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Speaker 2: Here on the Friday edition of Ballots of Power. You
Speaker 2: made it to the threshold of the weekend. And we
Speaker 2: do have news with our eyes on the campaign lot
Speaker 2: to talk about today. We say that every day and yes, Charlie,
Speaker 2: at the end of each week we say what a
Speaker 2: week that's going to be the case straight through the election?
Speaker 2: Dare I say the rest of the year and beyond.
Speaker 2: Donald Trump's in California Ask yourself why it's not on
Speaker 2: the list of swing states. But he will resolve his
Speaker 2: day in Las Vegas, which very much is a late
Speaker 2: rally ten pm Eastern for Trump in Vegas. The Democratic
Speaker 2: ticket focused on swing states today, laser focus on the
Speaker 2: Blue Wall for Kamala Harris Johnstown, Pennsylvania today, then onto
Speaker 2: Wilke's bar or Barry, depending on who you ask. Jonathan
Speaker 2: Tomorrow will give us a lesson and Tim Walls making
Speaker 2: his way through Michigan and Wisconsin today. You can write
Speaker 2: this stuff before I tell you where they are. This
Speaker 2: is what it's going to be for the next eight weeks,
Speaker 2: of course, as we consider the idea of whether we'll
Speaker 2: have another debate. And here in Washington, it just got
Speaker 2: real quiet. Did you just sail right into work today?
Speaker 2: They're gone again. The House and Senate left town last
Speaker 2: night without a plan to fund the government, which will
Speaker 2: run out of money on September thirtieth. So they came
Speaker 2: back this week, they got nothing done, and they went home.
Speaker 2: Jonathan Tomorrow covers Congress for a living at Bloomberg Government,
Speaker 2: and he's with us right now.
Speaker 3: Jonathan.
Speaker 2: This is a familiar feeling, not only watching everyone leave
Speaker 2: with no progress, but also staring down the bear of
Speaker 2: a shutdown that I keep hearing isn't going to happen.
Speaker 3: What can you tell us?
Speaker 4: Yeah, like you just said, there wasn't much progress this week.
Speaker 4: There was very little hook to note that actually happened
Speaker 4: in the Capitol. You know they were back from recess,
Speaker 4: but you couldn't necessarily tell. But still there is a
Speaker 4: still feeling, there's this tension that there is the election
Speaker 4: writer around the corner about At the same time, that
Speaker 4: almost diffuses the tension because there's a belief that no
Speaker 4: party leader is going to bring their party into a
Speaker 4: shutdown this close to election day, with so many races
Speaker 4: still in the balance, there's a feeling that eventually they'll
Speaker 4: get to a compromise and it'll be a short term
Speaker 4: spending resolution that lasts into some time into December.
Speaker 2: Does this debate jeopardize potentially billions of dollars in federal
Speaker 2: disaster relief funds? I know Senator Brian Schatz is pretty
Speaker 2: worried about that. The Democrat from Hawaii, of course calling
Speaker 2: for help in life where the wildfire took place, But
Speaker 2: we are in the middle of a hurricane season right now.
Speaker 3: Jonathan. Is this a problem?
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean it's a problem that Democrats are pointing
Speaker 5: to that if you just continue the current spending levels,
Speaker 5: then you're not gonna put in the money that the
Speaker 5: additional money that could be needed to deal with disasters
Speaker 5: that come along the way, that hurricanes and other natural disasters.
Speaker 5: And it's one of several items where Democrats are saying, look,
Speaker 5: if you just keep the government running on its current levels,
Speaker 5: you know we're not providing some of the things that
Speaker 5: are needed to there, renew programs that are set to expire,
Speaker 5: or things like these disasters. So that's one of their
Speaker 5: main talking points about why they are arguing against a
Speaker 5: six month resolution that Speaker Mike Johnson has proposed, just
Speaker 5: say that it would leave the government on autopilot too long.
Speaker 2: Well, so if we kick the can you know, three months,
Speaker 2: six months, I don't know what the duration ends up
Speaker 2: being here, can you count on then a supplemental request,
Speaker 2: an emergency funding request for disaster relief, maybe even a
Speaker 2: supplemental for the Pentagon and the lame duck session.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean it's possible they could try to attach
Speaker 5: it to a short term bill that passes this month,
Speaker 5: but certainly at the end of the year. There's a
Speaker 5: long tradition, as you know, of the Christmas time kind
Speaker 5: of leading towards compromises. A lot of lawmakers have already
Speaker 5: are retiring or they've lost their reelections. Everybody in the
Speaker 5: building is more or less looking to get home for
Speaker 5: the holidays, and it suddenly motivates people to maybe cut
Speaker 5: some deals and reach agreements. And there's a bunch of
Speaker 5: must pass things that always pile up at the end
Speaker 5: of the year, this spending bill would be another one
Speaker 5: that would get added to it, and it tends to
Speaker 5: grease the wheels when everybody knows that there's a lot
Speaker 5: that has to get done and little time to do it,
Speaker 5: or else they end up staying here for Christmas and
Speaker 5: New Year's.
Speaker 2: Well, Jonathan, I know you're also working the campaign trail
Speaker 2: and covering a lot of really important races. You might
Speaker 2: have seen what Cook had to say about Montana overnight.
Speaker 2: In fact, Jessica Taylor is going to be on right
Speaker 2: after our conversation here. How many races are you looking
Speaker 2: at that are going to decide who controls the Senate
Speaker 2: following this cycle, I.
Speaker 5: Mean the Senate. There's probably a good half dozen races
Speaker 5: that are potentials, but the ones that are really at
Speaker 5: the top are the Montana Senate race that you just mentioned,
Speaker 5: in the Ohio Senate race with Senator Shared Brown defending
Speaker 5: that seat as a Democrat. Those are really the two
Speaker 5: biggest ones where those are pretty red states and Republicans
Speaker 5: have a strong chance of winning. If they don't win
Speaker 5: those states, then then that's almost a political disaster for Republicans.
Speaker 5: But they're favored to certainly win Montana, possibly win Ohio,
Speaker 5: and then after that it gets tougher for Republicans. Democrats
Speaker 5: are still playing defense just about everywhere else, but they
Speaker 5: have some pretty tested incumbents in states that are either
Speaker 5: slightly blue leaning or pretty right down the middle. But
Speaker 5: you know, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada all have potentially tough races,
Speaker 5: but those are just less difficult Horaine for Democrats in
Speaker 5: Ohio or Montana.
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Government's Congress reporter Jonathan Tomorrow, Jonathan, it's great to
Speaker 2: see you.
Speaker 3: Thank you so much for the insights here.
Speaker 2: This is why so many people are talking about the
Speaker 2: likelihood of a Republican Senate and maybe a Democratic House.
Speaker 3: Maybe they both flip in this cycle.
Speaker 2: The note that dropped from the Cook political report, though,
Speaker 2: is what people are talking about today in Washington. Jessica
Speaker 2: Taylor writes, quote, Republicans are now an even heavier favorite
Speaker 2: to win back control of the Senate, regardless of the
Speaker 2: results at the top of the ticket. That's the important
Speaker 2: take here. And yeah, we're looking at Montana specifically. As
Speaker 2: Cook moves the state, this Senate race from toss up
Speaker 2: to lean r. This is the Senator John Tester race
Speaker 2: of course, running for his political life here against Republican
Speaker 2: Tim Sheehey, I'm glad to say that Jessica Taylor is
Speaker 2: with us right now from Cook Senate and Governor's editor
Speaker 2: at the Cook Political Report. Jessica, it's been way too long.
Speaker 2: Congratulations on driving the conversation today. I'm just curious to
Speaker 2: hear your rationale on this race in Montana.
Speaker 6: Why well, I think it's just the math eventually catches
Speaker 6: up with you in some of these really red stays.
Speaker 6: As Jonathan was saying, you have Democrats are essentially playing
Speaker 6: defense everywhere, but nowhere more so than I think in
Speaker 6: Montana and Ohio. You know, if we're looking at where
Speaker 6: the Senate stands right now, Democrats have a fifty one
Speaker 6: to forty nine majority, but we have to remember that
Speaker 6: with West Virginia with Joe Manchin retiring, that seat is
Speaker 6: going to go Republican. So we start at fifty to fifty.
Speaker 6: So even if Trump were to win reelection when another term,
Speaker 6: then Republicans would control that with breaking with the Vice
Speaker 6: president breaking the tie. But with Montana moving in that direction,
Speaker 6: we have seen pulling out in the past month or
Speaker 6: so that has shown his Republican challenger, former Navy Seal
Speaker 6: Tim Sheehey, opening up a slight lead. But more importantly,
Speaker 6: when I'm talking with sources in the state, it's just
Speaker 6: that Tester he's sort of been their white whale. You know,
Speaker 6: he was elected in two thousand and six in the
Speaker 6: Democratic wave when they took back the Senate, defeated Republican
Speaker 6: Senator of Conrad Burns. They've run against him in twelve,
Speaker 6: they've run against him in eighteen with arguably weaker candidates
Speaker 6: than they have right now, and they've never sort of
Speaker 6: been able to get him underwater, while his favorables at
Speaker 6: this point are underwater.
Speaker 5: And I think, just look at this.
Speaker 6: It's the six It's a state that Trump won by
Speaker 6: sixteen points, and in a presidential year, I think this
Speaker 6: where midterm euro would get a different conversation like when
Speaker 6: Tester was able to win in twenty eighteen. In twenty twelve,
Speaker 6: when Obama was atop the ticket, it's a state that
Speaker 6: he won by thirteen and while Tester ran ahead of
Speaker 6: the ballot by seven points, running ahead by double digits
Speaker 6: this time, I think is just that much.
Speaker 3: Harder interesting to hear you talk about Montana.
Speaker 2: Maybe you can speak to why Kamala Harris at the
Speaker 2: top of the ticket does not move this race the
Speaker 2: way it might be other down ballot races.
Speaker 6: I think it's just that Montana just becomes a rheter
Speaker 6: and redder state. I mean, she's not going to be
Speaker 6: playing there like they are in other states. And I
Speaker 6: think that it's just fundamentally you know, another difference I
Speaker 6: think is that you've seen a lot more conservative people
Speaker 6: moving into the state from sort of seeking more of
Speaker 6: a conservative refuge from places.
Speaker 5: Like California, Oregon, and Washington.
Speaker 6: They refer to them as sort of the cows moving
Speaker 6: in in fact, and you know, Tester's really underscoring that
Speaker 6: he's been there for generations. But when he was elected
Speaker 6: in two thousand and six, over half of Montana's were
Speaker 6: native Montana's. Now that's a little over a third, So
Speaker 6: you know, he sort of hits shee he is being
Speaker 6: in authentically Montana, not you know, sort of a dude rancher,
Speaker 6: not a real rancher. But I think with again people
Speaker 6: moving into the state, I think just those Montana roots
Speaker 6: don't matter as much as they once did.
Speaker 2: Well, they used to call George W. Bush's I think
Speaker 2: it was the first lady call him a windshield cowboy.
Speaker 2: So you mentioned Joe Manchon of West Virginia. Boy, you know,
Speaker 2: Democrats just can't seem to shake Joe mansion. He's of
Speaker 2: course left the party and independent now and he's weighing
Speaker 2: in on the race Maryland, which Cook of course rates
Speaker 2: as likely d that's Angela also Brooks. If you live
Speaker 2: around Washington, boy, you can't hide from these ads, from
Speaker 2: either of them. So Joe Manchin Back's governor, Larry Hogan,
Speaker 2: the Republican in the state of Maryland.
Speaker 3: Does it matter who's this for?
Speaker 6: I mean that does overlap was sort of the western
Speaker 6: Maryland media market there into West Virginia, but I think
Speaker 6: that's a more conservative area of Maryland.
Speaker 3: Really.
Speaker 6: I think what also Brooks has to do is this
Speaker 6: is where she is incredibly helped by the top of
Speaker 6: the ticket. We talked about just the lean that you
Speaker 6: have to overcome and a Trump plus sixteen state, well,
Speaker 6: Maryland is a Trump is a Biden plus thirty three state.
Speaker 6: So Larry Hogan would have to pull off just an
Speaker 6: even bigger feat than John Tester would. Granted this as
Speaker 6: an open seat, and yes, he's one state wide before
Speaker 6: is governor. But fundamentally, voters look at a vote for
Speaker 6: governor and a vote for vote for Senate very differently,
Speaker 6: and you can see that in the ads that also
Speaker 6: Brooks and Democrats are running underscoring that. Okay, you may
Speaker 6: have liked Larry Hogan, he would be a vote for
Speaker 6: Republican and a Republican controlled Senate, and you're going to
Speaker 6: see them, as you mentioned, we've already seen those on
Speaker 6: the air here in the DMV media market that they're
Speaker 6: hammering that home. And I think with you, about a
Speaker 6: third of the electorate is black in Maryland, and she
Speaker 6: really also Brooks really needs to run up the score,
Speaker 6: particularly in Baltimore. Kamala Harris, a black woman atop the ticket,
Speaker 6: certainly helps also Brooks in that regard.
Speaker 3: Okay, so that's really important.
Speaker 2: Think of the difference between what we're talking about with
Speaker 2: Jessica here Maryland versus Montana, and the impact that Kamala
Speaker 2: Harris can have. It's limited, obviously, but this is one
Speaker 2: of the bluest states in the country, Jessica, and I
Speaker 2: wonder if Democrats are starting to get nervous we're seeing
Speaker 2: I mean, we're buried with ads from both of them.
Speaker 2: But I read this morning the backers Evangela Also Brooks
Speaker 2: have nearly tripled their TV, broadcast and digital ad buys
Speaker 2: this month compared to August.
Speaker 3: What does that tell you about this race?
Speaker 6: Well, I think it's just the Larry Hogan is better
Speaker 6: known than Angela's Brooks, and angel Also Brooks needs to
Speaker 6: increase her name ID, introduce herself to voters. You know,
Speaker 6: she won that primary over another incredibly well financed opponent
Speaker 6: and David Tron who's pent sixty two million dollars of
Speaker 6: his own money.
Speaker 7: But people have been.
Speaker 6: Used to voting for Larry Hogan, so you can't take
Speaker 6: anything for granted. But I think once Also Brooks just
Speaker 6: increases her name ID and tells people that she is
Speaker 6: the Democrat running that's going to help her.
Speaker 3: Interesting.
Speaker 2: I don't know if a lot of people in Maryland
Speaker 2: are walking around wondering about Joe Manchin. But I have
Speaker 2: to ask you about the presidential campaign because I don't
Speaker 2: get that much of an opportunity to talk to Jessica Taylor.
Speaker 8: Here.
Speaker 2: There's a fascinating There's a fascinating piece by Nia Malika
Speaker 2: Henderson at Bloomberg Opinion who says Larry Hogan should get
Speaker 2: involved in the presidential race and endorse Kamala Harris. Now,
Speaker 2: remember this is a very strange scenario in Maryland, so
Speaker 2: things might not seem logical because we're talking about such
Speaker 2: a blue state. But Nia says that Hogan is running
Speaker 2: about a perfect race for Senate that a Republican could
Speaker 2: run in Maryland. He puts it over the top by
Speaker 2: endorsing a Democrat for president. Is that even possible in
Speaker 2: your view?
Speaker 6: I think that would certainly help him. But I think
Speaker 6: fundamentally if you contindue you know, what they're saying in
Speaker 6: the ads is that you know, he would still be
Speaker 6: a Republican in the Senate and would caucus with Republicans.
Speaker 6: And I think that's the difference that you know, if
Speaker 6: you were say to say, I'm going to be an
Speaker 6: independent in the Senate and decide who I'm going to caucus.
Speaker 6: But that might help him.
Speaker 7: You know.
Speaker 6: Again, a lot of his ads have been very critical
Speaker 6: of former President Trump. They've you know, criticized him for
Speaker 6: January sixth and different things. Like if you closed your
Speaker 6: eyes and like listen to some of these ads, you
Speaker 6: would think they were coming from a Democrat. So he
Speaker 6: certainly is much farther to the left than your traditional
Speaker 6: Republican would be. But what republican, what Democrats have to
Speaker 6: hit him on is just that he was recruited into
Speaker 6: the race by Mitch McConnell and has said that he
Speaker 6: would caucus as a Republican. So I think the only
Speaker 6: thing that could possibly change the trajectory as if he says, listen,
Speaker 6: I'd follow Joe Mangin's lead in the final months and
Speaker 6: be an independent, and I'd leave it up to you
Speaker 6: to who I'm going to caucus with.
Speaker 2: Really interesting and a great conversation. As always, Jessica, we
Speaker 2: missed you. I'll come back and talk to this soon.
Speaker 2: We've only got about eight weeks left to talk about this,
Speaker 2: although I don't think it's going to be quite done
Speaker 2: in eight weeks. She's the Senate and Governor's editor for
Speaker 2: the Cook Political Report. In Making News Today at the
Speaker 2: top of the tip sheets with this move on Montana
Speaker 2: leans are I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington, and we thank
Speaker 2: you for joining us here on Balance of Power.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 9: Joe and I indeed are broadcasting live on Bloomberg TV
Speaker 9: and Radio from Washington, where a lot of the conversation
Speaker 9: has actually focused on the town of Springfield, Ohio. Part
Speaker 9: of this as a result of what's been happening online
Speaker 9: and the propagating of misinformation around Haitian immigrants eating pets
Speaker 9: in Springfield, but of course it actually made its way
Speaker 9: onto the debate stage. Donald Trump himself talked about the
Speaker 9: eating of dogs when he was sharing the stage with
Speaker 9: Kamala Harris in Philadelphia. And we're seeing a real impact
Speaker 9: of that now as once again the Springfield City School
Speaker 9: District has had to close schools today, according to school officials,
Speaker 9: one middle school and evacuated two elementary schools because of
Speaker 9: threats that local police were informed of. And this is
Speaker 9: something that the President Joe is now addressing from the
Speaker 9: White House, saying there is no place in America for this.
Speaker 9: It has to stop.
Speaker 2: This is not something we showed up at work. Looking
Speaker 2: to talk about again. We did talk about it on
Speaker 2: Tuesday night when this came up in the debate. Having
Speaker 2: heard about this, jd Vance said it had said it
Speaker 2: earlier in the day. The fact that the President went
Speaker 2: there knowing that Laura Lumer was with him on the
Speaker 2: plane to fill Adela had some folks scratching their heads.
Speaker 2: But okay, we move on. It was debunked by ABC News.
Speaker 2: They were criticized for doing that in real time, but
Speaker 2: it has now become part of the stump speech. Kayleie,
Speaker 2: this wasn't just a one off during the debate with
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris. It came up again last night in Tucson, Arizona,
Speaker 2: expanding it to a whole new species. Here's Donald Trump.
Speaker 3: Recording of nine to one to one calls.
Speaker 10: Even show residents are reporting that the migrants are walking
Speaker 10: off with the town's geese.
Speaker 3: They take in the geese, you know where the.
Speaker 2: Geese are in the park in the lake, and even
Speaker 2: walking off with their pets.
Speaker 3: My dog's been taken my dog, he says.
Speaker 2: They're taking the geese in the park in the lake,
Speaker 2: not just the cats and the dogs. Let's round up
Speaker 2: our panel right now, Genie Schanzano, Senior Democracy Fellow with
Speaker 2: the Center for the Study of the Presidency in Congressloomberg
Speaker 2: Politics contributor of course. Iona University political science professor Morigillespie
Speaker 2: is here as well today Bluestax Strategies, Republican strategist and
Speaker 2: veteran of John Bayner's Speaker's office.
Speaker 3: Genie, I'm going to start with you on this.
Speaker 2: Because look, it's people laugh, it's wacky, it's funny for
Speaker 2: some people, but there are some real racial undertones here
Speaker 2: on there. What's the point that Donald Trump's trying to make?
Speaker 6: There?
Speaker 11: Absolutely are First of all, it's you know, hard for
Speaker 11: me to wrap my head around here, and Kayley and
Speaker 11: you talk about pets being eating by migrants. I still still,
Speaker 11: you know, what are we seventy two hours in? It's
Speaker 11: hard to wrap my head around, but here we are
Speaker 11: in American politics, and you know, absolutely there is enormous
Speaker 11: racial undertones to this. But you know, the reality is
Speaker 11: this is what Donald Trump has trafficked in for many,
Speaker 11: many years and quite frankly successfully. You know, I was
Speaker 11: at Trump Tower when he came down the escalator and
Speaker 11: announced in horrific langue which about immigrants in twenty fifteen.
Speaker 11: In the race for twenty sixteen, this is the same
Speaker 11: thing he garners attention. I remember we all said after that, boy,
Speaker 11: he doesn't have a shot in heck of the nomination,
Speaker 11: let alone winning, And there he went. So this has
Speaker 11: been a winning strategy for him. He is using it.
Speaker 11: President Biden is right, there is no place for it,
Speaker 11: and yet here we are. So it is up to
Speaker 11: the American public and voters to say there's no place
Speaker 11: for it. Because as long as he is successful in
Speaker 11: these races, he continues to do this.
Speaker 9: But more, if it was a winning strategy in the past,
Speaker 9: does that automatically make it a winning strategy now, especially
Speaker 9: when he was seen as having lost the debate by
Speaker 9: most Americans who watched it against Kamala Harris. Is this
Speaker 9: really what he needs to be pushing right now.
Speaker 8: No, And I think that what you're seeing is again
Speaker 8: he's only playing to the magabas. He's not playing to win.
Speaker 8: He's not playing to reach people who are in the
Speaker 8: middle and maybe still undecided. This is not going to
Speaker 8: sway them to vote for don Trump. He's coming across
Speaker 8: largely on Tuesday Night as unhinged and when you're based
Speaker 8: on the decision about who to put in the oval office,
Speaker 8: it's not just about that person, but who they're going
Speaker 8: to put around him. And so for many people who
Speaker 8: have said, you know, are you better off now than
Speaker 8: you were four years ago and things of that nature, Well,
Speaker 8: when you think about those first few years and during
Speaker 8: the Trump presidency, maybe you do feel like your life
Speaker 8: was better than it was pre COVID, you know, so
Speaker 8: maybe you do feel like your life was better than
Speaker 8: But I also caution people to remember who was around
Speaker 8: him at that time, and largely most of those people
Speaker 8: who were in his cabinet or in his orbit have
Speaker 8: neither you know, left, were fired because they told him no,
Speaker 8: and he then replaced them with yes men and are
Speaker 8: out there saying that he should not be anywhere near
Speaker 8: the White House. So I think, you know, to only
Speaker 8: play the one portion of the Republican Party, and especially
Speaker 8: in such an extreme manner, is not an effective strategy
Speaker 8: for someone who would actually have wanted to win the
Speaker 8: White House. It's not helpful to down valid races either.
Speaker 2: You think about these families and the impact, the real
Speaker 2: impact that it's having in Springfield is Kaylee mentioned Genie
Speaker 2: the spring Field City School District closed in middle school,
Speaker 2: Roosevelt Middle School, and evacuated another parent Woods and Snowhill
Speaker 2: Elementary School as well this morning after they got bomb
Speaker 2: threats via email. Cliff Park High School outside of that
Speaker 2: district was also evacuated. They're now working with the Dayton
Speaker 2: FBI office to find the source of this stuff. There
Speaker 2: is a very clear and real example here of what
Speaker 2: the rhetoric can lead to, right.
Speaker 11: There, absolutely is, And this is the danger of this.
Speaker 11: It takes one person to react to this kind of
Speaker 11: obviously clearly false statements and stories to spread that disinformation.
Speaker 11: And this is why leadership matters, because leaders like Donald
Speaker 11: Trump have to be responsible and to lead us in
Speaker 11: a more positive direction. He is not doing that by
Speaker 11: spreading this information. That is clear. But the reality for
Speaker 11: Donald Trump is he's seen it be successful in the past,
Speaker 11: he believes it will be and as long as he
Speaker 11: continues to believe that, he is not going to stop.
Speaker 11: And this is where to Mora's point, we need other
Speaker 11: leaders on the Republican side to stand up and say
Speaker 11: enough is enough. We've seen that from Liz Cheney, We've
Speaker 11: seen that from Dick Cheney, We've seen it from Mike Pence.
Speaker 11: We've got to see it from others, including former President
Speaker 11: George W. Bush, who took a hands off approach. They
Speaker 11: have to stand up and say we aren't going to
Speaker 11: countenance of this anymore. That's the only way. In addition
Speaker 11: to Donald Trump losing another election, and the Republicans may
Speaker 11: get tired of that if it happens.
Speaker 9: I would point out Janian Morra for our audience here
Speaker 9: on Bloomberg TV in radio, that Donald Trump right now
Speaker 9: is giving remarks to the press in Los Angeles, California.
Speaker 9: He's opened them by saying he's here in California with
Speaker 9: a simple message for the American people. We cannot allow
Speaker 9: Comrade Kamala Harris and the communist left to do to
Speaker 9: America what they did to California. As we consider the
Speaker 9: messaging we're getting from the former President Mora. He also
Speaker 9: has weighed in on the happenings here in Washington in
Speaker 9: recent days, suggesting that House Republicans, who of course are
Speaker 9: trying to avert a government shutdown eighteen days from now
Speaker 9: when funding expires, should indeed shut the government down if
Speaker 9: they don't get election security through along with it. The
Speaker 9: Safe Act of course, what we're referring to here making
Speaker 9: illegal something that already is illegal, non citizens voting. Do
Speaker 9: you believe this Donald Trump, who is speaking right now,
Speaker 9: actually wants to see the government shut down as he
Speaker 9: is trying to win election.
Speaker 8: Again, I think it proves to have a point that
Speaker 8: he doesn't actually want to win, because everyone in Washington
Speaker 8: and otherwise would know that a shutdown right before an
Speaker 8: election is political suicide. Quite frankly, you know, it's not
Speaker 8: something that anyone wants to do. They are down to
Speaker 8: a matter of weeks before that happens. And to take
Speaker 8: this stance and take this position of you know, get
Speaker 8: everything you want or don't do anything at all, is
Speaker 8: not how Congress works, I mean again, and it shows
Speaker 8: the downside of having somebody in politics, as you know,
Speaker 8: the leader of the Republican Party, who doesn't actually understand
Speaker 8: how it works. And I think that that's a detriment
Speaker 8: to what Mike Johnson is trying to accomplish and other
Speaker 8: leaders on Capitol Hill who are trying to make something
Speaker 8: work that they can get through to avoid this situation
Speaker 8: that both sides know would not farewell for them politically
Speaker 8: but in the polls. But also come election.
Speaker 2: Day, well, Laura, you work for a speaker long enough
Speaker 2: to have a better sense of how this stuff works
Speaker 2: than most people behind the scenes in the House. You
Speaker 2: don't really think the government shuts down to you.
Speaker 8: No, because they're not going to want to risk that potential.
Speaker 8: Because again, yes, most of the focus of the media
Speaker 8: and American people are focused on these two choices Kamala
Speaker 8: Harris or Donald Trump. But for Congress, what they're really
Speaker 8: focused on is, Okay, we need to get things done
Speaker 8: and then go home to our districts and tell them
Speaker 8: why they should re elect us. And it's really important
Speaker 8: because Mike Johnson wants to grow his majority, which is very,
Speaker 8: very very thin, and Senate Republicans feel as though they
Speaker 8: have a chance that Fillip being the Senate. So if
Speaker 8: they want to accomplish those goals, they actually have to
Speaker 8: show that they've gotten something done. And you know, this
Speaker 8: week they've been focusing on China, but no one's really
Speaker 8: talking about it. And that's because all the oxygen the
Speaker 8: room is constantly being taken by Donald Trump. Not to
Speaker 8: mention the fundraising dollars are also being taken by Donald Trump.
Speaker 8: So really, Republicans downbout have to separate themselves from the
Speaker 8: more president because he's hurting them in so many ways,
Speaker 8: from messaging, from fundraising, and just getting things accomplished to
Speaker 8: actually come out with a victory in November in just
Speaker 8: a matter of weeks.
Speaker 9: Yeah, I want to mention one Republican, the Senator from
Speaker 9: North Carolina, Tom Tillis, just out with a post on
Speaker 9: x about someone who's seemingly getting closer to Donald Trump,
Speaker 9: has been traveling with him, in fact, this week, Laura Lumer.
Speaker 9: He calls her a crazy conspiracy theorist who regularly utters
Speaker 9: disgusting garbage intended to divide Republicans. A DNC plant. Couldn't
Speaker 9: do a better job than she is doing to hurt
Speaker 9: President Trump's chances of winning re election enough, Senator Tillis says, Genie.
Speaker 9: Of course, even Marjorie Taylor Green has had some words
Speaker 9: for miss Lumer this week. Is that actually having this
Speaker 9: effect Donald Trump being surrounded with people like her?
Speaker 11: You know, I don't think it takes Donald Trump being
Speaker 11: surrounded by other people for him to act the way
Speaker 11: he's acting. He purposely chooses to have her in his orbit.
Speaker 11: Tillis's statement is one hundred percent right. But this gets
Speaker 11: back to what you were just talking about with Mora.
Speaker 11: Donald Trump is not concerned about the Republican Party or
Speaker 11: the nation, as Kamala Harris said, He's concerned about himself
Speaker 11: and his future. This is a man facing jail time
Speaker 11: right after this election. He needs to win. Why is
Speaker 11: he willing to have the government shut down in terms
Speaker 11: of pushing this need for a Save Act? Because he
Speaker 11: wants to set the groundwork that the election was unfair.
Speaker 11: If he does lose, then he is going to do
Speaker 11: the same thing he has done after every election, particularly
Speaker 11: twenty twenty, and say the election was stolen. So he's
Speaker 11: setting the groundwork. So I don't think it takes Laura
Speaker 11: Lumer to do that. But Tom Tillis is right, it
Speaker 11: is not for the campaign.
Speaker 8: All right.
Speaker 9: Jeanie Shanzeno and Mara Gillespie our political panel today, Thank
Speaker 9: you so much for joining us. We'll have more coming
Speaker 9: up on Balance of Power right here on Bloomberg TV
Speaker 9: and radio.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo, car Play
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Speaker 9: And as we consider who these policies are really aimed
Speaker 9: at attracting this specifically no tax on overtime that Donald
Speaker 9: Trump is now talking about trying to get to the
Speaker 9: blue collar that's vote, and we know that it's probably
Speaker 9: the blue collar vote in a very small number of
Speaker 9: states specifically that this is trying to target. As the
Speaker 9: candidates compete in the battlegrounds extensively.
Speaker 3: They're in those states right now. I think Spencil Vanya,
Speaker 3: it's Michigan.
Speaker 2: It's Wisconsin. That's exactly where they've been spending the bulk
Speaker 2: of their time. As we mentioned earlier, he's in Nevada,
Speaker 2: latter Las Vegas, where you've got organized labor, the Culinary
Speaker 2: Workers Union. They're going to like this storylines too, I suspect.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 9: Of course Georgia is still in play as well. And
Speaker 9: that's where we go next. As we turn to Andre Gillespie,
Speaker 9: who is a professor of political science at Emory University,
Speaker 9: Welcome back to Balance of Power. Andre, it's great to
Speaker 9: have you. If we could just take a look at
Speaker 9: Donald Trump's proposal in isolation for a moment. This notion
Speaker 9: of not taxing overtime hours for blue collar workers, is
Speaker 9: that a policy that could actually garner him more support?
Speaker 9: Does that work well?
Speaker 7: I mean, I think he's trying to appeal to lowering
Speaker 7: taxes of working people. I think in all of the
Speaker 7: proposals that have been made about reducing taxes, eliminating taxes
Speaker 7: on tips, eliminating taxes on social security, I think the
Speaker 7: bigger question is is this legislatively dead on arrival? Like
Speaker 7: these our decisions that presidents cannot make unilaterally, these are
Speaker 7: decisions that are going to have to go through in
Speaker 7: a tax bill. And I think it would be a
Speaker 7: question of could this get through a divided Congress if
Speaker 7: neither party has control of the Congress, and if it
Speaker 7: turns out that we have divided government where the executive
Speaker 7: and the legislative branches are controlled by different parties, does
Speaker 7: this have any chance of passage? And so I think
Speaker 7: the deficit discussion that you've been having is an important
Speaker 7: consideration in some that folks would likely bring up. And
Speaker 7: there still are members of the Republican Party in particular
Speaker 7: who are concerned about deficits, and they may raise some
Speaker 7: objections to this part of the proposal, especially now that
Speaker 7: it's become even more expansive.
Speaker 2: It's interesting you make that point under it because Donald
Speaker 2: Trump has gone out of his.
Speaker 3: Way to make part of his pitch that he doesn't.
Speaker 2: Need Congress to do all of the things that he's proposing.
Speaker 2: You're right, tax policy is going to be a knockdown,
Speaker 2: drag out fight in Congress here, and it'll be interesting
Speaker 2: to see how that plays depending on who wins the
Speaker 2: White House. But when you're talking about tariffs, when you're
Speaker 2: talking about the greatest mass deportation in American history, as
Speaker 2: he calls it, or world's history, whatever that may be,
Speaker 2: he does not need Congress for that, does he.
Speaker 7: So there are some things that he might be able
Speaker 7: to take care of through executive order, but even there
Speaker 7: a separation of powers is likely to come into play,
Speaker 7: because there is very little doubt that if he were
Speaker 7: to try to enact some of these things due to
Speaker 7: laterally that there would not be some type of judicial
Speaker 7: intervention where folks would try to go to the courts
Speaker 7: to try to enjoin him in some way, shape or form.
Speaker 7: We can look as evidence of that the Muslim band
Speaker 7: that he instituted shortly after he took office in twenty seventeen,
Speaker 7: there were lawsuits that they were enjoined and did get
Speaker 7: all the way to the Supreme Court, And the policy
Speaker 7: that ended up going into effect actually looked a little
Speaker 7: bit different than the one that President Trump issued when
Speaker 7: he first issued that executive order right after he was
Speaker 7: inaugurated as president.
Speaker 9: Well, we may or may not hear more on this
Speaker 9: policy and others from Donald Trump on a debate stage
Speaker 9: in the future, or Kamala Harris for that matter. If
Speaker 9: Donald Trump is to believed right now on, be believed
Speaker 9: right now on, there will not be another debate that
Speaker 9: happens between these two. After Kamala Harris widely was perceived
Speaker 9: to have won the one that took place this week,
Speaker 9: how soon should we expect that to be born out
Speaker 9: in poles if at all?
Speaker 7: Well, there have been some poles that have come out,
Speaker 7: you know, in the last day or so, and so
Speaker 7: what they're suggesting is that this race is still a
Speaker 7: statistical dead heat. So it doesn't look like Kamala Harris
Speaker 7: has had a significant enough bump that you could actually
Speaker 7: say that this was a boon for her. And so
Speaker 7: I think the larger question, as I know some of
Speaker 7: your earlier guests have said, is what do the poles
Speaker 7: look like in a couple of weeks, And then I
Speaker 7: think that there would be a question of how much
Speaker 7: fallout does Donald Trump have to take from his decision
Speaker 7: to not engage in the debate. Could he get baited
Speaker 7: by Democrats calling him a coward or a chicken, or
Speaker 7: does he see some type of shift in the poles
Speaker 7: that would suggest that he absolutely needs to debate. I think,
Speaker 7: you know, one of the things that is really interesting
Speaker 7: is that Donald Trump has usually been pretty effective in
Speaker 7: being a to spin things in his favor, and so
Speaker 7: the excuse is that he's made for not wanting to
Speaker 7: debate by declaring himself the winner and saying that only
Speaker 7: losers want rematches, you know, has struck me is actually
Speaker 7: pretty conportionist in their point of view. I know that
Speaker 7: his supporters, you know, will go along with that point
Speaker 7: of view and start echoing it. But if it looks
Speaker 7: like it's going to start to hurt him, we might
Speaker 7: hear him talk about how he has changed his mind
Speaker 7: and then try to tell us that this is what
Speaker 7: he thought all the time. So, you know, I think
Speaker 7: that's a largely a function of Donald Trump really being
Speaker 7: allowed to have free rein at the spin. But if
Speaker 7: it starts to not work, then we might see him pivot,
Speaker 7: as we've seen him pivot on other issues.
Speaker 2: Interesting andre well, we consider what's happening in Congress right now.
Speaker 2: The big talk is about whether we'll have a government
Speaker 2: shut down later this month. No one seems to think
Speaker 2: that's going to happen. But there's an important event that's
Speaker 2: underway this week in Washington, a big annual event for
Speaker 2: the Congressional Black Caucus. They're holding their legislative convention right now,
Speaker 2: and we've been having conversations with some of their members
Speaker 2: over the past couple of days, including Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett,
Speaker 2: the Democrat from Texas, joined me last evening on the
Speaker 2: late edition of Balance of Power to talk about the
Speaker 2: CBC's priorities moving forward in this Congress and what might
Speaker 2: emerge next year. She reached for the issue of voting
Speaker 2: rights of voting reform.
Speaker 3: Here's what she said for.
Speaker 12: Me on day one is voting rights. That is my
Speaker 12: priority all around, because if we can stop some of
Speaker 12: the jerrymandering, because we have lost the Voting Rights Act
Speaker 12: in so many ways, we only have you know Section two,
Speaker 12: and it's hanging by a thread right now. And when
Speaker 12: we're talking about making sure that in states like Texas
Speaker 12: we have representation that is actually reflective of the will
Speaker 12: of the people, we can solve so many problems.
Speaker 2: On for just the John Lewis Voting Rights Act see
Speaker 2: the light of day again. If Kamala Harris gets elected.
Speaker 7: Well, it really will depend on what the bounce power
Speaker 7: is in Congress. If Republicans control any chamber, it's still
Speaker 7: not going to go anywhere. And it's still also important
Speaker 7: to keep in mind that in the Senate you would
Speaker 7: have to sort of break sort of normal rules in
Speaker 7: order to allow majority votes. So as I would understand it,
Speaker 7: I wouldn't expect that that vote would be able to
Speaker 7: survive a cloture vote. So I think that, you know,
Speaker 7: it's pretty grim. We're not looking at like, even if
Speaker 7: Democrats are able to maintain control of the Senate, we're
Speaker 7: not looking at them coming anywhere near a sixty vote majority.
Speaker 7: And so even if they had the majority of the
Speaker 7: House of Representatives, it would still be highly unlikely that
Speaker 7: they would be able to get it through the Senate,
Speaker 7: as was the case in twenty twenty one when they
Speaker 7: were first pushing this through.
Speaker 9: Andre we just have a minute left, but before we
Speaker 9: let you go, as we consider the majority of the
Speaker 9: House of Representatives, if the government shuts down at the
Speaker 9: end of this month, what is that actually going to
Speaker 9: do to Republicans electoral ots.
Speaker 7: So I'm assuming that Republicans will be concerned about that,
Speaker 7: and I think it will be a big question about
Speaker 7: how Democrats actually choose to use that for their event.
Speaker 7: You know, if this were happening a year ago, there
Speaker 7: would be time for the party that is blamed for
Speaker 7: the shutdown to recover from that. But happening so close
Speaker 7: to a national election, I found it hard to believe
Speaker 7: that Democrats wouldn't try to make hay of the situation
Speaker 7: and try to blame government dysfunction on Republican control and
Speaker 7: try to make the case in swing districts and in
Speaker 7: districts where Republicans are vulnerable that the Republican Party should
Speaker 7: not be in charge of a chamber at this point
Speaker 7: because they are being overrun by extremists who don't want
Speaker 7: to get anything done. And so I think that those
Speaker 7: are the objects that is trying to navigate and part
Speaker 7: of the reason why he's been trying to, you know,
Speaker 7: get this done as quickly as beneficially as possible.
Speaker 3: Well, we got eighteen days to figure it out.
Speaker 2: I'm great to see Andre Gillespie Emory University and a
Speaker 2: smart conversation as always here on Balance of Power.
Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew with Kaylee Lines. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Ken
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then
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Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: We spend so much time talking about the horse race,
Speaker 2: the policy proposals, of course, the debate this week, some
Speaker 2: of the wild rhetoric that we heard on the stump
Speaker 2: in the last forty eight hours. We don't always think
Speaker 2: about the job that they're working for, and the latest
Speaker 2: from David Rubinstein, the highest calling. We've both been curled
Speaker 2: up with this book for a minute conversations on the
Speaker 2: American presidency. You start reading about all of the presidents,
Speaker 2: including by the way, Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and
Speaker 2: I'm left with the same question, why would anyone ever
Speaker 2: want this job?
Speaker 9: Yeah, very difficult one, of course, perhaps the most difficult
Speaker 9: to attain, at least in American politics, in the way
Speaker 9: in which this Republic operates, and of course one that
Speaker 9: may be held differently, viewed differently by the people who
Speaker 9: have inhabited the office as you look over the history
Speaker 9: of the now forty six presidents, and twenty of them
Speaker 9: are featured in this new book. And we're very lucky
Speaker 9: to have David Rubinstein, the author here with us. He,
Speaker 9: of course, is co founder and co chair of the
Speaker 9: Carlisle Group, also a host on Bloomberg Television in addition
Speaker 9: to being an author of this book. Always a busy man.
Speaker 9: Thank you for making some time for us here in
Speaker 9: studio in Washington. It's worth pointing out while this is
Speaker 9: in part titled Conversations on the American Presidency, it's also
Speaker 9: conversations with a number of former and even the current president.
Speaker 9: You spoke with both Donald Trump and Joe Biden when
Speaker 9: writing this book. We talk a lot about the contrast
Speaker 9: between these two men. Did you pick up on how
Speaker 9: they may differently view the office of the presidency? Here
Speaker 9: was in more overlap than you expected.
Speaker 10: They do have different views on it and how to
Speaker 10: do it. I interviewed both of them on spar interviews,
Speaker 10: with Joe Biden in the Oval Office for an hour alone,
Speaker 10: and I've known him for a long time, and I
Speaker 10: think he felt comfortable with me, and I've had a
Speaker 10: lot of interactions with him over the years. I've interviewed
Speaker 10: Donald Trump before. In this particular case, he was getting
Speaker 10: ready for a trial, and so it wasn't exactly in
Speaker 10: the Oval Office that I was doing it, but I
Speaker 10: had had dinner with him not too long earlier and
Speaker 10: had gotten ready for the interview. And they both have
Speaker 10: different perspectives on the job. And I might call it
Speaker 10: the highest calling, because this is clearly the most important
Speaker 10: job in the world. Since Woodrow Wilson went to Paris
Speaker 10: to negotiate the Treaty of Versailles, it's been clear that
Speaker 10: the President United States is the most important person in
Speaker 10: the world, with very rare exceptions. And so you have
Speaker 10: to say to yourself, why do people want that much responsibility?
Speaker 10: You asked in the beginning, and think about it. John
Speaker 10: Kennedy was assassinated, Linda Johnson driven out of office, Richard
Speaker 10: Nixon in fact, had to force to resign. Gerald Ford
Speaker 10: lost reelection, Jimmy Carter lost reelection. Ronald Reagan was almost assassin.
Speaker 10: George Herbert Walker Bush not reelective. So you have to say,
Speaker 10: why do people want to put themselves through this and
Speaker 10: to be president? You have now spend two years campaigning
Speaker 10: bad food, no exercise, no family contact, and it's not
Speaker 10: a wonderful thing to do. But the reason is that
Speaker 10: people who are ambitious say, I want to do something
Speaker 10: to help my country. I want to show that I've
Speaker 10: done something useful for society, and it's the ultimate job
Speaker 10: in the world for sure.
Speaker 2: Then after that big fight, you get there and you
Speaker 2: realize the golden bars surround you. You talk to both
Speaker 2: Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and I'm compelled, I believe.
Speaker 2: On two pages facing each other, Donald Trump talked about
Speaker 2: the loneliness you Austin, What does it like to be
Speaker 2: in the White House? The loneliness? You asked Joe Biden,
Speaker 2: is this as fun a job as you thought it
Speaker 2: was going to be? He said, fun is not the
Speaker 2: word that I would use. Maybe they have something in
Speaker 2: common there.
Speaker 10: Well, every president thinks it's lonely because in the end,
Speaker 10: every major decision that the federal government has to make
Speaker 10: and it's difficult, it gets the president because it was
Speaker 10: easy to make a decision about something they would have
Speaker 10: gotten incided by somebody else. Yeah, so they get and
Speaker 10: it's said to be a very lonely job. And what
Speaker 10: Donald Trump was referring to is that in several holidays
Speaker 10: the government was more or less shut down. He had
Speaker 10: to stay there to wait for the government to open
Speaker 10: up and maybe sign a bill. So he didn't go
Speaker 10: down to mar A Lago for I think it was
Speaker 10: three of the four years he was in the White
Speaker 10: House alone during the holidays. And you know, Joe Biden
Speaker 10: has spent a fair amount of time there in long
Speaker 10: hours as well. One of the reasons presidents like Camp
Speaker 10: David is you can go there, you are with your
Speaker 10: family typically, but you don't have all the Secret Service
Speaker 10: watching you every second, you know, And it's not quite
Speaker 10: the federal prison that the White House is often called
Speaker 10: by people. Ronald Reagan said it was the I guess,
Speaker 10: the high water mark of the federal penitentiary system. Because
Speaker 10: when you're in the White House, everybody watches everything you do.
Speaker 10: You can't walk around outside. It's a very complicated and
Speaker 10: lonely job. But again, many people spend time trying to
Speaker 10: get there, and a lot of people want that job.
Speaker 9: Well, and Joe Biden wanted to keep the job up
Speaker 9: until just recently. You spoke with him in April of
Speaker 9: this year, so he still was attempting to seek a
Speaker 9: second term at that time. Do you think the tenor
Speaker 9: your conversation would have been different had he already made
Speaker 9: the decision to not seek reelection and endorse Kamala Harrison?
Speaker 13: Probably sure.
Speaker 10: He thought he was going to be the nominee of
Speaker 10: the party, and he wanted to be the nominee of
Speaker 10: the party, and obviously events unfolded. When history of this
Speaker 10: election is written, the two most consequential decisions I think
Speaker 10: will be Donald Trump's decision to do an early debate,
Speaker 10: because by doing an early debate, he in effect knocked
Speaker 10: Biden out and therefore he now has an opponent that
Speaker 10: might be tougher. And Joe Biden's decision to ask for
Speaker 10: an early debate, because had he not had an early
Speaker 10: debate and the debate was in September October would have
Speaker 10: been too late to have him replaced, probably so both
Speaker 10: of them will probably look back, depending who wins, and say,
Speaker 10: maybe I shouldn't have had an early debate.
Speaker 2: You dedicated this book in part to Ted Sorenson, which
Speaker 2: is fascinating to me. Of course the force behind as
Speaker 2: we've learned, Profiles and Courage, but also JFK's inaugural address
Speaker 2: that we choose to go to the moon speech. Before
Speaker 2: you joined us, Kayley and I were talking about in
Speaker 2: seeding animals in Springfield, Ohio. What would Ted Sorenson make
Speaker 2: of the rhetoric on this campaign.
Speaker 10: Ted Sorenson, for those who don't know, was a very
Speaker 10: young aide who worked for President Kennedy before that for
Speaker 10: Senator Kennedy, and he was the person who was probably
Speaker 10: very involved in writing let's say, Profiles and Courage. Ye
Speaker 10: President Kennedy or then Senator Kennedy was ill, probably difficult
Speaker 10: to write too much of it himself. And then the
Speaker 10: inaugural dress, which I think was the greatest inaugur dress
Speaker 10: of my lifetime, was written in large part by Ted Sorenson,
Speaker 10: and I admired him.
Speaker 13: I didn't think I could be a candidate.
Speaker 10: I wasn't rich enough, smart enough, handsome enough, charming enough
Speaker 10: to be a candidate, but I thought I could be
Speaker 10: an advisor, and so he was the person I went
Speaker 10: to work for when I practiced when I began practicing
Speaker 10: law in New York. And I greatly admire him. I
Speaker 10: was just with his widow the other night when I
Speaker 10: was doing a talk about this book in New York.
Speaker 10: And you know, Ted was an inspiration to me because
Speaker 10: he knew how to write in a way that very
Speaker 10: few people have been able to do since then. He
Speaker 10: just had a way with words. And if you think
Speaker 10: of the inaugural address to Kennedy, ask not what your
Speaker 10: country can do for you, but what you can do
Speaker 10: for your country. Those are words that you know are
Speaker 10: going to ring with us for the rest of our lives.
Speaker 2: Would he see this as a world in which political
Speaker 2: rhetoric has regressed? Though these are poetic, iconic speeches you're
Speaker 2: talking about, turned to twenty twenty four.
Speaker 10: We don't value presidential rhetoric in quite the way that
Speaker 10: we probably used to. You know, we used to talk
Speaker 10: about great presidential speeches. Lincoln's second inaugural dress, FDR's inaugural address,
Speaker 10: the first one, or Kennedy's inaugur dress, today we often
Speaker 10: don't focus on the rhetoric as much or the speeches
Speaker 10: because the craftsmanship is not quite as fine tune. But
Speaker 10: there's not as much emphasis on it being fine tuned.
Speaker 10: People just wanted to know what is the president going
Speaker 10: to do, what's he going to do for me, and
Speaker 10: that kind of thing. And it's a different world. Remember
Speaker 10: when when John Kenny gave his speech inaugural address. In
Speaker 10: those days, there was no internet, there was no social media.
Speaker 10: The evening news shows for fifteen minutes. There were three networks,
Speaker 10: each one did fifteen minutes a night, and then the
Speaker 10: only papers that people cared about were the Washington Post
Speaker 10: in the York. There was no other way to worry
Speaker 10: about conveying ideas, and so it was a different world today.
Speaker 10: If you're President of the United States, you're working in
Speaker 10: the White House every minute, you have to focus on
Speaker 10: social media, who's saying what, and you have to be
Speaker 10: attuned to what's going all around the world, and you
Speaker 10: never really are free from social media or TV networks
Speaker 10: never well.
Speaker 9: And that's one of the ways in which the office
Speaker 9: perhaps has changed, is you look from George Washington to
Speaker 9: present day. One thing, though, has remained the same. Every
Speaker 9: single person you talk about in this book is a
Speaker 9: man that potentially could change. If Kamala Harris wins in November,
Speaker 9: does that change the nature of the office once what
Speaker 9: Hillary Clinton called that highest glass ceiling has actually been shattered.
Speaker 10: Of course, you think about it. We've had forty six
Speaker 10: men serve in this position, no women. Interestingly, when the
Speaker 10: country was set up, women weren't even allowed to vote
Speaker 10: or in any way participate in government. We obviously changed
Speaker 10: that with the nine Amendment. It is amazing that you
Speaker 10: have more than half the population's female, but we still
Speaker 10: have an and had a female president. We may well
Speaker 10: this time, who knows. I think Hillary Clinton came as
Speaker 10: close as any woman has ever come, because had she
Speaker 10: won one or two more states, she would have been
Speaker 10: president of United States and we would have broken that
Speaker 10: glass ceiling.
Speaker 3: I'd love to hear your view on this race. Now.
Speaker 2: Everybody wants to know what's on your mind, and I'm
Speaker 2: sure there are some things you can tell us and
Speaker 2: maybe you don't want to share, but you understand the
Speaker 2: conversation on Wall Street.
Speaker 3: What is the great fear right.
Speaker 2: Now when it comes to Kamala Harris is that the
Speaker 2: idea of taxing capital gains on unrealized gains. Wall Street
Speaker 2: seems to be more comfortable with the idea of Trump,
Speaker 2: despite pretty well performing stock market under the Biden administration.
Speaker 10: Well, I'll tell you what I think people think, but
Speaker 10: I don't want to say these are my views necessarily,
Speaker 10: But people on Wall Street, and remember Wall Street generally
Speaker 10: is focused on the stock market and making money and
Speaker 10: other things, not kind of values that a president might have.
Speaker 10: But they're worried that taxes will go up on businesses
Speaker 10: and wealthy businesses. They're worried that and wealthy individuals. They're
Speaker 10: worried that the regulatory environment will be very harsh. The
Speaker 10: anti trust environment has not been favorable for a lot
Speaker 10: of M and A A transactions, and they're worried that
Speaker 10: it might continue that way. They're worried that the people
Speaker 10: that she might put into regulatory positions might be tougher
Speaker 10: own business than even the ones that Joe Biden put in.
Speaker 13: So that's what they're worried about.
Speaker 10: I'm not sure I share all those worries, but I
Speaker 10: think many people on Wall Street saying, look, we have
Speaker 10: to hedge our bets, and Wall Street is all about
Speaker 10: hedging right. So they are focused very much on the
Speaker 10: Senate because the Senate can very well go Republican. You
Speaker 10: only need to switch one or two seats if we
Speaker 10: go Republican. And so if the Senate were to go
Speaker 10: Republican and with the filler buster rules, I think many
Speaker 10: people in Wall Street who don't like Kamala Harris would say, well,
Speaker 10: we can block almost anything through the Senate.
Speaker 9: Well, and that's what we have to keep reminding ourselves
Speaker 9: is we get these various policy proposals from these candidates,
Speaker 9: there is only so much they can do on their
Speaker 9: own without Congress backing them. So it's important to remind
Speaker 9: ourselves of rules that have to be followed as far
Speaker 9: as how legislating goes. I want to ask you about
Speaker 9: a rule completely unrelated to politics though, but related to
Speaker 9: of course your interest in sports. Is an owner of
Speaker 9: teams like the Orioles. There's a new rule in the
Speaker 9: NFL that allows private equity. In Bloomberg's reporting today, the
Speaker 9: chargers that Dolphins are now getting interest. Is this something
Speaker 9: you're looking at, David Well.
Speaker 10: I would say that it was public publicly disclosed that
Speaker 10: the firm that I'm the co chairman of Carlisle is
Speaker 10: part of a consortion that has been authorized by the
Speaker 10: NFL to buy stakes that go up to ten percent.
Speaker 10: And so all I can say is what's been said
Speaker 10: already in the press. But I do think that sports
Speaker 10: have been a very attractive investment for the last couple
Speaker 10: of years. Very few people have made major sports investments
Speaker 10: that have lost money. Now, some people say it's a bubble,
Speaker 10: it can't keep going on this way. The other hand,
Speaker 10: nobody seems to be running away from the bubble. And
Speaker 10: one of the reasons is that sports is now global
Speaker 10: and because betting has occurred, and betting is now very popular.
Speaker 10: Betting has fueled, I think, interest in sports, and so
Speaker 10: people are much more interested in sports than when I
Speaker 10: was a child because there's betting involved.
Speaker 13: Is in addition to rooting for your home team.
Speaker 10: So, as you know, I bought the Bottom Oriols or
Speaker 10: control of the Bottom Oriols with partners recently, and I'm
Speaker 10: now learning the ins and outs of what it means
Speaker 10: to be a sports owner. And you know, every time
Speaker 10: we win, I'm feeling deliriously happy that I'm you know,
Speaker 10: and when we lose, I feel like the dagger in
Speaker 10: my heart, and so you know, I wish I you know,
Speaker 10: I was a junior. I was a Little League All
Speaker 10: Star when I was eight years old. I feel like
Speaker 10: going into the players and say, look, let me tell
Speaker 10: you what I learned when I was eight years old
Speaker 10: about how to hit or how to pitch. But they
Speaker 10: don't seem that interested.
Speaker 2: We only have a minute left. I'm a huge fan.
Speaker 2: I know you are too, Kailey of peer to peer.
Speaker 2: I know what my favorite episodes are. What's been your
Speaker 2: favorite interview in this experiment?
Speaker 10: When I did Oprah, it was pretty interesting because she
Speaker 10: said to be a great interviewer. She says, I'm not
Speaker 10: a great interviewer, I'm a great listener. And she's right
Speaker 10: because you have to learn to what person is saying
Speaker 10: and then pivot. And that was really interesting. I did
Speaker 10: George Bush and Bill Clinton together one time and that was,
Speaker 10: I think, really good. And Warren Buffett was great when
Speaker 10: I did him. So I like all my interviews. It's
Speaker 10: like I luck all my children, right, So I don't
Speaker 10: think anyone is more of a favorite. But what I
Speaker 10: like the best is when I know the person reasonably
Speaker 10: well yeah, and when I have you try to use
Speaker 10: my sense of humor, they along with it. You know,
Speaker 10: when somebody it doesn't pick up that I'm asking a joke,
Speaker 10: it's not as much fun. So like when I asked
Speaker 10: one time Bill Gates, do you think of he had
Speaker 10: a college degree, you might be more successful in life?
Speaker 13: He didn't get that it was a joke and he
Speaker 13: gave a serious answer. So you know, I like people
Speaker 13: that can pick up on the joke.
Speaker 3: Sometimes that's great. The humor goes a long way around here.
Speaker 2: I have to say, by the way, the McDonald's CEO,
Speaker 2: why does the coke taste better?
Speaker 1: At that?
Speaker 2: I learned something whenever I watch Peer to here. David
Speaker 2: Rubinstein a great treat to have you at the table.
Speaker 2: Congrats on the book. It's called the highest calling Conversations
Speaker 2: on the American Presidency. Thanks for listening to the Balance
Speaker 2: of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already,
Speaker 2: at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and
Speaker 2: you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC
Speaker 2: at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.