 Speaker 1: and then from there it's a likely showdown with number 398 00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:42,040 Speaker 1: one overall seed Yukon. While I do have Yukon favored, 399 00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:44,240 Speaker 1: this is a lot closer than it you know it 400 00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:47,720 Speaker 1: should be, so we can money line Auburn over Yukon 401 00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:51,760 Speaker 1: to get to the Elite eight. So there you have it. 402 00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:54,640 Speaker 1: Eight picks for the gift and guide to March Madness. 403 00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:58,760 Speaker 1: We've got Colorado Buffalo's as the ten seed in the South, 404 00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:01,320 Speaker 1: NC State wolf Pack because the eleven seed in the South, 405 00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:05,000 Speaker 1: Nebraska Cornhuskers as the eighth seed in the South. In 406 00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:08,280 Speaker 1: the Midwest, we have the number four seed South Carolina Gamecocks. 407 00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:11,520 Speaker 1: In the West, number five seed Michigan State sorry, number 408 00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:15,680 Speaker 1: nine seed Michigan State Spartans, and then Grand Canyon as 409 00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:19,120 Speaker 1: the twelve seed. Finally, in that same region, the West 410 00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:21,439 Speaker 1: region there we have New Mexico Lobos as the eleven 411 00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:24,000 Speaker 1: seed and with the final pick from the East Region 412 00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:27,439 Speaker 1: number four seed Auburn Tigers on the spread in the 413 00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:29,560 Speaker 1: first game and then the money line. 414 00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:30,760 Speaker 3: So good luck to us. 415 00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:33,520 Speaker 1: If there's any spot you want to differentiate, let me know, 416 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,639 Speaker 1: shout out to me, follow me on Twitter at rhotodoc. 417 00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:40,880 Speaker 1: Once again, this was the GIFFN Guide to March Madness 418 00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:44,040 Speaker 1: on the Action Network podcast presented by BETTMGM. 419 00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:48,000 Speaker 3: Good luck everyone. 420 00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:54,560 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 421 00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:57,359 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 422 00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:00,480 Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler