1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarckley and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:25,080 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:28,120 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Friday edition here on Bloomberg Radio on 7 00:00:28,160 --> 00:00:30,080 Speaker 2: the satellite radio channel one twenty one. 8 00:00:30,200 --> 00:00:33,040 Speaker 3: We see you on YouTube? Do you see us? 9 00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:40,160 Speaker 2: Search Bloomberg Business News Live. Having survived the voter rama, 10 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:43,879 Speaker 2: we'll talk about this. Yes, Senators, we're working at four 11 00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:46,520 Speaker 2: forty five in the morning. Were you not that often? 12 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:50,320 Speaker 2: Make up for it after spending so many hours outside 13 00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:53,640 Speaker 2: of the nation's capital. We actually got a vote. Something 14 00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:58,080 Speaker 2: actually happened in Washington. Actual news. As we stand by 15 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 2: to hear from Donald Trump. Well he's talking right now 16 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:02,959 Speaker 2: now in the White House. When they play it back, 17 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:06,000 Speaker 2: we'll have it for you. Addressing the governor's working session, 18 00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:08,920 Speaker 2: generating a boatload of headlines. As you just heard from 19 00:01:09,000 --> 00:01:14,120 Speaker 2: Charlie Pellett, twenty five percent auto Tariff's unlocking energy for 20 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:15,720 Speaker 2: AI will get there. 21 00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:18,400 Speaker 3: He's got lunch today with j d Vance I'm gonna 22 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:18,840 Speaker 3: swear in. 23 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:21,400 Speaker 2: How Howard Lutnik as the Secretary of Commerce a little 24 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:23,119 Speaker 2: bit later on, and then we'll do the EO dance. 25 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:27,320 Speaker 2: I heard Carol Master talking earlier, says Bloomberg. Business Week 26 00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 2: is now the EO show. I see you too, Carol. 27 00:01:31,120 --> 00:01:32,440 Speaker 3: But of course we'll bring this to you as it 28 00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 3: all happens. 29 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:35,319 Speaker 2: See pac taking a place just a little bit down 30 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:39,200 Speaker 2: the Potomac River byron Donald's and Press Secretary Caroline leve 31 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:42,279 Speaker 2: at the headliners. Christy Nome's going to be there as well, 32 00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:45,800 Speaker 2: the featured official at tonight's Ronald Reagan dinner. So the 33 00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:49,160 Speaker 2: voter rama, imagine four forty five am, what do we have? 34 00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 2: Everybody but Ran Paul on board at least for Republicans. 35 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 2: Fifty two forty eight, three hundred and forty billion dollar budget. 36 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 2: There's your framework. They got it done. What Lindsey Graham 37 00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:02,880 Speaker 2: was talking about as a plan B yesterday, Yeah, it happened. 38 00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:06,200 Speaker 2: But before you get real excited, I want you to 39 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:08,880 Speaker 2: take a look at what Terry Haynes is saying about 40 00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:13,040 Speaker 2: this whole thing. This week's good news, bad news on 41 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:16,960 Speaker 2: the tax cuts bill, on net markets positive, But here's 42 00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:19,640 Speaker 2: the problem. Terry says, you're gonna have to wait a 43 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:22,960 Speaker 2: long time, remembering, of course, the government's gonna run out 44 00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:25,280 Speaker 2: of money in the middle of March. Terry Haynes says 45 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:27,560 Speaker 2: markets will not see a final tax cut bill action 46 00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:29,800 Speaker 2: until the second half the calendar year, probably not the 47 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:34,119 Speaker 2: fourth quarter. Same basic timetable as twenty seventeen. 48 00:02:35,240 --> 00:02:37,840 Speaker 3: So what does that mean? Markets think. 49 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:44,760 Speaker 2: Things as negative like tariffs will front run by months 50 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:46,120 Speaker 2: the positive parts of the. 51 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:48,440 Speaker 3: Trump economic agenda. So what's Wall Street going to look 52 00:02:48,480 --> 00:02:48,919 Speaker 3: like by then? 53 00:02:50,240 --> 00:02:52,840 Speaker 2: Terry Haynes joins us right now, the founder of Pangea 54 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:55,600 Speaker 2: Policy on Bloomberg TV and radio. Every now and then, 55 00:02:55,639 --> 00:02:57,200 Speaker 2: I got a crack at Terry. It's great to have 56 00:02:57,240 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 2: you back, sir, Happy Friday. That doesn't sound good to 57 00:02:59,880 --> 00:03:02,120 Speaker 2: me when you market's negative. If we're waiting around to 58 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:05,680 Speaker 2: the fourth quarter to get this tax and spend bill done, 59 00:03:06,040 --> 00:03:07,640 Speaker 2: what will Wall Street do in the meantime? 60 00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 4: They will use one of the great press words. Now, 61 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:15,800 Speaker 4: they'll fret. They'll fret a lot, and you know, meanwhile, 62 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:18,200 Speaker 4: other things will happen and they might be good or 63 00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:21,079 Speaker 4: they might be bad. Earnings might be good, geopolitical risk 64 00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 4: might be bad whatever you know it's but it is 65 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:28,519 Speaker 4: a It's another testament to the difference between political time 66 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:32,320 Speaker 4: and markets time. You know, some of your colleagues have 67 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:37,320 Speaker 4: been opining and speculating and seriously, I mean they're they're 68 00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:40,120 Speaker 4: reflecting markets by saying so wondering what you know, like 69 00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:43,800 Speaker 4: where the tax bill is. And you know, the president 70 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:49,160 Speaker 4: was inaugurated one month and one day ago and Congress 71 00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:52,720 Speaker 4: has been around for two weeks longer than that. This 72 00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:55,000 Speaker 4: takes a while, as you well know, and the audience 73 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:57,480 Speaker 4: well knows, because there's lots of hoops to jump through, 74 00:03:57,560 --> 00:04:01,320 Speaker 4: and including figuring out what the budget is, figuring out 75 00:04:01,360 --> 00:04:03,760 Speaker 4: what the deficit is, and that's really the starting gun. 76 00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:06,760 Speaker 4: Once they do that, then they could get into the 77 00:04:06,800 --> 00:04:09,440 Speaker 4: specifics on the tax bill, and that takes probably the 78 00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:11,560 Speaker 4: second half of the year, just like twenty seventeen. 79 00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:13,440 Speaker 3: Yep, how about that. 80 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:17,760 Speaker 2: History is our guide here, at least to some extent. 81 00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:20,480 Speaker 2: This is a different political environment that we're in now. 82 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:23,320 Speaker 2: There's a much thinner majority for Republicans in the House. 83 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:25,240 Speaker 2: It could be one member at that point. I guess 84 00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:27,280 Speaker 2: we'll have to wait and see how that goes. When 85 00:04:27,320 --> 00:04:29,880 Speaker 2: at least to phonic heads to the un But I 86 00:04:29,960 --> 00:04:33,600 Speaker 2: just big picture, Terriet, where's your head around this whole thing. 87 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:36,039 Speaker 2: We've got the House set to vote on something next week, 88 00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:40,960 Speaker 2: and it seeks to cut Medicaid spending to help pay 89 00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:43,520 Speaker 2: for the tax cuts. And we're already hearing a lot 90 00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:46,919 Speaker 2: of outcry about this. Republican members have been home for 91 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:49,440 Speaker 2: the week. They're holding town halls, They're hearing concerns about 92 00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:53,039 Speaker 2: Doge in some cases going over the line Medicaid. What 93 00:04:53,080 --> 00:04:55,599 Speaker 2: are you going to do with my entitlements here? And 94 00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:59,359 Speaker 2: it's going to make this a knockdown, drag out. I 95 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:01,520 Speaker 2: guess that's why you see it lasting all year. But 96 00:05:02,520 --> 00:05:06,000 Speaker 2: who's going to win this fight between the Senate and 97 00:05:06,040 --> 00:05:06,400 Speaker 2: the House. 98 00:05:07,480 --> 00:05:08,200 Speaker 3: I don't know yet. 99 00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:12,520 Speaker 4: Frankly, you know, I thought Senator Graham was quite right 100 00:05:12,760 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 4: to say everybody needs a Plan B, and you know, 101 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:21,200 Speaker 4: be may well turn into Plan A. There's no guarantee that, 102 00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:25,520 Speaker 4: given the margins that you just ran down, that the 103 00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:27,919 Speaker 4: House will end up having the votes for much of anything. 104 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:30,040 Speaker 4: I mean, we you know, we're not even to the point. 105 00:05:30,080 --> 00:05:32,320 Speaker 4: This is how preliminary it is. We're not even to 106 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:35,960 Speaker 4: the point where the Committee of juror the Committeees of Jurisdiction, 107 00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:39,359 Speaker 4: Energy and Commerce in ways and means even get to 108 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:44,320 Speaker 4: start talking about exactly what sort of health efficiencies or 109 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 4: cuts or anything else they might make. But they've got 110 00:05:47,360 --> 00:05:49,360 Speaker 4: to make a lot of them. Their task to make 111 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:52,240 Speaker 4: a lot of them. So that is going to be 112 00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:54,520 Speaker 4: a knockdown drag out through the spring. And then on 113 00:05:54,600 --> 00:05:58,240 Speaker 4: top of that, I think what shakes markets further in 114 00:05:58,640 --> 00:06:01,400 Speaker 4: Washington confidence over the next few weeks is you're going 115 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:03,880 Speaker 4: to have a State of the Union address that'll be 116 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:08,320 Speaker 4: you know, a barn Burner triumphalist. Going forward, you'll have 117 00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:12,279 Speaker 4: a likely i think, government shutdown. You've got debt ceiling 118 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:16,240 Speaker 4: looming out there the late spring, early summer. There's not 119 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:18,720 Speaker 4: going to be a lot of confidence in the next 120 00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:22,440 Speaker 4: few weeks in markets that Washington or Trump specifically have 121 00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:25,160 Speaker 4: got the goods to actually execute. Now. I think they 122 00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:28,480 Speaker 4: do want the task cut ultimately, but they're going to 123 00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:29,719 Speaker 4: have to go through a trough first. 124 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:32,119 Speaker 3: Boy, you just said a lot. 125 00:06:32,560 --> 00:06:35,920 Speaker 2: By the way, this is exactly what Sarah Chamberlin mentioned 126 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:39,920 Speaker 2: last evening on Balance of Power Republican Main Street Partnership. Yeah, 127 00:06:40,400 --> 00:06:44,719 Speaker 2: shutdown looking like it may actually happen this time. But 128 00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:47,440 Speaker 2: we've got a House resolution Terry that we're told is 129 00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:49,799 Speaker 2: going to be on the floor next week. It includes 130 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:52,360 Speaker 2: instructions for the House Energy and Commerce Committee to find 131 00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:55,320 Speaker 2: eight hundred and eighty billion dollars in cuts. That's why 132 00:06:55,400 --> 00:06:59,320 Speaker 2: we're talking about Medicaid and potentially some of the other entitlements. 133 00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:01,800 Speaker 2: Can that pass literally actually goes to the floor next week. 134 00:07:03,839 --> 00:07:08,120 Speaker 4: Well, the budget resolution is on is on a knife 135 00:07:08,240 --> 00:07:11,960 Speaker 4: edge right now. I think the budget resolution passes. What 136 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:13,920 Speaker 4: you just talked about in terms of Medicaid and all 137 00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:17,000 Speaker 4: those kinds of other sorts of things is implied in 138 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:19,960 Speaker 4: the amount of savings that they're asked to do. But 139 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:22,720 Speaker 4: nobody's telling them they have to find that amount. Nobody's 140 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:25,320 Speaker 4: telling Energy and Commerce they have to find that amount 141 00:07:25,360 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 4: of savings in medicaid. So, you know, somebody, somebody can 142 00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:32,360 Speaker 4: vote on this thing. Feel covered. But when Energy and 143 00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:35,640 Speaker 4: Commerce comes back in a few weeks and says here's 144 00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:38,040 Speaker 4: how we're going to do this, that's really where the 145 00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:40,360 Speaker 4: rubber meets the road, and you know, frankly, where I 146 00:07:40,360 --> 00:07:42,920 Speaker 4: think some revolt happens. You know, the phrase it keeps 147 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:47,560 Speaker 4: going around is from uh is from Aaron Sorkin's a 148 00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:52,320 Speaker 4: few good men. Where where the colonel is? It keeps 149 00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 4: getting asked by the processutor, by the defense. You know, 150 00:07:55,640 --> 00:07:58,520 Speaker 4: you said Santiago was not to be touched, you know, 151 00:07:59,200 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 4: and yet uh you said Medicaid was not to be touched. 152 00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:06,280 Speaker 4: And yet here we are, you know, yet worse siority 153 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:07,160 Speaker 4: before it gets better. 154 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 2: I think Terry Haynes, did you order the code read? 155 00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:13,000 Speaker 2: I want you to walk me into the House Chamber 156 00:08:13,320 --> 00:08:16,560 Speaker 2: the night Donald Trump addresses a joint session of Congress. 157 00:08:16,600 --> 00:08:18,120 Speaker 2: We'll call it State of the Union for the fun 158 00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:21,840 Speaker 2: of it. It's basically the same deal. Decorum. 159 00:08:22,080 --> 00:08:22,800 Speaker 3: Is this going to be a. 160 00:08:24,520 --> 00:08:27,040 Speaker 2: A call in response like Joe Biden had going with 161 00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:30,080 Speaker 2: the Republican cons What's Donald Trump walking into that night? 162 00:08:30,080 --> 00:08:31,600 Speaker 3: It's going to be another circus, isn't it? 163 00:08:32,360 --> 00:08:32,560 Speaker 5: Oh? 164 00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:35,360 Speaker 4: You know, I thought I thought Patrick McHenry on your 165 00:08:35,400 --> 00:08:38,200 Speaker 4: on your program yesterday had it exactly right. It's going 166 00:08:38,280 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 4: to be an awful lot like the UK Parliament's PMQ's 167 00:08:41,559 --> 00:08:44,040 Speaker 4: uh and you know I won't belabor it, but uh 168 00:08:44,840 --> 00:08:48,880 Speaker 4: McHenry is uh spot is a keen observer spot on 169 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:51,720 Speaker 4: about that. Yeah, there's gonna be a lot of yelling 170 00:08:51,760 --> 00:08:53,920 Speaker 4: and screaming one way or the other, and there's gonna 171 00:08:53,920 --> 00:08:57,120 Speaker 4: be a lot of people screaming, you lie, except it's 172 00:08:57,160 --> 00:08:58,560 Speaker 4: going to be the other party this time. 173 00:09:00,679 --> 00:09:04,559 Speaker 3: Boy, where's Chris Congressman Wilson? Now? 174 00:09:05,520 --> 00:09:07,600 Speaker 2: All right, well, Terry, the president's going to be speaking 175 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:09,880 Speaker 2: in a moment here. He's talking about twenty five percent 176 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:12,199 Speaker 2: auto tariffs in our remaining thirty seconds. 177 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:14,720 Speaker 3: Do those ever see implementation? 178 00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 4: Yeah? I think eventually some of them do. I don't 179 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:23,440 Speaker 4: think thirty seconds or excuse me, thirty percent necessarily, but there 180 00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:25,839 Speaker 4: will be a need to keep the pressure on, and 181 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:29,760 Speaker 4: we should always remember tariffs to this administration or a 182 00:09:29,800 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 4: tool in service of a broader economic policy. Reset. 183 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:36,840 Speaker 2: He's not only a friend of the program, but a 184 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:39,439 Speaker 2: friend of the entire network. There's only one Terry Haynes, 185 00:09:39,480 --> 00:09:42,079 Speaker 2: the founder of Pangaea Policy. Terry, it's good to see you. 186 00:09:42,080 --> 00:09:45,560 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 187 00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:49,079 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 188 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:52,160 Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You 189 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:55,679 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 190 00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:59,600 Speaker 1: New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven. 191 00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:03,719 Speaker 2: Thirty headlines are flying out of the White House right 192 00:10:03,760 --> 00:10:07,199 Speaker 2: now as Donald Trump speaks to Republican governors who are 193 00:10:07,240 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 2: in town. Republican Governors Association Winter meetings underway. He was 194 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:14,080 Speaker 2: the headliner speaking to the group last evening, but this 195 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:15,880 Speaker 2: has been a romp. They've been going for almost an 196 00:10:15,920 --> 00:10:17,920 Speaker 2: hour here right, My god, it has been an hour 197 00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:22,480 Speaker 2: actually since he walked into the State dining room, commenting 198 00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 2: on a number of issues, including auto tariffs. If you're 199 00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:29,600 Speaker 2: looking at the terminal, he says, yeah, twenty five percent 200 00:10:29,679 --> 00:10:37,400 Speaker 2: tariffs on foreign cars to start April second. Probably talked 201 00:10:37,400 --> 00:10:39,959 Speaker 2: about power plants and AI wants to see power plants 202 00:10:39,960 --> 00:10:44,720 Speaker 2: built alongside data centers, AI production facilities, attacked wind energy, 203 00:10:45,320 --> 00:10:48,400 Speaker 2: and started reading off some Doge projects. He's showing up 204 00:10:48,400 --> 00:10:50,679 Speaker 2: with the receipts pretty much every time he's at a podium. Here, 205 00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:52,959 Speaker 2: I can run through them all for you, but you've 206 00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:57,240 Speaker 2: heard them on this program. Coming off a big night 207 00:10:57,240 --> 00:10:59,839 Speaker 2: at the Sea Pack, now, President Trump's going to be 208 00:10:59,880 --> 00:11:04,360 Speaker 2: the headliner there tomorrow, the Conservative Political Action Conference. It's 209 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:08,120 Speaker 2: happening down the Potomac River, a short ways from the 210 00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:10,640 Speaker 2: nation's capitol. Big ferris Wheel. When you drive down it 211 00:11:10,640 --> 00:11:12,360 Speaker 2: looks like an amusement park, and it is a bit 212 00:11:12,400 --> 00:11:13,600 Speaker 2: of a circus at Seapack. 213 00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:14,760 Speaker 3: That's the point. 214 00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:18,480 Speaker 2: Big Raw rod Elon Musk shows up last night literally 215 00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:21,520 Speaker 2: with a chainsaw and started swinging it around. 216 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:24,400 Speaker 3: He's yelling. He was wearing terminator sunglasses and a lot 217 00:11:24,440 --> 00:11:27,600 Speaker 3: of questions about the mood he was in. 218 00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:31,520 Speaker 2: Have a little trouble communicating and answering questions last evening. 219 00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:33,200 Speaker 2: In this case, he did all right. He was asked 220 00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:37,480 Speaker 2: about the Doge dividend, sending checks to every American based 221 00:11:37,520 --> 00:11:38,600 Speaker 2: on how much money they save. 222 00:11:38,679 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 3: Here's how it went. 223 00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:40,560 Speaker 6: It's money. 224 00:11:40,559 --> 00:11:42,920 Speaker 4: It's taken away from from things that are destructive to 225 00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:43,480 Speaker 4: the country. 226 00:11:43,920 --> 00:11:45,720 Speaker 6: That and from organizations that hate you. 227 00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:48,040 Speaker 3: To you, that's awesome. 228 00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:52,160 Speaker 6: Does it seem I mean, have you talked that's like 229 00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:54,320 Speaker 6: the spoils of battle? 230 00:11:54,480 --> 00:11:59,040 Speaker 3: You know, I like that there traction on that, yeah, yeah, so. 231 00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:01,400 Speaker 6: Yeah, uh yeah. 232 00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:05,199 Speaker 4: Took the president he's supportive of that, and so it 233 00:12:05,280 --> 00:12:07,440 Speaker 4: sounds like, you know, that's something we're going to do. 234 00:12:09,160 --> 00:12:12,120 Speaker 2: Just a sample of the conversation on stage as we 235 00:12:12,160 --> 00:12:16,560 Speaker 2: bring in Max Chafkin, Bloomberg BusinessWeek columnist contributor the Elon Inc. 236 00:12:16,720 --> 00:12:17,240 Speaker 3: Podcast. 237 00:12:17,280 --> 00:12:19,839 Speaker 2: If you're not already subscribed, you should check it out 238 00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:21,560 Speaker 2: if you care about this story, and I know you do. 239 00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:23,600 Speaker 2: If you're here on Bloomberg, Max, it's great to have you. 240 00:12:23,640 --> 00:12:25,600 Speaker 2: If you only knew how often I ask if you 241 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:28,080 Speaker 2: can come on the program, because it's like it's every 242 00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:30,320 Speaker 2: day there's a story that I'd like to hear you 243 00:12:30,360 --> 00:12:32,000 Speaker 2: weigh in on. So let's go a little bit big 244 00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:34,720 Speaker 2: picture to start. As you just saw Elon Musk with 245 00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:37,440 Speaker 2: the sunglasses. He's got the tech Support T shirt on 246 00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:43,040 Speaker 2: half the time is swinging around a chainsaw and so look, yes, 247 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:46,920 Speaker 2: but so is he having a blast? Is this a hobby? 248 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:50,720 Speaker 2: Is this his new full time occupation? Where where does 249 00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:53,600 Speaker 2: Elon Musk the person here? If you're with us on YouTube, 250 00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:56,079 Speaker 2: you see President Malay giving him this chainsaw? 251 00:12:56,120 --> 00:12:57,439 Speaker 3: Is this just a big party for him? 252 00:12:57,480 --> 00:12:57,760 Speaker 4: Max? 253 00:12:58,160 --> 00:13:00,760 Speaker 7: I mean, he is certainly treating it that way, you know, 254 00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:03,400 Speaker 7: and I think for better for worse. On the Sea 255 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 7: Pack stage, you know, just judging from the audience response, 256 00:13:06,840 --> 00:13:09,440 Speaker 7: as weird and awkward as some of these moments were, 257 00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:11,400 Speaker 7: you know, it seemed like it played pretty well in 258 00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:14,040 Speaker 7: the room. And he is he is a rock star 259 00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:19,080 Speaker 7: in kind of activist conservative circles. He's probably the most 260 00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:23,560 Speaker 7: important surrogate for Donald Trump besides Donald Trump. I think 261 00:13:23,640 --> 00:13:26,199 Speaker 7: there is a serious component here, both in terms of 262 00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:28,920 Speaker 7: what Musk is actually doing. I mean, you know, people 263 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:32,360 Speaker 7: are being affected in huge ways right now by these 264 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:36,160 Speaker 7: doge cuts, and civil servants are in a state of, 265 00:13:36,240 --> 00:13:39,520 Speaker 7: i think, from from their point of view, crisis. And also, 266 00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:43,000 Speaker 7: of course there's potential for Musk to benefit from this stuff. 267 00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:48,760 Speaker 7: You know, just just recently seeing reports that the Justice 268 00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:51,360 Speaker 7: Department lawsuit against SpaceX looks like it might be dropped. 269 00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:56,520 Speaker 7: This is involving employing alleged discrimination. You know, there are 270 00:13:56,559 --> 00:14:00,439 Speaker 7: lots of ways that he can use this stick to 271 00:14:00,880 --> 00:14:03,320 Speaker 7: drive profits. And that's kind of what makes it so 272 00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:08,040 Speaker 7: interesting is that on one hand, it seems totally unserious. 273 00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:10,240 Speaker 7: I mean, he's on stage, he's got the chain, you 274 00:14:10,240 --> 00:14:12,200 Speaker 7: can barely he can't hear what he's saying, partly because 275 00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:14,400 Speaker 7: he seems to seems to have trouble finding his words 276 00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:17,319 Speaker 7: at times, but also because the chain is rattling against 277 00:14:17,360 --> 00:14:21,640 Speaker 7: the microphone. And yet and yet he's doing all kinds 278 00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:24,840 Speaker 7: of stuff. So so again it's it's it's a it's 279 00:14:24,880 --> 00:14:27,520 Speaker 7: both serious and unserious at the same time. 280 00:14:27,560 --> 00:14:30,280 Speaker 2: I'd say, well, so you said a couple of things 281 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:34,120 Speaker 2: there referring to his I guess erratic behavior we'll call it. 282 00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 2: He was having trouble stringing words together in a couple 283 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:38,320 Speaker 2: of moments last evening. 284 00:14:38,360 --> 00:14:39,920 Speaker 3: That might just have been the mood he was in. 285 00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:43,400 Speaker 2: Look, he's not a public speaker by trade, He's not 286 00:14:43,480 --> 00:14:46,920 Speaker 2: Donald Trump, but there have been questions about his sobriety, 287 00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:49,920 Speaker 2: about his mental state. Can you weigh in on that? 288 00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:53,400 Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, I obviously I have no idea what 289 00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:56,600 Speaker 7: was what was going on in between his ears during 290 00:14:56,680 --> 00:15:00,920 Speaker 7: that during that appearance. You know, I'll say, Look, Elon Musk, 291 00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:03,680 Speaker 7: as you said, is an unconventional guy. He's somebody who 292 00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:07,360 Speaker 7: has publicly talked about his drug use. He you know, 293 00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:10,120 Speaker 7: he famously smoked took a hit of a joint on 294 00:15:10,160 --> 00:15:14,840 Speaker 7: the Joe Rogan podcast years ago, has talked about ketamine 295 00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:18,760 Speaker 7: use for depression. He also talks about his own kind 296 00:15:18,760 --> 00:15:21,640 Speaker 7: of mental health challenges all the time, you know, And 297 00:15:21,840 --> 00:15:25,680 Speaker 7: I believe even during this appearance, it came up briefly 298 00:15:25,720 --> 00:15:29,280 Speaker 7: talking about his mind being a storm. And so look 299 00:15:29,400 --> 00:15:34,840 Speaker 7: like this is he's unconventional, and he's in some ways transparent, 300 00:15:34,920 --> 00:15:38,480 Speaker 7: at least compared to like a typical political figure, and 301 00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:39,640 Speaker 7: that's part of the peal I think. 302 00:15:41,760 --> 00:15:44,560 Speaker 3: So he's got actual other jobs. 303 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:49,440 Speaker 2: He runs some pretty important companies, including a massive government contractor, 304 00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:52,720 Speaker 2: and of course Tesla. We can get into Twitter and 305 00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:56,360 Speaker 2: all the rest here. But his actions in Washington are 306 00:15:56,400 --> 00:15:59,240 Speaker 2: impacting some consumer behavior. And I wonder if you see 307 00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:02,800 Speaker 2: this becoming a detriment, for instance, to people who think 308 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:04,720 Speaker 2: it's a political statement to drive a Tesla. 309 00:16:05,480 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 3: Well, yeah, we're seeing that already. 310 00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:09,720 Speaker 7: And I mean, you know, there it's it's hard to 311 00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:14,080 Speaker 7: know exactly how much politics is hurting Tesla's sales. You know, 312 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:17,400 Speaker 7: Tesla was growing very quickly for a long time. Growth 313 00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:22,440 Speaker 7: has slowed dramatically. You know, the ev industry has also 314 00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:24,360 Speaker 7: had you know, bumps in the road and so on. 315 00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:27,680 Speaker 7: But it really does seem like in the US and Europe, 316 00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:30,560 Speaker 7: where where a lot of Tesla sales come from, the 317 00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:33,640 Speaker 7: sales are slowing down, and that slowdown has coincided with 318 00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:39,680 Speaker 7: Musk's political profile raising. I also think there are potential 319 00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:44,360 Speaker 7: political costs. We're starting to see just the beginnings of 320 00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:47,080 Speaker 7: blowback on the right to some of this stuff. Now, 321 00:16:47,080 --> 00:16:48,640 Speaker 7: you're not going to see this at sapack. You know, 322 00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:50,720 Speaker 7: you're talking about you know, died in the wool, active 323 00:16:50,720 --> 00:16:52,800 Speaker 7: as people who really like Elon Musk. But you know, 324 00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:55,360 Speaker 7: reports in a front page story in the Washington Post 325 00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:59,600 Speaker 7: about cabinet officials kind of privately grumbling. You know, Politico 326 00:16:59,680 --> 00:17:04,400 Speaker 7: did a story about law some Congress people sort of worrying. 327 00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:08,200 Speaker 7: You know, each of these cuts has impact and will 328 00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:11,399 Speaker 7: have political costs, you know, right, we Bloomberg has a 329 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:16,000 Speaker 7: story today about how one of Musk's DOGE employees, who 330 00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:19,439 Speaker 7: was who resigned after these eugenics reports that he had 331 00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:23,560 Speaker 7: expressed support for eugenics. He's back, and he's inside the 332 00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:27,480 Speaker 7: Social Security Administration. Right, social Security affects a lot of people. 333 00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:29,080 Speaker 7: You know, there's a good chance this is not going 334 00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:33,600 Speaker 7: to be super popular when we get to the midterm. 335 00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:38,119 Speaker 2: Yeah wow, all right, tell me about his day to 336 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:40,399 Speaker 2: day to the extent that we know, is he's sleeping 337 00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:43,040 Speaker 2: on the floor like he was at Twitter. Does he 338 00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:46,440 Speaker 2: have some kind of a you know, a penthouse patt 339 00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:48,399 Speaker 2: he's living in in Washington? Does he fly back and 340 00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:51,119 Speaker 2: forth to Texas? I don't understand how he does all 341 00:17:51,160 --> 00:17:53,160 Speaker 2: of this stuff, How's he spending all these plates at once? 342 00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:56,840 Speaker 7: Well, I mean he's done this kind of thing for years, 343 00:17:56,880 --> 00:18:00,280 Speaker 7: where he will focus in on one thing. So when 344 00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:02,720 Speaker 7: Tesla was preparing to release the Model three that was 345 00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:07,359 Speaker 7: its affordable sedan back in twenty eighteen, he claimed to 346 00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:10,239 Speaker 7: be sleeping at the factory. When he took over X, 347 00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:12,280 Speaker 7: he claimed to be sleeping at the X office, right, 348 00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:14,760 Speaker 7: and he seems to sort of push everything aside, and 349 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:17,879 Speaker 7: right now as you say it's doge, he has said 350 00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:22,080 Speaker 7: that he is sleeping at the Eisenhower Executive Office building. 351 00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:25,200 Speaker 7: I think Musk has a tendency to kind of play 352 00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:27,239 Speaker 7: this stuff up like it would not surprise me if 353 00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:30,879 Speaker 7: he also had a hotel room or whatever. But he 354 00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:33,879 Speaker 7: really is. I mean, he is spending a lot of 355 00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:36,040 Speaker 7: time on this and of course spending a ton of 356 00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:39,359 Speaker 7: time just staying on Twitter and posting. I mean, you 357 00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:43,200 Speaker 7: look at the schedule, it is it boggles the normal mind. 358 00:18:43,359 --> 00:18:46,919 Speaker 7: I mean it's a you know, he's posting essentially nearly 359 00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:49,399 Speaker 7: twenty four to seven. So you got to ask yourself, like, 360 00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:52,520 Speaker 7: when is this guy sleeping and how is this going 361 00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:53,840 Speaker 7: to affect his other companies. 362 00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:56,919 Speaker 2: This is exactly the conversation I wanted to have. And 363 00:18:56,960 --> 00:18:59,679 Speaker 2: by the way, sleep deprivation may have a lot to 364 00:18:59,680 --> 00:19:02,560 Speaker 2: do with his erratic behavior, right, this is something that 365 00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:03,439 Speaker 2: we need to allow. 366 00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:04,359 Speaker 3: Max. 367 00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:05,680 Speaker 2: I know I'm asking you a lot of the same 368 00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:09,520 Speaker 2: questions you're asking people in elon Musk's orbit. But what's 369 00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:11,399 Speaker 2: the end game here? I mean, does he just finally 370 00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:15,119 Speaker 2: get bored or how does he wrap this thing up 371 00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:17,600 Speaker 2: when the first year is done with those he just 372 00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:18,680 Speaker 2: moves back to Texas? 373 00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:22,920 Speaker 7: Well, It's interesting, I mean, right now, he seems pretty committed. 374 00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:25,359 Speaker 7: And there had been thoughts that this could be just 375 00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:29,680 Speaker 7: a passing fixation or something like that, or perhaps Trump 376 00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:31,840 Speaker 7: would get tired of him. That doesn't seem like it's 377 00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 7: happening anytime soon. As you brought up, Trump still kind 378 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:38,679 Speaker 7: of touting Doge at every turn. I think what would 379 00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:42,960 Speaker 7: cause Musk to step away would be genuine trouble at 380 00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:45,320 Speaker 7: his companies. And the truth is, we haven't seen that, 381 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:49,360 Speaker 7: right investors in Tesla. Tesla stock hasn't been doing great 382 00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:52,400 Speaker 7: over the last six weeks or so, but it's stock 383 00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:55,720 Speaker 7: is still way up After the election. Most Tesla investors 384 00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:59,600 Speaker 7: think Musk's position, you know, with respect to Donald Trump, 385 00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:03,120 Speaker 7: his being a senior advisor to one of the most 386 00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:05,760 Speaker 7: powerful people in the world is a net positive for 387 00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:08,080 Speaker 7: the company, and the stock reflects that. And all of 388 00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:11,760 Speaker 7: Musk's companies right now are essentially up. You know, SpaceX 389 00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:14,800 Speaker 7: is trying to raise a megavaluation, and why wouldn't they, right, 390 00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:16,880 Speaker 7: they're in a great position to win more contracts, which 391 00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:20,360 Speaker 7: we you know, we Bloomberg has been reporting on twitter 392 00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:23,480 Speaker 7: X they're trying to raise money at a higher valuation. 393 00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:26,360 Speaker 7: So basically he's up across the board. So I think 394 00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:28,439 Speaker 7: the thing that could change it, I mean, I think 395 00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:31,080 Speaker 7: the biggest priority for Elon Musk really are these businesses, 396 00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:33,160 Speaker 7: and that's part of why he's doing this. And if 397 00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:37,280 Speaker 7: the businesses clearly are hurting, if the valuations are falling, 398 00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:38,440 Speaker 7: then we'll see movement. 399 00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:41,520 Speaker 2: Really glad you could join us, Max, It's good to 400 00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:44,280 Speaker 2: see a Max Chafkin. Check out the Elon and podcast. 401 00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:47,840 Speaker 2: Follow his work at Bloomberg BusinessWeek. Great conversation here on 402 00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:49,760 Speaker 2: balance of power. Do you hear about the desk? By 403 00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:52,240 Speaker 2: the way, did hear the story coming into the the hour? 404 00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:52,560 Speaker 3: Here? 405 00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:56,800 Speaker 2: Donald Trump on truth social remember Elon Musk. You were 406 00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:59,760 Speaker 2: just seeing it on YouTube. He brought as kid want 407 00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:01,879 Speaker 2: you into the Oval Off is picking his nose at 408 00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:05,560 Speaker 2: the remember this whole thing. Donald Trump does not like 409 00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:11,640 Speaker 2: that germophobe. He had the desk, the Resolute desk removed. 410 00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 2: This is real untruth social quote. The president after election 411 00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:19,399 Speaker 2: gets a choice of one in seven desks. He writes 412 00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:22,080 Speaker 2: this desk. The Cno, which was also very well known 413 00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:24,399 Speaker 2: used by President George H. W. Bush and others, has 414 00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:27,600 Speaker 2: been temporarily installed in the White House while the Resolute 415 00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:32,840 Speaker 2: Desk is being lightly refinished. Very important job. This is 416 00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:35,359 Speaker 2: a beautiful but temporary replacement. We'll let you know when 417 00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:36,880 Speaker 2: the Resolute Desk goes back in there. 418 00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:37,680 Speaker 3: I'm guessing. 419 00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:41,800 Speaker 2: There won't be too many children around it. We'll assemble 420 00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:43,760 Speaker 2: our panel next. Rick and Genie are where us coming up? 421 00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:44,640 Speaker 2: Right here on Bloomberg. 422 00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:50,440 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 423 00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:53,520 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 424 00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:56,920 Speaker 1: Apple Coarclay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 425 00:21:57,080 --> 00:22:00,320 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 426 00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:02,919 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 427 00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:05,439 Speaker 2: Great to have you with us here on the Friday 428 00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:09,639 Speaker 2: edition of Balance of Power on Bloomberg Radio serious XM 429 00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:11,720 Speaker 2: Channel one twenty one and on YouTube. You can find 430 00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:15,320 Speaker 2: us on YouTube right now search Bloomberg Business News Live. 431 00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:21,280 Speaker 2: He's still talking. President Trump has been talking now for 432 00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:26,439 Speaker 2: almost an hour and a half without interruption as he 433 00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:29,560 Speaker 2: addresses Republican governors who are in town for the RGA 434 00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:34,159 Speaker 2: Governor's Association. They do their winter meetings here. Yeah, the 435 00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:38,080 Speaker 2: headlines are still flying. He's talking about border policy at 436 00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:40,280 Speaker 2: this point, as well as tariff's auto tariffs. He says 437 00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:44,560 Speaker 2: twenty five percent will go into effect on imported cars 438 00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:49,240 Speaker 2: on April second. Probably need to double the energy that 439 00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:51,240 Speaker 2: we have right now. When he talks about AI allowing 440 00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:53,800 Speaker 2: companies to have their own power plants, this has been 441 00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:58,159 Speaker 2: an interesting conversation, talking about chip makers coming in, apple 442 00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:02,000 Speaker 2: shifting plants because of tariffs, building plants in the US 443 00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:02,680 Speaker 2: not Mexico. 444 00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:04,439 Speaker 3: He says he met with Tim Cook yesterday and that 445 00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:06,080 Speaker 3: was the result. 446 00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:08,960 Speaker 2: We will bring you in the room for this once 447 00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:10,840 Speaker 2: we get the tape playback from the White House. This 448 00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:13,160 Speaker 2: is not something that was even supposed to be open 449 00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:15,760 Speaker 2: to press. They decided to let reporters in. Once we 450 00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:18,040 Speaker 2: get our hands on that tape. We'll have it for 451 00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:21,359 Speaker 2: you here. Pretty remarkable as Donald Trump also pledges to 452 00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:27,040 Speaker 2: drop illegal drug use by fifty percent, which is something 453 00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:32,880 Speaker 2: he says could be done through an anti drug ad campaign. 454 00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:34,919 Speaker 3: Paging Nancy Reagan. 455 00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:38,680 Speaker 2: There's a lot more to talk about today, though, because 456 00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:42,159 Speaker 2: something actually took place last evening. Well, I'll correct myself 457 00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:44,480 Speaker 2: and say very early this morning on Capitol Hill. 458 00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:44,960 Speaker 3: Do you see this? 459 00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:49,160 Speaker 2: The Senate actually passed a budget resolution. Not a big shocker, 460 00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:51,960 Speaker 2: following a voter rama that went on for so many hours. 461 00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:54,480 Speaker 2: Four forty five am. They actually got a vote fifty 462 00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:57,040 Speaker 2: two forty eight to pass a three hundred and forty 463 00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:58,840 Speaker 2: billion dollar budget framework. 464 00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:01,120 Speaker 3: Now, this is not the whole deal. This is really 465 00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:01,520 Speaker 3: just the. 466 00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:04,879 Speaker 2: Initial stage to create what I believe Patrick McHenry yesterday 467 00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:09,400 Speaker 2: described as the chassis for the reconciliation process that will 468 00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:13,520 Speaker 2: then follow. Now, Democrats had their way through a lot 469 00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:15,920 Speaker 2: of amendments, didn't change anything in the end. Ran Paul 470 00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:19,400 Speaker 2: is the one no vote on the Republican side. Chuck 471 00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:21,520 Speaker 2: Schumer took to the floor said we were forced to 472 00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:24,639 Speaker 2: go on record. The Republicans forced to go on record 473 00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:27,280 Speaker 2: and defend their plans to cut taxes for Donald Trump's 474 00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:28,159 Speaker 2: billionaire friends. 475 00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:29,440 Speaker 3: It's done. 476 00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:31,399 Speaker 2: The House will have its turn next week, and we 477 00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:34,840 Speaker 2: assemble our signature political panel for their take on things. 478 00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:37,080 Speaker 2: Rick and Jeanie are both with us on the Friday edition. 479 00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:40,280 Speaker 2: Genie Shanzano, Senior Democracy Fellow at the Center for the 480 00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:43,480 Speaker 2: Study of the Presidency in Congress, our Democratic analyst, and 481 00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:47,159 Speaker 2: Rick Davis, Republican strategist partner at Stone Court Capital. Was 482 00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:50,120 Speaker 2: it worth it, Jeanie? Democrats kept them up all night? 483 00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:51,360 Speaker 2: What do they have to show for it? 484 00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:54,679 Speaker 5: Well, Jill, first of all, you didn't let me in 485 00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:57,760 Speaker 5: on what they had to eat and drink throughout the night. 486 00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:00,239 Speaker 5: So I've been waiting with baited breath to see did 487 00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:03,439 Speaker 5: they have any fun during this voterama? But it doesn't. 488 00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:06,199 Speaker 2: You know, I saw a lot of boxes of what 489 00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:09,400 Speaker 2: is it? We the pizza? That's the place, right, the pizza. 490 00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:12,240 Speaker 2: May I may have seen some bottles of wine, but 491 00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:13,280 Speaker 2: I won't go on the record. 492 00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:19,080 Speaker 5: Don't say anything, you know. The reality is is that 493 00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:21,800 Speaker 5: this came out the way we all expected it to 494 00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:26,159 Speaker 5: a party line vote. Democrats did what they needed to do, 495 00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:29,040 Speaker 5: which is ask Republicans to take some hard votes, and 496 00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:32,480 Speaker 5: they took them. But the question now there're several. Number 497 00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:35,920 Speaker 5: one is does Plan B become Plan A or can 498 00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:39,080 Speaker 5: the House really move forward with this one bill? And 499 00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:41,679 Speaker 5: of course, the big thing that's hanging over all of 500 00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:45,000 Speaker 5: this is Donald Trump's promise just the other day again 501 00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:49,160 Speaker 5: not to touch Medicaid and the reality of the numbers 502 00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:52,640 Speaker 5: which make it very difficult to imagine how you can 503 00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:56,360 Speaker 5: get to the trillions of dollars you need without touching Medicaid. 504 00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:58,640 Speaker 5: And so that's what we're going to be waiting for. 505 00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:01,200 Speaker 5: And all of the pressure and the onus is now 506 00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:03,359 Speaker 5: on Mike Johnson, as it usually is. 507 00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:07,240 Speaker 2: A couple of Republicans actually joined I kid, Genie, but 508 00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:09,080 Speaker 2: a couple of Republicans joined Democrats. 509 00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:09,880 Speaker 3: Rick. 510 00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:12,200 Speaker 2: You may not be surprised to see Susan Collins one 511 00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:15,800 Speaker 2: of them, But Josh Holly was the other, backing a 512 00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:19,040 Speaker 2: Democratic amendment that would prohibit tax cuts for wealthy Americans 513 00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:23,359 Speaker 2: if Medicaid funding is cut. Does that give us a 514 00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:26,720 Speaker 2: sense of what might happen next in the House version? 515 00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:30,800 Speaker 6: Yeah, I think that Josh Holly in this case is 516 00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:33,919 Speaker 6: the canary and the mind shaft. I think, you know, 517 00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:37,119 Speaker 6: he makes a point that is not lost on every 518 00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:39,439 Speaker 6: Republican in the Senate. And part of the reason that 519 00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:44,679 Speaker 6: they're doing this two step reconciliation is because they agree 520 00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:47,320 Speaker 6: with Donald Trump. They don't want to touch that Medicare 521 00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:53,919 Speaker 6: Medicaid payment. And what's buried inside of the House strategy is, 522 00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:57,639 Speaker 6: you know, almost a trillion dollars in Medicaid cuts. Now 523 00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:00,919 Speaker 6: nobody on the Senate side knows how to reconcile that, 524 00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:04,080 Speaker 6: and I think, frankly, I was a little bit surprised 525 00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:09,080 Speaker 6: that you didn't have more Republicans joining Holly in that vote, 526 00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:13,040 Speaker 6: because they they will all tell you that this is 527 00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:16,880 Speaker 6: not where they're taking their legislation. They'll look at the 528 00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:20,560 Speaker 6: tax bill and find pay fors along the way, but 529 00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:22,600 Speaker 6: it's not going to be the gutting of Medicaid like 530 00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:26,800 Speaker 6: the House Republicans have done. So it just reinforces the 531 00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:30,080 Speaker 6: Senate strategy, frankly, as being more sound. 532 00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:33,800 Speaker 2: How about that Genie Speaker Johnson, you already said, is 533 00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:36,240 Speaker 2: this work cut out for him? I mean, this could 534 00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:39,120 Speaker 2: be impossible, but he says he's Steve Scalise, Tom Emmer. 535 00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:41,320 Speaker 2: They have plans to get their resolution on the floor 536 00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:41,760 Speaker 2: next week. 537 00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:42,800 Speaker 3: Could that pass. 538 00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:47,879 Speaker 5: It could pass, but it's going to be very, very difficult. 539 00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:51,240 Speaker 5: I mean if you are a Republican in a moderate district, 540 00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:54,639 Speaker 5: and several friends of this show, for instance, Nicole Malia 541 00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:57,680 Speaker 5: Takis has already said she's leaning no on this budget 542 00:27:57,680 --> 00:28:02,240 Speaker 5: resolution because you are a essentially walking yourself out of 543 00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:02,840 Speaker 5: a job. 544 00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:03,399 Speaker 4: You know. 545 00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:05,879 Speaker 5: One of the reasons we keep talking about that Republicans 546 00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:08,480 Speaker 5: have gone along with Donald Trump and the Trump administration 547 00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:11,399 Speaker 5: on so much is that they fear a primary. But 548 00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:15,439 Speaker 5: the reality for these moderates is also they fear what 549 00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:18,760 Speaker 5: is going to be the commercials that showed that they 550 00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:23,760 Speaker 5: were responsible for cutting medicaid and services to their constituents 551 00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:27,800 Speaker 5: so that the wealthy could get an extended and expanded 552 00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:30,399 Speaker 5: tax cut. And that is not a winning message. And 553 00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:33,960 Speaker 5: so Democrats are on one corner salvating about this, hoping 554 00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:37,760 Speaker 5: they continue forward marching. And you've got people like Maliatakis, 555 00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:40,640 Speaker 5: and she's not alone in others who are from districts 556 00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:45,800 Speaker 5: where they simply can't afford to make those kinds of decisions. 557 00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:49,440 Speaker 5: And so I think it's very unlikely that the House 558 00:28:49,560 --> 00:28:52,400 Speaker 5: is able to wean this together. And let's not forget 559 00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:55,840 Speaker 5: all the other promises that Donald Trump has made about 560 00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:58,720 Speaker 5: things he wants to see in this bill. So could 561 00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:01,400 Speaker 5: it happen? I suppose it could, but it is going 562 00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:04,360 Speaker 5: to be very damaging for Republicans in the midterm. 563 00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:08,040 Speaker 2: We have breaking news here across in the terminal, and 564 00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:09,920 Speaker 2: it brings us back to a story I believe the 565 00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:13,080 Speaker 2: three of us were talking about right at this time yesterday, 566 00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:16,840 Speaker 2: remembering that Judge dale Hoe was set to make a 567 00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:21,040 Speaker 2: ruling on this effort by the Department of Justice to 568 00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:24,320 Speaker 2: throw out the corruption charges against New York City Mayor 569 00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:27,720 Speaker 2: Eric Adams, which then set off this whole series of 570 00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:31,560 Speaker 2: events involving the governor. The judge chose not to make 571 00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:35,400 Speaker 2: a ruling yesterday and has just ordered a probe of 572 00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:39,760 Speaker 2: Donald Trump's Department of Justice motion to dismiss the case. 573 00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:41,880 Speaker 2: This is just breaking right now, and we're going to 574 00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:45,080 Speaker 2: be learning more about it through the day here, Rick. 575 00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:47,840 Speaker 2: But now that the ruling has been made, did Governor 576 00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:50,640 Speaker 2: Hulkel make the right move yesterday by setting up these 577 00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:53,880 Speaker 2: so called guardrails and not moving to throw him out 578 00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:55,240 Speaker 2: of office? 579 00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:57,520 Speaker 6: Yeah? I think I was pretty outspoken yesually. When you 580 00:29:57,520 --> 00:30:01,400 Speaker 6: asked you that question, I thought you sure threw this up. 581 00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:05,160 Speaker 6: I think she sticking her nose in New York City politics, 582 00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:10,120 Speaker 6: should have decided to one of two things, yank the 583 00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:13,160 Speaker 6: mayor and create a vacuum that can be filled through 584 00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:16,960 Speaker 6: the election this year, or keep her nose out and 585 00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:22,080 Speaker 6: criticize but stay put in Albany. The mess she's created 586 00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:26,080 Speaker 6: now is sort of a halfway measure that upsets everybody, frankly, 587 00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:33,240 Speaker 6: and may be completely scuttled by this judge's potential to 588 00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:38,400 Speaker 6: undermine the Department of Justice's case, you know, being thrown out. 589 00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:43,320 Speaker 6: So this is a faster moving piece of information news 590 00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:46,160 Speaker 6: then I think the governor probably predicted it would be, 591 00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:49,760 Speaker 6: but her actions indicate that she's just not ready for 592 00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:50,320 Speaker 6: prime time. 593 00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:54,000 Speaker 2: Well, you were very clear about that yesterday, and we 594 00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:56,480 Speaker 2: see the headline of the New York Times Genie facing 595 00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:59,960 Speaker 2: Trump's threats, New York's governor adopts a Rambo at its. 596 00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:06,120 Speaker 2: She actually invoked Rambo yesterday, Sylvester Stallone saying that Trump 597 00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:11,000 Speaker 2: would answer for drawing first blood. Does your opinion on 598 00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:14,400 Speaker 2: her action hear her decision change it all based on 599 00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:18,440 Speaker 2: this judge's motion today, No. 600 00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:20,480 Speaker 5: Not my opinion. And you're right about the language when 601 00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:23,280 Speaker 5: she spoke yesterday, I listened very carefully. It was some 602 00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:26,040 Speaker 5: of the toughest language we have heard. She described herself 603 00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:29,360 Speaker 5: as a vanguard against the attacks by the president. I 604 00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:31,920 Speaker 5: mean to hear this and to think about the fact 605 00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:34,560 Speaker 5: that New York State and New York City are now 606 00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:37,120 Speaker 5: pitted off against the President of the United States in 607 00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:40,959 Speaker 5: this way. This is a national, if not international story. 608 00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:43,959 Speaker 5: What is going on here. I am very surprised that 609 00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:46,840 Speaker 5: the judge came out Judge Hoe and said that he 610 00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:50,280 Speaker 5: is going to take more time. And I just heard 611 00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:52,640 Speaker 5: this from you, Joe, so I haven't heard what he 612 00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:56,360 Speaker 5: actually said. But keep in mind, we will hear attacks 613 00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:59,760 Speaker 5: from this White House on Judge Hoe. He used to 614 00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:04,000 Speaker 5: work for the ACLU. They will describe him once again 615 00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:07,200 Speaker 5: like we have heard, probably unfairly as far as I know, 616 00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:10,120 Speaker 5: as somebody who is doing the bidding of Democrats and 617 00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:13,600 Speaker 5: liberal Democrats in the city. I'm not saying I believe that. 618 00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:16,920 Speaker 5: I'm saying we will hear that rhetoric. You know, his 619 00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:20,720 Speaker 5: role here was very limited. I'm not sure how you 620 00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:24,760 Speaker 5: go forward as a judge and say that, yeah, get 621 00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:28,800 Speaker 5: more information, but can you require the DOJ to prosecute 622 00:32:28,800 --> 00:32:32,120 Speaker 5: when they've said they don't want to. I'm hard pressed 623 00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:35,120 Speaker 5: to imagine that's the case. But from the democratic side, 624 00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:39,160 Speaker 5: what we're hearing is many New Yorkers are saying, Kathy Hochel, 625 00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:42,440 Speaker 5: you know, these courts are the first to stand up 626 00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:45,480 Speaker 5: as a bulwark against what they see as a ravage, 627 00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:49,360 Speaker 5: a chainsaw as you were just talking about that Elon 628 00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:51,960 Speaker 5: Musk is taking to the federal government from Donald Trump 629 00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:54,880 Speaker 5: and his team. I don't think the law fair notion 630 00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:58,280 Speaker 5: works so well for them politically, but they feel like 631 00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:02,080 Speaker 5: they want somebody to respond. So this is what they 632 00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:05,160 Speaker 5: are getting. And I am very surprised that the judge 633 00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:06,840 Speaker 5: said he's going to take more time on this. 634 00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:12,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, we're going to have a probe into this effort. Apparently, 635 00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:16,640 Speaker 2: the guardrails Rick that Kathy Hochel announced following our talk 636 00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:19,200 Speaker 2: yesterday when we heard that some sort of sanction might 637 00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:22,120 Speaker 2: be coming include a special ig for New York City 638 00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:25,040 Speaker 2: Affairs and Inspector General. Also gives the Controller, who we 639 00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:28,320 Speaker 2: had on the late edition of Balance of Power last evening, 640 00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:33,560 Speaker 2: an independent authority to commence litigation against the federal government 641 00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:36,360 Speaker 2: when necessary. The New York's going to start suing here, 642 00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:37,440 Speaker 2: what's this going to look like? 643 00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:39,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm a bit of a mess. 644 00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:43,800 Speaker 6: You know, you wonder why Kathy Hochel didn't spend more 645 00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:49,479 Speaker 6: time attacking the Biden administration when COVID restrictions incapacitated our 646 00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:51,800 Speaker 6: city and a lot of people moved down to Florida, 647 00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:56,840 Speaker 6: or when the you know, incredible amount of financial distress 648 00:33:56,920 --> 00:34:01,200 Speaker 6: caused by inflation created a hardship for her constituents in 649 00:34:01,240 --> 00:34:03,400 Speaker 6: New York. And you know, I just got to believe 650 00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:06,520 Speaker 6: that so much of this is just kind of you know, 651 00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:09,480 Speaker 6: political rhetoric that's not going to mount much. I mean, yeah, 652 00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:12,439 Speaker 6: let's go sue the federal government, you know, knock yourselves out. 653 00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:16,080 Speaker 6: As if there aren't enough lawsuits against the federal government 654 00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:19,200 Speaker 6: right now today, probably more than they've ever seen in 655 00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:23,120 Speaker 6: fifty years. In the first month of this administration hadn't 656 00:34:23,120 --> 00:34:26,920 Speaker 6: slowed him down a bit. So look, I mean, this 657 00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:29,719 Speaker 6: idea of guardrails, so we're going to have an ig 658 00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:34,080 Speaker 6: with no real power to start taking a look at 659 00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:37,239 Speaker 6: Eric Adams. Everybody knows what Eric Adams has been up to. 660 00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:39,880 Speaker 6: I mean, this has been the most well publicized corruption 661 00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:44,640 Speaker 6: incident in New York city history. And you know, news 662 00:34:44,640 --> 00:34:47,560 Speaker 6: traveled fast on this, and he's in the position where 663 00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:49,560 Speaker 6: that's all he's going to do between now and November 664 00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:52,560 Speaker 6: is answer for those charges, even though he's not going 665 00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:55,719 Speaker 6: to be prosecuted by the federal government. And and so. 666 00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:58,200 Speaker 3: I just spend the next four years ago little. 667 00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:06,000 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make 668 00:35:06,040 --> 00:35:09,000 Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 669 00:35:09,080 --> 00:35:11,680 Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find 670 00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:15,000 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 671 00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:16,720 Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.