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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you? Welcome into a Tuesday

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Speaker 1: morning episode of the Daily Juice podcast with me Matt

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Speaker 1: Perolta at Sports Talk Matt to follow me across all socials.

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Speaker 1: why didn't you day last night? We'll get the under

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Speaker 1: in the game for the Jets and the Bills quite easily.

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Speaker 1: Although it went to overtime, we still survived that under

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Speaker 1: forty five and a half, so we got that right,

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Speaker 1: and then baseball was a wash zero to two, so

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Speaker 1: the heater is over. However, you are requesting a couple

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Speaker 1: of guys requested on the Discord channel bettingpros dot Com

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Speaker 1: slash chat to join the Discord channel, saying, Matt, would

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Speaker 1: you do a totals Tuesday? Because you did totals Monday?

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Speaker 1: Would you do totals Tuesday? Yes, I'm doing a totals Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: although I'm going to do it a little bit differently

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Speaker 1: because we have to bet baseball. Got baseball Tuesdays and Wednesdays,

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Speaker 1: and then we'll get into Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday

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Speaker 1: again for football. But I'm going to be a little

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Speaker 1: bit unique in exotic. Oftentimes when I get exotic, I

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Speaker 1: screw myself and I don't do very well. So if

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Speaker 1: you want to fade the bets, I'll mind it. But

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Speaker 1: I'm bored with baseball. It's September. Let's fade pitchers. So

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Speaker 1: I'm fading pitchers today, and I've got some teams totals

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Speaker 1: and I've got some first five totals. I want to

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Speaker 1: get into here today for baseball rather than betting full

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Speaker 1: game totals or sides and totals whatever. I'm just trying

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Speaker 1: to entertain myself with this because well it's baseball, and

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Speaker 1: I'm not really loving baseball. But again, oh, I need

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Speaker 1: to go check that out. Have we become profitable yet

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Speaker 1: with baseball? Even though we lost two units to actually

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Speaker 1: two point two units yesterday, Let me see, let me see,

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Speaker 1: let me see, let me see, because we were getting

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Speaker 1: really close to being profitable for baseball, and baseball now

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Speaker 1: has moved. No, we drop down back. Bummer. Okay, we're

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Speaker 1: one eleven and one oh five down one point four units,

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Speaker 1: all right, so we're still losing money in baseball. Is

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Speaker 1: that sick? We've made over two hundred and what two

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Speaker 1: hundred and sixteen bets made, we've lost a unit and

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Speaker 1: a half. It's unbelievable. Baseball is such an unbelievable grind.

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Speaker 1: But NFL football, that's good news there. So that moves

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Speaker 1: back into a good spot with the NFL there, Although

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Speaker 1: I don't know how we're tracking that. We're going to

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Speaker 1: go eat and see. I'm pretty sure I've made more

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Speaker 1: bets than that than what they've got on the record.

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Speaker 1: But five and seven is what they're claiming that the

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Speaker 1: cheat sheet or the tracking has for us for five

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Speaker 1: and seven. I don't know. Maybe that seemed to be

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Speaker 1: a little bit low, although NFL props being three and three.

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Speaker 1: I don't think that's right either. So well, we'll see

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Speaker 1: how that goes with the tracking how it Maybe it

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Speaker 1: needs to catch up a little bit for a couple

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Speaker 1: of days, but regardless, baseball, I'll trust that being Let's see,

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Speaker 1: it looks like, uh oh, I don't know. That's kind

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Speaker 1: of interesting. Oh that's why we switched over. Oh my gosh,

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Speaker 1: we're doing different things now, Okay, that's why, and that's

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Speaker 1: all messed up. Okay, they're doing some different things because

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Speaker 1: I'm not four and twenty six on my twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: two prop bets, and I'm believe that was a career.

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Speaker 1: But I mean, we're breaking it up and now we're

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Speaker 1: just going to go ahead and separate twenty twenty two

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Speaker 1: and twenty twenty three. So if you're somebody who actually

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Speaker 1: paid ten paid attention to this, the bet tracking is

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Speaker 1: all messed up. So I apologize on that, but I

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Speaker 1: don't know what we're doing. But I just noticed that

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Speaker 1: while we're doing on the air. So if you're somebody

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Speaker 1: who likes to follow along, and the win rates and

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Speaker 1: the percentages, they're all messed up. So hopefully we get

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Speaker 1: that corrected and I'll stay off the check and see

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Speaker 1: what's going on. I just noticed that as to what's

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Speaker 1: going on with the tracking. But anyways, before I give

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Speaker 1: you the picks for today, let me say a couple

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Speaker 1: quick things. I've gotten an argument, argument, whatever conversation on

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Speaker 1: Twitter about this. If you bet Aaron Rodgers a prop

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Speaker 1: bet on Aaron Rodgers and you bet it under, should

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Speaker 1: you have cashed last night? The answer is yes, right,

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Speaker 1: you should have cashed. Aaron Rodgers played what three steps?

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Speaker 1: The problem with bet refunds is the following. For those

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Speaker 1: of you who don't understand what I'm taking when I'm

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Speaker 1: saying that refunds are stupid, because if you have an

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Speaker 1: under bet, you should be paid. If you bet over,

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Speaker 1: getting refunded on that over is dumb. That's not gambling.

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Speaker 1: Part of the handicap is the potential for injury. Now

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Speaker 1: it always stinks, right, Oh that's a bummer. But here's

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Speaker 1: the thing. When do you get refunded? What about the

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Speaker 1: running back who gets hurt or the wide receiver who

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Speaker 1: gets hurt? Do you always get your money back? Should

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Speaker 1: you always get your money back if a player gets hurt,

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Speaker 1: Should you automatically always get your money back? The answer

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Speaker 1: is no. It's the high profile, it's the larger how

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Speaker 1: can we get attention type of announcements by the sportsbooks.

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Speaker 1: You should reject. You really should reject this. This is

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Speaker 1: not good because you're the loser, really on this, because

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Speaker 1: they're conditioning you. They're saying, oh, you're going to keep betting,

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Speaker 1: so let's not make you angry. Let go ahead and

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Speaker 1: give you that money back, and you're gonna rebt it

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Speaker 1: because they think you're gonna lose. That's where they're giving

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Speaker 1: you back. Gambling is a zero sum game, winners and losers. Okay,

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Speaker 1: when Aaron Rodgers gets hurt, all the under bet should

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Speaker 1: cash out all of them, not refunding all of them.

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Speaker 1: And I haven't seen it yet. If sports books are

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Speaker 1: refunding all the wagers or paying out the unders and

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Speaker 1: then refunding the overs, because I've seen books do that,

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Speaker 1: that's right, or they refund them all, which is wrong.

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Speaker 1: If you bet under, you should win. This is the

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Speaker 1: problem when you start getting kind of crooked with the

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Speaker 1: whole thing. And deciding who gets what when versus winners

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Speaker 1: and losers. This is the problem with the books that

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Speaker 1: it doesn't make it in Vegas. We don't do that here.

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Speaker 1: It's ridiculous. You walk up to a Vegas counter and say,

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers got hurt? Can I buy money back? They're

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Speaker 1: gonna look at you like you have five heads and say, sorry, sir,

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Speaker 1: burn the ticket, you lost ticket. This is creating a

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Speaker 1: bunch of whining babies that when you don't get it,

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Speaker 1: it's oh, I didn't get refunded. Why didn't get refunded? Sorry, guys,

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Speaker 1: you lost. You bet over on Roger's passing, You bet

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Speaker 1: over on Roger's completions, you bet over on Rogers rushing,

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Speaker 1: whatever you bet he got hurt. Game's over, Your BET's over.

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Speaker 1: You lost. You should want to lose, because then you

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Speaker 1: don't have to wonder next time, are you gonna refund

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Speaker 1: my money? Do I get my money back? Yes? Or no?

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Speaker 1: In the books this time we're like, oh no, that

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Speaker 1: was just that one time. Yeah, that was just that

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Speaker 1: one time. No, no, no, no, We're not always gonna do that.

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Speaker 1: That was just we were being nice. All or nothing either,

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Speaker 1: we're gambling or not. When you gamble and you lose,

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Speaker 1: you lose the money. Now, someone said, what about offering

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Speaker 1: blackjack insurance? What about offering insurance on bets? Don't mind that.

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Speaker 1: That would be neat Don't know how the gaming control

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Speaker 1: boards would handle that, but I don't mind that at all.

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Speaker 1: If I put one hundred dollars down, could I get

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Speaker 1: a ten dollars bet to ensure that if my player

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Speaker 1: gets hurt, I get my money back. Don't mind that

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Speaker 1: at all. That would be kind of a neat angle.

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Speaker 1: That's different because what happens if the player doesn't get hurt,

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Speaker 1: you lose that ten dollars. So it's just something to

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Speaker 1: consider as we go into football season. And why I

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Speaker 1: say that refunds are stupid. It makes a lot of

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Speaker 1: you guys mad. I get it. A lot of you

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Speaker 1: guys like that refund and the books know it's okay.

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Speaker 1: The books are like, oh, let's keep these guys playing.

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Speaker 1: It's important to keep them playing. It's not gambling. If

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Speaker 1: you get your money back when you lose a bet, okay,

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Speaker 1: And it does not make you better or it does

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Speaker 1: not help you as a gambler. It's like a boost,

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Speaker 1: you know how I feel about the boosts right Whenever

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Speaker 1: I see one of my bets getting boosted, I get

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Speaker 1: pissed off. I do not like it because the book's

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Speaker 1: given me something for free. Generally speaking, they're not doing

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Speaker 1: it in my best interest. Just keep that in mind. Okay,

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Speaker 1: have you guys downloaded the Betting pros app yet? You

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Speaker 1: should absolutely be doing this. Check out the new Betting

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Speaker 1: pros app. All new features, community tab a, following feed

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Speaker 1: bet tracking. You get prop bet hit rates as well.

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Speaker 1: Download the Betting pros app in the Apple App Store

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Speaker 1: right now. You guys can see and sort prop bet

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Speaker 1: prop bets and the prop bet cheat sheet, which I

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Speaker 1: use for props went three and one. Using that over

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Speaker 1: the weekend, we hit if you went ahead and I

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Speaker 1: didn't get that on that but I had the Aaron Rodgers, Sorry,

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Speaker 1: I had the Josh Allen to throw a pick. He

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Speaker 1: threw three picks in the game against the Jets. He

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Speaker 1: threw two the year prior three. Josh Allen took the

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Speaker 1: loss on himself. A lot of people were calling for

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Speaker 1: a big regression year with Josh Allen not off to

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Speaker 1: a very good start zero to one. You can find

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Speaker 1: the prop bet cheat sheet on the Betting pros app.

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Speaker 1: The new Betting pros app, which has new features, now

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Speaker 1: available in the App Store in the Apple App Store. Okay,

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Speaker 1: let's start talking a bit about the Houston Astros up

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Speaker 1: against JP Sears. JP Sears and the A's four nothing

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Speaker 1: win yesterday for the A's now a win after a loss,

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Speaker 1: the Astros are pretty good, but after a win, the

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Speaker 1: A's also are pretty good. On the run line. That

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Speaker 1: about betting Astros run line, not going to do that instead.

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Speaker 1: JP Sears on the road has a four point three ERA.

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Speaker 1: He's two and six with amposing batting average of two

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Speaker 1: thirty seven. He gives up fifteen home runs on the road,

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Speaker 1: thirty nine earned runs and eighty one and two thirds

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Speaker 1: innings worth of work. But JP Sears in September has

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Speaker 1: been pretty good two h five batting average, a guy

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Speaker 1: who has looked pretty decent. But most of the games

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Speaker 1: he has pitched have been at home in September, right, actually,

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Speaker 1: both of them have been at home five to two

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Speaker 1: nine two victories. He's given up one earn run in

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Speaker 1: no urn runs at home against Toronto and the Angels. However,

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Speaker 1: on the road he's not been good. Six and two

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Speaker 1: in his last road start, give up six earned runs

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Speaker 1: in six innings worth of work. Time before that five

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Speaker 1: innings worth of work, three earned runs and a seven

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Speaker 1: to five loss. Time before that, he gave up two

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Speaker 1: earned runs and five innings in eight two loss. On

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Speaker 1: the other side, this is where I think offense comes

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Speaker 1: into play. One on JP Sears, who overall is four

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Speaker 1: to eleven with a four point five to one ERA.

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Speaker 1: But on the other side, for the Astros, I'm not

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Speaker 1: in love with who Houston is going to be throwing.

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Speaker 1: It's Justin Verlander. Okay, you might go like Matt really

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Speaker 1: Justin Verlander. Okay, let's talk about where Verlander is at

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Speaker 1: the moment. Okay, at home two one A two ERA,

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Speaker 1: I get it, six and four record two twelve opposing

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Speaker 1: batting average. However, Verlander his last home start gave up

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Speaker 1: six earned runs to the Yankees four home runs at home. Now,

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Speaker 1: he pitched very well against the Red Sox time before that,

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Speaker 1: six innings, no earn runs, but time before that six

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Speaker 1: innings and three earned runs. So the combination of Justin Verlander,

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Speaker 1: who has been a little bit shaky at home and

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Speaker 1: maybe getting a little tired in his older age here

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Speaker 1: in September with JP Sears as well. I'm gonna jump

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Speaker 1: in on the first five over. The first five over

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Speaker 1: is minus one to fifteen over four and a half

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Speaker 1: runs for the A's and the Astros. Now, I need

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Speaker 1: the A's to give me one, Astros to give me four.

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Speaker 1: I think that happens. Okay, Astros got blanked yesterday. I

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Speaker 1: think they bring their hitting shoes here. Maybe we get

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Speaker 1: lucky and we get two from the A's and then

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Speaker 1: we get three from the Astros and it's a three

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Speaker 1: to two after five over one fifteen. I'm gonna bet

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Speaker 1: it A's Astros over four and a half runs at

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Speaker 1: minus one fifteen one point one five. Ye, it's to

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Speaker 1: jump in on that, okay, Orioles John Means, Welcome back.

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Speaker 1: John Means, at one point in time was the ace

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Speaker 1: of the staff for the Baltimore Orioles, left handed pitcher.

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Speaker 1: He's thirty years old now coming back off Tommy John surgery,

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Speaker 1: had a couple of rehab starts, and now joins the

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Speaker 1: big league club right in time for the playoffs. This

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Speaker 1: could be an absolute monster story for the Baltimore Orioles

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Speaker 1: if John Means comes back and if he's he's either

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Speaker 1: like he's even like eighty percent of what John Means

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Speaker 1: was before the Tommy John surgery. Okay, the Orioles are

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Speaker 1: going to be playing. Adam Waynwright is pitching for the

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Speaker 1: Saint Louis Cardinals. I don't know what to do with

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Speaker 1: John Means. He could be phenomenal. He might get lit

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Speaker 1: up too, but he might be phenomenal. I want to

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Speaker 1: stay away from John Means. What I do know is

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Speaker 1: that Adam Waynwright stinks three and eleven eight point one

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Speaker 1: nine ERA. Every time I've gone to fade Adam Waynwright,

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Speaker 1: it's burned. But I'm coming back on this one because

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Speaker 1: on the road he's done eight point seven to nine ERA,

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Speaker 1: opposing batting average of three point fifty one. He's two

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Speaker 1: and four on the year, forty one earned runs in

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Speaker 1: forty two innings worth of work. In September, his ERA

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Speaker 1: is nine point five to three. In August it was

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Speaker 1: ten point eighty nine Waynwright. In the games he has

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Speaker 1: pitched on the road, he's given up six earned runs

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Speaker 1: and five and two thirds. He have six earned runs

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Speaker 1: to the Pirates in four and two thirds eight earned

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Speaker 1: runs against the Royals in one innings worth of work

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Speaker 1: on the road, he's just been atrocious, okay. At home

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Speaker 1: he's been not okay. Last home start he was good

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Speaker 1: four and a four to one loss to San Diego.

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Speaker 1: He give a one earned run in six innings worth

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Speaker 1: of work. But I think given the fact that Waynwright

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Speaker 1: has been horrible on the road, they scored eleven runs

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Speaker 1: yesterday the Orioles did. Their team total is set at

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Speaker 1: five and a half. It's minus one twenty to the

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Speaker 1: over five and a half. You can shop around and

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Speaker 1: find this look. I think the Orioles are gonna score

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Speaker 1: a bunch of runs here in this game. They're at home.

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Speaker 1: Wayne Wright may give it up himself. I think the

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Speaker 1: bullpen could give it up as well. I don't want

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Speaker 1: to touch John Means because I don't know what John

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Speaker 1: Means is going to be. After the Orioles scored eleven

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Speaker 1: runs yesterday at home, I think they continue to score.

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Speaker 1: The Orioles are still a very good team at home.

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Speaker 1: On to the over thirty three thirty and six to

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Speaker 1: the over. You look at overall runs scored per game

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Speaker 1: at home for the Orioles, they are currently the average

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Speaker 1: what four point six to eight runs per game at

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Speaker 1: home overall five point one to three runs per game.

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Speaker 1: With Raynwright on the mound, we're going over min's one

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Speaker 1: twenty over five and a half runs team total for

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Speaker 1: the Baltimore Orioles up against Adam Wayne Wright. Same conversation

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Speaker 1: with Chris Flexen for the Colorado Rockies. He is going

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Speaker 1: against the Cubs here today. The Cubs are team on

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Speaker 1: the road. They score more at home than they do

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Speaker 1: on the road, but this is Corsfield. Four point eighty

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Speaker 1: seven runs per game on the road, five point one

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Speaker 1: to nine at home for the Cups. However, Chris Flexen

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Speaker 1: at home he has a five point eight nine ERA.

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Speaker 1: He's zero and four with a two seventy six opposing

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Speaker 1: batting average, thirty one earned runs given up in forty

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Speaker 1: seven eighting's worth of work. In September, his ERA is

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Speaker 1: eleven point two five oh to one with an opposing

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Speaker 1: batting average of three fourteen. Chris Flexen so far here

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Speaker 1: in the month of September, on the road, he gave

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Speaker 1: up six He had six earned runs in two and

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Speaker 1: a third in a twelve to five loss to Arizona.

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Speaker 1: His last home start, he gave up four earned runs,

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Speaker 1: three home runs in five and two thirds in a

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Speaker 1: thirteen to nine loss to Toronto five to four loss

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Speaker 1: to the Orioles in his third to last start, that

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Speaker 1: was five innings, two earned runs, but that was on

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Speaker 1: the road. The home start after that was before that

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Speaker 1: with six innings, seven hits, one earned run, but the

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Speaker 1: bullpen gave up nine ten to five loss. Team total

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Speaker 1: for the Cubs is six and a half. Three of

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Speaker 1: the last four games started by Chris Flexen. The pitching staff,

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Speaker 1: including Flexin has given up thirteen sorry twelve thirteen and

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Speaker 1: ten earned runs. This is a high number, but I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna bet it anyway. Cubs over their team total six

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Speaker 1: and a half at minus one fifteen. The Cubs scored

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Speaker 1: five runs yesterday in a five to four win. I

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Speaker 1: think they score even more here today with flexing on

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Speaker 1: the mound, Cubs over six and a half runs, they

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Speaker 1: score seven runs. I know it seems like a lot,

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Speaker 1: but it's course field, and with flexing on the mound,

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Speaker 1: I expect the Cubs to score a lot of runs here,

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Speaker 1: either against flexing or the bullpen. Minus one fifteen over

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Speaker 1: six and a half. So we went under yesterday and

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Speaker 1: went one and two. Let's bet overs today and let's

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Speaker 1: see what happens here all in baseball. However, no football

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Speaker 1: to save us at this time. So you know when

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Speaker 1: you go eight zho to one, you're due to have

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Speaker 1: a cool off. I'm oing to this week on baseball,

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Speaker 1: fade away if you would like. You're not going to

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Speaker 1: make me angry at all here. This is baseball. We're

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Speaker 1: playing out the string until we get to Major League

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Speaker 1: Baseball in the playoffs and we get to more. You know,

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Speaker 1: we're close to get into hockey. We're about a month

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Speaker 1: and a half away from hockey, which is phenomenal. So

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Speaker 1: the countdown has begun for hockey and for the NBA.

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Speaker 1: Three bets going here for today over four and a

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Speaker 1: half first five A's and the Astros at minus one

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Speaker 1: point fifteen over five and a half team total, the

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Speaker 1: Orioles at minus one twenty and over six and a

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Speaker 1: half team total for the Cubs. Orioles are hosting the Cardinals.

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Speaker 1: Cubs are at the Rockies here for a Tuesday. My

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Speaker 1: name is Matt Pearls at Sports Tuck. Matt follow me

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Speaker 1: across all socials, this podcast, the Daily Juice, every single

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Speaker 1: morning being brought to you by Omaha Sakes dot Com