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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough? No running again? So smoothe so sweet.

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Speaker 2: Splendid sixteen just glorious execution.

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Speaker 3: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 3: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that?

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Speaker 3: Shop with mind and buddy, and that's why you see

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Speaker 3: your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements, the most.

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Speaker 2: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 3: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 2: Shut up, I'm trying the one.

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Speaker 3: It's left too, the wide eyed.

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Speaker 4: Drilled bibus.

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Speaker 2: How old earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 1: Hlori one.

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Speaker 4: Welcome back to Wondergolf for the soccer betting podcast from

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Speaker 4: the Action Network, presented to you by our friends at

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Speaker 4: bet three six five Manda's Michael Eba. I am your

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Speaker 4: host for today's episode, which will cover the sixteen upcoming

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Speaker 4: games in the Champions League on Tuesday and Wednesday, and

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Speaker 4: in a moment I'll also introduce you to my friends

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Speaker 4: and co hosts BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dbundo. But before

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Speaker 4: we get those two gentlemen in to break down which

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Speaker 4: should be an interesting slate of matches in the Champions League,

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Speaker 4: a reminder that one of goal is presented to you

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Speaker 4: by Bet three sixty five, and Bet three sixty five

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Speaker 4: doesn't do ordinary. It believes every sport should be epic,

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Speaker 4: from every tournament, to every game, to every point, to

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Speaker 4: every play, from the moments that are legendary to the

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Speaker 4: ones that fly under the radar. See for yourself when

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Speaker 4: you set up today with code action, and you'll get

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Speaker 4: three hundred and sixty five dollars and bonus bets when

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Speaker 4: you bet just one dollar. Whatever the sport, whatever the moment,

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Speaker 4: it's never ordinary. At Bet three sixty five, you must

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Speaker 4: be twenty one or older, and you must be present

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Speaker 4: in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia. And

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Speaker 4: if you or someone you know has a gambling problem

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Speaker 4: and wants help, please call. Whenne hundred gambler in Colorado, Kentucky,

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Speaker 4: New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia and one eight hundred bets

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Speaker 4: off in Iowa, terms and conditions apply, BJ Anthony, let's

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Speaker 4: get to it. Sixteen games to go over a whole

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Speaker 4: lot of ramifications. I would say that the one we're

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Speaker 4: gonna lead off with is maybe the headliner for both days.

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Speaker 4: You can maybe make an argument that a game on

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Speaker 4: Wednesday that will lead off with for those eight matches

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Speaker 4: is the headliner, but PSG and Newcastle the group of

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Speaker 4: death still up for grabs. PSG hosting the Magpies after

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Speaker 4: Newcastle came back into form with a win over Chelsea

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Speaker 4: over the weekend. PSG still, though odds on minus won

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Speaker 4: sixty three at home, the Magpies traveling at plus four

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Speaker 4: to twenty five and the draw here is plus three

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Speaker 4: hundred BJ. You and I look to be on the

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Speaker 4: same side here. I think Newcastle is worth a shot

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Speaker 4: injury issues aside, like they look really really good in

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Speaker 4: that second half, especially against Chelsea there. I guess you

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Speaker 4: can be concerned that the the squad is just going

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Speaker 4: to be stretched thin now turning around and playing a

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Speaker 4: couple of days later. But plus four twenty five on

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Speaker 4: Newcastle's for nothing to thumbier nose that I don't think

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Speaker 4: this is.

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Speaker 3: The famous four to one win from Newcastle. They destroyed

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Speaker 3: PSG at Saint James Park because something that we won't

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Speaker 3: talk about going into it was PSG with Luis Enriquez.

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Speaker 3: They're going to build out of the back. They're not

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Speaker 3: going to spend the ball along, They're not going to

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Speaker 3: play direct and Newcastle destroyed them with their physicality and

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Speaker 3: they're high pressing now. In the end, the past per

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Speaker 3: defensive action and the high pressing numbers really weren't indicative

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Speaker 3: of essentially what happened. But Newcastle was very, very good

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Speaker 3: in their mid block again, a lot of great transition

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Speaker 3: opportunities going forward. Now the question is is can they

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Speaker 3: repeat that on the road in Paris. I think they

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Speaker 3: can given the current situation of personnel available. The lineup

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Speaker 3: they played against Chelsea is not that far off from

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Speaker 3: the usual lineup we see weekend and week out from Newcastle.

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Speaker 3: What was so great about that matchicinst Chelsea is because

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Speaker 3: of the international break, because as the other personnel available,

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Speaker 3: they started pressing again from their four through three instead

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Speaker 3: of a four to five to one more passive mid

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Speaker 3: block type and that's how they really destroyed Chelsea and

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Speaker 3: caused a lot of problems. Now they can do that

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Speaker 3: again and from a price standpoint, this is too high

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Speaker 3: on PSG. Quite frankly, I know they've been a great

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Speaker 3: form in League on I know that you know Killian

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Speaker 3: and Bape can can wreck this game on the left

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Speaker 3: side of the pitch. But given the way that Newcastle

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Speaker 3: beat up Chelsea what they've done to PSG in the

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Speaker 3: first meeting. I know it's Newcastle on the road, which

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Speaker 3: is a much different animal than Newcastle at home, but

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Speaker 3: I mean this team is still in the top four

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Speaker 3: in the Premier League and expect a gold differential like

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Speaker 3: there still should be priced towards a team like Liverpool

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Speaker 3: and Arsenal. They should not be priced essentially this far

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Speaker 3: down against PSGs. So I do like Newcastle plus one

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Speaker 3: best pricing you can find of that as minus one twenty

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Speaker 3: two right now. Again, what they did is definitely repeatable

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Speaker 3: here on the road because Luis en Riki and PSG

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Speaker 3: are not going to change. They are going to build

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Speaker 3: out of the back and Newcastle can beat them up

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Speaker 3: once again. So Newcastle plus one minus one twenty two

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Speaker 3: for me.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and you touched on the numbers for PSG right now?

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Speaker 4: Are they're sparkling right like? They've won six on the

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Speaker 4: spin in legal and if you go back and over

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Speaker 4: the last month and a half ish, they've scored at

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Speaker 4: least three goals in all but one match, and that's

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Speaker 4: a span of eight matches. The only one that they

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Speaker 4: didn't score three was the two one loss to Milan,

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Speaker 4: which through this entire group into chaos. Right like the

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Speaker 4: two one loss for PSG. Here's how this group sets

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Speaker 4: up the Group of death. It looked like it wasn't

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Speaker 4: going to live up to its billing through the first

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Speaker 4: three matches, but all of a sudden, now every team

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Speaker 4: is more than alive. Newcastle's at the foot with four points,

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Speaker 4: Milan is UH in third place with five, PSG at

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Speaker 4: six points, and then Dortmund, as we all UH expected,

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Speaker 4: are in first place. They've scored three goals in the

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Speaker 4: competition two three goals scored, two goals allowed. Dortmund still

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Speaker 4: at the top of the table at seven points. Any

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Speaker 4: any team could end up in any situation in the

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Speaker 4: Group death, which you know, that's you can't really say

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Speaker 4: that about any other group in this uh in during

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Speaker 4: this group stages, which has been lacking drama outside of

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Speaker 4: a select few groups. And I do wonder, actually if

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Speaker 4: this the onus for for Newcastle they need to win.

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Speaker 4: I think PSG is probably going to be a little

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Speaker 4: more conservative, even at home in in the nitty gritty

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Speaker 4: of the match if if it's still in the balance,

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Speaker 4: because because they could essentially ah, they can feel confident

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Speaker 4: about their spot, you'd want them to win. They they

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Speaker 4: got to go to Dortmund to finished the group stage.

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Speaker 4: But I think the fact that Newcastle has to be

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Speaker 4: a little more aggressive actually helps them because what has

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Speaker 4: been our criticism about them all season, Anthony is like,

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Speaker 4: just take more chances. They're sometimes they're too pragmatic, they

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Speaker 4: try to shut things down way too early, and if

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Speaker 4: they could be a little bit more front footed, this

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Speaker 4: could be a dangerous team that could basically play with

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Speaker 4: anybody in Europe.

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Speaker 2: Well that's the big question, right because it hasn't translated

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Speaker 2: into Europe. If you just pull up the raw XG difference,

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Speaker 2: they are the worst team in this group so far,

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Speaker 2: and I think coming into the group we all would

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Speaker 2: have agreed they're probably second best on paper, and the

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Speaker 2: betting markets had them as the second favorite. So you know,

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Speaker 2: it's a tiny sample. It's four matches. One of those

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Speaker 2: matches the one against Dortmund two weeks ago, they had

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Speaker 2: a very shorthanded team with basically no attackers. So how

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Speaker 2: much do you read into that. I personally think that

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Speaker 2: I would lean with you guys here. The biggest thing

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Speaker 2: about the road match or the home match again was

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Speaker 2: that in Bape got so isolated. I mean he was

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Speaker 2: barely a factor for large stretches of that match because

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Speaker 2: the PSG just never got the ball progressed far enough

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Speaker 2: to consistently get the ball to him as the outlet,

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Speaker 2: and they they were not going long like when they

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Speaker 2: when we watch France play like it's so many long

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Speaker 2: balls to himbape as just like forget the midfield, we're

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Speaker 2: going to bypass that. It's not Owenrique is going to

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Speaker 2: set them up, so it certainly makes them vulnerable. I

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Speaker 2: am leaning Newcastle. I want to dig a little bit

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Speaker 2: more into the Milan match for for Newcastle because that's

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Speaker 2: the one that really puzzles me when they went to

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Speaker 2: Milan and got a Neil Nol draw but got completely

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Speaker 2: smoked and really should have lost. Because when you have

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Speaker 2: two consecutive terrible away performances in Europe, it does raise

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Speaker 2: a red flag. I don't know that you know, we're

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Speaker 2: probably overreacting to it, but it is notable and something

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Speaker 2: I want to dig more into. And I will have

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Speaker 2: a preview for this match coming up in the Action

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Speaker 2: Network app Algastiico Round two, so stay tuned of the

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Speaker 2: app and I'll have a bed as well, but I

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Speaker 2: have to build the courage to get to plus one.

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Speaker 3: Here.

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Speaker 2: I do show a little bit of value on Newcastle,

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Speaker 2: so it's clearly the side for me. I just don't

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Speaker 2: know if I'm gonna fire.

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Speaker 4: The other group Group F matches Milan and Dortmund, this

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Speaker 4: one in Italy. Milan is plus one hundred at home,

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Speaker 4: Dortmund traveling at plus two sixty and the draw also.

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Speaker 1: At plus two sixty.

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Speaker 4: And I think that the most telling thing about Dortmund

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Speaker 4: is is in your mind when you think about dortmun

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Speaker 4: especially in Europe, it's the swashbuckling, exciting team, a lot

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Speaker 4: of young talent. Everyone's like for people like me or

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Speaker 4: I guess you know Anthony, and right now with Tottenham

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Speaker 4: not in the Champions League, I feel like a lot

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Speaker 4: of just general soccer fans default to Dortmund is the

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Speaker 4: team they want to root for because they're not one

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Speaker 4: of the you know, the prestige clubs. They're not PSG,

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Speaker 4: and it ends up being like a hobby team for everybody.

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Speaker 4: That's just not what's happened with with this team like

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Speaker 4: that too. A neutral this has been a team that's

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Speaker 4: just turning games into rock fights and it's been effective

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Speaker 4: for them because you know, they've not been very good

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Speaker 4: in the Budhestliga this season, and somehow they're in the

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Speaker 4: pole position in the Group of death here and in

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Speaker 4: the Champions League, and I kind of want to bet

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Speaker 4: them here because I just I don't think Milan really

200
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Speaker 4: frightens me, and not the type of team that I

201
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Speaker 4: think profiles very well as a favorite, even at home.

202
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Speaker 4: Given there an offense that I think is could sputter.

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Speaker 1: At times, I guess is the best way to put it,

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Speaker 1: But I don't know.

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Speaker 4: I think the number maybe would need to be a

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Speaker 4: little bit higher for me on Dortmund, but it would

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Speaker 4: it would absolutely be the German side or pass for me.

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Speaker 1: Anthony, Yeah, I mean no, No.

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Speaker 2: Leao is a huge issue, and neither him nor Daru

210
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Speaker 2: played against Fiorentina in a game that ended just it

211
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Speaker 2: was just a terrible soccer match ended one no to

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Speaker 2: Milan really didn't have much going on in the match,

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Speaker 2: and you just kind of see the difference when he's

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Speaker 2: not out there, just how little this attack creates. Now,

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Speaker 2: they kind of had to go for it right at

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Speaker 2: home against PSG. Even in that match which they won,

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Speaker 2: they were out created on expected goals. You know, the

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Speaker 2: early set pieces played a role in that. I really

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00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:21,320
Speaker 2: don't know what to do with either of these teams.

220
00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:24,079
Speaker 2: I'm struggling with it from a perspective of like Dortmund's

221
00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:27,599
Speaker 2: defense is so bad and it was on display. I

222
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Speaker 2: mean they went down to no Glodbach and could have

223
00:11:29,679 --> 00:11:34,040
Speaker 2: easily conceded three or four. Ah, they got destroyed at Stuttgart.

224
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Speaker 2: Like this team has not been defending in the Bundesliga

225
00:11:39,200 --> 00:11:40,800
Speaker 2: and then they come to Europe and they're still not

226
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Speaker 2: really defending. Like they got away with it against PSG

227
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Speaker 2: because PSG had a really poor match, but like PSG

228
00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:49,439
Speaker 2: still put up over two XG. Milan got to one

229
00:11:49,440 --> 00:11:51,679
Speaker 2: and a half against them even though they didn't score.

230
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Speaker 2: They got to play Newcastle when Newcastle was really shorthanded, right,

231
00:11:55,640 --> 00:11:58,080
Speaker 2: So I think Dortman has kind of benefited from that.

232
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Speaker 2: Now the question is what does Milan do and approach

233
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Speaker 2: perspective here Dormund is you know, atop the group a

234
00:12:03,720 --> 00:12:06,199
Speaker 2: point would be great for them. You know, Milan has

235
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Speaker 2: to go to Newcastle on the final day, so I

236
00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:10,520
Speaker 2: think this is kind of an all in spot for

237
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Speaker 2: Milan where they have to take more chances, but when

238
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Speaker 2: Milan does have to expand more, their defense doesn't hold up.

239
00:12:18,280 --> 00:12:20,160
Speaker 2: Their defense is good when they're able to be very

240
00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:23,200
Speaker 2: passive and very defensive and not commit numbers forward, but

241
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Speaker 2: when the AO isn't there, it actually hurts their defense

242
00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:27,560
Speaker 2: because they have to commit more numbers forward and then

243
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Speaker 2: they go and give up a bunch of chances as

244
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Speaker 2: a result of that. So I think there's some real

245
00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:36,880
Speaker 2: questions about this total, and I think it's probably a

246
00:12:36,880 --> 00:12:40,359
Speaker 2: touch low. But then again, betting Milan overs with leawahout

247
00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:43,880
Speaker 2: is a scary proposition, so I lean to the over here.

248
00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:48,120
Speaker 2: I do not show value on it. But again, like

249
00:12:48,160 --> 00:12:51,160
Speaker 2: I think that if anything, you know, Milan has to

250
00:12:51,200 --> 00:12:53,400
Speaker 2: go for this. Dortmann's happy to go back and forth

251
00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:56,280
Speaker 2: with them, and the Dortmund defense continues to just leak

252
00:12:56,360 --> 00:12:58,680
Speaker 2: goals left and right. So I think there are goals

253
00:12:58,679 --> 00:12:59,120
Speaker 2: in this game.

254
00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:02,040
Speaker 3: And that's what happened in the first match against PSG, right,

255
00:13:02,080 --> 00:13:03,920
Speaker 3: because they only had one point, they hadn't scored yet

256
00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:06,000
Speaker 3: in the Champions League, and then they decided to man

257
00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:08,680
Speaker 3: mark press PSG and they just got and bop it

258
00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:11,800
Speaker 3: repeatedly over and over again. And yes, they went forward

259
00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:14,360
Speaker 3: again against PSG, and like Anthony said, it was pretty

260
00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:18,160
Speaker 3: close unexpected goals and they won the match. But I'm

261
00:13:18,160 --> 00:13:20,040
Speaker 3: with Anthony, I really want to bet an over here,

262
00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:24,960
Speaker 3: but I cannot do it with Layout right now. So yeah,

263
00:13:25,080 --> 00:13:28,160
Speaker 3: that just over nothing for me. If Layout plays, I'll

264
00:13:28,160 --> 00:13:29,000
Speaker 3: probably be on the over.

265
00:13:29,360 --> 00:13:30,880
Speaker 2: But if not, yeah, it looks like he's still out.

266
00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:34,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, so unfortunately, probably going to pass on this one.

267
00:13:34,600 --> 00:13:36,240
Speaker 2: I mean, Dorman still, I mean, like they've been playing

268
00:13:36,240 --> 00:13:39,640
Speaker 2: Bino Gittins more. He was really good. Like the Doorman

269
00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:42,920
Speaker 2: is still a good attacking side. They figured out, you know,

270
00:13:42,960 --> 00:13:46,400
Speaker 2: some of their ball progression issues on the road, Like

271
00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:50,840
Speaker 2: they have not been good in the Champions League defensively

272
00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:52,880
Speaker 2: on the road either, So I mean they haven't good anywhere.

273
00:13:52,920 --> 00:13:55,840
Speaker 2: But two and a half minus one fifteen is going

274
00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:59,600
Speaker 2: to stare at me for a long time. Of course,

275
00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:01,640
Speaker 2: I'm you know, lost on the Milan under both matches

276
00:14:01,640 --> 00:14:04,000
Speaker 2: against PSG, and now if I come back on an

277
00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:05,600
Speaker 2: over and say like they have to go for this,

278
00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:10,000
Speaker 2: they're probably going to shut it down. But this dormant

279
00:14:10,040 --> 00:14:12,280
Speaker 2: totals two and a half against competent teams just seem

280
00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:13,240
Speaker 2: crazy to me right now.

281
00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:15,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, and you try not to read too much into

282
00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:22,240
Speaker 4: the this situational spot at all. But yeah, Dortmund could,

283
00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:26,880
Speaker 4: like you said, they could just try to shut it down.

284
00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:28,320
Speaker 4: I mean, it's against their DNA.

285
00:14:28,120 --> 00:14:31,200
Speaker 1: They're right, Yeah they're not. It's like against their DNA,

286
00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:33,000
Speaker 1: but it's it.

287
00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:35,080
Speaker 4: And but that's the point I'm trying to make it

288
00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:37,320
Speaker 4: like they could come out with a conservative approach and

289
00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:39,560
Speaker 4: it could just be a mess, an absolute mess.

290
00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:43,920
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think Milan says. I think Milan takes

291
00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:46,680
Speaker 2: more risks here. I think they have to they do. Yeah,

292
00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:48,800
Speaker 2: they don't win this match, They're they're I mean, they're

293
00:14:48,800 --> 00:14:50,760
Speaker 2: gonna need to result the final day and going to

294
00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:53,280
Speaker 2: Yeah they're gonna be.

295
00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:57,360
Speaker 3: That match can be incredible given the situation that potentially.

296
00:14:57,120 --> 00:14:58,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, the final day in this group has a be time.

297
00:14:58,640 --> 00:14:59,960
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm reading as a new trum arning for

298
00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:04,200
Speaker 2: SG to get a win, and I guess, uh rooting

299
00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:06,040
Speaker 2: for I guess I can root for Newcastle n PSG

300
00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:07,400
Speaker 2: to get a win. So maybe both matches.

301
00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:08,400
Speaker 1: Yell, that's what I say.

302
00:15:08,400 --> 00:15:10,320
Speaker 4: If you're if you're rooting for Chaos, it's draw, draw,

303
00:15:11,920 --> 00:15:14,320
Speaker 4: because that just keeps everything status quo going into the

304
00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:14,840
Speaker 4: final day.

305
00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:18,040
Speaker 2: Uh, and then we'd have we'd have Newcastle at home

306
00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:22,040
Speaker 2: with a chance to flip it on Milan and the

307
00:15:22,080 --> 00:15:24,880
Speaker 2: PSG at Dorton right, and then we'd have PSG Dortmund

308
00:15:25,000 --> 00:15:27,200
Speaker 2: playing out like a really KG match where like they

309
00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:29,680
Speaker 2: could both in theory go through if they if they

310
00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:30,240
Speaker 2: like drew.

311
00:15:30,040 --> 00:15:32,280
Speaker 1: The disgrace of disgrace of Gillon.

312
00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:34,280
Speaker 4: I have a I have a ticket from that game

313
00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:37,800
Speaker 4: and from the World Cup in nineteen eighty two and Spain.

314
00:15:38,600 --> 00:15:39,560
Speaker 2: It's very Darren revel.

315
00:15:39,760 --> 00:15:44,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I won't, I won't. I won't say who got me? Uh?

316
00:15:44,880 --> 00:15:46,680
Speaker 4: Who got me thinking about buying that ticket when I

317
00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:50,800
Speaker 4: find and I finally saw it on eBay. Anyways, enough

318
00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:54,640
Speaker 4: about the disgrace of Gikon onto fire an ord and

319
00:15:55,080 --> 00:16:00,440
Speaker 4: at Letty our boys, oh boy, Anthony's boys. Anthony finally

320
00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:08,360
Speaker 4: come around on Diego Simoni and those Colchannarios. It's taken forever.

321
00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:09,920
Speaker 2: Expect o difference in Spain.

322
00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:11,120
Speaker 1: Right now they are unbelievable.

323
00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:13,520
Speaker 5: The defense good right now, they are.

324
00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:16,120
Speaker 3: Go pull it up.

325
00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:19,000
Speaker 1: You can put them in the NBA. I think they

326
00:16:19,040 --> 00:16:19,680
Speaker 1: make the playoffs.

327
00:16:20,400 --> 00:16:24,720
Speaker 3: Uh, you can put them in the Big ten West

328
00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:25,240
Speaker 3: and they'll.

329
00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:30,720
Speaker 4: You guys, you love your you love the Nord. Uh,

330
00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:34,880
Speaker 4: this game's a pick them. It's once plus one sixty two,

331
00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:39,360
Speaker 4: like negligible favorites for the Dutch side at home, the

332
00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:41,720
Speaker 4: fighting Simeoni is traveling at plus one sixty in the

333
00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:46,680
Speaker 4: jaws plus two fifty. So Anthony as our resident Atletico

334
00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:52,000
Speaker 4: Madrid fan, Uh why uh why don't you think this

335
00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:54,880
Speaker 4: number is actionable on uh by an RD?

336
00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:57,480
Speaker 2: Well, I do those think Atletico is a better team.

337
00:16:58,040 --> 00:17:01,600
Speaker 2: So like for me to bet the better, the better

338
00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:03,680
Speaker 2: the worst team at a pick them even though they're

339
00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:05,560
Speaker 2: at home, like, it does take some courage and so

340
00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:07,040
Speaker 2: I don't think the number is great, Like I think

341
00:17:07,080 --> 00:17:09,119
Speaker 2: the market has kind of caught on to Nord. Like

342
00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:11,400
Speaker 2: we got a couple of really good Nord spots early

343
00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:15,240
Speaker 2: in this group. They pounced and trounced Lotzio at home,

344
00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:16,600
Speaker 2: and then all of a sudden it was like, oh,

345
00:17:16,680 --> 00:17:19,520
Speaker 2: now they're a pick them at Lotzio. That's probably right.

346
00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:23,560
Speaker 2: I still bet it anyway, because I hate Latzio so much. FINRD,

347
00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:26,920
Speaker 2: this one is a little tougher for me. With fine

348
00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:31,040
Speaker 2: Nord at home, they are still defensively flawed and you know,

349
00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:32,520
Speaker 2: if you go back and look at like what happened

350
00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:35,280
Speaker 2: in the first match. Fian Nord completely controlled all of

351
00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:39,240
Speaker 2: the midfield exchanges, they had way more attacking penalty area touches,

352
00:17:39,280 --> 00:17:41,040
Speaker 2: they controlled the flow of the match, but there were

353
00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:43,760
Speaker 2: just like one or two defensive errors where ed Letti

354
00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:48,119
Speaker 2: still has really high quality attackers Marata and Griaison that

355
00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:50,040
Speaker 2: they can just pounce on those, take their chances and

356
00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:53,600
Speaker 2: laugh as as they win this match. But overall, like

357
00:17:54,440 --> 00:17:55,960
Speaker 2: you definitely won't be getting me Betty Madrid.

358
00:17:56,040 --> 00:17:56,159
Speaker 5: Here.

359
00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:58,760
Speaker 2: If you look at the numbers from that first match,

360
00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:01,720
Speaker 2: it was two point five four expected goals two point eight.

361
00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:05,119
Speaker 2: There there was an own goal in there that they

362
00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:08,359
Speaker 2: flipped for fine Ord. But the stat that I like

363
00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:13,760
Speaker 2: here attacking penalty area touches thirty one for fine Ord,

364
00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:18,680
Speaker 2: eleven for Atleti, and Fineord did not have their best

365
00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:23,000
Speaker 2: player in that match in Sandi Himenez. So this is

366
00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:26,480
Speaker 2: like only fine Ord and I will probably end up

367
00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:29,240
Speaker 2: betting them just because I want to ride with my boys.

368
00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:34,480
Speaker 2: They have continue to just absolutely be a truck in

369
00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:38,720
Speaker 2: in the air Divisi from unlying perspective, So you know,

370
00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:44,320
Speaker 2: for me, I'm really tempted to just back them again

371
00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:46,160
Speaker 2: because I just want to keep betting them. It's fun.

372
00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:50,040
Speaker 2: Even even the loss against Lazio, like one breakaway chance,

373
00:18:50,320 --> 00:18:53,280
Speaker 2: Finord created most of the other chances. They had a

374
00:18:53,359 --> 00:18:58,560
Speaker 2: good opportunity to late to equalize, and you know, from

375
00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:01,760
Speaker 2: a again from an attacking penalty area touch his perspective

376
00:19:02,680 --> 00:19:04,600
Speaker 2: final once again had more of them, so they were

377
00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:06,880
Speaker 2: able to progress the ball pretty comfortably in the Lazzio's

378
00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:09,440
Speaker 2: penalty area and in Aletti's penaltyer. They've been taking apart

379
00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:10,960
Speaker 2: these big five league teams.

380
00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:16,399
Speaker 4: Uh yeah, it's really hard to jump in front of

381
00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:19,440
Speaker 4: this team right now, though. Who would want to jump

382
00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:21,560
Speaker 4: in front of a team they've lost twice all season

383
00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:27,040
Speaker 4: at Letty once that lost Pomis, who of course are

384
00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:30,800
Speaker 4: quickly becoming one of the best teams in all of Europe.

385
00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:35,480
Speaker 1: But yeah, I got nothing here. I'm just my heart.

386
00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:38,120
Speaker 1: You know where my heart will be BJ Yeah.

387
00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:40,840
Speaker 3: So the Athletico defense has really been improving, though I

388
00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:43,240
Speaker 3: know they haven't played difficult competition, but we're going on

389
00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:48,600
Speaker 3: seven straight matches of allowing under one expected goal essentially

390
00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:50,760
Speaker 3: since that fire a match sold the only team that's

391
00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:53,560
Speaker 3: created over one expected goal against. And the defense has really,

392
00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:56,480
Speaker 3: really improved for Athletic Cohen they destroyed Celtic because of

393
00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:58,840
Speaker 3: a red card. You know, Celtic obviously you can get

394
00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:01,840
Speaker 3: a expect goal in the match because they've the early

395
00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:05,440
Speaker 3: red card. But like Anthony mentioned, the attacking players for

396
00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:08,080
Speaker 3: Athletico right now are just in crazy good form that

397
00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:11,680
Speaker 3: even though I do like fine Ord, I'm just you know,

398
00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:14,880
Speaker 3: I have we all have the two advanced tickets, so honestly,

399
00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:16,680
Speaker 3: I think I'm just going to ride that into the

400
00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:19,920
Speaker 3: final day against Celtic for Fine Ords. So it's a

401
00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:22,240
Speaker 3: it's an easy pass for me quite frankly.

402
00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:24,240
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about Celtic.

403
00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:28,960
Speaker 4: There plus five hundred underdogs traveling to Latzio. That's not

404
00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:33,399
Speaker 4: minus one eighty eight on the attack. Inside, you're I

405
00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:34,320
Speaker 4: hate this so much.

406
00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:37,320
Speaker 2: The market came down. Actually, I hate this so much.

407
00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:40,000
Speaker 2: It's taken some Celtic money and like I agree with it,

408
00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:43,359
Speaker 2: but I'm not betting it. Why not, Well, BJ can

409
00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:47,320
Speaker 2: go more into the injury situation, but uh, like the

410
00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:50,320
Speaker 2: red card situation from the suspension from last match. The

411
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:52,600
Speaker 2: idea that like they're they're drawing completely dead in this

412
00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:55,200
Speaker 2: group now, like there's not really anything to play for.

413
00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:58,200
Speaker 4: You know, they get a they get some help from

414
00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:02,000
Speaker 4: from Simeoni and a win here, they could still get

415
00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:02,919
Speaker 4: it to the Europa Elite.

416
00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:07,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, but like when Fine wins the dead if.

417
00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:10,520
Speaker 3: If I mean their chance again s Latsio was was

418
00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:11,960
Speaker 3: at Celtic Park and they couldn't do it.

419
00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:14,320
Speaker 2: So they I mean, they should have won that much,

420
00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:14,960
Speaker 2: they should have won it.

421
00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:19,320
Speaker 3: But now we got no Rio Hatate, who's potentially their

422
00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:24,639
Speaker 3: best midfielder, Mata, starting left winger out, starting right winger

423
00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:29,640
Speaker 3: Abata is also out, so it's pretty barren in terms

424
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:31,480
Speaker 3: of their attack. And I know lots I hate Lazio

425
00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:33,000
Speaker 3: and I really want to bet against them here, and

426
00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:34,720
Speaker 3: I think that the price is a little too inflated.

427
00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:37,520
Speaker 3: But three of your best players being out for this

428
00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:42,840
Speaker 3: match is really concerning, So I'm passing whatever. Just let

429
00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:45,479
Speaker 3: let's sorry and Lazio get into the round of sixteen

430
00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:46,480
Speaker 3: and we can pummel them there.

431
00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:52,600
Speaker 1: Right, let's change two the europe Excuse me, we don't

432
00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:52,879
Speaker 1: want them.

433
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:54,359
Speaker 5: We don't want them in the round of sixteen.

434
00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:55,439
Speaker 1: Now we won't see them there.

435
00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:57,159
Speaker 2: Don't worry they might get there though.

436
00:21:57,240 --> 00:21:59,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, we don't want them. Excuse me, we don't want

437
00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:00,040
Speaker 3: them there, We want them in the euro.

438
00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:02,920
Speaker 5: League, so we can bet some other team against them.

439
00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:08,760
Speaker 4: Anti Group GI, which is UH could go down to

440
00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:12,320
Speaker 4: see the most boring group and the championship history it

441
00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:13,159
Speaker 4: projected like that.

442
00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:14,600
Speaker 1: It's played out like that.

443
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:18,600
Speaker 4: Cities at top atop they're through UH perfect record, four

444
00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:22,919
Speaker 4: wins and UH no draws or losses, twelve goals scored,

445
00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:29,680
Speaker 4: three against. It's just how it goes. Leipzig also through

446
00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:33,359
Speaker 4: three wins, no draws and a loss. And these two teams,

447
00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,720
Speaker 4: why don't you know are meeting it. The etty had

448
00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:41,560
Speaker 4: with basically zero stakes. You could argue that Leipzig could

449
00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:45,280
Speaker 4: top the group, but they're not gonna catch City.

450
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:48,000
Speaker 1: In gold differentials.

451
00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:50,560
Speaker 2: If they won this by two goals I think they

452
00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:52,760
Speaker 2: are three goals, they would they would be in. They

453
00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:54,440
Speaker 2: have to win by three at the Etty had to

454
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:58,119
Speaker 2: flip the head be head, So get your get your minds.

455
00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:02,480
Speaker 4: To or exact score three nothings, four ones, five to twos,

456
00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:03,200
Speaker 4: get him in.

457
00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:05,720
Speaker 3: And that's assuming Red Star doesn't.

458
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:07,520
Speaker 1: Just yeah, I don't think any Why would you play

459
00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:08,320
Speaker 1: anybody in this game?

460
00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:08,880
Speaker 3: Either team?

461
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:10,960
Speaker 1: Why would either team play anybody in this game?

462
00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:16,040
Speaker 3: I mean they will because it's because but yeah, it's

463
00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:18,360
Speaker 3: I mean I like the under. You can get three

464
00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:20,200
Speaker 3: and a half at underminus one fifty, which.

465
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:22,400
Speaker 1: I think is I like to draw the same reason.

466
00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:25,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, same thing. I mean City against Liverpool they went

467
00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:28,879
Speaker 3: and tried to control the match. They didn't play super aggressively,

468
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:32,440
Speaker 3: and there's a couple of things that I think PEP

469
00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:34,280
Speaker 3: will kind of go back to doing and trying to

470
00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:37,359
Speaker 3: get more game control. Is that first off, John Stones

471
00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:39,239
Speaker 3: on the Stones is on the bench, which is very

472
00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:41,680
Speaker 3: crucial for City and their build up because they like

473
00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:43,920
Speaker 3: to invert him into the center part of the pitch

474
00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 3: and he's so good at that role. But Kanji played

475
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:48,760
Speaker 3: that role really really well against Liverpool, So now PEP

476
00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:50,920
Speaker 3: has two options of game control in the middle of

477
00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:54,400
Speaker 3: the pitch. The other thing is I think you'll see

478
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:59,560
Speaker 3: Jack Realish start this match because PEP knows that Leipsig

479
00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:02,120
Speaker 3: as a team that can hurt you on the counter,

480
00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:04,040
Speaker 3: like very very quickly. That's how they scored their only

481
00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:07,959
Speaker 3: goal against City in the previous one. So Grealish, as

482
00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:11,520
Speaker 3: opposed to Doku, is much better at ball retention, much

483
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:14,520
Speaker 3: better at keeping the ball, whereas Doku is just gets

484
00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 3: the ball and just flies right at you, which he

485
00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:18,920
Speaker 3: can cause so many problems, and he RECs games, but

486
00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 3: he also loses the ball quite a bit, which causes

487
00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:24,880
Speaker 3: teams to go in transition. So I think you'll see

488
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:27,720
Speaker 3: a much very measured approach here from City trying to

489
00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:30,080
Speaker 3: control this match, trying to play through the middle of

490
00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:32,760
Speaker 3: the pitch. But I think Leipzig offensively is kind of

491
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:36,399
Speaker 3: stuck here because they want to play a four to

492
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:38,159
Speaker 3: two to two two and play through the center of

493
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:40,320
Speaker 3: the pitch, and City is not going to allow them

494
00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:42,479
Speaker 3: to do that. So unless they get like they did

495
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:44,760
Speaker 3: with Opendo for the only goal in the previous meeting,

496
00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:48,359
Speaker 3: that's all they got though, So if they don't get

497
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 3: that in this meeting, I don't really see how they're

498
00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:55,000
Speaker 3: going to score. So under three and a half, that's price.

499
00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:57,280
Speaker 3: You canvid his minus one forty five right now. I

500
00:24:57,359 --> 00:25:00,119
Speaker 3: only projected two point three and I thought I was

501
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:01,360
Speaker 3: a little low, and then I kind of went looked

502
00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:05,639
Speaker 3: into it a little more. Lipzig offensively has been just

503
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:08,840
Speaker 3: so so overperforming in the Bunslig. I mean, there are

504
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:11,640
Speaker 3: over ten goals over there what they should be expected

505
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:15,040
Speaker 3: to score. So yeah, I think you'll see City control

506
00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:17,440
Speaker 3: this match. Life Stick's going to struggle to score here.

507
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 3: So under three and a half minus from forty five.

508
00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:22,760
Speaker 2: I'm just worried City could run away with this. I'm

509
00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:26,040
Speaker 2: saying that because I bet Leipzig the last three meetings

510
00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:29,320
Speaker 2: in this series and lost two of them. But like

511
00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:33,280
Speaker 2: the the first match was not competitive at all. No,

512
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:36,119
Speaker 2: you know, I had a Leipsig ticket. They took a

513
00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:39,600
Speaker 2: ton of money closed plus a half when they were

514
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,399
Speaker 2: open plus one. It was the wrong side and I

515
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:43,959
Speaker 2: lost three to one, and of course there were two

516
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:48,439
Speaker 2: late goals. But like from a matchup perspective, this Leipzig

517
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 2: team was significantly less competitive than last year's team, and

518
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:51,760
Speaker 2: I think a lot of it had to do with

519
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:55,879
Speaker 2: just Vardiole. His absence I thought played a huge role here.

520
00:25:55,920 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 2: Any Yeah, and when you look at like the different

521
00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 2: friends this year, we talked about like Leipzig being just

522
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:09,159
Speaker 2: as good and replacing the talent with other talent that

523
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 2: could fit well, it hasn't quite come off. For their

524
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:14,240
Speaker 2: attacking numbers. I mean, they're way down. And we said

525
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:15,920
Speaker 2: earlier this year, and I think I said this on

526
00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 2: the Thursday show, like I gave them a pass because

527
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:21,440
Speaker 2: I want to stick to my priors early in the

528
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:24,840
Speaker 2: season and say, hey, like you know, they've they're running

529
00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:26,920
Speaker 2: really hot and that's affected some of their game state

530
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:30,720
Speaker 2: numbers for the season. Now though like they're barely above

531
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:34,960
Speaker 2: average in the Bundesliga. They had a really dominant game

532
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 2: against Cologne where they won six no at home. Other

533
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:43,200
Speaker 2: than that, they have been a pretty average German team

534
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 2: this year, and they have you know, kind of been

535
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:48,919
Speaker 2: a little shaky, Like conceding over one XG both matches

536
00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:53,159
Speaker 2: to Red Star is a little concerning. So I just

537
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:55,080
Speaker 2: kind of think City can do whatever they want here

538
00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:57,280
Speaker 2: and trying to predict what they might try to do

539
00:26:57,440 --> 00:26:59,600
Speaker 2: is a bold one. Now, if this got to three

540
00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:01,560
Speaker 2: and a half minus one twenty, I would definitely join

541
00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:02,600
Speaker 2: him on the.

542
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:06,560
Speaker 1: Other Yeah, I think there's just a good chance that

543
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:11,760
Speaker 1: this is just an absolute dud, So I don't really.

544
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:13,840
Speaker 3: Hate to set next.

545
00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 4: Yeah exactly, it's you know, Liverpool, then this dead rubber

546
00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:19,879
Speaker 4: and then Tottenham on Sunday for Cities.

547
00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 1: So that's enough about that game, honestly. Barcelona and Porto.

548
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 4: Now this group got turned on its head by our

549
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:34,480
Speaker 4: friends in shock Dar with the upset against Barcelona.

550
00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 1: So nobody's through yet. I think that you can feel

551
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:43,359
Speaker 1: pretty confident that it's going to be these two teams playing.

552
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:45,480
Speaker 1: But we will see.

553
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:50,240
Speaker 4: Barcelona is minus two hundred hosting Porto plus five fifty.

554
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 1: The jaw is plus three fifty.

555
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:54,480
Speaker 4: As the table stands right now, Barsa at the top

556
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:58,160
Speaker 4: on gold differential, but they're tied with Porto on points.

557
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:00,959
Speaker 4: I actually both have the same gold differential with Barcelona's

558
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:03,120
Speaker 4: got the head to head.

559
00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:05,720
Speaker 3: You, I don't know.

560
00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:08,040
Speaker 1: I don't want to say you it's skeptical. Maybe it's fair.

561
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:10,640
Speaker 4: It's a fair say you've been a little skeptical of Barcelona, Anthony,

562
00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 4: because the number, I feel like the number on Porto

563
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:22,119
Speaker 4: probably is not there yet. An interesting situation with the

564
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:24,680
Speaker 4: draw because you'd expect Porto would just want to get

565
00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:28,359
Speaker 4: that get one point from the camp new and.

566
00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 1: Put themselves in a great spot to go through.

567
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:36,240
Speaker 4: But and maybe that turns this game into a little

568
00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:37,720
Speaker 4: bit of a rock fight and put some value on

569
00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:43,440
Speaker 4: the under or draw. But I don't really feel I

570
00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:45,800
Speaker 4: don't see any reason to lay it with Barcelona's what

571
00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 4: I'm saying, Anthony.

572
00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, and I think there's some value on

573
00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:50,720
Speaker 2: the under here because we saw on the first leg

574
00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:55,280
Speaker 2: that there was not a whole lot happening. Porto got

575
00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:57,640
Speaker 2: kind of screwed. There was a couple offside moments there

576
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 2: where they I thought, got hosed out of a pen

577
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:05,280
Speaker 2: and then got hosed out of a goal with some

578
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:08,640
Speaker 2: controversial decisions. I think what we're seeing here is that

579
00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 2: maybe maybe I don't want to say this because I've

580
00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:15,040
Speaker 2: been wrong before writing this guy off, but Lewandowski's numbers

581
00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:20,800
Speaker 2: are down this year and he's at like point five

582
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:23,760
Speaker 2: non penalty XG for ninety in La Liga, which like

583
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:28,440
Speaker 2: is pretty good, but like it's not normal Lewandowski and thus,

584
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:32,040
Speaker 2: like the barsa attack, like the wingers just aren't that good.

585
00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 2: Like keep in mind what this team lost in dem Bile,

586
00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:37,920
Speaker 2: like how good he was last year for them, and

587
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:39,600
Speaker 2: the fact that he's not there anymore, the fact they

588
00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:43,080
Speaker 2: lose Fati, Like all the depth pieces have kind of

589
00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:47,800
Speaker 2: dropped off this team. And I like, you Oka Gunduwan,

590
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:50,680
Speaker 2: but like he was more of a score, big goals

591
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 2: guy than like consistently put up elite numbers guy from

592
00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:57,360
Speaker 2: like a adding to the attack perspective, So you know

593
00:29:57,440 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 2: he's been okay this year for them, But he's not

594
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:01,600
Speaker 2: getting a ton of shots. Like his last five matches

595
00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 2: he's taken one shot. So there just isn't an overwhelming

596
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:08,680
Speaker 2: athleticism advantage that they have over people. It's a lot

597
00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:11,280
Speaker 2: of stale possession. It's a lot of like, Okay, we're

598
00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 2: gonna get it to like Rufina and hope he does something.

599
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:16,960
Speaker 2: We're gonna cross it in a lot to Lewandowski. And

600
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:19,960
Speaker 2: they're just not as dynamic as I thought they might be.

601
00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:23,760
Speaker 2: And the difference is like the market is pricing them

602
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:26,720
Speaker 2: as this elite, elite team. I still think that the

603
00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:29,200
Speaker 2: best team in Spain because like Real Madrid's defense is

604
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:33,360
Speaker 2: so bad, but is this attack really good at breaking

605
00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 2: down low blocks like I'd argue, they really haven't been.

606
00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:38,520
Speaker 2: I mean, they had less than one XG at Vacano,

607
00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:41,560
Speaker 2: they were pretty average against Alavese. They've had a lot

608
00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:44,720
Speaker 2: of games where they've just kind of dragged their way

609
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:48,240
Speaker 2: through it and then scored late, like Sosiadad. I didn't

610
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:50,800
Speaker 2: think they were great against bill Bowen that win. They

611
00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 2: had that late comeback against Vigo after they were down

612
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 2: most of the match. They've had a lot of comebacks

613
00:30:56,480 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 2: so if Porto comes out and just sits there and

614
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:01,160
Speaker 2: plays for the point, a point that would be vital

615
00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:03,360
Speaker 2: for them because it keeps them ahead of shack Tar.

616
00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:06,600
Speaker 2: Like I kind of think this game plays out as

617
00:31:06,640 --> 00:31:09,320
Speaker 2: like a one nil or two nil kind of barsa win,

618
00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:14,320
Speaker 2: where like Porto, their attack has not been great in

619
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:19,000
Speaker 2: this in this tournament at all, but it will be

620
00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:23,800
Speaker 2: interesting to see if if they can replicate it like

621
00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:26,680
Speaker 2: they they can get a bunch of breakaway chances, but

622
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:29,360
Speaker 2: they're they're underlying numbers in attack are pretty average, So

623
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:32,200
Speaker 2: I lean to the under here. I want the three

624
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:35,600
Speaker 2: you know BJ's taking on that or anyway, I think

625
00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:36,000
Speaker 2: it's high.

626
00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:42,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, here's the thing. And with Barcelona and they have

627
00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:45,040
Speaker 3: been so bad in transition defense this year. They're dead

628
00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:47,840
Speaker 3: last and final third of box entry conversion aloud. And

629
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:50,720
Speaker 3: essentially what happens is when you try to overload the

630
00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:53,240
Speaker 3: last line of defense, that's all great and wonderful, but

631
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 3: when you don't have good transition defenders to defend teams

632
00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:59,120
Speaker 3: that can get at you like that, it's a problem.

633
00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:01,360
Speaker 3: And Porto, I know, we only put up point seven XG,

634
00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:04,880
Speaker 3: but they were continually wrecking Barcelona in transition like Kunde

635
00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:08,360
Speaker 3: basically save one from going.

636
00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:08,960
Speaker 5: In the back of the net.

637
00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:12,400
Speaker 3: It was it was not a good performance in Barcelona.

638
00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:15,960
Speaker 3: But what I will say now, which I think is

639
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:18,960
Speaker 3: huge for Barcelona, is Frankie Deong is finally healthy and

640
00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:21,720
Speaker 3: back into the lineup. He is somebody who can control

641
00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:25,480
Speaker 3: the pace and control the tempo of a match better

642
00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:28,800
Speaker 3: than most midfielders in the entire world. So him being

643
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:33,240
Speaker 3: in the team it makes Barcelona much much better in

644
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:37,840
Speaker 3: build up play and is quite frankly, they're less seceptable

645
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 3: to those transition type attacks when they're playing Gundagan, Gabby

646
00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:42,680
Speaker 3: and Romeu trying to build.

647
00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:42,880
Speaker 5: Up through that.

648
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:47,880
Speaker 3: So it's a decent situation here for Barcelona. Now, now

649
00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:50,000
Speaker 3: I don't think they're going to go and you know,

650
00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:53,640
Speaker 3: suddenly just start breaking down Portos low block. It's very

651
00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:56,040
Speaker 3: interesting though, Mike, because these two teams are tied with

652
00:32:56,160 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 3: the same goal differential in this curt so things will

653
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:05,240
Speaker 3: get wonky on the final day. We'll see.

654
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 2: Porto wins.

655
00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 3: I gotta win. Excuse me, but you know Portso had

656
00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:16,760
Speaker 3: a pretty bad showing right before the international break, giving

657
00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:20,600
Speaker 3: up over two expected goals to Victoria and uh in Portugal,

658
00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 3: but again, nobody's created. Barcelona is the only team that's

659
00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:26,720
Speaker 3: carried over one expected goal against them in this group,

660
00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:29,000
Speaker 3: so the defense is still there. They're going to play

661
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:31,280
Speaker 3: the four to four to two passive little block, So

662
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:32,960
Speaker 3: I do like under two and a half goals of

663
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 3: plus one twenty one. Thing to look out for, Verstagen

664
00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 3: is questionable for this match. From everything that I've read,

665
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:42,120
Speaker 3: it looks like that they were just saving him, like

666
00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:44,000
Speaker 3: they didn't pla him against Viacano and looks like they

667
00:33:44,040 --> 00:33:46,080
Speaker 3: were saving him for this match, which would obviously be

668
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:48,800
Speaker 3: massive because the drop off between him and the backup

669
00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:53,080
Speaker 3: keeper is pretty big. So yeah, I do like under

670
00:33:53,080 --> 00:33:56,440
Speaker 3: two and a half goals at plus one twenty. I

671
00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 3: would love three. I don't know if we're getting there,

672
00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:00,480
Speaker 3: but I think Deong being in the in the team

673
00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:03,920
Speaker 3: is huge for Barcelona and slowing down the temple of

674
00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:06,120
Speaker 3: this match. And I think you'll, like Camthon said, you're

675
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:07,680
Speaker 3: just going to see a lot of stale.

676
00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:08,239
Speaker 5: Possession in this one.

677
00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:13,000
Speaker 4: Okay, let's wrap up Tuesday with a quick quick look

678
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:15,400
Speaker 4: at Shocktar and Antwerp.

679
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:20,200
Speaker 1: Shocktar is nominally still alive in this group.

680
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:23,400
Speaker 4: They are minus one of six hosting Antwerp plus two

681
00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:27,080
Speaker 4: eighty and the draws plus two sixty, and then Young

682
00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:30,239
Speaker 4: Boys and Red Star Belgrade, with Young Boys as a

683
00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:32,480
Speaker 4: plus one oh five favorite in Belgrade traveling at plus

684
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:36,200
Speaker 4: two thirty. That's a Europa League decider, which is a

685
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:39,840
Speaker 4: big deal for those two teams. Anything on either of

686
00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:42,320
Speaker 4: these two matches bj Red.

687
00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:45,000
Speaker 3: Star, Red Star, Red Star, Red Star. This is a

688
00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:47,920
Speaker 3: crazy line. I don't get this at all. The previous

689
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:52,680
Speaker 3: match was pretty chaotic, very back and forth, two point

690
00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:54,839
Speaker 3: six expected goals created between the two two or both

691
00:34:54,840 --> 00:34:58,879
Speaker 3: teams created two point six expected goals, but Red Star

692
00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:02,000
Speaker 3: head two goals called out dude off sides. One was

693
00:35:02,040 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 3: by a freaking tonail and for whatever reason, Young Boys

694
00:35:05,200 --> 00:35:08,279
Speaker 3: was playing an incredibly high line against them, and Red

695
00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:11,400
Speaker 3: Star is a team that can hit you quickly. In transition.

696
00:35:11,480 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 3: They showed that against City. They showed that against Lipstake,

697
00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:15,839
Speaker 3: putting up over one expected gole in both of those

698
00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:20,880
Speaker 3: matches as well. And from a mathematical perspective, nobody is

699
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:24,239
Speaker 3: overperforming more in Europe than Young Boys right now. They

700
00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:27,240
Speaker 3: have a plus one point two to actual goal differential

701
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:30,280
Speaker 3: in the Swiss Super League. Expected goal differential of plus

702
00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:34,560
Speaker 3: point zero six. It is insane how much they're are performing.

703
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:38,600
Speaker 3: Red Star continually putting up great expected goals numbers in Serbia, oh,

704
00:35:38,760 --> 00:35:42,359
Speaker 3: averaging over two expected goals per ninety So I don't

705
00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 3: get this one. I mean, these two countries from a

706
00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:49,799
Speaker 3: UAF COVID efficient perspective are pretty even. So if I'm

707
00:35:49,840 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 3: getting a team that, essentially by underlying numbers performing over

708
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:56,759
Speaker 3: a goal better than the other, I have to take

709
00:35:56,760 --> 00:35:58,440
Speaker 3: them plus a half of minus one thirty. And I'm

710
00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 3: gonna be on the money line as well, because they

711
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:02,480
Speaker 3: were the better team in the first leg. I mean,

712
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:04,759
Speaker 3: young boys had a penalty in there, and it was

713
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:07,640
Speaker 3: basically just one transition opportunity to they scored on. They

714
00:36:07,680 --> 00:36:09,479
Speaker 3: had a couple other chances late when they were already

715
00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:12,719
Speaker 3: up to one, but Red Star Wars by far the

716
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:15,239
Speaker 3: better team. So I like them plus a half in

717
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:17,399
Speaker 3: minus one thirty and then also on the money line.

718
00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:23,279
Speaker 4: All right, and now we'll go on to Wednesday, which

719
00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:26,640
Speaker 4: looks like a much more betting friendly slate. But before

720
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:29,919
Speaker 4: we do that, a word from our friends at Caldera Lab.

721
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:33,479
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722
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723
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724
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730
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:59,360
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731
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:04,000
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732
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739
00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:24,880
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740
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741
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744
00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:40,000
Speaker 1: You know what that means.

745
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:45,040
Speaker 4: We're going to Turkey Boys and we're taking Manchester United

746
00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:50,759
Speaker 4: with us. We'll talk more about that Everden match on

747
00:37:52,080 --> 00:37:53,320
Speaker 4: the Thursday morning episode.

748
00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:57,920
Speaker 2: Three different people will sent me the XG Philosophy tweet

749
00:37:57,920 --> 00:38:01,439
Speaker 2: at halftime, which was like ever to zero one point

750
00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:06,040
Speaker 2: x G Man United one zero point zero four x G.

751
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:10,680
Speaker 2: And I'm like that sounds about right. Yeah and uh yeah,

752
00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:10,960
Speaker 2: you know.

753
00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:14,600
Speaker 1: Good teams finished, but the motivational spot of the year and.

754
00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:17,680
Speaker 2: They were dead in four minutes because Garnacho scored a galazzo.

755
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:19,279
Speaker 2: It was fun.

756
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:21,200
Speaker 4: But you know what this is.

757
00:38:21,600 --> 00:38:23,319
Speaker 2: You know, if you follow us in the app BJ

758
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:26,120
Speaker 2: and I bet this like weeks ago because for some

759
00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:29,239
Speaker 2: odd reason United opened even money that is no longer

760
00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:33,200
Speaker 2: the line. They are now an underdog. I don't really

761
00:38:33,239 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 2: have a ton to say about this match that I

762
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:37,120
Speaker 2: haven't already said about gallatass Rye and Man United on

763
00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:39,120
Speaker 2: every episode of the show. Every time you do the

764
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:43,719
Speaker 2: Champions League pod, you know where my opinion is. For

765
00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:47,440
Speaker 2: the sake of brevity, Welcome to hell. Man United and

766
00:38:47,600 --> 00:38:52,279
Speaker 2: Marcus Rashford is suspended. Hoyland is doubtful, So like that's

767
00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:55,239
Speaker 2: a problem, but it's not a problem if Garnacho does

768
00:38:55,280 --> 00:38:58,920
Speaker 2: another bike again. So keep that in mind for your

769
00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:01,160
Speaker 2: betting habits. You know, the team scores a bike against you,

770
00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 2: you're probably not gonna win. But yeah, I mean, Gala's

771
00:39:04,360 --> 00:39:06,720
Speaker 2: been better in this group. They have better underline numbers,

772
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:10,440
Speaker 2: they're healthier, and they're at home and it's a hell

773
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:11,160
Speaker 2: of a place to play.

774
00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:13,320
Speaker 3: So iron found that.

775
00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:15,200
Speaker 2: I still think they're fine. As as a pick up,

776
00:39:15,239 --> 00:39:17,040
Speaker 2: I wouldn't lay juice, but like as a pickup, I

777
00:39:17,160 --> 00:39:17,400
Speaker 2: like them.

778
00:39:17,840 --> 00:39:20,279
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't think that there's really much more we

779
00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:22,600
Speaker 4: need to add. We've we've talked about It's it's weird

780
00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:25,360
Speaker 4: we've kind of talked about this match even though we

781
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 4: were talking about other matches, Uh, whether it's Byron versus

782
00:39:29,040 --> 00:39:32,279
Speaker 4: Galatass or Eye or uh when they played Copenhagen, it

783
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:34,799
Speaker 4: was like we were just basically talking about their their

784
00:39:34,840 --> 00:39:36,280
Speaker 4: two matches against Man United.

785
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:39,399
Speaker 2: Both teams to score first half.

786
00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:41,000
Speaker 1: Maybe, Yeah, I mean, it's gonna get nuts.

787
00:39:41,080 --> 00:39:44,160
Speaker 4: I think that you can feel pretty pretty confident that

788
00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:48,480
Speaker 4: this one just should go in a million different directions.

789
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:51,239
Speaker 3: That's why like over three goals even money. I think

790
00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:56,360
Speaker 3: it's so even without Rashford. I mean, this match devolved

791
00:39:56,360 --> 00:39:59,600
Speaker 3: into complete chaos right away at Old Trafford, and I

792
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:02,040
Speaker 3: don't see a scenario of how it's not going to

793
00:40:02,120 --> 00:40:07,800
Speaker 3: do that once again. Because United continually struggles defending long balls,

794
00:40:07,920 --> 00:40:10,919
Speaker 3: it's been a problem and galataster I was just able

795
00:40:11,000 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 3: to repeatedly throw one ball long ball out to the

796
00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:16,600
Speaker 3: white side of the pitch and just completely dice through

797
00:40:16,640 --> 00:40:21,120
Speaker 3: whatever defensive pressing structure that United had. United has no

798
00:40:21,200 --> 00:40:23,920
Speaker 3: game control because they have no midfielders right now, so

799
00:40:24,160 --> 00:40:27,359
Speaker 3: it's going to create a very back and forth, transitional

800
00:40:27,719 --> 00:40:32,320
Speaker 3: open match. And yes, even without Rashford, even without Hoyland,

801
00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:37,680
Speaker 3: I do think that Martial and Garnacho can provide enough

802
00:40:37,800 --> 00:40:41,200
Speaker 3: offensive threat to get out of galatast right defense that

803
00:40:41,280 --> 00:40:43,359
Speaker 3: has still been really bad. I know we love them,

804
00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:46,040
Speaker 3: but their defense has been terrible. They've allowed over two

805
00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:49,400
Speaker 3: expected goals to Byron in both meetings and what over

806
00:40:49,480 --> 00:40:53,040
Speaker 3: two expected goals to United in the previous meeting as well,

807
00:40:53,160 --> 00:40:55,640
Speaker 3: So over three and even money for me, I think

808
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:56,680
Speaker 3: it's far too short.

809
00:40:57,360 --> 00:41:01,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that it's it's a fun game too.

810
00:41:02,880 --> 00:41:06,280
Speaker 4: First of all, I like I like our boys Galatasaray.

811
00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:09,799
Speaker 4: I think it's also a fun game to live bet.

812
00:41:10,480 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 4: I think that the over is just always going to

813
00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:16,080
Speaker 4: be in play, and I should also set up just

814
00:41:16,640 --> 00:41:20,080
Speaker 4: the way that this this group is. Oh, it's just

815
00:41:20,200 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 4: so perfectly set up for disappointment for either US or

816
00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:28,359
Speaker 4: Manchester United that Byron's ran away with it. They're four

817
00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:30,560
Speaker 4: oh oh or twelve points, so they don't matter to us.

818
00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:36,680
Speaker 4: The Copenhagen, fresh off of their ridiculous win against United,

819
00:41:36,880 --> 00:41:39,719
Speaker 4: are four points, so they're technically in second, but they're

820
00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:43,600
Speaker 4: tied with Galatasaraye and then United at three, so any

821
00:41:43,760 --> 00:41:47,920
Speaker 4: of these three teams could easily get through. And it's

822
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:52,600
Speaker 4: a it's a must win for United like it is.

823
00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:55,840
Speaker 4: They're the team that has to to deal with Byron

824
00:41:55,920 --> 00:41:58,279
Speaker 4: at the h in the final matchday. And I know

825
00:41:58,400 --> 00:42:02,640
Speaker 4: it's a dead rubber for Iron because they're they're through, but.

826
00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:06,440
Speaker 3: They also have this really long wind streak though going

827
00:42:06,520 --> 00:42:08,800
Speaker 3: on that, I don't think they're gonna want to end Michael,

828
00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:13,840
Speaker 3: that's the problem. And if you're telling if they have

829
00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:17,160
Speaker 3: an opportunity to knock out United, yeah, completely this competition

830
00:42:17,239 --> 00:42:17,880
Speaker 3: they're going to do.

831
00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:19,480
Speaker 1: It at Old Trafford.

832
00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:21,120
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, they'll do it.

833
00:42:21,920 --> 00:42:23,600
Speaker 3: You don't think, Harry Kanel, we would have to do it.

834
00:42:23,719 --> 00:42:26,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, right, it's all right, so we know where we're

835
00:42:26,640 --> 00:42:29,000
Speaker 1: going that one. Yeah, all right, let's go to Byron.

836
00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:33,880
Speaker 1: Actually I'm tempted by Copenhagen here. I don't want to

837
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:34,080
Speaker 1: do it.

838
00:42:34,400 --> 00:42:39,560
Speaker 2: Number of things. The number implies rotation. I mean Byron

839
00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:43,279
Speaker 2: laid to to Copenhagen on the road and like they

840
00:42:43,320 --> 00:42:45,040
Speaker 2: played bad, and like you have to downgrade them. And

841
00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:49,400
Speaker 2: we've obviously upgraded Copenhagen considerably since then, But like, is

842
00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 2: it enough that now we're like two is too much?

843
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:55,520
Speaker 2: At home? I don't know who's playing for Kane sits then, yeah,

844
00:42:55,560 --> 00:42:57,799
Speaker 2: I love to is gonna sit?

845
00:42:58,120 --> 00:42:59,080
Speaker 1: Why would he play like this?

846
00:42:59,239 --> 00:42:59,279
Speaker 5: Is?

847
00:42:59,560 --> 00:43:01,360
Speaker 4: These are the things that I because he's having No,

848
00:43:01,560 --> 00:43:04,120
Speaker 4: he never get that. But in my it's like the

849
00:43:04,200 --> 00:43:06,560
Speaker 4: theory of the irrational actor. I'm trying to get into.

850
00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:10,240
Speaker 4: In my mind, I think it's asinine to play anybody.

851
00:43:10,920 --> 00:43:12,160
Speaker 4: Anybody in this game.

852
00:43:12,400 --> 00:43:16,760
Speaker 2: Never sat the dead rubbers for spreading Why why he's

853
00:43:16,760 --> 00:43:17,640
Speaker 2: a professional.

854
00:43:18,960 --> 00:43:19,520
Speaker 1: Doesn't matter.

855
00:43:19,960 --> 00:43:20,680
Speaker 2: They don't rotate.

856
00:43:20,920 --> 00:43:24,400
Speaker 3: People doesn't know. It's not Harry park two BILLIYT on

857
00:43:24,440 --> 00:43:26,560
Speaker 3: the weekend. They're not going to rotate, Like what's the

858
00:43:26,560 --> 00:43:27,240
Speaker 3: point of rotating?

859
00:43:27,280 --> 00:43:30,120
Speaker 2: They may rotate like the wingers, but it's like, oh,

860
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:33,080
Speaker 2: we're not going to play sonne Ganabri. We're gonna play

861
00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:36,600
Speaker 2: Cooman and Musiala. And I'm like, well, wait a minute, Yeah,

862
00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:40,480
Speaker 2: who's better? Are we sure? Like, oh, we're gonna play

863
00:43:40,520 --> 00:43:43,320
Speaker 2: them in half? Like no, I get I can't. I

864
00:43:43,400 --> 00:43:45,640
Speaker 2: can't get to this number. I'm tempted to delay it.

865
00:43:45,640 --> 00:43:47,080
Speaker 2: If Byron puts out a good team, all lay it,

866
00:43:48,000 --> 00:43:50,279
Speaker 2: maybe maybe look live and see, like watch the first

867
00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:52,359
Speaker 2: ten minutes, see how much they seem to care.

868
00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:55,880
Speaker 3: Well, let's I mean the question is is can what

869
00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:58,800
Speaker 3: Because Copenanga is really good in their defensive block against

870
00:43:58,840 --> 00:44:00,880
Speaker 3: Byron in the previous one, but that is that Copenhagen,

871
00:44:01,080 --> 00:44:03,440
Speaker 3: and is that repeatable in this one? Given what I

872
00:44:03,520 --> 00:44:05,759
Speaker 3: saw on the first forty Manchikins Manchester United, I do

873
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:08,560
Speaker 3: not think it is at all because it did destroy them,

874
00:44:08,719 --> 00:44:09,759
Speaker 3: So uh.

875
00:44:11,440 --> 00:44:12,760
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm just passing whatever.

876
00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:14,840
Speaker 2: I just feel like we like watched Copenhagen have a

877
00:44:14,880 --> 00:44:17,640
Speaker 2: couple of good matches and we were like yes, like

878
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:20,919
Speaker 2: like there, we're all in now and like they're still

879
00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:23,560
Speaker 2: not great and they still would have lost. We were

880
00:44:23,600 --> 00:44:25,919
Speaker 2: on the wrong side in the United match one hundred percent. Yeah,

881
00:44:26,080 --> 00:44:29,239
Speaker 2: and we got lucky that they got the red card

882
00:44:29,239 --> 00:44:33,040
Speaker 2: and then imploded. But like this defense is still pretty bad.

883
00:44:33,320 --> 00:44:37,319
Speaker 2: Like I think I'm gonna wait and then look live

884
00:44:37,400 --> 00:44:39,160
Speaker 2: and then like fifteen minutes and if it's nil nil,

885
00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:41,040
Speaker 2: but like Byron seems to be up for it, like

886
00:44:41,200 --> 00:44:42,680
Speaker 2: lay the goal in a quarter a goal and a

887
00:44:42,680 --> 00:44:44,120
Speaker 2: half live.

888
00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:45,080
Speaker 1: I don't know.

889
00:44:45,360 --> 00:44:47,520
Speaker 4: I think I'm gonna play the Copenhagen money line just

890
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:49,359
Speaker 4: sprinkle because I just don't.

891
00:44:49,600 --> 00:44:49,879
Speaker 1: I don't.

892
00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:52,600
Speaker 3: Copenhagen is the only team to hold Byron under one

893
00:44:52,640 --> 00:44:53,600
Speaker 3: expected all this season.

894
00:44:54,320 --> 00:44:56,799
Speaker 1: I just think they've they've been good.

895
00:44:56,800 --> 00:44:57,120
Speaker 4: Enough that.

896
00:44:58,800 --> 00:45:02,040
Speaker 3: Actually that's not true with bj oh Starbrook and forgot

897
00:45:02,200 --> 00:45:05,880
Speaker 3: my bad, Yeah, I totally forgot.

898
00:45:07,520 --> 00:45:10,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's just I guess maybe and maybe I'm just

899
00:45:10,080 --> 00:45:13,560
Speaker 4: reading into too much that this game just means absolutely

900
00:45:13,600 --> 00:45:14,200
Speaker 4: nothing to bind it.

901
00:45:14,280 --> 00:45:17,800
Speaker 3: But yeah, what's the wind streak at it? What like

902
00:45:17,920 --> 00:45:20,880
Speaker 3: eighteen right now? Like their last draw was against Athletico

903
00:45:21,040 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 3: like four years ago in the group stage.

904
00:45:22,760 --> 00:45:25,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, so we were no, no, didn't they tie like

905
00:45:26,440 --> 00:45:27,320
Speaker 2: twenty twenty one.

906
00:45:28,920 --> 00:45:29,560
Speaker 3: Against Athletic.

907
00:45:29,960 --> 00:45:32,000
Speaker 2: Maybe they maybe they lost the XG but won the match.

908
00:45:32,040 --> 00:45:33,239
Speaker 2: It was one of those It was one of those

909
00:45:33,280 --> 00:45:37,040
Speaker 2: games where I like complained about it was a lot

910
00:45:37,160 --> 00:45:40,920
Speaker 2: in what really matters. Yeah, my friend, that I used

911
00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:43,560
Speaker 2: to bet x G and not actual goals. Those are

912
00:45:43,560 --> 00:45:43,919
Speaker 2: the days.

913
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:44,319
Speaker 1: Uh.

914
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:50,359
Speaker 2: Yes, we would use my projections to like create an

915
00:45:50,400 --> 00:45:53,160
Speaker 2: expected gold differential and then bet the XG accordingly in

916
00:45:53,200 --> 00:45:56,440
Speaker 2: a single game against one another. It was truly incredible

917
00:45:56,480 --> 00:45:57,200
Speaker 2: betting experience.

918
00:45:58,120 --> 00:45:58,640
Speaker 1: Some life.

919
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:05,520
Speaker 4: You're living, all right, group cee Real Madrid top of

920
00:46:05,560 --> 00:46:10,000
Speaker 4: the table like their friends Bayern Munich four O n

921
00:46:10,080 --> 00:46:15,560
Speaker 4: O twelve points through Uh, they are hosting Napoli, who

922
00:46:16,440 --> 00:46:19,200
Speaker 4: ah can basically clinch it as well.

923
00:46:21,520 --> 00:46:23,560
Speaker 1: These this group is is pretty boring as well.

924
00:46:24,040 --> 00:46:26,439
Speaker 4: Madrid is is minus one twenty, Napoli plus three twenty

925
00:46:26,520 --> 00:46:29,080
Speaker 4: on the road and the draws plus two seventy five.

926
00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:35,480
Speaker 4: Like once again, I get that Real Madrid wants to

927
00:46:35,760 --> 00:46:41,279
Speaker 4: top the group and that so you can squint and

928
00:46:41,440 --> 00:46:43,839
Speaker 4: see some steaks for them at this game. They're at home,

929
00:46:44,880 --> 00:46:49,600
Speaker 4: a big club coming into town. I love Real Madrid,

930
00:46:49,600 --> 00:46:53,239
Speaker 4: I love Carlo Angelotti. I'm I would love to meet

931
00:46:53,280 --> 00:46:57,680
Speaker 4: somebody who's who's laying this price with them considering the situation.

932
00:46:57,719 --> 00:47:00,319
Speaker 2: The people probably real at home on the So.

933
00:47:00,360 --> 00:47:00,879
Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying.

934
00:47:00,920 --> 00:47:01,960
Speaker 4: I want to hear them, and I don't want to

935
00:47:02,000 --> 00:47:04,600
Speaker 4: say why, and they'll say and what would their argument be?

936
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:08,160
Speaker 4: Real Madrid at home only minus one twenty like that?

937
00:47:09,520 --> 00:47:14,120
Speaker 1: That's to me, it's crazy. Why shouldn't I not bet?

938
00:47:15,440 --> 00:47:17,640
Speaker 2: It was a similar situation last year they were playing

939
00:47:17,719 --> 00:47:20,640
Speaker 2: Leipzig on the road. That was on the road, but

940
00:47:20,719 --> 00:47:22,439
Speaker 2: like they went to Leipsig in like a pretty flat spot.

941
00:47:22,480 --> 00:47:26,839
Speaker 2: The group was kind of decided, and uh, they were

942
00:47:27,000 --> 00:47:28,919
Speaker 2: just bad. Like they came out and got pumped early

943
00:47:29,040 --> 00:47:30,719
Speaker 2: and then like fought their way back into the match.

944
00:47:31,200 --> 00:47:34,200
Speaker 2: I kind of think this is similar. Napoli is fully healthy, right,

945
00:47:34,239 --> 00:47:38,440
Speaker 2: Osaman cabart Skelia played over the weekend, so that's huge.

946
00:47:39,600 --> 00:47:43,000
Speaker 2: Like this Real Madrid team have been notorious slow starters,

947
00:47:43,680 --> 00:47:47,680
Speaker 2: they don't defend anybody. Valencia was destroying them two weeks ago.

948
00:47:47,719 --> 00:47:49,080
Speaker 2: I didn't catch any of the Cadiz match.

949
00:47:49,120 --> 00:47:49,319
Speaker 1: Today.

950
00:47:49,360 --> 00:47:51,239
Speaker 2: I haven't even looked at the box score yet, but

951
00:47:51,680 --> 00:47:53,960
Speaker 2: I just love Napoli team put all over first half

952
00:47:54,040 --> 00:47:56,359
Speaker 2: here at plus one forty. I think it's just short.

953
00:47:56,800 --> 00:48:01,440
Speaker 2: I think at worst, like the luck box real Madrid attack,

954
00:48:01,600 --> 00:48:03,399
Speaker 2: the good attack shows up and they scored a couple

955
00:48:03,440 --> 00:48:05,319
Speaker 2: of goals and like they're competitive and that they win

956
00:48:05,440 --> 00:48:08,239
Speaker 2: this because Napoli maybe isn't quite as good defensively as

957
00:48:08,280 --> 00:48:12,160
Speaker 2: we thought, but Napoli scoring on this team and I

958
00:48:12,200 --> 00:48:15,160
Speaker 2: think they could do it often. So like I like

959
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:17,960
Speaker 2: the boys from Naples first F team total and I

960
00:48:18,040 --> 00:48:20,640
Speaker 2: did take some plus a half, but the numbers come

961
00:48:20,680 --> 00:48:24,360
Speaker 2: down a lot because of the venetious injury news and

962
00:48:24,560 --> 00:48:27,040
Speaker 2: Brahim Diaz also got hurt in warm ups today, so

963
00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:31,080
Speaker 2: I don't know if he'll be available. Not that he's

964
00:48:31,120 --> 00:48:33,279
Speaker 2: like a key player, but like he does matter a

965
00:48:33,360 --> 00:48:33,719
Speaker 2: little bit.

966
00:48:34,480 --> 00:48:36,279
Speaker 3: Can we talk about what happened with Napoli over the

967
00:48:36,280 --> 00:48:40,040
Speaker 3: international break because they sacked Rudy Garcia and they brought

968
00:48:40,160 --> 00:48:43,440
Speaker 3: in Walt Massari, which is like the Italian equivalent of

969
00:48:43,600 --> 00:48:47,000
Speaker 3: Roy Hodgson, like he is historically throughout his career been

970
00:48:47,040 --> 00:48:49,919
Speaker 3: a three five to two, low bloc transitional type coach,

971
00:48:49,960 --> 00:48:53,000
Speaker 3: which is just not how Napoli plays at all.

972
00:48:53,120 --> 00:48:53,239
Speaker 5: Now.

973
00:48:53,320 --> 00:48:56,600
Speaker 3: Today against this weekend against Atlanta, they won two to

974
00:48:56,600 --> 00:48:58,520
Speaker 3: one and it seemed like it was four three three

975
00:48:59,040 --> 00:49:01,000
Speaker 3: typical formation. Everything seemed to be the same, and I

976
00:49:01,040 --> 00:49:02,839
Speaker 3: didn't catch the match. How I'm interested to go back

977
00:49:02,840 --> 00:49:05,080
Speaker 3: and watch the highlights or rewatch the match to see

978
00:49:05,120 --> 00:49:09,000
Speaker 3: what happened. But things could change at Napoli pretty drastically

979
00:49:09,040 --> 00:49:12,000
Speaker 3: from a tactical perspective. That makes me a little bit

980
00:49:12,040 --> 00:49:16,239
Speaker 3: worried about them going forward. We'll see it. Could you

981
00:49:16,280 --> 00:49:18,040
Speaker 3: could just say, you know, we're going to continue on

982
00:49:18,080 --> 00:49:22,200
Speaker 3: with what Spiletti and Rude Garcia were trying to accomplish.

983
00:49:22,320 --> 00:49:25,880
Speaker 3: But from a philosophy standpoint, it is a very very

984
00:49:26,000 --> 00:49:30,200
Speaker 3: different approach from Napoli. So we'll see if it continues.

985
00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:32,759
Speaker 3: But yeah, it's it's definitely.

986
00:49:32,480 --> 00:49:33,680
Speaker 5: Interesting to say the least.

987
00:49:34,040 --> 00:49:36,680
Speaker 4: And yeah, so, like I said, Madrid out the top

988
00:49:36,680 --> 00:49:39,719
Speaker 4: of the table at twelve points, Napoli pretty safely and

989
00:49:39,800 --> 00:49:44,120
Speaker 4: second at seven, Braga and Unya and Berlin will likely

990
00:49:44,239 --> 00:49:48,759
Speaker 4: be fighting it out for Europa League. Braga, if they

991
00:49:48,840 --> 00:49:50,839
Speaker 4: want to squint really hard, can say, oh, we still

992
00:49:50,880 --> 00:49:54,319
Speaker 4: have a chance, We're still alive. But to stay alive,

993
00:49:54,400 --> 00:49:58,200
Speaker 4: they'll have to beat Unyan. They're hosting as a plus

994
00:49:58,239 --> 00:50:02,040
Speaker 4: one twenty favorite. Unyan traveling plus two ten and the

995
00:50:02,160 --> 00:50:07,399
Speaker 4: draw is plus two sixty. I've got absolutely nothing here.

996
00:50:07,640 --> 00:50:10,600
Speaker 4: Anthony also got absolutely nothing.

997
00:50:10,640 --> 00:50:13,040
Speaker 2: I didn't bet the first leg. It was a crazy

998
00:50:13,120 --> 00:50:15,640
Speaker 2: back and forth, didn't really have any strong takeaways. Not

999
00:50:15,760 --> 00:50:18,520
Speaker 2: betting this leg. Also think of Unyan, like do they

1000
00:50:18,560 --> 00:50:18,960
Speaker 2: punt here?

1001
00:50:19,200 --> 00:50:20,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know.

1002
00:50:20,760 --> 00:50:22,640
Speaker 2: If they have Byron this weekend, I don't know they.

1003
00:50:22,680 --> 00:50:24,319
Speaker 4: I think they'd want to get into the Europa League.

1004
00:50:24,600 --> 00:50:26,920
Speaker 4: Beja anything here Unyan and Braga.

1005
00:50:27,480 --> 00:50:29,399
Speaker 3: No, I felt very lucky to win the first leg

1006
00:50:29,560 --> 00:50:32,319
Speaker 3: with Braga against Unyan Blenn, so I'm going.

1007
00:50:32,280 --> 00:50:34,759
Speaker 1: To take take your money and run and run.

1008
00:50:34,880 --> 00:50:36,680
Speaker 3: I do show a little bit of value on Braga,

1009
00:50:37,040 --> 00:50:40,600
Speaker 3: but it's essentially going to be Braga's a ball circulation

1010
00:50:40,719 --> 00:50:44,200
Speaker 3: team going against what should be a three five to

1011
00:50:44,200 --> 00:50:45,080
Speaker 3: two h block.

1012
00:50:44,920 --> 00:50:48,200
Speaker 5: Or I'm not really sure what Uon's really going to play.

1013
00:50:48,080 --> 00:50:48,359
Speaker 2: All right.

1014
00:50:48,400 --> 00:50:50,920
Speaker 3: Peter Fisher, by the way, Yeah, that's what I'm saying, Like, no, no,

1015
00:50:51,040 --> 00:50:54,840
Speaker 3: race Fisher. They tried to they tried to have a

1016
00:50:54,920 --> 00:50:58,960
Speaker 3: Raoul Real Madrid Castilla and he said no.

1017
00:50:59,440 --> 00:51:02,319
Speaker 5: So I don't really know what they're gonna do at

1018
00:51:02,360 --> 00:51:04,360
Speaker 5: this point, so I'd like to pass.

1019
00:51:06,680 --> 00:51:10,280
Speaker 4: We could move on then to another group and another

1020
00:51:10,360 --> 00:51:15,400
Speaker 4: team that has kept PJ up at night. That's Sevilla.

1021
00:51:16,440 --> 00:51:19,359
Speaker 4: They are still a live skin of their teeth here.

1022
00:51:19,640 --> 00:51:22,719
Speaker 4: They're plus one sixty at home hosting PSV plus one

1023
00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:23,239
Speaker 4: sixty two.

1024
00:51:23,520 --> 00:51:26,200
Speaker 1: So essentially pick them here and the draw is plus

1025
00:51:26,280 --> 00:51:26,840
Speaker 1: two fifty.

1026
00:51:26,880 --> 00:51:30,680
Speaker 4: The way this group sets up Arsenal the top nine points,

1027
00:51:31,160 --> 00:51:34,400
Speaker 4: PSV and Lens tied at five, and then Sevilla propping

1028
00:51:34,440 --> 00:51:37,279
Speaker 4: it up on two points another one. I don't really

1029
00:51:37,680 --> 00:51:42,320
Speaker 4: have much of an interest though, BJ. You are leaning

1030
00:51:42,480 --> 00:51:43,960
Speaker 4: towards the wayside.

1031
00:51:44,440 --> 00:51:44,640
Speaker 5: Yeah.

1032
00:51:44,719 --> 00:51:46,719
Speaker 3: I like PSV Dronal bed at plus one oh five.

1033
00:51:46,880 --> 00:51:49,560
Speaker 3: I don't really understand why they're underdogs on the road

1034
00:51:49,600 --> 00:51:54,000
Speaker 3: here against the SIBA. In case people haven't noticed, PSV

1035
00:51:54,239 --> 00:51:57,800
Speaker 3: is a perfect thirteen for thirteen the air to BSA.

1036
00:51:58,760 --> 00:52:01,759
Speaker 3: They are averaging close to three non penalty expected goals

1037
00:52:01,760 --> 00:52:06,239
Speaker 3: for ninety minutes. And what Peter Boss has done with

1038
00:52:06,400 --> 00:52:08,759
Speaker 3: this team is he's made them a much much better

1039
00:52:08,880 --> 00:52:12,839
Speaker 3: pressing team. Their pass per defensive action has gone down significantly,

1040
00:52:13,160 --> 00:52:15,000
Speaker 3: they have more high turnovers, and I get that they

1041
00:52:15,040 --> 00:52:17,520
Speaker 3: have not played very difficult competition and they have a

1042
00:52:17,680 --> 00:52:20,640
Speaker 3: huge match against Yanid coming up on the weekend. But

1043
00:52:21,760 --> 00:52:26,080
Speaker 3: in the first meeting between Sevilla, they kind of destroyed them.

1044
00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:28,080
Speaker 3: They controlled the match, they tilted the field on them

1045
00:52:28,120 --> 00:52:30,640
Speaker 3: at seventy three percent, won the expected goals battle two

1046
00:52:30,640 --> 00:52:35,080
Speaker 3: point six to one point three. And I just I

1047
00:52:35,160 --> 00:52:36,960
Speaker 3: don't know what the market sees in the Seville team,

1048
00:52:37,000 --> 00:52:39,239
Speaker 3: and I don't know why they're not pricing them where

1049
00:52:39,280 --> 00:52:41,560
Speaker 3: they should be because of their underlying metrics. I mean,

1050
00:52:41,640 --> 00:52:45,359
Speaker 3: they are still a terrible defensive team in Spain. They

1051
00:52:45,640 --> 00:52:50,000
Speaker 3: are sitting seventeenth and non penalty expected goals allowed. They

1052
00:52:50,080 --> 00:52:52,800
Speaker 3: can't defend in transition, they can't defend and set defense.

1053
00:52:53,120 --> 00:52:55,840
Speaker 3: And what I found surprising though is Saville is actually

1054
00:52:55,840 --> 00:52:57,680
Speaker 3: the number one field till team in Spain right now.

1055
00:52:57,960 --> 00:53:00,640
Speaker 3: I did not know that, and so oh what has

1056
00:53:00,680 --> 00:53:02,439
Speaker 3: happened quite a bit is that they've had to defend

1057
00:53:02,480 --> 00:53:04,799
Speaker 3: and transition and they haven't been able to because other

1058
00:53:04,880 --> 00:53:07,760
Speaker 3: than Barcelona, they are the worst transition defense by final

1059
00:53:07,840 --> 00:53:11,400
Speaker 3: third to box entry conversion rate allowed. And what's happened

1060
00:53:11,480 --> 00:53:14,120
Speaker 3: when we come over here to the Champions League is

1061
00:53:14,200 --> 00:53:18,200
Speaker 3: that they've played teams like PSV and Arsenal who can

1062
00:53:18,239 --> 00:53:21,600
Speaker 3: control more possession and suddenly and then they have to

1063
00:53:21,680 --> 00:53:23,520
Speaker 3: sit and set defense, and they're not the ones tilt

1064
00:53:23,600 --> 00:53:26,760
Speaker 3: in the field. They struggled, They took one shot against

1065
00:53:26,840 --> 00:53:29,120
Speaker 3: Arsenal and they came in stoppage time in their last

1066
00:53:29,160 --> 00:53:32,399
Speaker 3: match in the Champions League. So I do love, though,

1067
00:53:32,840 --> 00:53:35,080
Speaker 3: when I'm on Twitter and people talk about this Sevia

1068
00:53:35,120 --> 00:53:38,280
Speaker 3: team and say that like there, I've heard European Royalty

1069
00:53:38,400 --> 00:53:41,560
Speaker 3: get thrown around and say that they're they're so difficult

1070
00:53:41,600 --> 00:53:43,360
Speaker 3: to play in Europe. I'd like people to keep peddling

1071
00:53:43,400 --> 00:53:46,520
Speaker 3: that narrative around so we can get better prices against them,

1072
00:53:46,520 --> 00:53:48,759
Speaker 3: because they are terrible and they're going to continue to

1073
00:53:48,800 --> 00:53:51,279
Speaker 3: be terrible. And we're on manager what like five in

1074
00:53:51,320 --> 00:53:53,879
Speaker 3: the last year and a half and things still aren't

1075
00:53:53,880 --> 00:53:56,279
Speaker 3: going well because they haven't won a match outside of

1076
00:53:56,320 --> 00:53:58,359
Speaker 3: the Copa del Rey against a team in the third

1077
00:53:58,400 --> 00:54:02,000
Speaker 3: division since September twenty third against Almeria, and they're at

1078
00:54:02,000 --> 00:54:05,399
Speaker 3: the bottom of the table. So PSV pick them plus

1079
00:54:05,480 --> 00:54:08,120
Speaker 3: one oh five should not be rown underdogs.

1080
00:54:07,719 --> 00:54:10,399
Speaker 1: At uh the other the other match of this group

1081
00:54:10,520 --> 00:54:11,720
Speaker 1: is Arsenal and Lens.

1082
00:54:12,440 --> 00:54:15,440
Speaker 4: Uh BJ your your gunners are laying minus three hundred

1083
00:54:15,480 --> 00:54:18,600
Speaker 4: at home, Lens traveling at seven to one and the

1084
00:54:18,719 --> 00:54:23,560
Speaker 4: draw is plus four point fifty. It's uh, it's square

1085
00:54:24,280 --> 00:54:26,359
Speaker 4: is Arsenal. Just are we just gonna be betting Arsenal

1086
00:54:26,520 --> 00:54:29,719
Speaker 4: unders until Wind unders until they until they get to

1087
00:54:29,920 --> 00:54:31,640
Speaker 4: one and a half and even at that point, are

1088
00:54:31,680 --> 00:54:32,560
Speaker 4: you still going to be doing it?

1089
00:54:33,600 --> 00:54:36,399
Speaker 2: I'm ashamed to say that I took Brentford Arsenal off

1090
00:54:36,480 --> 00:54:40,000
Speaker 2: the main screen and put the college game on because

1091
00:54:40,040 --> 00:54:42,360
Speaker 2: it was so painful to watch, and I put the

1092
00:54:42,480 --> 00:54:45,000
Speaker 2: I relegated Arsenal to the to the lapteme.

1093
00:54:44,680 --> 00:54:46,680
Speaker 3: Points top of the table.

1094
00:54:47,960 --> 00:54:54,240
Speaker 2: Luckbox. No, no, sir, I did see Scott will Scott

1095
00:54:54,239 --> 00:54:57,719
Speaker 2: Wilson XG charts after the game for He's an good

1096
00:54:57,800 --> 00:54:59,960
Speaker 2: Arsenal follow up you're a fan at Scott J. Willis,

1097
00:55:00,280 --> 00:55:03,000
Speaker 2: and I appreciate all the Arsenal fans going at him saying, well,

1098
00:55:03,040 --> 00:55:04,920
Speaker 2: how could you say we were lucky? We totally dominated

1099
00:55:04,960 --> 00:55:07,279
Speaker 2: the game except for the three really good chances we

1100
00:55:07,360 --> 00:55:14,239
Speaker 2: handed Brentford. I'm like, well, wait a minute, I mean, like,

1101
00:55:14,520 --> 00:55:17,360
Speaker 2: go back to the first match and like, this Lons

1102
00:55:17,360 --> 00:55:20,960
Speaker 2: team is still perfectly fine defensively. Their attacking numbers are

1103
00:55:21,040 --> 00:55:23,800
Speaker 2: pretty mediocre. They flewked a win against Arsenal in the

1104
00:55:23,800 --> 00:55:25,319
Speaker 2: game that probably should have been like a one to one.

1105
00:55:26,080 --> 00:55:29,320
Speaker 2: Both goals were just like insanely efficient quick strike transition

1106
00:55:29,360 --> 00:55:31,600
Speaker 2: from one, which like they're not something they're particularly great at.

1107
00:55:32,000 --> 00:55:35,040
Speaker 2: And Arsenal totals at three against like average attacking teams

1108
00:55:35,160 --> 00:55:39,440
Speaker 2: is just crazy. They're not scoring goals. Every attack is

1109
00:55:39,600 --> 00:55:42,600
Speaker 2: just circle the ball out wide, get it to Sokka

1110
00:55:42,960 --> 00:55:44,440
Speaker 2: and then hope he can do something. And like he

1111
00:55:44,520 --> 00:55:47,480
Speaker 2: had two really great balls, the ball to who ended

1112
00:55:47,520 --> 00:55:50,359
Speaker 2: up getting the head or Troussard that was vard Off.

1113
00:55:50,600 --> 00:55:52,160
Speaker 2: That ball was great over the top and then the

1114
00:55:52,200 --> 00:55:54,360
Speaker 2: ball to have its for the win, like great stuff.

1115
00:55:54,480 --> 00:55:57,480
Speaker 2: But they're getting nothing from Odegard and they're getting nothing

1116
00:55:57,520 --> 00:56:00,839
Speaker 2: from their midfield. And you know, Matt Tubby are one

1117
00:56:00,880 --> 00:56:03,680
Speaker 2: of our editors. An Arsenal fan was like, oh baby,

1118
00:56:03,719 --> 00:56:06,719
Speaker 2: we're starting Trossard in the midfield, like they're really going

1119
00:56:06,800 --> 00:56:09,200
Speaker 2: to turn up the attack today, and then they just didn't.

1120
00:56:09,280 --> 00:56:12,120
Speaker 2: I mean, they was just bad. They struggled their way

1121
00:56:12,160 --> 00:56:15,680
Speaker 2: to like one point two x G against Brentford. Ah,

1122
00:56:16,960 --> 00:56:20,120
Speaker 2: almost like three of the four best chances were like

1123
00:56:20,239 --> 00:56:23,879
Speaker 2: half half assed headers off of set pieces. So yeah,

1124
00:56:23,920 --> 00:56:25,879
Speaker 2: I just don't really think that their attacks that good.

1125
00:56:25,920 --> 00:56:26,880
Speaker 2: So you have blind nunders.

1126
00:56:27,080 --> 00:56:31,320
Speaker 3: Sure, yeah, three is too high. Uh, probably shouldn't be

1127
00:56:31,360 --> 00:56:31,799
Speaker 3: setting these.

1128
00:56:31,760 --> 00:56:34,040
Speaker 4: Totals at three, you're because you're what do you ask

1129
00:56:34,160 --> 00:56:36,200
Speaker 4: if you're setting the total of three, you're asking Arsenal

1130
00:56:36,280 --> 00:56:37,480
Speaker 4: to score at least twice?

1131
00:56:37,920 --> 00:56:41,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, And I need to go over for for

1132
00:56:42,120 --> 00:56:43,160
Speaker 3: to get to like four goals.

1133
00:56:43,520 --> 00:56:47,320
Speaker 4: I mean, right, there was and there was only what

1134
00:56:47,440 --> 00:56:50,080
Speaker 4: team wants to score three goals less than Arsenal right now?

1135
00:56:50,280 --> 00:56:52,839
Speaker 1: Like I feel like they'd be repulsed.

1136
00:56:54,040 --> 00:56:56,080
Speaker 3: In the last match, Like there was a mistake and

1137
00:56:56,160 --> 00:56:57,719
Speaker 3: build up and they had a great finish and then

1138
00:56:57,760 --> 00:57:00,239
Speaker 3: one transition attack and that was pretty much it. So

1139
00:57:01,080 --> 00:57:04,920
Speaker 3: I mean, Arsenal is just painfully controlling these matches and

1140
00:57:05,000 --> 00:57:08,279
Speaker 3: guess what it's working, Okay, they're they're like winning these

1141
00:57:08,360 --> 00:57:11,440
Speaker 3: matches one nothing and or like nothing.

1142
00:57:12,920 --> 00:57:15,640
Speaker 2: And a thirty eight match season with a bunch of

1143
00:57:15,680 --> 00:57:16,560
Speaker 2: one nills.

1144
00:57:16,560 --> 00:57:21,880
Speaker 3: Is but also putting up unreal defensive numbers also gets

1145
00:57:21,960 --> 00:57:25,280
Speaker 3: you to the point of winning the league, right because

1146
00:57:25,720 --> 00:57:28,120
Speaker 3: if you're a team like Tottenham right now who can't

1147
00:57:28,120 --> 00:57:32,280
Speaker 3: control a match to save their lives, then you're gonna

1148
00:57:32,280 --> 00:57:33,120
Speaker 3: fall off the table.

1149
00:57:33,640 --> 00:57:34,160
Speaker 2: I don't know, if it.

1150
00:57:36,800 --> 00:57:40,080
Speaker 3: Like it's it's painful to watch. I get it. But

1151
00:57:40,240 --> 00:57:42,320
Speaker 3: guess what, the defensive numbers are the best in Europe,

1152
00:57:42,440 --> 00:57:45,960
Speaker 3: so I don't I mean again, lonz could score here

1153
00:57:46,800 --> 00:57:49,440
Speaker 3: and that, but it's gonna have to be off of

1154
00:57:49,520 --> 00:57:51,600
Speaker 3: like half an expected goal because I don't see how

1155
00:57:51,880 --> 00:57:53,919
Speaker 3: you know Arsenal's gonna give up that big scoring chance.

1156
00:57:54,040 --> 00:57:58,080
Speaker 3: So uh under three minus one o six. Yeah, just

1157
00:57:58,160 --> 00:58:00,160
Speaker 3: keep betting these unders. And this kind of fel was

1158
00:58:00,280 --> 00:58:02,520
Speaker 3: very similar to the City Unders from when before they

1159
00:58:02,560 --> 00:58:05,360
Speaker 3: had Holland and they just didn't have a true striker.

1160
00:58:05,400 --> 00:58:07,640
Speaker 3: If funny enough, Gabril Jezeus was their striker.

1161
00:58:09,240 --> 00:58:12,200
Speaker 2: But you know what Gabby jay Zus said after the

1162
00:58:12,200 --> 00:58:12,760
Speaker 2: Brazil match.

1163
00:58:13,240 --> 00:58:14,080
Speaker 3: I did hear what he said?

1164
00:58:14,360 --> 00:58:15,800
Speaker 2: Scoring goals is not my strength.

1165
00:58:15,880 --> 00:58:16,400
Speaker 5: Yeah, I love that.

1166
00:58:16,760 --> 00:58:18,480
Speaker 2: That is epic self awareness.

1167
00:58:18,520 --> 00:58:20,040
Speaker 3: I don't know if he said scoring goals, he's just

1168
00:58:20,040 --> 00:58:22,000
Speaker 3: say goals or not his strengths. Maybe he doesn't like

1169
00:58:22,040 --> 00:58:24,520
Speaker 3: setting goals. Maybe someone like me, we just you know,

1170
00:58:25,200 --> 00:58:27,640
Speaker 3: doesn't like setting goals in life. Maybe like scoring.

1171
00:58:27,320 --> 00:58:29,200
Speaker 1: Goals, but you want to live in the present.

1172
00:58:29,760 --> 00:58:31,480
Speaker 3: Question was because I don't know what the question was.

1173
00:58:32,200 --> 00:58:34,800
Speaker 1: Day by day takes things one day at a time.

1174
00:58:34,880 --> 00:58:36,640
Speaker 2: I just make a lot of time. In translation.

1175
00:58:36,760 --> 00:58:38,280
Speaker 3: I mean, I could pick a goal to win every bet,

1176
00:58:38,320 --> 00:58:39,120
Speaker 3: but I'm not going to do it.

1177
00:58:40,240 --> 00:58:41,240
Speaker 1: Socia DoD time.

1178
00:58:41,840 --> 00:58:44,240
Speaker 4: They might just want to eat one eighty eight hosting

1179
00:58:44,360 --> 00:58:47,680
Speaker 4: Salzburg as you're traveling at five to one and the

1180
00:58:47,760 --> 00:58:48,920
Speaker 4: jaw is plus three thirty three.

1181
00:58:48,960 --> 00:58:50,439
Speaker 1: I've loved this Socia Dodd team.

1182
00:58:52,600 --> 00:58:55,040
Speaker 4: I've talked to talk them up to potentially win the

1183
00:58:55,080 --> 00:59:00,439
Speaker 4: group before we got before we got into the Champion League.

1184
00:59:00,720 --> 00:59:05,920
Speaker 4: I still love them, but I am always intrigued when

1185
00:59:06,320 --> 00:59:09,000
Speaker 4: we see Salisburg come up at these kind of prices,

1186
00:59:09,040 --> 00:59:12,040
Speaker 4: and especially when they're playing a team that maybe is

1187
00:59:12,080 --> 00:59:16,120
Speaker 4: a little inflated here and has no like yeah, they

1188
00:59:16,520 --> 00:59:18,800
Speaker 4: they're gonna want to top the group ahead of enter

1189
00:59:19,240 --> 00:59:22,240
Speaker 4: but like they're through, like they can kick their feet up.

1190
00:59:22,320 --> 00:59:22,680
Speaker 1: They want that.

1191
00:59:22,800 --> 00:59:29,320
Speaker 4: It's mission accomplished, accomplished for Sociodd. Meanwhile, Salisburg will will

1192
00:59:29,920 --> 00:59:32,640
Speaker 4: we want to get into Europa League ahead of the

1193
00:59:32,760 --> 00:59:34,520
Speaker 4: corpse that is Benfica.

1194
00:59:34,920 --> 00:59:37,920
Speaker 2: I don't This is the kind of match that steams

1195
00:59:38,000 --> 00:59:41,040
Speaker 2: down because Soci Dodd will rotate here, I think, and

1196
00:59:41,160 --> 00:59:43,000
Speaker 2: then we look at it and we're like, oh, we

1197
00:59:43,040 --> 00:59:45,040
Speaker 2: should have taken the plus one and then Soci Dodd

1198
00:59:45,080 --> 00:59:45,960
Speaker 2: wins like two Nils, and.

1199
00:59:46,600 --> 00:59:50,040
Speaker 4: I think I think Salsburg's live here like of any

1200
00:59:50,160 --> 00:59:52,880
Speaker 4: of all the big underdogs on the slate. So I'm

1201
00:59:52,920 --> 00:59:55,840
Speaker 4: talking like plus four hundred money line or higher. It's

1202
00:59:55,960 --> 00:59:56,640
Speaker 4: them by a mile.

1203
00:59:57,880 --> 00:59:59,560
Speaker 3: The final day in this group is going to be

1204
01:00:00,200 --> 01:00:03,440
Speaker 3: much more fun than this round because you have essentially

1205
01:00:03,520 --> 01:00:06,160
Speaker 3: Salzburg and Benefica going up against each other further Europa

1206
01:00:06,240 --> 01:00:09,080
Speaker 3: League and then in turn and maybe batting out for

1207
01:00:09,200 --> 01:00:13,040
Speaker 3: the first place, which could mean maybe for the group,

1208
01:00:13,120 --> 01:00:15,480
Speaker 3: but yeah, we'll see. I mean the Salsburg they've been in,

1209
01:00:16,480 --> 01:00:19,360
Speaker 3: let's just say not great for him in Austria, like

1210
01:00:19,400 --> 01:00:22,720
Speaker 3: typically they dominate and run through everybody, but they're underlying

1211
01:00:22,800 --> 01:00:24,400
Speaker 3: numbers in Austria are not as good as they have

1212
01:00:24,480 --> 01:00:27,440
Speaker 3: been in years past, so there's just a pass for

1213
01:00:27,520 --> 01:00:28,080
Speaker 3: me at this point.

1214
01:00:28,160 --> 01:00:30,080
Speaker 5: It's just I think it's one of the easier passes

1215
01:00:30,120 --> 01:00:30,520
Speaker 5: on the board.

1216
01:00:32,160 --> 01:00:34,800
Speaker 4: I would say the same Benfica an enter. I think

1217
01:00:35,040 --> 01:00:38,720
Speaker 4: I'd want to bet Inter here, but I don't really

1218
01:00:40,360 --> 01:00:43,520
Speaker 4: have much of an interest. Benfica plus one sixty, Inter

1219
01:00:43,600 --> 01:00:48,080
Speaker 4: plus one seventy, the drives plus two forty, Anthony, you're

1220
01:00:48,120 --> 01:00:51,280
Speaker 4: the only one with a play here, so you can

1221
01:00:51,760 --> 01:00:55,800
Speaker 4: wrap up our marathon episode on Champions League match week five.

1222
01:00:56,320 --> 01:01:00,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, what's the what's the European equivalent of one two

1223
01:01:00,200 --> 01:01:02,800
Speaker 2: three Cancun? Is it like one two three Santorini?

1224
01:01:03,320 --> 01:01:07,440
Speaker 1: What is it? Abitha abitha, abitha.

1225
01:01:07,680 --> 01:01:10,240
Speaker 4: Well, but yeah, then guess for them it'll be like, yeah, exactly,

1226
01:01:10,280 --> 01:01:12,000
Speaker 4: like they want to go to Lisbon, Portugal.

1227
01:01:12,040 --> 01:01:14,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, they want to go to uh pretty sick. Yeah,

1228
01:01:14,640 --> 01:01:16,120
Speaker 1: the Amalfi Coast maybe.

1229
01:01:16,880 --> 01:01:17,080
Speaker 5: Yeah.

1230
01:01:17,240 --> 01:01:19,560
Speaker 2: Well that was Benfica against Osio.

1231
01:01:19,240 --> 01:01:21,000
Speaker 1: And Mary Islands to visit Les Palmas.

1232
01:01:21,200 --> 01:01:24,240
Speaker 2: They yeah, they had one of the worst efforts I've

1233
01:01:24,280 --> 01:01:26,200
Speaker 2: ever seen in the Champions League from a good team

1234
01:01:26,800 --> 01:01:30,480
Speaker 2: in their road match at Sosi DoD Like it was stunning.

1235
01:01:30,640 --> 01:01:33,240
Speaker 2: They just no defense. So how is this total two

1236
01:01:33,240 --> 01:01:36,480
Speaker 2: and a half minus one ten? Because intermight rotate, like

1237
01:01:36,560 --> 01:01:40,000
Speaker 2: they could sit to ram, they could sit Martinez, they

1238
01:01:40,040 --> 01:01:43,600
Speaker 2: could go with like Alexis the ghost of Alexis Sanchez.

1239
01:01:44,200 --> 01:01:47,320
Speaker 2: But the close on the first match was two and

1240
01:01:47,360 --> 01:01:49,760
Speaker 2: a half over minus one seventy, and I thought that

1241
01:01:49,840 --> 01:01:52,640
Speaker 2: was a little high. But like minus one ten, Benfica

1242
01:01:52,640 --> 01:01:54,880
Speaker 2: doesn't play any defense, They're taking all kinds of chances.

1243
01:01:54,920 --> 01:01:57,840
Speaker 2: They still can score a little. I love I love

1244
01:01:57,920 --> 01:01:59,520
Speaker 2: the over two and a half here. I think it's

1245
01:01:59,520 --> 01:02:01,640
Speaker 2: way too low. So yeah, minus went ten over. I

1246
01:02:01,680 --> 01:02:03,120
Speaker 2: think then. You know, we talked at this the end

1247
01:02:03,120 --> 01:02:05,240
Speaker 2: of the season, like totals tend to get pushed up

1248
01:02:05,280 --> 01:02:07,560
Speaker 2: in the market because teams defend less when there's low stakes.

1249
01:02:07,880 --> 01:02:10,240
Speaker 2: I mean, Benfica didn't give a shit last round. I'm

1250
01:02:10,240 --> 01:02:12,200
Speaker 2: not gonna give a shit now either, So I like

1251
01:02:12,240 --> 01:02:13,120
Speaker 2: this over all.

1252
01:02:13,200 --> 01:02:16,520
Speaker 4: Right, that'll do it for Match week five, the penultimate

1253
01:02:16,760 --> 01:02:19,840
Speaker 4: match week of the Champions League group stage matches for

1254
01:02:19,960 --> 01:02:22,760
Speaker 4: b J. Cunningham, Anthony Debundo or not producer Noah, I'm

1255
01:02:22,760 --> 01:02:24,680
Speaker 4: Michael Leeboff. Thank you for listening to Wonder Goal. We

1256
01:02:24,720 --> 01:02:28,360
Speaker 4: will see you again Thursday morning to talk more about

1257
01:02:28,560 --> 01:02:32,880
Speaker 4: the Premier League point deductions and maybe we'll find another

1258
01:02:32,920 --> 01:02:36,440
Speaker 4: motivational spot of the year for you to lose on.

1259
01:02:36,680 --> 01:02:38,200
Speaker 4: Until then, best of luck with all your bets.

1260
01:02:45,840 --> 01:02:50,320
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1261
01:02:50,360 --> 01:02:53,160
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1262
01:02:53,160 --> 01:02:56,280
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler