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Speaker 1: Hello, everybody, Welcome into the Betting Pros Podcast. I am

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Speaker 1: Ryan Warmley, joined today by Jason Lisk and by PJ Glasser. Jason,

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Speaker 1: you and I were just talking a little Mark Benns

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Speaker 1: last night reacting live selection Sunday, and I figured, let's

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Speaker 1: do it again here, but for the Betting Pros side everybody,

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Speaker 1: and once we hear our reactions, to go check that

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Speaker 1: out on the Fantasy Pros feed day we are talking betting.

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Speaker 1: Jason of course, joining us from Pool Genius. Jason. I mean,

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Speaker 1: like I said, we kind of had that instant, immediate

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Speaker 1: stuff reaction last night. Now we've had a day to digest.

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Speaker 2: How are you feeling, you know, I would like to

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Speaker 2: change all my answers. No, I'm sure after sleeping on it. No,

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Speaker 2: and I feel good. It was good to, you know,

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Speaker 2: then be able to jump in and look at the lines.

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Speaker 2: You know. I was so busy with the brackets. I

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Speaker 2: missed some of the early line movement one of a

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Speaker 2: couple of the ones I liked, but I think they're

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Speaker 2: still good and we'll talk about them.

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Speaker 1: We'll definitely jump into all those PJ of course, joining

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Speaker 1: us from bet QL. PJ and I have done plenty

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Speaker 1: of tiktoks together on the betting pro side. Obviously we

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Speaker 1: go back a long way, but this is one of

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Speaker 1: the first times we've done actual March Madness content on

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Speaker 1: one of these shows together typically folks in the football

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Speaker 1: So I'm happy to be talking a little college hoops

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Speaker 1: with you.

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Speaker 3: Always when we got the best two days of the

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Speaker 3: year coming up, best sporting event with the NCAA Tournament,

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Speaker 3: So I'm excited excited to break it down with you

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Speaker 3: and Jason. It feels like every year, you know, people

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Speaker 3: kind of say that, oh, there's not a clear cut winner,

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Speaker 3: and there are a lot of different teams that can

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Speaker 3: win it, and for the first time in a while,

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Speaker 3: it feels like everybody's kind of picking the same team.

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Speaker 3: So I think it's going to make for an interesting,

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Speaker 3: interesting tournament.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll definitely, you know, have some fun running through that,

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Speaker 1: and we'll try and highlight teams for everybody, both that

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Speaker 1: might be undervalued and that might be overvalued, and kind

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Speaker 1: of see where we where we line up and everything.

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Speaker 1: As I said before, I just want to rematch for everybody.

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Speaker 1: Jason and I did go live on the Fantasy pros

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Speaker 1: feed last night. You can find that on YouTube or

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Speaker 1: on the bet pros erchiem, on the Fantasy pros feed, Spotify,

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Speaker 1: wherever you listen to your podcast today. Like I said,

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Speaker 1: we're hitting the betting angles with our two experts here PG.

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Speaker 1: I want to start with you on some of these

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Speaker 1: day after bracket reactions. You know, I kind of mentioned

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Speaker 1: it with with Jason, but you've had a night to

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Speaker 1: sleep on it. Now we've seen we had the big

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Speaker 1: bracket reveal. It's there's so much information that comes out

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Speaker 1: that first night. Everybody you know which is the region

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Speaker 1: to death and you know who's gonna come out where?

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Speaker 1: What's everybody's first just immediately gut reaction Final four. Now

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Speaker 1: that you've slept on it, you've done your own show,

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Speaker 1: we've had some time to research. What were your sort

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Speaker 1: of you know, day after initial takeaways here from the

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Speaker 1: bracket reveal.

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Speaker 4: I think there were big two one.

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Speaker 3: There were two big ones where I'd say the first

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Speaker 3: one is that East regional. I can't remember a time

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Speaker 3: where we had that many conference champions in the top

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Speaker 3: four or five seeds and how loaded it is. Right

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Speaker 3: obviously you come won the Big East, they're the defending champs,

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Speaker 3: but giving them, the Big twelve conference tournament champs in

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Speaker 3: Iowa State, the Big Ten Tournament champs in Illinois, and

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Speaker 3: then all burn out of the you have according to

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Speaker 3: ken Palm, three of the top five teams overall and

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Speaker 3: ken Pom are all in the East Regional for the

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Speaker 3: top eleven teams on offense or in the East for

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Speaker 3: the top eleven defenses are in the East.

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Speaker 4: So it's absolutely loaded.

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Speaker 3: It feels like a lot of these teams, right if

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Speaker 3: you put Iowa State, Illinois, Auburn and some of these

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Speaker 3: other regions, they'd be extremely popular, but because they're in

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Speaker 3: Yukon's region, people are kind of overlooking them. So just

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Speaker 3: how low to that East Regional was really stuck stuck

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Speaker 3: out to me?

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Speaker 4: And then the other.

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Speaker 3: One would probably be we had thirty two conference tournaments

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Speaker 3: and of those thirty two nineteen one seeds lost. Right,

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Speaker 3: there were a ton of bid steelers and because of that,

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Speaker 3: we have a lot of eleven, twelve, thirteen seeds this

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Speaker 3: year that other years. You know, if you look and

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Speaker 3: you compare it in the past, these teams like a

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Speaker 3: Ducune in the eleven right, or a twelve seed that

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Speaker 3: we have with UAB, like these teams are rated low

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Speaker 3: opposed to other years, some of these eleven seeds ten seeds,

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Speaker 3: So I think the conference tournament week and the fact

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Speaker 3: that we had so many big Steelers as well, it

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Speaker 3: makes it very interesting as well.

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Speaker 1: Jason, what was your reaction to seeing some of those

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Speaker 1: teams on that kind of ten eleven seed line range?

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Speaker 2: You know, I mean, obviously the way the weekend shook out,

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Speaker 2: it wasn't completely unexpected. After we had all that happened

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Speaker 2: basically altered the dynamics of the bracket. Typically, our cut

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Speaker 2: line is that like the last eleven seed, sometimes a

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Speaker 2: twelve seed is a play in. We saw that with

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Speaker 2: with you know, I'm trying to think Oregon was a

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Speaker 2: twelve a few years ago. There was like a case

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Speaker 2: I guess Georgetown and Oregon State won the titles, what

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Speaker 2: was it, two or three years ago, and we're put

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Speaker 2: on the twelve line. We're getting tens and elevens out

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Speaker 2: of those teams right now now. I do think there

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Speaker 2: was a mix of like really good type of twelves

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Speaker 2: some some times would have been thirteen's in the past,

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Speaker 2: but there's definitely creep in the bottom half the thirteens

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Speaker 2: fourteens fifteen sixteens are probably on average much lower power

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Speaker 2: rated than a typical year, which has created bigger spreads

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Speaker 2: in some of these games.

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Speaker 1: Jason, we talked last night about that draw for Yukon

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Speaker 1: and how the committee did them no favors. Again, after

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Speaker 1: having a night to sleep on it, we're still thinking

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Speaker 1: that was kind of the tough draft as far the

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Speaker 1: top seeds go, right.

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Speaker 2: It is the tough drawl after the first weekend. I

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Speaker 2: think the first weekend. Although Florida Atlantic's there, Florida Atlantic

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Speaker 2: has not been in good form certainly for a while.

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Speaker 2: Will they recapture it, Who knows, but they certainly haven't looked.

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Speaker 2: Last year they were on my short list of teams

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Speaker 2: to watch coming in. They were peaking entering the NCAA

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Speaker 2: Tournament when they played Memphis. You certainly didn't foresee the

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Speaker 2: final four run in coming from the nine seed, but

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Speaker 2: they were on the rise. That is not the case

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Speaker 2: this year. Northwestern has actually played better than you would

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Speaker 2: expect based on the injury as they've had, but they

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Speaker 2: are injury impacted. That would be that's probably the weakest

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Speaker 2: eight nine, so they do catch a break. I think

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Speaker 2: early they I would be stunned if they lose to

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Speaker 2: one of those teams, honestly, But then after that it

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Speaker 2: gets tough. It gets tough for them. Now they're the best,

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Speaker 2: they're the best team. They're the best team, and they're

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Speaker 2: they're the favorite for a reason because when they have

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Speaker 2: all their pieces together, they have been dominant in a

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Speaker 2: way that the others maybe haven't quite been against the

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Speaker 2: top teams on their schedule.

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Speaker 1: PJ. Is there a top seed that you feel like

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Speaker 1: got the most favorable draw? If Yukon is kind of

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Speaker 1: on the opposite end of that, I.

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Speaker 3: Think UNC got a really good draw. I think, you know,

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Speaker 3: I agree with Jason. I think the eight to nine

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Speaker 3: matchup for Yukon FA or a Northwestern is very favorable.

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Speaker 3: I think for UNC, if they can get past the

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Speaker 3: eight to nine game in Mississippi State and Michigan State,

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Speaker 3: I really like how their region sets up for him.

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Speaker 3: Alabama is a four seed that I think every top

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Speaker 3: seed wanted in their region. They're really playing bad at

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Speaker 3: the wrong time. Saint Mary's is a team that is

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Speaker 3: in the tournament year after year but really can never

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Speaker 3: make a deep run. Arizona just feels like is a

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Speaker 3: team that people really don't trust. Baylor is a three seed.

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Speaker 3: I don't see going all that far, so I thought

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Speaker 3: of all the one seeds, UNC's path certainly looks like

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Speaker 3: the most favorable.

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Speaker 1: Jason. You don't know this, but PJ did go to Alabama,

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Speaker 1: so if he's talking down on them, you know that

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Speaker 1: he really means it and surely believes that he's.

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Speaker 2: Fully aware of the defensive issues they've had over the

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Speaker 2: last month. Yes, definitely, I mean yeah, in fact on

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Speaker 2: that point, and I feel bad, like when I bracketed out,

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Speaker 2: I actually moved BYU to the sixteen, the final four seed,

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Speaker 2: and had Alabama drop into the five line. The committee

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Speaker 2: disagreed me with me by one slot, and then because

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Speaker 2: they did so, they bumped BYU to the six because

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Speaker 2: of the Sunday rule, which they could have made this

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Speaker 2: a better bracket. I think by just having BYU four

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Speaker 2: Alabama five, this Alabama team is a traditional five that struggles.

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Speaker 2: They are entering the tournament not peaking, playing bad defense.

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Speaker 2: I do agree with that part. I think that Michigan

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Speaker 2: State Mississippi State game is tough, and I think the

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Speaker 2: betting markets generally agree. Because North Carolina has advanced to

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Speaker 2: Sweet sixteen, numbers are low and then they pick up,

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Speaker 2: and so I think what you're dealing with is a

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Speaker 2: high variant situation. With North Carolina, they have a very

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Speaker 2: I think, a very tough eight nine matchup compared to

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Speaker 2: a typical one seed.

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Speaker 1: Jason, I sort of threw this at you, you know,

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Speaker 1: in the heat of the moment last night. I wonder again,

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Speaker 1: now that you've had more time to look at the bracket,

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Speaker 1: is there a matchup after the first round, a potential

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Speaker 1: matchup that you'd like to see?

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Speaker 2: Oh, there are all sorts of numbers. I mean, it

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Speaker 2: depends on how deep we want to go. We want

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Speaker 2: to go to Yukon.

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Speaker 1: Augit at whatever round would excite you.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, look, I get excited about all these games.

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Speaker 2: I'm twisted. Yukon Auburn would be a fantastic That's We've

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Speaker 2: had this come up occasionally, and sometimes the fours of one,

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Speaker 2: sometimes the ones of one. I'm thinking back to when

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Speaker 2: Michigan beat Kansas and went to the championship game as

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Speaker 2: a four. It was they were that type of team.

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Speaker 2: Yukon last year didn't even have to play Kansas, but

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Speaker 2: then we saw I think a year where Louisville was

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Speaker 2: a four but rated in the top four on kin

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Speaker 2: Palm and lost. I'm trying to think it was Kentucky

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Speaker 2: or I think it might have been. Wait, actually they

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Speaker 2: were the four. Wichitau State was the one, Kentucky was

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Speaker 2: the eight, Louisville was rated in the top five, and

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Speaker 2: people are like, oh, this is Louisville's bracket, and then

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Speaker 2: Kentucky beat them as the eight seed and went all

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Speaker 2: the way in the championship game. So we've had these

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Speaker 2: tough fours, these tough regions, and I think this is

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Speaker 2: one of those where you're like, man, that is a

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Speaker 2: potential final four matchup in the sweet sixteen, and whoever

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Speaker 2: wins that game, if they both play, will probably be

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Speaker 2: the betting market favorite to win from the elite eight

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Speaker 2: on against the rest of the against everybody else once

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Speaker 2: they're past that point. I think that's how the markets

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Speaker 2: would shape up if we looked ahead in the future.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it's interesting. I think you sort of frame

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Speaker 1: it as like a potential final four matchup. It's very easy,

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Speaker 1: especially like as a casual fan, to get anchored to

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Speaker 1: the seed line that they're and in this tournament. But

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Speaker 1: a one seed versus a four seed, it might sound

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Speaker 1: like kind of, you know, somewhat radically different. It's still

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Speaker 1: too like top fifteen teams, I mean, maybe even higher

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Speaker 1: depending on how you're personally rating them. So it's still

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Speaker 1: a very very strong matchup where you know everybody will

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Speaker 1: be picking Yukon, but you can certainly see that being

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Speaker 1: a very close, exciting, really really fun matchup. PJ. What

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Speaker 1: about you, any matchup you know, theoretically down the line,

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Speaker 1: whether it's second round, Sweet sixteen, elite eate, anything that

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Speaker 1: you would be really excited to see.

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Speaker 3: That Yukon and Auburn game was the first one that

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Speaker 3: jumped out to me as well. I think UNC in

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Speaker 3: Arizona would be awesome just because it's the Caleb Love game,

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Speaker 3: right and getting to watch him against his former team

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Speaker 3: with a trip to the Final four like that, that

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Speaker 3: would be pretty cool. I think Tennessee and Perdue, another

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Speaker 3: one and two matchup would be awesome just because of

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Speaker 3: the coaches. You're talking about two excellent regular season coaches

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Speaker 3: with Rick Barnes and Matt Painter. Those guys have the

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Speaker 3: regular season figured out. They always have good teams. Barnes

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Speaker 3: is only been the Final four once Painter has never been.

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Speaker 3: So if we can get a regional final with both

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Speaker 3: of those coaches and somebody has to go to the

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Speaker 3: final four, I think that would be that would be

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Speaker 3: really cool. So I'm with Jason UConn Olbrough and be

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Speaker 3: at the top of the list. The fact that we

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Speaker 3: would get a final four caliber game in the sweet

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Speaker 3: sixteen would be really good. But I think that unc

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Speaker 3: Arizona and Tennessee Perdue matchup, we'd have a ton of

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Speaker 3: storylines as well.

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Speaker 1: We could see Rick Barnes going up against Texas in

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Speaker 1: the second round too, just him given a lot of

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Speaker 1: fun matchups for Tennessee in that region. And then PG.

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Speaker 1: I want to ask you because Jason and I talked

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Speaker 1: about this last night already, but in really it's where

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Speaker 1: most people usually start. Were there any like particular snubs

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Speaker 1: that you feel pretty strongly about or seeding issues that

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Speaker 1: you were pretty taken it back by when you saw

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Speaker 1: the reveal, you.

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Speaker 4: Know, Saint John's.

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Speaker 3: I was surprised not only were they not in the field,

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Speaker 3: but they weren't even one of the last four in

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Speaker 3: you know what I mean. I thought it was going

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Speaker 3: to be a lot like when Alabama made it in

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Speaker 3: the College Football Playoff and like we're all human and

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Speaker 3: it's like Saban in Alabama, and I thought it was

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Speaker 3: going to be the same kind of effect with Patino

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Speaker 3: and Saint John's and the way that they looked against Yukon.

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Speaker 3: I don't know how you can watch that game and say,

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Speaker 3: like Virginia is a better team than Saint John's was right,

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Speaker 3: or some of these other teams. So I thought that

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Speaker 3: was interesting. And then the seedings for some of these games.

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Speaker 3: I mean, to have Gonzaga as a five seed I

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Speaker 3: thought was interesting, Florida as a seven, I thought they

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Speaker 3: should have been a little higher. Michigan State and Fau,

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Speaker 3: I mean put those two teams in the eight nine.

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Speaker 3: I thought some of these seedings were a little bit

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Speaker 3: off and didn't make much sense. But Saint John's was

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Speaker 3: the shocker to me. The fact that they weren't even

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Speaker 3: in the last four in I thought was surprised me.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if you saw my comments. I was like,

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Speaker 2: you know, I was disappointed because Saint John's is probably

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Speaker 2: a top twenty five team just on raw rating, but

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Speaker 2: if you look at what they've done lately, we actually

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Speaker 2: we prepare our power ratings going in. We have Saint

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Speaker 2: John's in the top fifteen. If they would have been

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Speaker 2: on the eleven line, we very well may have been

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Speaker 2: picked them to like the Elite eight depending on their draw.

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Speaker 2: This team was on a roll and they played. They

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Speaker 2: gave Yukon all they could. They gave Yukon as good

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Speaker 2: a game as anybody. I don't know how the committee

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Speaker 2: can ever say they used the eye test and put

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Speaker 2: Virginia in. If they had watched Virginia, they would have

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Speaker 2: burned the tape. I'm sorry to say that team can't.

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Speaker 2: That team is just an awful watch, so I know

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Speaker 2: they didn't do that. I was surprised. You don't need

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Speaker 2: the narratives with Patino to even put them in. You

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Speaker 2: could have justified putting that team in just based on

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Speaker 2: everything they did down the stretch.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, PJ. We kind of alluded to this, like

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Speaker 1: you mentioned it with Matt Painter and Rick Barnes, and

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Speaker 1: now we're kind of talking about with Patino. I asked

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Speaker 1: this of Jason last night also, But how do you

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Speaker 1: sort of weigh the balance between this team? Is this

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Speaker 1: level of quality this season based on the metrics, and

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Speaker 1: I tests, whatever else you're rating it on versus what

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Speaker 1: you know about these coaches and Tom Izzo in March,

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Speaker 1: and on the other end, you know Matt Painter and

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Speaker 1: Rick Barnes in March. How much are you langhing quality

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Speaker 1: of team as you determine it versus what we've seen

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Speaker 1: this coach do well.

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Speaker 3: I think coaching it weighs a ton worm, especially the

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Speaker 3: day that we're the day of age that we're in

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Speaker 3: with college basketball and nil and so much is changing

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Speaker 3: and kind of the one constant is coaching, right, And obviously,

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Speaker 3: if you're in the tournament long enough, you know you

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Speaker 3: suffer your fair share of upsets. Is thoh has lost

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Speaker 3: to a fifteen seed Middle Tennessee State, He's obviously been

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Speaker 3: to a ton of final fours. But I think that's

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Speaker 3: what a lot of people are gonna have issues with,

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Speaker 3: is these teams that are backed by great coaches that

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Speaker 3: maybe haven't watched a ton of college basketball. Like Kansas

316
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Speaker 3: isn't good, right, but a lot of people are gonna

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Speaker 3: like Kansas because they're Kansas and they have Bill self.

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Speaker 3: Michigan State isn't very good, but it's tom Izzo. So

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Speaker 3: a lot of people are gonna like them. So you

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Speaker 3: have the coaches, you also have the teams, like a

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Speaker 3: lot of people are gonna like fau San Diego State,

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Speaker 3: because these teams may deep runs and they have some

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Speaker 3: returning players, but these teams just do not profile anywhere

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Speaker 3: near what they were last season. So to answer your question,

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Speaker 3: I know that was a long winded way of answering it,

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Speaker 3: but I certainly think coaching it does. It does weigh

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Speaker 3: a lot, for sure, and some extent, but you also

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Speaker 3: have to look at these teams as well, because at

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Speaker 3: the end of the day, you know, Izzo and these

330
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Speaker 3: other guys, they're not shooting the ball, they're not playing

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Speaker 3: defense right, they could put you in certain spots. So

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Speaker 3: I think it matters to a certain extent. But a

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Speaker 3: lot of these teams, with those coaches that we like

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Speaker 3: to back, I'm down on a bunch of those teams

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Speaker 3: this year.

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Speaker 1: Jason. I'm pretty sure last night you specifically also referenced

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Speaker 1: the tom is A losing as a two seed to

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Speaker 1: a fifteen.

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Speaker 2: Many years talked about coach k if he was still around.

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Speaker 2: I mean, he's won so many titles, and then they'd

341
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Speaker 2: have games like against Lehigh, and you know, various arts games,

342
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Speaker 2: getting run by South Carolina in the second round where

343
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Speaker 2: they couldn't stop get a stop once I think in

344
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Speaker 2: the last decade, and so it happens again. I agree

345
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Speaker 2: with with some of larger points, what does this specific

346
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Speaker 2: particular team profile as if that coach has built a style.

347
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Speaker 2: Some styles work better in the tournament. And if that

348
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Speaker 2: coach has built a style that works, I think that's

349
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Speaker 2: a reason to back them if they've built kind of

350
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Speaker 2: like if they've got like the formula, but if the

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Speaker 2: team's drastically different than what they've typically had, Like the

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Speaker 2: Michigan State year they lost, they weren't very they weren't

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Speaker 2: as good on defense, they were better on offense. So

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Speaker 2: some of these things happened. I mean, so yeah, I

355
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Speaker 2: would look at I don't rule anybody out on coaching.

356
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Speaker 2: I'm probably more forgiving because maybe I can get value

357
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Speaker 2: if if the market is doing it more than I am.

358
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Speaker 1: Well, and they don't know how to win until they do,

359
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Speaker 1: you know, Tony Bennett, Jay Ray Scott, Drew.

360
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Speaker 2: Dean Smith couldn't win the Big One forever. If we

361
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Speaker 2: go back far enough, loud Olsen couldn't win until they

362
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Speaker 2: went on a run and won as a four seed.

363
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Speaker 2: So there's all sorts of coach. Jim Beheim was one

364
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Speaker 2: you mentioned, you know, I mean Jay Wright. How many

365
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Speaker 2: bad years did they have before they won two out

366
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Speaker 2: of three? They got popped like four out of five

367
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Speaker 2: years right before that, like they were a two or

368
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Speaker 2: one seed that lost in the second round. So it happens,

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Speaker 2: and I think you get values sometimes by going against

370
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Speaker 2: those narratives.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think there was a stretch where Jay Wright

372
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Speaker 1: either was out in the first weekend or made it

373
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Speaker 1: to the final four. It was never making it to

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Speaker 1: the second weekend and getting out there because he was

375
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Speaker 1: very hit or miss. But that's just you know, one

376
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Speaker 1: of the great coaches you know of the last decade.

377
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Speaker 1: So it just goes to show you that can happen

378
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Speaker 1: to anybody. I want to take a quick second to

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Speaker 1: mention our bracket optimize or build a winning March Madness

380
00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:45,800
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384
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00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:02,720
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Speaker 1: the Betting prosapp at bettingpros dot com slash Apps. Guys,

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00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:15,720
Speaker 1: let's jump into our best bets here. We got a

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Speaker 1: couple of different types of bets that I ask you

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Speaker 1: guys to prepare. We will start with just your favorite

393
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Speaker 1: first round bet overall, whatever matchup you want to pick

394
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Speaker 1: your favorite one. Jason, I'll start with you here. What's

395
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Speaker 1: your favorite first round bet?

396
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Speaker 2: I've got more how to state and last I checked,

397
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Speaker 2: this line was at twelve in a lot of places

398
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Speaker 2: that opened even higher. It started moving down last night.

399
00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:38,760
Speaker 2: And I think there's a couple of reasons why this

400
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Speaker 2: line is attractive. A lot to do with Illinois and

401
00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:47,399
Speaker 2: what they profile. As we've seen teams like Illinois struggle

402
00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:50,480
Speaker 2: relatives to the spread in the first round, and by

403
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Speaker 2: that I mean a team who's offensively skewed. They're really

404
00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:56,640
Speaker 2: good on offense, their defensive numbers aren't that great. They

405
00:18:56,680 --> 00:18:59,040
Speaker 2: don't turn people over. In fact, they're like three hundred

406
00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:01,840
Speaker 2: and sixtieth interurnal rate on defense, so they don't get

407
00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:06,160
Speaker 2: out in pressure teams and turn people over. And we've

408
00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:08,879
Speaker 2: seen Ohio State have that profile. When they lost to

409
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Speaker 2: Oral Roberts, they look very if you look at the stats,

410
00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:15,040
Speaker 2: they look identical to Ohio State from that year. Iowa

411
00:19:15,359 --> 00:19:20,040
Speaker 2: the year with Luca Garza but couldn't defend. We've seen

412
00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:21,560
Speaker 2: that out of a lot of Big tens have this

413
00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:23,920
Speaker 2: profile where they just don't turn people over and they're

414
00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:26,560
Speaker 2: better on offense and defense, and they have success in

415
00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:27,919
Speaker 2: the Big Ten tournament, and then they go in the

416
00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:31,080
Speaker 2: NCAA tournament and face a different style of team. More

417
00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:35,120
Speaker 2: Head plays slow their issues. They have tended to turn

418
00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:39,800
Speaker 2: the ball over, but that's not something Illinois exploits they

419
00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:42,560
Speaker 2: and so I think what you have is a case

420
00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:48,000
Speaker 2: where against opponent who can control tempo as an underdog,

421
00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:51,040
Speaker 2: and a team who may struggle to get stops because

422
00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:54,440
Speaker 2: their defensive profile suggests they're not going to force turnovers

423
00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:57,240
Speaker 2: and they're not great on defense. I like getting the

424
00:19:57,240 --> 00:20:00,080
Speaker 2: points here for Morehead to stay close in a in

425
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Speaker 2: the controlled pace game.

426
00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:04,119
Speaker 1: PJ. You and I have texted a lot over the

427
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Speaker 1: years about my negative view of Brad Underwood. What do

428
00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:10,280
Speaker 1: you make of this bet Morehead State plus twelve against

429
00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:11,760
Speaker 1: the aliin I.

430
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Speaker 3: I think it's a great bet. I love Morehead as well.

431
00:20:14,119 --> 00:20:17,119
Speaker 3: I'd sprinkle some money line. I think Illinois on upset alert.

432
00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:19,520
Speaker 3: I think a great stat is the winner of the

433
00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:22,000
Speaker 3: Big Ten Conference tournament has not made it out of

434
00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:25,879
Speaker 3: the first weekend since twenty nineteen. These teams struggle, you know.

435
00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:28,359
Speaker 3: I mean, we saw it with Purdue obviously last year.

436
00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:31,480
Speaker 3: We've seen it with Michigan State and that lost to

437
00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:34,280
Speaker 3: Middle Tennessee. These Big Ten teams, you know, they win

438
00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:37,400
Speaker 3: the tournament, Iowa and Keegan Murray, they get a lot

439
00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:40,119
Speaker 3: of hype around them because it's that last game that

440
00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:42,879
Speaker 3: we all see. The whole country is watching before that

441
00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:45,840
Speaker 3: selection Sunday reveal, and we know the Big Ten has

442
00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:48,359
Speaker 3: obviously struggled here in the last five or six years.

443
00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:52,040
Speaker 3: Jason brings up some great points about Morehead State. These

444
00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:56,080
Speaker 3: teams in the tournament, like Illinois, that have great offenses

445
00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:57,960
Speaker 3: in one of Go go go, when they play against

446
00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:00,119
Speaker 3: these teams like Morehead that want to slow you down.

447
00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:03,359
Speaker 3: The later that those games are close, it really favors

448
00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:06,520
Speaker 3: the underdog. So like Morehead a lot with the points,

449
00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:08,879
Speaker 3: and I take a stab with the money line as well.

450
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:10,560
Speaker 3: I certainly think they're alive in that game.

451
00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:12,040
Speaker 2: PG.

452
00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:14,400
Speaker 1: I'll stick with you. What's your favorite first round bet?

453
00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:17,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna stay in that East region. I like

454
00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:19,960
Speaker 3: Northwestern plus a two and a half against Florida Atlantic.

455
00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:21,520
Speaker 4: These eight to nine games.

456
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:24,760
Speaker 3: A lot of the times, I think people gravitate to

457
00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:27,480
Speaker 3: the name that they kind of see, and everybody's gonna

458
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:29,840
Speaker 3: see Florida Atlantic and they're gonna see them as that

459
00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:32,320
Speaker 3: team that made it to the Final four last year

460
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:35,160
Speaker 3: return all of their key players except for one guy.

461
00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:39,240
Speaker 3: But I like this matchup for Northwestern. FAU is nowhere

462
00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:42,360
Speaker 3: near the defensive team this year than they were last year.

463
00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:45,240
Speaker 3: They were a top forty thirty five defense last year,

464
00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:47,199
Speaker 3: really good on that side of the ball. They're one

465
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:51,160
Speaker 3: hundred and sixteenth this year and adjustin defense, so they

466
00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:53,560
Speaker 3: can't guard anybody. And going up against a team that

467
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:56,800
Speaker 3: plays as slow as a pace of Northwestern, that could

468
00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:58,880
Speaker 3: be one of those games where FAU is in hitting

469
00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:01,159
Speaker 3: their shots. They just lost to a Temple team that

470
00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:03,400
Speaker 3: they were favored by fourteen and a half. Again, so

471
00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:06,199
Speaker 3: I think this is a great matchup for Northwest. They

472
00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:10,480
Speaker 3: got veteran guards. Boo Booie's really good and Chris Collins

473
00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:13,399
Speaker 3: is a solid coach. I this game, to me should

474
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:15,800
Speaker 3: be more of a pick them. But because of FAU

475
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:17,920
Speaker 3: being a team that just made it to the final four,

476
00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:19,760
Speaker 3: I think that's why you're getting the bump with the

477
00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:22,280
Speaker 3: two and a half. I think the values with Northwestern,

478
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:23,560
Speaker 3: so I like them plus the points.

479
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:25,840
Speaker 5: What do you make of that one, Jason, Yeah, I

480
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:28,840
Speaker 5: mean this Northwestern team, you know, until the loss in

481
00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:33,280
Speaker 5: the Big Ten Tournament, had largely maybe looked just as

482
00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:34,959
Speaker 5: good with some of the injuries they've had.

483
00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:37,919
Speaker 2: I mean they've survived their center being out. This team's

484
00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:42,399
Speaker 2: this team's well coached and plays hard. FAU. I have

485
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:45,120
Speaker 2: concerned they had they had nearly everybody back, and they

486
00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:48,080
Speaker 2: just just the chemistry hasn't been there. When I studied

487
00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:51,200
Speaker 2: their lineup, they were best when when Boyd was out,

488
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:53,080
Speaker 2: when they actually had some people out of the mix.

489
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 2: So you wonder if there's just too many miles to

490
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:56,680
Speaker 2: feed and the chemistry isn't as great this year in

491
00:22:56,800 --> 00:23:01,159
Speaker 2: year two, and I thought that the I thought he

492
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:04,320
Speaker 2: was going to Weatherspoon Moore and not playing Boyd less

493
00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:05,760
Speaker 2: down the stretch, and then he went back to him

494
00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:08,119
Speaker 2: in the tournament. And so I don't know, because Boyd's

495
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:11,119
Speaker 2: a high usage player, they already have two good guards.

496
00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:13,680
Speaker 2: I wonder if there's just too many guards that want

497
00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:15,959
Speaker 2: the ball in their hands that it kind of just

498
00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:18,520
Speaker 2: the hole is not as good as the parts were

499
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:19,040
Speaker 2: last year.

500
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:22,920
Speaker 1: So we like Northwestern in the first round and Morehead

501
00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:26,000
Speaker 1: State at least against the spread there. Let's go to

502
00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:29,639
Speaker 1: our favorite double digit seed to make the sweet sixteen.

503
00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:32,280
Speaker 1: In PJ, I'll let you be the one to share

504
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:34,159
Speaker 1: your pick, but I have to say you had a

505
00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:36,639
Speaker 1: lot of people going along with you here in the

506
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:39,480
Speaker 1: chat last night drug our live stream who were very

507
00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:40,320
Speaker 1: in on this pick.

508
00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:42,719
Speaker 3: So, guys, a lot of times what I like to

509
00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:44,760
Speaker 3: do when we get to the NCAA tournament. One of

510
00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:47,399
Speaker 3: my favorite trends is over the last twenty years, teams

511
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:50,280
Speaker 3: that are top ten in offense according to Ken Palm

512
00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:53,400
Speaker 3: and one hundred or worse in defense have not made

513
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:55,880
Speaker 3: it to the sweet sixteen in the last twenty years.

514
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:57,960
Speaker 3: We have two teams that fit that this year in

515
00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:02,000
Speaker 3: Kentucky and Alabama. So immediately go and I look at

516
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:04,720
Speaker 3: who's gonna be the double digit seed that's kind of

517
00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 3: playing with those two teams, And I'm looking at that

518
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:11,840
Speaker 3: Kentucky right, little mini regional and then potentially getting the

519
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 3: winner of Texas Tech or NC State, And I like

520
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:17,240
Speaker 3: riding the hot hand of this NC State team obviously

521
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:20,120
Speaker 3: winning five games in five days. I don't really think

522
00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:22,560
Speaker 3: Texas Tech is that strong of a sixth seed. Grant

523
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:25,920
Speaker 3: mcchasm has done a great job in year one. They

524
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:29,280
Speaker 3: certainly were benefactors. Are just playing in a really deep

525
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:32,760
Speaker 3: Big twelve league and getting some good wins on their resume.

526
00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 3: But I think that's a good matchup for NC State

527
00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:37,680
Speaker 3: and then just going with that trend, right, if they

528
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:41,000
Speaker 3: get Kentucky, you gotta like NC State in that game.

529
00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:43,760
Speaker 3: So it's not so much about the wolf Pack being

530
00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:46,800
Speaker 3: necessarily the double digit seed. I like the best. It's

531
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 3: just I like their path a lot, and I think

532
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:51,960
Speaker 3: you're gonna get good value. So I'm on the wolf

533
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 3: Pack if you're looking for a double digit seed to

534
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:54,440
Speaker 3: make the Sweet sixteen.

535
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:58,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, and NC State's so interesting because I mean I

536
00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:01,560
Speaker 1: was looking at their know, their most recent schedule. Obviously,

537
00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:04,840
Speaker 1: you in five games in five days ACC tournament, you know,

538
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:08,679
Speaker 1: everybody very you know, excited about that, and see what

539
00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:11,040
Speaker 1: happened there. But like they lost their last four games

540
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:14,280
Speaker 1: before the conference tournament, I think seven of their last nine,

541
00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 1: and so it's not like they were like, oh, figuring

542
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:18,920
Speaker 1: out as the season got odd and getting better. They

543
00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:21,199
Speaker 1: just got hot at the right time, which sometimes it

544
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:23,400
Speaker 1: all is all it takes, and it's you know, it's

545
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:26,800
Speaker 1: a fun Cinderella run. You know already before the tournament's

546
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:29,800
Speaker 1: even tipped off, Jason, and you have a different pick,

547
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:31,280
Speaker 1: But what do you make of the NC State pick?

548
00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:34,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I'll say a couple of things there. Regardless

549
00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:37,680
Speaker 2: at the end they did they did have dj Horn

550
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:41,920
Speaker 2: missed part of their season finale, and when Horn's completely

551
00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:44,920
Speaker 2: healthy and when Dara is in the starting lineup, which

552
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:47,520
Speaker 2: happened they made that switch, they have been about two

553
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:49,960
Speaker 2: or three points better than their season long performance. So

554
00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:51,960
Speaker 2: this is a team when you look at their run

555
00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:55,480
Speaker 2: and it kind of started early, even the wins didn't.

556
00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:57,359
Speaker 2: I think this is a team where there is a

557
00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:00,679
Speaker 2: legitimate change due to the line up there now if

558
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:05,880
Speaker 2: they're fully healthy. Tech I think has played decently recently

559
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:08,920
Speaker 2: with a smaller lineup with with their center out. There's

560
00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:11,520
Speaker 2: seven foot or warre in Washington, But how will that

561
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:17,639
Speaker 2: work against Horn's kind of bully ball That concerns me

562
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 2: for Tech. If I don't know Washington status as we talk,

563
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:23,440
Speaker 2: I'm not sure he hadn't played in like three or

564
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:28,640
Speaker 2: four weeks. You often get value, We've seen it recently

565
00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 2: with ACC teams, with PAC twelve teams. The teams that

566
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:35,200
Speaker 2: are not playing that are from a conference that didn't

567
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:38,000
Speaker 2: get eight bids, that didn't get seven eight bids, and

568
00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 2: greatness by association, I think you reference that they got

569
00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:43,720
Speaker 2: lots of opportunities. Well that's not NC State's case, that's

570
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:46,680
Speaker 2: not the case with like the PAC twelve teams like Oregon,

571
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:51,120
Speaker 2: and so sometimes maybe they're power ratings based on things

572
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:54,159
Speaker 2: that happened November when maybe their conference was young and

573
00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:58,120
Speaker 2: inexperienced and didn't public results. So power ratings are kind

574
00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:01,160
Speaker 2: of like gray areas. But if you can identify where

575
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:05,240
Speaker 2: there's weaknesses, like they're overvalue and underfiling a conference in general,

576
00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:07,720
Speaker 2: and so we're just high on that team. That could

577
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 2: be the case because I think we've seen these a

578
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:12,960
Speaker 2: lot of these eleven seeds ten seeds come from conferences

579
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:16,480
Speaker 2: that weren't like the first and second rateed conference. Because

580
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:18,760
Speaker 2: my philosophy on that is, if you were eighth in

581
00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:21,440
Speaker 2: those conferences, we know you're not actually that great. We're

582
00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:24,159
Speaker 2: not sure about the teams that make the run out

583
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:25,800
Speaker 2: of the conferences that don't have the hype.

584
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 1: Who's your Jason double digit seed?

585
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:32,520
Speaker 2: To make my double digit seed, I put down I

586
00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:34,119
Speaker 2: had a couple I could go to, but I'm going

587
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:36,479
Speaker 2: to go Colorado. I could go west, I could go

588
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 2: south to New Mexico from there, but I'm going to

589
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:41,720
Speaker 2: go Colorado. I think that's one to watch. Obviously, I

590
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:43,440
Speaker 2: don't know as I say this whether they're going to

591
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 2: be even playing in the first round because they're in

592
00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:49,840
Speaker 2: the play in game against Boise, But I think they

593
00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:53,080
Speaker 2: profile as a team that to watch if they win

594
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:56,159
Speaker 2: that game, and I think their favor and you know,

595
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:59,240
Speaker 2: it's one of those situations, you know, where they could

596
00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:01,960
Speaker 2: make a run out of that. If they they aren't,

597
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 2: they're better than their seed. Same situation as in C State,

598
00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:08,520
Speaker 2: the PAC twelve they didn't have opportunities for these quote

599
00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:11,680
Speaker 2: quad one wins. They lost twice to Arizona. They got

600
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 2: seated down relative to I think their true quality based

601
00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:19,479
Speaker 2: on their quote resume. But I think Colorado is a

602
00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:22,040
Speaker 2: much better than a than you know, a ten seed

603
00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:25,679
Speaker 2: in a play in game type team. They're virtually unpicked

604
00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:28,000
Speaker 2: in bracket pools, so that if you want to play

605
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:31,240
Speaker 2: it that way instead, they're one of those long shot picks.

606
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:35,960
Speaker 2: But I like Colorado to get hot here. I think

607
00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 2: they ran against a buzzsaw against Oregon after getting in

608
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:40,520
Speaker 2: the tournament. I think they did enough to get in

609
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:43,240
Speaker 2: and then Oregon blitzed them. But I think this this

610
00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:44,520
Speaker 2: Colorado team is legit.

611
00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:47,880
Speaker 1: I should have looked this up ahead of time. PJ.

612
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:50,120
Speaker 1: Do you know what's the stat that, like, you know,

613
00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:53,480
Speaker 1: a team that wins in the first four, Like, is

614
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 1: it that they always win at least there one first

615
00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:58,480
Speaker 1: game or there's one that makes me there's some stat

616
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 1: about that right most like.

617
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:01,040
Speaker 4: The first game.

618
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 3: It's also like they make Sweet sixteen as well. And

619
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:06,920
Speaker 3: obviously VCU and UCLA made the final four out of

620
00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:09,720
Speaker 3: the out of the first four as well, So I

621
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:13,800
Speaker 3: think Colorado's is a great pick, you know. They I'm

622
00:29:13,800 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 3: glad that the committee put them in, even though they

623
00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 3: lost to Oregon in the PAC twelve Championship. Team with

624
00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:24,320
Speaker 3: really good guards, athletic bigs. Of the teams in the

625
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:27,280
Speaker 3: first four that I think could be the most dangerous, certainly,

626
00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:30,000
Speaker 3: I think Colorado, of all the teams is by far

627
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:32,760
Speaker 3: the choice, and I think that's gonna be a hell

628
00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:35,200
Speaker 3: of a matchup for Marquette, whoever they get, whether it's

629
00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:38,120
Speaker 3: Florida or Colorado. Like Jason and I both think it's

630
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 3: gonna be a really tough game for them, and I

631
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 3: think the winner of that Florida Colorado game has has

632
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:46,440
Speaker 3: a chance in the bottom side of that bracket to

633
00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:48,320
Speaker 3: make potentially an Elite eight run.

634
00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:51,800
Speaker 1: Jason, let's stick with you for the next category, which

635
00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 1: is favorite long shot bet to make the final four,

636
00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:56,400
Speaker 1: Because you threw out a couple of different options here,

637
00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:57,880
Speaker 1: and you can run through all of them if you'd like,

638
00:29:57,920 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 1: but one of them was as the longest shot option

639
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:01,480
Speaker 1: in Colorado.

640
00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:06,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, Colorado obviously a long shot, plus thre not popular

641
00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:09,160
Speaker 2: and we don't know if they're going to be playing,

642
00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 2: so you've got to get through not three, you get

643
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:14,840
Speaker 2: got to get five wins, all right, instead of four,

644
00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 2: So there on the list. I other long shot would

645
00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:21,240
Speaker 2: be A and M. And I say that for this reason,

646
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 2: not knowing if they can beat Nebraska. But that's why

647
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:26,040
Speaker 2: they're a long shot, right They're they're in an eight

648
00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:31,760
Speaker 2: nine game. Houston has injury impacted, maybe so Juwan Roberts

649
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:34,959
Speaker 2: is a question mark that creates you don't like variance

650
00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:37,320
Speaker 2: when you're the favorite, like the fact that we don't

651
00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:41,680
Speaker 2: know how how what percentile he'll be at by Sunday

652
00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:44,840
Speaker 2: is a is a question mark that I think provides value.

653
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:48,560
Speaker 2: This A and M team made a legitimate lineup change,

654
00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:52,400
Speaker 2: like a philosophical shift right with went to a three

655
00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 2: guard lineup, and Obiseki has changed that teams. This team

656
00:30:57,360 --> 00:31:00,000
Speaker 2: was struggling to score sixty for most of us He's

657
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:04,040
Speaker 2: they were in rock fights, and by going to a

658
00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:07,760
Speaker 2: third guard who can shoot along with their two star guards,

659
00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:11,480
Speaker 2: they've unlocked it. I mean, they scored over ninety against Kentucky.

660
00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:15,000
Speaker 2: They were beating you know, Florida for most of the game,

661
00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:17,640
Speaker 2: had a huge lead. Then they got in foul trouble.

662
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:21,400
Speaker 2: Florida came back, Obuseki fouled out Florida ran past him

663
00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 2: at the end. But this A and M team is

664
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:25,760
Speaker 2: a completely different team than the one we've seen on

665
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:27,960
Speaker 2: the court most of the year, and I'm willing in

666
00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 2: tournament settings to buy short term changes if there's a

667
00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:34,200
Speaker 2: reason for it, and there was a legitimate lineup reason

668
00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:36,840
Speaker 2: for why they've changed PG.

669
00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:40,600
Speaker 3: Any thoughts on that, Yeah, I mean, I think it's

670
00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:42,560
Speaker 3: a lot of it's a lot of good points.

671
00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:44,120
Speaker 4: I didn't do.

672
00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:47,640
Speaker 3: I didn't do anything with that team or really that

673
00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:50,720
Speaker 3: region either. I kind of just stayed away a little

674
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:53,760
Speaker 3: bit from Houston and kind of that top half of

675
00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:56,480
Speaker 3: the bracket brings up good points. I mean, Roberts is

676
00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:57,560
Speaker 3: a key part of that team.

677
00:31:57,640 --> 00:32:00,440
Speaker 4: Houston. I a big part of their offense is the

678
00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:01,720
Speaker 4: offensive glass. Right.

679
00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:04,880
Speaker 3: They really aren't a great shooting team, and they rely

680
00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:09,000
Speaker 3: a lot on their second and third chance opportunities. So Houston,

681
00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:12,840
Speaker 3: you know, I personally think that they could go far

682
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 3: in this tournament, just because I think there are so

683
00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:17,320
Speaker 3: many great teams on the other side of the bracket

684
00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:20,200
Speaker 3: that it does set up well for them. But I

685
00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:22,760
Speaker 3: just I have my questions with with Houston, you know,

686
00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:25,200
Speaker 3: it just it feels like the same team to me

687
00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:28,200
Speaker 3: this year than it has in years past, right on

688
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:31,880
Speaker 3: a sheet of paper. The metrics, they all love them,

689
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:34,040
Speaker 3: but it feels like, you know, they go up against

690
00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 3: these offensive, juggernaut type teams. Can Houston win a game

691
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:39,680
Speaker 3: in the eighties? Can they win a game in the nineties.

692
00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:41,560
Speaker 3: Can they win that game that you con did against

693
00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:44,480
Speaker 3: Sint John's the other night ninety five ninety I don't

694
00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:47,800
Speaker 3: know if they can. So that's that's my issue with Houston,

695
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:50,880
Speaker 3: and certainly this Roberts injury is a big, big concern

696
00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 3: as well.

697
00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:52,760
Speaker 2: PJ.

698
00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:54,720
Speaker 1: I'll stick with you. Who's your long shot bet for

699
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:55,320
Speaker 1: the final four?

700
00:32:56,080 --> 00:32:56,760
Speaker 4: Final four?

701
00:32:56,920 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 3: I went with Oregon fifty to one to make the

702
00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:02,400
Speaker 3: final four or out of the Midwest. We talk about

703
00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:04,560
Speaker 3: all these great tournament coaches we were talking about a

704
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:07,160
Speaker 3: little bit earlier, right, I mean, tom Izzo is certainly

705
00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:09,120
Speaker 3: one of the ones that comes to mind. We don't

706
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:12,520
Speaker 3: give Dana Altman enough love. And Oregon hasn't been in

707
00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 3: the tournament the last couple of years. Guys, He's never

708
00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:17,600
Speaker 3: lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament. He

709
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:21,320
Speaker 3: is fifteen and six against the spread in the NCAA Tournament.

710
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 3: The best record of any active coach. And there are

711
00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:27,160
Speaker 3: certain coaches and certain programs that are built for the

712
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:30,920
Speaker 3: regular season, and there are certain coaches who build their

713
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:32,360
Speaker 3: teams for March.

714
00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:32,720
Speaker 4: Right.

715
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:35,680
Speaker 3: That was Beheim's thing for so long with the zone.

716
00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:38,480
Speaker 3: He knew regular season, fine, when we get into the

717
00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:40,880
Speaker 3: tournament and teams have to prepare for that zone that

718
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:43,160
Speaker 3: don't see it at any point, that's going to be

719
00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:45,640
Speaker 3: a big advantage for us, the way that he builds

720
00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:49,000
Speaker 3: his teams with these athletic bigs. Now that Nefali Dante

721
00:33:49,120 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 3: is healthy, one of the best big men in the country.

722
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 3: Kuznard's a really good guard that doesn't get talked about enough.

723
00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:57,560
Speaker 3: Organ's been a team that's been dealing with injuries all year.

724
00:33:57,600 --> 00:34:00,920
Speaker 3: They're finally healthy. And I think this bottom side of

725
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 3: the region creating is a team that I think a

726
00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 3: lot of people are gonna like Tennessee as well. I

727
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:08,000
Speaker 3: think it would be a good path for Oregon. And

728
00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:10,040
Speaker 3: you know what, guys, it's the final year of the

729
00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:12,480
Speaker 3: Pac twelve, right, so let's let's get crazy, let's have

730
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:14,399
Speaker 3: some fun. Maybe one of these teams make a deep

731
00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:16,879
Speaker 3: run for the conference. I think Oregon could be that team.

732
00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, he better get it done now before he becomes

733
00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:21,239
Speaker 2: a member of the Big ten and then his ability to.

734
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:24,400
Speaker 1: Win that year. It's a great.

735
00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:30,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, like altman like great point about like how many

736
00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 2: there's I don't know if there's many coaches in the

737
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:34,920
Speaker 2: country who've had what he's had, which is he has

738
00:34:34,960 --> 00:34:38,160
Speaker 2: made adjustments late in the year on several occasions on

739
00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:41,279
Speaker 2: teams that were struggling and got them to get on

740
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:44,040
Speaker 2: surges win the Pac twelve. They did it in nineteen.

741
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:47,480
Speaker 2: They went in as a twelve seed and were dominant

742
00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:49,799
Speaker 2: down the stretch and won the Pac twelve and then

743
00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:53,239
Speaker 2: went to the Sweet sixteen beat Wisconsin. They did it

744
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:56,280
Speaker 2: in twenty one, got in as a seventh seed in Roalled, Iowa,

745
00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:58,760
Speaker 2: and they went in as a twelve I think earlier

746
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:00,480
Speaker 2: like a decade ago, where they went on or run

747
00:35:01,160 --> 00:35:03,719
Speaker 2: in all different ways, and this one is different too.

748
00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:06,560
Speaker 2: He's had to adapt to a team that basically got

749
00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:09,800
Speaker 2: destroyed by injuries, and it took them a while to

750
00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:12,840
Speaker 2: figure it out. But now they basically like we're relying

751
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:17,239
Speaker 2: on our two stars in our freshman shooter and that's it,

752
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:19,640
Speaker 2: and everybody else is a role player. And they've increased

753
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:24,920
Speaker 2: their usage. Dante is dominating and if that continues, like

754
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:27,879
Speaker 2: if that can I mean go look at the box

755
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:30,880
Speaker 2: scores from like the last five games for Infali Dante.

756
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:34,800
Speaker 2: It is ridiculous what this guy has done down the stretch.

757
00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:39,520
Speaker 2: Like good for him. Fifth year senior has battled injuries.

758
00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:43,080
Speaker 2: But man, you know, can they ride that? They don't

759
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:45,799
Speaker 2: have much depth? Can they ride that for four games?

760
00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:48,880
Speaker 2: I don't know, but there's reasons to believe. Again they

761
00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:49,520
Speaker 2: found something.

762
00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:53,800
Speaker 1: It sounds like we're barreling towards an All pac twelve

763
00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:56,680
Speaker 1: right side of the final four Colorado Oregon. We sad

764
00:35:56,800 --> 00:35:57,319
Speaker 1: enough for that?

765
00:35:57,600 --> 00:35:59,359
Speaker 2: Oh absolutely, Bill won't.

766
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 4: No, I'm just kidding.

767
00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:05,840
Speaker 1: Please, I wish I wish dive into March Madness with

768
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:09,440
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty four NCAA Tournament Picks Challenge. Join our

769
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:11,400
Speaker 1: contest and the Betting Pros app for a shot at

770
00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:15,480
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771
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:19,200
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772
00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:22,759
Speaker 1: to yearly subscriptions. For the top five in ROI just

773
00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:25,960
Speaker 1: submit a minimum of ten college basketball bets during the

774
00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:29,120
Speaker 1: tournament to enter. That's a minimum of ten get started

775
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:32,440
Speaker 1: at bettingpros dot com, slash NCAA or on the Betting

776
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:36,520
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777
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:39,319
Speaker 1: premium subscription. That sounds pretty good. Let's go to our

778
00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:41,759
Speaker 1: favorite long shot bet to win at all and not

779
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:43,759
Speaker 1: just to make the final four. PJ. I'll start with

780
00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:44,120
Speaker 1: you here.

781
00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:46,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, this was a tough question.

782
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:49,840
Speaker 3: I mean, certain years, right, Yukon was certainly a team

783
00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:51,800
Speaker 3: that you could have gotten great odds before the tournament

784
00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:54,120
Speaker 3: started last year to make a deep run BAM in

785
00:36:54,200 --> 00:36:58,000
Speaker 3: Houston and Purdue or towards the top of the favorites there.

786
00:36:58,320 --> 00:37:00,680
Speaker 3: I think this year, if I'm looking at a long shot,

787
00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:03,160
Speaker 3: I'm gonna be honest with you guys, there really aren't

788
00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:07,040
Speaker 3: many teams that I would like. I would say, really,

789
00:37:07,080 --> 00:37:09,040
Speaker 3: when you look at all the criterias this year, there

790
00:37:09,040 --> 00:37:11,200
Speaker 3: are really only six or seven teams they could win

791
00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:14,080
Speaker 3: the national championship. And the one team that kind of

792
00:37:14,120 --> 00:37:17,879
Speaker 3: fits every category that I think could potentially be worth

793
00:37:17,880 --> 00:37:20,600
Speaker 3: the sprinkle as Marquette at twenty five to one. I

794
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:22,759
Speaker 3: know Jason and I were just talking about Colorado and

795
00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:25,239
Speaker 3: Florida potentially being a really tough second round game for

796
00:37:25,280 --> 00:37:28,480
Speaker 3: them much like Houston though with Roberts. What's going on

797
00:37:28,520 --> 00:37:30,880
Speaker 3: with Colic and Marquette, right, And this was a team

798
00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:33,400
Speaker 3: that had a lot of expectations going to the tournament

799
00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:35,920
Speaker 3: last year. Colick was not good. He was he had

800
00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:38,520
Speaker 3: a hand injury going to that game. They went home.

801
00:37:38,880 --> 00:37:41,280
Speaker 3: We know guards winning March and you're not gonna find

802
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:45,000
Speaker 3: many better backcourts than Colic and cam Jones. For Marquette,

803
00:37:45,040 --> 00:37:47,600
Speaker 3: they certainly could be a difficult matchups for teams with

804
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:50,720
Speaker 3: Igadar being so athletic and they kind of play five

805
00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:53,759
Speaker 3: out at times on offense. I like the makeup of

806
00:37:53,800 --> 00:37:56,440
Speaker 3: their team. Shock has been another one of those coaches that,

807
00:37:56,520 --> 00:37:59,640
Speaker 3: outside of that run with VCU, he's really struggled in

808
00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:02,680
Speaker 3: the turn tournament. But we talk about all these top seeds, right,

809
00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:05,239
Speaker 3: all these ones and twos, it feels like the team

810
00:38:05,239 --> 00:38:09,040
Speaker 3: that absolutely no one is talking about is Marquette as

811
00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:12,160
Speaker 3: a two seed and if Colic is healthy. I mean,

812
00:38:12,160 --> 00:38:15,080
Speaker 3: they've played Yukon three times this year, Like they're not

813
00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:18,120
Speaker 3: going to face any team in this tournament better than

814
00:38:18,200 --> 00:38:20,880
Speaker 3: that team, and they've played them three times, They played Perdue,

815
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:24,840
Speaker 3: They've played Tennessee. They're more than battle tested. Colic is

816
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:27,160
Speaker 3: the big concern, but I feel like part of that

817
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:30,440
Speaker 3: price is because of the uncertainty around him. So if

818
00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:33,000
Speaker 3: you're looking for a long shot, I think Marquette would

819
00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:34,520
Speaker 3: probably be my pick at twenty five to one.

820
00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:38,200
Speaker 1: What do you make of Marquette, Jason, I mean I

821
00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:38,400
Speaker 1: like it.

822
00:38:38,440 --> 00:38:40,879
Speaker 2: I know I mentioned Colorado, same region, but we can

823
00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:43,799
Speaker 2: understand that there's with these long shots, what you're looking

824
00:38:44,120 --> 00:38:47,480
Speaker 2: are for high variance factors, right, You're looking for You're

825
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:50,040
Speaker 2: not looking for the median outcome. You're like, what's the

826
00:38:50,080 --> 00:38:53,080
Speaker 2: best case? Does this team have the ability? And the

827
00:38:53,120 --> 00:38:56,920
Speaker 2: Colic thing creates uncertainty both ways. I think it creates

828
00:38:57,000 --> 00:39:00,399
Speaker 2: value though for them to make a run they can

829
00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:03,000
Speaker 2: if they can survive early. I've been impressed with what

830
00:39:03,040 --> 00:39:05,759
Speaker 2: they did without them, honestly for the most part, until

831
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:07,799
Speaker 2: they ran into Yukon. Who's just a buzzaw on. If

832
00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:09,560
Speaker 2: they're not a one hundred percent, they aren't beat in Yukon.

833
00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:12,879
Speaker 2: But you know, this is a good team. This isn't

834
00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:15,160
Speaker 2: just a Colic team. This is this is a legit,

835
00:39:15,360 --> 00:39:18,279
Speaker 2: really good team. They're super undervalued in brackets. I know

836
00:39:18,320 --> 00:39:19,920
Speaker 2: we didn't have the data last night. I'll tell you

837
00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:22,720
Speaker 2: they're they're they're being picked at about half their chances

838
00:39:22,719 --> 00:39:26,239
Speaker 2: of winning. In the market, they're only like two percent pick.

839
00:39:26,480 --> 00:39:27,800
Speaker 2: So if you want to play them in a bracket

840
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:30,440
Speaker 2: rather than buy an NCAA future, you can probably get

841
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:33,439
Speaker 2: better odds, better pot odds. Just put a Marquete winner

842
00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:36,040
Speaker 2: in a bracket and trust that no one else will

843
00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:39,719
Speaker 2: have them in your two hundred percent pool. So, I mean,

844
00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:42,520
Speaker 2: I think there's some interesting things about Marquette. I think

845
00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:46,040
Speaker 2: they have the balance. They are better than their raw

846
00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:49,200
Speaker 2: numbers because not only has Colic been out, Stevie Mitchell's out,

847
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:51,840
Speaker 2: they've had if you exclude the games where they warranted

848
00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:54,359
Speaker 2: one hundred percent, they're even better. They're probably a top

849
00:39:54,400 --> 00:39:57,840
Speaker 2: five team. And when I say that, there's like a

850
00:39:57,840 --> 00:39:59,719
Speaker 2: bunch of teams that are close, but they're basically in

851
00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:03,239
Speaker 2: that right behind the top seeds, very close to them

852
00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:06,000
Speaker 2: where they can certainly win on a neutral court against them,

853
00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:08,600
Speaker 2: and you could see this team winning a title. It's

854
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:09,480
Speaker 2: not out of the question.

855
00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:12,680
Speaker 1: Jason, who's your long shot bet?

856
00:40:13,160 --> 00:40:16,359
Speaker 2: Yeah? So, I mean I'm gonna say that I will

857
00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:19,600
Speaker 2: not take Arizona. I'll go even longer than Arizona. I

858
00:40:19,640 --> 00:40:22,200
Speaker 2: did have them down as you know that team again

859
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:26,840
Speaker 2: Tommy Lloyd's lost twice early and I do think that

860
00:40:26,920 --> 00:40:29,440
Speaker 2: they could do it, but again they do scare me.

861
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:32,879
Speaker 2: It's another high variant situation with Arizona. I'm gonna go Duke,

862
00:40:33,040 --> 00:40:36,080
Speaker 2: and I know this is maybe a little crazy. You're

863
00:40:36,080 --> 00:40:38,239
Speaker 2: going to hear the people say no team has won

864
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:40,879
Speaker 2: a title who didn't play in their semi You've heard

865
00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:43,680
Speaker 2: all these talking points. We ran the data. I mean

866
00:40:44,360 --> 00:40:47,000
Speaker 2: a most top contenders don't lose in the quarterfinals, so

867
00:40:47,080 --> 00:40:49,600
Speaker 2: it's a small sample size. But when I actually looked

868
00:40:49,600 --> 00:40:53,920
Speaker 2: at our expected wins that they perform about like other teams,

869
00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:57,000
Speaker 2: the deal is most of them aren't good enough, and

870
00:40:57,080 --> 00:40:59,680
Speaker 2: so I think this Duke team is balanced. I am

871
00:41:00,040 --> 00:41:02,240
Speaker 2: learn about how they finished, but that's accounted for in

872
00:41:02,040 --> 00:41:04,600
Speaker 2: the in the in the ratings, they would have been

873
00:41:04,600 --> 00:41:07,760
Speaker 2: a shorter price two weeks ago. If they had finished

874
00:41:07,760 --> 00:41:10,080
Speaker 2: strong and been on the three seed line, they would

875
00:41:10,080 --> 00:41:13,640
Speaker 2: be a shorter price. And so I'm willing to trust

876
00:41:13,640 --> 00:41:17,200
Speaker 2: that they mean they're They're not deep, but they are

877
00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:21,239
Speaker 2: a balanced roster with size and if they get the

878
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:24,919
Speaker 2: right combination of outcomes, if some of the other high

879
00:41:24,960 --> 00:41:27,520
Speaker 2: seeds on their side of the bracket or impacted let's

880
00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:31,239
Speaker 2: say by injuries or they don't advance. You know, this

881
00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:34,560
Speaker 2: Duke team is balanced enough to I think, exploit that

882
00:41:34,760 --> 00:41:35,640
Speaker 2: and make a deep run.

883
00:41:36,360 --> 00:41:39,360
Speaker 1: We are really diving deep into the South region. We've

884
00:41:39,440 --> 00:41:43,560
Speaker 1: hit on Houston were now Duke NC State. We talked

885
00:41:43,560 --> 00:41:47,879
Speaker 1: like Kentucky over valued a little Florida, Colorado Marquette. We're

886
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:50,880
Speaker 1: really really given the South region. It's due for sure.

887
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:54,319
Speaker 1: Let's go to the worst value bet to win it all.

888
00:41:54,320 --> 00:41:56,040
Speaker 1: And Jason, I'll start with you because we've already talked

889
00:41:56,040 --> 00:41:57,160
Speaker 1: a little bit about your pick.

890
00:41:58,080 --> 00:42:00,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, I had Houston down and that's kind of we

891
00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:03,720
Speaker 2: talked about him on kind of the A and M future.

892
00:42:03,800 --> 00:42:06,880
Speaker 2: But Houston at plus five hundred, I mean, they power

893
00:42:06,960 --> 00:42:10,040
Speaker 2: rate in the top. If you look at just like

894
00:42:10,120 --> 00:42:12,960
Speaker 2: Ken Palmer just raw power rings, they're gonna be right

895
00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:14,440
Speaker 2: there with Yukon. They're gonna be right there with the

896
00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:17,879
Speaker 2: other teams. You got the Roberts injury, and not only

897
00:42:17,880 --> 00:42:20,719
Speaker 2: the Roberts injury, it's that they've lost Tuggler and they

898
00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:23,680
Speaker 2: aren't deep at the position he plays now and so

899
00:42:23,719 --> 00:42:26,240
Speaker 2: he's a very important player on a team that doesn't

900
00:42:26,239 --> 00:42:29,919
Speaker 2: have a lot of size. If he's out and he's

901
00:42:29,960 --> 00:42:32,919
Speaker 2: like their junkyard dog, that really helps drive that team

902
00:42:32,960 --> 00:42:37,600
Speaker 2: from the inside. And so there are concerns there. There

903
00:42:37,640 --> 00:42:40,799
Speaker 2: are concerns. We've seen this team have shooting issues when

904
00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:43,319
Speaker 2: and when you look at their offensive numbers, the one

905
00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:47,239
Speaker 2: deficiency is they have some bad shooting games. They need

906
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:50,520
Speaker 2: to get on the glass and all that stuff. How

907
00:42:50,560 --> 00:42:56,520
Speaker 2: will that play against teams that can you know, are elite.

908
00:42:57,000 --> 00:43:00,000
Speaker 2: They haven't. I think their numbers are a little inflated.

909
00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:03,279
Speaker 2: They blew out some cupcakes. They certainly were good enough

910
00:43:03,320 --> 00:43:05,719
Speaker 2: to win the Big Twelve, but I'm not sure that

911
00:43:05,840 --> 00:43:08,600
Speaker 2: number is reflective where they are now. And we just

912
00:43:08,600 --> 00:43:12,120
Speaker 2: saw them struggle against Iowa State with Roberts hurt and

913
00:43:12,160 --> 00:43:14,680
Speaker 2: with a game where they struggled against a really good defense.

914
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:19,520
Speaker 2: I have concerns about Houston. I think from a value perspective,

915
00:43:20,239 --> 00:43:22,120
Speaker 2: I think there is a gap between them and Yukon

916
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:26,080
Speaker 2: right now with the injury concerns, and they're close in price,

917
00:43:26,480 --> 00:43:28,480
Speaker 2: and there's a big gap between Houston and everybody else,

918
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:30,520
Speaker 2: and I think some of those other teams can get

919
00:43:30,520 --> 00:43:31,200
Speaker 2: closer to them.

920
00:43:32,239 --> 00:43:34,279
Speaker 1: PJ. I'm not going to ask you how Houston, because

921
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:36,799
Speaker 1: you kind already hit on them already. Who is your

922
00:43:36,880 --> 00:43:37,439
Speaker 1: worst value?

923
00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:41,040
Speaker 3: Beck, Yeah, it's Purdue at plus six point fifty. And

924
00:43:41,400 --> 00:43:44,200
Speaker 3: the reason for me is just the fact that I

925
00:43:44,239 --> 00:43:46,919
Speaker 3: think Yukon is kind of in a tier of its own,

926
00:43:47,000 --> 00:43:49,160
Speaker 3: which Jason and I we've kind of alluded to right

927
00:43:49,239 --> 00:43:52,560
Speaker 3: in this podcast. And even though maybe the metrics say

928
00:43:52,560 --> 00:43:55,200
Speaker 3: that Perdue and Houston should be on that level, it's

929
00:43:55,239 --> 00:43:57,560
Speaker 3: like Yukon, they're the team that we trust. We've seen

930
00:43:57,600 --> 00:43:59,960
Speaker 3: them do it. Houston and Purdue we haven't seen them

931
00:44:00,160 --> 00:44:03,240
Speaker 3: do it yet. So if there was better value on Perdue,

932
00:44:03,280 --> 00:44:05,799
Speaker 3: then maybe you could get involved. Right if you were

933
00:44:05,800 --> 00:44:07,440
Speaker 3: getting like a ten to one, eleven to one, if

934
00:44:07,440 --> 00:44:09,879
Speaker 3: they were in the Arizona North Carolina range, you could

935
00:44:09,920 --> 00:44:13,720
Speaker 3: potentially talk yourself into that bet. But for a team

936
00:44:13,960 --> 00:44:16,120
Speaker 3: that is trying, that has never been to the Final

937
00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:19,080
Speaker 3: four and never won a national championship, obviously they're gonna

938
00:44:19,120 --> 00:44:22,640
Speaker 3: draw all the parallels to Virginia. I think people forget

939
00:44:22,680 --> 00:44:25,319
Speaker 3: like how much had to go right for Virginia to

940
00:44:25,360 --> 00:44:28,799
Speaker 3: win that national championship. Right they played Perdue, you had

941
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:31,000
Speaker 3: that free throw that was tipped all the way out.

942
00:44:31,080 --> 00:44:32,520
Speaker 4: Diabade beats the buzzer.

943
00:44:32,800 --> 00:44:35,479
Speaker 3: They had the game against Auburn in the Final four

944
00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:38,040
Speaker 3: where Kyle Guy was fouled on a three Hunter hit

945
00:44:38,080 --> 00:44:40,719
Speaker 3: a three pointer with twenty seconds left in the championship game.

946
00:44:40,840 --> 00:44:43,040
Speaker 3: It was one of those Team of Destiny runs right,

947
00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:45,920
Speaker 3: and it's like, if you're banking on that for a

948
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:49,080
Speaker 3: plus six point fifty, that's just something I really don't

949
00:44:49,120 --> 00:44:50,160
Speaker 3: want to get involved with.

950
00:44:50,239 --> 00:44:50,359
Speaker 1: Now.

951
00:44:50,360 --> 00:44:52,480
Speaker 3: If Perdue wins the whole thing, nobody would be shocked.

952
00:44:52,520 --> 00:44:54,360
Speaker 3: They have the best player in the sport, they have

953
00:44:54,400 --> 00:44:56,720
Speaker 3: the talent to do so, they're a number one seed

954
00:44:57,040 --> 00:44:59,759
Speaker 3: and you know, metrics wise, they fit everything you're looking

955
00:44:59,800 --> 00:45:02,360
Speaker 3: for of a champion. I just can't back a team

956
00:45:02,600 --> 00:45:05,239
Speaker 3: that's never been in that spot at that price, and

957
00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:08,560
Speaker 3: you know, again, a coach that has not had success

958
00:45:08,840 --> 00:45:10,120
Speaker 3: and been to the mountain top before.

959
00:45:11,040 --> 00:45:14,120
Speaker 1: I think you mentioned that Elite eight game Virginia Perdue

960
00:45:14,120 --> 00:45:17,480
Speaker 1: the year Virginia, I think that Carson Edwards performance is

961
00:45:17,480 --> 00:45:20,800
Speaker 1: the best individual performance I've ever seen watching college basketball.

962
00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:24,600
Speaker 1: He was pulling up from Steph Curry range and just

963
00:45:24,680 --> 00:45:27,840
Speaker 1: hitting everything, and they still couldn't beat the Team of Destiny.

964
00:45:28,360 --> 00:45:31,799
Speaker 1: Virginia that was a wild performance to watch. I will

965
00:45:31,800 --> 00:45:35,160
Speaker 1: never forget forget that game. Jason. We hit on Purdue

966
00:45:35,200 --> 00:45:37,480
Speaker 1: a little bit last night, but for the betting audience,

967
00:45:37,480 --> 00:45:39,399
Speaker 1: what do you make? And then we talked about how

968
00:45:39,400 --> 00:45:42,399
Speaker 1: they've lost to what like a twelve seed, a thirteen seed,

969
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:44,719
Speaker 1: a fourteen seed in the sixteen seed now and in

970
00:45:44,760 --> 00:45:47,080
Speaker 1: the last several years it's been a tough, you know,

971
00:45:47,200 --> 00:45:48,279
Speaker 1: stretch of marches for them.

972
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:50,680
Speaker 2: First of all, you triggered PTSD into me. I had

973
00:45:50,680 --> 00:45:54,560
Speaker 2: a bracket in a big money pool that if Virginia

974
00:45:54,560 --> 00:45:56,279
Speaker 2: would have lost that game in the Elite eight, I

975
00:45:56,280 --> 00:45:58,359
Speaker 2: would have clinched it out right before the Final four.

976
00:45:58,480 --> 00:46:01,000
Speaker 2: And I was basically the person that beat me. Had

977
00:46:01,000 --> 00:46:03,320
Speaker 2: to hit the insight straight with every result that happened,

978
00:46:03,360 --> 00:46:06,440
Speaker 2: and it started with that play and I ended up

979
00:46:06,480 --> 00:46:09,399
Speaker 2: not winning the pool. And so I have just had

980
00:46:09,440 --> 00:46:14,160
Speaker 2: some bad flashbacks to that that run by Virginia. Here's

981
00:46:14,160 --> 00:46:16,120
Speaker 2: what I would say. You know, I don't rule teams

982
00:46:16,120 --> 00:46:18,120
Speaker 2: out because Purdue's lost in the past, because they lost

983
00:46:18,160 --> 00:46:21,200
Speaker 2: sixteen seed. I ask why though they are they have

984
00:46:21,280 --> 00:46:23,960
Speaker 2: been better at some things, but I still have concerns.

985
00:46:24,400 --> 00:46:26,319
Speaker 2: They are four and four in games where they turn

986
00:46:26,360 --> 00:46:29,640
Speaker 2: the ball over twenty percent this year, they're undefeated when

987
00:46:29,640 --> 00:46:32,520
Speaker 2: they do not. If you can turn Purdue over, you

988
00:46:32,600 --> 00:46:34,480
Speaker 2: got a chance to beat them, if you can get

989
00:46:34,480 --> 00:46:36,719
Speaker 2: to their guards, if you can pressure them. And the

990
00:46:36,760 --> 00:46:38,680
Speaker 2: thing is, I think there are teams that there are

991
00:46:38,719 --> 00:46:40,640
Speaker 2: good teams that will be in the final four that

992
00:46:40,680 --> 00:46:43,680
Speaker 2: can do that. So I think that they are. I

993
00:46:43,719 --> 00:46:46,120
Speaker 2: don't see them losing like they did last year. I

994
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:50,759
Speaker 2: think they'll win early. The question is will they when

995
00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:53,040
Speaker 2: they go up against the cream of the crop that

996
00:46:53,239 --> 00:46:55,720
Speaker 2: can do the things that they've struggled with in the past.

997
00:46:56,040 --> 00:46:58,440
Speaker 2: Will those teams be able to beat them? I would

998
00:46:58,480 --> 00:47:02,080
Speaker 2: tend to probably play against if I knew the matchups.

999
00:47:02,080 --> 00:47:03,719
Speaker 2: I don't know the matchups yet, but I think there

1000
00:47:03,719 --> 00:47:05,800
Speaker 2: were some out there that could be tough matchups.

1001
00:47:05,880 --> 00:47:09,560
Speaker 1: Form late PJ, give me your favorite bet to win

1002
00:47:09,640 --> 00:47:11,040
Speaker 1: it all.

1003
00:47:11,120 --> 00:47:13,800
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with North Carolina at thirteen to one. Guys,

1004
00:47:13,920 --> 00:47:16,320
Speaker 3: I think that's that's the best bet on the board.

1005
00:47:16,360 --> 00:47:18,759
Speaker 3: I know a lot of people are gonna be a

1006
00:47:18,800 --> 00:47:21,360
Speaker 3: little weary of that loss to NC State. I mean,

1007
00:47:21,400 --> 00:47:23,800
Speaker 3: we were just talking about the team of deciny with Virginia.

1008
00:47:24,200 --> 00:47:26,480
Speaker 3: I just think that was ed C State's night right.

1009
00:47:26,520 --> 00:47:29,040
Speaker 3: They played out of their mind. Horn was great, Burns

1010
00:47:29,120 --> 00:47:32,000
Speaker 3: was great. I didn't think North Carolina necessarily played all

1011
00:47:32,000 --> 00:47:33,799
Speaker 3: that bad. I thought it was interesting that a team

1012
00:47:33,840 --> 00:47:36,080
Speaker 3: playing their fifth game in fifth and five days you

1013
00:47:36,200 --> 00:47:39,319
Speaker 3: were Davis didn't decide to press full court the whole game.

1014
00:47:39,560 --> 00:47:41,759
Speaker 3: You saw towards the end there NC State was making

1015
00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:44,800
Speaker 3: some turnovers and that potentially could have made things different.

1016
00:47:45,080 --> 00:47:47,680
Speaker 3: This North Carolina team, when they want to defend at

1017
00:47:47,680 --> 00:47:51,480
Speaker 3: a high level, they are really good. There was a

1018
00:47:51,480 --> 00:47:54,759
Speaker 3: stretch there in December and January where just defensively they

1019
00:47:54,760 --> 00:47:57,800
Speaker 3: were lights out. And they have the ACC Player of

1020
00:47:57,800 --> 00:47:58,359
Speaker 3: the Year in RJ.

1021
00:47:58,520 --> 00:47:58,960
Speaker 4: Davis.

1022
00:47:59,120 --> 00:48:01,400
Speaker 3: We know that March is about guard play. They have

1023
00:48:01,480 --> 00:48:03,759
Speaker 3: one of the best going into this tournament. They just

1024
00:48:03,880 --> 00:48:06,919
Speaker 3: check a lot of boxes right in this era of

1025
00:48:07,040 --> 00:48:10,160
Speaker 3: one and done's in freshman phenoms, North Carolina is not

1026
00:48:10,239 --> 00:48:12,960
Speaker 3: built that way. They have so many upper classmen, and

1027
00:48:13,000 --> 00:48:17,560
Speaker 3: I think Baycott and Davis. Everybody's talking about Purdue losing

1028
00:48:17,600 --> 00:48:20,960
Speaker 3: to a sixteen seed last year, how about North Carolina

1029
00:48:21,080 --> 00:48:24,480
Speaker 3: being the preseason number one team. You're up fifteen points

1030
00:48:24,480 --> 00:48:27,239
Speaker 3: at halftime in the National Championship game. You don't even

1031
00:48:27,239 --> 00:48:29,839
Speaker 3: make it back to the tournament, right, one of your

1032
00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:33,120
Speaker 3: best players, Caleb Love leaves, he decides to bail after

1033
00:48:33,160 --> 00:48:36,800
Speaker 3: that season. We're all trying to talk about this Purdue narrative.

1034
00:48:37,120 --> 00:48:40,239
Speaker 3: I think we're forgetting about this North Carolina team, that

1035
00:48:40,840 --> 00:48:43,240
Speaker 3: they have some demons to exercise in this year's tournament

1036
00:48:43,239 --> 00:48:44,040
Speaker 3: a well as well.

1037
00:48:44,160 --> 00:48:45,320
Speaker 4: We already talked about.

1038
00:48:45,080 --> 00:48:47,839
Speaker 3: The path for them and how well it sets up

1039
00:48:47,840 --> 00:48:52,560
Speaker 3: for them potentially, especially later on in their region. Obviously

1040
00:48:53,040 --> 00:48:56,359
Speaker 3: getting that winner in the East Regional, whoever it ends

1041
00:48:56,440 --> 00:48:59,160
Speaker 3: up being Yukon, Auburn, Iowa State, whoever it ends up,

1042
00:48:59,560 --> 00:49:01,319
Speaker 3: whoever they end up playing, that's going to be a

1043
00:49:01,360 --> 00:49:04,200
Speaker 3: tough game. But at thirteen to one, where some of

1044
00:49:04,200 --> 00:49:06,879
Speaker 3: these other teams are valued, I like the Heels, guys.

1045
00:49:06,920 --> 00:49:08,120
Speaker 4: I think I think that's the bet.

1046
00:49:09,120 --> 00:49:11,200
Speaker 1: Jason. Before we get to your pick for your favorite

1047
00:49:11,239 --> 00:49:12,480
Speaker 1: bet to win at all, what are your thoughts in

1048
00:49:12,520 --> 00:49:14,840
Speaker 1: the tar Heels we have.

1049
00:49:15,000 --> 00:49:17,040
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not as high on North Carolina, but

1050
00:49:17,080 --> 00:49:19,800
Speaker 2: I will say this, I will say this about North Carolina.

1051
00:49:20,480 --> 00:49:23,560
Speaker 2: I do think they have a potential tough Round two

1052
00:49:23,600 --> 00:49:27,319
Speaker 2: matchup that's a barrier more than most one seeds would face,

1053
00:49:27,400 --> 00:49:29,560
Speaker 2: and not just Michigan State, by the way, because Michigan

1054
00:49:29,600 --> 00:49:33,120
Speaker 2: State can bomb out Missippi State. They've got two quality ones,

1055
00:49:33,160 --> 00:49:36,439
Speaker 2: so they're not relying on Oh if Michigan State doesn't win,

1056
00:49:37,040 --> 00:49:39,760
Speaker 2: it opens up a lot. This Mississippi State team just played,

1057
00:49:40,160 --> 00:49:42,600
Speaker 2: I mean, they've been much better with totally smith. When

1058
00:49:42,600 --> 00:49:45,440
Speaker 2: they're full lineup. They are a legit team that's probably

1059
00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:49,640
Speaker 2: better than an eight as well on quality. So this

1060
00:49:49,680 --> 00:49:51,359
Speaker 2: is a tough drawl, but once you get past that,

1061
00:49:51,440 --> 00:49:53,719
Speaker 2: I think it opens up. Here's what I would say.

1062
00:49:54,200 --> 00:49:57,760
Speaker 2: North Carolina is really popular in bracket pools. They're actually

1063
00:49:57,800 --> 00:50:00,800
Speaker 2: like even with Houston and Purdue, but in the betting

1064
00:50:00,800 --> 00:50:03,120
Speaker 2: markets the opposite. So if you actually like North Carolina,

1065
00:50:03,120 --> 00:50:04,879
Speaker 2: the better way to play them is in the betting markets,

1066
00:50:04,880 --> 00:50:07,239
Speaker 2: where you're getting a two to one price relative to

1067
00:50:07,239 --> 00:50:10,520
Speaker 2: Perdue in Houston, rather than in a bracket where the

1068
00:50:10,520 --> 00:50:13,239
Speaker 2: bracket's even on those teams. So you're actually getting more

1069
00:50:13,320 --> 00:50:16,080
Speaker 2: value on like money line plays on Carolina than you

1070
00:50:16,080 --> 00:50:16,919
Speaker 2: are in bracket place.

1071
00:50:18,040 --> 00:50:20,080
Speaker 1: All right, Jason, and I know your your pick is

1072
00:50:20,080 --> 00:50:22,400
Speaker 1: somewhat dependent on whatever the numbers you can get, but

1073
00:50:22,480 --> 00:50:24,680
Speaker 1: you are picking Yukon and I'm kind of I'm kind

1074
00:50:24,680 --> 00:50:27,600
Speaker 1: of glad this is the last team we're talking about here,

1075
00:50:27,640 --> 00:50:31,560
Speaker 1: because I want, is this a Yukon versus the field situation?

1076
00:50:31,719 --> 00:50:33,600
Speaker 1: I mean, they're not quite on the level of dominance

1077
00:50:33,640 --> 00:50:35,960
Speaker 1: of like like a twenty fifteen Kentucky, but they are

1078
00:50:35,960 --> 00:50:38,880
Speaker 1: the clear favorites. It seems like in everybody, everybody that

1079
00:50:38,920 --> 00:50:40,719
Speaker 1: I've talked to, at least since the brackets come out,

1080
00:50:40,760 --> 00:50:42,120
Speaker 1: and really in the last couple of weeks, it feels

1081
00:50:42,120 --> 00:50:45,640
Speaker 1: like you're trying to make the case against Yukon, you know,

1082
00:50:45,719 --> 00:50:49,120
Speaker 1: for anybody else, rather than just oh, look at their path,

1083
00:50:49,120 --> 00:50:51,680
Speaker 1: can they make it? Whatever? So U covers the field.

1084
00:50:51,680 --> 00:50:53,279
Speaker 1: Maybe that's a bit too strong way to phrase it,

1085
00:50:53,320 --> 00:50:55,160
Speaker 1: but this is the clear favorite.

1086
00:50:55,520 --> 00:50:58,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's the NCAA tournament. Anything has happened,

1087
00:50:58,600 --> 00:51:01,080
Speaker 2: We've seen, We've seen team was better than this Yukon

1088
00:51:01,160 --> 00:51:04,600
Speaker 2: team lose at various points throughout the history of it.

1089
00:51:04,640 --> 00:51:07,320
Speaker 2: I mean, we can go back as much as you want,

1090
00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:10,520
Speaker 2: some Kansas teams in the late nineties, some Duke teams,

1091
00:51:11,600 --> 00:51:13,799
Speaker 2: so yes, anything is possible. I would put their true

1092
00:51:13,880 --> 00:51:17,280
Speaker 2: number in the twenty two to twenty five percent range,

1093
00:51:17,560 --> 00:51:19,640
Speaker 2: but that's based on they're probably two to three points

1094
00:51:19,640 --> 00:51:21,759
Speaker 2: better than their raw power rating, and I think they're

1095
00:51:21,760 --> 00:51:24,000
Speaker 2: two to three points better on a neutral court if

1096
00:51:24,000 --> 00:51:26,520
Speaker 2: they play any team in this field. And so they're

1097
00:51:26,560 --> 00:51:28,279
Speaker 2: going to be the favorite, and they're going to be

1098
00:51:28,320 --> 00:51:32,640
Speaker 2: heavy favorites against a lot of teams and so and so,

1099
00:51:32,960 --> 00:51:35,239
Speaker 2: you know, if the path doesn't open up, you know,

1100
00:51:35,280 --> 00:51:37,480
Speaker 2: like last year the path opened up and they were

1101
00:51:37,520 --> 00:51:40,759
Speaker 2: dominant in the tournament. The path opened up greatly for them,

1102
00:51:40,760 --> 00:51:43,520
Speaker 2: but I think they still would have won it. So

1103
00:51:43,800 --> 00:51:46,880
Speaker 2: I think what you're looking at is they certainly I

1104
00:51:46,920 --> 00:51:48,600
Speaker 2: would take the field if you gave me that, But

1105
00:51:48,880 --> 00:51:52,640
Speaker 2: if you get this number at about you know, plus

1106
00:51:52,680 --> 00:51:55,319
Speaker 2: better than plus four hundred, which like I wouldn't go

1107
00:51:55,400 --> 00:51:59,279
Speaker 2: like to three three hundred to get you twenty five

1108
00:51:59,280 --> 00:52:01,600
Speaker 2: percent implied, So I probably wouldn't go down to there.

1109
00:52:01,680 --> 00:52:03,759
Speaker 2: But if I'm getting a four hundred and plus four

1110
00:52:03,800 --> 00:52:06,080
Speaker 2: hundred where I've got a twenty percent chance they win it,

1111
00:52:06,239 --> 00:52:08,640
Speaker 2: I'm probably looking at Yukon because I do think they're

1112
00:52:08,640 --> 00:52:13,560
Speaker 2: better than Houston and Purdue relative to the value. I

1113
00:52:13,560 --> 00:52:16,400
Speaker 2: think they are the better team, and so some people

1114
00:52:16,400 --> 00:52:18,400
Speaker 2: looking like Kimpom may not agree with that, but I

1115
00:52:18,440 --> 00:52:21,399
Speaker 2: think they are the better team because they have been

1116
00:52:21,520 --> 00:52:23,920
Speaker 2: best when they have their full lineup. They have been

1117
00:52:23,960 --> 00:52:26,920
Speaker 2: more injury impacted than those teams, and they're still as

1118
00:52:26,960 --> 00:52:29,000
Speaker 2: good as they are, which tells you they should be

1119
00:52:29,040 --> 00:52:30,479
Speaker 2: better now entering March.

1120
00:52:31,239 --> 00:52:33,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, PGA, you alluded earlier to the fact that we

1121
00:52:33,600 --> 00:52:36,239
Speaker 1: had kind of been alluding to Yukon as sort of

1122
00:52:36,239 --> 00:52:39,560
Speaker 1: the elephant in the room. Really throughout this conversation. How

1123
00:52:39,560 --> 00:52:41,160
Speaker 1: short would the odds need to be for you to

1124
00:52:41,200 --> 00:52:42,840
Speaker 1: not want to bet them?

1125
00:52:43,360 --> 00:52:45,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's a good question. I can tell

1126
00:52:46,000 --> 00:52:48,879
Speaker 3: you guys, right now, I think Auburn might pick them

1127
00:52:48,880 --> 00:52:50,080
Speaker 3: off in the sweet sixteen.

1128
00:52:50,239 --> 00:52:52,879
Speaker 4: I think that's the game. That's the game right there.

1129
00:52:52,960 --> 00:52:55,719
Speaker 3: If Yukon, if they survive that, I think they're going

1130
00:52:55,800 --> 00:52:59,040
Speaker 3: to be a national champion. We saw it last year

1131
00:52:59,040 --> 00:53:01,680
Speaker 3: with Bam and Houston the two betting favorites. What round

1132
00:53:01,680 --> 00:53:03,080
Speaker 3: did they lose in the sweet sixteen?

1133
00:53:03,160 --> 00:53:03,319
Speaker 4: Right?

1134
00:53:03,360 --> 00:53:04,880
Speaker 3: I mean a lot of the times, that's kind of

1135
00:53:04,880 --> 00:53:08,239
Speaker 3: the round that gets you. I think it's so fascinating.

1136
00:53:08,280 --> 00:53:08,520
Speaker 4: Guys.

1137
00:53:08,520 --> 00:53:12,239
Speaker 3: Like I talked about at the start of the podcast,

1138
00:53:12,320 --> 00:53:14,279
Speaker 3: there are so many teams in this region I think

1139
00:53:14,320 --> 00:53:18,360
Speaker 3: would be very trendy picks. If they weren't in Yukon's region,

1140
00:53:18,400 --> 00:53:20,720
Speaker 3: but because they are, we're just all kind of throwing

1141
00:53:20,719 --> 00:53:23,680
Speaker 3: them away. Because I was watching ESPN last night. There

1142
00:53:23,719 --> 00:53:27,320
Speaker 3: were eight or nine analysts on that show, and every

1143
00:53:27,360 --> 00:53:30,239
Speaker 3: single one of them picked to Yukon, and I'm just like,

1144
00:53:30,640 --> 00:53:32,840
Speaker 3: I mean, again, they're the clear cut team, Like you

1145
00:53:32,960 --> 00:53:36,480
Speaker 3: understand why, but it just feels like if there's any

1146
00:53:36,480 --> 00:53:39,480
Speaker 3: a sporting event where everybody's on the same thing, you

1147
00:53:39,640 --> 00:53:42,560
Speaker 3: kind of want to go the other way. I understand

1148
00:53:42,600 --> 00:53:44,839
Speaker 3: why a lot of people like them, I understand why

1149
00:53:44,840 --> 00:53:46,880
Speaker 3: you would even still bet them at that short of

1150
00:53:46,920 --> 00:53:47,360
Speaker 3: a price.

1151
00:53:47,800 --> 00:53:50,319
Speaker 4: But for me, I think the.

1152
00:53:50,840 --> 00:53:54,600
Speaker 3: Play is Auburn because when they match up in the

1153
00:53:54,640 --> 00:53:57,440
Speaker 3: Sweet sixteen, potentially Yukon's only going to be like a

1154
00:53:57,440 --> 00:53:59,360
Speaker 3: four and a half five and a half point favorite

1155
00:53:59,360 --> 00:54:01,000
Speaker 3: in that game, and I think it's going to surprise

1156
00:54:01,080 --> 00:54:01,960
Speaker 3: a lot of people.

1157
00:54:02,520 --> 00:54:03,680
Speaker 4: But Auburn's good.

1158
00:54:03,719 --> 00:54:06,040
Speaker 3: There's only one team accordny Kenpom It's top ten in

1159
00:54:06,080 --> 00:54:09,040
Speaker 3: offense and defense, and it's not Yukon. Now, they are

1160
00:54:09,080 --> 00:54:11,319
Speaker 3: eleventh in defense, so they're right there. But Alburn's ten

1161
00:54:11,360 --> 00:54:14,680
Speaker 3: and offense and fourth and defense. They are good, really

1162
00:54:14,719 --> 00:54:17,280
Speaker 3: really good. They had a strong strowing in the SEC tournament.

1163
00:54:17,680 --> 00:54:21,319
Speaker 3: So I think there's a chance that Yukon could could

1164
00:54:21,320 --> 00:54:23,880
Speaker 3: potentially lose to Auburn. That's kind of the way I'm trending.

1165
00:54:24,680 --> 00:54:28,120
Speaker 1: Do you, PJ think about like, do you think that

1166
00:54:28,480 --> 00:54:31,360
Speaker 1: fans and people who are betting or filling out their brackets,

1167
00:54:31,680 --> 00:54:33,360
Speaker 1: they don't just think about the fact that, I know,

1168
00:54:33,440 --> 00:54:35,239
Speaker 1: it's a different roster. They don't just think about the

1169
00:54:35,239 --> 00:54:38,120
Speaker 1: fact that Yukon won it all last year. They were

1170
00:54:38,400 --> 00:54:42,080
Speaker 1: so dominant on that run. They made mincemeat out of

1171
00:54:42,239 --> 00:54:46,600
Speaker 1: every single opponent that they faced on that run. It

1172
00:54:46,680 --> 00:54:50,200
Speaker 1: was ridiculous, how little in question every one of those

1173
00:54:50,239 --> 00:54:52,680
Speaker 1: games was so not just the fact that they are

1174
00:54:52,680 --> 00:54:55,800
Speaker 1: the defending champs and are the number one overall seed here,

1175
00:54:56,080 --> 00:54:58,759
Speaker 1: but the fact that they were so dominant last year.

1176
00:54:58,960 --> 00:55:00,160
Speaker 1: Is that way in your mind at all or do

1177
00:55:00,160 --> 00:55:01,720
Speaker 1: you think that's weighing in other people's minds.

1178
00:55:02,680 --> 00:55:05,839
Speaker 3: I don't you know. They were so dominant. To your point,

1179
00:55:05,840 --> 00:55:07,719
Speaker 3: they were six and zero against the spread. They won

1180
00:55:07,800 --> 00:55:11,160
Speaker 3: every game by double digits. I think the reason that

1181
00:55:11,239 --> 00:55:13,839
Speaker 3: I would like Yukon the most is because that team

1182
00:55:13,920 --> 00:55:16,960
Speaker 3: last year was so great in the non conference, and

1183
00:55:17,040 --> 00:55:19,840
Speaker 3: this team was so great in the non conference again

1184
00:55:19,960 --> 00:55:22,720
Speaker 3: this year, right, everybody's looking at how they finished the season,

1185
00:55:22,760 --> 00:55:25,280
Speaker 3: everybody's looking at what they're doing the last ten games,

1186
00:55:25,520 --> 00:55:28,040
Speaker 3: but what they did in the non conference last year

1187
00:55:28,360 --> 00:55:30,799
Speaker 3: and what they've done this year, I mean, they are

1188
00:55:30,880 --> 00:55:32,480
Speaker 3: just they are a machine when they get out of

1189
00:55:32,480 --> 00:55:36,520
Speaker 3: Big East play. So I certainly think that, you know,

1190
00:55:36,760 --> 00:55:39,440
Speaker 3: that was the big discussion coming in when when you're

1191
00:55:39,440 --> 00:55:42,359
Speaker 3: in late January early February, people are like, Yukon's great,

1192
00:55:42,400 --> 00:55:44,840
Speaker 3: but it's so hard to repeat, and it's kind of

1193
00:55:44,880 --> 00:55:46,839
Speaker 3: like we're just all throwing that away because of how

1194
00:55:46,880 --> 00:55:49,560
Speaker 3: impressive they have looked and how kind of everybody else

1195
00:55:49,600 --> 00:55:50,880
Speaker 3: around them has fallen a little bit.

1196
00:55:52,040 --> 00:55:54,239
Speaker 1: Jason, any other favorite bets here before we get out

1197
00:55:54,239 --> 00:55:54,520
Speaker 1: of there.

1198
00:55:55,520 --> 00:55:57,520
Speaker 2: I had a couple like, I like to play the

1199
00:55:57,600 --> 00:56:01,319
Speaker 2: round twos to miss the two way markets. So you know,

1200
00:56:02,760 --> 00:56:04,960
Speaker 2: PJ is not gonna like that. I want to. I

1201
00:56:05,000 --> 00:56:08,239
Speaker 2: want to go against Carolina to make because I because

1202
00:56:08,239 --> 00:56:09,719
Speaker 2: that way I don't have to pick Michigan State or

1203
00:56:09,719 --> 00:56:12,040
Speaker 2: Mississippi State. I think I'm getting a decent price. I

1204
00:56:12,040 --> 00:56:14,920
Speaker 2: also want to pick against Houston because again I like

1205
00:56:15,000 --> 00:56:17,040
Speaker 2: A and M. But I'll tell you what. Nebraska is

1206
00:56:17,040 --> 00:56:19,200
Speaker 2: a team I power rate higher than their raw numbers

1207
00:56:19,480 --> 00:56:21,759
Speaker 2: when I look at them. They've had some injuries when

1208
00:56:21,760 --> 00:56:23,560
Speaker 2: they had the current lineup in that this is a

1209
00:56:23,680 --> 00:56:26,640
Speaker 2: legit team too, and so I think either of them,

1210
00:56:26,960 --> 00:56:30,440
Speaker 2: if Houston's not at one hundred percent, this is going

1211
00:56:30,520 --> 00:56:32,160
Speaker 2: to be a lot game where the spread kind of

1212
00:56:32,160 --> 00:56:35,000
Speaker 2: shocks people because I think it'll be well under ten.

1213
00:56:35,719 --> 00:56:37,719
Speaker 2: With Houston, we're used to seeing a lot of ten

1214
00:56:37,760 --> 00:56:41,080
Speaker 2: points spreads. Recently they rolled Kansas what they did in

1215
00:56:41,120 --> 00:56:43,920
Speaker 2: the Big twelve. I think this number is going to

1216
00:56:43,960 --> 00:56:45,120
Speaker 2: be shorter, but we'll see.

1217
00:56:45,840 --> 00:56:48,160
Speaker 1: PJ. What about you? Any other bets that maybe I

1218
00:56:48,160 --> 00:56:50,480
Speaker 1: didn't didn't fit any of the categories essential, but that

1219
00:56:50,480 --> 00:56:51,520
Speaker 1: you would just want to shout out.

1220
00:56:52,800 --> 00:56:55,080
Speaker 3: B Yu is a team that I would watch out

1221
00:56:55,120 --> 00:56:57,920
Speaker 3: for in that East regional. We talked about Morehead State

1222
00:56:58,120 --> 00:57:02,920
Speaker 3: against Illinois. I think that they're they're gonna handle Dukane.

1223
00:57:02,960 --> 00:57:05,719
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna beat the winner of Illinois and

1224
00:57:06,920 --> 00:57:10,600
Speaker 3: Morehead State in the sweet sixteen. If they draw Iowa State.

1225
00:57:10,719 --> 00:57:13,840
Speaker 3: They have played them twice. They should have won both games.

1226
00:57:13,840 --> 00:57:15,800
Speaker 3: They won the game in provo the game and ames

1227
00:57:15,840 --> 00:57:19,120
Speaker 3: they played a couple weeks ago, BYU did not score

1228
00:57:19,120 --> 00:57:20,960
Speaker 3: a point in the final four minutes and they only

1229
00:57:21,000 --> 00:57:25,080
Speaker 3: lost by a possession. So Iowa State is really good defensively.

1230
00:57:25,320 --> 00:57:27,560
Speaker 3: They obviously just won the Big Twelve. A lot of

1231
00:57:27,560 --> 00:57:29,760
Speaker 3: people are gonna kind of have that fresh in their minds.

1232
00:57:30,040 --> 00:57:32,640
Speaker 3: By you is one of these teams that we've kind

1233
00:57:32,640 --> 00:57:34,919
Speaker 3: of seen in this new era college basketball that lives

1234
00:57:34,920 --> 00:57:37,240
Speaker 3: and dies by the threes. If that's a game where

1235
00:57:37,280 --> 00:57:40,400
Speaker 3: they're hitting their threes, because Iowa State will give up threes,

1236
00:57:40,680 --> 00:57:43,840
Speaker 3: that's a really bad matchup for him. So all these

1237
00:57:43,880 --> 00:57:48,000
Speaker 3: great teams we've talked to you kN Auburn, right, Iowa State, BYU,

1238
00:57:48,000 --> 00:57:50,040
Speaker 3: They're gonna have a really good Elite eight price because

1239
00:57:50,040 --> 00:57:51,200
Speaker 3: of the teams in their region.

1240
00:57:51,360 --> 00:57:52,960
Speaker 4: I think there's a chance that they could make the

1241
00:57:53,000 --> 00:57:53,440
Speaker 4: Elite eight.

1242
00:57:54,560 --> 00:57:56,680
Speaker 1: PJ. I didn't ask you to prep this, but we

1243
00:57:56,720 --> 00:58:00,040
Speaker 1: can't have a podcast episode about March Madness with that.

1244
00:58:00,080 --> 00:58:02,080
Speaker 1: You giving me your final four? Who's your final four?

1245
00:58:02,920 --> 00:58:08,200
Speaker 3: I have Auburn, UNC, I'm gonna go with Florida and Tennessee.

1246
00:58:08,680 --> 00:58:12,600
Speaker 3: So I got three SEC teams in the final four

1247
00:58:13,080 --> 00:58:16,200
Speaker 3: this year. I'll go North Carolina against Tennessee and have

1248
00:58:16,240 --> 00:58:17,720
Speaker 3: the tar Heels win in the whole thing.

1249
00:58:18,640 --> 00:58:21,720
Speaker 1: Wow, going going big on the tar Heels. Jason, what

1250
00:58:21,760 --> 00:58:23,600
Speaker 1: about you? You have a final four you can give us?

1251
00:58:24,800 --> 00:58:27,640
Speaker 2: Oh well, I'll go you. I love the Auburn I

1252
00:58:27,640 --> 00:58:30,640
Speaker 2: mean again, I love those two teams. I would probably

1253
00:58:30,680 --> 00:58:32,320
Speaker 2: pick them in the championship game if they were on

1254
00:58:32,360 --> 00:58:34,760
Speaker 2: opposite sides of the market, Connecticut and Auburn. But I'll

1255
00:58:34,760 --> 00:58:38,640
Speaker 2: go Connecticut. I do think Auburn, relatively speaking, their worst

1256
00:58:38,680 --> 00:58:43,120
Speaker 2: games have come against the lead offenses they destroyed. If

1257
00:58:43,160 --> 00:58:44,720
Speaker 2: you don't have a great offense, Auburn is going to

1258
00:58:44,760 --> 00:58:48,960
Speaker 2: destroy you like they did South Carolina twice. I do

1259
00:58:49,000 --> 00:58:52,840
Speaker 2: think Connecticut can maybe do what they need to do

1260
00:58:52,880 --> 00:58:56,680
Speaker 2: against that Auburn pressure. But Auburn's tough. So I'll take Yukon,

1261
00:58:56,960 --> 00:59:00,720
Speaker 2: I'll take I guess Arizona and begrudgingly over you and see,

1262
00:59:01,240 --> 00:59:04,040
Speaker 2: I will take I'm going to go with you know,

1263
00:59:04,080 --> 00:59:06,960
Speaker 2: Pj's long shot, even though I picked Colorado as a

1264
00:59:07,000 --> 00:59:08,760
Speaker 2: really long So I'll take Marquette in the final four.

1265
00:59:09,240 --> 00:59:13,400
Speaker 2: If we're if we're looking for value and then you know,

1266
00:59:14,160 --> 00:59:18,120
Speaker 2: the final one, what do we want here? Completely wide open?

1267
00:59:18,360 --> 00:59:19,760
Speaker 2: Do I want to take for dude.

1268
00:59:21,040 --> 00:59:23,920
Speaker 1: I actually feel really I like Tennessee a lot as

1269
00:59:24,040 --> 00:59:30,080
Speaker 1: my representative from the Midwest. So I'm I'm actually, if

1270
00:59:30,080 --> 00:59:32,000
Speaker 1: you take Tennessee, then you actually have the four the

1271
00:59:32,040 --> 00:59:34,520
Speaker 1: same time, which is you got.

1272
00:59:34,880 --> 00:59:37,200
Speaker 2: Ten days ago, I would have said, Tennessee, I'll play

1273
00:59:37,240 --> 00:59:40,320
Speaker 2: against the people that think Barnes can't win, and then

1274
00:59:40,360 --> 00:59:43,000
Speaker 2: they do what they did, and the Kentucky one doesn't

1275
00:59:43,000 --> 00:59:47,160
Speaker 2: concern me. Kentucky shot lights out. It happens. The fact

1276
00:59:47,200 --> 00:59:50,919
Speaker 2: that Mississippi State bullied and Dalton had his worst game

1277
00:59:51,040 --> 00:59:55,800
Speaker 2: since MAUI was concerning against that competition. But I still

1278
00:59:55,800 --> 00:59:58,640
Speaker 2: think Tennessee is capable. I guess I'll go with Tennessee.

1279
00:59:58,640 --> 01:00:02,160
Speaker 2: They do have the defensive number. They are a different offense.

1280
01:00:02,920 --> 01:00:05,400
Speaker 2: Up until that stretch, I would have said, this team's peaking,

1281
01:00:05,440 --> 01:00:07,919
Speaker 2: they're getting there. You know, their point guard was coming

1282
01:00:07,920 --> 01:00:10,080
Speaker 2: off of torn acl they were working them back in

1283
01:00:10,080 --> 01:00:11,840
Speaker 2: the lineup. This team is peaking at the right time,

1284
01:00:11,880 --> 01:00:14,360
Speaker 2: they're getting healthy, they're getting better throughout the year. And

1285
01:00:14,400 --> 01:00:17,440
Speaker 2: then the last ten days happened, and so maybe that

1286
01:00:17,520 --> 01:00:19,880
Speaker 2: was a blip. We've seen that in the before. Hopefully

1287
01:00:19,880 --> 01:00:21,800
Speaker 2: that was blips. So yeah, I think Tennessee's a good

1288
01:00:21,880 --> 01:00:25,160
Speaker 2: solid value pick if they get to the Elite eight.

1289
01:00:25,240 --> 01:00:26,280
Speaker 2: I like him against Purdue.

1290
01:00:26,960 --> 01:00:29,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, I definitely do as well. We will get out

1291
01:00:29,440 --> 01:00:32,000
Speaker 1: of there on that. They get Adjason list from Pool

1292
01:00:32,040 --> 01:00:34,240
Speaker 1: Genius for joining us. They give of course the PJ

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Speaker 1: Glasser from bet qel for joining us. Guys, fun bracket talk,

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Speaker 1: I mean not PJA mentioned, you know, Thursday Friday two

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Speaker 1: best days in the calendar. These next two or three

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Speaker 1: days are also super fun. Just getting excited and the

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Speaker 1: anticipation and you know, tweeting, you know, toying with your

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Speaker 1: bracket and all your different pools. It's just what a

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Speaker 1: fun week for college troops fans. And I'm I'm really excited.

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Speaker 1: So for the guys that came on. Thank you to

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01:00:57,720 --> 01:00:59,760
Speaker 1: both of them. Thank you everybody sticking around for an

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Speaker 1: hour our bracket talk. I'm Ryan Warmley and we'll see

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Speaker 1: you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Betting

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01:01:04,840 --> 01:01:07,880
Speaker 1: Pros podcast. If you love the show, the best freeway

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Speaker 1: to support us is by leaving a positive review on

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Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on x and TikTok

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Speaker 1: at Betting Pros and Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also

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Speaker 1: subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com. Slash

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Speaker 1: Betting pros