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Speaker 1: Welcome. It is Verdic with Center, Ted Cruz, Ben Ferguson

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Speaker 1: with you. Center. It's nice to be with you.

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Speaker 2: If you're watching this on video, I'm in nash Vegas

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Speaker 2: right now, not Las Vegas, Nashville. You're in Washington, DC,

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Speaker 2: and we've got a lot to talk about. It deals

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Speaker 2: with the Supreme Court.

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Speaker 3: Well, that's right.

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Speaker 4: We are expecting any day now the Supreme Court decision

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Speaker 4: on President Trump's tariffs, his imposition of tariffs. They've been

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Speaker 4: a major element of his foreign policy, a major element

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Speaker 4: of his economic policy. We're going to do a deep

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Speaker 4: dive breakdown of the Supreme Court case, what is likely

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Speaker 4: to happen, what we know about, what was argued, and

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Speaker 4: what the outcome is likely to be.

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Speaker 3: We're going to give you that as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely.

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Speaker 2: U F F G R E E n S dot

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Speaker 2: com promo code verdict. All right, So, Senator, tariffs have

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Speaker 2: been something that the President, like many other presidents, have used.

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Speaker 2: The President used him in a very big way when

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Speaker 2: he got re elected, and he made it clear when

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Speaker 2: he was campaigning he was going to use tariffs for leverage.

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Speaker 2: He was going to get better deals he thought America

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Speaker 2: was being taken advantage of. And he has been very

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Speaker 2: successful in many of these tariffs. But now tariffs have

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Speaker 2: made its way to the Supreme Court. Explain, first of all,

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Speaker 2: just to remind you how did we get to where

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Speaker 2: we are now, who was challenging it, and what are

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Speaker 2: they actually looking at ruling on.

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Speaker 4: Well, the case is a case called Trump versus Vos Selections.

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Speaker 4: It was argued on November fifth of twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 4: and we're expecting a decision relatively soon. It could be

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Speaker 4: this week, it could be in the next month, but

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Speaker 4: it's expected to be soon.

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Speaker 3: And it is a challenge.

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Speaker 4: From a number of small businesses who are challenging the

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Speaker 4: imposition of tariffs that Trump is put in place. This is,

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Speaker 4: I believe going to be a close case. I'm going

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Speaker 4: to break down the arguments. I'm going to give you

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Speaker 4: the legal issues that are at issue, and then I'm

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Speaker 4: going to make a prediction. I'm going to predict what

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Speaker 4: the Supreme Court is going to do. But first of all,

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Speaker 4: let's talk about where we are. So today, one hundred

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Speaker 4: and thirty three billion dollars have been collected during the

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Speaker 4: Trump administrations. This is through February of twenty twenty six,

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Speaker 4: and the tariffs have been imposed using a statute called AEPA,

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Speaker 4: which is the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

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Speaker 3: Now what does AIPA say.

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Speaker 4: AIPA says that if the President declares a national emergency

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Speaker 4: with respect to a foreign threat, the President may quote

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Speaker 4: regulate importation or exportation of any property in which a

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Speaker 4: foreign country or a national thereof has any interest by

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Speaker 4: any person. Central to this case is what that phrase

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Speaker 4: regulate importation means. So the president has declared an emergency,

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Speaker 4: there's notice bee it about that, and IIPA says, once

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Speaker 4: he does so.

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Speaker 2: And by the way, that's his right. I want to

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Speaker 2: be clear about that, So be understand. That's what liberals

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Speaker 2: have said. No, no, you don't have a right to The

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Speaker 2: president has a right to do that.

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Speaker 3: Correct, So it's not an inherent constitutional right.

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Speaker 4: It's not just like any president can stand up and

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Speaker 4: say there's an emergency. AIPA, which is a statute Congress's

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Speaker 4: passed has given the president the authority declared emergency, and

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Speaker 4: and then it is given to him the power once

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Speaker 4: he declares an emergency to regulate importation of any property

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Speaker 4: from a foreign country. That is the entire basis of

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Speaker 4: the Trump tariffs that have been imposed. And the question

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Speaker 4: is does the power to regulate imports include the power

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Speaker 4: to impost tariffs. Now, on the other side, the constitutional

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Speaker 4: provision says Article one, Section eight, Article one.

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Speaker 3: So wake up.

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Speaker 4: The constitution is structured. Article one lays out the powers

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Speaker 4: of Congress. Article two lays out the powers of the

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Speaker 4: President and the executive and Article three lays out and

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Speaker 4: creates the judiciary. Article one, section eight enumerates the powers

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Speaker 4: of Congress, and in particular, it says, as relevant here,

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Speaker 4: the Congress shall have the power to lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts,

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Speaker 4: and excise And it also says later on in Article one,

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Speaker 4: Section eight that Congress shall have the power quote to

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Speaker 4: regulate commerce with foreign nations, and so tariffs are at

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Speaker 4: the intersection of laying, collecting taxes, duties in posts and exercises,

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Speaker 4: in other words, taxing and regulating commerce with foreign nations. Historically,

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Speaker 4: tariffs have been a traditional tool for regulating imports and

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Speaker 4: international trade. On the other hand, tariffs are literally taxes

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Speaker 4: their duties. It's the oldest and most classic form of taxation.

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Speaker 4: And so the dispute is whether Congress, when it used

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Speaker 4: the language in a EPA, which is a statute to

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Speaker 4: giving the President the power to regulate imports, whether it

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Speaker 4: clearly and constitutionally delegated tariff authority to the executive and

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Speaker 4: that raises yet another issue. One of the arguments the

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Speaker 4: plaintiffs are raising here is something called the non delegation principle.

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Speaker 4: The non delegation principle says it limits how much Congress

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Speaker 4: can transfer its own lawmaking authority to the executive branch.

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Speaker 4: Congress is a general matter, it can delegate the authority

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Speaker 4: to implement and administer the law, but Congress has to

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Speaker 4: make the key policy choices, and so that is a

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Speaker 4: major argument.

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Speaker 3: The plaintiffs are using.

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Speaker 4: A second major argument the plantiffs are using is something

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Speaker 4: called the major questions doctrine, and the major questions doctrine

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Speaker 4: says it focuses on statutory clarity, and it says, when

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Speaker 4: the executive branch claims authority to take an action of

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Speaker 4: vast economic or political significance, courts require a clear and

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Speaker 4: specific authorization from Congress. And so one of the challenges

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Speaker 4: the plaintiffs are making here is this does not meet

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Speaker 4: the major your questions doctrine. Those are the two central

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Speaker 4: issues in this case.

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Speaker 2: When there's when people hear this and some of this

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Speaker 2: seems like this is Donald Trump being harassed by the

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Speaker 2: left and by Democrats, He's not getting to do his job.

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Speaker 2: Is that an argument that is that for many Americans

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Speaker 2: is legitimate or is this a grand argument that hey,

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Speaker 2: we should have this out at the Supreme Court, Or

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Speaker 2: is he just being harassed because he's Donald Trump and

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Speaker 2: he want an election Democrats don't like that he's in

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Speaker 2: charge because the American people chose him.

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Speaker 4: Listen, there's no doubt that every decision President Trump is making,

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Speaker 4: every policy is putting in place, results in a lawsuit.

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Speaker 4: And the Democrats Democrats, state attorneys general, left wing interest

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Speaker 4: groups are suing every.

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Speaker 3: Step, and much of that is harassment.

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Speaker 4: That being said, this legal issue is real, and I'm

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Speaker 4: going to make a prediction. My prediction right now is

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Speaker 4: the US Supreme Court is going to uphold President Trump's

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Speaker 4: imposition of terror. I'm going to further predict really that

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Speaker 4: the Supreme Court is going to uphold it by a

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Speaker 4: vote of five to four. That it is going to

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Speaker 4: be close, and I'm going to break it down in

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Speaker 4: a moment. But what I will say if this case

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Speaker 4: had been decided a year ago, if it had been

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Speaker 4: decided at the outset of the president's term, I think

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Speaker 4: the Court would have ruled that Trump cannot impose these

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Speaker 4: tariffs if it were addressing the legal issue in the abstract.

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Speaker 4: Here's why I believe the Court is going to allow

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Speaker 4: the tariffs to stay in place. And it's a basic

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Speaker 4: principle of reliance. We've had one hundred and thirty three

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Speaker 4: billion dollars in tariffs imposed already and collected. It has

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Speaker 4: been central to President Trump's foreign policy, and the Court

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Speaker 4: institutionally is very reluctant to do something that dramatically upsets

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Speaker 4: the status quo. So a year ago, I think the

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Speaker 4: court probably would have ruled differently, But I think today

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Speaker 4: you're going to get five justices to say we're too

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Speaker 4: far down the road. Too much has been implemented. And

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Speaker 4: this is two core to how this president is implementing

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Speaker 4: foreign policy, because foreign policy under the Constitution is given

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Speaker 4: principally to the president. So that's my prediction is five

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Speaker 4: to four the Court is going to upheld President Trump's

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Speaker 4: terrorf authority.

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Speaker 2: What does this also do for the future, and it

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Speaker 2: does this protect in essence the presidency. If it is

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Speaker 2: a five to four ruling, that look, we're going to

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Speaker 2: lose an election again, I think based on history where

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Speaker 2: a Democrats in the White House. But what I don't

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Speaker 2: want to see is every time someone's there, we're playing

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Speaker 2: these games. Like I want the president if he's chosen

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Speaker 2: by the people and the majority of the people decide

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Speaker 2: Bill Clinton's the president United States of America, that he

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Speaker 2: can do his job because that's through the people who chose.

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Speaker 2: I don't like presidents when they're being harassed or trying

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Speaker 2: to do their job.

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Speaker 4: Look for the foreseeable future, every president that comes into power,

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Speaker 4: you're going to have lawsuits challenging what they're doing.

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Speaker 3: That's just the reality of a divided country.

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Speaker 4: I will say this one thing where Donald Trump has

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Speaker 4: genuinely changed my mind concerns tariffs and trade policy. Now listen,

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Speaker 4: I'm a free trader. I still believe in free trade.

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Speaker 4: I think free trade is good for America. I think

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Speaker 4: it generates jobs. I think it generates economic growth. But

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Speaker 4: and this is a big, big.

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Speaker 2: Let me ask you for people listening, I want to,

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Speaker 2: I want to be clear explain free trade. And I

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Speaker 2: do this because people hear words and they don't exactly

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Speaker 2: know what means, and I get messages afterwards going I

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Speaker 2: wish you guys would have explained free trade. So when

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Speaker 2: you say you're a free trader, explain the definition of

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Speaker 2: that quickly.

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Speaker 4: So historically there have been two broad economic views of trade,

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Speaker 4: free traders and protectionists. Free traders believe that if you

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Speaker 4: expand trade and commerce between the United States and other countries,

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Speaker 4: that America benefits. That are farmers sell more goods, sell

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Speaker 4: more crops, sell more livestock into foreign countries. That are

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Speaker 4: manufacturers sell more products that are manufactured here. That are

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Speaker 4: service providers sell more services, and that the aggregate economic

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Speaker 4: impact is positive for the United States. Protectionists historically believed

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Speaker 4: you enact really high tariffs on imports, you discourage imports. Now,

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Speaker 4: by the way, when you do that, foreign countries enact

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Speaker 4: really high tariffs on imports to their countries, and you

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Speaker 4: end up principally selling goods into your own market. It

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Speaker 4: would mean the United States produces goods but mostly sells

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Speaker 4: them to America and doesn't sell them to the world.

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Speaker 4: I believe between the two that free trade has produced

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Speaker 4: far better economic growth. Now I'm going to give you

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Speaker 4: the caveat and where Trump has changed my mind.

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Speaker 3: I think President Trump.

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Speaker 4: Is deustrated that the thread of tariffs or the temporary

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Speaker 4: imposition of tariffs, is one of, if not the most

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Speaker 4: potent diplomatic and negotiating tool the president has. And what

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Speaker 4: we have seen is the President has used the thread

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Speaker 4: of tariffs to incredible effect and it has worked. So

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Speaker 4: let's rewind to last year April second, President Trump announced

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Speaker 4: a whole list of very high tariffs on the world.

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Speaker 4: I gotta say, ten years ago, Ben I would not

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Speaker 4: have liked that. I would have been very unhappy with that.

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Speaker 4: I would have said, look that this is going to

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Speaker 4: hurt the people of America because tariffs are taxes, and

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Speaker 4: their taxes paid by consumers. Now, the way a tariff operates,

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Speaker 4: and this gets down to economics. If you impose a

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Speaker 4: tariff and the actual good is sold, some of that

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Speaker 4: tariff is paid by the American consumers, and some of

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Speaker 4: the costs of that tar tariff is paid by the

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Speaker 4: foreign producer. And it depends on the particular market how

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Speaker 4: much is paid by the consumer versus the producer. I

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Speaker 4: was not upset though at the April second tariffs. And

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Speaker 4: here's why we've talked about this before on the podcast.

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Speaker 4: There is a battle within the Trump administration. There are

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Speaker 4: two camps. One camp is urging the president use the

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Speaker 4: tariffs you've imposed, the tariff shoe threatened as leverage to

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Speaker 4: get our foreign trading partners to lower their own tariffs

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Speaker 4: to open up their markets. A lot of foreign countries

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Speaker 4: have what are called non tariff barriers. They make it

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Speaker 4: very hard for American farmers and ranchers and manufacturers to

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Speaker 4: sell their products into foreign countries. And one camp says,

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Speaker 4: use the tariff's Trump is threatening to incentivize foreign countries

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Speaker 4: to open up their markets.

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Speaker 3: I am very much in that camp.

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Speaker 4: Scott Bessont, the Treasury Secretary, is very much in that camp.

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Speaker 4: Elon Musk, when he was in the administration, was very

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Speaker 4: much in that camp. There's a second camp, and that

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Speaker 4: is a camp that believes tariffs are great, not as

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Speaker 4: a means to an end, but as an end in

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Speaker 4: and of itself, and wants to see very high tariffs

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Speaker 4: in perpetuity forever. I think the leading person in the

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Speaker 4: administration in that camp is Peter Navarro in the White House.

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Speaker 4: I think that camp is mistaken. I think those policies

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Speaker 4: are harmful. I think if we have a world where

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Speaker 4: America has very high tariffs and all our trading partners

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Speaker 4: have very high tariffs, I think that's going to hurt

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Speaker 4: Texas farmers, Texas ranchers, manufacturers.

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Speaker 3: I think that's a bad outcome. And I think President Trump,

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Speaker 3: in the Oval.

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Speaker 4: On almost a daily basis, is listening to and deciding

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Speaker 4: between a battle between the two camps. How that resolves matters.

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Speaker 4: But my point the president's threat of tariffs. Listen, Donald

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Speaker 4: Trump is an unorthodox negotiator.

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Speaker 3: To put it.

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Speaker 1: Mild, his Yeah, that's a great way of putting it.

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Speaker 4: Look the way Trump negotiates, he walks up to you,

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Speaker 4: he whacks inned the head with a two by four,

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Speaker 4: and then he says, let's talk.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. I got to say it is effective.

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Speaker 4: And here's an amazing thing that I've seen, and it's

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Speaker 4: why Trump has changed my mind on tariffs. I've seen

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Speaker 4: over the last year and a couple of months our

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Speaker 4: trading partners rushing to America saying we want to slash

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Speaker 4: our tariffs and open our markets to American goods in

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Speaker 4: a way that I've never seen in my life. And

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Speaker 4: what I've verged the President is take yes for an answer.

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Speaker 4: You've threatened tariffs, they're lowering their tariffs. Negotiated deal where

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Speaker 4: everyone lowers their tariffs. That is a win win, and

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Speaker 4: there is an amazing irony. There's an amazing irony, Ben

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Speaker 4: in that. I think there's a real possibility Donald J.

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Speaker 4: Trump could go down in history as the greatest free

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Speaker 4: trade president the world has ever seen. Now that's astonishing

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Speaker 4: because he is Historically he's been a skeptic, of vocal

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Speaker 4: skeptic of free trade, and yet by threatening tariffs, a

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Speaker 4: huge part of his argument against what was considered free

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Speaker 4: trade is he said, look, this is not free.

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Speaker 3: This is not fair.

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Speaker 4: We have no tariffs or very low tariffs on products

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Speaker 4: coming into our market, and every other country has really

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Speaker 4: high tariffs and hammer our manufacturers. That's not fair. He's

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Speaker 4: right about that. And so what I've verged the President's

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Speaker 4: take yes for an answer and focus on reciprocity. If

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Speaker 4: they lower their tariffs, we lower ours. And I got

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Speaker 4: to say, I think Trump has shown that is an

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Speaker 4: incredibly effective foreign policy and economic policy.

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Speaker 2: There's also and added benefit that we've seen, and there

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Speaker 2: was a lot of people that were skeptical, that were nervous,

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Speaker 2: and that is how much money we've collected through these tariffs.

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Speaker 2: That has been also I think one of those like

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Speaker 2: X factors of this as well, because as the President

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Speaker 2: was playing this high stakes game of chicken in essence

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Speaker 2: and we keep winning, we were also collecting an awful

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Speaker 2: lot of money.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that was one of the upsides of this as well.

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Speaker 4: Unquestionably one hundred and thirty three billion dollars has come

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Speaker 4: in already. And let's do a little bit of a

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Speaker 4: breakdown of the oral argument. So at the oral argument,

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Speaker 4: John Sower, who is the US Solicitor General, he argued

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Speaker 4: for the United States Neil Catchall argued for the plaintiffs,

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Speaker 4: the small businesses. Now I know Neil very well. Neil

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Speaker 4: was Solicitor General under Obama. Neil clerked at the Supreme

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Speaker 4: Court at the same time I did so when I

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Speaker 4: was clerky for Chief Justice Renquist. Neil was clerky for

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Speaker 4: Steven Bryer. So we're friends. We've known each other a

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Speaker 4: long time. In fact, in two thousand, during the two

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Speaker 4: thousand election between George W. Bush and and Al Gore,

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Speaker 4: I was part of the litigation team representing Bush and

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Speaker 4: Bush versus Gore. Neil was part of the litigation team

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Speaker 4: representing Al Gore. And we're buddies. We're friends. So we

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Speaker 4: would call each other late at night and we were like,

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Speaker 4: what kind of ridiculous argument are you're making? This is stupid,

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Speaker 4: I can't believe you're saying this. And it's a little

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Speaker 4: bit just friends giving each other a hard time. And

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Speaker 4: we actually had a wager Neil and I did on

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Speaker 4: the outcome. I said, look, Bush's gonna prevail, We're gonna win.

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Speaker 4: He said, no, Gore's gonna prevail. Well, obviously I won

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Speaker 4: that wager, and the wager was dinner, and so Neil

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Speaker 4: had to take me out to dinner. But you're gonna

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Speaker 4: like this, Ben, do you know what Neil did to

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Speaker 4: sort of exact his revenge as he was paying off

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Speaker 4: the wager.

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Speaker 1: I cannot wait to hear this.

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Speaker 3: He took me to a vegetarian restaurant.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, if you've ever had dinner with you, that's like

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Speaker 2: taking me to to terry in restaurant.

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Speaker 1: That's like the worst decision ever. So what did you

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Speaker 1: even order?

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Speaker 4: I don't remember. I have vegetables because they didn't have any.

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Speaker 4: Meet I'm a carnivore.

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Speaker 3: But I kind of laughed.

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Speaker 4: I was like, all right, Neil well played Okay. So

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Speaker 4: Neil is a very experienced, very capable Supreme Court lawyer.

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Speaker 4: So is John Sower. So you had two excellent advocates

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Speaker 4: going at it. Let's take Chief Justice Roberts. Chief Justice

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Speaker 4: Roberts repeatedly tried to reframe the case away from foreign

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Speaker 4: affairs and towards taxation of Americans. So, for example, Chief

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Speaker 4: Justice Roberts asked, he said, tariff's and dealings with foreign powers. Yes,

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Speaker 4: but the vehicle is the imposition of taxes on Americans,

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Speaker 4: and that has always been the core power of Congress

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Speaker 4: and John Sower tried to press back on behalf of

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Speaker 4: the Trump administration, and Roberts responded, well, who pays the tariff?

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Speaker 4: If a tariff is imposed on automobiles, who pays them?

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Speaker 4: And the answers I said before is consumers pay some

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Speaker 4: of them and the foreign producer pays some of them.

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Speaker 4: Roberts went on and he highlighted the structural collision between

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Speaker 4: the executive foreign affairs power and Congress's taxing authority. Roberts said, quote,

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Speaker 4: to have the president's foreign affairs power Trump, that basic

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Speaker 4: power of Congress seems to me at least to neutralize

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Speaker 4: between the two powers, the executive power and the legislative power.

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Speaker 4: And then he said, yes, of course tariffs and dealings

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Speaker 4: with foreign powers, but the vehicle is the imposition of

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Speaker 4: taxes on Americans. Justice Kagan, so, Justice Kagan is the

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Speaker 4: smartest of the liberal justices on the Court by far.

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Speaker 4: I know Justice Kagan well, she was the dean of

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Speaker 4: the Harvard Law School. She was the US Solicitor General also,

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Speaker 4: and she's a very very smart liberal lawyer and judge.

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Speaker 4: What Justice Kagan tried to do is frame this all

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Speaker 4: within the non delegation doctrine so Justice Kagan said about

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Speaker 4: the taxing power, she said, quote, but not with respect

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Speaker 4: to tariffs, not with respect to quintessential taxing powers, which

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Speaker 4: are given by the Constitution to Congress. And she framed

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Speaker 4: the case through the delegation doctrine, saying, quote in consumers'

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Speaker 4: research just last year, which is the case the Supreme

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Speaker 4: Court just decided, we had a tax before us. If

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Speaker 4: there's no ceiling on this tax, we sort of assumed

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Speaker 4: if there was no ceiling, it would raise a delegation

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Speaker 4: power problem.

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Speaker 3: And then she applied that logic to AEPA.

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Speaker 4: She said, how does your argument fit with the idea

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Speaker 4: that a tax with no sealing, a tax that can

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Speaker 4: be anything the president wants, would raise a pretty deep

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Speaker 4: delegation problem. And she rejected the government's argument to relabel tariff.

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Speaker 4: She said, no, not with respect to tariff's, not with

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Speaker 4: respect to quintessential taxing powers. Now understand what Justice Kagan

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Speaker 4: is doing. The non delegation doctrine is a very important

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Speaker 4: constitutional limitation on Congress giving too much power to the executive.

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Speaker 4: It is also something conservatives care a great deal about.

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Speaker 4: I think Justice Kagan, Justice Kagan, the three liberals are

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Speaker 4: going to vote against Trump no matter what, in any circumstance.

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Speaker 3: So Kagan is a no.

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Speaker 4: But she's trying in a very savvy way to argue

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Speaker 4: it in a way that will appeal to Justice Gorsich,

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Speaker 4: Chief Justice Roberts, or Justice Barrett. She's trying to frame

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Speaker 4: it in terms of conservative principles. Now, Justice Corsic, if

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Speaker 4: you look at his questions, his question showed a significant

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Speaker 4: degree of skepticism to the administration's position, and in particular

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Speaker 4: focusing on the Major Questions doctrine. Again, the Major's Questions

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Speaker 4: doctrine is a big conservative principle that limits the power

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Speaker 4: of the executive branch. It's really important. So Gorsuch asked,

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Speaker 4: what is the limiting principle here? And he asked further,

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Speaker 4: if regulate importation includes tariffs, what stops the president from

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Speaker 4: imposing them for any asserted foreign threat? He asked some hypotheticals.

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Speaker 4: He said, could the president impose massive tariffs to address

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Speaker 4: something like climate change if that's deemed a foreign threat?

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Speaker 4: It's actually a good question, And he pressed further. He said,

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Speaker 4: once you accept that premise, it's hard to see what's

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Speaker 4: left of the limitation.

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Speaker 3: Justice Barrett.

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Speaker 4: She went on to say Congress knows how to grant

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Speaker 4: tariff authority explicitly, Why isn't clearer language required if Congress

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Speaker 4: meant to confer that power? And she pressed the US

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Speaker 4: Solicitor General. She said, if regulate imports includes tariffs of

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Speaker 4: any size, what work is left for the rest of

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Speaker 4: the statute to do? Where do we find the limiting

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Speaker 4: principle in the statute itself? So look, in terms of

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Speaker 4: the questioning, Roberts appeared skeptical, Gorstch appeared skeptical, and Barrett

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Speaker 4: appeared skeptical. So on the conservative side, the justice that

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Speaker 4: seemed most receptive was Brett Kavanaugh. And Brett Kavanaugh said

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Speaker 4: the Court has historically been very comfortable with very broad

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Speaker 4: delegations in the foreign affairs context. So he framed it

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Speaker 4: in terms of, look, the president has enormous flexibility when

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Speaker 4: it comes to foreign affairs. Justice Kavanaugh said in one

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Speaker 4: of his opinions that the non delegation concerns have less

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Speaker 4: force where Congress is empowering the president and foreign affairs

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Speaker 4: and and Justice Kavanaugh focused on the historical practice, said

438
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 4: there's a long tradition of broad delegations over foreign commerce

439
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:14,199
Speaker 4: going back to the founding, and and he engaged the

440
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 4: Solicitor General seriously. He said, that's consistent with cases like

441
00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:23,160
Speaker 4: Chicago and Southern Airlines, and Curtis right, I think Kavanaugh

442
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:25,320
Speaker 4: is going to be a likely vote to uphold the

443
00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:31,800
Speaker 4: tariff authority and and so that argument was significant. Now,

444
00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:37,240
Speaker 4: Justice Thomas. Justice Thomas historically asked very few questions that

445
00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:41,280
Speaker 4: was true here, but his questions were focused on history

446
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:44,000
Speaker 4: and the original understanding of the Constitution.

447
00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:45,440
Speaker 3: So Justice Thomas.

448
00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:51,119
Speaker 4: Asked, historically, weren't tariffs one of the primary ways Congress

449
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:55,120
Speaker 4: regulated foreign commerce? And he went back to that. He said,

450
00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:58,960
Speaker 4: at the founding there was a sharp distinction. Was there

451
00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:04,520
Speaker 4: a sharp distinction between regulating imports and imposing duties on them?

452
00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:07,560
Speaker 4: So he was very much focused on what the practice

453
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:10,399
Speaker 4: of the country has been from the founding. He also asked,

454
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:16,840
Speaker 4: if tariffs were understood as tools of trade regulation, why

455
00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:20,119
Speaker 4: wouldn't the power to regulate foreign commerce include them?

456
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:20,879
Speaker 3: Very good question.

457
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:26,320
Speaker 4: And when it came to non delegate the non delegation doctrine,

458
00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:31,520
Speaker 4: he said the following quote, non delegation is a modern doctrine.

459
00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:36,199
Speaker 4: What evidence do we have that Congress historically could not

460
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:41,520
Speaker 4: confer this kind of authority in matters of foreign commerce.

461
00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:46,679
Speaker 4: Justice Thomas's question suggests he is very likely to vote

462
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 4: in favor of the president's tariff authority. And then let's

463
00:27:51,560 --> 00:28:00,000
Speaker 4: focus on Justice Alito. Justice Alito was really focused on workability,

464
00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 4: the remedies and consequences, so he said, he was asking

465
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:10,679
Speaker 4: about practicality. He said, if we accept your position, what

466
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:13,240
Speaker 4: happens to all the tariffs that have already been collected?

467
00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:17,560
Speaker 4: He also highlighted, and I think this is critical. This

468
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:21,359
Speaker 4: may be the most important question asked. There are enormous

469
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:25,760
Speaker 4: reliance interest here, both for the government and for private

470
00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:29,720
Speaker 4: actors who have ordered their affairs around these teriffs. And

471
00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:32,480
Speaker 4: he questions the plaintiffs, He said, is your position that

472
00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:38,760
Speaker 4: must always use the word tariff expressly even in statutes

473
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:42,560
Speaker 4: dealing with foreign emergencies? That doesn't sound very plausible, And

474
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:45,440
Speaker 4: he pressed whether the case could be resolved narrowly. He said,

475
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:48,320
Speaker 4: why isn't this something that can be handled through a

476
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:52,040
Speaker 4: limiting construction rather than a broad holding that calls into

477
00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:56,440
Speaker 4: question a lot of past practice. I actually think Justice

478
00:28:56,520 --> 00:29:00,840
Speaker 4: Alito's questioning is going to frame aim what the Court

479
00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:05,360
Speaker 4: does now. We have in a lot of big cases

480
00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:07,680
Speaker 4: of six' three. Divide you have the three liberals who

481
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:12,880
Speaker 4: vote Against trump on, everything and you have six justices

482
00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:15,479
Speaker 4: that are on the conservative side of the, aisle although they.

483
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 4: Vary i'm going to predict we're going to lose. ONE

484
00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:21,560
Speaker 4: i don't know, which BUT i think we will lose

485
00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:27,160
Speaker 4: in all likelihood Either gorsic or bear. It even Though

486
00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:31,600
Speaker 4: Chief Justice roberts was skeptical at oral. Argument i'm going

487
00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:35,080
Speaker 4: to predict The Chief Justice roberts votes to uphold the,

488
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:37,360
Speaker 4: tariffs And i'm going to predict that he writes the majority.

489
00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 3: Opinion and, wow the.

490
00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:44,080
Speaker 1: Reasons bold, predictions by the, Way this makes it.

491
00:29:44,120 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 4: Fun and, LOOK i have no insight. INFORMATION i could

492
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 4: be totally, wrong BUT i do know the court quite.

493
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:53,520
Speaker 4: WELL i did spend my entire career BEFORE i was

494
00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:55,239
Speaker 4: in The senate was arguing before The.

495
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:59,640
Speaker 3: Court and, Look roberts in particular is an.

496
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:04,760
Speaker 4: Instantittionalist AND i actually think this case is quite similar

497
00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:09,680
Speaker 4: to The obamacare. Case The obamacare case during The obama

498
00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 4: presidency was a challenge To, obamacare and Ultimately Chief Justice

499
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:19,080
Speaker 4: roberts Upheld, obamacare AND i think he did so because

500
00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:21,640
Speaker 4: he thought to strike it down would be a massive,

501
00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 4: change would wreak, chaos and it would question the legitimacy

502
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:29,680
Speaker 4: of the. Court it would question the authority of the.

503
00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:32,440
Speaker 4: Court and SO i think he made an institutionalist, decision

504
00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 4: let's not disrupt the status. QUO i think that same

505
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:42,280
Speaker 4: instinct here is going to lead him to, say these

506
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:45,560
Speaker 4: tariffs have been. Imposed they've been the heart of the

507
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:49,640
Speaker 4: president's foreign policy and economic, policy and so we're not

508
00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:50,440
Speaker 4: going to set them.

509
00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 3: Aside that is my.

510
00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:54,480
Speaker 4: Prediction and you will end up with a majority that

511
00:30:54,560 --> 00:31:00,680
Speaker 4: consists Of Chief Justice roberts writing the majority, Opinion thomas And,

512
00:31:00,760 --> 00:31:06,239
Speaker 4: alito And, cavanaugh and either bear it Or, gorsage and

513
00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:08,760
Speaker 4: the dissenters will be the three liberals and either bear

514
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:08,960
Speaker 4: it Or.

515
00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 3: Gorsach that's my. Prediction we'll see what happens.

516
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:12,640
Speaker 1: For the next sixty.

517
00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:15,360
Speaker 2: Seconds can you hit pause on your life and just

518
00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:19,440
Speaker 2: think about. This in communities around the, world millions of

519
00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:23,720
Speaker 2: children Like lucy faced the crushing weight of, poverty, hunger,

520
00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:28,480
Speaker 2: illness and a lack of opportunity dim their bright. Futures

521
00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:33,960
Speaker 2: but Through Compassion international and local, churches everything is. Changing

522
00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:39,240
Speaker 2: lucy receives nourishing, food vital medical, care and the chance

523
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 2: to go to. School she learns life, skills Develops god given,

524
00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:48,120
Speaker 2: talents and builds a loving relationship With. Jesus it's a

525
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 2: journey from vulnerability to empowerment and it's.

526
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 1: Sparked literally by your.

527
00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:58,400
Speaker 2: Love this transformation echoes far Beyond, lucy impacting her, family the,

528
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:01,680
Speaker 2: community and shaping the future of her. Nation and you

529
00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:05,800
Speaker 2: can make this profound difference right. Now so join me

530
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 2: in sponsoring a. Child visit compassion dot com. Today you'll

531
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 2: empower life and change the. World that's compassion dot com

532
00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 2: to learn. More all, right final question for, you and

533
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:22,520
Speaker 2: that is the politics of. This if it comes out

534
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:25,440
Speaker 2: the way that you just, predicted how big of a

535
00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 2: victory is this specifically For Donald trump and how important

536
00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:32,640
Speaker 2: is it moving forward for the next three years of his.

537
00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:36,440
Speaker 2: Presidency and the second question is how big of a

538
00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:39,680
Speaker 2: defeat is this for the left who immediately went After

539
00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:42,320
Speaker 2: Donald trump with the tariffs and said doom and gloom

540
00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:43,520
Speaker 2: and said this is going to be.

541
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 4: Overturned, look if The trump administration, wins it's a big.

542
00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:51,960
Speaker 4: Deal this is the central part of his foreign policy

543
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:54,000
Speaker 4: and trade. Policy by the, way we've also talked about

544
00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:55,280
Speaker 4: how he's used tariffs at other.

545
00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:57,360
Speaker 3: Circumstances for, Example.

546
00:32:57,840 --> 00:33:01,040
Speaker 4: We've done a deep dive previously on using tariffs to

547
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 4: Force mexico to provide water To South. Texas that's Something

548
00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:08,680
Speaker 4: i've urged him to. Do he's threatened tariffs And. Mexico

549
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:12,440
Speaker 4: during the Entire biden. Administration mexico had been violating the

550
00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:15,440
Speaker 4: nineteen forty four water treaty with The United states and

551
00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:18,560
Speaker 4: had stolen over a million acre feet of water From South.

552
00:33:18,600 --> 00:33:22,640
Speaker 4: Texas The biden administration would do nothing to Force mexico

553
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 4: to comply with a. Treaty President, trump at my, urging

554
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:30,920
Speaker 4: threatened tariffs Against, mexico And mexico immediately. Complied it was

555
00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:33,440
Speaker 4: powerful and. Effective it's a big part of the REASON

556
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:37,120
Speaker 4: i changed my. Mind i'm, Like, wow we Got mexico

557
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:40,640
Speaker 4: to do something in our national interest just by threatening.

558
00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:44,680
Speaker 4: Tariffs now'd to be, clear if we imposed high tariffs

559
00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 4: and perpetuity Against, MEXICO i think that'd be really bad For,

560
00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:49,720
Speaker 4: america to be terrible For.

561
00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:50,200
Speaker 3: Texas.

562
00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 4: Texas our, farmers, ranchers manufacturers make enormous money trading With,

563
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:57,880
Speaker 4: mexico SO i don't want to see high trade. Barriers

564
00:33:58,440 --> 00:34:02,600
Speaker 4: but the threat of tariffs Got mexico to provide the

565
00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:05,720
Speaker 4: water they owed us under the. Treaty, now if the

566
00:34:05,760 --> 00:34:08,680
Speaker 4: decision goes the wrong way from The trump, administration if

567
00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:10,440
Speaker 4: they strike down the, tariffs it's not the end of

568
00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:14,000
Speaker 4: the day because there are other avenues to impose.

569
00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:15,120
Speaker 3: Tariffs so they're, three in.

570
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:19,760
Speaker 4: Particular number, one section three oh one of The Trade

571
00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 4: act of nineteen seventy, four which authorizes tariffs to ENFORCE

572
00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:27,080
Speaker 4: us rights under trade agreements or to counter unfair foreign.

573
00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:31,320
Speaker 4: Practices the second way that president could try to impose

574
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:34,480
Speaker 4: these tariffs again is under section two thirty two of

575
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:38,240
Speaker 4: The Trade Expansion act of nineteen sixty, two which allows

576
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:43,520
Speaker 4: tariffs on imports threatening national, security which was the Vehicle

577
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:48,319
Speaker 4: trump used for stealing aluminum. Tariffs and the third is

578
00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:51,719
Speaker 4: under section two oh one of The Trade act of

579
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:56,400
Speaker 4: nineteen seventy, four which permits temporary quote safeguard tariffs to

580
00:34:56,520 --> 00:35:01,560
Speaker 4: protect domestic industries from serious injury caused by import. Surgis

581
00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:05,280
Speaker 4: so there are three other statutory bases that the president

582
00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 4: could go, to and if The Spring court rules against,

583
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:08,960
Speaker 4: HIM i think The president.

584
00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:09,879
Speaker 3: Will go to use.

585
00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:12,560
Speaker 4: Those so you could end up at the same, result

586
00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:14,879
Speaker 4: but at the end of the, Day i'm going back

587
00:35:14,880 --> 00:35:17,520
Speaker 4: to my prediction five to four The trump administration.

588
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:20,719
Speaker 1: Prevails, wow it's gonna be really fun to watch. THAT

589
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:21,200
Speaker 1: i love the.

590
00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:25,280
Speaker 2: Prediction, well, obviously let you know how the prediction works.

591
00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:27,960
Speaker 2: Out and you're either gonna look. BRILLIANT i have no prediction,

592
00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:30,160
Speaker 2: here So i'm just gonna let this be either you're

593
00:35:30,239 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 2: brilliant OR i get to rag on you in the

594
00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:32,719
Speaker 2: show after.

595
00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:33,760
Speaker 1: This i'm excited about.

596
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 2: That rarely do you give me that, chance by the,

597
00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 2: way so for, me this is kind of. Fun i'm

598
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:39,680
Speaker 2: not gonna. Lie i'm not gonna.

599
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:41,600
Speaker 1: Lie don't. Forget we do this Show, Monday Wednesday.

600
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:45,239
Speaker 2: Friday hit that subscribe or auto download button wherever you

601
00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:47,800
Speaker 2: get your. Podcasts if you like to watch the, podcast

602
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 2: you can do that on YouTube Or. Facebook and you

603
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:52,960
Speaker 2: can also hit that subscribe button on YouTube so that

604
00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:54,759
Speaker 2: you don't miss an episode there as. Well and The

605
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:56,880
Speaker 2: senate AND i will see you back here On friday.

606
00:35:56,880 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 1: Morning